Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA's January supply - demand report maintained the 2025/26 US soybean yield at 53 bushels per acre, higher than market expectations, further reduced US soybean exports to 1.575 billion bushels, and increased the 2025/26 ending inventory estimate to 350 million bushels, with the US soybean stock - to - consumption ratio rising to 8.2%. The report also expected Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to be 178 million tons, higher than market expectations, kept Argentina's soybean production unchanged, and raised the global soybean ending inventory to 124.1 million tons, all of which were bearish. The US soybean quarterly inventory report showed that the December quarterly inventory was 3.29 billion bushels, higher than market expectations, also bearish [10]. - In the short term, there is no obvious weather - driven speculation. With Brazil starting the harvest, the impact of the January harvest pressure on Brazil's CNF premiums should be monitored. The USDA report is bearish, and the harvest pressure under the South American bumper harvest is expected to be gradually reflected in Brazil's CNF premiums. The domestic market is expected to fluctuate weakly [10]. - In the first quarter, the concentrated ownership of imported soybeans in China brings structural issues, which may change the downstream sentiment before the Spring Festival, supporting the pre - holiday spot price trend. However, the uncertainty of China's soybean selling policy may affect the March - May spread [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Basis Data - On January 14th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract (Zhangjiagang) in Dalian was 469, down 10. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in Tianjin was 429, down 10; in Rizhao was 369, down 30; in Zhangjiagang was 369, down 10; in Dongguan was 349, down 10; in Zhanjiang was 419; in Fangchenggang was 409, down 10. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 92. M3 - 5 was 358, up 2; RM5 - 9 was - 67, down 3 [4]. 3.2. Inventory Data - The report presents data on China's port soybean inventory, feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days, and the inventory of major oil mills' soybean meal in China from 2020 - 2026 [5][6][7]. 3.3.开机和压榨情况 (Operation and Pressing Situation) - The report shows data on the operating rate and soybean pressing volume of major oil mills in China from 2020 - 2026, as well as downstream delivery volume data from 2019 - 2026 [8][9]. 3.4. Spread and International Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 652, and the futures spread of the main contract was 462. The price difference data also includes the 2025 soybean CNF premium trend chart and the 2025 imported soybean futures gross profit. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.9421, up 5, and the futures crushing profit was 179 yuan/ton [12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - PTA market experiences a tug - of - war between cost support and falling demand, with a slight price increase; PX market is at a critical juncture where speculative sentiment intersects with fundamental tension; MEG price is under supply pressure, but may be supported by policies [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data Comparison - INE crude oil price dropped from 445.6 yuan/barrel on January 13th to 445.5 yuan/barrel on January 14th [2] - PTA - SC decreased from 1901.8 yuan/ton to 1878.5 yuan/ton, and PTA/SC ratio dropped from 1.5873 to 1.5802 [2] - CFR China PX decreased from 899 to 897, and PX - naphtha spread decreased from 341 to 336 [2] - PTA main futures price decreased from 5140 yuan/ton to 5116 yuan/ton, while the spot price increased from 5060 to 5075 yuan/ton [2] - PTA spot processing fee increased from 302.1 yuan/ton to 311.5 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased from 382.1 to 367.5 yuan/ton [2] - MEG main futures price increased from 3815 yuan/ton to 3867 yuan/ton; the domestic price increased from 3686 to 3711 yuan/ton [2] 2. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate remained at 87.87%, PTA start - up rate at 77.40%, MEG start - up rate increased slightly from 61.12% to 61.15%, and polyester load remained at 87.80% [2] 3. Product Price and Cash - Flow Changes - POY150D/48F price increased from 6650 to 6715, and its cash - flow improved from - 161 to - 117 [2] - FDY150D/96F price increased from 6870 to 6920, and its cash - flow improved from - 441 to - 412 [2] - DTY150D/48F price increased from 7795 to 7830, and its cash - flow improved from - 216 to - 202 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6520 to 6510, and its cash - flow decreased from 59 to 28 [2] - Semi - bright chip price decreased from 5780 to 5770, and its cash - flow decreased from - 131 to - 162 [2] 4. Product Sales Situation - Long - filament sales remained at 46%, short - fiber sales decreased from 93% to 68%, and chip sales increased from 50% to 79% [2] 5. Device Maintenance Dynamics - Sanfangxiang's 500,000 - ton device is restarting, and a 750,000 - ton device is under maintenance; some devices of Xinjiang Yipu, Jinyu, Tiansheng, and Guxiandao are either under maintenance or have reduced loads [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 14, platinum and palladium prices generally rose. The PT2606 contract closed up 3.67% to $630.6 per gram, and the PD2606 contract closed up 1.69% to $495.5 per gram. The escalating geopolitical situation in Iran has boosted the precious metals market, and platinum and palladium have followed the upward trend. However, the better-than-expected US retail sales data and higher PPI in November indicate that the US economy is still performing well, and the probability of interest rate cuts in the short term is low. The price movement of platinum and palladium may still fluctuate as the results of the US 232 investigation are about to be announced. In the short term, platinum and palladium are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern. In the long - term, considering the supply - demand gap of platinum and the relatively loose supply of palladium, strategies such as buying platinum at low prices or implementing a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be considered [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Domestic Prices**: The closing price of platinum futures was $630.65, up 4.23% from the previous value; the spot price of platinum (99.95%) was $626, up 5.39%; the platinum basis (spot - futures) was -$4.65, down 57.92%. The closing price of palladium futures was $495.5, up 2.53%; the spot price of palladium (99.95%) was $476, up 2.48%; the palladium basis was -$19.5, up 4.00% [4]. - **International Prices (15:00)**: London spot platinum was $2390.2, up 3.28%; London spot gold was $1861.863, up 3.65%; NYMEX platinum was $2408.5, up 3.73%; NYMEX gold was $1924, up 3.83% [4]. - **Internal - External 15:00 Spread**: The US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.012, up 0.02%. The spread between Guangdong platinum and London platinum was $21.75, up 39.17%; the spread between Guangdong platinum and NYMEX platinum was $17.09, up 25.03% [4]. Ratio and Inventory Information - **Ratios**: The ratio of Guangdong Futures Exchange platinum to palladium was 1.2728, an increase of 0.0207; the ratio of London spot platinum to palladium was 1.2838, a decrease of 0.0046 [5]. - **Inventory (in troy ounces)**: NYMEX platinum inventory was 624,345, unchanged; NYMEX palladium inventory was 210,908, unchanged. Note that due to inconsistent closing times, some platinum and palladium inventory and position data are lagging [5][6]. Position Information - **Total Positions**: NYMEX total platinum positions decreased by 4.57% to 82,836; NYMEX total palladium positions decreased by 6.04% to 19,349 [5]. - **Non - commercial Net Long Positions**: NYMEX non - commercial net long platinum positions increased by 0.38% to 18,110; NYMEX non - commercial net long palladium positions decreased by 201.40% to - 571 [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided Core Views - Steel prices fluctuate narrowly with weak spot prices. There is no resonance rebound yet, so continue to wait and see on a single - side basis. For hot - rolled coils, conduct rolling operations on spot - futures arbitrage or use option strategies to assist spot procurement [2][6] - The fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese remain under pressure with high supply and weak demand. There is a high risk of a decline in the future, and industrial customers should hedge at high prices [2][6] - The expectation of the first round of coke price increase is strengthening. It is advisable to buy on dips, but be cautious due to volatile emotions [4][6] - Iron ore prices have fallen from the peak. It is recommended to wait and see as the valuation is moderately high and there are inventory pressures [5][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On Wednesday, futures prices fluctuated narrowly, and the spot market had weak follow - up increase momentum and light trading volume. There is abundant market liquidity, and the logic of commodity capital rotation has not been completely disproven. Although iron ore production is rising and there is downstream replenishment demand, the spot follow - up increase is insufficient, and there is no resonance rebound. Use a unilateral range - bound trading idea, conduct rolling operations on hot - rolled coil spot - futures arbitrage, or use option strategies to assist spot procurement [2][6] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - As market sentiment subsides, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are oscillating. Demand is poor as steel prices are under pressure, and the weekly apparent consumption has fallen to the lowest point of the year. In the off - season of terminal demand, demand is difficult to improve. Supply is still high despite poor alloy plant profits, and there is a large medium - term supply surplus pressure. Although there are policy benefits, the follow - up market is under pressure to fall, and industrial customers should hedge at high prices [2][6] Coking Coal and Coke - The expectation of the first round of coke price increase is strengthening. The overall trading atmosphere of coking coal is strong. In the futures market, there is resonance in capital market sentiment and large fluctuations. In the off - season, industry data is weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to downstream replenishment. It is advisable to buy on dips, but be cautious due to volatile emotions [4][6] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices have fallen after reaching the previous pressure level due to the resonance decline of the commodity index and market rumors. The valuation is moderately high, and the port inventory is rising. It is not recommended to chase the long or short positions, so it is advisable to wait and see [5][9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp futures have limited room for further upside due to the recent concentrated registration of pulp futures warrants, but the firmness of hardwood pulp and the stabilization of finished paper prices provide bottom support for pulp futures and spot prices. The pulp futures are expected to trade in the range of 5,400 - 5,700 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On January 14, 2026, SP2601 was 5,470 yuan/ton, up 0.89% day - on - day and down 0.91% week - on - week; SP2609 was 5,540 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 1.84% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5,494 yuan/ton, up 0.04% day - on - day and down 1.82% week - on - week [6]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and up 0.90% week - on - week; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5,350 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and down 0.93% week - on - week; Hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4,730 yuan/ton, down 0.42% day - on - day and up 0.21% week - on - week [6]. - **Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star's outer - disk quote was 710 dollars/ton, up 1.43% month - on - month, and its import cost was 5,802 yuan/ton, up 1.42% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish's outer - disk quote was 560 dollars/ton, up 3.70% month - on - month, and its import cost was 4,587 yuan/ton, up 3.66% month - on - month; Chilean Venus's outer - disk quote was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month, and its import cost was 5,073 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In November 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.5 tons, up 4.92% month - on - month compared to October; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 176.5 tons, up 33.92% month - on - month compared to October [6]. - **Shipment Volume to China**: In November 2025, the shipment volume of pulp to China was 178 thousand tons, up 3.00% month - on - month [6]. - **Domestic Production Volume**: As of January 8, 2026, the domestic production volume of hardwood pulp was 25.1 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 23.9 tons [6]. - **Port Inventory**: As of January 4, 2026, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 199.7 tons, up 4.8% compared to the previous period, ending five consecutive weeks of destocking [6][7]. - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: As of January 8, 2026, the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 13.5 tons [6]. - **Finished Paper Production Volume**: The production volume of offset paper was 20.40 tons, coated paper was 8.40 tons, tissue paper was 29.33 tons, and white cardboard was 38.30 tons [6]. Supply and Demand - **Supply Side**: Chile's Arauco Company's January coniferous pulp offer was 710 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton; hardwood pulp Star's offer was 590 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton; and natural pulp Venus's offer was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged [6]. - **Demand Side**: The demand for pulp has been stable recently. The price of tissue paper has risen slightly, while the prices of other paper products have been stable. The production volume of major wood - pulp paper products has been stable [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term: Supported by macro and fundamental factors, precious metal prices are expected to remain strong, but there is a risk of short - term correction due to over - heated market sentiment and strong US economic data. It is recommended to control positions [4]. - Long - term: The upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged. The strategy should focus on buying on dips or selling slightly out - of - the - money put options. Long - term investors are advised to allocate by buying on dips [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On January 14, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.07% at 1040.62 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 8.03% at 22763 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3.2 Price and Spread - **Price**: On January 14, London gold spot was at $4632.61/ounce, London silver spot was at $89.97/ounce, etc. The prices of gold and silver showed significant increases compared to January 13, with silver having a more substantial increase. For example, the price of London silver spot increased by 6.0% [3]. - **Spread**: The spreads of gold and silver, such as the difference between TD and SHFE active prices, and the difference between domestic and foreign markets, also changed. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 4.31 yuan/gram on January 14, with a change rate of 68.4% compared to January 13 [3]. 3.3 Position Data - As of January 13 (weekly data, latest up to January 6), the positions of non - commercial long and short positions in COMEX gold and silver changed. For example, the non - commercial long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 0.42% compared to January 12 [3]. 3.4 Inventory Data - On January 14, SHFE gold inventory was 100152.00 kilograms, an increase of 1.90% compared to January 13. SHFE silver inventory was 628696.00 kilograms, a decrease of 0.22% compared to January 13 [3]. 3.5 Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Markets - On January 14, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.01, with a change of 0.02% compared to January 13. The US dollar index, US Treasury yields, VIX, S&P 500, and NYWEX crude oil also had corresponding changes [3]. 3.6 Influencing Factor Analysis - The continuous spread of global geopolitical risks, such as the withdrawal of US personnel from Middle - East bases and the increase of Danish military forces in Greenland, has increased the demand for safe - haven assets, pushing up the prices of precious metals. Silver has also been boosted by macro and fundamental factors, with stronger price increases in the domestic market [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The capital market tightened slightly this week, with the weighted average interest rate of DR001 rising to around 1.39%. The central bank's open - market operations had a total of 13,236 billion yuan in reverse repurchase maturities this week. [4] - The three - market trading volume in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing reached 39,872 billion yuan, a significant increase of 2,881 billion yuan from the previous day, hitting a new record high. Industry sectors showed more gains than losses. [6] - On January 19, the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges will increase the margin ratio for margin trading to curb excessive speculation. In the short term, the stock index is expected to continue rising after shock adjustment. In 2026, multiple positive factors such as macro - policy support, inflation recovery, low - interest environment, technological progress, and capital - market reform are expected to support the A - share market. It is recommended that investors hold long positions for the long - term. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Money Market - **Interest Rate Changes**: DRO01 closed at 1.39% with a 0.07bp increase; DR007 at 1.57% with a 1.94bp increase; GC001 at 1.52% with a 5.00bp increase; GC007 at 1.58% with a 1.50bp increase; SHBOR 3M at 1.60% with no change; LPR 5 - year at 3.50% with no change; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.27% with a 0.77bp increase; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.63% with a - 0.75bp decrease; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.85% with a - 0.74bp decrease; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.18% with a - 1.00bp decrease. [4] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 240.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on the previous day, with the same bid, winning, and operation rate of 1.40%, achieving a net injection of 212.2 billion yuan. [4] 3.2 Stock Market - **Stock Index Performance**: The CSI 300 fell 0.4% to 4741.9; the SSE 50 fell 0.67% to 3112.1; the CSI 500 rose 1.04% to 8227.7; the CSI 1000 rose 0.66% to 8257.2. [6] - **Futures Contracts**: For futures contracts like IF, IH, IC, and IM, there were changes in both prices and trading volumes. For example, IF's trading volume increased by 20.6%, and its holding volume increased by 4.0%. [6] - **Industry Performance**: Internet services, software development, cultural media, communication equipment, mining, and precious metals sectors led the gains, while energy metals, insurance, banking, and airport sectors led the losses. [6] 3.3 Futures Market - **Futures Ascending/Descending Water Situation**: The ascending/descending water rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts in different periods (current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter) are presented, such as IF's current - month contract with an ascending water rate of 16.67%. [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Coke, Coal [1] - Bearish: None - Neutral: Index, Treasury Bonds, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Platinum, Palladium, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, PTA, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, LPG, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] - Cautious: Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Platinum, Palladium, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, PTA, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, LPG, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] - Wait - and - See: Polysilicon [1] Core Views - The stock index may continue to rise after short - term shock adjustment, and the bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks [1]. - Copper and aluminum prices are expected to be strong, while alumina prices will fluctuate. Zinc and nickel prices have uncertainties due to policies and fundamentals, and short - term operations should be cautious [1]. - The prices of lithium carbonate, rebar, and other products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment, showing a state of shock or limited upward space [1]. - The prices of agricultural products such as palm oil, cotton, and sugar are affected by supply - demand relationships and market news, with different trends [1]. - The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as policies, supply - demand, and cost, and different products have different trends [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index and Bond Futures - Stock Index: After a volume - based breakthrough, it may continue to rise after short - term shock adjustment as the market trading volume remains high [1]. - Bond Futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: With improved market sentiment and tight ore supply, copper prices are expected to remain strong [1]. - Aluminum: Limited industrial drive, but restricted supply and improved macro - sentiment are expected to drive prices higher [1]. - Alumina: There is a large release space on the supply side, but the current price is near the cost line, so it is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Zinc: The cost center is stable, but there is inventory pressure. Although the price has made up for losses due to good macro - sentiment, the upside space is limited [1]. - Nickel: The market's concern about supply has decreased, but policy implementation is uncertain. The price is in high - level shock, and short - term operations should be cautious [1]. - Stainless Steel: The raw - material price is rising, and the inventory is decreasing slightly. The price is in high - level shock, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - Tin: The price has risen due to good macro - sentiment and supply disturbances, but there is pressure on the fundamentals, and long - term low - position buying is recommended [1]. - Precious Metals: Geopolitical risks, the Fed's independence crisis, and lower - than - expected CPI have boosted prices, but the price fluctuations are large [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: The macro - environment is favorable, but the fundamentals are not as solid as precious metals. In the short term, they will fluctuate widely, and long - term low - position buying of platinum is recommended [1]. Industrial Metals - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing, while southwest production is decreasing. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon decreased in December [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: In the traditional peak season of new - energy vehicles, the demand for energy storage is strong, but the spot market is weak, and the price is in shock [1]. - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: High production and inventory suppress price increases, and the transmission of futures price increases to the spot market is not smooth. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be participated in [1]. - Iron Ore: There is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1]. - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations, and supply may be disturbed by energy - consumption control and anti - involution [1]. - Glass and Soda Ash: The short - term market sentiment is warming, but the medium - term supply is excessive, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity - reduction" expectation continues to ferment, there may be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: After the release of the MPOB report, wait for the opportunity to buy when the origin reduces production and inventory and the biodiesel story unfolds. Short - term waiting is recommended [1]. - Cotton: The market is currently in a state of "with support but no driving force". Future factors such as policies, planting intentions, and weather should be concerned [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and an increase in domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: The selling progress has slowed down but is still faster than the same period last year. The port inventory is low, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [1]. - Soybean Meal: Affected by the USDA report, the internal market is expected to be weakly volatile. Attention should be paid to the soybean auction [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, and there are uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuela [1]. - Fuel Oil and Bitumen: They follow the trend of crude oil, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [1]. - PTA and Short Fiber: The PX market has risen, and domestic PTA maintains high - level operation. The short - fiber price follows the cost [1]. - Styrene: The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on the overseas market [1]. - Urea: There is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - Propylene: The supply pressure is large, but the cost support is strong, and there is a risk of rising crude - oil prices [1]. - PVC: The macro - sentiment has subsided, and the market will trade based on fundamentals. The fundamentals are weak, and the price is at a low level [1]. - LPG: The import cost is supported, and the risk premium has increased. The inventory is expected to decrease, and the downstream demand is expected to increase [1]. Others - Container Shipping on the European Route: It is expected to peak in mid - January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market is expected to experience a relatively concentrated rush of shipments before April 1st, which will consume the export volume of photovoltaic modules after April next year, and the subsequent export volume will decline. The rush of shipments may temporarily alleviate the decline in freight rates after the holiday, but it is difficult to benefit most shipping companies, and a price war in the off - season is inevitable. The main contract is supported in the short term, but the benefits of the rush of shipments need to be verified. Subsequently, the decline in exports will lead to a contraction in cargo volume, which is suitable for upstream and mid - stream enterprises to conduct short hedging on the 04 contract. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - **Container Freight Index**: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1647, 1195, 2218, 1323, 3128, 1719, 1956, and 3232 respectively. The previous values are 1656, 1147, 2188, 1250, 3033, 1690, 1795, and 3143 respectively. The corresponding percentage changes are - 0.54%, 4.21%, 1.37%, 5.84%, 3.13%, 1.72%, 8.97%, and 2.83% respectively [4]. 3.2 Market News - The US Supreme Court has scheduled Friday as the "judgment day", which will be the first possible time to rule on President Donald Trump's global tariff policy. If the ruling finds Trump's tariffs illegal, it will weaken his iconic economic policy [5]. - Maersk will continue to gradually resume east - west shipping through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea. From January 11th to 12th, Maersk Denver successfully passed the Bab el - Mandeb Strait and entered the Red Sea [5]. 3.3 EC Market - **Market Review**: The market is in a downward trend [6]. - **Spot Price**: In the fourth week of January, Maersk's quotes were differentiated. The Shanghai - Rotterdam route was quoted at $2700/FEU (a month - on - month increase of $100), while the Ningbo - Rotterdam and Shanghai - Gdansk routes dropped to $2400/FEU ( $230 lower than the European base port). Hapag - Lloyd's quote center dropped to $2300 - 2700/FEU. In the OA alliance, the quotes were loose in the first half of January. From January 16th - 22nd, EMC's quote was $2800 - 2950/FEU, still at a high level but with weakened price - holding strength. YML's quote from January 16th - 22nd was $2600/FEU, lower than OA and MSC, and it has not followed Maersk's price cut. MSC's quote in the second half of January was $2840/FEU, the same as the first half, and did not follow Maersk's price cut [6]. - **Logic**: The State Taxation Administration issued an announcement on adjusting the export tax - refund policy for photovoltaic products. Currently, China exports an average of 35,000 - 40,000 TEU of photovoltaic modules to Europe per month, accounting for about 5% of the total export volume on the European route. To avoid losing tax - refund benefits and increasing export costs, enterprises are rushing to ship before the policy takes effect. It is estimated that before April 1st, the additional cargo volume on the European route due to the rush of shipments will be about 30,000 TEU, which will consume the capacity of 2 ships with a capacity of 15,000 TEU. After April, it is expected that the monthly shipping volume on the European route will decrease by 3000 - 4000 TEU, accounting for about 0.4%, putting pressure on the demand for far - month contracts [6].