Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that stock index futures may show a volatile and moderately strong trend. On September 15, the current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures showed mixed performance, with trading volume and open interest generally decreasing, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **September 15 Quotes**: The closing prices, price changes, basis, trading volumes, and open interests of various stock index futures contracts (such as IF, IH, IC, IM) and their underlying indexes (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) are presented. For example, the CSI 300 closed at 4533.06, up 0.24%, while IF2509 closed at 4527.8, up 0.04%, with a basis of - 5.26 [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures decreased, with IF down 10859 lots, IH down 9934 lots, IC down 38503 lots, and IM down 46447 lots. The total open interest also decreased, with IF down 11030 lots, IH down 1517 lots, IC down 18126 lots, and IM down 15462 lots [2]. 3.2 Basis Charts - Basis charts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided, showing the basis changes of current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts from August 20 to September 15 [4]. 3.3 Top 20 Member Position Changes - The changes in long and short positions of the top 20 members in various stock index futures contracts are presented. For example, in the IF2509 contract, long positions decreased by 13634 lots, and short positions decreased by 13985 lots [5]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of IF and IH are 1, and those of IC and IM are also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. 3.5 Important Drivers - Policy Factors: An important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping will be published in the 18th issue of Qiushi magazine, emphasizing the rectification of corporate low - price disorderly competition and government procurement bidding chaos. The National Bureau of Statistics states that in August, the national economy was generally stable, but there are still many risks and challenges [7]. - Market Conditions: The market is optimistic about the interest - rate decision week. The S&P has reached 6600 points, and the NASDAQ has hit a record high for six consecutive trading days. In the domestic A - share market, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.26% to 3860.5 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.63%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.51%. The A - share trading volume was 2.3 trillion yuan, down from 2.55 trillion yuan the previous day [7][8].

Report Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bullish with oscillations due to fluctuating expectations [2][4] - Rebar: Bullish with oscillations as anti - cut - throat competition sentiment resurfaces [2][7] - Hot - rolled coil: Bullish with oscillations as anti - cut - throat competition sentiment resurfaces [2][8] - Ferrosilicon: Bullish with oscillations boosted by macro sentiment [2][11] - Silicomanganese: Bullish with oscillations boosted by macro sentiment [2][11] - Coke: Wide - range oscillations with fluctuating expectations [2][14] - Coking coal: Wide - range oscillations with fluctuating expectations [2][15] - Logs: Oscillatory and erratic [2][17] Core Views - The prices of various black - series commodities in the futures market show different trends, mainly affected by factors such as market expectations, macro sentiment, and industry fundamentals [2][4][8] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of I2601 closed at 796.0 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton (-0.44%); the position decreased by 7,364 hands. Among spot prices, the price of imported ore mostly declined, while some domestic ore prices rose. Some basis and spread values changed [4] - **News**: As of the end of August, M2 balance was 331.98 trillion yuan, up 8.8% year - on - year; M1 balance was 111.23 trillion yuan, up 6% year - on - year [4] - **Trend Strength**: 0 [4] Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For RB2510, the closing price was 3,045 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (0.93%); for HC2510, it was 3,398 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton (0.71%). Spot prices in most regions increased. Some basis and spread values changed [8] - **News**: From January to August 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.2% year - on - year; fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year; total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year - on - year. In August, China exported 951.0 tons of steel, down 3.3% month - on - month [9][10] - **Trend Strength**: 1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts increased to varying degrees. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese also changed. There were changes in basis, spread, and cross - variety spread [11] - **News**: In August 2025, China's crude steel output was 7,737 million tons, down 0.7% year - on - year; the daily average output was 249.6 million tons, down 2.8% month - on - month [11] - **Trend Strength**: 1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased by 3.8% and 3.9% respectively. Spot prices of coking coal remained stable, while some coke prices declined. Some basis and spread values changed [15] - **News**: An important article by Xi Jinping will be published in the 18th issue of Qiushi Journal [15] - **Trend Strength**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [16] Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts showed different trends. Spot prices of most log products remained stable [18] - **News**: As of the end of August, M2 balance was 331.98 trillion yuan, up 8.8% year - on - year; M1 balance was 111.23 trillion yuan, up 6% year - on - year [20] - **Trend Strength**: 0 [20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The market is concerned about the situation of new cotton listing. The overall trading of domestic cotton spot is sluggish, with less inventory of high - quality lint. The pre - sale of some new cotton has relatively good transactions, and most of the spot sales basis is stable. The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is mediocre, weaker than the same period in previous years. The sales of all - cotton grey fabrics remain stable, with thick - type fabrics having better sales [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,885 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.18%, and 13910 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 0.18%. CY2511 closed at 19,900 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.28%, and 20025 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 0.63%. ICE US cotton 12 closed at 66.82 cents/pound yesterday with a daily increase of 0.09% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of CF2601 yesterday was 279,205 lots, an increase of 70,791 lots compared with the previous day, and the position was 693,565 lots, a decrease of 7,369 lots. The trading volume of CY2511 yesterday was 11,551 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the position was 21,140 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts yesterday was 4,899, a decrease of 118, and the effective forecast was 2, an increase of 2. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 89, a decrease of 1, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 90 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,152 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan compared with the previous day, with a growth rate of 0.17%. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,845 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan, with a growth rate of 0.17%. The price of cotton in Shandong remained unchanged at 15,282 yuan/ton. The price of cotton in Hebei was 15,215 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan, with a growth rate of 0.05%. The 3128B index was 15,249 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan, with a growth rate of 0.01%. The international cotton index M was 74.43 cents/pound, an increase of 0.23% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan compared with the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall trading of cotton spot is sluggish. The inventory of high - quality lint is low, and the pre - sale of some new cotton has relatively good transactions. Most of the spot sales basis remains stable. The purchase price of seed cotton for wadding in Southern Xinjiang over the weekend has cooled down, and the current mainstream purchase price is around 7.4 - 7.45 yuan/kg, with cottonseed at 2.4 - 2.5 yuan/kg [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is mediocre, weaker than the same period in previous years. Downstream enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases, and spinning enterprises negotiate real orders. Recently, with the decline of cotton prices, the cash flow of spinning enterprises has slightly improved. The sales of all - cotton grey fabrics remain stable, and the current market is mainly dominated by thick - type fabrics [2]. - **US Cotton Situation**: Yesterday, ICE cotton futures continued to fluctuate in a narrow range, with relatively light market news and trading [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5].

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pure benzene industry is short - term bullish [1] 2) Core View - The pure benzene market shows a short - term upward trend with price increases and changes in inventory levels [1][2] 3) Summary by Related Content Fundamentals Tracking - Futures prices of BZ2603, BZ2604, and BZ2605 increased by 44, 77, and 34 respectively compared to the previous day [1] - The price differences between different futures contracts and between pure benzene and other products changed, such as BZ2603 - BZ2604 decreased by 33 and BZ2603 - EB2508 decreased by 310 [1] - Paper - cargo prices of N + 1 and N + 2 increased by 35 and 30 respectively [1] - Shandong pure benzene price rose by 35 to 6005 yuan/ton, and the price differences between Shandong pure benzene and other types of benzene also increased [1] - Pure benzene inventory in East China ports decreased by 10,000 tons to 134,000 tons, while styrene inventory in East China ports increased by 6760 tons to 133,690 tons [1] News - As of September 15, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 10,000 tons (6.94% MoM) to 134,000 tons, and increased by 84,000 tons (168% YoY) compared to last year [2] - From September 8 - 14, the estimated arrival was about 18,000 tons and the estimated pick - up was about 28,000 tons [2] - As of September 15, 2025, the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 17,500 tons (9.92%) to 159,000 tons, and the commercial inventory decreased by 9000 tons (10.34%) to 78,000 tons [2] - On September 15, the non - long - term contract trading volume of Shandong pure benzene was about 1700 tons, with a self - pick - up price range of 6000 - 6010 yuan/ton and an average price of 6005 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - Spot prices of pure benzene in East China increased, with different price increases for different trading periods [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of pure benzene is 0, indicating a neutral trend within the [- 2,2] range [2]

2025 年 09 月 16 日 锌：维持震荡 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 22310 | 0.02% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 2956 | 1.76% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 97830 | -5773 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 14507 | 4935 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 92003 | -5694 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 218799 | 13993 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | -70 | -5 | LME CASH-3M 升 | 30.17 | 4.17 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） ...

Report Overview - The report focuses on the market conditions of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese on September 16, 2025, including fundamental data, macro and industry news, and trend strength [1]. 1. Fundamental Data Futures Data - The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2511 and 2601 are 5700 and 5660 respectively, with increases of 92 and 86 compared to the previous trading day. Their trading volumes are 200,143 and 61,942, and the open interests are 213,259 and 94,956 [1]. - The closing prices of silicomanganese 2511 and 2601 are 5894 and 5906 respectively, with increases of 72 and 74 compared to the previous trading day. Their trading volumes are 100,883 and 184,056, and the open interests are 118,581 and 327,726 [1]. Spot Data - The price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5680 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [1]. - The price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 39.8 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.2 yuan/ton - degree. The price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 650 yuan/ton [1]. Spread Data - The spot - futures spread of ferrosilicon (spot - 11 futures) is - 400 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread of silicomanganese (spot - 01 futures) is - 226 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton [1]. - The near - far month spread of ferrosilicon 2511 - 2601 is 40 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread of silicomanganese 2511 - 2601 is - 12 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [1]. - The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2511 - ferrosilicon 2511 is 194 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2601 - ferrosilicon 2601 is 246 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On September 15, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions was as follows: Shaanxi 5150 - 5250, Ningxia 5250 - 5350 (- 50), Qinghai 5200 - 5300, Gansu 5300 - 5350 (+ 50), Inner Mongolia 5250 - 5300. The price range of 75 ferrosilicon in different regions was also provided. The FOB prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon were 1040 - 1060 and 1100 - 1130 US dollars/ton respectively. The price range of 6517 silicomanganese in the north was 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton, and in the south was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton [1]. - In August 2025, China's crude steel output was 7737 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. The daily average crude steel output in August was 249.6 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.8%. From January to August, China's crude steel output was 67181 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8% [1]. - In August 2025, South Korea's silicomanganese imports were 15902 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1738 tons (a decrease of 9.85%) and a year - on - year increase of 11.66%. The main importing countries were Malaysia (13495 tons), Vietnam (1725 tons), and Bhutan (329 tons) [2][3]. 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of ferrosilicon is 1, and the trend strength of silicomanganese is 1. The trend strength ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3].

2025 年 09 月 16 日 工业硅："反内卷"情绪再次发酵 多晶硅：情绪重燃，盘面或继续冲高 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） Si2511成交量（手） | 8,800 498,210 | 55 194,367 | 270 27,515 | 125 -13,866 | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 290,948 | 12,960 | 1,377 | 11,913 | | | | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | | -65 | | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2511成交量（手） | 53,545 237,981 | -118,827 | -2,165 -218,899 | - - | | | | PS2511持仓量（手） | 132,212 | -2,686 | -21,799 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The long - term demand for lithium carbonate may exceed expectations, and the price will fluctuate [1] - The industrial and information technology department and other eight departments have issued the "Automobile Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", aiming to further promote automobile consumption [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 72,680 yuan, with a change of 1,520 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 482,790 lots, with a change of 71,801 lots compared to T - 1; the open interest was 309,446 lots, with a change of 44 lots compared to T - 1. For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 72,880 yuan, with a change of 1,620 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 104,173 lots, with a change of 34,884 lots compared to T - 1; the open interest was 172,268 lots, with a change of - 212 lots compared to T - 1 [1] - **Basis Data**: The basis of spot - 2511 was - 230 yuan, the basis of spot - 2601 was - 430 yuan, and the basis of 2511 - 2601 was - 200 yuan [1] - **Raw Material Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 848 yuan, with a change of 6 yuan compared to T - 1; the price of lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,775 yuan, with no change compared to T - 1 [1] - **Lithium Salt Data**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,450 yuan, with no change compared to T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,200 yuan, with no change compared to T - 1 [1] Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 72,380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The price range of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 7.13 - 7.36 million yuan/ton, with an average price of 7.245 million yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. The price range of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 6.96 - 7.08 million yuan/ton, with an average price of 7.02 million yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day [2] - The eight - department plan aims to promote automobile consumption through measures such as supporting trade - ins, updating new - energy city buses and power batteries, and carrying out pilot reforms in automobile circulation and consumption [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]

2025 年 09 月 16 日 甲醇：宏观情绪偏暖，短期反弹 | 黄天圆 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 | Huangtianyuan022594@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 杨鈜汉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 甲醇基本面数据 | 甲醇基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项 目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | 期货市场 | 甲醇主力 （01合约） | 收盘价（元/吨） | 2,396 | 2,379 | 1 7 -14520 | | | | 结算价（元/吨） | 2,386 | 2,378 | 8 | | | | 成交量（手） | 498,181 | 404,422 | 93759 | | | | 持仓量（手） | 783,891 | 798,411 | | | | | 仓单数量（吨） | 16,131 | 16,131 | 0 | | | | 成交 ...

资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 期 货 研 究 2025 年 09 月 16 日 白糖：关注宏观政策 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 白糖基本面数据 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 16.67 | 0.14 | 91 价差（元/吨） | 0 | 26 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 5940 | 0 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 23 | 0 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5549 | 9 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 391 | -9 | 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：印度季风降水量再度增强。巴西出口下降，引发对于全球消费的担忧。巴西 8 月出口 374 万 吨，同比减少 5%；巴西 7 月出口 359 万吨，同比减少 5%。Conab 下调 25/26 榨季巴西产量至 4450 万吨，前 值 4590 万吨。中国 7 月进口食糖 74 万吨（+32 万吨）。 国内市场：CAOC 预计 24/2 ...