Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the futures and options markets across multiple sectors including agriculture, energy and chemicals, black commodities, and metals on January 30, 2026. It offers detailed data on closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest for various commodity futures, as well as option trading volumes, put - call ratios (PCR), and option quantitative indicators. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Agricultural Products - **Futures Market Statistics**: Most agricultural futures showed declines. For example, corn (c2603) closed at 2271 with a - 10 decline, and cotton (cf2605) dropped 240 to 14670. Only红枣 (cj2605) and生猪 (lh2603) had price increases, rising 55 to 8950 and 55 to 11220 respectively [1]. - **Options Market Statistics**: Option trading volumes and PCRs varied. For instance, the trading volume of corn options decreased, while the PCR of菜粕 options increased significantly [3]. - **Option Quantitative Indicators**: The implied volatility and other indicators also showed different trends. For example, the implied volatility of豆粕 increased by 0.72% to 13.4%, and the 60 - day quantile was 91.67% [4]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Futures Market Statistics**: Most energy and chemical futures declined. For example, PTA (ta2605) fell 62 to 5270, and原油 (sc2603) dropped 1.7 to 470.8. Only PVC (v2605) had an increase, rising 168 to 5063 [5]. - **Options Market Statistics**: Option trading volumes and PCRs had diverse changes. The trading volume of PTA options increased significantly, and the PCR of PVC options decreased [6][7]. - **Option Quantitative Indicators**: The implied volatility and other indicators changed. For example, the implied volatility of原油 increased by 11.55% to 60.78%, and the 60 - day quantile was 100.0% [8]. 3.3 Black Commodities - **Futures Market Statistics**: Most black commodity futures declined. For example,铁矿石 (i2605) fell 7.0 to 791.5, and螺纹钢 (rb2605) dropped 29 to 3128. The trading volume of动力煤 was 0 [9]. - **Options Market Statistics**: Option trading volumes and PCRs changed. For example, the trading volume of铁矿石 options increased slightly, and the PCR of螺纹钢 options decreased [9]. - **Option Quantitative Indicators**: The implied volatility and other indicators showed different trends. For example, the implied volatility of铁矿石 increased by 0.17% to 18.14%, and the 60 - day quantile was 86.67% [10]. 3.4 Metals - **Futures Market Statistics**: All metal futures declined. For example,黄金 (au2604) dropped 87.7 to 1161.42, and白银 (ag2604) fell 2950 to 27941 [11]. - **Options Market Statistics**: Option trading volumes and PCRs varied. For example, the trading volume of白银 options increased significantly, and the PCR of碳酸锂 options changed [12]. - **Option Quantitative Indicators**: The implied volatility and other indicators changed. For example, the implied volatility of白银 decreased by 2.71% to 101.09%, and the 60 - day quantile was 98.33% [13].

2026 年 2 月 2 日 股指期货将偏弱震荡 黄金、白银、铂、钯、碳酸锂期货将 震荡偏弱 焦煤、玻璃期货将震荡偏强 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： | 期货品 | 主力合 | 趋势 | 阻力位 | | | | 支撑位 | | 重点备注 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | 约 | | | | | | | | | | | 股指 | IF2603 | 偏 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The price of aluminum is expected to have increased volatility, and attention should be paid to the trend of the equity market; the price of alumina is expected to converge in a volatile manner; the price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] - The global AI computing power construction is booming, and transformers have become a core "hot commodity". Chinese factories are operating at full capacity, and overseas orders are scheduled until 2027. AI computing power and UHV high - end products are becoming new engines for industrial growth [3] - Trump has nominated Wash to head the Federal Reserve. Wash advocates balance - sheet reduction, which creates policy tension with Trump's demand to lower borrowing costs. If Wash takes office, the coordination of his and Treasury Secretary Bessent's fiscal and monetary policies will be the key to reshaping the market trend [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum - **Futures Market Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24,560, down 1,030 from T - 1; the LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 3,136, down 94 from T - 1. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract and LME Aluminum 3M also showed corresponding changes [1] - **Market Spread and Arbitrage**: The LME Aluminum cash - 3M spread was - 26.66, and the cost of buying the near - month and selling the consecutive - first inter - period arbitrage was - 10.27 [1] - **Enterprise Profit and Loss and Inventory**: The profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum enterprises was 8,548.30, with a decrease of 197.59 from T - 1. The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 800,000 tons, with no change from T - 1 [1] Alumina - **Futures Market Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,768, down 48 from T - 1. The trading volume and open interest also changed accordingly [1] - **Market Spread and Arbitrage**: The near - month to consecutive - first contract spread was - 131, and the cost of buying the near - month and selling the consecutive - first inter - period arbitrage was 37.57 [1] - **Enterprise Profit and Loss and Price**: The profit and loss of Shanxi alumina enterprises was - 167, and the average domestic alumina price decreased by 105 from T - 1 [1] Aluminum Alloy - **Futures Market Data**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 22,820, down 1,030 from T - 1. The trading volume and open interest also had corresponding changes [1] - **Market Spread and Spot Premium**: The near - month to consecutive - first contract spread was - 80, and the spot premium was - 40 [1] - **Enterprise Profit and Inventory**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 376, and the total inventory of three places was 41,438 [1] Other Information - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of aluminum is 1, alumina is - 1, and aluminum alloy is 0 [3]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 2 日 豆粕：盘面震荡 豆一：盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 1 月 30 日 CBOT 大豆日评：美元反弹导致大豆下跌。北京德润林 2026 年 1 月 31 日消息：周五，芝 加哥期货交易所（CBOT）大豆期货收盘下跌，主要原因是美元指数反弹以及巴西大豆收割进度加快。周五 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4382 | -33（-0.75%） | 4388 -8（-0.18%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2767 -31 | （-1.11%） | -14（-0.50%） 2762 | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1064.25 | -8.0（-0.75%） | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 293.6 | -2.4（-0.8 ...

2026 年 2 月 2 日 碳酸锂：容量电价出台，盘面或底部企稳 | 邵婉嫕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘鸿儒 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023466 | liuhongru@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 148,200 | -16,620 | -33,320 | 2,000 | 29,380 | 66,800 | | | | 2605合约（成交量） | 552,668 | 31,334 | 209,863 | -38,855 | -136,096 | 494,753 | | | | 2605合约（持仓量） | 372,601 | -29,746 | -66,127 | -43,532 | -139,744 | 279,381 | | | ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-02-02 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-02-02 所长 早读 为何贵金属大跌？ 观点分享： 周五，贵金属经历了一场惊心动魄的大波动。白银一度跌超 30%，创下 1980 年 3 月以 来的最大单日跌幅；黄金一度跌 11%，为 1980 年 1 月以来最惨重的一天。 其导火索是美联 储人事预期的突变：特朗普提名凯文·沃什为美联储主席，市场解读为鹰派转向，动摇此前 "央行独立性削弱—货币贬值—实物资产永涨"的叙事逻辑； 另外前期涨幅过大和高杠杆踩踏则是下跌的放大器：1 月黄金最高涨幅 30%、白银近 70%，价格处于历史高位，RSI 超买，交易拥挤，获利盘巨大。 再有交易所风控加码，高杠杆多头资金压力陡增，下跌触发连环止损→被动平仓→价格 续跌的恶性循环。后期贵金属走势将如何发展？我们的相关研究员将会持续关注和分享。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂 | ★★★★ | 碳酸锂：基本面与市场预期仍然偏强，价格下方空间较为有限。一方面，短期供需偏紧且现 货市场表现坚挺。上周 SMM 行业 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2][3][4] 2. Core View - The report predicts that iron ore will operate in a volatile manner [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of I2605 was 791.5 yuan/ton, down 7.0 yuan/ton or 0.88%. The yesterday's position was 541,228 hands, with a decrease of 14,164 hands [2] - **Spot Prices**: Among imported ores, the price of PB (61.5%) was 794.0 yuan/ton, down 6.0 yuan/ton; the price of Jinbuba (61%) was 743.0 yuan/ton, down 9.0 yuan/ton; the price of Chaote (56.5%) was 680.0 yuan/ton, down 4.0 yuan/ton. Among domestic ores, the prices of Hanxing (66%) and Laiwu (65%) remained unchanged at 956.0 yuan/ton and 874.0 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of I2605 against Chaote increased by 2.7 yuan/ton to 94.3 yuan/ton, while the basis against Jinbuba decreased by 2.7 yuan/ton to 70.6 yuan/ton. The spread of I2605 - I2609 decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton to 19.0 yuan/ton, and the spread of I2609 - I2701 decreased by 1.0 yuan/ton to 12.5 yuan/ton. The spread of Carajás - PB increased by 6.0 yuan/ton to 90.0 yuan/ton, the spread of PB - Jinbuba increased by 3.0 yuan/ton to 51.0 yuan/ton, and the spread of PB - Chaote decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 114.0 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - China's industrial enterprises above designated size saw a 5.3% year - on - year increase in profits in December and a 0.6% increase for the whole year [2] - Many real estate enterprises are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real estate enterprises need to regularly report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in their headquarters city [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is [-2, 2], where -2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [3]

【基本面跟踪】 商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 02 日 铜：等待指引，价格震荡 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 103,680 | -4.98% | 103190 | -0.47% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 13,071 | -4.25% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 1,476,870 | 606,369 | 657,539 | -29,840 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 51,298 | -52,697 | 333,000 | 1,459 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 156,851 | 5,223 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 174,975 | -1,100 | 23.89% ...

【新闻】 提名沃什，特朗普：他会是最伟大的美联储主席之一，无需白宫施压，沃什自会降息。（华尔街见闻） 特朗普钦点美联储新主席，几位落选热门候选人喊话：利率太高该降了。（华尔街见闻） 铅趋势强度：0 2026 年 02 月 02 日 铅：供需双弱，价格震荡 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16865 | -1.86% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1995 | -0.77% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 122859 | 34910 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 10642 | -4770 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 56480 | -2608 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 171261 | 3394 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | 50 | 5 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Platinum: Be vigilant about panic selling. - Palladium: Follow the weak adjustment [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price Information**: - Platinum futures 2606 closed at 630.55 with a -11.70% decline; gold - exchange platinum at 638.39 with a -9.31% decline; New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) at 2178.20 with a -17.40% decline; London spot platinum (previous day) at 2180.80 with a -17.38% decline. - Palladium futures 2606 closed at 464.05 with a -11.88% decline; RMB spot palladium at 484.00 with a -3.78% decline; New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) at 1701.00 with a -16.41% decline; London spot palladium (previous day) at 1711.00 with a -14.60% decline [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position Information**: - Guangdong platinum trading volume was 41,775 kg (up 12,277 kg from the previous day), and the position was 33,860 kg (down 2,505 kg). NYMEX platinum trading volume was 88,712 kg (up 24,026 kg), and the position was 99,945 kg (down 1,281 kg). - Guangdong palladium trading volume was 20,005 kg (up 2,817 kg), and the position was 12,615 kg (down 518 kg). NYMEX palladium trading volume was 36,973 kg (up 7,101 kg), and the position was 49,380 kg (down 2,333 kg) [1]. - **ETF and Inventory Information**: - Platinum ETF position (ounces, previous day) was 3,364,010 (up 39,842). Palladium ETF position (ounces, previous day) was 1,222,741 (up 2,231). - NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces, previous day) was 655,182 (unchanged), and NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces, previous day) was 224,021 (unchanged) [1]. - **Spread Information**: - PT9995 to PT2606 spread was 7.84 (up 18.04 from the previous day); Guangdong platinum 2606 contract to 2610 contract spread was 5.05 (down 3.00); buying Guangdong platinum 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage cost was 7.74 (down 0.99). - RMB spot palladium price to PD2606 spread was 19.95 (up 43.55); Guangdong palladium 2606 contract to 2610 contract spread was 5.05 (up 3.05); buying Guangdong palladium 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage cost was 5.76 (down 0.75) [1]. - **Exchange Rate Information**: - The US dollar index was 97.12 (up 1.42%); the US dollar to RMB (CNY spot) was 6.95 (up 0.09%); the US dollar to offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 6.95 (up 0.10%); the US dollar to RMB (6M forward) was 6.87 (down 0.13%) [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - The US federal government has entered a technical and partial "shutdown" state. - An informed source said that talks between Russia and the US have started in Miami, USA. - SpaceX has applied to deploy one million satellites to build an orbital AI data center network. - According to Interfax, Russia has lifted the gasoline export ban for producers. - Huang Renxun said that he will definitely participate in the current investment in OpenAI, which may be the largest - scale investment in the company's history. - China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that the manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decline from the previous month. - Trump said that negotiations regarding Greenland have started, and he believes that the negotiations are basically in agreement and will eventually reach a deal, emphasizing that it is a "very important" agreement from a national security perspective [4]. 3. Trend Intensity - Platinum trend intensity: -1; Palladium trend intensity: -1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, where -2 indicates the most bearish and 2 indicates the most bullish [3].