广发早知道-汇总版 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 5 月 23 日星期五 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z00 ...

数据来源：Wind、Mystee、富宝资讯、广发期货发展研究中心。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。 免责声明 | 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月22日 | | | 問數波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3190 | 3190 | O | 105 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3220 | 3220 | O | 135 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3350 | 3350 | 0 | 265 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3101 | 3095 | 6 | 8d | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3061 | 3058 | 3 | 129 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3085 | 3083 | 2 | 105 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3280 | 3280 | 0 | 57 | | | 热卷现 ...

短期供需偏紧格局且油价不大跌前提下PX 下方空 供需偏紧格局对PX支撑偏强 间有限;PX9-1价差仍偏正套;PX-SC价差短期压 bX bX2509 | | | | PA 110 MILL 200 TET VIGI A 1 1 / 7 / 3 / 3 / 3 / 3 / 3 / 3 / 3 / 3 / 3 / 3 / 3 / 3 / 3 | LALM VA NA NATA MITT V OO N T 缩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PTA | TA2509 | 供需偏紧格局对PTA支撑偏强 | 供需偏紧格局且油价不大跌前提下TA下方空间有 | | | | | | 限:TA9-1关注反套机会 | | 能源 | 短社 | PF2507 | 短期驱动偏弱,价格跟随原料波动 | PF单边同PTA:PF盘面加工费低位做扩为主 | | 《工 | 瓶片 | PR2507 | 供需双增之下,短期供需矛盾不突出,绝对价格跟随成本波动 | PR单边同PTA: PR主力盘面加工费预计在350- | | | | | | 550元/吨区间波动,关注区间下沿做扩机会 | | | 乙醇 | ...

原木期货日报 库存:主要港口库存 (周度) 2月9日 单位 aller 涨跌 涨跌幅 地区 343.00 -2.0 -0.58% 中国 341.00 189.90 3.1 1.66% 山东 186.8 万/立方米 江苏 111.86 114.35 -2.5 -2 18% 需求: (周慶) 日均出库量 5月9日 涨跌幅 地区 5月16日 单位 旅跌 中国 6.14 6.15 -0.01 0% 万/立方米 3.20 3.30 -0.10 山东 -3% 2.22 0.07 江苏 2.29 3% 原木日均出库量(万方) 原木主要港口库存(万方) 750 650 550 450 350 250 150 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/111/112/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/110/111/112/11/1 -2023 2022 : ·2024 =2023 = =2022 =2024 =2025 辐射松4米中A:CFR价(美元/JAS立方米) 辐射松3.8中A现货价(元/立方米) 220 870 200 2020 2022 85 ...

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. Core Views - **Steel Industry**: The steel industry shows a structure of high production, low inventory, weak cost support, and expected demand recovery. Despite potential seasonal and export - related demand weaknesses, with the reduction of tariffs in May, terminal orders have improved, and steel exports remain high. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels, with attention on support at previous lows. It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. - **Iron Ore Industry**: The iron ore market is expected to oscillate in the short term. Although the high iron - water production keeps the inventory slightly decreasing, the expected increase in overseas mine shipments from May to June will intensify supply - demand pressure. However, improved macro - expectations may repair market sentiment [4]. - **Coke Industry**: The coke market is bearish. With steel mills reducing coke prices, the fundamental situation is unfavorable. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract when the price is high and continue to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [6]. - **Coking Coal Industry**: The coking coal market remains weak. Given the downward trend of coal prices and better fundamentals of finished products compared to coking coal, it is advisable to short the coking coal 2509 contract when the price is high and continue the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [6]. - **Silicon Iron Industry**: The silicon iron price is expected to oscillate. After previous production cuts, the supply pressure has eased, and factory inventories are decreasing. However, overall inventory is still at a medium - high level. Demand is limited, and it is necessary to focus on subsequent export changes [7]. - **Silicon Manganese Industry**: The silicon manganese market maintains production cuts. Supply pressure is concentrated in certain regions, and the price is expected to oscillate [7]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most steel spot prices remained unchanged, while futures prices showed small increases. For example, the price of the rebar 05 contract rose by 6 yuan/ton to 3101 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets and slabs remained stable. The profit of hot - rolled coils in South China increased by 8 yuan/ton, while the profit of rebar in South China decreased by 22 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average iron - water production remained unchanged at 245.6 tons, while the production of five major steel products decreased by 5.8 tons to 868.4 tons, a decline of 0.7% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 45.4 tons to 1430.7 tons, a decline of 3.1%. Rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories also decreased [1]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 68.6 tons to 913.8 tons, an increase of 8.1%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 46.4 tons to 260.3 tons, an increase of 21.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of iron ore spot and futures showed small changes. For example, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port increased by 1 yuan/ton to 765 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract basis of PB powder decreased by 59.9 yuan/ton to 82.2 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly global iron ore shipment volume increased by 318.8 tons to 3347.8 tons, an increase of 10.5%, while the weekly domestic arrival volume decreased by 83.3 tons to 2271.3 tons, a decline of 3.5% [4]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily iron - water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.9 tons to 244.8 tons, a decline of 0.4% [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port iron ore inventory decreased by 110.5 tons to 14055.63 tons, a decline of 0.8% [4]. Coke Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of the coke 09 contract increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1418 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract basis decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 2 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.2 tons to 67.2 tons, an increase of 0.3% [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly iron - water production decreased by 0.9 tons to 244.8 tons, a decline of 0.4% [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 11.3 tons to 983.2 tons, a decline of 1.1% [6]. Coking Coal Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of the coking coal 09 contract increased by 4 yuan/ton to 842 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract basis decreased by 9 yuan/ton to 108 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The weekly raw coal production increased by 2.8 tons to 895.8 tons, an increase of 0.3% [6]. - **Demand**: The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.2 tons to 67.2 tons, an increase of 0.3% [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of clean coal in Fenwei mines increased by 19.4 tons to 230.3 tons, an increase of 9.2% [6]. Silicon Iron Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the silicon iron main contract decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 5620 yuan/ton. The price of silicon iron in Tianjin decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 5750 yuan/ton [7]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost and profit in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged, with a production profit of - 118 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply**: The weekly silicon iron production decreased by 0.9 tons to 9.4 tons, a decline of 9.1% [7]. - **Demand**: The weekly silicon iron demand remained unchanged at 2.0 tons [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 1.0 tons to 74 tons, a decline of 11.8% [7]. Silicon Manganese Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the silicon manganese main contract increased by 14 yuan/ton to 5792 yuan/ton. The price of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 5580 yuan/ton [7]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in Inner Mongolia decreased by 9.6 yuan/ton to 5768.5 yuan/ton, and the production profit decreased by 10.4 yuan/ton to - 188.5 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply**: The weekly silicon manganese production decreased by 0.9 tons to 16.3 tons, a decline of 5.4% [7]. - **Demand**: The silicon manganese demand remained unchanged at 12.6 tons [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 2.5 tons to 20.7 tons, an increase of 13.9% [7].

| 镇产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月22日 | | | | 林嘉施 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日 涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解键 | 124525 | 124575 | -20 | -0.04% | 元/肥 | | 1#金川嶺 | 125475 | 125525 | -50 | -0.04% | 元/肥 | | 1#金川镍升贴水 | 2100 | 2150 | -50 | -2.33% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口娱 | 123575 | 123575 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镍升贴水 | 200 | 200 | 0 | | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | -204 | -202 | -3 | 1.27% | 美元/吨 | | 期货进口盈亏 | -2587 | -2726 | 138 | -5.10% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | ...

| 留注 | 品种/合约 | 现货价格 | 历史分位数 | 期货价格 | 星差 | 基差率 | 现货参考 | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 158 | 硅铁 (SF507) | 5/78 | 79.30% | 5620 | 2.81% | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 28 | 5850 | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 硅罐(SM509) | 5792 | 1.00% | 35.90% | 3190 | 129 | 4.21% | 58.80% | HRB40020mm: 上海 | 螺纹钢(RB2510) | 3061 | | | | | | ୧୪ | 热卷(HC2510) | 3280 | 3211 | 2.15% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 47.20% | 72 | 铁矿石 (12509) | 801 | 729 | 9.92% | 55.30% | 折算价 ...

Report on Stock Index Futures Spread Core Information - **Date**: May 22, 2025 - **Analysis of Spread Data**: The report provides detailed data on the current and inter - period spreads of various stock index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM), including the latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles [1]. Key Points - **IF Spreads**: The IF current - period spread was - 35.18, down 2.41 from the previous day. Inter - period spreads such as "next month - current month" were - 40.60, down 0.80 [1]. - **IH Spreads**: The IH current - period spread was - 15.83, up 1.40. The "next month - current month" inter - period spread was - 30.20, down 1.80 [1]. - **IC Spreads**: The IC current - period spread was - 102.32, down 5.76. The "next month - current month" inter - period spread was - 76.20, up 1.20 [1]. - **IM Spreads**: The IM current - period spread was - 131.58, down 4.96. The "next month - current month" inter - period spread was - 91.20, up 2.20 [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios like CSI 500/CSI 300 were 1.4702, down 0.0042, with a 1 - year quantile of 45.90% [1]. Report on Treasury Bond Futures Spread Core Information - **Date**: May 22, 2025 - **Analysis of Spread Data**: The report presents data on the basis, inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of treasury bond futures (TS, TF, T, TL), including the latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles [4]. Key Points - **Basis**: TS basis was 1.8110, down 0.0743; TF basis was 1.8222; T basis was 1.7962; TL basis was 1.7414 [4]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: For example, the "current quarter - next quarter" spread of TS was - 0.1180, down 0.0080 [4]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: TS - TF was - 3.6300, down 0.0330; TS - T was - 6.4550, up 0.0270 [4]. Report on Precious Metals Spot - Futures Core Information - **Date**: May 22, 2025 - **Analysis of Market Data**: The report covers domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, price ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals (gold and silver) [6]. Key Points - **Futures Prices**: Domestic AU2508 contract closed at 778.78 yuan/g, up 3.23%; AG2508 contract closed at 8272 yuan/kg, up 2.45%. COMEX gold closed at 3316.60 dollars/ounce, up 0.73%; COMEX silver closed at 33.58 dollars/ounce, up 0.95% [6]. - **Spot Prices**: London gold was 3314.36 dollars/ounce, up 0.76%; London silver was 33.38 dollars/ounce, up 0.95% [6]. - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract was - 5.16, down 2.97; silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract was - 35, down 18 [6]. - **Price Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver was 98.78, down 0.22%; Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver was 94.15, up 0.76% [6]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.58%, up 2.2%; 2 - year US Treasury yield was 4.00%, up 0.8%; US dollar index was 99.60, down 0.42% [6]. - **Inventory and Positions**: Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 17247 g, up 0.05%; silver inventory was 940799 kg, up 1.25% [6]. Report on Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Core Information - **Date**: May 22, 2025 - **Analysis of Market Data**: The report includes spot quotes, container shipping indices, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry [8]. Key Points - **Spot Quotes**: MAERSK's Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight was 2524 dollars/FEU, up 21.17%; CMA CGM's was 3402 dollars/FEU, up 15.09% [8]. - **Container Shipping Indices**: SCFIS (European route) was 1265.30, down 2.86%; SCFIS (US West route) was 1446.36, down 0.61% [8]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: EC2602 was 1416.8, down 0.99%; the basis of the main contract EC2508 was - 411.9, up 11.4 [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply was 3231.11 million TEU, up 0.05%; Shanghai port's arrival punctuality rate was 29.02, down 13.19% [8]. Report on Trading Calendar Core Information - **Date**: May 22, 2025 - **Data Schedules**: The report lists overseas and domestic economic data and financial events schedules for different industries [9]. Key Points - **Overseas Data**: Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value will be released at 16:00; US May S&P Global manufacturing and service PMI preliminary values will be released at 21:45 [9]. - **Domestic Data**: Steel Union's weekly production, inventory, and apparent demand data will be released in the afternoon; steel mill's start - up rate, capacity utilization, and hot metal production will be released in the evening [9].

然橡胶产业期现日报 寇帝斯 | 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月22日 | | | | 蒋诗语 | Z00170002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 | 1180 | 1180 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华东报价 | 1310 | 1320 | -10 | -0.76% | | | 华中报价 | 1130 | 1130 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华南报价 | 1320 | 1320 | 0 | 0.00% | アレ/旧屯 | | 玻璃2505 | 1136 | 1129 | 7 | 0.62% | | | 玻璃2509 | 1034 | 1025 | 9 | 0.88% | | | 05基差 | 44 | 51 | -7 | -13.73% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张庆 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The report provides a daily tracking of the positions of stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, and analyzes the changes in total positions, main contract positions, and the important changes in the top 20 seats [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs IF (CSI 300) - Total positions decreased slightly by 2,753 hands on May 21, with the main contract 2506 positions decreasing by 3,691 hands [5] - Among the top 20 long positions, CITIC Futures added the most long positions, with an intraday increase of 899 hands, while Haitong Futures reduced the most long positions, with an intraday decrease of 1,610 hands [6] - Among the top 20 short positions, Galaxy Futures added the most short positions, with an intraday increase of 342 hands, while CITIC Futures reduced the most short positions, with an intraday decrease of 853 hands [8] IH (SSE 50) - Total positions decreased by 1,210 hands on May 21, with the main contract 2506 positions decreasing by 842 hands [11] - Among the top 20 long positions, Haitong Futures added the most long positions, with an intraday increase of 170 hands, while Guotai Junan Futures reduced the most long positions, with an intraday decrease of 584 hands [11] - Among the top 20 short positions, Baocheng Futures added the most short positions, with an intraday increase of 240 hands, while Guotou Futures reduced the most short positions, with an intraday decrease of 388 hands [13] IC (CSI 500) - Total positions increased by 1,085 hands on May 21, while the main contract 2506 positions decreased by 1,450 hands [16] - Among the top 20 long positions, CITIC Futures added the most long positions, with an intraday increase of 865 hands, while Guoxin Futures reduced the most long positions, with an intraday decrease of 191 hands [17] - Among the top 20 short positions, Guotai Junan Futures added the most short positions, with an intraday increase of 998 hands, while Dongzheng Futures reduced the most short positions, with an intraday decrease of 569 hands [18] IM (CSI 1000) - Total positions decreased by 2,343 hands on May 21, with the main contract 2506 positions decreasing by 4,060 hands [22] - Among the top 20 long positions, CITIC Futures added the most long positions, with an intraday increase of 605 hands, while Guotai Junan Futures reduced the most long positions, with an intraday decrease of 1,435 hands [22] - Among the top 20 short positions, Huatai Futures added the most short positions, with an intraday increase of 253 hands, while Guotai Junan Futures reduced the most short positions, with an intraday decrease of 1,062 hands [23]