Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Recently, the spot price of logs has been weakening and has been adjusted downwards. The supply side has seen a continuous increase in arrivals, putting significant pressure on the market. However, the current futures price is at a relatively low level, and the obvious inversion of domestic and foreign prices forms a certain support for import costs, limiting the downward space of the futures price. Overall, in the context of weak supply and demand, the log futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: On November 17th, compared with November 14th, the price of log 2601 increased by 0.5 yuan to 789 yuan, with a growth rate of 0.06%; the price of log 2603 increased by 3.5 yuan to 799 yuan, with a growth rate of 0.44%; the price of log 2605 decreased by 0.5 yuan to 809.5 yuan, with a decline rate of -0.06%. The price of log 2511 remained unchanged at 740 yuan [1] - Spot prices: The spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on November 17th compared with November 14th. For example, the price of 3.9A small radiata pine in Rizhao Port was 700 yuan, and the price of 4A small radiata pine in Taicang Port was 710 yuan [1] - External quotes: The CFR prices of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter remained unchanged on November 21st compared with November 14th, at 116 US dollars/JAS cubic meter and 126 euros/JAS cubic meter respectively [1] Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on November 17th was 7.105 yuan, an increase of 0.01 yuan compared with November 16th. The import theoretical cost was 810.08 yuan, an increase of 1.22 yuan compared with November 16th [1] Supply - Monthly supply: In October, the port throughput was 201.3 million cubic meters, an increase of 24.7 million cubic meters compared with September, with a growth rate of 13.99%. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased from 46 to 54, with a growth rate of 17.39% [1] - In the week of November 17th - 23rd, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 3 compared with the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 30%; the total arrival volume was about 46.5 million cubic meters, an increase of 15 million cubic meters compared with the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 48% [2] Inventory - As of November 14th, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 295 million cubic meters, an increase of 2 million cubic meters compared with November 7th. Among them, the inventory in Shandong was 82.45 million cubic meters, with a growth rate of 2.04%, and the inventory in Jiangsu was 83.66 million cubic meters, with a growth rate of 1.46% [1][2] Demand - Weekly demand: The average daily outbound volume in China decreased from 6.63 million cubic meters on November 7th to 6.56 million cubic meters on November 14th, with a decline rate of - 1%. In Shandong, it decreased from 3.79 million cubic meters to 3.67 million cubic meters, with a decline rate of - 3%. In Jiangsu, it increased from 2.28 million cubic meters to 2.44 million cubic meters, with a growth rate of 7% [2]

Report Information - Report Title: All-variety Spread Daily Report [3] - Date: November 18, 2025 [3] - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, GF Futures Research Institute [4] Core Data Summary Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF601)**: Futures price is 5566, down 8; spot price is 5870, with a basis rate of 1.35% [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: Futures price not fully shown; spot price related to the reference has a basis rate information, and the historical quantile is 40.20% [1] - **Rebar (RB2601)**: Futures price is 3097; spot price of HRB400 20mm in Shanghai is 3220, with a basis rate of 3.97% [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: Futures price is 3310; spot price is 3302, up 0.24% [1] - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: Futures price is 789; spot price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder at Rizhao Port is 850, up 7.83% [1] - **Coke (J2601)**: Futures price is 1710; spot price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1689, up 51.73% [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: Futures price is 1301; spot price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal at Shaheyi is 1210, up 7.52% [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2512)**: Futures price is 86510; spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 86450, with a basis rate of 0.07% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2601)**: Futures price is 21725; spot price of SMM A00 aluminum is 21630, with a basis rate of 24.37% [1] - **Alumina (AO2601)**: Futures price is 2817; spot price of SMM alumina index is 2846, with a basis rate of 1.03% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2512)**: Futures price is 22330; spot price of SMM 1 zinc ingot is 22465, down 0.60% [1] - **Tin (SN2512)**: Futures price is 289900; spot price of SMM 1 tin is 290360, down 0.10% [1] - **Nickel (NI2512)**: Futures price is 117225; spot price of SMM 1 imported nickel is 116750, up 0.41% [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2601)**: Futures price is 12870; spot price is 12415, up 3.66% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2601)**: Futures price is 95200; spot price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 86150, down 9.51% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (SI2601)**: Futures price is 9500; spot price of SMM silicon is 9080, up 4.63% [1] Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2512)**: Futures price is 929.5; spot price of Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold (T + D) is 930.2, with a basis rate of 0.08% [1] - **Silver (AG2602)**: Futures price is 11933.0; spot price of Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver (T + D) is 11970.0, with a basis rate of 0.31% [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: Futures price is 3043.0; spot price of ordinary protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu is 2990, down 1.74% [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2601)**: Futures price is 8490; spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu is 8282.0, up 2.51% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: Futures price is 8680.0; spot price in Huangpu Port is 8640, down 0.46% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: Futures price is 2520; spot price of ordinary rapeseed meal in Zhanjiang, Guangdong is 2449.0, up 60.10% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (OI601)**: Futures price is 10230; spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Nantong, Jiangsu is 9880.0, up 3.54% [1] - **Corn (C2601)**: Futures price is 2230; spot price at Jinzhou Port is 2182.0, up 2.45% [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2601)**: Futures price is 2550; spot price in Changchun, Jilin is 2489.0, down 0.38% [1] - **Pig (LH2601)**: Futures price is 11695.0; spot price in Henan is 11650, down 45.0 [1] - **Egg (JD2601)**: Futures price is 3229.0; spot price in Shijiazhuang, Hebei is 2840, down 12.05% [1] - **Cotton (CF601)**: Futures price is 14579; spot price of 3128B cotton in Xinjiang is 13445.0, up 5.53% [1] - **Sugar (SR601)**: Futures price is 5760; spot price at Liuzhou Station is 5458.0, up 49.00% [1] - **Apple (AP601)**: Futures price is 8840; spot price of apple's delivery theoretical price is 9438.0, down 6.34% [1] - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: Futures price is 8900; spot price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 9270.0, down 3.99% [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Paraxylene (PX601)**: Futures price is 6796.0; spot price at China's main ports is 6805.0, with a basis rate of 0.13% [1] - **PTA (TA601)**: Futures price is 4620.0; spot price in the East China region is 4692.0, down 1.53% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: Futures price is 3938.0; spot price in the East China region is 3975.0, with a basis rate of 0.94% [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF602)**: Futures price is 6230.0; spot price in the East China market is 6295.0, up 1.04% [1] - **Styrene (EB2512)**: Futures price is 6496.0; spot price in East China is 6535.0, with a basis rate of 0.60% [1] - **Methanol (MA601)**: Futures price is 2012.0; spot price in Taicang, Jiangsu is 2029.0, down 0.84% [1] - **Urea (UR601)**: Futures price is 1590.0; spot price in Shandong is 1662.0, up 2.30% [1] - **LLDPE (L2601)**: Futures price is 6843.0; spot price in Shandong is 6925.0, up 1.20% [1] - **PP (PP2601)**: Futures price is 6467.0; spot price in Zhejiang is 6500.0, with a basis rate of 0.51% [1] - **PVC (V2601)**: Futures price is 4601.0; spot price in Changzhou is 4510.0, down 1.98% [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: Futures price is 2291.0; spot price in Shandong is 2437.5, with a basis rate of 6.39% [1] - **LPG (PG2512)**: Futures price is 4398.0; spot price in Guangzhou is 4410.0, down 0.27% [1] - **Asphalt (BU2601)**: Futures price is 3032.0; spot price in Shandong is 3020.0, down 0.40% [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2601)**: Futures price is 10455.0; spot price in East China is 10500.0, up 0.43% [1] - **Float Glass (FG601)**: Futures price is 1029.0; spot price in Shahe is 1008.0, up 70.16% [1] - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: Futures price is 1231.0; spot price in Shahe is 1181.0, down 4.23% [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: Futures price is 15315.0; spot price in Shanghai is 14800.0, down 3.48% [1] Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: - **IF2512.CFE**: Futures price is 4598.1; basis is - 16.7, down 0.36% [1] - **IH2512.CFE**: Futures price is 3009.2; basis is - 2.9, down 0.10% [1] - **IC2512.CFE**: Futures price is 7235.4; basis is - 92.0, down 1.2% [1] - **IM2512.CFE**: Futures price is 7523.1; basis is - 128.7, down 1.74% [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - **2 - year Treasury Bond (TS2512)**: Futures price is 102.48; conversion factor is 0.9765 [1] - **5 - year Treasury Bond (TF2512)**: Futures price is 105.89; conversion factor is 0.9405 [1] - **10 - year Treasury Bond (T2512)**: Futures price is 106.53; conversion factor is 0.9814 [1] - **30 - year Treasury Bond (TL2512)**: Futures price is 116.46; conversion factor is 1.1271 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a daily tracking and analysis of the positions of stock index futures, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, with details on total positions, changes in the top 20 long and short positions, and key changes in the top 20 seats [1][4][10] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs IF (CSI 300) - Total positions significantly increased, with a rise of 7845 hands on November 17, and the main contract 2512's positions rose by 4150 hands [4] - Among the top 20 long positions, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with 40208 hands. Everbright Futures had the most long - position increase (923 hands), and Dongzheng Futures had the most long - position decrease (1006 hands) [5] - Among the top 20 short positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 42956 hands. Guotai Junan Futures had the most short - position increase (981 hands), and Dongzheng Futures had the most short - position decrease (1091 hands) [7] IH (SSE 50) - Total positions slightly increased, with a rise of 3993 hands on November 17, and the main contract 2512's positions rose by 1411 hands [10] - Among the top 20 long positions, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with 13465 hands. Guoxin Futures had the most long - position increase (1145 hands), and Dongzheng Futures had the most long - position decrease (334 hands) [11] - Among the top 20 short positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 14175 hands. Guoxin Futures had the most short - position increase (600 hands), and UBS Futures had the most short - position decrease (103 hands) [12] IC (CSI 500) - Total positions remained stable, with a rise of 816 hands on November 17, and the main contract 2512's positions rose by 2905 hands [16] - Among the top 20 long positions, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with 35477 hands. CITIC Futures had the most long - position increase (852 hands), and Shenyin Wanguo Futures had the most long - position decrease (300 hands) [17] - Among the top 20 short positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 40780 hands. Dongzheng Futures had the most short - position increase (843 hands), and Zhongtai Futures had the most short - position decrease (358 hands) [19] IM (CSI 1000) - Total positions slightly decreased, with a decline of 2069 hands on November 17, while the main contract 2512's positions rose by 3608 hands [22] - Among the top 20 long positions, Guotai Junan Futures ranked first with 50555 hands. Haitong Futures had the most long - position increase (1772 hands), and Zhongtai Futures had the most long - position decrease (713 hands) [22] - Among the top 20 short positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 72303 hands. Haitong Futures had the most short - position increase (1554 hands), and Zhongtai Futures had the most short - position decrease (1057 hands) [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Tin - The current supply of tin ore remains tight, and the smelter processing fee continues to be low. Although the import volume from Myanmar has rebounded, the improvement in supply is limited. The demand in South China shows some resilience, while that in East China is suppressed. Considering the strong fundamentals, a low - buying strategy can be considered after the market sentiment stabilizes. Follow the macro - end changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [2]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon stabilizes and rises, and the futures price fluctuates. There is an arbitrage window. The supply and demand in the industrial silicon market decreased in November, with a larger decline in supply, but there is still a pressure of inventory accumulation. In December, if the organic silicon industry cuts production, the inventory accumulation pressure will increase. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [5]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon stabilizes, the demand is weak, and the battery price falls. The futures price drops significantly, and the arbitrage window closes. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and there is still an inventory accumulation expectation in each link. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. Pay attention to the spot support and the inventory pressure [6]. Copper - The market is waiting and seeing, and the copper price fluctuates weakly. The macro situation is in a "vacuum period" in November, and the supply of copper ore remains tight. The downstream psychological price ceiling for copper is rising, and the spot maintains a premium. The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the bottom of the copper price. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 85000 - 87500 [7]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is basically in a loose pattern, and the subsequent supply pressure may be limited due to the compression of smelting profits. The demand has no unexpected performance, and the domestic zinc ingot remains at a discount. The LME inventory starts to accumulate, and the risk of a short squeeze eases. The zinc ingot export window is open, which may boost the domestic zinc price. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 22000 - 22800 [10]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a loose supply - demand pattern, showing a low - level shock. The spot market has regional differentiation. The price of electrolytic aluminum is affected by macro - positive factors and weak fundamentals. It may fluctuate between the two in the short term, and there is a risk of a high - level correction above 22000 yuan/ton [12]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market adjusts with the aluminum price. The cost is strongly supported, but the supply is restricted by raw material shortages. The downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to run strongly in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 20600 - 21200 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is in a weak shock. The macro - drive and demand are insufficient, and the supply pressure remains. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 12300 - 12700. Pay attention to the steel mill's production cut and the nickel - iron price [15]. Nickel - The nickel market is weak. The macro - expectation improves, but the fundamental improvement is limited. The nickel supply is loose in the medium term, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract in the range of 116000 - 122000. Pay attention to the macro - expectation and the Indonesian industrial policy [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market runs strongly. Driven by news and fundamentals, the price rises. The supply increases slightly, the demand is optimistic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market may have more games. Be cautious about chasing high prices without positions, and wait for a pull - back [20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin decreased by 0.75%, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 671.90%. The import loss decreased by 1.62%, and the Shanghai - London ratio was stable [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, and 2602 - 2603 decreased, while that of 2603 - 2604 increased significantly [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the domestic tin ore import decreased by 15.13%, and the SMM refined tin production in October increased by 53.09%. The inventory of SHEF and social inventory increased [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of some industrial silicon products is stable, and the premium of Tongmei decreased by 12.50%. The basis of some products changed [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of 2512 - 2601 and 2601 - 2602 increased, while others changed to different extents [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% in October, and the inventory of some regions and the overall social inventory changed [5]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of polysilicon is stable, and the battery price falls. The futures price drops by 1390 yuan/ton, and the arbitrage window closes [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of some contracts changed, with the largest change in the current - month to the first - continuous contract [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: The monthly polysilicon production increased by 3.08%, and the inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [6]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The prices of various copper products decreased, and the refined - scrap spread decreased by 6.23%. The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased slightly [7]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of 2511 - 2512 and 2601 - 2602 changed [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: The electrolytic copper production in October decreased by 2.62%, and the import volume in September increased by 26.50%. The inventory of some ports and the electrolytic copper rod's operating rate changed [7]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.40%, and the import loss and the Shanghai - London ratio changed [10]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of some contracts changed [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: The refined zinc production in October increased by 2.85%, and the inventory of LME and domestic zinc ingots changed [10]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 1.28%, and the import loss and the Shanghai - London ratio changed [12]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of some contracts changed [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: The alumina production in October increased by 2.39%, and the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52%. The inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum and LME changed [12]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased by 0.46%, and the refined - scrap spread of some products decreased [13]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of some contracts changed [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of regenerated aluminum alloy ingots in October decreased by 2.42%, and the inventory of some regions and the overall social inventory changed [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel in some regions changed, and the futures - spot spread decreased by 7.14%. The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore and chromium ore changed [15]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of some contracts changed [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly, and the import and export volumes and the inventory changed [15]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel and other nickel products decreased, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased slightly. The import loss increased [18]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of some contracts changed slightly [18]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The domestic refined nickel production increased by 0.84%, and the import volume increased by 124.36%. The inventory of SHFE, social inventory, and LME increased [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate and other lithium products increased, and the lithium concentrate price also increased [20]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of some contracts changed significantly [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: The lithium carbonate production in October increased by 5.73%, and the inventory decreased [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views The reports mainly present the daily price differences, price changes, and relevant data of various financial products including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, and container shipping indices. These data can help investors understand the market trends and relative valuations of different products. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **IF, IH, IC, IM期现价差**: The latest values of IF, IH, IC, and IM期现价差 are -16.65, -2.87, -91.05, and -128.68 respectively, with changes of 11.09, 5.15, 6.11, and 2.08 compared to the previous day. Their historical 1 - year percentiles are 47.90%, 39.30%, 27.40%, and 65.00% respectively, and the full - historical percentiles are 27.20%, 41.40%, 4.50%, and 14.30% respectively [1]. - **IF, IH, IC, IM跨期价差**: Different combinations of IF, IH, IC, and IM跨期价差 show various values, changes, and percentiles. For example, the IF跨期价差 of “次月 - 当月” is -14.40, with a change of -0.80, a historical 1 - year percentile of 29.00%, and a full - historical percentile of 29.60% [1]. - **跨品种比值**: Ratios such as “中证500/沪深300”, “IC/IF” etc. are presented, with corresponding changes and percentiles. For instance, “中证500/沪深300” is 1.5736, with a change of 0.0102, a historical 1 - year percentile of 90.10%, and a full - historical percentile of 67.90% [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **基差**: The latest values of TS, TF, T, and TL基差 are 1.6915, 1.5952, 0.0842, and 1.9316 respectively, with changes of -0.0256, -0.0166, -0.0315, and -0.0414 compared to the previous day. Their percentiles since listing are 32.00%, 42.70%, 52.60%, and 71.30% respectively [3]. - **跨期价差**: Different combinations of TS, TF, T, and TL跨期价差 have different values, changes, and percentiles. For example, the TS跨期价差 of “当季 - 下季” is 0.0640, with a change of 0.0080 and a percentile of 37.50% [3]. - **跨品种价差**: Values and changes of “TS - TF”, “TS - T” etc. are provided. For example, “TS - TF” is -3.4250, with a change of -0.0040 and a percentile of 10.60% [3]. Precious Metals - **期货收盘价**: The 11 - 17 closing prices of AU2512 and AG2512 contracts are 929.46 and 11933 respectively, with changes of -23.74 (-2.49%) and -418 (-3.38%) compared to 11 - 14. The 11 - 17 closing prices of COMEX黄金 and silver主力 contracts are 4045.10 and 50.05 respectively, with changes of -39.30 (-0.96%) and -0.35 (-0.69%) compared to 11 - 14 [5]. - **现货价格**: The 11 - 17 prices of London gold and silver are 4044.51 and 50.18 respectively, with changes of -37.65 (-0.92%) and -0.34 (-0.67%) compared to 11 - 14. The 11 - 17 prices of gold and silver TD are 930.22 and 11970 respectively, with changes of -17.76 (-1.87%) and -356 (-2.89%) compared to 11 - 14 [5]. - **基差**: The values, changes, and historical 1 - year percentiles of “黄金TD - 沪金主力”, “白银TD - 沪银主力” etc. are given. For example, “黄金TD - 沪金主力” is 0.76, with a change from -5.22 and a historical 1 - year percentile of 96.70% [5]. - **比值、利率与汇率、库存与持仓**: Ratios like “COMEX金/银”, “上期所金/银”, interest rates of 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury bonds, dollar index, and inventory and持仓 data of precious metals are presented with corresponding changes [5]. Container Shipping - **集运指数**: The 11 - 17 values of SCFIS (European route) and SCFIS (US West route) are 1357.67 and 1238.42 respectively, with changes of -147.1 (-9.78%) and -91.3 (-6.87%) compared to 11 - 10. The 11 - 14 values of SCFI综合指数, SCFI (European), and SCFI (US West) etc. are also provided with corresponding changes [7]. - **期货价格及基差**: The 11 - 13 prices of EC2602, EC2604 etc. contracts are presented with changes compared to 11 - 12. The 11 - 13基差(主力) is -125.4, with a change of -11.0 compared to the previous value [7]. - **基本面数据**: Data on global container运力供给, Shanghai port准班率, 港口挂靠情况, monthly出口舍额, overseas economic indicators such as eurozone综合PMI, EU consumer confidence index, US制造业PM指数, and OECD综合领先指标 are provided with their respective changes [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyolefins - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and inventory slightly accumulating under new - capacity pressure. PE shows increased supply and decreased demand, with abundant imported goods and weakening demand except for agricultural film. It is recommended to gradually stop losses and reduce positions on previous short positions near the previous low, and the market is expected to have limited rebound space [2]. Methanol - In the inland market, Baofeng continues to purchase externally, and Jiutai has unexpected maintenance. Iranian gas restrictions are postponed, and shipments are accelerating, putting pressure on the port methanol market. The market is trading under the "weak reality" logic, and the 01 - contract inventory contradiction cannot be resolved. It is recommended to pay attention to the marginal device operation [4]. Crude Oil - The short - term crude oil market has no clear direction. The continuous sanctions on Russia by Europe and the United States and the attacks on Russian refineries by Ukrainian drones support the oil price, but the continuous production increase of OPEC+ and the record - high US crude oil production limit the rebound space. Brent oil is expected to fluctuate between 60 - 66 dollars per barrel [7]. Natural Rubber - Supply - side factors such as cold weather in Yunnan and continuous rainy season in southern Thailand may keep raw material prices high. Demand is weak, and the market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation. If raw material supply is smooth, there may be further downward space; otherwise, the rubber price is expected to run between 15000 - 15500 [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to be relatively loose, with limited demand support and high port inventory. The short - term rebound space of BZ2603 is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see. Styrene's supply - demand situation has improved in November, but the rebound space is also limited, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 6600 - 6700 for EB12 [11]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash has an overall surplus pattern, with high production and inventory transfer to the middle and lower reaches. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Glass has short - term rigid demand support but faces long - term demand contraction pressure, and it is expected to be weak in the medium - term [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply remains at a relatively high level, and the short - term demand has support, but the rebound sustainability is insufficient. PTA is expected to be in a tight balance in November and loose in the future. MEG is expected to have inventory accumulation, and short - fiber and bottle - chip also face supply - demand challenges [13]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda has supply - demand pressure, with weak demand from the alumina industry, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. PVC is in an oversupply situation, with weak demand and limited upward driving force [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 prices decreased slightly. L15 and PP15 spreads increased. Spot prices of some products decreased, and some basis values changed [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE and PP enterprise inventories increased, and social inventories of PE decreased. The PE and PP device and downstream weighted开工率 showed different trends [2]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices decreased. Some basis values and regional spreads changed. Methanol enterprise inventory decreased, while port and social inventories increased [4]. - **开工率**: Domestic and overseas upstream enterprise开工率 increased, while some downstream开工率 decreased [4]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices had different changes. Some spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 decreased [7]. - **Product Prices**: Some refined product prices such as NYM RBOB decreased, while NYM ULSD increased [7]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: Some spot prices such as Yunnan state - owned whole - latex remained unchanged, and some spreads changed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Production in some countries decreased, while China's production increased. Tire production and export showed different trends, and import volume increased [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Crude oil, naphtha, and other prices changed, and some spreads such as pure benzene - naphtha increased [11]. - **Benzene - Styrene Prices and Spreads**: Benzene - styrene prices increased, and some spreads and cash - flows changed [11]. - **Downstream Cash - flows and开工率**: Cash - flows of some downstream products changed, and the开工率 of some products also changed [11]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash futures and spot prices had different changes, and some basis values changed [12]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda ash production and开工率 decreased, and glass melting volume remained unchanged. Inventories of glass and soda ash increased [12]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Crude oil, naphtha, and other prices changed [13]. - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash - flows**: Prices and cash - flows of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed [13]. - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: PX, PTA, and MEG prices, spreads, and开工率 had different changes, and MEG port inventory and arrival expectations were also provided [13]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda futures and spot prices changed, and some spreads and basis values changed [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply - side开工率 of PVC and caustic soda changed, and demand - side downstream开工率 also changed. Inventories of PVC and caustic soda decreased [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are mentioned in the provided reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil is expected to maintain low - level volatility or weak rebounds due to concerns about slowing exports. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures will fluctuate between 8600 - 8700 yuan, and there is pressure to weaken further. Port inventories are expected to rise as demand weakens with falling temperatures [1]. - For soybean oil, the 2025/26 US soybean oil supply is up, but the ending stocks are down. This supports CBOT soybean oil. In China, spot prices rose slightly, and the basis was stable. Factory soybean oil inventories changed little, with a balance between production and demand [1]. 2.2 Pig Industry - Spot pig prices are weak. The market is actively selling pigs, and slaughterhouses have no difficulty in procurement, suppressing prices. The market is in a weak range - bound pattern. The 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be continued [3]. 2.3 Meal Industry - The USDA's November supply - demand balance sheet was in line with market expectations. US soybeans lack substantial bullish factors and face difficulties in continuing to rise. China's 13% tariff on US soybeans affects exports. Domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and prices will maintain wide - range fluctuations [8]. 2.4 Corn Industry - In the corn market, prices in the Northeast are strong due to increased stocking, and those in North China are stable as the number of delivery vehicles to deep - processing plants increases. There is a selling pressure expectation due to a bumper harvest. The demand side shows good deep - processing profits and limited feed - end restocking. Corn prices may have a limited rebound [10]. 2.5 Sugar Industry - India allows 25/26 sugar exports of 1.5 million tons, but short - term exports may be difficult. Brazil is approaching the end of the harvest, with a loose supply. The raw sugar price is expected to consolidate around 14 cents/pound. The sugar market is expected to maintain a volatile trend this week [14]. 2.6 Cotton Industry - The November USDA cotton supply - demand balance sheet is bearish. Globally, production increased significantly while demand increased slightly, and ending stocks rose. In China, new cotton listings bring short - term pressure, and downstream demand is weak overall, but some products support cotton prices. Short - term cotton prices may be under pressure [15]. 2.7 Egg Industry - The number of laying hens in production remains high, and the supply is loose. The market is in a seasonal off - peak period, and demand is weak. Although the decline in egg prices has not widened, there is insufficient positive support. The market is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern, and short positions in the near - month contracts can be gradually closed [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The 2025/26 US soybean oil supply is adjusted to 32.276 billion pounds. Ending stocks are down 1.4% year - on - year. In China, the spot price rose slightly, and the basis was stable. Factory inventories changed little [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Affected by export concerns, it will maintain low - level volatility. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures will fluctuate between 8600 - 8700 yuan. Port inventories are expected to rise [1]. - **Price and Spread Changes**: The basis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil changed, and there were also changes in cross - period spreads and inter - variety spreads [1]. 3.2 Pig Industry - **Futures Indicators**: The main contract basis decreased by 120.00%, and the prices of pig 2605 and pig 2601 decreased by 0.45% and 0.68% respectively [3]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in various regions decreased, with the largest decline of 400 yuan/ton in Guangdong [3]. - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume increased slightly by 0.05%, and the self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits decreased by 28.70% and 17.15% respectively [3]. 3.3 Meal Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans changed. The basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal also had significant changes [8]. - **Market Situation**: The USDA's report was in line with expectations. US soybeans lack bullish factors, and China's tariff affects exports. Domestic soybean meal supply is loose [8]. 3.4 Corn Industry - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 decreased slightly, and the basis increased by 92.00%. The north - south trade profit decreased by 34.48% [10]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 decreased by 0.64%, and the basis increased by 320.00% [10]. 3.5 Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2601 and sugar 2605 decreased by 0.22% and 0.11% respectively, and the ICE raw sugar main contract decreased by 0.67% [14]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning decreased by 1.06%, and that in Kunming increased by 0.54%. Imported sugar prices from Brazil increased [14]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, but the national sales rate decreased. Industrial inventories in some regions increased, and imports increased [14]. 3.6 Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of cotton 2605 and cotton 2601 decreased slightly, and the ICE US cotton main contract increased slightly [15]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Xinjiang cotton and the CC Index decreased slightly, while the difference between the CC Index and the FC Index increased [15]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial and industrial inventories increased, imports increased, but textile exports decreased [15]. 3.7 Egg Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of egg 12 and egg 01 contracts decreased, and the spot price in the production area decreased by 0.82% [17]. - **Related Indicators**: Egg - to - feed ratio increased by 2.56%, and the breeding profit increased by 13.05% [17]. - **Market Situation**: The number of laying hens in production is high, supply is loose, and demand is weak in the short term [17][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel market shows mixed trends. The daily average hot metal output increased, but the production of five major steel products decreased. The supply - demand of rebar is relatively balanced after production and inventory reduction, while the supply - demand of hot - rolled coils is basically balanced with high - level inventory. There is a negative feedback basis in the iron element chain, and it is not recommended to go long. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar will continue to converge. It is advisable to close the long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage. A short - side attempt can be made on a single - side basis [2]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore futures continued to rebound. The global shipment volume increased this week, and the port arrival volume decreased, but the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to rise. The demand side shows a weakening trend. The port inventory is accumulating, but the inventory of deliverable products is low. It is expected that the iron ore will show a high - level oscillating trend, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended for single - side trading [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - The coke and coking coal markets are also complex. The coking coal futures showed a low - level oscillating trend and a sharp decline at night. The coke futures followed the coking coal to fall at night. The spot prices of coking coal and coke are still at a high level this year, but the futures are under pressure. It is recommended to take a bearish view on single - side trading with a wait - and - see approach [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally rose. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased from 3190 yuan/ton to 3220 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price of rebar increased from 3105 yuan/ton to 3147 yuan/ton. Meanwhile, the profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, with the East China hot - rolled coil profit dropping from - 68 to - 94 yuan/ton [2]. Production - The daily average hot metal output increased by 2.6 to 236.8, a 1.1% rise. The production of five major steel products decreased by 22.4 to 834.4, a 2.6% decline. The rebar production decreased by 8.2 to 200.0, a 4.1% decline, and the hot - rolled coil production decreased by 4.5 to 313.7, a 1.4% decline [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 26.2 to 1477.4, a 1.7% decline. The rebar inventory decreased by 16.4 to 576.2, a 2.8% decline, while the hot - rolled coil inventory remained basically unchanged [2]. Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 3.0 to 13.4, a 28.4% rise. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 6.3 to 860.6, a 0.7% decline. The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 2.2 to 216.4, a 1.0% decline, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils decreased by 0.7 to 313.6, a 0.2% decline [2]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of some iron ore varieties in Rizhao Port increased, such as the price of Carajás fines increasing from 882.0 yuan/ton to 892.0 yuan/ton. The basis of some varieties changed, and the spreads between different contracts also showed different trends, like the 1 - 5 spread increasing from 27.0 to 29.0 [4]. Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrival volume decreased by 472.3 to 2268.9, a 17.2% decline, while the global weekly shipment volume increased by 447.4 to 3516.4, a 14.6% rise. The monthly national import volume increased by 1111.6 to 11632.6, a 10.6% rise [4]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.7 to 236.9, a 1.1% rise. The daily average port ore - clearing volume increased by 6.0 to 327.0, a 1.9% rise. The monthly national pig iron output decreased by 49.6 to 6555.0, a 0.8% decline, and the monthly national crude steel output decreased by 149.0 to 7200.0, a 2.0% decline [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased slightly by 1.5 to 15129.71, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 66.1 to 9076.0, a 0.7% rise [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) increased by 51 to 1713, a 3.1% rise, while the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) decreased by 11 to 1689, a 0.6% decline. The price of coking coal in some regions remained stable [8]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.6 to 63.0, a 0.9% decline, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.1 to 46.2, a 0.2% rise. The production of raw coal and clean coal in coal mines increased [8]. Demand - The hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased, which is the demand for coke. The demand for coking coal is related to the production of coke [8]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased slightly, and the coking coal inventory showed different trends in different sectors, with some increasing and some decreasing [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The caustic soda industry still faces certain supply - demand pressures. The purchasing enthusiasm of the main downstream alumina has declined, and the long - term supply - demand remains under pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly. For PVC, the supply - demand is in an oversupply situation, and the price is hard to be optimistic, with an expected continuation of the bottom - weakening pattern. Futures strategies suggest a bearish approach, and option strategies suggest waiting and seeing [2][3][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Caustic Soda - **Price and Market Situation**: The caustic soda futures price has shown various trends due to factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand changes, and cost fluctuations. The spot price has also been affected by factors like alumina demand and enterprise profit. For example, the Shandong liquid chlorine price going negative has impacted enterprise profits, and the price has support at the 2350 level [8]. - **Supply**: The national average weekly weighted operating load rate of sample enterprises was 89.79%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points from last week. The caustic soda output in terms of 100% purity was 86.62 tons, a 0.08% decrease from last week. Some chlor - alkali plants reduced production due to maintenance or breakdowns. There are also many maintenance plans for caustic soda plants in different regions [27][28]. - **Demand**: Alumina is the main downstream of caustic soda. From the end of 2024 to 2025, there are plans to put into production 12.3 million tons of alumina capacity (including 2 million tons of replacement), with an estimated annual production increase of about 6%. The new alumina capacity is expected to increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year. However, the alumina industry currently has poor profits, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term, with a price range of 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton. Non - aluminum downstream industries such as printing, dyeing, and textiles also have weak demand [32][33][36]. - **Export**: In September, the export profit of caustic soda increased, and the export volume rebounded significantly. However, it is estimated that the export profit will decline later [57]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price and Market Situation**: The PVC futures price has continued to decline due to the lack of positive supply - demand drivers and a poor commodity market atmosphere. The spot price has also been weak, with the core issue being the lack of substantial improvement in supply - demand [64][65]. - **Profit**: The industry profit of PVC has been deteriorating, including the profits of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in the East China region, as well as the marginal integrated profit and northwest integrated profit [70]. - **Supply**: The domestic PVC powder industry's operating load rate decreased this week. There were 2 new planned maintenance devices, and the overall maintenance loss increased. The overall operating load rate of PVC powder was 76.71%, a decrease of 2.57 percentage points from last week. Among them, the operating load rate of calcium carbide - based PVC powder was 79.57%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, and that of ethylene - based PVC powder was 70.13%, a decrease of 7.1 percentage points [84]. - **Demand**: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real estate industry, which is the main demand source, is still in the bottom - building period, and the demand is expected to continue to be negative. The domestic demand has not improved significantly, and the downstream orders are significantly lower than the average level of the past five years, with high raw material and finished - product inventories [96]. - **Inventory**: The PVC inventory has decreased slightly, but the total inventory is still at the highest level in recent years compared year - on - year [104]. - **Export**: In September 2025, the PVC import volume was 14,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 16.08% and a year - on - year increase of 7.73%. The export volume was 346,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 21.945% and a year - on - year increase of 24.53% [122].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-shares continue to fluctuate narrowly, with domestic stock index showing strong resilience. After the release of the third - quarter reports, A - shares are in a repricing adjustment, with limited downside risks. The bond market pricing is rather entangled and may continue to fluctuate narrowly. Precious metals maintain a weak - side fluctuation. Different varieties in other sectors have their own trends and corresponding operation suggestions [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: TMT rotates upwards, and A - shares continue to fluctuate narrowly. It is recommended to wait and see mainly. If there is a deep decline on a single day, a bull spread of put options can be arranged [3]. - **Treasury Bond**: The equity market declines, and the bond futures fluctuate strongly. In the short - term, the bond market may continue to fluctuate narrowly. It is recommended to operate within the range for the unilateral strategy [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices may seek to stabilize around $4000 (925 yuan), and it is recommended to buy on dips. Silver follows the gold price, and it is recommended to try long positions on dips with a light position [3]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract rises and is expected to fluctuate upwards in the short - term [3]. - **Steel**: For steel, it is recommended to hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils and wait and see on the unilateral side. Iron ore fluctuates, and it is recommended to wait and see unilaterally within the range of 750 - 800. Coking coal and coke are considered to have a downward - biased fluctuation, with reference ranges of 1100 - 1250 and 1600 - 1750 respectively [3]. Non - ferrous Metals Sector - Copper fluctuates, with the main contract referring to 85000 - 87500. Aluminum oxide fluctuates at a low level, waiting for new trading drivers. Aluminum breaks through the 22000 mark and then adjusts downward, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Other non - ferrous metal varieties also have their own price ranges and operation suggestions [3]. New Energy Sector - Polysilicon futures fluctuate downward, with a price range of 50000 - 58000. Lithium carbonate has multiple contracts hitting the daily limit, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Different chemical products such as PX, PTA, short - fiber, etc. have their own price trends and corresponding operation suggestions, including waiting and seeing, operating within the range, and doing arbitrage [3]. Agricultural Products Sector - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, hogs, corn, etc. have their own price trends. For example, hogs are expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 spread arbitrage. Corn rebounds and fluctuates, and attention should be paid to the pressure level around 2200 [3].