黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面大幅上涨，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3123 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 上涨 60 元/吨，持仓增加 5.51 万手。现货价格上涨，成交回升，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格上涨 40 元/吨至 | 震荡偏强 | | | 2950 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 40 元/吨至 3180 元/吨，全国建材成交量 11.5 万吨。据我的钢铁 | | | | 统计，本周全国螺纹产量环比回落 4.42 万吨至 216.66 万吨，同比减少 10.56 万吨；社库环比回落 5.25 万 | | | | 吨至 359.49 万吨，同比减少 225.04 万吨；厂库环比回升 0.41 万吨至 180.88 万吨，同比减少 13.13 万吨； | | | | 螺纹表需回落 3.37 万吨至 221.5 万吨，同比减少 13.78 万吨。螺纹产量有所回落，库存继续小幅下降，表 | | | | 需小幅回落，数据表现中性偏强。目前螺纹现货处 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents a daily monitoring of iron ore basis and spreads, including futures contract prices, basis data, and variety spreads, along with related charts, and also details the adjustments to iron ore futures deliverable brands and rules [3][6][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contracts - The closing prices of I05, I09, and I01 contracts increased by 24.0, 27.0, and 25.5 respectively compared to the previous day. The spreads between I05 - I09, I09 - I01, and I01 - I05 also changed, with variations of -3.0, 1.5, and 1.5 respectively [3]. Basis - **Data**: The prices of various iron ore varieties such as Carajás fines, BRBF, and Newman fines increased compared to the previous day, while the basis for most varieties decreased, except for Jinbuba fines 61% which increased by 4 [6]. - **Charts**: Multiple charts show the basis trends of different iron ore varieties over time, including Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, etc. [8][9][10]. Adjustments to Deliverable Brands - Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian concentrate) were added, and the brand premiums for all of them are 0, effective from the I2202 contract. The brand premiums of existing varieties were adjusted, with only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines having a premium of 15 yuan/ton, and the rest being 0. The quality differences and premiums of substitutes were also modified, and the allowable range of iron grade was adjusted to ≥56%. Four more varieties (Taigang concentrate, Magang concentrate, Wugang standard fines, SP10 fines) were added as deliverable brands, with brand premiums of 0, applicable to contracts after I2312 [11]. Variety Spreads - **Data**: The spreads between different iron ore varieties changed. For example, the spread between PB lump and PB fines decreased by 2.0, while the spread between PB fines and mixed fines increased by 7.0 [13]. - **Charts**: Multiple charts display the spread trends between different iron ore varieties, such as lump - powder spreads, high - medium grade powder spreads, etc. [14][15][17][19][20][21]. Research Team - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and relevant qualifications in the steel and futures industries [24].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - All varieties (corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and hogs) are rated as "sideways" or "sideways - weak" [1][2] Group 2: Core Views - Corn futures ended with a small doji star with an upper shadow. After two - month position - reduction adjustment, the position of the weighted contract increased. The spot price in the Northeast decreased by about 20 yuan/ton this week. The price is expected to fluctuate around 2320 - 2330 yuan, and may move towards the 2200 range if the support is invalid [1] - CBOT soybeans rebounded from a three - month low. The USDA is expected to raise the inventory estimates of US soybeans in 24/25 and 25/26. Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to be 1193 tons, up 24% year - on - year. Domestically, protein meal stabilized due to improved macro sentiment, but the spot market was weak. Short - term unilateral participation is recommended, and long 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 spreads of soybean meal are advised to be held [1] - BMD palm oil declined due to a bearish MPOB report. Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 10.52% month - on - month in June, while inventory increased by 2.41%. Domestically, palm oil futures fell, while soybean and rapeseed oils rose. Oils are expected to move sideways, and intraday trading is recommended [1] - Egg futures hit a new low and then rebounded. The spot price was mostly stable. After the plum - rain season, demand is expected to boost egg prices, but the high is expected to be lower than last year [1][2] - Hog futures fluctuated narrowly and rebounded at the end. The spot price decreased slightly. Pig prices are under pressure but also have support, and are expected to move sideways in the short term [2] Group 3: Market Information - US 2024/2025 soybean export net sales were 50.3 tons in the week ending July 3, up 9% from the previous week. 2025/2026 net sales were 24.8 tons. Exports to China were zero in both years [3] - CONAB expects Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to reach 1.694879 billion tons, up 14.7% year - on - year and down 0.1% month - on - month [4] - MPOB data shows that Malaysian palm oil exports in June were 1259354 tons, down 10.52% month - on - month; production was 1692310 tons, down 4.48% month - on - month; inventory was 2030580 tons, up 2.41% month - on - month [1][4] Group 4: Variety Spreads - Contract spreads are presented for corn 9 - 1, corn starch 9 - 1, soybeans 9 - 1, soybean meal 9 - 1, soybean oil 9 - 1, palm oil 9 - 1, eggs 9 - 1, and hogs 9 - 1 [5][6][8][9][13] - Contract basis is presented for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and hogs [14][15][19][20][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][3][5][6][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices declined. OPEC lowered its oil demand growth forecast. OPEC+ is discussing a pause in further production increases from October, which may signal an oversupply risk after the peak demand period. Currently, oil prices are mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to US tariff policies and OPEC+'s actual production increase. The weekly oil price center has slightly risen [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, fuel oil futures prices fell. Singapore and Fujeirah's fuel oil inventories increased. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is expected to be tight, while high - sulfur fuel oil is under supply pressure. The short - term single - side drivers are not obvious, and it mainly follows the cost - side crude oil to fluctuate within a range [1][3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, asphalt futures prices rose. This week, domestic asphalt shipments increased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises increased. The impact of the consumption tax deduction policy adjustment is not obvious, with supply remaining stable and increasing, and demand slowly recovering in the south but hindered by rainfall in the north. The short - term single - side drivers are not obvious, and it mainly follows the cost - side crude oil to fluctuate within a range [3] - **Polyester**: On Thursday, polyester futures prices rose. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. Some polyester, PTA, and PX devices have restarted or are in the process of restarting. TA spot basis has loosened, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in the future. There is a strong expectation of ethylene glycol inventory accumulation in the third quarter, and its price is expected to be under pressure [3][5] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, rubber futures prices rose. Indonesia's natural rubber exports increased, while Malaysia's decreased. Domestic tire enterprise start - up loads have recovered, but semi - steel high inventory suppresses start - up. Rubber raw material prices have loosened, and inventory has slightly increased. The fundamentals' contradictions are weak, and rubber prices are expected to be volatile [5] - **Methanol**: On Thursday, methanol prices showed different trends in different regions. Iranian device production is gradually recovering, and although the short - term arrival volume is not large, the long - term arrival volume will increase. The short - term supply shortage situation has eased, the basis has declined, and the price has returned to a volatile trend [6] - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, polyolefin prices showed different trends. The upstream is still in the maintenance season, with little change in overall supply. Demand has declined with the arrival of the off - season, and enterprises purchase on demand. The fundamentals have not improved significantly, but the overall contradictions are not large, the total inventory is slowly decreasing, and the price center moves with cost changes. With the current low volatility of crude oil, polyolefin prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, PVC market prices in East, North, and South China increased. Recently, chlor - alkali profits have declined, and enterprise start - up has decreased. Although demand has not improved significantly, the fundamentals have not deteriorated. As the basis and monthly spread structure change slowly, the arbitrage and hedging space is gradually narrowing. Before the market provides obvious opportunities, short - selling is not recommended, and attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies [7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on July 10th and 9th, as well as the latest basis rate's quantile in historical data [9] 3.2 Market News - The US will impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods starting from August 1st, and Brazil will negotiate with the US and may take counter - measures if necessary [13] - OPEC+ is discussing a pause in further production increases from October, which may be interpreted as a signal that the market cannot absorb more supply, and there may be an oversupply risk after the peak demand period [13] 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and p - xylene [15][17][19][21][23][25] 3.3.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [28][30][34][35][36][39][40] 3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [42][44][47][50][53][54][57] 3.3.4 Inter - variety Spreads - The report shows the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, including crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [59][63][64][66] 3.3.5 Production Profits - The report presents the production profit charts of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [67][68][70] 3.4 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including the assistant director and energy and chemical director Zhong Meiyan, crude oil and related product analyst Du Bingqin, natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, along with their educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences [73][74][75][76]

1. Index Trends - On July 10th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.48% to close at 3509.68 points, with a trading volume of 613.161 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.47% to close at 10631.13 points, with a trading volume of 880.987 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose by 0.25%, with a trading volume of 296.726 billion yuan, an opening price of 6385.21, a closing price of 6406.57, a daily high of 6427.74, and a daily low of 6367.66 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose by 0.5%, with a trading volume of 207.637 billion yuan, an opening price of 5950.97, a closing price of 5983.05, a daily high of 6000.69, and a daily low of 5942.29 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose by 0.62%, with a trading volume of 98.729 billion yuan, an opening price of 2739.23, a closing price of 2756.93, a daily high of 2777.42, and a daily low of 2739.23 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 16.1 points from the previous closing price. Sectors such as Medicine and Biology, Non - ferrous Metals, and Real Estate significantly pulled the index up, while sectors like Machinery and Equipment, and Computer pulled it down [3]. - The CSI 500 rose 29.56 points from the previous closing price. Non - Banking Finance, Non - ferrous Metals, and Medicine and Biology sectors significantly pulled the index up, while the Electronics sector pulled it down [3]. - The SSE 300 rose 18.62 points from the previous closing price. Banking, Non - Banking Finance, and Power Equipment sectors significantly pulled the index up [3]. - The SSE 50 rose 17.01 points from the previous closing price. Banking and Non - Banking Finance sectors significantly pulled the index up [3]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 27.43, IM01 had - 99.5, IM02 had - 173.59, and IM03 had - 358.9 [14]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 19.8, IC01 had - 75.93, IC02 had - 127.74, and IC03 had - 250.87 [14]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 14.28, IF01 had - 30.93, IF02 had - 39.68, and IF03 had - 72.69 [14]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 13.74, IH01 had - 18.62, IH02 had - 19.15, and IH03 had - 19.03 [14]. 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points (e.g., 09:45, 10:00, etc.) are provided, including values such as IM00 - 01, IM00 - 02, etc. [24]. - For IC contracts, similar data on roll - over point differences and annualized costs at different time points are presented, like IC00 - 01, IC00 - 02, etc. [26]. - For IF contracts, data on roll - over point differences and annualized costs at various time points are given, such as IF00 - 01, IF00 - 02, etc. [26]. - For IH contracts, data on roll - over point differences and annualized costs at different time points are shown, including IH00 - 01, IH00 - 02, etc. [28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Corn: The corn market is expected to be volatile and weak. The 9 - 1 spread is rapidly shrinking, and if the support is ineffective, the futures price may approach the 2200 range. Attention should be paid to the auction and transaction of imported corn [1]. - Soybean Meal: The soybean meal market is expected to be volatile and weak. Due to concerns about tariff disputes and the upcoming USDA reports, the market lacks clear guidance, and the funds' attention has declined. Short - term unilateral participation and holding 91, 15 positive spreads are recommended [1]. - Edible Oils: The edible oil market is expected to be volatile and weak. The palm oil has led the rise, but the supply of domestic edible oils is generally loose, and the weak demand suppresses the spot market. Unilateral intraday trading is recommended [1]. - Eggs: The egg market is expected to be volatile. With the approach of the peak demand season after the plum - rain season, the demand will boost the egg price, but considering the supply pressure, the peak price is expected to be lower than last year. Attention should be paid to whether the futures market stabilizes [1][2]. - Pigs: The pig market is expected to be volatile. The pig price is under pressure but also has support. Short - term volatility is expected, and attention should be paid to the impact of the feed end and market sentiment on the futures price [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: On Wednesday, the corn futures closed with a doji. The 9 - month contract fell to a low of 2310 and then rebounded. The weighted contract's position increased after two months of reduction. The spot price was under pressure due to imported corn auctions. In the Northeast, the purchase price of deep - processing enterprises decreased, and in the North China, the price was weak. The sales area price remained firm. The China National Grain Reserves Corporation will continue the imported corn auction in mid - July [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean fell for the third consecutive day. Concerns about tariff disputes led to fund selling. The market is waiting for the export sales report and the USDA 7 - month supply - demand report. Domestically, the protein meal fluctuated narrowly, the spot market was weak, and the import cost decreased [1]. - **Edible Oils**: The BMD palm oil rose for three consecutive days, but the weak CBOT soybean oil limited its upside. The Canadian rapeseed fell more than 3% due to technical selling. The MPOB will release the supply - demand report. Domestically, the palm oil led the rise, but the soybean oil and rapeseed oil were relatively weak, and the overall supply was loose [1]. - **Eggs**: On Wednesday, the egg futures rebounded in the afternoon. The spot price was stable, and with the approach of the peak demand season, the demand will support the price, but the supply pressure exists [1][2]. - **Pigs**: On Wednesday, the pig futures fluctuated and adjusted. The spot price was relatively stable. The northern market had price declines due to sales pressure, while the southern market had price support due to farmers' price - holding actions [2]. Market Information - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: BMI predicts that the Malaysian palm oil production will partially recover in the 2025/26 season, with a year - on - year increase of 0.5% to 19.5 million tons. However, the domestic consumption will decrease by 2% to 38 million tons due to slow biofuel target progress and stricter waste cooking oil trade restrictions [3]. - **Soybean Crushing Profit**: According to the National Grain and Oil Information Center, the spot crushing profit of 8 - 9 month - shipping soybeans in South China is - 40 - 10 yuan/ton. The purchase of 8 - month - shipping soybeans is basically completed, over 60% of the 9 - month - shipping soybeans have been purchased, and there are no purchases for the 10 - 1 month - shipping soybeans [3]. - **USDA Report Forecasts**: Reuters' analysts predict that Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production is 169.25 million tons, the US 2025/26 soybean production is 4.334 billion bushels with a yield of 52.5 bushels/acre, the global 2025/26 soybean ending inventory is 126.31 million tons, the global 2025/26 corn ending inventory is 277.46 million tons, and the global 2025/26 wheat ending inventory is 262.69 million tons [3][4]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report presents the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through charts, but no specific data analysis is provided [5][6][8][9][13]. - **Contract Basis**: The report presents the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through charts, but no specific data analysis is provided [14][15][19][25][26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On July 9, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.16% to 64,400 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 400 yuan/ton to 63,300 yuan/ton, and that of industrial-grade lithium carbonate also rose by 400 yuan/ton to 61,700 yuan/ton. The price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 57,420 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 626 tons to 13,281 tons [3]. - In July, the production of lithium carbonate is expected to increase 3.9% month-on-month to 81,150 tons. However, due to maintenance and technological upgrades of some upstream enterprises, the weekly production has slowed down, which may lead to a certain downward adjustment of the expected output. In terms of imports, the exports of lithium salts from Chile were basically flat from May to June, and the overall imports of lithium carbonate in July are expected to change little month-on-month. On the demand side, the production schedule in July increased slightly month-on-month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month-on-month to about 80,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory continued to accumulate, and currently the inventory of lithium salts and lithium ore is high, approximately equivalent to 380,000 tons of LCE according to Steel Union data [3]. - Currently, the overall market sentiment has warmed up, the warehouse receipts are at a low level, the transaction price of lithium ore has increased, lithium salt plants have announced production suspension, maintenance, and technological upgrades, and there are many disturbances in the market news, which have short-term stimulated the price increase. However, the warehouse receipt inventory increased slightly on July 9, and the pressure level of 65,000 yuan/ton needs to be monitored. In the future, hedging pressure will also follow. As of now, there are no signs of production suspension or reduction at the mine end, and the social inventory of lithium ore and lithium salts is relatively high. Therefore, short-selling opportunities after the sentiment turns can still be considered. If the warehouse receipt inventory remains at a low level, it may hinder the smooth decline of prices, and the price may show a wide - range oscillation pattern [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - The price of lithium carbonate futures and spot prices changed on July 9, 2025, and the warehouse receipt inventory increased [3]. - The supply, demand, and inventory situations of lithium carbonate in July are analyzed, including production, imports, consumption, and inventory accumulation [3]. - The short - term and long - term price trends of lithium carbonate are predicted, and attention points and potential trading opportunities are proposed [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The prices of various products in the lithium - battery industry chain on July 9, 2025, are presented, including futures, lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other related products, along with their price changes compared with the previous day [5]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%, 2.0% - 2.5%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8] 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][13] 3.3 Spreads - Charts illustrate the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant spreads from 2024 to 2025 [18][19] 3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [22][25] 3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][32] 3.6 Inventory - Charts show the weekly inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from November 2024 to July 2025 [35][37] 3.7 Production Costs - A chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [39][40] 4. Colored Research Team Member Introduction - The team members include Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, along with their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional qualifications [43][44] 5. Contact Information - The company's address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code are provided [47]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Iron Ore: Oscillating [1] - Coking Coal: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Coke: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Manganese Silicon: Oscillating [3] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures market continued its narrow - range oscillation. Production decreased, inventory slightly accumulated, and apparent demand declined. With the expectation of crude steel production cuts, the short - term futures market is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [1] - Iron Ore: The futures price rose slightly. After the end - of - quarter rush, global shipments decreased, and iron - making water production is expected to decline further. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [1] - Coking Coal: The futures price rose. Supply is gradually recovering, and demand remains stable. With some market participants having policy expectations, the short - term futures market is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [1] - Coke: The futures price rose. Coking enterprises' production is at a loss, and inventory has decreased. With steel prices oscillating upward and market sentiment optimistic, the short - term futures market is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [1] - Manganese Silicon: The futures price oscillated upward. The market sentiment was boosted, and steel tenders started. The supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [3] - Ferrosilicon: The futures price oscillated upward. The market sentiment was boosted, and steel tenders started. Supply - demand has slightly improved, but the short - term price is expected to oscillate [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory Research Views - Steel: The closing price of rebar 2510 contract was 3063 yuan/ton, with an increase in positions. Spot prices were stable, and trading volume declined. National building materials production decreased by 14.27 tons to 416.01 tons, social inventory increased by 9.05 tons to 530 tons, factory inventory decreased by 2.51 tons to 316.13 tons, and apparent demand decreased by 24.46 tons to 409.47 tons. Shanxi steel mills received a notice of 10% - 30% crude steel production cuts [1] - Iron Ore: The closing price of the i2509 contract was 736.5 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.3%. Port spot prices rose. After the end - of - quarter rush, global shipments decreased, and iron - making water production is expected to decline further [1] - Coking Coal: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 871.5 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton or 3.32%. Spot prices in some areas rose. Supply is gradually recovering, and demand remains stable [1] - Coke: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 1456 yuan/ton, up 31.5 yuan/ton or 2.21%. Port spot prices rose. Coking enterprises' production is at a loss, and inventory has decreased [1] - Manganese Silicon: The closing price of the main contract was 5718 yuan/ton, up 1.28%. The main contract positions decreased by 7292 to 37.06 million. Spot prices in some areas rose. Steel tenders started, with an increase in quantity and a decrease in the initial inquiry price [3] - Ferrosilicon: The closing price of the main contract was 5392 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. The main contract positions increased by 621 to 19.13 million. Spot prices in some areas changed. Steel tenders started, with an increase in quantity. Supply - demand has slightly improved [3] Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads: For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 24.0, down 4.0; the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore was 26.5, up 0.5 [4] - Basis: For example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar was 97.0, up 10.0; the basis of the 09 - contract of iron ore was 31.0, down 1.3 [4] - Spot: For example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3160.0, up 10.0; the spot price of PB powder was 725.0, up 2.0 [4] - Profit and Spread: For example, the rebar futures profit was 76.8, down 21.5; the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 127.0, down 1.0 [4] Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][8][10][11][12][15] - Main Contract Basis: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][21][23] - Inter - period Contract Spreads: There are charts showing the spreads of inter - period contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][27][29][32][34][35][38] - Inter - variety Contract Spreads: There are charts showing the spreads of inter - variety contracts such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc. [40][41][42][43] - Rebar Profit: There are charts showing the futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar [45][46][48][49] Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52] - Zhang Xiaojin: Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the futures industry [52] - Liu Xi: Black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis [52] - Zhang Chunjie: Black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [53]

有色商品日报 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡偏弱，下跌 0.05%至 9660 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力下跌 0.74%至 78330 | | | 元/吨；国内现货铜进口亏损收窄。宏观方面，美联储公布的最新 6 月会议纪要显 | | | 示，官员们对利率前景的分歧日益显现，主要源于他们对关税可能如何影响通胀的预 | | | 期不同，与会者认为在贸易政策及其他政府政策和地缘政治风险不断演变背景下，经 | | | 济前景的不确定性依然较高，但相较前次会议整体不确定性已有所减弱。市场对美联 | | | 储年内首次降息依然在 9 月，6 月和 7 月是重要的通胀和经济关注窗口。昨晚特朗普 | | | 发出第二波关税函，征收 20%~50%的不等关税，其中对巴西征收 50%关税，市场仍在 | | | 关注美国对主要经济体征收关税程度。国内方面，中国 6 月 CPI 同比涨 0.1%，核心 | | 铜 | CPI 涨幅创 14 个月新高，PPI 同比降幅扩大至 3.6%。库存方面来看，LME 库存增加 | | | 4625 吨至 107125 吨；Comex 库存增加 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: On Wednesday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.5% to 67.72 cents per pound, and CF509 rose 0.51% to 13,830 yuan per ton, with the main - contract positions increasing by 3,515 to 546,800. In the international market, the overall drivers are limited recently, and the U.S. cotton planted area exceeds expectations with good growth. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton showed a V - shaped trend and closed slightly higher. Considering low imports, low inventories, and weather disturbances on the one hand, and new - cotton high - yield expectations and weak demand during the off - season on the other hand, short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to remain range - bound, with the 09 contract likely to perform better than 01 [2]. - **Sugar**: Platts expects a 9.7% year - on - year decrease in sugarcane crushing in Brazil's central - southern region in the second half of June, and a 9.8% decrease in sugar production. In the domestic market, Yunnan sugar is accelerating inventory clearance. The spot price of sugar has some adjustments, and the futures price of raw sugar rebounded due to the expected decline in Brazil's bi - weekly production. The market should focus on the 9 - 1 reverse spread opportunity [2]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: The international market has limited drivers, with the U.S. cotton planted area exceeding expectations and good growth. The domestic market has both upward and downward drivers but with limited strength. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to range - bound, and the 09 contract may be better than 01 [2]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugarcane crushing and sugar production are expected to decline. In the domestic market, Yunnan sugar is clearing inventory, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 1 reverse spread opportunity [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 45 yuan, up 20 yuan; the main - contract basis is 1,354 yuan, down 54 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,163 yuan per ton, down 12 yuan, and the national spot price is 15,184 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 164 yuan, up 9 yuan; the main - contract basis is 296 yuan, down 37 yuan. The Nanning spot price is 6,040 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6,075 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan [3]. 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On July 9, the cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 39 to 9,932, and the effective forecasts were 266. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were reported, and the yarn and short - fiber cloth loads and inventories also had corresponding changes [4]. - **Sugar**: On July 9, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou changed, and the sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 105 to 22,987, with 106 effective forecasts [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including closing prices, basis, contract spreads, warehouse receipts, and price indices, with data from 2021 - 2025 [7][15]