1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand growth, with reduced maintenance leading to increased supply and a slight accumulation of inventory under the pressure of new production capacity. PE shows increased supply and decreased demand. Although unplanned maintenance eases some supply pressure, imported goods are abundant, and demand is generally weak except for agricultural films. The inventory of hedging merchants is gradually decreasing, the basis is strengthening, and inventory is being cleared. When the price is below 6800, the downstream's willingness to buy increases. The cost side is affected by the shock of crude oil and the strength of coal, and the PDH profit has continued to weaken this week. [2] Methanol - In the domestic market, Baofeng continues to purchase externally, and Jiutai has an unexpected maintenance. The domestic production will continue to increase. Currently, the marginal devices in the domestic market have suffered losses. In the port market, the gas restriction in Iran has been postponed, and the shipment has accelerated. As of November 19, Iran has shipped 885,000 tons, putting significant pressure on the port methanol market. With high inventory and the profit of imported methanol from Iran, the willingness to hold goods has weakened, and the price has declined while the basis remains stable. The demand side is based on rigid procurement. The market is currently trading on the logic of "weak reality", and the core contradiction lies in the high inventory in the port. The inventory contradiction of the 01 contract cannot be resolved, and the weak reality will continue to be traded before the gas restriction in Iran. [4] Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The market has returned to a weak state, and the overall pattern of oversupply is still prominent. Fundamentally, the weekly production remains at a high level of around 750,000 tons, and the oversupply is obvious compared with the current rigid demand. The inventory of manufacturers has been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory has continued to rise. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream production capacity, so the overall demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid demand pattern. If there is no actual production capacity exit or load reduction in the future, the supply - demand situation will be further pressured. - Glass: The spot sales have strengthened, and the high sales rate in some regions has continued to be above 100%. Consecutive price cuts have driven the middle and lower reaches to purchase. Although 4 production lines in the Shahe area were cold - repaired last week, there will be production lines restarting and igniting in the future, which will put pressure on the supply side. The latest deep - processing order days have improved slightly, and there is still some rigid demand support in the short term as November is the peak season for year - end rush work. However, in the medium and long term, at the end of the peak season, the market is worried about the sustainability of future demand. As the temperature in the north drops, outdoor construction will gradually stop, and the demand side will shrink after December, putting pressure on the glass price. The real estate is still in the bottom cycle, and the completion volume has decreased significantly. Therefore, in the oversupply pattern, the glass industry still needs to clear production capacity to solve the oversupply dilemma. [7] PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: The supply - demand situation of the caustic soda industry still faces certain pressure. The purchasing enthusiasm of the main downstream alumina has decreased, so the support from the main demand side of caustic soda is weak, which suppresses the caustic soda price upwards. During the northern environmental protection control period, some alumina plants may have production reduction expectations. There is an overhaul expectation in the East China region, and the supply will decrease slightly. The price in this region may be relatively stable due to certain rigid demand support, but in the long term, the supply - demand still has pressure. The non - aluminum market is still sluggish, and overall, the supply - demand pressure is still relatively large. It is expected that the caustic soda price will fluctuate weakly. - PVC: The PVC spot market continues to fluctuate weakly. This week, maintenance and partial device load reduction have led to a decrease in production on a month - on - month basis, but it is still at a high level. Affected by local logistics, the market arrivals have decreased, and the social inventory has decreased on a month - on - month basis. Next week, the supply - side operating rate will increase. The demand side is in the traditional off - season from November to January of the next year. As the outdoor construction in the north gradually decreases in winter, the overall real estate demand reduction still has a negative impact. In terms of exports, India has officially cancelled the BIS certification for imported PVC issued in 2024, which is beneficial for domestic PVC to enter the Indian market. However, there is an expectation of anti - dumping duties, and the Asian contract price for December is still to be observed next week. It is expected that the external demand will be difficult to increase. The overall demand side has limited support for PVC. The supply - demand is still in an oversupply pattern, and it is difficult for the price to form an upward drive. It is expected to continue the weak pattern at the bottom. [8] Natural Rubber - The supply side: Yunnan has encountered cold weather, which has accelerated the end of the tapping season in Yunnan. The rainy season in southern Thailand continues, and the price of overseas raw materials is high, which strongly supports the rubber price. The demand side: Currently, the overall demand is weak. Channels are cautious in purchasing and mainly focus on digesting inventory. Next week, the purchasing enthusiasm of some agents on an as - needed basis may increase slightly, which will drive the overall sales volume. However, the overall demand is weakening, and the actual increase in purchasing volume is limited. The market still mainly focuses on digesting inventory. In conclusion, the natural rubber inventory has entered the seasonal inventory accumulation period, and the terminal demand support is insufficient. There is an expectation that the operating rate of downstream enterprises will further decline. It is expected that the natural rubber market will enter a range - bound consolidation. In the future, attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and macro - level changes. If the raw material supply is smooth, the rubber price is expected to decline. If the raw material supply is not smooth, the rubber price is expected to operate in the range of 15,000 - 15,500. [9] Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: Recently, many sets of pure benzene devices have overhaul expectations, but the import expectation remains high, and the overall supply may still be relatively loose. On the demand side, the load of downstream styrene has increased due to the restart of some devices, but some loss - making varieties have reduced production to maintain prices, and the domestic demand side has limited support. The port inventory has increased, and there are still many arrivals in the future, so the supply pressure of pure benzene is relatively large. After the overhaul of the disproportionation device in the US Gulf ends, the support from blending oil may weaken, but South Korea's aromatics have an export expectation to the US, and the US dollar price of pure benzene has increased. Overall, the supply - demand expectation of pure benzene is still relatively loose, and the limited support from the cost side may limit the upward space. It may fluctuate and consolidate. However, since the current valuation of pure benzene is low, future attention should be paid to device changes. In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see for BZ2603. - Styrene: After the overhaul of the disproportionation device in the US Gulf ends, the blending oil demand may weaken. However, in November, the supply - demand situation of styrene has further improved. With the South Korean mixed aromatics trading, styrene has an export transaction expectation, and the port inventory has decreased. There are positive factors supporting styrene, and it will mainly fluctuate and repair in the short term. However, as the profit of styrene is repaired, the overhaul of some factories may be delayed. Coupled with the trial operation of new devices and the expected weakening of downstream EPS demand, it is expected that the upward space of styrene will be limited. In the short term, the price of EB01 may mainly fluctuate and consolidate. [10] Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Recently, the operating loads of Asian and domestic PX have decreased. However, the supply of Asian MX is abundant, and some factories rely on MX to supplement PX production, so the PX supply still remains at a relatively high level. On the demand side, the PTA price still has certain support this week. However, the spot floating price and monthly spread of PX are still weak, and the overall support from oil prices is limited. It is expected that the rebound space of PX is limited. Strategically, PX should be regarded as a short - term high - level shock. - PTA: As two PTA devices in East China are gradually under maintenance, the basis has slightly strengthened. According to the balance sheet, the supply - demand of PTA is in a tight balance in November, but the supply - demand of PTA is expected to be relatively loose from December to the first quarter of next year, and the upward drive of the basis is limited. In terms of absolute price, recently, the absolute price of PTA is relatively strong due to the support of blending oil demand and India's cancellation of BIS certification. However, the overall support from oil prices is limited, and the rebound space of PTA is still limited. Strategically, TA should be regarded as a short - term high - level shock, and TA1 - 5 should be treated as a rolling reverse spread. - Ethylene glycol: The operating load of ethylene glycol is at a high level. The arrival of overseas ethylene glycol shipments is relatively concentrated in November, and the port inventory will continue to increase recently, and the basis will weaken. In addition, the inventory accumulation amplitude of ethylene glycol from November to December is expected to be relatively high, and the upward pressure on ethylene glycol is significant. Strategically, the seller of the out - of - the - money call option with an exercise price of no less than 4100 for EG2601 should hold, and EG1 - 5 should be reversely spread at high levels. - Short - fiber: Although the spot processing margin of short - fiber has been significantly compressed recently, there is still profit at present, and the inventory pressure of short - fiber factories is not large, so the short - fiber supply remains at a high level. On the demand side, the terminal demand has seasonally weakened in November. In addition, the cancellation of India's BIS certification has certain benefits for PTA and filament, but has relatively little impact on short - fiber. Therefore, under the short - term weak supply - demand expectation and cost - side support, it is expected that the absolute price of short - fiber will be under pressure, and the processing margin still has room for compression. Strategically, the unilateral strategy is the same as that of PTA; the processing margin on the disk should be shorted at high levels. - Bottle - grade polyester: In mid - November, the Huarun device has both maintenance and restart. In addition, according to Longzhong Information, the commissioning of the new device of Dongying Fuhai has been postponed, and the domestic supply has not changed much. Considering that November is in the off - season of demand and the window period between the Spring Festival stocking, the demand side has insufficient support for bottle - grade polyester. The supply - demand of bottle - grade polyester remains in a loose pattern. Therefore, the social inventory of bottle - grade polyester will probably enter the seasonal inventory accumulation channel, and PR will mainly fluctuate with the cost side. The processing margin of PR is limitedly boosted by supply - demand and will change dynamically with the raw material cost. Strategically, the unilateral strategy of PR is the same as that of PTA; the processing margin of the main contract of PR is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton. [12] Crude Oil - Overnight, affected by the news that Russia and Ukraine may restart peace talks, the geopolitical premium has declined, and the oil price has declined under pressure. However, EIA data shows that the US crude oil inventory has decreased more than expected, and the decline of the oil price has been slightly narrowed. Recently, attacks or sanctions caused by the Russia - Ukraine issue have had a short - term impact on the oil price. However, under the pressure of continuous production increase by OPEC+ and the record - high US crude oil production, the supply - demand pattern of crude oil is still weak, and the upward pressure on the oil price is significant. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support of Brent crude oil at $60 per barrel and the geopolitical dynamics between Russia and Ukraine. [14] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 have all increased, and the L15 and PP15 spreads have also increased. The spot prices of East China PP raffia and North China LLDPE have increased, while the North China LL basis has decreased significantly, and the East China pp basis has remained unchanged. The prices of some PE and PP non - standard products have remained unchanged, while the prices of some have decreased. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory and social inventory have decreased, while PP enterprise inventory has increased, and PP trader inventory has decreased. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of PE devices has increased slightly, while the weighted operating rate of PE downstream has decreased slightly. The operating rate of PP devices and powder devices has increased, and the weighted operating rate of PP downstream has increased slightly. [2] Methanol - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of MA2601 and MA2605 have decreased, and the MA15 spread has increased. The basis of Taicang has remained unchanged. The spot prices of Inner Mongolia North Line and Henan Luoyang have increased, while the spot price of Taicang Port has decreased. The regional spreads have changed significantly. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory have all decreased. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of domestic and overseas upstream enterprises have increased, the production - sales rate of Northwest enterprises has increased, the operating rate of downstream external - procurement MTO devices has decreased, the operating rate of downstream formaldehyde has increased slightly, the operating rate of downstream acetic acid has decreased significantly, and the operating rate of downstream MTBE has increased. [4] Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in North China have remained unchanged, while the prices in East China, Central China, and South China have decreased. The closing prices of glass 2601 have decreased, and the closing price of glass 2605 has remained unchanged. The 01 basis has increased. The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest have remained unchanged. The closing prices of soda ash 2601 and 2605 have decreased, and the 01 basis has increased significantly. - **Supply**: The operating rate and weekly output of soda ash have decreased slightly, the daily melting volume of float glass has remained unchanged, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has decreased, and the price of 3.2mm coated glass has decreased. - **Inventory**: The inventory of glass factories has increased, the inventory of soda ash factories has increased, the inventory of soda ash delivery warehouses has decreased, and the inventory days of soda ash in glass factories have remained unchanged. - **Real Estate Data**: The new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area have all decreased compared with the previous period. [7] PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and 50% liquid caustic soda have remained unchanged. The market prices of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC and East China ethylene - based PVC have decreased. The prices of SHSEOS, SH2601, V2605, and V2601 have decreased, and the V basis has increased significantly. - **Export and Profit**: The overseas quotes and export profits of caustic soda and PVC have some data unavailable, and some data have changed. - **Supply and Profit**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry and the sample operating rate in Shandong have decreased slightly, the operating rate of PVC has decreased, the profit of externally - purchased calcium - carbide - based PVC has remained unchanged, and the profit of Northwest integrated PVC has decreased. - **Demand**: The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have increased or decreased. The pre - sales volume of PVC has decreased. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China and Shandong has decreased, the upstream factory - warehouse inventory of PVC has decreased, and the total social inventory of PVC has decreased. [8] Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: The price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex has increased, the full - latex basis has decreased, the price of Thai standard mixed rubber has decreased, the non - standard price difference has decreased significantly, and the prices of some raw materials have remained unchanged. The 9 - 1 spread has remained unchanged, the 1 - 5 spread has increased, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased. - **Production and Consumption**: The production of Thailand, Indonesia, and China in September has changed, the production of India has increased. The operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires have changed slightly, the domestic tire production in October has decreased, the tire export volume in October has decreased, the import volume of natural rubber in September has increased, and the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber in October has decreased. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE have increased, the出库 rate of dry rubber in the bonded warehouse in Qingdao has decreased, and the入库 and出库 rates of dry rubber in general trade in Qingdao have increased. [9] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha have decreased, the price of CFR Northeast Asia ethylene has remained unchanged, the price of CFR China pure benzene has increased, the pure benzene - naphtha spread and ethylene - naphtha spread have decreased,

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views Pig Industry - Recently, the sentiment of small - scale farmers holding back sales has increased, and the spot price shows signs of stabilizing. With colder weather and the start of curing in the southwest, the demand expectation has improved, providing short - term price support. However, the market is not optimistic about the medium - term pig price. After the price recovers, the enthusiasm for slaughter increases, which is unfavorable for the near - month futures. There are sporadic outbreaks in the Northeast, and the spread of the epidemic needs continuous tracking. The 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can continue to be held [2]. Grains Industry - The NOPA's October crushing data exceeded market expectations, supporting US soybeans. But the export demand is weak, and China's 13% tariff on US soybeans is still unfavorable for US soybean exports. The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the high - level operation of crushers continues the loose pattern of soybean meal. The current futures price has limited downward space, but it is difficult to strengthen only based on cost and crushing profit. Continue to pay attention to the state - reserve soybean trends, and soybean meal is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [5]. Corn Industry - The supply in the Northeast is sufficient, but the enthusiasm for selling grain is average, and the price is stable. In North China, the number of trucks arriving at enterprises is acceptable, and enterprises purchase as needed, with prices also stable. It is the stage of new - season corn supply, and about 20% of the grain has been sold. There is still selling pressure due to the bumper harvest. On the demand side, the deep - processing profit is relatively good, and the enthusiasm for replenishing inventory is high. The feed industry has increased the inventory - replenishing enthusiasm of low - inventory enterprises, but the increase is limited, and purchases are still cautious. In the short term, corn trading is relatively stable, and the futures price will fluctuate narrowly. Pay attention to the grain - selling rhythm and traders' sentiment [7]. Oil Industry - For palm oil, due to the decline in production, improvement in exports, and the boost from the rise of peripheral vegetable oils, Malaysian palm oil may reach 4300 ringgit again. Affected by the continued strengthening of Malaysian palm oil, domestic palm oil futures may reach the 8900 - 9000 yuan range. For soybean oil, the US EPA has proposed to set the biodiesel quota for 2026 at 71.2 billion RIN, which is equivalent to about 56.1 billion gallons, higher than the industry's previous proposal. Policies on biodiesel in Canada and Indonesia have boosted the vegetable oil market. However, the NOPA data shows that the US soybean oil inventory at the end of October increased and exceeded market expectations. The CBOT soybean is stagnant, affecting the cost side of CBOT soybean oil. In China, the supply of soybean oil is sufficient, and the demand is limited, but the domestic fundamentals have been digested by the market. If the CBOT soybean oil rises after the shock, the January contract of domestic soybean oil futures may rise to around 8500 yuan [9]. Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures closed lower due to sufficient sugar supply. It is expected that the global sugar supply will remain in surplus in the 2025/26 season. Brazil's end - season production is strong, and the harvest in India and Thailand in the Northern Hemisphere has started well, strengthening the expectation of sufficient supply during Brazil's off - season. The supply is loose, and the raw sugar price will be weak. The old - sugar market has basically cleared inventory, new sugar pressure is increasing in Guangxi, and China's sugar imports in October increased by 39% year - on - year, slightly exceeding expectations. The overall sugar price is expected to remain weak [12]. Cotton Industry - ICE cotton futures closed lower as traders awaited the US weekly export sales report. Domestically, the new cotton is concentrated on the market in the short term, and the production is high, bringing short - term supply pressure. However, the downstream textile enterprises' finished - product inventory pressure is not large, which supports the cotton price. In the short term, the cotton price may be under pressure and run weakly within a range [13]. Egg Industry - The number of newly - laying hens is at a low level, but the number of old hens for slaughter has not increased significantly. The inventory of laying hens remains high, and the supply pressure persists. With favorable storage conditions, there is inventory backlog at all levels, and the loose supply pattern is difficult to change in the short term. The demand is weak, and trading at all levels is cautious. After the continuous decline of egg prices, the sentiment of holding back sales is strong in low - price areas, and the sales in high - price areas are slow. The current egg price has reached the bottom of the stage, and the space for further sharp decline may be limited. The short positions in the 2512 contract can gradually stop losses at the previous low [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Industry Futures Indicators - The basis of the main contract increased by 45.45%, the price of "Pig 2605" decreased by 0.37% to 11995 yuan/ton, the price of "Pig 2601" increased by 0.22% to 11560 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 13.86% to - 435, the main - contract position decreased by 2.87% to 138334, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 90 [2]. Spot Prices - The spot prices in Henan, Shandong, Sichuan, Liaoning, Guangdong, Hunan, and Hebei changed to 11800, 11800, 11350, 11550, 12210, 11800, and 11800 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Spot Indicators - The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 1.84% to 202202, the weekly white - strip price decreased by 0.97% to 18.42 yuan/kg, the weekly piglet price increased by 1.47% to 17.25 yuan/kg, the weekly sow price remained unchanged at 32.47 yuan/kg, the weekly slaughter weight increased by 0.14% to 128.48 kg, the weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 28.70% to - 115 yuan/head, the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 17.15% to - 206 yuan/head, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased by 0.07% to 40350000 heads [2]. Grains Industry Soybean Meal - The current price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.33% to 3050 yuan/ton, the futures price of "M2601" decreased by 0.62% to 3022 yuan/ton, the basis of "M2601" increased by 47.37% to 28, the spot basis quote remained unchanged at "m2601 - 50", the crushing profit of Brazilian February shipments increased by 127.7% to 13, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.4% to 40890 [5]. Rapeseed Meal - The current price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.64% to 2400 yuan/ton, the futures price of "RM2601" decreased by 0.49% to 2419 yuan/ton, the basis of "RM2601" decreased by 311.11% to - 19, the crushing profit of Canadian January shipments decreased by 8.16% to 630, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 27.14% to 2000 [5]. Soybeans - The current price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3920 yuan/ton, the futures price of the main soybean - one contract decreased by 0.10% to 4145 yuan/ton, the basis of the main soybean - one contract increased by 1.75% to - 225, the current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3950 yuan/ton, the futures price of the main soybean - two contract decreased by 0.19% to 3748 yuan/ton, the basis of the main soybean - two contract increased by 3.59% to 202, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 12832 [5]. Spreads - The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal decreased by 5.26% to 198, the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal decreased by 5.88% to 32, the spot oil - meal ratio increased by 0.91% to 2.84, the main - contract oil - meal ratio increased by 1.06% to 2.77, the spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased by 4.84% to 650, and the 2601 soybean - rapeseed meal spread decreased by 1.15% to 603 [5]. Corn Industry Corn - The price of "Corn 2601" increased by 0.32% to 2175 yuan/ton, the Pingcang price at Jinzhou Port decreased by 0.45% to 2220 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 27.42% to 45, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 4.11% to - 70, the bulk grain price at Shekou remained unchanged at 2360 yuan/ton, the north - south trade profit increased by 25.64% to 40, the CIF price increased by 0.04% to 2033 yuan/ton, the import profit decreased by 0.23% to 327, the number of early - morning remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises decreased by 30.03% to 508, the position increased by 1.17% to 1903247, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 69337 [7]. Corn Starch - The price of "Corn Starch 2601" increased by 0.53% to 2480 yuan/ton, the spot price in Changchun increased by 1.99% to 2560 yuan/ton, the spot price in Weifang increased by 1.82% to 2800 yuan/ton, the basis increased by 86.05% to 80, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 8.05% to - 80, the 01 contract spread between starch and corn increased by 2.01% to 305, the Shandong starch profit remained unchanged at 31, the position decreased by 0.57% to 282790, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 12453 [7]. Oil Industry Soybean Oil - The current price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu increased by 0.58% to 8670 yuan/ton, the futures price of "Y2601" increased by 0.43% to 8356 yuan/ton, the basis increased by 4.67% to 314, the spot basis quote decreased by 10 to "01 + 260", and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.42% to 24627 [9]. Palm Oil - The current price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 1.39% to 8740 yuan/ton, the futures price of "P2601" increased by 1.65% to 8708 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 27.27% to - 88, the spot basis quote decreased by 30 to "01 - 50", the January import cost at Guangzhou Port increased by 1.31% to 9256.7 yuan/ton, the January import profit at Guangzhou Port increased by 5.64% to - 405, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 730 [9]. Rapeseed Oil - The current price of first - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 0.97% to 10270 yuan/ton, the futures price of "Ol601" decreased by 0.62% to 9813 yuan/ton, the basis decreased by 9.85% to 357, and the spot basis quote remained unchanged at "01 + 350" [9]. Spreads - The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil decreased by 12.28% to 200, the 01 - 05 spread of palm oil decreased by 14.99% to - 114, the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed oil decreased by 9.85% to 363, the spot soybean - palm oil spread remained unchanged at - 70, the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread decreased by 7.67% to - 730, the spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 9.09% to 1500, and the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 6.24% to 1457 [9]. Sugar Industry Futures Market - The price of "Sugar 2601" decreased by 0.48% to 5381 yuan/ton, the price of "Sugar 2605" decreased by 0.35% to 5338 yuan/ton, the price of the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.34% to 14.66 cents/pound, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 14.00% to 43, the main - contract position increased by 6.83% to 388009, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.13% to 8428, and the effective forecast remained unchanged at 183 [12]. Spot Market - The price in Nanning decreased by 0.54% to 5550 yuan/ton, the price in Kunming decreased by 0.90% to 5500 yuan/ton, the Nanning basis decreased by 4.93% to 212, the Kunming basis decreased by 16.06% to 162, the price of imported Brazilian sugar within the quota decreased by 0.73% to 4060 yuan/ton, the price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota decreased by 0.75% to 5143 yuan/ton, the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar within the quota and Nanning remained unchanged at - 1490, and the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota and Nanning decreased by 2.26% to - 407 [12]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1116.21 million tons, the cumulative national sugar sales increased by 9.17% to 1048.00 million tons, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi increased by 4.59% to 646.50 million tons, the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi decreased by 41.20% to 26.66 million tons, the cumulative national sugar sales rate decreased by 2.60% to 93.90%, the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi increased by 4.80% to 93.90%, the national industrial sugar inventory decreased by 41.20% to 68.21 million tons, the industrial sugar inventory in Guangxi increased by 62.90% to 44.21 million tons, the industrial sugar inventory in Yunnan increased by 26.60% to 33.65 million tons, and the sugar import increased by 37.50% to 55.00 million tons [12]. Cotton Industry Futures Market - The price of "Cotton 2605" increased by 0.63% to 13490 yuan/ton, the price of "Cotton 2601" increased by 0.67% to 13485 yuan/ton, the price of the ICE US cotton main contract decreased by 0.78% to 63.94 cents/pound, the 5 - 1 spread decreased by 50.00% to 5, the main - contract position decreased by 2.05% to 553421, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 20.52% to 3486, and the effective forecast increased by 23.92% to 1150 [13]. Spot Market - The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton of grade 3128B decreased by 0.01% to 14557 yuan/ton, the CC Index of grade 3128B decreased by 0.07% to 14779 yuan/ton, the FC Index of grade M decreased by 0.47%

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings Group 2: Report Core Views - **Copper**: Market sentiment is cautious, with prices oscillating. In the long - term, supply - demand contradictions support a gradual upward shift of the price floor. Pay attention to demand changes and overseas interest - rate cut expectations, with the main contract reference range of 85500 - 87500 yuan/ton [1] - **Zinc**: Fundamental changes are limited, with prices oscillating. Supply is expected to face less pressure, and demand shows no significant upside. The LME inventory is increasing, and the risk of a short squeeze has eased. Zinc exports may boost domestic prices. In the short term, prices will likely continue to oscillate, with the main contract reference range of 22200 - 22800 yuan/ton [3] - **Aluminum**: Alumina prices are expected to remain weak and oscillate, with the main contract reference range of 2700 - 2900 yuan/ton. The price of Shanghai aluminum will fluctuate between macro - positive factors and weak fundamentals. The medium - term supply shortage remains [4] - **Tin**: The tin ore supply is tight, and demand shows regional differences. With positive semiconductor sentiment, long positions can be held. Monitor macro - level changes and the recovery of supply from Myanmar [6] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of ADC12 will remain strong in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. Focus on the improvement of scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement, and inventory reduction [9] - **Nickel**: Macro - factors are exerting some pressure, and the fundamentals are improving marginally. The medium - term supply is abundant, restricting upward price movement. The price is expected to be weak, with the main contract reference range of 113000 - 118000 yuan/ton [11] - **Stainless Steel**: Policy and macro - drivers are insufficient, and the fundamentals are not significantly improved. Supply and inventory pressures remain, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 12300 - 12600 yuan/ton [13] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market sentiment is high, and the price is expected to remain strong in the short term, followed by wide - range fluctuations. Be cautious when chasing long positions, and consider partial profit - taking for existing long positions [15] - **Polysilicon**: Prices are expected to oscillate in a high - level range. Futures may decline, and attention should be paid to production control and demand changes [16] - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main fluctuation range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. Consider short - selling or hedging at high prices [17] Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 86715 yuan/ton, up 0.13% [1] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, down 2.62%. In September, imports were 33.43 million tons, up 26.50% [1] Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22420 yuan/ton, up 0.45% [3] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, up 2.85%. In September, imports were 2.27 million tons, down 11.61%, and exports were 0.25 million tons, up 696.78% [3] Aluminum - **Alumina** - **Price and Spread**: Aluminum oxide prices in different regions are mostly stable [4] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, alumina production was 778.53 million tons, up 2.39% [4] - **Aluminum** - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 21550 yuan/ton, up 0.42% [4] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, up 3.52%. In September, imports were 24.68 million tons, up 13.57%, and exports were 2.90 million tons, up 13.07% [4] Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price is 291500 yuan/ton, up 0.73% [6] - **Fundamental Data**: In September, tin ore imports were 8714 tons, down 15.13%. In October, SMM refined tin production was 16090 tons, up 53.09% [6] Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21450 yuan/ton, unchanged [9] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 64.50 million tons, down 2.42%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.60 million tons, up 1.06% [9] Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 117600 yuan/ton, up 0.56% [11] - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production was 35900 tons, up 0.84%. Imports were 38164 tons, up 124.36% [11] Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12700 yuan/ton, unchanged [13] - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, up 0.38%. Indonesia's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 42.35 million tons, up 0.36% [13] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 88900 yuan/ton, up 1.72% [15] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, lithium carbonate production was 92260 tons, up 5.73%. Demand was 126961 tons, up 8.70% [15] Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: The average price of N - type re - feedstock remains at 52300 yuan/kg [16] - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production was 2.68 million tons, down 0.74%. Monthly production was 13.40 million tons, up 3.08% [16] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: The price of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon is 8450 yuan/ton, unchanged [17] - **Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production was 45.22 million tons, up 7.46%. The national operating rate was 68.12%, up 9.98% [17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views No clear core views are presented in the given reports. The reports mainly provide daily data on various financial products including stock index futures, bond futures, precious metals, and container shipping, without explicit investment - related core views. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Futures - Spot Spreads**: For example, the F futures - spot spread was - 13.19, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 52.00% and an all - time quantile of 32.30%. Different contracts like H, IC, IM also had their respective futures - spot spreads and quantiles [1]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Such as the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts for different varieties, with values and historical quantiles provided. For instance, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of a certain variety was - 14.60, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 28.60% and an all - time quantile of 29.30% [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios like the ratio of IC to IF was 1.5543, with a change of - 0.0049, and 1 - year and all - time historical quantiles of 86.80% and 86.70% respectively [1]. 3.2 Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Basis**: The basis of different bond futures contracts such as TS, TF, T, TL was reported, along with their values, changes, and historical quantiles. For example, the T basis was 1.5950, with a historical quantile of 54.70% [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: Spreads between different contract periods (current - quarter, next - quarter, etc.) of bond futures were given, including values, changes, and historical quantiles. For example, the spread between the current - quarter and next - quarter contracts of TS was 0.0020, with a historical quantile of 21.40% [2]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads between different bond futures varieties like TS - TF, TS - T were reported, with values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Domestic and foreign futures closing prices, as well as spot prices of gold and silver, were presented, along with their changes and percentage changes. For example, the AU2512 contract of domestic gold futures closed at 937.00 yuan/gram on November 19, with a 2.01% increase [3]. - **Basis**: The basis between different gold and silver contracts (e.g., gold TD - Shanghai gold futures main contract) was reported, including values, changes, and historical quantiles. For example, the basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold futures main contract was - 2.72, with a historical quantile of 48.50% [3]. - **Ratios and Yields**: Ratios such as COMEX gold/silver and yields of US Treasury bonds (10 - year and 2 - year) were provided, along with their changes and percentage changes. For example, the COMEX gold/silver ratio was 79.86, with a - 0.76% change [3]. 3.4 Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Shipping Indexes**: Settlement price indexes of container shipping (SCFIS for European and US - West routes) and Shanghai export container freight rates (SCFI) were reported, along with their changes and percentage changes. For example, the SCFIS (European route) was 1357.67 points on November 17, with a - 9.78% decrease compared to November 10 [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of different container shipping contracts (e.g., EC2602) and their basis were presented, along with changes and percentage changes. For example, the EC2602 (main contract) was 1640.1 on November 19, with a - 2.26% decrease [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators (port on - time rate, port calls), export balances, and overseas economic indicators (PMI, consumer confidence index) were provided, along with their changes and percentage changes. For example, the global container shipping capacity supply was 3342.26 million TEU on November 19, with a 0.01% increase [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a daily tracking of the positions of stock index futures, including the overall position changes and the important position changes of the top 20 seats for IF, IH, IC, and IM futures contracts [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs IF Futures - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On November 19, the total position of the IF variety decreased by 6,521 lots, and the position of the main contract 2512 decreased by 2,502 lots [3]. - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IF variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 40,336 lots. The seat with the largest increase in long positions was Yong'an Futures, with an intraday increase of 486 lots; the seat with the largest decrease in long positions was Guotai Junan Futures, with an intraday decrease of 1,801 lots [4]. - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IF variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 44,466 lots. The seat with the largest increase in short positions was Huatai Futures, with an intraday increase of 529 lots; the seat with the largest decrease in short positions was Guotai Junan Futures, with an intraday decrease of 2,716 lots [6]. IH Futures - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On November 19, the total position of the IH variety decreased by 2,454 lots, and the position of the main contract 2512 decreased by 1,076 lots [9]. - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IH variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 12,853 lots. The seat with the largest increase in long positions was Haitong Futures, with an intraday increase of 293 lots; the seat with the largest decrease in long positions was Guoxin Futures, with an intraday decrease of 398 lots [9]. - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IH variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 13,533 lots. The seat with the largest increase in short positions among the top 20 seats was Haitong Futures, with an intraday increase of 141 lots; the seat with the largest decrease in short positions was Guotai Junan Futures, with an intraday decrease of 826 lots [10]. IC Futures - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On November 19, the total position of the IC variety decreased by 5,507 lots, and the position of the main contract 2512 increased by 2,214 lots [14]. - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IC variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 37,098 lots. The seat with the largest increase in long positions was Zheshang Futures, with an intraday increase of 336 lots; the seat with the largest decrease in long positions was Guotai Junan Futures, with an intraday decrease of 1,381 lots [15]. - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IC variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 41,278 lots. The seat with the largest increase in short positions was Dongzheng Futures, with an intraday increase of 414 lots; the seat with the largest decrease in short positions was Guotai Junan Futures, with an intraday decrease of 1,331 lots [17]. IM Futures - **Total Position and Main Contract Position Changes**: On November 19, the total position of the IM variety increased by 2,119 lots, and the position of the main contract 2512 increased by 11,495 lots [20]. - **Top 20 Long Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 long seats of the IM variety on that day, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with a total position of 52,034 lots. The seat with the largest increase in long positions was Haitong Futures, with an intraday increase of 1,248 lots; the seat with the largest decrease in long positions was CITIC Futures, with an intraday decrease of 1,428 lots [20]. - **Top 20 Short Seats Position Changes**: Among the top 20 short seats of the IM variety on that day, CITIC Futures ranked first with a total position of 74,481 lots. The seat with the largest increase in short positions among the top 20 seats was Haitong Futures, with an intraday increase of 1,845 lots; the seat with the largest decrease in short positions was Zhongtai Futures, with an intraday decrease of 757 lots [22].

张晓珍 Z0003135 | LPG价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 11月19日 | 11月18日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 主力 PG2512 | 4394 | 4351 | 43.0 | 0.99% | | | PG2601 | 4327 | 4290 | 37.0 | 0.86% | | | PG2602 | 4204 | 4166 | 38.0 | 0.91% | | | PG2603 | 4038 | 4003 | 35.0 | 0.87% | | | PG12-01 | 6/ | 61 | 6.0 | 9.84% | | | PG12-02 | 190 | 185 | 5.0 | 2.70% | 元/吨 | | PG12-03 | 356 | 348 | 8.0 | 2.30% | | | 华南现货(民用气) | 4400 | 4500 | -100.0 | -2.22% | | | 可交割现货 | 4310 | 4310 | 0.0 | 0.00% | | | 基差: 可交割现货-PG12 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Domestic stock index futures show strong resilience, with overall volatility decreasing and waiting for stabilization. After the report release, the A - share market is in a repricing adjustment, with common short - term phased corrections and rebounds and limited downside risks. [3] - The yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond hits resistance when dropping to around 1.8%. In the short term, lacking further drivers, the bond market may continue to fluctuate narrowly. [3] - The gold price seeks to stabilize around $4000 (925 yuan) after a correction. It is recommended to buy on dips and sell out - of - the - money put options. The silver price follows gold, with support around $49 (11800 yuan), and it is advisable to try long positions on dips. [3] - The main contract of the container shipping index (European line) fluctuates and declines, with a short - term upward trend expected. [3] - For various commodities, different trends and trading strategies are proposed based on their supply - demand situations, inventory conditions, and market factors. [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The entire stock index series experiences a correction, while the technology sector rises against the trend. It is recommended to mainly wait and see. If there is a deep decline in a single day, a bull put spread of put options can be arranged. [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: The money market tightens in the short term, and the bond market fluctuates narrowly. For the TL2512 contract, the fluctuation range is expected to be between 115.8 - 116.7, and an interval trading strategy is recommended. [3] - **Precious Metals**: The market liquidity is tight, and the US stocks decline continuously. Precious metals hit the bottom and rebound during the session. Gold is recommended to be bought on dips, and out - of - the - money put options can be sold. Silver is recommended to try long positions on dips. [3] Black - **Steel**: There is a differentiation in the inventory of iron and carbon elements. It is recommended to hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils and stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. [3] - **Iron Ore**: Shipments increase, arrivals decrease, port stocks rise, and pig iron production rebounds. The iron ore price fluctuates, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines with a reference interval of 750 - 800. [3] - **Coking Coal**: The price of coking coal at the origin shows mixed trends, and the price of Mongolian coal drops. Steel mills' production cuts are negative for restocking demand. It is viewed as bearish with a reference interval of 1100 - 1250. [3] - **Coke**: The fourth round of price increases for coke is fully implemented, but the port trading price drops. It is viewed as bearish with a reference interval of 1600 - 1750. [3] Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The market sentiment is cautious, and the copper price fluctuates. The main contract reference range is 85000 - 87000. [3] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price corrects with a reduction in positions. Attention should be paid to the subsequent improvement of the fundamentals. The main contract reference range is 21200 - 21800, and if the positions continue to decrease, there is still downward room in the short term. [3] - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Different trends and trading strategies are proposed for zinc, tin, nickel, stainless steel, and other non - ferrous metals based on their supply - demand and market conditions. [3] New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The demand is weak, and the polysilicon futures decline with fluctuations. The price fluctuation range is 50000 - 58000. [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The difference between long and short positions widens, and the market sentiment is adjusted. The market fluctuates widely, and it is recommended to wait and see. [3] Chemical - **PX**: The positive support is limited, and PX fluctuates in the short term. It should be treated as fluctuating at a high level between 6600 - 6900 in the short term. [3] - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the rebound of PTA is under pressure. It fluctuates in the 4500 - 4800 interval in the short term, and a rolling reverse arbitrage of TA1 - 5 is recommended. [3] - **Other Chemical Products**: Different trends and trading strategies are proposed for short - fiber, bottle - grade chips, ethylene glycol, benzene, styrene, and other chemical products based on their supply - demand and market conditions. [3] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The crushing data is excellent, and US soybeans turn strong. Attention should be paid to the support around 3000 for the M01 contract. [3] - **Live Hogs**: The reluctance to sell sentiment rises, and the spot price shows signs of stabilization. A 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage should be held. [3] - **Other Agricultural Products**: Different trends and trading strategies are proposed for corn, palm oil, raw sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, dates, etc. based on their supply - demand and market conditions. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View of the Report - Recently, the spot price of logs has been weak and has been adjusted downward. The supply-side arrival volume continues to recover, putting significant pressure on the market. However, the current futures price is at a relatively low level, and the obvious inversion of domestic and foreign prices forms a certain support for import costs, limiting the downside space of the futures price. Overall, in the context of weak supply and demand, the log futures market is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On November 18, the prices of log futures contracts LG2601, LG2603, and LG2605 were 785, 794, and 808 yuan/cubic meter respectively, down 0.51%, 0.63%, and 0.19% from the previous day. The prices of some specifications of radiata pine logs in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port decreased, with the largest decline of 3.41% for large radiata pine in Rizhao Port. The prices of radiata pine 4m medium A and spruce 11.8m in the outer market remained unchanged [1] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On November 18, the RMB against the US dollar exchange rate was 7.113 yuan, up 0.01 yuan from the previous day, and the import theoretical cost was 810.99 yuan, up 0.91 yuan from the previous day [1] Supply: Monthly - In October, the port throughput was 201.3 million cubic meters, up 13.99% from September. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 54, up 17.39% from the previous month [1] Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of November 14, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 2.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu increased by 2.04% and 1.46% respectively [1][2] Demand: Average Daily Outbound Volume - As of November 14, the average daily outbound volume of logs was 65,600 cubic meters, a decrease of 7,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The demand in China and Shandong decreased by 1% and 3% respectively, while the demand in Jiangsu increased by 7% [1][2] Forecast of Arrival Ships - From November 17 - 23, 2025, 13 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 ports in China, an increase of 3 ships from the previous week, a week-on-week increase of 30%; the total arrival volume is about 465,000 cubic meters, an increase of 150,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week-on-week increase of 48% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View No clear core view presented in the given content. It mainly shows a comprehensive list of various commodity and financial futures' price - related data including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and historical quantiles. 3. Summary by Categories Metals and Minerals - **Ferrous Metals**: For silicon iron (SF601), the spot price is 5870, the futures price is 5680, and the basis rate is 3.35%. For silicon manganese (SM601), the spot price is 6517. For HRB400 20mm rebar (RB2601), the spot price is 3230, the futures price is 3090, and the basis rate is 4.53%. The price of iron ore (I2601) has a spot price of 856 and a futures price of 792, with a basis rate of 8.03%. Coke (J2601) has a spot price of 1650 and a futures price of 1646, and the basis rate is - 0.22%. Coking coal (JM2601) has a spot price of 1291 and a futures price of 1159, with a basis rate of 11.39% [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper (CU2512) has a spot price of 86005, a futures price of 85650, and the basis rate is 0.41%. Aluminum (AL2601) has a spot price of 21465, a futures price of 21460, and the basis rate is - 0.02%. Zinc (ZN2512) has a spot price of 22310, a futures price of 22250, and the basis rate is - 0.27%. Tin (SN2512) has a spot price of 289400, a futures price of 288880, and the basis rate is 0.18% [1]. Precious Metals - Gold (AU2512) has a spot price of 918.5, a futures price of 915.6, and the basis rate is - 0.32%. Silver (AG2602) has a spot price of 11699.0, a futures price of 11697.0, and the basis rate is - 0.02% [1]. Agricultural Products - For soybean meal (M2601), the spot price is 3041.0, the futures price is 3010, and the basis rate is - 1.02%. For soybean oil (Y2601), the spot price is 8500, the futures price is 8320.0, and the basis rate is 2.16%. For palm oil (P2601), the spot price is 8708.0, the futures price is 8630, and the basis rate is - 0.90% [1]. Energy and Chemicals - PX (PX601) has a spot price of 6780.0, a futures price of 6768.0, and the basis rate is 0.18%. PTA (TA601) has a spot price of 4670.0, a futures price of 4600.0, and the basis rate is - 1.50%. Ethylene glycol (EG2601) has a spot price of 3935.0, a futures price of 3907.0, and the basis rate is 0.72% [1]. Financial Futures - For stock index futures, IF2512.CFE has a spot price of 4568.2, a futures price of 4555.0, and the basis rate is - 0.29%. IH2512.CFE has a spot price of 2997.6, a futures price of 3003.0, and the basis rate is - 0.18%. IC2512.CFE has a spot price of 7151.0, a futures price of 7079.8, and the basis rate is - 1.01%. For bond futures, 2 - year bond (TS2512) has a spot price of 102.49, a futures price of 100.05, and the basis rate is - 0.03% [1].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints Steel prices are stable, but the basis is weakening. Coke coal prices have dropped significantly, while iron ore prices are rising. The overall demand for five major steel products is declining, and steel mills are reducing production. However, the daily average hot metal production has increased, which is expected to lead to a rebound in the output of finished steel products. In terms of different varieties, the production and inventory of rebar are decreasing, with relatively few contradictions. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils are basically balanced, but the inventory is at a high level and has not been cleared, so the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar will continue to converge. The port inventory of iron ore is continuously accumulating, and the supply of iron elements in the January contract is becoming more abundant, so it is not recommended to go long. On a single side, the apparent demand for steel is falling, and the inventory has not been cleared, so a short position can be considered [1]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils in different regions have shown different degrees of change. The prices of rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts and hot-rolled coils 05, 10, and 01 contracts have all declined. The profit margins of steel products in different regions and production processes have also changed, with some showing an increase and some a decrease [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The prices of steel billets and slab billets remain unchanged. The cost of electric furnace rebar in Jiangsu is stable, while the cost of converter rebar has decreased. The profit margins of hot-rolled coils in different regions have increased to varying degrees [1]. - **Production**: The daily average hot metal production has increased by 2.6 to 236.8, a rise of 1.1%. The production of five major steel products has decreased by 22.4 to 834.4, a decline of 2.6%. The production of rebar has decreased by 8.5 to 200.0, a decline of 4.1%, including a 4.0% decrease in electric furnace production and a 4.1% decrease in converter production. The production of hot-rolled coils has decreased by 4.5 to 313.7, a decline of 1.4% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 26.2 to 1477.4, a decline of 1.7%. The inventory of rebar has decreased by 16.4 to 576.2, a decline of 2.8%. The inventory of hot-rolled coils has remained basically unchanged [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume has decreased by 3.7 to 9.6, a decline of 27.9%. The apparent demand for five major steel products has decreased by 6.3 to 860.6, a decline of 0.7%. The apparent demand for rebar has decreased by 2.2 to 216.4, a decline of 1.0%. The apparent demand for hot-rolled coils has decreased by 0.7 to 313.6, a decline of 0.2% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The iron ore futures continued to rebound yesterday. On the supply side, the global shipment volume of iron ore has increased week-on-week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports has continued to decline. However, based on recent shipment data, the average arrival volume in the future is expected to increase. On the demand side, the profit margin of steel mills has slightly declined, the hot metal production has increased, and the replenishment demand of steel mills has increased. From the data of five major steel products, it can be seen that the production and inventory are continuing to decline seasonally, the apparent demand is decreasing, and the demand is weakening. In terms of inventory, the port inventory is accumulating, but the inventory of deliverable products is low. The port clearance volume has increased, and the equity ore inventory of steel mills has risen. Looking forward, although the hot metal production has increased this week, there is limited room for further increase. The current profit margin and inventory level of steel mills are not sufficient to trigger a negative feedback. It is expected that iron ore will show a high-level oscillating trend, and a wait-and-see approach is recommended for single-side trading [5]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The basis of iron ore 01 contract for different varieties has decreased to varying degrees. The 5 - 9 spread has decreased by 1.0 to 23.5, a decline of 4.1%. The 9 - 1 spread has decreased by 1.5 to -58.0, a decline of 2.7%. The 1 - 5 spread has increased by 2.5 to 34.5, an increase of 7.8% [5]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased by 472.3 to 2268.9, a decline of 17.2%. The global weekly shipment volume has increased by 447.4 to 3516.4, an increase of 14.6%. The monthly national import volume has increased by 1111.6 to 11632.6, an increase of 10.6% [5]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills has increased by 2.7 to 236.9, an increase of 1.1%. The weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports has increased by 6.0 to 327.0, an increase of 1.9%. The monthly national pig iron production has decreased by 49.7 to 6554.9, a decline of 0.8%. The monthly national crude steel production has decreased by 149.3 to 7199.7, a decline of 2.0% [5]. - **Inventory**: The weekly port inventory at 45 ports has decreased slightly by 0.1% to 15114.45. The weekly imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills has increased by 66.1 to 9076.0, an increase of 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills remain unchanged at 21.0 days [5]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints Yesterday, the coke and coking coal futures both showed a weak downward trend. The spot price of coking coal in Shanxi has shown signs of loosening, and the auction price has reached the highest level of the year, providing cost support for coke. The fourth round of price increase for coke has been fully implemented, and it is expected to remain stable in the short term, but mainstream coking enterprises still have plans for further price increases. On the supply side, the production of some停产 coal mines in Shanxi, Luliang, Linfen, and Wuhai is expected to increase, but the production recovery is limited. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has increased significantly since November, and the inventory at the port has continued to rise. On the demand side, the environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan have been lifted, the hot metal production has increased from a low level, the steel price has oscillated weakly, and the profit of steel mills has decreased, which has a certain suppression effect on the price increase of coke. In terms of inventory, the inventory of coking plants, ports, and steel mills has decreased slightly, and the overall inventory is slightly lower than the middle level, with a tight supply - demand situation for coke and passive destocking by downstream enterprises. For coking coal, the inventory of coking enterprises and ports has decreased, while the inventory of coal mines, coal washing plants, ports, and steel mills has increased, and the overall inventory is slightly higher than the middle level. It is recommended to take a bearish view on single - side trading with an oscillating range for coke between 1600 - 1750 and for coking coal between 1100 - 1250, and to wait and see for the time being [8]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke and coking coal contracts have decreased to varying degrees. The spreads between different contracts of coke and coking coal have also changed. The coking profit of Steel Union (weekly) and the profit of sample coal mines (weekly) have shown different trends [8]. - **Supply**: The daily average production of all - sample coking plants has decreased by 0.6 to 63.0, a decline of 0.9%. The daily average production of 247 steel mills has increased slightly by 0.1 to 46.2, an increase of 0.2%. The production of raw coal and clean coal has increased to varying degrees [8]. - **Demand**: The hot metal production of 247 steel mills has increased by 2.7 to 236.9, an increase of 1.1%. The demand for coke is related to the production of hot metal, and the production of coke has also shown a certain change [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coke has decreased by 7.7 to 879.4, a decline of 0.9%. The inventory of coking plants, steel mills, and ports has all decreased to varying degrees. The inventory of coking coal has also changed, with the inventory of some parties increasing and some decreasing [8]. - **Supply - Demand Gap**: The calculated supply - demand gap of coke has decreased by 1.8 to -5.5 [8].