Group 1: Report's Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [1] - Sugar: Slightly Bearish [1] Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: ICE U.S. cotton prices decreased slightly due to weak overall drivers and macro - level disturbances. The U.S. dollar index rebounded, and future attention should be paid to the weather in the main U.S. cotton - producing areas. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices weakened. New cotton is growing normally and is expected to have a good harvest, with low - level but non - short - term - shortage concerns for old cotton inventory. Demand is relatively stable, and textile enterprise inventories increased slightly. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate in the current range, and future attention should be paid to international situations, domestic policies, and weather [1]. - Sugar: Brazil's sugar exports in the first four weeks of May decreased by 23.15% year - on - year. The spot price of sugar decreased slightly, and the raw sugar price tested the support at 17 cents/pound. Domestic spot trading was average, with concerns about future imports. However, due to good domestic sales progress, the basis was strong, supporting the futures price. The sugar price is expected to slowly decline, and future sales progress and imports should be monitored [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Cotton: ICE U.S. cotton dropped 0.8% to 65.58 cents/pound, and CF509 fell 0.37% to 13,330 yuan/ton. The main - contract positions decreased by 10,377 hands to 565,100 hands. Xinjiang's cotton arrival price was 14,485 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton, and the China Cotton Price Index 3128B was 14,595 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [1]. - Sugar: Brazil exported 1572,300 tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of May, a 23.15% decrease year - on - year. The average daily export was 98,200 tons. Guangxi's sugar - making group quoted 6100 - 6190 yuan/ton, with some prices down 10 yuan/ton, and Yunnan's group quoted 5890 - 5930 yuan/ton, also with some prices down 10 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 7 - 9 spread was - 215, unchanged; the main - contract basis was 1265, up 44. Xinjiang's spot price was 14,485 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton, and the national price was 14,595 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [2]. - Sugar: The 7 - 9 spread was 89, up 1; the main - contract basis was 319, down 6. Nanning's spot price was 6155 yuan/ton, unchanged, and Liuzhou's was 6160 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3. Market Information - Cotton: On May 27, the cotton futures warehouse receipts were 11,260, down 83, with 348 valid forecasts. Cotton arrival prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 14,485 yuan/ton, Henan 14,651 yuan/ton, Shandong 14,600 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang 14,817 yuan/ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 55.3, unchanged; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 23.6, up 0.1. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 52.6, down 0.2; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 30.9, up 0.1 [3]. - Sugar: On May 27, Nanning's sugar spot price was 6155 yuan/ton, unchanged, and Liuzhou's was 6160 yuan/ton, unchanged. The sugar futures warehouse receipts were 31,881, down 363, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. 4. Chart Analysis - There are multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including closing prices, basis, spreads, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, with data from 2021 - 2025 [6][13][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel products are expected to be in a weak consolidation phase. The demand for rebar has gradually weakened, supply remains high, and cost support has diminished [1]. - Iron ore is predicted to show a weak and volatile trend. Global shipments have slightly decreased, iron - water production has declined, and inventories are being depleted [1]. - Coking coal is likely to operate with a weak and volatile pattern. Upstream coal mine inventories are high, demand from the steel industry is weak, and steel mills have initiated a second round of price cuts for coke [1]. - Coke is expected to have a weak and volatile performance. Raw - material prices have dropped, steel prices are weak, and steel mills have started a second - round price cut for coke [1]. - Manganese silicon is forecasted to run weakly. Terminal demand is weak, market sentiment is pessimistic, and 6 - month steel tenders are ongoing with decreasing prices [1]. - Ferrosilicon is expected to continue its weak operation. Terminal demand is relatively weak, market sentiment is pessimistic, and steel - tender prices are falling [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures contract 2510 closed at 2980 yuan/ton, down 0.8% from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. Spot prices fell, and demand weakened while supply remained high. Cost support from coke price cuts is expected to weaken, leading to a weak consolidation [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures contract i2509 closed at 698.5 yuan/ton, down 1.13%. Global shipments decreased slightly, with different trends in Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream regions. Iron - water production dropped, and inventories decreased. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures contract 2509 closed at 799.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. Spot prices in some areas fell. Upstream coal mine inventories are high, and demand from the steel industry is weak due to price cuts for coke, resulting in a weak and volatile outlook [1]. - **Coke**: The futures contract 2509 closed at 1364 yuan/ton, down 0.8%. Spot prices at ports fell. Raw - material prices dropped, and steel mills initiated a second - round price cut for coke, leading to a weak and volatile trend [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The futures price closed at 5616 yuan/ton, down 1.23%. Spot prices in some regions decreased. Terminal demand is weak, and 6 - month steel tenders are ongoing with falling prices, so it is expected to run weakly [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price closed at 5452 yuan/ton, down 1.73%. Spot prices in some regions decreased. Terminal demand is weak, and steel - tender prices are falling, leading to a weak operation [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: Different contracts of various commodities showed different spread changes, such as the 10 - 1 and 1 - 5 spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts for each commodity also had corresponding changes, like the 10 - contract basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil [2]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of various commodities in different regions changed, for example, rebar prices in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased [2]. - **Profits and Spreads**: Profits such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit changed, as well as spreads like the coil - rebar spread and coke - iron ore ratio [2]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the historical closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. from 2020 to 2025 [6][8][10][13]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts for different commodities over different time periods [16][17][20][22]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts present the spreads between different contracts (e.g., 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for various commodities [24][28][30][32][33][35]. - **Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: Charts show the spreads between different commodities, such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. [38][40][42]. - **Rebar Profits**: Charts illustrate the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar over different time periods [44][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [51]. - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource - product research at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the coal futures field [51]. - Liu Xi is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial - chain data [51]. - Zhang Chunjie is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and futures - cash trading and a CFA Level 2 pass [52].

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 5 月 2 8 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 645.5 | 651.5 | -6.0 | I05-I09 | -53.0 | -55.0 | 2.0 | | I09 | 698.5 | 706.5 | -8.0 | I09-I01 | 34.5 | 35.0 | -0.5 | | I01 | 664.0 | 671.5 | -7.5 | I01-I05 | 18.5 | 20.0 | -1.5 | 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 220 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 5 月 28 日） 一、研究观点 点评 27 日多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2507 收于 35290 元/吨，日内跌幅 1.16%，持 仓增仓 2449 手至 80800 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格 36500 元/吨，最 低交割品 N 型硅料价格跌至 36500 元/吨，现货对主力升水收至 1210 元/ 吨。工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2507 收于 7440 元/吨，日内跌幅 3.63%，持仓 增仓 20995 手至 22.7 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9125 元/吨，较上一交 易日下调 27 元/吨。最低交割品#553 价格降至 7950 元/吨，现货升水扩 至 420 元/吨。工业硅成本随硅煤电极不断下移，西北及西南硅厂均开启 复产阶段，工业硅仍未见底部。5 月多晶硅商议减产额度未达一致，企业 在高库存压力下自行减负，但库存未见去化。丰水期新增预期少但减量有 限，需求和成本坍塌后晶硅承压加剧。近期出现大量仓单补充，淡化此前 挤仓逻辑，晶硅或转向流畅下行节奏。近月供给边际与工业硅出现分歧， 仍可考虑多 PS 空 SI 价差策略。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillating weakly [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating upwards [1] - Edible Oils: Oscillating downwards [1] - Eggs: Oscillating weakly [1] - Live Pigs: Oscillating [2] Group 2: Core Views - **Corn**: On Tuesday, the main 2507 contract of corn reduced positions and adjusted. The futures price fluctuated during the session and rebounded at the end of the session, closing with a small positive line. Northeast corn prices were basically stable, while North China prices were strong last weekend and slowed down on Tuesday. The arrival volume was small, and there was still an intention to ship before the wheat harvest. Sales areas were stable, and ports were temporarily stable. Technically, the July contract was suppressed by the long - term moving average. Under the pressure of wheat substitution and new wheat listing, it is expected that the corn futures and spot quotes will continue to be weak from May to June [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans rose. An agricultural consulting agency raised the forecast of Brazil's soybean production by 800,000 tons to 172 million tons. Brazil's May soybean exports were 14.03 million tons. The post - market crop report showed that the U.S. soybean planting rate was 76%. Domestically, rapeseed meal increased positions and rose, and soybean meal followed. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, the terminal pick - up volume increased, the demand for the two meals was good, the inventory accumulation of soybean meal was less than expected, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased. The supply pressure of soybean meal was postponed to mid - June, and the granular meal inventory may gradually decline. Hold the 9 - 1 positive spread of soybean meal and maintain a long - only mindset [1]. - **Edible Oils**: On Tuesday, BMD palm oil slightly closed higher. High - frequency data showed that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from May 1 - 25 increased by 7.3% - 11.6% month - on - month, and the production increased by 0.73% month - on - month. The slowdown in production growth and the improvement in export growth helped to digest inventory pressure. China and Malaysia signed an agreement, and the EU delegation will visit Malaysia in September and October. Crude oil prices were almost flat. Domestically, rapeseed oil increased positions and rose, while soybean oil and palm oil oscillated and adjusted. The import profit of palm oil was inverted, and the expected purchase volume decreased. The market is concerned about rapeseed purchases after June and soybean purchases for September shipments and later. The state - reserve rapeseed oil has two - way sales. Edible oils oscillate, with a bearish mindset before the festival [1]. - **Eggs**: On Tuesday, egg futures fell. The main 2507 contract continued to decline, and the 2509 contract broke through the oscillation range downward. The spot price increased slightly. Fundamentally, the new supply will continue to increase before August. The long - term plum rain in the Yangtze River Delta is expected to have a greater negative impact on egg prices than in previous years. Before the over - expected increase in culling, a weak expectation for egg prices is maintained [1][2]. - **Live Pigs**: On Tuesday, the September contract of live pigs oscillated and adjusted. At the beginning of the week, the futures price rose driven by the near - month contract. The spot price rose on the weekend, which boosted the futures price. The current demand is stable, but the previous low price triggered resistance to price drops, and the supply of leading enterprises decreased slightly, with a small price rebound. It is expected that the market will continue to adjust within the range in the near future. Technically, pay attention to the support at the 13,500 yuan integer mark. The spot price in May was stronger than expected, and it is generally expected that the price will decline under the pressure of increased supply in June [2]. Group 3: Market Information - CGC will organize a two - way bidding session for rapeseed oil on May 30, with 18,263 tons for two - way trading [3] - Indian farmers and industry officials said that India's soybean planting area may decrease this year as corn and sugarcane may replace soybeans in some areas [3] - According to market rumors, the state - reserve soybean auction will not be held before June 15, and it is rumored that the local state - reserve in Heilongjiang will auction about 2 million tons next month [3] - As of May 23, the commercial inventory of the three major edible oils was 1.85 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 80,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 100,000 tons [3] - From May 20 - 27, the total trading volume of soybean meal showed a fluctuating downward trend, with the total trading volume on May 27 being 86,900 tons, a decrease of 27,700 tons from the previous trading day [4] Group 4: Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: Include the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [5][8][9][13] - **Contract Basis**: Include the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [14][15][19][21][27] Group 5: Research Team Members - Wang Na, Director of Agricultural Products Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, leader of the top ten research teams of DCE, with multiple awards and media experiences [31] - Hou Xueling, Soybean Analyst at Everbright Futures, with over a decade of futures experience, and her team has won multiple awards [31] - Kong Hailan, Researcher on eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with her team winning multiple awards and media interviews [31]

1. Index Trends - On May 27th, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped by -0.18% to close at 3340.69 points with a trading volume of 394.409 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell by -0.61% to close at 10029.11 points with a trading volume of 604.517 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index decreased by -0.34% with a trading volume of 193.606 billion yuan, opening at 6019.54, closing at 6008.46, reaching a high of 6023.14 and a low of 5971.35 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index declined by -0.31% with a trading volume of 125.276 billion yuan, opening at 5666.3, closing at 5652.15, reaching a high of 5667.87 and a low of 5629.13 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index went down by -0.52% with a trading volume of 49.856 billion yuan, opening at 2699.69, closing at 2685.28, reaching a high of 2709.29 and a low of 2684.71 [1]. - The CSI 300 Index decreased by -0.54% with a trading volume of 178.467 billion yuan, opening at 3857.63, closing at 3839.4, reaching a high of 3865.43 and a low of 3834.85 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 dropped 20.33 points from the previous close. Sectors such as Medicine and Biology, and Basic Chemicals had a significant positive impact, while sectors like Computer, Machinery, and Electronics had a negative impact [2]. - The CSI 500 dropped 17.31 points from the previous close. The Medicine and Biology sector had a positive impact, while Machinery, Non - ferrous Metals, and Electronics had a negative impact [2]. - The CSI 300 dropped 20.71 points from the previous close. The Banking sector had a positive impact, while Automobile, Non - ferrous Metals, and Electronics had a negative impact [2]. - The SSE 50 dropped 14.14 points from the previous close. The Banking sector had a positive impact, while Food and Beverage, Electronics, and Non - ferrous Metals had a negative impact [2]. 3. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, the daily average basis was -98.04 for IM00, -190.8 for IM01, -349.56 for IM02, and -527.69 for IM03 [12]. - For IC contracts, the daily average basis was -76.59 for IC00, -151.74 for IC01, -269.32 for IC02, and -399.41 for IC03 [12]. - For IF contracts, the daily average basis was -29.87 for IF00, -68.48 for IF01, -100.62 for IF02, and -139.97 for IF03 [12]. - For IH contracts, the daily average basis was -17.04 for IH00, -48.29 for IH01, -54.82 for IH02, and -57.71 for IH03 [12]. 4. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points (e.g., 09:45, 10:00, etc.) are provided, including values for IM00 - 01, IM00 - 02, etc. [21]. - For IC contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points are provided, including values for IC00 - 01, IC00 - 02, etc. [23]. - For IF contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points are provided, including values for IF00 - 01, IF00 - 02, etc. [23]. - For IH contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points are provided, including values for IH00 - 01, IH00 - 02, etc. [25].

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 05 月 28 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 4 月经济数据整体较 3 月有一定程度下滑，但仍在关税战背景下保持韧性。 | | | | 其中社零同比 5.1%，继续受到"以旧换新"政策的明显支撑。4 月社会信贷 | | | | 需求偏弱，4 月累计新增人民币贷款 10.06 万亿元，同比多增 2.86%；4 月 M2 | | | | 同比 8%。此前中美发布联合声明，为后续进一步贸易协商奠定良好开局， | | | | 超过市场预期。近期三部门召开联合新闻发布会，央行宣布降准降息政策， | | | | 降低企业负债端成本。金融监管总局强调将大力推动中长期资金入市，通过 | | | 股指 | 类平准基金的方式支持、稳定和活跃资本市场，具体措施包括鼓励保险资金 | 震荡 | | | 加大入市力度、设立新的金融资产投资公司、支持汇金公司在必要时增持股 | | | | 票指数基金等。证监会表示将优化主动权益类基金的收费模式，扭转基金公 | | | | 司"旱涝保收"的现象。内部政策发力是股指 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 5 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 点评 26 日多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2507 收于 34886 元/吨，日内涨幅 3.92%，持 仓增仓 3806 手至 77294 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格 36500 元/吨，最 低交割品 N 型硅料价格跌至 36500 元/吨，现货对主力升水扩至 1615 元/ 吨。工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2507 收于 7610 元/吨，日内跌幅 3.67%，持仓 增仓 9112 手至 18.4 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9152 元/吨，较上一交 易日下调 80 元/吨。最低交割品#553 价格降至 8050 元/吨，现货升水扩 至 330 元/吨。工业硅成本随硅煤电极不断下移。新疆大厂增产，西南硅 厂开始进入规模复产前奏，工业硅有延续探底压力。5 月多晶硅商议减产 额度未达一致，企业在高库存压力下自行减负，但库存未见去化。丰水期 新增预期少但减量有限，成本下滑后晶硅价格维持承压态势。多晶硅交割 品短缺预计单边操作风险大。双硅供给边际开始分歧，价差有望延续扩 大。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUT ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 5 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 二、日度数据监测 | | | 锂电产业链产品价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指 标 | 单 位 | 2025-05-26 2025-05-23 | | 涨 跌 | | | 期 货 | 主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 60100 | 60960 | -860 | | | | 连续合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 60260 | 60980 | -720 | | | | 锂辉石精矿(6%,CIF中国) | 美元/吨 | 688 | 690 | -2 | | | | 锂云母（Li2O:1.5%-2.0%） | 元/吨 | 700 | 705 | -5 | | | 锂 矿 | 锂云母（Li2O:2.0%-2.5%） | 元/吨 | 1260 | 1280 | -20 | | | | 磷锂铝石（Li2O:6%-7%） | 元/吨 | 5975 | 6025 | -50 | | | | 磷锂铝石（Li2O:7%-8%） | 元/吨 | 6975 | 7050 | ...

黑色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 27 日） 黑色商品日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面震荡下跌，盘中一度跌破 3000 元/吨关口，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3004 | 弱势整理 | | | 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格下跌 42 元/吨，跌幅为 1.38%，持仓增加 19.1 万手。现货价格下跌，成交维 | | | | 持低位，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格下跌 10 元/吨至 2920 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 40 元/吨至 | | | | 3090 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.58 万吨。据钢银数据，本周全国建材库存下降 2.87%至 403.13 万吨，热卷 | | | | 库存下降 3.87%至 179.97 万吨，库存降幅有所收窄。目前螺纹强现实逐步淡化，弱预期逐步兑现，市场情 | | | | 绪整体偏悲观。预计短期螺纹盘面仍弱势整理运行为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 铁矿石：昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2509 价格有所下跌，收于 706.5 元/吨，较前一个交易日收盘价下跌 | 震荡 ...