有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜先抑后扬，上涨 0.34%至 9519.5 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力下跌 0.12%至 | | | | | 77820 元/吨；国内现货进口持续亏损。宏观方面，美国 5 月综合、制造业、服务业 | | | | | PMI 均好于预期，受关税政策缓解影响，美国本月的商业活动和产出预期均有所改 | | | | | 善，制造业和服务业呈现同步增长的态势，特别是新订单相对比较强劲。而欧元区 | 5 | | | | 月综合 PMI 从 4 月的 50.4 降至 49.5，制造业的小幅改善被服务业的下跌所抵消。美 | | | | | 欧经济体之间的对比，或有利于美元后期的企稳表现。特朗普减税案在众院涉险过 | | | | 铜 | 关，正提交参议院审议。美联储理事沃勒表示，减税法案引发美债抛售，若关税稳定 | | | | | 在 10%水平，美联储下半年将降息。库存方面，LME 铜库存下降 2300 吨至 166525 | | | | | ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - All three commodities (urea, soda ash, and glass) are rated as "Oscillating" [1] Group 2: Core Views - Urea market is in short - term supply - demand game with clear ceiling for spot prices. Without new drivers, the futures market will continue wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to demand fulfillment and weather [1] - Soda ash market has limited new drivers in the short - term. Futures prices may continue range - bound oscillation, and the long - term pattern remains loose. Monitor industry开工 changes and demand follow - up rhythm [1] - Glass market lacks obvious positive support. With prices at a relative bottom, the market may see some purchasing by industry players. Before clear positive factors emerge, the market will be in bottom - wide range oscillation. Follow downstream low - price purchasing and macro/market sentiment [1] Group 3: Summary by Section Market Information Urea - On May 22, urea futures warehouse receipts were 7573, up 25 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [4] - On May 22, urea daily production was 20.46 tons, down 0.02 tons from the previous day and up 3.12 tons year - on - year. The operating rate was 88.96%, up 8.89 percentage points year - on - year [4] - As of May 22, domestic small - particle urea spot prices in various regions were mostly flat. For example, Shandong was 1880 yuan/ton, Henan was 1890 yuan/ton [4] - As of May 21, domestic urea enterprise inventory was 91.74 tons, up 10.02 tons or 12.26% week - on - week [5] Soda Ash & Glass - On May 22, soda ash futures warehouse receipts were 147, down 2170 from the previous day, with 2711 valid forecasts; glass futures warehouse receipts were 3459, down 109 from the previous day [7] - On May 22, soda ash spot prices in various regions were flat. For example, North China's light soda ash was 1400 yuan/ton, heavy soda ash was 1500 yuan/ton [7] - As of the week of May 22, soda ash production was 66.38 tons, down 1.39 tons or 2.04% week - on - week; the capacity utilization rate was 78.63%, down 1.64 percentage points week - on - week [7] - As of May 22, soda ash factory inventory was 167.68 tons, down 1.07 tons or 0.63% from Monday [8] - On May 22, the average price of the float glass market was 1240 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton day - on - day; the daily production was 15.67 tons, unchanged day - on - day [8] - As of May 22, the inventory of domestic float glass sample enterprises was 6776.9 million weight cases, down 31.3 million weight cases or 0.46% week - on - week, up 13.67% year - on - year. The inventory days were 30.6 days, down 0.4 days from last week [8] Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including those related to the closing prices, basis, trading volume and open interest, and price spreads of urea and soda ash, as well as the price trends of urea and soda ash spot, and the futures price spreads of urea - methanol and glass - soda ash [11][12][17] Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for different aspects of resource - related research and have won various industry honors [25]

农产品日报（2025 年 5 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四，玉米 7 月合约继续上行，期价经过连续四个交易日的调整行情过后，多头 资金增持，期价反弹。现货市场方面，此前受期价下跌拖累，现货报价下跌，成 交转弱。目前，东北玉米购销并不活跃，深加工玉米收购价格也有所下调，市场 | | | | 气氛降温，价格呈现略偏弱运行的态势。 昨日华北地区玉米价格窄幅调整，主 | | | | 流价格维持稳定。下游深加工企业到货量尚可，基本满足企业日常需求，企业根 | | | 玉米 | 据自身到货情况价格窄幅调整。销区市场玉米价格稳中偏弱运行。产区近期价格 | 震荡 | | | 偏弱，部分贸易商选择获利了结，市场购销稍有加快。新小麦继续上市，到厂价 | | | | 格偏低，对玉米替代性增强，下游饲料厂多执行前期订单，新签玉米量少。整体 | | | | 来看，在玉米期货市场，因担心进口玉米拍卖，政策预期偏空，玉米期价展开调 | | | | 整。技术上，玉米期价高位震荡，现货市场情绪有所分化。周初玉米 7 月合约跌 | | | | 破长期均线对价 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On May 22, polysilicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main contract 2507 closing at 36,080 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 1.14%, and the open interest increasing by 3,806 lots to 77,294 lots. The SMM polysilicon N-type silicon material price was 36,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable N-type silicon material dropped to 36,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium over the main contract narrowed to 420 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon showed a volatile and slightly weaker trend, with the main contract 2507 closing at 7,880 yuan/ton, an intraday decrease of 0.19%, and the open interest increasing by 9,112 lots to 184,000 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 8,041 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 grade dropped to 8,050 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 155 yuan/ton [2]. - The increase in production by large factories in Xinjiang has triggered pessimistic market expectations. With the lack of a reversal driver for demand and the continuous increase in short positions in the futures market, a defensive short - selling strategy can be continued for industrial silicon. Polysilicon has a structural contradiction between near - term delivery shortages and a rapid loss of demand. After the squeeze - out pressure ends, the logic of weakening fundamentals returns. The main contract is benchmarked against the delivery base price, and there is no power for a short - term sharp rise. Short positions can be established on rebounds [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Viewpoints - Polysilicon and industrial silicon showed different trends on May 22. For industrial silicon, due to factory production increases and weak demand, a defensive short - selling strategy is recommended. For polysilicon, after the end of the squeeze - out pressure, short positions can be established on rebounds [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures Settlement Prices**: The futures settlement prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon's main and near - month contracts remained unchanged on May 22 and 23 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon and polysilicon are provided, and the price of the lowest deliverable grade and the spot premium are also given. For example, the SMM polysilicon N - type silicon material price was 36,500 yuan/ton, and the Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 8,041 yuan/ton on May 22 [2][4]. - **Inventory**: For industrial silicon, the total social inventory increased by 1,550 tons to 420,800 tons. For polysilicon, the total social inventory increased by 0.1 million tons to 28.8 million tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's polysilicon inventory increased significantly by 210,000 tons to 270,000 tons [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][9]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][16][18]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and the inventory of DMC and polysilicon [21][22][25]. - **Cost - Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, and the cost - profit of DMC, polysilicon, and the aluminum alloy processing industry [28][30][34]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in the non - ferrous metals and new energy industries and have achieved certain results in research and service [36][37].

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 5 月 2 3 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 671.0 | 671.0 | 0.0 | I05-I09 | -56.0 | -57.5 | 1.5 | | I09 | 727.0 | 728.5 | -1.5 | I09-I01 | 35.5 | 35.5 | 0.0 | | I01 | 691.5 | 693.0 | -1.5 | I01-I05 | 20.5 | 22.0 | -1.5 | 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-2105 2201- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report's industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View - Steel: The rebar market showed narrow - range consolidation. With production increasing, inventory decline narrowing, and apparent demand falling, the short - term outlook is for continued narrow - range movement. The spot market demand has some resilience but is gradually weakening [1]. - Iron Ore: The futures price is expected to show a weakening and volatile trend. Supply has increased significantly, while iron - making output has decreased, and there are mixed factors in the market [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. The downstream procurement is slow, and the market confidence is low [1]. - Coke: The coke market is likely to experience weak and volatile trends. Production is at a high level, and demand may decline marginally as the temperature rises [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The futures price of manganese silicon increased significantly. Although there are news - driven factors, the sustainability is expected to be relatively weak [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon market is expected to move in a narrow range at a low level. Terminal demand is weak, and there is limited upward driving force [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research View - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 3061 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with an increase of 0.52 million lots in positions. The national rebar production increased by 4.95 tons week - on - week to 231.48 tons, social inventory decreased by 18.42 tons to 416.46 tons, and factory inventory increased by 2.77 tons to 187.76 tons. Apparent demand fell by 13.16 tons to 247.13 tons [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2509 was 727 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day. Global iron ore shipments increased significantly, iron - making output decreased by 1.17 tons to 243.6 tons, and port and steel mill inventories decreased [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 827.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.5 yuan/ton or 1.72% from the previous trading day. The downstream procurement was slow, and the market confidence was weak [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1406.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton or 0.78% from the previous trading day. The coke production was at a high level, and demand may decline marginally [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The main contract of manganese silicon futures closed at 5998 yuan/ton, a 3.84% increase. The South African government's policy may lead to a reduction in manganese ore shipments, but the sustainability of the price increase is weak [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract of ferrosilicon futures closed at 5622 yuan/ton, a 0.14% increase. Terminal demand is weak, and the steel mill's procurement price decreased [1]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 20.0, with a 4.0 increase; the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore was 35.5, unchanged [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the rebar 10 - contract was 129.0, unchanged; the basis of the iron ore 09 - contract was 79.0, a decrease of 4.0 [4]. - **Spot Price**: The Shanghai rebar spot price was 3190.0, unchanged; the PB powder spot price at Rizhao Port was 760.0, a decrease of 5.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][12][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [18][19][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: There are charts showing the spreads of 10 - 01 and 01 - 05 contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][30][32][34][35][38]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: There are charts showing the spreads and ratios such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [40][42][44]. - **Rebar Profit**: There are charts showing the rebar main contract's on - paper profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit [45][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current assistant director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the coal futures field [52]. - Liu Xi: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [53].

光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 5 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周四，ICE 美棉下跌 0.61%，报收 65.67 美分/磅，CF509 下跌 0.37%，报收 13430 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 4227 手至 57.86 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14539 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 52 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14621 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日增加 54 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期扰动仍更多在于宏观层面，美元指数跌破 | | | | 100 整数关口稍有反弹，美联储官员称，如果关税下降，预计 2025 年下半年降息。 | | | | 目前看 6 月不降息概率超过 9 成，7 月利率维持不变概率同样较大，持续关注宏观 | | | | 层面动态。国内市场方面，郑棉期价在新的区间震荡，纺织企业开机负荷无明显变 | | | | 化，原材料库存环比下降，产成品库存环比累积，驱动稍显偏弱。展望未来，天气 | | | | 层面扰动仍需持续关注，但短期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil prices will continue to fluctuate due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase discussions, non - compliance of some member countries, and the deadlock in US - Iran nuclear negotiations [1]. - The absolute price volatility of fuel oil (FU and LU) is expected to increase in the short term, and the strategy of narrowing the LU - FU spread can be continued [3]. - The absolute price volatility of asphalt (BU) is expected to increase in the short term. BU may be a relatively weak variety among oil products, and a strategy of shorting the cracking spread can be considered [3][5]. - PTA and ethylene glycol should be treated with a short - term oscillatory mindset [5]. - The price of natural rubber will oscillate in the short term [5][7]. - The price fluctuation of methanol may increase, and attention should be paid to MTO device复产 plans and Iranian device changes [7]. - Polyolefins are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [7][9]. - The price of PVC is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, international oil prices fell for the third consecutive day. OPEC+ is discussing a possible large - scale production increase in July. Saudi Arabia warned non - compliant members. The US - Iran nuclear negotiation is at a deadlock, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood. The oil price will oscillate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contracts of fuel oil (FU2507) and low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2507) fell. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories increased. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil may be tight before June, and high - sulfur fuel oil inventory is being digested. The absolute price volatility of FU and LU is expected to increase, and the LU - FU spread has shown an inflection point [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract (BU2507) rose. This week, the shipment volume of domestic asphalt enterprises increased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises increased. Supply may rise in June, but some refineries may reduce production next week. Demand is supported in the north but weak in the south. The absolute price volatility of BU is expected to increase, and it may be a relatively weak variety [3][5]. - **Polyester**: TA509, EG2509, and PX futures contracts fell. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were light. An EO - EG联产 device stopped working, and two synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol devices in Henan will be shut down for maintenance. PX supply supports PXN, and PTA devices are restarting. Polyester operating load is high, and ethylene glycol port inventory is expected to decrease. Both PTA and ethylene glycol should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contracts (RU2509, NR, BR) showed different trends. The operating load of domestic tire enterprises decreased. The low production at the beginning of rubber tapping and rainfall in overseas production areas support raw material prices. Rubber imports increased, and Qingdao inventory decreased slightly. The price of natural rubber will oscillate [5][7]. - **Methanol**: Supply has decreased due to domestic device maintenance but is still at a high level in the past five years. Iranian device load has dropped, and the expected arrival volume in the far - month is expected to decrease, but the short - term arrival volume is recovering. MTO device operation has not changed much, and port and inland inventories are low. The price fluctuation of methanol may increase [7]. - **Polyolefins**: The prices of polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) showed different trends. There are many upstream maintenance activities, and supply pressure is not large. Demand has increased due to tariff reduction, and inventory has decreased. However, both inventory and supply are at high levels, and polyolefins are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [7][9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China showed different trends. Maintenance devices will resume production, and new maintenance is limited, so production is expected to increase. Domestic real - estate construction is stable, but demand will weaken in the off - season. The price of PVC is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on May 23, 2025, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, price change rate, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC+ is discussing a possible large - scale production increase in the June 1 meeting, and a daily production increase of 411,000 barrels in July is one of the options under discussion [13]. - Turkey's imports of Urals crude oil will increase in May as its top refinery Tupras has resumed purchasing Russian crude oil, which is traded below the Western price cap of $60 per barrel [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [15][16][17] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [30][32][39] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [45][47][50] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report presents the spread and ratio charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, BU/SC ratio, etc. [60][62][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [68][72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy - Chemical Research, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won multiple awards and has over ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research [74]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison. She has won multiple awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [75]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with a master's degree in finance. She has won multiple awards and is good at data analysis [76]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with a master's degree in engineering from China University of Petroleum (East China) and a mid - level economist title [77]. 3.6 Contact Information - Company address: Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone - Company phone: 021 - 80212222 - Fax: 021 - 80212200 - Customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979 - Zip code: 200127 [79]

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 05 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 4 | 月经济数据整体较 3 月有一定程度下滑，但仍在关税战背景下保持韧性。 | | | | 其中社零同比 5.1%，继续受到"以旧换新"政策的明显支撑。4 月社会信贷 | | | | 需求偏弱，4 月累计新增人民币贷款 10.06 万亿元，同比多增 2.86%；4 月 M2 | | | | 同比 8%。此前中美发布联合声明，为后续进一步贸易协商奠定良好开局， | | | | 超过市场预期。近期三部门召开联合新闻发布会，央行宣布降准降息政策， | | | | 降低企业负债端成本。金融监管总局强调将大力推动中长期资金入市，通过 | | | 股指 | 类平准基金的方式支持、稳定和活跃资本市场，具体措施包括鼓励保险资金 | 震荡 | | | 加大入市力度、设立新的金融资产投资公司、支持汇金公司在必要时增持股 | | | | 票指数基金等。证监会表示将优化主动权益类基金的收费模式，扭转基金公 | | | | 司"旱涝保收"的现象。内部政策发力是股指 ...

农产品日报（2025 年 5 月 22 日） 一、研究观点 生猪 周三，生猪期价震荡收十字星，远月合约 2509 期价位于 1.4 万整数关口之下，9 月期价贴水现货，近月合约进入到交割月之后贴水回归，价格反弹。现货市场方 面，生猪价格一直维持在成本线之上，猪价呈现偏乐观的预期。目前，河南市场 出栏均价为 14.60 元/公斤，较昨日降 0.15 元/公斤。当地大场 115-130 公斤良种 猪主流出栏价格 14.60-14.80 元/公斤；中小场 115-130 公斤良种主流出栏价格 14.40 元/公斤左右；145-150 公斤大猪出栏价格 14.40 元/公斤，低价 14.20 元/ 公斤。下游屠宰方面，屠宰企业中小场良种标猪主流收购价格 14.40 元/公斤左右， 均重 115-125 公斤。整体来看，生猪 9 月合约贴水现货，饲料成本预期下降，对 猪价形成价格压力。技术上，短期关注 9 月合约猪价 13500 元整数支撑的价格表 现，长期等待多单入市机会。 震荡 二、市场信息 1. 据国家粮油信息中心，船期监测显示，5 月份开始我国进口大豆将集中到港，加上 4 月份部分大豆受检 验检疫加强等因素影响 ...