聚酯数据周报 国泰君安期货研究所·贺晓勤（高级分析师），钱嘉寅（联系人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 需求 PTA装置开工率下降至70.9%（-2.3%），英力士110万吨，逸盛宁波220万吨重启，逸盛新材料降负，1月检修，新凤鸣300万吨装置短停。 观点 PX供增需减。但考虑到聚酯持续高开工，PX供应紧平衡的格局暂时无法证伪，PX预计维持高位震荡市。节前注意仓位管理。 估值 PXN300美元/吨，石脑油负反馈，PXN持续扩大。PX-MX韩国FOB价差157美金/吨（+10），美国PX-MX价133美金/吨（+50），山东PX- MX价2020（+150）元/吨。 策略 1）单边：7000-7800 2）跨期：5-9正套 3）跨品种：多PX空PF/PR 风险 地缘 本周PTA观点总结：单边高位震荡市 | 供应 | PTA装置开工率下降至70.9%（-2.3%），英力士110万吨，逸盛宁波220万吨重启，逸盛新 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, methanol will fluctuate before the holiday. Next week, the expected high volume of foreign ships arriving at ports may lead to a continued accumulation of port methanol inventory, increasing the near - term fundamental pressure on methanol. In a macro - environment with strong overall sentiment recently, methanol will fluctuate within the valuation range under the pattern of weak fundamentals and strong macro - factors [2][3]. - In terms of valuation, the current MTO fundamentals are weak, and production profits are continuously compressed. The price range of 2200 - 2250 yuan/ton is currently a strong fundamental resistance level. If methanol continues to rebound, the probability of negative feedback from MTO (coastal MTO plants) will increase. The lower valuation of methanol mainly refers to the cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol plants in Henan. Due to the upward shift of the coal price center in the fourth quarter, the cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol has gradually stabilized around 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton, providing support for the lower valuation of methanol [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Methanol Summary Supply - From December 19 to December 25, 2025, China's methanol production was 2,072,175 tons, an increase of 16,200 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 91.24%, a 0.80% increase from the previous week. Next week, China's methanol production is expected to be around 2.0635 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be around 90.86%, a decrease from this period [3]. Demand - Olefins: Some enterprises in East and Northwest China continued to reduce their loads, and the average weekly operating rate of the industry is expected to decline slightly. - Traditional downstream: For dimethyl ether, Shanxi Weihua may stop production next week, and the overall capacity utilization rate may decline. For glacial acetic acid, the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase as the device is being restored. For formaldehyde, Shandong Lianyi plans to reduce its load, and some devices in Ningxia, Henan, and Shaanxi may stop production, so the capacity utilization rate may decline. For chlorides, there is no clear maintenance plan for enterprises next week, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic methane chlorides is expected to rise [3]. Inventory - As of 11:30 on December 24, 2025, the inventory of China's sample methanol production enterprises was 404,000 tons, an increase of 128,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.28% increase. The orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 193,600 tons, a decrease of 268,000 tons from the previous period, a 12.16% decrease. - As of December 24, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol port samples was 1.4125 million tons, an increase of 193,700 tons from the previous period, a 15.89% increase. The port inventory increased significantly, mainly in Jiangsu. The inventory in the South China port decreased slightly [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, it will fluctuate. The upper resistance for contract 05 is 2200 - 2250 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton. - Inter - period: Short - term reverse arbitrage for the 5 - 9 spread, and it may turn into a positive arbitrage pattern in the medium term. - Inter - variety: The price difference between MA and PP is in a fluctuating pattern [3] Price and Spread - The content mainly presents multiple price - related charts, including basis, monthly spreads, warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price differences from 2020 to 2025 [7][11][16] Supply Methanol Production and Operating Rate - It shows the production and capacity utilization rate of methanol in China and different regions from 2018 to 2025 through charts, including daily production in China, weekly production in the Northwest region, and capacity utilization rates in China and abroad [24] Methanol Production by Process - It presents the weekly production of methanol from different processes in China from 2018 to 2025, such as coke oven gas, coal single - methanol, coal co - methanol, and natural gas - based methanol [26] Methanol Operating Rate by Region - It shows the daily capacity utilization rates of methanol in different regions of China from 2018 to 2025, including the Northwest, Southwest, East, and Central regions [29] Methanol Import - related - It includes the monthly import volume, import cost, weekly arrival volume, and import profit of methanol in China from 2020 to 2025 through charts [33] Methanol Cost and Profit - It shows the production costs and profits of methanol from different processes in different regions from 2020 to 2025, such as coal - based in Inner Mongolia and Shandong, coke oven gas - based in Hebei, and natural gas - based in Chongqing [38][43] Demand Methanol Downstream Operating Rate - It presents the capacity utilization rates of methanol downstream industries such as methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, etc. in China from 2020 to 2025 [48] Methanol Downstream Profits - It shows the production profits of methanol downstream industries such as MTO in different regions, formaldehyde, MTBE, and glacial acetic acid from 2020 to 2025 [55][59] MTO Procurement Volume by Region - It presents the procurement volumes of methanol by MTO production enterprises in China and different regions from 2020 to 2025 [63] Traditional Downstream Methanol Raw Material Procurement Volume by Region - It shows the procurement volumes of methanol raw materials by traditional downstream manufacturers in China and different regions from 2020 to 2025 [68] Traditional Downstream Methanol Raw Material Inventory by Region - It presents the inventories of methanol raw materials in downstream manufacturers in China and different regions from 2020 to 2025 [73] Inventory Methanol Factory Inventory - It shows the weekly factory inventories of methanol in China and different regions from 2018 to 2025, including East China, Northwest China, and Inner Mongolia [78] Methanol Port Inventory - It presents the weekly port inventories of methanol in China and different regions from 2018 to 2025, including Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong [84]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The focus on nickel and stainless steel in the capital market is due to changes in the news, including Indonesia's 250 million - ton nickel ore quota target and the consideration of including associated minerals like cobalt in the pricing and taxation system [1]. - The nickel price may fluctuate widely in the short - term due to the game between industry and funds. The key to breaking the situation lies in the implementation of Indonesia's nickel ore news in the first quarter. Options can be considered in trading, and short - term attention can be paid to structural arbitrage opportunities [3]. - The stainless steel market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, with the cost support center moving up. The core contradiction lies in the raw material end. The price is likely to oscillate in a range and may not return to previous lows, and the direction will depend on the implementation of Indonesia's policies in the first quarter [5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 News Impact on Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Quota Event**: If Indonesia's 250 million - ton nickel ore quota is implemented, the expected surplus may turn into a shortage. However, considering the "downstream policy", the implementation time is uncertain, and the first quarter of 2026 is an important window for tracking policy implementation [1]. - **Associated Minerals Event**: Indonesia wants to include cobalt in the pricing and taxation system. It is estimated that the cost of pyrometallurgy and hydrometallurgy may increase by about 5% - 10% [2]. 3.2 Market Trends - **Nickel**: The previous trading logic was the surplus pressure and the expected commissioning of hydrometallurgy projects. The Indonesian news has increased market volatility. The nickel price will be in a wide - range oscillation pattern in the short - term [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand, but the cost center has moved up due to the impact of nickel - related factors. The price will oscillate in a range, and the upper - limit increase may be restricted by the actual delivery profit [5]. 3.3 Inventory Tracking - **Refined Nickel**: On December 26, China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 263 tons to 56,725 tons, while LME nickel inventory increased by 1,146 tons to 255,696 tons [6]. - **New Energy**: On December 26, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed to 5, 8, and 7 days respectively; the precursor inventory changed to 13.0 days; and on December 25, the ternary material inventory changed to 6.9 days [6]. - **Nickel - Iron - Stainless Steel**: On December 25, the SMM nickel - iron full - industry chain inventory increased by 8% month - on - month to 132,000 metal tons. The stainless - steel factory inventory in November was 1.588 million tons, and on December 25, the steel - union stainless - steel social total inventory was 1,005,136 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.55% [6]. 3.4 Market News - Multiple events have occurred, including Indonesia's forestry working group taking over a nickel - ore mining area, China suspending a non - official subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia, Indonesia sanctioning mining companies, and Indonesia planning to adjust the nickel - ore production target and pricing formula [7][8][10][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The demand shows weak support, and the futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese fluctuate within a narrow range. The price increase may face pressure due to the weak short - term demand before the holiday and the new start and复产 on the supply side [3][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Market Situation - This week, the alloy prices fluctuated within a narrow range with a slight upward shift in the price center, influenced by both macro - sentiment and weak and stable demand. The previous price increase on the futures market repaired the profit, leading to new starts and复产 on the supply side. Considering the weak short - term demand before the holiday, the upward potential of the futures prices may be limited [5]. - Macroscopically, the Central Economic Work Conference in China has further clarified the direction and tasks for next year's economic work, releasing many signals for stable growth in traditional areas and showing an attitude of policy attention towards prices [5]. - Microscopically, the change in hot metal production is small, providing weak support for raw material demand. The fundamental contradictions of silicomanganese continue to accumulate, and the previous shutdown factories of ferrosilicon have复产 due to the futures price repair [5]. 3.2 Futures Market - This week, the ferrosilicon 2603 contract fluctuated widely, closing at 5,672 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 32 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,118,256 lots and an open interest of 246,240 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 10,661 lots [8]. - The silicomanganese 2603 contract also fluctuated widely, closing at 5,840 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 32 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 764,909 lots and an open interest of 263,579 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 15,721 lots [8]. 3.3 Spot Market - The spot prices of ferrosilicon in major regions in China fluctuated upward this week. The aggregated price of FeSi75 - B in major production areas was 5200 - 5270 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of 20 - 50 yuan/ton [9]. - The aggregated spot price of silicomanganese in major regions ranged from 5520 to 5850 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of - 70 to 80 yuan/ton. For example, the price of FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5590 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton), in Guangxi was 5700 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 80 yuan/ton), and in Ningxia was 5520 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton) [9]. 3.4 Basis and Spread - The basis of the alloys has shrunk, the spread between the main contracts has fluctuated, and there is a game of warehouse receipts approaching the delivery month [12]. 3.5 Silicomanganese Fundamental Data 3.5.1 Supply - The weekly output of silicomanganese this week was 19.26 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.43 tons, with a week - on - week change rate of + 2.3%. The weekly operating rate was 36.78%, an increase of 1.17 percentage points from last week [17]. 3.5.2 Demand - In terms of steelmaking demand, the start - up and actual hot metal production of downstream steel mills are relatively stable. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 84.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 percentage points, and the daily average hot metal production was 226.58 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 tons. The output of rebar increased by 2.71 tons this week, providing weak support for the demand of silicomanganese [27]. - In the steel procurement market, many steel enterprises have completed their procurement of silicomanganese, with prices fluctuating and procurement volumes varying [24]. 3.5.3 Inventory - As of December 26, the number of silicomanganese warehouse receipts was 23,277, a week - on - week decrease of 374, equivalent to a reduction of 1,870 tons, and the current converted inventory was 116,385 tons [33]. - In December, the average available days of silicomanganese inventory in steel mills was 15.52 days (- 0.32 days), with 13.79 days in the northern region (- 0.55 days), 17.52 days in the eastern region (+ 0.85 days), and 16.27 days in the southern region (- 1.91 days) [34]. - As of December 26, the inventory of 63 silicomanganese sample enterprises in China was 386,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 tons [36]. 3.5.4 Raw Materials - The global manganese ore outbound volume decreased slightly week - on - week, with different changes in different regions. The ore arrival volume at major ports decreased, and the ore dredging volume also decreased slightly [40][47]. - Overseas manganese ore enterprises have raised their quotes. For example, South32's January 2026 offer for South African semi - carbonate lumps remained the same as last month, while the offer for Australian lumps increased by 0.3 dollars/ton - degree compared to December. The port prices of manganese ore have risen, which is closely related to the high dredging demand [52]. 3.5.5 Profit - The cost center of silicomanganese has slightly decreased, and the profit has recovered with the futures price [55]. 3.6 Ferrosilicon Fundamental Data 3.6.1 Supply - The weekly output of ferrosilicon this week was 9.85 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 29.5%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3 percentage points [59]. 3.6.2 Demand - In terms of steelmaking demand, the start - up and actual hot metal production of downstream steel mills are relatively stable. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 84.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 percentage points, and the daily average hot metal production was 226.58 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 tons [76]. - In the non - steel demand aspect, the total output of magnesium metal in November was 8.53 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% and a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. The output of stainless steel crude steel in November was 304.86 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59 tons. The planned production of stainless steel crude steel in December decreased by 8.2% month - on - month [76]. - The export volume of ferrosilicon in November was 3.11 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.52% [76]. 3.6.3 Inventory - As of December 26, the inventory of 60 ferrosilicon sample enterprises in China was 63,610 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,550 tons [78]. - As of December 26, the number of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 11,882, a week - on - week decrease of 897, equivalent to a reduction of 4,485 tons, and the current converted inventory was 59,410 tons [78]. - In December, the average available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills was 15.41 days (- 0.39 days), with 13.76 days in the northern region (- 0.1 days), 17.05 days in the eastern region (+ 1 day), and 16.64 days in the southern region (- 3.81 days) [78]. 3.6.4 Profit - The profit of ferrosilicon has recovered with the futures price, and attention should be paid to the impact of profit repair on the original operating rhythm of factories [89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report As of the week ending December 26, the daily average shipments from ports remained unchanged week - on - week, and the total inventory of the four major ports did not change either. The spot prices of mainstream lumber remained stable, and the market presented a pattern of weak supply and demand. The BDI decreased by 7.78% week - on - week, and the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the New Zealand dollar declined [4][6][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - As of December 21, there were 33 ships departing from New Zealand in December, with 26 bound for mainland China and 7 for Taiwan, China, and South Korea for lightering. Among them, about 15 ships were expected to arrive in December, and 18 in January. The expected arrival volume in December was 1.58 million cubic meters [5][8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week ending December 26, the daily average shipment of Lanshan Port was 21,600 cubic meters (week - on - week change: 0 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 14,600 cubic meters (week - on - week change: 0 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, the inventory of Lanshan Port was about 1.2668 million cubic meters (week - on - week change: 0 cubic meters), Taicang Port about 385,500 cubic meters (week - on - week change: 0 cubic meters), Xinminzhou about 126,500 cubic meters (week - on - week change: 0 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port about 134,300 cubic meters (week - on - week change: 0 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 1.9131 million cubic meters, with a week - on - week de - stocking of 0 cubic meters [6][12]. 3.3 Market Trends - As of December 26, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 776.5 yuan per cubic meter, a 0.4% increase from the previous week. The market was in a high - level volatile state this week, and the fundamental situation maintained a pattern of weak supply and demand. This week, the monthly spread tended to narrow. The 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 10.5 yuan per cubic meter, the 03 - 07 monthly spread was - 17.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 05 - 07 monthly spread was - 7 yuan per cubic meter [18]. 3.4 Other - As of the week ending December 28, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,877.00 points, a decrease of 146 points (- 7.78%) from the previous week. Its relevant sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 719 points, a - 3.62% change from the previous week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,656.32 points, a 6.7% increase from the previous week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index weakened, the US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.007, a 0.48% decrease week - on - week, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 1.3% to 1.709 [6][55].

国泰君安期货研究所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 赵旭意 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020751 日期：2025年12月28日 GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：空单持有，酌情加空 | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 净持仓变化 | 国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 2 观点综述 01 本周原油观点：空单持有，酌情加空 供应 OPEC+在11月底会议上决定 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (12.22 - 12.28), the spot market for live pigs showed strong prices. The supply decreased significantly due to enterprises reducing slaughter and high reluctance to sell among retail farmers after the Winter Solstice, while demand decreased this week but remained in the peak season. The average slaughter weight decreased slightly. In the futures market, live pig futures prices fluctuated strongly [1]. - Next week (12.29 - 1.4), live pig spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Supply pressure is high, but social groups' structural pig shortage and second - round fattening have driven up prices. After New Year's Day, demand will enter a lull, and enterprises' willingness to slaughter and reduce weight in January is high, putting pressure on spot prices. In the futures market, the LH2601 contract may rise rapidly, the March contract is under pressure, and the far - end has entered the expected trading stage. Attention should be paid to the 3 - 7 reverse spread and stop - loss [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review (12.22 - 12.28) 3.1.1 Spot Market - Henan 20KG piglet price was 21.1 yuan/kg (unchanged from last week), Henan live pig price was 12.08 yuan/kg (up from 11.43 yuan/kg last week), and the national 50KG binary sow price was 1546 yuan/head (unchanged from last week) [1]. - After the Winter Solstice, supply decreased as enterprises reduced slaughter and retail farmers were reluctant to sell. Demand decreased this week but was still in the peak season. The national average slaughter weight was 124.54KG, a 0.2% MoM decrease [1]. 3.1.2 Futures Market - The live pig futures LH2601 contract had a maximum price of 11495 yuan/ton, a minimum of 11080 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 11150 yuan/ton (down from 11485 yuan/ton last week). The LH2601 contract basis was 630 yuan/ton (up from - 55 yuan/ton last week) [2]. 3.2 Next Week's Market Outlook (12.29 - 1.4) 3.2.1 Spot Market - The supply pressure is high, but social groups' structural pig shortage and second - round fattening have led to a sharp price increase. After New Year's Day, demand will enter a lull, and enterprises' willingness to slaughter and reduce weight in January is high, putting pressure on spot prices [3]. 3.2.2 Futures Market - The LH2601 contract price closed at 11300 yuan/ton on December 26th. After the Winter Solstice, the spot price rose rapidly. The January contract may rise rapidly, the March contract is under pressure, and the far - end has entered the expected trading stage. Attention should be paid to the 3 - 7 reverse spread, with a short - term support level of 11000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 12200 yuan/ton for the LH2601 contract [4]. 3.3 Other Data 3.3.1 Basis and Monthly Spread - This week's basis was 780 yuan/ton, and the LH2601 - LH2603 monthly spread was - 345 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3.2 Supply - This week's average weight was 124.54KG (down from 124.79KG last week). In October, pork production was 5.605 billion tons, a 5.5% MoM increase, and pork imports were 7.14 million tons, an 11.14% MoM decrease [11]. 3.3.3 Demand - Not specifically summarized in the text, but it is mentioned that demand decreased this week but was still in the peak season, and there were changes in different demand periods such as after the Winter Solstice and after New Year's Day [1][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international sugar market is expected to trade in a low - range. The 25/26 sugar season is anticipated to see a restorative increase in global sugar production and inventory accumulation, with prices under pressure. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production and export rhythm, as well as India's output and relevant industrial policies [3][29]. - The domestic market maintains the expectation of a weak basis. In the 25/26 sugar season, domestic sugar production is expected to continue to rise, but production costs in the Guangxi region may increase due to a decline in the sugar extraction rate. Zhengzhou sugar prices follow the trend of raw sugar, and trading revolves around the import rhythm. The cost of out - of - quota imports is relatively low, and both regular and irregular imports remain at a high level. Focus on changes in import policies [3][29]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Data - The US dollar index is 98.03 (previous value 98.71), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.54 (previous value 5.52) [1][6]. - The WTI crude oil price is $56.93 per barrel, a 1.84% increase [1][6]. 2. Industry Data 2.1 Market Price and Trading Data - The active contract price of New York raw sugar is 15.17 cents per pound, a 2.15% increase. The spot quotation of Guangxi sugar groups is 5,360 yuan per ton, an increase of 80 yuan per ton from last week. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar is reported at 5,285 yuan per ton, an increase of 197 yuan per ton from last week, and the basis of the main contract has significantly decreased [1][2][14]. - As of the end of last week, the warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou white sugar were 5,038 lots [15]. - As of December 16, in the CFTC's latest position report on New York raw sugar, long positions of funds decreased by 42 lots, short positions decreased by 11,030 lots, and net long positions increased by 10,988 lots to - 166,702 lots, a slight increase [1][15]. 2.2 Industry Supply - Demand Data - Global supply - demand: ISO predicts a supply shortage of 2.92 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season and a supply surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season [19]. - Brazil: As of December 1, in the 25/26 sugar season, the cumulative sugarcane crushed in the central - southern region of Brazil was 592 million tons, a 1.92% decrease from the same period last year; sugar production was 39.9 million tons, a 1.13% increase; alcohol production was 29.53 billion liters, a 5.43% decrease; the cumulative ratio of sugar - used cane was 51.12%, compared with 48.34% in the same period last year [19]. - India: As of December 15, in the 25/26 sugar season, India produced 7.79 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 1.72 million tons. ISMA/NFCSF predicts that the total sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar season will be 34.35 million tons (previous forecast 34.9 million tons), with 3.4 million tons of sugar used for ethanol production and a net sugar production of 30.95 million tons; in the 24/25 sugar season, it was 29.5 million tons (with a net sugar production of 26.1 million tons) [19]. - Thailand: As of December 24, in the 25/26 sugar season, Thailand produced 1 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 170,000 tons [20]. - China: CAOC predicts that in the 25/26 sugar season, domestic sugar production will be 11.7 million tons (previous forecast 11.2 million tons), consumption will be 15.7 million tons (previous forecast 15.9 million tons), and imports will be 5 million tons. In November 2025, 440,000 tons of sugar were imported, and the cumulative sugar imports in the 25/26 sugar season were 1.19 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons. In November 2025, the combined imports of syrup and premixed powder were 110,000 tons, and the cumulative imports in the 25/26 sugar season were 230,000 tons, a decrease of 220,000 tons [2][20]. 3. Operation Suggestions - International market: Trade in a low - range. The market is in a weak - expectation pattern. The 25/26 sugar season is expected to see a restorative increase in global sugar production and inventory accumulation, which is bearish. New York raw sugar will trade in a low - range. Although sugar prices have fallen to a phased low, the cost of corn ethanol has pulled down the valuation. Pay attention to Brazil's production and export rhythm, as well as India's output and relevant industrial policies [3][29]. - Domestic market: Maintain the expectation of a weak basis. In the 25/26 sugar season, domestic sugar production is expected to continue to increase, but production costs in the Guangxi region may increase due to a decline in the sugar extraction rate. Zhengzhou sugar prices follow the trend of raw sugar, and trading revolves around the import rhythm. The cost of out - of - quota imports is relatively low, and both regular and irregular imports remain at a high level. Focus on changes in import policies [3][29].

螺纹钢&热轧卷板周度报告 黑色分析师：李亚飞 投资咨询号：Z0021184 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 螺纹&热卷观点：宏观托底产业压制，钢价维持区间震荡 ◼ 逻辑：宏观托底产业压制，钢价维持区间震荡 | 2025/12/26 | | 供应 | | （万吨） | | | | | 需求 | （万吨） | | | | | 库存 | | | | 现货 | 主力 | 01-05 | 现货 | 盘面 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 当周值 | | | 环差 | 同差 | | 当周值 | | | 环差 | | 同差 | | 当周值 | 环差 | | | 同差 | 价格 | 基差 | 价差 | 利润 | 利润 | | 铁水 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - If Malaysia's palm oil production in December 2025 decreases to around 1.7 million tons month - on - month, the palm oil price can be short - term confirmed at the bottom, but long - term layout requires further observation. Currently, the valuation is not low enough and the driving force is not strong, so short - term interval operation is the main approach. Long - term layout of oils still needs more verification and patience. [3][6] - The US soybean is still under short - term pressure. In the first quarter, attention should be paid to the driving force that domestic spot can provide for the domestic soybean product spread. Soybean oil is temporarily operating in an interval, waiting for the theme resonance of the oil sector in the first quarter after overall stabilization. [5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Last Week's Viewpoints and Logic Palm Oil - In December, the production reduction was close to 10%, gradually fulfilling the production reduction expectation. High - frequency export data was good, providing short - term support for palm oil. Meanwhile, technical buying was strong, and the 05 contract rose 2.78% last week. [1] Soybean Oil - Lacking South American weather speculation, the upward driving force of US soybeans was limited. It mainly rebounded with palm oil, and the 05 contract of soybean oil rose 1.40% last week. [2] 2. This Week's Viewpoints and Logic Palm Oil - MPOA data shows that the production reduction in December was 8%, gradually approaching the production level of 1.75 million tons. ITS data shows that exports in the first 25 days increased by 2%. In December, it is very likely to start the seasonal de - stocking process. A large number of buying orders emerged at the technical buying point of 8200, and it has returned to the normal trading choice of buying on dips during the production - reduction season. [3] - Although more monthly production data is still needed to verify whether the current high - yield of palm oil is due to improved park management and increased labor or factors such as tree age and rainfall. With the arrival of high - intensity rainfall in the rainy season, if the production in December decreases to around 1.7 million tons month - on - month, the short - term bottom of palm oil can be confirmed. Long - term layout needs further observation. If the month - on - month production reduction in January is still less than 10%, a normal monthly increase of 100,000 tons in 2026 production has to be considered, and the supply pressure will continue to be released. [3] - In Indonesia, the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia and the price of fruit bunches in North Sumatra have stabilized, and the refining profit in Indonesia has continued to rise. After short - term demand stimulation, Indonesia still has room for marginal price cuts. Indonesia announced the biodiesel allocation volume of 15.64 million kiloliters for 2026 within the scope of the B40 plan, which will increase the industrial demand for palm oil in Indonesia by about 800,000 tons next year. This figure is not enough to offset the optimistic expectation of palm oil production growth in Indonesia next year, but the market reaction was flat, even showing a sentiment of "bad news is out". This reflects the market's expectation for B50 next year and that the current demand is not the main contradiction. The de - stocking process during the low - production period dominates the trading rhythm. If the inventory cannot be reduced to below 1.8 million tons after June next year, whether B50 can be promoted in the second half of the year will become a key variable and hit the market's confidence in going long. [3] - In the consumer areas, the recent import profit of CPO in India has declined. Although the previous good profit stimulated India's ship - buying, showing certain marginal demand, it was not enough to cause the short - squeeze situation since June. The import profit inversion in China has widened, and the speed of releasing the pressure from the producing areas is not fast. Overall, palm oil is waiting for the production reduction in Malaysia in December to confirm the price bottom. US soybean oil is unlikely to get further stimulation in the short term, and it mainly operates in an interval based on fundamental trading, without upward breakthrough momentum, but its support is actually stronger than that of Malaysian palm oil. The upward opening of the palm oil price space needs to expect a smooth production reduction in the first quarter, waiting for the producing areas to start de - stocking and the production in the first and second quarters to be lower than expected to inject imagination space for the new year. [3] Soybean Oil - As of this week, the growth of soybeans in South American countries is generally good, and the production prospect is positive. In the next half - month, the rainfall in various places in Brazil and Paraguay will continue to alternate, which is generally conducive to maintaining the current good growth state of soybeans. However, the core producing areas in Argentina will face the first round of high - temperature and little - rain weather this year, and attention should be paid to the changes in the later rainfall forecast. The pressure of the good prospect of South American soybeans is strongly reflected in the US soybean market. If Argentina still cannot develop a drought later, it is temporarily difficult to see the height of the rebound of the January CBOT soybeans. It is expected that the main form of January's fluctuation will be oscillatory stabilization. [5] - Against the background of fewer ship - buying in China in the first quarter of next year, the suspension of the auction of state - reserve imported soybeans and the ambiguous news of strengthened customs quarantine on soybean imports in China prompted the domestic soybean products to rebound strongly this week. The soybean inventory at domestic ports will accelerate to decline from January to February, which is conducive to supporting the strength of domestic soybean spot and near - month contracts. The US soybean is still under short - term pressure. Insufficient export demand and arrival of goods enable domestic soybean oil to maintain the monthly de - stocking process until March or April next year. In the first quarter, attention should be paid to the driving force that domestic spot can provide for the spread. Soybean oil is temporarily operating in an interval, waiting for the theme resonance of the oil sector in the first quarter after overall stabilization. [5] 3. [Disk Basic Market Data] - **Price and Volume Data**: The opening, high, low, and closing prices, as well as the trading volume, position volume, and their changes of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, Malaysian palm oil, and CBOT soybean oil main contracts are provided. For example, the palm oil main contract opened at 8,256 yuan/ton, with a high of 8,610 yuan/ton, a low of 8,230 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 8,568 yuan/ton, up 2.78%. [8] - **Spread Data**: The current and previous week's values and changes of spreads such as the rapeseed - soybean 01 spread, soybean - palm 01 spread, palm oil 15 spread, soybean oil 15 spread, and rapeseed oil 15 spread are presented. For example, the rapeseed - soybean 01 spread was 1,421 yuan/ton this week, up 45.45% from last week. [8] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The current and previous week's values and changes of warehouse receipts for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are given. For example, the number of palm oil warehouse receipts this week was 260 hands, a decrease of 336 hands from last week. [8] 4. [Core Data of Oil Fundamentals] - **Production and Inventory Data**: Graphs show that Malaysia's palm oil production reduction in December is close to 10%, and although the inventory at the end of the year is still high, it is likely to de - stock in December. Indonesia's inventory at the end of the year is expected to return to a neutral and relatively loose level. The EU's cumulative imports of palm oil in 2025 decreased by 400,000 tons, and the cumulative imports of four major oils decreased by 600,000 tons. [10][12][17] - **Price and Profit Data**: Graphs display the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia, the price of fruit bunches in North Sumatra, Indonesia's refining profit, India's palm oil import profit, the CNF price difference between Indian soybean oil and palm oil, the basis of palm oil (South China) for 01, and the basis of soybean oil (Jiangsu). [12][16] - **Export and Rainfall Data**: ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 25 were 1,058,112 tons, a 1.6% increase from the same period last month. Graphs also show the POGO price difference, Malaysia's and Indonesia's weekly rainfall conditions (including two - week forecasts). [13][14][16]