| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年4月14日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3160 | 3170 | -10 | -4 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3190 | 3210 | -20 | 26 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3250 | 3270 | -20 | 86 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3050 | 3061 | -11 | 110 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3131 | 3139 | -8 | 29 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3164 | 3171 | -7 | -4 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3250 | 3280 | -30 | -19 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3230 | 3240 | -10 | -3d | | | 热卷现货( ...

| 业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 〔2011〕 1292号 | | | | 纪元菲 Z0013180 | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 4月11日 | 4月10日 | 消费 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | 10100 | 10150 | -50 | -0.49% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | ୧୩5 | રેત્રે ર | 50 | 8.40% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 10900 | 10900 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/肥 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | 645 | ર્ત્વર | 100 | 18.35% | | | 新疆99硅 | d350 | a350 | O | 0.00% | | | 基差(新疆) | ୧୦୧ | રેતેર | 100 | 16.81% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 4月11日 | 4月10日 | 消歧失 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 2504-25 ...

式"。 生猪产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年4月14日 朱迪 Z0015979 | 品种 | 4月11日 | 4月10日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约基本 | 455 | 405 | 50 | 12.35% | | | 生猪2505 | 13380 | 13290 | 90 | 0.68% | 元/吨 | | 生猪2509 | 14345 | 14295 | 50 | 0.35% | | | 生猪5-9价差 | ે છે ર | 1005 | -40 | -3.98% | | | 主力合约持仓 | 66536 | 64927 | 1600 | 2.48% | 主 | | 0年 | 0 | 0 | | | | | 盘面猪料比价 | 2.29 | 2.28 | 0.01 | 0.37% | - | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 品种 | 4月11日 | 4月10日 | 涨跌 | 当地升贴水 | 单位 | | 河南 | 14800 | 14700 | 100.0 | ...

欢迎关注微信公众号 | 板块 | 品种 | 主力合约 | 点评 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | IF2506 | | 指数仍处低位,但短期难以回补缺口,关注后续国 | | | 股指 | IH2506 | 关税冲突有降温迹象,风险资产集体回升 | 内对冲政策情况带来修复机会;期权方面可采取牛 | | | | IC2506 | | 市价差策略,卖出虚两档看涨期权买入平值期权捕 | | | | IM2506 | | 提温和修复收益 | | | | 12506 | 目前关税冲击对债市的利好或尚未释放完毕,但随着国债利率 | 单边策略上,建议投资者短期多单持有,关注政策 | | | 国债 | TF2506 TS2506 | 接近年内前低,长债利率进一步下行暂缓,或需要内外政策进 | 走向。期现策略上,可关注TF\TS品种的正套策略 | | 金融 | | TL2506 | -步明确来破局,短期行情或窄幅震荡等待催化。 | 和基差做阔策略 | | | | AU2506 | 关税政策对美元资产打击进一步加剧 避险需求强烈驱动黄金创 | 避险情绪下金价有望突破320 ...

| 天然橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年4月11日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 4月10日 | 4月9日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国富全乱胶(SCRWF):下海 | 14750 | 14750 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 全乳基差 (切换至2509合约) | -225 | 420 | -645 | -153.57% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 14550 | 14000 | 220 | 3.93% | | | 非标价差 | -425 | -330 | -05 | -28.79% | | | 品种 | 4月10日 | 4月9日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 46.95 | 47.50 | -0.55 | -1.16% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 57.50 | 57.50 ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年4月11日 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 价差 | 品种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | | | F期现价差 | -62.12 | 10.68 | 1.60% | 3.50% | | 期现价差 | H期现价差 | -30.42 | 2.48 | 4.50% | 2.30% | | | IC期现价差 | -35.06 | 17.51 | 22.90% | 35.10% | | | IM期现价差 | -206.39 | 16.34 | 25.00% | 0.70% | | | 次月-当月 | -12.40 | 2.40 | 18.80% | 31.30% | | | 季月-当月 | -39.20 | 1.80 | 9.00% | 26.40% | | | 远月-当月 | -88.20 | 1.40 | 1.20% | 20.90% | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply pressure of logs remained in early April. It is expected that the arrival of logs will improve marginally from the middle of April. If the inventory reduction intensifies later and considering the current low price level, there may be short - term rebound space. However, the decline in spot prices is dragging down the futures market, and the entry into the off - season for shipments in May will suppress the rebound. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 810 - 850 yuan. Also, the tariff upgrade has led to weak macro - sentiment and increased market uncertainty [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On April 10, compared with April 9, the prices of log futures contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 all increased, with increases of 6.0 yuan (0.73%), 5.5 yuan (0.66%), and 8.0 yuan (0.95%) respectively. The 7 - 9, 9 - 11, and 7 - 11 spreads and the 07, 09, 11 contract basis all changed [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on April 10 compared with April 9. The CFR price of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A decreased by 1 US dollar/JAS cubic meter (- 0.87%), while the CFR price of spruce 11.8 - meter remained unchanged [2]. - **Import Cost**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased from 7.387 to 7.356, and the import theoretical cost decreased by 10.49 yuan (- 1%) to 823.82 yuan [2]. Supply - **Monthly Supply**: From December 31 to February 28, the port shipping volume increased by 66.8 million cubic meters (50.98%) to 197.9 million cubic meters, and the number of ships at the port increased by 9 (18.37%) to 58 [2]. - **Inventory**: As of April 4, the total inventory of main ports in China was 359 million cubic meters, a decrease of 1 million cubic meters (- 0.28%) compared with March 28. In Shandong, it increased by 9.0 million cubic meters (4.74%), while in Jiangsu, it decreased by 7.8 million cubic meters (- 6.06%) [2][3]. Demand - **Daily Average Out - bound Volume**: As of April 4, the daily average out - bound volume of logs in China was 7.16 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.46 million cubic meters (7%) compared with March 28. In Shandong, it increased by 0.93 million cubic meters (28%), while in Jiangsu, it decreased by 0.42 million cubic meters (- 15%) [3].

美国关税等问题重挫美元资产，避险需求驱动金价创新高 4 月以来在特朗普政府反复不定的关税政策影响下，金融市场在期初剧烈的动荡后对其政策措施 背后的意图逐渐清晰。在年内巨大的美债到期压力下，一方面美国政府财政承受高额的利息支付且希 望通过关税来补充财政收入，另一方面，特朗普政府或寄望于通过关税来威胁其他国家回到谈判席上， 通过加大购买美债规模来换取关税的豁免。然而在中国等经济体坚决反制的态度下，后续各国与美国 之间将展开繁琐的谈判，美联储则明确对于降息保持谨慎，希望确保关税不会引发持久通胀才会有下 一步行动，投资者意识到未来到 6 月市场将面临巨大的不确定性，美元资产面临较大抛售压力，特别 是美债拍卖结果成为焦点，得标利率整体较前期上升反映需求难以改善，流动性收紧导致股债汇同时 下挫，10 年期美债期货价格跌至 2 月底以来新低，VIX 波动率指数维持在高位。 | | | 广发期货有限公司提醒广大投资者：期市有风险 入市需谨慎 Page 1 数据来源：文华财经 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292 号 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格编号：Z0016628） 电话：020-88818051 邮箱：yeqianni ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US announcement of a 90 - day tariff suspension and a reduction of tariff rates to 10% for non - retaliatory countries alleviated market pessimism about global export trade, leading to a rebound in EC contract valuations. However, the 10% tariff still suppresses trade demand, and the market is affected by the uncertainty of the Trump administration's tariff policy. Investors are advised to operate cautiously in the short term [2][4][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotation - On April 10, the main EC contract for container shipping to Europe opened at 1911.2 points, then slightly declined and closed at 1886 points, with a daily increase of 14.47%. On the morning of the 11th, EC2506 opened slightly lower and weakened [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - The US tariff suspension and reduction measures alleviated market pessimism about global export trade. The previous tariff policy made the market extremely pessimistic about the shipping supply - demand prospects during the June and August peak seasons, resulting in a significant discount in EC contract valuations. After the announcement, the market's expectation of peak - season demand was quickly repaired, and contract valuations rebounded [2] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - In terms of quotes, the April quotes of leading airlines this week were relatively flat. As of April 10, Maersk's quotes were 1084 - 1517 dollars/TEU and 1805 - 2294 dollars/TEU; CMA's were 1385 - 2385 dollars/TEU and 2345 - 4545 dollars/TEU; MSC's were 143 dollars/TEU and 2390 dollars/TEU; ONE's were 1231 - 2191 dollars/TEU and 1537 - 2137 dollars/TEU; EMC's were 1455 - 2155 dollars/TEU and 2360 - 3560 dollars/TEU. As of April 11, the global container total capacity was 32.05 million TEU, a year - on - year increase of 9.32%. In terms of demand, the eurozone's March composite PMI was 50.9, manufacturing PMI was 48.6, and service PMI was 51; the US March manufacturing PMI index was 49, and the new order index was 45.2, a significant decline. The March OECD leading index for the G7 group was 100.47 [3] - Global freight demand remains cold. The 10% tariff still suppresses trade demand. April is the turning point between the off - season and peak season, and demand will gradually pick up from May. The price in March and April is the traditional seasonal low. In late April, MSC will suspend a large ship, reducing supply compared to the early part of the month, but it is expected to have little impact on prices due to the lack of improvement in demand [4] 3.4 Future Outlook - If the US continues to send signals of tariff relaxation, the prices of EC contracts during the June and August peak seasons are expected to recover to around 2000 points. However, the Trump administration's tariff policy is changeable, and there is great uncertainty. Investors are advised to operate cautiously in the short term and wait for the digestion of macro - disturbances [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Tin - Short - term macro sentiment improves, tin price rebounds, but with Congo - Kinshasa's resumption of production, the supply side is gradually repaired, and the US tariff affects demand expectations. Maintain a bearish view on the rebound of tin prices and follow up on the production dynamics of Burmese tin mines [1]. Nickel - Recently, the trading logic of the nickel market is macro - dominated. The price has fallen below the integrated cost of high - grade nickel matte, and the cost support at the bottom has been strengthened. In the short term, under macro uncertainty and relatively low valuation, the market is expected to fluctuate widely. Wait for the macro sentiment to subside and the market to return to fundamental trading [2]. Stainless Steel - The short - term supply of stainless steel is relatively loose, demand has certain resilience but recovers slowly, and inventory is high with pressure. Affected by the international macro situation, the short - term macro impact has not subsided, and the market is expected to run weakly. The operating range of the main contract is adjusted downward to 12,400 - 13,000 [4]. Zinc - The supply side of zinc shows a continuous loosening trend in the ore end. The demand side is relatively stable, but under tariff pressure, the zinc price is under pressure. After the suspension of the reciprocal tariff policy, the tariff pressure is slightly relieved. In the short term, the price is weak, and attention should be paid to the recovery of peak - season demand and domestic policy support [6]. Aluminum - For alumina, the supply side has high - level operating capacity, and the demand is stable with limited increments. The inventory is in the accumulation stage, and the price is supported by phased production cuts. For electrolytic aluminum, the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate is slowly increasing, and the terminal consumption recovery is slow. The overseas reciprocal tariff policy is suspended, and the macro pressure is slightly relieved. It is recommended to pay attention to cost changes and capacity operation and temporarily wait and see [8]. Copper - Macro factors such as the repeated US reciprocal tariff policy increase copper price fluctuations. Fundamentally, the continuous decline of TC in the early stage of copper ore supports the price. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate, and the reference range for the main contract is 73,000 - 76,000 [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate lack positive factors. The supply pressure is clear, demand is generally stable, and inventory is high. Under the influence of tariff policies, the export of energy - storage orders may decline. In the short term, the market is expected to run weakly, and a bearish trading strategy is recommended, with the main contract referring to 68,000 - 72,000 [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price is 256,200 yuan/ton, down 0.97%; SMM 1 tin premium is 1,700 yuan/ton, up 61.90%; LME 0 - 3 premium is - 110.00 dollars/ton, down 320.00% [1]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122,025 yuan/ton, up 1.03%; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 3,200 yuan/ton, down 4.48%; LME 0 - 3 is - 175 dollars/ton, up 16.28% [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13,250 yuan/ton, down 0.75%; the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,960 yuan/ton, up 3.42%; the premium is 310 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton [6]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 19,880 yuan/ton, up 1.79%; SMM A00 aluminum premium is 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [8]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 75,105 yuan/ton, up 3.84%; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is - 60 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,750 yuan/ton, up 0.49%; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 69,800 yuan/ton, up 0.50% [11]. Inter - month Spreads - **Tin**: The spread between 2504 - 2505 is - 200 yuan/ton, up 77.01% compared with the previous value; the spread between 2505 - 2506 is 140 yuan/ton, down 92.86% [1]. - **Nickel**: The spread between 2505 - 2506 is - 10 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton compared with the previous value; the spread between 2506 - 2507 is - 70 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spread between 2505 - 2506 is - 80 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the spread between 2506 - 2507 is - 25 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The spread between 2504 - 2505 is 285 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the spread between 2505 - 2506 is 230 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [6]. - **Aluminum**: The spread between 2504 - 2505 is 15 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton; the spread between 2505 - 2506 is 50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [8]. - **Copper**: The spread between 2504 - 2505 is 100 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the spread between 2505 - 2506 is 80 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spread between 2504 - 2505 is 160 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton; the spread between 2505 - 2506 is - 180 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data Tin - In February, the import of tin ore was 8,745 tons, down 11.15% year - on - year; the output of refined tin was 14,050 tons, down 10.45%; the import volume of refined tin was 1,869 tons, down 19.92%; the export volume was 2,373 tons, up 11.36% [1]. Nickel - China's refined nickel output in a certain period was 28,320 tons, down 5.69%; the import volume was 18,897 tons, up 99.27% [2]. Stainless Steel - The output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 enterprises) was 344.01 million tons, up 11.37%; the output of Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (Qinglong) was 42.00 million tons, down 6.67% [4]. Zinc - In March, the output of refined zinc was 54.69 million tons, up 13.70%; in February, the import volume was 3.37 million tons, down 15.27%; the export volume was 0.04 million tons, down 91.04% [6]. Aluminum - In March, the output of alumina was 754.90 million tons, up 8.85%; the output of electrolytic aluminum was 371.42 million tons, up 11.22% [8]. Copper - In March, the output of electrolytic copper was 112.21 million tons, up 6.04%; in February, the import volume was 26.80 million tons, up 0.85% [9]. Lithium Carbonate - In March, the output of lithium carbonate was 79,065 tons, up 23.44%; the demand was 86,951 tons, up 15.02%; in February, the import volume was 12,328 tons, down 38.73%; the export volume was 417 tons, up 4.65% [11]. Inventory Changes Tin - SHEF weekly inventory was 9,872.0 tons, up 6.67%; social inventory was 12,004.0 tons, up 4.55%; SHEF daily warehouse receipts were 9,295.0 tons, down 2.35%; LME daily inventory was 3,195.0 tons, down 0.78% [1]. Nickel - SHFE inventory was 36,925 tons, up 14.13%; social inventory was 47,423 tons, up 0.67%; bonded - area inventory was 6,300 tons, unchanged; LME inventory was 203,646 tons, up 0.38%; SHFE warehouse receipts were 24,452 tons, down 3.50% [2]. Stainless Steel - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) was 56.58 million tons, up 0.53%; the 300 - series cold - rolled social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) was 38.33 million tons, up 1.13%; SHFE warehouse receipts were 20.00 million tons, down 0.63% [4]. Zinc - The seven - region social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots was 10.21 million tons, down 6.42%; LME inventory was 12.2 million tons, down 1.10% [6]. Aluminum - The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum was 74.40 million tons, down 2.75%; LME inventory was 44.6 million tons, down 0.71% [8]. Copper - The domestic social inventory was 26.72 million tons, down 14.80%; the bonded - area inventory was 9.16 million tons, down 4.18%; SHFE inventory was 22.57 million tons, down 4.06%; LME inventory was 20.94 million tons, down 1.18%; COMEX inventory was 11.17 million tons, up 4.22%; SHFE warehouse receipts were 8.95 million tons, down 8.08% [9]. Lithium Carbonate - In March, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 90,070 tons, up 16.79%; the downstream inventory was 39,293 tons, up 27.94%; the smelter inventory was 50,777 tons, up 9.40% [11].