1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Corn**: This week, the corn futures and spot prices increased in tandem. Affected by the rising port quotations, the corn futures price continued to rise. The main 2601 contract of corn increased with a reduction in positions, and due to favorable policy expectations, the corn futures and spot prices rebounded jointly. It is recommended to continue participating in short - term long positions [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans reached a 17 - month high. Analysts expect the USDA to lower the US soybean harvest forecast. The domestic soybean meal continued its oscillating and strengthening trend due to cost support. The strategy is to hold futures long positions and sell out - of - the - money call options [1]. - **Oils**: On Thursday, BMD palm oil rose. The domestic rapeseed oil continued to rise, while palm oil showed weak growth. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions [1]. - **Eggs**: On Thursday, egg futures prices continued to correct. The spot egg prices continued to oscillate. Before February next year, the new supply will continue to decline. If the production capacity is eliminated at an accelerated pace, consider going long at low prices; otherwise, treat it with a wide - range oscillation mindset [1]. - **Pigs**: On Thursday, the near - and far - month contracts of live pigs rebounded jointly. The spot pig prices continued to be weak. The far - month 2609 contract of live pigs is expected to continue to oscillate and strengthen, and attention should be paid to the pressure of the 40 - day moving average on the weekly line [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The CONAB monthly report predicts that the soybean production in Brazil in the 2025/26 season will reach 177.6016 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.1199 million tons or 3.6%. The sown area is expected to reach 49.0634 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 1.7169 million hectares or 3.6%. The yield per unit area is expected to be 3.62 tons per hectare, a year - on - year decrease of 2.0 kg per hectare or 0.1% [2]. - **Winter Wheat Sowing**: As of November 12, the sowing of winter wheat across the country has reached 75%. In the Huang - Huai - Hai region, it has exceeded 75%. By province, the sowing progress in Henan is nearly 70%, in Shandong it has exceeded 80%, in Anhui it is nearly 70%, in Jiangsu it is 55%, in Shaanxi it has exceeded 85%, and in Shanxi it is 85% [3]. - **Sino - US Agricultural Trade**: China will continue to maintain an open and cooperative attitude and deepen mutually beneficial cooperation with global trading partners in agricultural product trade [3]. 3.2 Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report presents the 1 - 5 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but specific data analysis is not provided [5][6][9][11]. - **Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but specific data analysis is not provided [14][17][18][23]. 3.3 Research Team Members - **Wang Na**: The director of the agricultural product research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, the leader of the top ten research and investment teams at DCE. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in the Futures Daily and Securities Times' Best Futures Analyst selection for many years [27]. - **Hou Xueling**: A soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, with more than a decade of futures trading experience. She has also won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in relevant selections for many years [27]. - **Kong Hailan**: A researcher in the egg and live pig industries at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has participated in many media interviews [27].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton is expected to show an oscillating trend. ICE US cotton dropped 0.35% to 64.58 cents per pound on Thursday, and CF601 decreased 0.11% to 13,490 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 1,984 lots to 562,900 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,380 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan from the previous day. Macro factors still cause disturbances in the international market. The US government ended its longest shutdown, but the expectation of interest - rate cuts is still volatile. The probability of a 25bp interest - rate cut by the Fed in December dropped to nearly 50%. The long - awaited USDA monthly report is about to be released. It is expected that the inventory - to - sales ratio of US cotton in the 2025/26 season will decline year - on - year. In the domestic market, the center of Zhengzhou cotton futures prices has moved slightly lower, mainly due to supply pressure. However, there is some support below, and the probability of breaking the previous low again is low. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton is under pressure above and may adjust, but the amplitude is expected to be limited, showing an oscillating and slightly weak trend [1]. - Sugar is also expected to oscillate. The French Ministry of Agriculture lowered the beet production forecast for the 2025/26 season to 33.7 million tons, 500,000 tons less than the previous estimate. The estimated beet production is still 3.5% higher than that in the 2024/25 season and 8.7% higher than the average of the past five years. The spot price of sugar in Guangxi increased by 20 yuan per ton, while that in Yunnan remained stable. The international raw sugar price fell back after rising and closed below 14.5 cents per pound. The domestic sugar futures market is relatively strong, trying to break through the 5,500 - yuan - per - ton mark. The current market is regarded as a small - scale rebound, and caution is needed regarding the upside [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Cotton**: ICE US cotton and CF601 both declined. The main contract position decreased. The spot price index dropped. International macro factors are volatile, and the USDA report is awaited. Domestic supply pressure is the main factor affecting prices, but there is support below. Short - term adjustment is expected with limited amplitude [1]. - **Sugar**: The French beet production forecast was lowered. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends. International raw sugar prices fell back, and the domestic market is trying to break through a key level, with a small - scale rebound expected [1]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 5 yuan, up 5 yuan. The main contract basis was 1,336 yuan, up 54 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang was 14,614 yuan per ton, down 56 yuan, and the national average was 14,851 yuan per ton, up 9 yuan [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 73 yuan, up 5 yuan. Data for the main contract basis and spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were missing [2]. Market Information - On November 13, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 4,180, an increase of 296 from the previous trading day, with 878 valid forecasts. The arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions varied, with Xinjiang at 14,614 yuan per ton, Henan at 14,873 yuan per ton, Shandong at 14,851 yuan per ton, and Zhejiang at 14,950 yuan per ton [2]. - On November 13, the yarn comprehensive load remained unchanged at 51.2, the yarn comprehensive inventory remained unchanged at 26.3, the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load remained unchanged at 51.9, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory decreased by 0.1 to 29.3 [3]. - On November 13, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7,721, with 1,183 valid forecasts [4]. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts show the historical trends of cotton and sugar, including the closing prices, basis, 1 - 5 spreads, warehouse receipts, and effective forecasts of their main contracts, providing data support for analyzing the market trends of these two soft commodities [6][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 13, industrial silicon showed a weak oscillation. The main contract 2601 closed at 9,145 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.22%. The position increased by 5,622 lots to 268,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan was 9,692 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product 421 remained stable at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 205 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon showed a strong oscillation. The main contract 2601 closed at 54,195 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 3.69%. The position increased by 3,409 lots to 144,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon was 52,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was 52,000 yuan/ton. The spot discount to the main contract widened to 2,195 yuan/ton [2]. - Silicon plants in the southwest region have significantly reduced production. However, due to simultaneous production cuts in the downstream, the inventory reduction rhythm has not been achieved. The futures market has priced in the production - cut expectation in advance and has pulled back due to the drag of crystalline silicon [2]. - In November, the production schedules of polysilicon materials and downstream silicon wafers have both declined. The planned production - cut scale of silicon materials exceeds that of the downstream. However, under the strong quota limit of silicon wafers, the production - cut rhythm is ahead of the upstream [2]. - As the impact of the polysilicon production capacity platform news fades, the short - term weak reality has led the futures market to enter a low - level consolidation stage. A industry meeting was held, and CCTV reported on the same day that the anti - involution of the photovoltaic industry had achieved remarkable results, which diluted the negative sentiment related to the production capacity platform [2]. - The polysilicon futures market is dominated by multiple news, and its volatility continues to increase. It is recommended that investors exercise caution [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,145 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 9,155 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices remained stable. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 549 to 45,387, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 5,365 to 230,900 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 4,700 tons to 447,700 tons [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 735 yuan/ton to 54,195 yuan/ton, while the near - month contract remained unchanged at 51,335 yuan/ton. All spot prices remained stable. The polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 720 to 9,130, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 0.8 million tons to 29.55 million tons, and the total social inventory of polysilicon increased by 0.1 million tons to 27.7 million tons [3]. - **Organic Silicon**: The spot prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, 107 glue, and dimethyl silicone oil all increased, with increases of 1,400 yuan/ton, 1,000 yuan/ton, 1,000 yuan/ton, and 2,200 yuan/ton respectively [3]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, price differences between grades, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][11]. 3.2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][16][18]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [22][25]. 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [28][30][35].

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 1 1 月 1 4 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 745.5 | 747.5 | -2.0 | I05-I09 | 22.5 | 23.0 | -0.5 | | I09 | 723.0 | 724.5 | -1.5 | I09-I01 | -49.5 | -49.5 | 0.0 | | I01 | 772.5 | 774.0 | -1.5 | I01-I05 | 27.0 | 26.5 | 0.5 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） p 2 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-210 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Urea is expected to have a firm and volatile trend. Although the market sentiment has slightly improved with the release of the fourth export quota, the downstream follow - up sentiment is still cautious, and the domestic demand support is weak. The fundamental pressure remains, and the upward momentum of the futures market is not obvious [2]. - Soda ash is also expected to show a firm and volatile trend. The supply has slightly declined this week, and the inventory of the middle and upper reaches has decreased. The demand is weakly stable. The futures market is relatively active, but more drivers are needed for continuous upward movement [2]. - Glass is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating state. The supply is stable, the demand follow - up is cautious, and the glass factory may continue to reduce prices to destock. The market drive is limited, and the futures price has fallen to a low - valuation range [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Viewpoints - **Urea**: On Thursday, the spot price was mostly stable with slight fluctuations in some areas. The supply level fluctuated slightly, with a daily output of 19.75 tons on November 13, a decrease of 0.06 tons from the previous day. The demand sentiment slowed down, with an average production - sales rate of only 30% in the domestic mainstream areas. The market sentiment improved with the export quota announcement, but the downstream was still cautious [2]. - **Soda ash**: On Thursday, the spot price was basically stable, and the trader's quotation increased with the futures market sentiment. This week, the supply level slightly declined, with the industry operating rate dropping by 0.87 percentage points and the production decreasing by 1.01%. The enterprise inventory decreased slightly by 0.4%, and the social inventory decreased by more than 20,000 tons. The demand was weakly stable [2]. - **Glass**: On Thursday, the spot price continued to decline. The supply remained stable, with a daily melting volume of 15.91 tons. The demand follow - up was cautious, with a production - sales rate of 85% - 95% in the mainstream areas. The glass factory's inventory increased by 0.18% this week, and there is a possibility of price - cutting to destock [2]. Market Information - **Urea**: On November 13, the futures warehouse receipts were 6,958, unchanged from the previous day, with 440 valid forecasts. The daily output was 19.75 tons, a decrease of 0.06 tons from the previous day and an increase of 1.39 tons compared to the same period last year. The opening rate was 84.43%, 3.19 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of November 12, the enterprise inventory was 148.36 tons, a decrease of 94,500 tons and 5.99% week - on - week [5][6]. - **Soda ash and Glass**: On November 13, the soda ash futures warehouse receipts were 5,804, a decrease of 547 from the previous day, with 1,354 valid forecasts; the glass futures warehouse receipts were 495, a decrease of 3 from the previous day. The soda ash production in the week ending November 13 was 739,300 tons, a decrease of 7,600 tons and 1.01% week - on - week. The capacity utilization rate was 84.80%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points week - on - week. As of November 13, the soda ash factory inventory was 1.7073 million tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from Monday and a decrease of 6,900 tons and 0.40% from the previous Thursday. The average price of the float glass market on November 13 was 1,143 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton day - on - day. As of November 13, the inventory of domestic float glass sample enterprises was 63.247 million weight boxes, an increase of 111,000 weight boxes and 0.18% week - on - week, and 33.61% higher than the same period last year [8][9]. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts including the closing prices, basis, trading volume and positions, spreads, spot price trends, and futures price spreads of urea, soda ash, and glass, with all chart data sourced from iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [11][24]. Resource品 Team Research Members Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on sugar industry research, with rich research achievements and many awards [26]. - Zhang Linglu is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for the research of futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass, and has won many honors [26]. - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy, and has won relevant honors [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 13, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2601 contract rose 1.39% to 87,840 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,050 yuan/ton to 84,350 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 900 yuan/ton to 82,000 yuan/ton, and the battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 200 yuan/ton to 76,180 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 779 tons to 27,508 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly production increased by 11 tons to 21,545 tons. In November, the expected production of lithium carbonate is expected to decline by 0.2% to 92,080 tons. On the demand side, the production of ternary materials in November increased by 1% to 85,000 tons, and the production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4% to 410,000 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory decreased by 3,481 tons to 120,472 tons [3]. - Demand is both the driver of price and a strong support below the price. There are significant differences between bulls and bears in the current futures price fluctuations. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and positions, as well as the actual resumption time of lithium ore projects in Jiangxi and the potential supply growth after resumption, and the possible off - season in the power sector in the first quarter after the pre - consumption this year [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures and Lithium Ore Prices**: The closing price of the main futures contract rose by 1,260 yuan/ton to 87,840 yuan/ton, and the continuous contract rose by 1,480 yuan/ton to 86,400 yuan/ton. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 17 US dollars/ton to 1,001 US dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) rose by 30 yuan/ton to 1,450 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Salt and Related Product Prices**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,050 yuan/ton to 84,350 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 900 yuan/ton to 82,000 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 200 yuan/ton to 76,180 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose by 5,500 yuan/ton to 131,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Price Differences**: The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 150 yuan/ton to 2,350 yuan/ton, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 850 yuan/ton to - 8,170 yuan/ton [5]. - **Prices of Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) increased by 100 yuan/ton to 105,500 yuan/ton, and the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) rose by 1,000 yuan/ton to 154,325 yuan/ton [5]. - **Battery Prices**: The prices of various types of battery cells and batteries remained unchanged on November 7, 2025, compared with October 31, 2025 [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: The report provides charts of the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%, 2.0% - 2.5%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts show the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [10][12][14]. - **Price Differences**: There are charts depicting the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc., from 2024 to 2025 [17][21]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts display the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [24][26][29]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt acid lithium battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [32][34]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from March 27, 2025, to November 13, 2025 [37][39]. - **Production Costs**: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, 外购锂云母精矿, and 外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated higher, with domestic spot refined copper imports remaining in a loss. The Fed Chair cooled the December interest - rate cut expectation, showing increasing internal differences. The US House will vote on a bill to end the government shutdown. Domestically, the central bank emphasized policy balance. LME copper inventories remained at 136,250 tons, Comex inventories increased by 1,156 tons, SHFE copper warrants increased by 1,124 tons, and BC copper warrants increased by 575 tons. Downstream demand was restricted by high - price concerns. LME is seeking opinions on new rules. Short - term outlook is somewhat optimistic, but overall, it may show a high - level震荡 market as the off - season approaches [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated stronger. Alumina factory profits are being compressed, with occasional production cuts but no large - scale reduction for long - term supply. Alumina inventories are increasing. The internal and external market situations are different. The US interest - rate cut expectation is rising, while the domestic demand is weakening and the processing end is facing environmental restrictions. Electrolytic aluminum is in a multi - factor situation, likely to continue high - level adjustment in the short term. Aluminum alloy follows the adjustment [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. LME nickel inventories decreased by 144 tons, and SHFE warrants increased by 32,694 tons. The nickel - iron to stainless - steel industry chain is weak, with nickel - iron prices falling and stainless - steel inventories rising slightly. In the new - energy industry chain, the discount coefficient increased slightly, but the production of ternary precursors decreased in November. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is obvious, and the price may fluctuate, with attention to inventory changes [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Analyzed macro factors, inventory changes, demand, policy, and market sentiment, concluding that short - term is somewhat optimistic but overall may be a high - level震荡 market [1]. - **Aluminum**: Discussed price trends, factory profits, inventory, and market differences at home and abroad, suggesting short - term high - level adjustment [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Considered price changes, inventory, and industry chain situations, indicating price fluctuations due to inventory pressure [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Provided price changes of various copper products, inventory changes in different markets, and other data such as import and export profits [4]. - **Lead**: Showed price changes of lead products, inventory changes, and import and export profits [4]. - **Aluminum**: Presented price, raw material, inventory, and import and export profit data of aluminum and related products [5]. - **Nickel**: Included price changes of nickel products, inventory changes, and industry chain product price data [5]. - **Zinc**: Gave price, inventory, and processing fee data of zinc and related products [7]. - **Tin**: Provided price, inventory, and import and export profit data of tin and related products [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.1 Spot Premium**: Presented spot premium charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][11][16]. - **3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Showed SHFE near - far month spread charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [17][22][24]. - **3.3 LME Inventory**: Displayed LME inventory charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [25][27][29]. - **3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Presented SHFE inventory charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36]. - **3.5 Social Inventory**: Showed social inventory charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [38][40][42]. - **3.6 Smelting Profit**: Displayed charts of copper concentrate index, copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 3.4 Team Introduction - Introduced the members of the non - ferrous metals team, including their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional achievements [50][51][52]

Group 1: Research Views - The stock market showed a strong upward trend throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten - year high and the ChiNext Index rising over 2%. Nearly 4,000 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets closed higher, and over a hundred stocks hit the daily limit. The trading volume on that day was 2.07 trillion yuan. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.73%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.78%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.55% [1]. - The recent meeting between Chinese and US leaders in South Korea is conducive to the improvement of China's total demand and the valuation of A - share technology stocks compared to US stocks. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China focuses on several main lines, which boosts market confidence and is expected to continue the structured market. However, the valuation of the Sci - tech Innovation Index is at a historical extreme, so be cautious about chasing high prices. In the short term, after the release of the third - quarter reports, the market may refocus on fundamentals. The cumulative year - on - year revenue growth rate of non - financial A - shares in the third - quarter reports was +0.3%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent was +1.65%. ROE (TTM) was 6.5%, still in a low - level oscillation range [1]. - For treasury bond futures, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, while the 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts remained basically stable. The central bank conducted 190 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on November 13, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%. The net injection was 92.8 billion yuan. DR001 was 1.32% and DR007 was 1.49%. The central bank's resumption of treasury bond trading strengthens the expectation of reasonable and sufficient funds, which is beneficial to the bond market. With the increase in local government bonds and the implementation of 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments, the economic outlook in the fourth quarter is stable. The pressure to achieve the annual economic growth target is not great, so the short - term necessity for the central bank to cut interest rates is low. Affected by the stock - bond "seesaw" effect, the bond market is expected to continue the oscillation pattern [1][2]. Group 2: Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - IH rose from 3,042.8 to 3,068.8, an increase of 26.0 points or 0.85% [3]. - IF rose from 4,628.0 to 4,677.0, an increase of 49.0 points or 1.06% [3]. - IC rose from 7,155.2 to 7,269.0, an increase of 113.8 points or 1.59% [3]. - IM rose from 7,369.8 to 7,478.4, an increase of 108.6 points or 1.47% [3]. Stock Indexes - The Shanghai 50 Index rose from 3,044.3 to 3,073.7, an increase of 29.4 points or 0.96% [3]. - The CSI 300 Index rose from 4,645.9 to 4,702.1, an increase of 56.2 points or 1.21% [3]. - The CSI 500 Index rose from 7,243.2 to 7,355.3, an increase of 112.0 points or 1.55% [3]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose from 7,486.4 to 7,590.6, an increase of 104.2 points or 1.39% [3]. Treasury Bond Futures - TS fell from 102.47 to 102.46, a decrease of 0.01 points or - 0.01% [3]. - TF fell from 105.97 to 105.89, a decrease of 0.085 points or - 0.08% [3]. - T fell from 108.52 to 108.41, a decrease of 0.11 points or - 0.10% [3]. - TL fell from 116.45 to 116.13, a decrease of 0.32 points or - 0.27% [3]. Group 3: Market News - The China Financial Regulatory Administration will soon release the newly revised "Administrative Measures for Commercial Bank Merger and Acquisition Loans" to support the mergers, reorganizations, and transformation and upgrading of various enterprises, including science and technology innovation enterprises. The administration is also collaborating with other departments to study policies for the high - quality development of science and technology insurance [4]. Group 4: Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report presents the historical price trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the historical trends of their monthly basis [6][7][9]. Treasury Bond Futures - It shows the historical price trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, the historical trends of basis for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, the historical trends of inter - period spreads for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][14][18][19]. Exchange Rates - The report includes the historical trends of the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, 1 - month and 3 - month forward exchange rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, and US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate [22][23][26][27]. Group 5: Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the current director of the macro - finance research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with futures practice qualification number F3060829 and futures trading consultation qualification number Z0015271 [29]. - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures, and is responsible for macro - fundamental quantification, key industry sector research, index earnings report analysis, and market capital tracking. His futures practice qualification number is F03087149, and his futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0019537 [29].

1. Index Movements - On November 13th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.73% to close at 4029.5 points with a trading volume of 876.401 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.78% to close at 13476.52 points with a trading volume of 1165.561 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.39% with a trading volume of 420.596 billion yuan, opening at 7483.66, closing at 7590.58, with a daily high of 7604.89 and a low of 7475.51 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 1.55% with a trading volume of 339.596 billion yuan, opening at 7243.64, closing at 7355.29, with a daily high of 7366.41 and a low of 7243.64 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.96% with a trading volume of 132.481 billion yuan, opening at 3044.92, closing at 3073.67, with a daily high of 3075.21 and a low of 3044.92 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 1.21% with a trading volume of 510.061 billion yuan, opening at 4643.79, closing at 4702.07, with a daily high of 4703.49 and a low of 4643.79 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 104.2 points from the previous close, with sectors such as power equipment, basic chemicals, and non - ferrous metals significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 112.04 points from the previous close, with power equipment, electronics, and non - ferrous metals significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The SSE 300 rose 56.16 points from the previous close, with power equipment and non - ferrous metals significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 29.37 points from the previous close, with non - ferrous metals, electronics, and pharmaceutical biology significantly pulling the index up [2]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 had an average daily basis of - 31.09, IM01 of - 119.2, IM02 of - 348.14, and IM03 of - 575.97 [13]. - IC00 had an average daily basis of - 22.36, IC01 of - 91.63, IC02 of - 270.21, and IC03 of - 468.58 [13]. - IF00 had an average daily basis of - 5.51, IF01 of - 21.1, IF02 of - 52.38, and IF03 of - 96.16 [13]. - IH00 had an average daily basis of 0.93, IH01 of - 1.76, IH02 of - 6.62, and IH03 of - 14.39 [13]. 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - Data on the roll - over point differences and annualized costs of IM, IC, IF, and IH at different time points are provided, including specific values for different contract combinations (e.g., IM00 - 01, IM00 - 02, etc.) [26][27][28][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price will continue to fluctuate. The IEA warns that the global oil market will face a large - scale surplus of up to 4.09 million barrels per day next year [1]. - The prices of fuel oil (FU and LU) are expected to be bearish, with Asian low - sulfur market facing supply and demand dilemmas and high - sulfur market supported by stable demand but with sufficient supply [1][3]. - The asphalt price is temporarily viewed bearishly due to abundant market resources, weak downstream demand, and supply decline being less than demand decline [3]. - PX&TA are expected to fluctuate following the cost side in the short term, while the ethylene glycol price is expected to be under pressure with high supply and limited demand growth [3][5]. - The rubber price is expected to fluctuate due to increased supply and weak overseas demand [5]. - The methanol price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, with potential supply changes due to Iranian device conditions and port inventory trends [5][6]. - The polyolefin price is expected to bottom - oscillate, with a shift to a supply - strong and demand - weak situation but with valuation - related factors limiting further decline [6]. - The PVC price is expected to bottom - oscillate, with high - level supply, weak domestic demand, and potential export - market changes [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI 12 - month contract rose 0.2 dollars to 58.69 dollars/barrel (0.34% increase), Brent 1 - month contract rose 0.3 dollars to 63.01 dollars/barrel (0.48% increase), and SC2512 fell 2.8 yuan/barrel to 451.6 yuan/barrel (0.62% decrease). US commercial crude inventory increased by 6.4 million barrels to 427.58 million barrels as of November 7, higher than the market expectation. The IEA predicts a large - scale surplus in the global oil market next year [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, FU2601 fell 3.71% to 2595 yuan/ton, LU2601 fell 4.41% to 3164 yuan/ton. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories increased. Asian low - sulfur market has supply and demand issues, while high - sulfur market is supported by stable demand [1][3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, BU2601 fell 1.05% to 3029 yuan/ton. This week, domestic asphalt shipments decreased by 18.7%, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased. In November, production and consumption both declined, with supply decline less than demand [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 rose 0.64% to 4700 yuan/ton, EG2601 rose 0.03% to 3892 yuan/ton, and PX601 rose 0.92% to 6836 yuan/ton. Some glycol devices are under maintenance. PX&TA are expected to follow the cost side, and ethylene glycol is under supply pressure [3][5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, RU2601 rose 170 yuan/ton to 15390 yuan/ton, NR rose 220 yuan/ton to 12400 yuan/ton, and BR rose 50 yuan/ton to 10480 yuan/ton. Rubber supply increased, and overseas demand weakened [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply is currently at a high level, and Iranian devices may stop in November - December, leading to a potential decline in January arrivals. Port inventory is expected to start de - stocking from mid - December to early January [5][6]. - **Polyolefin**: The price of polyolefin products shows a downward trend in profit. It is expected to shift to a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, but valuation factors may limit further decline [6]. - **PVC**: The price oscillated on Thursday. Supply is at a high level, domestic demand is weak, and the cancellation of BIS certification may boost exports, but anti - dumping needs attention [6][7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the basis data of various energy - chemical products on November 14, 2025, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and the change of basis rate compared with previous days, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The EIA report shows that last week, US crude inventory increased, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased. As of November 7, US commercial crude inventory increased by 6.4 million barrels to 427.58 million barrels, and Cushing crude inventory decreased by 346,000 barrels [12]. - The IEA warns that the global oil market will face a large - scale surplus of up to 4.09 million barrels per day next year, which is equivalent to nearly 4% of global oil demand and much higher than other forecasts [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are 29 figures showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [14][15][16] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: There are 31 figures showing the basis of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [30][34][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are 15 figures showing the spreads between different contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [42][44][47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: There are 10 figures showing the spreads between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [58][60][63] - **4.5 Production Profits**: There are 2 figures showing the production profits of LLDPE and PP [66]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes members such as Zhong Meiyan (Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director), Du Bingqin (Crude Oil, Gas, etc. Analyst), Di Yilin (Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst), and Peng Haibo (Methanol/Propylene, etc. Analyst), each with rich experience and achievements [71][72][73]