Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - Currently, the path of interest rate cuts is unclear. Before the expectation of interest rate cuts improves significantly, the upward momentum of copper prices is insufficient. However, due to the resilience of the fundamentals, the downside space is also limited. Copper pricing returns to macro trading. Without significant macro disturbances, copper prices may mainly fluctuate within a range. The main reference range is 77,000 - 79,000 [1]. Aluminum - Recently, the aluminum price has been running strongly, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low during the off - season, and the market discount continues to widen. The macro - level domestic consumption stimulus and the "anti - involution" sentiment support the aluminum price, but the expected changes in the Fed's interest rate cuts and tariff events bring great uncertainty. In the short term, the price is still under high - level pressure, and the main contract price this month is expected to be in the range of 20,000 - 21,000. Follow - up attention should be paid to inventory changes and marginal changes in demand [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is currently tight, which provides certain cost support for recycled aluminum. However, the demand is suppressed by the traditional off - season, and the subsequent weak demand situation will continue to inhibit the upward momentum of prices. It is expected that the market will mainly show wide - range fluctuations, with the main contract reference range of 19,200 - 20,200. Attention should be paid to the supply and import changes of upstream scrap aluminum [5]. Zinc - The zinc ore TC has risen to 3,900 yuan/ton, but the growth rates of global and domestic zinc ore production in May and June were lower than expected. The supply on the supply side is loose, and the demand side is weak, which is not enough to boost the continuous rise of zinc prices. However, the low inventory provides price support. In the short term, it is expected that zinc prices will mainly fluctuate, with the main reference range of 22,000 - 23,000 [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is currently tight, and the processing fees of smelters remain low. The demand is expected to be weak in the future. If the supply of tin ore from Myanmar recovers smoothly in August, there is a large downward space for tin prices. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies. If the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high [11]. Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals have not changed much. The mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. In the short term, it is expected that the market will mainly adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [13]. Stainless Steel - The downstream acceptance of high - priced resources is not high, and the overall market transaction is average. The short - term market supply pressure is difficult to reduce, and the terminal demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to mainly fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the supply - demand rhythm [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Recently, market sentiment and news - related factors dominate the market trend. The trading core lies in the ore end. The supply uncertainty will inject trading variables into the market. The current supply - demand situation is in a tight balance as expected. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is steadily optimistic. It is expected that the main contract price may test around 75,000. For those without positions, it is advisable to wait and see cautiously. Pay attention to short - term news increments and supply adjustments [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.19% to 78,500 yuan/ton; the premium/discount increased by 10 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton. The price of SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.23% to 78,365 yuan/ton; the premium/discount increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton. The price of SMM wet - process copper increased by 0.18% to 78,390 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.15% to 734 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. In June, the electrolytic copper import volume was 300,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74%. The import copper concentrate index increased by 0.54 to - 42.09 dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.27%. The inventory of copper concentrates at domestic mainstream ports decreased by 7.01% to 521,600 tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.29% to 20,690 yuan/ton; the premium/discount decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton. The average price of alumina in Shandong, Henan, and Shanxi remained unchanged, while the average price in Guangxi remained unchanged, and the average price in Guizhou increased by 0.45% to 3,330 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina production was 7.6502 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7214 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11%. In June, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease; the export volume was 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.50% to 20,250 yuan/ton. The price of SMM East China ADC12, South China ADC12, and Northeast ADC12 all increased by 0.50% to 20,250 yuan/ton. The price of SMM Southwest ADC12 increased by 0.49% to 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 255,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.30%. The import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots was 77,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.21%; the export volume was 25,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.61% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.81% to 22,510 yuan/ton; the premium/discount decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton. The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot in Guangdong increased by 0.81% to 22,470 yuan/ton; the premium/discount decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc production was 602,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. In June, the refined zinc import volume was 36,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97%; the export volume was 1,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.24%. The galvanizing start - up rate decreased by 2.65 percentage points to 56.77%, the die - casting zinc alloy start - up rate decreased by 2.79 percentage points to 48.24%, and the zinc oxide start - up rate increased by 0.14 percentage points to 56.13% [8]. Tin Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.15% to 267,200 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton. The price of Yangtze River 1 tin decreased by 0.15% to 267,700 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium/discount decreased by 73.81% to - 73 dollars/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In June, the tin ore import volume was 11,911 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44%. The SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.94%. The refined tin import volume was 1,786 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.97%; the export volume was 1,973 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.47% [11]. Nickel Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.04% to 122,150 yuan/ton. The price of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 0.04% to 123,250 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 2,250 yuan/ton. The price of 1 imported nickel increased by 0.04% to 121,350 yuan/ton; the premium/discount remained unchanged at 350 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The refined nickel import volume was 19,157 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.90%. The SHFE inventory increased by 0.69% to 25,451 tons, the social inventory decreased by 0.14% to 40,281 tons, and the bonded area inventory increased by 10.64% to 5,200 tons [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.38% to 13,050 yuan/ton; the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.39% to 13,000 yuan/ton. The spot - futures price difference decreased by 6.38% to 220 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) was 1.7133 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in Indonesia (Qinglong) was 360,000 tons, remaining unchanged. The stainless steel import volume was 109,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.48%; the export volume was 390,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.63%; the net export volume was 280,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.89% [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.21% to 71,100 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.22% to 69,000 yuan/ton. The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide remained unchanged at 65,490 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide remained unchanged at 60,420 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - In July, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 61,320 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.40%; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate production was 20,210 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.22%. The lithium carbonate demand was 96,275 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. In June, the lithium carbonate import volume was 17,698 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.31%; the export volume was 430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 49.84% [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Short - term steel inventory pressure is not significant, but off - season demand has low acceptance of high prices. The price of the main contract is expected to fluctuate at high levels. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about chasing high prices [1]. Iron Ore - Unilateral strategy: It is recommended to short 2601 at high prices. Arbitrage strategy: It is recommended to go long on coking coal 01 and short iron ore 01 [5]. Coke - Speculative strategy: It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low prices. Arbitrage strategy: It is recommended to switch to a long - 9 short - 1 coke spread [8]. Coking Coal - Speculative strategy: It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices. Arbitrage strategy: It is recommended to switch to a long - 9 short - 1 coking coal reverse spread [8]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - For rebar, prices in East, North, and South China decreased or remained flat. Futures contract prices also declined slightly. For hot - rolled coils, prices in different regions decreased or were stable, and futures contract prices dropped [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 1 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar increased by 6 yuan/ton. Profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions increased to varying degrees [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.2 to 240.5, a decline of 0.1%. The output of five major steel products increased by 1.8 to 869.2, an increase of 0.2%. Rebar output increased by 10.1 to 221.2, a growth of 4.8%, with electric - arc furnace output rising by 15.4% and converter output increasing by 3.3%. Hot - rolled coil output decreased by 7.9 to 314.9, a decline of 2.4% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 23.5 to 1375.4, an increase of 1.7%. Rebar inventory increased by 10.4 to 556.7, a growth of 1.9%. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 8.7 to 356.6, an increase of 2.5% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume decreased by 0.9 to 9.7, a decline of 8.7%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 6.3 to 845.7, a decline of 0.7%. Rebar apparent demand increased by 7.4 to 210.8, a growth of 3.6%. Hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 13.8 to 306.2, a decline of 4.3% [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of some iron ore powders changed, with PB powder and Jinbuba powder decreasing, and Bahun powder increasing. The basis of 09 contracts for different powders also changed. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to - 40.5, a decline of 1.3%, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.5 to 18.5, a growth of 8.8%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1 to 22, a decline of 4.3% [5]. Supply and Demand - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 267.3 to 2507.8, a growth of 11.9%. The global weekly shipping volume decreased by 139.1 to 3061.8, a decline of 4.3%. The monthly national import volume increased by 782 to 10594.8, a growth of 8.0%. The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 to 240.7, a decline of 0.6%. The weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 12.4 to 302.7, a decline of 3.9%. The monthly national pig iron output decreased by 220.9 to 7190.5, a decline of 3.0%. The monthly national crude steel output decreased by 336.1 to 8318.4, a decline of 3.9% [5]. Inventory - The port inventory increased by 83.1 to 13740.97, an increase of 0.6%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 126.9 to 9012.1, an increase of 1.4%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1 to 20, a decline of 4.8% [5]. Coke Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged, and the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke increased by 20 to 1440, an increase of 1.4%. Coke futures contracts increased, and the coking profit decreased [8]. Supply and Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.1, an increase of 0.4%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 to 46.8, a decline of 0.4%. The 247 - steel - mill pig iron output decreased by 0.4 to 240.3, a decline of 0.24% [8]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 8.3 to 907.2, a decline of 0.9%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 3.9 to 69.7, a decline of 5.34%. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 7.4 to 619.3, a decline of 1.24%. The port inventory increased by 3.1 to 218.2, an increase of 1.4% [8]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal warehouse receipts in Shanxi and Mongolia increased. Coking coal futures contracts increased, and the basis decreased. The sample coal mine profit increased by 65 to 418, a growth of 18.4% [8]. Supply and Demand - The raw coal output increased by 6.4 to 868.7, an increase of 0.7%. The clean coal output increased by 3.1 to 444.1, an increase of 0.7% [8]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 13.9 to 118.8, a decline of 10.5%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 4.8 to 987.9, a decline of 0.54%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 4.9 to 808.7, an increase of 0.6%. The port inventory decreased by 4.8 to 277.3, a decline of 1.7% [8].

Report on the Rubber Industry 1. Core Viewpoint - Monitor the raw material supply situation during the peak production season in major producing areas. If the raw material supply goes smoothly, consider short - selling at high prices [1]. 2. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 14,400 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.69%. The basis of whole - latex rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased by 130 to - 1,125, a decline of 13.07%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35% [1]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 to - 975, a decline of 1.56%. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 10 to - 120, an increase of 7.69%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 5 to 1,095, an increase of 0.46% [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, Thailand's rubber production was 392,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.23%. Indonesia's production was 176,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.03%. India's production was 62,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.82%. China's production was 103,200 tons, a year - on - year increase [1]. Inventory Change - The bonded area inventory increased by 5,798 tons to 640,384 tons, an increase of 0.91%. The warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 2,318 tons to 39,716 tons, an increase of 6.20% [1]. Report on the Log Industry 1. Core Viewpoint - The supply pressure may increase. The demand is in the off - season, and the spot price is still under pressure. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 800 - 850 [3]. 2. Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Price - The price of Log 2509 remained unchanged at 832.5. The price of Log 2511 decreased by 0.5 to 840, a decline of 0.06%. The price of Log 2601 remained unchanged at 841.5 [3]. Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged at 7.183. The import theoretical cost increased by 13.84 yuan to 818.70 yuan [3]. Supply - In June, the port shipping volume was 1.76 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 2.12%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 5 to 53, a decline of 8.62% [3]. Inventory - As of August 1, the total inventory of national coniferous logs was 3.17 million cubic meters. The inventory in Shandong increased by 20,000 cubic meters to 1.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 1.04%. The inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 56,000 cubic meters to 960,000 cubic meters, a decline of 5.55% [3]. Demand - As of August 1, the average daily outbound volume of logs was 64,200 cubic meters. The demand last week increased by 10,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week [3]. Report on the Glass and Soda Ash Industry 1. Core Viewpoint Soda Ash - The supply is in excess. The spot sales are weak. Consider short - selling at high prices in the short - term and monitor the implementation of policies and the load - regulation of soda ash plants [4]. Glass - The futures price has weakened, and the market sentiment has declined. The overall spot price is difficult to increase further. Hold short positions and monitor the implementation of policies and the stocking performance of downstream industries [4]. 2. Summary by Directory Glass - related Price and Spread - The prices in North China, East China, and South China decreased, while the price in Central China remained unchanged. The prices of Glass 2505 and Glass 2509 decreased [4]. Soda Ash - related Price and Spread - The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The prices of Soda Ash 2505 and Soda Ash 2509 decreased [4]. Supply - The soda ash production rate increased from 80.27% to 85.41%, and the weekly production increased by 45,000 tons to 744,700 tons [4]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory increased by 2.348 million weight - cases to 61.847 million weight - cases, an increase of 3.95%. The soda ash factory inventory increased by 69,300 tons to 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% [4]. Report on the Industrial Silicon Industry 1. Core Viewpoint - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable with a slight increase. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton in August. Consider buying at low prices when the price drops to 8,000 - 8,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to position control and risk management [5]. 2. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton. The basis increased by 45 to 595, an increase of 8.18% [5]. Monthly Spread - The 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 130 to 40, an increase of 144.44%. The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 10 to - 25, a decline of 66.67% [5]. Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon production was 300,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.10%. The organic silicon DMC production was 199,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.54% [5]. Inventory Change - The Xinjiang factory inventory decreased by 1,200 tons to 116,900 tons, a decline of 1.02%. The social inventory increased by 7,000 tons to 547,000 tons, an increase of 1.30% [5]. Report on the Polysilicon Industry 1. Core Viewpoint - The polysilicon price fluctuates and declines. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 45,000 - 58,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying at low prices and buying put options to short at high prices [6]. 2. Summary by Directory Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged at 47,000 yuan/ton. The basis of N - type material increased by 1,235 to - 3,110, an increase of 28.42% [6]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The price of the main contract decreased by 1,235 to 20,110, a decline of 2.41%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 2,075 to - 10, an increase of 99.52% [6]. Fundamental Data - The weekly silicon wafer production was 12.02 GW, a year - on - year increase of 9.27%. The weekly polysilicon production was 29,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.94% [6]. Inventory Change - The polysilicon inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 233,000 tons, an increase of 1.75%. The silicon wafer inventory increased by 960,000 pieces to 19.11 million pieces, an increase of 5.29% [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report 2.1. Fats and Oils Industry - Palm oil: Concerns about production growth and inventory increases in the fundamentals. In the short - term, focus on whether palm oil futures can effectively break below the support of 4,250 ringgit. In the domestic market, it will likely fluctuate between 8,900 - 9,000 yuan. If it fails to gain support at 8,900 yuan, there may be downward pressure to seek support between 8,600 - 8,700 yuan [2]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil is in a stage of stagnant growth and correction. The expected high - yield of US soybeans and possible decrease in demand may suppress the performance of US soybeans, affecting CBOT soybean oil from the cost side. In the domestic market, the catering industry is weak, and fat consumption is poor. Traders expect demand to pick up in the second half of the month. Short - term basis quotes have limited fluctuation, and there is a possibility of long - term increase [2]. 2.2. Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs is weakly declining. The current supply - demand situation is weak. In August, the supply from large farms is expected to recover, and there is also an need to sell large pigs that were previously held back by small farmers. The short - term pig price is not optimistic. The spot price is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern, with strong resistance for the near - term 09 contract. The far - term 01 contract is greatly affected by policies, and blind short - selling is not recommended. Attention should be paid to the impact of hedging funds [4]. 2.3. Meal Industry - The overall trend of US soybeans is weak, with demand restricted by US foreign trade policies and good production performance. The rising Brazilian premium supports domestic import costs. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, with high arrivals and high operating rates in the short - term. After October, soybean arrivals may decline. The US soybeans are expected to have strong support around 970 - 980 cents, and the downward space for domestic soybean meal is relatively limited. Long positions in the 2601 contract can be held [7]. 2.4. Corn Industry - The sentiment in the Northeast region is poor, with increased willingness to sell and weakening spot prices. In North China, traders' inventories are relatively tight, and the willingness to sell at low prices is low. The short - term futures price rebounds slightly due to reduced selling volume, but the market sentiment remains weak, and the futures price will remain in a low - level oscillation. In the long - term, the cost of new - season corn is decreasing, and production may increase steadily, with supply pressure remaining, and the futures price valuation may decline [9]. 2.5. Sugar Industry - In the international market, the strong production in Brazil has pressured the raw sugar price to decline slightly. India and Thailand have full expectations of high yields, and attention should be paid to the weather. The raw sugar price is unlikely to break the previous low in the short - term, but a bearish view should be maintained overall, with attention to the pressure at 17 - 17.5 cents per pound. In the domestic market, demand is weak, and low inventory supports the spot price in Guangxi. With the entry of processed sugar into the market and expected increase in imports, the domestic sugar price is expected to be bearish [14][15]. 2.6. Cotton Industry - Last week, the supply - side pressure of low - basis lint decreased marginally, but the downstream industry is still weak. After the cotton price decline, downstream观望 sentiment and pessimism increased, yarn prices followed the decline, and textile enterprises' finished - product inventories increased again. Some weaving factories have more holidays. Considering the large decline in the 09 - contract cotton price recently, positions can be gradually liquidated for profit - taking, and short positions in the far - term contracts can be held [16]. 2.7. Egg Industry - The estimated laying - hen inventory in August is expected to increase to 1.363 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.52%. Although the egg - laying rate is lower due to high - temperature weather, the overall egg supply is increasing as cold - storage eggs are being released. In August, the market demand will enter the peak season due to Mid - Autumn Festival备货, tourism, and school - opening. The spot egg price may rebound, but overall, a bearish trading strategy should be adopted, and attention should be paid to the disturbance of low - level funds [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Fats and Oils Industry - **Soybean oil**: The current price in Jiangsu is 8,630 yuan, up 0.58% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 is 8,406 yuan, unchanged; the basis is 224 yuan, up 28.74%; the warehouse receipt is 15,370, up 33.19% [2]. - **Palm oil**: The current price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,000 yuan, up 0.56%; the futures price of P2509 is 8,950 yuan, down 0.22%; the basis is 50 yuan, up 350%; the warehouse receipt is 570, unchanged [2]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The current price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,630 yuan, down 0.72%; the futures price of 01509 is 8,496 yuan, down 0.69%; the basis is 134 yuan, down 2.9%; the warehouse receipt is 3,487, unchanged [2]. 3.2. Pig Industry - **Futures indicators**: The main - contract basis is - 445, down 71.15%; the price of the 2511 contract is 14,100 yuan/ton, up 0.64%; the price of the 2601 contract is 14,395 yuan/ton, up 0.59%; the 11 - 1 spread is - 295, up 1.67%; the main - contract position is 20,598, up 1.06%; the warehouse receipt is 380, unchanged [4]. - **Spot prices**: The spot prices in Henan, Shandong, Sichuan, Liaoning, Guangdong, Hunan, and Hebei are all declining, with a range of 100 - 250 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spot indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 139,287, up 2.78%; the weekly white - strip price is 20.36 yuan, down 0.83%; the weekly piglet price is 27 yuan/kg, up 3.85%; the weekly sow price is 32.52 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly slaughter weight is 127.8 kg, down 0.14%; the weekly self - breeding profit is 44 yuan/head, down 29.46%; the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit is - 117 yuan/head, down 63.58%; the monthly breeding - sow inventory is 4,043 million heads, up 0.02% [4]. 3.3. Meal Industry - **Soybean meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2,920 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of M2509 is 3,031 yuan, up 0.17%; the basis is - 111 yuan, down 4.72%; the warehouse receipt is 10,950, unchanged [7]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2,630 yuan, down 2.23%; the futures price of RM2509 is 2,739 yuan, down 0.22%; the basis is - 109 yuan, down 98.18%; the warehouse receipt is 3,953, up 229.42% [7]. - **Soybeans**: The current price of soybeans in Harbin is 3,960 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main - contract of soybean No. 1 is 4,134 yuan, up 0.39%; the basis is - 174 yuan, down 10.13%; the current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3,660 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main - contract of soybean No. 2 is 3,741 yuan, up 0.32%; the basis is - 81 yuan, down 17.39%; the warehouse receipt is 13,573, down 0.35% [7]. 3.4. Corn Industry - **Corn**: The price of the 2509 contract at Jinzhou Port is 2,267 yuan, up 0.35%; the basis is 33 yuan, down 45.9%; the 9 - 1 spread is 72 yuan, up 10.77%; the price of bulk grain at Shekou is 2,390 yuan, unchanged; the north - south trade profit is 19 yuan, up 2000%; the CIF price is 1,927 yuan, down 0.05%; the import profit is 463 yuan, up 0.23%; the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning is 163, down 22.75%; the trading volume is 1,692,629, down 0.55%; the warehouse receipt is 145,795, down 0.43% [9]. - **Corn starch**: The price of the 2509 contract is 2,660 yuan, down 0.08%; the spot price in Changchun is 2,710 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Weifang is 2,950 yuan, unchanged; the basis is 50 yuan, up 4.17%; the 9 - 1 spread is 94 yuan, down 3.09%; the starch - corn futures spread is 393 yuan, down 2.48%; the profit of Shandong starch enterprises is - 118 yuan, up 2.48%; the position is 281,327, up 0.46%; the warehouse receipt is 7,450, unchanged [9]. 3.5. Sugar Industry - **Futures market**: The price of the 2601 contract is 5,585 yuan/ton, down 0.76%; the price of the 2509 contract is 5,667 yuan, down 0.28%; the price of the ICE raw - sugar main - contract is 16.03 cents/pound, down 0.06%; the 1 - 9 spread is - 82 yuan/ton, down 49.09%; the main - contract position is 161,306, down 6.5%; the warehouse receipt is 18,812, down 0.99%; the valid forecast is 0 [14]. - **Spot market**: The price in Nanning is 5,970 yuan, down 1.00%; the price in Kunming is 5,830 yuan, down 0.17%; the Nanning basis is 303 yuan, down 12.68%; the Kunming basis is 163 yuan, up 3.82%; the price of imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4,398 yuan/ton, down 0.79%; the price of imported Brazilian sugar (outside quota) is 5,584 yuan/ton, down 0.82%; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) and Nanning is - 1,572 yuan, up 1.57%; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (outside quota) and Nanning is - 386 yuan, up 3.50% [14]. 3.6. Cotton Industry - **Futures market**: The price of the 2509 contract is 13,670 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the price of the 2601 contract is 13,832 yuan/ton, down 0.11%; the price of the ICE US - cotton main - contract is 66.36 cents/pound, down 0.84%; the 9 - 1 spread is - 165 yuan/ton, down 3.13%; the main - contract position is 272,133, down 3.32%; the warehouse receipt is 8,329, down 1.59%; the valid forecast is 348, unchanged [16]. - **Spot market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B is 15,089 yuan, up 0.04%; the CC Index of 3128B is 15,191 yuan, up 0.09%; the FC Index of M: 1% is 13,420 yuan, down 0.45%; the price difference between 3128B and the 01 contract is 1,419 yuan, up 1.87%; the price difference between 3128B and the 05 contract is 1,254 yuan, up 1.70%; the price difference between CC Index of 3128B and FC Index of M: 1% is 1,771 yuan, up 4.30% [16]. - **Industry situation**: The inventory is 254.24 million tons, down 10.2%; the industrial inventory is 88.21 million tons, down 2.3%; the import volume is 3 million tons, down 25%; the bonded - area inventory is 32.7 million tons, down 2.7%; the year - on - year inventory of the textile industry is 0.80%, down 57.9%; the yarn inventory days are 28.36 days, up 4.1%; the grey - cloth inventory days are 37.24 days, up 1.7%; the cotton outbound shipment volume is 53.46 million tons, up 22.6%; the immediate processing profit of spinning enterprises for C32s is - 2,090.10 yuan/ton, down 1.7%; the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted goods are 1,275.40 billion yuan, up 4.1%; the year - on - year monthly retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted goods are 1.90%, down 52.5%; the export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products is 116.04 billion US dollars, down 3.7%; the year - on - year monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products is 0.52%, up 131.7%; the export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 151.62 billion US dollars, down 0.7%; the year - on - year export value of clothing and clothing accessories is - 0.61%, down 176.8% [16]. 3.7. Egg Industry - **Futures market**: The price of the 09 contract is 3,391 yuan/500KG, up 0.38%; the price of the 10 contract is 3,292 yuan/500KG, up 0.21%; the 9 - 10 spread is 99 yuan/500KG, up 6.45% [19]. - **Spot market**: The egg - producing area price is 2.92 yuan/jin, unchanged; the basis is - 475 yuan/500KG, down 2.81% [19]. - **Industry indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicks is 3.85 yuan/feather, down 0.77%; the price of culled hens is 5.88 yuan/jin, up 4.26%; the egg - feed ratio is 2.64, up 1.54%; the breeding profit is - 10.15 yuan/feather, up 17.68% [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report No explicit core view is presented in the given content. The report mainly provides price and related data of various futures and spot commodities. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF509)**: The spot price is 5878, the futures price is 5834, the basis is 44, and the basis rate is 0.75%. The historical quantile is 63.40% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM509)**: The spot price is 6090, the futures price is 6064, the basis is 26, and the basis rate is 0.43% [1]. - **Rebar (RB2510)**: The spot price is 3360, the futures price is 3231, the basis is 129, and the basis rate is 3.99%. The historical quantile is 58.60% [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2510)**: The spot price is 3460, the futures price is 3440, the basis is 20, and the basis rate is 0.58%. The historical quantile is 25.20% [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2509)**: The spot price is 793, the futures price has a 5.84% decrease in the converted price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder. The historical quantile is 26.50% [1]. - **Coke (J2509)**: The spot price is 1668, the futures price is 1570, the basis is 97, and the basis rate is 6.19%. The historical quantile is 13.09% [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: The spot price is 1230, the futures price is 1134, the basis is 96, and the basis rate is 8.44%. The historical quantile is 14.40% [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2509)**: The spot price is 78500, the futures price is 78460, the basis is 40, and the basis rate is 0.05%. The historical quantile is 47.29% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2509)**: The spot price is 20750, the futures price is 20690, the basis is 60, and the basis rate is 0.29%. The historical quantile is 33.95% [1]. - **Alumina (AO2509)**: The spot price is 3251, the futures price is 3211, the basis is 40, and the basis rate is 1.23%. The historical quantile is 42.29% [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2509)**: The spot price is 22580, the futures price is 22440, the basis is 140, and the basis rate is 0.62%. The historical quantile is 19.16% [1]. - **Tin (SN2509)**: The spot price is 267940, the futures price is 267200, the basis is 740, and the basis rate is 0.28%. The historical quantile is 25.00% [1]. - **Nickel (NI2509)**: The spot price is 121850, the futures price is 121350, the basis is 500, and the basis rate is 0.41%. The historical quantile is 31.04% [1]. - **Stainless Steel (SS2509)**: The spot price is 13220, the futures price is 13000, the basis is 220, and the basis rate is 1.69%. The historical quantile is 49.57% [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2511)**: The spot price is 72300, the futures price is 71100, the basis is 1200, and the basis rate is 1.66%. The historical quantile is 31.71% [1]. - **Industrial Silicon (SI2511)**: The spot price is 9250, the futures price is 8655, the basis and basis rate are not clearly presented. The historical quantile is 40.64% [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2510)**: The spot price is 785.0, the futures price is 782.0, the basis is 3.0, and the basis rate is 0.38%. The historical quantile is 21.00% [1]. - **Silver (AG2510)**: The spot price is 9258.0, the futures price is 9224.0, the basis is 34.0, and the basis rate is 0.37%. The historical quantile is 20.20% [1]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2509)**: The spot price is 3031.0, the futures price is 2920, the basis is 111.0, and the basis rate is 3.66%. The historical quantile is 16.80% [1]. - **Soybean Oil (Y2601)**: The spot price is 8500, the futures price is 8378.0, the basis is 122.0, and the basis rate is 1.46%. The historical quantile is 12.70% [1]. - **Palm Oil (P2509)**: The spot price is 8960, the futures price is 8950.0, the basis is 10.0, and the basis rate is 0.11%. The historical quantile is 18.50% [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM509)**: The spot price is 2739.0, the futures price is 2590, the basis is 149.0, and the basis rate is 5.44%. The historical quantile is 7.00% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil (OI509)**: The spot price is 9580, the futures price is 9496.0, the basis is 84.0, and the basis rate is 0.88%. The historical quantile is 37.00% [1]. - **Corn (C2509)**: The spot price is 2300, the futures price is 2267.0, the basis is 33.0, and the basis rate is 1.46%. The historical quantile is 63.10% [1]. - **Corn Starch (CS2509)**: The spot price is 2750, the futures price is 2660.0, the basis is 90.0, and the basis rate is 3.38%. The historical quantile is 41.70% [1]. - **Live Hogs (LH2501)**: The spot price is 13950, the futures price is 14100.0, the basis is - 150.0, and the basis rate is 1.06%. The historical quantile is 40.10% [1]. - **Eggs (JD2509)**: The spot price is 3391.0, the futures price is 2870, the basis is 521.0, and the basis rate is 15.36%. The historical quantile is 6.40% [1]. - **Cotton (CF509)**: The spot price is 15089, the futures price is 13670.0, the basis is 1419.0, and the basis rate is 9.24%. The historical quantile is 10.38% [1]. - **Sugar (SR601)**: The spot price is 6030, the futures price is 5585.0, the basis is 445.0, and the basis rate is 7.97%. The historical quantile is 67.70% [1]. - **Apples (AP510)**: The spot price is 8280, the futures price is 7940.0, the basis is 340.0, and the basis rate is 4.28%. The historical quantile is 36.20% [1]. - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: The spot price is 8300, the futures price is 11115.0, the basis is - 2815.0, and the basis rate is 25.33%. The historical quantile is 4.50% [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Para - Xylene (PX509)**: The spot price is 6907.5, the futures price is 6756.0, the basis is 151.5, and the basis rate is 2.24%. The historical quantile is 66.10% [1]. - **PTA (TA509)**: The spot price is 4688.0, the futures price is 4675.0, the basis is 13.0, and the basis rate is 0.28%. The historical quantile is 47.00% [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2509)**: The spot price is 4465.0, the futures price is 4396.0, the basis is 69.0, and the basis rate is 1.57%. The historical quantile is 84.50% [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF510)**: The spot price is 6490.0, the futures price is 6392.0, the basis is 98.0, and the basis rate is 1.53%. The historical quantile is 68.50% [1]. - **Styrene (EB2509)**: The spot price is 7345.0, the futures price is 7296.0, the basis is 49.0, and the basis rate is 0.67%. The historical quantile is 36.90% [1]. - **Methanol (MA509)**: The spot price is 2388.0, the futures price is 2382.5, the basis is 5.5, and the basis rate is 0.23%. The historical quantile is 32.70% [1]. - **Urea (UR509)**: The spot price is 1780.0, the futures price is 1737.0, the basis is 43.0, and the basis rate is 2.48%. The historical quantile is 24.60% [1]. - **LLDPE (L2509)**: The spot price is 7300.0, the futures price is 7297.0, the basis is 3.0, and the basis rate is 0.04%. The historical quantile is 21.30% [1]. - **PP (PP2509)**: The spot price is 7120.0, the futures price is 7075.0, the basis is 45.0, and the basis rate is 0.64%. The historical quantile is 35.00% [1]. - **PVC (V2509)**: The spot price is 5046.0, the futures price is 4910.0, the basis is 136.0, and the basis rate is 2.70%. The historical quantile is 41.60% [1]. - **Caustic Soda (SH509)**: The spot price is 2500.0, the futures price is 2413.0, the basis is 87.0, and the basis rate is 3.61%. The historical quantile is 64.80% [1]. - **LPG (PG2509)**: The spot price is 4348.0, the futures price is 3823.0, the basis is 525.0, and the basis rate is 13.73%. The historical quantile is 70.00% [1]. - **Asphalt (BU2510)**: The spot price is 3760.0, the futures price is 3528.0, the basis is 232.0, and the basis rate is 6.58%. The historical quantile is 84.60% [1]. - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2509)**: The spot price is 11535.0, the futures price is 11500.0, the basis is 35.0, and the basis rate is 0.30%. The historical quantile is not clearly presented [1]. - **Glass (FG509)**: The spot price is 1104.0, the futures price is 1076.0, the basis is 28.0, and the basis rate is 2.54%. The historical quantile is 72.05% [1]. - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: The spot price is 1357.0, the futures price is 1257.0, the basis is 100.0, and the basis rate is 7.96%. The historical quantile is 4.41% [1]. - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: The spot price is 15525.0, the futures price is 14400.0, the basis is 1125.0, and the basis rate is not clearly presented. The historical quantile is 20.41% [1]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: - **IF2509.CFF**: The spot price is 4114.7, the futures price is 4092.6, the basis is 22.1, and the basis rate is 0.54%. The historical quantile is 20.10% [1]. - **IH2509.CFE**: The spot price is 2798.3, the futures price is 2797.8, the basis is 0.5, and the basis rate is 0.02%. The historical quantile is 55.20% [1]. - **IC2509.CFE**: The spot price is 6337.5, the futures price is 6226.4, the basis is 111.1, and the basis rate is 1.79%. The historical quantile is 1.70% [1]. - **IM2509.CFE**: The spot price is 6862.1, the futures price is 6750.0, the basis is 112.1, and the basis rate is 1.66%. The historical quantile is 11.50% [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - **2 - Year Treasury Bond (TS2509)**: The spot price is 102.37, the futures price is 100.30, the basis is 0.01, and the basis rate is 0.01%. The historical quantile is 30.40% [1]. - **5 - Year Treasury Bond (TF2509)**: The spot price is 105.82, the futures price is 101.01, the basis is 0.05, and the basis rate is 0.04%. The historical quantile is 33.50% [1]. - **10 - Year Treasury Bond (T2509)**: The spot price is 108.61, the futures price is not clearly presented, the basis is 0.07, and the basis rate is 0.06%. The historical quantile is 23.80% [1]. - **30 - Year Treasury Bond (TL2509)**: The spot price is 134.87, the futures price is 119.34, the basis is 0.27, and the basis rate is 0.22%. The historical quantile is 35.40% [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each variety: - **Buy Suggestions**: Index futures (sell far - month contracts), Treasury bonds (buy on dips), Precious metals (low - buying for silver, hold gold long - positions), Iron ore (buy on dips), Coking coal (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Coke (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Copper (hold), Aluminum (range - trading), Zinc (range - trading), Nickel (range - trading), Urea (buy on dips, quick profit - taking), PTA (range - trading, TA1 - 5 reverse spread, expand processing margin), PP (range - trading, stop - loss for previous short - positions), Maize (long - position for 01 contract), Industrial silicon (hold call options), Polysilicon (hold call options) [2] - **Sell Suggestions**: Gold (sell put options below 760 yuan), Steel (sell on rallies), Container shipping index (sell on rallies), Alumina (range - trading), Crude oil (wait for geopolitical clarity), Caustic soda (hold short - positions), PVC (stop - loss for short - positions), Pure benzene (observe or short - term long), Styrene (range - trading), Synthetic rubber (observe), LLDPE (short - term long), Cotton (reduce near - month short - positions, hold 01 short - positions), Eggs (long - term short), Apples (observe around 7800), Glass (hold short - positions), Carbonate lithium (observe cautiously) [2] 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: The second round of China - US trade talks extended tariff exemption clauses, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, causing short - term market expectation differences. The policy negatives were exhausted in early August, and the capital market became looser [2]. - **Market Trends**: Index futures continued to rise, TMT regained popularity; Treasury bonds were expected to oscillate upward; Precious metals' upward trend slowed down; The container shipping index was expected to be weak; Steel and iron ore prices fluctuated; Non - ferrous metals were supported by fundamentals; Energy and chemical products showed different trends; Agricultural products were affected by factors such as production expectations and inventory; Special and new energy products had their own characteristics in price movements [2]. 3. Summary by Variety **Financial** - **Index Futures**: Continued to rise, with TMT heating up again. Recommended selling far - month contracts and shorting MO put options with strike prices of 6300 - 6400, with a mild bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With policy negatives exhausted and loose funds, they were expected to oscillate upward. Suggested buying on dips and paying attention to July economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend slowed down, and silver was affected by market sentiment. Gold long - positions were held above 3300 dollars (770 yuan), and silver was bought at low levels around 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. **Industrial** - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: Expected to be weakly oscillating, with a strategy of selling on rallies [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel turned to oscillation, and iron ore followed steel price fluctuations. Suggested buying on dips for iron ore and using a long - coking coal and short - iron ore strategy [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was supported by fundamentals, and the price range was 77000 - 79000; Aluminum was oscillating, and the range was 20000 - 21000; Zinc was oscillating in a narrow range, and the range was 22000 - 23000; Nickel was oscillating strongly, and the range was 118000 - 126000 [2]. **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Weakly oscillating, with a strategy of waiting for geopolitical clarity. Support levels were [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [490, 500] for SC [2]. - **Urea**: There was a game between export drive and weak domestic consumption. The short - term strategy was to buy on dips and take quick profits, and exit long - positions if the price did not break through 1770 - 1780 [2]. - **PTA**: With low processing fees and limited cost support, it was expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800. TA1 - 5 was treated with a reverse spread, and the processing margin was expanded at a low level (around 250) [2]. **Agricultural** - **Soybean Meal and Maize**: Maize was oscillating weakly, and the 01 contract of soybean meal was held long due to import concerns [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The price pulled back due to expected inventory increases. Observed whether P09 could stand firm at 9000 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market was weak. Near - month short - positions were reduced, and 01 short - positions were held [2]. **Special and New Energy** - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened, and the contract was held short [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both were oscillating upward, and call options were held [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was pulled up by news, but there were uncertainties in the mining end. It was mainly observed cautiously [2].

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 8 月 7 日星期四 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010 ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年8月7日 | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 島神 | 用新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 价元 | -16.49 | 26.30% | F期到分类 | 4.96 | 33.60% | | | | | | | H期现价差 | -1.22 | -1.49 | 49.50% | 51.10% | 期现价差 | IC期现价差 | -94.18 | 10.46 | 11.80% | 3.50% | IM期现价差 | -98.71 | 6.77 | 80.0096 | 13.80% | | 次月-当月 | -10.40 | 2.60 | 31.50% | 36.30% | 李月-当月 | -40.40 | 3.60 | 23.7096 | 27.0096 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - Currently, the path of interest rate cuts is unclear. Without a significant improvement in interest rate cut expectations, the upward momentum of copper prices is insufficient. After the disappointment of US copper tariffs, the electrolytic copper market in non - US regions shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weak actual demand", and the spot contradictions are gradually resolved. Copper pricing returns to macro trading, and it may still fluctuate within a range without significant macro disturbances. The reference range for the main contract is 77,000 - 79,000 [1]. Zinc - The TC of zinc ore has risen to 3,900 yuan/ton, but the growth rates of global mine output in May and domestic mine output in June are both lower than expected. The smelter's enthusiasm for resuming production is high, and the smelter's operating rate is stronger than the seasonality. The supply - side relaxation logic of the mine end is gradually transmitted to the smelting end, and the domestic refined zinc output in July exceeded expectations. The demand side is significantly suppressed by the strong disk price, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is frustrated. The basic situation of "loose supply + weak demand" is not enough to boost the continuous rise of zinc prices, but the low inventory provides price support. It is expected that zinc prices will still operate in a shock in the short term, and the reference range for the main contract is 22,000 - 23,000 [4]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is supported to rebound, and the basis weakens, but the market will remain slightly oversupplied in the future, and the core driver lies in the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. It is expected that the main contract will operate in the range of 3,000 - 3,400 in the short term. For aluminum, under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weak demand, and macro disturbances, it is expected that the price will still be under pressure at a high level in the short term, and the reference range for the main contract this month is 20,000 - 21,000 [7]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum in the market is relatively tight, which provides certain support for recycled aluminum on the cost side. The demand side is continuously suppressed by the traditional off - season, and the subsequent weak demand situation will continue, which will continuously suppress the upward momentum of prices. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate in a wide range, and the reference range for the main contract is 19,200 - 20,200 [8]. Tin - The actual supply of tin ore remains tight, and the processing fees of smelters continue to be at a low level. The demand is expected to be weak in the future. Attention should be paid to the resumption of tin ore imports from Myanmar in August. If the supply resumes smoothly, there is a large downward space for tin prices; if the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [9]. Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals do not change much. The medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. It is expected that the disk will adjust within a range in the short term, and the reference range for the main contract is 118,000 - 126,000 [10]. Stainless Steel - Recently, the disk is mainly driven by policies and macro - emotions. The short - term sentiment is temporarily stable, but the policy support still exists, and the spot demand on the fundamentals does not drive significantly. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate in the short term, and the reference range for the main contract is 12,600 - 13,200 [11]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term suspension expectation of the market is fermenting, and the uncertainty on the supply side will inject trading variables into the disk. Currently, the supply - demand balance is in line with expectations. The upstream operating rate changes little, and the supply remains sufficient. The demand performance is stable. Recently, the market sentiment and news - surface disturbances dominate the disk trend. The main contract price is expected to fluctuate widely around 67,000 - 72,000. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading without a position [13][14]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,350 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous value; the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 100 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2508 - 2509 are - 10 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,330 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous value; the import profit and loss is - 1,474 yuan/ton, up 75.56 yuan from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2508 - 2509 are - 25 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,630 yuan/ton, up 0.54% from the previous value; the import profit and loss is - 1,294 yuan/ton, up 39.9 yuan from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2508 - 2509 are 30 yuan/ton [7]. Aluminum Alloy - SMM aluminum alloy ADC15 price is 20,150 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2511 - 2512 are 20 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - SMM 1 tin price is 267,600 yuan/ton, up 0.22% from the previous value; the LME 0 - 3 premium is - 42.00 US dollars/ton, down 3.00 US dollars from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2508 - 2509 are - 470 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122,100 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous value; the LME 0 - 3 is - 206 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2509 - 2510 are - 100 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; the spot - futures spread is 235 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2509 - 2510 are - 60 yuan/ton [11]. Lithium Carbonate - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 70,950 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous value; the basis (based on SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate) is 2,090 yuan/ton, down 1,810 yuan from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2508 - 2509 are - 400 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data Copper - In July, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1743 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; in June, the electrolytic copper import volume was 300,500 tons, up 18.74% month - on - month. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 521,600 tons, down 7.01% week - on - week [1]. Zinc - In July, the refined zinc output was 602,800 tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; in June, the refined zinc import volume was 36,100 tons, up 34.97% month - on - month. The galvanizing operating rate was 56.77%, down 2.65% week - on - week [4]. Aluminum - In July, the alumina output was 7.6502 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.7214 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month. The aluminum profile operating rate was 50.00%, down 0.99% week - on - week [7]. Aluminum Alloy - In June, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, up 1.49% month - on - month; the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 255,000 tons, down 2.30% month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53.60%, up 3.02% week - on - week [8]. Tin - In June, the tin ore import volume was 11,911 tons, down 11.44% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin output was 13,810 tons, down 6.94% month - on - month. The SHEF inventory was 7,671 tons, up 3.42% week - on - week [9]. Nickel - The domestic refined nickel output was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; the refined nickel import volume was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month. The SHFE inventory was 25,451 tons, up 0.69% week - on - week [10]. Stainless Steel - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel output (43 manufacturers) was 1.7133 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the stainless steel import volume was 109,500 tons, down 12.48% month - on - month. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) was 514,800 tons, down 0.20% week - on - week [11]. Lithium Carbonate - In July, the lithium carbonate output was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; the battery - grade lithium carbonate output was 61,320 tons, up 6.40% month - on - month. The total lithium carbonate inventory in July was 97,846 tons, down 2.01% month - on - month [13].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core Viewpoints Steel - In the short - term, steel inventory pressure is not significant. With demand shifting from the off - peak to the peak season, steel prices are expected to be supported. It is recommended to hold existing long positions, and be cautious about chasing long due to limited release of terminal demand. The main risk lies in the interference of coking coal supply expectations [1] Iron Ore - The shipment volume is expected to decline, while the iron level will remain high in August. Steel exports are strong, short - term iron water toughness persists. Considering the upcoming policies and potential production restrictions, iron ore prices will mainly follow steel prices. It is recommended to go long on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Coke has potential for further price increases, and coking coal prices are generally stable with an upward bias. Supply is tight, and demand has some support. It is recommended to go long on dips for both coking coal 2601 and coke 2601, and switch to a positive spread strategy for both coke 9 - 1 and coking coal 9 - 1 [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Price and Spread - For rebar, spot prices in East China, North China, and South China mostly increased, while futures prices of different contracts also showed minor increases. For hot - rolled coils, spot prices remained stable, and futures prices decreased slightly [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices increased, and costs of different steelmaking processes in different regions showed varying degrees of increase. Profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions also increased [1] Production - Daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.6% to 240.7 tons, and the output of five major steel products increased by 0.1% to 867.4 tons. Rebar production decreased by 0.4%, while hot - rolled coil production increased by 1.7% [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 1.2% to 1351.9 tons, rebar inventory increased by 1.4% to 546.3 tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 0.8% to 348.0 tons [1] Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume decreased by 3.5%, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 1.9%, rebar's apparent demand decreased by 6.1%, and hot - rolled coil's apparent demand increased by 1.5% [1] Iron Ore Price and Spread - Warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types mostly decreased, and spot prices also showed a downward trend. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 9.1%, while the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 17.1% [4] Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 11.9% to 2507.8 tons, and the national monthly import volume increased by 8.0% to 10594.8 tons. The global shipment volume decreased by 4.3% to 3061.8 tons [4] Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6% to 240.7 tons, national monthly pig iron output decreased by 3.0%, and national monthly crude steel output decreased by 3.9% [4] Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 0.6% to 13740.97 tons, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.4% to 9012.1 tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged [4] Coking Coal and Coke Price and Spread - Coking coal and coke futures prices showed a strong upward trend. The fifth round of coke price increase was officially implemented, with an increase of 50/55 yuan/ton. Coking coal auction prices were stable with an upward bias [6] Supply - Coke production increased slightly, while the production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased. Coal mine开工 decreased month - on - month [6] Demand - The demand for coke and coking coal was mainly supported by the high - level but slightly declining blast furnace pig iron production [6] Inventory - Coke inventory in coking plants and steel mills decreased, while port inventory increased slightly. Coking coal inventory in coking plants and steel mills increased, and port inventory decreased [6]