Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Corn: Bullish [1] - Soybean Meal: Sideways [1] - Palm Oil: Sideways [1] - Eggs: Sideways [1] - Pork: Sideways [2] 2. Core Views - **Corn**: On Monday, the near - term corn contracts showed a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The price in the Northeast production area was strong over the weekend, and the enthusiasm of traders to purchase grain increased. The price in the sales area was also stable to strong. Farmers' reluctance to sell intensified. Technically, the futures price was weak in rising, and short - term long positions should stop profit. Be vigilant about the phased adjustment of the quotes in May and July [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybean meal rose to a one - year high on Monday due to good demand prospects. The domestic soybean meal price declined following the import cost. It is expected to rise again today, but the increase will be lower than that of the external market. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to exceed 2.3 million tons this week, and the market supply is sufficient. The downstream adopts a rolling procurement strategy [1]. - **Palm Oil**: BMD palm oil rose on Monday due to production risks in Indonesia and the weakness of the Malaysian ringgit. The production in Indonesia is expected to increase by 4.3% month - on - month. There is still pressure on inventory accumulation in November. In the domestic market, palm oil rose, rapeseed oil fell, and soybean oil changed little. The bottom of the oil market is brewing, and the market volatility is decreasing [1]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures completed the main contract change. The spot price was stable, and the short - term supply and demand were relatively balanced. Before February next year, the new supply will continue to decline, and the egg futures price is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the opportunity of a rebound at low levels [1]. - **Pork**: On Monday, the near - term pork contracts continued to adjust, and the far - term contracts followed the decline but with a limited range. The spot price in the sales area continued to decline. The current supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to reverse, and there is still a wait - and - see attitude in the market. Short - term long positions should leave the market and wait for the opportunity of stabilization at low levels [2] 3. Market Information - Malaysia set the reference price of palm oil in December at 4,206.38 ringgit per ton, with an export tax rate of 10.0% [3]. - The estimated palm oil export volume of Malaysia from November 1 - 15 decreased by 44.9% (SGS data) and 10% (AmSpec data) compared with the same period last month [3]. - The weekly soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills recovered to over 2 million tons last week and is expected to continue to rise. The estimated soybean crushing volume in November is about 8.7 million tons [3][4]. - As of November 14, the physical inventory of soybean meal in national feed enterprises was 7.74 days, 0.01 days less than the previous period and 0.80 days less than the same period last year [4]. 4. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: Include the 1 - 5 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pork [6][7][11][15] - **Contract Basis**: Include the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pork [14][17][19][21]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an industrial silicon and polysilicon daily report dated November 18, 2025 [1] - On the 17th, industrial silicon showed a slightly upward trend with the main contract 2601 closing at 9080 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 0.11%, and an increase in positions by 247 to 252,000 hands. Polysilicon also trended slightly upward, with the main contract 2601 closing at 52,655 yuan/ton, an intraday decrease of 2.9%, and a decrease in positions by 8,948 to 13.6 hands [2] - The current tight supply and rising costs provide a bottom - support for industrial silicon, but the simultaneous production cuts in downstream sectors limit its upward space, so it continues to fluctuate and adjust. For polysilicon, due to the reduction in downstream orders, silicon wafers cut production and prices first, putting upward pressure on polysilicon. However, with the spot price holding firm, the bottom position is stable [2] Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract increased from 9020 yuan/ton on November 14 to 9080 yuan/ton on November 17, a rise of 60 yuan/ton; the near - month contract rose from 9035 yuan/ton to 9095 yuan/ton, also a 60 - yuan increase [3] - Most spot prices remained unchanged, and the spot premium to the main contract decreased from - 85 yuan/ton to - 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton [3] - Industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 1323 to 44,022, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 4175 to 226,725 tons. The total social inventory increased by 400 to 452,400 tons [3] Polysilicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract decreased from 54,045 yuan/ton to 52,655 yuan/ton, a decline of 1390 yuan/ton; the near - month contract rose from 51,750 yuan/ton to 53,045 yuan/ton, an increase of 1295 yuan/ton [3] - Spot prices remained stable, and the spot premium to the main contract increased from - 1745 yuan/ton to - 355 yuan/ton, an increase of 1390 yuan/ton [3] - Polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 70 to 8190, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 52,000 tons to 243,600 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 2000 tons to 279,000 tons [3] Organic Silicon - Most organic silicon spot prices remained unchanged, except that the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 13,300 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton, a rise of 700 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Chart Analysis Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices - Charts show prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10] Downstream Product Prices - Charts display prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][14][17] Inventory - Charts present industrial silicon futures inventory, factory - warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [18][22] Cost - profit - Charts show average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [25][29] Group 4: Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium and nickel research [32][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated weakly, with the spot import of refined copper in China remaining at a loss. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is still low, and the instability of the US stock market has increased market concerns about liquidity. The overall global visible inventory is in a state of accumulation and is approaching recent high levels. Without sudden events, copper volatility may remain at a low level, and copper prices will show a high - level oscillating market [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. The alumina futures price repaired narrowly. The macro - sentiment continued to warm up, but the high price had an obvious suppressing effect on demand. The destocking of aluminum ingots was continuously blocked, and the proportion of molten aluminum continued to decline. Aluminum prices continued to be strong but had difficulty rising further. Aluminum alloy had more upward momentum, and the spread between refined and scrap aluminum was expected to narrow [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. The inventory pressure of primary nickel became prominent, and the LME inventory remained at 250,000 tons and was difficult to digest, putting great pressure on the market. Nickel prices continued to operate weakly, but attention should be paid to macro - disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The Fed's internal division over whether to cut interest rates in December has increased, and the probability of a rate cut remains low. The downstream acceptance of high copper prices has increased, and the overall demand is slowly recovering. However, the high inventory may restrict the upward movement of copper prices in the future [1]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina futures price repaired narrowly. The end of the US government shutdown and the release of China's 14th Five - Year Plan suggestions have warmed up the macro - sentiment. However, high prices have suppressed demand, and the destocking of aluminum ingots has been blocked. Aluminum alloy has more upward momentum [1][2]. - **Nickel**: The inventory pressure of primary nickel is increasing, and the LME inventory is difficult to digest, putting pressure on the market. The price of nickel iron has declined, and the inventory of stainless steel has increased. Nickel prices are still weak, but beware of macro - disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On November 17, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 86,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 585 yuan compared to November 14. The total inventory (weekly) decreased by 5,628 tons to 109,407 tons [3]. - **Lead**: On November 17, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 17,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan compared to November 14. The inventory (weekly) increased by 4,208 tons to 42,790 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: On November 17, 2025, the Wuxi quotation was 21,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan compared to November 14. The electrolytic aluminum inventory (weekly) increased by 25,000 tons to 646,000 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: On November 17, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 120,625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 925 yuan compared to November 14. The nickel inventory (weekly) increased by 3,386 tons to 40,573 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: On November 17, 2025, the main settlement price was 22,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4% compared to November 14. The social inventory (weekly) increased by 1,300 tons to 162,000 tons [6]. - **Tin**: On November 17, 2025, the main settlement price was 289,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.5% compared to November 14. The inventory (weekly) of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 266 tons to 6,258 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis The report provides multiple charts, including those related to spot premiums and discounts, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin, covering data from 2019 - 2025 [7][14][23][29][35][42].

Group 1: General Information - The report is "Guangqi Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" dated November 18, 2025 [1] Group 2: Futures Contract Information - Futures contract I05 closed at 756.5 yuan/ton today, up 13.0 yuan from the previous day; I09 closed at 732.0 yuan/ton, up 10.5 yuan; I01 closed at 788.5 yuan/ton, up 16.0 yuan [3] - The spread between I05 - I09 is 24.5 yuan/ton today, up 2.5 yuan from the previous day; I09 - I01 is -56.5 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan; I01 - I05 is 32.0 yuan/ton, up 3.0 yuan [3] Group 3: Basis Information - For various iron ore varieties, the basis has generally decreased. For example, the basis of Carajás fines decreased by 5 yuan to 62 yuan, and that of BRBF decreased by 5 yuan to 70 yuan [5] Group 4: Contract and Policy Adjustments - Starting from December 2nd, the main iron ore contract is I2205. Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi Concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian Concentrate) are added with a brand premium of 0, effective from the I2202 contract [10] - The brand premiums of PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines are 15 yuan/ton, and the rest are 0 yuan/ton [10] - The allowable range of iron grade is adjusted to ≥56%, and the allowable ranges of silica, alumina, phosphorus, and sulfur are set. The premium and discount for quality differences are more detailed, and the value of X for adjusting the iron element premium is determined semi - annually [10] - Four new deliverable brands (Taigang Concentrate, Magang Concentrate, Minmetals Standard Fines, SP10 Fines) are added with a brand premium of 0 yuan/ton, applicable to the I2312 and subsequent contracts [10][11] Group 5: Variety Spread Information - The spread between PB lump and PB fines is 87.0 yuan/ton today, down 1.0 yuan from the previous day; the spread between PB fines and FMG mixed fines is 66.0 yuan/ton, up 5.0 yuan [12] Group 6: Research Team Information - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and relevant qualifications [24]

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 11 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一尿素期货价格坚挺震荡，主力01合约收盘价1662元/吨，上涨0.79%。现货市场 | | | | 继续走弱，主流地区现货价格回落10~20元/吨，山东、河南地区市场价格昨日分别 | | | | 为1590元/吨、1600元/吨，日环比均继续下调10元/吨。基本面来看，尿素供应水平 | | | 尿素 | 继续回升，行业日产量昨日20.44万吨，日环比增0.11万吨。需求端情绪继续回暖， | 宽幅 震荡 | | | 昨日主流地区产销率多数攀升至100%以上，部分地区超200%，但区域间仍有分化 | | | | ，少数地区仍不足100%。整体来看，随着厂家不 下调出 价格，市场低价成交明 | | | | 显好转。但当前供应水平不 提升，国内供需压力仍偏高。国 市场方面多等待印 | | | | 结 出 ，市场观望氛围浓厚。预计期货盘面延续坚挺震荡趋势，关注成本、 | | | | 及出 、现货成交方面 否有共振机会。 | | | | 周一 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 17, 2025, the 2601 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 9% to 95,200 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 86,150 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 83,800 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 800 yuan/ton to 77,280 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 217 tons to 26,953 tons [3]. - On the supply side, production remained flat while imports increased. The weekly production increased slightly month - on - month, with little change in domestic production in November compared to the previous month. In October, Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China increased by 46% month - on - month to 16,200 tons. On the demand side, the demand for lithium carbonate from ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate in November increased by 4% month - on - month to 114,600 tons. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of lithium carbonate has been decreasing for 13 consecutive weeks to 120,500 tons, and the inventory turnover days dropped to a new low of 28.1 days since the listing of futures, with a relatively fast de - stocking speed in the downstream [3]. - Currently, the long - short game in the market has intensified, with short - term resonance between stocks and commodities. The core reason for being bullish on the fundamentals is that in November, the inventory has been decreasing at a relatively fast pace, the warehouse receipt inventory remains low, the ore price is still firm, and the expected prosperity of the energy storage end and the strengthening of related material prices have increased the demand for inventory replenishment in each link and raw materials. However, several points need attention: First, as prices rise, spot trading has become sluggish, but the supply side is expected to increase the operating rate to some extent, and the gap in December may narrow compared to November. Second, there is a mismatch between the phased terminal performance and market expectations. Affected by the project cycle, the newly commissioned scale in October decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month. In October, the retail sales of new energy vehicles decreased by about 1.3% month - on - month, and the power end may face an off - season in the first quarter after the pre - consumption this year. Third, the actual resumption of production of lithium mines in Jiangxi is still uncertain, with a 10 - working - day document publicity period and the specific time node unknown. Fourth, the current weighted contract positions of lithium carbonate exceed 1.1 million lots, and the main contract positions exceed 550,000 lots, so position disturbances need to be vigilant [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Futures, spot prices, and warehouse receipt inventory: The 2601 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 9% to 95,200 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 217 tons to 26,953 tons [3]. - Supply, demand, and inventory: On the supply side, production was flat with increased imports. In October, Chile's exports to China increased by 46% to 16,200 tons. On the demand side, November demand increased by 4% to 114,600 tons. The social inventory decreased for 13 consecutive weeks to 120,500 tons, and the inventory turnover days dropped to 28.1 days [3]. - Market situation: The long - short game intensified, with short - term resonance between stocks and commodities. Bullish fundamentals are due to fast de - stocking, low warehouse receipt inventory, and firm ore prices. However, there are concerns such as sluggish spot trading, potential supply increase, terminal - market expectation mismatch, uncertain resumption of Jiangxi lithium mines, and large contract positions [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Price changes: Most products in the lithium - battery industry chain showed price increases on November 17, 2025, compared to November 14. For example, the main contract closing price of futures increased by 7,840 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium - related ores, lithium salts, and some lithium - battery materials also rose. Some products like certain ternary precursors and battery cells remained unchanged [5]. - Price differences: The battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium carbonate price difference decreased by 200 yuan/ton, and the CIF China - Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide price difference decreased by 455 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium - bearing ores such as lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: The price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc., are presented from 2024 to 2025 [10]. - Price differences: Charts display the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc., from 2024 to 2025 [17]. - Precursor and cathode materials: The price trends of ternary precursors and cathode materials such as ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate are shown from 2024 to 2025 [24][26]. - Lithium - battery prices: The price trends of lithium - battery cells and batteries such as 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, etc., are presented from 2024 to 2025 [32]. - Inventory: The inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other sectors are shown from March to November 2025 [37]. - Production cost: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [42]. 3.4 Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metal researcher, etc. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, and the team has won many awards [45]. - Wang Heng, a finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [46]. - Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various black commodities, including steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, suggesting that most of these commodities will show a narrow - range consolidation or oscillatory trend in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar market showed obvious gains. The spot price rose, and the inventory decreased. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the cost has strong support for the low - valued rebar price. It is expected to continue narrow - range consolidation [1] - **Iron Ore**: The futures price increased. The supply from Australia and Brazil rebounded, and the demand and inventory both increased. In the short term, the price will oscillate [1] - **Coking Coal**: The futures price went up. The supply side has tight inventory in some areas, and the demand side has a certain replenishment demand. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation [1] - **Coke**: The futures price rose. After the fourth price increase, the profit of coke enterprises recovered, and the demand from steel mills increased. However, the terminal finished product market is weak, so it is expected to oscillate widely [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The futures price oscillated strongly. The cost support is strong, and the supply is decreasing while the demand is weak. It will maintain an oscillatory pattern [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price oscillated strongly. The production decreased, the cost is relatively firm, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be supported and oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production changes in the main production areas [1] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: Data on contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 10 months) and basis for various commodities (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc.) are provided, along with their latest values and环比 changes [4] - **Profit and Spread**: Information on profits (such as rebar disk profit, long - process profit) and spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) is presented, including their latest values and环比 changes [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][14] - **3.3.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [16][17][18][20][21][23] - **3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts show the inter - period contract spreads (such as 01 - 05, 05 - 10) for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][27][32][33][34][37][38] - **3.3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Charts present the inter - variety contract spreads (such as main contract coil - rebar spread, main contract rebar - iron ore ratio) for different commodities [42][43][44][45] - **3.3.5 Rebar Profit**: Charts show the rebar main contract disk profit, long - process calculation profit, and short - process calculation profit from 2020 to 2025 [47][48][50][51] 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional backgrounds and qualifications in the black commodity research field [53][54]

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 11 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 市场全天震荡调整，三大指数小幅下跌。个股涨跌互现，今日成交 1.93 万 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 亿。截止收盘沪指跌 0.46%，深成指跌 0.11%，创业板指跌 0.2%。中美元首 近日于韩国举行会谈，双边关系向着稳中向好的方向迈进，有利于我国需求 总量的提升，也有利于 A 股科技股继续对标美股估值。《中国共产党第二十 | | | | 届中央委员会第四次全体会议公报》聚焦几大主线：（1）"抓住新一轮科技 | | | | 革命和产业变革历史机遇"并形成现代化产业体系；（2）继续扩大内需，"促 | | | 股指 | 进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动"；（3）继续深化改革和扩大开放。《公 | 震荡 | | | 报》内容符合市场预期，提振市场信心，预计未来结构化行情仍将延续。但 | | | | 当前科创指数估值处于历史极值位置，盘面上谨慎追高。短期来看，三季报 | | | | 结束发布，重要会议后市场关注点可能重新回到基本面上来，A 股非金融三 | | | | 季报 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate due to weak supply and demand and the impact of sanctions on Russian oil companies [1]. - Fuel oil prices are likely to oscillate. The spread between low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain at a relatively high level, and attention should be paid to the impact of attacks on Russian oil terminals [1]. - Asphalt prices are viewed with a bearish bias in the short - term as supply and demand both decline, with the supply decline being smaller than the demand decline [3]. - Polyester prices are expected to be volatile. PTA prices may show strong fluctuations, while ethylene glycol prices will likely have a wide - range adjustment [3][5]. - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate as supply pressure increases and downstream demand is weak, but winter storage demand provides some support [5]. - Methanol prices are expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation. Iranian supply may decline, and port inventories are likely to start decreasing from mid - December to early January [5][7]. - Polyolefin prices are expected to approach a bottom - level oscillation. Supply will remain high, and demand will weaken, but low valuations may prompt downstream buying [7]. - PVC prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. Although the fundamentals are bearish, the narrowing of the hedging space due to the repair of the basis may limit further price drops [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, WTI December contract closed down $0.18 to $59.91 per barrel (down 0.3%), Brent January contract closed down $0.19 to $64.2 per barrel (down 0.3%), and SC2512 closed up 1.3 yuan to 460 yuan per barrel (up 0.28%). US sanctions on Russian oil companies are taking effect, and the price of Russia's flagship Urals crude has dropped to a three - year low. Current oil prices lack a clear driver under the weak supply - demand situation [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the SHFE closed down 0.92% at 2,593 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2601 closed up 0.43% at 3,236 yuan per ton. Singapore is expected to receive 2.9 - 3 million tons of low - sulfur fuel oil from the West in November. Adequate supply is offset by relatively healthy downstream demand [1]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2601 on the SHFE closed up 0.13% at 3,032 yuan per ton. Refineries are releasing a large number of low - price forward contracts, putting pressure on spot prices. Supply may decline slightly due to falling profits, and downstream demand is limited due to weather conditions [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed down 0.17% at 4,692 yuan per ton, EG2601 closed up 0.41% at 3,938 yuan per ton, and PX futures contract 601 closed down 0.15% at 6,796 yuan per ton. Some polyester and ethylene glycol plants have changes in their operating schedules. Indian cancellation of BIS certification is beneficial for PTA and its downstream exports [3][5]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main natural rubber contract RU2601 closed up 100 yuan to 15,315 yuan per ton, NR main contract closed up 90 yuan to 12,355 yuan per ton, and BR main contract closed up 10 yuan to 10,455 yuan per ton. Rubber supply is increasing seasonally, and downstream demand is weak, but winter storage demand supports prices [5]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,012 yuan per ton. Domestic supply has recovered to a high level, but Iranian supply may decline in late November to December. Port inventories are expected to start decreasing from mid - December to early January [5][7]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6,380 - 6,580 yuan per ton. Production profits are negative across different production methods. Supply will remain high, and demand will weaken after the e - commerce activities [7]. - **PVC**: On Monday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China showed different trends. Supply remains high, domestic demand is slowing, and exports are cautiously optimistic. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [7][8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data for various energy and chemical products on November 18, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9]. 3.3 Market News - A preliminary survey shows that US crude and distillate inventories are expected to decrease last week, while gasoline inventories are expected to increase. As of the week ending November 14, US crude inventories are estimated to have decreased by about 2 million barrels [13]. - The price of Russia's flagship Urals crude in the Black Sea has dropped to $36.61 per barrel, a three - year low, due to upcoming US sanctions on Russian oil companies [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for multiple energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [15][16][17] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts for various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc., over different time periods [32][34][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report includes charts of spreads between different contracts for fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [44][46][50] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Charts display spreads between different varieties, such as crude oil's internal - external spread, B - W spread, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spread, etc. [62][64][66] - **4.5 Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of LLDPE, PP, etc. [71]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Short - term fluctuations in the steel plate are limited, and it may continue to trade in a narrow range. The iron ore price shows an oscillating trend. The coking coal and coke plates are expected to run in a wide - range oscillation in the short term. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are also in an oscillating pattern, with limited fundamental driving forces [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Steel - The rebar futures market had a narrow - range oscillation. The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3046 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton or 0.26% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 10,700 lots in positions. Spot prices were stable with some increases, and trading volume rebounded. This week, the national rebar production decreased by 85,400 tons to 2 million tons, social inventory decreased by 99,500 tons to 4.1575 million tons, factory inventory decreased by 64,200 tons to 1.6042 million tons, and apparent demand decreased by 21,500 tons to 216,370 tons. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the short - term plate may continue to trade in a narrow range [1]. Iron Ore - The main contract i2601 of iron ore futures showed an oscillating trend, closing at 772.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 220,000 lots and a decrease of 7,000 lots in positions. The supply from Australia and Brazil continued to decline, while that from other countries increased. The pig iron output increased by 26,600 tons to 2.3688 million tons. The inventory of 47 ports increased by 1.8871 million tons to 158.1284 million tons, and the steel mill inventory increased by 660,000 tons. In the short term, the ore price will oscillate [1]. Coking Coal - The coking coal plate declined. The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1214 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton or 0.41%, with a decrease of 991 lots in positions. The price of some coking coal varieties decreased. The winter safety inspection of coal mines was upgraded, and the downstream coking enterprises slowed down the restocking rhythm. Although some steel mills accepted the fourth - round price increase of coke, the coking coal demand is expected to increase, and the short - term plate is expected to run in a wide - range oscillation [1]. Coke - The coke plate declined. The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1686 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.21%, with a decrease of 164 lots in positions. The spot price of port coke decreased. The coking enterprises' losses expanded, and the production capacity utilization rate and output decreased slightly. The steel mills' demand for coke declined, but the inventory in steel mills was still at a medium - low level. The short - term plate is expected to run in a wide - range oscillation [1]. Manganese Silicon - On Thursday, the manganese silicon futures price weakened in an oscillating manner, with the main contract closing at 5756 yuan/ton, down 0.24% month - on - month, and the positions of the main contract increased by 8209 lots to 362,200 lots. The market price of manganese silicon in various regions was 5550 - 5720 yuan/ton. The production of manganese silicon decreased slightly, the number of mainstream steel tenders decreased, the cost was supported, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The overall situation is an oscillating pattern [3]. Ferrosilicon - On Thursday, the ferrosilicon futures price weakened in an oscillating manner, with the main contract closing at 5506 yuan/ton, up 0.22% month - on - month, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 13,709 lots to 149,200 lots. The aggregated price of ferrosilicon in various regions was about 5130 - 5200 yuan/ton. New production capacity was put into operation, the steel demand was weak, the non - steel demand was okay, the number of mainstream steel tenders decreased, and the inventory continued to accumulate. It is expected to follow the overall black market fluctuations in the short term [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the latest and month - on - month data of contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as profit, spread data [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts showing the closing prices, basis, inter - delivery contract spreads, inter - variety contract spreads, and rebar profits of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, helping to visually analyze the price trends and relationships of these commodities [6][17][26][43][48]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team of Everbright Futures includes members such as Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich industry experience and professional qualifications [54][55].