Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The depletion of mandatory circulation allowances may support a carbon price reversal, with expected signs in Q3, though the actual depletion is projected for mid - early October. Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate due to slow release of allowances and low trading willingness. From September, as compliance pressure mounts, prices may rise [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - CEA: The main target barely closed in the positive. There were 464,000 tons of listed allowances and 223,000 tons of bulk allowances. CCER: The listed agreement trading volume was 2,300 tons, with an average trading price of 81.57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% [6]. - The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 71.34 yuan/ton, 74.40 yuan/ton, 74.20 yuan/ton, 74.63 yuan/ton, and 74.50 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 0.00%, 3.33%, 0.00%, 0.17%, and 0.04% [10]. - The total trading volumes of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 0.00 tons, 20,000 tons, 123,000 tons, 492,300 tons, and 72,000 tons respectively [10]. - The total trading amounts of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 6.3886 million yuan, 0.00 yuan, 36.4735 million yuan, 53.641 million yuan, and 14,700 yuan respectively [11]. - The average trading price of CCER was 81.57 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.83%, a trading amount of 1.835 million yuan, a trading volume of 2,300 tons, and a cumulative trading volume of 238,910 tons [12]. Strategies - Deficit enterprises are advised to make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on July 24, 2025, including whether they will be in a strong, weak, or wide - range oscillation state, and gives corresponding support and resistance levels [2]. - In the medium - term, the A - share market's pricing effectiveness is gradually emerging, and the optimistic market trend is expected to continue [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro News and Trading Tips - China and the US will hold economic and trade talks in Sweden from July 27 - 30. The "zero - tariff" commodity tax item ratio in Hainan Free Trade Port will increase from 21% to 74% after the full - island customs closure on December 18, 2025. China will issue elderly care service consumption subsidies to moderately and severely disabled elderly people, starting pilot programs in some regions in July [8]. - The US and Japan reached a tariff agreement, with the US reducing the "reciprocal tariff" on Japan from 25% to 15%, and Japan increasing US rice imports. Japan will invest $550 billion in the US and buy $80 billion worth of US goods. Trump plans to impose 15% - 50% tariffs on most other countries [9]. - The EU and the US are moving towards an agreement to set a 15% tariff rate on most products. The Trump administration released the "AI Action Plan", and Trump criticized the Fed for lacking "courage" and called for a 3 - percentage - point interest rate cut [10]. 2. Commodity Futures - Related Information - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the price limit range, trading margin standard, trading fee standard, and trading limit of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures contracts. Dalian Commodity Exchange issued a market risk warning for coking coal [11]. - International precious metal futures generally closed down, international oil prices fluctuated narrowly, and London base metals mostly rose at the close. Market participants are concerned about policy and supply - demand changes [12]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Stock Index Futures - On July 23, 2025, major stock index futures contracts showed different trends. The A - share market had a strong pattern, with multiple major market indexes hitting new highs during the session. The Hong Kong stock market also rose. In the future, stock index futures are expected to be in a strong oscillation state [12][16]. - On July 24, 2025, IF2509 has resistance at 4147 and 4168 points and support at 4090 and 4066 points; IH2509 has resistance at 2815 and 2830 points and support at 2797 and 2785 points; IC2509 has resistance at 6165 and 6219 points and support at 6100 and 6080 points; IM2509 has resistance at 6561 and 6600 points and support at 6500 and 6463 points [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - On July 23, 2025, the 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts were in a weak oscillation state. The central bank conducted 150.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 369.6 billion yuan. The Ministry of Finance and the central bank carried out a 100 - billion - yuan central treasury cash management commercial bank time - deposit tender [34]. - On July 24, 2025, the 10 - year treasury bond futures contract T2509 is likely to be in a weak oscillation, with support at 108.32 and 108.18 yuan and resistance at 108.62 and 108.71 yuan; the 30 - year treasury bond futures contract TL2509 is also likely to be in a weak oscillation, with support at 118.6 and 118.2 yuan and resistance at 119.5 and 119.8 yuan [2][36]. Precious Metal Futures - On July 23, 2025, the gold and silver futures contracts showed upward trends. In July 2025, the gold futures continuous contract is expected to be in a strong wide - range oscillation, and the silver futures continuous contract is expected to be in a strong oscillation [40][48]. - On July 24, 2025, the gold futures contract AU2510 is likely to be in a weak oscillation, with support at 781.8 and 776.8 yuan/gram and resistance at 794.9 and 798.8 yuan/gram; the silver futures contract AG2510 is also likely to be in a weak oscillation, with support at 9393 and 9343 yuan/kg and resistance at 9526 and 9550 yuan/kg [2][3]. Base Metal Futures - On July 23, 2025, copper, aluminum oxide, tin, industrial silicon, and other base metal futures contracts had different trends. In July 2025, the copper futures continuous contract is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation, the aluminum oxide futures continuous contract is expected to be in a strong oscillation, and the tin futures continuous contract is expected to be in a strong wide - range oscillation [50][55][56]. - On July 24, 2025, the copper futures contract CU2509 is likely to be in a strong oscillation, the aluminum oxide futures contract AO2509 is likely to be in a wide - range oscillation, and the tin futures contract SN2508 is likely to be in a strong oscillation [2][3]. Energy and Chemical Futures - On July 23, 2025, coking coal, glass, soda ash, crude oil, PTA, PVC, methanol, and other energy and chemical futures contracts had different trends. In July 2025, the crude oil futures continuous contract is expected to be in a strong wide - range oscillation [85][91]. - On July 24, 2025, the coking coal futures contract JM2509 is likely to be in a strong wide - range oscillation, the glass futures contract FG509 is likely to be in a strong wide - range oscillation, the soda ash futures contract SA509 is likely to be in a weak oscillation, the crude oil futures contract SC2509 is likely to be in a strong oscillation, the PTA futures contract TA509 is likely to be in an oscillation adjustment, the PVC futures contract V2509 is likely to be in a strong oscillation, and the methanol futures contract MA509 is likely to be in a strong oscillation [2][3][6]. Agricultural Product Futures - On July 23, 2025, soybean meal and palm oil futures contracts showed upward trends. In July 2025, the iron ore futures continuous contract is expected to be in a strong oscillation, and the rebar futures continuous contract is expected to be in a strong oscillation [70][78][101]. - On July 24, 2025, the soybean meal futures contract M2509 is likely to be in a weak oscillation, the palm oil futures contract P2509 is likely to be in a wide - range oscillation, the rebar futures contract RB2510 is likely to be in a weak oscillation, the hot - rolled coil futures contract HC2510 is likely to be in a weak oscillation, and the iron ore futures contract I2509 is likely to be in a weak oscillation [2][3][6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report The report provides trend analyses and trading suggestions for various energy and chemical futures on July 24, 2025. Different futures are expected to have different trends, including upward, downward, and sideways movements, influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and macro - economic conditions [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply - demand remains tight. Suggest rolling long on the monthly spread. The domestic plant operating rate has decreased, and some plants have reduced loads unexpectedly. PTA's operating rate has rebounded, and overall supply has increased. There is still a profit in PX processing [9]. - **PTA**: The unilateral trend is upward. Pay attention to the long - PTA short - PF spread. Downstream polyester inventory has decreased, and the probability of production cuts has declined. The inventory accumulation speed of PTA has slowed down [9]. - **MEG**: Conduct a reverse spread on the 9 - 1 monthly spread. The unilateral trend has turned upward. Rising coal prices support the cost of coal - chemical products, and the long - term trend is expected to be upward [10]. 2. Rubber - The rubber market is expected to move sideways. The trading volume and open interest have decreased, and the spot price has declined slightly. The export of small - passenger - car tires in the first half of 2025 was generally at a high level, but there may be a decline in July [11][14][15]. 3. Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market is supported to move sideways. The port inventory of butadiene is at a low level. In the short term, the price center of butadiene rubber is gradually rising, but in the medium term, the supply increase may limit the price increase [16][18]. 4. Asphalt - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate repeatedly. The total weekly output has decreased, the refinery inventory has decreased, and the social inventory has increased slightly. The operating rate of refineries has decreased [20][30]. 5. LLDPE - The LLDPE market is expected to move within a range. The market price has mostly increased, but the trading volume is average. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand support is weak. The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the downstream is in the off - season [31][32][33]. 6. PP - The spot price of PP has increased slightly, but the trading is light. The futures price has risen, and the basis has changed. The market sentiment is average, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high [36][37]. 7. Caustic Soda - The rebound of caustic soda is difficult to sustain. The price in Shandong has fluctuated. The supply pressure will gradually increase in July and August, but the export can digest the new - capacity pressure. The demand is in the off - season, but there is cost support [39][40][41]. 8. Pulp - The pulp market is expected to move weakly sideways. The futures price has increased slightly, and the spot price has been stable. The port inventory is high, and the demand is weak. The supply - demand situation of the living - paper market is weak [44][46][47]. 9. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The futures price has decreased, and the basis has changed. The spot price in the Shahe area has increased significantly, and the futures - related merchants' purchases have increased [49]. 10. Methanol - Methanol is expected to move upward. The spot price index has increased. The supply has decreased in the short term, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The market is expected to remain strong in the short term, but attention should be paid to the acceptance of high - priced goods by traditional downstream industries [54][55]. 11. Urea - Urea has entered a sideways pattern after the price dropped from a high level. The trading volume has decreased for two consecutive days, and the inventory decline has narrowed. The production capacity utilization rate has decreased slightly. The demand is weak, but there is some support from the "anti - involution" policy [57][59]. 12. Styrene - Styrene is a short - position allocation under strong market sentiment. The futures price has changed, and the profit margin has decreased [60]. 13. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has changed little. The futures price has increased slightly, and the basis has changed. The supply is at a high level, and the downstream demand is stable. The market is expected to be stable and fluctuate [63]. 14. LPG - LPG is expected to move weakly in the short term. The futures price has decreased slightly, and the trading volume has decreased. The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation have increased. There are many PDH device maintenance plans [66][68][74]. 15. PVC - The rebound of PVC is difficult to sustain. The spot price has weakened. The supply reduction drive is insufficient in the second half of the year, and the high - production and high - inventory situation is difficult to change. The export is affected, and the domestic demand is weak [78][79][80]. 16. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The downward trend of fuel oil continues, and the short - term weakness is difficult to change. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to move weakly sideways, and the high - low - sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market has rebounded slightly [81]. 17. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to move weakly sideways. It is recommended to reduce short positions in the October contract and hold reverse spreads for the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 contracts. The freight rate index has declined [83].

期 货 研 究 2025 年 07 月 24 日 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：回归基本面 铸造铝合金：继续震荡 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【综合快讯】 1. 中国商务部：何立峰将于 7 月 27 日至 30 日赴瑞典与美方举行经贸会谈。商务部新闻发言人称，中 美双方将按照两国元首 6 月 5 日通话重要共识，发挥好中美经贸磋商机制作用，本着相互尊重、和平共处、 合作共赢的原则，继续就彼此关心的经贸问题开展磋商。（华尔街见闻） 2. 12 月 18 日海南自贸港封关！"零关税"商品比例 74%、"一线"口岸 8 个。海南自贸港封关将于今年 12 月 18 日正式启动。现阶段封关政策：一是实施更加优惠的货物"零关税"政策，"一线"进口的"零关 税"商品税目比例将由 21% 提高至 74%。二是实施更加宽松的贸易管理措施。三是实施更加便利的通行措 施，以岛内现有 8 个对外开放口岸作为"一线"口岸。四是实施更加高效精准的监管模式。（华尔街见闻） 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合 ...

2025年07月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡上行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：突破上行 | 2 | | 铜：库存减少，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：短期震荡 | 6 | | 铅：等待供需矛盾发酵，价格震荡 | 8 | | 锡：佤邦洪灾扰动价格 | 9 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：回归基本面 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：继续震荡 | 11 | | 镍：宏观情绪提振预期，现实限制弹性 | 13 | | 不锈钢：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面决定弹性 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 24 日 产 业 服 务 研 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | ...

2025年07月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡上行 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：突破上行 | 3 | | 铜：库存减少，支撑价格 | 5 | | 锌：短期震荡 | 7 | | 铅：等待供需矛盾发酵，价格震荡 | 9 | | 锡：佤邦洪灾扰动价格 | 10 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 12 | | 氧化铝：回归基本面 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：继续震荡 | 12 | | 镍：宏观情绪提振预期，现实限制弹性 | 14 | | 不锈钢：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面决定弹性 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：多空分歧较大，走势或宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 工业硅：关注上游复产进度 | 18 | | 多晶硅：行业会议召开，关注行情波动 | 18 | | 铁矿石：宏观预期支撑，偏强震荡 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：二轮提涨落地，震荡偏强 | 25 | | 焦煤：供给政策预期约束强化，震荡偏强 | 25 | | 动力煤：日耗修复，震荡企稳 | 2 ...

2025 年 07 月 24 日 尿素：成交转弱，高位回落，步入震荡格局 | | 杨鈜汉 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | | yanghonghan@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | 尿素基本面数据 | | | | | | | | 项 | 目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 （09合约） | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,773 | 1,817 | -44 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,788 | 1,806 | -18 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 288,338 | 314,653 | -26315 | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 180,800 | 191,764 | -10964 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 2,523 | 2,523 | 0 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 1,030,856 | 1,136,221 | -10536 ...

2025 年 07 月 24 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：减量替代担忧情绪影响，盘面下跌调整 豆一：跟随豆类市场回落调整 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 （元/吨） | 4217 +4（+0.09%） | 4193 | -36（-0.85%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 3095 +19 （+0.62%） | 3041 | -55（-1.78%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | -3.5（-0.34%） 1022.5 | | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 285.6 -1.3（-0.45%） | | n a | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | | | 2950～2980， 较昨+20至+30； 月M2509+20/+30/+60， 持平； 9月M2509+0， | 8月10日前 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. is accelerating tariff negotiations with major trading partners as August 1st approaches. There are developments in trade agreements between the U.S. and Japan, and potential agreements between the U.S. and the EU, while the third round of China - U.S. trade negotiations is set to take place [6]. - Different commodities in the futures market are expected to have various trends, such as gold and silver showing upward trends, copper being supported by inventory reduction, and many other commodities having different trends like short - term oscillations, wide - range fluctuations, etc. [11]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Gold is expected to oscillate upwards, and silver to break through and rise. Their trend intensities are both 1, indicating a moderately positive outlook [11][17][19]. - Gold and silver have specific price, trading volume, and inventory data. For example, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 is 792.90 with a daily increase of 1.03%, and the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 is 9492 with a daily increase of 1.07% [15]. 3.1.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: Inventory reduction supports its price. The trend intensity is 1. There are updates on copper's price, trading volume, inventory, and news about trade agreements and new mine production [21][23]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to have short - term oscillations. The trend intensity is 0. Relevant price, trading volume, and inventory data are provided, along with news about potential EU - U.S. trade agreements [24]. - **Lead**: It is waiting for the fermentation of supply - demand contradictions, with prices oscillating. The trend intensity is 0, and there are data on price, trading volume, inventory, and news about the U.S. - Japan trade agreement and global lead market supply [27][28]. - **Tin**: The flood in Wa State has disturbed its price. The trend intensity is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook. There are updates on price, trading volume, inventory, and various macro and industry news [30][33]. - **Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate within a range, alumina to return to fundamentals, and cast aluminum alloy to continue oscillating. Their trend intensities are all 0. There are detailed production - related data and news about China - U.S. trade negotiations and Hainan Free Trade Port policies [35][36]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's macro - sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits its elasticity; stainless steel is marginally dominated by macro - sentiment, and its fundamentals determine elasticity. Their trend intensities are both 0, and there are data on price, trading volume, and industry news about nickel production and policies in Indonesia [37][41]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coke's second - round price increase has been implemented, and it is expected to oscillate strongly; coking coal's supply policy expectations strengthen constraints, and it is also expected to oscillate strongly. Their trend intensities are both 1, with detailed price, trading volume, and inventory data [60][61][63]. - **Power Coal**: Its daily consumption is recovering, and it is expected to oscillate and stabilize. The trend intensity is 0, with price data from ports and production areas and information on open - interest changes [65][67][68]. 3.2.2 Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: There are large differences between long and short positions, and its trend may have wide - range oscillations. The trend intensity is 0, with data on price, trading volume, and news about price increases and EU policies [42][44]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon requires attention to upstream resumption of production progress, and polysilicon's industry conference is held, with attention to market fluctuations. The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [45][46][48]. - **Other Chemicals**: Many other chemicals such as PVC, fuel oil, etc. have different expected trends, including short - term weakness, oscillations, etc. [13]. 3.3 Building Materials and Minerals - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it is expected to oscillate strongly. The trend intensity is 0, with price, trading volume, and inventory data, as well as news about large - scale infrastructure projects [49][50]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to have wide - range oscillations. Their trend intensities are both 0, with price, trading volume, and inventory data, and news about power consumption, steel industry policies, and production and inventory changes [52][53][55]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicate**: They are expected to have wide - range oscillations. Their trend intensities are both 0, with price, trading volume, and inventory data, and news about price changes in the spot market [57][59]. 3.4 Others - **Log**: It is expected to oscillate repeatedly, but no detailed data or news are provided [69].

2025 年 07 月 24 日 短纤：成本支撑，短期震荡 瓶片：成本支撑，短期震荡 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com （资料来源：华瑞信息） 【趋势强度】 【基本面跟踪】 | | 短纤2508 | 昨日 6422 | 前日 6478 | 变化 -56 | PF08-09 | 昨日 -10 | 前日 8 | 变化 -18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PF | 短纤2509 | 6432 | 6470 | -38 | PF09-10 | -66 | -22 | -44 | | | 短纤2510 | 6498 | 6492 | ୧ | PF基差 | 1 68 | 130 | 38 | | | 短纤持仓量 | 271130 | 268777 | 2353 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 600 | 6, 600 | 0 | ...