碳酸锂基本面数据 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 6 日 碳酸锂：供给收缩担忧叠加需求向好预期，价格重 心上移 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi@gtht.com 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 liuhongru@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2601合约（收盘价） | 127,000 | 7,000 | 5,460 | 22,560 | 32,140 | 53,420 | | | | 2601合约（成交量） | 2,806 | -3,191 | -30,573 | -34,825 | -70,390 | -117,409 | | | | 2601合约（持仓量） | 7,060 | -4,225 | -19,432 | -61,809 | -230,322 | -165,565 | | | 盘面 | 2605合约（收盘价） | 129 ...

2026 年 01 月 06 日 短纤：短期震荡市 20260106 瓶片：短期震荡市 20260106 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2601 | 6400 | 6476 | -76 | PF01-02 | -62 | -38 | -24 | | PF | 短纤2602 | 6462 | 6514 | -52 | PF02-03 | 6 | -42 | 48 | | | 短纤2603 | 6456 | 6556 | -100 | PF主力基差 | રેં રે | 31 | 22 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 173239 | 242013 | -68774 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6.515 | 6. 545 | -30 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 153152 | 166489 | -13337 | 短纤产销率 | 53% | ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 06 日 焦炭：矛盾积累，震荡偏弱 （1）1 月 5 日中国煤炭资源网 CCI 冶金煤指数：CCI 山西低硫主焦 S0.7 1487（-8）；CCI 山西中硫 主焦 S1.3 1230（-）；CCI 山西高硫主焦 S1.6 1219（-） （2）Mysteel 煤焦：4 日临汾安泽市场炼焦煤价格下跌 100 元/吨，低硫主焦精煤 A9、S0.5、V20、G85 出厂价现金含税 1500 元/吨。 货 研 究 所 焦煤：矛盾积累，震荡偏弱 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023649 liuyuwu2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | JM2605 | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 1080. 5 | -34.5 | -3.1% | | 期货价格 | | 12605 | 1648.5 | -44.5 | -2.6% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2605 | ...

Report Summary Core View - The upward trend of fuel oil has temporarily paused, with support at lower levels. Low-sulfur fuel oil is in a narrow range, and the spot price spread between high and low sulfur in the overseas market is temporarily stable [1]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Key Points from the Report 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: - FU2602 closed at 2,426 yuan/ton, down 0.82% from the previous day, with a settlement price of 2,454 yuan/ton, up 0.29%. - EU2603 closed at 2,427 yuan/ton, up 0.29%, with a settlement price of 2,461 yuan/ton, up 0.20%. - LU2602 closed at 2,879 yuan/ton, down 1.34%, with a settlement price of 2,907 yuan/ton, down 0.89%. - FU2603 closed at 2,891 yuan/ton, down 0.89%, with a settlement price of 2,917 yuan/ton, down 1.32% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: - Trading volume of FU2602 was 14,578, an increase of 4,408; open interest was 18,140, a decrease of 2,464. - Trading volume of EU2603 was 537,583, a decrease of 54,477; open interest was 193,088, an increase of 24,300. - Trading volume of LU2602 was 4,187, a decrease of 6,397; open interest was 11,523, a decrease of 1,767. - Trading volume of LU2603 was 77,556, a decrease of 35,187; open interest was 86,874, an increase of 6,393 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts Changes**: - Total market warehouse receipts of fuel oil (FU) decreased by 10,000 to 191,390; warehouse receipts of low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) remained unchanged at 55,230 [1]. - **Spot Prices and Changes**: - Singapore FOB prices: High-sulfur (3.5%S) was $332.9/ton, down 1.38%; low-sulfur (0.5%S) was $403.4/ton, down 1.33%. - Singapore Bunker prices: High-sulfur was $346.0/ton, down 1.42%; low-sulfur was $415.0/ton, down 1.89%. - Other regional bunker prices also showed various changes, with South Korea's low-sulfur bunker price up 2.82% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: - The spread of FU02 - 03 was -1 yuan/ton, the spread of LU02 - 03 was -12 yuan/ton, and the spread of LU02 - FU02 was 453 yuan/ton. - The spread between FU2602 and Singapore MOPS (3.5%S) was 102.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.6 yuan/ton from the previous day; the spread between LU2602 and Singapore MOPS (0.5%S) was 63.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.2 yuan/ton; the spread between Singapore MOPS (0.5%S - 3.5%S) was $70.5/ton, a decrease of $0.8/ton [1]. 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of fuel oil is 0, and the trend intensity of low-sulfur fuel oil is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1].

【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 （02合约） | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） （手） | 11,645 | 11,520 | 125 -10327 | | | | | | 87,354 | 97,681 | | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 40,237 | 41,261 | -1024 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 510,596 | 564,140 | -53544 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | 5 | 11,500 | -11495 | | | 月差 | BR02-BR05 | | -85 | -85 | 0 | | | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 11,100 | 11,000 | 100 | | | | 华东顺丁 | （民营） | 11,200 | 11,100 | 100 | | | | 华南顺丁 | （民营） | 11,250 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the high - level oscillation of polysilicon and the impact of news on the market. The trend intensities of industrial silicon and polysilicon are both -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market**: Si2605's closing price is 8,730 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 130 yuan from T - 1. PS2605's closing price is 58,645 yuan/ton, with an increase of 725 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume and open interest of both contracts have changed compared to previous periods [1] - **Basis**: Industrial silicon has different spot premiums or discounts when benchmarked against different products, such as +520 for East China Si5530, +120 for East China Si4210, and -30 for Xinjiang 99 silicon. Polysilicon's spot premium or discount (benchmarked against N - type re - investment) is -5,645 yuan/ton [1] - **Prices**: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8,700 yuan/ton, and the price of Yunnan Si4210 is 10,000 yuan/ton. The price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material is 53,250 yuan/ton [1] - **Profit**: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) is - 2,596.5 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) is - 4,904 yuan/ton. The profit of polysilicon enterprises is 8.9 yuan/kg [1] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.7 million tons, the enterprise inventory is 20.2 million tons, and the industry inventory is 75.9 million tons. The factory inventory of polysilicon is 30.6 million tons [1] - **Raw Material Costs**: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, electrodes in different regions remain mostly stable, with only slight changes in some cases [1] - **Prices and Profits in Related Industries**: In the photovoltaic industry, prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other products have different degrees of change. In the organic silicon and aluminum alloy industries, prices and profits also show different trends. For example, the price of DMC is 13,600 yuan/ton, and the profit of DMC enterprises is 1,632 yuan/ton [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On December 31, 2025, the Development and Reform Commission of Hefei, Anhui Province issued a notice to encourage distributed photovoltaic power generation projects to improve local consumption capacity through methods such as integrated photoelectric energy storage and charging and coordinated interaction between power sources, grids, loads, and energy storage. When queuing in areas with no available capacity, power supply companies should inform users about grid - connection through energy storage and the corresponding energy storage ratio [2] 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of industrial silicon and polysilicon is - 1, indicating a bearish view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall fundamentals of PP provide limited support at the end of the year. With the PDH profit at a new low, but the upstream having locked in raw materials and made some pre - sales earlier, the willingness to cut production is not strong. It is expected that PP will continue to be weak. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices under the deep - loss PDH profit [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **LLDPE Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2605 was 6330, with a daily decline of 0.28%. The trading volume was 374,453, and the position changed by 535 [1] - **LLDPE Basis and Spread Data**: The 05 - contract basis was - 160 (compared to - 208 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 25 (compared to - 20 the previous day) [1] - **LLDPE Spot Price Data**: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6180 yuan/ton, 6170 yuan/ton, and 6260 yuan/ton respectively, showing increases compared to the previous day [1] 2. Spot News - Before the festival, the domestic PP market had partial small increases. After the festival, due to the intensification of geopolitical conflicts in South America during the festival, which boosted oil price expectations, the futures fluctuated on the first day after the festival, and the spot prices rose. However, the end - of - year demand is difficult to provide continuous elasticity, the sustainability of buying is questionable, and the warehouse receipts remain at a high level. The PP US - dollar market price remained stable, with overseas suppliers having low enthusiasm for offering to China, and downstream buyers continuing to make rigid - need purchases, resulting in difficult improvement in trading [1] 3. Market Condition Analysis - **Cost Side**: Crude oil and propane prices are strong. The chemical configuration in the market is differentiated, and the hedging logic between aromatics and olefins is continuously strengthened [2] - **Supply Side**: There is no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game between existing supply and demand intensifies [2] - **Demand Side**: The follow - up of new orders from downstream industries weakens, and downstream factories are still cautious in purchasing, resulting in weak demand [2] 4. Trend Intensity - The PP trend intensity is 0 [2]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 6 日 LLDPE：上游库存转移，基差走强 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6449 | -0.36% | 452112 | 7498 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -129 | | -182 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -47 | | -37 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 北 华 | 6320 | | 6290 | | | | 华 东 | 6400 | | 6380 | | | | 华 南 | 6470 | | 6370 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货震荡，节前盘面反弹给到代理、期现商建仓机会，市场补空和套保成交积极，现货短期正反 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 6 日 PVC：短期偏强，中期震荡 | | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | chenjiaxin2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | PVC 基本面数据 | | | | | 01合约期货价格 | 华东现货价格 | 基差 | 1-5月差 | | 4469 | 4480 | 11 | -295 | 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 PVC 趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表 示最看空，2 表示最看多。 【市场状况分析】 【现货消息】 PVC 估值低位，虽然市场交易反内卷、政策端强调着力稳定房地产市场以及近月空头大规模止盈能带动 PVC 阶段性反弹，但这种反弹空间有限，主要因 PVC 市场高产量、高库存结构短期难改变。冬季仍是氯碱 企业检修淡季，即使存在部分装置检修和降负，其规模也有限，对 03 合约之前的期货合约而言，仍然面临 高开工、弱需求的格局。博弈大规模减产预期或在 03 合约之后，而春节期 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it gives trend intensities for each commodity: - Gold: 1 [6] - Silver: 1 [6] - Copper: 2 [9] - Zinc: 1 [12] - Lead: 0 [14] - Tin: 1 [18] - Aluminum: 1 [22] - Alumina: 0 [22] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: 1 [22] - Platinum: 0 [28] - Palladium: 0 [28] - Nickel: 0 [32] - Stainless Steel: 0 [32] 2. Core Views - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded [2] - Silver: Consolidating at high levels [2] - Copper: Bullish sentiment is strong, and prices are rising continuously [2] - Zinc: Oscillating with an upward bias [2] - Lead: Reduced inventory supports prices [2] - Tin: Trading in a range [2] - Aluminum: Continuing to make up for losses [2] - Alumina: Slightly declining [2] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2] - Platinum: Oscillating upwards [2] - Palladium: Trading in a range [2] - Nickel: A wide - range oscillation due to the game between real - world pressure and cycle - shift narratives [2] - Stainless Steel: The real - world fundamentals are dragging down, and the market is mainly speculating on Indonesian policies [2] 3. Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - **Price Performance**: Shanghai Gold 2602 closed at 984.84, down 2.22%; Comex Gold 2602 closed at 4352.30, up 0.05%. Shanghai Silver 2602 closed at 18140, down 0.35%; Comex Silver 2602 closed at 76.015, up 6.11% [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: US air - strikes on Venezuela, geopolitical risks support gold, and OPEC+ will maintain the plan to suspend production increases in Q1 [4][6] Copper - **Price Performance**: Shanghai Copper's main contract closed at 101350, up 3.17%; LME Copper 3M closed at 13088, up 5.03% [7] - **Macro and Industry News**: Venezuelan President Maduro's arrest, US 12 - month ISM manufacturing PMI shrank, and China's November 2025 copper ore imports increased [7] - **Industry Developments**: Chile's Mantoverde copper - gold mine labor contract negotiation, Julong Copper Mine's second - phase expansion, and Kamoa - Kakula copper smelter's production [9] Zinc - **Price Performance**: Shanghai Zinc's main contract closed at 23820, up 2.34%; LME Zinc 3M closed at 3127, up 0.03% [10] - **News**: China's December service industry PMI expanded, and Maduro pleaded not guilty in the US court [11] Lead - **Price Performance**: Shanghai Lead's main contract closed at 17395, up 0.23%; LME Lead 3M closed at 1994, down 0.57% [13] - **News**: Maduro's arrest and US 12 - month ISM manufacturing PMI shrinkage [14] Tin - **Price Performance**: Shanghai Tin's main contract closed at 334370, up 3.55%; LME Tin 3M closed at 42560, up 5.74% [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: US hopes Venezuela to stop oil sales, SK Hynix's new product display, and NVIDIA's plan [18] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: Shanghai Aluminum's main contract closed at 23645, up 720; Shanghai Alumina's main contract closed at 2770, down 8; Cast Aluminum Alloy's main contract closed at 22520 [20] - **Comprehensive News**: US 12 - month ISM manufacturing PMI shrinkage and US motives for Venezuelan military action [22] Platinum and Palladium - **Price Performance**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 583.95, up 8.80%; Palladium futures 2606 closed at 452.85, up 6.50% [27] - **Macro and Industry News**: Venezuelan situation, FOMC member's speech, China - South Korea summit, and new energy vehicle sales [28] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: Shanghai Nickel's main contract closed at 134100, up 1250; Stainless Steel's main contract closed at 13075, down 50 [29] - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia's suspension of new smelting licenses, China's steel product export license, and Indonesia's nickel - related policies [29][30]