1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the caustic soda industry is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term futures market has no obvious driving force and is expected to mainly fluctuate [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The caustic soda market shows a situation where spot prices are stable with a downward trend, and the futures market has a slight rebound. Supply and demand factors are both neutral, inventory is bearish, profit is bearish, and valuation is bullish. Overall, the short - term market is expected to oscillate [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance decreased and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 0.8 tons to 85 tons, and the average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with 200,000 tons and above of caustic soda was 86.0%, a week - on - week increase of 1.3%. Next week, domestic chlor - alkali equipment maintenance and restart will coexist, and the overall startup is expected to move slightly upward [3]. - **Demand**: Alumina start - up declined, and non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 87.03%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.59%. The comprehensive start - up rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 61.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.77% [3]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with 200,000 tons and above was 442,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 4.83% and a year - on - year increase of 39.57%. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio was 27.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.08%. Warehouse inventories in the central and eastern regions decreased [3]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around - 49, with the futures price at a premium [3]. - **Profit**: During the period, raw material and auxiliary material costs were stable, energy costs decreased, and the theoretical production cost of caustic soda decreased. The caustic soda price increased, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine decreased, and the overall chlor - alkali profit decreased. The average weekly gross profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was - 61 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 26% [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price is at a low level, the absolute futures price is low, and the near - month contract has a slight premium [3]. - **Macro Policy**: There is currently no relevant macro - policy impact [3]. - **Investment View**: The short - term futures market has no obvious driving force and is expected to mainly oscillate [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: There are no suggestions for unilateral trading and arbitrage. Key risks to watch include changes in liquid chlorine prices, rotation storage policies, and the global economic recession [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - The spot market in Shandong was weak this week, and the futures market had weak support at the bottom. The price of liquid chlorine was higher than in the first half of the year, first falling and then rising, fluctuating around 200 yuan/ton. The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit was close to the break - even line. The 32% caustic soda price was stable with a downward trend, and the high - concentration caustic soda had not yet stabilized. Downstream demand was weak, and the overall performance of the Shandong market was still poor. There were expectations of price cuts for alumina procurement in Shanxi and Henan [6]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Upstream**: Coal supply is tight, and electricity prices are rising. The upstream production capacity utilization rate remains at a high level, and inventory is being depleted. In the main production areas, maintenance in North China has decreased, and production has increased. The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit has declined [31][34][37]. - **Downstream**: Alumina prices have declined, and non - aluminum prices are weak. Alumina production has recovered, and inventory has increased. Due to the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new plants, the alumina start - up rate in Henan has significantly increased. Non - aluminum demand has entered a seasonal off - season, and start - up rates are declining. The start - up rate of liquid chlorine downstream has rebounded [42][54][67].

【液化石油气（LPG）投资周报】 烯烃链条需求一般， PG走势震荡转弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-29 国贸期货研究院：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 国贸期货研究院：施宇龙 从业资格证号：F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 本周能化大宗产品收盘价格监控 | 品 种 | 单 位 | 值 现 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 月涨跌幅 | 年涨跌幅 | 周价格走势 | 品 种 | 单 位 | 值 现 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 月涨跌幅 | 年涨跌幅 周价格走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元兑人民币汇率 | 元 | 7 0358 . | -0 05% . | -0 27% . | -0 61% . | -2 13% . | | 天然橡胶 | 元/吨 | 1 ...

C）中长期观点。中长期来看。美联储仍处于宽松周期、大国博弈加剧和逆全球化趋势将令全球地缘不确定性持续、美国巨额债务和美联储独立性削弱将进一步增 加美元信用风险、全球央行/机构/居民的配置需求有望延续、故金价中长期重心大概率继续上移，建议长线投资者以逢低做多配置为主。 the Sept 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/12/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2602 | AG2602 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | ( ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term outlook: Bullish on the synthetic rubber industry [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for tires at home and abroad is satisfactory, and the low - price synthetic rubber triggers a substitution effect. DL Chemical's plan to shut down the No. 1 cracking unit of YNCC strongly supports market sentiment. Although the supply prices of BD/BR have risen significantly, the current fundamentals of BD/BR remain weak. Attention should be paid to the news of continued exports of butadiene, the strength changes among rubber varieties, the inventory reduction progress of BD/BR, and the change in the raw material price transmission logic on the supply side [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of December 25, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 11,100 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies was between 11,100 - 11,400 yuan/ton. In the Shandong market, the price of cis - butadiene rubber continued to rise, with the spot price ranging from 10,600 to 11,300 yuan/ton. The price increase was driven by the expectation of reduced production profit of cis - butadiene rubber due to butadiene inventory reduction in January of the next year, the news of butadiene export transactions to South Korea, and the expected macro - level benefits of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in January of the next year [4] 3.2 Influencing Factors of Butadiene Rubber 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, China's butadiene production was [missing data] tons (with a change of [missing data]%), and the capacity utilization rate was [missing data]%. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was [missing data] tons (67%), and the capacity utilization rate was 77%. In the butadiene sector, some plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, etc., were shut down, and the Dongming plant restarted after a short - term shutdown, with a slight increase in production. In the cis - butadiene rubber sector, except for the plants of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical being shut down, other plants were operating at a high load, and the supply remained sufficient [3] 3.2.2 Demand - In the semi - steel tire market, in the second half of the month, the market transaction remained dull, and the price was weak. The market supply was abundant, and the all - season tires were mainly for inventory reduction. In the all - steel tire market, the demand decreased, and the transaction price was chaotic. Some merchants were reducing inventory and reducing purchases, but the inventory reduction effect was not as expected [3] 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 43,300 tons, a 20.28% month - on - month decrease. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 34,540 tons, a 1.56% month - on - month decrease. The enterprise inventory of butadiene decreased by 8.22% month - on - month, and the port inventory decreased by 12.65% month - on - month. In the cis - butadiene rubber sector, the downstream price - pressing led to weak transactions, with an increase in production enterprise inventory and a slight decrease in trading enterprise inventory [3] 3.2.4 Basis - The basis of cis - butadiene rubber in North China was - 835 yuan/ton, in East China was - 735 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 685 yuan/ton [3] 3.2.5 Spread/Ratio - The RU - BR spread was 4,145 yuan/ton (- 0.60%); the NR - BR spread was 1,120 yuan/ton (- 16.42%); the BR - SC ratio was 0.15% [3] 3.2.6 Profit - The production profit of butadiene by oxidative dehydrogenation was - 1,154 yuan/ton, and that by C4 extraction was 1,058.67 yuan/ton. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 457 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 4.21% [3] 3.2.7 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, increasing the policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75%. The offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar once exceeded 7, which was beneficial to import enterprises. The US CPI in November increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year. The UK's CPI data showed that inflation pressure still existed to some extent. China's financial data in November showed that M2 increased by 8.0% year - on - year, and the growth rate of social financing stock remained at 8.5%, indicating weak domestic demand but still policy support [3] 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Appropriately maintain long positions, and be vigilant against the risk of profit - taking pullbacks. Arbitrage: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key risks to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance, and geopolitical situations [3] 3.4 Correlation Analysis of Synthetic Rubber - Related Varieties - The report provides correlation coefficient heat maps of price trends of natural rubber - related varieties for 1 - month and 3 - month periods, showing the relationships among crude oil, synthetic rubber, butadiene, cis - butadiene rubber, styrene - butadiene rubber, and other varieties [9] 3.5 Device Status - The report lists the maintenance and shutdown situations of China's butadiene and high - cis butadiene rubber plants in 2025, including production enterprises, maintenance capacities, shutdown times, and startup times [11] 3.6 Price Seasonal Charts and Related Data - The report presents a series of price seasonal charts, including those of cis - butadiene rubber futures and spot prices, butadiene domestic and international prices, and also includes data on production, consumption, inventory, cost, and profit of butadiene and synthetic rubber [22][23][27][28][29][31][34][38] 3.7 Downstream Industry Data - The report provides data on the production, start - up, and inventory of downstream industries such as tires (full - steel and semi - steel tires) and conveyor belts, reflecting the demand situation of the synthetic rubber industry [98][105][112]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the black metal market is mixed, with different trends and characteristics in each sub - sector. The market is affected by both macro and industrial factors, and the strategies for different varieties vary [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - The price of steel is in a state of stable fluctuation, and the driving force is not clear. The market is in a situation of both weak supply and demand. The de - stocking pressure of plates is prominent. After January, iron - water production may stop falling and stabilize, and there will be some appropriate replenishment behavior in the industry. Unilateral trading can be treated with an oscillatory mindset, and the hot - rolled coil futures - spot positive spread can still be rolled [2][4] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese (Double Silicon) - The double - silicon market shows a situation of weak reality and strong expectations. The demand has weakened significantly, and it is difficult to improve in the short term. The supply is still high, and the pressure of over - supply in the medium term remains. Although the cost support of silicomanganese is strengthening, the price may fall under pressure in the future. Industrial customers can sell short for hedging at high prices, and investment customers can mainly engage in reverse spreads [4] Coking Coal and Coke - The spot market of coke has an increasing expectation of the fourth round of price cuts, and the coking coal auction has mixed results with a high non - sale rate. The futures market is in an oscillatory state. The steel is still in a pattern of weak supply and demand, which is unfavorable to furnace materials. After the basis repair of the futures market, it is oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, and industrial customers can consider purchasing some cost - effective spot goods [4] Iron Ore - The iron - water production shows signs of stabilizing. The port inventory of iron ore will continue to rise, and the price has an obvious upward pressure. Considering the steel mill's maintenance plan and seasonal factors, the iron - water production is expected to stabilize at the end of the month and rise in January. The steel mills will replenish the inventory before resuming production, so the price fluctuation range is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] 4. Data Summary on December 26 Futures Contracts - **Far - month Contracts**: RB2610 closed at 3167 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan (- 0.25%); HC2610 at 3296 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan (- 0.18%); I2609 at 761 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan (0.66%); J2609 at 1796.5 yuan/ton, down 16.5 yuan (- 0.91%); JM2609 at 1195.5 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan (- 0.75%) [1] - **Near - month Contracts (Main Contracts)**: RB2605 closed at 3118 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan (+0.42%); HC2605 at 3283 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (- 0.06%); I2605 at 783 yuan/ton, up 5.5 yuan (0.71%); J2605 at 1720 yuan/ton, down 19.5 yuan (- 1.12%); JM2605 at 1115.5 yuan/ton, down 11.5 yuan (- 1.02%) [1] Spread and Ratio - **Cross - month Spread**: RB2605 - 2610 was - 49 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; HC2605 - 2610 was - 13 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; I2605 - 2609 was 22 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan; J2605 - 2609 was - 76.5 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; JM2605 - 2609 was - 80 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan [1] - **Spread/Ratio/Profit**: The coil - to - rebar spread was 165 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.98, down 0.03; the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.54, down 0.01; the rebar futures profit was - 91.7 yuan/ton, down 6.93 yuan; the coking futures profit was 236.39 yuan/ton, down 7.7 yuan [1] Spot Prices - **Steel Rebar**: Shanghai rebar was 3280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3140 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Guangzhou rebar was 3520 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan billet was 2940 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Platts Index was 107.85, up 0.55 [1] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3250 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3370 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3240 yuan/ton, unchanged; the billet - to - product spread was 340 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of PB fines at Rizhao Port was 792 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - **Other**: The price of super - special fines at Qingdao Port was 675 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of coking coal at Ganqimaodu was 1170 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1480 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 793 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Basis - HC main contract basis was - 33 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; RB main contract basis was 162 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; I main contract basis was 19 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis was - 93.6 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; JM main contract basis was 84.5 yuan/ton, up 38.5 yuan [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Index, Aluminum, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium), Carbonate Lithium, Silicon Iron, Glass, Cotton, Corn, PTA, Short Fiber, BR Rubber, LPG - **Bearish**: Palm Oil - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Treasury Bonds, Copper, Alumina, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Rapeseed Oil, Sugar, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, Container Shipping on the Europe Route 2. Core Views - The market sentiment and liquidity are in good condition, with the index breaking through the previous oscillation range and expected to remain strong [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks [1]. - The macro - sentiment is positive, while the industrial fundamentals are mixed across different metals, leading to varying price trends [1]. - For agricultural products, supply and demand factors, policy expectations, and cost support play important roles in price movements [1]. - In the energy and chemical sectors, factors such as production plans, supply - demand balance, cost changes, and geopolitical events influence prices [1]. 3. Summary by Categories Equity and Bond Markets - **Index**: The index continued to rise yesterday, with increased trading volume. It is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Metals Market - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The industrial situation is weak, but the macro - sentiment is positive, so the copper price remains strong [1]. - **Aluminum**: There is inventory accumulation in domestic electrolytic aluminum, but the macro - sentiment drives the price to oscillate strongly [1]. - **Alumina**: After an over - decline, it rebounded. Policy continuity should be noted [1]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted up. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia plans to cut nickel ore production in 2026. The global nickel inventory is high, but the price has rebounded. It may be strong in the short term, with a long - term surplus [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Raw material prices are stable, inventory is slightly reduced, and steel mills are reducing production. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Tin**: The industry association issued an initiative to guide the price back to normal. Considering the Congo situation and market sentiment, low - buying opportunities are recommended [1]. - **Precious Metals**: - **Gold and Silver**: The market sentiment is high, silver is rising rapidly, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped to a low level since 2013. They are expected to be strong in the short term, but silver may have sharp fluctuations [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The overseas prices rose on Friday, which is expected to drive up domestic prices. However, the domestic futures prices have a large premium, so rational participation is advised [1]. Black Metal Market - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: The basis and production profit are not high, and short - selling is not recommended. The long - short arbitrage positions can take profit on a rolling basis [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the far - term contracts have upward potential due to good market sentiment [1]. - **Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron**: The direct demand is weak, and the supply is high, so the prices are under pressure [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: After the negative news was released, the prices showed signs of stabilization. Attention should be paid to the spot market and downstream winter - storage replenishment [1]. Agricultural Products Market - **Palm Oil**: The high - frequency data has improved, but the supply in the producing areas is expected to be loose. Short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Although there has been a rebound, the subsequent supply is expected to be more abundant. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is support from the purchase price, but there is no strong driving force. Future policies and demand should be monitored [1]. - **Sugar**: There is a global surplus, and the domestic supply is increasing. The cost provides support if the price drops [1]. - **Corn**: The downstream replenishment demand is expected to drive the price to oscillate strongly [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The near - term contracts are affected by customs policies, and the overall trend is expected to be strong in the near term and weak in the long term [1]. - **Pulp**: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread [1]. - **Logs**: The 01 contract is under pressure due to the approaching delivery month and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The demand is supported, and the production capacity needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemical Market - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, and geopolitical factors such as the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuela affect the price [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term [1]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, but the long - term demand is likely to be over - estimated [1]. - **Other Chemical Products**: - **Industrial Silicon**: The production in the northwest is increasing, and that in the southwest is decreasing. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon is decreasing in December [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is in the peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy - storage demand. The supply is increasing, and the price is rising rapidly in the short term [1]. - **PTA and Short Fiber**: The PX price is strong, the PTA device is operating at a high load, and the polyester production and sales are improving [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Some production devices are expected to stop, and the price has rebounded due to supply - side news [1]. - **Styrene**: The price has rebounded due to supply contraction, but the downstream demand is weak [1]. - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - **Propylene**: The supply pressure is large, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is inventory pressure in Shandong, and the price may decline [1]. - **LPG**: The market is in an oscillating range, and attention should be paid to price changes affected by natural gas [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost is rising, the price is increasing, and the market sentiment is strong [1]. Shipping Market - **Container Shipping on the Europe Route**: The price increase in December was lower than expected, the peak - season price increase was pre - priced, and the shipping capacity supply was relatively loose [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PX market sentiment is supported by the expectation of tight supply in Q1 2026, with the PX - naphtha spread widening to $360 and the PX - mixed xylene spread rising to $244, which encourages PX producers to actively purchase MX for conversion [2] - Demand remains robust, with domestic PTA maintaining high operation rates, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the resumption of exports to India since the end of November [2] - High gasoline spreads support aromatics. New polyester installations drive high polyester load, keeping PTA consumption high and increasing market hoarding willingness, leading to a rapid strengthening of the basis [2] - Polyester demand weakens seasonally in China, but polyester factory production cuts are insufficient to form a negative feedback. Amid the enthusiasm in the commodity market, PTA prices are significantly boosted, and the costs of bottle chips and short fibers follow suit [2] Group 3: Summary of Index Data PTA and MEG Prices - PTA spot price increased from 5050 to 5175, a rise of 125; PTA closing price rose from 5152 to 5280, an increase of 128 [2] - MEG domestic price increased from 3653 to 3666, a rise of 13; MEG closing price rose from 3818 to 3846, an increase of 28 [2] Short Fiber Data - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6575 to 6690, a rise of 115; short - fiber basis increased from 100 to 114, an increase of 14 [2] - 2 - 3 spread decreased from 6 to 0, a decline of 6; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber price spread increased from 1300 to 1415, a rise of 115 [2] - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, a rise of 0.95%; polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from 56.00% to 90.00%, a rise of 34.00% [2][3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00%; recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [3] Bottle Chip Data - Polyester bottle chip prices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang market increased, with the average price rising by 95 yuan/ton; prices of various types of bottle chips (including water bottle chips, hot - filled polyester bottle chips, etc.) all increased by 80 [2] - Outer - market water bottle chip price increased from 795 to 805, a rise of 10; bottle chip spot processing fee decreased from 469 to 438, a decline of 31 [2] Other Product Data - T32S pure polyester yarn price increased from 10350 to 10360, a rise of 10; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3775 to 3670, a decline of 105 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price increased from 16300 to 16350, a rise of 50; polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1271 to 1137, a decline of 134 [2] - Cotton 328 price increased from 15000 to 15285, a rise of 285 [2] - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price increased from 7150 to 7215, a rise of 65; hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 408 to 362, a decline of 46 [2] - Primary low - melting - point short - fiber price increased from 7690 to 7775, a rise of 85 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The implementation of the new round of price increase letters is good, domestic inventory has been reduced, and the market should be viewed with a bullish bias in a volatile manner [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Paper Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On December 26, 2025, SP2601 was at 5564 yuan/ton with a 0.58% daily and 2.47% weekly increase; SP2609 was at 5662 yuan/ton with a 0.21% daily and 2.54% weekly increase; SP2605 was at 5630 yuan/ton with a 0.46% daily and 2.25% weekly increase [6] - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp silver star was at 5600 yuan/ton, coniferous pulp Russian needle was at 5400 yuan/ton, and broadleaf pulp Golden was at 4670 yuan/ton, with no daily change for silver star and Russian needle, and a 0.43% weekly increase for Golden [6] - **Foreign Quotes**: Chilean silver star was at 700 dollars/ton with a 2.94% monthly increase, Japanese Meigeng was at 580 dollars/ton with a 3.57% monthly increase, and Chilean Venus was at 620 dollars/ton with no change [6] - **Import Costs**: Chilean silver star was at 5721 yuan/ton with a 2.91% monthly increase, Brazilian Goldfish was at 4749 yuan/ton with a 3.53% monthly increase, and Chilean Venus was at 5073 yuan/ton with no change [6] Paper Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In November 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.5 tons and broadleaf pulp was 176.5 tons, with monthly increases of 4.92% and 33.92% respectively. Suzano announced a global price increase for broadleaf pulp in January 2026, with a 20 - dollar increase in Asia and a 120 - dollar increase in Europe and North America for Goldfish broadleaf pulp [6] - **Inventory**: As of December 25, 2025, the sample inventory of China's major pulp ports was 190.6 tons, a decrease of 8.7 tons from the previous period, a 4.4% decrease. The inventory has been decreasing for five consecutive weeks [6] - **Demand**: The demand side remains weak. Among mainstream wood - pulp papers, the price of cultural paper continues to decline, while the prices of tissue paper and white cardboard have slightly increased [6]

利润估算 种类 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 114573 H 利 # 江 -4185 外购锂辉石精矿利润 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 111677 外购锂云母精矿利润 -3885 行业 12月25日晚，湖南裕能，万润新能公告拟对部分产线就产检修。湖南裕能公告检修时间从2026年1月1日起预计一个月，本次检修预计减少公司 盐正极材料产品产量1.5至3.5万吨。万润新能公告，自2025年12月28日起，公司将对部分产线按照预定计划进行减产检修，预计检修时 个月,预计减少公司磷酸铁锂产量5000吨至2万吨。 主要 污灾方面,终端(储能+新能源车) 旺季持续,材料端1月停产检修增加,社会库存"上游-下游-终端"移动的链条流畅。供给方面,尚未见大 墙产。产业链博弈长协价格,上游挺价意愿增加,再次验证终端需求旺盛,中长期支撑价格。短期内,价格快速上涨, 十十八 7117 警惕追言风险。 xiti 贡 免 告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料、国贸期货力求准确可靠。但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做低何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建 对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要，投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，据 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何 保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资者需自行 断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,据此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推 授授权许可,任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权 责任。期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 ITG 国贸期货 装置检修动态:宁波一套220万吨PTA装置预计24日复车,该装置11月下停车检修。 ·PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 5200 4000 300 100 4200 3000 -100 3200 -300 2000 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2025- 2024-12 2025-02 2025-04 ...