二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 21 日 工业硅：逢高布空思路，关注供应扰动 多晶硅：预计盘面宽幅震荡态势 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 报告导读： 本周价格走势：工业硅盘面先跌后涨，现货价格持平；多晶硅盘面重心抬升，现货报价稳定 工业硅运行情况：本周工业硅盘面先跌后涨，整体重心上移，部分资金炒作工业硅工厂联合挺价，叠加 焦煤期货上涨等因素，周五收于 8690 元/吨。现货市场价格持稳，SMM 统计新疆 99 硅报价 8750 元/吨（环 比不变），内蒙 99 硅报价 8850 元/吨(环比不变)。 多晶硅运行情况：本周多晶硅盘面宽幅震荡，重心抬升，波动放大，周五盘面收于 60245 元/吨。多晶 硅现货市场来看，上游报价坚挺，下游小幅补库。 供需基本面：工业硅本周行业库存去库；多晶硅上游库存高位 工业硅供给端，周度行业库存小幅去库。据咨询商统计，本周甘肃及内蒙地区开工减少，整体周产小幅 环减。具体而言，西南地区进入枯水期，按照枯水期电价折算西南枯水期成本在 10000-10500 元/吨，枯 水期当地开工持续性回落。月度来看，12 月份 ...

五 2025 年 12 月 21 日 二 〇 二 国债期货周报 年 度 唐立 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 Tangli2@gtht.com 虞堪 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 yukan@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 报告导读： 摘要： 本周国债期货市场超长端有所修复。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 1. 周度聚焦与行情跟踪 本周国债期货市场呈现日间温和修复，日内波动加剧的态势，资金面结构性宽松支撑短端表现，长端 修复走势优于短端。央行 18 日在公开市场开展 883 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，利率维持在 1.40%，并同步进 行 1000 亿元 14 天期逆回购操作。年末前后央行开展 14 天期逆回购，可以有效平滑跨年资金面波动，引导 市场流动性处于较为稳定状态。据新华社消息，中央财办有关负责同志在中央经济工作会议后第一时间接 受中央主要媒体采访时表示，扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务。 前期 30-10 较为陡峭，推荐阶段性做平该段曲线，即看好短期超长端修复。 中期因央行货币政策相对克制、通胀预期转变、中长期资金入市导向、十五五政策预期 ...

锡周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锡：进口显著增加，价格受到压力 强弱分析：偏弱 价格区间：320000-34000元/吨 ◆ 本周锡价向上突破，上破34万区间，周度涨幅超过3%。 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 吨 锡矿进口_缅甸 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 01-03 01-14 01-26 02-10 02-24 03-07 03-18 03-29 04-11 04-22 05-06 05-17 05-28 06-10 06-21 07-04 07-15 07-26 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-09 09-20 10-08 10-20 10-31 11-11 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc is relatively balanced around the 23,000 level, waiting for new drivers, with a neutral strength analysis [2]. - Domestic supply is decreasing, and the consumption situation is weak. The overseas squeeze - out market is over, and short - term prices may enter a consolidation phase. In the long run, supply - side contradictions will continue to dominate prices [5]. - The zinc mine expansion cycle is coming to an end. Next year, the increase in global zinc mines is limited, and zinc prices have the potential to rise. Pay attention to opportunities for buying on dips [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review and Data Changes - **Price and Spread** - The closing price of SHFE zinc last week was 23,065, with a weekly decline of 2.29%. The closing price of the night session was 23,070, with a night - session increase of 0.02%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 3,078, with a weekly decline of 1.94% [6]. - The LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread changed from a backwardation to a contango structure, and the SHFE zinc contango structure flattened [17][19]. - **Inventory** - SHFE zinc warehouse receipts decreased by 6,104 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 4,560 tons; the social inventory decreased by 6,000 tons; the LME zinc inventory increased by 37,975 tons; the bonded - area inventory remained unchanged [6]. - Globally, the total visible zinc inventory increased significantly [35]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest** - The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract decreased by 125,408 lots, and the open interest decreased by 44,565 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 decreased by 9,880 lots, and the open interest increased by 3,962 lots [6]. - The domestic open interest is at the median of the same period in history [36]. 2. Industry Chain Analysis - **Inventory** - Zinc ore and smelter finished - product inventories have declined from high levels, and visible zinc ingot inventories have decreased [8]. - **Profit** - Zinc mine profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, while smelting profits are at historical lows [10]. - Mining enterprise profits have rebounded and are at a medium - to - high level in history; smelting profits have declined and are at a historical low; galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a medium - to - low level in the same period [11]. - **Operating Rate** - The zinc concentrate and refined zinc operating rates have declined and are at the median of the same period in history. Downstream galvanizing, zinc die - casting, and zinc oxide operating rates have declined and are at a medium - to - low level in history [13]. 3. Supply - side Analysis - **Zinc Concentrate** - Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, while domestic zinc mine production has decreased [39]. - Imported ore processing fees have decreased, and domestic ore processing fees have decreased significantly [39]. - The arrival volume of zinc ore at ports is at a low level, and smelter raw - material inventories have decreased [40]. - **Refined Zinc** - Smelting output has declined and is at a high level in the same period in history. Smelter finished - product inventories have decreased and are at a high level in the same period in history [46][47]. - Zinc alloy production is at a high level [47]. 4. Demand - side Analysis - **Refined Zinc Consumption** - The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [52]. - **Downstream Industry** - The monthly operating rate of downstream industries has rebounded slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period in history [55]. - The raw - material and finished - product inventories of downstream industries show different trends [58][61]. - **Terminal Demand** - The real - estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural increments [71]. 5. Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon emissions, and electricity show different trends, which affect the profitability of overseas zinc smelters [74][75][77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Overseas raw material prices are high, supporting rubber prices, but China's natural rubber inventory continues to accumulate significantly, with notable inventory pressure and low market acceptance of high - priced rubber. Under the game between long and short positions, rubber prices are expected to show a fluctuating consolidation trend in the short term [106][107]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - China's tire exports from January to November 2025 increased year - on - year, with the export volume of rubber tires reaching 8.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, and the export amount reaching 153.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In November, the output of rubber tire casings decreased year - on - year [5]. - From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of tires in the United States increased year - on - year, but the import volume from China decreased [6]. - The Rubber Authority of Thailand (RAOT) approved an additional budget of 2.28 billion Thai baht to promote measures to stabilize rubber prices, aiming to digest 250,000 tons of rubber annually [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, domestic and foreign rubber prices fluctuated slightly, with RU slightly falling and NR, SGX TSR20, and JPX RSS3 slightly rising. As of December 19, 2025, the closing price of RU2605 was 15,190 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.26%; the closing price of NR2605 was 12,390 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.36% [9][11]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - Weather conditions: Thailand's southern region has entered the rainy season with recent decreasing rainfall, and the rainy season in the northeast has ended with relatively low temperatures. The rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan in China have basically ended [37][39]. - Raw material prices: The suspension of tapping in domestic production areas is accelerating, and overseas raw material prices are high due to the continuous tense geopolitical situation between Thailand and Cambodia [41]. - Export situation: In October 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, mainly contributed by standard rubber and mixed rubber. Exports to China also increased significantly. Indonesia's total natural rubber exports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, while exports to China increased month - on - month. Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, and exports to China rebounded seasonally. Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports decreased month - on - month in November, and exports to China decreased significantly [61][64][67][73][75]. - Import situation: In November 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed rubber and composite rubber) were 6.436 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.76% [79]. 3.3.2 Demand - Tire production and sales: This week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased slightly, and tire inventory continued to accumulate. In November, tire exports increased slightly month - on - month, and heavy - truck sales increased slightly month - on - month in October. Passenger car sales continued to grow in November, but the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates continued to decline. In November, the freight turnover of road transportation rebounded month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased month - on - month [85][90][91]. 3.3.3 Inventory - Spot inventory: As of December 12, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.1529 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.63%. The inventory of dark - colored rubber was 748,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.50%, and the inventory of light - colored rubber was 404,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.86% [101]. - Futures inventory: As of December 19, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 87,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 52.94%. The futures inventory of 20 - number rubber on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 59,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02% [103]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - Market outlook: The natural rubber market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. High overseas raw material prices support rubber prices, but China's large - scale inventory accumulation puts pressure on the market, resulting in low acceptance of high - priced rubber [106][107]. - Valuation: On Friday, the price difference between the main contracts of RU and NR was 2,830 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 35 yuan/ton; the price difference between mixed standard rubber and the main contract of RU was - 720 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/ton [108]. - Supply strategy: For the single - side strategy of RU, it is recommended to wait and see; for the inter - period strategy, a long - short spread between January and May contracts is suggested as the peak production period may put more pressure on the May contract; for the cross - variety strategy, it is recommended to observe [109].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 石油沥青周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 期货从业资格号：F3082452 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 价格&价差 02 基本面数据 03 市场回顾 期现 价差结构 需求 供应 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 本周沥青观点：委油憋库贴水降，沥青裂解难增长 | 供应 | 本周（20251211-1217），中国92家沥青炼厂产能利用率为29.2%，环比下降0.7%，国内重交沥青77家企业产能利用率为27.6%，环比下降 0.2%。分析原因主要是本周期虽然华东以及华南地区个别主营炼厂复产以及提产沥青，但山东个别炼厂间歇转产渣油，导致产能利用率下降。 | | --- | --- | | 需求 | 本周(20251210-1216)，国内沥青54家企业厂家样本出货量共35.0万吨，环比减少8.9%。分地区来看，华东以及山东减少明显，山东 ...

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：宏观水温舒适；白银：稳步爬升 强弱分析：黄金中性、白银偏强 价格区间：960-1000元/克、14500-16000元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回落0.22%，伦敦银回升1.98%。金银比从前周的66.6回落至65.9，10年期TIPS回升至1.92%，10年期名义利率回落至 4.16%（2年期3.48%），美元指数录得98.7。 ◆ 本周贵金属价格继续上行，周五再度创出新高，COMEX白银突破67美元/盎司，沪银触及15769元/千克，COMEX黄金则是再摸 4409美元/盎司高位。宏观层面本周进一步释放压力，非农数据失业率出现明显回升，同时CPI显著回落，使得利率进 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength in copper prices is gradually emerging. The lack of resonance logic may limit the upside space for prices. However, the long - term supply shortage logic still holds, and the long - term consumption recovery expectation is strong. Short - term adjustments in copper prices will provide good entry points for long - term buying. [7] - It is recommended to adopt the main trading mode of buying on dips. In terms of spread trading, the spread between COMEX and LME is weakening, the positive arbitrage opportunity between LME and SHFE is weakening, but the domestic Contango structure is obvious, and risk - free arbitrage opportunities can be concerned. At the same time, there is a profit margin for current spot exports, and internal - external reverse arbitrage opportunities can be concerned. [7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - **Volatility**: SHFE and INE copper volatility expanded, while LME and COMEX copper volatility declined. LME copper price volatility was around 13%, down from the previous week; SHFE copper volatility was around 16%, with a relatively large increase from the previous week. [11] - **Term Spread**: The term structure of SHFE copper weakened, and the LME copper spot premium declined. The SHFE 01 - 02 spread on December 19 was - 180 yuan/ton, weaker than - 90 yuan/ton on December 12; the LME 0 - 3 premium on December 19 was 4.73 US dollars/ton, lower than the premium of 20.69 US dollars/ton on December 12; the COMEX near - end C structure narrowed. [17] - **Position**: LME, SHFE, and INE copper positions decreased. Among them, SHFE copper positions decreased by 15,000 lots to 631,900 lots. [19] - **Fund and Industry Position**: LME commercial short net positions decreased from 83,100 lots on December 5 to 78,600 lots on December 12; CFTC non - commercial long net positions increased from 53,400 lots on December 2 to 62,500 lots on December 9. [25] - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The domestic copper spot premium and discount weakened, and the Yangshan Port copper premium rebounded. The domestic copper spot discount dropped from a discount of 20 yuan/ton on December 12 to a discount of 160 yuan/ton on December 19; the Yangshan Port copper premium rose from 41 US dollars/ton on December 12 to 43 US dollars/ton on December 19. [30] - **Inventory**: The global total copper inventory increased from 803,400 tons on December 11 to 816,600 tons on December 18. The domestic social inventory increased from 163,000 tons on December 11 to 165,800 tons on December 18; the bonded area inventory increased from 75,500 tons on December 11 to 76,600 tons on December 18; the COMEX inventory increased from 450,600 short tons on December 12 to 466,200 short tons on December 19; the LME copper inventory decreased from 165,900 tons on December 12 to 160,400 tons on December 19. [31][36] - **Position - Inventory Ratio**: The LME copper position - inventory ratio fluctuated, and the SHFE copper position - inventory ratio was at a low level in the same period of history, indicating a lack of driving logic in overseas spot markets. [37] 3.2 Supply End - **Copper Concentrate**: Copper concentrate imports increased year - on - year, and processing fees remained weak. In November 2025, China's imports of copper ore and its concentrates were 2.5262 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.05% and a year - on - year increase of 12.55%. The port inventory of copper concentrates increased from 664,000 tons on December 12 to 680,000 tons on December 19. The processing fees of copper concentrates remained weak, and the smelting loss expanded from 2,084 yuan/ton on December 12 to 2,110 yuan/ton on December 19. [42] - **Recycled Copper**: Recycled copper imports increased year - on - year, and domestic production increased significantly year - on - year. In November, recycled copper imports were 208,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.94%; in September, domestic recycled copper production was 97,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.85%. The refined - scrap spread of recycled copper expanded and was higher than the break - even point; the import loss of recycled copper narrowed. [43][48] - **Blister Copper**: Blister copper imports increased month - on - month, and processing fees rebounded. In October, blister copper imports were 55,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.18%. In November, blister copper processing fees rebounded, with the southern processing fee at 1,250 yuan/ton and the import processing fee at 95 US dollars/ton. [52] - **Refined Copper**: Refined copper production increased year - on - year, imports decreased, and the import loss of copper spot expanded. In November, the production of refined copper was 1.1031 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.75%, and the cumulative production from January to November was 12.2545 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.76%. It is expected that the production in December will be 1.0955 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.69%. In November, refined copper imports were 271,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.67%. In November, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 430,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.87%. The import loss of copper spot expanded from a loss of 1,260.23 yuan/ton on December 12 to a loss of 1,304.76 yuan/ton on December 19. [54] 3.3 Demand End - **Operating Rate**: In November, the operating rates of copper product enterprises rebounded month - on - month, but were at a low level in the same period of history. The operating rates of copper tubes and copper plates, strips, and foils rebounded, but were at a low level in the same period of history. In the week of December 18, the operating rate of wire and cable decreased marginally. [59] - **Profit**: The processing fees of copper rods were at a low level in the same period of history, and the processing fees of copper tubes rebounded. As of December 19, the processing fees of copper rods for the power industry in East China were 275 yuan/ton, lower than 385 yuan/ton on December 12. On December 19, the 10 - day moving average of the processing fees of R410A - dedicated copper tubes was 5,205 yuan/ton, higher than 5,107 yuan/ton on December 12. The processing fees of copper plates and strips and lithium - ion copper foils remained stable at a low level. [64] - **Raw Material Inventory**: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remained at a low level. In November, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a slightly lower - than - neutral level in the same period of history, and the raw material inventory of copper tubes was at a low level in the same period of history; the weekly raw material inventory of wire and cable remained at a low level. [65] - **Finished Product Inventory**: The finished product inventory of copper rods rebounded, and the finished product inventory of wire and cable decreased slightly. In November, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a high level in the same period of history, and the finished product inventory of copper tubes was at a relatively low level in the same period of history; the weekly finished product inventory of wire and cable decreased slightly. [68] 3.4 Consumption End - **Apparent Consumption**: The domestic actual copper consumption performed well. From January to October, the cumulative consumption was 13.2983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.36%; from January to October, the apparent consumption was 13.4169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.00%. Power grid investment, home appliances, and new energy industries were important supports for copper consumption. The growth rate of power grid investment slowed down. From January to October, the cumulative power grid investment was 482.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, but it was at a relatively high level in history. [74] - **Air - Conditioner and New Energy Vehicle Production**: In October, the domestic air - conditioner production was 10.1326 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 27.92%; in October, the domestic new energy vehicle production was 1.88 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20.05%. [76]

国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年12月21日 铅产业链周度报告 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：16800-17200元/吨 铅：供需双弱，价格震荡 五地铅总库存减少，绝对库存处于历史同期低位 0 5 10 15 20 25 01-02 01-12 01-22 02-05 02-19 03-03 03-14 03-26 04-08 04-19 05-05 05-16 05-28 06-09 06-20 07-02 07-14 07-25 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-10 09-23 10-09 10-21 11-01 11-13 11-25 12-06 12-18 12-30 万吨 五地总库存 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 国内铅现货升水扩大 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 5 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周尿素观点：短期震荡，中期有支撑 供应 • 本周(20251211-1217)，中国尿素生产企业产量：136.59万吨，较上期跌1.95万吨，环比跌1.41%。周期内新增4家企业装置停车，暂无停车装置恢复生产，同时延续上周 期的装置变化，本周产量小幅减少。下周，中国尿素周产量预计137万吨附近，较本期小幅波动。下个周期暂无企业装置计划停车，2-4家停车企业装置可能恢复生产， 考虑到短时的企业故障发生，延续上周期的变化，预期下个周期产量可能略增。（隆众资讯） • 内需方面，11月为中游补库高峰期，今年粮食价格反弹，东北地区玉米丰收，因此东北地区基层现金流暖于2024年同期。现金流较为充裕背景下，整体贸易商及复 合肥厂连续补库，带动内蒙地区工厂订单数量增加，库存下降。但伴随工厂价格上涨以及货物的顺利外发，中游补 ...