Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side: As the southwest region enters the dry season, many furnaces are shut down, leading to a decline in the national production schedule in November [4]. - The demand side: The dry - season in the southwest region causes a decline in the polysilicon production schedule in November, while the silicone production schedule increases month - on - month in November, fluctuating around 200,000 tons per month [4]. - The inventory side: The visible inventory fluctuates, and the balance sheet shows a slight inventory build - up in November. Overall, both supply and demand of industrial silicon decrease, and inventory fluctuates. In the short term, the silicon price may operate in the range of 8,200 - 9,400 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Fluctuations**: SI2512 closed at 9,095 with a 0.22% increase, SI2601 at 9,080 with a 0.11% increase, SI2602 at 9,055 with a 0.11% increase, SI2603 at 9,045 with a 0.06% increase, and SI2604 at 9,040 with a 0.22% decrease [4]. - **Contract Positions**: SI2512 had a position of 27,515, SI2601 had 251,549, SI2602 had 45,536, SI2603 had 18,433, and SI2604 had 10,071 [4]. Spot Market - **Prices in Different Regions and Grades**: In the East China region, 553 (non - oxygen - blowing) was priced at 9,350, 553 (oxygen - blowing) at 9,500, 421 at 9,750, 441 at 9,700, and 3303 at 10,500. In Huangpu Port, 421 was 10,000 and 553 (oxygen - blowing) was 9,400. In Tianjin Port, 421 was 9,800. In Kunming, 553 (oxygen - blowing) was 9,600 and 421 was 10,000. In Sichuan, 421 was 9,800 [4]. - **Related Product Prices**: DMC price was 12,750 (up 500), 107 - rubber was 12,250, polysilicon (dense material per kg) was 51, and the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 was 21,550 (down 100) [4]. Price Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: SI2512 - SI2601 spread was 15, SI2601 - SI2602 spread was 25 (up 10) [4]. - **Spot Spreads**: 421 spot - 553 oxygen - blowing spot spread was 250, and the basis (East China 553 spot - main contract) was 420 (down 60) [4]. Warehouse and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Warehouse Information**: There are multiple warehouses and sub - warehouses with different storage capacities (in ten thousand tons) and premium/discount standards. The total warehouse capacity was 27.55 tons [4]. - **Warehouse Receipt Changes**: The total number of warehouse receipts decreased from 36,414 to 35,475, a decrease of 939 [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, trading volume remains low, and short - term market divergence is expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment, waiting for a new driving main line to push the index up further [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [1] - The recent cooling of the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has led to a callback in copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metal prices, but the callback range of copper is expected to be limited. For different non - ferrous metals, there are different fundamental factors affecting their prices [1] - For various commodities such as steel, energy, and agricultural products, their prices are affected by factors such as seasonality, supply - demand relationship, cost, and macro - sentiment, and most of them are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with different risk and opportunity characteristics [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Stock and Bond Markets - A - shares lack a clear upward main line, trading volume is low, and short - term divergence will be digested during shock adjustment, waiting for a new driving factor [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risks suppress the upward trend [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper price has a limited callback due to the cooling of the Fed rate - cut expectation in December [1] - Aluminum price has a callback due to the cooling of the Fed rate - cut expectation and limited industrial - side drive [1] - Alumina production and inventory are increasing, and the price fluctuates around the cost line [1] - Zinc has support below due to low LME inventory and signs of improvement in the domestic fundamentals [1] - Nickel price may fluctuate weakly in the short term due to macro - weakness and high inventory, and the long - term surplus pattern of primary nickel continues [1] - Stainless steel futures are looking for a bottom in shock, and short - term operations are recommended, paying attention to selling - hedging opportunities [1] - Tin is still bullish in the long - term despite short - term pressure from the Fed rate - cut expectation [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious metals may be under pressure in the short term due to the hawkish statements of Fed officials, and attention should be paid to the upcoming US economic data [1] - Industrial silicon: Northwest production capacity is resuming, Southwest start - up is weaker than usual, and it is affected by polysilicon [1] - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of production - capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation increases marginally in the fourth quarter [1] - Lithium carbonate: It may fluctuate due to the approaching peak season of new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and high hedging pressure [1] Steel and Iron Ore - For steel products, the off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose, and attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices after the macro - sentiment is realized [1] - Iron ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil is expected to run weakly due to the increase in production in the first half of November [1] - Soybean oil has support from domestic consumption demand and export window, but the CBOT soybean's retracement of policy premium has a short - term negative impact [1] - Rapeseed oil: The inability of Canada to cancel tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and plans to increase biodiesel production capacity make it difficult for Canadian rapeseed to be exported to China in the short term, and the basis is stable and slightly strong [1] - Cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and future attention should be paid to relevant policies and planting conditions [1] - Sugar: Global sugar supply turns from shortage to surplus, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be under pressure and follow the trend of raw sugar [1] - Corn: Short - term spot prices are firm, but the selling pressure is postponed, and the upward drive of the futures price is weak [1] - Soybean meal: The short - term upward expectation lacks impetus, and the market may start to trade the selling pressure of South American new crops from December to January [1] Energy and Chemicals - Fuel oil: Affected by OPEC+ production increase, geopolitical factors, and trade policies, it is expected to fluctuate [1] - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is expected to decline due to factors such as the possible falsification of the "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand [1] - Rubber: Different types of rubber have different price trends affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and market atmosphere [1] - PTA and related products: Their prices are affected by factors such as gasoline profit, device maintenance, and raw - material cost [1] - Ethylene glycol: Its price is affected by the decline of crude oil price, the increase of coal price, and the strong expectation of domestic device commissioning [1] - Other chemicals: Their prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and device maintenance [1]

入 期 市 市 官 方 网 站 需 有 线 HA 谨 风 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 慎 险 1. 17日纯碱玻璃震荡。 2. 玻璃方面,近期供给整体持稳,而生产利润再度挤压,市场继续倒逼供 给减量的压力增强。反内卷大逻辑下,供给扰动情绪易发酵。淡季来临, 整体终端需求保有韧性,库存并未大幅累积。当前玻璃估值并不高。同时 煤炭价格偏强,成本有支撑。中期供给过剩格局延续,价格上行阻力大。 行情分析 3、纯碱更多跟随玻璃,但供需相对一般,价格承压。 刘草 交易策略 年碱生仔 00000 250 8000 200 6000 100 2000 = 2024 = 2025 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性 任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资者 需自行判断本报告中的任何意见 或建议是否符合其特定状况,据此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客, 推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我 将视情况追究法律责任。期市有风险,入市需谨慎。〔 I ...

入 期 情 借 服 源 在 热线 官 方 客 网 站 ile 限 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 ts Po 212 . 2018 | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 2012 31号 | | ITG国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 尿素数据日报 | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 期货从业号:F3054270 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈三州 | | 投资咨询证号:Z0015946 | | | 指标 | 2025/11/17 | 2025/11/14 | 涨跌值 | 行情评述 | | | 沫煤 | 465.00 | 465.00 | 0.00 | | | 成本 | 无烟小块 | 920.00 | 920. 00 | 0.00 | | | | 天然气 | 4040. 00 | 4080. 00 | -40. 00 | | | | 河南 | 1600. 00 | 1610.00 | -10.00 | | | | 河北 | 1600.00 | 1620.00 | -20.00 | 本 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 17, domestic commodity futures closed with mixed results, with new energy materials leading the gains and precious metals leading the losses. Industrial products showed mixed performance, while most agricultural products declined [1]. - The steel market is currently in a stage dominated by weak reality and supported by costs. Although steel futures prices rose on Monday, there is still downward pressure in the later stage due to factors such as weak real - estate data and insufficient downstream demand [1]. - The decline in basic metals is due to the hawkish statements of some Fed officials and the fall in the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, which led to a weakening of risk appetite [1]. - The international oil price rebounded weakly. The main trading logic in the international crude oil market remains unchanged, with both positive and negative factors coexisting. In the short term, some factors support the oil price [1]. - The USDA November supply - demand report was neutral to bearish for oilseeds. Domestic soybean meal may continue to trade in a range, and the three major oils may continue to show a differentiated trend [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Performance of Different Commodity Categories - **New Energy Materials**: Lithium carbonate hit the daily limit with a 9.00% increase [1]. - **Shipping Futures**: All shipping futures rose, with the container shipping index (European line) up 6.73% [1]. - **Black Series**: All black - series commodities rose, with iron ore up 1.81%. The steel market is in a stage of weak reality and cost support. Although steel futures prices rose on Monday, there is still downward pressure in the later stage [1]. - **Chemicals**: Most chemicals rose, with urea up 0.79% [1]. - **Energy Products**: Most energy products rose, with LPG up 0.78% [1]. - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals led the losses, with Shanghai silver down 4.08% [1]. - **Basic Metals**: All basic metals declined, with Shanghai aluminum down 1.39% [1]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Most oilseeds and oils declined, with soybeans down 1.23% [1]. - **Non - metallic Building Materials**: All non - metallic building materials declined, with glass down 1.15% [1]. - **Agricultural By - products**: Most agricultural by - products declined, with live pigs down 0.81% [1]. 3.2 Analysis of Specific Commodity Categories 3.2.1 Black Series - The steel market is in a stage of weak reality and cost support. Steel futures prices rose on Monday due to the rebound of raw material prices and the start of environmental inspections in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region. However, in the short term, the expectation of large - scale economic stimulus has cooled, and there is still downward pressure on the steel market due to factors such as weak real - estate data and insufficient downstream demand [1]. 3.2.2 Basic Metals - The decline in basic metals is mainly due to the hawkish statements of some Fed officials and the fall in the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, which led to a weakening of risk appetite and a general softening of the non - ferrous metal market [1]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - The international oil price rebounded weakly. The main trading logic in the international crude oil market remains unchanged, with positive factors including the continuation of US sanctions on oil - producing countries and geopolitical uncertainties, and negative factors including OPEC+'s stance on increasing production and weak global economic demand. In the short term, factors such as the possible end of the US government shutdown and the intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict support the oil price [1]. 3.2.4 Oilseeds and Oils - The USDA November supply - demand report was neutral to bearish for oilseeds. The domestic soybean meal market is under the pressure of weak fundamentals and the support of US soybean costs, and may continue to trade in a range. The three major oils showed a differentiated trend, with palm oil rebounding. Although the Indonesian biodiesel policy boosted palm oil prices, the decline in export demand limited its increase [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range, while in the medium - to long - term, the methanol spot market may shift from strong to weak and fluctuate [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - The prices of most energy and chemical products remained stable on November 14 - 17, 2025. Only the prices of Sichuan - Chongqing LPG, methanol in Taicang and Shandong, methane chloride, and MTBE decreased, while the price of international natural gas increased. Methanol prices in many domestic regions increased slightly. The inventory of enterprises in the northwest main production area was low, and the willingness of downstream and traders to replenish at low prices increased, driving up the auction transaction price. The positive sentiment in the futures market led to smooth transactions of new domestic orders in the afternoon, and some enterprises stopped selling to support prices, pushing up the spot price. However, downstream buyers were mainly on the sidelines, and procurement became more rational after the previous low - price replenishment [1]. Supply - Domestic methanol production, domestic and international operating rates, and arrival volume remained unchanged. The formaldehyde market showed mixed trends. The slight adjustment of raw material methanol strengthened the cost support. Formaldehyde production enterprises faced greater pressure to sell goods as the downstream entered the off - season, and they adjusted their sales mechanisms according to their inventory [1]. Inventory - Both enterprise inventory and port inventory remained unchanged [1]. Demand - The order backlog remained unchanged. The operating rates of downstream industries such as MTO, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, acetic acid, chloride, and MTBE remained unchanged [1]. Associated Product Prices - The prices of most associated products remained stable, while the prices of methane chloride and MTBE decreased [1]. Operation Strategy - The basis strengthened, and the trading volume was average. In the short - term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range, and in the medium - to long - term, the methanol spot market may shift from strong to weak and fluctuate [1].

| | | | | 国留期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 农产品研究中心一层到广杨璐琳 | | | 从业资格号:F3042528 | | 2025/11/18 | | | 地区 | 2025/11/17 | 涨跌值 | 升贴水(修改后) | | 与2601基差 | | 涨跌值 | | | 河南 | 11.53 | -0. 32 | | Or B | -270 | | -320 | | | 湖南 | 11. 33 | 0 | 100 | | -570 > | | 0 | | | 湖北 | 11.23 | -0.12012 | 0 | | -570 | | +1-120 | | | 安徽 | 11.65 | -0.26 | 200 | | -350 | | -260 | | | 江西 | 11.26 | -0. 08 | 100 | | -640 | | -80 | | | 山西 | 11.13 | -0. 32 | -100 | | -570 | | -32 ...

500 FEE CATENZ 国 流的衍生品综合服务 方 生 网 月屋 Fire 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn IC 国兴期货 | IC E 照 斯 S | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 白金属数据 - | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询号:Z0015300 从业资格号:F3043701 | 国贸期货研究员 | 方冒钱 | 2025/11/18 | 投资咨询号:Z0015788 从业资格号:F3040017 | 有色金属研究中心 谢灵 | | | | | | | | | | | 价格指标 | 15:00期货价格 | 变化 (%) | 变化 (%) | 现货价格 | 图表 | 10851 | -0. 83 | 10820. 5 | -1. 43 | 铜 | LME有色金属期货库存(吨) | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp fundamentals have not improved significantly, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for needle pulp in 2026. The futures price may be priced based on Russian needle pulp and high - quality needle pulp. The current futures price is close to the import cost of the delivery product, so there is limited room for further price increases. It is recommended to close the 12 - 1 reverse spread and initiate a 1 - 3 or 1 - 5 reverse spread [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On November 17, 2025, SP2601 was 5474 with a daily decrease of 0.11% and a weekly increase of 0.11%; SP2512 was 4898 with a daily decrease of 0.04% and a weekly increase of 0.53%; SP2605 was 5472 with a daily increase of 0.18% and a weekly increase of 0.37% [6]. - **Spot Prices**: On the same day, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5550 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.91%; Russian needle pulp was 5400 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 5.88%; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4400 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 3.53% [6]. - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In November 2025, the quote for Chilean Silver Star was 680 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars/ton from the previous period, a decrease of 2.86%; Brazilian Goldfish was 530 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.92%; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars/ton, unchanged [6]. - **Import Costs**: The import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% from the previous period; Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged [6]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 69.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.54%; broad - leaf pulp was 135.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.79%. The pulp shipment volume to China was 187 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.50% [6]. - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 211 tons, a 6.1% increase from the previous period. The futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.2 tons [6]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper showed different trends. For example, the production of double - offset paper, copper - plate paper, and other products fluctuated slightly in different periods [6]. Valuation Data - **Basis**: On November 17, 2025, the Russian needle pulp basis was 502 with a quantile level of 0.952; the Silver Star basis was 652 with a quantile level of 0.881 [6]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 9 with a quantile level of 0.594; broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 56 with a quantile level of 0.704 [6].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Malay high-frequency production data shows an increase in production in the first half of November, creating a negative expectation gap, and palm oil is expected to run weakly [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - **24-degree Palm Oil**: On November 17, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8760, 8640, and 8570 respectively, with a decrease of 20 compared to November 14, 2025 [1] - **First-grade Soybean Oil**: On November 17, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu remained unchanged at 8450, 8590, and 8640 respectively compared to November 14, 2025 [1] - **Fourth-grade Rapeseed Oil**: On November 17, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 10240, 10290, and 10520 respectively, with a decrease of 50 compared to November 14, 2025 [1] Futures Data - **Bean - Palm Main Contract Spread**: On November 17, 2025, it was -398, a decrease of 10 compared to November 14, 2025 [1] - **Rapeseed - Bean Main Contract Spread**: On November 17, 2025, it was 1598, a decrease of 69 compared to November 14, 2025 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: On November 17, 2025, palm oil warehouse receipts were 730 (unchanged), soybean oil warehouse receipts were 24777 (a decrease of 216), and rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 5323 (unchanged) compared to November 14, 2025 [1] Production, Export, and Inventory - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: According to SPPOMA, from November 1 - 15, 2025, the yield per unit increased by 0.82% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.43%, and production increased by 4.09% compared to the same period last month; the production in the first 10 days decreased by 4% compared to the same period last month [2] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Export**: According to ITS, from November 1 - 15, 2025, exports decreased by 15.5% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 10, 2025, exports decreased by 12.8% compared to the same period last month. According to AmSpec, from November 1 - 15, 2025, exports decreased by 10% compared to the same period last month; from November 1 - 10, 2025, exports decreased by 10% compared to the same period last month [2] - **Domestic Palm Oil Inventory**: As of November 14, 2025, the national commercial inventory of palm oil was 653,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.36%, at a recent high [2] - **US Soybean Production and Export**: In the 2025/26 season, the predicted production of US soybeans is 4.266 billion bushels, the yield per unit is 53.1 bushels per acre, and the ending inventory is 304 million bushels. The predicted export is 1.635 billion bushels, a decrease of 50 million bushels compared to the September prediction [2] - **Domestic Soybean Oil Inventory**: As of November 14, 2025, the national commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.1485 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75% [2] - **Rapeseed Oil Import**: The predicted import volume of rapeseed oil in November 2025 is 226,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 26.3%) due to the concentrated arrival of new - season Russian rapeseed oil [2]