Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA supply is shrinking, but its processing fee remains low due to over - capacity from new device production. With the end of the peak season and concerns about trade - war impacts on textile demand, PTA's operating rate may decline further, and it's difficult to have an independent market due to falling crude oil prices [2] - For ethylene glycol, port inventory in East China is low, but domestic device production and expected decline in overseas imports put pressure on prices. With the end of the polyester peak season and a weakening crude oil fundamental, polyester is expected to run weakly [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Data Changes - INE crude oil rose from 435.8 yuan/barrel on Oct 20, 2025, to 437.7 yuan/barrel on Oct 21, 2025, an increase of 1.9 yuan [2] - PTA - SC increased from 1217.0 yuan/ton to 1233.2 yuan/ton, up 16.19 yuan; PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.3843 to 1.3877, an increase of 0.0034 [2] - CFR China PX increased from 783 to 784, and PX - naphtha spread rose from 246 to 247 [2] - PTA main contract futures price rose from 4384 yuan/ton to 4414 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; PTA spot price increased from 4315 yuan/ton to 4320 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] - PTA spot processing fee rose from 119.6 yuan/ton to 121.8 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.2 yuan; the disk processing fee increased from 188.6 yuan/ton to 215.8 yuan/ton, up 27.2 yuan [2] - MEG main contract futures price rose from 4003 yuan/ton to 4004 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan; MEG - naphtha decreased from - 102.16 yuan/ton to - 102.35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2 yuan [2] - MEG domestic price decreased from 4100 yuan/ton to 4075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan [2] b. Industry Chain Operating Rates - PX, PTA, MEG operating rates and polyester load remained unchanged at 84.62%, 76.95%, 65.39%, and 89.38% respectively [2] c. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150D/48F decreased from 6390 yuan/ton to 6340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; POY cash flow decreased from 77 to 31, a decrease of 46 [2] - FDY150D/96F remained unchanged at 6605 yuan/ton; FDY cash flow increased from - 208 to - 204, an increase of 4 [2] - DTY150D/48F decreased from 7740 yuan/ton to 7735 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; DTY cash flow decreased from 227 to 226, a decrease of 1 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased from 6355 yuan/ton to 6340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan; staple fiber cash flow decreased from 392 to 381, a decrease of 11 [2] - Semi - bright chip decreased from 5475 yuan/ton to 5465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; chip cash flow decreased from 62 to 56, a decrease of 6 [2] d. Product Sales Ratios - Long - filament sales ratio increased from 55% to 86%, an increase of 31% [2] - Staple - fiber sales ratio decreased from 68% to 66%, a decrease of 2% [2] - Chip sales ratio increased from 67% to 93%, an increase of 26% [2] e. Device Maintenance - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2]

宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/10/22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 (bp) | | | DR001 | 1.31 | 0.01 | DR007 | 1.44 | 1.01 | | 12 | GC001 | 1.10 | -6.00 | GC007 | 1.46 | 0.50 | | J | SHBOR 3M | 1.59 | 0.40 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | J | 1年期国债 | 1.47 | 0.25 | 5年期国债 | 1.58 | -0.90 | | E | 10年期国债 | 1.76 | -1.00 | 10年期美债 | 3.97 | -1.40 | | = | | | | | | | 回顾:央行昨日开展了1595亿元7天期逆回购操作,当日910亿元逆回购到 期,据此计算,单日净投放 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.63% to 3863.89 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.98%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.98%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index fell 0.25%, the STAR 50 Index rose 0.35%, the Wind All - A Index rose 0.79%, the Wind A500 Index rose 0.61%, and the CSI A500 Index rose 0.63% [4]. - A - share trading volume was 1.75 trillion yuan, the lowest since August 8th, compared with 1.95 trillion yuan the previous day [4]. 2. Index Quotes | Index | Closing Price | Change (%) | Turnover (billion yuan) | Volume (billion) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | SSE 50 | 1283.62 | 53.18 | 2974.8648 | 0.24 | | CSI 300 | N/A | 0.53 | 5057.99 | 0.75 | | CSI 1000 | 3284.45 | 218.58 | - | - | [3] 3. CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading | Index | Call Option Volume (million contracts) | Put Option Volume (million contracts) | Volume PCR | Option Open Interest (million contracts) | Call Option Open Interest (million contracts) | Put Option Open Interest (million contracts) | Open Interest PCR | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | SSE 50 | 2.72 | 1.77 | 0.54 | 5.41 | 3.20 | 2.21 | 0.69 | | CSI 300 | 3.06 | 7.98 | 0.62 | 8.22 | 5.88 | 4.92 | 0.72 | | CSI 1000 | 21.04 | 11.60 | 0.81 | 23.71 | 9.44 | 12.59 | 0.88 | [3] 4. Volatility Analysis - The report provides historical volatility and volatility cone analysis for SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000, as well as their next - month at - the - money implied volatility smile curves [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - In the short term, stock index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly, but be wary of the repetition of tariff policies. Pay attention to the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month. The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, suppressing the upward space. The easing of Sino - US trade tensions may suppress precious metal prices, but factors such as the continued US government shutdown and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in October will continue to support the gold price, so the gold price is expected to turn into a fluctuating trend. The silver price has fallen from a high level and may fluctuate bearishly in the short term. The prices of various commodities in different industries are affected by multiple factors such as Sino - US trade relations, government shutdowns, production capacity, inventory, and policy changes, showing different trends of fluctuation, strength, or weakness [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - **Precious Metals**: The easing of Sino - US trade tensions may suppress precious metal prices; the continued US government shutdown and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in October will support the gold price, which is expected to fluctuate. The silver price has fallen from a high level and may fluctuate bearishly in the short term, but the physical tightness in London needs to be noted [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Short - term global trade frictions are repeated, copper price fluctuations intensify. The continuous fermentation of copper mine supply disturbances and the improvement of domestic and foreign macro - liquidity are expected to drive the copper price to continue to operate strongly [1]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are mixed, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The alumina production capacity is continuously released, and the production and inventory are increasing, putting pressure on the spot price. Pay attention to the cost support recently [1]. - **Zinc**: The continued US government shutdown increases macro risks. Although Sino - US trade tensions have eased, subsequent disturbances still exist. The short - term opening of the export window has supported the domestic zinc price [1]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Sino - US trade frictions have slightly eased, and the Fed rate cut expectation at the end of the month remains high. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and attention should be paid to the nickel ore quota approval in the fourth quarter. The nickel price may be dominated by the macro situation and fluctuate strongly in the short term, but beware of high - inventory suppression. The stainless steel futures will fluctuate in the short term, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - **Tin**: The continued US government shutdown increases macro risks. Although Sino - US trade tensions have eased, subsequent disturbances still exist. The short - term impact of the Indonesian ore ban is not significant, but the supply risk of tin ore is expected to be strong, and the demand is supported by the AI trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices in the medium and long term [1]. Chemical Industry - **Polysilicon**: Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, southwest start - up is weaker than in previous years, and the impact of the dry season is weakened. The production plan in October has increased unexpectedly. Organic silicon demand is weak [1]. - **Other Chemicals**: For various chemicals such as PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, styrene, urea, PE, PP, PVC, ES, LPG, etc., their prices are affected by factors such as production capacity, inventory, market demand, and international market conditions, showing different trends of fluctuation, strength, or weakness [1]. Black Metals - **Steel and Related Products**: The industrial drivers of rebar and hot - rolled coils are unclear, and the valuations are low. It is not recommended to participate in directional trading. The near - month of iron ore is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month has upward potential. The supply of silicon iron and glass is in excess, and the prices are under pressure. The price of coal and coke may fluctuate widely, and it is necessary to pay attention to the new提法 of "anti - involution" in the domestic major meeting communique [1]. Agricultural Products - **Oils and Grains**: For palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, etc., the market is affected by factors such as international trade policies, production areas' supply and demand, and inventory. The market is in a state of multiple - factor entanglement, and different trading strategies are recommended [1]. - **Cotton and Sugar**: The short - term domestic cotton price is likely to fluctuate widely, and the market may face pressure in the long term. The raw sugar price has bottomed out and rebounded, but the upside space is limited. The domestic sugar price is expected to have limited rebound space, and the idea of selling at high prices is maintained [1]. - **Corn and Soybean Meal**: The selling pressure of US soybeans suppresses the US market price, which brings pressure to the domestic soybean oil price from the cost side. However, the expectation of soybean oil inventory reduction also supports the market. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by Sino - US trade policies and supply - demand relationships, and it is not advisable to be overly bearish [1]. Energy and Others - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Crude oil, fuel oil, etc. are affected by factors such as OPEC + production increase, seasonal demand changes, and US tariff policies, showing a fluctuating trend. The prices of other products such as BR rubber, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. are also affected by multiple factors such as production capacity, inventory, and market demand [1]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping price has fallen to a relatively low level, with the possibility of a low - level rebound. It is gradually entering the contract - changing rhythm, and the freight rate is close to the full - cost line, expected to stop falling and stabilize [1].

Group 1: Report Core View - Due to the uncertainty of Sino-US trade policies and the reality of loose domestic soybean meal supply, the market has a pessimistic outlook. However, the current poor domestic soybean purchase profit is expected to affect the pace of ship purchases. It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the single side. It is recommended to pay attention to Sino-US policies and South American weather in the later stage [8] Group 2: Industry Data Summary Basis Data - On October 20th, the basis of the main soybean meal contract in Dalian was 105, down 27; in Tianjin, it was 85, down 27; in Rizhao, it was 75, down 7. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Zhangjiagang was 5, down 47 [6] - The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 89, down 31 [6] Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the spread between the main contracts was 545, down 17 [7] Inventory Data - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level. This week, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased due to the holiday, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises decreased [8] Supply and Demand Data - Supply: Affected by less rainfall in US soybean producing areas after August, the estimated yield per acre of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season still has a certain downward adjustment space. The planting of Brazilian soybeans has begun, and as of October 14th, the sowing rate was 11.1%, higher than 9.1% in the same period last year but lower than the five - year average of 16.9%. China cannot purchase US soybeans, and the source of soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [7][8] - Demand: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect long - term supply. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio and a high substitution ratio. The downstream trading of soybean meal is apparently light, but the提货 is good [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The shipping market is in a strong oscillation. The EC main contract rose by over 7% due to the Ministry of Commerce's countermeasures against 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd., triggering concerns about the supply of shipping capacity. The European line is in the year - end price - holding stage, with the first round of price - holding in late October showing initial results, and it has entered the second round in early November. Future price - holding is expected in the next two months. The strategy is to wait and see. Follow - up attention should be paid to Sino - US relations, end - of - month loading, and November empty sailings [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI)**: The current value is 1310, up 12.92% from the previous value of 1160 [3] - **China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI)**: The current value is 973, down 4.11% from the previous value of 1015 [3] - **SCFI - US West**: The current value is 1936, up 31.88% from the previous value of 1468 [3] - **SCFIS - US West**: The current value is 862, down 1.60% from the previous value of 876 [3] - **SCFI - US East**: The current value is 2853, up 16.35% from the previous value of 2452 [3] - **SCFI - Northwest Europe**: The current value is 1145, up 7.21% from the previous value of 1068 [3] - **SCFIS - Northwest Europe**: The current value is 1031, down 1.43% from the previous value of 1046 [3] - **SCFI - Mediterranean**: The current value is 1613, up 3.53% from the previous value of 1558 [3] 3.2 Shipping Derivative Contracts - **Contract Prices**: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2608, etc., the prices have different degrees of increase, with the increase ranging from 0.29% to 3.68% [3] - **Contract Holdings**: For contracts such as EC2606, EC2608, etc., the holdings have different degrees of change, with the change ranging from a decrease of 91 to an increase of 442 [3] - **Monthly Spreads**: The 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 monthly spreads have decreased by 24.1, 22.7, and 3.8 respectively [3] 3.3 Market News - **US - Israel Relations**: US Vice - President J.D. Vance is expected to visit Israel next Tuesday to promote the implementation of the Gaza war cease - fire agreement, but there are still uncertainties about "Hamas disarmament" and "Gaza demilitarization" [5] - **Egypt's Shipping Loss**: Egypt claims to have lost over $9 billion due to Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping [5] - **US Tariff Policy**: The US may soon announce a long tariff exemption list, and intense lobbying is expected [5] - **US - China Tariff Relations**: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent plans to meet with Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia next week to prevent the escalation of the US - China tariff war [5] - **Middle East Peace Process**: White House envoy Steve Witkoff will travel to the Middle East on Sunday night to follow up on the Gaza cease - fire agreement [5] - **IMO's Decision**: The International Maritime Organization (IMO) will discuss the "Net Zero Framework" (NZF) [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - PTA supply side is contracting, with Ningbo Yisheng Petrochemical Phase 4 reducing its load by 50% until the end of the month. PTA processing fees remain low, and industry profits are still constrained by over - capacity due to new plant commissions. [2] - Polyester downstream load remains above 90%, but high load has not led to large - scale inventory accumulation. With the end of the "Golden September and Silver October" period, there are concerns that subsequent textile and clothing demand will be affected by the trade war. [2] - PTA's operating rate may decline further, and due to the decline in crude oil prices, it is difficult for PTA to have an independent market. Bottle chips and short fibers continue to fluctuate with costs. [2] Group 3: Summary by Indicators Price Indicators - PTA spot price decreased from 4340 to 4315, a decrease of 25 [2] - MEG domestic price decreased from 4115 to 4100, a decrease of 15 [2] - PTA closing price decreased from 4402 to 4384, a decrease of 18 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6370 to 6355, a decrease of 15 [2] - Polyester bottle chip prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets decreased, with the average price down 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day [2] Spread and Basis Indicators - Short - fiber basis decreased from 201 to 199, a decrease of 2 [2] - The 11 - 12 spread decreased from 26 to 4, a decrease of 22 [2] - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased from 920 to 905, a decrease of 15 [2] Cash Flow and Processing Fee Indicators - Polyester staple fiber cash flow decreased from 246 to 240, a decrease of 6 [2] - Bottle chip spot processing fee decreased from 539 to 542, a decrease of 2.6 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3910 to 3925, an increase of 15 [2] Load and Production and Sales Indicators - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) decreased from 94.40% to 93.90% [3] - Polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 81.00% to 77.00%, a decrease of 4.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 63.50% [3] - Recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 51.50% to 51.00% [3]

Report Summary 1. Core View - The LPR quotes remained stable in October 2025. The 1 - year LPR was 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, the same as last time [4]. - China's GDP in the first three quarters of 2025 was 101.5036 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. In the third quarter, GDP was 35.45 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 4.8% at constant prices. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of consumption weakened to 3%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment dropped significantly to 1.1%, mainly dragged down by real estate investment, which had a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of - 13.9% from January to September [6]. - Due to the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade policies, the market risk appetite may fluctuate in the short term. After the adverse factors of trade frictions gradually ease, the stock index is expected to return to the upward channel. Before November 1 when the 100% US tariff takes effect, the stock index is expected to fluctuate as the situation may become clearer after the possible meeting between the top leaders of China and the US at the APEC meeting [6]. 2. Market Data Interest Rate Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Value (bp) | | --- | --- | --- | | DR001 | 1.47 | 0.00 | | DR007 | 1.59 | 2.25 | | GC001 | 1.16 | - 6.00 | | GC007 | 1.45 | - 1.00 | | SHBOR 3M | 1.58 | 0.20 | | LPR 5 - year | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 1 - year Treasury Bond | 1.47 | 0.00 | | 5 - year Treasury Bond | 1.59 | 2.25 | | 10 - year Treasury Bond | 1.77 | 2.10 | | 10 - year US Treasury Bond | 4.02 | 1.80 | [3] - The central bank conducted 189 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%, with a bid volume, winning bid volume of 189 billion yuan. With 253.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 64.8 billion yuan [3]. - This week, 1.021 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will mature, with 612 billion yuan and 409 billion yuan maturing on Thursday and Friday respectively [4]. Stock Index Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Day (%) | | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 300 | 4538 | 0.53 | | IF Current Month | 4520 | 0.5 | | SSE 50 | 2975 | 0.24 | | IH Current Month | 2972 | 0.3 | | CSI 500 | 7070 | 0.76 | | IC Current Month | 6972 | 0.7 | | CSI 1000 | 7239 | 0.75 | | IM Current Month | 7138 | 0.5 | | IF Trading Volume | 112287 | - 33.7 | | IF Open Interest | 257451 | - 3.1 | | IH Trading Volume | 52619 | - 41.0 | | IH Open Interest | 89892 | - 8.2 | | IC Trading Volume | 134833 | - 21.8 | | IC Open Interest | 243216 | - 1.4 | | IM Trading Volume | 228283 | - 21.5 | | IM Open Interest | 354337 | - 2.7 | [5] - Yesterday, the CSI 300 rose 0.53% to 4538.2, the SSE 50 rose 0.24% to 2974.9, the CSI 500 rose 0.76% to 7069.6, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.75% to 7239.2. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.7376 trillion yuan, a decrease of 200.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Most industry sectors rose, with coal, gas, non - metallic materials, motors, airports, communication services, batteries, communication equipment, and consumer electronics leading the gains, while the precious metals sector tumbled [5]. Futures Premium and Discount | | Current Month Contract | Next Month Contract | Current Quarter Contract | Next Quarter Contract | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF Premium/Discount | 4.63% | 4.21% | 2.99% | 3.03% | | IH Premium/Discount | 1.10% | 0.91% | 0.23% | 0.26% | | IC Premium/Discount | 15.75% | 13.81% | 11.02% | 10.72% | | IM Premium/Discount | 16.01% | 15.12% | 13.28% | 12.54% | [7] Note: The values in brackets are the annualized premium/discount rates (green indicates premium, red indicates discount).

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Current paper product demand remains stable, paper product prices show no obvious rebound, and the positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [12] - As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 207.4 million tons, a decrease of 0.3 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, showing a narrow de - stocking trend [12] - The pulp fundamentals have no obvious improvement, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 Russian needles. The futures price may be priced according to Russian needles and high - quality softwood pulp; maintain the 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy [12] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 20, 2025, SP2601 was 5156, up 0.66% day - on - day and down 0.04% week - on - week; SP2511 was 4858, up 0.41% day - on - day and up 1.80% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5212, up 0.54% day - on - day and down 0.31% week - on - week [6] - **Spot Prices**: On October 20, 2025, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; the price of Russian Needles was 5100, up 2.00% day - on - day and week - on - week; the price of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week [6] - **Foreign Quotes**: In October 2025, the quote of Chilean Silver Star was 700 US dollars/ton, down 2.78% month - on - month; the quote of Japanese pulp was 530 US dollars/ton, up 3.92% month - on - month; the quote of Chilean Venus was 590 US dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6] - **Import Costs**: In October 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5721, down 2.75% month - on - month; the import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged month - on - month [6] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 million tons, up 12.54% month - on - month; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 135.6 million tons, up 7.79% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 million tons, up 4.50% month - on - month [6] - **Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 207.4 million tons; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.7 million tons [6] - **Demand**: In October 2025, the production of offset paper was 20.30 million tons, coated paper was 7.90 million tons, tissue paper was 28.08 million tons, and white cardboard was 34.50 million tons [6] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On October 20, 2025, the Russian Needles basis was 242, with a quantile level of 0.91; the Silver Star basis was 642, with a quantile level of 0.877 [6] - **Import Profit**: On October 20, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 221, with a quantile level of 0.285; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94, with a quantile level of 0.555 [6] Supply - side Information - Chile's Arauco Company's September softwood pulp Silver Star was quoted at 700 US dollars/ton; hardwood pulp Star was quoted at 540 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton; natural pulp Venus was quoted at 590 US dollars/ton, unchanged. Softwood pulp foreign quotes decreased, while hardwood pulp quotes increased [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is weakly stable with prices remaining unchanged on Monday, dominated by rigid - demand purchases, while speculative demand and trading are light. The market's focus may shift to domestic important meetings, but the possibility of major policies in the short - term is low. The pricing weight of the market is increasing. Steel inventories are back to last year's level, but some varieties have serious inventories. The demand lacks explosive power, and the cost shows a structural differentiation [2]. - The improvement in steel demand provides some support for the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. The rising coal price due to northern heating raises the cost of steel and double - silicon, limiting the downward price space. However, the over - supply pattern of double - silicon continues, suppressing the upward price space [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the steel mills have not responded to the second price increase. The spot trading atmosphere is average, and the coking coal auction in the origin has weakened. The supply of coking coal in the Mongolian market is still in short supply. The black - sector internal varieties are difficult to resonate, and the coking coal and coke prices may remain in a shock without new "anti - involution"提法 from domestic major meetings [4]. - There is no obvious driving force for iron ore. The supply is not significantly affected in the short - term. High iron - water production may lead to over - supply in the fourth quarter, and the expected increase in Ximengdu iron ore shipments limits the price ceiling [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Market Conditions**: On October 20, the closing prices of far - month and near - month contracts of steel futures had different changes. The spot prices of Tianjin, Shanghai, and Guangzhou steel remained unchanged, and the Guangzhou steel price decreased by 0.65 yuan/ton. The trading on Monday was mainly for rigid demand, with light speculative demand and trading. The market is waiting for the impact of domestic important meetings [1][2]. - **Macro and Industry Analysis**: Before the APEC meeting, the Sino - US tariff issue is still uncertain. The market's focus may shift to domestic important meetings, but the possibility of major policies in the short - term is low. The economic growth in the third quarter maintained resilience, and the pressure to achieve the annual economic growth target is small. The crude steel output has decreased year - on - year in the first three quarters, and the space for administrative production reduction is limited. The steel inventory is back to last year's level, but some varieties have serious inventories. The demand lacks explosive power, and the cost shows a structural differentiation [2]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Adopt a wait - and - see or shock - thinking approach for single - side trading. Observe the opportunity to go long when the spread between rebar and hot - rolled coil of the 01 contract is below 150 for inter - market arbitrage. Roll and take profit for spot - futures reverse arbitrage [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Situation**: The improvement in steel demand provides some support for the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. The rising coal price due to northern heating raises the cost of steel and double - silicon, limiting the downward price space. However, the over - supply pattern of double - silicon continues, suppressing the upward price space [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Market**: The steel mills have not responded to the second price increase. The spot trading atmosphere in the port's domestic market is average. The coking coal auction in the origin has weakened, with more unsuccessful auctions. The coking coal price in the Mongolian market is supported by the shortage of supply [4]. - **Futures Market**: On Monday, the futures market first rose and then fell. The carbon element was still strong, while the iron element was weak. After the holiday, the increase in coking coal supply was limited, and the iron - water output remained high. The market expected stricter safety inspections in the main production areas, resulting in a tight supply - demand situation for spot goods. The steel inventory pressure was large, and the inventory reduction speed was slow. The black - sector internal varieties were difficult to resonate, and the coking coal and coke prices were affected by steel. After the price rose on Friday night, it reached a relatively high level. Pay attention to whether domestic major meetings will have new "anti - involution"提法 [4]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Temporarily wait and see for single - side trading [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: In the short - term, the supply data has not been significantly affected. High iron - water production may lead to over - supply in the fourth quarter. The expected increase in Ximengdu iron ore shipments limits the price ceiling [5].