2025 年 12 月 18 日 供应扩张，估值重塑 ---2026 年 MEG 期货行情展望 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com 报告导读： 我们的观点： 乙二醇 2026 年投产压力较大，单边趋势偏弱，基差月差反套，多 PX 空 MEG。 究 所 我们的逻辑： 乙二醇未来供应过剩的格局下，将成为能化市场的空配品种。从节奏上来看，05 合约的累库压力较大，以反 弹空的操作思路为主，09 合约关注反内卷政策对煤化工产品估值重塑。目前乙二醇的价格已经跌破 2025 年 4 月对等关税期 间的低位 3950 元/吨，2020 年负油价时乙二醇价格跌至 2900 元/吨，当前乙二醇下方空间或有限，波动率将有所收窄。 投资展望：下跌靠预期，上涨靠交割。2025 年四季度开始，乙二醇港口库存始终在底部，价格先行。供应过剩预期之下， 多头持货意愿下降，基差月差走出流畅的反套行情。2026 年一季度，乙二醇的库存压力仍较大，市场卖空情绪浓厚，但仍 需要警惕在临近交割时可能出现超卖补空的需求带动的反弹行情。 风险提示：煤炭价格受政策影响较大，可能对乙二醇行情产生扰动。 请务必阅 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyolefin production is expected to be low in the first half and high in the second half of 2026, with the overall supply growth rate slowing down, but the high - growth demand is also difficult to maintain. PE and PP may continue to "squeeze imports, increase exports" and compress the profits of each process to maintain the low operation of existing plants, achieving a balance between supply and demand in the fundamentals, and the price trend is expected to be weakly volatile [2]. - The supply pattern is still in an over - supply situation. Although the new production capacity in 2026 is less than that in 2025, the effective production capacity center continues to rise, and the inventory production capacity load needs to be carefully released. The demand growth rate is expected to return to the historical average range, and the overall pattern of PE and PP remains over - supplied [57][59]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 2025 Polyolefin Trend Review - In 2025, the prices of plastics and polypropylene showed a continuous downward trend. The main reasons were the accelerated expansion of PE and PP production capacity, which led to an excessive supply growth rate that the demand side could not match, and the decline in the prices of raw materials such as crude oil, coal, and light hydrocarbons [6]. - The large - scale production cycle of polyolefins started in 2019 - 2020. The rapid promotion of the propane dehydrogenation (PDH) process promoted the accelerated release of PP production capacity. In 2025, the production capacity of PE increased by 463 tons, and that of PP increased by 441 tons [8][9]. - The cost side was also a factor affecting the price. The global crude oil market shifted from tight balance to surplus, and the coal price fluctuated. The impact of trade frictions on the cost was limited, and the market was more inclined to trade the logic of weakening demand for plastic product exports [12]. 2026 Polyolefin Supply - Demand Outlook Supply Side - **New Production Capacity**: The release of new ethylene cracking production capacity may continue until the end of 2026. In 2026, the new production capacity of PE and PP is expected to be released in a pattern of low in the first half and high in the second half. The new production capacity of PE is about 550 tons, and the effective production capacity growth rate is 11%. The new production capacity of PP is about 435 tons, and the effective production capacity growth rate is 6.7% [20][21][22]. - **Existing Plant Operation**: The profit and operation center of polyolefins have shown a downward trend in the past four years. In 2026, the overall supply elasticity of PE is limited, while the supply elasticity of PP is more obvious, especially the PDH process, and the load of PDH plants needs to be continuously tracked [23][28][32]. Import and Export - **PE**: In 2025, domestic production squeezed imports. In 2026, the actual number of overseas projects that can be put into production may be small, and the import pressure is expected to still come from the Middle East and the United States. The overall import is expected to maintain a squeezed pattern, and the net import may continue to decline by about 1 million tons [33][37][57]. - **PP**: In 2025, the export center of PP increased significantly, and it achieved a phased net - export pattern. In 2026, the overseas production is expected to be concentrated in South Asia, and the export may continue to increase, with the possibility of turning into a net - export pattern throughout the year [39]. Demand Side - **Product Exports**: In 2025, from January to October, the export amount of plastic products in China decreased slightly year - on - year. The exports to the United States decreased significantly, while the exports to non - US markets mostly increased positively. In 2026, the traditional demand momentum is insufficient, but the emerging economies will support the export of plastic products to maintain resilience [43][45][46]. - **Domestic Demand**: In 2025, the apparent demand growth rate of polyolefins was high, but there were many influencing factors. In 2026, the terminal demand of polyolefins may continue to differentiate, and the high - growth rate of demand is difficult to maintain, with the demand growth rate expected to drop to the range of 3 - 5.5% [47][54][57]. Summary and Investment Outlook - In 2026, the production capacity release of PE and PP is in a pattern of low in the first half and high in the second half. The domestic production growth rate is still high, and the overall supply growth rate of PE is about 5.4%. The demand growth rate is expected to drop to 3 - 5.5%, and the overall pattern is still over - supplied. The supply growth rate of PP is about 3.8%, and the demand side may match the supply growth [57][58][59]. - PE and PP may continue to "squeeze imports, increase exports" and compress process profits to maintain low operation of existing plants to achieve supply - demand balance. The price is expected to be weakly volatile. Pay attention to the logistics changes of imports and exports and the supply elasticity of marginal plants such as PDH [59][60].

Report Information - Report Title: "Profit Rebalancing under Rhythm Game - Outlook for LPG & Propylene Futures Market in 2026" [1] - Report Date: December 18, 2025 - Analysts: Chen Xinchao (Investment Consulting Qualification No.: Z0020238), Zhao Shucen (Contact Person, Futures Practitioner Qualification No.: F03147780) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The operating logic of the C3 industrial chain is expected to shift from unilateral compression in 2025 to profit repair under range - bound fluctuations in 2026. The propane price center is likely to remain relatively low, providing weak cost - side support for the C3 industrial chain. Meanwhile, with the slowdown of propylene capacity expansion and the continued drive from downstream sectors, the supply - demand outlook for propylene is expected to improve marginally, but attention should be paid to the actual implementation of new plant construction under the low - profit background. The opportunities in the industrial chain mainly lie in periodic repairs rather than a trend reversal [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. 2025 LPG, Propylene Trend Review 3.1.1 2025 LPG Market Review - The LPG market in 2025 can be divided into four stages: In the first quarter, the domestic civil gas market was in a seasonal peak. The spot price of the lowest deliverable product in the domestic market was around 4,800 - 4,900 CNY/ton, and the market fluctuated widely with costs. From April to May, affected by tariff policies, the external market price of crude oil and FEI market prices plummeted, and then rebounded. The domestic market was weak due to high inventory and low demand. From June to September, with the shift of the import trade center to the Middle East, the supply was stable, but the demand was weak, and the market was under pressure. In the fourth quarter, the CP price dropped, PDH profit was briefly repaired, and the chemical demand increased. The supply - demand situation improved, but the long - term supply was still loose [8][9]. 3.1.2 2025 Propylene Market Review - The propylene market in 2025 also had three stages: In the first quarter, new capacity led to an oversupply situation, and the price declined. From June to August, due to the shutdown of main production plants and maintenance of multiple devices, the supply tightened, and the price rebounded, but the sustainability was limited due to weak downstream demand. In the fourth quarter, the downstream profit was compressed, demand weakened, and the price dropped to a five - year low [11][13][14]. 3.2. 2026 LPG Operating Logic 3.2.1 Supply Side - In 2025, China's LPG imports remained stable, but the import structure changed significantly. After the adjustment of Sino - US tariff policies in April, the import from the Middle East increased, while that from the US decreased. In 2026, the Middle East's LPG supply has an expected increase, with the main increment concentrated in the second half of the year. The US production growth is expected to slow down, but the export capacity will improve [15][18][34]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - The growth of PDH capacity will further slow down in 2026, and the profit is expected to be repaired. The average operating rate of PDH is expected to increase, driving an additional propane demand of about 2 million tons. The demand for imported propane from domestic cracking plants is expected to remain weak. The propane demand in Japan and South Korea is expected to remain stable, and the growth rate of India's propane demand is expected to slow down, while Southeast Asia's demand may continue to be supported by the operation of existing cracking plants [41][44][52]. 3.2.3 LPG Summary - The supply - demand pattern of propane in 2026 shows a characteristic of "tight at the beginning and loose later, gradually becoming looser". In the first quarter, the supply is relatively tight, but better than in the fourth quarter of 2025. In the second quarter, the market is in a transition period. In the second half of the year, with the release of new capacity in the Middle East, the supply - demand pattern will become looser [57]. 3.3. 2026 Propylene Operating Logic 3.3.1 Supply Side - In 2025, the propylene supply expanded rapidly, and the over - supply situation intensified. In 2026, the growth rate of propylene capacity is expected to slow down to about 9%. The new capacity is mainly concentrated in the second half of the year, and most of the new capacity comes from integrated plants. The supply is still expected to be loose, and the focus will shift to the risks of structural and rhythm mismatches [59][67]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - In 2025, the demand for propylene from major downstream sectors increased by 15%. In 2026, the nominal demand growth rate is about 11%, mainly from polypropylene, propylene oxide, and butanol - octanol. However, due to the over - capacity in the downstream and compressed profits, the actual demand may be less than the nominal demand [69][75]. 3.3.3 Propylene Summary - In 2025, the propylene market in Shandong was generally in a state of over - supply, with a brief tightening in the middle of the year. In 2026, the upstream and downstream production schedules of propylene show a structural characteristic of "downstream first, more downstream production throughout the year". Nationally, the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow in the first half of the year, and the overall pattern will remain stable in the second half of the year. In Shandong, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve gradually, with a possible improvement in the second half of the year [87][89]. 3.4. Overall Summary - In 2025, the global propane supply was abundant, and the price decreased. The propylene market was in an over - supply situation, and the C3 industrial chain was under pressure. In 2026, the propane price is expected to stay low, and the supply - demand situation of propylene is expected to improve marginally. The operating logic of the C3 industrial chain is expected to shift from unilateral compression to profit repair under range - bound fluctuations [95][96].

2025 年 12 月 18 日 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 货 研 究 所 我们的观点：2026 年 PVC 上半年趋势仍有压力，下半年或有减产驱动。因冬季仍是氯碱企业检修淡季，即使存在新增检修， 其规模或有限，对 03 合约之前的期货合约而言，仍然面临高开工、弱需求的格局。博弈大规模减产预期或在 03 合约之后。 此外，PVC 仓单仍处于高位，未来多头接货压力大。整体看，PVC 市场高产量、高库存结构短期难改变，但考虑烧碱利润也 持续下滑，氯碱综合利润处于历史低位水平，明年或可期待供应端在检修旺季的减产力度。 报告导读： 我们的逻辑：1、PVC 期货跌至历史低位水平，且绝对估值处于低位，部分装置因亏损幅度较大，存在减产预期，因此短期不 宜追空。2、烧碱供需格局明显走弱，利润被持续压缩，产业链"以碱补氯"格局难持续。对企业而言，年内生产目标基本 完成，冬季不检修的情况下，可能需要承受较长时间亏损，2026 年春季和夏季检修力度可能会超过今年同期水平。3、PVC 出 口市场竞争压力增大，出口需求增速或放缓。内需来看，与地产相关的 PVC 下游制品需求 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro sentiment has improved, leading to a rebound in the overall commodity market. PX is in a high - level volatile market, PTA has strong cost support, and MEG is expected to rebound due to the anticipated supply contraction under new energy consumption standards [1][2] - The outlook for PX in 2026 remains optimistic, and the narrowing spread between February and March may indicate healthy demand. However, the future PTA exports to India may decrease significantly. The supply of MEG is expected to contract due to equipment maintenance, and the supply - demand pattern has slightly improved [6][7][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: The price of naphtha remained strong at the end of the session. The PX price rose today, with the February physical goods negotiated at 829/838 and March at 833/834, but no deals were made. The PX valuation was 833.5 dollars/ton, up 6.5 dollars from yesterday. The geopolitical risk concerns eased, and the crude oil futures fell to near a five - year low on December 16. A Chinese broker said the weakness of crude oil may have been "priced in", and the PX outlook in 2026 is optimistic [5][6] - PTA: South Korea's PTA exports increased by 63% month - on - month to 199,793 tons in November. Exports to India doubled, but future exports to India may decline significantly due to policy changes [6] - MEG: A 400,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Inner Mongolia advanced its maintenance plan for one line, expected to last until January 9, 2026 [7] - Polyester: Two polyester plants in Nantong plan to carry out maintenance in January and February 2026 respectively for one - month each. The nominal capacities of the plants are 250,000 tons and 160,000 tons, mainly producing dull filaments and bicomponent filaments. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of about 50% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved moderately, with an average sales rate of 66% by 3:00 pm [7] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is 1, indicating a neutral outlook [8] Views and Suggestions - PX: The commodity market rebounded with the improvement of macro sentiment, and PX prices rose. Recently, there have been few changes in PX plants, with the domestic operating rate at 88.1% (- 0.1%). The weekly output is 740,000 tons. Zhejiang Petrochemical plans to carry out over one - month maintenance on CDU and reforming in January 2026, with an expected PX load reduction of about 10%. The Asian operating rate is 79.3% (+ 0.6%). The 400,000 - ton Idemitsu plant restarted, and the 700,000 - ton Satorp plant in the Middle East restarted, while the 550,000 - ton GS PX plant shut down. The PTA operating rate remained at 73.7%. The PXN spread continued to widen. It is recommended to operate in the range of 6550 - 7000, close the 5 - 9 bull spread, and take profit on the long PX and short PTA/BZ positions [8] - PTA: The supply and demand of PX at the cost end are tight, but the polyester is starting to accumulate inventory and incur losses. There may be a negative feedback in the industrial chain due to potential production cuts. Therefore, the upside space of PTA is limited. It is recommended to operate in the range of 4500 - 4800, close the 5 - 9 bull spread, and take profit on the long PX and short PTA/BZ positions [9] - MEG: The market is concerned about the impact of new energy consumption standards on coal - based plants. The current price of 3600 yuan/ton has reached the cost line of most production plants, leading to some plants' operational shutdowns. The supply - demand pattern has slightly improved. Do not chase short positions in the 01 contract. Low profits have led to a widespread decline in plant operating enthusiasm. It is necessary to pay attention to the restart of the 200,000 - ton Huayi plant [9]

2025年12月18日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：宏观情绪好转，商品整体反弹，高位震荡市 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：成本支撑偏强 | 2 | | MEG：关注新的能耗标准，乙二醇供应收缩预期下反弹 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏强20251218 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：震荡中枢上移 | 6 | | 沥青：低位反弹，关注地缘 | 8 | | LLDPE：供应弹性有限，估值继续承压 | 11 | | PP：厂库仓单注销，盘面横盘震荡 | 12 | | 烧碱：短期反弹，后期仍有压力 | 13 | | 纸浆：宽幅震荡20251218 | 14 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 17 | | 尿素：区间运行 | 19 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 21 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 22 | | LPG：短期震荡，趋势承压 | 23 | | 丙烯：短期窄幅调整 | 23 | | PVC：反弹高度受限 | 26 | | 燃料油：夜盘持续反弹，波动上升 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油：短期弱势仍在，外盘现货高低硫价差收窄 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The current core contradiction in the market is that although the continuous reduction of futures warehouse receipts and the firm external market quotations provide bottom support, the domestic supply - demand fundamentals have not changed substantially. The supply - side pressure still exists, with port inventories remaining at a high level despite a slight decline, and the demand side is weak, leading to poor sales of high - priced pulp. The market lacks a one - sided driver to break the current stalemate, with price increases constrained by weak demand and price decreases supported by cost and supply - side expectations. The price of softwood pulp may continue to be under pressure, while hardwood pulp is expected to remain relatively firm under the support of external market costs. [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market (05 Contract)**: The daily closing price of the pulp main contract increased by 38 yuan/ton to 5,506 yuan/ton, and the night - closing price increased by 80 yuan/ton to 5,538 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 206,895 hands to 319,068 hands, the open interest decreased by 189 hands to 207,655 hands, the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 3,566 tons to 187,098 tons, and the net position of the top 20 members increased by 5,369 hands to - 17,545 hands. [3] - **Spread Data**: The basis of Silver Star - futures main contract decreased by 38 to 94, the basis of Goldfish - futures main contract (non - standard) decreased by 38 to - 856, and the monthly spread of SP03 - SP05 decreased by 6 to - 38. [3] - **Spot Market**: For softwood pulp, the domestic prices of Northwood, Cariboo, Lion Brand, Moon, Silver Star, and Russian Needle are 5,850 yuan/ton, 5,800 yuan/ton, 5,750 yuan/ton, 5,450 yuan/ton, 5,600 yuan/ton, and 5,400 yuan/ton respectively, and the international price of Silver Star is 700 US dollars/ton. For hardwood pulp, the domestic prices of Goldfish, Star, and others range from 4,500 - 4,650 yuan/ton, and the international price of Star is 570 US dollars/ton. The domestic price of Chemimechanical pulp (Kunhe) is 3,800 yuan/ton, and the domestic and international prices of Unbleached pulp (Venus) are 5,150 yuan/ton and 620 US dollars/ton respectively. [3] - **Trend Intensity**: The pulp trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. [3] 3.2 Industry News - The futures market was dominated by capital sentiment yesterday, with the SP2605 contract closing flat in the day session, and the spot market prices remained stable. The softwood pulp spot price ranges from 5,200 - 5,800 yuan/ton, and the hardwood pulp ranges from 4,300 - 4,800 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in port inventories and the procurement sentiment in the base paper market. [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis such as the golden section line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on December 18, 2025, including the weak and volatile trend of stock index futures, the strong and volatile trend of most other futures contracts, and the expectation that silver, platinum, and palladium futures will reach new highs since listing [2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - Stock index futures are likely to be weakly volatile. For example, IF2512 has resistance levels at 4614 and 4653 points and support levels at 4535 and 4490 points [2]. - Ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures are likely to be strongly volatile. The ten - year T2603 has resistance levels at 108.07 and 108.22 yuan and support levels at 107.90 and 107.80 yuan; the thirty - year TL2603 has resistance levels at 112.4 and 112.7 yuan and support levels at 111.7 and 111.5 yuan [3]. - Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures are likely to be strongly volatile. Silver, platinum, and palladium futures are expected to reach new highs since listing. For instance, the silver AG2602 will attack resistance levels at 15800 and 16300 yuan/kg [3]. - Most base metal and energy futures are likely to be strongly volatile, such as copper, aluminum, and iron ore futures [4][5]. 2. Macro News and Trading Tips - In the "14th Five - Year Plan" starting year, the moderately loose monetary policy aims to promote economic growth and price recovery. Market institutions expect a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in interest rates next year [8]. - From January to November this year, the national fiscal revenue was 20.05 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The national tax revenue was 16.48 trillion yuan, a 1.8% increase; the securities trading stamp tax revenue was 185.5 billion yuan, a 70.7% increase [8]. - Hainan Free Trade Port officially launched the full - island customs closure operation on December 18 [9]. - The Fed still has 50 to 100 basis points of interest - rate cut space [9]. 3. Commodity Futures - Related Information - On December 17, the platinum futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit the daily limit again, and the palladium futures hit the daily limit for the first time. The lithium carbonate futures rose nearly 8% [9]. - The IEA reported that global coal demand increased by 0.5% in 2025, reaching a record 8.85 billion tons, but demand has entered a plateau [10]. - On December 17, the US oil futures rose 2.92% to $56.74 per barrel, and Brent crude futures rose 2.85% to $60.6 per barrel [10]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - Stock index futures: On December 17, the main contracts of various stock index futures showed a trend of first falling and then rising. For example, IF2512 closed at 4578.2 points, up 1.86% [12]. - Treasury bond futures: On December 17, the main contracts of treasury bond futures closed higher. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.63%, and the 10 - year main contract rose 0.10% [32]. - Gold futures: On December 17, the main contract AU2602 closed at 979.72 yuan/g, up 0.42%. It is expected to be strongly volatile in December [38]. - Silver futures: On December 17, the main contract AG2602 closed at 15512 yuan/kg, up 5.05%. It reached a new high since listing. It is expected to continue to rise and reach new highs [47]. - Platinum and palladium futures: On December 17, both platinum and palladium futures hit the daily limit. They are expected to continue to rise and reach new highs on December 18 [54][55]. - Other futures: Contracts such as copper, aluminum, and iron ore futures also had corresponding price movements on December 17, and their trends for December 18 were predicted [59][64][97].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon iron and manganese silicon markets are in a state of long - short sentiment game and wide - range fluctuations [1] - The trend intensity of silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0 [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of silicon iron 2603 is 5546, up 64 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 270,107 and an open interest of 251,350; silicon iron 2605 has a closing price of 5502, up 58, a trading volume of 19,577, and an open interest of 57,770. The closing price of manganese silicon 2603 is 5758, up 22, with a trading volume of 130,766 and an open interest of 276,107; manganese silicon 2605 has a closing price of 5796, up 20, a trading volume of 52,680, and an open interest of 163,270 [1] - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5200 yuan/ton; the price of silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5540 yuan/ton; the price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 43.0 yuan/ton degree; the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 800 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The spot - 03 futures price difference of silicon iron is - 346 yuan/ton, down 64; that of manganese silicon is - 218 yuan/ton, down 22. The near - far month price difference of silicon iron 2603 - 2605 is 44 yuan/ton, up 6; that of manganese silicon 2603 - 2605 is - 38 yuan/ton, up 2. The cross - variety price difference of manganese silicon 2603 - silicon iron 2603 is 212 yuan/ton, down 42; that of manganese silicon 2605 - silicon iron 2605 is 294 yuan/ton, down 38 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Product Price Information**: On December 17, the price of 72 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5050 - 5150 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton (down 50), and in Inner Mongolia 5200 yuan/ton. The price of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5600 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 silicon iron was 1020 - 1040 dollars/ton (down 10), and that of 75 was 1090 - 1120 dollars/ton (down 20~ - 10). The northern quotation of 6517 silicon manganese was 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton [2] - **Production Adjustment Information**: On December 17, a silicon iron plant in Baotou, Inner Mongolia, overhauled a 45000kva silicon iron furnace, reducing the daily output by about 120 tons. Two 72 silicon iron furnaces of a large factory in Gansu started to switch production, one to low - aluminum silicon iron and one to 97 silicon. A silicon iron plant in Zhongwei, Ningxia, planned to shut down 4 silicon iron furnaces on December 12 at 12:00, with an expected daily production reduction of about 350 tons. Qinghai Jinfeng planned to shut down 2 silicon iron furnaces on December 16, reducing the daily output by 70 - 80 tons [2][3] - **Manganese Ore Price Information**: UMK announced the quotation of manganese ore for China in January 2026: Mn36% South African lump was 4.15 dollars/ton degree, up 0.05 dollars/ton degree month - on - month. NMT announced the shipping price of manganese ore for China in January 2026, and the Mn36% (minimum) South African lump was reported at 4.15 dollars/ton degree, up 0.05 dollars/ton degree month - on - month [4] - **Steel Mill Procurement Information**: A steel mill in Zhejiang set the standard price of silicon manganese at 5716 yuan/ton (discount - based acceptance, tax - included, delivered to the factory), down 23 yuan/ton, and purchased 1200 tons. Zhongtian Iron and Steel in Changzhou finalized the purchase price of 75B silicon iron at 5710 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a volume of 300 tons. Jianlong Iron and Steel's silicon manganese tender prices in December were 5670 yuan/ton in Shanxi (purchasing 2600 tons), 5670 yuan/ton in Chengde (purchasing 2800 tons), 5820 yuan/ton in Jilin (purchasing 1200 tons), 5870 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang (purchasing 10800 tons), and 5770 yuan/ton in Fushun (purchasing 5300 tons). A steel mill in Jiangsu set the standard price of silicon manganese in December at 5750 yuan/ton (acceptance, tax - included, delivered to the factory), up 20 yuan/ton from November [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View - The report predicts that soybean meal may experience low - level fluctuations due to a slight decline in US soybeans, while soybean No.1 may show weak fluctuations under the influence of state reserve sales [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No.1 2601 closed at 4090 yuan/ton during the day session, down 12 yuan (-0.29%), and 4053 yuan/ton at night, down 39 yuan (-0.95%); DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2756 yuan/ton during the day, down 7 yuan (-0.25%), and 2746 yuan/ton at night, down 20 yuan (-0.72%); CBOT soybean 01 closed at 1058.5 cents/bushel, down 4.75 cents (-0.45%); CBOT soybean meal 03 closed at 301.8 dollars/short ton, down 4.5 dollars (-1.47%) [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot basis of soybean meal (43%) is M2605 + 370, with prices in different regions and time periods showing various changes, such as in Shandong, East China, and South China. Some prices are flat compared to the previous day, while others have small increases or decreases [1] - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 13.95 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared to 1.35 million tons per day two days ago. The inventory was 100.92 million tons per week on the previous trading day, compared to 104.55 million tons per week two days ago [1] **Macro and Industry News** - On December 17, 2025, CBOT soybean futures fell for the fourth consecutive day due to concerns about Chinese demand. Although there were new export deals announced, including 19.8 million tons sold to China and 12.5 million tons sold to unknown destinations in the 2025/26 season, the prices still closed lower [1][3] **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and the trend intensity of soybean No.1 is 0, referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the day of the report [3]