金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2026年1月4日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：地缘政治刺激避险情绪；白银：高位回落，资金止盈离场 强弱分析：黄金偏强、白银偏强 价格区间：975-1050元/克、16500-19500元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回落-2.85%，伦敦银回升2.82%。金银比从前周的64回落至58.37，10年期TIPS回升至1.94%，10年期名义利率回落至4.19% （2年期3.47%），美元指数录得98.45。 ◆ 假期前贵金属板块剧烈调整，年末和元旦前止盈盘大量离场，铂钯作为贵金属板块风险偏好的风向标，连续跌停也带崩白银表现。整体上我 们认为：1、现在盘面明显感觉到资金从贵金属撤退，做高切低。2、白银抢跑结束，后续继续上涨需要等 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper lacks obvious driving forces, with prices oscillating at high levels, and the idea of buying on dips remains unchanged. The strength analysis is neutral, with a price range of 96,000 - 105,000 yuan/ton, and the COMEX - LME price spread has fallen back to around $100/ton [3]. - Macro - and fundamental factors lack obvious driving forces for price movement. Geopolitical turmoil globally may intensify risk - aversion sentiment. In the short - term, the domestic spot driving logic is weak, while the overseas spot logic remains strong. Long - term fundamentals still support copper prices, with a significant drop in China's imported copper concentrate long - term TC in 2026 and a strong long - term consumption recovery expectation [7]. - In terms of trading strategies, the short - term upward driving force for prices is not strong, but the idea of buying copper on dips remains unchanged due to the long - term positive fundamentals. For spread trading, the COMEX - LME spread has weakened, and it is advisable to reduce positions in the LME - SHFE positive spread trading when opportunities arise. Also, be cautious with the internal - external reverse spread as the current spot export profit margin has narrowed [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - Volatility: The volatilities of LME, SHFE, INE, and COMEX copper have expanded. The LME copper price volatility is around 16%, up from the previous week, and the SHFE copper volatility is around 19%, slightly up from the previous week [12]. - Term Spread: The term structure of SHFE copper has strengthened marginally, and the LME copper spot premium has expanded. The SHFE 01 - 02 spread was 560 yuan/ton on December 31, higher than - 120 yuan/ton on December 26. The LME 0 - 3 premium was $38.60/ton on January 2, 2026, higher than $19.69/ton on December 24, 2025. The COMEX copper near - end C - structure has expanded [17][19]. - Position: SHFE and LME copper positions have decreased, while INE copper positions have increased. SHFE copper positions have decreased by 37,000 lots to 617,700 lots [20]. - Capital and Industry Positions: LME commercial short net positions have increased. LME commercial short net positions increased from 76,400 lots on December 19 to 77,500 lots on December 24; CFTC non - commercial long net positions increased from 64,800 lots on December 16 to 67,100 lots on December 23 [26]. - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot discount has narrowed, and the Yangshan Port copper premium has declined. The domestic copper spot premium narrowed from a discount of 340 yuan/ton on December 26 to a discount of 190 yuan/ton on December 31. The Yangshan Port copper premium fell from $55/ton on December 26 to $51/ton on December 31 [31]. - Inventory: The global total copper inventory has increased, with a significant increase in domestic social inventory. The global total copper inventory increased from 853,000 tons on December 25 to 905,500 tons on January 1, 2026. Domestic social inventory increased from 193,600 tons on December 25 to 238,900 tons on January 1, 2026 [37]. - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The LME copper position - to - inventory ratio has oscillated, and the SHFE copper position - to - inventory ratio is at a historically low level for the same period [38]. 3.2 Supply End - Copper Concentrate: Imports have increased year - on - year, and processing fees have remained weak. In November 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2.5262 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.05% and a year - on - year increase of 12.55%. Port inventory decreased from 680,000 tons on December 19 to 670,000 tons on December 26 [43]. - Recycled Copper: Imports have increased year - on - year, and domestic production has increased significantly year - on - year. In November, recycled copper imports were 208,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.94%. In September, domestic recycled copper production was 97,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.85% [44]. - Crude Copper: Imports have increased month - on - month, and processing fees have rebounded. In November, crude copper imports were 58,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.60%. In December, the southern processing fee was 1,500 yuan/ton, and the import processing fee was $95/ton [52]. - Refined Copper: Production has increased year - on - year, imports have decreased, and the loss in copper spot imports has narrowed. In November, refined copper production was 1.1031 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. The loss in copper spot imports narrowed from 1,900.19 yuan/ton on December 24 to 1,083.72 yuan/ton on December 31 [55]. 3.3 Demand End - Capacity Utilization Rate: In November, the capacity utilization rate of copper product enterprises increased month - on - month. The capacity utilization rates of copper tubes and copper plates, strips, and foils rebounded in November but remained at historically low levels. In the week of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of wire and cable production decreased marginally [59]. - Profit: The copper rod processing fee is at a historically low level for the same period, and the copper tube processing fee has rebounded. As of December 31, the processing fee for copper rods used in the power industry in East China was 240 yuan/ton, higher than 110 yuan/ton on December 26. The 10 - day moving average of the processing fee for R410A - specific copper tubes was 5,343 yuan/ton on December 31, higher than 5,274 yuan/ton on December 26 [64]. - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has remained at a low level. In November, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a slightly lower - than - neutral position for the same period in history, and the raw material inventory of copper tubes was at a historically low level. The weekly raw material inventory of wire and cable has continued to decline [65]. - Finished - Product Inventory: The finished - product inventory of copper rods is at a high level, and the finished - product inventory of wire and cable has increased. In November, the finished - product inventory of copper rods was at a historically high level for the same period, and the finished - product inventory of copper tubes was at a relatively low level for the same period. The weekly finished - product inventory of wire and cable has increased [68]. 3.4 Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: Apparent consumption is good, and power grid investment remains an important support. From January to October, the cumulative actual copper consumption was 13.2983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.36%, and the apparent consumption was 13.4169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.00%. Power grid investment increased by 5.90% year - on - year from January to November [76]. - Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle Production: In November, the domestic air - conditioner production was 10.577 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 35.70%, and the domestic new - energy vehicle production was 1.88 million units, a year - on - year increase of 20.05% [77].

2026 年 1 月 4 日 镍：现实压力背负与周期转变叙事博弈，宽幅震荡 不锈钢：现实基本面拖累，盘面博弈印尼政策为主 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 本轮资金面对镍与不锈钢的关注度提高，本质在于消息面的变化，主要包括：印尼镍矿配额的 2.5 亿 吨目标，以及考虑将伴生矿物，如钴，纳入计价和征税体系，以及违规开采镍矿罚款，具体来看： 1）配额事件：印尼政府敦促企业重新提交了 2026 年 RKAB 预算，市场公开消息称印尼希望可以削减 至 2.5 亿吨镍矿配额。即便在镍铁转冰镍路径逐步出清的情况下，2024-2026 年印尼镍矿需求为 2.5、 2.8 和 3.0 亿吨，如果 2.5 亿吨的配额落地，矿端紧缺可能倒逼冶炼端减产，从而将过剩预期扭转为紧缺， 并对存量的高库存形成冲击。不过，从印尼"下游政策"的角度来看，矿端立刻的"一刀切"，易于激化 与下游外资冶炼企业的矛盾，而且从往年来看，印尼的政策动态调整空间较大，2026Q1 将是跟踪政策落 地的重要窗口。不过，如果放眼到长周期，印尼长线防止过剩和偏挺价的心态是明确的，前期低价矿时代 主要为吸引冶炼投 ...

Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on polyolefins by Guotai Junan Futures, covering plastics and polypropylene, including price, supply, demand, inventory, and other aspects [1] Plastics Section Core Viewpoint - The price of plastics is under pressure due to ample supply and weak demand. The market is expected to remain in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand before the Spring Festival, with prices under pressure. The recommended strategy is to short on rebounds [5] Price & Spread - The spot price increase is limited following the futures price rebound, leading to a weaker basis and a stronger 5 - 9 month spread. The import window is repaired, and the non - standard price difference is at a relatively high level [5][14][15] Supply - The total effective production capacity in 2025 increased by 16%, with domestic production increasing by 18%. The supply is ample due to low maintenance in Q4 and some restarts during holidays. Some standard products are being converted to non - standard products, and the import volume may remain high at the beginning of 2026 [5] Demand & Inventory - The demand for agricultural films is in a seasonal off - peak, and the demand for packaging films is short - term and limited. The overall downstream demand is expected to decline. The inventory removal is not smooth, and the social inventory removal is slowing down [5] Polypropylene Section Core Viewpoint - The polypropylene price is under pressure in the off - season. The supply may have marginal changes if PDH plants shut down as expected. The market is also likely to face a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in Q4, with a pessimistic outlook [91] Price & Spread - The basis is weak and volatile, and the month spread is oscillating. The import window is approaching closure, and the export profit to Southeast Asia has limited increase [91][101][105] Supply - The total effective production capacity increased by 12.7% in 2025, with an estimated annual output increase of 16.7%. The planned maintenance at the end of the year is decreasing, but there is an expectation of PDH plant shutdowns in January. The import and export volumes are expected to remain at a basic level [91] Demand & Inventory - The downstream start - up is temporarily stable, but the orders for some industries are seasonally weakening. The inventory removal is not smooth, and the inventory is concentrated in the middle stream, with a higher year - on - year level [91] Investment Strategy Plastics - Single - side: Oscillate weakly, short on rebounds [5] - Inter - period: Not recommended for now [5] - Inter - variety: Not recommended for now [5] Polypropylene - Single - side: Oscillate weakly, short on rebounds [91] - Inter - period: Not recommended for now [91] - Inter - variety: Not recommended for now [91]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price and fluctuates upward, with a neutral - to - strong strength analysis. The short - term scrap - refined price difference and ADC12 - A00 price difference are strengthening. Before the holiday, the price of cast aluminum alloy remained relatively strong, reaching a high of 21,865 yuan/ton. The short - term price may show a high - level oscillation due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum and weakening demand [2][6] - As of December 26, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingot factories and social inventory decreased by 0.15 million tons to 12.91 million tons compared with the previous week. From December 1 - 28, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.928 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 17% and a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 23.411 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In 2026, the policy subsidy will be more targeted, benefiting mid - to - high - end cars [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction End - Quantity and Price - The document presents data such as the price difference between different contracts, capital precipitation, trading volume, and holding volume, but no specific conclusions are drawn from these data [9] 3.2 Transaction End - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - For the cast aluminum alloy inter - period spread cost calculation (inside the warehouse receipt system), the total cost is 104 yuan/ton, including fixed costs of 14.13 yuan/ton and floating costs of 90.25 yuan/ton [12] 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The market's actual spot quotation fluctuates around the Baotai price. The spot price is 22,000 yuan/ton, and the total cost of the warehouse receipt, including storage, handling fees, and capital costs, is 22,961.3 yuan/ton [14] 3.3 Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is continuously decreasing. Scrap aluminum imports are also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate [16][20] 3.4 Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has been raised, and the price difference between recycled and primary aluminum has strengthened. The regional price difference of cast aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns. The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy remains flat, while the monthly operating rate has declined. The current cost calculation of ADC12 shows a loss. The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy has slightly increased, while the social inventory has decreased, and the import window for cast aluminum alloy is currently closed [30][35][40] 3.5 Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Terminal consumption: Fuel vehicles are in the year - end sales push phase, which has an impact on die - casting consumption. The document also presents the production data of new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances [64]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that there is a game between bullish and bearish sentiments in the silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy markets, leading to wide - range fluctuations in the futures prices. The profit has been restored due to the increase in spot prices and the oscillation in futures prices. However, the supply side shows different trends, and the upper space of the futures prices is under pressure [3][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Overall Market Situation - This week, alloy prices fluctuated widely, with the price center of manganese ferroalloy slightly rising. The profit was restored due to the increase in spot prices and the oscillation in futures prices. The supply side showed new start - up and复产 phenomena, and the willingness of factories to hedge was strong, which might put pressure on the futures prices [5]. - In terms of macro - factors, China proposed to implement more proactive and effective macro - policies, and the Central Economic Work Conference released many signals for stable growth. There were no significant overseas macro - factors [5]. - Microscopically, the molten iron output increased month - on - month, and the demand for raw materials was slowly recovering. The fundamental contradictions of manganese ferroalloy continued to accumulate, and the previously shut - down silicon ferroalloy factories resumed production [5]. 2. Futures Market - The silicon ferroalloy 2603 contract fluctuated widely this week, closing at 5,672 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. The trading volume was 776,386 lots, and the open interest was 218,692 lots, a decrease of 27,548 lots month - on - month [8]. - The manganese ferroalloy 2603 contract also fluctuated widely this week, closing at 5,920 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month. The trading volume was 700,274 lots, and the open interest was 267,767 lots, an increase of 4,188 lots month - on - month [8]. 3. Spot Market - The spot prices of silicon ferroalloy in major regions of the country oscillated and increased this week. The aggregated quotation of 75B silicon ferroalloy in the main production areas was 5,220 - 5,320 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 20 - 80 yuan/ton [9]. - The aggregated quotation range of silicon - manganese alloy in major regions of the country was 5,520 - 5,870 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of 10 - 80 yuan/ton. For example, the price of 6517 - type silicon - manganese alloy in Inner Mongolia was 5,650 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 60 yuan/ton) [9]. 4. Manganese Ferroalloy Fundamental Data Supply - This week, the output of manganese ferroalloy was 19.37 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.12 tons (a change rate of + 0.6%). The weekly operating rate was 36.89%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points month - on - month [12]. - Inner Mongolia made the main contribution to the output increase [13]. Demand - A new round of steel procurement is about to start, and steel mills may start the inventory replenishment process [18]. - From the performance of downstream steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and the actual molten iron output rebounded slightly. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 85.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.32 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output was 227.43 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.85 tons, which provided weak support for the demand of manganese ferroalloy [20]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 manganese ferroalloy sample enterprises was 393,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,500 tons. The number of manganese ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 23,518, a month - on - month increase of 241, equivalent to an increase of 1,205 tons, and the converted inventory was 117,590 tons [27]. - In December, the average available days of manganese ferroalloy inventory in steel mills was 15.52 days (- 0.32 days), with different trends in different regions [27]. Raw Materials - The global manganese ore departure volume increased month - on - month, and the short - term supply and demand of manganese ore were in a weak balance. The departure volume from South Africa, Australia, and Gabon increased, while that from Ghana decreased [31]. - The arrival and clearance of manganese ore at ports decreased, but the supply and demand might still maintain a relative balance [38]. - Overseas mining enterprises raised their quotations, and the port prices were closely related to the high clearance demand. The port quotations of various manganese ore varieties in Tianjin Port were firm [44][45]. Profit - The cost center gradually moved up with the increase in ore prices, the futures prices were strong, and the profit of manganese ferroalloy increased with the futures prices [47]. 5. Silicon Ferroalloy Fundamental Data Supply - This week, the output of silicon ferroalloy was 9.89 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 tons. The weekly operating rate was 29.54%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points month - on - month. Inner Mongolia made the main contribution to the output increase [51][52]. Demand - The steel procurement volume of a large factory in Hebei increased month - on - month, and the raw material inventory replenishment process might start [56]. - From the performance of downstream steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and the actual molten iron output rebounded slightly. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 85.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.32 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output was 227.43 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.85 tons [66]. - In terms of non - steel demand, the total output of magnesium metal in December was 8.59 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 17.9%. The output of stainless - steel crude steel in November was 304.86 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59 tons. The export volume of silicon ferroalloy in November was 3.11 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.52% [66]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 silicon ferroalloy sample enterprises was 64,360 tons, a month - on - month increase of 750 tons. The number of silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 11,491, a month - on - month decrease of 391, equivalent to a decrease of 1,955 tons, and the converted inventory was 57,455 tons [67][68]. - In December, the average available days of silicon ferroalloy inventory in steel mills was 15.41 days (- 0.39 days), with different trends in different regions [69]. Profit - The profit of silicon ferroalloy increased with the futures prices, and attention should be paid to the impact of profit restoration on the original operating rhythm of factories [76].

二 〇 二 六 年 度 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：12 月减产幅度接近 10%，逐步兑现减产预期，高频出口数据良好，对棕榈油形成短期支撑， 同时技术买盘强劲，05 合约周涨 0.19%，但打到区间上沿后进一步突破力度不足，仍以震荡为主。 豆油：缺乏南美天气炒作，美豆上方驱动有限，区间震荡操作，豆油 05 合约周涨 0.33%。 2026 年 01 月 04 日 棕榈油：马盘偏弱运行，关注原油波动外溢 豆油：美豆走弱，豆油月差故事多于单边 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 本周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：MPOA 数据显示 12 月减产幅度 8%，逐步接近 175 万吨产量水平，同时 ITS 数据显示前 25 日 出口增 2%，12 月大概率将开启季节性去库进程，因此在 8200 的技术买点涌现大量买盘，重回逢低做多的 减产季常态化交易选择。虽然目前保守认为仍然需要更多月份的产量数据以验证市场现在关于棕榈高产的 种种猜测，究竟是园区管理及劳工增加带来的常态化产量抬升还是树龄及降雨导致的增产结果，但随着雨 季高强度降水的到来，如果 12 月顺利环比减产至 170 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are seasonally weak in the short - term, but the logic of positive long - term demand is strengthened. The price is expected to be in a high - level shock, with the upper limit of the price range moving down. The expected positive demand provides support for the lithium salt price [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Price Trends - Lithium carbonate futures contracts saw a high - level correction. The 2601 contract closed at 120,000 yuan/ton, down 7,800 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 2605 contract closed at 121,580 yuan/ton, down 8,940 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot price rose 6,600 yuan/ton week - on - week to 118,500 yuan/ton. The SMM futures - spot basis (2601 contract) rose 14,400 yuan/ton to - 1,500 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader premium/discount quote was - 1,740 yuan/ton, strengthening 290 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 2601 - 2605 contract spread was - 1,580 yuan/ton, strengthening 1,140 yuan/ton month - on - month [1] 3.2 Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Policy**: In 2026, the car trade - in policy was issued. For scrapping old cars and buying new energy vehicles, a subsidy of 12% of the new car's sales price is given, with a maximum of 20,000 yuan; for replacing with new energy vehicles, an 8% subsidy of the new car's sales price is given, with a maximum of 15,000 yuan [2] - **Supply**: The domestic weekly lithium carbonate production was 22,420 tons, a slight increase of 259 tons from last week. In terms of raw materials, the spot inventory of lithium ore has arrived at ports one after another, and the spot inventory at ports of traders has increased slightly [2] - **Demand**: Recently, many cathode material manufacturers have announced maintenance. If the maintenance is carried out as planned, the production of lithium iron phosphate cathodes in January will decrease by 13.2% month - on - month, and that of ternary cathodes will decrease slightly by 1.3% month - on - month; the production of lithium iron phosphate cells will decrease by 4.8% month - on - month, and that of ternary cells will decrease by 9% month - on - month. At the terminal, from December 1 - 28, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market reached 1.192 million, a year - on - year increase of 5% and a month - on - month increase of 1%; from December 22 - 28, the energy storage winning bids (excluding centralized procurement) were 13.7GWh, a year - on - year increase of 76% and a month - on - month increase of 30% [2] - **Inventory**: This week, the lithium carbonate inventory was 109,605 tons, a decrease of 168 tons from last week. The inventories of upstream and downstream are still decreasing, and downstream has no restocking demand. This week, 2,420 new futures warehouse receipts were registered, with a total of 20,281 lots [2] 3.3 Future Market Views - The weakening signs of the fundamentals in the off - season are gradually emerging. The weekly inventory reduction speed has significantly slowed down, the number of cathode maintenance enterprises has increased, overseas ores have arrived at ports one after another, the overall supply remains at a high level, and the upward price space is limited. On the demand side, although the subsidy for mid - and low - end models in the trade - in policy has decreased, the implementation time is earlier than last year, and the market's previous pessimistic expectations for the power sector have been falsified. The energy storage shows a positive trend from the winning bid situation to the year - end rush installation, and the positive expectation logic provides strong support for the lithium salt price [3] 3.4 Investment Strategies - **Unilateral**: High - level shock, with the upper limit of the price range moving down. The price of the futures main contract is expected to operate in the range of 115,000 - 135,000 yuan/ton [4] - **Inter - period**: No recommendation [4] - **Hedging**: Upstream enterprises should choose the opportunity to hedge at high levels to lock in off - season profits [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (12.29 - 1.4), the spot market for live pigs showed a pattern of strengthening first and then weakening. The prices of 20KG piglets in Henan and live pigs in Henan increased slightly, while the price of 50KG binary sows remained unchanged. The supply was tight due to significant reduction in group sales at the end of the month and strong reluctance of individual farmers to sell, and the demand decreased after the holiday. The average slaughter weight decreased slightly. In the futures market, the price of live pig futures trended strongly. The LH2603 contract had a higher closing price compared to the previous week, and the basis widened [2]. - Next week (1.5 - 1.11), the spot price of live pigs is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply is expected to increase continuously until March 2026 according to piglet data, and the supply pressure has not been effectively relieved. The demand has over - anticipated the market but has also advanced the speculative demand for restocking. After the New Year's Day, the demand enters a vacuum period, and enterprises have a strong willingness to slaughter and reduce weight in January, putting pressure on the spot price. For the LH2603 futures contract, it is also under pressure, with a short - term support level at 11000 yuan/ton and a pressure level at 12200 yuan/ton [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review (12.29 - 1.4) - **Spot Market**: The price of 20KG piglets in Henan rose from 21.1 yuan/kg last week to 21.75 yuan/kg, the price of live pigs in Henan rose from 12.08 yuan/kg last week to 12.45 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows remained at 1546 yuan/head. The average slaughter weight was 124.54KG, a 0.2% month - on - month decrease [2]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2603 contract had a highest price of 11880 yuan/ton, a lowest price of 11670 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 11795 yuan/ton (compared to 11645 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2603 contract was 655 yuan/ton (compared to 435 yuan/ton last week) [2]. 3.2 Market Outlook (1.5 - 1.11) - **Spot Market**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is in a vacuum period after the holiday. Enterprises have a strong willingness to slaughter and reduce weight in January, so the spot price will be under pressure [3]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2603 contract is under pressure. Attention should be paid to changes in social sentiment. The short - term support level is 11000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12200 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Other Data - **Basis and Spread**: The basis this week was 655 yuan/ton, and the LH2603 - LH2605 spread was - 370 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply**: The average weight this week was 124.54KG (compared to 124.79KG last week). In October, the pork production was 5.605 billion tons, a 5.5% month - on - month increase, and the pork import was 7.14 million tons, an 11.14% month - on - month decrease [12].

螺纹钢&热轧卷板周度报告 黑色分析师：李亚飞 投资咨询号：Z0021184 日期：2026年01月04日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 螺纹&热卷观点：原料冬储和复产预期叠加，钢厂利润预计压缩 | 2026/1/2 | 供应 | | （万吨） | | | | | 需求 | | （万吨） | | | | | 库存 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 当周值 | | 环差 | | 同差 | | 当周值 | | 环差 | | | 同差 | 当周值 | | 环差 | | | 同差 | | 铁水 | 227 4 . | | 0 . | 8 | 2 2 . | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 废钢 | #N/A | | #N/A | | #N/A | | #N/A | | #N/A | ...