Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Different Agricultural Products - Corn: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [2] - Oils: Oscillating [2] - Eggs: Oscillating weakly [2] - Pigs: Oscillating [3] 2. Core Views - Corn: This week, the main corn contract reduced positions and adjusted. The funds of the September contract shifted to the January contract. The bearish factor of good weather during the growth period influenced market sentiment, and the corn futures price showed a weak performance. Northeast corn prices remained stable, and the impact of imported corn auctions on the market was relatively limited. In the Northeast production area, there was a small amount of supply, and the downstream trading activity was poor. In North China, corn prices generally showed a stable - to - strong trend. Technically, the September contract rebounded to the previous intensive trading area of 2320 - 2330 yuan/ton this week, but was suppressed by the technical resistance level and then declined again. Short - term attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the 2300 yuan/ton support for the September contract, and a medium - term downward trend is expected [2]. - Soybean Meal: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans closed at the lowest level since April due to favorable crop weather in the US for a bumper harvest and sufficient global supply. Domestic protein meal prices declined as domestic commodities generally fell and funds withdrew from the market. The Sino - US negotiation maintained the suspension of the 24% tariff, but did not mention soybean purchases, which led to concerns about the long - term supply of soybean meal. Strategically, soybean meal is expected to oscillate narrowly, and investors can participate in the 11 - 1 and 1 - 5 positive spreads [2]. - Oils: On Thursday, BMD palm oil prices fell, ending a two - day upward trend. High - frequency data showed that Malaysian palm oil exports in July decreased by 6.7% - 9.6% month - on - month. Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in August, leading to an increase in export tariffs. Domestically, the market sentiment was weak, and the futures prices of oils declined. The decline in the outer market led to a decrease in import costs, which also pressured the prices. The inventory of palm oil was limited, and the inventory of rapeseed oil decreased. The oils market showed a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas, which was conducive to restoring import profits. Strategically, short - term trading is recommended [2]. - Eggs: On Thursday, influenced by surrounding commodities, the egg futures price oscillated and closed down. The spot price of eggs decreased slightly. The short - term fundamental situation was still bearish, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. In the future, as the egg market enters the peak season, demand will have a positive impact on egg prices. However, considering the high inventory and cold - stored eggs, the peak egg price is likely to be lower than that of last year [2][3]. - Pigs: On Thursday, the main pig contract 2509 oscillated during the session and finally closed flat. The spot price of pigs increased slightly. As pig prices continued to adjust, the mentality of farmers to support prices became stronger, and the slaughter volume decreased. The policy provided support for pig prices, so a short - term oscillating trend is expected. Attention should be paid to whether the short - term rebound in spot prices can continue and the impact of market sentiment changes on the futures market after the spot price rebounds [3]. 3. Market Information - Argentina reduced the export tariffs on soybean oil and soybean meal from 31% to 24.5% [4]. - As of July 23, the national average ex - factory price of pigs was 14.78 yuan/kg, a 1.20% decrease from July 16, and the pig - grain ratio was 6.16, a 1.12% decrease from July 16 [4]. - The Indian Vegetable Oil Producers Association (IVPA) stated that Indian vegetable oil importers were increasing palm oil purchases to meet the expected surge in demand during the festival season as global prices declined [4]. - According to the data of the shipping survey agency ITS, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 31 was 1,289,727 tons, a 6.71% decrease compared to the same period last month [4]. - Indonesia set the reference price of crude palm oil (CPO) in August at $910.91 per metric ton, higher than $877.89 in July [4]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange decided to suspend the designated rapeseed oil delivery warehouse business of Sichuan Grain and Oil Wholesale Center Direct - affiliated Reserve Depot Co., Ltd. and Central Reserve Grain Sichuan Xinjin Direct - affiliated Depot Co., Ltd., and resume the rapeseed oil delivery warehouse business of China Grain Reserves (Hefei) Reserve Co., Ltd. It also added Chengdu Grain Group Co., Ltd. as a rapeseed oil delivery warehouse and COFCO Oils (Chengdu) Co., Ltd. as a rapeseed oil delivery factory warehouse [5]. 4. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report presents the 9 - 1 spreads of various agricultural products such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through multiple charts [6][7][9][10][13]. - **Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis of various agricultural products including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through multiple charts [14][15][19][25][27]. 5. Research Team Introduction - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, the leader of the top ten research and investment teams of the Dalian Commodity Exchange. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in the Futures Daily and Securities Times Best Futures Analyst Awards for many years [29]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with more than ten years of futures trading experience. She has also won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in relevant awards for many years [29]. - Kong Hailan, a master of economics, is currently a researcher of the egg and pig industries at Everbright Futures Research Institute [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 4.66% to 6,8280 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 950 yuan/ton to 72,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate fell by 950 yuan/ton to 69,900 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose by 200 yuan/ton to 65,670 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipts were concentrated for cancellation, and the inventory decreased by 7,586 tons to 5,545 tons [3]. - Recently, Australian mining companies have successively disclosed their financial reports, with many companies showing a month - on - month increase in production and sales. Overseas lithium ore supply remains stable and abundant. At the performance interpretation meeting of CATL's semi - annual report, the company's management stated that its lithium ore project is operating normally, and the application materials for the renewal of the mining right have been submitted to provincial and municipal authorities a month ago, and the enterprise is relatively optimistic [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output decreased by 1,362 tons to 17,268 tons, with a significant decline in lithium extraction from mica. In June 2025, China's lithium carbonate import volume was 17,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.3%. On the demand side, the production schedule in July increased slightly month - on - month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month - on - month to about 80,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory decreased by 1,444 tons to 141,726 tons, with an increase in downstream inventory and a decrease in upstream and other links [3]. - There is a game between market sentiment and fundamentals. With low warehouse receipt inventory and high market volatility, opportunities to short volatility in the future market can be considered, and attention should be paid to position management [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract dropped from 70,600 yuan/ton to 68,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,320 yuan/ton; the closing price of the continuous contract decreased from 70,260 yuan/ton to 68,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,260 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) decreased from 776 US dollars/ton to 766 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) decreased from 1,140 yuan/ton to 1,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) decreased from 1,775 yuan/ton to 1,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the price of petalite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) decreased from 5,675 yuan/ton to 5,325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton; the price of petalite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) decreased from 6,625 yuan/ton to 6,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 375 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 950 yuan/ton to 72,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 950 yuan/ton to 69,900 yuan/ton [3][5]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose by 200 yuan/ton to 65,670 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) rose by 200 yuan/ton to 70,820 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose by 200 yuan/ton to 60,570 yuan/ton; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan and South Korea) remained unchanged at 8.28 US dollars/kg [5]. - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: The price remained unchanged at 53,250 yuan/ton [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 2,100 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from - 7,480 yuan/ton to - 6,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,150 yuan/ton; the difference between CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased from - 6,316.85 yuan/ton to - 6,472.97 yuan/ton, a decrease of 156 yuan/ton [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The prices of some ternary precursors and cathode materials changed slightly. For example, the price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) increased by 70 yuan/ton to 75,865 yuan/ton [5]. - **Cells and Batteries**: The prices of most cells and batteries remained stable, with only a few showing minor increases, such as the 523 square ternary cell price increasing by 0.001 yuan/Wh to 0.384 yuan/Wh [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), petalite (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate, average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. from 2024 to 2025 [9][10]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. from 2024 to 2025 [16][17]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [21][22]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][31]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from December 2024 to July 2025 [34][35]. - **Production Costs**: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [38][39].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the daily monitoring of iron ore basis and spread, including contract spreads, basis data, and variety spreads, along with the regulatory changes of iron ore futures deliverable brands. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Contract Spreads - The closing prices of I05, I09, and I01 contracts decreased by 13.5, 10.0, and 12.5 respectively compared to the previous day [3]. - The I05 - I09 spread decreased by 3.5, the I09 - I01 spread increased by 2.5, and the I01 - I05 spread increased by 1.0 [3]. 3.2 Basis - **Data**: The prices of most iron ore varieties decreased compared to the previous day, with the basis of some varieties increasing and others decreasing. For example, the price of Carajás fines decreased by 6.0, and the basis increased by 3 [6]. - **Charts**: The report presents basis charts for different types of iron ore, including Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, Australian low - grade fines, domestic ores, etc. [8][9][10] 3.3 Regulatory Changes of Deliverable Brands - Newly added 4 deliverable varieties: Benxi concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, and Ukrainian concentrate, with a brand premium of 0, effective from the I2202 contract [11]. - Adjusted the brand premiums of existing varieties, with only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines having a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and the rest being 0 [11]. - Modified the quality differences and quality premiums of substitutes, including adjusting the allowable ranges of iron grade and other element indicators and their corresponding quality premiums, and introducing a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the premium of iron element indicators [11]. - Added 4 deliverable brands: Taigang concentrate, Magang concentrate, Minmetals standard fines, and SP10 fines, with a brand premium of 0 [11]. 3.4 Variety Spreads - **Data**: The spreads between different iron ore varieties changed. For example, the PB lump - PB fines spread decreased by 2.0, while the PB fines - mixed fines spread increased by 1.0 [13]. - **Charts**: The report provides charts for different types of variety spreads, such as lump - fines spreads, high - medium grade fines spreads, medium - low grade fines spreads, etc. [14][15][16][18][19]

点评 工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 8 月 1 日） 一、研究观点 工业硅日报 二、日度数据监测 | | 分 项 | | 2025/7/30 | 2025/7/31 | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 工业硅 | | | | | 期货结算价（元/吨） | 主力 | 9345 | 8860 | -485 | | | | 近月 | 9325 | 8920 | -405 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(华东) | 9750 | 9550 | -200 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(黄埔港) | 9800 | 9600 | -200 | | | 不通氧553#现货价格 | 不通氧553#硅(天津港) | 9650 | 9450 | -200 | | | （元/吨） | 不通氧553#硅(昆明) | 9650 | 9650 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(四川) | 9250 | 9150 | -100 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(上海) | 10250 | 10050 | -200 | | | | 通氧553 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper fluctuated weakly, down 1.26% to $9,607/ton; SHFE copper fell 0.55% to 78,010 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import remained in a loss state, but the loss margin narrowed. Core inflation indicators rebounded, intensifying the divergence within the Fed on further interest rate cuts. Trump extended the US - Mexico tariff for 90 days, and China - US negotiations were still ongoing. LME, Comex inventories increased, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. Affected by the off - season, consumption remained weak. Considering the recent macro - factors and inventory accumulation, copper prices are currently considered weak [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. The price of SMM alumina rebounded, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. The export of bauxite from Guinea began to decline during the rainy season, and the domestic short - term ore reserves were relatively sufficient with obvious cost support. The supply is expected to increase after the return of Shunda's mining rights. The electrolytic aluminum supply - demand margin shifted, leading to smooth inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots. The supply of scrap aluminum is expected to be tight in the short term, making it more resistant to price drops compared to electrolytic aluminum [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.89% to $14,950/ton, and SHFE nickel fell to 120,000 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. The price of domestic nickel ore decreased slightly, the transaction price of nickel iron moved up, and the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate increased. In the short term, nickel and stainless - steel prices were affected by market sentiment and weakened, showing a volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper dropped 1.26% to $9,607/ton, SHFE copper fell 0.55% to 78,010 yuan/ton. The US June PCE price index and core PCE were higher than expected, intensifying Fed's divergence on rate cuts. LME and Comex inventories increased, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. Affected by the off - season, consumption was weak. Macro - factors and inventory accumulation made copper prices weak [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. Alumina price rebounded, aluminum ingot spot discount widened. Guinea's bauxite export declined, domestic ore reserves were sufficient with cost support. Supply is expected to increase. Electrolytic aluminum supply - demand shifted, leading to inventory accumulation. Scrap aluminum supply is expected to be tight [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel dropped 0.89% to $14,950/ton, SHFE nickel fell. LME inventory increased, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. Nickel ore price decreased slightly, nickel iron price moved up, battery - grade nickel sulfate price increased. Short - term prices were affected by sentiment and showed volatility [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased, and the inventory in different regions changed. LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased, COMEX inventory increased, and social inventory increased [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased, and the inventory in the LME remained unchanged while the SHFE inventory increased [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in different regions decreased, the inventory in the LME remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged, and the alumina inventory decreased [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased, the inventory in the LME remained unchanged, and the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. The social inventory of nickel decreased [5]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算价 decreased, the LmeS3 price remained unchanged, and the inventory in the LME remained unchanged while the SHFE inventory increased [6]. - **Tin**: The主力结算价 decreased, the LmeS3 price decreased, and the inventory in the LME remained unchanged while the SHFE inventory increased [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [7][8][10]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second - continuous contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [15][17][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [28][30][32]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series steel [34][36][38]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate [41][43][45]. 3.4 Non - Research Content - **Team Introduction**: The report introduced the members of the non - ferrous metals team, including Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, along with their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional achievements [47][48][49].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to undergo weak consolidation. The decline in rebar prices, combined with weak demand during the off - season and low supply, along with uncertainties in anti - cut - throat competition policies, contribute to this outlook [1]. - Iron ore prices are predicted to show oscillatory consolidation. Fluctuations in supply and demand, along with uncertainties in anti - cut - throat competition sentiment and potential parade - related production restrictions, influence this forecast [1]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to experience wide - range oscillations. Factors such as changes in supply and demand, cost fluctuations, and market participant sentiment contribute to this prediction [1]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are expected to mainly show wide - range oscillations. Market sentiment fluctuations, along with limited impacts on supply and demand from anti - cut - throat competition policies, are the main drivers [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Viewpoints - **Steel (Rebar)**: The rebar futures price decreased significantly. The 2510 contract closed at 3205 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton (3.32%) from the previous trading day, with a reduction of 146,000 lots in positions. Spot prices also dropped, and trading volume declined. Production slightly decreased, inventory increased marginally, and apparent demand fell. With weak off - season demand and low supply, and uncertainties in anti - cut - throat competition policies, the short - term rebar futures market is expected to be in a weak consolidation state [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract i2509 decreased to 779 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (1.27%) from the previous day, with a trading volume of 330,000 lots and a reduction of 33,000 lots in positions. Global iron ore shipments increased slightly. Iron production decreased, and port inventory decreased while steel mill inventory increased. Due to uncertainties in anti - cut - throat competition sentiment and potential parade - related production restrictions, the short - term iron ore price is expected to show oscillatory consolidation [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price dropped. The 2509 contract closed at 1045.5 yuan/ton, down 71.5 yuan/ton (6.4%), with a reduction of 23,096 lots in positions. The spot price in Lvliang increased, while the Mongolian coal market was weak. With upstream inventory at a reasonable level, production resuming, and changes in market sentiment due to cost increases and regulatory measures, the short - term coking coal futures market is expected to have wide - range oscillations [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures price decreased. The 2509 contract closed at 1601 yuan/ton, down 75.5 yuan/ton (4.5%), with a reduction of 653 lots in positions. The spot price at Rizhao Port declined. After the fourth price increase, coking enterprises are still in a loss - making state. With weakening steel demand and inventory accumulation, the short - term coke futures market is expected to have wide - range oscillations [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price oscillated weakly. The main contract closed at 5946 yuan/ton, down 4.44% from the previous day, with a reduction of 35,030 lots in positions. Spot prices in some regions decreased. Market sentiment fluctuations and the lack of significant impacts on supply and demand from anti - cut - throat competition policies, along with increased production willingness and strong cost support, suggest that the short - term market will mainly show wide - range oscillations [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price oscillated weakly. The main contract closed at 5696 yuan/ton, down 6.62% from the previous day, with a reduction of 27,248 lots in positions. Spot prices in some regions decreased. With the cooling of anti - cut - throat competition sentiment, limited impacts on supply and demand, and increased production and inventory, the short - term market is expected to mainly show wide - range oscillations [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: The report provides the latest contract spreads (such as 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month) and basis data for various commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, along with their changes compared to the previous period [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: Information on profits (such as rebar's on - screen profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) is presented, along with their changes compared to the previous period [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the historical closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][8][10][11][12][14][15]. - **3.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the historical basis data of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][21][23]. - **3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts present the historical inter - period contract spreads (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][31][34][35][38]. - **3.4 Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: Charts show the historical inter - commodity contract spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) of various commodities [40][42][44]. - **3.5 Rebar Profits**: Charts display the historical on - screen profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of the rebar main contract [45][46][49]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, professional qualifications, and relevant honors [52][53].

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-08-01 | 计算机 国防军工 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 传媒 美容护理 | | | | | | | | 轻工制造 | | | | | | | | 石油石化 | | | | | | | | 建筑材料 建筑装饰 | | | | | | | | 煤炭 纺织服饰 | | | | | | | | 商贸零售 农林牧渔 | | | | | | | | 医药生物 | | | | | | | | 机械设备 食品饮料 | | | | | | | | 公用事业 | | | | | | | | 交通运输 | | | | | | | | 电力设备 | | | | | | | | 基础化工 | | | | | | | | 通信 综合 钢铁 银行 汽车 电子 环保 房地产 家用电器 社会服务 非银金融 有色金属 | -8 -10 | -6 | -4 | 0 -2 | 2 | 4 | 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 图 4：中证 500 各板块对指数贡献的涨跌点数 -15 -10 -5 0 5 计算机 通信 纺织 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities (crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, polyvinyl chloride) are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][3][5][7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy - chemical commodities on August 1, 2025. It takes into account factors such as price changes, trade agreements, production data, and supply - demand relationships. Overall, most commodities are expected to show an oscillating trend, with specific trends affected by factors like tariffs, production capacity utilization, and downstream demand [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices declined. WTI 9 - month contract fell by $0.74 to $69.26 per barrel, a 1.06% drop; Brent 9 - month contract dropped by $0.71 to $72.53 per barrel, a 0.97% decline; SC2509 closed at 528.2 yuan per barrel, down 3.8 yuan or 0.71%. Trade agreements and potential sanctions may affect future oil demand, and the price is expected to oscillate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contracts of high - sulfur (FU2509) and low - sulfur (LU2510) fuel oil declined. The overall supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is sufficient, while high - sulfur fuel oil faces supply pressure. If oil prices stabilize, the absolute prices of FU and LU may rebound. The LU - FU spread has rebounded from a low level [2] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract (BU2509) rose. The supply is expected to increase, but the increment is limited. The demand is affected by precipitation, but there is positive support after the rainy season. The spot price is relatively firm, and short - term long positions can be considered after oil price stabilization [2] - **Polyester**: TA509 and EG2509 prices fell on Thursday. Some production facilities had temporary shutdowns and restarts. With cost support from the peak oil demand season, increased supply, and resilient downstream demand, polyester prices are expected to oscillate [3] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the prices of various rubber contracts declined. In June, global natural rubber production decreased by 1.5% to 1191,000 tons, while consumption increased by 0.7% to 1271,000 tons. With increased rainfall in domestic production areas and improved downstream tire production and sales, rubber prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [3][5] - **Methanol**: After the Iranian device load returned to a high level and the arrival volume increased, the downstream profit and start - up remained stable, and inventory continued to increase. Methanol prices are expected to enter an oscillating phase after valuation repair [5] - **Polyolefin**: Polyolefin will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and demand. As long as the cost does not drop significantly, the downside space is limited [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The supply of PVC remains high - level oscillating, demand is gradually recovering, and the supply - demand gap is narrowing with slow inventory decline. The basis and monthly spread have widened, and short - selling power may recover [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis of various energy - chemical commodities on August 1, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared to the previous day [8] 3.3 Market News - Trump announced a 90 - day extension of the trade agreement with Mexico, with Mexico continuing to pay certain tariffs. Market analysts believe these tariffs are unfavorable to future oil demand [10] - On July 31, the EIA data showed that US crude oil production in May reached a record high of 13.49 million barrels per day. OPEC members have accelerated production increases since May, which may lead to market supply surplus [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical commodities from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [13][14][15] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various commodities, such as the basis of crude oil, fuel oil, etc., and their changes over time [29][30][33] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various commodities, like fuel oil, asphalt, etc., including the spreads between different months [44][45][46] 3.4.4 Inter - commodity Spreads - It presents the spread and ratio charts between different commodities, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of asphalt to crude oil, etc. [65][66][67] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of some commodities, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [69][74] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, awards, and professional experiences [76][77][78] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor, Unit 703, No. 729, Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, fax is 021 - 80212200, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, with a postal code of 200127 [81]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided for the industry in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For stock index futures, the A - share market oscillated and pulled back yesterday, with the Wind All - A down 1.36% and a trading volume of 1.87 trillion yuan. The implementation of the parenting subsidy system is expected to boost inflation. The recent stock market rise is due to long - term expectations of fiscal policy shift and inflation recovery, mid - term anti - involution and infrastructure demand, and short - term capital inflows. The market is currently divided, and investors should wait for clearer policies and trends before adjusting positions [1]. - For treasury bond futures, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 0.57%, 0.17%, 0.08%, and 0.01% respectively. After the anti - involution policy expectations, the bond market is expected to have a repair market, and short - term treasury bonds may stop falling and stabilize [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Yesterday, the A - share market declined, with the CSI 1000 down 0.85%, CSI 500 down 1.4%, SSE 50 down 1.54%, and SSE 300 down 1.82%. The parenting subsidy system is expected to boost inflation. The long - term logic is the shift of fiscal policy and inflation recovery; the mid - term is anti - involution and infrastructure; the short - term is capital inflows. The market is divided, and position adjustment should wait for clarity [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose. The central bank conducted 2832 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 478 billion yuan. After the anti - involution policy expectations, the bond market may have a repair market [3]. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: IH decreased by 1.52%, IF by 1.92%, IC by 1.47%, and IM by 1.00%. The corresponding stock indexes also declined, with the SSE 50 down 1.54%, SSE 300 down 1.82%, CSI 500 down 1.40%, and CSI 1000 down 0.85% [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS rose by 0.02%, TF by 0.09%, T by 0.17%, and TL by 0.64% [4]. Market News - In July, affected by the traditional production off - season and natural disasters, the PMI dropped to 49.3%. The production index remained in expansion, but market demand slowed down [5]. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: Charts show the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts and related stock indexes [7][9][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Charts display the trends, basis, spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures [14][17][19]. - **Exchange Rates**: Charts present the exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen against the RMB, including spot and forward rates [22][23][26]. Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master in economics from Jilin University, is the director of the macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute [29]. - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, focuses on stock index futures research [29].

农产品日报（2025 年 7 月 31 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周三，玉米主力合约减仓调整，9 | 月合约资金向 | 1 | 月转移，1 | 月是新玉米集中上 | 市期，生长期天气良好的利空因素左右市场情绪，玉米期价呈现偏弱表现。东北 | | | | | | | 玉米价格仍以平稳为主，进口玉米拍卖但对市场的影响已相对有限。东北产区目 | 前能零星上量，下游购销活跃度偏差，对市场的支撑也稍显一般。中美双方将继 | | | | | | | | | | | 续推动已暂停的美方对等关税 | 24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期 | 90 | 天，关税 | 较前期暂无变化。华北地区玉米价格整体稳中偏强运行。山东深加工企业早间剩 | | | | | | | | 玉米 | 震荡偏弱 | 余车辆继续减少，部分企业价格窄幅上调 | 10-20 | 元/吨。河北、河南深加工企业 | 玉米价格维持稳定。基层余粮不多，但大部分人看涨预期 ...