01-23 11下 2000-2010 01-17~15 | | | 投资询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【了C国贸期货 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 甲醇数据日报 | | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 投资咨询号: Z0021177 | 卢钊毅 | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | | 2025/11/19 | | | | 数据来源:钢联 | | | | | | | 를 | | 内蒙古北线 陕西关中 新疆（疆外） 山东临沂 太仓 | | | | | 河南 | | 现 点 | 现值 | 2002 1570 | 1968 | 1905 | | 2140 | 2015 | | 货 区 | 前值 | 2012 1620 | 1960 | 1905 | | 2140 | 2020 | | 域 | 涨幅 | (10) (50) | 8 | 0 | | 0 | (5) | | 期 号 | | MA2601 MA2605 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 2029 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA's November supply - demand report for 2025/26 US soybeans showed a slight downward adjustment in yield, exports, and carry - over, with less - than - expected bullish impact. Brazilian new - crop production is predicted to reach 177.6 million tons. 11 - 12 months in China are expected to see a decline in soybean meal inventory, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be ample. The purchase progress for 12 - 1 month shipments is slow, and the supply gap in Q1 next year is uncertain [7]. - In terms of demand, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in the red, and national policies aim to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect future supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is high, with cautious downstream transactions and good提货 performance [8]. - China's soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels for the same period, and are expected to decline from November to December. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level. If there are no severe weather problems, the market is expected to start trading on the selling pressure of new South American crops from December to January, and it is recommended to short the 05 contract on rallies [8]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - **Soybean Meal Spot Basis**: On November 18th, the basis of the Dalian soybean meal main contract (Zhangjiagang) was 19, up 22. The basis in different regions such as Tianjin, Rizhao, Dongguan, etc. showed various values and changes [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal Spot Basis**: The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 120, down 14 [4]. - **Spread Data**: The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the spread of the main contract was 610, up 16 [5]. 3.2 Supply - related Data - **US Supply**: The USDA's November report adjusted the 2025/26 US soybean yield from 53.5 bushels per acre to 53 bushels per acre, kept the crush at 2.555 billion bushels, reduced exports from 1.685 billion bushels to 1.635 billion bushels, and cut the carry - over from 300 million bushels to 290 million bushels [7]. - **Brazilian Supply**: The predicted 2025/26 Brazilian new - crop production is 177.6 million tons. As of November 8th, the sowing rate was 58.4%, compared with 47.1% last week, 66.1% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 57%. Attention should be paid to the relatively dry weather in southern Brazil and the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern [7]. - **Domestic Supply**: From November to December, domestic soybean meal is expected to see inventory reduction, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be ample. The purchase progress for 12 - 1 month shipments is slow, and the supply gap in Q1 next year is uncertain [7][8]. 3.3 Demand - related Data - **Livestock and Poultry Demand**: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in the red, and national policies aim to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect future supply [8]. - **Soybean Meal Demand**: The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is high. Recently, downstream transactions have been cautious, but the提货 performance has been good [8]. 3.4 Inventory - related Data - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory**: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels for the same period, and are expected to decline from November to December. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [8].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Report's Core View - The adjustment of the pricing cycle of the EC2602 contract is individually bullish for this contract, but the pricing is relatively full, and investors should not blindly chase the high [8]. - It is necessary to observe the loading situation in November to determine whether it can lay a good foundation for the price increase in December, and the price increase situation in December (whether it is one or two rounds) and the amplitude and time of the high point are uncertain [7]. - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [9]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Freight Index - The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe are 1451, 1094, 1823, 1238, 2600, and 1417 respectively, with changes of -2.92%, 3.39%, -17.59%, -6.85%, -8.71%, and 7.11% compared to the previous values [5]. - The current values of SCFIS - Northwest Europe and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1357 and 2029 respectively, with changes of -9.77% and 0.00% compared to the previous values [5]. Contract Information - The current values of contracts EC2506, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 are 1385.0, 1509.6, 1112.0, 1769.5, 1678.1, and 1179.6 respectively, with changes of -1.35%, -0.76%, -0.54%, -1.27%, -2.78%, and -0.68% compared to the previous values [5]. - The current values of EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 positions are 1585, 1161, 2455, 10432, 38860, and 16145 respectively, with changes of (36), (12), 51, (1654), (20), and (37) compared to the previous values [5]. - The current values of the spreads 12 - 02, 12 - 04, and 02 - 04 are 91.4, 589.9, and 498.5 respectively, with changes of 25.1, (14.7), and (39.8) compared to the previous values [5]. Spot Price - In late November, NSK quoted 2020, HPL quoted 2850, 00CL quoted 2300, CMA quoted 3150, MSC quoted 2350, HML quoted 2500, YML quoted 2550, and ONE quoted 2650. In early December, MSK quoted 3200, HPL quoted 3250, and ONE quoted 2450 (MSK's final quote in December was 2500) [7]. Contract Trading Rule Adjustment - The last trading day of the container shipping index (European Line) futures EC2602 contract is February 9, 2026. The original pricing cycle was adjusted to two weeks earlier, which is bullish for the EC2602 contract [8]. Other Information - According to the holiday arrangement in 2026, the last trading Monday in February 2026 is February 9 [6][8] - Iran carried out a maritime attack near Oman Bay targeting Israel [6] - The ship CMA CGM JULES VERNE/ MEX1 was scheduled to go around the Cape of Good Hope but actually passed through the Red Sea/Suez Canal [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Recently, the PX market has shown a rebound due to multiple factors. Despite the end of some planned maintenance and the gradual recovery of production capacity, PX output remains limited, driven by two key factors: the soaring gasoline profit margin, which prompts refineries to reduce raw material input into aromatics units and increase gasoline production, and the drop in benzene prices to a near - three - year low, leading refineries to lower the load of reforming and STDP units to limit benzene output and thus restrict PX supply [2] - PTA supply has slightly contracted, polyester operation has remained stable with a load above 90%, and domestic polyester exports are still optimistic. Although the "Golden September and Silver October" period has ended, downstream weaving has performed well, and export demand may improve. The costs of bottle chips and short fibers follow these trends [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 4615 to 4610, a drop of 5; MEG inner - market price fell from 3980 to 3952, a decrease of 28; PTA closing price declined from 4692 to 4670, a drop of 22; MEG closing price dropped from 3938 to 3907, a decrease of 31 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6375 to 6350, a drop of 25; short - fiber basis increased from 146 to 147, an increase of 1; 12 - 1 spread decreased from 46 to 42, a decrease of 4; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber price difference decreased from 975 to 950, a decrease of 25; East China water bottle chip price decreased from 5727 to 5716, a drop of 11; hot - filled polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5727 to 5716, a drop of 11; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5827 to 5816, a drop of 11 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10300; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3925 to 3950, an increase of 25; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300; cotton 328 price decreased from 14315 to 14280, a drop of 35; polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1662 to 1692, an increase of 30 [2] - The price of primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) remained unchanged at 7020; the cash flow of hollow short fiber 6 - 15D increased from 541 to 555, an increase of 14; the price of primary low - melting - point short fiber remained unchanged at 7480 [2] Market Conditions - In the short - fiber market, the main futures of polyester staple fiber dropped 40 to 6188. The prices of polyester staple fiber production factories were stable, while those of traders declined. Downstream demand was limited, and on - site transactions were sluggish [2] - In the bottle - chip market, the mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5700 - 5820 yuan/ton, with the average price dropping 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated weakly, supply - side quotations were mixed, market trading was light, and downstream terminal demand was mainly rigid. The price center of bottle chips showed a slight downward trend [2] Operational Data - The weekly load of direct - spun short fibers increased from 85.63% to 89.32%, an increase of 3.69% [3] - The sales volume of polyester staple fibers decreased from 45.00% to 44.00%, a decrease of 1.00% [3] - The weekly startup rate of polyester yarn remained unchanged at 63.50% [3] - The load index of recycled cotton - type fibers increased from 51.00% to 51.50%, an increase of 0.50% [3]

【钢材】价格持稳 周二期现价格持稳,但现货成交量回落,市场主动追涨动能偏弱。宏观层面,下个观察期在12月初以后;重点观察并跟踪 | | | | | | | | Ext ENGEREN | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/19 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 执业证号 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 F0286636 Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 F3051824 Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 F03094002 Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 F03117750 Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | | | | | | 7000 | | 1000 ...

| | 锂云母 | | | | | - 工业级碳酸锂-平均价 ■ 电池级恢酸锂一平均价 电俠-工俠价差 元/吨 T./ H+ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (Li20:1.5%-2.0%) | 1575 | | 85 | | | | | 锂云母 (Li20:2.0%-2.5%) | 2465 | | 125 | | 碳酸锂注册仓电(座) | | | 磷锂铝石 (Li20:6%-7%) | 8450 | | | | | | | 磷锂铝石 (Li20:7%-8%) | 9900 | | 75 | | | | | 正极材料 | 平均价 | | 涨跌 | | | | | 磷酸铁锂(动力型) | 37800 | | 300 | | | | | 三元材料811(多晶/动力型) | 160850 | | 200 | | | | | 三元材料523(单晶/动力型) | 142550 | | 350 | | | | | 三元材料613(单晶/动力型) | 142950 | | 300 | | | | | 名称 | 现值 | | 变化值 | | | | | 电 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - PX prices are rebounding due to limited production, driven by high gasoline profit rates and low pure - benzene prices. PTA supply has slightly shrunk, polyester开工 remains stable with high load, and domestic polyester exports are optimistic. Downstream weaving shows good performance, and export demand may improve [2]. - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports has increased significantly. New device commissions put pressure on prices, and although coal prices are rising, they do not strongly support the cost of ethylene glycol. The tariff reduction after the Sino - US trade negotiation may increase textile and clothing export demand [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - INE crude oil price increased from 458.1 yuan/barrel on 2025/11/17 to 458.8 yuan/barrel on 2025/11/18, with a change of 0.70 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA - SC decreased from 1362.9 yuan/ton to 1335.9 yuan/ton, a change of - 27.09 yuan/ton; PTA/SC decreased from 1.4094 to 1.4007, a change of - 0.0087 [2]. - CFR China PX decreased from 831 to 827, a change of - 4; PX - naphtha spread increased from 254 to 256, a change of 2 [2]. - PTA主力期价 decreased from 4692 yuan/ton to 4670 yuan/ton, a change of - 22.0 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 decreased from 4615 to 4610, a change of - 5.0 [2]. - PTA现货加工费 increased from 172.2 yuan/ton to 176.1 yuan/ton, a change of 3.9 yuan/ton; PTA盘面加工费 decreased from 249.2 yuan/ton to 246.1 yuan/ton, a change of - 3.1 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG主力期价 decreased from 3938 yuan/ton to 3907 yuan/ton, a change of - 31.0 yuan/ton; MEG内盘 decreased from 3980 to 3952, a change of - 28.0 [2]. - PX开工率 remained at 87.39%, PTA开工率 remained at 74.55%, MEG开工率 increased from 61.17% to 61.86%, a change of 0.69%, and聚酯负荷 remained at 88.69% [2]. - POY150D/48F decreased from 6590 to 6585, a change of - 5.0; POY现金流 increased from 61 to 70, a change of 9.0 [2]. - FDY150D/96F remained at 6840; FDY现金流 increased from - 189 to - 175, a change of 14.0 [2]. - DTY150D/48F remained at 7865; DTY现金流 increased from 136 to 150, a change of 14.0 [2]. - 长丝产销 decreased from 45% to 41%, a change of - 4% [2]. - 1.4D直纺涤短 decreased from 6375 to 6350, a change of - 25; 涤短现金流 decreased from 196 to 185, a change of - 11.0 [2]. - 短纤产销 increased from 35% to 49%, a change of 14% [2]. - 半光切片 decreased from 5575 to 5565, a change of - 10.0; 切片现金流 increased from - 54 to - 50, a change of 4.0 [2]. - 切片产销 increased from 37% to 49%, a change of 12% [2]. Market Analysis - PTA market: PTA prices decreased slightly due to falling crude oil prices and cost reduction. PTA is in the process of de - stocking, and the spot basis has strengthened [2]. - MEG market: The ethylene glycol futures fluctuated weakly, the spot price in Zhangjiagang decreased, and the basis negotiation weakened. The inventory in East China ports increased by 120,000 tons [2]. Device Maintenance - A 900,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Singapore, which was originally planned to restart around the end of December 2025, has postponed its restart time, and the specific restart plan is unknown [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to keep social financing conditions relatively loose and promote a reasonable recovery of prices [4]. - The stock index is expected to continue its volatile pattern with support at the bottom and pressure on the upside. Short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's volatile adjustment, and a new driving force is awaited for the index to rise further [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Macro - Financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.53% with a 1.66bp increase, DR007 at 1.52% with a 0.03bp increase, GC001 at 1.69% with a 35.50bp increase, GC007 at 1.56% with a 5.50bp increase, SHBOR 3M at 1.58% unchanged, LPR 5 - year at 3.50% unchanged, 1 - year treasury at 1.40% with a - 0.10bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.54% unchanged, 10 - year treasury at 1.80% with a 0.05bp increase, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.13% with a - 1.00bp change [3]. - **Open - Market Operations**: Last week, the central bank conducted 1.122 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 626.2 billion yuan. This week, 1.122 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 12 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits will mature on Thursday [3][4]. 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 fell 0.65% to 4568, the SSE 50 fell 0.3% to 3003, the CSI 500 fell 1.17% to 7151, and the CSI 1000 fell 1% to 7448. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.9261 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 15.3 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed lower, with Internet services, cultural media, and education sectors leading the gains, and coal, battery, steel, fertilizer, energy metals, shipping ports, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals sectors leading the losses [5]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF volume increased by 6.6% to 121,863, and its open interest increased by 2.2% to 278,688; IH volume decreased by 4.3% to 54,759, and its open interest decreased by 3.4% to 97,691; IC volume increased by 15% to 134,440, and its open interest increased by 3.3% to 254,019; IM volume increased by 10.4% to 217,767, and its open interest increased by 19% to 362,020 [5]. - **Premium and Discount**: IF's premium and discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were - 3.75%, 3.40%, 2.96%, and 3.43% respectively; IH's were - 2.36%, 2.12%, 0.88%, and 1.07% respectively; IC's were - 3.03%, 11.73%, 10.63%, and 11.05% respectively; IM's were 4.08%, 15.22%, 13.31%, and 12.89% respectively [7].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Pulp fundamentals show no significant improvement, but there may be a shortage of delivery resources for 2026 needle pulp. The futures price may be priced based on Russian needle pulp and high - quality needle pulp. The current futures price is close to the import cost of delivery products, with limited room for further increase. Consider closing the 12 - 1 reverse spread and initiating 1 - 3 or 1 - 5 reverse spreads [11]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On November 18, 2025, SP2601 was 5408, down 1.21% day - on - day and 1.39% week - on - week; SP2512 was 4872, down 0.53% day - on - day and up 0.04% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5410, down 1.13% day - on - day and 1.06% week - on - week [6]. - **Spot Prices**: On November 18, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5550, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian needle pulp was 5400, unchanged; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4400, unchanged day - on - day and up 0.46% week - on - week [6]. - **Foreign Offers**: In November 2025, the offer of Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, down 2.86% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars/ton, up 3.92% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged [6]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5559, down 2.83% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [6]. Supply - **Imports**: In September 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 69.1 tons, up 12.54% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp was 135.6 tons, up 7.79% month - on - month [6]. - **Domestic Production**: On November 13, 2025, the domestic production of broadleaf pulp was 22.9 tons, and chemical mechanical pulp was 23.6 tons [6]. - **Shipments to China**: In September 2025, the shipment volume of pulp to China was 187 tons, up 13.50% [6]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 211.0 tons, up 6.1% from the previous period, changing from narrow - range de - stocking to high - level stocking [6][11]. - **Futures Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: On November 13, 2025, the inventory of futures delivery warehouses was 22.2 tons [6]. Demand - **Finished Paper Production**: In November 2025, the production of double - coated paper was 20.90 tons, copper - plate paper was 8.30 tons, tissue paper was 28.48 tons, and white cardboard was 36.20 tons [6]. Valuation - **Basis**: On November 18, 2025, the basis of Russian needle pulp was 528, with a quantile level of 0.957; Silver Star was 678, with a quantile level of 0.895 [6]. - **Import Profit**: On November 18, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 9, with a quantile level of 0.594; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 56, with a quantile level of 0.704 [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the mismatch between supply and demand, with the terminal (energy storage + new energy vehicles) peak season continuing and the supply fluctuating at a high level without a large - scale increase, the downward support for lithium carbonate prices is obvious. Considering hedging pressure and the resumption of production in Jiangxi mines, it is expected that lithium carbonate prices may experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 86,150 yuan, up 1,000 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 83,800 yuan, up 1,000 yuan [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China, Li2O: 5.5% - 6%) average price is 1,024 yuan, up 18 yuan; lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) average price is 1,490 yuan, up 40 yuan; lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) average price is 2,340 yuan, up 60 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) average price is 8,400 yuan, up 315 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%) average price is 9,825 yuan, up 315 yuan [1][2] Positive Electrode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 37,500 yuan, up 245 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 160,650 yuan, up 300 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 142,200 yuan, up 300 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 142,650 yuan, up 300 yuan [2] Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,350 yuan; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 9,050 yuan, a change of - 6,840 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 60 yuan, up 80 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 260 yuan, up 100 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 120,472 tons, a decrease of 3,481 tons; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 28,270 tons, a decrease of 2,445 tons; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 48,772 tons, a decrease of 3,236 tons; other inventory (weekly, tons) is 43,430 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 26,953 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 85,482 yuan, and the profit is - 543 yuan; the cash cost of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate is 89,096 yuan, and the profit is - 6,327 yuan [3] Futures Contracts - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2512 is 95,140 yuan, with a daily increase of 8.98%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2601 is 95,200 yuan, with a daily increase of 9%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2602 is 94,880 yuan, with a daily increase of 8.98%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2603 is 94,780 yuan, with a daily increase of 8.99%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2604 is 95,640 yuan, with a daily increase of 8.98% [1]