Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Urea's investment rating is a firm and volatile trend [1] - Soda ash's investment rating is a weak and volatile trend [1] - Glass's investment rating is a volatile trend [1] Group 2: Core Views - Urea futures prices rose rapidly at noon yesterday and then fluctuated and declined. The supply level has decreased, and the demand side's follow - up sentiment has partially improved, but the regional performance is still differentiated. The inventory has increased, and the fundamentals have not reversed. Future supply reduction, environmental protection restrictions, and the Indian tender results may bring new directions [1] - Soda ash futures prices fluctuated narrowly. The industry's operating rate and production have decreased, and the demand side has not improved significantly. The fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the short - term sentiment is weak. The medium - to - long - term pattern of oversupply remains unchanged [1] - Glass futures prices fluctuated narrowly. There are signs of production line ignition and resumption, but the supply has not increased. The demand side sentiment has slightly improved, and the sales - to - production ratio has increased. The supply - demand contradiction is still not optimistic, and the industry's confidence in the future is insufficient [1] Group 3: Market Information Summary Urea - On August 27, the urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 6473, an increase of 1350 from the previous trading day, with 183 valid forecasts [4] - On August 27, the daily urea production in the industry was 18.89 million tons, a decrease of 0.17 million tons from the previous working day, and an increase of 2.33 million tons from the same period last year. The industry's operating rate was 80.75%, a 5.66 - percentage - point increase from 75.09% in the same period last year [4] - On August 27, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions remained unchanged. For example, Shandong was 1700 yuan/ton, and Henan was 1710 yuan/ton [4] - As of August 27, the urea enterprise inventory was 108.58 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.19 million tons or 6.05% [5] Soda Ash and Glass - On August 27, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 6235, a decrease of 2943 from the previous trading day, with 1911 valid forecasts. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged [7] - On August 27, the spot prices of soda ash in different regions were reported. For example, in North China, the light soda ash was 1250 yuan/ton, and the heavy soda ash was 1350 yuan/ton [7] - On August 27, the soda ash industry's operating rate was 80.21%, down from 81.33% the previous working day [8] - On August 27, the average price of the float glass market was 1151 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the industry's daily output was 15.96 million tons, also unchanged [8] Group 4: Chart Analysis - The report includes multiple charts such as the closing price of the urea and soda ash main contracts, the basis of urea and soda ash, the trading volume and open interest of the urea and soda ash main contracts, the price spread between different contracts of urea and soda ash, the spot price trend charts of urea and soda ash, and the price spread between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash futures [9][13][14][15][17][18] Group 5: Research Team Members - Zhang Xiaojin is the research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won many awards [21] - Zhang Linglu is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass. She has also won many honors [21] - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On August 27, 2025, the 2511 contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 0.23% to 78,860 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 81,600 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate fell by 100 yuan/ton to 79,300 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) declined by 50 yuan/ton to 77,030 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 787 tons to 27,477 tons [3]. - Fundamentally, on the supply side, production slowed down slightly, mainly due to the suspension of mica production. In the future, with the previous price increase and the increase in overseas imports, lithium extraction from spodumene is expected to continue to increase. There is currently high - priced ore, which still supports the price of lithium carbonate. On the demand side, the total demand in August increased by 6% month - on - month. September is the traditional peak season, downstream production schedules may remain booming, and downstream inventory replenishment intentions are strong. The social inventory remains at 141,000 tons and has shown a slight destocking trend in the past two weeks, with an increase in downstream procurement [3]. - On August 27, affected by news in the lithium ore market, the lithium price was strong at first and then weak. The production problems of known resource projects have basically been resolved. After the rapid price increase last week, there is short - term callback pressure, waiting for new factors to drive the price. In the short term, pay attention to the lithium ore transaction price, and in the medium term, focus on the progress of other projects that need to complete report compilation and submission by September 30 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 78,860 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 79,040 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) remained unchanged at 920 US dollars/ton. The prices of some lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone varieties increased slightly [5]. - Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate and various types of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly, while the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained unchanged [5]. - Other products: The price of hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged. Some prices of ternary precursors and materials increased slightly, while the prices of most cathode materials and batteries remained stable [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][13]. - Spreads: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant spreads from 2024 to 2025 [17][19]. - Precursor and cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2025 [24][26]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobaltate cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][33]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other sectors from January to August 2025 [37][39]. - Production cost: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [41]. 3.3 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who are responsible for different aspects of non - ferrous and new energy research and have rich experience and achievements [45][46]. 3.4 Contact Information - The company is located at Building 6, Lujiazui Century Financial Plaza, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. Contact information includes phone, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code [49].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [1] - Sugar: Neutral with a slightly bearish bias [1] Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: On Wednesday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.09% to 66.65 cents per pound, and CF601 decreased 0.32% to 14,075 yuan per ton. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and the U.S. weather and drought area changes should be monitored. In the domestic market, sentiment fluctuated, and the Zhengzhou cotton futures price moved lower. After the issuance of 200,000 tons of processing trade import quotas, inventory concerns eased. New cotton supply-demand contradictions are not significant, but there will be pressure from high yields and support from "scrambling to buy" expectations. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and macro and weather changes should be watched [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's Conab lowered the 2025/26 sugar production forecast by 3.1% to 44.5 million tons. Domestic sugar spot prices were lowered, and the futures price continued to decline with reduced positions. The double - festival stocking provides limited support, and future import pressure will trouble the market. A slightly bearish and fluctuating view is maintained, and the support at the previous low will be tested. Attention should be paid to the August import data [1]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 45, unchanged; the main contract basis was 1,267, up 33. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,249 yuan per ton, up 14 yuan, and the national price was 15,342 yuan per ton, up 8 yuan [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 32, down 3; the main contract basis was 365, up 2. The Nanning spot price was 5,920 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan, and the Liuzhou price was 5,985 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 2. Market Information - **Cotton**: On August 27, the cotton futures warehouse receipt quantity was 6,859, down 118, with 2 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were reported, and the yarn and short - fiber cloth load and inventory data were provided [3]. - **Sugar**: On August 27, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou decreased. The sugar futures warehouse receipt quantity was 14,906, down 409, with 1 valid forecast [3][4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Cotton**: Charts show the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the China Cotton Price Index, with data from 2021 - 2025 [6][9][11]. - **Sugar**: Charts show the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, with data from 2021 - 2025 [14][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper fluctuated weakly, and domestic copper opened lower and fluctuated narrowly with the domestic spot import window continuously open. Concerns about the Fed's independence may increase expectations of monetary policy easing. Seasonal off - peak is ending, downstream orders may improve, and scrap copper substitution is favorable. There is a possibility of inventory replenishment in China, which may drive LME copper into a destocking phase and support price stabilization, but the potential upside in September is limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. Alumina's resumption of production increases, with accumulating warehouse receipts and over - supply expectations. Cost support is strengthening, so it is in a weak but limited - decline pattern. The inflow of aluminum ingots in main sales areas in China is decreasing, and downstream stocking is increasing. Whether it is a cyclical inflection point needs verification [2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. Overall, the fundamentals have little change, the contradictions in the industrial chain are not prominent, and prices are likely to fluctuate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 75 yuan/ton, and the inventory of LME and COMEX copper changed. The total social inventory increased by 0.8 tons. The LME0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.3 dollars/ton, and the active contract import profit decreased by 110 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged, and the inventory of LME decreased by 4075 tons, while the warehouse receipt of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 74 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum increased by 60 yuan/ton. The inventory of LME and the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and the social inventory of alumina decreased by 2.2 tons. The active contract import loss decreased [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 1650 yuan/ton. The LME inventory increased by 72 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt decreased by 61 tons. The social inventory increased by 1319 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算 price increased by 0.2%. The LME inventory decreased by 5500 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.74 tons. The active contract import loss changed [5]. - **Tin**: The主力结算 price increased by 0.8%. The LME inventory increased by 145 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 301 tons [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2025 [7][8][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][17][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin on the LME from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin on the SHFE from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][45]. 3.3 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A master of science, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience, and his team has won many awards [48]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, mainly researching aluminum and silicon, providing in - depth reports and risk management services [48]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, focusing on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, and providing timely market information [49].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report presents the daily data tracking of stock index futures on August 27, 2025, including the index trends, the impact of sector fluctuations on indices, the basis and annualized opening costs of stock index futures, and the points differences and annualized costs during contract roll - over periods [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Index Trends - On August 27, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.76% to close at 3800.35 points, with a trading volume of 1326.849 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.43% to close at 12295.07 points, with a trading volume of 1838.716 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index fell 1.87% with a trading volume of 672.784 billion yuan; the CSI 500 Index fell 1.46% with a trading volume of 583.864 billion yuan; the SSE 50 Index fell 1.73% with a trading volume of 197.654 billion yuan; the SSE 300 Index fell 1.49% with a trading volume of 785.098 billion yuan [1]. Impact of Sector Fluctuations on Indices - The CSI 1000 Index dropped 139.97 points from the previous closing price, with sectors such as pharmaceuticals and biotechnology significantly dragging down the index [2]. - The CSI 500 Index dropped 101.51 points, affected by sectors like non - banking finance and pharmaceuticals and biotechnology [2]. - The SSE 300 Index dropped 66.46 points, pulled down by sectors including food and beverage, banking, and non - banking finance [2]. - The SSE 50 Index dropped 51.4 points, influenced by sectors such as food and beverage, banking, and non - banking finance [2]. Basis and Annualized Opening Costs of Stock Index Futures - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 52.19, IM01 of - 105.28, IM02 of - 216.38, and IM03 of - 377.67 [11]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 31.68, IC01 of - 69.6, IC02 of - 158.42, and IC03 of - 286.97 [11]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 1.52, IF01 of - 7.84, IF02 of - 21.04, and IF03 of - 42.88 [11]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of 1.72, IH01 of 2.28, IH02 of 5.0, and IH03 of 8.1 [11]. Points Differences and Annualized Costs during Contract Roll - over Periods - Data on the annualized costs and 15 - minute average points differences during the roll - over periods of IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts are provided, including specific values at different time points [21][23][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities in the report are rated as "Oscillating" [1][2][4][5][7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil market is currently affected by the uncertainty of supply - side expectations, and oil prices are expected to oscillate. The fuel oil market is also in an oscillating state due to factors such as supply and demand and sanctions. The asphalt market has increased production expectations in September, and the price will oscillate while paying attention to the actual demand. The polyester market has improved demand expectations, and the supply has shrunk due to some device overhauls, with prices following cost fluctuations. The rubber market has support from demand, and the price will oscillate in the short - term. The methanol market will maintain an oscillating trend considering supply and demand changes. The polyolefin market is gradually transitioning to a state of both strong supply and demand, with narrow - range oscillations. The PVC market is expected to oscillate weakly due to factors such as supply, demand, and inventory [1][2][4][5][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, WTI October contract rose $0.9 to $64.15/barrel (1.42% increase), Brent October contract rose $0.83 to $68.05/barrel (1.23% increase), and SC2510 closed at 481.5 yuan/barrel, down 4.9 yuan/barrel (1.01% decrease). Last week, US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased due to increased demand. Russia extended the gasoline export ban until September 30. Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian oil export pipelines and US tariffs on Indian imports affected Russian crude exports, with weekly shipments decreasing to 272 barrels/day in the week ending August 24. The market is affected by supply - side uncertainty, and oil prices are expected to oscillate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, FU2510 fell 2.39% to 2821 yuan/ton, and LU2511 fell 1.47% to 3485 yuan/ton. Affected by US sanctions on Iran and previous low valuations, FU had a strong rise this week but回调ed with the oil price yesterday. The Chinese refinery's average utilization rate of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 63.61% as of August 27, up 1.04 percentage points from last week. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakened further, and the high - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure is expected to continue. FU is affected by sentiment and is expected to oscillate [2] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, BU2510 fell 0.57% to 3505 yuan/ton. The domestic refinery's asphalt production plan in September is about 2.64 million tons, a 10% increase from August and a 33% increase from the same period last year. This week, the domestic refinery's asphalt inventory level was 27.15%, down 0.66% week - on - week, and the social inventory rate was 33.94%, up 0.04% week - on - week. The asphalt plant's device utilization rate was 36.67%, down 0.25% week - on - week. In September, the demand is expected to increase, and the price will oscillate while paying attention to the actual demand [2][4] - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4824 yuan/ton, down 0.94%; EG2601 closed at 4481 yuan/ton, down 0.2%. The polyester yarn sales in the Yangtze River Delta region are still weak, with an average sales estimate of about 30%. A 300,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol device in Shanxi is restarting, and a cracking device in Singapore has an unexpected delay in restart. The demand improvement brings positive support, and the supply has shrunk due to device overhauls. The prices of PX and TA follow cost fluctuations, and the ethylene glycol price is favorable due to reduced imports and lower inventory [4][5] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, RU2601 fell 125 yuan/ton to 15760 yuan/ton, NR fell 175 yuan/ton to 12615 yuan/ton, and BR fell 135 yuan/ton to 11710 yuan/ton. From January to July, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 0.8% year - on - year, but exports to China increased by 5% year - on - year. The supply - side prices of cup rubber and latex are relatively firm, and the demand - side tire exports have increased, supporting the short - term price to oscillate [5] - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang is 2250 yuan/ton. Recently, there have been many domestic device overhauls, and the supply is at a phased low. Overseas, Iranian device loads are high, and short - term arrivals will remain high. However, with the increase in the price difference between Europe, India, and China, the arrival volume will decrease in the long - term. The MTO device load in East China is not high, and the port inventory will increase in the short - term. The price is expected to oscillate [5][7] - **Polyolefins**: The mainstream price of East China wire - drawing PP is 6910 - 7080 yuan/ton. The production profit of different raw material - based PP varies. The subsequent production volume will remain high, and the downstream enterprise's operating rate is currently low but is expected to increase with the approaching of the peak demand season. The market is gradually transitioning to a state of both strong supply and demand, and the price will oscillate narrowly [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The market price in East China, North China, and South China has adjusted weakly. The domestic real - estate construction has stabilized and recovered, and the demand for pipes and profiles is expected to increase. However, exports will be affected by India's anti - dumping policy. The supply remains high, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [7][8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - This part provides the basis and reference for analyzing the market trends of various energy - chemical products by presenting the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes of multiple energy - chemical varieties on August 27 and 26, as well as the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [9] 3.3 Market News - The US imported about 74,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude oil in the week ending August 22, which is the first time since the US government issued a new license to Chevron to operate in Venezuela. Russia extended the gasoline export ban until September 30, with different lifting times for fuel manufacturers and non - manufacturers [14] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: It shows the historical closing prices of the main contracts of multiple energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, helping to analyze the long - term price trends of these products [16][18][20][22][24][25][26][28] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It presents the historical basis data of multiple energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, which is useful for understanding the relationship between spot and futures prices [30][32][36][38][40][42] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the historical spreads of different contracts of multiple energy - chemical products, which can be used to analyze the price differences between different contract periods [44][46][49][52][54][57][60] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the historical spreads and ratios between different energy - chemical products, helping to analyze the price relationships between different varieties [62][63][64][66] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It shows the historical production profit data of multiple energy - chemical products, which is helpful for understanding the profitability of different products [67][69][71] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes members such as Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and professional backgrounds in the energy - chemical field, and they have won many industry awards [73][74][75][76]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock index futures: Bullish [1] - Treasury bond futures: Sideways [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market was affected by the Fed's dovish stance, with expectations of multiple interest rate cuts this year. Policies such as Shanghai's housing policy adjustments and the implementation of the childcare subsidy system have also had an impact. The liquidity market is expected to continue, but with a narrowing focus of funds, and there may be short - term fluctuations while having the potential for long - term upward movement [1]. - The bond market rebounded this week due to expectations of Fed rate cuts in September and increased expectations of domestic monetary policy efforts. However, the strong performance of the stock market will be a short - term negative factor for the bond market, and short - term Treasury bond futures are expected to trade in a high - level range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock index futures**: On August 27, 2025, IH decreased by 1.70% to 2,920.2, IF decreased by 1.46% to 4,384.0, IC decreased by 1.14% to 6,837.8, and IM decreased by 1.73% to 7,287.2 [3]. - **Stock indexes**: The Shanghai Composite 50 decreased by 1.73% to 2,918.4, the CSI 300 decreased by 1.49% to 4,386.1, the CSI 500 decreased by 1.46% to 6,862.6, and the CSI 1000 decreased by 1.87% to 7,336.5 [3]. - **Treasury bond futures**: On August 27, 2025, TS increased by 0.01% to 102.41, TF increased by 0.03% to 105.59, T increased by 0.02% to 108.02, and TL increased by 0.11% to 117.40 [3]. 3.2 Market News - From January to July 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 4,020.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. In July, the profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased by 1.5% year - on - year [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Stock index futures**: Charts show the trends of IH, IF, IC, IM, and their corresponding basis trends [6][7][8][9][10]. - **Treasury bond futures**: Charts display the trends of Treasury bond futures contracts, spot bond yields, basis, inter - delivery spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates [13][15][16][17]. - **Exchange rates**: Charts present the trends of the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, euro - RMB central parity rate, forward US dollar - RMB and euro - RMB exchange rates, US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [20][21][22][24][26].

软商品日报 软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 8 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二，ICE 美棉下跌 0.97%，报收 66.67 美分/磅，CF601 环比下跌 0.11%，报收 14100 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 3455 手至 50.81 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 15235 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 135 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 15334 元/吨，较 | | | | 前一日上涨 99 元/吨。国际市场方面，宏观层面仍需持续关注，目前市场已经基本 | | | | 定价 9 月降息 25bp，关注后续是否会有超预期扰动，昨日美元指数与美棉价格共 | | | | 振下行。基本面驱动有限，USDA8 月报环比调减 2025/26 年度美棉产量预期值 30.2 | | | 棉花 | 万吨，关注后续美国干旱扰动。国内市场方面。2025 年棉花滑准税配额发布，20 | | | | 万吨加工贸易进口配额，部分缓解库存短缺担忧。市场关注重心将逐渐转向新棉， | | | | 展 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating weakly [1] - Iron ore: Oscillating [1] - Coking coal: Oscillating [1] - Coke: Oscillating [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The black commodity market is generally volatile. Different varieties are affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, production restrictions, and market sentiment, showing different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price declined, with the 2510 contract closing at 3113 yuan/ton, down 0.8%. Spot prices also dropped slightly, and the inventory has been accumulating counter - seasonally since August. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract i2601 price fell to 776.5 yuan/ton, down 1.33%. Global iron ore shipments decreased slightly, while iron - water production increased. With multiple factors at play, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Coking coal**: The 2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1160.5 yuan/ton, down 4.52%. The supply is affected by frequent disturbances, and the demand is slightly weakened due to the approaching parade. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Coke**: The 2601 contract of coke closed at 1681 yuan/ton, down 3.17%. Coke enterprises initiated the eighth round of price increases, and the production is affected by environmental protection during the parade. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: The price of the main contract oscillated weakly, closing at 5862 yuan/ton, down 0.37%. The production is increasing, while the demand is stimulated limitedly. It is expected to follow the overall black market fluctuations in the short term [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The price of the main contract declined slightly to 5656 yuan/ton, down 0.56%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is affected by downstream production. It is expected to follow the overall black market fluctuations in the short term [1]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract spreads**: Different varieties have different contract spreads and their changes, such as the 10 - 1 month spread of rebar being - 72.0 with a 14.0 change [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also shows different values and changes, like the 10 - contract basis of rebar being 187.0 with a 15.0 change [4]. - **Spot prices**: Spot prices of different varieties in different regions have different trends, for example, the Shanghai rebar price dropped by 10 yuan/ton [4]. - **Profits and spreads**: There are also data on profits and spreads between different varieties, such as the rebar disk profit being - 51.7 with a 19.8 change [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main contract prices**: There are historical price trend charts of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 - 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [7][9][13] - **Main contract basis**: The charts show the historical basis trends of various black commodities, helping to understand the price differences between futures and spot [19][20] - **Inter - period contract spreads**: The charts display the historical spreads between different contracts of various black commodities, which is useful for analyzing price relationships between different periods [28][30] - **Inter - variety contract spreads**: The charts show the historical spreads between different varieties of black commodities, such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [43] - **Rebar profits**: There are charts showing the historical profits of rebar, including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [48][52] 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and expertise in the black commodity research field [54][55]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The report presents a "volatile" view on various agricultural products including corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs, analyzing their market conditions, supply - demand factors, and price trends, and also gives corresponding trading strategies [1][2] 3) Summary by Directory Research Viewpoints - **Corn**: The corn futures market is in a volatile state. The spot price is weak, with the price in Northeast China moving towards the new - grain price and showing a continuous downward trend. The arrival volume of corn at Shandong deep - processing enterprises has increased, and the price has been slightly adjusted downwards. The downstream procurement willingness is weak, and the short - term demand is difficult to recover significantly. Attention should be paid to the price performance of the November contract at the 2150 integer mark [1] - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rose due to technical trading, and the US soybean harvest is expected to be good. The domestic soybean meal production has increased and prices have declined. Market expectations of a US soybean purchase agreement and state - reserve soybean auctions are affecting the market. It is recommended to focus on short - term trading and participate in monthly positive spreads [1] - **Oils**: BMD palm oil declined due to profit - taking. The export of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 25 increased, while the production decreased. The domestic three major vegetable oils are mainly volatile, with inventory pressure increasing and demand remaining weak. If the spot demand starts, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and the basis is estimated to strengthen. It is recommended to participate in short - term long positions and sell put options [1] - **Eggs**: Egg futures are in a low - level volatile adjustment. The spot price has a slight increase, with stable terminal digestion and most traders purchasing as they sell. The supply pressure still affects the spot price, but there is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in egg prices. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to changes in terminal demand and market sentiment [1][2] - **Pigs**: Pig futures are weakly volatile. The spot price has declined, with large - scale farms increasing their slaughter volume and supply exceeding market digestion. According to seasonal patterns, there is support for pig prices as demand recovers, but the abundant supply still exerts pressure. It is necessary to pay attention to the reaction of the futures market to spot prices and changes in policies and market sentiment [2] Market Information - As of August 24, EU's 2025/26 imports of soybeans, rapeseed, palm oil, and corn all decreased compared to the same period last year [3] - As of August 26, the national soybean oil port inventory increased by 410,000 tons compared to the previous week [3] - Malaysia's Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities is seeking to exempt crude palm kernel oil and refined palm kernel oil from the sales and service tax [3] - From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 3.26% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.4%, and the production decreased by 1.21% [3] Variety Spreads - The report provides charts of contract spreads and contract basis for various agricultural products such as corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs, but no specific analysis of these spreads is given [4][5][6][10][12][13][14][16][18][23]