Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper and domestic copper trended upward. The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was revised to 3.3%, better than expected. A Fed official supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September. China's urban renewal is expected to speed up. LME and Comex copper inventories increased, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. As the seasonal off - season ends, downstream orders may pick up, and there are expectations of domestic enterprises restocking and inventory depletion, which could support copper prices, but the potential upside in September is limited [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy trended weakly. Alumina production resumption increased, but cost support strengthened, limiting deep declines. The inflow of aluminum ingots decreased and downstream stocking increased, and the inflection point of aluminum prices depends on the last week before September [1][2]. - Nickel: LME and SHFE nickel prices rose. LME inventory increased, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. The fundamentals improved marginally, and the price may trend upward with low valuation [2]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Research Views - **Copper**: Macroeconomic data in the US was positive, and China's urban renewal policy may boost demand. Inventory changes varied in different markets. Seasonal factors and import window conditions may affect future inventory and price trends [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina prices declined, and aluminum products showed weak trends. Production resumption and cost factors influenced the market. The change in aluminum ingot inventory needs further observation [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Price increases were accompanied by inventory changes. The improvement in fundamentals was not significant, but the price may be strong in the short - term [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Market prices, including those of flat - water copper, scrap copper, and downstream products, changed. Inventory levels in LME, COMEX, and social inventories also changed, along with other indicators such as premiums and import profits [4]. - **Lead**: Prices of lead products decreased slightly, and inventory levels in LME and the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased [4]. - **Aluminum**: Market prices of aluminum and its raw materials changed. Inventory levels in LME, the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and social inventories also had corresponding changes [5]. - **Nickel**: Prices of nickel products decreased, and inventory levels in LME, the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and social inventories changed [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased, and inventory levels in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME changed. Social inventory increased [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased slightly, and inventory levels in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME decreased [6]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Spot Premiums**: Charts showed the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][15] - **3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spreads**: Charts presented the historical trends of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][20][22] - **3.3 LME Inventory**: Charts displayed the historical trends of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27] - **3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts showed the historical trends of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34] - **3.5 Social Inventory**: Charts presented the historical trends of social inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40] - **3.6 Smelting Profits**: Charts showed the historical trends of copper concentrate index, copper smelting fees, aluminum smelting profits, nickel - iron smelting costs, zinc smelting profits, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margins from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47] 4. Non - research Content (Team Introduction) - The non - research part introduced the members of the non - ferrous metals team, including Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, along with their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional achievements [50][51]

Report Summary 1. Index Performance - On August 28, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.14% to close at 3,843.6 points with a trading volume of 1.265186 trillion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.25% to close at 12,571.37 points with a trading volume of 1.705617 trillion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose 1.51% with a trading volume of 631.712 billion yuan, opening at 7,331.19, closing at 7,447.11, reaching a high of 7,447.11 and a low of 7,216.77 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index rose 2.17% with a trading volume of 563.652 billion yuan, opening at 6,858.5, closing at 7,011.16, reaching a high of 7,011.16 and a low of 6,798.93 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 1.45% with a trading volume of 195.215 billion yuan, opening at 2,918.53, closing at 2,960.73, reaching a high of 2,963.07 and a low of 2,906.65 [1]. 2. Sector Impact on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 110.61 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics and communication significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 148.6 points from the previous close, with sectors such as electronics and computer significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 42.35 points from the previous close, with the electronics sector significantly pulling the index up [2]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - IM00 had an average daily basis of -51.98, IM01 -105.75, IM02 -225.02, and IM03 -389.19 [12]. - IC00 had an average daily basis of -33.72, IC01 -75.41, IC02 -168.85, and IC03 -300.35 [12]. - IF00 had an average daily basis of -0.46, IF01 -7.38, IF02 -19.21, and IF03 -41.1 [12]. - IH00 had an average daily basis of 0.34, IH01 0.4, IH02 2.57, and IH03 4.97 [12]. 4. Stock Index Futures Rollover Point Differences and Annualized Costs - The report provides data on the rollover point differences and their annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH futures contracts at different time intervals [21][23][25][26].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - On August 28, industrial silicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main contract 2511 closing at 8,570 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 0.35%, and the position decreasing by 1,804 lots to 274,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon by Baichuan was 9,419 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 silicon dropped back to 8,700 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 255 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon showed a volatile and slightly weaker trend, with the main contract 2511 closing at 49,665 yuan/ton, an intraday decrease of 0.1%, and the position decreasing by 10,625 lots to 144,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon increased to 49,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material dropped to 49,000 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 745 yuan/ton [2]. - The cost of industrial silicon increased with the rise in silicon coal prices. Silicon factories had a high volume of shipments to traders, while the downstream purchase volume was relatively low. The upward and downward space was narrowing, and the adjustment rhythm continued. After the anti - involution achieved basic control over the polysilicon price, the social inventory and warehouse receipts continued to increase under the production release in the southwest region. The industry clearance had not been actually promoted, and the pattern of separation between volume and price of polysilicon continued to expand. The polysilicon spot price started to decline following the cooling of the downstream market sentiment [2]. - Short - term anti - involution - related dynamics still had a driving force on the short - term market, which might guide the correction of expectations and the decline range. It is recommended to be cautious about shorting at high levels. The relevant implementation rules for the energy - saving special supervision to be launched by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology before the end of September may be updated, and continuous attention should be paid to the implementation of production restrictions promoted by policies [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon Futures and Spot Prices**: The settlement price of the main industrial silicon futures contract decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 8,500 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 8,445 yuan/ton. Among the spot prices, the price of some silicon grades decreased, such as the price of 421 silicon in some regions decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of some 553 silicon also decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8,700 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 10 yuan to 255 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon Futures and Spot Prices**: The settlement price of the main polysilicon futures contract increased by 975 yuan/ton to 49,665 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract increased by 650 yuan/ton to 49,745 yuan/ton. The spot prices of N - type and P - type polysilicon remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price remained at 49,000 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened by 650 yuan to 745 yuan/ton [4]. - **Organic Silicon Spot Prices**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained at 11,000 yuan/ton, the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,500 yuan/ton to 14,300 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 50,709, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 2,250 tons to 255,245 tons, the inventory in some ports changed (e.g., Tianjin Port decreased by 1,000 tons, and Kunming Port decreased by 1,000 tons), the industrial silicon factory inventory increased by 4,400 tons to 267,300 tons, and the total industrial silicon social inventory increased by 2,400 tons to 439,800 tons. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 6,880, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 28,000 tons to 196,200 tons, the polysilicon factory inventory decreased by 23,000 tons to 245,000 tons, and the total polysilicon social inventory decreased by 23,000 tons to 245,000 tons [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts present the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][17][19]. - **Inventory**: Charts display the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes, as well as the DMC weekly inventory and polysilicon weekly inventory [22][25][30]. - **Cost - Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels in main production areas, industrial silicon weekly cost - profit, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [31][33][35]. 4. Research Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on the research of aluminum and silicon, and Zhu Xi focuses on the research of lithium and nickel [38][39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of various agricultural products show different trends. Corn is expected to be volatile, with the 11 - month contract under supply pressure but potentially rebounding around the 2200 - 2220 line. Soybean meal is also volatile, affected by factors such as weak US soybean prices, Sino - US talks, and state reserve auctions. Oils are volatile, with prices approaching important support levels. Eggs are in a weakly volatile state, with futures continuing to decline and the spot price affected by supply - side pressure. Pigs are volatile, with the futures market continuing to correct and the spot price showing regional differences [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: This week, the corn 2511 contract increased in position and rose slightly. The spot price was weak, with Northeast corn prices moving towards new - grain prices and continuing to decline. Shandong deep - processing enterprises' corn arrivals increased, and prices were slightly adjusted downwards. The market supply was diverse, but downstream demand was weak. Technically, the 11 - month contract was under supply pressure, but it was approaching the traders' expected storage cost range, with a short - term rebound pressure around 2200 - 2220 [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans rose, with US weekly export sales higher than expected. In Brazil, the 25/26 soybean planting in Santa Catarina will start on September 16, with uneven precipitation and higher - than - normal temperatures. In Paraná, the soybean planting area increased by 1%, and the output is expected to increase by 4%. Domestically, the two - meal market was weak, affected by multiple factors. The strategy is short - term trading, waiting for the results of Sino - US talks [1]. - **Oils**: On Thursday, BMD palm oil fell, but strong export demand and lower - than - expected production limited the decline. Canadian rapeseed production was estimated to increase. Domestically, oil futures prices were weak, and if they break through the important support level, the downward space will open. The strategy is short - term trading [1]. - **Eggs**: On Thursday, egg futures continued to decline. The spot price was also weak, with most prices in the sales areas stable and a few slightly fluctuating. According to the seasonal pattern, egg prices should rebound in late August, but due to supply - side pressure, they continued to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to changes in terminal demand and market sentiment [1][2]. - **Pigs**: On Thursday, hog futures continued to correct. The spot price showed regional differences, with a slight increase in the north and a decline in the south. The fundamentals and market sentiment changed little, and the price is expected to be volatile. The main contract has corrected to the lower edge of the shock range, and attention should be paid to whether future demand and market sentiment can boost the market [2]. Market Information - In July 2025, the national industrial feed output was 28.31 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. The ex - factory prices of different types of feed showed different trends, and the proportion of corn and soybean meal in feed production was given [3]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced the addition of new group delivery sub - warehouses and non - group delivery warehouses for live pigs [3]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's delegation visited Canada and the US. China is willing to work with the US to maintain the healthy and stable development of Sino - US economic and trade relations [3]. - As of the week of August 20, Argentine farmers sold a certain amount of soybeans in different years, with the total cumulative sales reaching 71.4794 million tons [4]. - The result of the China Grain Reserves Corporation's rapeseed oil bidding procurement on August 28 was a 100% transaction rate [4]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report presents the 1 - 5 spreads of various agricultural products such as corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs through multiple charts [6][7][11][15]. - **Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis of various agricultural products such as corn, soybean, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs through multiple charts [14][17][19][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the studied energy and chemical products are rated as "Oscillation" [1][2][3][4][5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of oil prices is oscillating and rebounding, but the rhythm is still changeable. Saudi Arabia may lower the official selling price of crude oil to Asian buyers in October. Russia's offline refining capacity reached a record high in August, and it extended the ban on refined oil exports [1]. - The fuel oil market is affected by factors such as sanctions, inventory changes, and supply and demand. The high - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure will continue, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has weakened. The FU sentiment is highly volatile and is expected to oscillate [2]. - The asphalt market is affected by factors such as rainfall, capital, and project construction. In September, the demand is expected to increase, and the supply is expected to be relatively sufficient. Attention should be paid to the actual realization of demand [2][3]. - The polyester market has improved demand expectations, but the cost - end crude oil price has declined. The PX and TA have large - scale accidental maintenance, and the ethylene glycol price is expected to oscillate strongly [3]. - The rubber market is supported by tire exports, and the short - term rubber price is expected to oscillate. The price of butadiene rubber follows the cost fluctuations [3][4]. - The methanol market has a short - term increase in port inventory, and the domestic supply will gradually recover. The price is expected to oscillate [4]. - The polyolefin market is gradually moving towards a situation of both strong supply and demand, and the overall will show a narrow - range oscillation pattern [5]. - The polyvinyl chloride market has a stable increase in domestic demand, but the export will weaken. The production profit will be gradually compressed, and the price is expected to oscillate [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, the oil price center moved up. WTI October contract closed up $0.45 to $64.60 per barrel, a 0.7% increase. Brent October contract closed up $0.57 to $68.62 per barrel, an 0.84% increase. SC2510 closed at 486.6 yuan per barrel, up 5.5 yuan per barrel, a 1.14% increase. It is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2510 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.21%, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2511 closed up 0.14%. It is expected to oscillate [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2510 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.57%. It is expected to oscillate [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed down 0.66%, EG2601 closed down 0.36%, and PX futures main contract closed down 0.78%. It is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2601 rose 185 yuan per ton, NR main contract rose 165 yuan per ton, and butadiene rubber BR main contract rose 270 yuan per ton. It is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price is expected to oscillate [4]. - **Polyolefin**: The polyolefin market is expected to oscillate [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The polyvinyl chloride market is expected to oscillate [5] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on August 29, 2025, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and the change of basis rate in the past month [7]. 3.3 Market News - From August 22 - 28, the gasoline inventory in the Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp (ARA) center decreased from 104.5 tons to 99.1 tons, the fuel oil inventory increased from 104.6 tons to 104.9 tons, the diesel inventory increased from 203.2 tons to 208.5 tons, the aviation fuel inventory decreased from 94.6 tons to 91.9 tons, and the naphtha inventory increased from 55.2 tons to 58.4 tons [9]. - Saudi Arabia may lower the official selling price of crude oil to Asian buyers in October, with the flagship Arab Light crude oil's official selling price possibly being lowered by 40 - 70 cents per barrel [9] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025 [11][13][15][17][19][21][22] - **Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025 [24][25][27][31][33][35][37] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy and chemical products [38][39][41][44][47][49][52][55] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy and chemical products [56][57][60][61][62] - **Production Profit**: The report shows the cash - flow and profit charts of the production of some energy and chemical products [63][65][67] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The team members include the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, crude oil and related analysts Du Bingqin, natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and achievements [69][70][71][72] 3.6 Contact Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [74]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for stock index futures is "Bullish" [1] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "Sideways" [1] Group 2: Core Views - The A-share market benefited from the dovish stance of the Fed meeting and the expectation of multiple interest rate cuts within the year. Policy adjustments in Shanghai's housing market and the implementation of the parenting subsidy system also contributed to the market's rise. The liquidity-driven market is expected to continue, with funds concentrating on index components and technology stocks, and short-term volatility may increase [1] - The bond market rebounded due to the dovish remarks of the Fed Chair and the expectation of domestic monetary policy easing. However, the strong performance of the stock market will be a short-term negative factor for the bond market, and treasury bond futures are expected to trade in a high-range sideways pattern [2] Group 3: Daily Price Changes - For stock index futures on August 29, 2025, IH rose 1.36% (from 2,920.2 to 2,959.8), IF rose 1.74% (from 4,384.0 to 4,460.4), IC rose 1.89% (from 6,837.8 to 6,967.0), and IM rose 1.04% (from 7,287.2 to 7,363.2) [3] - For stock indices on August 29, 2025, the Shanghai Composite 50 rose 1.45% (from 2,918.4 to 2,960.7), the CSI 300 rose 1.77% (from 4,386.1 to 4,463.8), the CSI 500 rose 2.17% (from 6,862.6 to 7,011.2), and the CSI 1000 rose 1.51% (from 7,336.5 to 7,447.1) [3] - For treasury bond futures on August 29, 2025, TS fell 0.04% (from 102.41 to 102.37), TF fell 0.12% (from 105.59 to 105.46), T fell 0.21% (from 108.02 to 107.80), and TL fell 0.80% (from 117.40 to 116.46) [3] Group 4: Market News - Starting from August 29, 2025, the State Council Tariff Commission decided to continue imposing anti-dumping duties on imported phenol from the United States, the European Union, South Korea, Japan, and Thailand for a period of 5 years [4] Group 5: Chart Analysis 5.1 Stock Index Futures - The report includes charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC futures contracts, as well as their respective basis trends [6][7][10] 5.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts showing the trends of treasury bond futures contracts, treasury bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates [14][16][18] 5.3 Exchange Rates - The report includes charts showing the exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen against the Chinese yuan, as well as the dollar index and euro - dollar exchange rate [21][25][28] Group 6: Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of the macro - financial research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute [29] - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures and is responsible for macro - fundamental quantification, key industry research, index earnings analysis, and market funding tracking [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating weakly [1] - Iron Ore: Narrow - range oscillation [1] - Coking Coal: Oscillation [1] - Coke: Oscillation [1] - Manganese Silicon: Oscillation [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [2][4] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: On August 27, 2025, the rebar futures market had a narrow - range adjustment. The rebar 2510 contract closed at 3111 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 73,400 lots in positions. Spot prices slightly declined, and trading volume remained low. This week, the national building materials production increased by 53,900 tons to 4.0883 million tons, social inventory increased by 160,300 tons to 6.1761 million tons, factory inventory increased by 83,100 tons to 3.1516 million tons, and the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 27,700 tons to 3.8449 million tons. Since August, the supply - demand situation in the rebar spot market has continuously deteriorated, with increased supply, low demand, and reverse - seasonal inventory accumulation, suppressing the futures market. It is expected that the short - term rebar futures market will oscillate weakly [1]. - **Iron Ore**: On August 27, 2025, the main iron ore futures contract i2601 decreased to 775.5 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.1% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 220,000 lots and an increase of 2,000 lots in positions. In terms of supply, Australia's iron ore shipments increased significantly, Brazil's shipments declined from the high level, and the shipments from other countries decreased, resulting in a slight decline in global iron ore shipments. In terms of demand, the hot metal production increased by 90 tons to 2407,500 tons. The inventory of 47 ports increased, while the steel mills' inventory decreased. With multiple factors at play, it is expected that iron ore prices will show a narrow - range oscillation in the short term [1]. - **Coking Coal**: On August 27, 2025, the coking coal futures market declined. The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1154 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan/ton or 0.56%, with an increase of 7067 lots in positions. In the spot market, the price of gas - bearing raw coal in Xinzhou, Shanxi, decreased by 31 yuan to 506 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market was weak, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at the Ganqimaodu port dropping by 7 yuan to 978 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 3 clean coal remaining unchanged at 1100 yuan/ton. Recently, there have been frequent coal mine accidents, and many coal mines in major production areas such as Shanxi have stopped production. The downstream's phased replenishment has ended, and the procurement of raw materials is cautious. The eighth round of coke price increase has not received a response from steel mills. It is expected that the short - term coking coal futures market will oscillate [1]. - **Coke**: On August 27, 2025, the coke futures market declined. The coke 2601 contract closed at 1669.5 yuan/ton, down 11.5 yuan/ton or 0.68%, with an increase of 442 lots in positions. In the spot market, the price of port coke remained stable. After seven rounds of price increases, the profits of coke enterprises have improved significantly. However, due to environmental protection and other factors, some coke enterprises have had phased production restrictions, and the overall operating rate has slightly declined. The coke enterprises' inventory pressure is small. In terms of demand, traffic control in some areas has affected the arrival of coke at steel mills, and with the approaching military parade, more steel mills have production restrictions. The steel market outlook is weak, and steel mills mainly purchase on - demand. It is expected that the short - term coke futures market will oscillate [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: On Wednesday, the manganese silicon futures price oscillated weakly. The main contract closed at 5832 yuan/ton, a 0.92% decrease, and the positions in the main contract increased by 6261 lots to 306,000 lots. The market price of manganese silicon in various regions was 5620 - 5800 yuan/ton, remaining basically unchanged from the previous day. Recently, market sentiment has changed rapidly. On the previous day, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped in the late trading session, and the black - goods sector was weak, with coking coal leading the decline. Although the futures price has decreased, the spot market has strong price - holding sentiment. In terms of fundamentals, the production cost of manganese silicon is still relatively stable, and the price of port manganese ore remains unchanged. In terms of supply - demand, the weekly production of manganese silicon has been increasing, and the demand is relatively stable. There is no significant contradiction in the fundamentals, and it is not sufficient to support a continuous upward movement of the manganese silicon futures price. It is expected that the short - term manganese silicon futures price will mainly fluctuate with the overall black - goods market, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On Wednesday, the ferrosilicon futures price oscillated weakly. The main contract closed at 5634 yuan/ton, a 1.02% decrease, and the positions in the main contract decreased by 1503 lots to 218,300 lots. The aggregated price of ferrosilicon in various regions was about 5350 - 5400 yuan/ton, remaining basically unchanged from the previous day. Recently, market sentiment has been volatile. The decline of the Shanghai Composite Index in the late trading session affected the black - goods sector, and the ferrosilicon futures price dropped. In terms of fundamentals, the weekly production of ferrosilicon has been increasing, and the year - on - year increase exceeds 10%. The demand for steel has been suppressed, and the demand from sample steel mills for ferrosilicon has remained basically unchanged. The inventory pressure is acceptable, as the inventory of 60 sample enterprises, although still at a relatively high level in the same period of history, has decreased for two consecutive weeks. Overall, there are no major contradictions in the ferrosilicon fundamentals in the near term, and more attention should be paid to market sentiment. It is expected that ferrosilicon will mainly fluctuate with the overall black - goods market in the short term [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section in the Report 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: The report provides the latest contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black - goods products, along with their changes compared to the previous period. For example, the 10 - 1 spread for rebar is - 61.0, with a 11.0 increase; the basis for the 10 - contract is 179.0, with an 8.0 decrease; and the spot price in Shanghai is 3290.0, with a 10.0 decrease [3]. - **Profits and Spreads**: Information on profits and spreads of different products is also presented. For instance, the rebar futures profit is - 46.3, with a 5.4 increase; the long - process profit is 34.6, with a 6.4 decrease; the short - process profit is 15.6, with a 10.0 decrease; the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread is 238.0, with a 16.0 decrease; and the coke - to - iron - ore ratio is 2.2, with a 0.01 decrease [3]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report includes charts showing the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025, which helps in observing the long - term price trends of these products [5][7][9][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts of the basis for various products are provided, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, which can assist in analyzing the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][19][20][22][23][24][25]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report presents charts of the spreads between different contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for each product, which is useful for understanding the price differences between different contract periods [26][28][30][31][35][36][38][40]. - **Inter - product Contract Spreads**: Charts of the spreads between different products, such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - to - iron - ore ratio, rebar - to - coke ratio, coke - to - iron - ore ratio, coking coal - to - coke ratio, and ferrosilicon - manganese silicon spread, are shown, helping to analyze the relative price relationships between different black - goods products [42][43][45][47]. - **Rebar Profits**: Charts of the rebar futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit are provided, which can be used to assess the profitability of rebar production [46][48][52]. 3.3 Black Research Team Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black - goods research team, including their positions, work experience, professional qualifications, and achievements. For example, Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the research institute and the director of black - goods research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [54].

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 8 月 28 日） 一、研究观点 三、图表分析 点评 27 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2511 收于 8525 元/吨，日内跌幅 1.56%， 持仓减仓 6281 手至 27.6 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9442 元/吨，较 上一交易日下调 36 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格回调至 8750 元/吨， 现货升水扩至 245 元/吨。多晶硅震荡走弱，主力 2511 收于 48690 元/ 吨，日内跌幅 4.89%，持仓增仓 17059 手至 15.5 万手；多晶硅 N 型复 投硅料价格涨至 49000 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格跌至 49000 元/吨， 现货贴水收至 95 元/吨。工业硅成本随硅煤价格提升，硅厂向贸易商出 货量高而下游购货量偏少，上下空间收窄、延续调整节奏。反内卷完 成对多晶硅价格的基本把控，西南放产下社库和仓单持续增压，产业 出清并未实际推进，多晶硅量价分离格局持续扩大。多晶硅现货跟随 下游市场情绪降温、开始向下调价。短期反内卷相关动态对短期盘面 存在仍存驱动，或引导预期修正下回调幅度。建议谨慎高位布空，工 信部 9 月底前启动节能专项监察 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "Guangda Futures Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" - Date: August 28, 2025 [1] 1. Futures Contract Prices and Spreads 1.1 Futures Contract Prices - I05 closed at 753.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan from the previous day [3]. - I09 closed at 796.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan from the previous day [3]. - I01 closed at 775.5 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan from the previous day [3]. 1.2 Futures Contract Spreads - The spread between I05 and I09 was -43.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. - The spread between I09 and I01 was 21.0 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan from the previous day [3]. - The spread between I01 and I05 was 22.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan from the previous day [3]. 2. Basis Analysis 2.1 Basis Data - For various iron ore varieties such as Carajás fines (Carajás fines: 61 yuan today, up 1 yuan from the previous day), the basis values and their changes are presented. Some varieties like Mac fines had a stable basis, while others like FMG blended fines had a basis increase of 2 yuan [6]. 2.2 Basis Charts - There are charts for different basis benchmarks including Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, Australian low - grade fines, and domestic ores, etc. [8][9] 3. Policy - related Adjustments of Dalian Commodity Exchange 3.1 Adjustment of Deliverable Varieties - Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi concentrate powder, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian concentrate powder) were added, with brand premiums and discounts of 0, effective from the I2202 contract [11]. - Four more varieties (Taigang concentrate powder, Magang concentrate powder, Minmetals standard powder, SP10 powder) were added as deliverable brands, with brand premiums and discounts of 0, applicable to the I2312 and subsequent contracts [11]. 3.2 Adjustment of Brand Premiums and Discounts - Only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and the premiums and discounts of other deliverable brands are 0 yuan/ton [11]. 3.3 Adjustment of Substitute Quality Differences and Premiums and Discounts - The allowable range of iron grade index was adjusted to ≥56%, and the allowable ranges of silica, alumina, phosphorus, and sulfur were set. The premium and discount regulations for different index intervals were detailed, and a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the premium and discount value of the iron element index (X) was introduced [11]. 4. Variety Spreads 4.1 Variety Spread Data - The spreads between different iron ore varieties such as PB lump - PB fines (145.0 yuan/ton, unchanged), PB fines - blended fines (62.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan), etc. are presented [13]. 4.2 Variety Spread Charts - There are multiple charts showing different types of variety spreads, including lump - fines spreads, high - medium grade fines spreads, medium - low grade fines spreads, etc. [15][16][18] 5. Research Team Introduction - The black research team of Guangda Futures includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the industry [23]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Corn**: The corn market is in a state of shock. The spot price is weak, the supply is diverse, the downstream procurement intention is weak, and the new - grain listing pressure affects the futures price. Attention should be paid to the price performance of the 11 - month contract at the 2150 integer mark [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal market is volatile. CBOT soybeans are under pressure, and domestic soybean meal is under selling pressure. The strategy is to maintain a long - only mindset and participate in the monthly positive spread [1]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats market is in a state of shock. Weak demand currently restricts the upward movement, but if the spot demand starts, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and the basis is expected to strengthen. The strategy is to participate in the short - term and sell put options [1]. - **Eggs**: The egg market is in a state of shock. The futures price continues to decline, while the spot price rebounds. There is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in egg prices, but the rebound strength is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [1][2]. - **Hogs**: The hog market is in a state of shock. The futures price is weakly volatile, and the spot price varies in different regions. The short - term price is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to the impact of future demand and market sentiment on the market [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Corn**: On Wednesday, the main 2511 contract of corn increased in positions and rose slightly. The spot price is weak, with prices in Northeast China moving closer to new - grain prices and showing a continuous downward trend. The arrival volume of corn in Shandong deep - processing enterprises has increased, and the enterprise prices have been slightly adjusted downwards. The supply in the market is diverse, and the downstream procurement intention is weak. The futures price is affected by the new - grain listing pressure, with the near - month contract leading the decline. Attention should be paid to the 2150 integer mark of the 11 - month contract [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans closed lower. The domestic soybean meal increased in positions and declined, with large selling pressure. The state - reserve will sell 16.4 tons of soybeans on the 29th, and the expectation of Sino - US talks has alleviated the market's concerns about long - term supply, putting pressure on the Dalian soybean meal. The futures decline exceeds the spot decline, and the basis strengthens. The strategy is to maintain a long - only mindset and participate in the monthly positive spread [1]. - **Oils and Fats**: On Wednesday, BMD palm oil rose last week, but weak demand limited the increase. The import of palm oil in the EU is lower than the same period last year, reflecting weak demand. The Canadian rapeseed price has declined, and the market is waiting for the crop report. Domestic vegetable oils have declined, affected by the general decline of commodities and the weakness of the surrounding market. The demand is currently weak, but if the spot demand starts, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and the basis is expected to strengthen. The market is in a long - term upward trend. The strategy is to participate in the short - term and sell put options [1]. - **Eggs**: On Wednesday, the egg futures continued to decline. The main 2510 contract closed down 1.26%, and the near - month 2509 contract fluctuated at a low level, closing down 0.69%. The spot price has rebounded. Terminal markets purchase as they sell, and the procurement before the start of school is relatively active. There is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in egg prices, but considering the supply - side pressure, the rebound strength is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [1][2]. - **Hogs**: On Wednesday, the hog futures were weakly volatile. The main 2511 contract closed down 0.83%. The spot price varies in different regions. In the north, the terminal demand has slightly increased, and the pig price has risen slightly in some areas; in the south, large - scale farms have increased their sales, and the pig price has generally declined. The short - term price is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to the impact of future demand and market sentiment on the market [2]. Market Information - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has sent 8 working groups to 18 provinces for centralized research and guidance on autumn grain production and disaster prevention and mitigation, covering four aspects: field management, disaster prevention and mitigation, yield improvement, and "one - spray multi - promotion" [3]. - According to SGS data, the estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 25 is 933,437 tons, a 36.41% increase compared to the same period last month [3]. - Analysts expect Australia's wheat production to reach 32 - 35 million tons, and the estimate may be further raised. This will increase the global wheat supply [4]. Variety Spreads - The report provides charts of contract spreads and basis for various agricultural products, including corn, soybean meal, oils and fats, eggs, and hogs, but no specific spread or basis data analysis is provided [5][6][7][11][13][14][15][17][19][24]. Introduction of the Research Team - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many honors. Her contact information is provided [26]. - Hou Xueling is a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, with more than ten years of futures experience and many honors [26]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher on eggs and hogs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with relevant experience and honors [26].