标:安安期货客户中的专业投资者，请勿同读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本内容不拘成具体业务的排价，亦不应被视为任何投资、法律、会计或税务建议，且本公司不会因装放人以到 体内容而规具为客户。本内容的信息来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准朝性、完整性及未来变更的可能往不作任何保证。请您根据自身的风险承受微力作出投资决定并自主承担 投资风险、不应凭借本内容进行具体操作、本公司不对目使用本内容而造成的损失承担任何责任、除非劳有说职。本公司拥有本内容的组织和/流英地相关知识产权。 法坚本公司事先 书面许可。任何单位或个人不得以任何方式复制、转载、引用、刊登、发表、发行、修改、翻译此报告的全部或部分内容。 | 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 2025/9/16 | 李先飞 | 王蓉 | 刘雨萱 | Z0012691 | Z0020476 | Z0002529 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixi ...

期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025年09月16日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：冶炼端矛盾并不凸显，关注矿端消息面风险 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：长短线逻辑博弈，钢价或震荡运行 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：远期需求或超预期，震荡运行 | 4 | | 工业硅："反内卷"情绪再次发酵 | 6 | | 多晶硅：情绪重燃，盘面或继续冲高 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025 年 9 月 16 日 镍：冶炼端矛盾并不凸显，关注矿端消息面风险 不锈钢：长短线逻辑博弈，钢价或震荡运行 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,980 | 1,360 | 670 | 280 | -360 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for p-xylene (PX), purified terephthalic acid (PTA) are short - term rebound and medium - term weakness; for monoethylene glycol (MEG), it is 1 - 5 spread reverse arbitrage [1] Group 2: Core Views - PX, PTA, and MEG are expected to have short - term rebounds but remain weak in the medium term. For PX and PTA, 11 - 01 positive spreads should be held and 1 - 5 reverse spreads should be taken. For PX, PXN compression positions should be stopped for profit below $220. For PTA, 01/05 contract PTA processing fees should be shorted on rebounds. MEG's valuation may recover in the short term but is weak in the medium term, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads are recommended [1][8][10][11] Group 3: Market Data Summary Futures - PX主力昨日收盘价6752, up 6712 with a 0.60% increase; PTA主力4672, up 24 with a 0.52% increase; MEG主力4288, up 16 with a 0.37% increase; PF主力6342, up 10 with a 0.16% increase; SC主力489.3, up 14 with a 2.95% increase [2] Spreads - PX11 - 1 spread yesterday's closing price was 46, unchanged; PTA11 - 1 was - 18, unchanged; MEG1 - 5 was - 45, up 2; PF11 - 12 was 16, down 2; SC11 - 12 was 1.6, up 1.7 [2] Spot - PX CFR China was $835.67/ton yesterday, up $3.67; PTA East China was 4610 yuan/ton, up 45; MEG spot was 4377 yuan/ton, down 1; Naphtha MOPJ was $608.5/ton, up 10; Dated Brent was $67.6/barrel, down 0.14 [2] Spot Processing Fees - PX - naphtha spread was $232.83 yesterday, down 1.5; PTA processing fee was 107.46 yuan/ton, down 16.52; Short - fiber processing fee was 239.06 yuan/ton, up 2.85; Bottle - chip processing fee was 82.22 yuan/ton, up 27.77; MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread was - 6.01, unchanged [2] Group 4: Market Dynamics Summary PX - Asian PX increased by $3.67/ton to $835.67/ton (CFR Unv1/China) and $814.67/ton (FOB Korea). A Chinese end - user said October demand is low. South Korea's August PX exports decreased 16.4% year - on - year to 426,317 tons but increased 4.7% from July. Hanwha Total shut its 1.2 million tons/year PX line in August for maintenance until end - September. Exports to China and Unv1 in August decreased 12.1% and 19% respectively compared to 2024, and exports to the US dropped to zero due to tariffs. Exports to Unv1 in August more than doubled month - on - month to 52,428 tons. South Korea's January - July exports decreased 0.36% year - on - year to 2.69 million tons. On September 15, PX price rose, with October and November Asian spot trades [3][4] PTA - On September 15, PTA spot price rose to 4600 yuan/ton, with a mainstream basis of 01 - 80, a monthly average price of 4634.55 yuan/ton, and a monthly settlement price of 4680 yuan/ton [5] MEG - On September 15, MEG spot prices were around 4362 - 4395 yuan/ton, 10 - month - later futures were around 4340 - 4365 yuan/ton. The inventory at East China main ports was about 46.5 million tons, up 0.6 million tons from the previous period [5][6] Polyester - A 600,000 - tons/year polyester bottle - chip plant in East China stopped recently with an undetermined restart time. On September 15, the sales of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were differentiated, with an average sales - to - production ratio of about 50% by 3:30 pm. The sales - to - production ratio of direct - spun polyester staple fiber was 63% on average by 3:00 pm [6][7] Group 5: Trends and Recommendations PX - Short - term: follow oil price rebounds, with policy support for consumption to be monitored. Hold 11 - 01 positive spreads and 1 - 5 reverse spreads, stop profit for PXN compression positions below $220. Domestic PX operating rate is 87.8% (+4.1%). Overseas, SK Incheon's fire didn't affect PX production, and some Japanese plants may restart. PTA demand load is 76.8% (+4%) [8][9] PTA - Short - term: follow oil price rebounds, hold 11 - 01 positive spreads and 1 - 5 reverse spreads, short 01/05 contract PTA processing fees on rebounds. Current PTA spot processing fee is falling. Some PTA plants may restart or be shut for maintenance. Polyester demand is expected to weaken in Q4 [10] MEG - Short - term: market focuses on anti - involution policy, coal price rebounds, and valuation recovers. Medium - term: weak, with 1 - 5 reverse spreads recommended. Supply pressure is emerging, and polyester demand is expected to weaken in Q4 [11]

所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | T | | | | | | | | | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | | | | | | | | 21020 | -100 | 300 | 270 | 950 | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | | | | | | | | 21060 | l | l | ー | l | | LME铝3M收盘价 | | | | | | | | 2705 | ব | റ്റ് | 94 | 256 | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | | | | | | | | 143549 | -22168 | 36030 | 11247 | -27542 | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 电解铝 | | | | | | | | 182441 | -26836 | -13339 | -49905 | -13223 | | LME铝3M成交量 | | | | | | | | 20850 | -8091 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The construction of a unified national market is a major decision of the Party Central Committee, with the basic requirement of "five unifications and one opening". Industries such as glass, coal, and steel may be affected by policies and market sentiment, showing different trends [7][8][10] - The market generally anticipates a new round of policy easing due to the characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and light consumption" in China's economic data in August [21] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1所长首推 (Director's Top Picks) - **Glass**: The later period may show a volatile and upward - trending pattern. Overnight prices rose significantly, and the market's anti - deflation and anti - involution factors resurfaced. Spot sales have improved to some extent. Although there are still bearish factors such as weak real estate, weak basis, and warehouse receipt pressure, these factors are approaching their limits after the 09 delivery. It is not advisable to be overly bearish before the policy is falsified [8][9] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are expected to maintain a strong - trending pattern due to policy expectations and pre - National Day replenishment. The current market shows a pattern of "both supply and demand increasing, and prices being strong". The price bottom has emerged, and the price center is expected to gradually rise [10] 3.2商品研究 (Commodity Research) - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Gold shows a downward - revised non - farm employment trend, and silver breaks through and moves upward. The fundamentals of precious metals show various price changes and trading volume fluctuations. Relevant macro - news includes Sino - US consensus on TikTok, antitrust investigations on NVIDIA, and China's economic data release [17][18][21] - **Copper**: Driven by multiple logics, the price is rising. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there are significant mergers and acquisitions and production - related news in the industry [24][26] - **Zinc**: It maintains a volatile pattern. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there are news such as antitrust investigations on NVIDIA and payment - term commitments by automobile companies [27][28][29] - **Lead**: The decrease in inventory supports the price. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there are news such as market expectations of Fed rate cuts [30][31] - **Tin**: It fluctuates within a range. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there are various macro - news such as Sino - US consensus on TikTok [33][34][35] - **Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum fluctuates within a range, alumina rebounds upward, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there is news about the publication of an important article on the construction of a unified national market [37][39] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The contradiction in the smelting end of nickel is not prominent, and attention should be paid to the news - related risks in the mining end. Stainless steel prices may fluctuate due to the game between long - and short - term logics. There are industry - related news such as project production starts and environmental violations in Indonesia [40][41][46] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The long - term demand may exceed expectations, and it shows a volatile pattern. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there are industry - related news such as the release of the automobile industry's growth - stabilization plan [47][48][49] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The "anti - involution" sentiment for industrial silicon has fermented again, and the sentiment for polysilicon has reignited, with the futures price likely to continue rising. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there is news about a solar - cell project investment in Xinjiang [50][51][53] - **Iron Ore**: The price shows a volatile and upward - trending pattern with repeated expectations. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there is news about China's monetary data [54][55] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The anti - involution sentiment has resurfaced, and both show a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there are news such as the publication of an important article on the construction of a unified national market and steel production and trade data [58][59][61] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Boosted by macro - sentiment, they show a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there are news about ferrosilicon and manganese silicide prices and steel production data [62][63][64] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: They show a wide - range volatile pattern with repeated expectations. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there is news about the publication of an important article on the construction of a unified national market [65][66] - **Logs**: They show a repeated volatile pattern [68]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 09 月 16 日 铜：多重逻辑驱动，价格上涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 80,940 | -0.15% | 81380 | 0.54% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,189 | 1.24% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 68,871 | -22,685 | 179,256 | -7,620 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 17,033 | -3,558 | 295,000 | 3,191 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 30,643 | 5,083 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 152,625 | -1,325 | 11.25% | -2.2 ...

2025 年 9 月 16 日 螺纹钢：反内卷情绪再度来袭，偏强震荡 热轧卷板：反内卷情绪再度来袭，偏强震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | （元/吨） 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2510 HC2510 | 3,045 3,398 | 28 24 | 0.93 0.71 | | 期 货 | | | | | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2510 | 152,543 | 505,713 | -36,058 | | | HC2510 | 103,193 | 335,167 | -28,943 | | | | 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 前日价格 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 | 3240 | 3220 | 20 | | | 杭州 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Group 2: Report Core Views - Various commodities in the futures market are expected to have different trends, including upward movement, downward movement, and oscillatory trends [2][4]. - Macroeconomic and industry news, such as economic data releases, policy announcements, and corporate events, will impact commodity prices [8][14][18]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: Prices may be affected by the downward revision of non - farm employment data, with a trend strength of 0 [2][8]. - Silver: Expected to break through and move upward, with a trend strength of 0 [2][8]. Base Metals - Copper: Multiple factors drive price increases, with a trend strength of 1 [2][14]. - Zinc: Maintains an oscillatory trend, with a trend strength of 0 [2][17]. - Lead: Decreasing inventory supports prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][20]. - Tin: Ranges within an oscillatory pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [2][24]. - Aluminum: Ranges within an oscillatory pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [2][27]. - Alumina: Rebounds upward, with a trend strength of 0 [2][27]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [2][27]. - Nickel: The smelting end shows no significant contradictions; focus on news - related risks at the ore end, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30]. - Stainless Steel: The steel price may oscillate due to the game between long - and short - term logics, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30]. Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: Long - term demand may exceed expectations, with an oscillatory trend and a trend strength of 0 [2][37]. - Industrial Silicon: The "anti - involution" sentiment has re - emerged, with a trend strength of 1 [2][40]. - Polysilicon: Market sentiment has reignited, and the market may continue to rise, with a trend strength of 2 [2][41]. - Iron Ore: Expectations are fluctuating, with a relatively strong oscillatory trend and a trend strength of 0 [2][44]. - Rebar: The "anti - involution" sentiment has re - emerged, with a relatively strong oscillatory trend and a trend strength of 1 [2][48]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The "anti - involution" sentiment has re - emerged, with a relatively strong oscillatory trend and a trend strength of 1 [2][49]. - Ferrosilicon: Boosted by macro - sentiment, with a relatively strong oscillatory trend and a trend strength of 1 [2][52]. - Silicomanganese: Boosted by macro - sentiment, with a relatively strong oscillatory trend and a trend strength of 1 [2][52]. - Coke: Expectations are fluctuating, with a wide - range oscillatory trend and a trend strength of 0 [2][55]. - Coking Coal: Expectations are fluctuating, with a wide - range oscillatory trend and a trend strength of 0 [2][56]. - Logs: Oscillate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58]. - Rubber: Oscillate in a wide range, with no specific trend strength mentioned [2][62]. - Synthetic Rubber: In the short - term, macro - sentiment is positive, with an oscillatory trend [2]. - Asphalt: Production has increased, and inventory reduction has slowed down [2]. - LLDPE: Strong in the short - term, with an oscillatory trend in the medium - term [2]. - PP: Caution is needed when short - selling at low levels in the later stage, with an oscillatory market in the medium - term [2]. - Caustic Soda: Oscillates in a wide range [2]. - Pulp: Oscillates [2]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet remains stable [2]. - Methanol: Macro - sentiment is positive, with a short - term rebound [2]. - Urea: Macro - sentiment is strong, with a short - term rebound [2]. - Styrene: Strong in the short - term, bearish in the medium - term [2]. - Soda Ash: The spot market shows little change [2]. - LPG: Oscillates narrowly and strongly in the short - term [2]. - Propylene: Runs weakly at a high level in the short - term [2]. - PVC: Strong in the short - term [2]. Fuel and Shipping - Fuel Oil: Oscillates strongly with a short - term adjustment trend [4]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The rebound trend continues, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has slightly increased [4]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line): The October contract runs under pressure, while the December and February contracts oscillate widely [4]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Supported by US soybean oil, it is advisable to go long at low levels [4]. - Soybean Oil: US soybean prices have risen; pay attention to the results of China - US negotiations [4]. - Soybean Meal: Affected by the sentiment of economic and trade talks, it may rebound from an oversold position [4]. - Soybean: Rebounds and oscillates [4]. - Corn: Oscillates [4]. - Sugar: Pay attention to macro - policies [4]. - Cotton: The market focuses on the listing of new cotton [4]. - Eggs: The peak season for spot sales is approaching, and inventory remains high [4]. - Live Pigs: The weakness of the spot market is difficult to change, and policies are relatively strong [6]. - Peanuts: Pay attention to the listing of new peanuts [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Downward revision of non - farm payrolls [2] - Silver: Breakout upward [2] - Copper: Driven by multiple logics, price increases [2] - Zinc: Maintains a sideways trend [2] - Lead: Reduced inventory supports the price [2] - Tin: Ranges sideways [2] - Aluminum: Ranges sideways; Alumina: Rebounds upward; Cast aluminum alloy: Follows electrolytic aluminum [2] - Nickel: Contradictions in the smelting end are not prominent, focus on news - related risks at the ore end [2] - Stainless steel: Long - and short - term logics compete, steel prices may fluctuate [2] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: Yesterday, the closing prices of various gold and silver products showed different degrees of increase, such as the daily increase of Shanghai Gold 2510 being 0.41%. The trading volume and positions of some contracts also changed. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2510 increased by 326,453 compared with the previous day. The inventory of some products also changed, like the Shanghai Gold inventory increased by 2,799 kilograms [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There are various news including Sino - US reaching a basic framework consensus on resolving the TikTok issue, China's market regulatory authority investigating NVIDIA for anti - monopoly, and China's economic data in August showing characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and light consumption" [5][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 0, silver trend intensity is 0 [9]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract decreased by 0.15% during the day and increased by 0.54% during the night session. The trading volume and positions of futures contracts changed, and the inventory of Shanghai copper increased by 5,083 tons [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Investors almost consider the Fed's interest rate cut this week a certainty. The Trump administration announced a reduction in the import tariff on Japanese cars to 15%. Anglo American and Teck Resources agreed to merge, and Peru's copper production in July increased by 2% year - on - year [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 1 [13]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract increased by 0.02%, and the trading volume and positions of futures contracts changed. The inventory of Shanghai zinc increased by 5,466 tons [14]. - **News**: The market regulatory authority investigated NVIDIA for anti - monopoly, and major car companies responded to the "60 - day payment term" initiative [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [16]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract increased by 0.70%, and the trading volume and positions of futures contracts changed. The inventory of Shanghai lead decreased by 68 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 3,950 tons [17]. - **News**: Investors almost consider the Fed's interest rate cut this week a certainty, and the Trump administration reduced the import tariff on Japanese cars [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [18]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract increased by 0.99% during the day and 0.48% during the night session. The trading volume and positions of futures contracts changed, and the Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 178 tons [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to the gold and silver section, there are multiple macro - level news [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 0 [23]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased by 100 compared with T - 1. The trading volume and positions of futures contracts changed. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots increased by 1.10 million tons. The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract increased by 21 compared with T - 1 [24]. - **Comprehensive News**: An important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping was published in Qiushi Journal [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 0, alumina trend intensity is 0, and aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract increased by 1,360 compared with T - 1. The trading volume and positions of futures contracts changed. The price of some nickel - related products and the spread between contracts also changed [27]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Indonesian CNI nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage, environmental violations were found in the IMIP, and Indonesia planned to shorten the mining quota period [27][28][30]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [33].

豆一：反弹震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 2025 年 09 月 16 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：经贸会谈情绪影响，或超跌反弹 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 | （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 3939 | -17（-0.43%） 3946 | +4（+0.10%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 3042 | -45（-1.46%） 3043 | -8（-0.26%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1043.25 | -2.00（-0.19%） | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 285.9 | -2.4（-0.83%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | 3030～3060， 较昨-50至持平； | 9月M2601-40， 持平； | 10月M2601+0， 持平； 10-1 | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 月M2601+40/+50 ...