Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Sugar Data Daily [3] - Date: October 23, 2025 [4] - Analyst: Xie Wei, with futures qualification number F03087820 and investment consulting number Z0019508 [4] Group 2: Sugar Price Data Domestic Spot Prices - In Nanning warehouse, Guangxi, the price is 5800 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan, with a basis of 374 yuan to SR01, up 2 yuan [4] - In Kunming, the price is 5730 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan, with a basis of 404 yuan to SR01, up 2 yuan [4] - In Dali, Yunnan, the price is 5575 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan, with a basis of 289 yuan to SR01, down 13 yuan [4] - In Rizhao, Shandong, the price is 5870 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 344 yuan to SR01, up 12 yuan [4] Domestic Futures Prices - SR01 is 5426 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; SR01 - 05 is 43 [4] - SR05 is 5383 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [4] International Data - The exchange rate of RMB to USD is 7.1416, up 0.0036; ICE raw sugar主力 is 15.24, unchanged [4] - The exchange rate of Brazilian real to RMB is 1.2818, up 0.0212; London white sugar主力 is 573, up 3 [4] - The exchange rate of Indian rupee to RMB is 0.084, down 0.0004; Brent crude oil主力 is 61.66, unchanged [4] Group 3: Core View - Typhoons around the National Day have adversely affected sugarcane harvesting and production in South China, with sugarcane lodging and flooding in the producing areas. Also, there is a seasonal upward momentum for sugar prices during the short - term gap between old and new crops after the festival. In the medium term, the rain - heat conditions in the southern main producing areas are suitable this year, and the sugarcane growth is very good. After the new sugar is launched, the expected rebound space is relatively limited [4] Group 4: Related Charts - Charts show domestic white sugar industrial inventory, Brazilian sugar out - of - quota import profit, Liuzhou - 01 basis, and Zhengzhou sugar 1 - 5 month spread [5][6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Copper, Carbonate Lithium [1] - **Bearish**: Aluminum Oxide, Glass, Asphalt [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Precious Metals, Silver, Electrolytic Aluminum, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Tin, Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Bean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Fuel Oil, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, PF, PVC, High - Concentration Alkali [1] - **Wait - and - See**: Crude Oil, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1] Core Views - In the short term, the stock index is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US leaders' meeting during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of the month. The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - Market risk appetite recovery may suppress precious metals, but factors such as the continued US government shutdown and the expected interest rate cut by the Fed in October will support the gold price, so the gold price is expected to enter an oscillating trend [1]. - Global trade frictions are repeated, copper prices fluctuate more, and with the continuous fermentation of copper mine supply disturbances and the improvement of macro - liquidity at home and abroad, copper prices are expected to run strongly [1]. - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are mixed, and the price is expected to oscillate. The domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released, and the fundamentals are weak, putting pressure on the spot price [1]. - The US government shutdown continues, increasing macro - risks. Although the Sino - US trade situation has eased, there are still subsequent disturbances. The short - term opening of the export window has supported the domestic zinc price [1]. - The Sino - US trade friction has slightly eased, and attention should be paid to the statements and negotiation progress of both sides. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut at the end of the month remains high. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and attention should be paid to the quota approval in 2026 in the fourth quarter [1]. - The short - term substantial impact of Indonesia's ban on ore exports is not large, but the supply risk of tin ore is expected to be strong, and the demand is supported by the AI trend, so it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - to - long term [1]. - The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy storage demand is strong. Although the supply production has increased, the overall demand is large, so the price of carbonate lithium is bullish [1]. - The industrial drivers of rebar and hot - rolled coil are not clear, and the valuation is low, so it is not recommended to participate in directional trading. The near - month iron ore is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for the far - month [1]. - The direct demand for manganese silicon is good, but the supply is high, the inventory is at a high level, and the price is under pressure to oscillate. The short - term production profit of ferrosilicon is not good, the cost support is strengthening, the direct demand is good, and there are macro - level benefits [1]. - The supply and demand of glass are supported, and in the short term, sentiment is the main factor. The downward space of the price is limited, and the price fluctuation is strengthening. Soda ash follows glass, with a large supply surplus pressure and the price under pressure [1]. - The news that Indonesia will regulate (reduce) exports to meet the raw material demand for B50 next year has a bullish support for the far - month palm oil contracts. The high inventory in Malaysia in September and high exports in October are intertwined, and the near - month lacks new drivers for the time being [1]. - The Sino - US trade dispute is repeated. The selling pressure of US soybeans restricts the US soybean price, which brings pressure to the domestic soybean oil price from the cost side. However, the expectation of soybean oil inventory reduction also supports the market [1]. - The Canadian foreign minister's visit to China is expected to negotiate on the anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed, which may bring bearish speculation. The domestic rapeseed is still in short supply, and the rapeseed oil inventory is continuously decreasing from a high level [1]. - The expansion of Xinjiang's cotton spinning capacity and the decrease in spinning profits lead to great uncertainty in the cotton demand in the new year. The current futures price has fully priced in the selling pressure of new crops, and the downward space is limited, but the new crop basis and futures price may continue to be under pressure [1]. - Typhoons around the National Day have an adverse impact on the sugarcane harvest and output in South China. There is a seasonal upward momentum for sugar prices in the short term, but the rebound space is limited after the new sugar is launched [1]. - The uncertainty of Sino - US trade policy and the abundant domestic soybean meal supply bring a pessimistic market expectation, but the current poor profitability of domestic soybean purchases may affect the purchase progress, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish on the single - side [1]. - The trading logic of pulp lies in the trading of old warehouse receipts of the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the futures price is under great pressure [1]. - The spot price of logs is firm, and it is not cost - effective to short after the futures price drops sharply, so it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - The spot price of live pigs has stabilized, but it is necessary to wait for changes in the slaughter volume and weight. The futures price is still at a premium to the spot price, and the short - term trend is uncertain [1]. - OPEC+ continues to increase production, the geopolitical situation cools down, the demand enters the off - season, and the US attitude towards tariffs on China softens, so the prices of crude oil and fuel oil are expected to be bearish or oscillate [1]. - The short - term supply - demand contradiction of asphalt is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan for construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1]. - US tariffs affect the demand for natural rubber, the weather in the producing areas is gradually normal, the supply is expected to increase, and the overall atmosphere in the commodity market is weak [1]. - OPEC+ continues to increase production, but the fundamentals of butadiene are tight. The supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, the downstream trading is weakening, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction [1]. - The fundamentals and sentiment of PTA are declining, the PXN has significantly rebounded, and the domestic PTA production has decreased due to unit inspections [1]. - The port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China is still low, the overseas import is expected to decline, and the domestic unit commissioning is putting pressure on the price. After the National Day, the peak season for polyester is coming to an end [1]. - The short - fiber plants are gradually resuming production, the willingness to deliver warehouse receipts has weakened, and the short - fiber price continues to fluctuate closely with the cost [1]. - The price of benzene in Asia is still weak, the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have decreased, the arbitrage window from Northeast Asia to the US is still closed, and the future inventory of styrene is expected to accumulate further [1]. - The export sentiment of urea has eased, the domestic demand is insufficient, and there is support from anti - involution policies and the cost side [1]. - The price center of the crude oil market has slightly declined, the maintenance intensity has weakened, the downstream demand is slowly increasing, and the price of PF is oscillating strongly [1]. - The support of maintenance for some products is limited, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the futures price returns to the fundamentals and oscillates weakly [1]. - The PVC futures price returns to the fundamentals, the maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period, the supply pressure is large, and there are many near - month warehouse receipts, so the futures price oscillates weakly [1]. - Many alumina projects in Guangxi are planned to be put into production, the subsequent maintenance concentration is decreasing, the digestion of warehouse receipts is not smooth, and the price of high - concentration alkali is inverted [1]. - OPEC's production increase, the weakening of international CP/FEI prices, and the tight domestic butane fundamentals drive the valuation repair of PG prices [1]. - The price of container shipping to Europe has fallen to a relatively low level, and there is a possibility of a low - level rebound. It is gradually entering the contract - changing rhythm, and the freight rate is close to the full - cost line, so it is expected to stop falling and stabilize [1] Summaries by Catalog Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: Expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, pay attention to the Sino - US leaders' meeting during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of the month and the repeated tariff policies [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1] - **Precious Metals**: Market risk appetite recovery may suppress precious metals, but factors such as the continued US government shutdown and the expected interest rate cut by the Fed in October will support the gold price, so it is expected to enter an oscillating trend [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Global trade frictions are repeated, copper prices fluctuate more, and with the continuous fermentation of copper mine supply disturbances and the improvement of macro - liquidity at home and abroad, copper prices are expected to run strongly [1] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The fundamentals are mixed, and the price is expected to oscillate [1] - **Aluminum Oxide**: The domestic production capacity continues to be released, and the fundamentals are weak, putting pressure on the spot price [1] - **Zinc**: The US government shutdown continues, increasing macro - risks. Although the Sino - US trade situation has eased, there are still subsequent disturbances. The short - term opening of the export window has supported the domestic zinc price [1] - **Stainless Steel**: The Sino - US trade friction has slightly eased, and attention should be paid to the statements and negotiation progress of both sides. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut at the end of the month remains high. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and attention should be paid to the quota approval in 2026 in the fourth quarter [1] - **Tin**: The short - term substantial impact of Indonesia's ban on ore exports is not large, but the supply risk of tin ore is expected to be strong, and the demand is supported by the AI trend, so it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - to - long term [1] - **Silicon**: Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, Southwest start - up is weaker than in previous years, and the impact of the dry season is weakened. Polysilicon production in October has increased more than expected, and the demand for organic silicon is weak [1] - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of production capacity reduction in the medium - to - long term. In October, the supply increases while the demand decreases, and the anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, so the market sentiment has subsided [1] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy storage demand is strong. Although the supply production has increased, the overall demand is large, so it is bullish [1] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The industrial drivers are not clear, and the valuation is low, so it is not recommended to participate in directional trading [1] - **Iron Ore**: The near - month is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for the far - month [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The direct demand is good, but the supply is high, the inventory is at a high level, and the price is under pressure to oscillate [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The short - term production profit is not good, the cost support is strengthening, the direct demand is good, and there are macro - level benefits [1] - **Glass**: The supply and demand are supported, and in the short term, sentiment is the main factor. The downward space of the price is limited, and the price fluctuation is strengthening [1] - **Soda Ash**: Follows glass, with a large supply surplus pressure and the price under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the price rebounded to fill the gap before the holiday, it reached a relatively high level. It may challenge the previous highs again, but the difficulty of breakthrough is large. It depends on whether there are new statements about "anti - involution" in the domestic important meeting communique this week [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The news that Indonesia will regulate (reduce) exports to meet the raw material demand for B50 next year has a bullish support for the far - month contracts. The high inventory in Malaysia in September and high exports in October are intertwined, and the near - month lacks new drivers for the time being [1] - **Soybean Oil**: The Sino - US trade dispute is repeated. The selling pressure of US soybeans restricts the US soybean price, which brings pressure to the domestic soybean oil price from the cost side. However, the expectation of soybean oil inventory reduction also supports the market [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian foreign minister's visit to China is expected to negotiate on the anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed, which may bring bearish speculation. The domestic rapeseed is still in short supply, and the rapeseed oil inventory is continuously decreasing from a high level [1] - **Cotton**: The expansion of Xinjiang's cotton spinning capacity and the decrease in spinning profits lead to great uncertainty in the cotton demand in the new year. The current futures price has fully priced in the selling pressure of new crops, and the downward space is limited, but the new crop basis and futures price may continue to be under pressure [1] - **Sugar**: Typhoons around the National Day have an adverse impact on the sugarcane harvest and output in South China. There is a seasonal upward momentum for sugar prices in the short term, but the rebound space is limited after the new sugar is launched [1] - **Corn**: The market is concerned about the selling pressure of the spot in the producing areas after the end of October. However, the acquisition attitude towards high - quality corn in Northeast China is positive, and the downward space of the C01 contract is expected to be limited [1] - **Bean Meal**: The uncertainty of Sino - US trade policy and the abundant domestic soybean meal supply bring a pessimistic market expectation, but the current poor profitability of domestic soybean purchases may affect the purchase progress, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish on the single - side [1] - **Pulp**: The trading logic lies in the trading of old warehouse receipts of the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the futures price is under great pressure [1] - **Logs**: The spot price is firm, and it is not cost - effective to short after the futures price drops sharply, so it is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Live Pigs**: The spot price has stabilized, but it is necessary to wait for changes in the slaughter volume and weight. The futures price is still at a premium to the spot price, and the short - term trend is uncertain [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, the geopolitical situation cools down, the demand enters the off - season, and the US attitude towards tariffs on China softens, so the prices are expected to be bearish or oscillate [1] - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan for construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1] - **Natural Rubber**: US tariffs affect the demand, the weather in the producing areas is gradually normal, the supply is expected to increase, and the overall atmosphere in the commodity market is weak [1] - **BR Rubber**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, but the fundamentals of butadiene are tight. The supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, the downstream trading is weakening, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction [1] - **PTA**: The fundamentals and sentiment are declining, the PXN has significantly rebounded, and the domestic PTA production has decreased due to unit inspections [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory in East China is still low, the overseas import is expected to decline, and the domestic unit commissioning is putting pressure on the price. After the National Day, the peak season for polyester is coming to an end [1] - **Short Fiber**: The plants are gradually resuming production, the willingness to deliver warehouse receipts has weakened, and the price continues to fluctuate closely with the cost [1] - **Styrene**: The price of benzene in Asia is still weak, the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have decreased, the arbitrage window from Northeast Asia to the US is still closed, and the future inventory is expected to accumulate further [1] - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased, the domestic demand is insufficient, and there is support from anti - involution policies and the cost side [1] - **PF**: The price center of the crude oil market has slightly declined, the maintenance intensity has weakened, the downstream demand is slowly increasing, and the price oscillates strongly [1] - **PVC**: The futures price returns to the fundamentals, the maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period, the supply pressure is large, and there are many near - month warehouse receipts, so it oscillates weakly [1] - **High - Concentration Alkali**: Many alumina

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents the daily data of stock index options, including the performance of major indices, trading volume and open interest of index options, and volatility analysis of different indices [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.36% to 3916.33 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.06%, the ChiNext Index rose 3.02%, the Northbound 50 Index rose 2.04%, the STAR 50 Index rose 2.81%, the Wind All - A Index rose 1.62%, the Wind A500 Index rose 1.66%, and the CSI A500 Index rose 1.65%. A - share trading volume reached 1.89 trillion yuan, compared with 1.75 trillion yuan the previous day [4]. - **Specific Index Data**: The closing price of the SSE 50 was 3007.2634, with a 1.09% increase and a trading volume of 55.30 billion yuan and a turnover of 1.4727 billion. The CSI 300 had a 1.53% increase and a trading volume of 237.25 billion yuan, and the CSI 1000 closed at 7344.0468, up 1.45% with a trading volume of 348.159 billion yuan [3]. 3.2 CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading Situation - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For the SSE 50, the call option trading volume was 2.27 million contracts, the put option trading volume was 2.54 million contracts, the call option open interest was 3.28 million contracts, and the put option open interest was 3.65 million contracts. For the CSI 300, the call option trading volume was 0.64 million contracts, the put option trading volume was 14.26 million contracts, the call option open interest was 6.20 million contracts, and the put option open interest was 9.40 million contracts. For the CSI 1000, the call option trading volume was 20.38 million contracts, the put option trading volume was 11.42 million contracts, the call option open interest was 8.97 million contracts, and the put option open interest was 12.36 million contracts [3]. - **PCR**: The SSE 50's trading volume PCR was 0.87, and the open - interest PCR was 0.69. The CSI 300's trading volume PCR was 0.77, and the open - interest PCR was 0.806. The CSI 1000's trading volume PCR was 0.79, and the open - interest PCR was 0.94 [3]. 3.3 Volatility Analysis - **Historical Volatility and Volatility Cone**: The report shows the historical volatility and volatility cone for the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000, including different percentile values and the current value at different time points [3][4]. - **Volatility Smile Curve**: It also presents the volatility smile curves for the next - month at - the - money implied volatility of the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 [3][4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - The uncertainty of Sino-US trade policy and the reality of loose domestic soybean meal supply bring pessimistic market expectations. However, the current poor profit of domestic ship purchases is expected to affect the progress of ship purchases. It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the unilateral market. Later, attention should be paid to Sino-US policies and South American weather [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - The basis of the main contract of soybean meal in Dalian on October 21 was 111, up 6; in Tianjin it was 91; in Rizhao it was 81. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Zhangjiagang was 11, in Dongguan was 11, in Zhanjiang was 61, up 6, and in Fangcheng was 61, up 6. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 85, down 4, and MJ - 5 was 146, down 13 [6]. 3.2 Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 419, up 2; the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal on the main contract was 568, up 23 [7]. 3.3 Supply Situation - Affected by less rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas after August, the estimated yield per acre of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season by USDA still has some room for downward adjustment. Due to the US government shutdown, the USDA crop growth report was postponed. Brazilian soybean planting has started, and as of October 14, the sowing rate was 11.1%, higher than 9.1% of the same period last year but lower than the five - year average of 16.9%. In October, domestic soybeans are expected to start destocking, but the domestic soybean meal supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, and the source of supplementation is uncertain [8][9]. 3.4 Demand Situation - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, and the capacity reduction is not obvious, which supports the feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio and a high feed addition ratio, but the downstream trading volume of soybean meal is light, and the pick - up is good [9]. 3.5 Inventory Situation - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level. This week, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased due to the holiday, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory of feed enterprises decreased [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The currently issued sanctions have little impact on European routes. European routes are in the regular year - end price - holding stage. The first round of defensive price - holding in late October to stop the price decline has shown initial results, and it has entered the second round in early November. There will be multiple rounds of year - end price - holding in the next two months, so the seasonal expectations are in advance. However, the changes in Sino - US relations, end - of - month loading conditions, and November empty - sailing situations need to be monitored. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Spot Freight Index**: The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is 1310, with a 12.92% increase; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 973, with a - 4.11% decrease. For different routes, SCFI - US West has a 31.88% increase, SCFIS - US West has a - 1.60% decrease, SCFI - US East has a 16.35% increase, SCFI - Northwest Europe has a 7.21% increase, SCFIS - Northwest Europe has a - 1.43% decrease, and SCFI - Mediterranean has a 3.53% increase [4]. - **Contract Freight Index**: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2608, etc., their current values range from 1135.0 to 1769.3, with corresponding increases of 2.31% - 5.19% [4]. - **Position and Spread**: Positions of different contracts have different changes, such as a decrease of 32 in EC2606 position and an increase of 2333 in EC2412 position. The month - spreads of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 have changes of - 52.4, 41.3, and 78.6 respectively [4]. 3.2 Spot Price - In late October, Maersk's quote was 1800 - 1900, HPL's was 1900, CMA's was 2100, etc. In early November, HPL's quote was 2500, CM's was 2800, etc [6]. 3.3 International News - US Vice - President J.D. Vance is expected to visit Israel next Tuesday to promote the implementation of the cease - fire agreement in the Gaza war. There are still uncertainties about "Hamas disarmament" and "Gaza demilitarization" [5]. - Egypt claims to have lost over $9 billion due to Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping [5]. - The US may soon announce a long list of tariff exemptions, and intense lobbying is expected [5]. - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia next week to prevent the escalation of the Sino - US tariff war [5]. - White House envoy Steve Witkoff will go to the Middle East to follow up on the Gaza agreement [5]. - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has postponed the discussion of the "Net Zero Framework" (NZF) by one year [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, after the easing of the Sino - US trade situation, positive news such as Trump's planned visit to China in early 2026 and the European joint statement on Ukraine have boosted market risk appetite, putting pressure on precious metal prices. The transfer of inventory from New York to London has relieved the physical tightness of London silver. It is expected that precious metal prices may shift to a high - level wide - range oscillation. [6] - In the long - term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and major - power competition intensifies, increasing the long - term credit risk of the US dollar. The long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to move up, and long - term investors are advised to go long on dips. [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking of Domestic and Foreign Precious Metals - **Price and Price Changes**: On October 21, 2025, compared with October 20, London gold spot rose 2.5% to $4340.36 per ounce, London silver spot rose 0.4% to $51.72 per ounce. COMEX gold rose 2.5% to $4355.80 per ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.6% to $50.70 per ounce. Domestic gold and silver futures also showed varying degrees of increase. [5] - **Spread and Spread Changes**: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price increased by 48.5%, and the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price decreased by 31.8%. The spread of gold domestic - foreign (TD - London) decreased by 21.4%, and the spread of silver domestic - foreign (TD - London) decreased by 1.2%. The SHFE and COMEX gold - silver ratios both increased by 1.9%. [5] 3.2 Position and Inventory Data - **Position Data**: From October 17 to October 20, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR position rose 1.09% to 1058.66 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV position rose 1.76% to 15769.7749 tons. The non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver also showed different degrees of change. [5] - **Inventory Data**: On October 21, 2025, compared with October 20, SHFE gold inventory rose 2.32% to 86565.00 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory decreased 12.44% to 749362.00 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory decreased 0.19%, and COMEX silver inventory decreased 0.59%. [5] 3.3 Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Stock Market Data - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate**: From October 20 to October 21, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate decreased by 0.06% to 7.09, the US dollar index rose 0.07% to 98.62, the 2 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged at 3.46%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.50% to 4.00%. [5] - **Stock Market and Commodity Market**: The VIX index decreased by 12.27%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.07% to 6735.13, and NYMEX crude oil decreased by 0.56% to $56.93. [5] 3.4 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Review**: On October 21, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 2.02% to 994.06 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 0.2% to 11805 yuan per kilogram. [5] - **Short - term Outlook**: Precious metal prices may still need some adjustment in the short - term, but due to factors such as the ongoing US government shutdown and the expected interest - rate cut in October, prices are unlikely to continue to decline significantly. Domestic silver prices may be relatively resistant to decline, and prices are expected to shift to a high - level wide - range oscillation. [6] - **Long - term Outlook**: In the long - term, the center of gold prices is likely to continue to move up, and long - term investors are advised to go long on dips. [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The steel market is weakly stable and fluctuating, with the total steel inventory returning to destocking, but some varieties still have serious inventory accumulation. The market participants are cautious, and the demand lacks explosive power. It is not recommended to participate in directional speculative trading for now [3]. - The valuation of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is low, and the cost is supported. The production profit of double - silicon is poor in the short term, and the supply is difficult to increase. The demand for double - silicon is strong due to high - level hot metal. The inventory of ferrosilicon is normal, and the subsequent accumulation pressure is not large. It is recommended to go long on ferrosilicon at low prices [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the steel mills have not responded to the second price increase. The supply of coking coal after the festival has not increased significantly, and the hot metal output remains high. The market is still in a state of shock. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. - For iron ore, there is no obvious driving force in the short term. The supply is not significantly affected, and the high - level hot metal may lead to over - supply of steel in the second half of the year. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On October 21, the closing prices of far - month contracts RB2605, HC2605, I2605, J2605, and JM2605 were 3104.00 yuan/ton, 3236.00 yuan/ton, 749.50 yuan/ton, 1817.50 yuan/ton, and 1250.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10.00 yuan/ton, - 9.00 yuan/ton, 0.50 yuan/ton, - 47.00 yuan/ton, and - 47.00 yuan/ton, and the corresponding percentage changes were - 0.32%, - 0.28%, 0.07%, - 2.52%, and - 3.62% [1]. - The closing prices of near - month contracts RB2601, HC2601, I2601, J2601, and JM2601 were 3047.00 yuan/ton, 3219.00 yuan/ton, 769.50 yuan/ton, 1672.00 yuan/ton, and 1177.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 11.00 yuan/ton, - 10.00 yuan/ton, 1.00 yuan/ton, - 47.00 yuan/ton, and - 42.50 yuan/ton, and the corresponding percentage changes were - 0.36%, - 0.31%, 0.13%, - 2.73%, and - 3.49% [1]. - The cross - month spreads of RB2601 - 2605, HC2601 - 2605, I2601 - 2605, J2601 - 2605, and JM2601 - 2605 on October 21 were - 57.00 yuan/ton, - 17.00 yuan/ton, 20.00 yuan/ton, - 145.50 yuan/ton, and - 73.00 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The spread/ratio/profit data on October 21: the coil - to - rebar spread was 172.00 yuan/ton, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.96, the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.42, the rebar disk profit was - 116.43 yuan/ton, and the coking disk profit was 106.59 yuan/ton [1]. Spot Market - On October 21, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, Guangzhou rebar, Tangshan billet, and the Platts Index were 3210.00 yuan/ton, 3090.00 yuan/ton, 3230.00 yuan/ton, 2930.00 yuan/ton, and 104.50 respectively, with changes of 0.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, 10.00 yuan/ton, and - 0.80 [1]. - The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, Guangzhou hot - rolled coil, billet - to - product spread, and Rizhao Port PB were 3250.00 yuan/ton, 3300.00 yuan/ton, 3220.00 yuan/ton, 280.00 yuan/ton, and 776.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, - 30.00 yuan/ton, - 10.00 yuan/ton, and - 4.00 yuan/ton [1]. - The spot prices of Qingdao Port Super Special Powder, another powder, Ganjimao Coking Concentrate, Qingdao Port Quasi - First - Grade Coke, and Qingdao Port PB were 703.00 yuan/ton, 745.00 yuan/ton, 1310.00 yuan/ton, 1480.00 yuan/ton, and 780.00 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, 50.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, and 0.00 yuan/ton [1]. - The basis data on October 21: the HC main contract basis was 31.00 yuan/ton, the RB main contract basis was 163.00 yuan/ton, the I main contract basis was 48.00 yuan/ton, the J main contract basis was - 45.60 yuan/ton, and the JM main contract basis was 163.00 yuan/ton [1]. Market Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Steel**: The market is weakly stable and fluctuating. It is recommended to wait and see or adopt an oscillatory trading idea for single - side trading. Observe the opportunity to go long on the coil - to - rebar spread when the 01 - contract spread is below 150 for disk arbitrage. Roll and take profit for cash - and - carry reverse arbitrage [3]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: It is recommended to go long on ferrosilicon at low prices [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Wait and see for single - side trading [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Wait and see [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term supply - demand mismatch drives up the price of lithium carbonate; in the medium - long term, increased production may suppress futures prices. High demand stimulates downstream to increase lithium carbonate purchases, leading to a reduction in social inventory [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 74,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan/ton [1][2] Lithium Futures Contracts - Lithium carbonate 2510 closed at 75,800 yuan/ton, up 0.32%; lithium carbonate 2511 closed at 75,580 yuan/ton, down 0.42%; lithium carbonate 2512 closed at 75,920 yuan/ton, down 0.29%; lithium carbonate 2601 closed at 75,980 yuan/ton, down 0.26%; lithium carbonate 2602 closed at 75,800 yuan/ton, down 0.16% [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 854 yuan, up 3 yuan; lithium mica (Li20:1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,115 yuan, up 15 yuan; lithium mica (Li20:2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,845 yuan, up 20 yuan; lithium phosphate aluminum stone (Li20:6% - 7%) is 6,360 yuan; lithium phosphate aluminum stone (Li20:7% - 8%) is 7,520 yuan, down 90 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 34,075 yuan, up 75 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 156,800 yuan, up 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 136,000 yuan, up 1,000 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 136,150 yuan, up 200 yuan [2] Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract production is - 1,880 yuan, up 60 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 340 yuan, down 160 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 400 yuan, down 160 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 132,658 tons, down 2,143 tons; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 34,283 tons, down 464 tons; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 57,735 tons, down 2,030 tons; other inventory (weekly, tons) is 40,640 tons, up 350 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 29,892 tons, down 813 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 74,936 yuan, and the profit is - 1,870 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 77,947 yuan, and the profit is - 6,903 yuan [3] Technological Breakthrough - Chinese researchers have solved the interface contact problem of all - solid - state metal lithium batteries. The research team led by Huang Xuejie has developed an anion regulation technology, and the relevant research results were published in the international academic journal "Nature - Sustainable Development" on the 7th [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, but there may be a shortage of delivery resources for Russian needles in 2026. The futures market may be priced based on Russian needles and high - quality softwood pulp. The 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy is maintained [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 21, 2025, SP2601 was 5170 with a daily increase of 0.27% and a weekly increase of 0.19%; SP2511 was 4854 with a daily decrease of 0.08% and a weekly increase of 0.17%; SP2605 was 5226 with a daily increase of 0.27% and a weekly decrease of 0.08% [6] - **Spot Prices**: On the same day, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 2500 (no daily or weekly change), Russian softwood pulp was 5100 (no daily change, 2.00% weekly increase), and hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250 (no daily or weekly change) [6] - **Foreign Market Quotes**: In October 2025, the quote for Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton (down 20 dollars/ton compared to the previous period), Nisshin Goldfish was 530 dollars/ton (up 20 dollars/ton), and Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton (unchanged) [6] - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [6] 3.2 Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply** - **Import Volume**: In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 tons, a 12.54% increase from August; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 135.6 tons, a 7.79% increase [6] - **Domestic Production**: The domestic production of hardwood pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated in different periods, with no obvious trend [6] - **Shipping Volume to China**: The shipping volume of pulp to China in August 2025 was 162, a 4.50% increase [6] - **Inventory** - **Port Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the pulp inventory in China's main ports was 207.4 tons, a 0.1% decrease from the previous period, showing a narrow - range de - stocking trend [6] - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: It showed a downward trend in different periods [6] - **Demand**: The production of finished paper products such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard fluctuated slightly, and the overall demand for paper products remained stable. The positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [6] 3.3 Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On October 21, 2025, the Russian needle basis was 246 with a quantile level of 0.911; the Silver Star basis was 646 with a quantile level of 0.878 [6] - **Import Profit**: The import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 59 with a quantile level of 0.511; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94 with a quantile level of 0.555 [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PTA supply side is contracting, with Ningbo Yisheng Petrochemical Phase 4 reducing its load by 50% until the end of the month. PTA processing fees remain low, and industry profits are still constrained by overcapacity due to new device commissions. Polyester downstream load remains above 90%, but high load has not led to significant inventory accumulation. With the end of the peak seasons, there are concerns that textile and clothing demand will be affected by the trade war. PTA's operating rate may decline further, and it is difficult for PTA to have an independent market due to the falling crude oil prices. Bottle chips and short fibers continue to fluctuate with costs [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Index Changes - PTA spot price increased from 4315 to 4320, PTA closing price rose from 4384 to 4414 [2] - MEG inner - market price decreased from 4100 to 4075, MEG closing price increased from 4003 to 4004 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6355 to 6340, short - fiber basis increased from 199 to 218 [2] - 11 - 12 spread increased from 4 to 8, polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246 [2] - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price decreased from 5450 to 5400, the spread between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 905 to 940 [2] - East China water bottle chip price decreased from 5602 to 5594, hot - filled polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5602 to 5594 [2] - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5702 to 5694, outer - market water bottle chip price remained at 740 [2] - Bottle chip spot processing fee decreased from 539 to 535, T32S pure polyester yarn price remained at 10280 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3925 to 3940, polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained at 16350 [2] - Cotton 328 price increased from 14480 to 14530, polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1663 to 1654 [2] - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained at 6920, hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 657 to 661 [2] - Primary low - melting - point short - fiber price remained at 7310 [2] Market Conditions - Short fiber: The main futures of polyester staple fiber rose 2 to 6070. The spot market is mainly price negotiation by production factories, with traders' prices fluctuating in a range. Downstream buyers purchase as needed, and market transactions are cautious. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market is 6090 - 6460, in the North China market is 6210 - 6580, and in the Fujian market is 6060 - 6400 [2] - Bottle chips: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is 5570 - 5710 yuan/ton, with the average price unchanged from the previous working day. PTA and bottle chip futures fluctuate slightly, most supply - side offers are stable, downstream terminal procurement enthusiasm is average, and market trading atmosphere is light [2] Load and Production and Sales - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) decreased from 93.90% to 94.40%, polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 77.00% to 66.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained at 63.50%, regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 51.50% to 51.00% [3]