国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周尿素观点：短期震荡，中期有支撑 供应 • 本周(20251211-1217)，中国尿素生产企业产量：136.59万吨，较上期跌1.95万吨，环比跌1.41%。周期内新增4家企业装置停车，暂无停车装置恢复生产，同时延续上周 期的装置变化，本周产量小幅减少。下周，中国尿素周产量预计137万吨附近，较本期小幅波动。下个周期暂无企业装置计划停车，2-4家停车企业装置可能恢复生产， 考虑到短时的企业故障发生，延续上周期的变化，预期下个周期产量可能略增。（隆众资讯） • 内需方面，11月为中游补库高峰期，今年粮食价格反弹，东北地区玉米丰收，因此东北地区基层现金流暖于2024年同期。现金流较为充裕背景下，整体贸易商及复 合肥厂连续补库，带动内蒙地区工厂订单数量增加，库存下降。但伴随工厂价格上涨以及货物的顺利外发，中游补 ...

BZ&Eb周报：维持底部区间震荡 国泰君安期货研究所·黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周纯苯、苯乙烯总结：底部区间震荡 • 纯苯国产：12月检修11万吨，1月检修维持11万吨（假设考虑浙石化检修带来4.5万吨减量），主要是中化泉州、丽东、浙石化等装置检修量大。 部分山东地炼在解决了配额问题之后仍会提高负荷，弥补部分产量损失。1月关注巴斯夫湛江新投产带来的纯苯增量。 • 纯苯进口：外盘压力仍然偏大，韩国纯苯抛压在11月-12月仍然偏大，进口居高难下。1月目前进口分歧较大，预计仍然在45万吨左右的高进口， 2月之后的进口待评估。 • 苯乙烯：12月检修8.5万吨，1月检修6.5万吨。12月之后装置开工逐步恢复，关注山东国恩化工装置开工带来的增量。 • 己内酰胺：CPL负反馈开始，工厂逐步降低负荷，12月预计4万吨检修,1月有6万吨检修，主要是福建永荣、天辰、华鲁恒升、旭阳沧州等。12月 关注恒逸钦州项目的投产，1月关注陕西阳煤的扩产。关注近期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot prices of mainstream delivery products remained stable this week. The prices of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu markets were flat compared to last week, with a regional price difference of 10 yuan/cubic meter. Other specifications also showed no price changes [4]. - The market saw a low - level rebound in the futures market, and the port inventory decreased. As of December 19, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 779 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.8% from last week [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - As of December 14, there were 20 ships departing from New Zealand in December, with 7 going to the Chinese mainland and 4 going to Taiwan, China and South Korea for unloading. It is expected that about 15 ships will arrive in December and 5 in January, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.54 million cubic meters in December [5][8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of December 12, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 22,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 14,800 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 3,000 cubic meters). - In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.2918 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 61,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 396,400 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 15,100 cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 173,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 51,200 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 125,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 1,800 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 1.9872 million cubic meters, a decrease of 125,500 cubic meters from the previous week [6][12]. 3.3 Market Trends - As of December 19, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 779 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.8% from last week. The monthly spread tended to narrow this week. The 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 4.5 yuan/cubic meter, the 03 - 07 monthly spread was - 12 yuan/cubic meter, and the 05 - 07 monthly spread was - 7.5 yuan/cubic meter [18]. 3.4 Other - As of the week of December 21, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2023.00 points, a decrease of 182 points (- 8.3%) from last week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 746 points, a decrease of 7.3% from last week. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1552.92 points, an increase of 3.1% from last week. - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index fluctuated weakly. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.042, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 0.9% to 1.737 [6][55].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 C3产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 日期：2025年12月21日 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENT 总结 01 LPG部分 02 丙烯部分 03 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 价格&价差 平衡表 供应 需求 下游库存 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 本周LPG观点：短期趋势偏弱 供应 国产方面，液化气总商品量51.8万吨，较上周环比增加0.8%；其中，民用气商品量21.8万吨（-0.3%），醚后商品量16.6万吨（-3.2%）；当前， 国内民用气商品量低位修复至24年同期水平，而醚后碳四商品量高位回落至24年同期水平。成本方面，油价低位震荡运行；国际市场供应方面， 美国丙烷库存环比回落，中东供应维持偏紧；需求方面，下游化工利润水平差，一季度国内PDH检修计划较多，买盘预期走弱，FEI、CP纸货周 内大幅下挫。国际船期到港量48 ...

国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 赵旭意 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020751 日期：2025年12月21日 GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：短期观望，待修复性 | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | 反弹后择机再空 | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 | | | | | | | 净持仓变化 | SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 2 观点综述 01 本周原油观点：短期观望，待 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is expected to remain strong in 2026 with potential for further increase, mainly due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts supporting the economy and the supply - demand gap. [2][200] - From a macro perspective, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will continue to be loose, leading to a marginal improvement in liquidity. [2] - From a micro perspective, there are structural changes in both the supply and demand of refined copper, and the supply - demand situation will shift from surplus in 2025 to a deficit in 2026. [2] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 Copper Price Trend Review 3.1.1 Copper Price Review: Increased Volatility and Higher Central Value - In 2025, the copper price first declined and then rose, reaching a new historical high. The LME 3 - month copper price increased by 15.37% from the beginning of the year to March 26, then fell by 11.05%, and finally rose by 31.13% as of December 12. The Shanghai Copper Index also increased, but its annual increase was lower than that of the LME copper. [6][7] 3.1.2 Driving Logic: Supply - Demand Imbalance and Structural Changes - The core driving logic of the price is the continuous fermentation of rigid supply constraints, demand structure changes, and macro - policy support, which attracted a large amount of capital to participate in copper futures trading. [10] - Supply - side tensions were continuously fermented and gradually spread to the smelting end. Multiple large - scale copper mines had unexpected production cuts and shutdowns, and the supply of scrap copper was weaker than expected. [12][17] - Demand shifted from the real - world logic to the expected logic. In the first half of the year, domestic copper consumption continued to rise, but in the second half, high copper prices began to suppress downstream demand, and the market started trading on consumption expectations. [18][20] - The global monetary policy turned to be loose, which was an important macro - support for copper prices. However, Trump's tariff policy and the U.S. government shutdown increased price volatility. [21] 3.2 U.S. Economic Soft Landing and Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts, Supporting the Price of Risk Assets - In 2026, the U.S. economic resilience, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and structural consumption will continue to affect the copper price, providing support at the bottom and a ceiling at the top. [24] - The U.S. economy may achieve a soft landing, with consumption showing a trend of moderate positive growth, investment presenting a structural change, and net exports maintaining a large deficit but with a reduced drag on GDP. [24][25][27] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy will continue to be loose, with interest rates likely to decline overall. This will reduce the risk - free rate, increase the valuation of risk assets, and support economic growth, which will also drive up the copper price. [29][32] 3.3 Fundamentals: The Expectation of Marginal Consumption Recovery is Strengthening, and the Logic of Supply Tightness is Spreading to the Smelting End 3.3.1 New - Quality Productivity and the New - Energy Industry Significantly Contribute to the Increment of Copper Consumption - AI drives the potential of U.S. copper consumption, and the U.S. has a high tolerance for copper price increases. It is estimated that the AI computing power centers in the U.S. will drive an additional copper consumption of 4.73 million tons in 2026. [37][42] - Policy - driven new - energy industries are developing strongly, with an increasing copper consumption. It is expected that the global new - energy industry will have a copper consumption increment of 32.06 million tons in 2026. [54] - China's "14th Five - Year Plan" supports the development of new - quality productivity, and power grid investment is an important engine for copper consumption growth. It is estimated that the power grid investment will drive a copper consumption increment of 31.84 million tons in 2026. [81][84] 3.3.2 Traditional Industries' Copper Consumption Continues to Increase, but with Significant Differences Among Countries - China's policies support the traditional industries, but the growth rate of copper consumption is slowing down. The real - estate market will continue to adjust, and the consumption of traditional fuel - powered vehicles will decline. It is estimated that the traditional industries in China will have a copper consumption decrease of 7.62 million tons in 2026. [89][90][101] - The U.S. and Europe have cut interest rates multiple times, supporting the moderate development of traditional industries. The U.S. real - estate market is expected to recover in 2026, and the European copper demand will increase due to grid transformation and other factors. [109][120] - Japan's traditional industries face uncertainties in recovery, while South Korea's traditional industries face pressure but receive strong policy support. [126][129] - Developing and emerging countries have a significant increment in copper consumption. Southeast Asia has become a world economic growth pole, India's economy is growing at a relatively high speed, the Middle East is transforming from resource - dependence to diversification, South America's economy is growing moderately, and Africa is promoting growth and reducing poverty. [131][134][142] 3.3.3 Tight Raw - Material Supply and Excessive Expansion of Smelting Capacity - The production of copper mines is highly disturbed, and the output is lower than expected. It is estimated that the global copper mine output will increase by 68 million tons in 2026, but the available copper concentrate increment in the market will be about 51 million tons. [151][157] - The domestic supply of scrap copper increases, but the growth rate of scrap - copper imports slows down. It is estimated that the domestic scrap - copper supply will increase by 15 million tons in 2026, and the scrap - copper import volume will be the same as in 2025. [168][177] - China's copper smelting capacity is expanding, and the copper output is increasing significantly. It is estimated that the domestic refined - copper output will increase by 68.75 million tons in 2026, while the overseas electrolytic - copper output will only decrease by less than 3 million tons. [185][190] 3.3.4 Balance Sheet: It is Expected that the Global Copper Supply will be in Surplus in 2025 but in a Large Deficit in 2026 - It is expected that the global copper mine supply will be in shortage from 2025 to 2026, affecting the refined - copper output and changing the supply situation from surplus to deficit. In 2025, the global refined - copper supply will have a surplus of 9.1 million tons, while in 2026, it will have a deficit of 19.7 million tons. [198] 3.4 Conclusion and Investment Outlook 3.4.1 Logic of the Copper Price in 2026: Macro - Level Support from Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts and Micro - Level Supply - Demand Gap - The copper price is expected to remain strong in 2026, with potential for further increase. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will support the economy, and the supply - demand gap will also drive up the price. [200] 3.4.2 Investment Outlook - Unilateral trading: Multiple logics drive the price to remain strong. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the supply - demand gap support the price. In terms of rhythm, the price is more likely to be strong in the first half of the year, and the increment of refined copper from Indonesian mines in the second half may limit the upside space. However, market capital, U.S. copper tariff policy expectations, and the pricing of emerging industries are still conducive to increasing the upward volatility of the price. [204][205] - Arbitrage trading: There is a certainty in the term positive arbitrage of Shanghai Copper and LME Copper. The de - stocking of global copper inventories in 2026 and the price difference between COMEX and LME copper will drive the trade. The internal - external reverse and positive arbitrage are stage - based trades. Each has its own logic and risk points. [208][209]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the elements in the trading logic of platinum and palladium are more numerous than before. The fundamental contradiction in the platinum and palladium spot market and the optimistic macro - loose environment will support the rise of platinum and palladium in the first half of the year. Platinum may have a higher increase than palladium due to better fundamentals and stronger financial attributes. In the second half, if the spot contradiction eases, prices may fall. If US tariffs are implemented, the global supply - chain pattern of platinum and palladium will be reshaped. The expected price range for platinum is $1500 - 2800 per ounce in US dollars and 380 - 730 yuan per gram in RMB; for palladium, it is $1200 - 2250 per ounce in US dollars and 300 - 590 yuan per gram in RMB [2]. - In 2026, it is recommended to focus on cross - market arbitrage opportunities caused by spot structural imbalances. Consider a long - platinum and short - palladium ratio strategy. For the medium - to long - term unilateral strategy, it is advisable to go long on platinum at low prices, and for short - term intraday or weekly bands, consider allocating palladium, that is, go long on palladium when it has a deep correction [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 2025 Platinum and Palladium Price Review 3.1.1 Platinum Price Logic Review - In 2025, platinum had a 93% increase by December 15. It broke through the 10 - year oscillation range, with macro - sentiment as the core catalyst and good fundamentals as the support. The price went through different stages including shock - building, explosive growth, callback - oscillation, and secondary growth [6]. 3.1.2 Palladium Price Operation - In 2025, palladium had a unique "oscillation - climbing and long - short game" market, with a 67% increase by December 15. The core driving logic was the triple game of macro - liquidity loosening, supply - demand structural contradiction, and industrial transformation pressure. In the first half, it oscillated, and in the second half, it rose significantly due to macro - liquidity changes and market - structure marginal changes [14]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Sentiment - In 2025, the global macro - environment was characterized by "loose - dominated, resilient growth, and co - existing differentiation". Major economies implemented loose policies, with the global GDP growth rate expected to be in the 2.7% - 3.4% range and inflation gradually falling to 3% - 4.2%. However, trade protectionism and policy uncertainties still posed potential pressures [20]. - In 2026, the global economy will slow down moderately, and the loose cycle will continue with significant differentiation. The attractiveness of anti - inflation assets such as precious metals is expected to increase. In 2025, platinum's price soared due to price - to - return advantages, supply - demand gaps, and growth - type demand, but it cannot truly replace gold due to core shortcomings in liquidity, stability, and lack of currency attributes [21][22]. 3.3 Supply Side in 2026 3.3.1 Primary Mineral Differentiation - South Africa's power supply has improved, but there are still local shortages. In 2026, mines and residents may face stepped power rationing. The production rhythm of core mining enterprises is stable, but there is no obvious growth momentum. The All - In Sustaining Costs (AISC) of core mining enterprises have soared, and Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) has decreased, which will drag down the realization of existing and new production capacities to some extent [26][33][39]. 3.3.2 Recycling Supply - Global platinum and palladium recycling enterprises have sufficient production - capacity reserves. Driven by high prices, they have a strong willingness to increase production. It is expected that in 2026, the global platinum and palladium recycling supply scale will increase significantly, with an expected incremental supply of 15 - 20 tons in China [46][47]. 3.3.3 Spot Structural Contradiction - Affected by the US 232 investigation and the anti - dumping and counter -vailing investigations on palladium, platinum and palladium inventories have been hoarded in the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), leading to frequent liquidity crises in the New York and London markets and violent fluctuations in the price spread between the two markets. Before the judgment results are announced in the first half of 2026, the spot structural imbalance will remain an "irreconcilable contradiction" [48][50][52]. 3.4 Demand Side in 2026 3.4.1 Hybrid Electric Vehicles Replace Traditional Energy Vehicles - The global automotive market is shifting towards new energy vehicles. It is expected that in 2026, the sales volume of pure - electric and hybrid vehicles will reach 26.1 million. Hybrid electric vehicles have a higher total platinum - palladium load than traditional fuel vehicles, which alleviates the decline in platinum - palladium demand. Globally, platinum demand in the automotive field is expected to increase by 0.91%, while palladium demand is expected to decrease by 0.06% [59][70][71]. 3.4.2 Industrial Demand - In the glass - fiber industry, China's new production capacity is expected to increase platinum demand by 3.3 tons in 2026. In the petrochemical industry, platinum demand has a moderate growth expectation. The promotion of fuel - cell vehicles is declining, and there is no hope of explosive growth in the short term. Overall, platinum and palladium industrial demand is expected to increase by 3% in 2026 [79][84][91]. 3.4.3 Jewelry Demand - China's platinum jewelry demand has declined for two consecutive years, and India has restricted platinum jewelry imports. It is expected that global platinum jewelry demand will decline by 10% in 2026, while palladium jewelry demand is expected to remain stable [92][94][95]. 3.4.4 Investment Demand - Platinum and palladium investment products are niche. In 2026, as prices rise in the first half, ETFs may continue to increase their holdings; when prices reach a high level, there may be profit - taking. It is expected that the investment demand for platinum and palladium will decline by 30% throughout the year [97][103][106]. 3.5 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - On the supply side, in 2026, the global platinum mineral supply is expected to remain stable or increase slightly, while the palladium mineral supply will be stable. The recycling supply will be the core incremental source, with an expected increase of 6 tons of platinum and 10 tons of palladium [107]. - On the demand side, there is significant differentiation. In the automotive exhaust - catalysis field, hybrid vehicles help stop the decline in platinum - palladium demand. In 2026, platinum will be in a tight - supply balance, and palladium will have a slight supply surplus [108][109]. - The platinum and palladium spot market has a significant structural contradiction, which will support price increases in the medium term. Key factors to track include the release of hidden inventories, price differentiation between platinum and palladium, and the change in investment sentiment [111].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, zinc prices may decline first and then rise. Pay attention to the start of the resonance of internal and external restocking under the reversal of expectations. The supply - side contradiction will continue to dominate the price, and the expansion of consumption space determines the upper limit of the price. [2][107] - The zinc ore market is approaching the end of the expansion cycle, and production disturbances are increasing. The incremental space of zinc ore is relatively limited, and the tight balance of zinc ore may become the norm, which means continuous pressure on TC. The upward space of TC in 2026 may be lower than that in 2025, and zinc prices have the elasticity to rise. [2][107] - The annual operating range of LME zinc is expected to be $2800 - 3400 per ton, and that of SHFE zinc is expected to be 21,000 - 25,000 yuan per ton. [2][107] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Review - In 2025, the market had a consistent expectation of zinc element surplus. At the beginning of the year, due to winter stockpiling and mine production increase expectations, processing fees rose, leading to an increase in smelter production expectations and a decline in zinc prices. In February - March, zinc prices fluctuated narrowly due to weak supply - demand. [8] - In the second quarter, zinc prices fell again due to unexpected US tariffs. After mid - April, prices gradually returned to fundamental pricing, and downstream buying interest was stimulated. In May, domestic smelter overhauls followed one after another, and prices were in a tangled consolidation. [9] - In the third quarter, global zinc ore production increased, and domestic refined zinc production continued to expand. However, the restart of the Fed's interest - rate cut and domestic economic policies provided support for zinc prices, which entered a sideways shock. Overseas smelters had difficulties in increasing production, and LME inventories continued to decline. [9] - In the fourth quarter, the refined zinc export window opened, but the actual export volume was lower than expected. The structural risk of overseas inventories still existed, and the price of LME zinc was relatively strong. At the same time, the shortage of ore supply increased, and TC accelerated downward, compressing smelter profits. [10][11] 3.2 Zinc Ore Incremental Space is Limited, and Tight Balance May Become the Main Theme 3.2.1 Zinc ore expansion is coming to an end, and production disturbances are increasing, resulting in limited incremental space for zinc ore - The zinc ore industry is in the stage of defensive capital expenditure, and the incremental scale of new zinc ore production has significantly narrowed compared with the past. Overseas zinc - mining enterprises have a weak willingness to make capital expenditures. [15] - Although the current LME zinc price can cover the profits of 99% of global mines, the low CAPEX in the past decade restricts the increase of zinc ore production, and the global ore production is sensitive to marginal disturbances. [17] - In 2025, global zinc ore production may increase by 500,000 tons, lower than the initial expectation. In 2026, it may increase by 400,000 tons, with limited incremental projects and structural differentiation. [22][23] 3.2.2 There is room for domestic zinc ore production increase, and the Huoshaoyun project is an additional variable - The Huoshaoyun project has uncertainties in production increase. Its ore is difficult to process, and the impact of the mine on the market is relatively limited. The production increase progress of its smelter is the key. [28] - Without considering the Huoshaoyun project, the actual new and restarted production capacity in 2025 may be about 50,000 tons, and the domestic mine increment may be the same as the previous year. Considering the project, there may be an increment of 30,000 - 50,000 tons in 2025 and 100,000 tons in 2026. [28] - In 2025, the cumulative import of zinc concentrates from January to October was 4.3489 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.59%. In the second half of the year, the import window closed, but in the fourth quarter, the import volume may have a certain recovery. [31] - Russia, Peru, and Australia are the main sources of domestic zinc ore imports. In 2026, the Ozernoye mine in Russia may contribute an increment of 100,000 tons, and Iranian mines may also have some incremental releases. [32] 3.2.3 Domestic zinc smelting capacity is continuously in surplus, and the gap between zinc ore production and demand is prominent - From January to November 2025, the cumulative production of refined zinc was 6.2815 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.69%. The annual output is expected to be 6.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 650,000 tons. [42] - In 2025, the expansion of zinc smelting capacity continued, with an expected incremental capacity of 430,000 tons. In 2026, there will still be some smelting capacity put into production, but the capacity utilization rate depends on smelting profits. [42] - Currently, the capacity utilization rate of refined zinc is declining, and low TC seriously erodes smelter profits, resulting in large - scale overhaul and production cuts. In 2026, the production of domestic smelters may increase, but the profit space of the smelting end may be further compressed. [42] 3.2.4 There is pressure on the increase of TC Benchmark, and the复产 space of overseas smelters is small - The market has different expectations for the increase of BM in 2026. It is expected that the BM in 2026 may be set at $80 - 100, and in a pessimistic scenario, it may remain at $80. [50] - European smelters' production remains stable, mainly depending on their own electricity prices. Asian smelters have a low cost and a willingness to resume production, but the expected BM may not provide good incentives for overseas smelters to resume production. [57][59] 3.3 In the First Year of the 15th Five - Year Plan, There is Room for Expansion in Domestic Consumption, and Overseas Consumption Continues to Recover 3.3.1 Fiscal policy supports domestic consumption, durable consumer goods have a weak recovery, and pay attention to the structural increment of UHV and ships - In 2025, fiscal policy increased its support for consumption, with the proportion of people's livelihood - related fiscal expenditures increasing. The issuance of local bonds was stable, but the funds flowing into infrastructure were squeezed to some extent. [72] - In 2025, fiscal policy was pre - exerted, and the policy intensity was insufficient in the second half of the year. In 2026, it is expected that fiscal policy will continue to be strong, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to reach 3.6%. [78] - The real estate market is still in the stage of adjustment and bottom - building, and its drag on zinc consumption is weakening. It is expected that the real estate policy will be further relaxed in 2026, but the zinc consumption at the completion end may still be negative, with a growth rate of - 13.8%. [85] 3.3.2 Overseas consumption continues a weak recovery, and pay attention to the growth of emerging countries - The US inventory replenishment cycle stimulates demand. The Fed's interest - rate cut restarts, which stimulates enterprise investment and household consumption. The US real estate market may have a mild recovery in 2026, and the zinc consumption chain is expected to maintain an inertial growth rate. [92] - India's zinc consumption has increased rapidly. In the 2025/2026 fiscal year, India's infrastructure capital expenditure has reached a record high, which will continuously drive the demand for zinc consumption. [98] 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance - For the supply increment in 2026, attention should be paid to the structural differentiation of mine increments and the uncertainty of supply release. The Huoshaoyun project and the output of mines in Russia and Iran are uncertain factors affecting the balance sheet. [101][102] - In 2026, it is expected that policies will further boost consumption, and the consumption end still has room for expansion. The infrastructure industry is the key support for zinc consumption, and the real estate industry's drag on zinc consumption is weakening. [102] - Domestically, the supply growth rate slows down, consumption space is optimistic, and there is only a slight surplus of zinc ingots. Overseas, smelters have limited restarts, consumption continues to recover, and the overseas surplus may be higher than that in China. [103][104] 3.5 Conclusions and Outlook - In 2026, zinc prices may decline first and then rise. Pay attention to the resonance of internal and external restocking. The supply - side contradiction dominates the price, and consumption space determines the upper limit of the price. [106][107] - The investment outlook includes a long - only strategy on dips or buying call options for single - side trading; for term arbitrage, there are opportunities for positive term arbitrage in the Shanghai zinc market; for internal - external trading, there is still uncertainty, and phased internal - external reverse arbitrage can be carried out based on the idea of opening the domestic zinc ore import window. [3][108]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the pricing logic of aluminum metals with imagination since the fourth quarter of this year will continue. Although the year - on - year growth rate of apparent demand for aluminum metals is expected to decline further, the report remains optimistic about the unilateral direction of aluminum prices, smelting profits of aluminum plants, and price volatility due to the likely low - growth global supply [1][54][315]. - For alumina, the market is likely to see over - supply. It is recommended to sell on rebounds. The profit - grabbing ability of alumina in the industrial chain will remain weak in 2026 [196][319]. - For recycled cast aluminum alloys, prices will generally follow aluminum prices and have a certain upward elasticity. The price - to - electrolytic aluminum ratio of ADC12 is expected to rise, and its price may exceed the 2025 high [7][324]. - In 2026, key structural strategies include cross - border arbitrage, calendar spread arbitrage, cross - variety arbitrage, and over - the - counter options [8][327]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review of 2025 Market and Main Driving Logic of Three Aluminum Products 1.1 Electrolytic Aluminum (AL) - In 2025, the aluminum price showed a low - volatility and convergent pattern for most of the time, with the annual low higher than that in 2024 and the high failing to break through the 2024 high. By the end of 2025, the price increase was 11.0%, lower than that of copper and tin [11]. - The main reasons were the "double - weak" supply - demand pattern and the lack of a clear macro - trading theme. However, since October, with the positive impact of AI - driven power demand on the supply - demand pattern, combined with stock - futures linkage, the aluminum price broke through the convergent pattern [12][14]. 1.2 Alumina (AO) - In 2025, alumina prices fell by 41.1%. In the first half of the year, there was a unilateral decline, and in the second half, there were two "advance - to - retreat" style declines. The main reason was the over - supply and inventory accumulation [17]. 1.3 Recycled Cast Aluminum Alloy (AD) - In 2025, the price center of recycled cast aluminum alloy moved up, generally following the electrolytic aluminum price. The price was supported by the supply shortage of scrap aluminum, especially in the second half of the year after the futures listing [23][24]. 1.4 Strategy Review of Three Aluminum Products - Cross - border arbitrage: In 2025, the most profitable position was the long - LME aluminum and short - SHFE aluminum (positive arbitrage), with a maximum annualized return of over 20% [26][28]. - Cross - variety arbitrage: Copper - aluminum arbitrage, alumina - aluminum arbitrage, alumina - caustic soda arbitrage, and aluminum - aluminum alloy arbitrage provided many profitable strategies [31][34]. - Calendar spread arbitrage: The basis and calendar spread structure of aluminum were generally flat. The basis opportunities of alumina and aluminum alloy were stronger than the calendar spread opportunities [44][45]. 2. Electrolytic Aluminum: Can the "Gathering of Small Demands" and Supply Stories Boost Elasticity? 2.1 Resilience of Primary Aluminum Demand - AI - related industries such as computing centers, energy storage, the US power grid, and robots, as well as military applications and "aluminum replacing copper," are expected to contribute about 1.2 - 1.6 percentage points to China's primary aluminum demand growth rate in 2026 [56][156]. - "Light and vehicle" consumption growth contribution will decline to + 0.1 percentage points, mainly due to the decline in photovoltaic demand [107][114]. - Traditional "foundation, infrastructure, and electricity" and manufacturing industries are expected to contribute 0 - 1 percentage point to the demand growth rate [116][117]. - In 2026, China's exports of aluminum products and aluminum products are expected to increase slightly, contributing 0.5 - 1 percentage point to the demand growth rate [155][156]. 2.2 Key Risks for the Bullish View - China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity ceiling is approaching, and in 2026, the production growth rate is expected to be about + 1.7%. The main risk is the potential increase in production capacity if green - power smelting can break through the ceiling [157][158][163]. - Overseas supply, especially from Indonesia, is a major risk. Although the new production in 2026 is expected to be at a low - growth rate, the power supply conditions need to be closely monitored [165][173][179]. 2.3 Supply - Demand Balance of Primary Aluminum - In China, under the baseline and optimistic scenarios in 2026, the annual shortage is expected to be 12.4 - 25.8 tons, and the inventory accumulation pressure in the first quarter is controllable [2][316]. - Globally, the supply - demand balance is expected to be in a shortage range of 19 - 82 tons, with a median of about 50 tons. Considering the production cut of the Mozambique aluminum plant, the global shortage may exceed 50 tons [2][187][316]. 3. Alumina: Where is the Bottom in the Dilemma between Fundamental Drivers and Valuation? 3.1 Supply Rigidity Remains Unsolved, and the Over - Supply Pattern is Hard to Change - As of the end of 2025, the production of alumina remained rigid. Although high - cost producers have suffered losses for two months, the production has not decreased significantly. However, there may be large - scale production cuts or maintenance in January - February [197][198]. - In 2026, there is still a large - scale new investment in alumina production capacity. The annual average growth rate of alumina production is expected to be about 5.3%, and the production - demand gap will be large [204][205]. - Overseas alumina production capacity is also increasing. Although there is a risk of overseas supply impacting the Chinese market, the Chinese market's production increase is more certain, and exports may exceed 2025 [210][211]. - In 2026, the supply - demand balance of alumina in China and globally is expected to be in a serious over - supply situation, but there are uncertainties in the inventory accumulation in the second half of the year [228][229]. 3.2 Under the Over - Supply Pattern, the Cost - Based Pricing of AO Continues - In 2026, the supply of Guinea bauxite is expected to be abundant, with a potential increase of 3693 - 6300 tons. If the monthly arrival in China exceeds 1530 tons, the supply of bauxite in China will be stable [240][241]. - Alumina's profit - grabbing ability in the industrial chain is expected to remain weak in 2026, mainly due to the decline in bauxite prices and the optimization of production capacity structure [258]. 4. Recycled Cast Aluminum Alloy: The Contradiction at the Raw Material End is Prominent, and the Ratio Center Rises 4.1 The Ratio Center of Scrap Aluminum to Electrolytic Aluminum Tends to Rise - The actual shipment volume of scrap aluminum in 2025 was lower than expected. The increase in imports did not effectively alleviate the supply shortage. The main reason was the mismatch between the supply and demand growth rates of scrap aluminum [262][271]. - The cancellation of the tax rebate policy has increased the cost of recycled aluminum enterprises, and the EU's possible export tariff on scrap aluminum may exacerbate the global supply shortage [291][296]. 4.2 Assessment of Supply and Demand of Recycled Aluminum Alloys - In 2025, the expansion rate of recycled aluminum alloy production capacity slowed down, but the capacity utilization rate was still low. In 2026, the production capacity growth rate is expected to slow down, and some production capacity may exit [300][301]. - The demand for recycled aluminum alloys has certain resilience, but the industry is still in an over - capacity situation. ADC12 is a cost - based pricing product, and the cost - pricing logic will be more obvious [307]. 5. Trading Themes to Watch in 2026 5.1 Unilateral Judgment of Electrolytic Aluminum - In 2026, the pricing logic of aluminum with imagination will continue. Although the apparent demand growth rate is expected to decline, the report is optimistic about the price, smelting profit, and price volatility. The main risks are macro - economic recession and over - production in Indonesia [315][318]. 5.2 Unilateral Judgment of Alumina - It is recommended to sell on rebounds. The over - supply pattern is difficult to change in 2026. The profit - grabbing ability in the industrial chain will remain weak, and the main risks are the introduction of a "production capacity ceiling" policy and bauxite supply disruptions in Guinea [319][323]. 5.3 Unilateral Judgment of Recycled Cast Aluminum Alloy - The price will generally follow the electrolytic aluminum price and has a certain upward elasticity. The main risks are the continuous release of new production capacity and lower - than - expected automobile consumption growth [324][326]. 5.4 Structural Strategies - Cross - border arbitrage: Positive arbitrage in the first half of the year and possible reverse arbitrage in the second half [327]. - Calendar spread arbitrage: Selectively conduct positive arbitrage [327]. - Cross - variety arbitrage: Short caustic soda based on alumina production cuts; buy aluminum and short copper when the copper - aluminum ratio rises too fast; conduct spread arbitrage between electrolytic aluminum and recycled cast aluminum alloy [327]. - Over - the - counter options: Regularly implement the low - level buying strategy - enhanced accumulative purchase [327].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on December 19, 2025, including whether they will be in a strong or weak shock state and their corresponding support and resistance levels [2][3][4][5][8] - The report also provides macro - information and trading tips, including national policies, international events, and economic data, which may affect the futures market [8][9][10][11] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be strongly volatile on December 19. For example, IF2603 has resistance at 4539 and 4576 points and support at 4486 and 4461 points. In December 2025, the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are likely to be in wide - range fluctuations [2][19] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year T2603 and 30 - year TL2603 are expected to be strongly volatile on December 19. The 10 - year T2603 has resistance at 108.07 and 108.14 yuan and support at 107.92 and 107.87 yuan; the 30 - year TL2603 has resistance at 112.7 and 113.2 yuan and support at 111.9 and 111.7 yuan [3][34][36] - **Precious Metal Futures** - **Gold**: The main contract AU2602 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate on December 19, with resistance at 988.8 and 993.0 yuan/gram and support at 975.7 and 972.5 yuan/gram. In December 2025, it is likely to be strongly and widely volatile [40] - **Silver**: The main contract AG2602 is expected to be weakly volatile on December 19, with support at 15033 and 14779 yuan/kg and resistance at 15521 and 15666 yuan/kg. In December 2025, it is likely to be strongly volatile and may hit a new high [46][47] - **Platinum**: The main contract PT2606 is expected to be weakly and widely volatile on December 19, with resistance at 550.0 and 570.0 yuan/gram and support at 542.6 and 535.0 yuan/gram [51] - **Palladium**: The main contract PD2606 is expected to have wide - range fluctuations on December 19, with resistance at 490.0 and 510.0 yuan/gram and support at 476.6 and 470.0 yuan/gram, and may hit a new high [54] - **Base Metal Futures** - **Copper**: The main contract CU2602 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate on December 19, with resistance at 93800 and 94700 yuan/ton and support at 91600 and 91100 yuan/ton. In December 2025, it is likely to be strongly volatile and may hit a new high [57] - **Tin**: The main contract SN2601 is expected to be strongly volatile on December 19, with resistance at 342000 and 345000 yuan/ton and support at 334300 and 331600 yuan/ton. In December 2025, it is likely to be strongly volatile [62] - **Other Commodity Futures** - **Polysilicon**: The main contract PS2605 is expected to be weakly and widely volatile on December 19, with support at 58000 and 56800 yuan/ton and resistance at 60000 and 62000 yuan/ton. In December 2025, it is likely to be strongly volatile [64][66] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract LC2605 is expected to have wide - range fluctuations on December 19, with resistance at 106300 and 110000 yuan/ton and support at 104500 and 102700 yuan/ton. In December 2025, it is likely to be strongly volatile [72] - **Rebar**: The main contract RB2605 is expected to be weakly volatile on December 19, with support at 3096 and 3075 yuan/ton and resistance at 3137 and 3157 yuan/ton. In December 2025, it is likely to have wide - range fluctuations [77] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The main contract HC2605 is expected to be weakly volatile on December 19, with support at 3238 and 3225 yuan/ton and resistance at 3282 and 3298 yuan/ton [82] - **Iron Ore**: The main contract I2605 is expected to have wide - range fluctuations on December 19, with resistance at 784 and 788 yuan/ton and support at 770 and 767 yuan/ton. In December 2025, it is likely to be weakly and widely volatile [84] - **Coking Coal**: The main contract JM2605 is expected to be weakly and widely volatile on December 19, with support at 1100 and 1070 yuan/ton and resistance at 1133 and 1145 yuan/ton. In December 2025, it is likely to have wide - range fluctuations [90] - **Glass**: The main contract FG605 is expected to be weakly and widely volatile on December 19, with support at 1033 and 1021 yuan/ton and resistance at 1069 and 1085 yuan/ton. In December 2025, it is likely to have wide - range fluctuations [94] - **Soda Ash**: The main contract SA605 is expected to be weakly and widely volatile on December 19, with support at 1170 and 1160 yuan/ton and resistance at 1193 and 1205 yuan/ton. In December 2025, it is likely to have wide - range fluctuations and may hit a new low [100] - **PTA**: The main contract TA605 is expected to be strongly volatile on December 19, with resistance at 4850 and 4894 yuan/ton and support at 4742 and 4726 yuan/ton [104] 2. Macro - Information and Trading Tips - The National Development and Reform Commission will take measures to expand effective investment, including expanding investment in emerging industries and adjusting the pilot scope of local government special bond projects [8] - The State Administration for Market Regulation will promote the construction of a unified national market and strengthen fair competition governance [8] - The US has launched a US $11 billion arms sale to Taiwan, which China firmly opposes [8] - Hainan Free Trade Port officially started the whole - island customs closure operation on December 18, 2025, expanding the "zero - tariff" commodity range [9] - China has re - implemented export license management for steel products and approved some rare - earth export general license applications [9] - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council has issued a new method for holding central enterprises accountable for illegal business investment [9] - Market institutions expect the central bank to cut the reserve requirement ratio by about 0.5 percentage points and the interest rate by about 0.1 percentage points in 2026 [10] - A new consumption model called the "reward economy" is emerging among young people [10] - US President Trump will announce the next Fed chair nominee who supports "substantial" interest - rate cuts [10] - Trump will sign a nearly US $1 trillion annual defense policy bill, with the approved annual military expenditure reaching a record high of US $901 billion [10] - The US November core CPI rose 2.6% year - on - year, and the overall CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, both lower than expected, but the data reliability is questioned [11] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 13,000 to 224,000, and the number of continued jobless claims increased by 67,000 to 1.897 million [11] - The European Central Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2% for the fourth consecutive time [11] - The Bank of England cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% [11] 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - On December 18, London base metals showed mixed performance. LME copper fell 0.13%, LME zinc fell 0.44%, LME nickel rose 1.84%, LME aluminum rose 0.38%, LME tin rose 1.53%, and LME lead fell 0.05% [12] - On December 18, international precious - metal futures generally closed down. COMEX gold futures fell 0.23%, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.17% [12] - A large undersea gold mine was discovered in Laizhou, Shandong, with the city's total proven gold reserves accounting for about 26% of the country's total [12] - On December 18, US oil and Brent crude oil futures rose slightly [13] - Goldman Sachs predicts that copper prices will consolidate in 2026, with an average price of US $11,400 per ton in the baseline scenario, and gold prices will rise 14% to US $4,900 per ounce by December 2026 [13] - On December 18, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 41 basis points at the 16:30 close [13] - In November, the RMB ranked sixth in the global payment currency ranking by amount, accounting for 2.94% [13] - On December 18, the US dollar index rose 0.04%, and most non - US currencies rose [14]