Report Overview - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: December 28, 2025 - Report Author: Chen Xinchao - Report Contact: Zhao Shucen Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - **LPG**: In the short term, the supply is tight. The 1 - month CP is expected to rise, which will support propane prices. However, as maintenance in the Middle East ends and US exports increase, supply pressure remains. With low chemical profits and many PDH maintenance plans in Q1, downward - driving factors are emerging [3][4]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand situation has tightened, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling and rebound. As some PP devices restart, the supply of propylene is expected to decrease, while the demand from downstream devices is expected to increase [6]. Summary by Section LPG Part Price & Spread - **Domestic Spot and Basis**: The domestic civil LPG price trend is weak, while the import cost is firm. The regional price difference between Shandong and East China has widened by 96 yuan/ton, and the regional price difference between South China and East China has increased by 24 yuan/ton [9]. - **Domestic Market Price**: The prices in South China are firm, while those in East China and Shandong have declined, with a significant decline in Shandong [14]. - **Regional Quotation, Premium, and Freight**: The Asian spot premium has slightly increased, and the CP FOB premium remains at a high level [20]. - **Propane Price**: Propane prices have maintained a firm trend [29]. Supply - **US LPG Shipment**: The shipment volume to Asia has increased month - on - month. The 4 - week moving average (MA4) of the US - Asia LPG shipment volume has increased by 30,000 tons [38][40]. - **Canadian LPG Shipment**: The overall shipment volume has decreased. The MA4 of the Canadian LPG shipment volume has decreased by 10,000 tons [44]. - **Middle East LPG Shipment**: Spot supply is tight, and shipments are delayed. The MA4 of the Middle East LPG shipment volume has decreased by 50,000 tons [45][49]. - **LPG Commodity Volume**: The total LPG commodity volume is 524,000 tons (+1.2%), and the civil LPG commodity volume is 219,000 tons (+0.4%) [59]. - **Propane Commodity Volume**: The import arrival volume has decreased by 286,000 tons month - on - month. The domestic refinery supply has slightly increased [70][72]. Demand & Inventory - **Chemical Demand**: The PDH operating rate has increased, while the MTBE operating rate has decreased. The PDH operating rate has increased by 1.4% to 76.4% [75]. - **Domestic Refinery Inventory**: The inventory is the same as in 2024, at a relatively low level in the same period, with limited month - on - month changes [77]. - **Civil LPG Refinery Inventory**: The month - on - month change is small [85]. - **Ether - after C4 Refinery Inventory**: The inventory has slightly increased [90][93]. - **LPG Terminal Import Inventory**: The arrival volume has fallen short of expectations, and the terminal inventory has decreased significantly month - on - month [95]. Propylene Part Price & Spread - **Propylene Industry Chain Price**: The cost - side propane is firm, while propylene is weak, and the PDH profit has declined month - on - month. The downstream trend has improved, with the powder profit remaining at the marginal level, and the PO and butanol - octanol profits have recovered [106][108]. - **Propylene Price**: The international/US - dollar price has remained flat month - on - month, while the domestic price has been weak [110][118]. Balance Sheet - **Propylene Industry Chain Operating Rate**: The PDH operating rate has increased month - on - month; the powder operating rate has further declined, while the butanol - octanol operating rate has increased significantly [128]. - **National Propylene Balance Sheet - Supply**: The overall supply situation and the operating rate changes of various production methods are analyzed. The PDH operating rate is expected to decline in Q1 [130]. - **National Propylene Balance Sheet - Demand**: The demand situation of various downstream products and their operating rate changes are presented [136]. - **Shandong Propylene Balance Sheet - Supply**: The supply situation and operating rate changes in Shandong are provided. The supply is expected to change with the restart of some devices [143]. - **Shandong Propylene Balance Sheet - Demand**: The demand situation and operating rate changes of downstream products in Shandong are shown [146]. - **Shandong Region (Including Lianyungang, Jiangsu, and Haiwei) Propylene Balance Sheet - Supply**: The supply situation and operating rate changes in this region are given [148]. - **Shandong Region (Including Lianyungang, Jiangsu, and Haiwei) Propylene Balance Sheet - Demand**: The demand situation and operating rate changes of downstream products in this region are presented [153]. Supply - **Overall Upstream Operating Rate**: The overall upstream operating rate of propylene is 75.0% (+0.9%) [157]. - **Refinery/Principal Operating Rate**: The principal refinery operating rate remains at 75%, and the independent refinery operating rate in Shandong is 56%, with profits similar to those in 2024 [159]. - **Cracking/Ethylene Cracking Operating Rate**: The ethylene cracking operating rate is 82.8% (- 0.4%), and the cracking profit center has slightly recovered month - on - month [167]. - **PDH Operating Rate**: The PDH capacity utilization rate is 76.4% (+1.4%). Due to many maintenance plans in January and February, the PDH operating rate in Q1 is expected to decline to around 70% [172][176]. - **MTO Operating Rate**: The MTO capacity utilization rate is 87.8% (- 1.7%) [177]. - **Propylene Import and Export**: The monthly import volume of propylene has increased, and the import profit has decreased [182][185]. Demand - **PP Operating Rate**: The PP capacity utilization rate is 76.9% (- 2.5%). Some devices in Shandong and Northeast China have had operating rate changes [192][196]. - **PP Profit**: The PP price has stopped falling, and the external procurement profit has slightly recovered month - on - month [197]. - **PP Powder Operating Rate**: The PP powder capacity utilization rate is 37.6% (+0.7%); the powder - propylene price difference has continued to recover, and some devices have resumed operation [213]. - **PO Operating Rate**: The PO capacity utilization rate is 74.1% (- 2.0%). Some devices have stopped or reduced production, and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly next week [223][227]. - **PO Profit**: The PO price has increased, and the profit has improved [229][234]. - **Acrylonitrile Operating Rate**: The acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate is 80.3% (- 0.3%). One device in Shandong has stopped for maintenance [236][238]. - **Acrylonitrile Profit**: The acrylonitrile profit has increased [237][240]. - **Acrylic Acid Operating Rate**: The acrylic acid capacity utilization rate is 79.9% (+0.4%). One device in Shandong has stopped for maintenance [241][247]. - **Acrylic Acid Profit**: The acrylic acid profit has increased [243][244]. - **n - Butanol Operating Rate**: The n - butanol capacity utilization rate is 79.9% (+2.1%). Some devices have had short - term stops and restarts [249][253]. - **n - Butanol Profit**: The n - butanol profit has increased significantly [252][253]. - **Octanol Operating Rate**: The octanol capacity utilization rate is 85.0% (+3.0%). Some devices have started up or had unstable operations [255][258]. - **Octanol Profit**: The octanol profit has increased significantly [257]. - **Phenol - Ketone Operating Rate**: The phenol - ketone capacity utilization rate is 78.5% (+2.5%). Some devices have restarted or had short - term fluctuations [260][266]. - **Phenol - Ketone Profit**: The phenol - ketone profit has increased [264][265]. - **ECH Operating Rate**: The ECH operating rate is 50.8% (+2.4%) [271]. Downstream Inventory - **PP and PP Powder Inventory**: The inventory of PP production enterprises, traders, and ports has changed slightly. The PP powder inventory has also changed slightly [275][284]. - **Other Downstream Inventory**: The inventories of phenol, acetone, acrylonitrile, etc. in ports and factories have changed to varying degrees [286][287].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the scale of macro - hedge strategies is expected to increase further as their allocation value is increasingly recognized in the market. Risk - parity strategies will play a stronger role as the base position in the portfolio, and the returns of risk - parity managers will experience a certain degree of mean reversion. [36][37] - The performance of subjective CTA strategies in 2026 will be better than that in 2025. The decrease in Sino - US macro uncertainties and the increase in commodity volatility in a low - interest - rate environment will benefit subjective CTA managers. [58] Summary by Directory 01 Macro - Hedge Strategy Research and Outlook Manager Classification and Characteristics - Macro - hedge managers are classified into three types: risk - parity, asset - rotation, and multi - asset multi - strategy. This report focuses on the first two types. Risk - parity managers use the risk - parity model as the basis and enhance it, with relatively consistent performance; asset - rotation managers are based on asset - rotation frameworks like the Merrill Lynch Clock, emphasizing asset timing allocation and having less consistent performance. [6] Domestic Manager Performance in 2025 - As of November 28, 2025, the net value of the "risk - parity" macro - hedge index was 1.172, and that of the "asset - rotation" index was 1.101. In the 46 weeks from January 3 to November 28, 2025, risk - parity managers had positive weekly returns in 30 weeks and negative returns in 16 weeks, with the largest single - week drawdown occurring after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival on April 11. Asset - rotation managers had positive weekly returns in 25 weeks and negative returns in 20 weeks, with the largest single - week drawdown occurring in the week of November 21. In the context of global supply - chain reshaping, risk - parity managers outperformed asset - rotation managers in 2025. [10] Asset Correlation Analysis - In 2025, the negative correlation between treasury bonds and equity indices weakened compared to the end of last year. The China Securities Commodity Index was positively correlated with stock indices and negatively correlated with treasury bonds and gold. Gold, as a safe - haven asset, had a stronger correlation with treasury bonds. There were significant differences in the performance correlations of risk - parity and asset - rotation managers with equity, treasury bonds, and gold. [13] - In terms of equity assets, the correlation between the risk - parity strategy and the CSI 300 was 0.230, and that with the CSI 1000 was 0.186. The correlations of the asset - rotation strategy with the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 were 0.628 and 0.641 respectively. The asset - rotation strategy's returns were more dependent on stocks, and the large drawdown in the week of November 21 was related to the stock decline. [19] - After a five - fold leverage treatment of 10 - year treasury bonds, the correlation between the risk - parity strategy and 10 - year treasury bond futures was 0.221, while that of the asset - rotation strategy was - 0.068. Many managers believed that the treasury bond market was in a bear market, so asset - rotation managers mostly reduced or shorted treasury bonds, while risk - parity managers still held bond positions. [23] - In 2025, gold was one of the strongest - performing assets, with a cumulative net value of the Gold ETF of 1.588 from January 3 to November 28. The correlation between the risk - parity strategy and the Gold ETF was 0.453, while that of the asset - rotation strategy was 0.110. Gold had a greater impact on risk - parity strategies. [26] Overseas Manager Performance in 2025 - As of October 2025, the net value of the "unidentified" macro - hedge index was 1.088, the "subjective" macro - hedge index was 1.129, and the "quantitative" macro - hedge index was 1.159. Quantitative macro - hedge strategies performed the best, followed by subjective strategies, similar to the domestic situation. The maximum drawdowns of the unidentified and quantitative macro - hedge strategies occurred in April, indicating that domestic risk - parity managers may use similar underlying models to overseas ones. [29] - The unidentified macro - hedge strategy index had a more balanced correlation with various asset classes, with a near - zero correlation with New York gold. The subjective macro - hedge index had a high correlation of 0.792 with the S&P 500 and a negative correlation with New York gold, indicating that its returns were more dependent on the US stock market. The quantitative macro - hedge strategy also had a high correlation of 0.627 with the S&P 500 and a relatively high correlation of 0.300 with the S&P GSCI, but a negative correlation with US treasury bonds and gold. [33] Outlook for 2026 - The scale of macro - hedge strategies will increase as their allocation value is recognized. Some investors may replace part of their stock - neutral strategy allocation with low - volatility macro - hedge strategies. The role of risk - parity strategies as the base position in the portfolio will be enhanced, and their return attribution is relatively clear. [36] - The returns of risk - parity managers will experience mean reversion in 2026. Since the probability of bonds and gold replicating their price increases since 2024 is significantly reduced, the returns of these managers will decline. Historically, the long - term return of the basic risk - parity model is around 6 - 8%. [37] 02 Discretionary CTA Strategy Research and Outlook Performance in 2025 - The net value performance of managers in the observation pool in 2025 was weaker than in the same period of 2024. Uncertainties in Sino - US trade friction reduced the trading certainty of discretionary CTA managers based on industrial supply - demand research, weakening their position - holding confidence and return - generating ability. After June, although market sentiment improved, the lack of improvement in the industrial sector led to significant drawdowns for many managers, lowering the annual return. [40] Sector - Specific Performance - Black - sector managers showed some resilience in returns in 2025. In the first half of the year, the collapse of coal costs led to a downward trend in the black - sector prices, with good persistence and low volatility. The concerns about external demand due to Sino - US trade friction coincided with the seasonal decline in coal prices, providing trading opportunities with industrial and macro resonance. In the second half of the year, differences in the implementation of anti - involution policies led to a negative view among industrial - based managers, resulting in significant drawdowns. [45] - Agricultural - product managers were greatly affected by trade frictions between China and the US, Canada, etc. The unpredictable changes in agricultural - product imports and price fluctuations made it difficult for them to generate returns. [45] Industry Changes - Leading managers are iterating towards multi - asset and multi - strategy models. The limited capital capacity of single - asset futures trading, the need to understand the trading behavior of other market participants, and the benefits of multi - asset diversification are the main reasons. [50] - Start - up private - equity funds have shown strong drawdown - control ability since their establishment. Compared with the past, current start - up discretionary CTA private - equity funds have a clearer understanding of investors' risk preferences and a more explicit performance - oriented approach, enabling them to enter institutional investors' asset - allocation pools more quickly. [52] - In a diversified market structure, single - industry logic is insufficient for trading. Managers need to have comprehensive capabilities in macro - judgment, trading, and risk - control. Research determines the winning rate, trading and risk - control determine the profit - loss ratio, and an excellent trader may not be an excellent asset - management manager. [55] Outlook for 2026 - The performance of discretionary CTA strategies in 2026 will be better than in 2025. The decrease in Sino - US macro uncertainties will make commodity supply - demand the dominant factor in trading, and the increase in commodity volatility in a low - interest - rate environment will be beneficial for managers to generate returns. The increase in the scale of discretionary CTA managers based on industrial research will also contribute to the strength of industrial logic in the market. [58]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The alumina market's turnaround depends on significant supply-side clearance and supply-demand rebalancing [4]. - Although there may be a phased production cut in domestic alumina at the beginning of 2026, the supply may increase again due to production elasticity and new projects. The mid - term strategy is to find selling points during price rebounds [5]. - After the current price rebound, attention should be paid to the pressure of increased spot warrant registration [5]. 3. Summary by Related Sections Alumina Market Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission's news led to the limit - up of AO futures. The continuous decline of AO was due to supply - side over - supply and inventory pressure, while the long - term accumulation of short positions may cause price rebounds. The lower the price, the more intense the capital game and the greater the price volatility [4]. - Considering the cash - cost loss at the 2400 level on the futures and the completion of long - term contract negotiations, alumina manufacturers may gradually decide to cut production or conduct maintenance in January - February. However, production may resume once losses are repaired, and new projects in 2026 will add to the supply [5]. Options Analysis - **场内期权 (Exchange - Traded Options)**: Alumina options' trading volume and implied volatility increased with the futures' rise. The mid - term price movement is limited. One can consider selling out - of - the - money put options at the cost line and out - of - the - money call options at the resistance level. If the price continues to rise in the short term, one can buy at - the - money call options for risk hedging [7]. - **场外期权 (Over - the - Counter Options)**: For producers with large inventories, it is recommended to first arrange some short - term, relatively wide - range Phoenix accumulator put options to optimize inventory costs by taking advantage of volatility and price increases [9].

Report Overview - Report Date: December 26, 2025 - Report Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately declining [2]. - **Silver**: Undergoing high - level adjustment [2]. - **Copper**: Positive market sentiment supports price increases [2]. - **Zinc**: Moving in a sideways range [2]. - **Lead**: Declining inventory supports prices [2]. - **Tin**: Supply is facing new disruptions [2]. - **Aluminum**: Showing a slightly upward - trending oscillation [2]. - **Alumina**: Continuously bottom - grinding [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - **Platinum**: Bullish sentiment dominates [2]. - **Palladium**: Oscillating upward [2]. - **Nickel**: Intense capital game on the trading floor leads to wide - range price fluctuations [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: Both supply and demand in the fundamentals are weak, and news from Indonesian nickel mines causes disruptions [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,014.24, up 1.34%; Gold T + D was 1,006.45, up 1.44%; Comex Gold 2602 was 4515.00, up 0.77% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 decreased by 2,375 to 276,418; the open interest decreased by 2,397 to 199,893. Comex Gold 2602's trading volume increased by 42,965 to 241,461, and open interest increased by 8,818 to 360,434 [4]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Gold inventory increased by 1,995 to 93,711 kg; Comex Gold inventory (previous day) increased by 114,168 to 36,120,091 troy ounces [4]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 [8]. Silver - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 16441, up 1.50%; Silver T + D was 16420, up 1.52%; Comex Silver 2602 was 71.610, up 3.65% [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 decreased by 474,555 to 1,230,157; the open interest decreased by 921 to 340,510. Comex Silver 2602's trading volume increased by 30,063 to 127,435, and open interest remained unchanged at 114,525 [4]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Silver inventory decreased by 1805 to 899,663 kg; Comex Silver inventory (previous day) decreased by 3,083,409 to 450,643,486 troy ounces [4]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 [8]. Copper - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 96,210, up 0.11%; the night - session closing price was 97680, up 1.53%. LME Copper 3M was 12,133, up 0.65% [9]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Copper Index decreased by 81,418 to 477,230; the open interest decreased by 7,370 to 651,557. LME Copper 3M's trading volume decreased by 8,111 to 18,195, and open interest decreased by 2,248 to 340,000 [9]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Copper inventory increased by 6,861 to 59,083; LME Copper inventory decreased by 1,550 to 157,025, and the注销仓单 ratio was 29.63%, down 1.19% [9]. - **Trend Strength**: 2 [11]. Zinc - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 23065, down 0.71%; LME Zinc 3M was 3086.5, down 0.32% [12]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc's main contract decreased by 46305 to 125213; the open interest decreased by 1875 to 93322. LME Zinc's trading volume decreased by 4941 to 5944, and open interest decreased by 646 to 227051 [12]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory decreased by 1092 to 41319; LME Zinc inventory increased by 7900 to 106875 [12]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 [14]. Lead - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 17315, up 0.52%; LME Lead 3M was 1999.5, up 0.83% [15]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Lead's main contract decreased by 12922 to 55100; the open interest decreased by 210 to 56328. LME Lead's trading volume decreased by 1794 to 3806, and open interest increased by 167 to 178155 [15]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Lead futures inventory decreased by 900 to 11457; LME Lead inventory decreased by 4200 to 248900 [15]. - **Trend Strength**: 1 [16]. Tin - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 344,750, up 1.27%; LME Tin 3M was 42,835, up 0.25% [18]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Tin's main contract decreased by 11,222 to 228,643; the open interest increased by 31,914 to 61,161. LME Tin 3M's trading volume decreased by 9 to 180, and open interest increased by 53 to 13,988 [18]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Tin inventory increased by 655 to 8,340; LME Tin inventory increased by 50 to 4,675, and the注销仓单 ratio was 6.57%, down 0.38% [18]. - **Trend Strength**: 1 [21]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Aluminum** - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 22275, down 55; LME Aluminum 3M was 2957, unchanged [22]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract decreased by 65183 to 229349; the open interest decreased by 6450 to 290474. LME Aluminum 3M's trading volume was unchanged at 11757 [22]. - **Trend Strength**: 1 [24]. - **Alumina** - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Alumina's main contract was 2646, up 92 [22]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 [24]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Trend Strength**: 1 [24]. Platinum and Palladium - **Platinum** - **Price**: The closing price of Platinum Futures 2606 was 686.95, up 4.46%; the price of Gold Exchange Platinum was 591.25, down 2.59% [25]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum increased by 201,102 to 227.666; the open interest increased by 718 to 48.732. NYMEX Platinum's trading volume was 82,975, and open interest was 28,141 [25]. - **Trend Strength**: 1 [28]. - **Palladium** - **Price**: The closing price of Palladium Futures 2606 was 529.05, down 8.54%; the price of RMB Spot Palladium was 416.00, down 9.37% [25]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Palladium decreased by 2,565 to 100.293; the open interest decreased by 2,067 to 23.862. NYMEX Palladium's trading volume was 48.123, and open interest was 67.992 [25]. - **Trend Strength**: 1 [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel** - **Price**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 125,410, down 2,590 [31]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 [35]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Price**: The closing price of Stainless Steel's main contract was 12,990, down 85 [31]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools such as the golden section line, horizontal line, and daily moving average, the report predicts the market trends of various futures contracts on December 26, 2025, and the overall trends in December 2025. Some futures are expected to reach new highs since their listing [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - For December 23, 2025, the main contracts of stock index futures (IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, IM2603) are expected to have a strong - biased oscillation. Gold (AU2602), silver (AG2602), platinum (PT2606), copper (CU2602), and polysilicon (PS2605) are expected to reach new highs since their listing. Silver, platinum, palladium (PD2606), and polysilicon are expected to have a strong - biased oscillation, while gold, copper, nickel (NI2602), and soybean meal (M2605) are expected to have a strong - biased oscillation [2]. - For December 2025, the main continuous contracts of stock index futures are expected to have a strong - biased oscillation. Gold, silver, platinum, palladium, copper, and polysilicon are expected to reach new highs since their listing and have a strong - biased oscillation [5]. Macro News and Trading Tips - The Politburo of the CPC Central Committee studied and deployed the work of improving Party conduct, building a clean government, and combating corruption in 2026. The central bank continued to conduct MLF and outright reverse repurchase operations in December, releasing 300 billion yuan of medium - and long - term liquidity [6]. - The Ministry of Commerce opposed the US imposing 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products. The public security departments of China, Myanmar, and Thailand carried out a new round of operations to crack down on gambling and fraud dens in Myanmar [6]. - The Ministry of Finance and eight other departments formulated and issued the guidelines for corporate climate information disclosure. On December 25, the offshore RMB against the US dollar rose above the "7" integer mark for the first time in 15 months [7]. Commodity Futures - Related Information - Most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with new energy materials leading the gains. The polysilicon futures rose 4.8%. Precious metal futures showed mixed trends, with platinum rising 4.51%, palladium falling 7.65%, silver rising 2.64%, and gold falling 0.39% [7]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the minimum opening order quantity for platinum and palladium futures contracts and polysilicon futures contracts, and set a limit on the daily opening volume [8]. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook Stock Index Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contracts of stock index futures (IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, IM2603) showed a small - scale upward trend. The A - share market continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index recording seven consecutive positive days [9][10][11]. - It is expected that in December 2025, the main contracts of stock index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM) will have a strong - biased oscillation. On December 26, 2025, stock index futures are expected to have a strong - biased oscillation [11][12]. Gold Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of gold futures (AU2602) fell. It is expected that in December 2025, the main continuous contract of gold futures will have a strong - biased wide - range oscillation and reach a new high since its listing. On December 26, 2025, the main contract of gold futures is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation and reach a new high since its listing [30]. Silver Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of silver futures (AG2602) showed a mixed trend. It is expected that in December 2025, the main continuous contract of silver futures will have a strong - biased oscillation and reach a new high since its listing. On December 26, 2025, the main contract of silver futures is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation and reach a new high since its listing [33]. Platinum Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of platinum futures (PT2606) rose. It is expected that in December 2025, the main continuous contract of platinum futures will have a strong - biased oscillation and reach a new high since its listing. On December 26, 2025, the main contract of platinum futures is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation and is likely to close at the daily limit [37]. Palladium Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of palladium futures (PD2606) fell sharply. It is expected that in December 2025, the main continuous contract of palladium futures will have a strong - biased oscillation and reach a new high since its listing. On December 26, 2025, the main contract of palladium futures is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation [39]. Copper Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of copper futures (CU2602) rose slightly. It is expected that in December 2025, the main continuous contract of copper futures will have a strong - biased oscillation and reach a new high since its listing. On December 26, 2025, the main contract of copper futures is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation and reach a new high since its listing [44]. Nickel Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of nickel futures (NI2602) fell. It is expected that in December 2025, the main continuous contract of nickel futures will have a strong - biased oscillation. On December 26, 2025, the main contract of nickel futures is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation [50]. Tin Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of tin futures (SN2602) fell. It is expected that in December 2025, the main continuous contract of tin futures will have a strong - biased oscillation. On December 26, 2025, the main contract of tin futures is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation [56]. Polysilicon Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of polysilicon futures (PS2605) rose. It is expected that in December 2025, the main continuous contract of polysilicon futures will have a strong - biased oscillation and reach a new high since its listing. On December 26, 2025, the main contract of polysilicon futures is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation and reach a new high since its listing [60]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures (LC2605) fell. It is expected that in December 2025, the main continuous contract of lithium carbonate futures will have a strong - biased oscillation. On December 26, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures is expected to have a wide - range oscillation [64]. Rebar Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of rebar futures (RB2605) showed a small - scale downward trend. It is expected that in December 2025, the main contract of rebar futures will have a wide - range oscillation. On December 26, 2025, the main contract of rebar futures is expected to have a weak - biased oscillation [66]. Hot - Rolled Coil Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of hot - rolled coil futures (HC2605) showed a small - scale downward trend. On December 26, 2025, the main contract of hot - rolled coil futures is expected to have a weak - biased oscillation [72]. Iron Ore Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of iron ore futures (I2605) showed a small - scale downward trend. It is expected that in December 2025, the main contract of iron ore futures will have a wide - range oscillation. On December 26, 2025, the main contract of iron ore futures is expected to have a weak - biased oscillation [74]. Coking Coal Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of coking coal futures (JM2605) showed a small - scale downward trend. It is expected that in December 2025, the main contract of coking coal futures will have a weak - wide - range oscillation. On December 26, 2025, the main contract of coking coal futures is expected to have a weak - biased oscillation [77][78]. PTA Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of PTA futures (TA605) rose. On December 26, 2025, the main contract of PTA futures is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation [81]. PVC Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of PVC futures (V2605) showed a small - scale downward trend. On December 26, 2025, the main contract of PVC futures is expected to have a weak - biased oscillation [83]. Soybean Meal Futures - On December 25, 2025, the main contract of soybean meal futures (M2605) rose. On December 26, 2025, the main contract of soybean meal futures is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation [85].

Report Overview - The report is a commodity options daily report dated December 25, 2025, covering agricultural products, energy chemicals, black metals, and metals [1]. 1. Agricultural Products Futures Market - Corn (c2603) closed at 2189, down 7, with a trading volume of 261,112 (down 91,811) and an open interest of 997,444 (up 10,708) [1]. - Other products like bean meal, rapeseed meal, etc., also had their respective price movements, trading volumes, and open interest changes [1]. Option Market - Corn's option volume was 54,315 (down 3,441) for the main contract, with a PCR of 0.3358 (down 0.0305) [3]. - Similar data was provided for other agricultural products' options [3]. Option Quantification Indicators - Corn's main contract (c2603) had a remaining trading days of 38, a flat - volatility of 9.66% (up 0.39%), and a 60 - day quantile of 46.67% [4]. - Other products also had their specific option quantification data [4]. 2. Energy Chemicals Futures Market - PTA (ta2605) closed at 5152, up 58, with a trading volume of 1,612,553 (down 120,477) and an open interest of 1,409,564 (up 88,099) [5]. - Other energy chemical products had different price, volume, and open - interest changes [5]. Option Market - PTA's option volume for the main contract was 514,719 (down 30,260), with a PCR of 0.4282 (down 0.075) [6]. - Other products' option data was also presented [6][7]. Option Quantification Indicators - PTA's main contract (ta2602) had 11 remaining trading days, a flat - volatility of 27.55% (up 1.54%), and a 60 - day quantile of 98.33% [8]. - Other energy chemical products had their own option quantification indicators [8]. 3. Black Metals Futures Market - Iron ore (i2605) closed at 778.5, down 1.0, with a trading volume of 145,809 (down 70,468) and an open interest of 567,104 (up 13,387) [9]. - Other black metal products had their price, volume, and open - interest changes [9]. Option Market - Iron ore's option volume for the main contract was 40,033 (down 20,001), with a PCR of 1.517 (up 0.0749) [9]. - Other products' option data was provided [9]. Option Quantification Indicators - Iron ore's main contract (i2602) had 16 remaining trading days, a flat - volatility of 14.9% (up 0.2%), and a 60 - day quantile of 5.0% [10]. - Other black metal products had their option quantification data [10]. 4. Metals Futures Market - Gold (au2602) closed at 1008.76, down 5.92, with a trading volume of 220,136 (down 131,165) and an open interest of 182,179 (down 4,619) [11]. - Other metal products had different price, volume, and open - interest changes [11]. Option Market - Gold's option volume for the main contract was 56,343 (down 71,581), with a PCR of 0.3379 (down 0.3789) [12]. - Other products' option data was also included [12]. Option Quantification Indicators - Gold's main contract (au2602) had 20 remaining trading days, a flat - volatility of 22.53% (down 2.78%), and a 60 - day quantile of 63.33% [13]. - Other metal products had their specific option quantification indicators [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - As the compliance pressure gradually emerges and the mandatory circulation quotas are basically released, the upward momentum of carbon prices begins to accumulate, and carbon prices may enter a stage of trend recovery [4] - The quota base carry - over amount for the steel, cement, and electrolytic aluminum industries has increased to 100,000 tons. However, due to the limited quota gap (within 3%) in 2025 for most enterprises, the actual procurement enthusiasm may be lower than expected [4] - Recently, some newly included industry enterprises have successively started basic carry - over procurement. Attention should be paid to whether the price can stabilize above 70 yuan/ton [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - The average price of listed agreement transactions increased by about 4.6%, and the daily trading volume remained basically flat. The main CEA contract achieved a consecutive upward trend, with 1.186 million tons listed and 2.275 million tons in bulk transactions. The listed agreement trading volume of CCER was 100,100 tons, and the average transaction price was 87.85 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 37.51%. The signal strength of the strategy is 1 (0 for short position, ±1 for slightly long/short, ±2 for long/short) [2] Carbon Quota (CEA) Market - **Price**: The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 are 60.00 yuan/ton, 75.08 yuan/ton, 65.77 yuan/ton, 68.08 yuan/ton, and 75.50 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of 0.00%, 7.10%, - 2.06%, 1.22%, and 7.14%. The new - old price differences are 15.08 yuan/ton, - 9.31 yuan/ton, 2.31 yuan/ton, and 7.42 yuan/ton. The average bulk transaction price of CEA23 is 69.63 yuan/ton, and that of CEA24 is 72.70 yuan/ton [6] - **Volume**: The total trading volumes of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 are 0.00 million tons, 1.59 million tons, 7.07 million tons, 43.46 million tons, and 294.04 million tons respectively. The listed agreement trading volumes are 0.00 million tons, 1.59 million tons, 7.07 million tons, 33.46 million tons, and 76.52 million tons respectively. The bulk agreement trading volumes are 0.00 million tons, 2.1752 million tons, 1.00 million tons, 0.00 million tons, and 0.00 million tons respectively. The total trading amounts are 4.6508 million yuan, 29.7394 million yuan, 215.9057 million yuan, 0.00 million yuan, and 1.1921 million yuan respectively [6][7] Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) Market - The average transaction price of CCER is 87.85 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 37.51%. The trading amount is 8.7971 million yuan, the trading volume is 100,100 tons, and the cumulative trading volume is 8.7924 million tons [8]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report mainly presents the warehouse receipt data of various agricultural products, including the historical trends and the latest values, week-on-week, month-on-month, and year-on-year changes of warehouse receipt quantities for products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, sugar, cotton, live pigs, and corn [3][4][5][6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Warehouse Receipt Data Overview - The report shows the warehouse receipt quantities of multiple agricultural products over different time periods, with data sources from Guotai Junan Futures, Steel Union, Wind, and Flush [3][4][5]. Latest Warehouse Receipt Quantities and Changes - The latest warehouse receipt quantity of soybean meal is 24,830.0 hands, with a 4% week-on-week increase, a -28.7% month-on-month decrease, and a 28% year-on-year increase [6]. - The latest warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed meal is 0.0 pieces, with no valid percentage changes provided [6]. - The latest warehouse receipt quantity of soybean oil is 28,264.0 hands, with an 8% week-on-week increase, a 14.8% month-on-month increase, and a 104% year-on-year increase [6]. - The latest warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 3,786.0 pieces, with a -5% week-on-week decrease, a -4.6% month-on-month decrease, and an 11% year-on-year increase [6]. - The latest warehouse receipt quantity of palm oil is 260.0 hands, with a -73% week-on-week decrease, an infinite month-on-month increase (inf%), and a -48% year-on-year decrease [6]. - The latest warehouse receipt quantity of sugar is 5,038.0 pieces, with a 725% week-on-week increase, a -34.5% month-on-month decrease, and a -45% year-on-year decrease [6]. - The latest warehouse receipt quantity of live pigs is 863.0 hands, with a 5% week-on-week increase, an infinite month-on-month increase (inf%), and a -1% year-on-year decrease [6]. - The latest warehouse receipt quantity of No. 1 cotton is 4,626.0 pieces, with a 28% week-on-week increase, a 99.5% month-on-month increase, and a 79% year-on-year increase [6]. - The latest warehouse receipt quantity of corn is 51,450.0 hands, with a -3% week-on-week decrease, a -22.5% month-on-month decrease, and a -41% year-on-year decrease [6]. - The total warehouse receipt quantity (in hands) is 119,117.0, with a 5% week-on-week increase, an -18.3% month-on-month decrease, and a -13% year-on-year decrease [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View - No clear core view is presented in the given content. It mainly shows the price spread data of various agricultural products. 3. Summary according to Related Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal - The report presents price spreads of soybean meal including 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads, with specific price spread values and corresponding time - series data from 06 - 28 to 09 - 16 in different years [3]. 3.2. Rapeseed Meal - It shows 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 price spreads of rapeseed meal from 2018/19 to 2025/26, with price spread values ranging from - 200 to 1400 and corresponding time - series data [4][5][6]. 3.3. Soybean Oil - The 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 price spreads of soybean oil are presented from 2019/20 to 2025/26, with price spread values from - 200 to 1000 and corresponding time - series data [9][10][11]. 3.4. Palm Oil - The 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 price spreads of palm oil are shown from 2019/20 to 2025/26, with price spread values from - 400 to 4000 and corresponding time - series data [12][14][23]. 3.5. Rapeseed Oil - The 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 price spreads of rapeseed oil are presented from 2019/20 to 2025/26, with price spread values from - 750 to 2500 and corresponding time - series data [13][15]. 3.6. Corn - The 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 price spreads of corn are shown from 2019/20 to 2025/26, with price spread values from - 125 to 200 and corresponding time - series data [13][16]. 3.7. Pig - The 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 price spreads of pig are presented from 2020/21 to 2025/26, with price spread values from - 5000 to 4000 and corresponding time - series data [13][17]. 3.8. Sugar - The 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 price spreads of sugar are shown from 2020/21 to 2025/26, with price spread values from - 200 to 400 and corresponding time - series data [18][19][20]. 3.9. Cotton - The 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 price spreads of cotton are presented from 2020/21 to 2022/23, with price spread values up to 1250 and corresponding time - series data [21].

Report Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Alumina: Continuing to bottom out [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Views - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including futures and spot market prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, and inventory data [1]. - Japan's government plans to launch a record - high budget of 122 trillion yen in the new fiscal year, with a 6.3% increase compared to the current fiscal year. The budget growth is mainly driven by social security and defense spending. The government plans to issue about 29.6 trillion yen in new government bonds, and the debt dependence is expected to drop to 24.2% [2]. - Due to rising inflation expectations, the market anticipates that the Bank of Japan will take a more aggressive interest - rate hike path. The auction demand for 2 - year Japanese government bonds is weak, and the 10 - year break - even inflation rate has reached a record high [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,275 yuan, down 55 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 229,349 lots, a decrease of 65,183 lots. The LME aluminum 3M closing price is 2,957 US dollars, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract is 2,646 yuan, up 92 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 279,750 lots, an increase of 108,150 lots [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 21,345 yuan, down 135 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 6,506 lots, a decrease of 908 lots [1]. Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The pre - baked anode market price is 6,187 yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is 612,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from the previous trading day [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price is 2,715 yuan, and the alumina arrival price at Lianyungang is 334 US dollars per ton [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 is 12 yuan, up 34 yuan from the previous trading day. The price of Baotai ADC12 is 21,500 yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. Other Information - The trend strength of aluminum is 1, alumina is 0, and aluminum alloy is 1 [2].