1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment is positive, and the non - ferrous metals sector continues to strengthen. The prices of various non - ferrous metals show different trends, and different metals have different investment outlooks based on macro factors, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes. For copper, although the industrial side is weak recently, the macro sentiment is positive, and the copper price is expected to rise further. For zinc, the smelting cost center has moved up, and the zinc price is expected to strengthen in the short - term under the good macro sentiment. For nickel and stainless steel, the nickel price may run strongly in the short - term, and the stainless steel futures may fluctuate strongly in the short - term [9][87][195] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and various metal prices such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. Different metals have different daily, weekly, and annual price changes. For example, the US dollar index is at 98.0 with a daily increase of 0.13%, a weekly decrease of 0.69%, and an annual decrease of 9.63%. The price of Shanghai copper is 98,720 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 2.61%, a weekly increase of 5.95%, and an annual increase of 33.82% [6] 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Macro Factors**: Positive. The better - than - expected US economic data shows strong economic resilience, and the Japanese government's large - scale budget plan improves global liquidity. The Chinese central bank maintains the LPR unchanged, and there is still room for domestic interest rate cuts [9] - **Raw Material**: Positive. The spot processing fee of copper ore is slightly lower, the port inventory has slightly increased, and the long - term processing fee benchmark for 2026 has changed [9] - **Smelting**: Neutral. The profit of smelters using spot copper ore has decreased, while the profit of those using long - term contracts has also declined [9] - **Demand**: Negative. The high copper price has led to large - scale shutdowns of downstream enterprises, and the operating rate of refined copper rods has further declined [9] - **Inventory**: Negative. It is the domestic consumption off - season, and the global visible copper inventory has significantly increased [9] - **Investment View**: Bullish. Although the industrial side is weak, the macro sentiment is positive, and there is a continuous premium for US copper, so it is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on a single - side basis when the price is low; no arbitrage strategy is recommended [9] 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Macro Factors**: Slightly positive. The central bank of China implements a moderately loose monetary policy, and the better - than - expected US GDP growth and other factors have boosted market sentiment [87] - **Raw Material**: Slightly positive. The domestic processing fee has been reduced, and the supply of domestic ores is still tight, but the short - term processing fee is expected to remain low and stable [87] - **Smelting**: Neutral. The smelting profit is inverted again, but the zinc ingot supply is expected to increase in January [87] - **Demand**: Slightly negative. Affected by environmental protection, holidays, and the off - season, the galvanizing operating rate is expected to be weak [87] - **Inventory**: Slightly negative. The social inventory has decreased, while the LME inventory has increased, and the price ratio has been adjusted [87] - **Investment View**: Bullish. The smelting cost center of zinc has moved up, and the zinc price is expected to strengthen in the short - term under the good macro sentiment [87] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on a single - side basis; conduct long - short arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [87] 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Macro Factors**: Slightly positive. The better - than - expected US GDP data and the decline of the US dollar index have boosted the non - ferrous metals sector. Attention is paid to the introduction of domestic growth - stabilizing policies [195] - **Raw Material**: Positive. Indonesia plans to reduce nickel ore production in 2026, and the nickel ore premium in Indonesia is firm. The import of nickel ore in the Philippines has decreased, and the domestic port inventory has decreased [195] - **Smelting**: Neutral. The production of pure nickel at the end of the year has slightly decreased, the price of nickel iron has slightly rebounded, and the production of nickel sulfate has remained stable [195] - **Demand**: Neutral. The demand for stainless steel is still weak, and the procurement demand for nickel sulfate in the new energy sector is expected to weaken [195] - **Inventory**: Slightly negative. The domestic inventory has slightly decreased but remains at a high level [195] - **Investment View**: Bullish. The nickel price may run strongly in the short - term, and the stainless steel futures may fluctuate strongly in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the changes in positions, macro news, and Indonesian policies [195] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on a short - term and low - price basis; do not conduct arbitrage; enterprises can conduct short - selling hedging when the price is high [195]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report's industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - Supply is neutral - bullish, with attention on weather. Southeast Asian rainstorms may cause减产, and dry conditions in South America are unfavorable for new - season soybean yields. Domestic soybean oil mills are operating normally with sufficient supply for now, while domestic rapeseed is in short supply and awaits imports [3]. - Demand is under observation. Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel quota is close to B40 but fails to reach B50, indicating implementation difficulties. The US biodiesel RVO has a significant impact on international oil and fat supply - demand, but its release time is uncertain. Domestic soybean oil consumption is stable with export support [3]. - Regarding inventory, palm oil is under observation as Malaysia's palm oil inventory is high, with the year - end carry - over inventory expected to reach 3 million tons, pressuring the market. Domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing and will be tight in Q1, and rapeseed oil is also gradually reducing inventory due to supply shortages [3]. - Macroeconomic and policy factors are bullish. Indonesia's B50 policy has funding issues and an uncertain implementation time. The US biodiesel policy's general direction is unchanged but specific policies are yet to be implemented. Policy adjustments such as delayed soybean entry and delayed Australian rapeseed commercial pressing have a short - term negative impact on the oil and fat supply rhythm [3]. - Investment view: Wait for buying opportunities in palm oil. MPOB's December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but it will reverse later due to seasonal production cuts, B50 policy, and US biodiesel. Short - term rallies in rapeseed oil are due to trader pick - ups and blocked rapeseed imports, but it will face pressure from global rapeseed bumper harvests after trade flows are restored [3]. - Trading strategy: For arbitrage, lightly allocate P5 - 9 positive spreads; for single - side trading, short rapeseed oil [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 2.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Analyze supply from aspects like international weather impacts on production and domestic supply status, demand from biodiesel policies and domestic consumption, inventory from palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil inventory levels, and macro - policy from biodiesel policies and import - related policies. Provide investment views and trading strategies based on these analyses [3]. 2.2 Market Review - Present the closing prices of major oil and fat contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as price differences between different contracts and spot price differences between different oils [5][9][14]. 2.3 Oil and Fat Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Southeast Asian Weather**: Show data on precipitation, temperature, and precipitation anomalies in Southeast Asia, including past, present, and future forecasts [17][19][21]. - **Indonesian Monthly Supply - Demand**: Display data on Indonesian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory [30][34][35]. - **Malaysian Monthly Supply - Demand**: Provide data on Malaysian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory [36][41]. - **Indian Monthly Imports and International Soybean - Palm Oil Price Differences**: Present Indian import volumes of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, and the price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil [42][46]. - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand**: Include data on China's palm oil import volume, daily trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost, and import profit [48][52]. - **Weather and Soybean Production Situation**: Show data on soybean planting progress, temperature, and precipitation in Brazil and Argentina [59][62][68]. - **US and Brazilian Export Situations**: Provide data on US soybean export sales volume, export volume, Brazilian soybean monthly export volume, and CNF premium [73][77]. - **Domestic Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation**: Include data on China's soybean weekly arrival volume, soybean oil production volume, daily trading volume, and inventory [87]. - **Origin Rapeseed Export and Domestic Arrival Situation**: Show data on rapeseed FOB prices, Canadian rapeseed export volume, rapeseed oil export volume, import crushing profit, domestic expected arrival volume, and rapeseed oil arrival volume [88][90]. - **Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation**: Provide data on China's rapeseed weekly crushing volume, rapeseed oil production volume, pick - up volume, and inventory [95][98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of asphalt is "oscillation", and the trading strategy suggests "oscillation" for single - side trading and "none" for arbitrage [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, asphalt supply showed an increasing trend with both domestic production and imports contributing. Next period, supply may contract slightly due to some refineries' production conversion and planned maintenance. Demand presented a north - south differentiation pattern with overall rigid demand support but uneven intensity. New snow and rain may suppress future demand. Inventory showed a pattern of "factory inventory destocking and social inventory accumulation", and the overall pressure is expected to rise slightly. Cost is mainly driven by the raw material end, and the support is expected to continue but may be affected by market supply - demand games [4] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Price - The report presents the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in regions such as East China, South China, North China, and Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [6][7][8] 3.2 Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - It shows the historical data of asphalt cracking spread (BU - (SC*6.35)), asphalt - coking material spread from 2021 to 2025, and the basis of asphalt in major regions from 2024 to 2025 [12][13][17] 3.3 Supply - **Scheduled Production Expectation**: It shows the monthly scheduled production and output of asphalt in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 10, as well as the output of asphalt in regions like North China, South China, Shandong, and East China from 2021 to 2025 [20][24][27] - **Capacity Utilization**: It presents the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, and South China from 2021 to 2025 [36][38][41] - **Maintenance Loss Volume**: It shows the weekly and monthly maintenance loss volumes of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [43] 3.4 Cost and Profit - It shows the production gross profit of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025, the price, premium, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [46][50][51] 3.5 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows the factory inventory and inventory rate of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [55][58] - **Social Inventory**: It shows the social inventory of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [61] 3.6 Demand - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the shipment volumes of asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [64] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: It shows the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025, as well as the operating rates of modified asphalt in different regions from 2022 to 2025 [66][70][73]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of natural rubber is "oscillating" [4] Core Viewpoints - Market risk preference has rebounded, leading to a strong rebound in rubber prices. Despite a generally weak fundamental situation, positive sentiment in the commodity market and increased risk - taking by funds have contributed to this upward movement [9] - Currently, raw material prices provide strong support, mid - stream inventories are increasing, short - term downstream demand may weaken, the futures - spot price difference has re - expanded to the same level as the same period, and short - term sentiment in the commodity market is positive. Therefore, rubber is expected to maintain a strong oscillating performance [4] Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bullish. In China, Yunnan has stopped tapping, and Hainan is mostly in a state of reduced tapping. In Thailand, the overall weather is normal, and the supply in the southern region is increasing. In Vietnam, the supply is stable, and raw material prices are firm [3] - **Demand**: It is bearish. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises decreased, while that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased slightly. Next week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises may still decline [3] - **Inventory**: It is bearish. As of December 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory increased, and as of December 26, the RU warehouse receipt inventory on the SHFE increased, while the 20 - rubber warehouse receipt inventory decreased [3] - **Basis/Spread**: It is neutral. The RU - mixed spread and the RU - NR spread have both widened [3] - **Profit**: It is neutral. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber has narrowed, while that of domestic concentrated latex in Hainan has expanded [3] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The current absolute price is at a moderately high level, and the overall valuation is at a medium level [3] - **Weather etc.**: It is bullish. Recently, the overall performance of commodities has been positive, and the market's bullish sentiment has increased. Next week, rainfall in southern Thailand is expected to increase, which may disrupt supply in the short term [3] - **Investment View**: Rubber is expected to oscillate. The trading strategy is to "buy on dips" for single - side trading and "go long on NR and short on RU" for arbitrage [4][5] 2. Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: This week, rubber rebounded strongly. As of December 26, the RU main contract closed at 15,780 yuan/ton, up 590 yuan/ton (+3.88%) for the week, and the 20 - rubber main contract closed at 12,755 yuan/ton, up 395 yuan/ton (+3.20%) for the week [9] - **Spot Market**: Spot prices rebounded and rose [12] - **Positions on the Disk**: Both RU and NR positions increased [26] - **Spreads on the Disk**: The RU - NR spread widened, and the RU2601 - RU2605 spread narrowed [33] 3. Rubber Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **产区Weather**: The weather in the Thai production area is normal [40] - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Glue prices declined, while cup - lump prices remained stable [50] - **Main Producing Countries' Output**: In November, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 1,026 million tons (-0.24%) [62] - **Main Producing Countries' Exports**: In the first 11 months, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 8.84 million tons (+0.73%) [75] - **China's Imports**: From January to November, China imported 5.8716 million tons of natural rubber (+16.98%). In November, the import volume increased significantly [85][92][99] - **Mid - stream Inventory**: China's social inventory continued to increase. As of December 21, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber was 1.182 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons or 2.5% from the previous period [101][109] - **Downstream Tire Demand**: The operating rate of full - steel tires declined, while that of semi - steel tires rebounded. Next week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises may still decline [110][116] - **Downstream Tire Inventory**: The available inventory days of tires in Shandong decreased [117] - **Automobiles and Heavy Trucks**: In November, the growth rate of automobile sales narrowed, while the sales of heavy trucks increased significantly year - on - year [121][131] - **Tire Exports**: From January to November, tire exports were 8.83 million tons (+3.7%), and the cumulative growth rate narrowed [132][139] - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber and latex both rebounded [141] - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: The futures - spot price difference of the mixed rubber widened [152]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate are all "oscillating" [7][8][82] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate in the new energy industry are all expected to oscillate. Industrial silicon has increasing supply, decreasing demand, and fluctuating inventory; polysilicon has a speculative sentiment, and its supply and demand will both decrease in December, but the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve; lithium carbonate has strong terminal demand, and the industrial chain is in a game over long - term contract prices, with short - term price increases and risks of chasing high prices [7][8][82] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon (SI) - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production is 81,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.68%, and the number of operating furnaces is 243, a week - on - week increase of 3. The production in Xinjiang has increased, while that in Yunnan and Sichuan has decreased. The production in November was 401,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.74%; the planned production in December is 401,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.18% and a year - on - year increase of 20.78% [7] - **Demand Side**: For polysilicon, the weekly production is 26,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.14%, and the factory inventory is 308,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.65%. For organic silicon, the DMC weekly production is 45,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.42% [7] - **Inventory Side**: The explicit inventory is 503,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.78%, and the industry inventory is 456,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30%. However, the warehouse receipt inventory is 47,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.52% [7] - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9,091 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 0.52%, and the gross profit per ton is - 92 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton [7] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The price is expected to oscillate. The supply center is moving to the northwest, the demand is weak, and the inventory is fluctuating [7] 3.2 Polysilicon (PS) - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production is 26,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.14%. The production in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan is 9,500 tons, 8,300 tons, 400 tons, and 1,200 tons respectively. The production in November was 114,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.48% and a year - on - year increase of 2.69%; the planned production in December is 113,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.96% and a year - on - year increase of 16.65% [8] - **Demand Side**: The weekly production of silicon wafers is 10.50GW, a week - on - week decrease of 0.32%. The new installed capacity in November 2025 was 22.02GW, a year - on - year decrease of 11.92% and a month - on - month increase of 74.76% [8] - **Inventory Side**: The factory inventory is 308,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.65%, and the registered warehouse receipts are 11,910 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.47% [8] - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 42,322 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 0.55%, and the gross profit per ton is 7,889 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 126 yuan [8] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The price is expected to oscillate. Although the supply and demand will both decrease in December, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, but there is a speculative sentiment in the short term [8] 3.3 Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply Side**: The national weekly production is 22,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.53%. The production in November was 95,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.35% and a year - on - year increase of 49.00%; the planned production in December is about 98,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.00% and a year - on - year increase of 40.97% [82] - **Import Side**: In November, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 22,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.64% and a year - on - year increase of 14.66%. The import volume of lithium concentrate was 677,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.59% and a year - on - year increase of 40.42% [82] - **Material Demand**: The weekly production of lithium iron phosphate is 101,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.08%, and the weekly production of ternary materials is 19,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.25% [82] - **Terminal Demand**: In November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative bidding for energy storage was 201.5GWh, a year - on - year increase of 44%, and the cumulative winning bids were 153.2GWh, a year - on - year increase of 170.67% [82] - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 10,980 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.59%, and the lithium salt factory inventory is 17,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.32% [82] - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium mica for external ore purchase is 109,946 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10.18%, and the production profit is - 9,014 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2,986 yuan/ton [82] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The price is expected to oscillate. The terminal demand is strong, but the price has risen rapidly in the short term, and there is a risk of chasing high prices [82]

Report Overview - Report Title: ITG Guomao Futures Data Daily - Report Date: December 29, 2025 - Researcher: Huang Xianglan - Investment Consultation Number: Z0021658 - Qualification Number: F03110419 1. Core Viewpoints - The domestic rumor of customs control on soybean imports is beneficial for near - month contracts and positive spreads. Attention should be paid to customs policy dynamics [8]. - US soybean exports are weak, and there is no obvious hype driver in South American weather. Brazilian premiums are expected to face pressure later. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, with an overall expectation of near - strong and far - weak [8]. - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect far - month supply [7][8]. - The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased, but recent downstream transactions are normal, and提货 performance is good [8]. 2. Industry Data Summaries 2.1 Basis Data - For 43% soybean meal spot basis on December 26, 2025: Dalian was 390 with a rise of 10; in different regions such as Rizhao (330, +10), Tianjin (350, +10), Zhangjiagang (340, - 500), Dongguan (290, - 10), Zhanjiang (310, - 30), and Fangcheng (310, - 10) [4]. - The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 76, down 32 [4]. 2.2 Spread Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in the factory was 300, and the spot spread in the market was 399, down 9; the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 559, up 12 [5]. - The RM1 - 5 spread was 68, down 16; the M3 - M5 spread and M1 - RM1 spread data were also presented [4][5]. 2.3 Supply - related Data - According to CONAB, the predicted output of the 25/26 Brazilian new crop is 177.6 million tons. As of December 5, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 90.3% [7]. - According to BAGE, as of December 3, the Argentine soybean sowing progress was 4.7% [7]. - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels for the same period, and the de - stocking of soybean meal is slow. The现货 supply pressure is still large, and it is expected to accelerate de - stocking from December to January [8]. 2.4 Demand - related Data - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand, but current breeding profits are in the red [7][8]. - The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased, and recent downstream transactions are normal, with good提货 performance [8]. 2.5 Other Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9815, with no change. The Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 150 cents per bushel, and the domestic import soybean spot crushing profit was 90 yuan per ton [5]. - The domestic soybean auction had a high premium, and attention should be paid to subsequent auction situations [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities rebounded significantly, with most varieties seeing an uptick, including both industrial and agricultural product indices. The reasons include the poor US employment data and controllable inflation data, which may give the Federal Reserve a basis to continue cutting interest rates in the first half of 2026, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite; the domestic economic situation is weak with strong supply and weak demand, and the black - series performed worse than other sectors [3]. - Considering the latest changes in economic growth momentum and the relatively high base in the same period last year, it is expected that the economic operation in the first quarter of 2026 will still face certain downward pressure. Therefore, monetary policy is expected to end the observation period and enter the active stage to stabilize the economic operation in the first quarter of 2026 [3]. - In the short term, market sentiment has improved, and commodities have rebounded. This is due to the possible Fed rate - cuts in the first half of 2026, positive domestic policy tones after important meetings, and geopolitical factors such as the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and potential US actions against Venezuela, which will cause fluctuations in energy prices and drive a phased rebound in energy prices [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **GDP**: In the third quarter, the US real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate was 4.3%, higher than the expected 3.3% and the previous value of 3.8%, reaching the fastest growth rate in two years. The PCE price index annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate was 2.9%, in line with expectations but maintaining a high level. The core driving factor for the strong growth in the third quarter was the better - than - expected performance on the consumption side. However, due to factors such as the previous federal government "shutdown", the economic growth in the fourth quarter is expected to slow down significantly, and the annual growth rate in 2025 is expected to be 2% or lower [3]. - **Employment Data**: In November, the number of non - farm payrolls increased by 64,000, better than the market expectation of 50,000. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, higher than 4.4% in September and slightly higher than the expected 4.5%, reaching a new high since September 2021. If the unemployment rate further rises to 4.7% in December, it may trigger the "Sam Rule" recession indicator again [3]. - **Inflation Data**: The US inflation rate in November was significantly lower than market expectations, showing a cooling trend. The CPI in November was 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1%, and the core CPI year - on - year dropped to 2.6%, also lower than the expected 3%. The poor employment data and controllable inflation data may give the Federal Reserve a basis to continue cutting interest rates in the first half of 2026 [3]. - **Other Regions**: In the eurozone, the PMI in December showed certain changes compared with November. In Japan, the export and import data and CPI data in November also had corresponding performance [18][22]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **Industrial Enterprise Profits**: According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on December 27, 2025, China's industrial enterprise profit data in November showed the characteristics of "slight cumulative increase, single - month pressure, and structural differentiation". In November, the revenue of industrial enterprises above the designated size was stable, but profits declined. The year - on - year decline in operating income narrowed, but the year - on - year decline in profits widened. The overall profitability still lacks effective support, and weak domestic demand remains a drag on corporate profitability [3]. - **LPR**: On December 22, 2025, the central bank issued a credit repair policy and kept the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR unchanged. The credit repair policy can accurately distinguish overdue types and optimize the allocation of credit resources, and the stability of LPR helps maintain internal and external balance. Considering the economic situation, it is expected that the monetary policy will enter the active stage to stabilize the economic operation in the first quarter of 2026 [3]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial开工率**: The report tracks the开工率 of the polyester industry chain and the blast furnace开工率. For example, on December 26, the开工 rate of PTA in the polyester industry chain was 72%, and the开工 rate of POY was 86% [38]. - **Consumer - related Data**: It also tracks data such as the wholesale and retail data of manufacturers and the inventory data of some products. For example, on December 25, certain data showed specific percentage changes [45]. - **Commodity Price Data**: The report monitors the prices of some commodities, such as the average wholesale prices of vegetables, pork, and fruits, as well as the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, both gold and silver prices rose, hitting new all - time highs. Silver showed particularly strong performance, with a weekly increase of over 18% and a cumulative increase of over 170% this year. The price increase was supported by macro - level factors, fundamental factors, and changes in the price - spread structure [3]. - In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to remain strong, but there are signs of a "short squeeze" in the silver market, so caution is needed regarding the risk of a phased adjustment due to the rapid price increase, especially during the New Year's Day holiday in China this week. It is recommended that existing long positions be gradually closed for profit, and those not yet in the market should wait and see [5]. - In the long term, the underlying logic of the precious metal bull market remains solid. Factors such as the continuous rise in the US federal government debt, the Fed still in a rate - cut cycle, complex global geopolitical situations, and continued gold purchases by global central banks will support the upward movement of the gold price center [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情及基本面指标跟踪 (Market and Fundamental Indicator Tracking) 3.1.1 Gold and Silver Prices and Gold - Silver Ratio - Gold prices rose steadily, with the London spot gold at $4532.505 per ounce, up 4.41% from the previous week. The Shanghai gold futures main contract was at 1016.30 yuan per gram, up 3.71% [4]. - Silver prices soared, with the London spot silver at $79.3290 per ounce, up 18.31% from the previous week. The Shanghai silver futures main contract was at 18319 yuan per kilogram, up 19.14% [4]. - The domestic and foreign gold - silver ratios dropped to near 53 and 57 respectively, reaching the lowest levels since 2013, indicating that silver is no longer undervalued compared to gold [3]. 3.1.2 Price - Spread between Futures and Spot - For gold, the basis (TD - futures) was - 6.17 yuan per gram, with a weekly change rate of 14.26%. The internal - external price difference was - 5.91 yuan per gram, with a weekly change rate of 70.32% [4]. - For silver, the basis (TD - futures) was 181 yuan per kilogram, with a weekly change rate of - 796.15%. The internal - external price difference was - 439 yuan per kilogram, with a weekly change rate of - 65.89% [4]. 3.1.3 ETF and CFTC Positions - Gold SPDR - ETF holdings increased by 18.59 tons to 1071.13 tons, a weekly increase of 1.77%. COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions increased by 10092 contracts to 233978 contracts, a weekly increase of 4.51% [4]. - Silver SLV - ETF holdings increased by 324 tons to 16391 tons, a weekly increase of 2.02%. COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions decreased by 8357 contracts to 36352 contracts, a weekly decrease of 18.69% [4]. 3.1.4 Inventory Data - SHFE gold inventory increased by 5.98 tons to 97.692 tons, a weekly increase of 6.52%. COMEX gold inventory increased by 5.76 tons to 1125.67 tons, a weekly increase of 0.51% [4]. - SHFE silver inventory decreased by 80.20 tons to 819 tons, a weekly decrease of 8.92%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 124.39 tons to 13988 tons, a weekly decrease of 0.88%. SGE silver inventory increased by 117.71 tons to 832 tons, a weekly increase of 16.48% [4]. 3.2主要宏观指标跟踪 (Tracking of Major Macroeconomic Indicators) 3.2.1 Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The US dollar index was at 98.0341, down 0.69% from the previous week. The US dollar against the offshore RMB was at 7.0042, down 0.42% [4]. - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was at 3.4749%, down 0.06% from the previous week. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was at 4.1277%, down 0.23% [4]. 3.2.2 Economic Data - The US third - quarter GDP growth was strong, and the consumer confidence index rebounded for the first time in five months [61]. - The US November non - farm payrolls were higher than expected, and the unemployment rate rebounded. Job vacancies increased, and the labor participation rate increased. Wage growth slowed down both month - on - month and year - on - year [66]. - Inflation in the US was relatively controllable. Core commodity inflation rebounded, while core service inflation declined. Consumer inflation expectations rose significantly [68][71]. 3.2.3 Eurozone Economic Data - The Eurozone GDP bottomed out and rebounded. The manufacturing and service PMIs in the Eurozone declined, and inflation data in the Eurozone and the UK were also presented [77][78]. 3.2.4 Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for 13 consecutive months. As of the end of November, China's gold reserves reached 74.12 million ounces (about 2305.39 tons), an increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons) from the previous month [85]. - Global central banks still maintained net gold purchases. In the first three quarters of 2025, global central banks and other institutions net - purchased about 633.6 tons of gold, a year - on - year decrease of about 12.1%. However, the gold - purchasing demand is expected to remain strong in the future [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both PE and PP is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term market has no obvious driving force and is expected to move in a range [2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PE, the supply is neutral, demand is bearish, inventory is bullish, basis is neutral, profit is bearish, valuation is bullish, and macro - policy is neutral. The short - term market is expected to oscillate [2] - For PP, the supply is bullish, demand is bearish, inventory is bullish, basis is neutral, profit is neutral, valuation is neutral, and macro - policy is neutral. The short - term market is expected to oscillate [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PE Fundamental Changes - **Supply**: This week, China's PE production was 67.22 tons, a 1.09% decrease from last week. The capacity utilization rate was 84.11%, a 0.06 - percentage - point increase. New maintenance at Dushanzi Petrochemical was offset by restarts of some existing plants [2] - **Demand**: The average downstream product start - up rate decreased. In November, imports were 106.22 tons, a 9.93% year - on - year decrease and a 5.04% month - on - month increase, due to delayed shipments in October and more Iranian resources arriving in November [2] - **Inventory**: The sample inventory of Chinese PE producers was 45.86 tons, a 5.99% decrease from the previous period. Producers cut prices to reduce inventory, and downstream factories replenished at low prices [2] - **Basis**: The current main - contract basis is around 173, with the futures price at a discount [2] - **Profit**: Oil - and methanol - based production costs increased, while coal - and ethane - based costs decreased. The overall profit situation is bearish [2] - **Valuation**: The spot price is relatively low, and the main contract is at a discount [2] PP Fundamental Changes - **Supply**: This week, domestic PP production was 79.37 tons, a 3.18% decrease from last week but a 10.56% increase from the same period last year. The average capacity utilization rate was 76.87%, a 2.53% decrease [3] - **Demand**: The average start - up rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24%. Weak cost support and pessimistic market sentiment among industry players [3] - **Inventory**: Producer inventory decreased by 0.45 tons (0.84%), port inventory increased by 0.12 tons (1.78%), and trader inventory decreased by 1.11 tons (5.62%) [3] - **Basis**: The current main - contract basis is around - 82, with the futures price at a premium [3] - **Profit**: Profits from some production methods improved, while others declined. The average weekly import profit was - 328.98 yuan/ton, a 1.49% decrease from last week [3] - **Valuation**: The spot price is relatively low, and the main contract is at a premium [3] Main Weekly Data Changes - **Prices**: PP futures price increased by 1.27%, PE futures price increased by 2.29%, LLDPE CFR decreased by 2.95% [4] - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: PP production increased by 4.54%, PE production decreased by 1.09%, PP start - up rate increased by 1.87%, PE start - up rate decreased by 1.46% [4] - **Inventory**: PP factory inventory decreased by 4.70%, PE social inventory increased by 1.97% [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The recent driving force is insufficient, and the medium - and long - term pressure expectation still exists. At the end of the year and the beginning of the new year, policies are mainly favorable, including economic and industrial policies. Fundamentally, there is support for glass and soda ash. For glass, demand maintains resilience and supply remains stable. For soda ash, supply and demand are stable. The recommended strategy is mainly inter - month reverse arbitrage [41]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: Production decreases slightly. The daily output of national float glass this week is 154,500 tons, a decrease of 0.39% compared to the 18th. The industry's start - up rate is 73.65%, a decrease of 0.34 percentage points compared to the 18th, and the capacity utilization rate is 77.26%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the 18th. One production line was shut down for cold repair this week, and a previously ignited production line started producing glass, resulting in a downward trend in weekly production [4]. - Demand: There is support, but the terminal demand support is limited. The current market is mainly driven by rigid demand, and the actual support for overall production and sales is relatively limited [4]. - Inventory: Inventory fluctuates. The enterprise inventory is 58.623 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 0.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.63%. The inventory days are 26.5 days, the same as the previous period [4]. - Basis/Spread: The basis fluctuates weakly this week, and the 01 - 05 spread fluctuates [4]. - Valuation: Valuation is low [4]. - Macro and Policy: There are mainly policy benefits at the end of the year and the beginning of the new year [4]. - Investment View: The price fluctuates recently, and supply and demand are supported [4]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: None; Arbitrage: Mainly reverse arbitrage. Risk concerns: Daily melting volume, production and sales, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [4]. Soda Ash - Supply: Supply decreases. This week, the soda ash output is 711,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,600 tons, a decline of 1.32%. Next week, the supply is expected to increase, but it is difficult to have a large - scale increase at the end of the year and the beginning of the new year [5]. - Demand: The short - term direct demand weakens marginally. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass remains stable, and the daily melting volume of float glass decreases [5]. - Inventory: Inventory is depleted. The manufacturer's total inventory is 1.4385 million tons, a decrease of 60,800 tons compared to last Thursday, a decline of 4.06% [5]. - Basis/Spread: The basis fluctuates weakly this week, and the 01 - 05 spread fluctuates [5]. - Valuation: Valuation is low [5]. - Macro and Policy: There are mainly policy benefits at the end of the year and the beginning of the new year [5]. - Investment View: Supply and demand are supported in the short term, and the valuation is low [5]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: None; Arbitrage: Mainly reverse arbitrage. Risk concerns: Soda ash plant production, glass production and sales, and domestic and overseas macro - policy disturbances [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review Glass - The price is under pressure this week. The main contract closes at 924 (- 20), and the Shahe spot price is 1057 (- 10) [7]. Soda Ash - The price fluctuates this week. The main contract closes at 1200 (+ 24), and the Shahe spot price is 1135 (+ 5) [13]. Spread/Basis - For soda ash, the 05 - 09 spread fluctuates, and the basis fluctuates downward. For glass, the 05 - 09 spread fluctuates, and the basis fluctuates downward [23]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Fundamental Data Glass Supply - Production decreases slightly. The daily output of national float glass this week is 154,500 tons, a decrease of 0.39% compared to the 18th. The industry's start - up rate is 73.65%, a decrease of 0.34 percentage points compared to the 18th, and the capacity utilization rate is 77.26%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the 18th. The production profit of glass decreases [25][26]. Glass Demand - Downstream deep - processing orders are average. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 9.7 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. The real - estate's mid - and back - end completion data is poor. The inventory fluctuates [29][30]. Soda Ash Supply - Supply decreases. This week, the soda ash output is 711,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,600 tons, a decline of 1.32%. The profit of soda ash plants fluctuates [33][37]. Soda Ash Demand - Demand is weak. The short - term direct demand weakens marginally. The inventory is depleted [38].