请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 生猪 周二，生猪近月合约持续调整，远期跟随下跌跌幅有限。现货市场，销区猪价企 稳，部分地区报价上涨。今日江西生猪市场均价为 11.28 元/公斤，价格偏弱 0.01 元/公斤。今日头部集团厂稳定，大猪成交较好，走量较好，成交较昨日稍有改 善。广东市场生猪出栏均价为 12.16 元/公斤 ，较昨日价格稳定，与全国均价价 差相差 0.90 元/公斤， 规模场主流牌价为 11.9-12.4 元/公斤。7kg 仔猪规模厂牌 价 260 元/头左右。110-130 公斤标猪与 150 公斤以上肥猪价差为-0.84 元/公斤。 技术上，周五自本周二，生猪 7、9 月合约延续调整，短线警惕猪价调整，短多 离场，等待低位企稳的机会。 震荡 农产品日报（2025 年 11 月 19 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，玉米近、远月合约联动调整，最近两个交易日，玉米远期 2611 合约领跌， 近月 2601 合约跟跌。今日北港价格持续上涨，东北产区粮源发北港已开始顺价。 东北产区价格 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a daily monitoring of iron ore basis and spread, including futures contract prices, basis data of various iron ore varieties, and spread data between different iron ore varieties, along with corresponding charts and regulatory changes in iron ore futures contracts [3][5][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contracts - I05 closed at 757.5 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan from the previous day; I09 closed at 734.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan; I01 closed at 792.0 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan [3]. - The spread between I05 - I09 was 23.5 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan; I09 - I01 was -58.0 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan; I01 - I05 was 34.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan [3]. Basis - **Data**: The basis of various iron ore varieties such as Carajás fines, BRBF, Newman fines, etc., showed different degrees of decline compared to the previous day [5]. - **Charts**: Provided basis charts for different types of iron ore, including Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, Australian low - grade fines, and domestic ores [7][8][9]. Regulatory Changes in Iron Ore Futures Contracts - From December 2nd, the main iron ore contract is I2205. Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian concentrate) are added with brand premiums of 0, starting from the I2202 contract [10]. - Brand premiums of existing varieties are adjusted. Only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and the rest are 0 [10]. - Quality differences and premiums of substitutes are modified, including adjusting the allowable range of iron grade and other element indicators and introducing a dynamic adjustment mechanism for iron element premium [10]. - Four new deliverable brands (Taigang concentrate, Magang concentrate, Minmetals standard fines, SP10 fines) are added with brand premiums of 0 [10]. Variety Spreads - **Data**: The spreads between different iron ore varieties, such as block - powder spreads, high - medium grade powder spreads, and medium - low grade powder spreads, showed various changes compared to the previous day [12]. - **Charts**: Provided spread charts for different types of iron ore spreads, including block - powder spreads, high - medium grade powder spreads, medium - low grade powder spreads, etc. [15][16][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices oscillated weakly, with the spot import of refined copper in China remaining at a loss. The market's concern about liquidity persists, and macro factors are unlikely to form an upward driving force. The overall global visible inventory is still in an accumulation trend, close to recent high levels, and the peak - season demand in China has not been effectively realized. High copper prices have shown a restraining effect on terminal copper consumption. Without sudden events, copper volatility may remain at a low level, and copper prices will exhibit a high - level oscillating market [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all oscillated weakly. The alumina market has a narrow - range recovery. With the improvement of the macro - sentiment, the market has broken through the 22,000 - yuan mark. However, due to environmental protection restrictions in the north and the suppressing effect of high prices on demand, the reduction of aluminum ingots is blocked, and the proportion of molten aluminum continues to decline. Aluminum prices continue to be strong but face resistance in rising. Aluminum alloy has more upward momentum, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum is expected to narrow [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both fell by 0.2%. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is becoming more apparent, and the LME inventory remains at 250,000 tons with poor digestion, exerting significant pressure on the market. Nickel prices are still in a weak operation, but be vigilant against macro disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: In terms of macro, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending October 18 was 232,000, and the number of continued jobless claims was 1957,000, slightly up from the previous week. Fundamentally, the acceptance of downstream users has increased, and demand is slowly recovering. In terms of inventory, LME, Comex, and SHFE copper inventories increased, while BC copper warehouse receipts decreased. Overall, the global visible inventory is in an accumulation trend, and high copper prices restrain terminal consumption, which may restrict the upward movement of copper prices in the future [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all oscillated weakly. The mining area in Guinea has a high复产 difficulty, and the expectation of production reduction during the northern heating season remains to be fulfilled. The macro - sentiment is warming up, but high prices suppress demand, and the reduction of aluminum ingots is blocked. Aluminum alloy has more upward momentum due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum and the rush - to - buy stage of new - energy vehicle purchase tax [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel fell. LME inventory increased, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. The benchmark price of nickel ore slightly declined, the price of nickel - iron decreased, and the stainless - steel inventory increased. In the new - energy industry chain, the raw material supply is tight, but the production of ternary precursors in November decreased month - on - month. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is significant, and nickel prices are weakly operating [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On November 18, 2025, compared with November 17, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 495 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 35 yuan/ton. The price of scrap copper decreased by 200 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference decreased by 356 yuan/ton. The prices of downstream products such as oxygen - free copper rods and low - oxygen copper rods also decreased. In terms of inventory, LME and Comex inventories increased, and the social inventory increased by 0.3 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 170 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 lead ingots in East China increased by 40 yuan/ton. The prices of lead concentrate and recycled lead decreased. The inventory in the LME remained unchanged, and the inventory in the SHFE increased by 4208 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: On November 18, 2025, compared with November 17, the prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai decreased, and the spot premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials such as bauxite and alumina remained stable, and the processing fees of some downstream products increased. The inventory in the LME remained unchanged, the inventory in the SHFE increased by 1564 tons, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 2.5 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1775 yuan/ton, and the price differences between Jinchuan nickel - Wuxi and 1 imported nickel - Wuxi increased. The prices of nickel ore and some nickel - iron products remained stable, and the prices of stainless - steel products decreased slightly. The inventory in the LME remained unchanged, the inventory in the SHFE increased by 3386 tons, and the social inventory increased by 3981 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.4%, and the prices of SMM 0 and 1 spot zinc decreased by 80 yuan/ton. The TC remained unchanged. The inventory in the SHFE increased by 793 tons, the inventory in the LME remained unchanged, and the social inventory increased by 0.13 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price remained unchanged, and the LmeS3 price decreased by 2.1%. The prices of SMM spot tin and tin concentrate decreased. The inventory in the SHFE increased by 266 tons, and the inventory in the LME remained unchanged [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts present the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts display the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts present the social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts display the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, a senior researcher with over a decade of experience in commodity research, who has won multiple industry awards; Wang Heng, a researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon; and Zhu Xi, a researcher focusing on lithium and nickel [48][49].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Cotton is expected to have a slightly weak and volatile short - term trend due to supply pressure, with limited adjustment range, waiting for time to resolve the situation. The USDA report is relatively bearish, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory is increasing rapidly [1]. - Sugar is under pressure. With more sugar mills starting production and import pressure, if there is no continuous positive news in the syrup and premixed powder import segment, the market may continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the October import data of syrup and premixed powder [1]. Group 3: Summary according to the Directory 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: On Tuesday, ICE US cotton rose 0.59% to 65.44 cents per pound, CF601 fell 0.3% to 13,395 yuan per ton, and the main contract positions decreased by 6,347 to 565,000. The 3128B spot price index was 14,280 yuan per ton, down 35 yuan. The market focuses on the macro - level, with the Fed's December interest - rate cut expectation affecting market sentiment. The USDA report increased the expected cotton production in the world, China, and Brazil. Domestically, the short - term supply pressure is significant, and the cotton commercial inventory is rising rapidly [1]. - **Sugar**: In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 213,200 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the total import was 3.9054 million tons, a 13.8% increase. The spot prices in different regions were adjusted downwards. India's new sugar production is progressing steadily, and the market sentiment is suppressed by the expected increase in the Northern Hemisphere's production [1]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 10 with no change, the main contract basis was 1394, up 38. The Xinjiang spot price was 14,558 yuan per ton, down 21, and the national spot price was 14,789 yuan per ton, down 12 [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 54, down 8. Some data sources for sugar were missing [2]. 3. Market Information - On November 18, the cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 10 to 4386, and the valid forecasts were 928. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were reported, and the yarn and short - fiber cloth load and inventory data were also provided [2][3]. - On November 18, the sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 11 to 8611, and the valid forecasts were 183 [4]. 4. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts related to cotton and sugar, including closing prices, basis, contract spreads, warehouse receipts, and price indices, are presented, with data from 2021 - 2025 [6][8][10][12][14][15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents the daily data tracking of stock index futures on November 18, 2025, including the index trends, the impact of sector fluctuations on the indices, the basis and annualized opening costs of stock index futures, and the points differences in contract roll - overs and their annualized costs. 3. Summary by Sections Index Trends - On November 18, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.81% to close at 3939.81 points, with a trading volume of 790.949 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.92% to 13080.49 points, with a trading volume of 1135.119 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index declined 1.0%, with a trading volume of 418.065 billion yuan; the CSI 500 Index decreased 1.17%, with a trading volume of 306.54 billion yuan; the SSE 50 Index dropped 0.3%, with a trading volume of 106.201 billion yuan; and the SSE 300 Index fell 0.65%, with a trading volume of 420.15 billion yuan [1]. Impact of Sector Fluctuations on Indices - The CSI 1000 Index dropped 74.98 points from the previous close, and sectors such as non - ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and power equipment significantly pulled the index down [3]. - The CSI 500 Index decreased 84.33 points from the previous close, and sectors like basic chemicals, non - ferrous metals, and power equipment had a significant downward pull on the index [3]. - The SSE 300 Index fell 29.86 points from the previous close, with the electronics sector pulling the index up and sectors such as non - ferrous metals and power equipment pulling it down [3]. - The SSE 50 Index dropped 9.05 points from the previous close, with the electronics and food and beverage sectors pulling the index up and sectors like non - bank finance, power equipment, and non - ferrous metals pulling it down [3]. Basis and Annualized Opening Costs of Stock Index Futures - For IM contracts, the average daily basis of IM00 was - 19.03, IM01 was - 118.81, IM02 was - 351.44, and IM03 was - 580.18 [14]. - For IC contracts, the average daily basis of IC00 was - 16.54, IC01 was - 92.61, IC02 was - 272.32, and IC03 was - 476.66 [14]. - For IF contracts, the average daily basis of IF00 was - 4.59, IF01 was - 21.49, IF02 was - 50.75, and IF03 was - 94.98 [14]. - For IH contracts, the average daily basis of IH00 was - 1.11, IH01 was - 6.98, IH02 was - 9.76, and IH03 was - 17.64 [14]. Points Differences in Contract Roll - Overs and Their Annualized Costs - Data on the points differences in contract roll - overs and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts are presented in the report, including the 15 - minute average points differences and the corresponding annualized costs at different time points [23][24][25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "sideways", and for government bond futures is "relatively strong" [1] Core Viewpoints - The A-share market oscillated and closed lower yesterday, with TMT performing well and coal and power equipment sectors correcting. The overall market is expected to be range - bound in the short term as the liquidity-driven market since June ended and the focus returns to fundamentals. Traditional economic sectors are in a slow recovery, and overseas tech stocks also face expectation divergence [1]. - Government bond futures closed higher yesterday. The central bank's actions and economic expectations have a positive impact on the bond market, but the "stock - bond seesaw" effect causes some disturbances. The bond market is expected to continue its oscillating pattern [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Research Views Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the A - share market closed down with Wind All - A dropping 0.93% and a trading volume of 1.95 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300 indices all declined. New - quality productivity themes led by AI have optimistic growth expectations, especially in the upstream hardware manufacturing of the tech sector, but they lack catalysts and have entered a sideways trend since November. Traditional economic sectors are in a slow recovery and are unlikely to enter a fundamental bull market in the short term. Overseas tech stocks also face expectation divergence [1]. Government Bond Futures - Yesterday, government bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising. The central bank conducted 4075 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with a net injection of 37 billion yuan. DR001 rose 2BP to 1.53%, and DR007 remained flat at 1.52%. The central bank's actions strengthen the expectation of reasonable and sufficient funds, which is positive for the bond market. However, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect causes some disturbances, and the bond market is expected to oscillate [1][2] 2. Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - On November 18, 2025, IH dropped 0.39% to 2,997.6, IF dropped 0.58% to 4,555.0, IC dropped 0.89% to 7,079.8, and IM dropped 0.58% to 7,351.8 compared to November 17 [3]. Stock Indices - The SSE 50 dropped 0.30% to 3,003.0, the CSI 300 dropped 0.65% to 4,568.2, the CSI 500 dropped 1.17% to 7,151.0, and the CSI 1000 dropped 1.00% to 7,448.1 on November 18, 2025, compared to November 17 [3]. Government Bond Futures - On November 18, 2025, TS rose 0.01% to 102.49, TF rose 0.01% to 105.92, T rose 0.01% to 108.50, and TL rose 0.07% to 116.53 compared to November 17 [3] 3. Market News - As of the week ending October 18, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 232,000, and the number of continuing jobless claims was 1,957,000, up from 1,947,000 the previous week. The US Federal government shutdown led to a lack of regular weekly data [4]. - China's Foreign Ministry held consultations with Japan's officials. China sternly protested against Japanese Prime Minister Kaochi Sanae's wrong remarks on China, urging Japan to retract the remarks and stop causing trouble on China - related issues [4] 4. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their respective basis trends [6][7][9] Government Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the trends of government bond futures main contracts, bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and fund rates [13][14][19] Exchange Rates - The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [22][23][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall upward drive of the crude oil market is supported by geopolitical factors, but the medium - term suppression of supply - demand imbalance still exists, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by relatively healthy downstream bunker demand, and the LU - FU spread is expected to remain at a relatively high level in the near future [2]. - The asphalt market is expected to be bearish due to the dual decline of supply and demand, with the decline in supply being less than that in demand [2]. - The PTA price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the improvement of fundamentals, while the ethylene glycol price is expected to have a wide - range adjustment [2][3]. - The rubber market is expected to fluctuate under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, with winter storage demand supporting the raw material price [3]. - The methanol market is expected to maintain a bottom - range fluctuation, and the port inventory is expected to enter the destocking stage from mid - December this year to early January next year [3]. - The polyolefin market is expected to have a bottom - weak fluctuation as it gradually shifts to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the decline in valuation may prompt downstream price - fixing or inventory - building actions [5]. - The PVC market is expected to show a weak - range fluctuation due to high supply - demand pressure and weak fundamental drivers, despite the narrowing of the hedging space [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices moved up. WTI December contract closed up $0.83 to $60.74 per barrel, a 1.39% increase; Brent January contract closed up $0.69 to $64.89 per barrel, a 1.07% increase. SC2512 closed at 466 yuan per barrel, up 5.4 yuan per barrel, a 1.17% increase. The new main contract SC2601 closed at 465.7 yuan per barrel, up 3.4 yuan per barrel, a 0.74% increase. API data showed that last week, US API crude oil inventory increased by 4.448 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 790,000 barrels. China's gasoline and diesel production in October 2025 had different year - on - year changes, and an Iranian coast guard intercepted a tanker [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main contract of fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, FU2601, closed down 1.62% at 2558 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2601 closed up 0.31% at 3247 yuan per ton. Singapore is expected to receive about 2.9 - 3 million tons of low - sulfur fuel oil arbitrage cargo from the West in November [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main contract of asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, BU2601, closed down 0.36% at 3032 yuan per ton. Refineries are still releasing a large number of low - price forward contracts, and the spot price is under great pressure [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4670 yuan per ton, down 0.47%; EG2601 closed at 3907 yuan per ton, down 0.79%. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak, and the cancellation of India's BIS certification is beneficial to PTA and its downstream exports [2][3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai rubber, RU2601, fell 20 yuan per ton to 15295 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract fell 10 yuan per ton to 12345 yuan per ton. Rubber production is seasonally increasing, and imports are increasing year - on - year, while overseas tire demand is slightly decreasing [3]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2002 yuan per ton. Domestic maintenance devices are gradually resuming production, and Iranian devices may stop from late November to December, which may lead to a significant decline in arrivals in January [3]. - **Polyolefin**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene was 6380 - 6580 yuan per ton. Polyolefins are gradually shifting to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the decline in valuation may prompt downstream actions [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Tuesday, the price of PVC in East, North, and South China markets decreased. The supply remains at a high - level fluctuation, and the demand is expected to decline as real - estate construction slows down [5]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis, basis rate, spot price, futures price, and other data of various energy - chemical products on November 19, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [6] 3.3 Market News - API data shows that last week, US API crude oil inventory increased by 4.448 million barrels, Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 790,000 barrels, and gasoline and distillate inventories also changed [9]. - China's National Bureau of Statistics data shows that in October 2025, China's gasoline production was 13.457 million tons, a 1.7% year - on - year increase, and diesel production was 17.683 million tons, a 0.5% year - on - year increase [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [10][11][12] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., from 2021 to 2025 [28][29][30] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [42][43][44] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: It includes the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur, etc. [58][59][60] - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report shows the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [65][66]

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 11 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周一，ICE 美棉上涨 0.12%，报收 64.21 美分/磅，CF601 环比下跌 0.22%，报收 13445 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 14902 手至 57.13 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 14315 元/吨，较前一日下降 40 元/吨。国际市场方面，宏观层面仍有扰动，美联 储 12 月降息 25bp 概率跌破 50%，美元指数坚挺。基本面方面，阔别已久 USDA | | | | 月报终于公布，报告环比调增全球棉花产量预期值，增幅主要来自于美国、中国 | | | 棉花 | 和巴西，全球棉花库销比预计同比调增，但绝对值来看，影响有限。后续市场关 | 震荡 | | | 注重心将仍在于宏观及其余数据何时能够恢复正常公布，给予市场更多锚点。国 | | | | 内市场方面，短期供应压力是市场无法忽视的问题，棉花商业库存两周时间增加 | | | | 120 余万吨，而且供应高峰期仍将持续一定时间。综合来看，预计短期郑棉在供应 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Index Trends - On November 17th, the Shanghai Composite Index had a change of -0.46%, closing at 3972.03 points with a trading volume of 805.733 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index had a change of -0.11%, closing at 13202.0 points with a trading volume of 1105.058 billion yuan [1] - The CSI 1000 Index had a change of 0.27% with a trading volume of 391.318 billion yuan, opening at 7514.84, closing at 7523.08, with a daily high of 7544.72 and a low of 7487.81 [1] - The CSI 500 Index had a change of -0.0% with a trading volume of 310.823 billion yuan, opening at 7248.92, closing at 7235.35, with a daily high of 7262.33 and a low of 7202.59 [1] - The SSE 50 Index had a change of -0.87% with a trading volume of 111.805 billion yuan, opening at 3033.02, closing at 3012.07, with a daily high of 3037.23 and a low of 3001.2 [1] - The SSE 300 Index had a change of -0.65% with a trading volume of 438.94 billion yuan, opening at 4616.81, closing at 4598.05, with a daily high of 4624.9 and a low of 4580.26 [1] Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 20.32 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors such as computer, national defense and military industry, and electronics significantly pulled the index up, while household appliances, non - ferrous metals, and pharmaceutical biology significantly pulled it down [3] - The CSI 500 rose -0.11 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors like electronics, computer, and national defense and military industry significantly pulled the index up, while non - ferrous metals, non - bank finance, and pharmaceutical biology significantly pulled it down [3] - The SSE 300 rose -30.09 points compared to the previous closing price. Sectors such as non - bank finance, banks, and power equipment significantly pulled the index down [3] - The SSE 50 rose -26.36 points compared to the previous closing price. The food and beverage sector significantly pulled the index up, while non - bank finance, banks, and non - ferrous metals significantly pulled it down [3] Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs Converted from Basis - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average basis of -21.95, IM01 had -118.56, IM02 had -352.6, and IM03 had -581.2 [13] - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average basis of -16.93, IC01 had -90.6, IC02 had -268.85, and IC03 had -470.92 [13] - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average basis of -4.62, IF01 had -20.83, IF02 had -48.63, and IF03 had -89.89 [13] - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average basis of -0.69, IH01 had -5.36, IH02 had -7.48, and IH03 had -13.7 [13] Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Their Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their converted annualized costs at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 are provided, such as at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was -73.02267 [24][25] - For IC contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their converted annualized costs at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 are provided, like at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was -68.64222 [27] - For IF contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their converted annualized costs at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 are provided, for example, at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was -12.31678 [27] - For IH contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their converted annualized costs at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 are provided, say at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was 0.707 [29]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Corn: Bullish [1] - Soybean Meal: Sideways [1] - Palm Oil: Sideways [1] - Eggs: Sideways [1] - Pork: Sideways [2] 2. Core Views - **Corn**: On Monday, the near - term corn contracts showed a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The price in the Northeast production area was strong over the weekend, and the enthusiasm of traders to purchase grain increased. The price in the sales area was also stable to strong. Farmers' reluctance to sell intensified. Technically, the futures price was weak in rising, and short - term long positions should stop profit. Be vigilant about the phased adjustment of the quotes in May and July [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybean meal rose to a one - year high on Monday due to good demand prospects. The domestic soybean meal price declined following the import cost. It is expected to rise again today, but the increase will be lower than that of the external market. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to exceed 2.3 million tons this week, and the market supply is sufficient. The downstream adopts a rolling procurement strategy [1]. - **Palm Oil**: BMD palm oil rose on Monday due to production risks in Indonesia and the weakness of the Malaysian ringgit. The production in Indonesia is expected to increase by 4.3% month - on - month. There is still pressure on inventory accumulation in November. In the domestic market, palm oil rose, rapeseed oil fell, and soybean oil changed little. The bottom of the oil market is brewing, and the market volatility is decreasing [1]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures completed the main contract change. The spot price was stable, and the short - term supply and demand were relatively balanced. Before February next year, the new supply will continue to decline, and the egg futures price is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the opportunity of a rebound at low levels [1]. - **Pork**: On Monday, the near - term pork contracts continued to adjust, and the far - term contracts followed the decline but with a limited range. The spot price in the sales area continued to decline. The current supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to reverse, and there is still a wait - and - see attitude in the market. Short - term long positions should leave the market and wait for the opportunity of stabilization at low levels [2] 3. Market Information - Malaysia set the reference price of palm oil in December at 4,206.38 ringgit per ton, with an export tax rate of 10.0% [3]. - The estimated palm oil export volume of Malaysia from November 1 - 15 decreased by 44.9% (SGS data) and 10% (AmSpec data) compared with the same period last month [3]. - The weekly soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills recovered to over 2 million tons last week and is expected to continue to rise. The estimated soybean crushing volume in November is about 8.7 million tons [3][4]. - As of November 14, the physical inventory of soybean meal in national feed enterprises was 7.74 days, 0.01 days less than the previous period and 0.80 days less than the same period last year [4]. 4. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: Include the 1 - 5 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pork [6][7][11][15] - **Contract Basis**: Include the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pork [14][17][19][21]