Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for zinc is "sideways consolidation" [1] Core View - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the zinc market, including price movements, trading volume, open interest, and inventory levels, as well as relevant news and trend strength [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22,125 yuan/ton, down 0.65% from the previous day, while the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 2,873 dollars/ton, up 0.54% [1] - **Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 100,465 lots, a decrease of 33,120 lots, and the LME Zinc trading volume was 9,065 lots, a decrease of 1,628 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 108,199 lots, an increase of 2,698 lots, and the LME Zinc open interest was 199,723 lots, a decrease of 989 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was -65 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton, and the LME CASH - 3M premium was 16.46 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.98 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Zinc futures inventory was 42,681 tons, a decrease of 26 tons, and the LME Zinc inventory was 51,025 tons, a decrease of 2,050 tons [1] News - The US non - farm annual revision was worse than expected, with a downward revision of 911,000. This has increased the pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates [1] Trend Strength - The trend strength of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1][3]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The price of lead is fluctuating, and the lead trend strength is neutral [1]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract was 16,930 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 1,990 dollars/ton, up 0.10% [1]. - **Volumes**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead contract was 30,476 lots, a decrease of 10,182 lots; the LME lead trading volume was 3,368 lots, a decrease of 2,242 lots [1]. - **Open Interests**: The open interest of the main Shanghai lead contract was 49,701 lots, an increase of 817 lots; the LME lead open interest was 156,391 lots, a decrease of 1,110 lots [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -35 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -43.36 dollars/ton, up 0.12 dollars/ton [1]. - **Import Profits and Losses**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -413.26 yuan/ton, an increase of 68.19 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of the continuous third - month Shanghai lead contract was -402.22 yuan/ton, an increase of 70.39 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventories**: The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 53,820 tons, an increase of 25 tons; the LME lead inventory was 239,325 tons, a decrease of 3,800 tons [1]. - **Recycled Lead**: The price of recycled electric vehicle batteries was 10,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,750 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -249 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan/ton [1]. News - The US non - farm annual revision was worse than expected, with a downward revision of 911,000, increasing the pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates [1]. - After the US government released the significantly revised annual non - farm employment data, the White House quickly responded and criticized the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), former US President Biden, and Fed Chairman Powell [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is -2, indicating the most bearish view [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The resumption progress of large lithium carbonate manufacturers exceeds expectations, and the market is operating weakly [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price is 72,820 yuan, down 2,440 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume is 183 lots, down 93 lots; the open interest is 1,351 lots, down 754 lots. For the 2511 contract, the closing price is 72,900 yuan, down 1,900 yuan; the trading volume is 591,675 lots, down 190,712 lots; the open interest is 351,340 lots, down 12,797 lots. The warehouse receipt volume is 38,101 lots, up 650 lots [2] - **Spot and Basis Data**: The spot - 2509 basis is 1,780 yuan, the spot - 2511 basis is 1,700 yuan, and the 2509 - 2511 basis is - 80 yuan. The difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon is 2,250 yuan, and the spot - CIF difference is 7,202 yuan [2] - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 879 yuan, up 3 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,865 yuan, unchanged. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 74,600 yuan, unchanged; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 72,350 yuan, unchanged [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 74,589 yuan/ton, up 94 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 74,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 72,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Ningde Times' subsidiary is promoting the resumption of production at the Jianxiawo lithium mine. The approval of the mining license is progressing smoothly, and it is expected to resume production soon, faster than the market's fastest expectation [4] - Sichuan Energy Investment De'a Lithium Industry Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Sichuan Energy Investment Power Co., Ltd., has successfully produced qualified battery - grade lithium carbonate products. The project with an annual output of 30,000 tons of lithium salt is expected to have an annual output value of 2.4 billion yuan and drive local employment [4]

棕榈油：基本面驱动不足，关注 MPOB 报告 豆油：美豆区间震荡，豆油题材有限 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,480 | 涨跌幅 1.72% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,378 | 涨跌幅 -1.08% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,454 | 0.40% | 8,354 | -1.18% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,980 | 0.50% | 9,831 | -1.49% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,481 | -0.61% | 4,440 | -0.87% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 50.39 | -2.10% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 7 3 | -14 | 1,108 | -30 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 145 | -97 | 1,952 | -794 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US non - farm employment was revised down by 911,000, far lower than the expected 682,000, the largest downward revision since 2000, increasing the pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates [7][8]. - For double - offset paper, the fundamentals are relatively oversupplied, and the low benchmark price opens up bilateral operation space. For lithium carbonate, large - scale producers' resumption of production is faster than expected, and it is in a weak operation state [9][12]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Gold: The downward revision of non - farm employment data affects the market, and the trend strength is 1. Silver: The gold - silver ratio is rising, and the trend strength is 1 [20][24]. 3.1.2 Base Metals - Copper: Lacks a clear driving force, and the price fluctuates. The trend strength is 0 [26][28]. - Zinc: Is in a sideways consolidation. The trend strength is 0 [29]. - Lead: The price fluctuates. The trend strength is 0 [32]. - Tin: Ranges within an interval. The trend strength is 0 [34][37]. - Aluminum: Ranges within an interval. Alumina: There may still be room for decline. Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength of aluminum is 0, alumina is - 1, and cast aluminum alloy is 0 [38][40]. - Nickel: Runs in a narrow range. Stainless steel: There is a game between reality and expectation, and the steel price may fluctuate. The trend strength of both is 0 [41][47]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: Large - scale producers' resumption of production is faster than expected, and it is in a weak operation state. The trend strength is - 2 [48][51]. - Industrial Silicon: Market sentiment has cooled, and the idea is to short at high prices. Polysilicon: Market sentiment has cooled. The trend strength of both is - 1 [53][55]. - Iron Ore: Fluctuates widely. The trend strength is 0 [56]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Both fluctuate widely. The trend strength of both is 0 [58][61]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Market sentiment causes fluctuations, and both fluctuate widely. The trend strength of both is 0 [62][64]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Expectations are volatile, and both fluctuate widely. The trend strength of both is 0 [65][66]. 3.3 Others - Double - Offset Paper: The fundamentals are relatively oversupplied, and the low benchmark price opens up bilateral operation space [9]. - Logs: Fluctuate repeatedly [68].

烧碱：市场仍宽幅震荡。 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 01合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2569 870 2719 150 2025 年 9 月 10 日 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 以山东地区为基准，今日，省内液碱市场整体持稳，部分散户高价走货不畅，有企业暗降出货。近期关 注主力下游送货量及碱厂库存的变化。 【市场状况分析】 烧碱趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 烧碱目前驱动不足，盘面预期博弈，市场呈现宽幅震荡。目前烧碱上涨的堵点主要来自出口和氧化铝。 从出口方面看，Vinythai 新增产能、日韩高供应使得东南亚供应充足，出口利润始终无法扩张，出口签单 未改善，50 碱-32 碱价差偏弱，导致烧碱上涨驱动不足。从氧化铝方面看，氧化铝高产量、 ...

2025 年 9 月 10 日 LPG：地缘风险升温，油价上行 丙烯：供应装置波动，现货成交走高 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2510 | 4,403 | -0.83% | 4,422 | 0.43% | | 期货价格 | PG2511 | 4,354 | -0.55% | 4,375 | 0.48% | | | PL2601 | 6,402 | -0.12% | 6,404 | 0.03% | | | PL2602 | 6,435 | -0.36% | 6,448 | 0.20% | | 持仓&成交 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2510 | 60,218 | -21033 | 65,298 | -678 | | | ...

2025 年 09 月 10 日 商 品 研 究 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 Si2511收盘价（元/吨） | T 8,410 | T-1 -120 | T-5 -60 | T-22 -300 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511成交量（手） | 389,876 | -80,819 | 44,263 | -40,596 | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 286,040 | -3,531 | 4,560 | 47,355 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 53,520 | -2,190 | 1,645 | - | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 584,927 | 128,047 | 54,149 | - | | | | PS2511持仓量（手） | 142,980 | -11,031 | -2,875 | - | | | | 工业硅：近月合约对连一价差（元/吨） | 160 | -20 | 155 | 160 | | | | 工业硅：买近月抛连一跨期 ...

2025年09月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：窄幅震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：现实与预期博弈，钢价或震荡运行 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：大厂复产进度超预期，弱势运行 | 4 | | 工业硅：情绪回落，逢高布空思路 | 6 | | 多晶硅：情绪降温 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 资料来源：国泰君安期货、同花顺、Mysteel、SMM 【宏观及行业新闻】 镍基本面数据 镍：窄幅震荡运行 不锈钢：现实与预期博弈，钢价或震荡运行 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 10 日 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 120,700 | ...

商 品 研 究 2025年09月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：市场情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：市场情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 10 日 铁矿石：宽幅震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期货 | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) 805.0 | 涨跌(元/吨) 13.0 | 涨跌幅 1.64% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | l 2601 | | | 昨日持仓 (手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 541. 200 | 29.08 ...