| | | | | 聚酯数据日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/6/12 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/6/10 | 2025/6/11 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 479.8 | 478. 1 | -1. 70 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情下跌,后期PTA供应渐增,预估7月PTA累 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/吨) | 1125. 2 | 1145.6 | 20. 35 | 库存,利空PTA行情。本周PTA现货货少,递盘基差走 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3227 | 1. 3297 | 0. 0070 | 强。 | | PX | CFR中国PX | 817 | 812 | -5 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 249 | 239 | -11 | | | | PTA主力期价(元/吨) | 4612 | 4620 | 8. ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】 31号 【一 国贸期货 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | | 技资咨询号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | Z0017251 2025/6/12 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号: | | | | | | F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/6/10 | 2025/6/11 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4855 | 4825 | (30. 00) | | | | | | | 现货资讯: | | MEG内盘价格 | 4376 | 4377 | 1.00 | 短纤:涤纶短纤涨10至6414。现货市场:涤纶 | | PTA收盘价 | 4612 | 4620 | 8.00 | 短纤生产企业价格横盘整理,贸易商价格偏弱震 | | MEG收盘价 | 4269 | 4285 | 16.00 | 荡,下游按需采购,场内成交一般。 | | | | | | 1.56dtex*38mm半光本白(1.4D)涤纶短纤华东市 | | 1.4D直纺涤短 | 6575 | 6570 ...

2017 E 贸期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 D7 7 - 市 市 服 热 线 官 方 网 Int 站 需 有 课 风 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 慎 险 HD. 入 期 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/6/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | | | | 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | COMEX黄金 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | | COMEX白银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 银15点价 | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格厨房 | 2025/6/11 3357.90 | ...

【钢材】价格来到 20 日均线压力处,关注重新套保机会 周三价格小涨,价格来到 20 日均线压力处,可关注是否有新的套保入场机会。 产业土看,黑色品种近期期现基差都很 大,反弹带一波基差修复（期货贴水修复）,是合理的。而在基差修复之后,若产业还没有找到更好的做多故事,则价格可 能会重新面临压力。热卷和螺纹反弹压力位关注盘面20日均线附近,重新入场套保的点位区间。 器色盒属数据日报 2025/06/12 | 5/06/12 | | 国贸期货出品 TG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | 市千雪加 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2601 | HC2601 | 12601 | J2601 | JM2601 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ...

| TCTERETT | H 用 策略参 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 夜命合国言:ZOUUUI | 人业资格号: F075 发 | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 品种 | | | 当前国内因素对股指的驱动力不强,基本面表现偏弱,最新通胀 | 和外贸数据显示价格继续低位运行、出口增速放缓,政策面也处 | 于相对真空期。海外因素主导了股指的短期波动,需关注中美经 | | | | | | 股指 | 農汤 | 贸谈判的最新进展。预计在无明显利好出现的情况下, 股指向上 | 突破的可能性较低。操作节奏上需警惕中美关税信号的反复,建 | | | | | 宏观金融 | 议以观望为主。 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 震荡 | 国债 | | | | 空间。 | 震荡 | 短期或震荡运行:中长期上涨逻辑仍旧坚实。 | 東金 | | | | | 震荡 | 冲高回落后,银价短期料进入震荡走势。 | 日银 | 中美新一轮会谈提振市场风险偏好,铜价偏强运行,但下游需求 | 第二 | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - The central bank uses short - and medium - term liquidity management tools to keep mid - year liquidity reasonably abundant. Short - term fluctuations in stock indices are dominated by overseas factors. The results of short - term Sino - US trade negotiations are relatively positive, leading to a relatively strong market oscillation. However, caution is needed regarding the repeated signals of Sino - US tariffs when operating [4][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Monetary Market - **Interest Rates**: DRO01 closed at 1.37 with a 0.48bp increase, DR007 at 1.53 with a 2.13bp increase, GC001 at 1.53 with a 2.00bp increase, GC007 at 1.58 with a 2.50bp increase. SHBOR 3M was 1.64 with a - 0.30bp change, LPR 5 - year was 3.50 with a - 10.00bp change. 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds were at 1.41 (-0.50bp), 1.50 (-0.60bp), and 1.64 (-1.45bp) respectively, and 10 - year US treasury bonds were at 4.47 (-2.00bp) [3] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 1640 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%. With 2149 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal was 509 billion yuan. This week, 9309 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 1265 billion and 1350 billion yuan maturing on Thursday and Friday respectively [3][4] 3.2 Stock Index Futures Market - **Stock Index Performance**: The CSI 300 rose 0.75% to 3894.6, the SSE 50 rose 0.59% to 2692.1, the CSI 500 rose 0.61% to 5792.9, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.4% to 6186.5. The trading volume of the two markets was 12555 billion yuan, a decrease of 1599 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed higher [5] - **Futures Contracts**: For futures contracts, IF, IH, IC, and IM of the current - month contracts had certain price changes and volume/position changes. For example, IF current - month contract rose 1.0%, its trading volume increased 13.3%, and its open interest increased 5.1% [5] - **Premium and Discount Situation**: The premium and discount rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for different delivery months are provided. For example, the IF current - month contract had a premium rate of 16.48% [7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - A slight restocking by downstream players has led to a rebound in lithium carbonate prices. However, the contradiction of continuously falling ore prices remains unchanged. After the price rebound, the supply of lithium carbonate has increased rapidly while the demand has remained stable. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 60,500 yuan, with a daily increase of 150 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 58,900 yuan, also with a daily increase of 150 yuan. [1] - For lithium carbonate futures contracts, the closing price of lithium carbonate 2506 is 61,700 yuan, up 1.18%; lithium carbonate 2507 is 61,680 yuan, up 1.68%; lithium carbonate 2508 is 61,780 yuan, up 1.41%; lithium carbonate 2509 is 61,740 yuan, up 1.41%; lithium carbonate 2510 is 61,800 yuan, up 1.41%. [1] Lithium Ore - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China, Li2O: 5.5% - 6%) is 630 yuan, with a daily increase of 2 yuan. [1] - The price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 685 yuan, up 10 yuan; lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1210 yuan, up 25 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) is 5620 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%) is 6540 yuan. [2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,445 yuan, with a daily increase of 40 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 143,960 yuan, down 140 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 114,665 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 121,435 yuan, down 100 yuan. [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1600 yuan. The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 1180 yuan, with a change of - 770 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 100 yuan, with a change of 80 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 60 yuan, with a change of 160 yuan. [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 132,432 tons, an increase of 861 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 57,116 tons, an increase of 881 tons; the inventory of downstream players (weekly, tons) is 41,076 tons, a decrease of 540 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 34,240 tons, an increase of 520 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 32,837 tons, a decrease of 110 tons. [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 60,937 yuan, with a profit of - 1280 yuan; the cash cost of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate is 64,891 yuan, with a profit of - 6730 yuan. [3] Company News - On the evening of June 9, EVE Energy announced that it plans to issue H - shares and list on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to further enhance its capital strength, comprehensive competitiveness, and international brand image. [3]

| | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | ITG 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | SAL | | | | | | | | 农产品研究中心。 | 国贸期货研究院 | 杨璐琳 | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 | | | 2025/6/12 | | | | | | | 纸浆价格数据 | | | | | | | | | 2025年6月11日 | HMH | 周环比 | | | 2025年6月11日 | 日刊十 HMA | 周环比 | | | SP2601 | 5270 | -0. 23% | 0. 38% | | 针叶浆银星 | 6150 | 0. 00% | 0. 00% | | 期货价格 | SP2507 | 5346 | -0. 56% | 0. 91% | 现货价 | 针叶浆俄针 | 5350 | 0. 00% | 0. 56% | | | SP2509 | 5260 | -0. 45% | 0. 46% ...

Report Overview - The report is a macro-financial data daily report released by the Guomao Futures Research Institute's Macro-Financial Research Center on June 11, 2025 [2][3] Market Interest Rates - DRO01 closed at 1.36 with a -1.41bp change, DR007 at 1.51 with a -0.63bp change, GC001 at 1.51 with an 8.50bp change, and GC007 at 1.56 with a 1.00bp change [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.65 with a -0.40bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a -10.00bp change [3] - 1 - year treasury closed at 1.41 with a -0.25bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.50 with a 0.54bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.59 with a 0.25bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.49 with a -2.00bp change [3] Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted 1986 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% the previous day. With 4545 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal was 2559 billion yuan [3] - This week, 9309 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 2149 billion, 1265 billion, and 1350 billion yuan maturing from Wednesday to Friday respectively [4] Stock Index Futures - The CSI 300 closed at 3865 with a -0.51% change, IF current - month contract at 3841 with a -0.7% change; the SSE 50 closed at 2676 with a -0.39% change, IH current - month contract at 2660 with a -0.6% change; the CSI 500 closed at 5758 with a -0.82% change, IC current - month contract at 5718 with a -0.8% change; the CSI 1000 closed at 6162 with a -0.92% change, IM current - month contract at 6114 with a -0.9% change [5] - IF trading volume was 98975 with a 12.2% change, IF open interest was 238881 with a -1.6% change; IH trading volume was 26839 with a 28.1% change, IH open interest was 84465 with a 0.1% change; IC trading volume was 86124 with a 12.8% change, IC open interest was 219085 with a -0.7% change; IM trading volume was 212759 with a 23.5% change, IM open interest was 338127 with a 4.2% change [5] Market Analysis and Suggestions - The domestic factors have weak driving force for the stock index. The fundamentals are weak, with prices remaining low and export growth slowing. The policy is in a relatively quiet period [6] - Overseas factors dominate the short - term fluctuations of the stock index. Attention should be paid to the latest progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. Without obvious positive news, the possibility of the stock index breaking through upwards is low. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Index Futures Premium and Discount - IF premium/discount: current - month contract 23.10%, next - month contract 15.22%, current - quarter contract 0.02%, next - quarter contract 5.91% [7] - IH premium/discount: current - month contract 22.37%, next - month contract 17.01%, current - quarter contract 7.18%, next - quarter contract 3.71% [7] - IC premium/discount: current - month contract 25.22%, next - month contract 18.22%, current - quarter contract 13.97%, next - quarter contract 11.48% [7] - IM premium/discount: current - month contract 28.37%, next - month contract 22.09%, current - quarter contract 17.95%, next - quarter contract 14.85% [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No explicit industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic factors have weak driving force on stock indices, with weak fundamentals. Overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations, and the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations should be focused on. Without obvious positive factors, the possibility of stock indices breaking upward is low [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks in the short term, suppressing the upward space [1]. - The market is affected by various factors such as Sino - US negotiations, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic data, leading to different trends in various commodities, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products [1]. 3. Summary by Categories Macro - financial - **Stock Indices**: Domestic factors have weak driving force, and overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations. The possibility of upward breakthrough is low without obvious positive factors. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Bond Futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned. It may fluctuate in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term upward logic is solid [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Sino - US talks boost market sentiment, but sufficient supply limits the upward space [1]. - **Aluminum**: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening macro - sentiment and reduced downstream demand may lead to a weakening and fluctuating trend [1]. - **Alumina**: Spot price is stable, while futures price is weak, and the increase in production from the smelting end presses down the futures price [1]. - **Zinc**: Monday's inventory increase presses down the price. The subsequent downward space depends on the de - stocking sustainability on Thursday [1]. - **Nickel**: It fluctuates with the macro - situation in the short term, and there is still pressure from long - term surplus of primary nickel [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Futures are in a weak and fluctuating state in the short term, and there is still supply pressure in the long term [1]. - **Tin**: Supply contradictions intensify in the short term, and the price fluctuates at a high level [1]. Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply shows an improving trend, demand remains low, and inventory pressure is huge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Bearish due to factors such as a decline in downstream production scheduling and an increase in futures premiums over spot [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Bearish as the mine - end price continues to decline and downstream procurement is inactive [1]. - **Steel Products (including Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: In the transition from peak to off - peak season, cost loosens, supply - demand is loose, and there is no upward driving force [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is an expected peak in iron - water production, and there may be an increase in supply in June, so the pressure on steel products should be noted [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Short - term supply - demand is balanced, with a slight increase in production and good demand, but there is heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Cost is affected by coal, some alloy plants resume production, and there is still pressure from supply surplus [1]. - **Glass**: Supply - demand is weak, and the price continues to be weak as the off - peak season approaches [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply surplus concerns resurface, terminal demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Spot prices continue to weaken, and the futures prices rebound to repair the discount. Coking coal can still be short - sold, and the logic for coke is the same [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The May report predicts an increase in production, exports, and inventory. There may be a gap - opening market if there are unexpected data [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: There is a game between weak fundamentals and fluctuations in other oils [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The expectation of Sino - Canadian negotiations is blocked, and there is a lack of key bearish drivers. Be vigilant against a rebound in the market [1]. - **Cotton**: There are short - term disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums, and strong macro - uncertainties in the long term. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - peak season, and attention should be paid to inventory accumulation [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season. If crude oil is weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio and sugar production [1]. - **Corn**: Supply - demand is expected to tighten, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: It is expected to accumulate inventory, and the domestic basis is under pressure. The M09 contract is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade talks [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: Demand is light at present, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Supply is loose, demand is light, and it is recommended to hold short positions or short - sell after a rebound [1]. - **Hogs**: The inventory is expected to be abundant, and the futures are at a discount to the spot. The spot is less affected by slaughter in the short term, and the futures are generally stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Sino - US negotiations have no unexpected results, geopolitical situations are disturbing, and there may be support in the summer consumption peak season [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, with Sino - US negotiations, geopolitical situations, and potential summer support [1]. - **Asphalt**: There are factors such as cost drag, inventory normalization, and slow demand recovery [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The short - term fundamentals are loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, attention should be paid to butadiene maintenance and demand improvement [1]. - **PTA**: The tight situation has been alleviated, and the short - fiber cost is closely related. Short - fiber factories have planned maintenance [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Coal - to - ethylene glycol profits expand, and it is expected to continue to decline [1]. - **Styrene**: Speculative demand weakens, the device load rises, and the basis weakens [1]. - **Urea**: Daily production is still high, and the export demand is expected to increase in the short term, and the market may rebound [1]. - **Methanol**: The domestic start - up rate is high, inventory is increasing, traditional downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1]. - **PE**: Seasonal demand weakens, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]. - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, and the price fluctuates strongly [1]. - **PVC**: Supply pressure increases as maintenance ends and new devices are put into operation, and the price fluctuates weakly. Attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade negotiations [1]. - **LPG**: The spot is strong in the short term, but the market anticipates a price cut. The subsequent trend depends on the alumina market [1]. Other - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: There is a strong expectation but weak reality. Short - selling should be cautious during the price - holding period, and long - positions can be lightly tried in the peak - season contracts. Attention should be paid to the 6 - 8 reverse spread [1]