Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Tin - The current supply of tin ore remains tight, and the processing fees of smelters continue at a low level. The improvement in tin ore supply is expected to be limited this year, with the supply side remaining strong. - In the demand side, tin solder enterprises in South China show certain resilience, while those in East China are more obviously suppressed. - Considering the strong fundamentals, after the market sentiment stabilizes, consider a low - buying strategy. Follow up on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [5]. Zinc - The fundamentals change little, with the Shanghai zinc market oscillating. The supply - loosening logic has basically materialized, and the supply - side pressure may be limited in the future. - The demand side shows no unexpected performance. The export of zinc ingots may boost domestic zinc prices. - The LME inventory starts to accumulate, and the risk of a squeeze on LME is alleviated. In the future, the fundamentals may provide limited elasticity for the continuous upward movement of Shanghai zinc, and it may oscillate in the short term [7]. Aluminum - The alumina market maintains a supply - demand surplus, with the price in a weak oscillation. Pay attention to the production - cut trends of high - cost enterprises. - The Shanghai aluminum market shows a pattern of strong macro - drive and weak fundamental support. The price will fluctuate between macro - positive factors and weak fundamentals in the short term [9]. Copper - The copper market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the price oscillates. The macro - situation is in a "vacuum period" in November, and the subsequent interest - rate cut expectation is unclear. - The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the downstream has a high psychological price limit for copper. The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom [10]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market adjusts following the aluminum price. The cost - side support is significant, and the supply is restricted by raw materials. - The demand from downstream die - casting enterprises is weak. In the short term, the ADC12 price will remain strong, and follow up on changes in raw material supply and demand [12]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market breaks downward, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. Funds are using nickel for short - hedging. - The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is high at low prices, but the overall fundamentals improve slightly, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is weak, with few inquiries and limited transactions. The macro - drive is insufficient, and the supply - side pressure remains, while the demand is weak. - In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate weakly, and follow up on steel - mill production cuts and nickel - iron prices [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market oscillates at a relatively high level. The weekly production shows a small increase, and the downstream demand is optimistic, with social inventory decreasing. - In the short term, the market will continue to fluctuate, and follow up on the resumption of production by large enterprises and changes in demand [18]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon is partially reduced, and the futures price oscillates. If the silicone industry reduces production, the inventory - accumulation pressure on industrial silicon will increase. - The market is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the price fluctuating between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [20]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon stabilizes, but the demand is weak, and the futures price oscillates downward. The market maintains a situation of both supply and demand decline, with inventory - accumulation expectations in each link. - The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, and pay attention to the support from the spot market and the digestion of warehouse receipts [21]. Summary by Directory Tin - **Price and Spread**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin both decreased by - 0.17%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 14.29%. The import loss decreased by 3.34%, and some monthly spreads changed significantly [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the import of tin ore decreased by - 15.13%. In October, the production of SMM refined tin increased by 53.09%, and the average operating rate increased by 53.23% [2]. - **Inventory**: The SHEF inventory weekly increased by 4.44%, and the social inventory increased by 5.83% [2]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by - 0.36%, and the import loss decreased. Some monthly spreads increased [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of refined zinc increased by 2.85%. In September, the import decreased by - 11.61%, and the export increased by 696.78%. The operating rates of some processing industries changed slightly [7]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions decreased by - 1.88%, and the LME inventory increased by 8.88% [7]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by - 0.79%, and the import loss decreased. Some monthly spreads changed [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of alumina increased by 2.39%, and the production of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.52%. The import and export of electrolytic aluminum also increased [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.03%, and the LME inventory decreased by - 0.39% [9]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by - 0.58%, and the refined - scrap spread decreased by - 16.58%. The import loss decreased [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of electrolytic copper decreased by - 2.62%, and in September, the import increased by 26.50%. The operating rates of copper rod production increased [10]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased by - 1.07%, and the LME inventory increased by 3.27% [10]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased by - 0.46%, and some refined - scrap spreads decreased [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by - 2.42%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.06%. The import of unforged aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the export decreased [12]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by - 0.18%, and the daily inventories in some regions changed slightly [12]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by - 1.47%, and the import loss decreased. The cost of some production methods of electrowon nickel changed [14]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The production of refined nickel in China increased by 0.84%, and the import increased by 124.36%. The SHFE inventory increased by 9.11%, and the social inventory increased by 8.10% [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.40%, and the price of some raw materials decreased slightly. Some monthly spreads changed [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China increased by 0.38%, and in Indonesia increased by 0.36%. The import of stainless steel increased, and the export decreased [15]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel increased by 1.73%, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by - 1.53% [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.45%, and the price of some lithium - related raw materials increased [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of lithium carbonate increased by 5.73%, and the demand increased by 8.70%. The import decreased by - 10.30%, and the export decreased by - 59.12% [18]. - **Inventory**: In October, the total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by - 10.90%, and the downstream inventory decreased by - 13.50% [18]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: The price of some industrial silicon products decreased slightly, and some monthly spreads changed [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: The national production of industrial silicon increased by 7.46%, and the production in some regions changed. The production of organic silicon DMC decreased slightly, and the production of polysilicon increased [20]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased by - 1.09%, and the warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by - 1.41% [20]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, and the futures price decreased by - 0.85%. Some monthly spreads increased [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly production of polysilicon decreased by - 0.74%, and the monthly production increased by 3.08%. The import increased, and the export and net - export decreased [21]. - **Inventory**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.09%, and the silicon - wafer inventory increased by 5.14% [21].

Group 1: Polyolefin Industry Core View PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand growth, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and inventory slightly accumulating under new - capacity pressure; PE shows increased supply and decreased demand. The market is in an oversupply situation, and it is recommended to gradually stop losses and reduce positions on previous short positions near the previous low, with limited expected rebound space [2]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 closing prices all declined, with L15 and PP15 spreads also decreasing. Spot prices of some products like East China PP filament and North China LDPE decreased, while North China LL basis and East China pp basis increased [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE downstream weighted开工率 decreased by 0.80%, PE enterprise inventory increased by 7.96%, and social inventory decreased by 1.86%. PP装置开工率 increased by 2.28%, and downstream weighted开工率 increased by 0.3% [2]. Group 2: Methanol Industry Core View The inland market has increasing output, and marginal devices are in loss. The port methanol market is under pressure due to high inventory and increased Iranian shipments. The market is trading on the "weak reality" logic, and the inventory contradiction of the 01 contract cannot be resolved before Iranian gas restrictions [4]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, MA2601 and MA2605 closing prices increased slightly, while MA15 spread decreased. Some regional spot prices changed slightly, and regional spreads also changed [4]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 4.44%, port inventory increased by 3.80%, and social inventory increased by 2.10%. Upstream domestic and overseas enterprise开工率 increased slightly, while downstream - outer - purchased MTO装置开工率 decreased by 2.38% [4]. Group 3: Ester Industry Chain Core View PX supply remains at a relatively high level, and demand support is weak. PTA supply - demand is expected to be loose in the future, and its rebound space is limited. Ethylene glycol will see inventory accumulation, and its price is under pressure. Short - fiber supply is high, and demand is weak. Bottle - chip supply - demand is in a loose pattern [7]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, prices of some upstream products like Brent crude oil increased, while prices of some downstream polyester products decreased. PX - related spreads and PTA - related spreads also changed [7]. - **Inventory and开工率**: MEG port inventory increased by 10.7%. Asian and Chinese PX开工率 decreased, PTA开工率 decreased slightly, and polyester综合开工率 decreased by 0.9% [7]. Group 4: Crude Oil Industry Core View The continuous attacks on Russian refineries and sanctions have increased concerns about crude oil supply, which has boosted oil prices in the short term. However, under the pressure of OPEC + continuous production increase and high US crude oil production, the crude oil supply - demand pattern is still weak, and the rebound space of oil prices is limited. Short - term Brent crude oil may fluctuate in the range of $60 - 66 per barrel [9]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased. Spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 also changed [9]. - **Product Price and Spread**: Prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, and their M1 - M3 spreads also increased [9]. - **Crack Spread**: Some crack spreads such as US gasoline and European gasoline changed, with US diesel and Singapore diesel crack spreads increasing significantly [9]. Group 5: Natural Rubber Industry Core View Supply - side factors support rubber prices, but overall demand is weak. The market is expected to enter range - bound consolidation, and attention should be paid to raw material output in the peak - production season of major producing areas and macro - level changes [10]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, the price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex increased slightly, and the full - latex basis increased. Some raw material prices changed slightly [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: September production in Thailand, Indonesia, etc. changed. Tire开工率 of semi - steel and full - steel decreased slightly, and October domestic tire production decreased [10]. - **Inventory Change**: Bonded - area inventory and natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory increased, while the出库 rate of dry rubber in Qingdao changed [10]. Group 6: Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Core View Pure benzene supply pressure is large, and its fundamentals are weak. Short - term BZ2603 may fluctuate or be short - biased at high levels. Styrene supply - demand has improved, and it may oscillate and repair in the short term, but its upward space is limited [11]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, prices of some upstream products like Brent crude oil changed, and prices of pure benzene and styrene - related products also changed. Spreads such as EB - BZ现货价差 increased [11]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased, and Asian and domestic pure benzene开工率 changed. Styrene开工率 increased, and downstream ABS开工率 increased slightly [11]. Group 7: LPG Industry Core View No clear overall view is mentioned in the text, mainly presenting price, inventory, and开工率 data [13]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, PG2512, PG2601, etc. prices decreased, and spreads such as PG12 - 01 decreased [13]. - **Inventory and开工率**: LPG refinery storage - capacity ratio decreased slightly, port inventory decreased by 5.66%, and port storage - capacity ratio decreased. Upstream - main refinery开工率 decreased slightly, and downstream - PDH开工率 decreased by 4.92% [13]. Group 8: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Core View Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, and it is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities after a rebound. Glass has short - term rigid - demand support, but in the medium - and long - term, demand will shrink, and prices will be under pressure [15]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, glass and soda ash futures prices decreased slightly, and their basis increased [15]. - **开工率 and Production**: Soda ash开工率 decreased by 1.72%, and weekly production decreased by 1.71%. Float - glass daily melting volume remained unchanged [15]. - **Inventory and Real - Estate Data**: Glass warehouse inventory increased, and some real - estate data such as new - construction area and sales area changed [15]. Group 9: PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Core View Caustic soda supply - demand has pressure, and its price is expected to oscillate weakly. PVC is in an oversupply situation, and its price is expected to continue the bottom - weakening pattern [16]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, prices of PVC and caustic soda - related products decreased slightly, and their basis and spreads changed [16]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Caustic soda and PVC inventory decreased slightly. Caustic soda and PVC开工率 decreased, and downstream开工率 of caustic soda and PVC also changed [16].

Report 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Core View The report provides the latest values, historical 1 - year and full - historical quantiles, and changes compared to the previous day of various stock index futures spreads and cross - variety ratios on November 19, 2025 [1]. Summary by Category - **IF Spreads**: The IF spot - futures spread is 3.46, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 25% and a full - historical quantile of 32.30%. Various IF inter - period spreads also have different values and quantiles [1]. - **IH Spreads**: The IH inter - period spreads show different levels of change and quantiles, such as the spread between the next - quarter and the current - quarter contracts being - 14.60, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 28.60% and a full - historical quantile of 29.30% [1]. - **IC Spreads**: The IC spot - futures spread is - 71.22, and its inter - period spreads also have specific values and quantiles. For example, the spread between the next - month and the current - month contracts is - 182.80, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 0.80% and a full - historical quantile of 2.50% [1]. - **IM Spreads**: The IM spot - futures spread is - 96.30, and its inter - period spreads vary. For instance, the spread between the next - quarter and the current - quarter contracts is - 92.80, with a historical 1 - year quantile of 20.00% and a full - historical quantile of 20.70% [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios like CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., are presented with their current values, changes, and quantiles. For example, the CSI 500/CSI 300 ratio is 2.3813, with a change of - 0.0208 and a historical 1 - year quantile of 84.00% [1]. Report 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Core View The report shows the latest values, changes compared to the previous day, and listing - since percentiles of various treasury bond futures spreads and cross - variety spreads on November 19, 2025 [2]. Summary by Category - **Basis**: The TS basis is - 0.0041, the TF basis is 1.8423, the T basis is 1.8110, and the TL basis is 1.4232, each with its own change and listing - since percentile [2]. - **Inter - Period Spreads**: For different contracts (TS, TF, T, TL), the inter - period spreads between the current - quarter, next - quarter, and far - quarter contracts are provided, along with their changes and listing - since percentiles. For example, the TS spread between the current - quarter and the next - quarter contracts is 0.0600, with a change of - 0.0040 and a listing - since percentile of 36.40% [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., are presented with their values, changes, and listing - since percentiles. For example, the TS - TF spread is - 3.4300, with a change of - 0.0050 and a listing - since percentile of 10.30% [2]. Report 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View The report presents the domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals on November 19, 2025 [4]. Summary by Category - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic AU2512 contract closed at 918.52 yuan/gram, down 1.18% from the previous day, and AG2512 contract closed at 11699 yuan/kilogram, down 1.96%. Foreign COMEX gold and silver futures also had different price changes [4]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold and silver spot prices increased on November 18, 2025, compared to the previous day [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is - 2.97, with a change of - 3.73 and a historical 1 - year quantile of 42.10%. Similar data is provided for silver [4]. - **Ratios**: The COMEX gold/silver ratio decreased by 0.42%, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold - silver ratio increased by 0.80% [4]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.2%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.6%, the 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield remained unchanged, the US dollar index increased by 0.06%, and the offshore RMB exchange rate increased by 0.04% [4]. - **Inventory and Positions**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold remained unchanged, while the silver inventory decreased by 1.00%. COMEX gold and silver inventories also decreased, and the positions of SPDR gold ETF and SLV silver ETF remained unchanged [4]. Report 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View The report provides the shipping indices, futures prices, basis, fundamental data of the container shipping industry on November 19, 2025 [6]. Summary by Category - **Shipping Indices**: SCFIS (European route) decreased by 9.78%, SCFIS (US West route) decreased by 6.87%, SCFI composite index decreased by 3.59%, SCFI (European) increased by 7.11%, SCFI (US West) decreased by 17.59%, and SCFI (US East) decreased by 8.71% [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The prices of various container shipping futures contracts (EC2602, EC2604, etc.) decreased, and the basis of the main contract increased by 11.5, with a change rate of - 7.04% [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged. In Shanghai, the port on - time rate increased by 14.75%, the port berthing situation increased by 4.82%, the monthly export amount decreased by 7.03%. Overseas economic indicators showed different changes, such as the euro - zone composite PMI increasing by 2.54%, the EU consumer confidence index increasing, the US manufacturing PMI decreasing by 0.81%, and the OECD composite leading indicator of the G7 group increasing by 0.06% [6].

生猪产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年11月19日 朱迪 Z0015979 | 期货指标 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 165 | 前值 -45 | 涨跌 210 | 张跃幅 466.67% | 单位 | | 主力合约基着 生猪2605 | 12040 | 12140 | -100 | -0.82% | | | | | | | | 元/吨 | | 生猪2601 | 11535 | 11695 | -160 | -1.37% | | | 生猪1-5价差 | -505 | -445 | -60 | -13.48% | | | 主力合约持仓 | 142417 | 137254 | 5163 | 3.76% | 글 | | 仓单 | 90 | 90 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跌 | 当地升贴水 | 单位 | | 河南 | 11700 | 11650 | 50.0 | 0 | | | 山东 | 11750 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides a daily tracking and analysis of the positions of stock index futures on November 18, 2025, including IF, IH, IC, and IM futures. It shows the changes in total positions, main - contract positions, and the position changes of the top twenty long and short seats for each type of futures [1][4][10][15][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog IF Futures - Total position increased significantly; both Citic and Guotai Junan increased their positions substantially. On November 18, the total position of the IF variety increased by 5,967 lots, and the position of the main contract 2512 increased by 4,718 lots [1][4]. - Among the top twenty long seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 42,157 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 1,949 lots, while Yong'an Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 453 lots [5]. - Among the top twenty short seats, Citic Futures ranked first with a total position of 45,644 lots. Citic Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 2,688 lots, and GF Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 550 lots [7]. IH Futures - Total position decreased slightly; Haitong reduced both long and short positions by nearly 1,000 lots. On November 18, the total position of the IH variety decreased by 3,423 lots, and the position of the main contract 2512 decreased by 1,142 lots [1][10]. - Among the top twenty long seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 12,878 lots. Hongyuan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 135 lots, while Haitong Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 991 lots [10]. - Among the top twenty short seats, Citic Futures ranked first with a total position of 13,732 lots. China Merchants Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 203 lots, and Haitong Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 982 lots [11]. IC Futures - Total position increased significantly; Guotai Junan increased long positions by over 3,000 lots. On November 18, the total position of the IC variety increased by 8,185 lots, and the position of the main contract 2512 increased by 6,266 lots [1][15]. - Among the top twenty long seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 38,479 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 3,002 lots, while Yong'an Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 335 lots [16]. - Among the top twenty short seats, Citic Futures ranked first with a total position of 41,909 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 1,909 lots, and Bank of China Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 748 lots [18]. IM Futures - Total position increased significantly; Guotai Junan increased both long and short positions by over 2,000 lots. On November 18, the total position of the IM variety increased by 6,867 lots, and the position of the main contract 2512 increased by 3,601 lots [1][21]. - Among the top twenty long seats, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 52,569 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in long positions, adding 2,014 lots, while Dongzheng Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 374 lots [21]. - Among the top twenty short seats, Citic Futures ranked first with a total position of 73,576 lots. Guotai Junan Futures had the largest increase in short positions, adding 2,058 lots, and Everbright Futures had the largest decrease, reducing 392 lots [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a significant correction on Tuesday, with the TMT sector rising against the trend and the pro-cyclical sectors experiencing a collective decline. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the basis of the main contracts fluctuated narrowly. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach [2][3]. - The bond market showed a narrow - range oscillation. The central bank's net investment may increase, but if the net investment is less than expected, the tightness of the capital market may continue this week. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations for long - term bonds [5][7]. - The precious metals market showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. In the medium and long term, it is expected to drive the precious metals market to reproduce a bull market similar to that in the 1970s. It is recommended to buy on dips and sell out - of - the - money put options [9]. - The shipping index (European line) showed a downward trend in shock. It is expected to continue the shock pattern in the short term and rise in shock in the short term [11][12]. - The copper market showed a shock operation. The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the gradual upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices. It is recommended to focus on the marginal changes in the demand side and overseas interest - rate cut expectations [12][16]. - The alumina market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to focus on whether the production reduction of high - cost enterprises can reverse the supply - demand pattern [17][19]. - The aluminum market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to focus on the changes in downstream start - up, inventory depletion rhythm, and overseas policies [21][22]. - The aluminum alloy market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to focus on the improvement of scrap aluminum supply, changes in downstream procurement rhythm, and inventory depletion process [22][24]. - The zinc market showed a shock adjustment. It is recommended to focus on whether there is an improvement in demand and interest - rate cut expectations [24][27]. - The tin market showed a high - level shock. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy on dips [27][31]. - The nickel market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to focus on macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [31][33]. - The stainless - steel market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to focus on the production reduction of steel mills and the price of nickel iron [34][37]. - The lithium carbonate market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see [38][41]. - The polysilicon market showed a high - level shock. It is recommended to focus on the support of spot prices and the digestion of warehouse receipts [42][43]. - The industrial silicon market showed a small - range shock. It is recommended to focus on the implementation of organic silicon production reduction [44][45]. - The steel market showed a weak trend. It is recommended to try short positions. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar will continue to converge [46][48]. - The iron ore market showed a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see [49][50]. - The coking coal market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to wait and see [51][53]. - The coke market showed a weak shock. It is recommended to wait and see [55][56]. - The meal market showed a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see [57][60]. - The pig market showed a sign of stabilization. It is recommended to wait and see [61]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: The A - share market showed a significant correction on Tuesday. The four major stock index futures contracts all declined, and the basis of the main contracts fluctuated narrowly. The TMT sector rose against the trend, and the pro - cyclical sectors declined significantly [2][3]. - News: Domestically, China protested against Japan's wrong remarks on Taiwan. Overseas, the Bank of Japan discussed economic and monetary policies with the prime minister [3]. - Capital: The trading volume of the A - share market was stable, and the central bank had a net investment of 37 billion yuan [3]. - Operation suggestion: Wait for the market to stabilize and mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach. If there is a deep decline, consider a bull spread of put options [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: The main contracts of treasury futures all rose, and the yield of major interest - bearing bonds changed little [5]. - Capital: The central bank had a net investment of 37 billion yuan, and the inter - bank market liquidity was tight [5]. - Operation suggestion: Conduct range - bound operations in the short term [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: The US labor market remained resilient, and the US Treasury announced relevant data. The US stock market fell, and precious metals bottomed out and rebounded [8][9]. - Outlook: In the medium and long term, it is expected to drive the precious metals market to reproduce a bull market similar to that in the 1970s. It is recommended to buy on dips and sell out - of - the - money put options [9]. - Capital: The outflow trend of gold and silver ETFs may gradually weaken [10]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Line) - Shipping index: As of November 17, the SCFIS European line index and the US - West route index both declined [11]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US was different [12]. - Logic: The futures market showed a downward trend in shock. It is expected to continue the shock pattern in the short term [12]. - Operation suggestion: Rise in shock in the short term [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: The price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the market trading atmosphere was average [12]. - Macro: The US government shutdown affected the market liquidity and the Fed's interest - rate cut decision [13]. - Supply: The copper concentrate TC was at a low level, and the production of electrolytic copper decreased in October [14]. - Demand: The operating rate of copper rod processing increased, and the downstream demand was resilient [15]. - Inventory: The LME and COMEX copper inventories increased, while the domestic social inventory decreased [15]. - Logic: The macro situation and fundamentals support the copper price. It is recommended to focus on the marginal changes in demand and overseas interest - rate cut expectations [16][17]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 85,000 - 87,000 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina - Spot: The price of alumina decreased, and the supply pattern was gradually relaxed [17]. - Supply: The production of alumina increased in October, and it is expected to continue to be in a surplus situation in November [18]. - Inventory: The inventory of alumina increased [18]. - Logic: The market is in a state of supply - demand relaxation, and the price is expected to continue to be weak and volatile [19]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [19]. Aluminum - Spot: The price of aluminum decreased, and the market trading was inactive [19]. - Supply: The production of electrolytic aluminum increased in October, and it is expected to decrease slightly in November [20]. - Demand: The operating rate of aluminum products decreased, and the demand was under pressure [22]. - Inventory: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was difficult to deplete [22]. - Logic: The aluminum price will fluctuate between macro - positive factors and weak fundamentals. It is recommended to focus on downstream start - up, inventory depletion, and overseas policies [21][22]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 21,200 - 21,800 yuan/ton [22]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: The price of aluminum alloy decreased [22]. - Supply: The production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased in October, and it is expected to continue to decline in November [23]. - Demand: The demand for aluminum alloy was weak, and the inventory digestion was slow [23]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy decreased slightly [23]. - Logic: The price of ADC12 will remain strong in the short term. It is recommended to focus on scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement, and inventory depletion [24]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton [24]. Zinc - Spot: The price of zinc decreased, and the downstream demand was weak [24]. - Supply: The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and the supply pressure of refined zinc was relieved [25]. - Demand: The operating rate of primary processing industries was basically stable, and the demand was not strong [26]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory decreased, and the LME inventory increased [26]. - Logic: The supply - demand situation is stable, and the zinc price will fluctuate. It is recommended to focus on demand improvement and interest - rate cut expectations [27]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [27]. Tin - Spot: The price of tin decreased slightly, and the market trading was average [27]. - Supply: The import of tin ore and tin ingots decreased in September, and the supply was still tight [28]. - Demand and inventory: The operating rate of solder decreased in October, and the inventory increased slightly [29]. - Logic: The supply is tight, and the demand in South China is resilient. It is recommended to buy on dips [31]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a low - buying strategy on dips [31]. Nickel - Spot: The price of nickel decreased significantly [31]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel decreased in October, but it was still at a high level [31]. - Demand: The demand for nickel in electroplating and alloys was stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate was weak [32]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory was high, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly [32]. - Logic: The market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price was under pressure. It is recommended to focus on macro - expectations and Indonesian policies [33]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton [33]. Stainless Steel - Spot: The price of stainless steel was stable, and the market trading was inactive [34]. - Raw materials: The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron decreased [34]. - Supply: The production of stainless steel decreased in November, and the supply pressure was still there [35][36]. - Inventory: The social inventory increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased [36]. - Logic: The policy and macro - driving forces were insufficient, and the price was expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to focus on steel mill production reduction and nickel iron price [37]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 12,300 - 12,600 yuan/ton [38]. Carbonate Lithium - Spot: The price of lithium carbonate increased, and the market trading was light [38]. - Supply: The production of lithium carbonate increased in October, and it is expected to continue to increase [39]. - Demand: The demand for lithium carbonate was optimistic, and the inventory decreased [39][40]. - Logic: The price fluctuated in a high - level range. It is recommended to focus on the resumption of production of large enterprises and the marginal changes in demand [41]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [42]. Polysilicon - Spot price: The price of polysilicon was stable [42]. - Supply: The production of polysilicon is expected to decrease in November and increase slightly in December [42]. - Demand: The downstream demand is expected to decline, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [43]. - Inventory: The inventory of polysilicon increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased [43]. - Logic: The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. It is recommended to focus on the support of spot prices and the digestion of warehouse receipts [43]. - Operation suggestion: The price is expected to be in a high - level shock [44]. Industrial Silicon - Spot price: The price of industrial silicon was stable [44]. - Supply: The production of industrial silicon is expected to decrease in November [44]. - Demand: The demand for industrial silicon is expected to decline, and the inventory decreased [44][45]. - Logic: The price is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range. It is recommended to focus on the implementation of organic silicon production reduction [45]. - Operation suggestion: The price is expected to operate between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [45]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The spot price was stable, and the basis weakened [46]. - Cost and profit: The cost of iron elements had weak support, and the cost of carbon elements had support. The profit of cold - rolled coils was the highest [46]. - Supply: The production of iron elements increased, and the production of five major steel products decreased [46]. - Demand: The domestic demand was weak, and the export was at a high level. The apparent demand decreased [47]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils needed to be further reduced [48]. - View: The price of steel was stable, and the price of coking coal decreased. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar will continue to converge. It is not recommended to go long [48]. Iron Ore - Spot: The price of mainstream iron ore powder increased slightly [49]. - Futures: The price of iron ore futures increased, and the 1 - 5 spread strengthened [49]. - Basis: The optimal delivery product was Carajás fines, and the basis of different varieties was different [49]. - Demand: The daily output of hot metal increased, and the demand for iron ore was high [49]. - Supply: The global shipment of iron ore increased, and the arrival at ports decreased [50]. - Inventory: The port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill inventory increased [50]. - View: The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [50]. Coking Coal - Futures and spot: The price of coking coal futures decreased significantly, and the spot price also showed a downward trend [51]. - Supply: The production of coking coal increased slightly, and the import of Mongolian coal increased [51][53]. - Demand: The demand for coking coal decreased, and the steel mill's replenishment demand was weak [52][53]. - Inventory: The overall inventory increased slightly [52]. - View: The price of coking coal is expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [53][54]. Coke - Futures and spot: The price of coke futures decreased, and the spot price was expected to be stable in the short term [55][56]. - Profit: The average profit of coking plants was negative [55]. - Supply: The production of coke decreased slightly [55]. - Demand: The demand for coke was affected by the increase in hot - metal output and the decrease in steel mill profit [56]. - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased slightly [56]. - View: The price of coke is expected to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The price of soybean meal was stable, and the trading volume decreased. The price of rapeseed meal was up and down, and there was no transaction [57][58]. - Fundamentals: The US soybean crushing volume in October exceeded expectations, and the export inspection volume was at the lower end of the expected range. China purchased US soybeans [58][59]. - Outlook: The US soybean demand improved, but the export demand was still weak. The domestic soybean meal supply was loose. It is expected to fluctuate widely [59][60]. Pig - Spot situation: The spot price of pigs oscillated, and there were signs of stabilization [61].

钢材产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年11月18日 周敏波 Z0010559 | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 某美 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3220 | 3190 | 30 | 123 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3240 | 3210 | 30 | 143 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3320 | 3270 | 50 | 223 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3147 | 3105 | 42 | 73 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3192 | 3144 | 48 | 28 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3097 | 3053 | 44 | 123 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3310 | 3260 | 50 | 8 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3210 | 3190 | 20 | -92 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | 3320 | 3270 | 50 | -3 | | | ...

1. Report Summary 1.1 Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **IF Spread Data**: The latest IF spot - futures spread is - 16.65, up 11.09 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical percentile of 47.90% and an all - time percentile of 27.20%. Different IF inter - period spreads also show various values and changes [1]. - **IH Spread Data**: The IH spot - futures spread is - 2.87, up 5.15 from the previous day, with different historical percentiles. IH inter - period spreads have their own values and changes as well [1]. - **IC Spread Data**: The IC spot - futures spread is - 91.05, up 6.11 from the previous day. IC inter - period spreads show significant differences in values and changes, with many at very low percentiles [1]. - **IM Spread Data**: The IM spot - futures spread is - 128.68, up 2.08 from the previous day. IM inter - period spreads also have distinct values and changes [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., show different values, changes, and historical percentiles [1]. 1.2 Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Basis Data**: The basis of TS, TF, T, and TL shows different values and changes on November 17, 2025, with corresponding historical percentiles [3]. - **Inter - period Spread Data**: Inter - period spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL, including spreads between different contract months like current - quarter to next - quarter, etc., have their own values, changes, and historical percentiles [3]. - **Cross - variety Spread Data**: Cross - variety spreads such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., show different values and changes on November 17, 2025, with corresponding historical percentiles [3]. 1.3 Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic and foreign precious metals futures closing prices, including AU2512, AG2512, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver, show declines on November 17 compared to previous dates, with corresponding percentage changes [5]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of London gold, London silver, and domestic TD products also show declines, with corresponding percentage changes [5]. - **Basis and Ratios**: The basis of different precious metals combinations shows different values, changes, and historical percentiles. Ratios such as COMEX gold/silver and SHFE gold/silver also have their own values and changes [5]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, Inventory, and Positions**: Interest rates of US Treasury bonds, exchange rates, inventory of precious metals in different exchanges, and positions of ETFs show various changes [5]. 1.4 Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Shipping Indexes**: SCFIS for European and US - West routes shows declines from November 10 to November 17, while SCFI shows mixed changes in different routes from November 7 to November 14 [7]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of different contracts have different changes, and the basis of the main contract shows a change of - 11.0 with a 9.61% change [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply remains unchanged. Port - related indicators in Shanghai, export amounts, overseas economic indicators such as PMI and consumer confidence index, and OECD leading indicators show various changes [7]. 2. Core Views The report comprehensively presents the spread, price, and fundamental data of stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, and the container shipping industry. These data can help investors understand the current market situation of different asset classes, including price trends, relative value relationships, and market supply - demand fundamentals, so as to make investment decisions [1][3][5][7]. 3. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Fats and Oils - Palm oil is expected to maintain a low - level volatile or weakly rebound trend, with Dalian palm oil futures fluctuating between 8600 - 8700 yuan. There is pressure to weaken again. Port inventory may rise due to reduced demand in cold weather [1]. - For soybean oil, the 2025/26 US soybean oil supply is up, but the ending stocks are down. CBOT soybean oil is supported. In China, the spot price is slightly up, and the inventory is stable [1]. 2.2 Live Pigs - The spot price is weak, and the market is in a weak - range oscillation. The mid - term outlook is not optimistic. The 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be held [3]. 2.3 Meal Products - The USDA report lacks positive factors for US soybeans. China's soybean meal supply is loose, and the price will maintain a wide - range oscillation [8]. 2.4 Corn and Corn Starch - Corn has a short - term supply - demand imbalance, and the price rebounds, but the upside is limited due to supply pressure. Attention should be paid to selling and purchasing rhythms and storage [10]. 2.5 Sugar - India's sugar export may face difficulties in the short term. Brazil's supply is loose. The raw sugar price will oscillate around 14 cents/pound. The sugar market will maintain an oscillation this week [14]. 2.6 Cotton - The 11 - month USDA report is bearish for cotton. In China, new cotton supply is high, and demand is weak, but some downstream support exists. The short - term cotton price will be under pressure [15]. 2.7 Eggs - The egg market supply is loose, and demand is weak in the short term. The price decline has not widened, and the market will be weakly oscillating. Near - month short positions can be closed gradually [17][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fats and Oils - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8590 yuan, unchanged from November 14. The basis is 308 yuan, down 7.78%. The 2025/26 US soybean oil supply is up to 322.76 billion pounds [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong is 8590 yuan, up 20 yuan. The basis is - 54 yuan, down 103.70%. The inventory may rise [1]. 3.2 Live Pigs - **Futures**: The main contract basis is - 45 yuan, down 120%. The price of live pigs 2605 is 12140 yuan, down 0.45% [3]. - **Spot**: The price in Henan is 11650 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan. The slaughter volume is up 0.05% [3]. 3.3 Meal Products - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 3060 yuan, down 0.65%. The basis is - 3 yuan, up 90.63% [8]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2420 yuan, down 3.2%. The basis is - 29 yuan, down 390% [8]. 3.4 Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 in Jinzhou Port is 2182 yuan, down 0.14%. The basis is 48 yuan, up 92% [10]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 is 2489 yuan, down 0.64%. The basis is 21 yuan, up 320% [10]. 3.5 Sugar - **Futures**: The price of sugar 2601 is 5458 yuan, down 0.22%. The 1 - 5 spread is 60 yuan, down 9.09% [14]. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning is 5600 yuan, down 1.06%. The national sugar production is up 12.03% [14]. 3.6 Cotton - **Futures**: The price of cotton 2605 is 13455 yuan, down 0.11%. The 5 - 1 spread is 10 yuan, down 50% [15]. - **Spot**: The price of Xinjiang 3128B is 14579 yuan, down 0.1%. The commercial inventory is up 70.4% [15]. 3.7 Eggs - **Futures**: The price of egg 12 contract is 2987 yuan/500KG, down 1.52%. The 12 - 01 spread is - 242 yuan, down 19.8% [17]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the producing area is 2.96 yuan/jin, down 0.82%. The laying hen inventory is high [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views of the Report Tin - The current supply of tin ore remains tight, and smelter processing fees continue at a low level. It is expected that the improvement in tin ore supply this year will be limited, and the supply side will remain strong. In the demand aspect, the tin solder enterprises in South China show certain resilience, while those in East China are more obviously suppressed. Considering the strong fundamentals, after the market sentiment stabilizes, consider a low - long strategy. Follow up on macro - end changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [2]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon has stabilized and increased, and the futures price has fluctuated. There is a possibility of an arbitrage window. The market in November shows a double - decline in supply and demand, with a larger decline in supply, but there is still a risk of inventory accumulation. In December, if the organic silicon enterprises cut production, the inventory accumulation pressure will increase. It is expected that the price will mainly fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [5]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon has stabilized, and the demand is weak. The futures price has dropped significantly, and the arbitrage window has closed. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in a high - level range. Pay attention to the spot support strength, the digestion of warehouse receipts after the centralized cancellation of November contracts, and whether there is an increase in orders on the demand side [6]. Copper - The market is waiting and seeing, and copper prices fluctuated weakly yesterday. In the macro aspect, there may be a "vacuum period" in November, and the subsequent focus is on the US government shutdown and interest - rate cut expectations. In the fundamental aspect, the supply of copper ore remains tight, and the psychological price ceiling of downstream customers for copper prices has gradually increased. The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices, with the main reference range of 85000 - 87500 [7]. Zinc - The logic of loose supply has basically materialized, and the subsequent supply - side pressure may be limited. The demand side has not shown unexpected performance, and domestic zinc ingots remain at a discount. With the increase in the LME warehousing expectation, the LME inventory has started to accumulate, and the risk of a short squeeze has eased. The export of zinc ingots may boost domestic zinc prices. In the short term, it is expected to remain volatile, with the main reference range of 22000 - 22800 [10]. Alumina - The current alumina market maintains a pattern of loose supply and demand, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton. Pay attention to whether the production cuts of high - cost enterprises can reverse the supply - demand pattern [12]. Aluminum - The aluminum price will be in a game between macro - level positives and weak fundamentals in the short term. Although the market performance is strong, be vigilant against the risk of a high - level correction above 22000 yuan/ton. Focus on downstream start - up changes, inventory depletion rhythms, and overseas policy trends [12]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of cast aluminum alloy will remain strong in the short term, with a firm cost support. The supply of scrap aluminum is expected to remain tight in the short term, and the main contract reference range is 20600 - 21200 yuan/ton. Follow up on the improvement of scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement rhythms, and inventory depletion processes [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a weak oscillation, with insufficient macro - level driving forces and no obvious improvement in the fundamental structure. The supply - side pressure from steel - mill production schedules and social inventories remains, and demand stimulation is insufficient. The short - term market is expected to continue to adjust in a weak oscillation, with the main operating range of 12300 - 12700. Pay attention to steel - mill production cuts and nickel - iron prices [15]. Nickel - The macro - level sentiment has improved, but the fundamental improvement is limited. The medium - term supply of nickel remains loose, restricting the upward price space. The short - term drive is weak. The market is expected to be in a weak oscillation, with the main reference range of 116000 - 122000. Follow up on macro - level expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate market was strong, with multiple contracts hitting the daily limit. The fundamentals provide support, and the news has stimulated bullish sentiment. The downstream demand is currently optimistic, and social inventory is being depleted. The short - term market may see intensified competition. Be cautious about chasing long positions at the current price, and wait for a pull - back before further observation [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.75% to 289900 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spread decreased by 671.90% to - 87.50 dollars/ton. The import loss decreased by 1.62% to - 15173.89 yuan/ton [2]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In September, tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8714 tons; in October, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% to 16090 tons; in September, the average SMM refined tin operating rate decreased by 31.77% to 43.60% [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: The SHEF inventory increased by 4.44% to 6258 tons, and the social inventory increased by 5.83% to 7443 tons [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Main - Contract Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9500 yuan/ton, and the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9750 yuan/ton [5]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In the month, the national industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% to 45.22 million tons, and the Xinjiang industrial silicon production increased by 15.94% to 23.56 million tons [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 0.89% to 11.31 million tons, and the social inventory decreased by 1.09% to 54.60 million tons [5]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52300 yuan/ton, and the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 50500 yuan/ton [6]. - **Weekly and Monthly Fundamental Data**: The weekly silicon wafer production decreased by 2.45% to 13.12 GW, and the monthly polysilicon production increased by 3.08% to 13.40 million tons [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.09% to 26.70 million tons, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 5.14% to 18.42 GW [6]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 0.67% to 86510 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 105 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62% to 109.16 million tons; in September, electrolytic copper imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: The domestic social inventory decreased by 1.07% to 19.38 million tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 4.89% to 10.94 million tons [7]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.40% to 22400 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased to - 4292 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, refined zinc production increased by 2.85% to 61.72 million tons; in September, refined zinc imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [10]. - **Inventory Changes**: The seven - region social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots decreased by 1.88% to 15.66 million tons, and the LME inventory increased by 2.57% to 4.0 million tons [10]. Alumina - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 1.28% to 21630 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 1982 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, alumina production increased by 2.39% to 778.53 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52% to 374.21 million tons [12]. - **Inventory Changes**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.03% to 62.70 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.39% to 55.0 million tons [12]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased by 0.46% to 21550 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 3.57% to 1754 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42% to 64.50 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.06% to 28.60 million tons [13]. - **Inventory Changes**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.18% to 5.57 million tons, and the daily inventory of recycled aluminum alloy in Foshan increased by 2.55% to 36817 tons [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12700 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.40% to 12600 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and the stainless - steel net export volume decreased by 9.83% to 29.82 million tons [15]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 1.73% to 49.74 million tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1.53% to 6.93 million tons [15]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.75% to 118700 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 2.39% to - 194 dollars/ton [18]. - **Cost of Electrowinning Nickel**: The cost of integrated MHP - produced electrowinning nickel decreased by 4.84% to 110810 yuan/ton, and the cost of integrated high - matte nickel - produced electrowinning nickel increased by 3.75% to 129484 yuan/ton [18]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: In China, refined nickel production increased by 0.84% to 35900 tons, and refined nickel imports increased by 124.36% to 38164 tons. The SHFE inventory increased by 9.11% to 40573 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 2.22% to 257694 tons [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.17% to 86150 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.21% to 83800 yuan/ton [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, lithium carbonate production increased by 5.73% to 92260 tons, and lithium carbonate demand increased by 8.70% to 126961 tons [20]. - **Inventory Changes**: In October, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 10.90% to 84234 tons, and the downstream lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 13.50% to 53291 tons [20].