Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The market expects a concentrated rush to ship before April 1st, which will advance the export volume of photovoltaic modules after April next year. Subsequently, this part of the export volume will decline. The rush to ship may temporarily alleviate the post - holiday decline in freight rates, but it is difficult to benefit most shipping companies, and a price war in the off - season is inevitable. The main contract is supported in the short term, but the benefits of the rush to ship need to be verified. As the subsequent export decline leads to a contraction in cargo volume, the futures market is more suitable for positive spread operations. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Index**: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1647, 1195, 2218, 1323, 3128, 1719, 1956, and 3232 respectively. The previous values are 1656, 1147, 2188, 1250, 3033, 1690, 1795, and 3143 respectively. Their corresponding daily changes are - 0.54%, 4.21%, 1.37%, 5.84%, 3.13%, 1.72%, 8.97%, and 2.83% [4]. 3.2 Market News - The US Supreme Court has set Friday as the "judgment day", which will be the first possible time to rule on President Donald Trump's global tariff policy. If the court rules that Trump's tariffs are illegal, it will weaken his iconic economic policy and become the most significant legal setback since his return to the White House [5]. - According to Lloyd's List Intelligence, the US action to oust Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro has further accelerated the trend of "shadow fleet" tankers transferring under Russian flag protection [5]. - The Asia - Europe route has entered the peak shipping season, and liner companies have increased their capacity deployment. According to Xeneta, the capacity supply on the Asia - Pacific to Northern Europe route this week has reached a record high. The pre - Spring Festival rush to ship has begun on the Asia - Pacific to Northern Europe route. Some market observers believe that there are signs of "frontloading" in addition to seasonal demand, while others think that the cargo volume in January is still within the normal historical range [5]. 3.3 Market Quotes - **Spot Price**: The GEMINI quotes of Maersk in the fourth week of January showed differentiation. The Shanghai - Rotterdam quote was 2700 dollars/FEU (a 100 - dollar increase from the previous period), while the quotes from Ningbo - Rotterdam and Shanghai - Gdansk dropped to 2400 dollars/FEU (230 dollars lower than the European base port). Hapag - Lloyd followed the alliance's rhythm, and its quote center fell to 2300 - 2700 dollars/FEU. The OA quotes were unstable in the first half of January. In the second half, EMC quoted 2800 - 2950 dollars/FEU from January 16th to 22nd, still at a high level but with reduced price - holding strength. YML quoted 2600 dollars/FEU from January 16th to 22nd, lower than OA and MSC, and did not follow Maersk's price cut for the time being. MSC's quote in the second half of January was 2840 dollars/FEU, the same as in the first half, and did not follow Maersk's price reduction [6]. 3.4 Impact of Policy Adjustment on the Shipping Market - The State Taxation Administration issued an announcement on adjusting the export tax - refund policy for photovoltaic products. Currently, China exports an average of 35,000 - 40,000 TEU of photovoltaic modules to Europe per month, accounting for about 5% of the total export volume on the European route. It is estimated that before April 1st, the cargo volume on the European route will increase by about 30,000 TEU due to the rush to ship, which is expected to consume the capacity of two 15,000 - TEU ships. After April, third - party institutions predict that the monthly freight volume on the European route will decrease by 3000 - 4000 TEU, accounting for about 0.4%, putting pressure on the demand for far - month contracts [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - On January 12, platinum and palladium prices generally rose. The PT2606 contract closed up 4.65% to 622.8 yuan/gram, and the PD2606 contract closed up 3.59% to 505.1 yuan/gram. Macro - level factors such as geopolitical tensions, a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell weakening Fed independence, and lower - than - expected US non - farm payrolls in December boosted platinum and palladium prices. The upcoming release of the US 232 investigation results, with market expectations of possible import tariffs on platinum and palladium (especially palladium), also supported the prices. - In the short term, platinum and palladium are expected to maintain a moderately strong trading range. It is recommended to closely monitor the results of the US 232 investigation. - In the long - term, with a supply - demand gap for platinum and a trend towards supply loosening for palladium, the strategy can be to allocate platinum at low prices or choose the [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Domestic Prices (yuan/gram) - **Platinum**: The platinum futures main contract closing price was 622.8 yuan/gram (previous value 599.8 yuan/gram, up 3.83%), the spot platinum (99.95%) price was 611 yuan/gram (previous value 580 yuan/gram, up 5.34%), and the basis (spot - futures) was - 11.8 yuan/gram (previous value - 19.8 yuan/gram, down 40.40%) [4]. - **Palladium**: The palladium futures main contract closing price was 505.1 yuan/gram (previous value 499.05 yuan/gram, up 1.21%), the spot palladium (99.95%) price was 477.5 yuan/gram (previous value 455 yuan/gram, up 4.95%), and the basis (spot - futures) was - 27.6 yuan/gram (previous value - 44.05 yuan/gram, down 37.34%) [4]. International Prices (15:00, dollars/ounce) - **Platinum**: London spot platinum was 2349.286 dollars/ounce (previous value 2279 dollars/ounce, up 3.08%), NYMEX platinum was 2376 dollars/ounce (previous value 2289.5 dollars/ounce, up 3.78%) [4]. - **Palladium**: London spot palladium was 1872.791 dollars/ounce (previous value 1851.135 dollars/ounce, up 1.17%), NYMEX palladium was 1935 dollars/ounce (previous value 1916.5 dollars/ounce, up 0.97%) [4]. Internal - External 15:00 Price Differences (yuan/gram) - **Platinum**: The price difference between domestic platinum and London platinum was 24.43 yuan/gram (previous value 19.16 yuan/gram, up 27.47%), and the price difference between domestic platinum and NYMEX platinum was 17.62 yuan/gram (previous value 16.49 yuan/gram, up 6.88%) [4]. - **Palladium**: The price difference between domestic palladium and London palladium was 27.42 yuan/gram (previous value 28.09 yuan/gram, down 2.44%), and the price difference between domestic palladium and NYMEX palladium was 12.25 yuan/gram (previous value 10.77 yuan/gram, up 13.72%) [5]. Ratios - The ratio of platinum to palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 1.2330 (previous value 1.2019, an increase of 0.0311), and the ratio of London spot platinum to palladium was 1.2544 (previous value 1.2311, an increase of 0.0233) [5]. Inventory (troy ounces) - NYMEX platinum inventory was 624755 troy ounces (previous value 625015 troy ounces, down 0.04%), and NYMEX palladium inventory was 211306 troy ounces (previous value 211306 troy ounces, unchanged) [5]. Positions - NYMEX total platinum position was 82836 (previous value 79050, down 4.57%), non - commercial net long platinum position was 18110 (previous value 18042, up 0.38%). NYMEX total palladium position was 19349 (previous value 20593, down 6.04%), non - commercial net long palladium position was - 571 (previous value 284, down 201.40%) [5].

2）影响因素分析: 一方面，特朗普发表关于伊朗局势的较为激进言论、令市场对美伊局势或进一步升级的担忧加剂，超险需求升温推开贵金属价格，另一方面, 同帮班，美联储主席鲍威尔遭刑事调查加剧市场对美联储独立性的担忧，同时在政治施压下市场或提前博弈降息加码预期，也对责金属价格构成利好。其次，从基本面上来 取提微微青，白银现货维持升水，现货偏紧格局不改、加上光伏出口退税政策短期或改善自银需求预期，都进一步助力报价弹性释放。综上、展望后市，短期在宏观和基本 赌《个》面支撑的双重利好下，预计贵金属价格科维持筛强运行，但在上期所、芝商所均领赛出台风控指施以利制投机亲度和贵金属市场获利了结压力仍较大等背景下、其 ■39. 以 价格波动幅度或仍会较为剧烈、建议控制仓位。后续，需继续密切关注伊朗局势进展、美联储主席鲍威尔调查和新任主席人选、特朗普夫税期决、美国2030直结果 供参考) 、美国CPI 等一系列事件。长期来看，贵金属的上涨逻辑并未逆转，策略上仍以逢低做多或卖浅虚看跌期权为主。 3）中长期现点：中长期来看，美联储仍处于宽松周期、大国博弈加剧和进全球化趋势将令全球地缘不确定性持续、美国巨额债务承美联储独立性削弱将进一步增 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Today, pulp futures weakened significantly due to the macro - sentiment of commodities but did not break the 5400 - 5700 trading range. One can consider high - selling and low - buying within this range [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On January 10, 2026, SP2601 was 5418 yuan/ton, down 1.13% day - on - day and 0.99% week - on - week; SP2609 was 5231 yuan/ton, down 1.18% day - on - day and 0.47% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5490 yuan/ton, down 1.08% day - on - day and 0.72% week - on - week [6] - **Spot Prices**: On January 10, 2026, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5600 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day and up 0.90% week - on - week; the price of coniferous pulp Russian Needle was 5400 yuan/ton, up 1.89% day - on - day and unchanged week - on - week; the price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4750 yuan/ton, up 0.64% day - on - day and 1.06% week - on - week [6] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: In January 2026, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 710 dollars/ton, up 1.43% month - on - month; the quote of Brazilian Goldfish was 560 dollars/ton, up 3.70% month - on - month; the quote of Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6] - **Import Costs**: In January 2026, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5802 yuan/ton, up 1.42% month - on - month; the import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4587 yuan/ton, up 3.66% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In November 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.5 tons, up 4.92% month - on - month; the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 176.5 tons, up 33.92% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in November 2025 was 178 thousand tons, up 3.00% month - on - month. The domestic production of broad - leaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed certain fluctuations from December 2025 to January 2026 [6] - **Inventory**: As of January 4, 2026, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 199.7 tons, up 4.8% month - on - month. The pulp port inventory and futures delivery warehouse inventory also showed different trends from December 2025 to January 2026 [6] - **Demand**: The demand side of pulp has been stable recently. The price of household paper has risen slightly, while the prices of other paper products have been stable. The production of major wood - pulp paper has been stable. From December 2025 to January 2026, the production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, household paper, and white cardboard showed certain fluctuations [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The short - term upward trend of stock indices is expected to continue, and the bullish view on stock indices in 2026 persists. Investors are advised to mainly go long and prioritize far - month contracts due to their higher discount advantages [8] Summary According to Related Content Money Market - DRO01 closed at 1.33 with a 5.43bp increase, DR007 at 1.49 with a 1.75bp increase, GC001 at 1.58 with a 23.50bp increase, GC007 at 1.59 with a 6.00bp increase, SHBOR 3M at 1.60 with a 0.30bp increase, and LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change. The 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds closed at 1.30, 1.64, and 1.87 respectively, with decreases of 4.63bp, 1.12bp, and 1.38bp. The 10 - year US Treasury bond closed at 4.18 with a 1.00bp decrease [4] - The central bank conducted 86.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 50 billion yuan of repurchase maturities, the net injection was 36.1 billion yuan [4] - This week, there are 1323.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities in the central bank's open market, and there will also be 110 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase maturities on Thursday and 6 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit maturities on Friday. After the holiday, the inter - bank market funds remained loose, and the weighted average interest rate of DR001 slightly increased and hovered around 1.3% [5] Stock Index Market - The CSI 300 closed at 4790 with a 0.65% increase, the SSE 50 at 3144 with a 0.30% increase, the CSI 500 at 8249 with a 2.39% increase, and the CSI 1000 at 8357 with a 2.80% increase. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 3645 billion yuan, a significant increase of nearly 500 billion yuan from the previous trading day, setting a record high for A - share trading volume [7] - The trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts increased by 5.2%, 0.6%, 7.7%, and 20.5% respectively, while the positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed by 0.9%, - 1.2%, - 2.4%, and 2.5% respectively [7] - The IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts showed different levels of premium and discount rates in different periods. For example, the IF current - month contract had a premium rate of 0.98%, and the IC current - month contract had a discount rate of - 27.29% [9]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PX market has seen a rapid increase, mainly driven by speculative funds rather than fundamental changes. The futures market dominates price discovery, showing "irrational exuberance" with self - reinforcing trends. Despite concerns about bubbles, PX fundamentals are supported, and the market is expected to tighten in 2026 due to new PTA capacity in India and organic demand growth [2] - PTA maintains high - level operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and resumed exports to India since late November. The high gasoline spread supports aromatics, and new polyester installations keep polyester load high, leading to high PTA consumption and a strengthening basis [2] - For MEG, overseas plant maintenance plans increase, but with the continuous decline of coal prices and new plant production, market supply pressure is large. However, it may be supported by domestic policies under the carbon neutrality background [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Comparison - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price rose from 432.7 yuan/barrel on January 9, 2026, to 437.5 yuan/barrel on January 12, 2026, an increase of 4.80 yuan [2] - **PTA**: PTA - SC decreased by 0.88 yuan/ton, PTA/SC ratio decreased, CFR China PX increased by 5 to 897, PX - naphtha spread increased by 5 to 346. PTA main - contract futures price rose by 34.0 yuan/ton to 5142 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose by 65.0 yuan to 5035 yuan/ton. Spot processing fee increased by 39.9 yuan/ton to 352.3 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee increased by 8.9 yuan/ton to 394.3 yuan/ton. The main - contract basis decreased by 3.0, and the number of PTA warehouse receipts increased by 600 to 100820 [2] - **MEG**: MEG main - contract futures price rose by 14.0 yuan/ton to 3880 yuan/ton, MEG - naphtha decreased by 5.5 yuan/ton, MEG internal - market price rose by 37.0 yuan to 3734 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis decreased by 7.0 [2] - **Industry Operation Rates**: PX operation rate remained at 87.87%, PTA operation rate remained at 77.40%, MEG operation rate increased by 0.41% to 61.12%, and polyester load decreased by 0.32% to 87.80% [2] - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F price rose by 155.0 to 6695, POY cash flow increased by 87.0. FDY150D/96F price rose by 145.0 to 6890, FDY cash flow increased by 77.0. DTY150D/48F price rose by 35.0 to 7780, DTY cash flow decreased by 33.0. 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price rose by 5 to 6520, polyester staple fiber cash flow decreased by 63.0. Semi - bright chip price rose by 45.0 to 5770, chip cash flow decreased by 23.0. Long - filament sales rate increased from 45% to 69%, short - fiber sales rate increased from 77% to 81%, and chip sales rate increased from 64% to 72% [2] 2. Device Maintenance - This week, the 500,000 - ton device of Sanfangxiang is in the process of restarting, and another 750,000 - ton device will be under maintenance soon, with the load gradually decreasing. In addition, the devices of Xinjiang Yipu and Jinyu in December are under maintenance, and some factories such as Tiansheng and Guxiandao have reduced their loads [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, mainly driven by speculative funds rather than fundamental changes. The futures market is leading the price - discovery mechanism, showing a "irrational prosperity" feature with self - reinforcing trends. Although there are concerns about bubbles, the PX fundamentals are supported, and the market is expected to remain tight in 2026. The PX - naphtha spread has widened to $360, and the PX - mixed xylene spread has reached $155, improving the economics of aromatics extraction. The PX market is at a critical juncture between speculative sentiment and fundamental tensions. [2] Group 3: Summary According to the Data in the Report Price and Price Change - From January 9th to January 12th, 2026, the PTA spot price rose from 5035 to 5100, an increase of 65; the MEG inner - market price rose from 3697 to 3734, an increase of 37; the PTA closing price rose from 5108 to 5142, an increase of 34; the MEG closing price rose from 3866 to 3880, an increase of 14; the 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price rose from 6515 to 6520, an increase of 5; the short - fiber basis decreased from 54 to 38, a decrease of 16; the 2 - 3 spread remained unchanged at 18; the polyester staple fiber cash - flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6; the 1.4D imitation - large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5275; the price difference between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation - large - chemical fiber increased from 1240 to 1245, an increase of 5; the East - China water - bottle chip price rose from 6062 to 6125, an increase of 63; the hot - filling polyester bottle chip price rose from 6062 to 6125, an increase of 63; the carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price rose from 6162 to 6225, an increase of 63; the outer - market water - bottle chip price rose from 800 to 810, an increase of 10; the bottle - chip spot processing fee decreased from 519 to 514, a decrease of 5; the T32S pure - polyester yarn price rose from 10500 to 10600, an increase of 100; the T32S pure - polyester yarn processing fee rose from 3985 to 4080, an increase of 95; the polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16600; the cotton 328 price decreased from 15510 to 15365, a decrease of 145; the polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1418 to 1469, an increase of 51; the primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7210; the hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash - flow decreased from 467 to 399, a decrease of 68; the primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7775. [2] Market Conditions - **Short - fiber market**: The short - fiber main futures rose 8 to 6502. The polyester staple fiber production factory prices were stable, and the trader prices increased slightly. Downstream buyers purchased as needed, and the on - site transactions were light. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East - China market was 6400 - 6650 for cash - on - delivery, tax - included self - pick - up; in the North - China market, it was 6520 - 6770 for cash - on - delivery, tax - included delivery; in the Fujian market, it was 6460 - 6630 for cash - on - delivery, tax - included delivery. The direct - spinning staple - fiber load increased from 86.77% to 88.84%, and the polyester staple - fiber production and sales increased from 72.00% to 87.00%. The polyester - yarn startup rate and the recycled cotton - type load index remained unchanged. [2][3] - **Bottle - chip market**: Crude oil continued to rise, and raw materials were strong. Supply continued to shrink, and polyester bottle - chip factory quotes mostly increased by 10 - 100. The market center increased significantly. It was reported that the January supply was traded at 6050 - 6140, with some supplies slightly lower at 6030, 6000, and slightly higher at 6170. The basis was stable, and the 2603 contract was at par to a premium of 40. Downstream buyers made sporadic spot purchases for rigid needs, and the trading was light. [2] Industry Situation - Domestic PTA maintained a high operating rate, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the resumption of exports to India since the end of November. The high gasoline spread supported aromatics. The commissioning of new polyester plants kept the polyester load at a high level, the PTA consumption remained high, and the market's inventory - stocking willingness increased, with the basis strengthening rapidly. Although domestic polyester demand weakened seasonally, the production cuts by polyester factories were not enough to form a negative feedback. [2][3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Core Views - The stock index is expected to maintain an upward trend in the short - term, and investors are advised to go long, preferably choosing far - month contracts [1] - The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] - The prices of copper, aluminum, precious metals, platinum, and palladium are expected to remain strong, while the prices of zinc, nickel, and stainless steel are volatile [1] - For agricultural products, the trading strategies vary according to different varieties, such as waiting for opportunities in palm oil, going long on soybean oil, and being cautious about rapeseed oil [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, the market conditions are complex, with some products facing supply - demand imbalances and price pressures [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: The stock index has broken through strongly with abundant market funds. With positive macro - fundamental data, it is expected to maintain an upward trend in the short - term. Investors are advised to go long, with a preference for far - month contracts [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With improved market sentiment and tight mine supply, copper prices are expected to remain strong [1] - **Aluminum**: The supply of electrolytic aluminum is restricted, and with improved macro - sentiment, the price is expected to be strong. Alumina supply has room for release, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Zinc**: The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stable, but there is inventory pressure. Although the price has a supplementary increase due to good macro - sentiment, the upside space is limited [1] - **Nickel**: The market's concern about nickel supply has decreased, but there is uncertainty in Indonesia's policy. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and short - term long positions at low prices are recommended [1] - **Stainless Steel**: The price of raw material nickel - iron is rising, and the social inventory of stainless steel is slightly decreasing. The steel mill's production plan in January has increased. The stainless - steel futures are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and short - term operations are recommended [1] - **Tin**: The tin price has strengthened due to good macro - sentiment, but there is pressure on the fundamentals. The subsequent trend is mainly affected by market sentiment, and attention should be paid to capital withdrawal [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - **Gold and Silver**: Due to the intensification of the Iranian geopolitical situation and the investigation of the Fed Chairman, precious - metal prices have strengthened. Gold and silver are expected to remain strong in the short - term but with high volatility [1] - **Platinum and Palladium**: Supported by macro - factors and the upcoming US 232 investigation results, platinum and palladium are expected to continue a strong trend with wide fluctuations. In the long - term, platinum can be bought at low prices or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be considered [1] Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in the southwest. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is the traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles, and the energy - storage demand is strong. The supply side has increased production, and the price is expected to rise rapidly in the short - term [1] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The short - term sentiment and capital have a greater impact than industrial contradictions. Unilateral long positions with stop - losses can be attempted, and positive - spread positions can be participated in the spot - futures market [1] - **Iron Ore**: Although there is sector rotation, there is obvious upward pressure on iron ore, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1] - **Silicon Iron**: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply - demand situation is weak, but energy - consumption control and anti - involution may affect supply [1] - **Glass**: The short - term market sentiment has improved, and supply - demand provides support, but the medium - term supply - demand will remain in surplus, and the price will face pressure [1] - **Soda Ash**: It follows the trend of glass, and the medium - term supply - demand is more relaxed, so the price is under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: If the "capacity - reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre - holiday inventory replenishment in the spot market, there may be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and caution is needed after a large increase [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: After the release of the MPOB report, it is waiting for the opportunity to go long when the origin reduces production and inventory. Short - term waiting and watching are recommended [1] - **Soybean Oil**: It has strong fundamentals and is recommended to be overweighted in the oil market. A [long soybean oil, short palm oil] spread strategy can be considered, and waiting for the January USDA report [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: With the possible improvement of China - Canada trade relations and the expected increase in global rapeseed production, the price is expected to decline, but short - term rebounds due to macro - sentiment should be watched out for [1] - **Cotton**: There is support but no driving force in the short - term. Future attention should be paid to the central No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, cotton - planting intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1] - **Sugar**: There is a global surplus and an increase in domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital side [1] - **Corn**: The grain - selling progress has slowed down but is still faster than the same period last year. The port inventory is low, and there is inventory - replenishment demand before the festival. The spot price is firm, and the futures price is expected to be strong [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by domestic and foreign policies, the futures price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the January USDA report, Brazilian premium trends, and China - Canada trade policies. Caution is needed in operating the M3 - M5 spread [1] Forest Products - **Pulp**: Affected by the decline in the commodity macro - market, the price has fallen but has not broken through the oscillation range. Due to high short - term commodity - sentiment fluctuations, waiting and watching are recommended [1] - **Log**: The spot price has shown signs of bottom - rebounding, and the futures price has limited downward space. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: Affected by OPEC+ policies, the Russia - Ukraine peace - agreement uncertainty, and US sanctions on Venezuela, the price is expected to oscillate [1] - **Bitumen**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent and follows the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction - rush demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit margin is high [1] - **Natural Rubber**: The raw - material cost provides strong support, the spot - futures price difference has rebounded significantly, and the mid - stream inventory has increased significantly [1] - **BR Rubber**: The increase in the BR price has slowed down, the spot price has led the correction of the basis, and the BD/BR listing price has been continuously raised. The processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. There are positive factors for the export of domestic butadiene in the long - term [1] - **PX and PTA**: The PX market has risen rapidly, and the fundamentals are expected to tighten in 2026. The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and the downstream demand is slightly better than expected [1] - **Styrene**: The Asian styrene market is stable. Suppliers are reluctant to cut prices due to losses, while buyers are pressing for price cuts due to weak downstream demand. The market is in a weak - balance state, and the upward momentum depends on the overseas market [1] - **Urea**: The upside space is limited due to weak exports and domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1] - **Propylene**: The supply pressure is high due to high - level operation and low - level downstream improvement. The cost is supported by the high price of propylene monomers and the rising crude - oil price. There is a risk of crude - oil price increase due to intensified geopolitical conflicts [1] - **PVC**: The global production in 2026 is expected to be low, and the future is optimistic. However, the current fundamentals are poor. The cancellation of export tax - rebates may lead to a rush for exports, and the differential electricity price in the northwest region may force the clearance of PVC production capacity [1] - **LPG**: The import - gas cost is strongly supported by the unexpected increase in the January CP. The geopolitical conflicts in the US, Venezuela, and the Middle East have raised the short - term risk premium. The inventory is expected to decrease, and the downstream olefin products are performing strongly [1] Others - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: It is expected to peak in the middle of the month. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions, and there is still pressure for pre - holiday inventory replenishment [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On the demand side, the number of maintenance shutdowns in the material sector increased in January, with a month - on - month decline in production, but the prosperity was higher than in previous years. On the supply side, production scheduling decreased in January, and no large - scale production increase was seen. Weekly data showed a small increase in production and a slight inventory accumulation, indicating obvious off - season characteristics. Coupled with a large short - term increase and a large number of profit - taking positions, lithium prices may fluctuate in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate had an average price of 152,000 with a 12,000 increase; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate had an average price of 148,500 with a 12,000 increase [1] Lithium Futures Contracts - Lithium carbonate 2601 had a closing price of 146,000 with a 3.94% increase; lithium carbonate 2602 had a closing price of 153,440 with an 8.99% increase; lithium carbonate 2603 had a closing price of 153,900 with an 8.99% increase; lithium carbonate 2604 had a closing price of 156,660 with an 8.99% increase; lithium carbonate 2605 had a closing price of 156,060 with a 9% increase [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China, Li20: 5.5% - 6%) had an average price of 1,980 with a 100 increase; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) had an average price of 3015 with a 250 increase; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) had an average price of 4640 with a 400 increase; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) had an average price of 15,900 with a 1575 increase; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) had an average price of 17,650 with a 1575 increase [1][2] Cathode Materials - Lithium iron phosphate (power type) had an average price of 53,770 with a 3,015 increase; ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) had an average price of 200,500 with a 9,600 increase; ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) had an average price of 177,500 with a 7,300 increase; ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) had an average price of 178,900 with an 8,200 increase [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 3,500; the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract production was - 640 with a - 4,060 change; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was 120 with a - 460 change; the spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract was - 3,220 with a - 1,020 change [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) was 109,942 with a 337 increase; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) was 18,382 with a 715 increase; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) was 36,540 with a - 2,458 change; the other inventory (weekly, tons) was 55,020 with a 2,080 increase; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) were 610 [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally was 145,425, and the profit was 4,535; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally was 142,007, and the profit was 4,483 [2] Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology led a warning on the irrational competition in the lithium battery industry, and more than a dozen leading enterprises participated. On January 7, four departments jointly held a symposium on the power and energy - storage battery industry to regulate the competition order. 16 companies were convened, including 13 battery enterprises and 3 system integrators, and two industry associations participated [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the meal sector is "oscillation" [4]. Core View of the Report - The meal sector is expected to trade in a range, and investors should pay attention to policy changes. The domestic resumption of imported soybean auctions brings the expectation of improved supply in the first quarter. The meal futures market is expected to be mainly oscillatory in the near term, influenced significantly by policy news. In the short term, investors are advised to focus on the adjustment of the January USDA Supply and Demand Report, the trend of Brazilian premiums, and changes in China - Canada trade policies [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The supply factor is bullish. As of January 3, 2026, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest rate was 0.1%, lower than last year and the five - year average. In Argentina, as of January 7, the sowing progress was 88.3% with a slowdown due to waterlogging. In January, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are expected to decline rapidly. The estimated arrival volume of domestic soybeans in the first quarter of next year is 1.58 billion tons, but the commercial crushing volume is insufficient, with policy being a variable. Under the current China - Canada trade policy, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to decrease, while the supply of Australian rapeseed is expected to increase [4]. - **Demand**: For soybean meal, demand is bullish; for rapeseed meal, it is bearish. Short - term high pig inventories support feed demand, but national policies may affect long - term supply. Downstream pre - holiday stocking of soybean meal is expected to be active due to concerns about soybean shortages and customs inspection delays in the first quarter of next year. Recently, the downstream trading of soybean meal has been normal with good提货 performance, while the downstream trading of rapeseed meal has been cautious [4]. - **Inventory**: Inventory is neutral. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level in the same period of history, with slow inventory depletion and large spot supply pressure. It is expected that inventories will decline rapidly in January. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased, and domestic rapeseed meal inventory has been continuously decreasing [4]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis is neutral [4]. - **Profit**: Profit is bearish. The new - crop soybean purchasing and crushing margins in China are good, and the crushing margins of Canadian rapeseed are also good [4]. - **Valuation**: Valuation is neutral. From the perspective of crushing margins, the futures price of soybean meal is over - valued; from the perspective of absolute price, it is under - valued [4]. - **Macro and Policy**: Macro and policy factors are bearish. China will auction 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans on January 13, and investors should pay attention to the auction results. They should also focus on the visit of Canadian Prime Minister Carney to China next week [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, the market is expected to oscillate, and risks related to policy and weather should be monitored. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see [4]. Part Two: Fundamental Supply - Demand Data of Meal - **Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: In December, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of US soybeans remained unchanged in the 2025/26 season, while the global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio increased. The global rapeseed inventory - to - consumption ratio also increased [31][38]. - **US Soybean**: The domestic crushing profit of US soybeans has declined, the NOPA soybean crushing volume and USDA monthly soybean crushing volume data are presented, and the export sales progress of US soybeans is slow [48][55][57]. - **Brazilian Soybean**: The planting progress chart of Brazilian soybeans is provided, and the CNF premium trend chart and import soybean futures margin of soybeans are presented [64][66]. - **Canadian Rapeseed**: The CFR price and import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed are shown [69]. - **Domestic Market**: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, and the inventories of feed enterprises are also high. The inventory of domestic imported rapeseed and rapeseed meal is presented. The operating rate and crushing volume of major domestic oil mills are shown. The trading volume and提货 volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal of oil mills are provided. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal and the single - protein price ratio are given. The monthly feed production volume is presented. The pig and poultry breeding profits, prices, weights, and inventory data are also provided [78][84][94]