Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Alumina: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Monitor policy implementation progress [1] Core Viewpoints - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including futures market prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot market prices, import and export profits and losses, and inventory levels [1]. - It also presents some external information such as Dalio's warning about the US economic situation and the US 8 - month ISM manufacturing PMI data [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20,720, with a change of 75 compared to T - 1. The trading volume was 103,466, a decrease of 55,120 from T - 1. The open interest was 213,947, down 7,232 from T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 3,022, up 14 from T - 1. The trading volume was 310,480, a decrease of 45,801 from T - 1. The open interest was 242,297, down 5,508 from T - 1 [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,300, up 25 from T - 1. The trading volume was 1,760, a decrease of 199 from T - 1. The open interest was 8,140, down 81 from T - 1 [1]. Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 616,000 tons, unchanged from T - 1. The LME aluminum ingot inventory was 479,600 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from T - 1. The aluminum spot import loss was 1,236.17 yuan, a loss increase of 52.67 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic average alumina price was 3,212 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan from T - 1. The alumina CIF price at Lianyungang was 386 US dollars per ton, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The three - place inventory totaled 34,501 tons, an increase of 786 tons from T - 1 [1]. Other Information - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity was 0; alumina trend intensity was 0; aluminum alloy trend intensity was 0 [3]. - **External News**: Dalio warned that Trump was leading the US towards a 1930s - style governance model, and the US might face a debt crisis in three years. The US 8 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, contracting for the sixth consecutive month [3].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The expectation for the pig industry has weakened [1] - The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [4] - At the end of the month and the beginning of the new month, large - scale pig - farming groups significantly reduced their supply, and the spot price realized the market's rebound expectation. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale groups will increase in August, and small - scale farmers are forced to hold back pigs. There is still supply pressure in September. The production capacity cycle and inventory cycle will resonate from September to October, and it is advisable to enter the 11 - 1 inverse spread. The purchasing sentiment for piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of slaughter from March to May. Attention should be paid to the downward - moving driver of the far - end central price, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2601 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,180 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 13,850 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 200 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 15,840 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 300 yuan/ton [3] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the pig 2511 contract is 13,595 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the price of the pig 2601 contract is 13,860 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 20 yuan/ton; the price of the pig 2603 contract is 13,095 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 15 yuan/ton [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For the pig 2511 contract, the trading volume is 26,042 lots, a decrease of 4,481 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 73,388 lots, a decrease of 2,076 lots from the previous day. For the pig 2601 contract, the trading volume is 11,472 lots, a decrease of 2,658 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 48,756 lots, an increase of 278 lots from the previous day. For the pig 2603 contract, the trading volume is 2,845 lots, a decrease of 1,349 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 32,584 lots, an increase of 373 lots from the previous day [3] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the pig 2511 contract is 585 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the basis of the pig 2601 contract is 320 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 70 yuan/ton; the basis of the pig 2603 contract is 1,085 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The 11 - 1 spread of pigs is - 265 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the 1 - 3 spread of pigs is 765 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 35 yuan/ton [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of methanol is 1, indicating a neutral to slightly positive outlook. The short - term view is that methanol may have a rebound, and the medium - term outlook is a震荡格局 (oscillating pattern). [5] 2. Report's Core View - The methanol market shows a short - term rebound and a medium - term oscillating pattern. Short - term is influenced by macro events like the September 3rd parade, while medium - term the market will return to fundamental trading logic. The short - term fundamental contradictions are significant, with high port inventories and potential support from policies. [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the methanol main contract was 2,372 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,378 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan. The trading volume was 466,676 lots, a decrease of 139,335 lots; the open interest of the 01 contract was 807,495 lots, an increase of 8,187 lots. The basis was - 155, down 19, and the monthly spread (MA09 - MA01) was - 160, down 1. [2] - **Spot Market**: The Jiangsu ex - tank price dropped from 2,250 yuan/ton to 0; the Inner Mongolia price remained at 2,030 yuan/ton; the Shaanbei price decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 2,020 yuan/ton; the Shandong price stayed at 2,250 yuan/ton. [2] 3.2 Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 2,143.94, down 0.72. The Taicang spot price was 2,235, up 5, and the Inner Mongolia north - line price was 2,042.5, down 2.5. Among 20 monitored cities, 5 saw price drops of 2.5 - 50 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol market showed a differentiated performance, with futures narrowly consolidating, ports having slight increases, and some inland areas with price cuts. [4] 3.3 Market Outlook - In the short - term, methanol may follow the macro trend and oscillate strongly due to the September 3rd parade event. In the medium - term, it will return to fundamental trading logic as the equity market enters an oscillating pattern. The short - term fundamental contradictions are large, with high port inventories and potential support from policies. Overall, it has a short - term rebound and a medium - term oscillating pattern. [4][5]

2025 年 09 月 03 日 白糖：Conab 下调巴西产量 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 高频信息：Conab 下调 25/26 榨季巴西产量至 4450 万吨，前值 4590 万吨。印度季风降水量较 LPA 高 6.7%（9 月 1 日）。巴西 7 月出口 359 万吨，同比减少 5%。中国 7 月进口食糖 74 万吨（+32 万吨）。 国内市场：CAOC 预计 24/25 榨季国内食糖产量为 1116 万吨，消费量为 1580 万吨，进口量为 500 万吨； CAOC 预计 25/26 榨季国内食糖产量为 1120 万吨，消费量为 1590 万吨，进口量为 500 万吨。中国糖业协会 数据显示，截至 5 月底，24/25 榨季全国共生产食糖 1116 万吨（+120 万吨），全国累计销售食糖 811 万吨 （+152 万吨），累计销糖率 72.7%。中国海关数据显示，截至 7 月底，24/25 榨季中国累计进口食糖 324 万吨 （-34 万吨）。25/26 榨季，市场预期广西出糖率下降、生产成本上升。 国际市场：ISO 首次预计 25/2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report indicates that the basis of lithium carbonate has slightly recovered, and the weak and volatile trend continues. The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 0, suggesting a neutral outlook [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 73,280 yuan, down 2,260 yuan; the trading volume was 880, a decrease of 1,546; and the open interest was 7,694, down 3,638. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 72,620 yuan, down 2,940 yuan; the trading volume was 620,441, an increase of 80,146; and the open interest was 348,109, an increase of 8,976 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 32,007 lots, an increase of 810 lots [1]. - **Basis Data**: The basis of spot - 2509 was 4,220 yuan, an increase of 1,410 yuan; the basis of spot - 2511 was 4,880 yuan, an increase of 2,090 yuan; the basis of 2509 - 2511 was 660 yuan, a decrease of 20 yuan; the difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon was 2,300 yuan, unchanged; and the difference between spot and CIF was 10,313 yuan, a decrease of 272 yuan [1]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 887 yuan, down 11 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,920 yuan, down 30 yuan [1]. - **Lithium Salt and Related Product Prices**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 77,500 yuan, down 850 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 75,200 yuan, down 850 yuan. Other related product prices also showed certain changes [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Lithium Carbonate Price**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 77,386 yuan/ton, down 870 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 77,500 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 75,200 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan/ton [2]. - **New Energy Vehicle Sales**: In August, the estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide were 1.3 million, a year - on - year increase of 24% and a month - on - month increase of 10%. From January to August this year, the cumulative wholesale sales were 8.93 million, a year - on - year increase of 34% [2][3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For LPG, macro risks are intensifying, and crude oil costs are rising [1] - For propylene, the spot price support remains, but attention should be paid to the risk of price decline [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **LPG Futures Prices**: PG2510 closed at 4,421 yesterday with a 0.66% increase and 4,436 in the night session with a 0.34% increase; PG2511 closed at 4,342 yesterday with a 0.79% increase and 4,361 in the night session with a 0.44% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,405 yesterday with a -0.28% decrease and 6,425 in the night session with a 0.31% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,432 yesterday with a -0.23% decrease and 6,450 in the night session with a 0.28% increase [1] - **LPG Trading Volume and Open Interest**: PG2510 had a trading volume of 81,890 yesterday, a decrease of 3,573 from the previous day, and an open interest of 74,648, a decrease of 3,176 from the previous day; PG2511 had a trading volume of 17,534 yesterday, a decrease of 4,790 from the previous day, and an open interest of 36,095, an increase of 993 from the previous day; PL2601 had a trading volume of 4,421 yesterday, a decrease of 712 from the previous day, and an open interest of 8,146, an increase of 1,311 from the previous day; PL2602 had a trading volume of 34 yesterday, a decrease of 42 from the previous day, and an open interest of 862, an increase of 13 from the previous day [1] - **LPG Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG10 contract was 39 yesterday, compared to 138 the previous day; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG10 contract was 79 yesterday, compared to 138 the previous day; the spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was 230 yesterday, compared to 192 the previous day; the spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was 170 yesterday, compared to 127 the previous day; the spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was 70 yesterday, compared to 52 the previous day [1] - **LPG Industry Chain Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 73.0%, down from 75.7% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.5%, unchanged from the previous level; the alkylation operating rate was 49.6%, up from 49.0% [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [5] 3.3 Market News - On September 2, 2025, the October CP paper cargo price for propane was 540 US dollars per ton, up 6 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day; the price for butane was 514 US dollars per ton, up 6 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day. The November CP paper cargo price for propane was 551 US dollars per ton, up 7 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day [6] - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, including those of Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. Additionally, Ningbo Jinfa's 1 (60) is expected to stop for maintenance for 3 weeks in early September [7] - There are domestic liquefied gas plant device maintenance plans, but specific details are not provided in the text [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trading of domestic cotton spot is sluggish, with a shortage of high - quality spot inventory. Spinning mills only make purchases based on rigid demand, and most sales basis of cotton spot remain stable [2]. - The trading in the domestic pure - cotton yarn market is average. Downstream customers report insufficient new orders and mainly make rigid - demand purchases. Prices are generally stable, with most spinning mills holding firm on prices and some offering promotional discounts. The market is highly concerned about subsequent orders in September and the marginal changes in the downstream [2]. - The ICE cotton futures declined yesterday due to concerns about the listing pressure of new US cotton crops and the strengthening of the US dollar [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2601 closed at 14,045 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.14%, and its night - session closing price was the same as the previous day. The trading volume was 338,147 lots, a decrease of 347,135 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 710,163 lots, a decrease of 5,361 lots [1]. - CY2511 closed at 19,995 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decrease of 0.12%, and its night - session closing price was 20,020 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.13%. The trading volume was 9,362 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 24,498 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - ICE US cotton 12 closed at 66.05 cents/pound yesterday with a decrease of 0.72% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 6,131, a decrease of 189 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 0 [1]. - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 60, an increase of 3 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 6, an increase of 54 from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: - The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,297 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.13%. The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,993 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.13% [1]. - The price in Shandong was 15,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.45%. The price in Hebei was 15,412 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.28% [1]. - The 3128B index was 15,412 yuan/ton, a decrease of 67 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.43%. The international cotton index M: CNCottonM was 74.16 cents/pound, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,780 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,766 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.15% [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The CF1 - 5 spread was 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Based on TTEB information, the overall trading of cotton spot is sluggish. High - quality spot inventory is scarce, and spinning mills only make rigid - demand purchases. Most sales basis of cotton spot remain stable. For example, the mainstream lower sales basis of 2024/25 Nanjiang Kashi machine - picked 3129/29B with impurities within 3.5 is in the range of CF01 + 1100 - 1200, and more sales basis are above CF01 + 1200, for inland self - pick - up. A small amount of 2024/25 Beijiang local machine - picked 4129/29 - 30B with impurities within 3 was traded at around CF01 + 1400 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: According to TTEB information, the trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is average. Downstream customers report insufficient new orders and mainly make rigid - demand purchases. Prices are generally stable, with most spinning mills holding firm on prices and some offering promotional discounts. The market is highly concerned about subsequent orders in September and the marginal changes in the downstream [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures declined yesterday due to concerns about the listing pressure of new US cotton crops and the strengthening of the US dollar [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, with the value range of trend intensity being an integer within the [- 2,2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [5].

2025 年 9 月 3 日 沥青：地缘事件发酵，油品共振偏强 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2510 | 元/吨 | 3,551 | 0.31% | 3,541 | -0.28% | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,543 | 0.60% | 3,534 | -0.25% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2510 | 手 | 152,509 | (12,114) | 105,860 | (3,747) | | | BU2511 | 手 | 122,715 | 11,460 | 229,884 | 29,578 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 70300 | -1000 | | | | | | | 昨日价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil shows prominent macro - impact, with an oscillating rebound; soybean oil experiences high - level oscillation, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil narrows [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking Futures - Palm oil main contract: closing price (day session) is 9,380 yuan/ton with a 0.54% increase, closing price (night session) is 9,482 yuan/ton with a 1.09% increase; trading volume is 274 lots with an increase of 19 lots, and open interest is 1,883 lots with a decrease of 257 lots [2] - Soybean oil main contract: closing price (day session) is 8,422 yuan/ton with a 0.38% increase, closing price (night session) is 8,394 yuan/ton with a 0.33% decrease; trading volume is 406 lots with a decrease of 633 lots, and open interest is 3,467 lots with a decrease of 400 lots [2] - Rapeseed oil main contract: closing price (day session) is 9,950 yuan/ton with a 0.20% increase, closing price (night session) is 9,798 yuan/ton with a 1.53% decrease; trading volume is 404 lots with a decrease of 240 lots, and open interest is 5,219 lots with a decrease of 370 lots [2] - Malaysian palm oil main contract: closing price is 4,474 ringgit/ton with a 2.22% increase, closing price (night session) is 4,489 ringgit/ton with a 0.29% increase [2] - CBOT soybean oil main contract: closing price is 52.50 cents/pound with a 0.69% increase [2] Spot - 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong: spot price is 9,330 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase [2] - First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong: spot price is 8,680 yuan/ton with no price change [2] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi: spot price is 9,760 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan decrease [2] - Malaysian palm oil FOB price (continuous contract): 1,095 dollars/ton with no price change [2] Basis - Palm oil basis in Guangdong: - 50 yuan/ton [2] - Soybean oil basis in Guangdong: 258 yuan/ton [2] - Rapeseed oil basis in Guangxi: - 190 yuan/ton [2] Spread - Rapeseed - palm oil futures main contract spread: 344 yuan/ton (previous two - day spread was 417 yuan/ton) [2] - Soybean - palm oil futures main contract spread: - 1,066 yuan/ton (previous two - day spread was - 1,036 yuan/ton) [2] - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread: - 42 yuan/ton (previous two - day spread was - 54 yuan/ton) [2] - Soybean oil 9 - 1 spread: 66 yuan/ton (previous two - day spread was 42 yuan/ton) [2] - Rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread: 184 yuan/ton (previous two - day spread was 129 yuan/ton) [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SPPOMA: From August 1 - 31, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 4.18% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.29% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 2.65% month - on - month [3] - AmSpec: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 31, 2025, was 1,341,990 tons, a 15.37% increase compared with the same period last month [4] - SGS: It is estimated that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 31, 2025, was 1,170,043 tons, a 30.53% increase compared with the same period last month [5] - India's palm oil imports in August increased by 16% month - on - month to 993,000 tons, reaching the highest level in 13 months; soybean oil imports decreased by 28% month - on - month to 355,000 tons, the lowest level in six months; sunflower oil imports increased by 27% month - on - month to 255,000 tons, the highest level in seven months; total edible oil imports increased by 3.6% month - on - month to 1.6 million tons, the highest level in 13 months [5] - USDA crop growth report: As of the week ending August 31, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, lower than the market expectation of 68%, 69% in the previous week, and 65% in the same period last year; the pod - setting rate was 94%, 89% in the previous week, 93% in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 94%; the defoliation rate was 11%, 4% in the previous week, 12% in the same period last year, and the five - year average was 10% [5] - USDA export inspection report: As of the week ending August 28, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 472,914 tons, in line with expectations; the soybean export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons. As of the week ending August 29, 2024, the US soybean export inspection volume was 502,934 tons. As of now in this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume is 49,763,188 tons, compared with 44,717,223 tons in the same period last year [6] - USDA monthly crushing: The US soybean crushing volume in July 2025 was 6.14 million short tons (204.7 million bushels), 5.91 million short tons (197 million bushels) in June, and 5.8 million short tons (193 million bushels) in July 2024 [6] - IMEA: The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso from August 25 - 29, 2025, was 441.19 reais/ton, compared with 387.05 reais/ton in the previous week. The soybean meal price in this state was 1,562.90 reais/ton, and the soybean oil price was 6,358.81 reais/ton [6] - As of August 31, 2025, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/26 season were 420,000 tons, compared with 580,000 tons in the same period last year; soybean imports were 2.29 million tons, compared with 2.42 million tons in the same period last year; soybean meal imports were 3.12 million tons, compared with 3.25 million tons in the same period last year; rapeseed imports were 440,000 tons, compared with 860,000 tons in the same period last year [7] - Ukrainian farmers have started large - scale winter sowing activities. As of September 1, 2025, 377,100 hectares of winter rapeseed crops have been sown, accounting for 33.8% of the estimated planting area, almost the same as the sown area in the same period last year [7] - Ukrainian President Zelensky has signed a bill imposing a 10% export tax on soybeans and rapeseed. The export tax will last until January 1, 2030, and then decrease by 1% annually until it reaches 5%. The new regulation will take effect on the second day after the official announcement of the decree [7] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0; soybean oil trend intensity: 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [8]

2025 年 09 月 03 日 尿素：短期有反弹，中期仍承压 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | | 项 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 （元/吨） | | 1,746 | 1,743 | 3 -24363 | | | | 结算价 （元/吨） | | 1,747 | 1,737 | 1 0 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 158,733 | 183,096 | | | | （01合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 219,382 | 220,274 | -892 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 7,205 | 7,205 | 0 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 554,611 | 636,252 | -81640 | | | 基 差 | 山东地区基差 | | -36 | -43 | 7 | | | | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -136 | -123 | -13 | | | | 东光-盘面 ...