2026 年 1 月 21 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 螺纹钢：原料市场扰动，偏弱震荡 热轧卷板：原料市场扰动，偏弱震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2605 | 3,111 | -37 | -1.18 | | 期 货 | HC2605 | 3,276 | -32 | -0.97 | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2605 | 936,583 | 1,741,235 | 13,280 | | | HC2605 | 471,822 | 1,486,145 | -15,864 | | | | 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 前日价格 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） ...

Report Summary Investment Rating - The investment ratings for both the coke and coking coal industries are "Oscillating Weakly" under the dual influence of macro and micro factors [1]. Core View - The coke and coking coal markets are affected by both macro and micro factors, showing an oscillating and weakly downward trend [1]. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of JM2605 was 1124 yuan/ton, down 50.5 yuan/ton (-4.3%); the closing price of J2605 was 1673.5 yuan/ton, down 47.5 yuan/ton (-2.8%) [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: JM2605 had a trading volume of 1,088,191 lots, an open interest of 532,732 lots, and an open interest change of 29,998 lots; J2605 had a trading volume of 22,017 lots, an open interest of 38,429 lots, and an open interest change of 792 lots [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Most spot prices remained unchanged, except for the price of Mongolian 5 coking coal in Tangshan, which decreased by 9 yuan/ton to 1220 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of JM2605 in Shanxi increased by 50.5 yuan/ton to 167 yuan/ton; the basis of J2605 in Shanxi's quasi - first - grade delivered - to - factory price increased by 47.5 yuan/ton to - 141.5 yuan/ton; the spread between JM2605 and JM2609 remained unchanged at - 79.5 yuan/ton, and the spread between J2605 and J2609 increased by 2.5 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News - **CCI Index**: On January 20, the CCI metallurgical coal index showed that CCI Shanxi low - sulfur primary coking coal (S0.7) was 1608, CCI Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (S1.3) was 1260, and CCI Shanxi high - sulfur primary coking coal (S1.6) was 1249 [1]. - **Coking Coal Auction**: On January 19, the total online auction listing volume of coking coal was 294,000 tons, with a failure - to - sell rate of 1%, a 5% decrease from last Friday. The average premium was 33.15 yuan/ton. The market trading atmosphere was active, with most prices rising by 8 - 46 yuan/ton [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for coke is 0, and for coking coal is also 0 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE futures have continued to decline, with the upstream conducting low - price pre - sales and the mid - and downstream replenishing short positions. Inventory transfer is smooth and pressure is not significant. Spot short - term liquidity has tightened, and standard product production has continued to rise. The PE spot remains relatively firm, but after the decline in the futures market, trading has weakened significantly, and the basis has strengthened less than before. The profits of downstream products have been compressed, and they are resistant to high prices. The foreign market quotation has risen, and LL supplies are scarce. The long - term import profit has opened up, and importer transactions have increased. Downstream factories are mostly cautious and waiting. Geopolitical tensions may support the strength of the US dollar - denominated market [1]. - The price of crude oil at the raw material end has strengthened, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has not been released, the ethylene monomer segment has weakened, and the profits of the PE ethylene and ethane processes have been restored. The PE futures market has continued to rebound, with trading concentrated in the middle stream, and the downstream has not chased the rising market to replenish inventory. The demand for agricultural films in the near - end downstream has weakened, and the packaging film industry has maintained rigid demand. After the recent decline, the willingness of the mid - and downstream to hold inventory has weakened. The upstream has sold at discounted prices at the end of the year, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly, with the basis being weak. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang is gradually starting trial production. The maintenance plan in January has decreased month - on - month, and some FD has switched back to standard products. In the medium term, attention still needs to be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2605 yesterday was 6640, with a daily decline of 0.40%. The trading volume was 442,747, and the position increased by 9,748 [1]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of the 05 contract yesterday was - 110 (compared to - 97 the day before), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 24 (unchanged from the day before) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: In North China, the spot price yesterday was 6,530 yuan/ton (compared to 6,570 the day before); in East China, it was 6,700 yuan/ton (compared to 6,720 the day before); in South China, it was 6,700 yuan/ton (compared to 6,800 the day before) [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The futures market has continued to decline. The upstream has carried out low - price pre - sales, and the mid - and downstream have replenished short positions. Inventory transfer is smooth, and pressure is not significant. Spot short - term liquidity has tightened, and standard product production has continued to rise. The PE spot remains relatively firm, but trading has weakened significantly after the decline in the futures market, and the basis has strengthened less than before. The profits of downstream products have been compressed, and they are resistant to high prices. The foreign market quotation has risen, and LL supplies are scarce. The long - term import profit has opened up, and importer transactions have increased. Downstream factories are mostly cautious and waiting. Geopolitical tensions may support the strength of the US dollar - denominated market [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The price of crude oil at the raw material end has strengthened, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has not been released, the ethylene monomer segment has weakened, and the profits of the PE ethylene and ethane processes have been restored. The PE futures market has continued to rebound, with trading concentrated in the middle stream, and the downstream has not chased the rising market to replenish inventory. The demand for agricultural films in the near - end downstream has weakened, and the packaging film industry has maintained rigid demand. After the recent decline, the willingness of the mid - and downstream to hold inventory has weakened. The upstream has sold at discounted prices at the end of the year, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly, with the basis being weak. On the supply side, BASF Zhanjiang is gradually starting trial production. The maintenance plan in January has decreased month - on - month, and some FD has switched back to standard products. In the medium term, attention still needs to be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is - 1 [3]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 21 日 PP：排产低位维持，PP 利润暂修复有限 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 PP 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PP2605 | 6461 | -0.32% | 358242 | -4253 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -131 | | -152 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -31 | | -33 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 北 华 | 6300 | | 6300 | | | | 东 华 | 6330 | | 6330 | | | | 华 南 | 6450 | | 6450 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 盘面回落，上游预售压力不大，贸易商整体出货为主，基差持稳，上周后期成交氛围明显 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-01-21 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-01-21 所长 早读 地缘风险带来市场不确定性 观点分享： 昨日市场仍出现了非常剧烈的波动，日债暴跌叠加格林兰岛的地缘冲突最终导致欧美股 债汇三杀，vix 指数飙升，贵金属再创历史新高。昨日市场对日债长债出现了非常明显的抛 售，日本提前选举预期、扩张性财政叙事、寿险资金持续减持、以及疲弱的超长期国债拍卖 互相叠加踩踏，最终导致了市场疯狂的对于日本长债的抛售，日本 40 年期长债收益率历史 性突破 4%，20 年、30 年债收益率单日飙升逾 20 个基点，在这种环境下，日债的税率飙升 直接带崩了欧洲和美国，日本作为全球最大美债持有国之一，长端利率失控的风险外溢让全 球市场都出现了巨大的震动，长端美债也遭受了抛售潮，10 年期美债收益率攀升 8 个基点至 4.293%，欧债方面德债和法债也都均出现了长端收益率的上行。债券长端收益率飙升的风险 外溢，也导致了大量股票被抛售，昨晚欧股及美股均出现不同幅度下跌，市场的恐慌情绪叠 加美国对于格林兰岛武力控制威胁和欧洲议会的反击，最终导致了市场的股债汇三 ...

【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2602 | 1,710.0 | -0.25% | | 1,710 | 5,575 | -864 | 0.31 | | 0.31 | | | EC2604 | 1,112.6 | -1.44% | | 30,586 | 41,811 | -77 | 0.73 | | 0.73 | | | | 本期 | | | 2026/1/19 | | 单位 | | 周涨幅 | | | | SCFIS：欧洲航线 | | | 1,956.39 | | | 点 | | 8.9% | | | 运价 | SCFIS： 美西航线 | | | 1,323.98 | | | 点 | | 5.9% | | | 指数 | | 本期 | | | 2025/1/9 | | 单位 | | 双周涨幅 | | | | SC ...

2026年01月21日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 豆粕：隔夜美豆微跌，连粕或震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面调整 | 2 | | 玉米：有所回调 | 4 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 5 | | 棉花：震荡偏强20260121 | 6 | | 鸡蛋：情绪转弱 | 8 | | 生猪：现货转弱，旺季预期降低 | 9 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 21 日 豆粕：隔夜美豆微跌，连粕或震荡 豆一：现货稳定，盘面调整 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 商 品 研 究 期货研究 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4338 +16（+0.37%） | 42 ...

2026 年 1 月 21 日 | | | | | 期指：外部扰动，内部支撑 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | | maolei@gtht.com | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变动 | 持仓量 | 变动 | | 沪深300 | 4718.9 | ↓0.33 | | 6719.6 | | | | | | IF2602 | 4710.6 | ↓0.44 | -8.28 | 366.4 | 25937 | ↑2191 | 39695 | ↑1118 | | IF2603 | 4708.6 | ↓0.39 | -10.28 | 1126.9 | 79866 | ↑6821 | 179532 | ↑398 | | IF2606 | 4674 | ↓0.25 | -44.88 | 274.5 ...

2026年01月21日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：关税预期波动 | 2 | | 铜：市场避险，价格承压 | 4 | | 锌：小幅下跌 | 6 | | 铅：海外库存增加，价格承压 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：下方有支撑 | 10 | | 氧化铝：承压下行 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：补涨行情或许发动 | 12 | | 钯：震荡向上 | 12 | | 镍：印尼言论反复扰动情绪，镍价宽幅震荡运行 | 14 | | 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 21 日 黄金：再创新高 白银：关税预期波动 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | - ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore prices are weakening, and attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm of downstream enterprises [2][5]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil are experiencing weak fluctuations due to disturbances in the raw material market [2][10]. - The cost expectation of ferrosilicon is rising, and it is in wide-range fluctuations; the demand-side expectation of silicomanganese is tightening, and it is also in wide-range fluctuations [2][14]. - Coke and coking coal are affected by both macro and micro factors, showing weak fluctuations [2][17]. - The market sentiment of thermal coal is weak, and the price will have a short-term weak adjustment [21]. - Logs are in a weak and volatile state [23]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2605 futures contract was 789.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan or 0.57%. The positions decreased by 29,929 hands. Imported ore prices generally declined, with a maximum drop of 5 yuan/ton [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 20, the 1-year and 5-year LPR remained unchanged from the previous month [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the RB2605 futures contract was 3,111 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan or 1.18%; the HC2605 was 3,276 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan or 0.97%. Spot prices in most regions declined, with a maximum drop of 30 yuan/ton [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: BHP's first-half iron ore production reached a record high, and it accepted a partial price cut in the annual contract negotiation with China. On January 19, an explosion occurred at Baotou Steel's plate plant, affecting production. Steel production, inventory, and demand data for January 15 and December 2025 were released, and the government will implement export license management for some steel products [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of rebar and hot-rolled coil are both 0, indicating a neutral trend [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the ferrosilicon 2603 and 2605 contracts were 5,552 yuan/ton and 5,528 yuan/ton respectively, with the former up 4 yuan and the latter down 8 yuan. The silicomanganese 2603 and 2605 contracts were 5,760 yuan/ton and 5,798 yuan/ton respectively, both down [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 20, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions showed certain changes. In 2025, the cumulative import volume of manganese ore increased by 12.04% year-on-year, and the import volume in December increased significantly. The export volume of ferrosilicon to various regions in 2025 was announced, and some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were determined [15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are both 0, indicating a neutral trend [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the JM2605 coking coal futures contract was 1,124 yuan/ton, down 50.5 yuan or 4.3%; the J2605 coke contract was 1,673.5 yuan/ton, down 47.5 yuan or 2.8%. Spot prices were mostly stable [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 20, the CCI metallurgical coal index was announced, and the coking coal online auction on January 19 had a low failure rate and mostly rising prices [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are both 0, indicating a neutral trend [20]. Thermal Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of thermal coal in production areas, ports, and overseas markets showed different degrees of decline. The January long - term agreement prices also decreased [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In December 2025, the national raw coal production increased month - on - month, and the annual output reached a new high. The coal import volume in December far exceeded expectations, and Indonesia's expected coal production quota in 2026 will be tightened [22]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the 2603, 2605, and 2607 log futures contracts all declined, with daily declines of 0.9%, 1.0%, and 0.8% respectively. The prices of most log varieties in the spot market remained stable [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's December RatingDog comprehensive PMI was 51.3, indicating further growth in the total production and operation of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025 [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral trend [26].