Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The USDA January supply - demand report maintained the 2025/26 US soybean yield at 53 bushels per acre, higher than market expectations. It further reduced US soybean exports to 1.575 billion bushels and raised the global soybean ending inventory to 124.11 million tons, which is bearish. The US soybean quarterly stocks report also showed that the December quarterly inventory was 3.29 billion bushels, higher than expected and bearish. With no significant weather - driven speculation in South America in the short term, and Brazil starting harvest, the impact of January harvest selling pressure on Brazilian CNF premiums should be monitored. The domestic market is expected to oscillate weakly. The recent full - premium auction of imported soybeans reflects the market's expectation of a soybean shortage in March, but the large auction volume will supplement the domestic soybean supply in Q1 [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Basis Data - On January 13th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang was 379, up 19; the 43% soybean meal spot basis against the main contract in Rizhao was 399, up 29; in Tianjin was 439, up 29; in Dongguan was 359, up 9; in Zhanjiang was 419, up 29; in Fangcheng was 419, up 19; the rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 90; M3 - 2 was 356, up 29 [6]. 3.2 Inventory and Production - related Data - Data on China's port soybean inventory, national major oil mills' soybean meal inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, national major oil mills' soybean crushing volume, and national major oil mills' operating rate are presented in the form of historical trend charts from 2018 - 2025 [7][8]. 3.3 Spread and International Data - Spread data includes RM1 - 5, the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong, and the futures spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in the main contract. International data shows the 2025 Brazilian soybean CNF premium trend chart and the 2025 imported soybean futures gross margin [12].

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, mainly driven by speculative funds rather than fundamental changes. The futures market has dominated the price discovery mechanism, showing "irrational prosperity" characteristics. Although there are concerns about bubbles, the PX fundamentals are supported, and the market is expected to remain tight in 2026. The PX-naphtha spread has widened to $360, and the PX-mixed xylene spread has reached $155, significantly improving the economics of aromatics extraction. The domestic PTA maintains high operating rates, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the resumption of exports to India since the end of November. The polyester new device commissioning has pushed the polyester load to a high level, and the PTA consumption has remained high. The polyester demand has weakened seasonally, but the polyester factory's production cuts are not enough to form a negative feedback. The overseas ethylene glycol device maintenance plans have increased, and the ethylene glycol price is difficult to get effective support under the background of continuous decline in coal prices. With the commissioning of new devices, the market supply pressure continues to increase. The coal-based ethylene glycol device return has put great pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to the changes in domestic policies, and the ethylene glycol price may be supported under the background of carbon neutrality [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - INE crude oil rose from 437.5 yuan/barrel on January 12, 2026, to 445.6 yuan/barrel on January 13, 2026, an increase of 8.10 yuan/barrel. PTA spot prices fell from 5100 yuan/ton to 5060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract futures price fell from 5142 yuan/ton to 5140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.0 yuan/ton. The PTA spot processing fee fell from 352.3 yuan/ton to 302.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.2 yuan/ton. The PTA disk processing fee fell from 394.3 yuan/ton to 382.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.2 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract basis fell from (58) to (69), a decrease of 11.0. The PTA warehouse receipt quantity increased from 100820 to 102122, an increase of 1302. The MEG main contract futures price fell from 3880 yuan/ton to 3815 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65.0 yuan/ton. The MEG internal market price fell from 3734 yuan/ton to 3686 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48.0 yuan/ton. The MEG main contract basis fell from -140 to -147, a decrease of 7.0. The CFR China PX price rose from 897 to 899, an increase of 2. The PX-naphtha spread fell from 346 to 341, a decrease of 5 [2] Industry Chain Start-up Situation - The PX operating rate remained at 87.87%, the PTA operating rate remained at 77.40%, the MEG operating rate remained at 61.12%, the polyester load remained at 87.80%, and there was no change in all indicators [2] Product Price and Cash Flow - Among polyester filaments, POY150D/48F fell from 6695 to 6650, a decrease of 45.0; POY cash flow increased from (166) to (161), an increase of 5.0; FDY150D/96F fell from 6890 to 6870, a decrease of 20.0; FDY cash flow increased from (471) to (441), an increase of 30.0; DTY150D/48F rose from 7780 to 7795, an increase of 15.0; DTY cash flow increased from (281) to (216), an increase of 65.0. The sales rate of polyester filaments decreased from 69% to 46%, a decrease of 23%. Among polyester staple fibers, 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber remained unchanged at 6520; the cash flow of polyester staple fiber increased from 9 to 59, an increase of 50.0; the sales rate of polyester staple fibers increased from 81% to 93%, an increase of 12%. Among polyester chips, semi-gloss chips rose from 5770 to 5780, an increase of 10.0; the chip cash flow increased from (191) to (131), an increase of 60.0; the chip sales rate decreased from 72% to 50%, a decrease of 22% [2] Device Maintenance - This week, the 500,000-ton device of Sanfangxiang is in the process of restarting, and another 750,000-ton device will be overhauled recently, with the load gradually decreasing. The overhauls of Xinjiang Yipu and Jinyu devices in December are supplemented. Some factories such as Tiansheng and Guxiandao have reduced their loads [2]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the capital market has shown a slight contraction, with the weighted average rate of DR001 rising to around 1.30%. The central bank's open - market operations have multiple large - scale reverse repurchase maturities this week. [4] - Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index ended its 17 - day winning streak, and the trading volume of the three major stock markets reached a record high. The industry sectors had more decliners than gainers. [5] - After the recent strong and volume - expanding breakthrough of the stock index, the market capital is abundant, opening up a new upward space. With the positive feedback of macro - fundamental data, it is expected that the stock index will continue to rise after short - term shock adjustment. In the long run, the stock index in 2026 is expected to rise. It is recommended that investors mainly go long and give priority to far - month contracts. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DRO01 closed at 1.39, up 6.47bp; DR007 closed at 1.55, up 5.72bp; GC001 closed at 1.47, down 11bp; GC007 closed at 1.56, down 3bp; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.60, up 0.20bp; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50, unchanged. The 1 - year treasury bond yield was 1.24, up 0.25bp; the 5 - year treasury bond yield was 1.60, up 0.25bp; the 10 - year treasury bond yield was 1.86, down 1.05bp; the 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.19, up 1bp. [3] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 358.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The bid volume, winning bid volume were 358.6 billion yuan each. With 16.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing on the same day, the net investment on the day was 342.4 billion yuan. [3] 3.2 Stock Index and Futures - **Stock Index Closing Prices and Changes**: The CSI 300 closed at 4761, down 0.60%; the SSE 50 closed at 3133, down 0.34%; the CSI 500 closed at 8143, down 1.28%; the CSI 1000 closed at 8203, down 1.84%. [5] - **Futures Closing Prices and Changes**: IF current - month contract closed at 4766, down 0.5%; IH current - month contract closed at 3137, down 0.2%; IC current - month contract closed at 8173, down 1.2%; IM current - month contract closed at 8234, down 1.9%. [5] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: IF trading volume was 172,729, up 10.7%; IF open interest was 307,410, up 1.8%; IH trading volume was 67,378, up 24.7%; IH open interest was 94,858, up 3.4%; IC trading volume was 212,314, up 4.4%; IC open interest was 317,086, up 2.0%; IM trading volume was 305,102, up 2.2%; IM open interest was 401,618, down 0.4%. [5] - **Premium and Discount Situation**: Different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM have different premium and discount rates. For example, IF current - month contract had a premium/discount rate of 2.25%, and some contracts had significant discount rates. [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Recent pulp futures warehouse receipts are concentrated for registration, with limited further upside potential. However, the firmness of broadleaf pulp and the stabilization of finished paper prices provide bottom support for pulp futures and spot prices. Pulp futures are expected to trade in the range of 5,400 - 5,700 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On January 13, 2026, SP2601 was 5,422 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.07% and a weekly decrease of 1.92%; SP2609 was 5,540 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.07% and a weekly decrease of 1.91%; SP2605 was 5,492 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.04% and a weekly decrease of 2.14% [6]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5,600 yuan/ton with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.90%; Coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5,350 yuan/ton with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.93%; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4,750 yuan/ton with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.64% [6]. - **External Quotes and Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star's external quote was 710 dollars/ton, up 1.43% from the previous period, and its import cost was 5,802 yuan/ton, up 1.42%; Brazilian Goldfish's external quote was 560 dollars/ton, up 3.70% from the previous period, and its import cost was 4,587 yuan/ton, up 3.66%; Chilean Venus's external quote was 620 dollars/ton with no change, and its import cost was 5,073 yuan/ton with no change [6]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In November 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 72.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.92%; broadleaf pulp imports were 176.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.92%. The shipment volume of pulp to China in November 2025 was 178 thousand tons, a month - on - month increase of 3%. From December 25, 2025, to January 8, 2026, the domestic production of broadleaf pulp was around 25 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was around 23.9 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: As of January 4, 2026, the sample inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 199.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.8%. The inventory of futures delivery warehouses increased from 9.9 tons on December 18, 2025, to 13.5 tons on January 8, 2026 [6]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper products was relatively stable. Double - offset paper production was around 20.4 tons, coated paper production was around 8.4 tons, tissue paper production was around 29.33 tons, and white cardboard production was around 38.3 tons [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - On January 13, platinum and palladium prices generally declined. The PT2606 contract closed down 3.32% to 605.05 yuan/gram, and the PD2606 contract closed down 5.22% to 483.25 yuan/gram. Due to geopolitical tensions, the Fed's independence crisis, and the lower-than-expected core CPI in the US in December leading to increased attention on interest rate cuts, precious metal prices rose significantly again, and platinum and palladium may follow the upward trend. However, from a fundamental perspective, the upward logic of platinum and palladium is not as strong as that of precious metals. As the results of the US 232 investigation are about to be announced, their price movements may still be volatile. In the short term, platinum and palladium are expected to maintain a range-bound pattern, and it is recommended to closely monitor the results of the US 232 investigation. In the long term, with a supply gap in platinum and a tendency towards a loose supply in palladium, the strategy can be to allocate platinum at low prices or choose the [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Prices - Platinum futures main contract closing price: 605.05 yuan/gram, previous value 622.8 yuan/gram, down 2.85%. - Spot platinum (99.95%): 594 yuan/gram, previous value 611 yuan/gram, down 2.78%. - Platinum basis (spot - futures): -11.05 yuan/gram, previous value -11.8 yuan/gram, down 6.36%. - Palladium futures main contract closing price: 483.25 yuan/gram, previous value 505.1 yuan/gram, down 4.33%. - Spot palladium (99.95%): 464.5 yuan/gram, previous value 477.5 yuan/gram, down 2.72%. - Palladium basis (spot - futures): -18.75 yuan/gram, previous value -27.6 yuan/gram, down 32.07% [4] International Prices (15:00) - London spot platinum: $2314.3/ounce, previous value $2349.286/ounce, down 1.49%. - London spot palladium: $1796.275/ounce, previous value $1872.791/ounce, down 4.09%. - NYMEX platinum: $2322/ounce, previous value $2376/ounce, down 2.27%. - NYMEX palladium: $1853/ounce, previous value $1935/ounce, down 4.24% [4] Internal - External 15:00 Spread - USD/CNY central parity rate: 7.0103, previous value 7.0108, down 0.01%. - Guangzhou platinum - London platinum: 15.63 yuan/gram, previous value 24.43 yuan/gram, down 36.01%. - Guangzhou platinum - NYMEX platinum: 13.67 yuan/gram, previous value 17.62 yuan/gram, down 22.44%. - Guangzhou palladium - London palladium: 25.76 yuan/gram, previous value 28.09 yuan/gram, down 8.29%. - Guangzhou palladium - NYMEX palladium: 11.32 yuan/gram, previous value 12.25 yuan/gram, down 7.60% [4][5] Price Ratios - Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio: 1.2520, previous value 1.2330, up 0.0190. - London spot platinum/palladium ratio: 1.2884, previous value 1.2544, up 0.0340 [5] Inventories - NYMEX platinum inventory: 624,755 troy ounces, previous value 625,015 troy ounces, down 0.04%. - NYMEX palladium inventory: 211,306 troy ounces, previous value 211,306 troy ounces, unchanged [5] Positions - NYMEX total platinum positions: 82,836, previous value 79,050, down 4.57%. - NYMEX non - commercial net long positions in platinum: 18,110, previous value 18,042, up 0.38%. - NYMEX total palladium positions: 19,349, previous value 20,593, down 6.04%. - NYMEX non - commercial net long positions in palladium: -571, previous value 579, down 201.40% [5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, precious metals prices are expected to remain strong under the dual support of macro and fundamental factors. However, due to risk - control measures by the Shanghai Futures Exchange and CME, price fluctuations may be significant. It's recommended to control positions. Long - term, the upward logic for precious metals remains unchanged, and strategies should focus on buying on dips or selling slightly out - of - the - money put options [4]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the Fed is in an easing cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties are rising, and dollar credit risks are increasing. Gold prices will likely shift upward, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Price Tracking - On January 13, 2026, London gold spot was at $4580.07/oz, London silver spot at $84.87/oz, COMEX gold at $4588.80/oz, and COMEX silver at $84.71/oz. The prices of AU2602, AG2602, AU (T + D), and AG (T + D) were 1027.18 yuan/g, 21030 yuan/kg, 1024.62 yuan/g, and 21030 yuan/kg respectively. Compared to January 12, 2026, the price increases were 0.1%, 0.6%, 0.0%, 0.4%, 0.1%, 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.4% respectively [3]. - On January 13, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 2.56 yuan/g, and the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was 0 yuan/kg. The gold and silver spreads between domestic and foreign markets and other price spreads also had corresponding values and changes from January 12, 2026 [3]. 3.2 Position Data - As of January 12, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR held 1070.8 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV held 16347.94785 tons. The non - commercial long, short, and net long positions in COMEX gold and silver also had corresponding quantities and changes compared to January 9, 2026, such as a 0.59% increase in gold ETF - SPDR and a - 6.18% decrease in COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - On January 13, 2026, SHFE gold inventory was 98283.00 kg, a 0.65% increase from January 12, 2026, and SHFE silver inventory was 630066.00 kg, a - 3.01% decrease. COMEX gold and silver inventories also had corresponding values and changes [3]. 3.4 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On January 13, 2026, the USD/CNY central parity rate was 7.01, with a - 0.01% change from January 12, 2026. The dollar index, U.S. Treasury yields, VIX, S&P 500, and NYWEX crude oil also had corresponding values and changes [3]. 3.5 Market Review - On January 13, the Shanghai gold futures main contract rose 1.01% to 1027.18 yuan/g, and the Shanghai silver futures main contract rose 5.9% to 21004 yuan/kg [3]. 3.6 Influencing Factor Analysis - Geopolitical risks and the Fed's independence crisis support the strong rise in precious metal prices. The U.S. December data on inflation makes the market increase bets on Fed rate cuts, further driving precious metal prices. Silver's spot premium, futures structure, inventory situation, and the change in photovoltaic export tax - rebate policy also help release silver price elasticity [4]. 3.7 Medium - to - Long - Term Views - In the medium - to - long - term, the Fed's easing cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties, increasing dollar credit risks, and the continued allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents will likely cause the center of gold prices to move upward. Long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Unilateral range - bound震荡思路, hot - rolled coil futures - spot positive arbitrage rolling operation, or use option strategies to assist spot procurement [6] - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: Industrial customers hedge at high prices [6] - Coking Coal and Coke: Buy on dips [6] - Iron Ore: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [6] Group 2: Core Views - Steel market fluctuates greatly, spot follow - up momentum is weak, price has support at low levels but cannot form a resonance rebound [2] - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon fundamentals continue to be under pressure, with high supply and weak demand, and there is a high risk of a subsequent decline [2] - Coking coal spot auctions are mostly rising, and the market enters the "expectation" stage in the off - season, with a preference for buying on dips [4] - Iron ore price touches the resistance level and falls back, with neutral - high valuation and clear upward pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [5] Group 3: Summary by Category Steel - On January 13, the closing prices and price changes of far - month and near - month contracts of steel futures are as follows: for far - month contracts, the closing price of RB2610 is 3321.00 yuan/ton, down 27.50 yuan; for near - month contracts, the closing price of RB2605 is 3303.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot prices of steel in different regions also have corresponding changes. The follow - up of spot prices is weak, and the de - stocking pressure of five - type steel plates exists [1][2] Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Market sentiment is changeable, prices fluctuate greatly, affected by coal - power news. Demand is under pressure due to poor steel prices and low steel mill profits, and supply is high with insufficient production reduction drive from alloy plants [2] Coking Coal and Coke - Spot trading atmosphere of coking coal improves with coke enterprises' replenishment and intermediate - link purchases. Online auctions are mostly rising. In the futures market, there is more resonance and fluctuation in the capital market, with a long - bias. The market is in the off - season, and the subsequent market depends on whether there is enough "expectation" to drive up the price [4] Iron Ore - The iron ore price falls back when it touches the resistance level. The valuation is neutral - high, and the inventory pressure is increasing. It is recommended not to chase long or short, but to wait and see [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View - The PX market has experienced a rapid increase, driven mainly by speculative funds rather than fundamental changes. The futures market dominates price discovery, creating an "irrational boom" with self - reinforcing trends. Despite concerns about bubbles, the PX fundamentals are supported, and the market is expected to remain tight in 2026. The PX - naphtha spread has widened to $360, and the PX - mixed xylene spread has reached $155, improving aromatics extraction economics. The PX market is at a critical juncture between speculative sentiment and fundamental tension. Domestic PTA maintains high - level operations, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the resumption of exports to India since the end of November. The high gasoline spread supports aromatics, and new polyester installations keep polyester load and PTA consumption high, with increasing inventory willingness and strengthening basis. Although domestic polyester demand weakens seasonally, polyester factory production cuts are insufficient to form a negative feedback [2] Group 3: Summary by Indicators Price and Spread Indicators - PTA spot price decreased from 5100 on 2026/1/12 to 5060 on 2026/1/13, a decline of 40 [2] - MEG inner - market price dropped from 3734 on 2026/1/12 to 3686 on 2026/1/13, a decrease of 48 [2] - PTA closing price fell from 5142 to 5140, a decline of 2 [2] - MEG closing price decreased by 65, from 3880 to 3815 [2] - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price remained unchanged at 6520 [2] - Short - fiber basis decreased from 38 to 34, a drop of 4 [2] - The 2 - 3 spread increased from 18 to 16, an increase of 2 [2] - 1.4D imitation large - fiber price decreased from 5275 to 5250, a decline of 25 [2] - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - fiber increased from 1245 to 1270, an increase of 25 [2] - East - China water - bottle chip price decreased from 6125 to 6097, a decline of 28 [2] - Hot - filling polyester bottle chip price decreased from 6125 to 6097, a decline of 28 [2] - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price decreased from 6225 to 6197, a decline of 28 [2] - Outer - market water - bottle chip price remained unchanged at 810 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10600 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee remained unchanged at 4080 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16600 [2] - Cotton 328 price increased from 15365 to 15610, an increase of 245 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1469 to 1377, a decline of 93 [2] - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7210 [2] - Primary low - melting - point short - fiber price remained unchanged at 7775 [2] Cash Flow and Processing Fee Indicators - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6 [2] - Bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 514 to 536, an increase of 22 [2] - Hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 399 to 449, an increase of 50 [2] Market and Production Indicators - Direct - spinning short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 86.77% to 88.84%, an increase of 2.07 percentage points [3] - Polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 87.00% to 80.00%, a decline of 7.00 percentage points [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00% [3] - Recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [3] Market Conditions - Short - fiber: The short - fiber main - contract futures decreased by 24 to 6506. In the spot market, polyester staple fiber production factory prices were stable, while trader prices slightly declined. Downstream buyers purchased on - demand, and on - site transactions were limited. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural - white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East - China market was 6380 - 6650 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included self - pick - up; in the North - China market, it was 6500 - 6770 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included delivery; and in the Fujian market, it was 6440 - 6630 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included delivery [2] - Bottle - chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 6100 - 6180 yuan/ton, with the average price increasing by 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated upward. The cost - side support was strong. Most supply - side quotes remained stable, with local supplies being slightly tight. The low - end price center shifted slightly upward. The overall market trading atmosphere was light, and the market negotiation center shifted slightly upward [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 12, the A-share market rose with heavy volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose more than 1% and achieved 17 consecutive gains, hitting a new high in over 10 years. The Beijing Stock Exchange 50 index soared more than 5%. AI application themes erupted across the board, and the commercial space concept stocks continued to ferment. More than 4,100 stocks in the market rose [5]. - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 1.09% at 4,165.29 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.75%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.82%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 5.35%, the STAR 50 rose 2.43%, the Wind All - A rose 1.72%, the Wind A500 rose 0.81%, and the CSI A500 rose 1.13%. The A - share market's full - day trading volume reached 3.64 trillion yuan, setting a new historical high [5]. 3. Summary by Catalog Market Review - **Index Performance**: - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,165.29 points, up 1.09%. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.75%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.82%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 5.35%, the STAR 50 rose 2.43%, the Wind All - A rose 1.72%, the Wind A500 rose 0.81%, and the CSI A500 rose 1.13% [5]. - The trading volume of the A - share market reached 3.64 trillion yuan, a record high [5]. - **Index Data Details**: - **Shanghai Stock Exchange 50**: The closing price was 1,898.02, with a turnover of 3143.7371 billion yuan, a rise of 0.30%, and a trading volume of 64.46 billion [3]. - **CSI 300**: The closing price was 4,789.9155, with a turnover of 294.83 billion yuan, a rise of 0.65%, and a trading volume of 7999.54 billion [3]. - **CSI 1000**: The closing price was 8,357.0107, with a turnover of 447.23 billion yuan, a rise of 2.80%, and a trading volume of 8275.65 billion [3]. CFFEX Stock Index Options Trading Situation - **Shanghai Stock Exchange 50**: The trading volume of call options was 5.26 million contracts, the trading volume of put options was 3.86 million contracts, the trading volume PCR was 0.36, the open interest of call options was 3.92 million contracts, the open interest of put options was 2.74 million contracts, the open interest PCR was 0.70, and the total open interest was 6.65 million contracts [3]. - **CSI 300**: The trading volume of call options was 21.70 million contracts, the trading volume of put options was 20.69 million contracts, the trading volume PCR was 0.76, the open interest of call options was 11.77 million contracts, the open interest of put options was 8.91 million contracts, the open interest PCR was 0.41, and the total open interest was 35.33 million contracts [3]. - **CSI 1000**: The trading volume of call options was 57.42 million contracts, the trading volume of put options was 22.09 million contracts, the trading volume PCR was 0.63, the open interest of call options was 33.95 million contracts, the open interest of put options was 14.65 million contracts, the open interest PCR was 1.32, and the total open interest was 19.31 million contracts [3]. Volatility Analysis - **Shanghai Stock Exchange 50**: Analyzed historical volatility and the volatility smile curve, including historical volatility cone data such as the 10% quantile, 30% quantile, 60% quantile, 90% quantile, minimum, maximum, and current value, as well as the next - month at - the - money implied volatility [3][4]. - **CSI 300**: Analyzed historical volatility and the volatility smile curve, including historical volatility cone data such as the 10% quantile, 30% quantile, 60% quantile, 90% quantile, minimum, maximum, and current value, as well as the next - month at - the - money implied volatility [3][4]. - **CSI 1000**: Analyzed historical volatility and the volatility smile curve, including historical volatility cone data such as the 10% quantile, 30% quantile, 60% quantile, 90% quantile, minimum, maximum, and current value, as well as the next - month at - the - money implied volatility [3][4].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The estimated ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season remains at 290 million bushels, and the inventory-to-consumption ratio is at a relatively low level of 6.7%, providing some support for the downside of CBOT US soybeans. Attention should be paid to the adjustments of the January USDA Supply and Demand Report to US soybean yield and exports [9]. - There is no obvious speculative driver in the short - term South American weather. Brazil has started harvesting. Under the prediction of Brazilian soybean production, attention should be paid to the impact of the January harvest selling pressure on the Brazilian CNF premium [10]. - Recently, affected by domestic and foreign policy news, the soybean meal futures market is expected to be mainly volatile. In the short term, attention should be paid to the adjustments of the January USDA Supply and Demand Report, the trend of Brazilian premiums, and changes in China - Canada trade policies [10]. - The trend of the M3 - M5 spread is uncertain. Attention should be paid to domestic imported soybean auctions and customs policies, and cautious operation is recommended [10]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Data on Basis - **Soybean Meal Main Contract Basis**: In Dalian, it was 450 on January 12th, down 4; in Tianjin, it was 410, down 4; in Zhangjiagang (43% soybean meal spot basis to the main contract), it was 360, down 4; in Dongguan, it was 350, down 4; in Zhanjiang, it was 390, down 4; in Fangcheng, it was 400 [6]. - **Rapeseed Meal Spot Basis**: In Guangdong, it was 82 on January 12th, down 3; N3 - 2 was 327, up 18 [6]. 3.2 Spread Data - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: The spot spread in Guangdong was 664 on January 12th, up 7; the futures spread of the main contract was 460, up 12 [7]. 3.3 International Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 6.9742, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 147.00 cents per bushel, down 10. The Brazilian soybean crushing margin was 155 yuan per ton [7]. 3.4 Inventory Data - The report presents historical data on China's port soybean inventory, major oil mills' soybean inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, and major oil mills' soybean meal inventory from 2018 - 2025 [7][8]. 3.5开机和压榨情况 (Operation and Pressing Conditions) - The report shows historical data on the operating rate and soybean pressing volume of major oil mills from 2020 - 2025 [8].