1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillating", and the trading strategy suggests "oscillating" for single - side trading and "waiting and seeing" for arbitrage [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - The uncertainty of Sino - US trade policies and the reality of loose domestic soybean meal supply bring pessimistic market expectations. However, the current poor profit of domestic ship - buying is expected to affect the ship - buying progress, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish on single - side trading. It is recommended to pay attention to Sino - US policies and South American weather in the later stage [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview 3.1.1 Supply - The outlook for soybean meal is bearish, while that for rapeseed meal is bullish. The estimated yield per acre of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season still has room for downward adjustment. Brazilian soybean planting has started smoothly, with a sowing rate of 11.1% as of October 14, higher than last year but lower than the five - year average. Domestic soybean inventories are expected to decline in October, but the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. Under Sino - Canadian trade policies, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to shrink, but the opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the domestic rapeseed meal supply in the fourth quarter [4]. 3.1.2 Demand - In the short term, it is bullish, while in the long term, it is bearish. Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect future supply. Soybean meal has high cost - effectiveness and a high proportion in feed, but its downstream trading is light, while the downstream trading and pick - up of rapeseed meal are cautious [4]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The outlook for soybean meal is bearish, and that for rapeseed meal is bullish. Domestic soybean inventories have reached a high level. This week, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased due to the holiday, and the inventory days of feed enterprises also decreased. Domestic rapeseed inventories have dropped to a low level, and rapeseed meal inventories are being depleted, but the inventory level is still at a high level compared to the same period in previous years [4]. 3.1.4 Basis/Spread - It is neutral [4]. 3.1.5 Profit - It is bullish. The profit of Brazilian soybean crushing has deteriorated, while that of Canadian rapeseed crushing is good [4]. 3.1.6 Valuation - It is neutral. From the perspective of crushing profit, the futures price of soybean meal is at a relatively low valuation, while from the perspective of basis, it is at a neutral valuation [4]. 3.1.7 Macro and Policy - It is neutral. Recently, Sino - US trade sentiment has been volatile, and market sensitivity has decreased. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US meeting at the APEC Summit on October 30 [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply - and - Demand Data of Meal Products 3.2.1 Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio - In September, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season increased, while that of global soybeans decreased. The inventory - to - consumption ratio of rapeseed increased [34][40]. 3.2.2 Planting and Yield - The sowing rate and excellent - rate data of US soybeans are presented, and the domestic crushing profit of US soybeans is declining [49][54]. 3.2.3 Trade and Import - This week, the US soybean export sales data was not released. Data on soybean CNF premiums, import soybean futures margins, Canadian rapeseed CFR prices, and import crushing profits are provided. The monthly import volume data of soybeans, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal in China are also presented [66][73][76]. 3.2.4 Inventory and Processing - Domestic soybean inventories are at a high level, soybean meal inventories in oil mills decreased due to the holiday, and the inventory days of feed enterprises decreased. The inventory of imported rapeseed and rapeseed meal in major domestic regions is also presented. Data on the operating rate and crushing volume of major domestic oil mills are provided [82][89][96]. 3.2.5 Trading and Consumption - The trading of soybean meal is light, but the pick - up is at a high level. Data on the trading volume, pick - up volume, and apparent consumption of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented. The monthly output data of feed are also provided [105][106][112]. 3.2.6 Breeding Industry - Data on the breeding profits, prices, weights, and slaughter volumes of pigs, broilers, and laying hens are presented [120][129][133].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for specific products: - **Industrial Silicon**: Bearish [8] - **Polysilicon**: Sideways [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Bullish [88] 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the new energy sector have not changed significantly, but news has triggered market fluctuations. For example, the polysilicon futures price rose due to the news of a capacity storage platform, but the market sentiment may drive the price down after the rumor was confirmed false [9]. - Industrial silicon supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, so the silicon price may be weak. Lithium carbonate prices are pushed up in the short - term due to supply - demand mismatch, but the long - term supply surplus pattern remains unchanged [8][88]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Colored and New Energy Price Monitoring - **Price Data**: The report provides the closing prices, daily, weekly, and annual percentage changes of various有色金属 and new energy products. For example, the current price of industrial silicon is 8,685 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.52%, a weekly decrease of 3.07%, and an annual decrease of 20.94% [6]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon (SI) and Polysilicon (PS) Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: National weekly production is 97,500 tons, a 2.09% increase from the previous week. The production in the northwest region is increasing. September production was 420,800 tons, a 9.10% increase from the previous month, and the planned production in October is 456,600 tons, an 8.52% increase from September [8]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of polysilicon and silicone has decreased. For example, the weekly production of polysilicon is 31,500 tons, a 1.28% decrease from the previous week [8]. - **Inventory**: The dominant inventory is 696,100 tons, a 0.31% increase from the previous week, with a 21.52% increase year - on - year [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9,087 yuan, remaining the same as last week, and the profit per ton is 132 yuan, a 1 - yuan decrease from last week [8]. - **Investment View**: Bearish. The supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and the silicon price may be weak [8]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: National weekly production is 31,500 tons, a 1.28% decrease from the previous week. The planned production in October is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from September [9]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of silicon wafers is 13.66 GW, a 0.11% increase from the previous week, and the factory inventory is 17.31 GW, a 3.16% increase from the previous week [9]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 26,350 tons, a 3.78% increase from the previous week, and the registered warehouse receipts are 25,830 tons, a 5.77% increase from the previous week [9]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41,493 yuan, a 0.12% decrease from the previous week, and the profit per ton is 9,107 yuan, a 50 - yuan increase from last week [9]. - **Macro Factor**: On October 9, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a document emphasizing not to bid below cost [9]. - **Investment View**: Sideways. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, but the price may return to the previous sideways range after the false rumor [9]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 20,600 tons, a 0.58% increase from the previous week. The planned production in October is about 90,000 tons, a 3.09% increase from September [88]. - **Import**: In August, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,800 tons, a 57.79% increase from the previous month. In September, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China were 11,100 tons, a 14.49% decrease from the previous month [88]. - **Demand**: - **Lithium Salt Materials**: The weekly production of iron - lithium materials is 78,200 tons, a 0.12% increase from the previous week. The weekly production of ternary materials is 19,000 tons, a 0.58% increase from the previous week [88]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: In September, the production was 1.617 million vehicles, a 16.29% increase from the previous month, and the sales were 1.604 million vehicles, a 14.96% increase from the previous month [88]. - **Energy Storage**: From January to August, the cumulative domestic energy - storage winning bid power was 41.09 GW/111.43 GWh, a 20.71%/53.55% increase year - on - year [88]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 132,700 tons, a 1.59% decrease from the previous week. Lithium salt factory inventory is 34,300 tons, a 1.34% decrease from the previous week [88]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium mica - extracted lithium is 75,870 yuan/ton, a 2.49% decrease from the previous week, and the production profit is - 5,918 yuan/ton, a 1,397 - yuan increase from last week [88]. - **Investment View**: Bullish. Strong terminal demand stimulates downstream purchases, leading to inventory reduction. Although production has increased, which may suppress the futures price, the short - term supply - demand mismatch pushes up the price [88].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market is under negative pressure in terms of supply, demand, and inventory. It is recommended to conduct an 11 - 1 reverse spread as the pulp futures are at an absolute low, with no upward driving force and significant old warehouse receipt pressure [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Suzano raised prices in Asia and Europe in September 2025, and Arauco adjusted its quotes. Although the阔叶浆 outer - market quotes increased for two consecutive periods, the针叶浆 outer - market quotes decreased. South American exports increased in September, and supply is expected to remain loose [3]. - **Demand**: Except for white cardboard, the production and prices of other wood - pulp paper products did not rise significantly. Paper mills maintained just - in - time replenishment, and there was no boost to pulp prices [3]. - **Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 207.4 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from the previous period, a 0.1% month - on - month decline, showing a narrow downward trend [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Conduct an 11 - 1 reverse spread. It is recommended to wait and see as pulp futures are at a low level with no upward driving force and significant old warehouse receipt pressure [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, no recommendation; for arbitrage, conduct an 11 - 1 reverse spread. Pay attention to the removal of pulp warehouse receipts [3]. Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures Market**: This week, the pulp fundamentals remained stable, with the futures price fluctuating at a low level. The old warehouse receipt problem remains unsolved, and the near - month contract is under pressure [6]. - **Spot Market**: The price of broad - leaf pulp was stable, while the price of softwood pulp declined. Specifically, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5,520 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week and 150 yuan/ton month - on - month; the price of softwood pulp Buzhen was 4,830 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week but down 250 yuan/ton month - on - month; the price of broad - leaf pulp Jinyu was 4,250 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week and up 70 yuan/ton month - on - month [15]. - **Outer - Market Quotes**: In September, the price of broad - leaf pulp increased, while the outer - market quotes of softwood pulp decreased. Arauco adjusted its quotes in August and September [18]. - **Position**: As of October 17, 2025, the total position of pulp futures contracts was 394,124 lots, up 0.46% from last week; the position of the main contract was 179,966 lots, up 36.73% from last week [21]. Part Three: Pulp Supply and Demand Fundamentals Data - **Import Volume**: In August, the import volume of pulp and wood chips decreased. The total pulp import volume was 2.653 million tons, down 7.79%; the softwood pulp import volume was 614,000 tons, down 4.95%; the broad - leaf pulp import volume was 1.258 million tons, down 6.88%; the broad - leaf wood chip import volume was 1.259 million tons, down 6.11% [4]. - **Inventory**: Chinese port pulp inventory was stable, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased slightly. Overseas, the inventory of softwood pulp mills increased, while that of broad - leaf pulp mills was stable. As of the end of July, the inventory of 20 major global commodity pulp suppliers was 47 days, with 50 days for bleached softwood pulp and 45 days for bleached hardwood pulp [32][36]. - **Downstream Demand**: As of October 17, 2025, among the four major wood - pulp papers, the price of white cardboard increased, while the prices of the other three remained stable. In September 2025, the production volume of paper products increased month - on - month. The inventory of white cardboard decreased, while that of other paper products remained stable [40][47][54]. - **European and American Demand**: In September 2025, the available days of European softwood pulp inventory decreased by 3.7 to 26.5, and that of broad - leaf pulp decreased by 4.2 to 26.7. As of August 2025, the capacity utilization rate of US paper products was 82.52%, down 0.29% month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio in July was 1.02, down month - on - month [72]. Part Four: Pulp Futures Valuation - **Spread**: The basis weakened. As of October 17, 2025, the basis of Shandong Buzhen pulp was - 292 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of Shandong Silver Star pulp was 398 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan/ton from last week. The 11 - 1 spread narrowed to - 284 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from last week [80]. - **Import Profit**: As of October 17, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp was 162 yuan/ton, up 4.6 yuan/ton from last week; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp was 31 yuan/ton, up 3.4 yuan/ton from last week [81].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, after the significant adjustment of precious metal prices on the night of last Friday, they may turn to a volatile trend due to the easing of Sino - US trade tensions and the mitigation of political turmoil in Japan. However, due to the ongoing US government shutdown and the expected interest rate cut by the Fed in October, precious metal prices are unlikely to continue to decline. Silver may face further adjustment risks if the physical shortage in London eases [6]. - In the long - term, the gold price is likely to continue to rise as the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, US debt is unsustainable, and central banks around the world continue to buy gold. Long - term investors are advised to go long on dips [6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Review - On October 17, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 3.82% at 999.8 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 2.06% at 12,249 yuan/kilogram [3][5]. b) Price and Spread Data - **Price Changes**: From October 16 to 17, London spot gold rose 3.2% to 4360.01 dollars/ounce, London spot silver rose 2.6% to 54.21 dollars/ounce. COMEX gold rose 3.2% to 4372.50 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 2.3% to 53.15 dollars/ounce. Shanghai gold futures (AU2512) rose 3.5% to 999.80 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver futures (AG2512) rose 1.9% to 12249.00 yuan/kilogram [5]. - **Spread Changes**: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price changed from - 1.82 yuan/gram on October 16 to - 2.8 yuan/gram on October 17, with a change rate of 53.8%. The spread of silver TD - SHFE active price changed from - 27 yuan/kilogram to - 29 yuan/kilogram, with a change rate of 7.4% [5]. c) Position and Inventory Data - **Position Changes**: From October 16 to 17, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold increased by 1.85% to 332,808 contracts, and the non - commercial short positions increased by 9.43% to 66,059 contracts. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver increased by 0.97% to 72,318 contracts, and the non - commercial short positions decreased by 0.21% to 20,042 contracts [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: From October 16 to 17, SHFE gold inventory increased by 4.50% to 84,606 kilograms, and SHFE silver inventory decreased by 6.33% to 920,103 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.10% to 39,107,098 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.53% to 509,459,321 troy ounces [5]. d) Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Stock Market Data - On October 17, the US dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.09, the US dollar index was 98.56, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.46%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.02%, the VIX was 20.78, the S&P 500 was 6664.01, and NYWEX crude oil was 57.25 [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is "oscillating" [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices have been continuously falling, and asphalt prices are slowly following the downward trend. The overall situation in October shows an increase in supply. Although some refineries have shut down, demand has declined due to the rainy season in the north, resulting in the off - peak season for asphalt. The general trend will continue to fluctuate with crude oil [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Two information companies' tracking data shows that the planned production of local refineries in October is 1.604 million tons and 1.61 million tons respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 3% and 9%. Although some refineries are in maintenance or intermittent production, overall market supply shows an increasing trend [3] - **Demand**: Affected by factors such as logistics restrictions during the National Day, domestic asphalt market demand has declined. However, there are still some construction rush expectations in the market. The total shipment this week is 393,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% [3] - **Inventory**: Factory inventories are accumulating, especially in East China. Social inventories are decreasing, especially in the north [3] - **Cost**: After the National Day, crude oil prices have been continuously falling. Multiple factors such as trade tensions, supply warnings, and geopolitical issues have affected the decline of crude oil prices. Currently, Brent crude has fallen to the important support level of $60 [3] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The market is expected to oscillate. The trading strategy for unilateral trading is also oscillation, and there is no arbitrage strategy [3] Part Two: Price - The report presents charts of the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions such as East China, South China, North China, and Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [5][6][9][11] Part Two: Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - **Spread**: Charts show the asphalt cracking spread (BU - (SC*6.35)) and the spread between asphalt and coker feedstock from 2021 to 2025 [14][16] - **Basis**: Charts show the basis of asphalt in major regions (South China, East China, and Shandong) from 2020 to 2025 [18] Part Two: Supply - **Scheduled Production Expectation**: Charts show the monthly scheduled production and actual production of asphalt in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 10, as well as the production in different regions such as North China, South China, Shandong, and East China from 2021 to 2025 [22][24][25][28] - **Capacity Utilization**: Charts show the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, and South China from 2021 to 2025 [33][35][37][38][39][40] - **Maintenance Loss**: Charts show the weekly and monthly maintenance loss of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [44] Part Two: Cost and Profit - **Production Gross Margin**: A chart shows the production gross margin of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [47][48] - **Diluted Asphalt**: Charts show the price, premium/discount, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [50][51][52] Part Three: Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: Charts show the factory inventory and inventory rate of asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China) from 2022 to 2025 [56][58][59] - **Social Inventory**: Charts show the social inventory of asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China) from 2022 to 2025 [61][62] Part Three: Demand - **Shipment Volume**: Charts show the shipment volume of asphalt in different regions (China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China) from 2022 to 2025 [65] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: Charts show the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, waterproofing membranes, and modified asphalt in different regions from 2018 to 2025 [67][68][69][71][73][74]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, gold and silver prices first soared and then declined, but still had significant weekly gains. Factors such as the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, political turmoil in Europe and Japan, and loan fraud issues in U.S. regional banks increased market concerns about potential risks in the U.S. credit market, boosting the demand for safe - havens and driving up precious metal prices. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut also contributed to the price increase. However, the easing of Sino - U.S. trade tensions led to a rapid decline in market risk aversion and a sharp drop in precious metal prices [3]. - In the short term, due to the easing of Sino - U.S. trade tensions, precious metal prices may need adjustment. But considering the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and the expected Fed rate cut in October, prices are expected to move in a volatile range. For silver, the tight physical supply in London needs attention. If the shortage is alleviated, silver prices may face further adjustment risks. In the long - term, the underlying logic of the precious metal bull market remains solid, supported by factors such as the continuous rise of the U.S. federal government debt, expected Fed rate cuts, complex global geopolitical situations, and continued gold purchases by central banks [3]. - The recommended strategy is to wait and see in the short term and consider buying on dips after the adjustment in the long term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PART ONE:行情及基本面指标跟踪 - **Gold and Silver Prices and Gold - Silver Ratio**: The report presents the price trends of gold and silver through charts, including London spot gold, Shanghai gold futures, London spot silver, and Shanghai silver futures. The SHFE and COMEX gold - silver ratios are also shown [5][6][7][8]. - **ETFs and CFTC Positions**: Charts display the non - commercial net long positions of COMEX gold and silver, as well as the holdings of gold SPDR - ETF and silver SLV - ETF. The data shows changes in market sentiment and investment trends [26][27][28][30][31]. - **Inventory Data**: Information on the inventories of gold and silver in SHFE, COMEX, SGE, and LBMA is presented, which can reflect the supply and demand situation in the market [32][33][35][37]. 3.2 PART TWO:主要宏观指标跟踪 - **Major Macroeconomic Indicators**: The report tracks indicators such as the U.S. GDP growth rate, manufacturing and service PMI, consumer confidence index, employment data, inflation data, and central bank gold - buying. These indicators can help analyze the macro - economic environment and its impact on precious metal prices [55][56][57][62][68][82]. - **U.S. Economic Indicators**: The U.S. GDP has strong growth, but the manufacturing and service PMIs have declined. Employment has cooled significantly, inflation shows signs of rising, and consumer confidence has dropped [55][56][57][62][68]. - **Eurozone Economic Indicators**: The Eurozone GDP has bottomed out and rebounded. The manufacturing PMI has increased, while the service PMI has declined. Inflation data in the Eurozone and the UK are also presented [77][78][81]. - **Central Bank Gold - Buying**: The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months. Global central banks continue to be net buyers of gold, which provides support for the upward movement of the gold price [83][87].

Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Option Data Daily Report [2] - Date: October 20, 2025 [3] - Research Institute: Guomao Futures Research Institute [3] - Analyst: Li Zeju from the Financial Derivatives Center [3] - Data Sources: Wind, Guomao Futures Research Institute [3] Market Review Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.1% to 3916.23 points; Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.25%; ChiNext Index rose 0.38%; North Star 50 Index fell 1.3%; STAR 50 Index fell 0.94%; Wind All - A Index fell 0.44%; Wind A500 Index rose 0.03%; CSI A500 Index fell 0.04%. A - share trading volume was 1.95 trillion yuan, compared with 2.09 trillion yuan the previous day [4] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index closed at 2967.7748, down 1.70%, with a trading volume of 62.68 billion and a turnover of 1487.49 billion yuan [3] - CSI 300 Index fell 2.26% (value N/A), with a trading volume of 256.91 billion and a turnover of 5590.86 billion yuan [3] - CSI 1000 Index closed at 7185.4781, down 2.92%, with a trading volume of 254.33 billion and a turnover of 3838.75 billion yuan [3] CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading | Index | Call Option Volume (10,000 contracts) | Put Option Volume (10,000 contracts) | Volume PCR | Call Option Open Interest (10,000 contracts) | Put Option Open Interest (10,000 contracts) | Open Interest PCR | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 | 7.47 | 2.83 | 0.70 | 2.94 | 4.64 | 0.61 | | CSI 300 | 22.84 | 12.28 | 0.86 | 7.78 | 10.56 | 0.71 | | CSI 1000 | 44.22 | 22.01 | 0.99 | 11.69 | 22.13 | 0.89 | [3] Volatility Analysis - The report presents historical volatility cones and volatility smile curves for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 indexes, including different time - period historical volatilities (such as 5 - day, 20 - day, 40 - day, 60 - day, and 120 - day) and the current values compared with different percentile values (10%, 30%, 60%, 90%) [3][4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The shipping market shows a volatile trend. The European main - contract prices have increased due to the impact of the news that the Ministry of Commerce has taken counter - measures against Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. and its US - related subsidiaries. The European shipping line is in the year - end price - holding stage, with the first round of price - holding in late October showing initial results, and it has entered the second round in early November. The market is concerned about the impact of Sino - US relations and relevant policies on the shipping capacity supply. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Spot Freight Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is currently at 1310, up 12.92% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 973, down 4.11%. SCFI - US West is at 1936, up 31.88%; SCFIS - US West is at 862, down 1.60%; SCFI - US East is at 2853, up 16.35%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is at 1145, up 7.21%; SCFIS - Northwest Europe is at 1031, down 1.43%; SCFI - Mediterranean is at 1613, up 3.53% [4]. - **Contract Freight Index**: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2608, etc., the price fluctuations are relatively small, with the highest increase of 2.99% (EC5602) and the largest decrease of 0.36% (EC2510) [4]. - **Position and Change**: Positions like EC2606, EC2608, etc., have different changes. For example, EC2606 position decreased by 2, while EC2608 increased by 28 [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 10 - 12 monthly spread is currently - 557.8, down 7.6 from the previous value; the 12 - 2 spread is 182.7, down 39.2; the 12 - 4 spread is 530.7, down 0.5 [4]. 3.2 Market News - US Vice - President J.D. Vance is expected to visit Israel next Tuesday to promote the implementation of the Gaza war cease - fire agreement. There are still uncertainties about "Hamas disarmament" and "Gaza demilitarization" [5]. - Egypt claims to have lost over $9 billion due to Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping [5]. - The US may soon announce a tariff exemption list, and lobbying for tariff exemption or inclusion of certain goods is expected to intensify [5]. - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent plans to meet with Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia next week to prevent the escalation of the Sino - US tariff war [5]. - The White House envoy Steve Witkoff will go to the Middle East on Sunday evening to follow up on the implementation of the Gaza cease - fire agreement [5]. - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has postponed the discussion of the "Net Zero Framework" (NZF) by one year [6]. 3.3 Market Situation and Strategy - **Market Situation**: The market is in a volatile state. Affected by the news of counter - measures against relevant companies and concerns about Sino - US relations, the European shipping line is in the year - end price - holding stage. The first round of price - holding in late October stopped the decline, and it has entered the second round in early November. Future price - holding actions are also expected [6]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is to wait and see, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in Sino - US relations, end - of - month loading conditions, and November blank sailings [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", with no obvious driving force, and it is expected to mainly oscillate [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the polyester industry from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It points out that the supply side of polyester has shrunk, the downstream load of polyester remains at about 90%, and the PTA port inventory has slightly increased. The PTA basis has stabilized, but the profit has continued to shrink. The PX - naphtha spread is at $250, and the PTA processing fee remains at around 200 yuan. The PTA price is at a neutral - low level, and the absolute price has further declined due to the fall in crude oil prices. The overall market is expected to oscillate mainly due to the lack of obvious driving factors [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. The trade war may escalate, slightly affecting China's crude oil imports. The supply of domestic PTA devices has slightly shrunk, the PTA basis has stabilized, the PX device operating rate is stable, the cost has weakened, and although the PXN has expanded, polyester has followed the decline in crude oil [4] - **Demand**: It is bearish. The downstream load of polyester remains at about 90%, the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the weaving can maintain the load after the "Golden September and Silver October" [4] - **Inventory**: It is neutral. The port inventory of PTA has slightly increased, and the physical goods in the Ningbo direction are slightly in short supply [4] - **Basis**: It is bearish. The PTA basis has quickly stabilized, the PTA profit has continued to shrink, and the liquidity in the PTA market is still very loose [4] - **Profit**: It is bearish. The spread between PX and naphtha is $250, the PTA processing fee remains at around 200 yuan, and the PTA processing fee has expanded [4] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The PTA price is at a neutral - low level. After the end of the domestic maintenance season, the reforming devices are gradually recovering, and the absolute price of PTA has further declined due to the fall in crude oil prices [4] - **Macro Policy**: It is neutral. On October 15, Fed Chairman Powell hinted that the Fed is planning to cut interest rates by 25 basis points later this month [4] - **Investment View**: It is oscillating. There is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to mainly oscillate [4] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [4] 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Macro Situation**: On October 15, Fed Chairman Powell said that the US economy seems to be in a stable state, but the government shutdown may affect data collection. On October 17, major European stock indexes fell in early trading, with concerns about the banking industry spreading, and the European defense stocks also attracted attention [8] - **Gasoline**: The shutdown of the US government may affect demand in the off - season. The North American refinery load has declined, the total gasoline inventory has decreased by 1.6 million barrels, indicating strong terminal demand. The price of high - octane aromatics has remained relatively stable, and its spread with RBOB gasoline has remained stable at 68 cents [22] 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - **Supply Increase**: With the commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical, the supply of MX is expected to increase in October. The future domestic xylene capacity will continue to be put into production at a high speed, with 1.7 million tons of xylene devices in Jiujiang Petrochemical, Huajin Aramco, and Zhongsha Gulei waiting to be put into production in 2026 [62] - **Market Situation**: The cross - regional arbitrage space for aromatics has opened, but physical trade has not occurred. The profit of selective disproportionation has declined, and the pure benzene price has suppressed the disproportionation profit. After the end of the maintenance season, the floating spread of PX has continued to weaken, the operating rate has significantly recovered, and the load has reached a very high level [40][54][62] - **Outlook**: Mixed xylene is facing continuous downward pressure. The profit of both gasoline reforming and aromatic hydrocarbon reforming has recovered, but the PTA supply side has shrunk, the processing fee has remained low, and the industry profit is still restricted by over - capacity [52][66] 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol has increased, and the price is running weakly. The inventory in East China ethylene glycol ports is still at a low level, the arrival volume at ports is limited, the import volume in the overseas market is expected to decline, and the new domestic devices have put pressure on the price. The coal - to - ethylene glycol operating rate has continued to recover, and the profit has been repaired [80] - **Gasoline**: The load of major refineries may decline due to port transportation [81] - **Polyester**: Polyester continues to maintain a high load, but the weaving load may decline. The polyester production has increased, and the downstream has entered the off - season [88][90]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of Sino-US trade policies and the reality of loose domestic soybean meal supply bring pessimistic market expectations, but the current domestic crushing profit is poor, which is expected to affect the pace of vessel purchases. It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the single side. Later, attention should be paid to Sino-US policies and South American weather [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Basis - On October 17th, the 43% soybean meal spot basis in Dalian was 132, up 19; in Tianjin it was 112, up 19; in Rizhao it was 82; in Zhangjiagang it was 52, up 39; in Dongguan it was 32; in Zhanjiang it was 82, up 29; in Fangcheng it was 72, up 29. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 120, and MJ - 5 was 155, down 10 [6] 3.2 Spread Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in the factory area was 300, and the futures spread of the main contract was 562, up 19. The RM1 - 5 spread was 30, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 410 [7] 3.3 International Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.0897, down 38.00. The futures crushing profit was 297 yuan/ton [7] 3.4 Inventory Data - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level. This week, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased due to the holiday, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory of feed enterprises decreased [9] 3.5 Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply**: Affected by less rainfall in the US soybean producing areas after August, the estimated yield per acre of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season by USDA still has some room for downward adjustment. Due to the US government shutdown, the USDA crop growth report was postponed. Brazilian soybean planting has begun, and as of October 14th, the planting rate was 11.1%, higher than 9.1% of the same period last year but lower than the five - year average of 16.9%. In October, domestic soybeans are expected to start destocking, but the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the supply of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, and the source of supplementation is uncertain [7][8][9] - **Demand**: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, and the capacity reduction is not obvious, which supports the feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - month. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio and a high feed addition ratio. The downstream transactions of soybean meal are apparently light, but the pick - up is good [9]