Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The end - of - month and beginning - of - month significant reduction in supply by large - scale pig farms led to a rebound in spot prices as expected. However, the average weight of pigs is increasing again, the price difference between fat and standard pigs is weakening, and the overall supply increase in September is large. From September to October, the production capacity cycle and inventory cycle resonate, and market pressure is gradually emerging. It is expected that the spot price center will further decline, and the national average price will hit new lows. The enthusiasm for purchasing piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of pigs to be slaughtered in March - May. Attention should be paid to the driving force of the downward shift of the price center in March and May. There is an expectation of further policy regulation for the July contract, which is mainly strong in the short - term. Stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2511 contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,500 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The spot price in Henan is 13,230 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; in Sichuan, it is 12,950 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year; in Guangdong, it is 14,160 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the Live Pig 2511 contract is 13,275 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Live Pig 2601 contract is 13,745 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Live Pig 2603 contract is 13,045 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Live Pig 2511 contract is 38,413 lots, an increase of 8,046 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 81,062 lots, an increase of 2,009 lots from the previous day; the Live Pig 2601 contract has a trading volume of 14,187 lots, an increase of 1,557 lots, and an open interest of 54,865 lots, an increase of 765 lots; the Live Pig 2603 contract has a trading volume of 3,991 lots, a decrease of 516 lots, and an open interest of 38,157 lots, an increase of 915 lots [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the Live Pig 2511 contract is - 45 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the Live Pig 2601 contract is - 515 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the Live Pig 2603 contract is 185 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton year - on - year; the spread between the 11th and 1st contracts is - 470 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; the spread between the 1st and 3rd contracts is 700 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, with the range of values being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3] 3. Market Logic - As described in the core view, including factors such as supply changes, price trends, and policy expectations [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of pure benzene is volatile, and it will be weak in the fourth quarter [1] - The trend strength of pure benzene is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - In futures prices, BZ2603 was 6073, up 41 from the previous day; BZ2604 was 6055, up 29; BZ2605 was 6072, up 27. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as BZ2603 - BZ2604 increasing by 12 to 18 [1] - The paper - cargo prices N + 1 and N + 2 both increased by 60, reaching 6005 and 6015 respectively [1] - Shandong pure benzene price was 6035, up 30 from the previous day. The difference between Shandong pure benzene price and hydrogenated benzene price increased by 30 to 180, while the difference with East China pure benzene price decreased by 30 to 45 [1] - Pure benzene inventory in East China ports decreased by 1 to 13.4, and styrene inventory in East China ports increased by 6760 to 133690 [1] 3.2 News - As of September 15, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 13.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.0 tons (6.94%) and a year - on - year increase of 8.4 tons (168.00%). From September 8 - 14, arrivals were about 1.8 tons and pick - ups were about 2.8 tons [2] - As of September 15, 2025, the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports was 15.9 tons, a decrease of 1.75 tons (- 9.92%) from the previous period. The commercial inventory was 7.8 tons, a decrease of 0.9 tons (- 10.34%) [2] - On September 15, the non - long - term contract trading volume of Shandong pure benzene was about 1700 tons, with a self - pick - up price range of 6000 - 6010 yuan/ton and an average price of 6005 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - The spot negotiation price of pure benzene in East China was 5910 - 5950 yuan/ton (average 5930, up 20). The September lower transaction price was 5910 - 5960 yuan/ton (average 5935, up 25), the October lower was 5920 - 5970 yuan/ton (average 5945, up 35), and the November lower was 5930 - 5980 yuan/ton (average 5955, up 30) [2]

2025 年 9 月 17 日 商 品 研 究 碳酸锂：震荡运行，供给增量制约上方空间 | | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | | | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | | | | liuhongru@gtht.com | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | | | 2511合约（收盘价） | 73,180 | 500 | 280 | 560 | -13,720 | 13,400 | | | | 2511合约（成交量） | 500,267 | 17,477 | -91,408 | -120,174 | -368,544 | 478,477 | | | | 2511合约（持仓量） | 300,437 | -9,00 ...

2025 年 9 月 17 日 沥青：随油震荡，窄幅运行 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2510 | 元/吨 | 3,426 | 0.44% | 3,454 | 0.82% | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,411 | 0.53% | 3,440 | 0.85% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2510 | 手 | 12,611 | (3,611) | 21,222 | (1,636) | | | BU2511 | 手 | 162,489 | (41,821) | 234,581 | (6,096) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 65360 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of edible oils, including palm oil, is expected to remain relatively firm in 2025 and 2026 due to supply lagging behind demand growth [3]. - The prices of palm oil and soybean oil are affected by factors such as the support of US soybean oil and the results of China - US negotiations [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Trading Volume**: - Palm oil futures: The closing price of the main contract during the day was 9,482 yuan/ton, up 0.64%, and 9,524 yuan/ton at night, up 0.44%. The trading volume was 591,676 lots, an increase of 8,395 lots, and the open interest was 451,725 lots, an increase of 18,372 lots [2]. - Soybean oil futures: The closing price of the main contract during the day was 8,418 yuan/ton, up 0.50%, and 8,452 yuan/ton at night, up 0.40%. The trading volume was 297,595 lots, an increase of 30,189 lots, and the open interest was 597,730 lots, an increase of 1,298 lots [2]. - Rapeseed oil futures: The closing price of the main contract during the day was 10,053 yuan/ton, up 1.55%, and 10,055 yuan/ton at night, up 0.02%. The trading volume was 350,650 lots, an increase of 126,058 lots, and the open interest was 333,040 lots, an increase of 51,403 lots [2]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): The spot price was 9,400 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 80 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 82 yuan/ton [2]. - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): The spot price was 8,750 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was 332 yuan/ton [2]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): The spot price was 9,990 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 120 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 63 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: - The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures main contracts was 571 yuan/ton, compared with 478 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2]. - The spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures main contracts was - 1,064 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,046 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - **Supply - demand Outlook for Edible Oils**: Kenanga Research expects that in 2025, the supply of edible oils will lag behind long - term demand growth by 3% - 4%. In 2026, the supply is expected to increase by about 2% - 3% year - on - year but still fall short of the 3% - 4% demand increase, so edible oil prices will remain firm [3]. - **Brazil's Soybean Data**: - Brazil's soybean exports in September are expected to rise to 753 tons, and soybean meal exports are expected to be 219 tons [4]. - Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production forecast remains at 170.3 million tons, and the 2025 soybean export forecast remains at 109.5 million tons. The 2025 soybean crushing volume forecast is raised to 58.5 million tons, and the 2024/25 soybean meal production forecast is raised to 45.1 million tons, and the 2024/25 soybean oil production forecast is raised to 11.7 million tons [4]. - In July 2025, Brazilian factories processed 4.71 million tons of soybeans, produced 3.59 million tons of soybean meal and 950,000 tons of soybean oil. The ending stocks of soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil were 1,918 tons, 2.55 million tons and 530,000 tons respectively [4]. - **Shipping Data in September 2025**: In the second week of September 2025, Brazil shipped 2.7182 million tons of soybeans in 10 working days, with an average daily shipping volume of 271,800 tons, a 6.52% decrease compared to September last year; and shipped 1.1369 million tons of soybean meal, with an average daily shipping volume of 113,700 tons, a 31.95% increase compared to September last year [5]. - **Indian Oilseed Planting**: As of September 12, 2025, the total sown area of oilseeds in India was 18.881 million hectares, a decrease of 512,000 hectares compared to the same period last year. The sown area of soybeans decreased by 581,000 hectares to 12.043 million hectares [5]. - **EU's Oilseed Imports**: As of September 14, 2025, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/26 season were 520,000 tons, compared with 730,000 tons last year; soybean imports were 2.67 million tons, compared with 2.77 million tons last year; soybean meal imports were 3.76 million tons, compared with 3.94 million tons last year; and rapeseed imports were 630,000 tons, compared with 1.09 million tons last year [6]. - **EU's Oilseed Crushing**: In August 2025, the rapeseed crushing volume of EU 27 + UK was 1.8 million tons, higher than 1.348 million tons in July and 1.785 million tons in August 2024. The soybean crushing volume was 1.136 million tons, higher than 1.046 million tons in July and lower than 1.188 million tons in August 2024. The total oilseed crushing volume in August was 3.187 million tons, higher than 2.591 million tons in July and lower than 3.36 million tons in August 2024 [6]. - **Ukrainian Oilseed Exports**: Due to disputes over customs documents after a 10% tariff on rapeseed and soybean exports, Ukrainian rapeseed exports have been blocked for two consecutive weeks. From September 5 - 11, the rapeseed oil export volume dropped to 9,300 tons, compared with 129,000 tons a week ago. Ukrainian farmers may postpone rapeseed sales until November - December [7]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [8].

尿素：步入震荡格局，日内走势关注现货成交 | | 杨鈜汉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | | yanghonghan@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | 尿素基本面数据 | | | | | | | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 （元/吨） | 1,686 | 1,683 | 3 | | | | 结算价 （元/吨） | 1,691 | 1,679 | 1 2 | | | | 成交量 （手） | 129,472 | 166,237 | -36765 | | （01合约） | | 持仓量 （手） | 277,334 | 284,978 | -7644 | | | | 仓单数量 （吨） | 8,279 | 8,613 | -334 | | | | （万元） 成交额 | 437,832 | 558,324 | -120492 | | | | 山东地区基差 | -36 | -43 | 7 | | 基 | 差 | 丰 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The synthetic rubber market will operate in a short - term oscillation due to the intensification of the contradiction between fundamentals and macro - sentiment. The fundamental pressure has increased significantly, but macro - expectations provide support. The market presents a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with the supply growth rate higher than the demand growth rate, leading to an increase in inventory pressure for cis - butadiene rubber. The high processing profit on the cis - butadiene rubber disk is unsustainable, and the cost side of cis - butadiene rubber is also under pressure. However, there are expectations of a preventive interest rate cut by the Fed and long - term policy support from China's anti - involution policy, which support the market. Overall, the market will oscillate widely within the fundamental valuation range [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Synthetic Rubber Fundamental Data - **Futures Market (10 - contract)**: The closing price of the cis - butadiene rubber main contract decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 11,675 yuan/ton. The trading volume increased by 23,286 lots to 74,764 lots, the open interest decreased by 402 lots to 64,216 lots, and the trading volume increased by 137,965 ten - thousand yuan to 436,360 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber against the futures main contract increased by 30 to 25, and the monthly spread (BR10 - BR11) decreased by 5 to 35 [1]. - **Spot Market**: The price of North China cis - butadiene rubber (private) increased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,550 yuan/ton, the price of East China cis - butadiene rubber (private) remained unchanged at 11,650 yuan/ton, and the price of South China cis - butadiene rubber (private) remained unchanged at 11,650 yuan/ton. The market price of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber (delivery product) remained unchanged at 11,700 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (Model 1502) increased by 100 yuan/ton to 12,300 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (Model 1712) increased by 100 yuan/ton to 11,300 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of butadiene in Jiangsu increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,300 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price in Shandong increased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating rate of cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 1.22% to 68.7762%, the theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 12,028 yuan/ton, and the profit of cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged at - 128 yuan/ton [1]. b. Industry News - On September 15, the domestic butadiene market oscillated slightly. Downstream buyers maintained sporadic rigid demand, and poor transactions pressured suppliers' prices. Affected by the trend of downstream products in the afternoon, some offers were slightly pushed up, but downstream follow - up was less than expected, and the market showed some oscillations. The delivery price in the central Shandong region was around 9350 - 9450 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was around 9000 - 9100 yuan/ton [2]. c. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products of Guotai Junan Futures on September 17, 2025, covering multiple agricultural products such as palm oil, soybean oil, and corn [1]. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: Supported by U.S. soybean oil and macro - level factors [2]. - Soybean oil: U.S. soybeans continued to rise, and the outcome of China - U.S. negotiations should be monitored [2]. - Soybean meal: Due to optimistic trade sentiment, it is in a low - level oscillation [2]. - Soybean No.1: In oscillation [2]. - Corn: Operating in an oscillatory manner [2]. - Sugar: With a weak basis [2]. - Cotton: The market is focused on the listing of new cotton [2]. - Eggs: The peak season for spot sales is ending, and inventory remains high [2]. - Pigs: Policy expectations have materialized, but the weakness of the spot market is difficult to change [2]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,482 yuan/ton with a 0.64% increase, and the night - session was 9,524 yuan/ton with a 0.44% increase; soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,418 yuan/ton with a 0.50% increase, and the night - session was 8,452 yuan/ton with a 0.40% increase [5]. - Spot: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) was 9,400 yuan/ton with an 80 - yuan increase; first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) was 8,750 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase [5]. - Basis and Spread: Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was - 82 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 1,064 yuan/ton [5]. - **Macro and Industry News** - Kenanga Research predicted that edible oil prices, including palm oil, would remain firm in 2025 and 2026 due to supply lagging behind demand [6]. - Anec expected Brazil's soybean exports in September to reach 753 million tons and soybean meal exports to be 219 million tons [7]. - Abiove maintained Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production forecast at 170.3 million tons, and adjusted some production and export forecasts for soybean products [7]. - **Trend Intensity** - Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities were both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: DCE Soybean No.1 2511's daily - session closing price was 3,924 yuan/ton with a 0.46% decrease; DCE Soybean Meal 2601's daily - session closing price was 3,041 yuan/ton with a 0.33% decrease [12]. - Spot: In Shandong, soybean meal prices were between 3,020 - 3,040 yuan/ton, with some price adjustments compared to the previous day [12]. - Industry Data: The trading volume of soybean meal was 13.38 million tons per day, and the inventory was 110.85 million tons per week [12]. - **Macro and Industry News** - On September 16, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to optimistic sentiment about China - U.S. trade negotiations and uncertainty about U.S. soybean production [12]. - **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensities of soybean meal and soybean No.1 were both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [14]. Corn - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: C2511's daily - session closing price was 2,166 yuan/ton with a 0.55% decrease, and the night - session was 2,169 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase [16]. - Spot: The price at Jinzhou's平仓 was 2,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [16]. - Spread: The basis of the main 11 - contract was 134 yuan/ton [16]. - **Macro and Industry News** - Northern corn collection and port prices remained stable, and prices in different regions showed different trends [17]. - **Trend Intensity** - The corn trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [18]. Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: The main futures price was 5,547 yuan/ton with a 2 - yuan decrease [19]. - Spot: The mainstream spot price was 5,940 yuan/ton, unchanged [19]. - Basis and Spread: The mainstream spot basis was 393 yuan/ton with a 2 - yuan increase; the 15 - spread was 23 yuan/ton, unchanged [19]. - **Macro and Industry News** - India's monsoon precipitation increased again; Brazil's sugar exports decreased; Conab lowered the forecast of Brazil's 25/26 sugar production [19]. - In the domestic market, production, consumption, and import forecasts for different seasons were provided, and there were expectations of a decrease in sucrose yield and an increase in production costs in Guangxi [20]. - In the international market, ISO predicted a global sugar supply shortage in the 25/26 and 24/25 seasons [21]. - **Trend Intensity** - The sugar trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [22]. Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: CF2601's daily - session closing price was 13,895 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase, and the night - session was 13,940 yuan/ton with a 0.32% increase [23]. - Spot: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,162 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan increase [23]. - Spread: The CF1 - 5 spread was 35 yuan/ton, unchanged [23]. - **Macro and Industry News** - The domestic cotton spot market was quiet, waiting for new cotton to be listed; the cotton textile market was lackluster, with slow - moving prices [24]. - ICE cotton futures rose by over 1%, following the overall strength of the commodity market, and the market was watching the Fed's interest - rate decision [24]. - **Trend Intensity** - The cotton trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [27]. Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: Egg 2510's closing price was 3,090 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.99% decrease; Egg 2601's closing price was 3,378 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.03% increase [29]. - Spot: The price of eggs in Liaoning was 3.60 yuan/jin, up from the previous day [29]. - Spread: The Egg 10 - 1 spread was - 288 yuan, down from the previous day [29]. - **Trend Intensity** - The egg trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [29]. Pigs - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: Pig 2511's price was 13,275 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan increase; Pig 2601's price was 13,745 yuan/ton with a 55 - yuan increase [32]. - Spot: The price of pigs in Henan was 13,230 yuan/ton with a 100 - yuan decrease [32]. - Spread: The Pig 2511 basis was - 45 yuan/ton with a 120 - yuan decrease; the Pig 11 - 1 spread was - 470 yuan/ton with a 35 - yuan decrease [32]. - **Market Logic** - The supply in September was large, and the market pressure was increasing. The spot price was expected to decline further. Attention should be paid to the downward trend of the central price in March and May. The short - term LH2511 contract had a support level of 12,500 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 13,500 yuan/ton [34]. - **Trend Intensity** - The pig trend intensity was - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [33]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking** - Futures: PK510's closing price was 7,816 yuan/ton with a 0.10% increase; PK511's closing price was 7,796 yuan/ton with a 0.57% increase [36]. - Spot: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 8,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Henan Baisha common peanuts was 8,100 yuan/ton with a 160 - yuan decrease [36]. - Spread: The basis of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 384 yuan/ton; the 10 - 11 inter - period spread was 20 yuan/ton [36]. - **Spot Market Focus** - In different regions, new peanuts were gradually being listed, with small trading volumes and generally stable prices [37]. - **Trend Intensity** - The peanut trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [38].

Report Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Expected to fluctuate widely with repeated expectations [2][4] - Rebar: Expected to oscillate strongly due to the resurgence of anti - involution sentiment [2][7] - Hot - rolled coil: Expected to oscillate strongly due to the resurgence of anti - involution sentiment [2][8] - Ferrosilicon: Expected to oscillate strongly boosted by macro - sentiment [2][13] - Silicomanganese: Expected to oscillate strongly boosted by macro - sentiment [2][13] - Coke: Expected to fluctuate widely with repeated expectations [2][16] - Coking coal: Expected to fluctuate widely with repeated expectations [2][17] - Logs: Expected to oscillate repeatedly [2][19] Core Views - The prices of various black - series commodities in the futures market are affected by factors such as fundamentals, macro - economic data, and industry news, showing different trends of wide - range fluctuations, strong oscillations, or repeated oscillations [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 803.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan or 0.94%. The I2601 contract had a position of 532,373 lots, a decrease of 3,458 lots. Spot prices of imported and some domestic ores increased. The basis and spreads showed certain changes [4] - **News**: On August 31st, M2 balance was 331.98 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; M1 balance was 111.23 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6% [4] - **Trend Strength**: - 1 [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3,069 yuan/ton and 3,433 yuan/ton, up 1.05% and 1.18% respectively. Trading volumes, positions, and position changes were given. Spot prices in various regions increased to different extents. Basis and spreads also changed [8] - **News**: From January to August 2025, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.2% year - on - year; fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5%; retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6%. In August, China's crude steel production was 7737000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. Other production, inventory, and trade data were also provided [9][11] - **Trend Strength**: 1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [12] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts were given. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased, and the prices of related raw materials also changed. Basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads showed different trends [13] - **News**: On September 16th, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions were reported. A steel mill in Shandong finalized the purchase price of 75B ferrosilicon. South Korea's manganese ore imports in August decreased significantly [13][14] - **Trend Strength**: 1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions changed. Basis and spreads also showed certain changes [17] - **News**: An important article by Xi Jinping will be published in the 18th issue of Qiushi magazine on September 16th [17] - **Trend Strength**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [17] Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts showed different trends of increase, decrease, or stability. Spot prices of different types of logs in various regions were mostly stable, with only a few showing slight increases [20] - **News**: On August 31st, M2 balance was 331.98 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; M1 balance was 111.23 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6% [22] - **Trend Strength**: 0 [22]

2025 年 9 月 17 日 原油：修复性反弹延续，月差同步走强 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan021151@gtjas.com 【国际原油】 WTI10 月原油期货收涨 1.22 美元/桶，涨幅 1.93%，报 64.52 美元/桶；布伦特 11 月原油期货 收涨 1.03 美元/桶，涨幅 1.53%，报 68.47 美元/桶；SC2511 原油期货收涨 7.70 元/桶，涨幅 1.56%， 报 501.20 元/桶。 1、全球基准原油价格动态 | 指标 | 9 月 12 日 | 单位 | 月环比变 | 市场情况分析 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 价格 | | 化 | | | Dated | 67.74 | $/b | 1.44 | 北海原油受欧洲炼厂秋季检修备货需求支撑，但 | | Brent | | | | 全球经济放缓担忧限制涨幅 | | WTI | 62.69 | $/b | -1.28 | 美国页岩油产量回升叠加库欣库存增加，内陆贴 | | Cushing | | | | 水持续扩大 | | NYH RBOB | ...