有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | | | | | | 昨日 LME 休市；昨晚 SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.23%至 78450 元/吨。宏观方面，美联储明 | | | | | 年票委、明尼阿波利斯联储主席表示，美国经济面临的最大风险是新政策的不确定 | | | | | 性，不确定到 9 月份时有足够证据进行降息。欧央行表示欧元可能成为美元的替代， | | | | | 近期全球动荡为欧元推进全球化创造契机。库存方面，SMM 周一统计全国主流地区 铜库存环比上周五微降 0.02 万吨至 13.97 万吨，结束连续两周周一累库重新下降。需 | | | | 铜 | 求方面，高铜价高升水，下游采购相对谨慎，终端需求订单可能逐步放缓。虽然特朗 | | | | | 普态度反复摇摆，但美政府关税立场缓和下，宏观方面整体朝着回暖的方向发展。基 | | | | | 本面方面，COMEX 市场继续"吸"铜，LME 库存快速下降，或引起非美国家铜紧 | | | | | 张的情形，从我国 4 月精通、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock indices, the revenue growth rate of A-shares excluding finance in Q1 2025 was -0.33% year-on-year, rising for two consecutive quarters, indicating that the asset-side earnings of listed companies are bottoming out. The central bank cut interest rates to narrow the negative carry of enterprises and bring the index back to a slow bull trend. The net profit growth rate was 3.4% year-on-year, showing a positive change from previous quarters. However, it remains to be seen whether enterprises can maintain this level under the background of the tariff war, and the accounts receivable ratio is still rising. The ROE is at the bottoming stage of the downward cycle since Q2 2021, significantly affected by the low PPI. The net profit margin and gross profit margin have slightly increased, while the asset turnover has declined, and the equity multiplier has remained basically flat. Overall, the Q1 earnings data of the A-share market are mixed, indicating that the profitability of listed companies is still bottoming out but showing signs of recovery. The valuation of A-shares is at a historical median, and future quasi-stabilization funds are expected to maintain the overall stability of A-share valuations. The growth indicators of small-cap indices have turned positive [1]. - For treasury bonds, the tariff negotiation's negative impact on the bond market has basically ended, and the dominant factors have returned to the capital and fundamental aspects. The economic and financial data in April show that the effect of the stable growth policy is continuously emerging, but the problem of weak real financing demand still exists. In the short term, the economic fundamentals will continue to recover moderately, and the capital side will lack the impetus for significant fluctuations after the double cuts. It is expected that the short-term bond market will continue to fluctuate within a range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On May 26, 2025, IH was at 2,684.4, down 8.6 or -0.32% from May 23; IF was at 3,831.2, down 15.0 or -0.39%; IC was at 5,594.6, up 32.8 or 0.59%; IM was at 5,925.0, up 53.0 or 0.90% [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite 50 was at 2,699.4, down 12.4 or -0.46% from May 23; the CSI 300 was at 3,860.1, down 22.2 or -0.57%; the CSI 500 was at 5,669.5, up 16.4 or 0.29%; the CSI 1000 was at 6,028.8, up 39.1 or 0.65% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On May 26, 2025, TS was at 102.43, up 0.022 or 0.02% from May 23; TF was at 106.06, up 0.01 or 0.01%; T was at 108.86, up 0.005 or 0.00%; TL was at 119.76, up 0.16 or 0.13% [3]. 3.2 Market News - The People's Bank of China conducted 382 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations today, with the operating rate remaining flat at 1.40%. There were 135 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing today, resulting in a net investment of 247 billion yuan [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM main contracts, as well as the trends of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock indices [6][7][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report includes charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][16][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates and currency indices [21][22][25].

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 5 月 2 7 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 651.5 | 662.5 | -11.0 | I05-I09 | -55.0 | -55.5 | 0.5 | | I09 | 706.5 | 718.0 | -11.5 | I09-I01 | 35.0 | 35.5 | -0.5 | | I01 | 671.5 | 682.5 | -11.0 | I01-I05 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillating weakly [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [1] - Oils: Weakly [1] - Eggs: Oscillating weakly [1] - Pigs: Oscillating [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn: The corn futures price decreased with reduced positions on Monday, and the spot price in the northern ports was stable over the weekend. The corn price in North China was strong, and the purchase price of deep - processing enterprises stopped falling. The substitution of wheat increased, and it is expected that the corn futures and spot prices will continue to be weak from May to June [1]. - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans were closed on Monday. The domestic protein meal futures price oscillated. The postponement of the 50% tariff on EU imports to July 9th eased market concerns. The spot price of soybean meal rose slightly. The soybean crushing volume this week exceeded 2 million tons, and the spot inventory of soybean meal is expected to continue to recover. Hold the 9 - 1 positive spread of soybean meal and adopt a long - only strategy [1]. - Oils: BMD palm oil almost closed flat on Monday. The international soybean - palm oil price spread widened, increasing the competitive advantage of palm oil. The export of Malaysian palm oil from May 1 - 25 increased, and the production increase slowed down, which helped to ease the inventory pressure. The domestic inventory of three major vegetable oils decreased slightly, but was still higher than last year. The soybean crushing volume is expected to exceed 2 million tons this week, and the soybean oil inventory may continue to rise. Adopt a short - only strategy [1]. - Eggs: The egg futures price oscillated on Monday, with the near - month contract being weak and the far - month contract being relatively strong. The spot price increased slightly. Due to the impact of weather on terminal demand and sufficient supply, the egg price is expected to be weak. Pay attention to the impact of feed raw material prices and farmers' willingness to cull hens on egg prices [1]. - Pigs: The September pig futures contract rose on Monday, driven by the near - month contract. The spot price of pigs increased over the weekend, boosting the futures price. The current demand in the pig market is stable, and the price rebounded slightly today. It is expected that the market will continue to adjust within a range tomorrow. The pig price is expected to be weak in June due to increased supply [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Information - The production of Malaysian palm oil from May 1 - 25, 2025 increased by 0.73% [2][3]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil from May 1 - 25 increased by 7.3% (AmSpec) and 34.71% (SGS) [2][3]. - Thailand issued a heavy - rain risk warning from 06:00 on May 26 to 06:00 on May 27 [3]. - It is estimated that 12 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in June and 9.5 million tons in July. The weekly soybean crushing volume of oil mills has quickly recovered to over 2 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory will significantly increase [3]. - CGC will organize a two - way bidding trading of 11,905 tons of imported crude soybeans on May 28 [3]. Variety Spreads - The report presents contract spreads and contract basis charts for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [4][5][7][8][12][13][14][18][20][26] Research Team Members - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times and led the team to win many awards [30]. - Hou Xueling, an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, has rich experience and has won many awards and published many articles [30]. - Kong Hailan, a researcher of eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has participated in many research projects and been interviewed by the media [30].

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 5 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周一，ICE 美棉上涨 0.66%，报收 66.06 美分/磅，CF509 下跌 0.3%，报收 13385 元 | 震荡 | | | /吨，主力合约持仓环比减少 2270 手至 57.54 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14504 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日下降 10 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14606 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日下降 2 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期扰动仍更多在于宏观层面，美元指数跌破 | | | | 100 整数关口后持续下移，对美棉价格无明显驱动。后续除宏观层面外，美棉主产 | | | | 区天气情况也需重点关注，预计短期 ICE 美棉仍低位震荡为主。国内市场方面， | | | | 郑棉期价重心小幅下移，当前国内新棉正常生长中，需求端表现相对稳定，棉花库 | | | | 存在逐渐下降，郑棉没有太多利空驱动，但上行驱动同样不足，预计短期郑棉在当 | | | | 前区间震荡运行为主，后续关注国际 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Urea market shows a weak trend with supply increasing and demand being scattered. The market will continue to face pressure without new positive drivers, but there may be opportunities for a rebound. The outlook is "Oscillating" [2] - The soda ash market fluctuates widely, with supply slightly increasing and demand being stable but with limited support. The market will continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, and there may be some support in the medium - term, while facing pressure in the long - term. The outlook is "Oscillating" [2] - The glass market is firm but with a weakening night - session trend. Supply is stable, demand is weak, and the market will continue to consolidate at the bottom in the short - term. The outlook is "Oscillating" [2] Market Information Summary Urea - On May 26, the urea futures warehouse receipts were 7104, a decrease of 444 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 0 [5] - On May 26, the daily output of the urea industry was 206,800 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from the previous working day and 355,000 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 89.92%, a 10.8 - percentage - point increase from 79.12% in the same period last year [5] - On May 26, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions decreased, with Shandong at 1860 yuan/ton (-20), Henan at 1850 yuan/ton (-30), etc. [5] Soda Ash & Glass - On May 26, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 0, a decrease of 147 from the previous trading day, with an effective forecast of 4781; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 0, a decrease of 2358 from the previous trading day [7] - On May 26, the spot prices of soda ash in various regions showed some adjustments, with prices in the southwest and northwest regions decreasing [7] - On May 26, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 81.59%. The total capacity was adjusted from 39.8 million tons to 41.1 million tons [7] - On May 26, the average price of the float glass market was 1234 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 3 yuan/ton, and the daily output of the industry was 157,500 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous day [7] Chart Analysis Summary - The content provides multiple charts including those related to urea and soda ash, such as price trends, basis, contract spreads, and spot price trends, but no specific analysis of these charts is provided in the text [10][11][12] Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin, the research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on sugar industry research and has won multiple awards [25] - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass, and has won many honors [25] - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys, and has won relevant honors [25]

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-05-27 中证 1000 较前收盘价上涨 39.11 点，电子,计算机,传媒等板块对指数向上拉动明显，医药生物等板块对指数向下拉动明显。 中证 500 较前收盘价上涨 16.42 点，计算机,电子,国防军工等板块对指数向上拉动明显，汽车,医药生物等板块对指数向下拉动明显。 沪深 300 较前收盘价上涨-22.16 点，银行,电力设备,汽车等板块对指数向下拉动明显。 上证 50 较前收盘价上涨-12.43 点，汽车,银行,食品饮料等板块对指数向下拉动明显。 图 3：中证 1000 各板块对指数贡献的涨跌点数 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 电子 计算机 传媒 电力设备 机械设备 国防军工 通信 有色金属 食品饮料 环保 基础化工 公用事业 交通运输 商贸零售 农林牧渔 非银金融 房地产 建筑装饰 家用电器 石油石化 建筑材料 轻工制造 社会服务 钢铁 综合 纺织服饰 美容护理 煤炭 银行 汽车 医药生物 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 图 4：中证 500 各板块对指数贡献的涨跌点数 一、指数走势 05 月 26 日，上证综指涨跌幅-0.05%，收于 3346.84 点，成交 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 5 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 周一因阵亡将士纪念日美国休市，WTI 7 月原油即期合约无收盘 | 震荡 | | | 数据。布伦特 7 月合约收盘下跌 0.04 美元至 64.74 美元/桶，跌幅 | | | | 0.06%。SC2507 以 455.9 元/桶收盘，下跌 0.5 元/桶，跌幅 0.11%。 | | | | 据欧佩克代表透露，欧佩克+将 7 月产量决策会议调整至 5 月 31 | | | | 日，原定于 6 月 1 日召开。此次会议可能会决定 7 月的产量，此 | | | | 前有消息人士称，7 月份日产量可能会再增加 41.1 万桶。伊朗表 | | | | 示，其为亚洲买家设定的 6 月轻质原油官方售价 OSP 为较阿曼/ | | | | 迪拜原油均价每桶升水 1.80 美元，高于上月的 1.65 美元升水。伊 | | | | 朗 6 月重质原油官方售价较阿曼/迪拜原油均价每桶贴水 0.15 美 | | | | 元，上月为贴水 0.35 美元。周 ...

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 5 月 2 6 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 662.5 | 671.0 | -8.5 | I05-I09 | -55.5 | -56.0 | 0.5 | | I09 | 718.0 | 727.0 | -9.0 | I09-I01 | 35.5 | 35.5 | 0.0 | | I01 | 682.5 | 691.5 | -9.0 | I01-I05 | 20.0 | 20.5 | -0.5 | p 2 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The daily report focuses on the lithium carbonate market on May 23, 2025. The lithium carbonate futures 2507 contract rose 1.67% to 62,140 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 63,050 yuan/ton, while the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 61,450 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 150 yuan/ton [2]. - Zimbabwe's lithium exporters' association requested a two - and - a - half - year delay in a 5% tax to foster local smelters. The government uses the higher - value lithium carbonate price as the benchmark for calculating royalties [2]. - The market price and transaction price of lithium ore have declined. Supply decreased by 537 tons to 16,093 tons this week, with a significant reduction in lithium extraction from spodumene. Demand for lithium carbonate in ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries is expected to increase slightly in May, and the cell segment remains prosperous. Inventory decreased by 141 tons to 131,779 tons this week, with downstream and other sectors reducing inventory and smelters increasing inventory [2]. - The current market contradiction lies in supply. Although the production cut in the lithium salt sector is becoming more evident, the lithium ore price continues to fall, and mines have not stopped or reduced production. The fundamentals are still weak, but short - term capital disturbances and market sentiment driven by news should be watched out for [2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The 2507 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 1.67% to 62,140 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 63,050 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 61,450 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 150 yuan/ton [2]. - **News**: Zimbabwe's lithium exporters' association requested a delay in a 5% tax, and the government uses a higher - value lithium carbonate price for royalty calculations [2]. - **Price, Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Lithium ore prices declined. Supply decreased by 537 tons to 16,093 tons this week, with a large drop in spodumene - based lithium extraction. Demand for lithium carbonate in ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries is expected to increase slightly in May, and the cell segment is booming. Inventory decreased by 141 tons to 131,779 tons this week, with downstream and other sectors reducing inventory and smelters increasing inventory [2]. - **Market Outlook**: The current market contradiction is supply - oriented. Despite production cuts in the lithium salt sector, the fundamentals are weak as lithium ore prices fall and mines do not cut production. Short - term capital disturbances and news - driven market sentiment should be monitored [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 62,140 yuan/ton, up 1,040 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 62,160 yuan/ton, up 980 yuan [4]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) and lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) remained unchanged at 690 US dollars/ton and 705 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged, while the price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 150 yuan/ton [4]. - **Other Products**: The price of hexafluorophosphate lithium remained unchanged, and the prices of some precursors and cathode materials decreased slightly [4]. Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other ores from 2024 to 2025 [5][7]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and hexafluorophosphate lithium from 2024 to 2025 [8][10][12]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc., from 2024 to 2025 [15][16]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [19][22][25]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [28][30]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other segments from September 2024 to May 2025 [33][35]. - **Production Costs**: A chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [37][38].