期 货 研 究 2025 年 07 月 25 日 铝：短期震荡 氧化铝：价格走强 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20760 | -30 | 345 | 300 | 340 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | ー | l | l | l | 20755 | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2639 | 94 | 0 | 50 | 181 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 145349 | 43175 | 43651 | 911 | 740 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 309943 | 41401 | -17539 | 110999 | 135911 | 电解铝 | | LME铝3M成交量 | 16297 | 3602 | 0 | -12972 | -9311 | LME注销仓单占比 | 3. 38% | 1.16% | 1.56% | -4. 44% | -47.00% ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX: The supply - demand situation remains tight. It is expected to be in a state of unilateral shock and strengthening, and the monthly spread is recommended to be rolled for long positions [8]. - PTA: The raw material trend is strong, with a unilateral upward trend. Attention should be paid to the spread between going long on PTA and shorting PF [8]. - MEG: The unilateral trend turns strong [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - **PX**: The price of naphtha rose at the end of the session. The price of PX increased today, with a September Asian spot deal at 859. Geopolitical tensions drove up crude oil prices, providing additional support for PX. The new PTA factory of Sanfangxiang is expected to start production, boosting the market sentiment in the PX field. However, new tariffs will take effect on August 1st, bringing uncertainty to the PX price [3][5]. - **PTA**: There were no significant changes in PTA devices in the Chinese mainland this week. As of Thursday, the PTA load was 79.7%, and the calculated operating rate was around 85.8%. The PTA production capacity base in the Chinese mainland has been adjusted to 8851.5 million tons since July 1, 2025 [6]. - **MEG**: As of July 24, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 68.35% (a 2.14% increase from the previous period). A 300,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol device in Shanxi plans to shut down for maintenance around August 7th. Two MEG devices in Saudi Arabia with capacities of 450,000 and 700,000 tons/year have resumed operation [7]. - **Polyester**: The operating load of large - scale domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained stable this week. As of Thursday, the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn was around 74%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved moderately today, while the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang weakened overall [7][8]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 1, indicating a moderately strong trend [8]. Views and Suggestions - **PX**: Unilateral shock and strengthening, with a strategy of rolling long on the monthly spread. The supply - demand is tight due to factors such as the maintenance of Tianjin Petrochemical and the planned production of Sanfangxiang's PTA factory [8]. - **PTA**: Unilateral strengthening. Pay attention to the spread strategy of going long on PTA and shorting PF. The inventory pressure of polyester factories has been greatly relieved, and the overall operating rate is expected to continue to rise [8]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend turns strong, benefiting from the continuous rise in coal prices [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index showed a strong and volatile trend yesterday. The main 2510 contract closed at 1583.9 points, up 3.73%, with an increase of 455 lots; the second main 2512 contract closed at 1779.9 points, with an increase of 295 lots; the near - month 2508 contract closed at 2249.9 points, up 10 points, with a decrease of 1355 lots [9]. - In terms of spot freight rates, Evergreen and MSC plan to increase rates by $200/FEU in early August, while MSK will decrease rates by $100 - 200/FEU, and the PA Alliance's average quoted price will decrease by $200/FEU. Overall, freight rates in early August show signs of peaking, with the average static quoted price in week 32 around $3360/FEU [10]. - Fundamentally, the average weekly shipping capacity in August is 321,000 TEU/week. The number of undetermined voyages in September has decreased from 7 to 5. Without considering undetermined voyages, the average weekly shipping capacity in September has been revised up from 299,000 to 306,000 TEU/week. It is expected that the cargo volume in early August may remain resilient, and Christmas orders may be gradually shipped out in early August. There is a certain probability that the inflection point of market cargo volume will appear in mid - to - late August. The fundamental trading logic remains to go short on rallies. In the short term, capital - level games are the core driver. The EC2512 and far - month contracts have relatively low positions and relatively large increases. It is expected that the 2510 contract may rise first and then fall; strategies include holding the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions of Container Shipping Index Futures | Contract | Closing Price | Daily Increase | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2508 | 2,249.9 | 1.47% | - 1,355 | | EC2510 | 1,583.9 | 3.73% | + 455 | | EC2512 | 1,779.9 | 5.45% | + 295 | [1] 3.2 Freight Rate Index | Freight Rate Index | Current Value | Unit | Weekly Increase | Bi - weekly Increase | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Route | 2,400.50 | points | - 0.9% | - | | SCFIS: US West Route | 1,301.81 | points | 2.8% | - | | SCFI: European Route | 2,079 | $/TEU | - | - 1.0% | | SCFI: US West Route | 2,142 | $/FEU | - | - 2.4% | [1] 3.3 Spot Freight Rates - In early August, Evergreen and MSC plan to increase rates by $200/FEU, MSK will decrease rates by $100 - 200/FEU, and the PA Alliance's average quoted price will decrease by $200/FEU. The average static quoted price in week 32 is around $3360/FEU [10]. 3.4 Shipping Capacity - The average weekly shipping capacity in August is 321,000 TEU/week. The number of undetermined voyages in September has decreased from 7 to 5. Without considering undetermined voyages, the average weekly shipping capacity in September has been revised up from 299,000 to 306,000 TEU/week [11]. 3.5 Macro News - Xi Jinping met with European Council President Costa and European Commission President von der Leyen [8]. - The US withdrew from the Doha cease - fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas [8]. - The European Central Bank kept its three key interest rates unchanged, warning of a highly uncertain external environment, and President Lagarde did not rule out the possibility of future interest rate hikes [8]. - The EU passed a €93 billion counter - tariff plan against the US, which will take effect on August 7 if no agreement is reached [8].

2025 年 07 月 25 日 铅：国内总库存偏高，限制价格反弹 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16890 | 0.24% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2028.5 | 0.69% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 46419 | -23791 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 8180 | 2432 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 69992 | 7720 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 140725 | 2710 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -40 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -25.21 | 0.19 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -5 | 35 | 进口升 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core View - The report indicates that both silicon iron and manganese silicon are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations due to the upward shift in overseas mining companies' quotations [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For silicon iron, the 2509 contract closed at 5754, down 78 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 259,485 and an open interest of 169,545; the 2510 contract closed at 5750, down 64, with a trading volume of 36,465 and an open interest of 44,277. For manganese silicon, the 2509 contract closed at 5948, up 10, with a trading volume of 329,748 and an open interest of 325,554; the 2510 contract closed at 5948, up 26, with a trading volume of 33,069 and an open interest of 26,210 [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon iron (FeSi75 - B) in Inner Mongolia was 5500 yuan/ton; the price of silicon manganese (FeMn65Si17) in Inner Mongolia was 5680 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of manganese ore (Mn44 block) was 39.5 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.5 yuan/ton - degree; the price of small - sized semi - coke in Shenmu was 550 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Data**: The spot - 09 futures spread of silicon iron was - 254 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan/ton; the spot - 09 futures spread of manganese silicon was - 268 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread of silicon iron (2509 - 2601) was - 100 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton; the near - far month spread of manganese silicon (2509 - 2601) was - 72 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton. The cross - variety spread of manganese silicon 2509 - silicon iron 2509 was 194 yuan/ton, up 88 yuan/ton; the cross - variety spread of manganese silicon 2601 - silicon iron 2601 was 166 yuan/ton, up 94 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: On July 24, the price range of 72 silicon iron in different regions was 5400 - 5600 yuan/ton, and that of 75 was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 silicon iron was 1020 - 1040 dollars/ton (+20), and that of 75 was 1090 - 1110 dollars/ton (+10). The northern quotation of silicon manganese 6517 was 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton. A steel mill in Fujian set the price of silicon manganese at 5800 yuan/ton, up 354 yuan/ton from the early - June pricing [2]. - **Export Data**: In June 2025, the manganese ore exported through Port Hedland in Australia was 156,302 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 90.61% and a year - on - year increase of 51.49%. The total export volume in the first half of 2025 was 589,774 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.24% compared to 2024. In June, the exports were mainly redirected to China and Malaysia [3]. - **Quotation Information**: South32's September 2025 offer for South African semi - carbonate lumps (typical Mn36.9%) was 4.05 dollars/ton - degree, up 0.15 dollars/ton - degree month - on - month; the offer for Australian lumps (typical Mn42%) was 4.45 dollars/ton - degree, up 0.10 dollars/ton - degree month - on - month [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 0, and that of manganese silicon is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].

2025 年 07 月 25 日 锌：价格转弱 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 23015 | 0.17% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 2860 | 0.23% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 152003 | -21571 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 10757 | -2783 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 134935 | -2956 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 188309 | 327 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | -15 | 5 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -2.77 | 1.46 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents the market trends and forecasts of various commodities on July 25, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. Each commodity has its own unique trend influenced by factors such as supply - demand, macro - economic news, and policy changes [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate and decline, with a trend strength of 1 [2][7][9]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][7][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks a clear driving force, with prices in a state of oscillation. The trend strength is 0 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Prices are turning weak, and the trend strength is 0 [2][14][16]. - **Lead**: High domestic total inventory restricts price rebounds, and the trend strength is 0 [2][17][18]. - **Tin**: Prices are disturbed by floods in Wa State. The trend strength is - 1 [2][20][23]. - **Aluminum**: Short - term oscillation. Aluminum oxide prices are strengthening, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths are 0 for aluminum, 1 for aluminum oxide, and 0 for cast aluminum alloy [2][25][27]. - **Nickel**: Macro - sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits elasticity. The trend strength is 0. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][28][32]. Energy - related Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply - side disturbances intensify, and it may be strong in the short term, with a trend strength of 1 [2][33][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are being cleared, and the market shows resistance to decline. The trend strength is 0. Polysilicon is affected more by policy disturbances, and attention should be paid to the upside space, with a trend strength of 1 [2][37][39]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it oscillates strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [2][40][41]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are in a state of wide - range oscillation, with trend strengths of 0 for rebar and 0 for hot - rolled coil [2][43][46]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Overseas mining companies' quotation increases lead to wide - range oscillations, with trend strengths of 0 for both [2][47][49]. - **Coke**: After three rounds of price increases, it oscillates strongly, with a trend strength of 1. Coking coal has strengthened supply - policy expectation constraints and oscillates strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [2][51][53]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and it oscillates and stabilizes, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55][58]. Others - **Log**: Oscillates repeatedly [2][59].

2025年07月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：宏观情绪提振预期，现实限制弹性 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面决定弹性 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：供给端扰动加剧，短期或偏强 | 4 | | 工业硅：仓单去化，盘面表现抗跌 | 6 | | 多晶硅：政策扰动加强，关注上方空间 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 25 日 镍：宏观情绪提振预期，现实限制弹性 不锈钢：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面决定弹性 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 124,360 | 990 | 4,480 | 3,22 ...

【基本面跟踪】 2025 年 7 月 25 日 碳酸锂：供给端扰动加剧，短期或偏强 | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2509合约（收盘价） | 76,680 | 7,300 | 8,720 | 12,500 | 15,980 | 5,060 | | | | 2509合约（成交量） | 1,770,283 | 436,124 | 943,344 | 1,372,261 | 1,088,536 | 1,766,677 | | | | 2509合约（持仓量） | 436,727 | 74,673 | 73,051 | 113,044 | 93,163 | 413,319 | | | 盘面 | 2 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the overall industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have jointly drafted the "Amendment Draft of the Price Law of the People's Republic of China (Draft for Comment)" to address "involution - style" competition, with clear definitions of dumping, expanded scope, and new regulations on data - related price behavior [8]. - For the black sector, in the short - term (1 - 3 weeks), steel is in high - level oscillation, iron ore is under pressure, and coking coal is strong; in the medium - term (1 - 3 months), black commodities face correction pressure; in the long - term (1 - 3 quarters), the center of black commodities will rise again [9][10]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. "Today's Discovery" - The revised "Price Law" aims to address "involution - style" competition, with clearer rules on low - price dumping, expanded scope to include services, and new regulations on operators' use of data and algorithms [8]. 2. "Recommended by the Director" - **Black Sector**: - Short - term: Steel oscillates at a high level, iron ore is under pressure, and coking coal is strong. The logic is that coking coal supply has a production - cut expectation, policy stimulus is continuous, and there is a shortage of spot liquidity. Steel mills have a demand to replenish coking coal inventory. Iron ore supply is gradually increasing, and its price is over - valued [9][10]. - Medium - term: Black commodities face correction pressure due to the cooling of the "anti - involution" policy and high valuations, along with increased supply and potential spot liquidity surpluses [10]. - Long - term: The center of black commodities will rise as real estate destocking and new construction stabilize, and global manufacturing inventory replenishment boosts demand [10]. - Strategies: Gradually take profit on the 10 - 01 reverse spread of steel; hold the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore; pay attention to opportunities to narrow the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread [10]. 3. "Commodity Research Morning Report" - **Precious Metals**: Gold oscillates downward, and silver breaks through and rises. Gold trend intensity is 1, and silver trend intensity is 1 [14][19][21]. - **Base Metals**: - Copper lacks a clear driver and oscillates. Copper trend intensity is 0 [14][23][25]. - Zinc's price weakens. Zinc trend intensity is 0 [14][26][28]. - Lead's price rebound is restricted by high domestic inventory. Lead trend intensity is 0 [14][29][30]. - Tin's price is affected by floods in Wa State. Tin trend intensity is - 1 [14][32][35]. - Aluminum oscillates in the short - term, alumina's price strengthens, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Aluminum trend intensity is 0, alumina trend intensity is 1, and aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [14][37][39]. - Nickel is boosted by macro - sentiment but restricted by reality; stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin and determined by fundamentals in terms of elasticity. Nickel and stainless steel trend intensities are both 0 [14][40][44]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Carbonate lithium may be strong in the short - term due to increased supply - side disturbances. Carbonate lithium trend intensity is 1 [14][45][47]. - Industrial silicon's warehouse receipts are being cleared, and the market is resilient; polysilicon is affected by policy disturbances. Industrial silicon trend intensity is 0, and polysilicon trend intensity is 1 [14][49][51]. - Iron ore is supported by macro - expectations and oscillates strongly. Iron ore trend intensity is 1 [14][52][53]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil oscillate widely. Rebar and hot - rolled coil trend intensities are both 0 [14][55][58]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese oscillate widely due to rising overseas ore quotes. Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese trend intensities are both 0 [14][59][61]. - Coke's third - round price increase is implemented, and it oscillates strongly; coking coal is also strong due to supply - policy constraints. Coke and coking coal trend intensities are both 1 [14][63][65]. - Steam coal's daily consumption is recovering, and it oscillates and stabilizes. Steam coal trend intensity is 0 [14][67][70]. - Logs oscillate repeatedly [71].