Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for caustic soda is short - term weak [5][6] - The investment rating for PVC is low - level oscillation [9][10] Report's Core View - Caustic soda currently lacks upward drivers, with the main obstacles being exports and alumina. The market is short - term weak as the futures market is trading the pressure on spot prices in Shandong, alumina pre - production stockpiling hasn't started, and exports haven't improved [6] - PVC is in a situation of high production and high inventory, and exports may face policy disturbances with a potential slowdown in growth. The market trend is under pressure, and it will experience low - level oscillation [10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Viewpoint Overview Caustic Soda - Supply: The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 83.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8%. There were production cuts and shutdowns in Northwest, Central, East, and South China, while in North China, there were both production cuts and capacity increases [5] - Demand: In the alumina sector, high production and high inventory are compressing profits, and marginal capacity supply may be affected by profits. Non - aluminum demand is rising seasonally. Export orders are poor recently, and the price difference between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda is weak [5][6] - Viewpoint: Caustic soda lacks upward drivers, and the futures market is trading the price cuts of spot goods in Shandong. It is short - term weak [6] PVC - Supply: The high - production structure of PVC is difficult to change in the short term. There are still many new capacities to be put into production, especially from August to September, with an expected production of 1.1 million tons [10] - Demand: The competition in the PVC export market has intensified in 2025. Domestic demand related to the real estate industry is still weak, and enterprises have low inventory - building willingness [10] - Viewpoint: PVC will experience low - level oscillation, with the 01 contract having an upper pressure level of 5000, lower support levels of 4850 and 4700 [10] 2. Caustic Soda Price and Spread - Price: The price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is about 2,656 yuan/ton [15] - Spread: The 01 basis of caustic soda has strengthened, and the 11 - 1 spread has weakened. The export market still has support, but recent export orders are poor. The regional arbitrage space is limited, but attention should be paid to the high spread between flake caustic soda and liquid caustic soda. The spread between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda is lower than the evaporation cost, which is negative for caustic soda [19][20][35] 3. Caustic Soda Supply - Market Structure: Production and inventory are both declining, and the structure is relatively strong. The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 83.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8% [41] - Inventory: The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more in China is 356,800 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 7.99% and a year - on - year increase of 15.48% [43] - Production Capacity: There are still many new caustic soda production capacities to be put into production in 2025, but overall production may fall short of expectations. The actual capacity expansion will be weaker than expected, with a potential capacity increase of about 2% [47][50] - Profit: Liquid chlorine is weak, leading to a decline in the overall profit of caustic soda. The cost of marginal production facilities in Shandong is calculated to be 2,277 yuan/ton [52][54] 4. Caustic Soda Demand - Alumina: Alumina production is at a high level, inventory is rising, and profits are declining. Attention should be paid to the alumina production capacity scheduled to be put into operation at the end of this year and the pre - production tank - filling demand [79][89] - Pulp Industry: The pulp industry is continuing to expand production capacity, and demand is gradually shifting to the peak season [91] - Other Industries: The operating rates of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing industries are rising, and short - term demand is increasing month - on - month. The operating rates of the water treatment and ternary precursor industries are stable [103][105][107] 5. PVC Price and Spread - Basis and Spread: The PVC basis is oscillating, and the 1 - 5 spread is oscillating weakly [114] 6. PVC Supply and Demand - Supply: The operating rate of PVC is increasing month - on - month and is still relatively high year - on - year. There are still seasonal maintenance plans from September to October in 2025. There are many new PVC production capacities to be put into production, with a total of 2.2 million tons expected to be put into operation in 2025 [120][122][123] - Profit: The integrated production facilities in Northwest China have decent profits. In 2025, special attention should be paid to the profit of caustic soda [125] - Inventory: PVC production enterprises and the social inventory are both increasing [129] - Demand: The real - estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered. The overall operating rate of PVC downstream industries is increasing month - on - month. PVC export expectations are weakening, and warehouse receipts are continuously increasing [134][140][146]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals and macro - sentiment of synthetic rubber are in intensified contradiction, and it will operate in a volatile manner. The supply pressure of butadiene is the main contradiction in the medium - to - long term, and its fundamentals are still under significant pressure [2][4][6]. - For synthetic rubber, the supply growth rate is higher than the demand growth rate under the pattern of both supply and demand increase, and the inventory pressure of butadiene rubber has increased. However, due to the expected preventive interest rate cut by the Fed and the "anti - involution" policy, the market has certain support, and the price will fluctuate within the fundamental valuation range [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Synthetic Rubber Weekly Viewpoint - **Supply**: Shandong Weite, Taixiang Yubu, and Haopu New Materials' butadiene rubber plants stopped for maintenance this week. The output of high - cis butadiene rubber was 29,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.52%, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.48%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.68 percentage points. As of September 10, 2025, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased by 8.15% week - on - week [4]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of sample tire production enterprises increased significantly this week and is expected to remain stable next week. The substitution demand remains high, and the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4][5]. - **Strategy**: For unilateral trading, short at high levels within the fundamental static valuation range without chasing short positions, and also refer to macro - sentiment. The upper pressure is 12,000 - 12,100 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton. For cross - variety trading, the nr - br spread will fluctuate in the short term [4][5]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene Viewpoint - **Supply**: In the current cycle (20250905 - 0911), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 103,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18%. Next week, it is expected to be about 102,500 tons, still showing a downward trend [6]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. The demand from ABS is expected to remain constant, and the demand from SBS remains stable [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic butadiene samples decreased slightly this week, with the sample enterprise inventory down 0.81% week - on - week and the sample port inventory down 17.29% week - on - week. However, there are still expectations of ship arrivals, so inventory changes need to be closely monitored [8]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity**: Butadiene is in a state of continuous expansion to match the expansion of downstream industries, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages [13]. - **Supply - side - Operating Rate**: The operating rate of butadiene has fluctuated, and many plants have experienced maintenance or shutdowns [17][18]. - **Net Imports**: The net imports of butadiene have shown certain fluctuations, and the import profit is also affected by market prices [20]. - **Demand - side - Capacity and Operation of Downstream Products**: The capacities of downstream products such as butadiene rubber, styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS are expanding, and their operating rates and production plans vary [22][23][29][33]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Supply of Butadiene Rubber**: The output of butadiene rubber has fluctuated, and many plants have normal operations, maintenance plans, or shutdowns. The cost, profit, and inventory of butadiene rubber have also shown corresponding changes [43][44][45]. - **Demand of Butadiene Rubber - Tire**: The inventory and operating rates of domestic tires (including all - steel tires and semi - steel tires) in Shandong Province have shown certain trends, and the demand for butadiene rubber from the tire industry is affected by these factors [57][58].

动力煤产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 林小春 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000526 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0020198 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年9月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 02 动力煤基本面数据 动力煤港口现货报价小幅回升 资料来源 Wind 、Mysteel iFind国泰君安期货研究所 ： 资料来源： Wind 、Mysteel、iFind、国泰君安期货研究所 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 中国沿海电煤采购价格指数:成交价(Q5500) 中国沿海电煤采购价格指数:成交价(Q5000) 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 元/吨 大同南郊动力煤-5500-车板含税价 鄂尔多斯-电煤-5500-坑口含税价 榆林烟煤末-6000-坑口含税价 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 ...

聚酯数据周报 国泰君安期货研究所·贺晓勤（高级分析师），钱嘉寅（联系人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年9月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周PX观点总结：趋势偏弱 | 供应 | 国内PX开工率87.8%（+4.1%）。本周福海创两条分别为80万吨的PX装置升温重启，福佳大化70万吨PX装置检修计划亦未兑现，然中海油惠 州1#95万吨及2#150万吨PX装置恢复近满负荷运行。后续持续跟踪浙石化装置检修时间公布及盛虹重整装置停车对PX环节的影响。 | | --- | --- | | | 海外周内SK仁川短暂着火并未影响PX开工，另外日本ENEOS19万吨、出光德山26.5万吨装置有望重启。 | | 需求 | 本周PTA负荷76.8%（+4%）。独山能源250万吨重启，恒力惠州250万吨重启，未来福海创450万吨装置可能重启。10月份关注独山能源PTA 新装置投产进度。英力士125万吨计划10月中旬检修，10-11月份恒力大连装置或有检修。 | | ...

Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 观点与逻辑 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 美豆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 农产品组 谢义钦 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017082 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 市场价格 02 资料来源：同花顺、钢联、国泰君安期货研究 01 美豆多空因素与观点 | 总体观点 | | --- | | 南美丰产，没有牛市基础；成本支撑，大跌概率小，总体震荡偏强，区间950-1150美分/蒲式耳 | | 利空因素 | | 1、美国对全球加关税可能导致美豆出口形势变差 | | 2、美豆主产区天气良好，单产前景预期较高 | | 3、巴西2025/26年度种植面积预计增加1.8% | | 利多因素 | | 1、生柴政策、中美关系缓和预期等支撑价格 | | 2、美国大豆平衡表紧平衡 | | 3、拉尼娜天气可 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 玻璃纯碱周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 日期：2025年9月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周玻璃观点：震荡思路 | | 截至20250911，国内玻璃生产线在剔除僵尸产线后共计296条(20万吨/日），其中在产225条，冷修停产71条。全国浮法玻璃日产量为16.02 | | --- | --- | | 供应 | 万吨，比4日+0.38%。 周内无点火，放水浮法产线。凯里市凯荣玻璃有限公司设计产能600吨/日原产绿玻，周内转产欧洲灰；株洲醴陵旗滨玻璃有限公司三线500 | | | 吨/日海洋蓝周内正色；河南省中联玻璃有限责任公司一线600吨/日原产殴灰，周内改产黑玻。 | | | 截至20250901，全国深加工样本企业订单天数均值10.4天，环比+7.8%，同比+8.3%。8月下旬至今，全国各大区多数深加工订单反馈环比未有 | | 需求 | 明显变化，多数排单3-10天居多，部分区域原片价格上移情况下，本地钢化中空产品价格持续稳定，行业整 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term main contract of methanol shows a range - bound pattern with both upside pressure and downside support. The upside pressure comes from the supply side of the fundamentals, such as high imports and high daily production leading to increased inventory. The downside support is from the expected improvement of fundamentals and the tone of China's anti - involution policy. Overall, methanol prices are expected to be range - bound and fluctuate with macro - sentiment next week [2][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Methanol Summary Supply - China's methanol production decreased this week (20250905 - 0911), with the output from capacity involved in maintenance and production cuts exceeding that from restored capacity. The production was 1,919,265 tons, a decrease of 43,550 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 84.58%, a 2.37% drop. However, the planned maintenance and production - cut devices are expected to decrease and the restored devices to increase, so the overall market supply may rise [4]. - For olefins, Shenhua Xinjiang is expected to restart while Qinghai Salt Lake's olefin plant continues to be shut down, and the industry's operating rate is expected to rise after offsetting. For traditional downstream products, dimethyl ether's overall capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to increase; the overall capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid is expected to rise; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to decline; and there is a possibility of production reduction in chlorides [4]. Demand - The capacity utilization rate of different downstream products of methanol has different trends. Dimethyl ether and glacial acetic acid are expected to see an increase in capacity utilization, while formaldehyde is expected to decline, and chlorides may reduce production [4]. Inventory - As of September 10, 2025, 11:30, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 342,600 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous period, a 1.31% drop; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered were 250,700 tons, an increase of 9,400 tons, a 3.91% rise. The port sample inventory was 1,550,300 tons, an increase of 122,600 tons, an 8.59% increase, with continued significant inventory accumulation [4]. View - The short - term main contract is range - bound. The upside is limited by supply - side fundamentals, and the downside is supported by expected fundamental improvement and the anti - involution policy. It is expected that methanol prices will operate within a range and fluctuate with macro - sentiment next week [4]. Strategy - Unilateral: The near - end is weak unilaterally, while the far - end has expected support. The upper pressure on the 01 contract is 2,430 - 2,440 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 2,350 - 2,360 yuan/ton. - Inter - period: The 10 - 01/11 - 01 month spreads show a reverse arbitrage pattern, and the 1 - 5 month spread enters a short - term oscillation pattern. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage at high levels. - Inter - variety: The spread between MA and PP enters an oscillation pattern [4]. 3.2 Price and Spread - The report presents multiple charts showing the trends of basis, month spreads, warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price differences of methanol from 2020 to 2025 [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22]. 3.3 Supply New Capacity Summary - From 2024 to 2025, there have been multiple new methanol plants in China and overseas. In 2024, the total capacity expansion in China was 4 million tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 8.4 million tons. Internationally, the total capacity expansion in 2024 was 3.55 million tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 3.3 million tons [24]. Maintenance Summary - A list of domestic methanol plant shutdowns and production cuts is provided, including information on provinces, enterprises, capacities, maintenance start and end dates, durations, actual and theoretical daily and total losses. The total affected capacity is 8.54 million tons [26]. Production and Operating Rate - Charts show the trends of methanol production and capacity utilization rates in China and different regions, as well as production by different processes from 2018 to 2025 [27][29][30][31][32][33]. Import - Related - Charts display the trends of China's monthly methanol import volume, import cost, weekly arrival volume, and import profit from 2020 to 2025 [36][37][38][39]. Cost and Profit - The report shows the trends of production costs and profits of methanol produced by different processes in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [41][42][43][45][46][47][48]. 3.4 Demand Downstream Operating Rate - Charts present the trends of capacity utilization rates of methanol downstream products such as methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, etc. from 2018 to 2025 [51][52][53][54][55]. Downstream Profit - The report shows the trends of production profits of methanol downstream products in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [57][58][59][60][61][62][63][64]. MTO and Traditional Downstream Procurement and Inventory - Charts display the procurement volumes of MTO production enterprises in different regions and the procurement volumes and raw material inventories of traditional downstream manufacturers in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [65][66][67][68][69][70][71][72][73][74][75][76][77][78][79]. 3.5 Inventory Factory Inventory - Charts show the trends of methanol factory inventories in China and different regions from 2018 to 2025 [81][82][83][84]. Port Inventory - Charts present the trends of methanol port inventories in China and different regions from 2018 to 2025 [86][87][88][89].

李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 9 月 14 日 棕榈油：产地累库预期，回调压力逐步消化 豆油：美豆暂获支撑，区间震荡 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：基本面驱动暂时充分，盘面正在逐步消化产地累库预期导致的回调压力。本周跟随美豆油及 国内商品情绪波动为主，棕榈油 01 合约周跌 1.69%。 豆油：市场交易四季度缺豆情形暂缓，油脂板块高位震荡整理，豆油上涨动能不足，01 合约周跌 0.93%。 本周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：本周欧美汽柴油裂解持续处于同比高位，欧洲 SAF 及对中国 UCO 的采购价格还在持续飙升中， 马来 UCO FOB 与 CPO FOB 价差继续扩大，欧洲需求支撑暂未有结束迹象。产地基本面上，8 月马来需求结 构与市场预估存在差别，但是库存符合预估范围，报告总体中性。9 月降雨增加或使全月产量持平或转降， 仍预估在 180-185 万吨区间，8 月有可能成为今年产量高点，全年维持 1940 万吨产量判断。9 月马来出 口量几乎肯定会从印尼夺回更多份额，但印度的采购放缓，其它地区自 7 月开始表现出一定 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Short - term**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading. Pay attention to the positive impact of inventory reduction in China on SC crude oil [6]. - **Medium - to - long - term**: There is significant downward pressure on oil prices. By the end of this year and the beginning of next year, Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel [8]. 3. Summary by Directory **Overview** - **Supply**: Global crude oil supply shows the characteristic of "incremental release but limited actual increase". OPEC+ plans to gradually lift a 1.65 million - barrel - per - day production cut starting from October, with an initial increase of 137,000 barrels per day, but the actual increase may be only 70,000 barrels per day. Non - OPEC+ supply, such as US shale oil, is expected to decline by 150,000 barrels per day next year due to low oil prices. Geopolitical risks also disrupt supply [6]. - **Demand**: Global crude oil demand presents a "structurally differentiated" situation. China's demand growth engine weakens, while India, Southeast Asia, and Africa become new growth points. Overall, the demand side faces challenges of "slowing total growth and reconstructing category demand" [7]. - **Strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see; long - term, there is a large downward pressure on oil prices. Strategies include unilateral wait - and - see, long - term short - selling on rallies, holding light - position positive spreads (buy SC11, sell SC12), and potential reversals in EFS spreads and SC - Dubai spreads [8]. **Macro** - Monitor the Fed's interest rate cuts as the gold - to - oil ratio has soared again. Overseas PPI has increased, and attention should be paid to inflation transmission. The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing has rebounded [14][15][20]. **Supply** - **OPEC+ Core Members**: Many OPEC+ members have different supply situations. For example, Iraq's production is limited, while the UAE aims for higher export quotas. Saudi Arabia has significantly reduced its official selling prices for Asia in October. There are also supply disruptions in Russia due to attacks on refineries [10]. - **Non - OPEC+**: The US shale oil production is expected to decline next year. Brazil, Guyana, and other regions have supply increases. There are also various geopolitical and supply - related issues in other countries [11]. **Demand** - **Regional Demand**: China's demand shows a complex situation with a decline in gasoline demand due to high electric vehicle penetration but an increase in petrochemical raw material demand. India's demand rebounds after the monsoon season. European diesel demand remains weak, while North American demand declines due to the popularity of hybrid vehicles [12]. - **Refinery开工率**: US and European refinery operating rates are seasonally declining, while the operating rates of major refineries and independent refineries in China are rising [59]. **Inventory** - **US**: US commercial inventories and Cushing region inventories are stable, but the latter is significantly lower than the historical average. - **Europe**: European diesel inventories are rebounding, and gasoline inventories are decreasing. - **China**: Domestic refined oil profit margins are falling [62][67][69]. **Price and Spreads** - **Basis**: North American basis is oscillating. - **Calendar Spreads**: Calendar spreads have a slight rebound. - **SC vs. Overseas Markets**: SC is stronger than overseas markets, and its calendar spreads are rebounding. - **Net Long Positions**: Net long positions are declining [73][74][77].

CONTENTS 综述 01 供应 02 需求及库存 03 行情走势 04 其他 05 市场回顾 新西兰船期数据 国内主港库存 国内主港日均出货量 行情走势 现货价格行情 主流材种区域价差 树种、规格间价差 海运费 汇率 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 现货价格走势： 对于主流交割品3.9米30+辐射松，山东市场报价 745 元/方，较上周 持平，江苏市场报价 765 元/方，较上周 持平，目前两地区价差为 -20。山东地区3.9米40+辐射松报价 850 元/方，较上 周 持平；山东地区5.9米30+辐射松报价 785 元/方，较上周 持平。欧洲材云杉、冷杉在江苏市 场上的交易量较少，仍处于缺货状态。 截止到9月7日，9月从新西兰出发的船只总共有10条，其中有6条去往中国大陆，4条去往中国台湾、韩 国减载。9月出发的船只中，预计9月到港的约为10条，10月到港的有0条。预计9月到货121万方。 供应： 国泰君安期货·黑色与建材 原木周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 期货从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年9月14日 Guotai Junan F ...