Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 21, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to favorable rainfall in the US Midwest this week alleviating the pressure from previous high - temperatures, and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations also pressured the market. The soybean crop's growth pressure is expected to be reduced by the rainfall despite a brief high - temperature period in the mid - week in the US Midwest. The 8 - month 1 - day tariff deadline may intensify negative market sentiment as few countries have reached agreements with the US. As of July 20, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, lower than the previous week and market expectations [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures - DCE Bean 1 2509 closed at 4199 yuan/ton (+1, +0.02%) during the day session and 4188 yuan/ton (+12, +0.29%) during the night session. DCE Bean Meal 2509 closed at 3069 yuan/ton (+26, +0.85%) during the day session and 3061 yuan/ton (+2, +0.07%) during the night session. CBOT Soybean 11 closed at 1026.75 cents/bushel (-8.25, -0.80%), and CBOT Bean Meal 12 closed at 284.9 dollars/short ton (-3.9, -1.35%) [1]. Spot - In Shandong, the spot price of bean meal (43%) was 2920 - 2950 yuan/ton, flat; different basis prices were given for different months. In East China, the price was 2900 - 2930 yuan/ton, up 10 or 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, with corresponding basis prices for different months. In South China, the price was 2920 - 2990 yuan/ton, -10 to +10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and Hainan Aosika had specific spot basis prices [1]. Main Industry Data - The trading volume of bean meal was 14.95 million tons per day, and the previous trading volume was 14.31 million tons per day. The inventory data was not available, and the previous inventory was 84.29 million tons per week [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On July 21, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. The main reasons were the expected favorable rainfall in the US Midwest this week to relieve the high - temperature pressure and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate as of July 20 was 68%, lower than the previous week and market expectations [3]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of bean meal and bean 1 was 0, referring to the price fluctuations of the main contract during the day session on the report day [3].

期 货 研 究 2025 年 07 月 22 日 铝：震荡上行 氧化铝：短期情绪偏强 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【综合快讯】 1. 美欧贸易协议前景黯淡，欧盟考虑"核选项"反制。报道称，美国提出了更严苛的贸易条件，包括 提高关税至 15% 或更高、维持现行的 25% 汽车关税，甚至可能对药品征收 100% 关税。面对美方强硬要求， 德国态度转变，欧盟内部日趋强硬，并考虑动用"反胁迫工具"等报复措施。（华尔街见闻） 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20840 | 330 | 425 | 445 | 360 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20860 | l | l | । | l | | | | LME铝3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report Based on macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis such as the golden section line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the trend of today's futures main contracts. Most contracts are expected to show a strong or weak shock trend, with specific resistance and support levels provided for each contract [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Forecast Highlights - Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4090 and 4122 points and support levels at 4065 and 4046 points [2]. - Ten - year and thirty - year Treasury bond futures are likely to fluctuate weakly. The ten - year T2509 has support at 108.65 and 108.60 yuan and resistance at 108.79 and 108.83 yuan; the thirty - year TL2509 has support at 119.7 and 119.5 yuan and resistance at 120.1 and 120.3 yuan [3]. - Gold and silver futures are expected to fluctuate strongly. Silver futures may hit a new high since listing. Gold futures AU2510 has resistance at 789.9 and 794.9 yuan/gram and support at 783.5 and 781.8 yuan/gram; silver futures AG2510 has resistance at 9450 and 9500 yuan/kg and support at 9300 and 9273 yuan/kg [3]. - Base metal futures such as copper, aluminum, and zinc generally show a strong or wide - range shock trend, with corresponding resistance and support levels provided [3][4]. - Industrial product futures like industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and coke are expected to fluctuate strongly, while some contracts like glass and soda ash are also predicted to have a strong shock trend [4][5]. - Energy futures: Crude oil futures are likely to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract SC2509 having support at 502 and 500 yuan/barrel and resistance at 512 and 516 yuan/barrel [7]. - Agricultural product futures: Soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate weakly, and natural rubber futures are likely to fluctuate strongly [8]. 2. Macro Information and Trading Tips - European Council President Costa and European Commission President von der Leyen will visit China on July 24. President Xi Jinping will meet them, and Premier Li Qiang will co - host the 25th China - EU Leaders' Meeting [9]. - The "Housing Rental Regulations" will come into effect on September 15, 2025, aiming to standardize the housing rental market [9]. - China's July LPR remained unchanged for the second consecutive month. The 1 - year variety is reported at 3.0%, and the over - 5 - year variety is at 3.5%. Market institutions expect a further decline in the second half of the year [9]. - The first half of 2025 saw stable and positive economic performance. Fiscal policy will continue to play a proactive role in the second half of the year [10]. - The EU's sanctions list against Chinese enterprises and financial institutions has been responded to by China, which urges the EU to stop the wrong practice [10]. - The total electricity consumption in June was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The cumulative electricity consumption from January to June was 4841.8 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [10]. - The pilot rules for cross - border asset management in the Hainan Free Trade Port have been released, with an initial pilot scale limit of 10 billion yuan [10]. - In the 27th Japanese Senate election, the ruling coalition lost its majority in the Senate. Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru will continue to serve, but the opposition may propose a no - confidence motion [11]. - Fitch downgraded the outlook of 25% of US industries in 2025 to "deteriorating" due to policy risks [11]. - The "OBBBA" bill passed by the Trump administration will increase the US fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade [11]. - The EU may hold a meeting this week to prepare for the situation of failing to reach a trade agreement with the US and may use the "anti - coercion tool" [12]. - The EU is formulating a new bill requiring large enterprises and car rental companies to switch to electric vehicle procurement from 2030, which will affect about 60% of new car sales in the EU [12]. - Hungary is in talks with Serbia and Russia to build a new oil pipeline, which is expected to be operational in 2027 [13]. - The UK government has launched a public consultation on the licensing plan for autonomous passenger services, aiming for the launch of autonomous taxis and other services in spring 2026 [13]. 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced that the listing benchmark price of the first - batch of propylene futures contracts on July 22 is 6350 yuan/ton [13]. - In June, global alumina production was 6.045 million tons. China's alumina production is expected to be 3.625 million tons [13]. - On July 21, international precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.55% and COMEX silver futures up 2.02%. International oil prices slightly declined [14]. - On July 21, London base metals closed higher across the board. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down 2 points, and the central parity rate was down 24 points [14][15]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook Stock Index Futures - On July 21, the CSI 300 stock index futures main contract IF2509 opened slightly higher, fluctuated upward, and closed at 4064.8 points, up 0.73%. It approached the resistance at 4070 points [15]. - The Shanghai 50 stock index futures main contract IH2509 opened slightly higher, fluctuated slightly stronger, and closed at 2771.2 points, up 0.29% [16]. - The CSI 500 stock index futures main contract IC2509 opened slightly higher, fluctuated upward, and closed at 6055.6 points, up 1.04%. It broke through the 6050 - point resistance [16]. - The CSI 1000 stock index futures main contract IM2509 opened slightly higher, fluctuated upward, and closed at 6453.2 points, up 0.93%. It broke through the 6460 - point resistance [17]. - The stock market on July 21 showed a positive trend, with most indexes rising. The A - share trading volume increased to 1.73 trillion yuan [18]. - In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index closed up 0.68%, and the number of IPOs and fundraising amount increased significantly [19]. - US and European stock markets showed mixed trends on July 21. The report predicts that stock index futures will fluctuate strongly in July 2025 and on July 22, with specific resistance and support levels provided [19][20][21]. Treasury Bond Futures - On July 21, the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract T2509 opened lower, fluctuated weakly, and closed at 108.760 yuan, down 0.05%. The 30 - year main contract also declined [38]. - The central bank conducted 170.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 21, with a net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan [38]. - The report predicts that the ten - year and thirty - year Treasury bond futures will fluctuate weakly on July 22, with specific support and resistance levels [39][43]. Precious Metal Futures - On July 21, the gold futures main contract AU2510 opened slightly higher, fluctuated upward, and closed at 781.70 yuan/gram, up 0.82%. It is expected to fluctuate widely in July 2025 and strongly on July 22 [43][44]. - The silver futures main contract AG2510 opened slightly higher, fluctuated weakly on July 21, but showed strong upward momentum in the night session. It is expected to break through new highs on July 22 and fluctuate strongly in July 2025 [50][52]. Base Metal Futures - On July 21, copper, aluminum, zinc, and other base metal futures generally showed upward trends. The report provides their closing prices, price changes, and resistance and support levels, as well as the expected trends in July 2025 and on July 22 [57][61][71]. Industrial Product Futures - Industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and other industrial product futures showed strong upward trends on July 21. The report predicts their trends on July 22, including the likelihood of approaching resistance levels or breaking through [80][81]. Energy Futures - On July 21, the crude oil futures main contract SC2509 opened slightly higher, fluctuated downward, and closed at 512.3 yuan/barrel, up 0.23% (down 0.68% based on the closing price). It is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 22 and strongly and widely in July 2025 [106]. Agricultural Product Futures - On July 21, soybean meal and natural rubber futures showed upward trends. The report predicts that soybean meal futures will fluctuate weakly on July 22, while natural rubber futures will fluctuate strongly [116][118].

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 2025年07月22日 | 黄金：震荡上行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：突破上行 | 2 | | 铜：库存减少，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 6 | | 铅：供需矛盾预期，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：价格走弱 | 9 | | 铝：震荡上行 | 11 | | 氧化铝：短期情绪偏强 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：宏观情绪提振预期，现实限制弹性 | 13 | | 不锈钢：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面决定弹性 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 22 日 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | 贵 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 22 日 PP：现货小涨，成交清淡 张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 zhangchi4@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 PP 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PP2509 | 7091 | 0.98% | 361,218 | -20749 | | 价 差 | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | | | | 09合约基差 | -61 | | -33 | | | | 09-01合约价差 | - 1 | | 3 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6960 - | 7110 | 6950 - | 7080 | | | 华东 | 7030 - | 7150 | 6980 - | 7120 | | | 华南 | 7010 - | 7200 | 6970 - | 7200 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 资料来源：卓创资讯，隆众资讯、国泰君安期货 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests a strategy of shorting the EC2510 contract on rallies and holding the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads. The 2508 contract's performance depends on Maersk's 32 - week freight rates, with limited unilateral trading value. The 2510 contract, in the traditional off - season, should be shorted on rallies, but the downward trend may not be smooth [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Data - **Futures Contracts**: The EC2508 contract closed at 2,291.9, up 3.26%, with 7,390 in trading volume, 14,037 in open interest, and a decrease of 879 in open interest. The EC2510 contract closed at 1,592.7, down 2.35%, with 69,273 in trading volume, 51,185 in open interest, and a decrease of 186 in open interest. The EC2512 contract closed at 1,742.2, down 3.72%, with 7,755 in trading volume, 8,114 in open interest, and an increase of 60 in open interest [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: On July 21, 2025, the SCFIS European route index was 2,400.50 points, down 0.9%; the SCFIS US - West route index was 1,301.81 points, up 2.8%. The SCFI European route index was 2,079 $/TEU, down 1.0%; the SCFI US - West route index was 2,142 $/FEU, down 2.4% [1]. 2. Spot Freight Rates - **Gemini Alliance**: Maersk's 31 - week Shanghai - Rotterdam opening price was 3,070 $/FEU (up 70 $/FEU from the previous period), and the latest price was 3,170 $/FEU. Hapag - Lloyd's FAK in late July was around 3,300 $/FEU [8]. - **OA Alliance**: The FAK in late July was around 3,500 $/FEU on average. Evergreen's online e - commerce platform quoted 3,760 $/FEU in August, up 100 - 200 $/FEU from early July [8]. - **PA Alliance**: ONE and HMM's rates in late July remained the same, Yangming's decreased by 100, with an average of around 3,300 $/FEU. ONE's offline price in early August remained the same, and the online e - commerce platform increased by 300 $/FEU [8]. - **MSC**: The FAK in early August increased by 200 to 3,640 $/FEU, the same as in early July [8]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - **Cargo Volume**: Benefiting from strong FOB cargo volume, shipping companies' loading conditions at the end of July were optimistic, and the cargo volume in early August was still supported. On a monthly basis, August is likely to see an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, but the inflection point of cargo volume is unclear [8]. 4. Contract Analysis - **2508 Contract**: Its performance depends on Maersk's 32 - week freight rates. In the neutral scenario, the 08 contract's valuation is around 2,050 - 2,100 points, and the delivery settlement price may be in the 2,100 - 2,200 points range. In the optimistic scenario, the delivery settlement price may be above 2,250 points. Unilateral trading value is limited [9]. - **2510 Contract**: October is the traditional off - season for the European route. Shipping companies need to suspend voyages to slow down the decline in freight rates. It is recommended to short on rallies, but the downward trend may not be smooth [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. However, it gives individual outlooks for various commodities, including bullish, bearish, and neutral views. Core Views of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of multiple commodities, offering insights into their price trends, fundamental data, and relevant market news. It suggests that different commodities are influenced by various factors such as supply - demand dynamics, macroeconomic conditions, and industry - specific events. For example, some commodities like gold, silver, and aluminum are expected to show upward trends, while others like tin are predicted to experience price weakness. Summary According to Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Gold is expected to move upward in a volatile manner, with a trend strength of 1. Yesterday, the closing price of沪金2510 was 781.70, up 0.60%, and the overnight closing price was 785.76, up 0.76%. [2][7][8] - Silver is predicted to break through and move upward, with a trend strength of 1. The closing price of沪银2510 was 9271, down 0.02%, and the overnight closing price was 9420.00, up 1.85%. [2][7][8] Base Metals - Copper: Inventory reduction supports the price. The trend strength is 1. The closing price of沪铜主力合约 was 79,770, up 1.70%. [2][11] - Zinc: It will fluctuate within a range, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of沪锌主力 was 22925, up 2.83%. [2][14] - Lead: The expected supply - demand contradiction supports the price, with a trend strength of 1. The closing price of沪铅主力 was 16960, up 0.83%. [2][17] - Tin: The price is weakening, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of沪锡主力合约 was 267,250, up 1.02%. [2][19] - Aluminum: It will move upward in a volatile manner. Alumina shows strong short - term sentiment, and casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength of aluminum is 0, alumina is 1, and casting aluminum alloy is 0. The closing price of沪铝主力合约 was 20840. [2][23] - Nickel: Macro - sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits elasticity. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine elasticity. The trend strength of both nickel and stainless steel is 0. The closing price of沪镍主力 was 122,550, and the closing price of stainless steel主力 was 12,905. [2][26] Energy - Related Commodities - Iron ore: Supported by macro - expectations, it will oscillate strongly. The trend strength is 0. The closing price of the futures was 809.0, up 3.06%. [2][38] - Coke and coking coal: Both are expected to oscillate strongly. The trend strength of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 1. The closing price of JM2509 was 1006, up 8.64%, and the closing price of J2509 was 1803, up 5.60%. [2][49][50] - Thermal coal: With the recovery of daily consumption, it will stabilize in a volatile manner. The trend strength is 0. The previous closing price of ZC2507 was 840.0000, down 51.4 from the previous settlement price. [2][53] Chemical Commodities - Carbonate lithium: Potential supply reduction combined with strong macro - sentiment may lead to a strong short - term trend. The trend strength is 1. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 71,280, up 1,320. [2][31] - Industrial silicon: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and the futures price is resilient. The trend strength is 1. The closing price of Si2509 was 9,260, up 565. [2][35] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the transaction situation at the component end. The trend strength is 1. The closing price of PS2509 was 45,660, up 1,810. [2][35] Building Materials and Steel - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Market sentiment remains strong, and they will oscillate strongly. The trend strength of both is 1. The closing price of RB2510 was 3,224, up 68, and the closing price of HC2510 was 3,394, up 73. [2][41] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Market sentiment remains strong, and they will oscillate strongly. The trend strength of both is 1. The closing price of硅铁2509 was 5668, up 160, and the closing price of锰硅2509 was 5914, up 110. [2][45] Others - Logs will fluctuate repeatedly. [2][56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The structural market in index futures continues and supports the market [1] - On July 21, all the current - month contracts of the four major index futures rose. IF increased by 0.68%, IH by 0.25%, IC by 0.99%, and IM by 0.89% [1] - On this trading day, the total trading volume of index futures declined, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume of IF decreased by 24,940 lots, IH by 19,875 lots, IC by 9,461 lots, and IM by 1,381 lots [2] - In terms of positions, the total positions of IF decreased by 2,025 lots, IH by 634 lots, while IC increased by 5,196 lots and IM by 15,851 lots [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1期指期现数据跟踪 - **Index Futures Data**: Presented the closing prices, price changes, basis, trading volumes (in billions), trading volumes, and position changes of various index futures contracts such as IF, IH, IC, and IM on July 21, 2025 [1] - **Trading Volume and Position Changes**: The total trading volume of the four major index futures decreased, and the position changes of different index futures varied [2] - **20 - Member Position Changes**: Showed the long - and short - position changes of the top 20 members in different index futures contracts [5] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1 [5] 3.2重要驱动 - **LPR Quote**: The LPR quote in July remained stable. The 1 - year LPR was reported at 3%, and the 5 - year - plus variety was reported at 3.5% [6] - **Sino - US Leaders' Meeting**: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that there was no information available regarding the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders in the next few months [6] - **US - EU Trade Tension**: The US Secretary of Commerce set August 1 as the "hard" deadline. If the EU fails to reach a new trade agreement by then, it will face at least a 30% tariff, and the EU is preparing a full - scale counterattack [6] - **Stock Market Performance**: The broader market opened higher and continued the upward trend in a volatile manner. The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high for the year, and the ChiNext Index followed the upward trend in the afternoon. A - share trading volume increased to 1.73 trillion yuan [6][7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market sentiment for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese remains strong, with a tendency for a bullish and volatile market [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For ferrosilicon, the closing prices of contracts SF2508 and SF2509 are 5,652 and 5,668 respectively, up 162 and 160 from the previous trading day, with trading volumes of 6,857 and 307,634, and open interests of 8,912 and 193,447. For silicomanganese, the closing prices of contracts SM2508 and SM2509 are 5,906 and 5,914 respectively, up 110 from the previous trading day, with trading volumes of 1,330 and 390,134, and open interests of 11,185 and 360,025 [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5,680 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 39 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 550 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Data**: The spot - futures spread of ferrosilicon (spot - 08 futures) is - 352 yuan/ton, down 112 yuan/ton; the spot - futures spread of silicomanganese (spot - 09 futures) is - 234 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread of ferrosilicon 2508 - 2509 is - 16 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; the near - far month spread of silicomanganese 2508 - 2509 is - 8 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2508 - ferrosilicon 2508 is 254 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton; the cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2509 - ferrosilicon 2509 is 246 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: On July 21, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi is 5,150 - 5,250 yuan/ton (+100), in Ningxia is 5,250 - 5,350 yuan/ton (+75), in Qinghai is 5,250 - 5,300 yuan/ton (+50), in Gansu is 5,300 - 5,350 yuan/ton (up 100), and in Inner Mongolia is 5,300 - 5,350 yuan/ton (+100). The price of 75 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi is 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton, in Ningxia is 5,600 - 5,650 yuan/ton, in Qinghai is 5,550 - 5,600 yuan/ton, in Gansu is 5,600 - 5,650 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia is 5,600 - 5,650 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon is 1,000 - 1,020 US dollars/ton, and the FOB price of 75 ferrosilicon is 1,080 - 1,110 US dollars/ton. The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese is 5,600 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation is 5,650 - 5,750 yuan/ton (+50) [2]. - **Procurement Information**: Zhongtian Iron and Steel in Changzhou has set the procurement price of 75B ferrosilicon at 5,780 yuan/ton in electronic vouchers, up 210 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a quantity of 500 tons. A steel mill in Jiangsu has a silicomanganese procurement price of 5,900 yuan/ton in electronic vouchers, with a procurement quantity of 1,000 tons; a steel mill in Jiangxi has a silicomanganese procurement price of 5,830 yuan/ton in discounted base acceptance and tax - included, with a procurement quantity of 4,000 tons [2]. - **Manganese Ore Import Data**: In June 2025, the national manganese ore import volume was 268.38 million tons, a decrease of 25.95 million tons (↓8.82%) compared with 294.33 million tons in May, and an increase of 54.01 million tons (↑25.19%) compared with 214.37 million tons in June last year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative manganese ore import volume was 1,444.49 million tons, an increase of 45.44 million tons (↑3.25%) compared with 1,399.05 million tons in the same period in 2024. In June 2025, the top five manganese ore importing countries were South Africa (158.31 million tons), Ghana (46.02 million tons), Australia (22.43 million tons), Gabon (19.08 million tons), and Brazil (7.66 million tons), accounting for 94.46% of the total import volume [4]. - **Manganese Ore Production and Sales Data**: South32's 2025 fiscal year fourth - quarter report shows that the cumulative production of Australian manganese ore in the 2025 fiscal year was 1.106 billion tons, completing 111% of the annual plan; the cumulative production of South African manganese ore was 2.151 billion tons, completing 108% of the annual plan. In the fourth quarter of the 2025 fiscal year, the production of Australian manganese ore was 467 million tons, and the sales volume was 253 million tons. The production guidance for Australian manganese ore in the 2026 fiscal year is 3.2 billion tons. The South African manganese ore production was 593 million tons, a 25% increase from the previous quarter and an 11% increase year - on - year; the sales volume was 601 million tons, a 48% increase from the previous quarter and a 9% increase year - on - year. The production guidance for South African manganese ore in the 2026 fiscal year remains unchanged at 2 billion tons [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 1, and the trend intensity of silicomanganese is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend for both [3].

Report Date - The report was published on July 22, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For nickel, macro - sentiment boosts expectations, but reality restricts elasticity; for stainless steel, macro - sentiment dominates the margin, and fundamentals determine elasticity [1] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel main contract was 122,550, with changes of 2,050 compared to T - 1, 1,450 compared to T - 5, etc.; the closing price of stainless steel main contract was 12,905, with changes of 180 compared to T - 1, 190 compared to T - 5, etc. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel main contract was 134,799, and that of stainless steel main contract was 255,058 [1] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 122,200, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (factory price) was 902, and the price of red earth nickel ore 1.5% (Philippines CIF) was 59. For stainless steel, the price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) was 12,900, etc. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 27,230 [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - In March, Ontario's governor proposed to stop exporting nickel to the US due to US tariff threats [1] - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF successfully produced nickel - iron, with an annual output of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per line [2] - An important nickel smelter in an Indonesian metal processing park has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [2][3] - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue shutdown for maintenance from June to July, affecting 110,000 - 130,000 tons of production, mainly 300 - series output [3] - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw - ore export ban clause from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill [3] - Environmental violations were found in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, and the government may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the entire park [3] - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [3] - The government - approved 2025 production plan and budget (RKAB) output of Indonesian nickel miners is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [4] - Two Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial parks have suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, affecting about 1,900 tons of nickel - iron production per month [4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0, with a range of [-2, 2] indicating different levels of bullish or bearish views [5]