1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the industrial silicon market is experiencing increased fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the registration of warehouse receipts. The short - term fluctuations in the polysilicon market have significantly amplified [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: The closing price of Si2511 was 8,470 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 25 yuan compared to T - 1, 45 yuan compared to T - 5, and 30 yuan compared to T - 22. Its trading volume was 345,613 lots, a decrease of 14,243 lots compared to T - 1, 104,677 lots compared to T - 5, and an increase of 120,436 lots compared to T - 22. The open interest was 281,480 lots, a decrease of 3,969 lots compared to T - 1, 359 lots compared to T - 5, and an increase of 87,140 lots compared to T - 22. For PS2511, the closing price was 51,875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 410 yuan compared to T - 1 and an increase of 890 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume was 530,778 lots, a decrease of 5,320 lots compared to T - 1 and an increase of 264,958 lots compared to T - 5. The open interest was 145,855 lots, a decrease of 4,554 lots compared to T - 1 and an increase of 8,377 lots compared to T - 5 [1] - **Basis Data**: The spot premium or discount of industrial silicon (against East China Si5530) was +605 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton compared to T - 1, - 280 yuan/ton compared to T - 5, and - 595 yuan/ton compared to T - 22. The spot premium or discount of polysilicon (against N - type recycled material) was - 875 yuan/ton, 2,410 yuan/ton compared to T - 1, 1,110 yuan/ton compared to T - 5, and 2,455 yuan/ton compared to T - 22 [1] - **Price Data**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8500 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan compared to T - 1, a decrease of 50 yuan compared to T - 5, and a decrease of 600 yuan compared to T - 22. The price of Yunnan Si4210 was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged compared to T - 1, a decrease of 100 yuan compared to T - 5, and a decrease of 650 yuan compared to T - 22. The price of polysilicon - N - type recycled material was 51500 yuan/ton, an increase of 2500 yuan compared to T - 1, 2500 yuan compared to T - 5, and 4500 yuan compared to T - 22 [1] - **Profit Data**: The profit of silicon plants (Xinjiang new - standard 553) was - 2831 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan compared to T - 1, 410 yuan compared to T - 5, and 540 yuan compared to T - 22. The profit of polysilicon enterprises was - 14.4 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.6 yuan compared to T - 1, 1.7 yuan compared to T - 5, and 2.9 yuan compared to T - 22 [1] - **Inventory Data**: The social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 54.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.2 million tons compared to T - 5 and an increase of 0.1 million tons compared to T - 22. The enterprise inventory of industrial silicon (sample enterprises) was 17.4 million tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons compared to T - 5 and a decrease of 0.4 million tons compared to T - 22. The polysilicon factory inventory was 21.3 million tons, a decrease of 3.6 million tons compared to T - 5 and a decrease of 1.6 million tons compared to T - 22 [1] - **Raw Material Cost Data**: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 340 yuan/ton, unchanged compared to T - 5 and T - 22. The price of washed coking coal in Xinjiang was 1300 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan compared to T - 5 and T - 22 [1] 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - The photovoltaic module procurement project of the 2GW composite photovoltaic base project of China Aneng First Bureau's Guoneng Ling - Shao DC - supporting Lingwu has changed. The tender scale has been reduced from 2GW to 200MW, and the tender model has been changed. The original tender had a tax - included tender control price of 132 million yuan, with a tax rate of 13%, equivalent to 0.66 yuan per watt, while the revised tender has no tender control price [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and the trend intensity of polysilicon is 0. The range of trend intensity values is in the interval [- 2,2], with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of today's futures main contracts. Index futures are expected to oscillate strongly, gold futures will oscillate with an upward bias, and silver, copper, rebar, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, and crude oil futures are likely to oscillate strongly [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Index Futures**: IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 are expected to oscillate strongly on September 3, with specific resistance and support levels provided. For the whole month of September 2025, these contracts are also expected to oscillate strongly with corresponding resistance and support levels [2][17][18]. - **Treasury Futures**: The 10 - year Treasury futures main contract T2512 and the 30 - year Treasury futures main contract TL2512 are likely to oscillate widely on September 3, with resistance and support levels given [2][37][41]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: The gold futures main contract AU2510 is expected to oscillate with an upward bias on September 3 and in September 2025, with resistance and support levels provided. The silver futures main contract AG2510 is likely to oscillate strongly on September 3 and in September 2025, and may hit a new high since listing [2][43][50]. - **Base Metals Futures**: Copper, aluminum, industrial silicon, and polycrystalline silicon futures main contracts are expected to have different trends on September 3 and in September 2025, including strong oscillation, oscillation consolidation, and wide - range oscillation, with corresponding resistance and support levels [3][53][58]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: Rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, crude oil, PTA, PVC, and methanol futures main contracts are likely to oscillate strongly on September 3, with resistance and support levels provided. The trends in September 2025 vary for different contracts [3][4][6]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures main contracts are expected to oscillate strongly on September 3, with resistance and support levels [6]. Macro News and Trading Tips - China and Russia strengthen cooperation in multiple fields, including signing over 20 bilateral cooperation documents and China implementing a visa - free policy for Russia. The central bank's MLF has a net investment of 300 billion yuan, PSL has a net withdrawal of 160.8 billion yuan, and the outright reverse repurchase has a net investment of 300 billion yuan. The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration introduce 4 tax - exemption measures to support the operation and management of state - owned equity and cash income transferred to enrich the social security fund [7]. - Some cities may face the possibility of merger or integration due to single industrial structure. Trump will appeal to the US Supreme Court regarding the global tariff case. The Bank of Japan's deputy governor believes that continued interest - rate hikes are appropriate. The US August ISM manufacturing index is slightly up but still below the boom - bust line, and the eurozone's August CPI rises year - on - year [8][9]. Commodity Futures - Related Information - On September 2, gold futures prices broke through upward, with London spot gold breaking through the $3,500 per ounce mark and COMEX gold futures hitting a new high. COMEX silver futures also rose. Geopolitical risks pushed up oil prices, and LME base metals showed mixed trends [9][10]. Stock Market Information - On September 2, the A - share market adjusted, with most indexes falling. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.45%, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.14%. A - share trading volume reached 2.91 trillion yuan. The number of new A - share accounts in August reached 2.6503 million, a significant increase compared to the same period last year. As of September 1, the margin trading balance in the A - share market exceeded the historical peak in 2015 [13][14]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.47% on September 2, and the US and European stock markets also closed down. Southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$9.281 billion [16][17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations due to the repeated macro - expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are likely to have an oscillatory correction because of the rapid inventory accumulation [2][7][8]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon are predicted to have wide - range fluctuations [2][12]. - Coke and coking coal are expected to show wide - range fluctuations [2][15]. - Logs are likely to have repeated oscillations [2][17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the futures contract 12601 was 771.5 yuan/ton, up 5.5 yuan or 0.72%. The positions decreased by 948 hands. Among the spot prices, imported ore prices generally increased, while domestic ore prices remained stable. The basis and spreads also had certain changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 1 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3047 yuan/ton and 3310 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 0.49% and 0.48%. The trading volumes, positions and their changes, spot prices, basis and spreads all had corresponding data [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In July 2025, China's steel exports were 983.6 million tons, up 1.6% from the previous month, and the export average price was 702.2 US dollars/ton, up 2.2%. From January to July, the cumulative steel exports were 6798.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.0%, and the export average price was 699.7 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. According to the weekly data on August 28, the production, inventory and apparent demand of rebar and hot - rolled coil had different changes. In mid - August 2025, the production and inventory data of key steel enterprises also changed [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0 [10]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, positions of futures contracts, and spot prices, basis and spreads of silicon iron and manganese silicon all had specific data [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 2, the prices of silicon iron 72 in different regions and the procurement prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon by some steel mills were reported [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0 [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, positions of futures contracts, and spot prices, basis and spreads of coke and coking coal all had corresponding data [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 1 [15]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, positions of different futures contracts, and spot prices, basis and spreads of logs all had specific data, and the price changes of different types of logs in different regions were also reported [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0 [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report On September 2, the closing prices of the four major stock index futures contracts showed mixed trends, with IF down 0.72%, IH up 0.35%, IC down 1.8%, and IM down 1.85%. The total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. The total positions of all contracts also increased. The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1 [1][2][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On September 2, the closing price of CSI 300 was 4490.45, down 0.74%; IF2509 was 4481.2, down 0.72%. The closing price of SSE 50 was 2992.88, up 0.39%; IH2509 was 2992.8, up 0.35%. The closing price of CSI 500 was 6961.69, down 2.09%; IC2509 was 6896.2, down 1.80%. The closing price of CSI 1000 was 7313.88, down 2.50%; IM2509 was 7251.4, down 1.85% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position Changes**: On the trading day, the total trading volume of IF increased by 51,069 lots, IH by 26,017 lots, IC by 46,175 lots, and IM by 85,941 lots. The total positions of IF increased by 21,717 lots, IH by 12,783 lots, IC by 18,794 lots, and IM by 26,043 lots [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of IF2509 was -9.25, IH2509 was -0.08, IC2509 was -65.49, and IM2509 was -62.48 [1]. - **Top 20 Member Position Changes**: The top 20 members' long - position and short - position changes varied among different contracts. For example, in IF2509, the long - position increased by 8,797 lots and the short - position by 7,564 lots [5]. 3.2. Trend Strength The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend strength ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. 3.3. Important Drivers - **Overseas Market**: The Nasdaq fell 1.7%, with chip stocks leading the decline. The yields of long - term bonds soared, and the price of gold broke through the $3,500 mark. The three major US stock indexes opened lower, with the Dow down 0.9%, the S&P 500 down 1.25%, and the Nasdaq down 1.7%. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in August continued to contract for the sixth consecutive month, but new orders improved and the price index declined again [6]. - **Domestic Market**: In August, the central bank's MLF had a net investment of 300 billion yuan, PSL had a net withdrawal of 160.8 billion yuan, and the outright reverse repurchase in the open market had a net investment of 300 billion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45% to 3,858.13 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.14%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.85%. The A - share trading volume was 2.91 trillion yuan, up from 2.78 trillion yuan the previous day. Most sectors performed poorly, with only a few sectors such as banks, reducers, and gold showing strength [7].

2025年09月03日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 3 日 镍：基本面逻辑窄幅震荡，消息面刺激情绪 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：基本面逻辑窄幅震荡，消息面刺激情绪 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：钢价窄幅震荡运行 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：基差小幅修复，偏弱震荡延续 | 4 | | 工业硅：情绪扰动增多，关注仓单注册情况 | 6 | | 多晶硅：短期波动明显放大 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 不锈钢：钢价窄幅震荡运行 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 122,530 | -920 | 2,160 | 2,200 | 2,760 | 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides short - term trend forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products, based on their fundamentals, market sentiment, and macro - industry news [2][5]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to break through new highs, with a trend strength of 2 [2][7][9]. - **Silver**: Likely to reach the previous high, with a trend strength of 2 [2][7][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Market sentiment has improved, leading to price increases, trend strength is 1 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Expected to trade in a range, trend strength is 0 [2][14][15]. - **Lead**: Decreasing inventory supports prices, trend strength is 0 [2][17]. - **Tin**: Expected to trade in a range, trend strength is 1 [2][20][23]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to be slightly bullish in a volatile market, trend strength is 0 [2][24][26]. - **Alumina**: Expected to trade in a range, trend strength is 0 [2][24][26]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Attention should be paid to policy implementation progress, trend strength is 0 [24][26]. - **Nickel**: Narrow - range fluctuations based on fundamentals, with sentiment influenced by news, trend strength is 0 [2][28][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, trend strength is 0 [2][28][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The basis is slightly repaired, and the weak - side oscillation continues, trend strength is 0 [2][34][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is more volatile, and attention should be paid to the registration of warehouse receipts, trend strength is 0 [2][37][39]. - **Polysilicon**: Short - term fluctuations are significantly amplified, trend strength is 0 [2][37][39]. - **Iron Ore**: Macroeconomic expectations are volatile, leading to wide - range fluctuations, trend strength is 1 [2][40]. - **Rebar**: Excessive inventory accumulation leads to price oscillations and corrections, trend strength is 0 [2][42][44]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Excessive inventory accumulation leads to price oscillations and corrections, trend strength is 0 [2][42][44]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: Expected to trade in a wide range, trend strength is 0 [2][46][48]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: Expected to trade in a wide range, trend strength is 0 [2][46][48]. - **Coke**: Expected to trade in a wide range, trend strength is 1 [2][49]. - **Coking Coal**: Expected to trade in a wide range, trend strength is 1 [2][49]. - **Log**: Prices are expected to fluctuate repeatedly, trend strength is 0 [2][51][54]. - **Para - Xylene**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and a long - position spread strategy is recommended [2][55]. - **PTA**: A long - position spread strategy for monthly differences, and partial profit - taking for the long - PTA and short - MEG strategy [2][55]. - **MEG**: Partial profit - taking for the long - PTA and short - MEG strategy [2][55]. Others - **LPG**: Macroeconomic risks are increasing, and crude oil costs are rising [5]. - **Propylene**: Spot prices are still supported, but attention should be paid to the risk of price decline [5]. - **PVC**: The downward trend persists, with pressure on prices [5]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices declined at night, and it may continue to be weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term [5]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Volatility has increased, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market has risen significantly [5]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Expected to trade in a wide range [5]. - **Short - Fiber**: Expected to consolidate in a range, and a long - PF and short - PR strategy is recommended [5]. - **Bottle Chip**: Expected to consolidate in a range [5]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Trading at a low level with limited upward momentum [5]. - **Pure Benzene**: Expected to trade with a weak - side oscillation [5]. - **Palm Oil**: Influenced by macro factors, prices are expected to rebound in a volatile market [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil is expected to narrow [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: The significant decline in the good - quality rate of US soybeans has a positive impact on prices [5]. - **Soybean No. 1**: Prices are expected to rebound and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the market sentiment of the soybean market [5]. - **Corn**: Prices are expected to trade in a range [5]. - **Sugar**: Conab has lowered the production forecast for Brazil [5]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new crops [5]. - **Egg**: There is strong near - end game - playing [5]. - **Live Pig**: Market expectations have weakened [5]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX: 11-01 positive spread, 1-5 negative spread. Long PX and short EB. Go long on dips before mid-September [7] - PTA: Bullish on the single-sided price with limited downside. Partially take profit on the long PTA and short MEG strategy [7] - MEG: Bearish on the single-sided price with neutral valuation. Reduce short positions. Hold the 1-5 negative spread [8] Core Viewpoints - In the last quarter of 2025, China's PTA factory capacity is expected to further increase, and the PX supply and demand will remain in a tight balance [5][7] - PTA producers are facing low profit margins, and inventory expansion may threaten the market again [5] - MEG has a clear pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand after October, but the price may have limited short-term downside below 4300 [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - **Futures**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 6834, 4756, 4339, 6440, and 490.4 respectively, with changes of -0.47%, -0.34%, -1.99%, -0.71%, and 1.43% [2] - **Spot**: The prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 846 dollars/ton, 4727 yuan/ton, 4453 yuan/ton, 600.5 dollars/ton, and 69.43 dollars/barrel respectively [2] - **Spot Processing Fees**: The PX-naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short fiber processing fee, bottle chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha-Dubai crude oil spread were 251.29, 188.78, 137.74, -51.65, and -6.01 respectively [2] Market Dynamics - PX price declined on the 2nd, and the market is concerned about PTA operations [2][3] - PTA producers are struggling with low profit margins, and inventory may decline weekly but expand again [5] - The arrivals at major ports for MEG from September 1st - 7th were about 9.8 tons [6] - The sales of polyester and direct-spun polyester staple fiber were weak on the 2nd [6][7] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 - PTA trend intensity: 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: Macroeconomic influence is prominent, with an oscillating rebound [2][4]. - Soybean oil: High - level oscillation, narrowing spread between soybean oil and palm oil [2][4]. - Soybean meal: The significant decline in the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans has a positive impact [2][12]. - Soybean No.1: Rebound and oscillation, pay attention to the atmosphere in the soybean market [2][12]. - Corn: Oscillating operation [2][15]. - Sugar: Conab has lowered Brazil's sugar production [2][19]. - Cotton: Pay attention to the listing of new crops [2][24]. - Eggs: Intense near - end game [2][30]. - Live pigs: Weakening expectations [2][32]. - Peanuts: Focus on the listing of new peanuts [2][38]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,380 yuan/ton with a 0.54% increase, and the night - session closing price was 9,482 yuan/ton with a 1.09% increase. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,422 yuan/ton with a 0.38% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8,394 yuan/ton with a - 0.33% change. The trading volume and positions of both decreased [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From August 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 4.18% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.29% month - on - month, and production decreased by 2.65% month - on - month. Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 31 increased by 15.37% (AmSpec) or 30.53% (SGS) compared to the same period last month. India's palm oil imports in August increased by 16% month - on - month, while soybean oil imports decreased by 28% [6][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both 0, indicating a neutral trend [11]. 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamental Tracking**: DCE Soybean No.1 2511's daily - session closing price was 3970 yuan/ton with a 0.23% increase, and the night - session closing price was 3968 yuan/ton with a - 0.03% change. DCE Soybean Meal 2601's daily - session closing price was 3050 yuan/ton with a - 0.33% change, and the night - session closing price was 3056 yuan/ton with no change. The trading volume of soybean meal increased, and the inventory also increased [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 2, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to China's lack of interest in US new - season soybeans and improved rainfall in the Midwest. As of August 31, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, lower than the expected 68% [12][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of soybean meal and soybean No.1 are both +1, indicating a slightly bullish trend [14]. 3.3 Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: The price of Jinzhou's corn for shipping was 2,260 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of C2509 was 2,265 yuan/ton with a 1.12% increase, and the night - session closing price was 2,255 yuan/ton with a - 0.44% change. The trading volume and positions of the corn market changed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The northern corn port collection price was 2200 - 2240 yuan/ton, and the price in Guangdong Shekou increased by 10 yuan/ton [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of corn is 0, indicating a neutral trend [18]. 3.4 Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: The raw sugar price was 16.14 cents/lb, down 0.2 cents. The mainstream spot price was 5930 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The futures main - contract price was 5599 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Conab lowered Brazil's sugar production in the 25/26 season to 4450 tons from the previous 4590 tons. India's monsoon precipitation was 6.7% higher than the long - period average on September 1. Brazil's sugar exports in July decreased by 5% year - on - year. China's sugar imports in July were 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000 tons [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of sugar is 0, indicating a neutral trend [22]. 3.5 Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of CF2601 was 14,045 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase, and the night - session closing price remained unchanged. The trading volume of CF2601 decreased, and the positions also decreased. The spot price of northern Xinjiang's 3128 machine - picked cotton increased by 20 yuan/ton [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The overall trading of cotton spot was sluggish, with only rigid demand from spinning mills. The ICE cotton futures fell due to concerns about the listing pressure of new US cotton crops and the strengthening of the US dollar [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [28]. 3.6 Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of Egg 2510 was 2,959 yuan/500 kg with a 0.37% increase, and the trading volume and positions decreased. The closing price of Egg 2601 was 3,384 yuan/500 kg with a 1.41% increase, and the trading volume and positions increased [30]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of eggs is 0, indicating a neutral trend [30]. 3.7 Live Pigs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The Henan spot price was 14,180 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The closing price of Live Pig 2511 was 13,595 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The trading volume and positions of some contracts changed [34]. - **Market Logic**: At the end of the month and the beginning of the next month, large - scale pig farms significantly reduced the supply, and the spot price rebounded as expected. In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms increased, and small - scale farmers were forced to hold back pigs. There is still supply pressure in September. Consider shorting the spread between November and January contracts. The purchase sentiment for piglets declined, and the price decline accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of slaughter in March - May. The support level for the LH2601 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 14,500 yuan/ton [36]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of live pigs is 0, indicating a neutral trend [35]. 3.8 Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 7,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of PK510 was 7,970 yuan/ton with a - 0.40% change, and the trading volume and positions decreased. The closing price of PK511 was 7,790 yuan/ton with a - 0.23% change, and the trading volume increased while the positions decreased [38]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, the price of Baisha general peanuts in Huangludian area was around 4.4 - 4.5 yuan/jin, and the price of large peanuts in Kaifeng area was around 4.0 - 4.15 yuan/jin. The weather cleared, the dryness of peanuts improved, the supply increased, but the inquiry and purchase decreased. New peanuts in Inner Mongolia are expected to be listed sporadically in about a week [39]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of peanuts is 0, indicating a neutral trend [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text 2. Core View of the Report - The container shipping index (European Line) is expected to experience wide - amplitude fluctuations. The market supply - demand imbalance will continue until the end of September, and the freight rate trend in October is uncertain, with a small decline or stability being possible. The report suggests considering rolling into 02 - 04 and 12 - 04 calendar spreads on dips [10][12][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Yesterday, the container shipping index (European Line) rose and then fell. The main 2510 contract closed at 1340.7 points, up 3.62%, with an increase of 1886 lots in positions. The second - main 2512 contract closed at 1733.5 points, up 6.88%, with an increase of 178 lots in positions [10] 3.2 Freight Rate - The SCFIS European route index was 1,773.60 points, down 10.9% week - on - week; the SCFIS US West route index was 1,013.90 points, down 2.6% week - on - week. The SCFI European route index was $1,481/TEU, down 11.2% bi - weekly; the SCFI US West route index was $1,923/FEU, up 17.0% bi - weekly [1] - In the second week of September, the European basic port freight rate was maintained in the range of $1900 - 2200/FEU, with the FAK average around $2050/FEU. Shipping companies have successively lowered their freight rates [11] 3.3 Capacity - In September, the number of blank sailings remained unchanged at 6, and there were no pending voyages, with the weekly average capacity reaching 296,000 TEU/week, a decline of about 6% compared to August, significantly lower than the same period in 2024. In October, there are 2 pending voyages and 11 blank sailings. Without considering the pending voyages, the current weekly average capacity is 282,000 TEU/week, a 4.6% decline month - on - month and a 7% increase year - on - year [12] 3.4 Supply - Demand Pattern - In late August, the overall market loading rate was around 95%. Shipping companies have relaxed restrictions on low - price contract bookings and large - volume special offers, which helps short - term shipments but intensifies price competition. The supply - demand imbalance in the market will continue until at least the end of September, and the freight rate trend in October is uncertain [12] 3.5 Historical Market Review - In 2024, the weighted European Line index stopped falling on September 10. In late September, there was a short - term speculation on the US West port strike, but the strike was resolved during the National Day holiday. After the holiday, the market first gave back the "strike" premium and then traded on the shipping company's price increase announcements [13] 3.6 Strategy - Consider rolling into 02 - 04 and 12 - 04 calendar spreads on dips [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend forecasts and fundamental analysis for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity has its own unique market conditions and trends [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to break through new highs. The Shanghai Gold 2510 contract closed at 800.56 yuan with a daily increase of 1.97%, and the night - session closing price was 801.58 yuan with a night - session increase of 0.86%. The trend strength is 2 [5][6]. - **Silver**: Expected to reach the previous high. The Shanghai Silver 2510 contract closed at 9775 yuan with a daily increase of 4.15%, and the night - session closing price was 9836 yuan with a night - session increase of 2.46%. The trend strength is 2 [5][6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The domestic spot has a high premium, and the price is firm. The Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 79,780 yuan with a daily increase of 0.47%. The trend strength is 1 [10]. - **Zinc**: In a range - bound oscillation. The Shanghai Zinc main contract closed at 22,175 yuan with a daily increase of 0.16%. The trend strength is 0 [13]. - **Lead**: The continuous decrease in inventory supports the price. The Shanghai Lead main contract closed at 16,855 yuan with a daily decrease of 0.15%. The trend strength is 0 [16]. - **Tin**: In a range - bound oscillation. The Shanghai Tin main contract closed at 273,240 yuan with a daily decrease of 1.94%. The trend strength is 1 [19][20]. - **Aluminum**: The fundamentals are weak. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 20,645 yuan. The trend strength is 0 [23]. - **Alumina**: In a low - level oscillation. The Shanghai Alumina main contract closed at 3008 yuan. The trend strength is - 1 [23]. - **Nickel**: Narrow - range oscillation based on fundamentals, with sentiment stimulated by news. The Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 123,450 yuan. The trend strength is 0 [27]. - **Stainless Steel**: The steel price oscillates in a narrow range. The Stainless Steel main contract closed at 12,950 yuan. The trend strength is 0 [27]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The partial suspension of the trade - in program continues the weak oscillation. The 2509 contract closed at 75,540 yuan. The trend strength is - 1 [33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is advisable to short at high prices. The Si2511 contract closed at 8,495 yuan. The trend strength is - 1 [36][37]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot quotation has increased, and the market volatility has expanded. The PS2511 contract closed at 52,285 yuan. The trend strength is 0 [37]. - **Iron Ore**: The macro - expectations are fluctuating, and it oscillates in a wide range. The 12601 contract closed at 766 yuan with a daily decrease of 2.73%. The trend strength is 0 [40]. - **Rebar**: The inventory has accumulated too quickly, and the steel price oscillates and corrects. The RB2510 contract closed at 3,039 yuan with a daily decrease of 2.19%. The trend strength is - 1 [42]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The inventory has accumulated too quickly, and the steel price oscillates and corrects. The HC2510 contract closed at 3,320 yuan with a daily decrease of 1.37%. The trend strength is - 1 [42]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The market sentiment is weak, and it oscillates weakly. The Silicon Ferrosilicon 2511 contract closed at 5532 yuan. The trend strength is 0 [45]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The market sentiment is weak, and it oscillates weakly. The Manganese Silicon 2511 contract closed at 5728 yuan. The trend strength is 0 [45]. - **Coke**: Oscillates in a wide range. The J2601 contract closed at 1594.5 yuan with a daily decrease of 3.0%. The trend strength is 0 [48]. - **Coking Coal**: Oscillates in a wide range. The JM2601 contract closed at 1118.5 yuan with a daily decrease of 2.8%. The trend strength is 0 [48]. - **Log**: Oscillates repeatedly. The 2509 contract closed at 776.5 yuan. The trend strength is - 1 [50][51]. - **Para - Xylene**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and a long - spread strategy is recommended. [54] - **PTA**: A long - calendar - spread strategy is recommended, and it is advisable to go long on PTA and short on MEG. [54] - **MEG**: It is advisable to go long on PTA and short on MEG. [54] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There is no new fundamental driver, and it is advisable to go long on dips. [4] - **Soybean Oil**: The trading of soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has paused, and it is in a correction phase. [4] - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillates in a rebound, waiting for further guidance from US soybeans. [4] - **Soybean No. 1**: Oscillates in a rebound. [4] - **Corn**: Oscillates. [4] - **Sugar**: Waiting for news guidance. [4] - **Cotton**: Maintains a moderately strong oscillating trend. [4] - **Egg**: There is strong near - term gaming. [4] - **Live Pig**: The price increases with shrinking volume, waiting for confirmation of sustainability. [4] - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the listing of new peanuts. [4]