Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current period is the off - season for consumption, with limited downstream digestion capacity. Although large - scale farms have not increased supply, some small - scale farmers are more willing to sell, leading to a rapid decline in spot prices. The market expects prices to rise from late July to early August, which may cause more concentrated sales and keep the spot market weak. The macro sentiment is strong recently, but the premium on the futures market has increased, and hedging profits have risen significantly. Piglet purchases will enter the off - season in August, and the 03 contract will enter the piglet pricing period, where production capacity and cost logic may have an impact. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 14,230 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; Sichuan's is 13,650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; and Guangdong's is 15,440 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton [4] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the生猪2509 contract is 14,365 yuan/ton, down 225 yuan/ton year - on - year; the生猪2511 contract is 14,210 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton; and the生猪2601 contract is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton [4] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the生猪2509 contract is 79,187 lots, down 42,372 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 62,464 lots, down 4,839 lots; the生猪2511 contract has a trading volume of 21,662 lots, down 22,162 lots, and an open interest of 46,374 lots, down 732 lots; the生猪2601 contract has a trading volume of 27,110 lots, down 22,001 lots, and an open interest of 39,822 lots, up 1,068 lots [4] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the生猪2509 contract is - 135 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton year - on - year; the生猪2511 contract's basis is 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the生猪2601 contract's basis is - 320 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the 9 - 11 spread is 155 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton; and the 11 - 1 spread is - 340 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [- 2,2]. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the sugar industry is bullish sentiment [1] Core Viewpoints - The global sugar market in the 24/25 season is expected to face a supply shortage, and the domestic market also has a supply - demand gap, but the specific situation varies by region [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The raw sugar price is 16.57 cents per pound, with a year - on - year increase of 0.33; the mainstream spot price is 6,030 yuan per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 10; the futures main contract price is 5,866 yuan per ton, a year - on - year increase of 32. The 91 spread is 198 yuan per ton, a year - on - year increase of 20; the 15 spread is 53 yuan per ton, a year - on - year increase of 2; the mainstream spot basis is 164 yuan per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 42 [1] Macro and Industry News - Pakistan has approved the import of 500,000 tons of sugar; the sugarcane crushing progress in central - southern Brazil is still slow, but the MIX is significantly higher year - on - year; the monsoon precipitation in India is higher than the long - period average (LPA); Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar in June, a 5% year - on - year increase; China imported 420,000 tons of sugar in June [1] Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season will be 11.16 million tons, consumption will be 15.8 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons; in the 25/26 season, production will be 11.2 million tons, consumption will be 15.9 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons. As of the end of May in the 24/25 season, the national sugar production was 11.16 million tons (+1.2 million tons), cumulative sales were 8.11 million tons (+1.52 million tons), and the cumulative sales rate was 72.7%. As of the end of June, the 24/25 season imports were 2.51 million tons (-650,000 tons) [2] International Market - ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season (previously a shortage of 4.88 million tons). As of July 1 in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in central - southern Brazil decreased by 14 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 12.25 million tons (-2.04 million tons), and the cumulative MIX was 51.02%, a 2.33 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. As of May 15 in the 24/25 season, India's sugar production was 25.74 million tons (-5.8 million tons), and Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 10.08 million tons (+1.27 million tons) [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is 0, indicating a neutral stance [4]

2025 年 7 月 25 日 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu025832@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | JM2509 | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 漆跌(元/吨) | 漆跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 1198.5 | 63 | 5.55% | | | | J2509 | 1735 | 27.5 | 1.61% | | 期货价格 | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2509 | 2883448 | 463313 | 53371 | | | | J2509 | 81783 | 38141 | -209 | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 昨日价格(元/吨) 1400 | 前日价格(元/吨) 1380 | 漆跌(元/吨) 20 | | | 焦煤 | 全泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 1029 | 1029 | 0 | | | | 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1449 | 1449 | 0 | | | | 峰景折人民币 | 1543 | 1545 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On July 24, 2025, all the current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures rose, with IF up 0.71%, IH up 0.49%, IC up 1.61%, and IM up 1.6% [1] - On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures declined, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF decreased by 16,976 lots, IH by 13,034 lots, IC by 9,753 lots, and IM by 6,634 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF increased by 2,311 lots, IH by 135 lots, IC by 1,553 lots, and IM by 35 lots [2] - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The A - share market had a good performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.21%, the ChiNext Index up 1.5%, and the North 50 up 1.1%. The A - share market turnover was 1.87 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous day's 1.9 trillion yuan [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures Data - **IF Contracts**: IF2508 closed at 4,147 with a 0.71% increase, a basis of - 2.04, a turnover of 37.62 billion yuan, a trading volume of 30,340 lots (down 1,946 lots), and a position of 47,426 lots (up 357 lots); IF2509 closed at 4,141.2 with a 0.76% increase, a basis of - 7.84, a turnover of 80.85 billion yuan, a trading volume of 65,298 lots (down 10,716 lots), and a position of 163,125 lots (up 1,443 lots); IF2512 closed at 4,111.8 with a 0.78% increase, a basis of - 37.24, a turnover of 17.36 billion yuan, a trading volume of 14,115 lots (down 3,732 lots), and a position of 53,553 lots (down 269 lots); IF2603 closed at 4,083.4 with a 0.78% increase, a basis of - 65.64, a turnover of 5.35 billion yuan, a trading volume of 4,380 lots (down 582 lots), and a position of 7,264 lots (up 780 lots) [1] - **IH Contracts**: IH2508 closed at 2,815.4 with a 0.49% increase, a basis of 2.96, a turnover of 1.077 billion yuan, a trading volume of 12,773 lots (down 3,448 lots), and a position of 20,633 lots (down 224 lots); IH2509 closed at 2,816.6 with a 0.50% increase, a basis of 4.16, a turnover of 2.894 billion yuan, a trading volume of 34,309 lots (down 8,089 lots), and a position of 63,790 lots (up 95 lots); IH2512 closed at 2,818 with a 0.49% increase, a basis of 5.56, a turnover of 442 million yuan, a trading volume of 5,242 lots (down 1,496 lots), and a position of 14,530 lots (up 95 lots); IH2603 closed at 2,818 with a 0.43% increase, a basis of 5.56, a turnover of 128 million yuan, a trading volume of 1,518 lots (down 1 lot), and a position of 1,938 lots (up 169 lots) [1] - **IC Contracts**: IC2508 closed at 6,269.6 with a 1.61% increase, a basis of - 24, a turnover of 3.22 billion yuan, a trading volume of 25,848 lots (down 1,438 lots), and a position of 53,361 lots (up 1,361 lots); IC2509 closed at 6,226 with a 1.72% increase, a basis of - 67.6, a turnover of 6.096 billion yuan, a trading volume of 49,292 lots (down 5,044 lots), and a position of 109,680 lots (up 284 lots); IC2512 closed at 6,104.6 with a 1.79% increase, a basis of - 189, a turnover of 1.802 billion yuan, a trading volume of 14,865 lots (down 2,494 lots), and a position of 57,871 lots (down 610 lots); IC2603 closed at 5,997.8 with a 1.95% increase, a basis of - 295.8, a turnover of 650 million yuan, a trading volume of 5,463 lots (down 777 lots), and a position of 8,877 lots (up 518 lots) [1] - **IM Contracts**: IM2508 closed at 6,675.8 with a 1.60% increase, a basis of - 25.32, a turnover of 5.751 billion yuan, a trading volume of 43,342 lots (up 960 lots), and a position of 64,427 lots (down 557 lots); IM2509 closed at 6,618.6 with a 1.84% increase, a basis of - 82.52, a turnover of 16.3 billion yuan, a trading volume of 124,051 lots (down 7,313 lots), and a position of 181,457 lots (up 72,061 lots); IM2512 closed at 6,435.4 with a 1.88% increase, a basis of - 265.72, a turnover of 3.716 billion yuan, a trading volume of 29,081 lots (down 610 lots), and a position of 79,069 lots (up 96 lots); IM2603 closed at 6,273.2 with a 1.86% increase, a basis of - 427.92, a turnover of 1.076 billion yuan, a trading volume of 8,632 lots (up 329 lots), and a position of 13,360 lots (up 1,094 lots) [1] Positions of the Top 20 Futures Members - **IF Contracts**: For IF2508, long positions increased by 197 lots, and short positions increased by 808 lots with a net short - position change of 2,370 lots; for IF2509, long positions decreased by 108 lots with a net long - position change of - 645 lots, and short positions increased by 1,821 lots; for IF2512, long positions decreased by 734 lots, and short positions decreased by 259 lots [5] - **IH Contracts**: For IH2508 and IH2509, long positions decreased by 164 lots with a net long - position change of - 62 lots, and short positions increased by 171 lots; for IH2509, long positions increased by 77 lots, and short positions increased by 345 lots; for IH2512, long positions increased by 25 lots, and short positions increased by 231 lots with a net short - position change of 747 lots [5] - **IC Contracts**: For IC2508, long positions increased by 778 lots, and short positions increased by 1,333 lots; for IC2509, long positions decreased by 1,091 lots with a net long - position change of - 434 lots, and short positions increased by 3 lots with a net short - position change of 996 lots; for IC2512, long positions decreased by 121 lots, and short positions decreased by 340 lots [5] - **IM Contracts**: For IM2508, long positions decreased by 533 lots with a net long - position change of - 1,886 lots, and short positions increased by 414 lots; for IM2509, long positions decreased by 560 lots, and short positions decreased by 904 lots with a net short - position change of - 715 lots; for IM2512, long positions decreased by 793 lots, and short positions decreased by 225 lots [5] Important Drivers - The Chinese President met with the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission, emphasizing the importance of China - EU cooperation [6] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a public consultation on the draft amendment to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China, aiming to clarify the standards for identifying improper price behaviors [6] - The A - share market had a good performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing above 3,600 points for the first time since January 2022, and the ChiNext Index leading the gains. Nearly 4,400 stocks rose, and the short - term sentiment and the index both showed signs of recovery [6]

Report Overview - Date: July 25, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products - Report Focus: Analysis of various agricultural product futures including palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, etc. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - Palm oil: Boosted by the macro - environment, but beware of sentiment reversal [2][4] - Soybean oil: Pay attention to Sino - US trade progress, relatively weak among varieties [2][4] - Soybean meal: US soybeans rose slightly, Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate [2][10] - Soybean: Fluctuating [2][10] - Corn: Focus on the spot market [2][13] - Sugar: Bullish sentiment [2][18] - Cotton: Fluctuate following the commodity market sentiment [2][23] - Eggs: Peak season arrives first, culling sentiment declines [2][29] - Pigs: Reverse spread structure formed [2][31] - Peanuts: There is support at the bottom [2][37] 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil's day - trading closing price was 9,104 yuan/ton with a 1.22% increase, and night - trading was 9,016 yuan/ton with a - 0.97% change. Soybean oil's day - trading was 8,166 yuan/ton with a 1.14% increase, and night - trading was 8,142 yuan/ton with a - 0.29% change. Spot prices of palm oil and soybean oil in Guangdong both increased by 50 yuan/ton [4] - **News**: Malaysia's MPOB expects 2025 crude palm oil production to reach 19.5 million tons and exports to reach 17 million tons. Indonesia's GAPKI predicts 2025 palm oil exports to drop to 28 million tons while production rises to 50 million tons [5][7] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean meal 2509's day - trading closed at 3,025 yuan/ton with a - 2.29% change, and night - trading was 3,029 yuan/ton with a - 0.39% change. DCE soybean 2509's day - trading was 4,224 yuan/ton with a - 0.12% change, and night - trading was 4,221 yuan/ton with a + 0.36% change [10] - **News**: On July 24, CBOT soybean futures mostly closed higher, driven by technical buying and trade hopes. A Chinese buyer signed a 30,000 - ton Argentine soybean meal import agreement, causing CBOT soybean meal prices to fall [9][10][12] Corn - **Fundamentals**: C2509's day - trading closed at 2,321 yuan/ton with a - 0.17% change, and night - trading was 2,314 yuan/ton with a - 0.30% change. C2511's day - trading was 2,274 yuan/ton with a - 0.26% change, and night - trading was 2,265 yuan/ton with a - 0.40% change [13] - **News**: Northern corn collection port prices were stable, and prices in Northeast China and North China showed different trends. Imported grains like sorghum and barley also had corresponding price quotes [14] Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The original sugar price was 16.57 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 6,030 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract price was 5,866 yuan/ton [18] - **News**: Pakistan approved the import of 500,000 tons of sugar. Brazil's central - southern region's sugarcane crushing progress was slow, but the MIX increased significantly. ISO predicted a 24/25 global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons [18][20] Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2509's day - trading closed at 14,160 yuan/ton with a - 0.14% change, and night - trading was 14,225 yuan/ton with a 0.46% change. CY2509's day - trading was 20,360 yuan/ton with a 0.05% change, and night - trading was 20,425 yuan/ton with a 0.32% change [23] - **News**: The cotton spot basis was generally stable, new offers increased, and the cotton textile market was weak with slow sales and inventory accumulation [24] Eggs - **Fundamentals**: Egg 2508 closed at 3,562 yuan/500 kg with a - 1.25% change, and Egg 2510 closed at 3,399 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.29% change [29] - **News**: The peak season for eggs has arrived, and the culling sentiment has declined [29] Pigs - **Fundamentals**: Henan's spot price was 14,230 yuan/ton, Sichuan's was 13,650 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's was 15,440 yuan/ton. Futures prices for different contracts also showed corresponding changes [33] - **News**: In the short - term, the LH2509 contract has a support level of 13,500 yuan/ton and a resistance level of 15,000 yuan/ton. The market is in a consumption off - season, and the spot price is weak [35] Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: PK510 closed at 8,130 yuan/ton with a - 0.15% change, and PK511 closed at 7,990 yuan/ton with a 0.15% change [37] - **News**: The peanut spot market in Henan was mainly for inventory trading, and new peanuts in some areas were expected to be on the market in about 20 days [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide industry - wide investment ratings. 2. Core Views - The report covers multiple commodities in the black series, with different outlooks for each. Iron ore is expected to show a relatively strong oscillation supported by macro - expectations; rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to have wide - range oscillations; silicon iron and manganese silicon are expected to have wide - range oscillations due to the upward shift of overseas miners' quotes; coke is expected to be oscillating strongly after the third price increase; coking coal is expected to be oscillating strongly due to strengthened supply policy expectations; thermal coal is expected to stabilize after the daily consumption recovers; and logs are expected to have repeated oscillations [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The previous day's futures closing price was 811.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.12%. The previous day's position was 562,835 lots, a decrease of 17,104 lots. Among spot prices, PB (61.5%) increased by 1.0 yuan/ton, while others remained unchanged [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China (Solicitation of Comments)" [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Position Data**: For rebar RB2510, the closing price was 3,294 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton with a gain of 0.34%. For hot - rolled coil HC2510, the closing price was 3,456 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton with a gain of 0.35%. In terms of spot prices, some regions' prices increased, while others remained unchanged or decreased [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 24, the weekly data from Steel Union showed that in terms of production, rebar increased by 2.9 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 3.65 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 1.22 tons. In terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 4.62 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 2.25 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 1.16 tons. In terms of apparent demand, rebar increased by 10.41 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 8.55 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 1.98 tons. In mid - July 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel increased compared to the previous period. On July 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the price law amendment draft [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Price and Position Data**: For silicon iron 2509, the closing price was 5754 yuan/ton, down 78 yuan/ton. For manganese silicon 2509, the closing price was 5948 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. Among spot prices, silicon manganese: FeMn65Si17: Inner Mongolia decreased by 70.0 yuan/ton, and manganese ore: Mn44 block decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton - degree [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 24, the prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions were reported. A steel mill in Fujian set the silicon manganese price at 5800 yuan/ton. The export volume of manganese ore from Australia's Port Hedland in June 2025 increased compared to the previous month and the same period last year, but the total export volume in the first half of the year decreased compared to the same period in 2024. South32's September 2025 quotes for South African semi - carbonate blocks and Australian blocks increased compared to the previous month [12][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0, indicating a neutral trend [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position Data**: For coking coal JM2509, the closing price was 1198.5 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton with a gain of 5.55%. For coke J2509, the closing price was 1735 yuan/ton, up 27.5 yuan/ton with a gain of 1.61%. Among spot prices, some coking coal and coke prices increased [15]. - **Price and Position Situation**: The prices of coking coal in northern ports were reported, and the CCI metallurgical coal index on July 24 showed price changes. In terms of positions, on July 24, for the coking coal JM2509 contract, long positions increased by 44,538 lots, and short positions increased by 26,271 lots. For the coke J2509 contract, long positions decreased by 907 lots, and short positions increased by 164 lots [15][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [17]. Thermal Coal - **Price and Position Data**: The previous day's trading of the thermal coal ZC2507 contract had no transactions. The previous opening price was 931.6000 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6000 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840.0000 yuan/ton, and it closed at 840.0000 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton compared to the previous settlement price, with 18 lots traded and 0 lots held [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The prices of southern port's imported thermal coal and domestic thermal coal in production areas were reported. On July 24, for the thermal coal ZC2507 contract, long positions decreased by 0 lots, and short positions decreased by 0 lots [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [22]. Logs - **Price and Position Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log contracts on different days were reported, along with price changes of various log and wood - square spot markets [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 24, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China (Solicitation of Comments)" [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [26].

Group 1: Report Core Information - Report title: "LPG: Supported by Strong External Market, Domestic Market Still Has Room for Repair" [1] - Date: July 25, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Xinchao [1] - Investment consulting qualification number: Z0020238 [1] - Email: chenxinchao@gtht.com [1] Group 2: Fundamental Tracking Futures - PG2509 yesterday's closing price was 4,023 with a daily increase of 1.41%, and night - session closing price was 4,037 with a night - session increase of 0.35%. Its yesterday's trading volume was 100,180 (a decrease of 1,582 from the previous day), and positions were 88,522 (a decrease of 3,742 from the previous day) [1] - PG2510 yesterday's closing price was 4,456 with a daily increase of 1.48%, and night - session closing price was 4,461 with a night - session increase of 0.11%. Its yesterday's trading volume was 23,707 (an increase of 3,001 from the previous day), and positions were 54,714 (an increase of 160 from the previous day) [1] Spreads - Yesterday, the spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 09 contract was 507, compared with 583 the day before [1] - Yesterday, the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 09 contract was 527, compared with 633 the day before [1] Industrial Chain Important Price Data - This week, the PDH operating rate was 73.1%, up from 71.8% last week [1] - This week, the MTBE operating rate was 69.0%, up from 67.6% last week [1] - This week, the alkylation operating rate was 47.5%, up from 45.9% last week [1] Group 3: Trend Intensity - LPG trend intensity is 0, with the range of values in the [-2, 2] interval for integers. The classification of strength levels is as follows: weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, strong, where -2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [6] Group 4: Market Information Saudi CP Expectations - On July 23, 2025, the August Saudi CP expectation for propane was 530 dollars/ton, up 18 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; for butane, it was 510 dollars/ton, up 18 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [8] - The September Saudi CP expectation for propane was 535 dollars/ton, up 19 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; for butane, it was 515 dollars/ton, up 19 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [8] Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple PDH device maintenance plans from various companies are listed, including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., with different start times and some with undetermined end times [7] Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple domestic liquefied gas factory device maintenance plans are listed, including those from Shandong - based companies like Shengli Heavy Oil Plant, Haike Ruilin, etc., with details of normal production volume, loss volume, start time, end time, and maintenance duration [9]

I. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. II. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the market analysis of industrial silicon and polysilicon, covering aspects such as fundamental data, macro and industry news, and trend strength. For industrial silicon, it shows characteristics of warehouse receipt de - stocking and a resilient performance in the futures market. For polysilicon, there is increasing policy interference, and the upside potential should be noted [2]. III. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Market**: The Si2509 closing price is 9,690 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,172,879 lots and a position of 336,274 lots. The PS2509 closing price is 53,765 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,123,795 lots and a position of 172,564 lots. There are also data on spreads and cross - period costs for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon has different spot premiums and discounts against different benchmarks (e.g., +470 yuan/ton against East China Si5530), and polysilicon has a spot premium and discount of - 7740 yuan/ton against N - type re - investment [2]. - **Price**: The price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 is 10,100 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 10,300 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - investment material is 46,000 yuan/ton. There are also price data for related products in the polysilicon (photovoltaic) and other industries [2]. - **Profit**: Silicon factory profits in Xinjiang and Yunnan are - 1,511 yuan/ton and - 3,384 yuan/ton respectively for the new standard 553. Polysilicon enterprise profit is - 18.1 yuan/kg, and there are profit data for DMC and ADC12 enterprises [2]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 53.5 million tons, enterprise inventory is 17.8 million tons, and industry inventory is 71.3 million tons. Polysilicon's factory inventory is 24.3 million tons [2]. - **Raw Material Cost**: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. are provided, with price changes over different time periods [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - The 21.6MW centralized photovoltaic power generation project of Dongfang Hope Zhundong Industrial Park's thermal power plant has been officially connected to the grid. It can generate over 31 million kWh of electricity annually, replace about 9,400 tons of standard coal, and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by over 25,000 tons, contributing to the regional green power supply and the "dual - carbon" goal [3][4]. 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1, indicating different market outlooks for the two [4].

2025年07月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡回落 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：突破上行 | 2 | | 铜：缺乏明确驱动，价格震荡 | 4 | | 锌：价格转弱 | 6 | | 铅：国内总库存偏高，限制价格反弹 | 8 | | 锡：佤邦洪灾扰动价格 | 9 | | 铝：短期震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：价格走强 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：宏观情绪提振预期，现实限制弹性 | 13 | | 不锈钢：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面决定弹性 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 25 日 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收 ...

Report Date - The report is dated July 24, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoint - Due to the high positive skew percentile of stock index options, a bullish call spread strategy can be considered [2] Data Summary Underlying Market Statistics - The closing prices of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, and CSI 1000 Index are 2812.44, 4149.04, and 6701.12 respectively, with increases of 11.24, 29.27, and 93.90 [3] - The trading volumes of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, and CSI 1000 Index are 60.28 billion, 319.63 billion, and 285.42 billion hands respectively, with changes of -7.65 billion, 19.13 billion, and -8.69 billion hands [3] Option Market Statistics - The trading volumes of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Options, CSI 300 Index Options, and CSI 1000 Index Options are 36,748, 87,017, and 196,037 respectively, with changes of -18,679, -46,300, and -29,170 [3] - The open interests of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Options, CSI 300 Index Options, and CSI 1000 Index Options are 62,312, 173,462, and 232,248 respectively, with changes of 2,593, 6,427, and 6,805 [3] Option Volatility Statistics - The ATM - IV of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Options, CSI 300 Index Options, and CSI 1000 Index Options are 16.65%, 16.55%, and 20.21% respectively, with changes of 0.21%, -0.11%, and 0.91% [6] - The Skew of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Options, CSI 300 Index Options, and CSI 1000 Index Options are 16.39%, 14.22%, and 7.27% respectively, with changes of 0.57%, 5.34%, and 1.49% [6]