Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report mainly presents the fundamental data, market trends, and production - inventory situation of asphalt. It shows that the asphalt market has price fluctuations, changes in trading volume and positions, and different trends in production and inventory [1][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price of BU2509 was 3,573 yuan/ton, down 2.32% daily, and the night - session closing price was 3,549 yuan/ton, down 0.67%. The closing price of BU2510 was 3,556 yuan/ton, down 2.60% daily, and the night - session closing price was 3,530 yuan/ton, down 0.73% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Positions**: The trading volume of BU2509 was 169,138 lots, with an increase of 51,344 lots, and the position was 93,052 lots, a decrease of 23,728 lots. The trading volume of BU2510 was 140,311 lots, with an increase of 69,332 lots, and the position was 211,967 lots, a decrease of 5,741 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total asphalt warehouse receipts in the market were 81,140 lots, with no change [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis (Shandong - 09) was 212 yuan/ton, with a change of 85 yuan compared to the previous day. The 09 - 10 inter - period spread was 17 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan. The Shandong - South China spread was 195, with a change of 10, and the East China - South China spread was 190 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,785 yuan/ton, with no change, and the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,780 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. - **Operating and Inventory Rates**: As of August 4, 2025, the refinery operating rate was 34.40%, down 0.51% from July 31, and the refinery inventory rate was 25.74%, down 0.13% from July 31 [1]. 3.2 Market Trends - **Trend Intensity**: The asphalt trend intensity is - 1, indicating a weak bearish sentiment [8]. - **Graphical Trends**: The BU - SC is in high - level shock, the South China warehouse receipts are stable, the asphalt index total position shows a certain trend, the Shandong basis is generally strong, the asphalt follows the oil price to fluctuate within a range, and the regional spot price spread fluctuates and stabilizes [2][11][13]. 3.3 Production and Inventory - **Production**: From July 29 to August 4, 2025, the domestic asphalt weekly output was 56.7 tons, a decrease of 1.4 tons (2.4%) compared to the previous week, and an increase of 12.4 tons (28%) compared to the same period last year. The cumulative output from January to July was 1,927.1 tons, an increase of 163.2 tons (9.2%) compared to the same period last year [14]. - **Inventory**: As of August 4, 2025, the inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample refinery warehouses was 72.2 tons, a decrease of 0.4% compared to July 31. The inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 187.7 tons, an increase of 0.6% compared to July 31 [14].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 08 月 05 日 工业硅：弱势格局 多晶硅：短期情绪降温，关注消息刺激 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2509收盘价（元/吨） | 8,360 | -140 | -555 | 350 | | | | Si2509成交量（手） | 187,014 | -38,163 | | -496,700 -1,009,528 | | | | Si2509持仓量（手） | 176,164 | -18,176 | -102,904 | -204,676 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2509收盘价（元/吨） | 48,720 | -480 | -685 | - | | | | PS2509成交量（手） | 175,335 | -207,880 | -406,125 | - | | | | PS2509持仓量（手） ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In Q2 2025, the production and transportation volume of the four major iron ore mines increased significantly, with a year - on - year growth of 3.5% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of nearly 20%, basically catching up to last year's level in the first half of the year [1][5]. - The trend of "increase in mainstream mines and decrease in non - mainstream mines" was further reflected in Q2, and the dominant position of mainstream mines in Australia and Brazil in the global seaborne iron ore market may be further strengthened [2][44]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Overview of the Four Major Mines' Q2 2025 Operations - The total production/transportation volume of the four major mines in Q2 2025 was 293 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3.5% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of nearly 20%. The significant volume boost by BHP and Fortescue in June was the main driver of the excellent performance in Q2 [1][5]. - In the first half of 2025, only Rio Tinto's production was still significantly behind last year's level. BHP and Fortescue both raised their production and transportation targets for FY26, indicating confidence in their supply chain efficiency and new production capacity [6]. 2. Key Points of the Four Major Mines' Quarterly Reports 2.1 Vale - **Overall Situation**: In Q2, Vale's iron ore production was 83.599 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. Sales volume was 77.346 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. The C1 cash cost was 22.2 US dollars/wet ton, a year - on - year decrease of 10.8%. The AIC was 55.3 US dollars/wet ton, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6% [8][12][13]. - **Operation Details**: The northern system's Q2 production reached 41.222 million tons, a record high since 2021. The southeast system performed well, with the fourth processing line of Brucutu driving production to a new high. The southern system's production declined due to construction issues. The company plans to conduct maintenance on the São Luis pellet plant in Q3. Pellet sales in Q2 were about 7.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16% [15][16][19]. 2.2 Rio Tinto - **Overall Situation**: In Q2, Rio Tinto's Pilbara mine production was 83.743 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%, reaching a new high since 2018. The shipping volume was 79.887 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. The company maintained its Pilbara shipping volume guidance range of 323 - 338 million tons but expected the actual volume to be closer to the lower limit [22][23]. - **Operation Details**: The Western Range project was put into production in March and is expected to reach full production by the end of 2025. The Brockman Syncline 1 project is planned to be put into production in 2027, and the Hope Downs - 2 project started construction in June. The first shipment of the Guinea Simandou iron ore project is still expected in November, with an estimated shipment of 50 - 100 million tons in 2025 [25][27]. 2.3 BHP - **Overall Situation**: In Q2, BHP's equity production was 70.339 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. Sales volume was 69.843 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. In FY2025, the full - year equity production was about 263 million tons, higher than the previous guidance range. The company announced an upward - adjusted equity production guidance range of 258 - 269 million tons for FY2026 [31][32]. - **Operation Details**: In the Western Australia WAIO mine, the improvement of logistics efficiency and the full - production of the South Slope project contributed to the production increase. In the Brazilian Samarco, the production continued to rise with the help of the capacity ramp - up of the No. 2 concentrator [34][35]. 2.4 Fortescue - **Overall Situation**: In Q2, the company's iron ore shipping volume was 55.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. In FY2025, the full - year shipping volume was 198.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. The C1 cost of Pilbara hematite in Q2 was 16.29 US dollars/wet ton, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 7.1%. The company announced a shipping volume guidance range of 195 - 205 million tons and a C1 cost guidance range of 17.50 - 18.50 US dollars/wet ton for FY2026 [37][38]. - **Operation Details**: The shipping volume of the Iron Bridge project in Q2 was 2.4 million tons, and the full - year volume in FY2025 was 7.1 million tons. The company aims to reach full production of 22 million tons/year in FY2028 [41]. 3. Summary and Future Outlook - In Q2, the four major mines made efforts to increase production. Rio Tinto and Vale contributed over 7 million tons of year - on - year incremental production. - The trend of "increase in mainstream mines and decrease in non - mainstream mines" was further strengthened. From January to June 2025, the global seaborne iron ore shipment volume decreased slightly year - on - year, while the shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, and their share in the global market reached 83.3% [44].

| 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 2025/8/4 | 莫骁雄 | 王蒙 | 李先飞 | Z0012691 | Z0002529 | Z0019413 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixianfei@gtht.com | moxiaoxiong@gtht.com | wangrong2@gtht.com | 色及贵金属组 | 张再宇 | 王宗源(联系人) | 刘雨萱 | Z0021479 | F03142619 | Z0020476 | | | | | | | liuyuxuan@gtht.com | zhangzaiyu@gtht.com | wangzongyuan@gtht.com | 黄金 (AU) | 今天 | 上月 | 前一交易日 | 上周 | | | | | | | | | | 指标名称 | 2025/8/1 | 2025/7/28 | 2025/7/7 | 202 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 8 月 4 日 国债、地方债、金融债券利息增值税恢复 风险提示： 的潜在影响 唐立 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 Tangli2@gtht.com 王笑 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0013736 Wangxiao2@gtht.com 虞堪 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 yukan@gtht.com 报告导读： ◼ 摘要： 财政部、税务总局发布《关于国债等债券利息收入增值税政策的公告》，自 2025 年 8 月 8 日起， 对在该日期之后（含当日）新发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券的利息收入，恢复征收增值税。 对在该日期之前已发行的国债、地方政府债券、金融债券(包含在 2025 年 8 月 8 日之后续发行的部 分）的利息收入，继续免征增值税直至债券到期。上述金融债券，是指依法在中华人民共和国境内设 立的金融机构法人在全国银行间和交易所债券市场发行的、按约定还本付息并由金融机构持有的有价 证券。 该政策出台后我们需要注意相关债券现券以及国债期货可能的特征变动，同时我们需要留意不同 类型的投资机构面临的潜在可能选择。 存量债券免税延续下老券短期是否会更受青睐，同 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Metals and Minerals - Gold, Silver, Zinc, Tin, Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Iron Ore, Logs: Negative or Weak Outlook [-1] [2] [24] - Copper, Lead, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Carbonate Lithium, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Steam Coal: Neutral Outlook [0] [12] [18] Energy - Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Negative Outlook [-1] [4] Chemicals - PTA, MEG, Rubber, Synthetic Rubber, LLDPE, PP, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Methanol, Urea, Styrene, Soda Ash, PVC: Negative or Weak Outlook [-1] [2] [4] Agricultural and Livestock - Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal, Soybean, Corn, Sugar, Cotton, Egg, Live Pig, Peanut: Varying Degrees of Outlook [-1, 0] [4] Others - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Negative Outlook [-1] [4] 2. Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market, including their price trends, fundamental data, and macro - industry news. The trends of different commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic data, and geopolitical events. For example, the weak non - farm payroll data in the US has led to increased expectations of interest rate cuts, which has an impact on precious metals and other commodities [7] [12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Non - farm data is weak, and the trend strength is - 1. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot have shown certain fluctuations, with some contracts having positive night - trading gains [2] [6]. - **Silver**: It has fallen from a high level, and the trend strength is - 1. The prices of domestic and international silver futures and spot have also fluctuated, with some contracts having negative daily gains [2] [6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The spot premium is firm, which limits price declines. The trend strength is 0. Macro - economic data and industry events such as project evaluations in Peru and tariff policies in the US have an impact on the copper market [12] [14]. - **Zinc**: It is in a downward oscillation, and the trend strength is - 1. The prices of zinc futures and spot have declined, and inventory data has also changed [15]. - **Lead**: Inventory reduction limits price drops, and the trend strength is 0. The prices of lead futures and spot have shown little change, and inventory has decreased [18]. - **Tin**: It is in a range - bound oscillation, and the trend strength is - 1. The prices of tin futures and spot have fluctuated, and inventory data has changed [20] [21]. - **Aluminum**: The center of gravity has shifted downward. Alumina is in continuous inventory accumulation, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is - 1 [25] [27]. - **Nickel**: The multi - empty game has intensified, and nickel prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The prices of nickel futures and related products in the industrial chain have fluctuated [28] [29]. - **Stainless Steel**: It has returned to fundamentals, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level. The trend strength is 0. The prices of stainless - steel futures and spot have shown little change [29]. Energy - Related Commodities - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The sentiment has been realized, and they are in a wide - range oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The prices of coke and coking - coal futures and spot have changed, and inventory and position data are also provided [54] [55]. - **Steam Coal**: The daily consumption has recovered, and it is oscillating and stabilizing. The trend strength is 0. The prices of steam - coal futures and spot in different regions are reported, and position data is also given [59] [61]. Chemical Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply - side disturbances still exist, and wide - range oscillations may continue. The trend strength is 0. The prices of carbonate - lithium futures and spot have fluctuated, and market data such as trading volume and open interest are provided [34]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is in a weak pattern. The trend strength is - 1. The prices of industrial - silicon futures and spot have declined, and inventory data has changed [37] [38]. - **Polysilicon**: The short - term sentiment continues to cool down. The trend strength is - 1. The prices of polysilicon futures and related products in the photovoltaic industry have fluctuated [38]. - **PTA**: The trend is weak, and attention should be paid to positive spreads in monthly differentials. The trend strength is not explicitly stated but is implied as weak [67]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend remains weak. The trend strength is not explicitly stated but is implied as weak [67]. Agricultural and Livestock Commodities - **Palm Oil**: With the ebb of macro and crude - oil factors, wait for low - level long - position building. The trend strength is not explicitly stated [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: It is mainly in an oscillatory adjustment, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US trade agreement. The trend strength is not explicitly stated [4]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Hold short positions as appropriate, and it may continue to be weak. The trend strength is - 1 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold: Non - farm payroll data weakened, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][9] - Silver: Fell from a high, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][9] - Copper: Firm spot premium restricts price decline, and the trend strength is 0 [2][13] - Zinc: Oscillated downward, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][16] - Lead: Declining inventory restricts price drop, and the trend strength is 0 [2][17] - Tin: Traded in a range, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][23] - Aluminum: The price center moved down, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][26] - Alumina: Inventory continued to accumulate, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][26] - Cast aluminum alloy: Followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][26] - Nickel: Intensified long - short game, with nickel prices narrowly oscillating, and the trend strength is 0 [2][32] - Stainless steel: Macro factors faded, and prices returned to fundamentals, with steel prices oscillating at a low level, and the trend strength is 0 [2][32] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 yesterday was 770.72, with a daily increase of 0.06%, and the night - session closing price was 781.12, with a night - session increase of 1.33%. Shanghai Silver 2510 closed at 8918 yesterday, down 0.98%, and the night - session closing price was 8994.00, up 0.80% [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: US non - farm payrolls in July increased by only 73,000, far lower than expected, and the data for the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The Fed was divided over the employment situation [6][8] Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract yesterday was 78,400, up 0.46%, and the night - session closing price was 78170, down 0.29% [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: Weak US non - farm employment data led to a sharp rise in interest - rate cut expectations. Peru is evaluating 134 mining projects with an expected investment of $6 billion. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products starting August 1 [11][13] Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22320, down 0.11%, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic - disk closed at 2729.5, down 1.18% [14] - **News**: The deputy governor of the People's Bank of China said that the effect of monetary policy in supporting the real economy was obvious in the first half of the year [15] Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16735, unchanged, and the LME Lead 3M electronic - disk closed at 1974, up 0.23% [17] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Lead futures inventory decreased by 2412 tons to 59948 tons, and LME Lead inventory decreased by 1175 tons to 275325 tons [17] Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 264,950, down 0.13%, and the night - session closing price was 266,370, up 0.80% [20] - **Macro and Industry News**: OPEC + agreed in principle to significantly increase production again in September [21] Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20510, and the closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3162 [24] - **Comprehensive News**: China's imports and exports in June all achieved positive year - on - year growth [26] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 119,770, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,840 [28] - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats. Some nickel - iron smelting projects in Indonesia have suspended production due to losses [28][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading enthusiasm in the commodity options market has declined, with implied volatility falling along with trading volume. The actual volatility of most varieties remains at a relatively high level, and the decline rate of implied volatility is gradually slowing down. Additionally, the fluctuations in futures prices and the spread of hot - spot varieties have increased commodity arbitrage opportunities [5]. - The near - month options contracts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will expire on Thursday. The trading volume and open - interest ratios of the call options of the double - silicon varieties continue to increase, and the skew is also rising in a high - level oscillation. It is advisable to consider buying a bull spread portfolio for short - term speculation [5]. - The skew center of the black sector options has declined, and the implied volatility is at a high level, but the premium space compared with the actual volatility is limited. One can consider selling out - of - the - money call options and buying out - of - the - money put options for a skew regression arbitrage strategy, while paying attention to appropriate Delta - neutral hedging. The arbitrage space for rebar options is relatively large [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The trading volume of the overall market decreased by 0.45%, while the open interest increased by 0.21%. Among different sectors, the trading volume of agricultural products increased by 0.68%, energy and chemical decreased by 0.19%, black decreased by 0.14%, precious metals decreased by 2.76%, and non - ferrous and new energy decreased by 0.98%. The open interest of agricultural products increased by 0.09%, energy and chemical increased by 0.29%, black increased by 0.21%, precious metals increased by 0.48%, and non - ferrous and new energy increased by 0.25% [6]. 3.2 Commodity - Specific Option Data - **Corn Options**: The trading volume and open interest of call and put options showed different changes. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew also decreased [18][19]. - **Soybean Meal Options**: The trading volume decreased, while the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew also decreased [20]. - **Rapeseed Meal Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew also decreased [22]. - **Palm Oil Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased significantly [23]. - **Soybean Oil Options**: The trading volume and open interest showed mixed changes. The implied volatility of at - the - money options increased slightly, and the skew decreased [24]. - **Rapeseed Oil Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased [25]. - **Peanut Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased slightly, and the skew increased [26]. - **Yellow Soybean No. 1 Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew increased significantly [27]. - **Yellow Soybean No. 2 Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew increased [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [29]. - **Styrene Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [30]. - **Sugar Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased significantly [31]. - **Cotton Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [32]. - **PTA Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [33]. - **PX Options**: The trading volume and open interest showed significant changes. The implied volatility of at - the - money options had some fluctuations, and the skew had some changes [34]. - **Caustic Soda Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [35]. - **Rubber Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased slightly. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [36]. - **BR Rubber Options**: The trading volume decreased significantly, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased [37]. - **Polyethylene Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased [38]. - **Polypropylene Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased [39]. - **Methanol Options**: The trading volume decreased significantly, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [40]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas Options**: The trading volume decreased slightly, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased [41]. - **PVC Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased significantly, and the skew decreased [42]. - **Crude Oil Options**: The trading volume and open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options increased slightly, and the skew decreased [43]. - **Iron Ore Options**: The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money options decreased, and the skew decreased significantly [44].

2025 年 8 月 4 日 本周热点前瞻 2025-08-04 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 声明 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成具体业务或 产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作出投资决定并自主 承担投资风险，不应凭借本报告进行具体操作。 【本周重点关注】 8 月 7 日 16:00，中国人民银行将公布 7 月外汇储备和黄金储备。 欧元区8月Sentix投资者信心指数 点评：8月4日16:30，经济研究机构Sentix将公布欧元区8月Sentix投资者信心指数，预期欧元区8月Sentix 投资者信心指数为8%，前值为4.5%。 美国6月工厂订单 点评：8月4日22:00，美国商务部将公布6月工厂订单，预期美国6月工厂订单月率为-5%，前值为8.2%。 8 月 8 日-15 日 16:00，中国人民银行将公布 7 月金融统计数据报告、7 月社会融资规模 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, paper pulp, methanol, urea, styrene, PVC: Trend is weak or trending down [-1] [8] [12] - PP,烧碱,纯碱, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral [0] [37] [42] [66] - 集运指数（欧线）: Suggest holding short positions, may continue to be weak [25] [75] Core Views - With the approaching deadline of the peace agreement on August 8, Trump's threat of secondary sanctions and tariffs on countries doing business with Russia may impact the oil market. If implemented, it could remove 4 million barrels per day of oil from the market and push crude prices above $100 per barrel [6] [8] - Various commodities in the energy - chemical industry show different trends. Supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and market sentiment all influence commodity prices [8] [9] [10] Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply is marginally more relaxed, month - spread has dropped significantly. Suggest reverse spread on month - spread and short PXN on the short side. 8 - month has no new maintenance, but some plants plan to restart, while PTA demand may decline [8] - **PTA**: Trend is weak, focus on positive spread on month - spread. Polyester factory开工率 is low, raw material inventory - holding willingness is down, and the polyester sector is entering a stocking phase [9] - **MEG**: Unilateral trend is downward. Domestic plant开工率 will rise, polyester device开工率 is low, and attention should be paid to the situation of the main contract changing hands and the ratio of warehouse receipts to positions [10] Rubber - Trend is weak and fluctuating. EU's anti - dumping policy on Chinese tires may impact exports. In June, Chinese tire exports decreased month - on - month and year - on - year [12] [14] Synthetic Rubber - Runs weakly. Short - term price may correct from high levels and enter a volatile pattern in the medium term. Market is affected by news and conflicts, with sample enterprise inventory decreasing and port inventory of butadiene dropping [16] [17] [18] Asphalt - Oscillates at high levels, beware of another rise in crude oil. This week, domestic asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased, maintenance volume decreased, and shipment volume increased slightly [19] [31] LLDPE - Trend still faces pressure. In August, maintenance volume will decrease, and new production capacity is expected in the third quarter. Although inventory is lower than the same period last year, it is gradually entering a stocking phase [32] [33] PP - Spot price drops, trading is light. PP futures oscillate weakly, suppressing the spot market atmosphere. Downstream procurement willingness is still low [36] [37] 烧碱 - Although currently in the off - season with limited upward momentum, there are expectations for peak - season demand. In the long term, mid - August plant maintenance and downstream restocking may drive up the spot price [41] Paper Pulp - Oscillates weakly. Demand is weak, downstream paper mills' shipments are poor, and port inventory is high [44] [46] Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. Market speculative supplies impact the spot market, causing sales of float glass factories to weaken, with prices in some regions dropping and a slight increase in the South China region [50] [51] Methanol - Oscillates under pressure. Short - term price may correct from high levels and enter a volatile pattern in the medium term. The port market is affected by weather and inventory, and the inland market is affected by olefin plant procurement [56] Urea - Pressure gradually increases. In late July, enterprise inventory increased, and short - term prices may correct from high levels and enter a volatile pattern in the medium term [58] [59] Styrene - Compress profit and take profit in time, short on the short side. Styrene is in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, and port inventory is accelerating the stocking process [61] [62] 纯碱 - The spot market changes little. Supply is at a high level, downstream demand is tepid, and the market is expected to oscillate steadily in the short term [66] PVC - Weakly oscillates in the short term. Supply is increasing steadily, demand improvement is limited, and inventory has been accumulating for more than five weeks. High - production and high - inventory patterns are difficult to change in the short term [68] [69] [70] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil continues to decline, and low - sulfur fuel oil turns down at night. The price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has significantly retracted [73] 集运指数（欧线） - Hold short positions as appropriate, or the weakness may continue. Freight rates of European and US - West routes are showing a downward trend, and future shipping schedules may be dynamically adjusted [75]