期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 05 日 资料来源：SMM、同花顺 ifind、钢联、国泰君安期货研究所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 铝：大幅上涨 氧化铝：趁势反弹 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 22925 | 360 | રું ર | 1545 | 2175 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 22580 | - | - | ー | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2997 | 11 | 41 | 184 | 370 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 387574 | 17946 | 93042 | 19963 ...

期货研究 41 集运指数（欧线）：现货市场博弈性增加，高位震 荡 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 昨日收盘价 日涨跌 昨日成交 昨日持仓 持仓变动 昨日成交/持仓 前日成交/持仓 EC2602 1,801.3 0.52% 21,505 24,130 -3,725 0.89 0.89 EC2604 1,166.0 0.06% 4,507 20,919 -322 0.22 0.34 EC2512 - EC2604 单位 SCFIS：欧洲航线 点 SCFIS：美西航线 点 单位 SCFI：欧洲航线 $/TEU SCFI：美西航线 $/FEU $/40'GP $/20'GP Maersk 37 2610 1625 MSC 47 3140 1880 OOCL 37 3130 1830 EMC 30 3510 2255 CMA 38 3293 1859 ONE 57 2835 2110 HPL 46 3035 1835 HMM 4 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 31, all the current-month contracts of the four major stock index futures declined. IF dropped by 0.57%, IH by 0.37%, IC by 0.11%, and IM by 0.24% [1] - On this trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 8,609 lots, IH by 8,515 lots, while that of IC decreased by 6,494 lots and IM by 5,902 lots [2] - Regarding positions, the total positions of IF decreased by 5,128 lots, IH increased by 240 lots, IC decreased by 14,673 lots, and IM decreased by 12,524 lots [2] - At the end of 2025 trading, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.09% at 3,968.84 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.58%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.23%, the North Securities 50 fell 0.7%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 fell 1.15%, and the Wind All A fell 0.17%. The full - day trading volume of A - shares was 2.07 trillion yuan, compared with 2.16 trillion yuan the previous day [6] - In 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose more than 18% cumulatively, once regaining 4,000 points and reaching a ten - year high; the ChiNext Index soared nearly 50% [6] - In the Hong Kong stock market, on the half - day trading day at the end of the year, the Hang Seng Index closed down 0.87%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.12%. The medical, financial, and consumer industries led the decline, while non - ferrous stocks rose against the trend. In 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose 27.77% cumulatively, achieving its best performance since 2017; the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 23.45% cumulatively [7] - On the first trading day of 2026, the Hong Kong stock market had a "good start". The Hang Seng Index closed up 2.76% at 26,338.47 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index soared 4% to 5,736.44 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 2.86% to 9,168.99 points. The trading volume of the broader market was HK$140.864 billion, an increase compared with the previous trading day [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1期指期现数据跟踪 - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF2601, IF2602, IF2603, and IF2606 were 4,622.2, 4,609.6, 4,599.8, and 4,555 respectively, all showing a decline. The trading volumes were 28,844, 2,673, 63,352, and 8,169 respectively, with some increases. The positions were 58,209, 5,401, 166,875, and 45,516 respectively, with some changes [1] - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH2601, IH2602, IH2603, and IH2606 were 3,026, 3,025.2, 3,025, and 3,016.4 respectively, all declining. The trading volumes were 11,956, 1,296, 31,896, and 4,533 respectively, with some increases. The positions were 19,381, 1,500, 53,650, and 14,116 respectively, with some changes [1] - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC2601, IC2602, IC2603, and IC2606 were 7,455.6, 7,407.8, 7,362.8, and 7,175.4 respectively, all declining. The trading volumes were 28,756, 6,340, 62,267, and 13,618 respectively, with some changes. The positions were 59,168, 13,060, 145,074, and 56,872 respectively, with some decreases [1] - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM2601, IM2602, IM2603, and IM2606 were 7,581.4, 7,504.4, 7,436.2, and 7,198 respectively, all declining. The trading volumes were 39,459, 8,416, 93,696, and 15,854 respectively, with some changes. The positions were 80,925, 17,176, 181,081, and 80,955 respectively, with some changes [1] 3.2期指前20大会员持仓增减 - For IF contracts, the long - position changes of IF2601, IF2602, IF2603, and IF2606 were - 649, not announced, - 2,830, and 724 respectively; the short - position changes were - 544, not announced, - 4,308, and 939 respectively [5] - For IH contracts, the long - position changes of IH2601, IH2602, IH2603, and IH2606 were 721, not announced, 689, and - 63 respectively; the short - position changes were 432, not announced, 421, and - 57 respectively [5] - For IC contracts, the long - position changes of IC2601, IC2602, IC2603, and IC2606 were - 3,287, 939, - 5,620, and - 826 respectively; the short - position changes were - 4,323, 890, - 7,664, and - 1,146 respectively [5] - For IM contracts, the long - position changes of IM2601, IM2602, IM2603, and IM2606 were - 4,022, 1,255, - 5,599, and not announced respectively; the short - position changes were - 4,169, 1,255, - 6,888, and not announced respectively [5] 3.3趋势强度 - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6] 3.4重要驱动 - In 2025, among the Wind theme industries, the precious metals index had the largest increase, rising more than 110% cumulatively; among the concept sectors, the CPO index had the largest increase, rising more than 180% cumulatively [6] - In 2025, Shangwei New Materials rose 1,820% cumulatively, becoming the top - performing stock; Tianpu Co., Ltd. rose 1,645% annually, ranking second [6] - During the New Year's Day holiday in 2026, the number of domestic tourist trips was 142 million, and the total domestic tourism consumption was 84.789 billion yuan. Winter - themed cultural and tourism products were in high demand [7] - The US claimed to have successfully attacked Venezuela and captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife. China firmly opposed this act, and the UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting on the US military action in Venezuela [8]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Platinum is in a wide - range oscillation waiting for a further direction, and palladium is in a wide - range oscillation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 527.25 with a - 13.28% change; gold - exchange platinum at 511.50 with a - 9.49% change; New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) at 2161.80 with a 4.43% change; London spot platinum (previous day) at 2178.00 with a 5.73% change. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 425.20 with a - 4.97% change; RMB spot palladium at 406.00 with a - 16.97% change; New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) at 1695.50 with a 2.08% change; London spot palladium (previous day) at 1630.14 with a 1.53% change [1] - **Trading Volume and Position Data**: Guangdong platinum trading volume was 137,126 kg (up 62,327 kg from the previous day), and its position was 42,720 kg (down 6,970 kg). NYMEX platinum trading volume was 38,635 kg (down 28,147 kg), and its position was 107,075 kg (down 3,955 kg). Guangdong palladium trading volume was 85,499 kg (up 40,701 kg), and its position was 17,202 kg (down 6,203 kg). NYMEX palladium trading volume was 14,821 kg (down 13,990 kg), and its position was 57,952 kg (down 3,201 kg) [1] - **ETF Position Data**: Platinum ETF position (ounces, previous day) was 3,307,880 (up 29,224), and palladium ETF position (ounces, previous day) was 1,161,192 (up 17,375) [1] - **Inventory Data**: Guangdong platinum and palladium inventories remained unchanged, NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces, previous day) was 652,841 (unchanged), and NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces, previous day) was 210,029 (unchanged) [1] - **Spread Data**: PT9995 to PT2606 spread was - 15.75 (up 8.98 from the previous day); Guangdong platinum 2606 contract to 2610 contract spread was - 8.45 (up 16.00); buying Guangdong platinum 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage cost was 6.53 (down 0.76). RMB spot palladium price to PD2606 spread was - 19.20 (up 22.25); Guangdong palladium 2606 contract to 2610 contract spread was - 7.10 (down 0.95); buying Guangdong palladium 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage cost was 5.32 (down 0.26) [1] - **Exchange Rate Data**: The US dollar index was 98.46 (up 0.21%); US dollar to RMB (CNY spot) was 7.00 (unchanged); US dollar to offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 6.97 (down 0.12%); US dollar to RMB (6M forward) was 6.91 (down 0.28%) [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The US lifted airspace restrictions in the Caribbean Sea, and multiple airlines resumed flights in the region [3] - On January 3, 2026, the US launched a large - scale military operation against Venezuela, "captured" Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, and was expected to bring them to the US for drug - related criminal charge hearings by the evening of January 5. The Venezuelan vice - president assumed the presidential duties [5] - OPEC+ agreed to suspend production increases in the first quarter, and the meeting did not discuss the Venezuelan issue [5] - The Trump administration asked US oil companies to invest in Venezuela, and industry insiders were cautious about this [5] - China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson called on the US to immediately release President Maduro and his wife [5] - The State Council will no longer approve the construction of beneficiation projects without self - built mines and supporting tailings utilization and disposal facilities in principle [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Platinum trend intensity is 0, and palladium trend intensity is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For ferrosilicon, the steel tender pricing is settled, and caution should be exercised regarding market sentiment. For silicomanganese, the inquiry sentiment is strong after the holiday, and waiting for the steel tender settlement [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - Ferrosilicon 2603 closed at 5672, down 78 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 225,315 and an open interest of 218,692. Ferrosilicon 2605 closed at 5628, down 78, with a trading volume of 28,644 and an open interest of 47,924. Silicomanganese 2603 closed at 5920, down 22, with a trading volume of 146,560 and an open interest of 267,767. Silicomanganese 2605 closed at 5936, down 12, with a trading volume of 66,562 and an open interest of 206,794 [1] 3.1.2 Spot Market - The aggregated price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5320 yuan/ton. The price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5650 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore Mn44 block was 42.5 yuan/ton - degree. The price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu was 760 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.3 Price Spreads - The spot - futures spread of ferrosilicon (spot - 03 futures) was - 352 yuan/ton, up 78. The spot - futures spread of silicomanganese (spot - 03 futures) was - 270 yuan/ton, up 22. The near - far month spread of ferrosilicon 2603 - 2605 was 44 yuan/ton, unchanged. The near - far month spread of silicomanganese 2603 - 2605 was - 16 yuan/ton, down 10. The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2603 - ferrosilicon 2603 was 248 yuan/ton, up 56. The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2605 - ferrosilicon 2605 was 308 yuan/ton, up 66 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On January 4, the prices of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions were: Shaanxi 5150 - 5300 (+25), Ningxia 5300 - 5350, Qinghai 5200 - 5300, Gansu 5250 - 5350, Inner Mongolia 5300 - 5350 (+50); 75 ferrosilicon: Shaanxi 5600 - 5700, Ningxia 5600 - 5650, Qinghai 5600, Gansu 5550 - 5600, Inner Mongolia 5650 - 5700 (+50). The FOB prices were 721030 - 1050(+10), 751090 - 1120 (US dollars/ton,含税). The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton; the southern quotation was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton (-25) [2] - Hegang set the purchase price of 75B ferrosilicon for January at 5760 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from December, with a quantity of 3313 tons, an increase of 563 tons from December [2] - In December 2025, the manganese ore dredging volume at Tianjin Port was 2,388,476 tons, a 17.28% increase from November's 2,036,533 tons and a 14.49% decrease from December 2024's 2,793,090 tons. From January to December 2025, the manganese ore dredging volume at Tianjin Port was 23,913,195 tons, a 15.17% increase from the same period in 2024, an increase of 3.15 million tons [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of ferrosilicon was 0; the trend intensity of silicomanganese was 0 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - During the holiday, the tin market showed stable fluctuations. The trend strength of tin is 1, indicating a neutral outlook [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 326,330, down 2.47% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 441,257 (down 12,067 from the day before) and an open interest of 43,769 (down 6,392). The LME Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 42,195, up 5.46%, with a trading volume of 180 (down 9) and an open interest of 13,988 (up 53) [1] - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai Tin inventory was 7,772, down 133 from the previous day, and LME Tin inventory was 5,330, up 185. The cancellation - warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, down 0.38% [1] - **Spot and Price Difference Data**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 339,800 (down 800), the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 321,600 (down 22,300). The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was 95 (down 35), the spread between the nearby contract and the consecutive first contract remained unchanged at 130,660, and the spot - to - futures main contract spread was - 12,990 (down 18,340) [1] - **Industrial Chain Key Price Data**: The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 327,800 (down 800), the price of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi was 331,800 (down 800), and the prices of 63A and 60A solder bars remained unchanged at 227,250 and 217,750 respectively [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The US launched an air strike on Venezuela, and Trump claimed to have captured Maduro and his wife. China called on the US to ensure their safety and stop regime - change efforts. Russia also urged the US to release Maduro [2] - OPEC+ will maintain the plan to suspend production increases in the first quarter [2] - Yushu Technology clarified that it has not applied for a "green channel" and its listing work is progressing normally [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of tin is 1, with the range of values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3]

2026 年 1 月 5 日 商 品 研 究 螺纹钢：原料冬储和复产预期叠加，钢厂利 润预计压缩 热轧卷板：原料冬储和复产预期叠加，钢厂利 润预计压缩 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2605 | 3,122 | -15 | -0.48 | | | HC2605 | 3,270 | -17 | -0.52 | | 期 货 | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2605 | 651,840 | 1,505,284 | -55,522 | | | HC2605 | 364,579 | 1,267,557 | -15,762 | | | | 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 前 ...

短纤：跟涨上游震荡偏强 20260105 瓶片：跟涨上游震荡偏强 20260105 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 短纤：无期货盘面价格指引，短纤工厂报价大多持稳，今日直纺涤短销售高低分化，截止下午 3:00 附 近，平均产销 57%，部分工厂产销：110%、150%、100%、20%、80%、40%、65%、0%、39%，30%。 瓶片：元旦假日期间成交以刚需补货为主，多集中在 5980-6100 元/吨出厂附近，多为明年一季度订单。 周日期货市场停盘，聚酯瓶片工厂报价多稳，部分工厂未报价。周末聚酯瓶片市场成交清淡。1-2 月订单适 量成交在 5980-6100 元/吨出厂不等，少量略高 6120 元/吨出厂附近，品牌不同价格略有差异。 2026 年 01 月 05 日 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2601 | 6476 | 6500 | -24 | PF01-02 | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is about the pig industry, with a title indicating a weakening trend in pigs on January 5, 2026 [1] Group 2: Fundamental Tracking - In terms of spot prices, the Henan spot price is 13,430 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 900 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price is 13,050 yuan/ton with a 400 - yuan/ton increase, and the Guangdong spot price is 13,160 yuan/ton with a 200 - yuan/ton increase [3] - For futures prices, the price of Live Pig 2603 is 11,795 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 5 yuan/ton, Live Pig 2605 is 12,165 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan/ton decrease, and Live Pig 2607 is 12,805 yuan/ton with a 5 - yuan/ton decrease [3] - Regarding trading volume and open interest, the trading volume of Live Pig 2603 is 82,347 lots, a decrease of 23,116 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 171,144 lots, a decrease of 1,202 lots; for Live Pig 2605, the trading volume is 24,226 lots, an increase of 696 lots, and the open interest is 90,813 lots, an increase of 2,111 lots; for Live Pig 2607, the trading volume is 4,496 lots, a decrease of 249 lots, and the open interest is 41,704 lots, an increase of 24 lots [3] - In terms of price spreads, the basis of Live Pig 2603 is 1,635 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 895 yuan/ton, Live Pig 2605 basis is 1,265 yuan/ton with a 910 - yuan/ton increase, and Live Pig 2607 basis is 625 yuan/ton with a 905 - yuan/ton increase; the spread between Live Pig 3 - 5 is - 370 yuan/ton with a 15 - yuan/ton increase, and the spread between Live Pig 5 - 7 is - 640 yuan/ton with a 5 - yuan/ton decrease [3] Group 3: Market Information - Yunnan Shennong registered 85 lots of warehouse receipts on December 4, Guizhou Fuyuan registered 23 lots on December 5, Dekang registered 225 lots on December 10 and 150 lots on December 11, Yangxiang registered 40 lots on December 10, COFCO registered 300 lots on December 15 and 150 lots on December 29, and Muyuan registered 40 lots on December 23 [4] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the pig industry is - 1, indicating a weak outlook as the range is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoint - The report focuses on the high - level oscillation of lithium carbonate and suggests paying attention to the actual production cut situation of cathode materials [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For the 2601 contract, the closing price is 120,000 yuan, the trading volume is 5,997 lots, and the open interest is 11,285 lots. For the 2605 contract, the closing price is 121,580 yuan, the trading volume is 392,450 lots, and the open interest is 490,194 lots. The warehouse receipt volume is 20,281 lots [1] - **Basis Data**: The basis of spot - 2601 is - 1,500 yuan, spot - 2605 is - 3,080 yuan, 2601 - 2605 is - 1,580 yuan, electric carbon - industrial carbon is 3,000 yuan, and spot - CIF is 20,654 yuan [1] - **Raw Material Data**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 1,548 yuan, lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 3,465 yuan [1] - **Lithium Salt Data**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 118,500 yuan, industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 115,500 yuan, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) is 114,600 yuan, etc. [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 117,373 yuan/ton, up 1,564 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 118,500 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 115,500 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton [2] - Zhongkuang Resources' subsidiary's 30,000 - ton high - purity lithium salt technical renovation project was officially ignited and put into trial production on January 2, 2026. The total investment is about 121 million yuan. After the project is completed and put into production, the total designed annual production capacity of battery - grade lithium salt will increase from 41,000 tons to 71,000 tons [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0 [3]