Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: None - **Bearish**: Palm oil, Rapeseed oil, Soybean meal, Paper pulp - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Polysilicon, Lithium carbonate, Iron ore, Manganese silicon, Soda ash, Coking coal, Coke, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, Natural rubber, Synthetic rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short - fiber, Styrene, Urea, PE, PP, PVC, Caustic soda, PG, Container shipping European line Core Views - Short - term, market sentiment may shift from optimism to caution, and the stock index may enter an oscillating phase to accumulate momentum for the next upward movement, with strong support below due to policy and liquidity [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress the upside [1]. - Precious metals are under short - term pressure due to tight dollar liquidity [1]. - Copper price is expected to have limited downside, while aluminum price oscillates, and alumina has a weak fundamental situation [1]. - Zinc price is expected to stay high, but chasing high should be cautious; nickel and stainless - steel prices are affected by macro factors and have different trends [1]. - Tin has long - term buying opportunities at low prices; polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and other commodities have their own oscillating or directional trends based on supply - demand and macro factors [1]. - Some agricultural products like palm oil, rapeseed oil, etc. face bearish factors, while others like sugar and cotton have complex supply - demand situations [1]. - Energy - chemical products' prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and cost, showing various trends [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - Short - term, with the release of positive factors, the stock index may oscillate to accumulate momentum for the next upward movement, and there is strong support below due to policy and liquidity [1]. Treasury Bond - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress the upside [1]. Gold - Precious metals are under short - term pressure due to tight dollar liquidity [1]. Copper - Macro - positive sentiment is digested, and copper price may decline, but the downside is limited [1]. Aluminum - Recent industrial drivers are limited, and with the digestion of macro - positives, aluminum price oscillates [1]. Alumina - Domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, with both production and inventory increasing, and the fundamental situation is weak, putting pressure on the spot price [1]. Zinc - Market risk aversion rises, LME zinc inventory is decreasing, and zinc price is strong, but domestic over - supply requires caution when chasing high [1]. Nickel - Short - term, nickel price may be dominated by macro factors and oscillate weakly, with high inventory pressure; long - term, primary nickel over - supply persists [1]. Stainless Steel - Macro sentiment weakens, and stainless - steel futures are under pressure; short - term operations are recommended, and opportunities for selling hedges at high prices should be noted [1]. Tin - Long - term, there are opportunities to go long at low prices due to the unrepaired raw - material end and good new - quality demand expectations [1]. Polysilicon - Northwest production capacity is recovering, production in November is decreasing, and there are expectations of capacity reduction and increased terminal installation [1]. Lithium Carbonate - There are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season, and attention should be paid to upward pressure after the realization of macro sentiment [1]. Iron Ore - Near - month production is restricted, and far - month has upward potential [1]. Manganese Silicon - Direct demand is good, but high supply and inventory pressure limit price rebound [1]. Soda Ash - It follows glass, but supply - demand is average, and there is strong upward resistance [1]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal is testing support, and coke has a complex situation; short - term, single - side operations should be observed, and long - term, low - buying is recommended [1]. Palm Oil - Short - term, it faces seasonal production increase and weak exports; from November, there may be a phased rebound if exports improve [1]. Rapeseed Oil - Sino - Canadian relations and Canadian harvest put pressure on the price [1]. Cotton - Uncertainty in cotton demand exists due to the contradiction between Xinjiang's capacity expansion and reduced spinning profit; the downside is limited, but new - crop base and price may be under pressure [1]. Sugar - Short - term, there is seasonal upward momentum, but new - sugar listing may limit the rebound space [1]. Corn - Futures and spot face selling pressure, and the price may oscillate and bottom out [1]. Soybean Meal - Domestic soybean purchase and processing profit is poor, and the price may rebound to repair the profit, but supply expectations limit the rebound height [1]. Paper Pulp - The 11 - contract has pressure, and an 11 - 1 reverse spread is recommended [1]. Log - The fundamental situation has declined, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Live Pig - Short - term, futures follow the spot and turn weak [1]. Crude Oil and Fuel Oil - OPEC+ continues to increase production slightly, geopolitical hype cools down, and market sentiment eases [1]. Asphalt - Short - term supply - demand is not prominent, and the "14th Five - Year Plan" demand may be false; supply is sufficient, and profit is high [1]. Natural Rubber - Supported by raw - material cost, mid - stream inventory decreases, and the market atmosphere is positive [1]. Synthetic Rubber - Cost support weakens, supply is loose, and the price is adjusted downwards [1]. PTA and Short - fiber - The "anti - involution" policy drives the price up, and short - fiber follows the cost [1]. Ethylene Glycol - It follows the decline of crude oil, but cost support strengthens, and polyester demand is stable [1]. Styrene - Asian benzene price is weak, and styrene profit declines, with more device overhauls [1]. Urea - Export is weak, and there is cost support [1]. PE and PP - Supply pressure is high, and downstream improvement is less than expected [1]. PVC - Supply pressure is large, and cost support strengthens [1]. Caustic Soda - Production plans increase, over - concentration of overhauls decreases, and there is a risk of short - squeeze [1]. PG - International oil and gas supply is loose, and domestic spot is stable [1]. Container Shipping European Line - Macro - positive sentiment is digested, and November's shipping capacity supply is relatively loose [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On Tuesday (November 4), most domestic commodities declined, with industrial products mostly falling and agricultural products mostly weakening [1]. - The macro - positive expectations for black commodities have ended, and steel prices may face a correction risk as they return to the off - season fundamentals [1]. - Base metals are under pressure from the rebound of the US dollar index, and copper may enter a short - term adjustment. The price of lithium carbonate is volatile and affected by enterprise news [1]. - For energy and chemical products, although international oil prices only slightly rose, there may be short - term rebound momentum due to OPEC+'s decision to pause production increase in the first quarter of next year [1]. - In the case of oilseeds and oils, the price trends vary among different varieties, with some affected by macro news, supply - demand, and cost factors [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Black Commodities - Macro利好预期结束，商品整体情绪降温，钢材需求持续性不明且幅度有限，螺纹热卷期货四连阴回吐上周涨幅 [1]. - 上周五大钢材品种库存环比降2.64%至1513.76万吨，但较去年同期增22.58%，产量环比增1.15%，表观需求环比增2.65%至916.4万吨创近半年高位 [1]. - 近期钢材供需结构转好，但宏观扰动结束，预计回归淡季基本面，价格有回调风险 [1]. Base Metals - 美联储官员表态分歧，缺乏关键数据指引，美元指数反弹压制金属市场 [1]. - 海外矿山中断，国内社库反弹，伦铜短期在1000美金上方压力大，随降息预期回落短期将调整 [1]. - 碳酸锂前期因需求上涨，近期复产预期提升，价格受消息影响波动大，需关注企业动态 [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - 欧美对俄石油制裁和地缘事件的风险溢价未能推动油价上行，国际油价仅微幅收涨，内盘原油系多数走弱 [1]. - 短期国际原油市场交易逻辑未变，利好是美国制裁政策和地缘局势不确定，利空是OPEC+增产立场及全球经济和需求欠佳 [1]. - OPEC+12月继续增产，但明年一季度暂停增产超市场预期，国际油价短期或有反弹动能 [1]. Oilseeds and Oils - 菜粕近月合约延续强势但上涨动能有限，部分远月合约回落；豆粕期货全线回落，观望美豆需求 [1]. - 棕榈油期货受马棕产量及库存增长预期打压维持弱势；豆油供强需弱但成本有支撑，维持震荡调整 [1]. - 菜油小幅收涨，短期国内菜油进入入库期，跟随油脂市场波动 [1]. Index Performance - The overall Guomao Commodity Index decreased by 0.91% from November 3rd to November 4th [1]. - The daily commodity index decreased by 1.03% [1]. - The Guomao Black Commodity Index decreased by 1.13% [1]. - The other commodity index increased by 0.27% [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The pattern of both supply and demand reduction in the polysilicon production schedule for November, with a situation of "weak reality and strong expectation", remains unchanged. The previously rumored capacity storage method has been confirmed for the first time, boosting market sentiment. The "involution" measures will take another step, and the progress of capacity clearance continues. In the short term, prices may show a strong trend [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Price - PS2511 closed at 55,000 with a decline of 4.14%. PS2512 closed at 53,750 with a decline of 4.12%. PS2601 closed at 53,715 with a decline of 4.19%. PS2602 closed at 53,685 with a decline of 4.19% [1] - The price difference between PS2511 - PS2512 is -2,175 with an increase of 80. The price difference between PS2512 - PS2601 is 35 with an increase of 40. The price difference between PS2601 - PS2602 is 30 with no change [1] Spot Price - The average price of N - type compact material is 51 with no change. The average price of N - type mixed material is 50.5 [1][2] Basis - The basis between N - type compact material and PS2601 is -2,715 with an increase of 2,350. The basis between N - type mixed material and PS2601 is -3,215 with an increase of 2,350 [2] Inventory - The polysilicon inventory (weekly, in ten thousand tons) is 26.1 with an increase of 0.3. The silicon wafer inventory (weekly, in GW) is 18.93 with an increase of 0.46. The registered warehouse receipts (daily, in tons) is 9,590 with an increase of 490 [2] Newly - installed Capacity - In September 2025, the newly - installed capacity was 9.66 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 53.76% and a month - on - month increase of 31.25%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative installed capacity was 240.27 GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.35% [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View - The cotton market currently has support below and pressure above. There is a continuous supply of new cotton, but yarn mills are actively replenishing their stocks. In the long - term, policies and weather are the key factors. The recommended strategies are to conduct reverse arbitrage on the January - May spread when prices are high and to lay out long positions for distant - month contracts when prices are low [4]. 3. Data Summary Domestic Cotton Futures - CF01 on November 4 was 13535, down 65 (-0.48%) from November 3; CF05 was 13555, down 60 (-0.44%); CF01 - 05 was -20, down 5 from the previous day [3]. Domestic Cotton Spot - In Xinjiang, the price on November 4 was 14640, down 16 (-0.11%); in Henan, it was 14890, down 18 (-0.12%); in Shandong, it was 14873, down 19 (-0.13%); Xinjiang - main continuous basis was 1105, up 49 [3]. Domestic Yarn Futures and Spot - Domestic yarn futures (CY) on November 4 was 19795, down 125 (-0.63%); domestic yarn spot C32S price index remained unchanged at 20520 [3]. US Cotton Spot - US cotton spot CT was 66 (USD/磅), unchanged; the arrival price was 75.50, up 0.2 (0.27%); 1% quota delivery price was 13209, up 34 (0.26%); sliding - scale duty delivery price was 14098, up 11 (0.08%) [3]. Spread Data - Yarn - cotton spread (futures) was 6260, down 60; yarn - cotton spread (spot) was 889, down 23; the spot internal - external spread was 1664, down 53 [3][4].

Group 1: Report Information - Researcher: Yang Lulin from the Agricultural Products Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [2] - Date: November 5, 2025 [2] - Data Sources: Zhuochuang Information, Steel Union Data [5] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the double-offset paper market have remained stable recently. Weekly production has increased, and inventory has risen slightly. Some paper mills have issued price increase letters, and the implementation of these letters needs to be closely monitored [5]. - In the short term, the positions and trading volume in the futures market are low, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [5]. Group 4: Double-Offset Paper Futures Data - On November 4, 2025, the price of OP2601 was 4,266, a day-on-day decrease of 0.42% compared to November 3. The position of the main contract was 943, a day-on-day increase of 0.11% [3]. Group 5: Spot Price Data Double-Offset Paper - Shandong High-White Swan: 4,675 yuan/ton, with 0.00% day-on-day and week-on-week changes [3]. - Shandong Ben-White Tianyang: 4,475 yuan/ton, with 0.00% day-on-day and week-on-week changes [3]. - Shandong Ben-White Peony: 4,450 yuan/ton, with 0.00% day-on-day and week-on-week changes [3]. - Guangdong High-White Blue Leaf: 4,600 yuan/ton, with 0.00% day-on-day and week-on-week changes [3]. - Beijing High-White Ruixue: 4,725 yuan/ton, with 0.00% day-on-day and week-on-week changes [3]. Coated Paper - Guangdong Chenming Snow Rabbit: 4,650 yuan/ton, with 0.00% day-on-day and week-on-week changes [3]. - Guangdong Huaxia Sun: 4,900 yuan/ton, with 0.00% day-on-day and week-on-week changes [3]. - Guangdong Jindong Dongfan: 5,300 yuan/ton, with 0.00% day-on-day and week-on-week changes [3]. - Shandong Chenming Snow Rabbit: 4,650 yuan/ton, with 0.00% day-on-day and week-on-week changes [3]. - Shandong Sun Tianyang: 4,800 yuan/ton, with 0.00% day-on-day and week-on-week changes [3]. Group 6: Papermaking Raw Material Data - Shandong Broadleaf Goldfish: 5,500 yuan/ton, with 0.00% day-on-day and week-on-week changes [4]. - Shandong Coniferous Silver Star: 4,250 yuan/ton, with 0.00% day-on-day and week-on-week changes [4]. - Shandong Coniferous Russian Needle: 5,100 yuan/ton, with 0.00% day-on-day and week-on-week changes [4]. - Guangdong Broadleaf Goldfish: 4,300 yuan/ton, with 0.00% day-on-day and week-on-week changes [4]. - Shandong Coniferous Moon: 3,700 yuan/ton, with 0.00% day-on-day and week-on-week changes [4]. - Shandong Chemical Mechanical Kunhe: 5,350 yuan/ton, with 0.00% day-on-day and week-on-week changes [4]. Group 7: Double-Offset Paper Supply and Demand Data Production - On September 19, 2025: 20.7 million tons [4]. - On October 24, 2025: 20.3 million tons [4]. - On October 17, 2025: 21 million tons [4]. - On September 26, 2025: 20.87 million tons [4]. - On September 12, 2025: 20.5 million tons [4]. - On September 5, 2025: 19.48 million tons [4]. Capacity Utilization - On September 19, 2025: 53% [4]. - On October 24, 2025: 56.9% [4]. - On October 17, 2025: 55.7% [4]. - On September 26, 2025: 52.93% [4]. - On September 12, 2025: 54% [4]. - On September 5, 2025: 56.69% [4]. Factory Inventory - On September 19, 2025: 131.5 million tons [4]. - On October 24, 2025: 122.7 million tons [4]. - On October 17, 2025: 122.7 million tons [4]. - On September 26, 2025: 130 million tons [4]. - On September 12, 2025: 121 million tons [4]. - On September 5, 2025: 119.6 million tons [4]. Social Inventory - On September 19, 2025: 58 million tons [4]. - On October 24, 2025: 53.2 million tons [4]. - On October 17, 2025: 53.4 million tons [4]. - On September 26, 2025: 54 million tons [4]. - On September 12, 2025: 53.1 million tons [4]. - On September 5, 2025: 53.6 million tons [4]. Production Gross Margin - Chemical Mechanical Pulp-Based: On September 19, 2025, it was 437; on October 24, 2025, it was 512; on October 17, 2025, it was 572; on September 26, 2025, it was 528; on September 12, 2025, it was 541.25; on September 5, 2025, it was 614 [4]. - Broadleaf Pulp-Based: On September 19, 2025, it was 270; on October 24, 2025, it was 329; on October 17, 2025, it was 203; on September 26, 2025, it was 240; on September 12, 2025, it was 264; on September 5, 2025, it was 360 [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The narrative of strong terminal demand continues, the de - stocking of social inventory increases, and the degree of supply - demand mismatch deepens. However, from a fundamental perspective, the hedging pressure from above is gradually released, weakening the upward momentum. The market has begun to show differences (rumors of mine resumption have emerged), and further capital, events, and news are needed to push up the price. Otherwise, the price will remain low [3] 3. Summary by Category Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 81,000 yuan with a rise of 450 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 78,800 yuan with a rise of 450 yuan [1] Lithium Futures Contracts - Lithium carbonate 2511 has a closing price of 80,620 yuan with a decline of 0.67%; lithium carbonate 2512 has a closing price of 82,100 yuan with no change; lithium carbonate 2601 has a closing price of 82,280 yuan with a decline of 0.1%; lithium carbonate 2602 has a closing price of 81,980 yuan with a rise of 0.27%; lithium carbonate 2603 has a closing price of 81,760 yuan with a rise of 0.02% [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li20: 5.5% - 6%) has an average price of 941 yuan with a decline of 3 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) has an average price of 1350 yuan with a decline of 30 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) has an average price of 2150 yuan with a decline of 30 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) has an average price of 7360 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) has an average price of 8770 yuan with a decline of 55 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 36,050 yuan with a rise of 110 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 157,950 yuan with a rise of 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 139,450 yuan with a rise of 150 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 138,150 yuan with a rise of 200 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2200 yuan with no change; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 1280 yuan with a decline of 1050 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 180 yuan with a rise of 1240 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 120 yuan with a rise of 1600 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 127,358 tons with a decline of 3008 tons; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 32,051 tons with a decline of 1630 tons; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 53,288 tons with a decline of 1987 tons; the other inventory (weekly, tons) is 42,020 tons with a rise of 610 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 27,290 tons with a decline of 331 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 80,421 yuan, and the profit is - 557 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 84,985 yuan, and the profit is - 7158 yuan [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [5][6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The easing of Sino - US trade policies has released positive signals, significantly alleviating the suppression of trans - oceanic cargo volume by trade frictions, and the market sentiment has improved the expectations of the European line [6] - The Sino - US trade agreement this week is expected to prompt some US retailers to accelerate short - term imports, but it is unlikely to lead to a significant adjustment of the supply - chain strategy [6] - The EC market is oscillating strongly. In the short term, macro - level positives, capacity control, and multiple rounds of price - support expectations will still support the market. Before the peak - season expectations are falsified, the main contract is likely to maintain a strong oscillation, but the market has already factored in a certain premium [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The current values of SCFI, CCFI, SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe are 1551, 1021, 2647, 1208, 3438, and 1344 respectively, with increases of 10.49%, 2.89%, 22.94%, 9.12%, 13.39%, and 7.87% compared to the previous values. The current value of SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1208, a decrease of 7.93%, and the current value of SCFI - Mediterranean is 1983, an increase of 13.57% [5] - **Contracts**: The current values of EC2506, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 are 1400.8, 1483.5, 1139.3, 1851.7, 1592.2, and 1184.4 respectively, with increases of 1.54%, 0.84%, 0.64%, 2.64%, 2.48%, and 2.01% [5] - **Positions**: The current positions of EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 are 1490, 1342, 1266, 29320, 18781, and 14507 respectively, with changes of - 31, - 10, - 14, - 2045, 326, and - 403 [5] - **Monthly Spreads**: The current values of the 12 - 02, 12 - 04, and 02 - 04 monthly spreads are 259.5, 667.3, and 407.8 respectively, with increases of 9.1, 24.4, and 15.3 [5] Market Analysis - **EC Market**: The market is oscillating strongly. In early November, the spot prices of shipping companies varied, and the price in late November was reported at 3000 [7] - **Influencing Factors**: The key influencing factors include the fulfillment of peak - season demand, the persistence of shipping company strategies, and geopolitical and long - term agreement variables [8] - **Outlook and Strategy**: In the short term, the market is expected to remain strongly oscillating. It is recommended to buy the main contract at low prices and focus on tracking the suspension of voyages and shipping company loading rates. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [8][9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 3rd, the A - share market recovered after hitting a low, with all three major indexes closing in the green. The ChiNext Index dropped 2% during the session. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55% to 3976.52 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.19%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.29%. The North Securities 50 Index fell 0.98%, the Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index fell 1.04%, the Wind All - A Index rose 0.39%, the Wind 4500 Index rose 0.19%, and the CSI A500 Index rose 0.19%. The total trading volume of A - shares for the day was 2.13 trillion yuan, compared with 2.35 trillion yuan the previous day [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Index Quotes - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index closed at 3016.3507, up 0.16%, with a trading volume of 1346.37 billion yuan and a trading volume of 54.90 billion [3]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4653.4028, up 0.27%, with a trading volume of 5576.03 billion yuan and a trading volume of 239.87 billion [3]. - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7538.1178, up 0.42%, with a trading volume of 4324.23 billion yuan and a trading volume of 278.24 billion [3]. 3.2 CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading Situation | Index | Call Option Volume (10,000 contracts) | Put Option Volume (10,000 contracts) | Volume PCR | Call Option Open Interest (10,000 contracts) | Put Option Open Interest (10,000 contracts) | Open Interest PCR | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 | 3.57 | 2.22 | 0.61 | 2.98 | 1.97 | 0.66 | | CSI 300 | 7.15 | 5.25 | 0.73 | 11.03 | 8.64 | 0.78 | | CSI 1000 | 24.31 | 12.92 | 0.88 | 14.44 | 15.01 | 1.04 | [3] 3.3 Volatility Analysis - The report presents historical volatility cones and volatility smile curves for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 indexes, including historical volatility data for different periods such as 5 - day, 20 - day, 40 - day, 60 - day, and 120 - day, as well as the current value and percentile values [3][4].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the entire industry was provided in the report Core Viewpoint - In the short term, as positive factors such as the progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations and better - than - expected third - quarter report results are gradually released, market sentiment may shift from relative optimism to caution, and the stock index may enter an oscillation phase to accumulate momentum for the next upward movement. Meanwhile, with policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock index [1] Summary by Industry Category Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space [1] Metals Precious Metals - Gold is expected to oscillate in the short term and gradually stabilize, and silver prices may also maintain an oscillation [1] Base Metals - Copper prices have corrected, but the downward space is expected to be limited; aluminum prices are oscillating; alumina has weak fundamentals and downward pressure on spot prices; zinc is expected to maintain high - level oscillation; nickel and stainless steel prices are affected by macro factors and supply - side conditions, with nickel having high - inventory pressure; tin has long - term low - buying opportunities; industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate prices are oscillating, with lithium carbonate facing potential upward pressure after the macro - sentiment is realized [1] Ferrous Metals - Steel products such as rebar, iron ore, manganese silicon, and white silicon are oscillating, with different influencing factors such as production restrictions, cost support, and supply - demand relationships; glass prices are oscillating, and the upward resistance is relatively large; the upward breakthrough of coking coal futures is uncertain, and coke can consider selling hedging [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil may have a phased rebound; soybean oil has limited rebound momentum; rapeseed oil is under pressure; cotton demand has great uncertainty, and the new - crop basis and futures prices may be under pressure; sugar prices have seasonal strength in the short term but limited rebound space in the medium term; soybean meal has limited rebound height; pulp is recommended for 11 - 1 reverse spreads; log is recommended for observation; live pig futures may turn weak following the spot [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt are oscillating, with different influencing factors such as OPEC+ production plans, geopolitical situations, and supply - demand relationships; natural rubber is bullish, while BR rubber is under pressure; PTA prices are rising, and short - fiber prices follow the cost; benzene - related products are affected by factors such as weak prices and reduced device operating rates; urea, methanol, PVC, and caustic soda are oscillating, with different influencing factors such as supply pressure and cost support; LPG's domestic spot fundamentals are stable [1] Others - The shipping industry in November has relatively loose transport capacity supply and is in an oscillating state [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the domestic soybean meal market is expected to be oscillatingly stronger, but the rebound height of the futures price is limited by the current loose supply of nearby soybean meal and the expected loose global soybean supply in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the policy changes between China and the US, adjustments in the US Department of Agriculture reports, and changes in South American weather [9]. 3. Summary by Related Contents a. Basis and Spread Data - For 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract), on November 3rd, the basis in Dalian was 74 with a rise of 15; in Tianjin, it was 54 with a rise of 25; in other regions like Rizhao, Zhangjiagang, etc., specific basis and changes are also provided. The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 67 with a decline of 11. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 483 with a rise of 13, and the futures price difference of the main contract was 535 with a decline of 98 [6][7]. b. Supply Situation - The USDA currently estimates the US soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio for the 2025/2026 season at 6.9%. The expected yield per acre of 53.5 bushels may be lowered, while the export forecast has room for an upward adjustment, and the supply - demand balance of US soybeans is expected to be tight. As of October 25th, according to CONAB data, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 34.4%, compared with 21.1% last week, 37.7% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 42.5%. The far - month soybean purchase and shipping progress is slow [7][8]. c. Demand Situation - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory, and the reduction in production capacity is not obvious, which supports feed demand. However, the current farming profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. Recently, the downstream transactions of soybean meal have been cautious, but the提货 performance has been good [9]. d. Inventory Situation - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historical highs for the same period, and it is expected that the inventory will start to decline in November. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [9].