1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The "anti - involution" sentiment has affected the black metal market. For different products, the market situation and influencing factors vary. Although the "anti - involution" has catalyzed short - term market fluctuations, the actual supply and demand fundamentals and policy expectations still play important roles in determining the market trends [5][7][64][111] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. PART ONE: Rebar - **Supply**: It is neutral. Iron - water production decreased slightly this week. Long - process steel mills still have good profits, and short - process production may fluctuate due to the power peak season. The supply of steel products is expected to remain stable with a slight decline, and attention should be paid to administrative production restrictions [7] - **Demand**: It is neutral. Market fluctuations have increased recently, and the demand for some steel products is slightly stronger than others. The demand for hot - rolled, cold - rolled, and medium - thick plates is better than in previous years, while the demand for building materials is slightly weaker. The coal - coke price is firm, but the coal price may lack the momentum to continue rising [7] - **Inventory**: It is bullish. The total inventory level is low, and the inventory accumulation during the off - season is not significant, which may trigger unexpected restocking [7] - **Basis/Spread**: It is bearish. The basis has shrunk significantly, and the spot in some areas has returned to a discount. As of Friday, the basis of rb2510 in the East China region (Hangzhou) was 28, a decrease of 30 compared with the previous week [7] - **Profit**: It is bearish. Long - process steel production still has profits, while short - process production profits are unstable, and the production reduction has increased slightly [7] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The production links in the industry chain have meager profits, with relatively low relative valuations and absolute valuations not reaching the bottom [7] - **Macro and Policy**: It is bullish. Due to the expectations of domestic conferences in July and US interest rate cuts in September, market risk appetite has increased, and short - term funds are willing to enter the market [7] - **Investment View**: It is to wait and see. If no substantial policies are introduced in the short term, the positive impact on profits and product prices may not last long. The basis of black - sector varieties has been shrinking recently [7] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, observe the pressure level; for arbitrage, take profit on short - term long positions in the spread between hot - rolled and rebar; for cash - and - carry, take profit on reverse arbitrage and enter long positions in batches [7] 3.2. PART TWO: Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: It is neutral. The supply and demand of the five major steel products have both increased, but attention should be paid to whether the pressure on non - five - major steel products is increasing. The daily average iron - water production has decreased, and the steel - mill profitability rate is still good, but there are signs of weakening iron - water production [64] - **Coking Coal Supply**: It is neutral. Domestic coal mines are gradually resuming production, the port clearance has recovered slowly, and the sentiment in the seaborne coal market has improved [64] - **Coke Supply**: It is neutral. Coke production has continued to decline this week, and the coking profit has decreased. However, the spot sentiment of coal and coke has strengthened due to downstream restocking [64] - **Inventory**: It is bearish. Downstream procurement has started, but the rate of total inventory reduction has narrowed, and the overall fundamentals are gradually weakening [64] - **Basis/Spread**: It is bearish. Coke has not yet started to increase prices, and the warehouse - receipt cost has changed [64] - **Profit**: It is neutral. Steel - mill profitability is still good, but coking profit has decreased, and the cost of coking coal has increased [64] - **Summary**: It is bearish. Although the "anti - involution" policy has boosted market sentiment, the current situation is not comparable to the 2015 supply - side reform. The policy may lead to a reduction in demand rather than supply for the black - metal industry. The industry data shows signs of weakening, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and establish cash - and - carry positions for industrial customers [64] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, industrial customers should actively engage in cash - and - carry hedging; for arbitrage, wait and see. Pay attention to changes in coal - mine production policies, steel demand, and macro - level disturbances [64] 3.3. PART THREE: Iron Ore - **Supply**: It is neutral. The end - of - season rush for iron - ore shipments has ended, and shipments from Australia and Brazil have declined rapidly in the first week of July, while shipments from India have increased significantly. Seasonally, shipments will continue to decline in July, but the increase in arrivals in July will relieve the pressure on near - month contracts [112] - **Demand**: It is neutral. Steel - mill iron - water production has decreased significantly this week, mainly due to the decline in finished - product demand in some areas and seasonal blast - furnace inspections. It is expected that the daily average iron - water production will remain at a high level of around 240 in July. The demand for steel products has shown an off - season but not weak state recently, and the negative feedback logic based on weakening downstream demand has not been supported by current data [112] - **Inventory**: It is bearish. The inventory of 47 ports, the amount of ships waiting at ports, and the in - plant inventory have all increased, with a total inventory increase of 124 tons. There is still a risk of inventory accumulation with the decline in iron - water production and high arrivals [112] - **Profit**: It is neutral. Steel - mill profits are still at a high level, so the iron - water production can remain at a high level in the short term [112] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The iron - water production is at a high level, and the short - term valuation is relatively neutral [112] - **Summary**: It is neutral. The iron - water production has decreased significantly this week. The basis of iron ore has bottomed out and rebounded under the "anti - involution" trading sentiment. The "anti - involution" mainly affects the new - energy and photovoltaic industries, and its impact on the black - metal industry is mainly emotional. It is not recommended to short the black - metal market in the short term [112] - **Investment View**: It is to expect a sideways movement - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, wait and see; for arbitrage, wait and see temporarily. Pay attention to recession trading and the implementation of flat - control policies [113]

Group 1: Interest Rate and Fundamentals - DRO01 closed at 1.31 with a -0.10bp change, DR007 at 1.42 with a -4.52bp change, GC001 at 1.43 with a 28.00bp change, and GC007 at 1.49 with a 0.00bp change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.60 with a -0.90bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change [4] - 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.34 with a -1.20bp change, 5 - year at 1.49 with a -0.40bp change, 10 - year at 1.64 with a 0.20bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.35 with a 5.00bp change [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 6522 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and had 20275 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, resulting in a net withdrawal of 13753 billion yuan [4] - This week, 6522 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature, with 3315 billion, 1310 billion, 985 billion, 572 billion, and 340 billion maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4] - Last week, the inter - bank market liquidity further eased, and the weighted average interest rate of overnight pledged repurchase of deposit - type institutions dropped 4.47bp to 1.315%, hitting a new low since December 2024 [5] Group 2: Stock Index and Market Conditions - The CSI 300 closed at 3982 with a 0.36% change, the SSE 50 at 2740 with a 0.58% change, the CSI 500 at 5911 with a -0.19% change, and the CSI 1000 at 6312 with a -0.48% change [6] - The trading volume of IF was 126007 with a 71.2% change, IH was 66223 with a 93.8% change, IC was 99284 with a 52.8% change, and IM was 250280 with a 53.6% change [6] - The positions of IF were 266026 with an 11.3% change, IH were 97738 with a 21.2% change, IC were 236528 with a 7.3% change, and IM were 351204 with a 9.1% change [6] - Last week, the CSI 300 rose 1.54% to 3982.2, the SSE 50 rose 1.21% to 2740.4, the CSI 500 rose 0.81% to 5911.4, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.56% to 6312.2 [6] - Last week, the daily trading volumes of A - shares were 14056 billion, 13865 billion, 13122 billion, 12450 billion, and 13540 billion yuan, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 414.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] - As of July 3, the margin trading purchase amount of A - shares accounted for 9.6% of the total market trading volume, at the 75.4% quantile level in the past decade [6] - Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, last week, steel (5.1%), building materials (4%), banks (3.8%), pharmaceutical biology (3.6%), and comprehensive (2.8%) led the gains, while computer (-1.3%), non - bank finance (-0.7%), transportation (-0.2%), commercial retail (-0.2%), and communication (-0.1%) led the losses [6] Group 3: Market Outlook - Domestically, after the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, the "involution - style" competition has attracted high attention. The market expects more special policies to curb excessive competition, and the supply - side of photovoltaic, steel, and cement may improve [7] - Overseas, US President Trump said on July 3 that he would start sending letters to trading partners on the 4th to set unilateral tariff rates, and countries would start paying new tariffs from August 1st, with tariff rates ranging from 10% - 20% to 60% - 70% [7] - In the short term, although market liquidity is okay, there are few positive factors at home and abroad. It is difficult for the stock index to break through upwards and may show a volatile pattern [7] - In the long - term, looking at the second half of the year, the Politburo meeting at the end of July will set the policy tone. Given the possible further deterioration of real estate sales and investment and the overall weakness of consumption, policies are expected to support domestic demand. Meanwhile, the US tariff policy is undetermined, and with the approaching Fed rate - cut time, overseas liquidity and geopolitical changes will bring trading opportunities [7] Group 4: Futures Premium and Discount - IF's premium/discount rates are 14.06% for the current - month contract, 8.57% for the next - month contract, 5.65% for the current - quarter contract, and 4.59% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IH's premium/discount rates are 19.36% for the current - month contract, 7.74% for the next - month contract, 4.13% for the current - quarter contract, and 2.04% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IC's premium/discount rates are 19.16% for the current - month contract, 13.96% for the next - month contract, 12.02% for the current - quarter contract, and 10.01% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IM's premium/discount rates are 24.19% for the current - month contract, 18.19% for the next - month contract, 15.42% for the current - quarter contract, and 13.24% for the next - quarter contract [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, PP, BR rubber, PTA, PG, log [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, treasury bond, silver, steel products (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon), non - ferrous metals (except those mentioned above), agricultural products (cotton, corn, soybean meal, pulp, pig), energy - chemical products (except those mentioned above) [1] 2. Core Views - The market is affected by multiple factors such as macroeconomic data, geopolitical situations, and supply - demand relationships. Different industries and varieties show different trends due to these factors. For example, the strong US non - farm payrolls data has affected the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, which in turn impacts the prices of metals and other commodities. Geopolitical situations like the cooling of the Middle East situation and OPEC+ production decisions also play crucial roles in the energy market [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: In the short term, market trading volume is gradually shrinking slightly, and domestic and foreign positive factors are limited. There is resistance to upward breakthrough, and it may show an oscillating pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: The strong June non - farm payrolls data suppresses the interest - rate cut expectation, which may put downward pressure on the gold price. However, uncertainties in tariff policies and tax - reform bills support the gold price [1] - **Silver**: With tariff uncertainties remaining, the silver price is expected to mainly oscillate [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US non - farm payrolls data far exceeding expectations suppresses the interest - rate cut expectation, and the overseas squeeze - out risk has cooled down. There is a risk of copper price correction [1] - **Aluminum**: The cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and high prices suppressing downstream demand lead to a risk of aluminum price decline [1] - **Alumina**: The US non - farm payrolls data far exceeding expectations suppresses the interest - rate cut expectation, and the alumina price may run weakly [1] - **Zinc**: The US non - farm payrolls data exceeding expectations and continuous zinc inventory accumulation lead to a risk of zinc price decline [1] - **Nickel**: The cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The slight downward adjustment of the Indonesian nickel - ore premium makes the nickel price rebound weak. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - **Stainless Steel**: After the "anti - involution" in China boosts sentiment, pay attention to tariff progress. Raw material prices are weakening, social inventory is slightly decreasing, and steel - mill production - cut news boosts confidence. The sustainability of the stainless - steel's oscillating rebound remains to be observed [1] - **Tin**: Under the "anti - involution", the glass and photovoltaic industries have production - cut expectations, and the new demand for tin is damaged. In the short term, the supply - demand is weak on both sides, and there is a risk of tin price decline under weak macro - sentiment [1] - **Polysilicon**: There are expectations of photovoltaic supply - side reform in the market, and market sentiment is high [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is no production cut on the supply side. Downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and factory purchases are not active. There is capital gaming [1] Ferrous Metals - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Individual regional steel mills have short - term production - cut behaviors. Temporarily wait and see for digestion [1] - **Iron Ore**: Steel - mill production - cut behaviors suppress the upward space, but short - term high demand provides support below [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: Short - term production increases, demand is okay, supply - demand is relatively loose, cost support is insufficient, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Production increases slightly, demand is okay, and supply - demand is relatively balanced [1] - **Coking Coal**: The high - level meeting mentioned "anti - involution", and the market expects a bull market similar to the 2015 supply - side reform. Although it cannot be compared in all aspects, since it cannot be falsified in the short - term trading, short positions on the futures market should be temporarily avoided. Industrial customers should grasp the opportunity of premium to establish cash - and - carry positions [1] - **Coke**: Similar to coking coal, focus on selling hedging opportunities when the futures price has a premium [1] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro - uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream products, but the inventory pressure is not large. The domestic cotton price is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to run weakly in the later period, it may affect Brazil's new - season sugar - making ratio through the sugar - alcohol price ratio, resulting in higher - than - expected sugar production [1] - **Corn**: Before the new grain is on the market, the supply of old - crop grain is tightening, and the spot price is expected to be firm. The upward pressure on the futures price comes from wheat substitution and policy - based grain releases. The C2509 contract may mainly oscillate. Pay attention to the wheat - corn price difference and subsequent policy - based grain releases [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Under the domestic inventory - accumulation pressure, the basis is under pressure. There is an expectation of a tightening supply - demand balance sheet for US soybeans. In the short term, pay attention to the progress of the Sino - US trade agreement. If no agreement is reached, there is an expectation of inventory reduction for soybean meal in the fourth quarter, and the center of the far - month contract is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, the US soybean price is expected to rise, the premium to fall, and the overall decline space of the futures price is limited [1] - **Pulp**: The overseas pulp price quotation has decreased, the shipping volume has increased, and domestic demand is weak. Currently, the valuation is low, and there are also macro - positive factors [1] - **Pig**: With the continuous recovery of pig inventory, the slaughter weight is continuously increasing. The expectation of sufficient inventory in the futures market is obvious, and the futures price has a large discount to the spot price. In the short term, the spot price is less affected by slaughter, and the overall decline is limited, so the futures price remains stable [1] Energy - Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The Middle East geopolitical situation has cooled down, and the market has returned to being dominated by supply - demand logic. OPEC+ has increased production more than expected [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, the Middle East geopolitical situation has cooled down, and the market has returned to being dominated by supply - demand logic. OPEC+ has increased production more than expected [1] - **Asphalt**: It is affected by cost - side drag, the possible increase in consumption - tax rebates in Shandong, and slow demand recovery [1] - **PP**: Downstream demand shows a weakening trend, the supply - side production release expectation is strong, and inventory has increased slightly [1] - **BR Rubber**: OPEC has increased production more than expected, the synthetic - rubber fundamentals are under pressure, the high basis persists, and the futures price is expected to remain weak in the short term. Pay attention to subsequent price adjustments of butadiene and cis - butadiene and synthetic - rubber inventory reduction progress [1] - **PTA**: The crude - oil market has fallen sharply, and the chemical industry has followed the decline. The downstream polyester load remains at 90% despite the expectation of load reduction. In July, bottle - chip and staple - fiber are about to enter the maintenance period. The PTA spot supply is becoming looser, the market spot arrival volume has increased, and due to profit compression, the polyester replenishment willingness is not high [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The macro - sentiment has improved significantly, and the chemical industry has followed the crude - oil price down. The later arrival volume is large. The concentrated procurement due to the improvement of polyester sales has a certain impact on the market, and it is expected that ethane will reach the expected level smoothly [1] - **Staple Fiber**: The short - fiber warehouse - receipt registration volume is small. Under the high - basis situation, the cost is closely followed, and short - fiber factories have maintenance plans [1] - **Benzene Ethylene**: Market speculative demand has weakened, the benzene - ethylene plant load has recovered, the holding of benzene - ethylene is concentrated, and the benzene - ethylene basis has weakened significantly [1] - **PVC**: The "anti - involution" policy is positive for the spot market. Maintenance is about to end, new devices are put into operation, the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and supply pressure is rising. The futures price oscillates strongly [1] - **PG**: The July CP prices of propane and butane have both been lowered. OPEC has increased production more than expected. It is the seasonal off - season for LPG combustion and chemical demand, and the spot price decline is slow, so there is still room for the PG price to fall [1] Shipping - **Container Shipping**: It is expected that the freight rate will reach the peak in mid - to - early July, showing an arc - shaped peak in July and August, with the peak time advancing. There will be sufficient shipping capacity deployment in the following weeks [1]

Report Investment Rating - The investment view for BR is oscillating with a downward bias [2] Core View - Recently, the futures market has been significantly affected by negative news and cost factors, showing a clear downward trend. However, butadiene and the spot market are relatively stable. With downstream rigid - demand procurement leading to inventory reduction, the overall market shows some resilience. It is expected that BR will continue to decline due to cost - side negative factors, and the actual decline will depend on the price adjustment space of the spot market [2] Content Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - During this cycle, the ex - factory prices of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Marketing and PetroChina's sales companies remained stable. As of July 3, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was between 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton. In the early and middle of the week, the strengthening of natural rubber and news about China - US economic and trade talks did not provide sustainable support to the butadiene market. The increase in external resources of butadiene and the continuous decline in transaction prices led to a lack of cost support for butadiene rubber. Although there was a shutdown for maintenance at Shandong Yihua's butadiene rubber plant, the overall available spot resources were sufficient. Downstream buyers were waiting for price drops, with negative procurement and firm price - pressing. Driven by weak cost and demand, the synthetic rubber futures market oscillated weakly, and the premium space for arbitrage resources in the spot market gradually narrowed. The trading center of some private resources in the north dropped to 11,200 - 11,300 yuan/ton [3] 2. Supply - Last week, China's butadiene production was 104,800 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 70.91%; high - cis butadiene rubber production was 26,900 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 66.98%. In the short term, domestic butadiene suppliers actively sold their goods externally, and the market supply was relatively abundant. The price decline made downstream buyers cautious, resulting in a weak trading atmosphere. Shandong Yihua's butadiene rubber plant shut down, while the operating load of some private butadiene rubber plants in Shandong increased. Overall, the supply side changed little [2] 3. Demand - In the semi - steel tire market, at the end of June, agents restocked, which slightly increased the sales in the replacement market channels. The sales at terminal stores remained at a normal level. The price policy for the new month remained stable, and there was room for negotiation in actual channel sales, which was tied to the sales target. In the full - steel tire market, the price in the replacement market remained stable. At the end of last month, agents increased their semi - annual purchase tasks, which put some pressure on downstream inventory. Although the circulation of goods in the channels increased, the terminal sales were limited, and the channel inventory increased significantly. In July, manufacturers had no intention to adjust the price policy and would mainly maintain the previous month's prices. The short - term market quotation was expected to remain stable, and there was room for negotiation in actual transactions depending on the agents' inventory [2] 4. Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 22,330 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.65%. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises and traders decreased by 2.56% month - on - month. The arrival of imported ships was limited, and the downstream raw material inventory was consumed normally. Although the spot trading atmosphere was sluggish, the tradable volume in the main port tank farms was limited. Traders expected a possible decrease in imports in July and should pay close attention to inventory changes. For butadiene rubber, the decrease in manufacturers' inventory was mainly driven by the reduction of high inventory at individual manufacturers, while the pressure on traders' spot inventory continued [2] 5. Basis - The basis of butadiene rubber in North China was - 25 yuan/ton, in East China was 25 yuan/ton, and in South China was 75 yuan/ton. During the cycle, the futures market oscillated, and the basis remained stable [2] 6. Spread/Ratio - The RU - BR spread was 2,730 yuan/ton (- 1.44%); the NR - BR spread was 820 yuan/ton (- 14.14%); the BR - SC ratio was - 0.12% [2] 7. Profit - The production profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation was a certain amount per ton, and the production profit of carbon - four extraction was another amount per ton. The production profit of butadiene rubber was a certain amount per ton, with a gross profit margin of 0.28% [2] 8. Macro and Geopolitical Factors - OPEC's eight - country production increase plan in August exceeded expectations, with an expected increase of 548,000 barrels per day, and further production increases were expected at the August meeting. Trump signed a "big and beautiful" tax and expenditure bill at the White House on July 4. The global manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, with continuous expansion in Asia. The US was expected to adjust its comprehensive reciprocal tariffs again, and the market had different attitudes towards tariff increases or decreases [2] 9. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Bearish; Arbitrage: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Risks to focus on include downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance, and geopolitical situations [2] 10. Price Information - **Butadiene**: The ex - factory prices of Dalian Hengli and Sinopec East China Yangzi were 8,610 yuan/ton and 8,900 yuan/ton respectively on July 4, with week - on - week decreases of 6.51% and 7.29%. The market prices in Hangzhou, Shandong, and Sinopec North China Qilu also showed varying degrees of decline [6] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR)**: The ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable at 11,700 yuan/ton. However, the market prices in North, East, and South China regions decreased to varying degrees [5][6] - **Styrene - Butadiene Rubber (SBR)**: The ex - factory and market prices of some products remained stable, while the prices of some products in the North China market decreased [6] 11. Plant Operation - **Butadiene Plants**: Many butadiene plants had maintenance or shutdown situations in 2024 - 2025, such as Sierbang Petrochemical, Zhongke Petrochemical, etc. [8] - **Butadiene Rubber Plants**: Some plants like Yanshan Petrochemical's high - cis butadiene rubber plant were shut down for maintenance, with plans to restart around July 20. Some other plants were operating normally or with an under - full load [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Under domestic inventory accumulation pressure, the basis performance is under pressure. The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet is expected to tighten. In the short term, attention should be paid to the progress of the China - US trade agreement. If no agreement is reached, there is an expectation of de - stocking of soybean meal in the fourth quarter, and the center of the far - month contract is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, it is expected that US soybeans will rise and the premium will fall. The overall decline space of the futures market is expected to be limited [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet maintains a tight expectation. The current good - excellent rate of US soybeans is 66%, lower than the same period last year. Short - term temperature and rainfall show no obvious abnormalities. In May, the import volume of US soybeans was close to 14 million tons, a record high. The arrival expectations for June, July, and August are at a high level, and the oil mill operating rate remains high [4]. Demand - From the perspective of inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November, and the poultry inventory remains at a high level. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, the proportion of feed addition increases, and the提货 is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the demand for protein. The trading volume of soybean meal is weak [5]. Inventory - Domestic soybean inventories have increased to a high level; soybean meal is accumulating inventory at an accelerated pace; the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have increased [5]. Price - related Data - The report provides data on the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions (such as Dalian, Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, etc.), the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal (both spot and futures), and the basis spread between different contracts (such as M9 - M1, M9 - RM9, RM9 - 1) [3][4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 II GER期货 2、白宫表示,特朗普可能在 7 月延长 90 天关税暂停期 3、据CNN报道，美国总统特朗普星期三宣布，他已和越南总书记苏林达成一项贸易协议,美国将把对越南产品的关 械降至20%;作为交换,越南市场将全面向美国开放。 / 要 4、特朗普：计划征收从60%到70%到10%到20%不等的关税。相关国家将于8月1日开始征收关税。□ 1日开始征收从60%到70%到10%到20%不等的关税率比后它同行 部 5、特朗普的助手们设想在总统访华期间带上多位企业首席执行官同行。 6、目前,利率期货的价格反映出美联储在9月前降息的可能性约为80%,而在就业报告发布前这一概率曾高达98%。 7、消息人士:欧佩克+将同意在八月份将石油产量提高54.8万桶/日。 8、欧委会近期出台措施,限制中国企业和产品参与其医疗器械公共采购。中方于7月6日发布通知,决定在政府采购 活动中对部分自欧盟进口的医疗器械采取相关措施。 【EC】 行情综述:震荡。 现货:7月第二周中枢价:约3200（范围2900-3600）。马士基7月第二周报价2900后小幅升至2960，昨日第三周平开 22 ...

【钢材】周末现货跟涨动能转弱 宏观层面近期都没有太多新增的风险,导致市场情绪还行的,资金愿意入场交易risk on,短暂利好风险资产。具体到行情 上,前一周市场波动放大,"反内卷"的导火线带来资金的跟随，期现正套以及前期反套被空单可能会带来短期现货成交 投机需求的放量,但现货反馈周二周三成交尚可,周四周五现货成交蓄力是跟不上的;倾向于若短期未看到实质性政策出 台,则对利润的利好影响及成材价格的独自利好并不能持续太久。期现维度,黑色板块品种的基差远期持续收缩,焦煤、焦 炭都出现期货升水,铁矿石期货接近平水,螺纹钢的基差通过近几日的反弹再度收缩了一波,卷、螺期价重回升水,利于集 现正套以及套保头寸的主动入场。周末观察现货跟涨的动能并不强劲,现货商不追涨。现货持货意愿不强,有利润快速兑现 以及高周转,感觉仍是市场的主流思路,暂不认为黑色行情进入反转状态。 胎年金属数据日报 | 2025/07/07 | | 国贸期货出品 ITG国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | 张宇慧 | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - Gold prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term and gradually increase in the long - term. Silver prices are generally strong but may not sustain a unilateral upward trend. It is recommended to allocate more on dips for gold in the long - run [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On July 4, 2025, London gold spot was at $3342.39/oz, London silver spot at $36.85/oz, COMEX gold at $3351.90/oz, and COMEX silver at $37.04/oz. Compared to July 3, gold prices decreased by about 0.6% while silver prices had a 0.2% increase in London spot and 0.0% in COMEX [3] - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: The gold TD - SHFE active price spread on July 4 was - 2.28 yuan/g with an 18.8% increase from July 3. The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 86.88, a - 0.2% change [3] Position Data - **COMEX Gold Positions**: As of July 3, non - commercial long positions were 256077 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 61073 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 195004 contracts. Compared to July 2, non - commercial long positions decreased by 1.73%, short positions increased by 1.89%, and net long positions decreased by 2.81% [3] - **COMEX Silver Positions**: Non - commercial long positions on July 3 were 84491 contracts, short positions were 21544 contracts, and net long positions were 62947 contracts. Compared to July 2, long positions decreased by 5.06%, short positions decreased by 1.26%, and net long positions decreased by 6.29% [3] - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF - SPDR held 947.66 tons and silver ETF - SLV held 14868.73549 tons on July 3, with a 0.00% change in gold and a 0.15% increase in silver compared to July 2 [3] Inventory Data - **SHFE Inventories**: On July 4, SHFE gold inventory was 21456.00 kg, a 16.25% increase from July 3, and SHFE silver inventory was 1339746.00 kg, a - 0.08% change [3] - **COMEX Inventories**: COMEX gold inventory on July 3 was 36785583 troy ounces, a - 0.71% change, and COMEX silver inventory was 499281076 troy ounces, a - 0.18% change [3] Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - **Exchange Rates**: The USD/CNY central parity rate on July 4 was 7.15, a 0.02% change from July 3 [3] - **Interest Rates and Stock Market**: The US dollar index on July 3 was 97.12, a 0.35% increase from July 2. The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, a 2.65% increase, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.35%, a 1.16% increase [3] Market News and Analysis - **Market News**: The US House of Representatives passed the "Great Beautiful" tax and spending bill, and President Trump signed it into law on July 4. China and the US are implementing the outcomes of the London economic and trade talks. India plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US, and the EU - US trade negotiation will continue [3] - **Market Analysis**: On July 4, the Shanghai gold futures main contract closed down 0.22% at 777.06 yuan/g, and the Shanghai silver futures main contract closed up 0.59% at 8919 yuan/kg. Short - term gold prices are pressured by strong US non - farm data and improved risk appetite, but supported by tariff uncertainties. Silver prices are strong but may not sustain an upward trend due to factors like slowed demand [3]

PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 5200 4000 300 100 4200 3000 -100 -300 3200 2000 2024- 2025- 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2023- 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2024-07 2024-09 01 01 01 05 09 05 09 02 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 POY现金流 =DTY现金流 -FDY现金流 800 切片现金流 涤短现金流 600 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 01 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2025- 2023- 2024- 02 09 01 05 09 01 02 01 -800 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - In the off - season of demand and with high inventory, pulp prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - On July 4, 2025, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2507, and SP2509 decreased by 0.49%, 0.51%, and 0.51% respectively compared to the previous day, and SP2507 and SP2509 decreased by 0.98% and 0.55% respectively compared to the previous week. The spot prices of coniferous pulp Silver Star, Russian Needle, and broad - leaf pulp Goldfish were 5900, 5120, and 4020 respectively, with week - on - week changes of 0.00%, 0.00%, and - 0.74% [1] - The foreign - market quotes of Chilean Silver Star, Chilean Star, and Chilean Venus were 720, 560, and 620 dollars respectively, with monthly changes of - 2.70%, 0.00%, and 0.00%. The import costs were 5884, 4587, and 5073 yuan respectively, with monthly changes of - 2.68%, 0.00%, and 0.00% [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - In May 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.75%, and the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 129.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.84%. The pulp shipment volume to China in April 2025 was 1353 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30.80% [1] - On July 3, 2025, the domestic production of broad - leaf pulp was 20.5 million tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 20.1 million tons. The pulp port inventory was 221.3 million tons, and the delivery - warehouse inventory was 24.60 million tons. The production of main finished paper products such as double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard showed different trends [1] Pulp Valuation Data - On July 4, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 52, with a quantile level of 0.959; the basis of Silver Star was 832. The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 16, with a quantile level of 0.649; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was - 567, with a quantile level of 0.187 [1] Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Supply: On June 20, Arauco lowered the order price of radiata pine (coniferous pulp) in June by 20 dollars/ton to 720 dollars/ton. The shipment volume to China in May increased by 3.3% month - on - month. The supply increased while the price decreased [1] - Demand: The production of main finished paper products increased slightly this week, but the prices of finished paper products remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1] - Inventory: As of July 3, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 221.3 million tons, an increase of 5.0 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%, showing a trend of inventory accumulation [1]