二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 21 日 棕榈油：高产压力未释放完毕，持续磨底 豆油：美豆压力仍大，豆油震荡偏弱运行 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：高产边际交易难言充分，高库存压制反弹高度，原油价格再次挑战年内低点，内外交困下棕 榈油 05 合约周跌 3.04%。 豆油：缺乏南美天气炒作，美豆上方驱动有限，油脂板块整体尚未企稳，豆油 05 合约周跌 3.53%。 本周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：高产量和低需求共同将马来 12 月库存拱上 280 万吨高度，直逼 2018 年的库存高位，也使 得报告后利空出尽的反弹交易十分乏力，市场不愿继续押注产量拐点，因此虽然逢低做多是减产季的常态 化交易选择，但目前来看棕榈油估值既不够低，驱动也没有，需要更多月份的产量数据以验证市场现在关 于棕榈高产的种种猜测，究竟是样本增加及劳工增加带来的常态化产量抬升还是树龄及降雨导致的增产结 果。随着雨季及台风高强度降水的到来，如果 12 月顺利环比减产至 170 万吨一线，则棕榈油可以短期确 认底部，但如果环比减产幅度一直不足 10%， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term nickel price support has strengthened, but the upward space still depends on the implementation of Indonesian policies. The previous trading logic was about excess pressure and wet - process production expectations. Indonesian news has weakened short - sellers' confidence, and there may be a catch - up increase in nickel prices. The fundamentals of refined nickel have shifted from supply - strong and demand - weak to supply - demand weakness, and the excess pressure has been structurally transferred. However, the expectation of increased supply from the low - cost wet - process path in the long - term still exists, limiting the upward elasticity of nickel prices [3]. - The fundamental contradictions of stainless steel are not prominent, and attention should be paid to the disturbances of Indonesian policy news. Indonesian policies increase the uncertainty of nickel - iron costs. If the quota policy is implemented, the excess contradiction of nickel elements may be turned into a shortage. The resource tax implementation depends on the pricing model of associated resources. The stainless steel market is in the off - season, with weak demand and low supply growth, showing a slight excess. The cost of nickel - iron has slightly increased, and the bottom - line safety margin of stainless steel is good, but the upward drive depends on the implementation of Indonesian policies [3][4]. Summary According to Related Catalogs News Review - The Indonesian government urged enterprises to resubmit the 2026 RKAB budget, and market news said that Indonesia hopes to cut the nickel ore quota to 2.5 billion tons. This may cause a shortage of ore, reverse the excess expectation of primary nickel to a shortage, but the actual implementation remains to be seen [1]. - Indonesia may include associated minerals such as cobalt in nickel ore into the tax system. The previous adjustment of the resource tax on high - grade nickel ore increased the theoretical smelting cost by about 700 yuan/metal ton, but the cost increase may not be fully passed on. The impact of taxing cobalt on cost depends on the base - price formula, and the impact on cost should not be overestimated, but there are uncertainties for pyrometallurgical and hydrometallurgical enterprises [2]. Market Outlook - Nickel: Short - term price support is enhanced, but the upward space depends on policy implementation. The fundamentals have changed to supply - demand weakness, and attention should be paid to the possibility of hidden restocking at low prices. The expected increase in low - cost wet - process supply in the long - term restricts the upward elasticity [3]. - Stainless steel: The fundamentals show a slight excess, and the cost has slightly increased. The bottom - line safety margin is good, but the upward drive depends on the implementation of Indonesian policies [4]. Inventory Tracking - Refined nickel: China's social inventory increased by 281 tons to 56,988 tons, with an increase of 2,352 tons in warehouse receipt inventory, a decrease of 2,071 tons in spot inventory, and no change in bonded - area inventory. LME nickel inventory increased by 1,518 tons to 254,550 tons [5]. - New energy: On December 19, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed by +1, - 1, 0 month - on - month to 5, 8, 7 days respectively; the precursor inventory changed by +0.8 month - on - month to 13.1 days; the ternary material inventory remained flat at 6.9 days on December 18 [5]. - Nickel - iron - stainless steel: On November 30, SMM nickel - iron inventory was 29,346 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. In November, SMM stainless - steel factory inventory was 1.588 million tons, a year - on - month/ month - on - month increase of 6%/1%. On December 18, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1,042,148 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.01%. Among them, the inventory of cold - rolled stainless steel decreased by 1.5% week - on - week, and that of hot - rolled stainless steel decreased by 2.73% week - on - week [5]. Market News - On September 12, due to violating forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over a more than 148 - hectare nickel - ore mining area of PT Weda Bay Nickel, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - ore output by about 600 metal tons [6]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [7]. - On September 22, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies, and the sanctions will be cancelled if the companies submit claim plans and guarantees [7]. - On September 30, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order regarding the RKAB approval process. The approval plan for the next - year's RKAB is expected to be completed by November 15 this year, and there are transitional provisions [8]. - Trump announced on October 10 that he might impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1 and implement export controls on "all key software" [8]. - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for certain nickel - related products through the OSS platform [9]. - Due to strengthened safety inspections in Indonesian industrial parks, some nickel - wet - process projects will reduce production in December, affecting the output by about 6,000 nickel - metal tons [11]. - On November 21, the dovish remarks of New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran increased investors' probability of expecting a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in December [11]. - On December 12, China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs decided to implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [11]. - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources will revise the benchmark - price formula for nickel - ore commodities in early 2026, and may treat cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [11]. - Market news said that the Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel - ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [11]. Key Data Tracking - The table shows the weekly key data tracking of nickel and stainless steel, including futures prices, spot prices, spreads, import profits, etc. For example, the closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 117,180, and the closing price of the main stainless - steel contract is 12,720 [13].

硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 资料来源：Mysteel、iFInd、国泰君安期货研究所 2 资料来源 Mysteel 、iFInd国泰君安期货研究所 ： ◼ 本周合金价格走势震荡偏强，主要受到宏观与基本面双重作用影响。上周"反内卷"或使得市场交易情绪对低估值品种再度袭来，叠加合金端的供 应变动及煤焦板块对合金盘面的情绪冲击，使得价格走势偏强，但大厂对盘套保意愿显现，叠加需求短期偏弱迹象仍存，盘面高度或有压力 。 ◼ 宏观：国内：中央经济工作会议进一步明确了明年经济工作的方向和任务： ①传统稳增长领域，重新释放了诸多稳增长信号，超出市场预期 ②在 物价方面，在多个领域提到涉及物价或反内卷方面的工作，显示政策重视的态度；海外：美联储如期再降息25基点。 ◼ 微观：铁水产量继续走弱，对原料需求支撑偏弱，当前锰硅基本面矛盾继续累积，硅铁减产缓解前序压力，仍需注意炉料供应端生产节奏的变动。 ◼ 本周合金端，成本均表现坚挺，供应环比走弱，硅铁减产力度较大，使得市场交易供应预期收紧情绪较强，但上升力度有限，需关注盘面回升后利 润修复，或使得宁夏地区大厂生产节奏存在变动；锰硅端，锰矿需求维持，海外矿企1月报价环比抬升，港口锰矿价 ...

Report Overview - **Report Date**: December 21, 2025 - **Report Title**: "Pigs: Weak Peak Season, Falsification of Pig Shortage Logic" - **Analysts**: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Wu Hao 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (12.15 - 12.21), the spot market for pigs showed a strong - oscillating trend, with the supply increasing moderately before the Winter Solstice peak season and the demand rising due to cooling and Winter Solstice consumption. The futures market also had a strong - oscillating trend. Next week (12.22 - 12.28), the spot price of pigs will be weakly oscillating due to large supply pressure despite demand boosts. The LH2601 futures contract price is under pressure, with a short - term support level of 10,500 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 11,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the 3 - 7 reverse spread [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review (12.15 - 12.21) 3.1.1 Spot Market - The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 21.1 yuan/kg (unchanged from last week), the price of pigs in Henan was 11.78 yuan/kg (up from 11.43 yuan/kg last week), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1,546 yuan/head (unchanged from last week). - Before the Winter Solstice peak season, enterprises increased their sales volume, and individual farmers followed suit, resulting in a moderate increase in supply. The demand increased due to cooling and Winter Solstice consumption, and the slaughter volume in the north and south reached a new high. The average national slaughter weight this week was 124.79KG, a 0.16% increase from last week [1] 3.1.2 Futures Market - The LH2601 futures contract price was strongly oscillating, with a maximum of 11,495 yuan/ton, a minimum of 11,080 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 11,150 yuan/ton (down from 11,485 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2601 contract was 630 yuan/ton (up from - 55 yuan/ton last week) [2] 3.2 Next Week's Market Outlook (12.22 - 12.28) 3.2.1 Spot Market - The spot price of pigs will be weakly oscillating. The overall slaughter progress in November was slow, and the increase in feed consumption indicates a large basic stock. Although the cooling and Winter Solstice demand boosted the downstream, the supply increased more before the Winter Solstice peak season, resulting in a weak peak season and large supply pressure. The supply is in a continuous increasing stage, and the demand in December has been fulfilled, but there are still some individual farmers engaging in secondary fattening and holding back pigs. There will be a one - month demand vacuum period in the future, and enterprises are more willing to slaughter and reduce weight in January, so the spot price will continue to be under pressure [3] 3.2.2 Futures Market - The LH2601 contract price closed at 11,150 yuan/ton on December 19. Although the slaughter volume before the Winter Solstice reached a new high this year, the increase in the spot price was less than expected, the supply pressure was still not effectively released, and the discount delivery expectation increased after the Winter Solstice. Attention should be paid to the 3 - 7 reverse spread, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level of the LH2601 contract is 10,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 11,500 yuan/ton [4] 3.3 Other Data - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: This week, the basis was 630 yuan/ton, and the LH2601 - LH2603 monthly spread was - 175 yuan/ton [9] - **Supply Data**: This week's average weight was 124.79KG (up from 124.59KG last week). In October, the pork production was 5.605 billion tons, a 5.5% increase from the previous month, and the pork import was 7.14 million tons, an 11.14% decrease from the previous month [12]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The recent rebound in the coal and coke futures market is mainly driven by the game of the main contract approaching delivery and the impact of government intervention on market expectations. However, the current supply - demand pattern shows both supply and demand are weak. With limited driving force from the winter storage replenishment market, the report is skeptical about the sustainability of a significant upward trend in prices [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Coal and Coke Weekly Viewpoint - **Supply**: This week, coal mines in major producing areas were restricted by factors such as safety inspections and underground working conditions, resulting in continuous production disruptions. The overall supply was difficult to fully release, and the resumption of production was slow. The daily output of raw coal in sample coal mines increased by 29,000 tons week - on - week [3]. - **Demand**: The restocking demand of coking and steel enterprises has rebounded, and the demand for some high - quality coal types has recovered, but the overall demand is still limited. This week, the molten iron output continued to decline significantly, decreasing by 26,500 tons week - on - week to 2.2655 million tons. On Friday, the third round of price cuts for coke was initiated and is expected to be implemented next Monday [4]. - **Macro**: To cope with the start of the 15th Five - Year Plan, there are relatively frequent domestic year - end meetings, which can still boost market risk appetite to a certain extent, and the valuations of various risk assets have shown a certain upward repair [5]. Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Category | Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 8.4055 million tons (- 109,000 tons); FW clean coal 4.3208 million tons (- 81,000 tons) | Independent coking plants' daily average 630,000 tons (- 98,000 tons); Steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average 464,900 tons (- 12,000 tons) | | Demand | Molten iron output 2.2655 million tons (- 26,500 tons) | Molten iron output 2.2655 million tons (- 26,500 tons) | | Inventory | MS total inventory + 120,000 tons; Mine raw coal + 65,000 tons; Independent coking - 10,000 tons; Mine clean coal + 175,000 tons; Steel mill coking + 103,000 tons; Port - 213,000 tons; FW port + 341,000 tons | MS total inventory - 33,000 tons; Independent coking - 55,000 tons; Steel mill - 15,200 tons; Port + 38,000 tons | | Profit | Commodity coal 516 yuan/ton (- 8 yuan/ton) | Coking enterprises' average profit 16 yuan/ton (- 28 yuan/ton) | | Warehouse Receipt | Mongolian 5 coal in Tangshan warehouse receipt 1,135 yuan/ton | Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt 1,621 yuan/ton | [8] 01 Coking Coal Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Data on coking coal supply includes weekly and monthly production of raw coal and clean coal, as well as Mongolian coal customs clearance volume. For example, the weekly production of FW raw coal and clean coal has decreased, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at different ports shows different trends [10][12][14]. - **Inventory**: Coking coal inventory data is presented in multiple aspects, including pit - mouth, port, coking plant, and steel mill inventories. This week, the coking coal port inventory decreased by 213,300 tons week - on - week to 2.8617 million tons. The raw coal inventory of sample coal mines increased by 99,000 tons week - on - week to 2.0808 million tons, and the clean coal inventory increased by 66,300 tons week - on - week to 1.3315 million tons [23][25][27]. 02 Coke Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The supply data of coke includes the capacity utilization rate and production of coking plants and steel mills. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants and steel enterprises shows different levels and trends. For example, the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises for coke production is around 82% - 89% [38][40]. - **Inventory**: Coke inventory data is presented for coking plants, steel mills, and the overall sample. The inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills' coking plants shows different changes. For example, the inventory of independent coking enterprises' coke has changed over time [46][47]. - **Supply - Demand and Profit**: The supply - demand difference of coke and the profit situation of coking enterprises are also presented. The profit of coking enterprises has decreased, with the average profit of coking enterprises decreasing by 28 yuan/ton week - on - week to 16 yuan/ton [55][58]. 03 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures**: The report provides the futures market data of coking coal 2601 and 2605, and coke 2601 and 2605, including closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests. The prices of coking coal and coke futures have shown certain fluctuations in recent days [62][64]. - **Spot**: The spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke are presented, such as the car - board prices of different grades of coking coal in different regions and the prices of quasi - first - grade and second - grade coke [70]. - **Spread and Basis**: The coal - coke monthly spread and basis are also analyzed. With the significant rebound of the futures market, the basis has fallen from a high level [66][72].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The core view is that the macro - risk appetite is being repaired again, and iron ore prices are strengthening in the short - term. Fundamentally, there has been no significant change in the supply - demand balance of iron ore, but the previously mentioned structural supply issues and macro factors still support its high valuation. The price's return to the fundamentals awaits the fading of macro - impacts [3][5]. 3. Summary by Sections Supply - **Mainstream Mines**: Global iron ore shipments have increased again, with Brazil contributing significantly to the growth. The cumulative global shipments from the beginning of the year to now reached 156,766.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. Australian shipments were 89,537.8 million tons, up 0.3% year - on - year, and Brazilian shipments were 38,237.2 million tons, a 2.3% year - on - year increase [4]. - **Non - mainstream Mines**: The overall performance of non - mainstream mines is neutral [21]. - **Domestic Mines**: The capacity utilization rate in North China has declined recently [29]. Demand - **Downstream Demand**: Demand continues the seasonal downward trend. The daily average of 45 - port imported ore evacuation volume and the actual output of five major steel products are showing a downward trend [32][33]. - **Scrap Steel Substitution**: The price of scrap steel has rebounded recently, and the low - level rebound of the scrap - iron price difference continues [35]. Inventory - Steel mills' inventory is actively being depleted. The inventory of imported ore in 45 ports is 15,512.6 million tons [4][39]. Price Performance - **Contract Performance**: The price of the main 05 contract has weakened in a volatile manner, closing at 780.00 yuan/ton, with a position of 535,000 hands, a week - on - week increase of 69,400 hands. The average daily trading volume was 269,000 hands, a week - on - week decrease of 9,600 hands [7]. - **Spot Price**: The price of medium - grade iron ore has increased relatively more. For example, the price of BRBF (62.5%) increased from 817 yuan/ton last week to 831 yuan/ton this week [12]. Spread - **Spot Category Spread**: The price of medium - grade PB is relatively strong, and the spread between domestic iron concentrate and PB has been continuously declining [45]. - **Futures Monthly Spread**: The 1 - 5 monthly spread shows signs of further convergence, and the 5 - 9 monthly spread is relatively stable [48]. - **Basis**: The basis has weakened, approaching last year's level [51].

2025 年 12 月 21 日 碳酸锂：大厂复产预期延后，短期高位运行 二 〇 二 五 年 度 | 邵婉嫕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi020696@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘鸿儒 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023466 | liuhongru028781@gtjas.com | 报告导读： 本周价格走势：偏强运行，突破前高 碳酸锂期货合约本周呈上行态势，突破前高。2601 合约收于 109720 元/吨，周环比上涨 13800 元/吨， 2605 合约收于 111400 元/吨，周环比上涨 13680 元/吨，现货周环比上涨 3150 元/吨至 97650 元/吨。 SMM 期现基差（2601 合约）下跌 10650 元/吨至-12070 元/吨，富宝贸易商升贴水报价-1300 元/吨，周环 比持平。2601-2605 合约价差-1680 元/吨，环比走强 120 元/吨。 供需基本面：大厂复产预期延后，去库速度放缓 原料：12 月 18 日江西省宜丰县圳口里-奉新县枧下窝锂矿采矿项目环境影响评价第一次环评信公示， 根据环评 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Report's Core View - Expected boost has led to a rebound in steel prices [3] Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Macro - environment - Overseas: Interest rates were cut as scheduled in December, releasing liquidity [5][9] - Domestic: The Central Economic Work Conference re - emphasized "anti - involution", and state - owned enterprises were required to resist "involution - style" competition, creating a generally warm macro - environment. Policy expectations were reignited, and coking coal near the cost line rebounded rapidly [5][8] 2. Black Industry Chain - The industry is in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Demand has entered the off - season, steel inventories are high, seasonal maintenance has increased, and hot - rolled coil inventory reduction is difficult, suppressing the overall rebound height of steel prices. Negative feedback dominates the industrial logic [5][13] 3. Rebar (Thread Steel) 3.1 Basis and Spread - Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3300 (+30) yuan/ton, the 01 - contract price was 3120 (+38) yuan/ton. The 01 - contract basis was 180 (-8) yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was 1 (-21) yuan/ton [20] 3.2 Demand - New - home sales remained at a low level, indicating low market confidence. Second - hand home sales remained high, showing the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area also remained low [24] 3.3 Supply and Inventory - MS weekly data showed low supply and demand, and healthy inventory. The short - and long - process production and inventory data presented different trends [27][28] 3.4 Production Profit - Last week, the rebar spot profit was 159 (+13) yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 197 (-33) yuan/ton. It is expected that after the Spring Festival, production will resume, and the main - contract profit will shrink [33] 4. Hot - rolled Coil 4.1 Basis and Spread - Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3270 (+30) yuan/ton, the 01 - contract futures price was 3276 (+36) yuan/ton. The 01 - contract basis was - 6 (-6) yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was 7 (-1) yuan/ton [38] 4.2 Demand - Demand from the home appliance and automobile industries was poor, and the peak season was not prosperous. After January 1st next year, new steel export regulations will be implemented, restricting "paid - for" exports. In the short term, there will be an increase in rush - to - export, resulting in a stronger near - term and weaker far - term price spread [39][40] 4.3 Supply and Inventory - MS weekly data showed high hot - rolled coil inventory, and production cuts were being made to reduce inventory [45][46] 4.4 Production Profit - Last week, the hot - rolled coil spot profit was - 35 (+12) yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 197 (-55) yuan/ton. It is expected that after the Spring Festival, production will resume, and the main - contract profit will shrink [51] 5. Variety Spread Structure - The report presented data on spreads such as Shanghai cold - hot spread, Shanghai coil - rebar spread, Shanghai medium - plate hot - rolled coil spread, etc. over different time periods [53][54] 6. Variety Regional Difference - Data on regional price differences of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, cold - rolled coil, etc. were provided, including differences between cities like Hangzhou, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Tianjin [62][63][65] 7. Cold - rolled Coil and Medium - plate - Data on the supply, demand, and inventory of cold - rolled coil and medium - plate were presented, including seasonal data on total inventory, production, and apparent consumption [68]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report Plastic - This week, the supply elasticity of price reduction has not been realized yet. At the end of the year, the supply increases while the demand weakens, putting pressure on prices. The Q4 may gradually enter a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the price is under pressure [5]. Polypropylene - In the off - season, the price is under pressure, and there may be marginal changes in PDH on the supply side. The Q4 may gradually enter a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the market supply - demand pattern is still not optimistic [92]. Summary by Directory Plastic Part Price & Spread - The basis has not strengthened significantly. The low price in North China has continued to decline, and East and South China have made up for the decline. The 5 - 9 month spread fluctuates around - 50, and the warehouse receipts remain high at a stable level. The import window is compressed, and the non - standard import profit is at a relatively high level within the year [5]. Supply - The total effective capacity growth rate is 16%. The domestic production volume growth rate is 18% in the first half of the year. The current maintenance scale in December has declined. It is expected that the supply will remain in a loose state. The import volume may still be high at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026 [5]. Demand & Inventory - The agricultural film start - up rate continues to decline, and the packaging film festival effect has gradually subsided. The downstream raw material inventory is maintained at a low level, and the demand for raw materials is expected to decrease. The inventory removal of the PE as a whole is not smooth, the upstream factory inventory has accumulated slightly, and the social inventory has decreased slightly [5]. Polypropylene Part Price & Spread - The basis fluctuates weakly, and the month spread strengthens slightly. The overseas price of PP rebounds and then falls back, and the import window tends to close [94]. Supply - The total effective capacity growth rate is 12.7%, and the estimated annual output growth rate is 16.7%. The planned maintenance volume at the end of the year declines, and the supply center is high. The short - term PP import volume is limited, and the export volume is expected to maintain the basic level in the short term [92]. Demand & Inventory - The downstream start - up rate is temporarily stable, but the orders of plastic weaving, pipes and other industries have weakened seasonally. The downstream is mainly digesting inventory, and the raw material procurement is sluggish. The inventory removal of PP as a whole is not smooth, and the inventory is higher than the same period of last year [93].

Report Information - Report Title: Cast Aluminum Alloy Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: December 21, 2025 - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, Non-ferrous and Precious Metals Group - Analysts: Wang Rong (Chief Analyst/Assistant Director), Wang Zongyuan (Contact Person) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, aluminum prices first declined and then rose, with the overall center of gravity shifting upward. Cast aluminum alloy prices fluctuated at a high level, reaching a high of 21,395 on the night of Friday. On the supply side, as the weather turns cold in winter, the output of social scrap aluminum gradually decreases, the market circulation of goods tightens, and holders increase their price support and reluctance to sell. Near the Spring Festival stockpiling, some enterprises face difficulties in replenishing stocks, and their in-plant raw material inventories are low. On the demand side, the demand in the automotive industry has weakened marginally. Constrained by insufficient orders, the operating rate of downstream die-casting factories has declined, and they mainly purchase on a just-in-time basis. Overall, the shortage pattern of scrap aluminum supply remains unchanged, and there are still constraints on imports and recycling. The rigid cost provides some support for prices, but the lack of demand weakens the upward momentum of prices. In the short term, prices may fluctuate at a high level. [6] - As of December 19, the combined inventory of aluminum alloy ingot factories and social warehouses decreased by 0.06 million tons from the previous week to 13.02 million tons, and the visible inventory remained at a high level. From December 1 - 14, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 764,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 24% and a month-on-month increase of 2%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 22.247 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 5%. Due to the continued boom in the automotive market in December last year, the automotive market showed weak performance this December under the high base effect, and the demand is gradually under pressure. At the same time, in some regions, the national subsidy funds are relatively scarce, which has created a large overdraft effect, and some consumers face the absence of subsidy policies. The market still has good expectations for automobile consumption next year. The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that next year, the implementation of the "two new" policies will be optimized, which means that the national subsidy policy for consumer goods will continue to be promoted. [6] Summary by Directory Trading End - Volume and Price - Relevant data on trading volume, open interest, and capital precipitation are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [9] Trading End - Arbitrage - **Inter - period Positive Spread Cost Calculation**: For the cast aluminum alloy inter - period spread cost calculation (within the warehouse receipt system), taking the AD2601 and AD2602 contracts as an example, the fixed cost is 9.42 yuan/ton, the floating cost is 90.43 yuan/ton, and the total cost is 100 yuan/ton [12] - **Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation**: The market's actual spot quotation fluctuates around the Baotai price. Taking the Baotai Group's latest quotation of 21,200 yuan/ton as a reference, after calculating various costs such as storage fees, capital costs, and registration costs, the warehouse receipt cost is 22,138.8 yuan/ton [13][14] Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - **Scrap Aluminum Production and Inventory**: Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is continuously decreasing. Scrap aluminum imports are also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate [16][20] - **Scrap Aluminum Price**: The prices of waste automobile wheels, waste motorcycle wheels, and broken aluminum in different regions are presented, and the price trends of Shanghai machine - made aluminum and broken aluminum in Foshan are shown [24][26] Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The price of Baotai ADC12 has increased, and the spread between recycled and primary aluminum has strengthened. The regional spread of cast aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns [30][35] - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy remained flat, while the monthly operating rate declined. The monthly production of recycled aluminum alloy and its regional proportion are presented [40][44][45] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and it is currently estimated to be in a loss state. The cost structure and profit trends of ADC12 are shown [46][47][50] - **Inventory and Import**: The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy has increased slightly, while the social inventory has decreased. The import window for cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [51][56] - **Recycled Aluminum Rod**: The production, inventory, and their regional proportions of recycled aluminum rods are presented [59][60][61][62] Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Terminal consumption: Fuel - powered vehicles are in the year - end sales rush stage, which is transmitted to die - casting consumption. Data on the production of new energy vehicles, fuel - powered vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances are presented, as well as the year - on - year change in PPI of auto parts manufacturing and the inventory warning index of automobiles [65][66]