Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides a forward - looking analysis of key events and data releases in the coming week (October 20 - 24, 2025), and analyzes their potential impacts on the futures market. It also suggests paying attention to factors such as domestic macro - policies, international trade and tariff wars, international geopolitical situations, and the negotiation on ending the US government shutdown [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Key Focus - A Republican temporary appropriation bill aiming to fund the federal government until the end of November failed in the Senate, and US government economic data may be delayed due to the government shutdown [2]. - On October 20, the People's Bank of China will announce the October 2025 LPR, with expectations of no change from the previous values; the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on September's national economic performance, releasing macro - economic data; the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held from October 20 - 23; the US will release September's non - farm payroll report and retail sales data; on October 24, the US will release September's CPI data [2]. This Week's Hotspot Preview October 20 - China's October LPR: Expected 1 - year LPR at 3.00% and 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.50%, unchanged from the previous values, with a neutral impact on commodity, stock index, and treasury bond futures [4]. - National Bureau of Statistics' report on housing sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities: Attention should be paid to its impact on relevant futures prices [5]. - Press conference on September's national economic performance: Expected 1 - 9 months' cumulative year - on - year growth of urban fixed - asset investment at 0.1% (0.5% in 1 - 8 months), September's year - on - year growth of industrial added value at 5.0% (5.2% previously), September's year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods at 3.0% (3.4% previously), Q3 GDP year - on - year growth at 4.8% (5.2% in Q2), and Q3 GDP quarter - on - quarter growth at 0.8% (1.1% in Q2). Lower - than - previous - value data may suppress commodity and stock index futures and benefit treasury bond futures [8]. - US September non - farm payroll report: Expected seasonally - adjusted new non - farm jobs at 50,000 (22,000 previously), unemployment rate at 4.3% (unchanged), and average hourly wage annual rate at 3.7% (unchanged). Higher new non - farm jobs may slightly suppress gold and silver futures and benefit other industrial product futures [9]. - US September retail sales: Expected monthly rate at 0.4% (0.6% previously), core retail sales monthly rate at 0.3% (0.7% previously). Lower - than - previous - value data may slightly benefit gold and silver futures and suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures [10]. - The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China: The main agendas include the Politburo reporting work and discussing suggestions for the 15th Five - Year Plan, and analyzing the current economic situation and deploying the second - half economic work [11]. October 21 - Fed's payment innovation conference: Will discuss stablecoins, artificial intelligence, and tokenization [12]. October 22 - US EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending October 17: A continued decline may benefit crude oil and related futures prices [13]. October 23 - Eurozone's preliminary October consumer confidence index: Expected at - 12.7 (- 12.9 previously) [14]. - US September existing home sales: Expected seasonally - adjusted annualized total at 4.08 million (4 million previously). Higher - than - previous - value data may slightly benefit non - ferrous metals futures and suppress gold and silver futures [15]. October 24 - National Bureau of Statistics' report on market prices of important production materials in mid - October: Will cover 9 categories and 50 products [16]. - Eurozone's preliminary October SPGI manufacturing PMI: Expected at 49.5 (49.8 previously) [17]. - US September CPI: Expected unadjusted CPI year - on - year growth at 2.9% (unchanged), seasonally - adjusted CPI month - on - month growth at 0.4% (unchanged), unadjusted core CPI year - on - year growth at 3.1% (unchanged), and unadjusted core CPI month - on - month growth at 0.3% (unchanged). Unchanged data may strengthen the expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in October and December [18]. - US preliminary October SPGI manufacturing PMI: Expected at 52 (unchanged) [19]. - US September new home sales: Expected seasonally - adjusted annualized total at 710,000 (800,000 previously). Lower - than - previous - value data may suppress non - ferrous metals futures and benefit gold and silver futures [20].

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-10-20 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 期货研究 1 2025-10-20 党的二十届四中全会今日召开 观点分享： 中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议于 10 月 20 日至 23 日在北京召开。主 要议程包括：中共中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作，研究关于制定国民经济和社会发展第 十五个五年规划的建议；会议分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。基于《二〇三 五年远景目标》所提出的用"三个五年"基本实现社会主义现代化，"十五五"是承上启下 的关键五年。民生证券表示，即将传递出的重大信号包括，一是发挥集中力量办大事的制度 优势，在激烈国际竞争中赢得战略主动；二是强国建设系统推进，金融强国建设有望作为科 技和制造业强国的协同战略加快推进；三是把因地制宜发展生产力放在更加突出的战略位置； 四是扩大内需更加强调保障和改善民生，提升消费率迎来综合施策；五是纵深推进全国统一 大市场建设。 | 所 | 长 | 首 | 推 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 关注指数 | | | 板块 | | ★★★★ | | | 期指 | | 期指：短线或反弹 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 20 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 | | 豆一：震荡 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴光静 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 | wuguangjing@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 | （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2601 （元/吨） | 4028 | +10（+0.25%） 4028 | +0（+0.00%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 2868 | -39 （-1.34%） 2895 | +27（+0.94%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1021 | +9.25（+0.91%） | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 281 | +3.7（+1.33%） | n a | | | | | （43%） 豆粕 | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 2960～2970， M2601+40/+60/+90， M260 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a forecast of the futures market on October 20, 2025, based on macro - fundamental and technical analysis. It predicts the likely trends (such as strong - side or weak - side oscillations) and support and resistance levels for various futures contracts across different sectors, including stock index futures, bond futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, energy futures, and agricultural futures. It also presents the performance of these futures on October 17, 2025, and offers a monthly outlook for October 2025 [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Forecast for October 20, 2025 - Stock index futures (IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, IM2512) are expected to oscillate strongly. For example, IF2512 has resistance levels at 4550 and 4600 points and support levels at 4455 and 4400 points [2]. - Ten - year and thirty - year bond futures (T2512, TL2512) are likely to have wide - range oscillations. T2512 has resistance at 108.32 and 108.43 yuan and support at 108.17 and 108.13 yuan [2]. - Gold and silver futures (AU2512, AG2512) are expected to oscillate weakly. AU2512 may test support levels at 960.0 and 949.5 yuan/gram [2]. - Copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, nickel, tin, and other base metal futures have different expected trends. For instance, copper futures (CU2512) are likely to oscillate strongly with resistance at 85600 and 86400 yuan/ton and support at 84400 and 83800 yuan/ton [3]. - Energy futures such as crude oil (SC2512) and fuel oil (FU2601) are expected to oscillate strongly. SC2512 may attack resistance levels at 446 and 450 yuan/barrel [7]. - Agricultural futures like bean粕 (M2601) and palm oil (P2601) are also expected to oscillate strongly. M2601 may attack resistance at 2914 and 2926 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Performance on October 17, 2025 - Stock index futures generally showed weak oscillations. For example, IF2512 closed at 4485.2 points, down 2.19% [16]. - Bond futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.74% to 115.870 yuan [40]. - Gold futures showed strong oscillations during the day but weak oscillations at night. The main contract AU2512 closed at 999.80 yuan/gram during the day, up 3.82%, and 973.88 yuan/gram at night, down 1.27% [46]. - Silver futures also had a similar pattern. The main contract AG2512 closed at 12249 yuan/kilogram during the day, up 2.06%, and 11748 yuan/kilogram at night, down 3.94% [52]. 3. Monthly Outlook for October 2025 - Stock index futures (IF, IH, IC, IM) are likely to have weak wide - range oscillations. For example, IF is expected to have support at 4307 and 4200 points and resistance at 4750 and 4850 points [23]. - Gold and silver futures are expected to oscillate strongly. Gold futures may attack resistance at 1000.0 and 1100.0 yuan/gram [49]. - Copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures have different expected trends. Copper futures are expected to have strong wide - range oscillations with resistance at 89000 and 90000 yuan/ton [61]. - Energy futures such as crude oil are expected to oscillate weakly and may test support at 417 and 395 yuan/barrel [124]. 4. Macro - economic Information - China - US economic and trade officials held a video call and agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [9]. - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth and maintain financial market stability [9]. - The Ministry of Finance announced measures to consolidate and expand the economic recovery, including allocating 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit to local governments [11]. - The national fiscal revenue in the first three quarters was 16.39 trillion yuan, up 0.5% year - on - year, and the fiscal expenditure was 20.81 trillion yuan, up 3.1% year - on - year [11].

2025 年 10 月 20 日 纯苯：震荡偏弱为主 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z008016 Huangtianyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BZ2603 | 5566 | 5644 | -78 | BZ2603-EB2508 | -1104 | -794 | -310 | | BZ2604 | 5563 | 5634 | -71 | BZ2603-EB2509 | -867 | -882 | 15 | | BZ2605 | 5567 | 5610 | -43 | BZ2603-EB2603 | -1105 | -1131 | 26 | | BZ2603-BZ2604 | 3 | 10 | -7 | BZ2604-EB2604 | -1147 | -1156 | 9 | | BZ2604-BZ2605 | -4 | 24 | -28 | 山东纯苯价格 | 5416 | 5444 | -28 | | 纸货价格：N+1 | ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 20 日 铝：考验 21000 关口 氧化铝：小幅反弹 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | T | | | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | | 20910 | -65 | -70 | 190 | 465 | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | | 20925 | ー | - | ー | - | | LME铝3M收盘价 | | 2779 | -18 | 33 | 157 | 194 | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | | 129236 | 63433 | -50642 | 25770 | -23174 | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | | 230208 | 92804 | 35910 | 16261 | -30341 | | 电解铝 LM ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No explicit industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. However, trend intensities are given for each commodity: - **Neutral (0)**: PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, paper pulp, methanol, LPG, propylene, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, urea [2][9][13] - **Weakly Bearish (-1)**: LLDPE, PP, glass,烧碱, PVC,纯碱 [36][40][51] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term and medium - term outlooks for various energy and chemical commodities. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, inventory levels, macro - economic events, and trade relations. For most commodities, the market is influenced by a combination of fundamental factors and macro - level events, leading to a mix of trends including short - term oscillations and long - term bearish or bullish tendencies [9][20][56] 3. Summary by Commodity Aromatics and Polyester Chain - **PX**: Short - term range - bound market, long PXN. Supply is slightly tight due to planned and unexpected plant shutdowns. Demand may improve with the onset of cold weather and the start - up of new PTA plants [9] - **PTA**: Demand may improve marginally. It's a range - bound market for the single - side, and short positions should be reduced. Supply increases with new plant start - ups, and demand is affected by polyester consumption and trade relations [10] - **MEG**: Short positions below 4000 should be reduced. Domestic plant operating rates are rising, but some plants will undergo maintenance. Import and cost factors also impact the market [11] Rubber - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to trade sideways. Vietnam's rubber exports in September decreased due to weather and weak demand, but a slight increase is expected in October [13][16] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Likely to oscillate in the short term. There is fundamental pressure from high supply, but the valuation is moderately low, and macro - events may support the price [20] Asphalt - Follows crude oil and trades weakly with oscillations. Production decreased this week, and both factory and social inventories declined [21][33] Plastics - **LLDPE**: The trend is bearish. Market sentiment is weak, cost support from crude oil is reduced, and supply and inventory pressures are high [34][35] - **PP**: The trend remains bearish. Trade wars, falling oil prices, and high supply suppress the market price [38][39] - **PVC**: The trend is bearish. Trade wars, cost declines, and high supply and inventory levels create pressure on the market [71] Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The far - month valuation is suppressed by alumina production cut expectations. Supply and demand are affected by alumina industry conditions and winter maintenance schedules [43] - **Methanol**: Expected to trade sideways. There is fundamental pressure from high supply and inventory, but the valuation is moderately low, and macro - events may support the price [56] - **Urea**: Short - term oscillations with a bearish medium - term trend. High social inventory, weak domestic demand, and uncertain export policies contribute to the situation [59][60] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market shows little change. Supply is high, and downstream demand is weak, leading to a short - term weak and oscillating market [61] - **LPG**: The futures valuation is being repaired, but macro - risks remain. PDH operating rates are decreasing [64] - **Propylene**: Supply and demand are relatively loose, and it trades weakly with oscillations in the short term [64] Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: There was a slight night - session rebound, but the short - term weakness persists. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Undergoes narrow - range adjustments, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [73] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Spot prices show little change, and geopolitical issues are recurring. Freight rates are affected by various factors such as market supply and demand and exchange rates [75]

生猪：供应后置确认，中枢进一步下移 | 周小球 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | 价 格 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | 同 比 | | | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11380 | 100 | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 10900 | 100 | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 11460 | 0 | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | 比 同 | | | 生猪2511 | 元/吨 | 11050 | -115 | 资料来源：国泰君安期货 2025 年 10 月 20 日 【市场信息】 1、神农云南及广西库注册 90 手仓单，贵州贞丰富之源注册 21 手仓单。 2、越秀及扬翔新增交割库。 【趋势强度】 趋势强度：-2 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、 ...

| | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2511 | 6064 | 6118 | -54 | PF11-12 | 28 | 26 | 2 | | PF | 短纤2512 | ୧03୧ | 6092 | -56 | PF12-01 | -12 | 28 | -40 | | | 短纤2601 | 6048 | 6064 | -16 | PF主力基美 | 254 | 213 | 41 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 232363 | 276286 | -43923 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 290 | 6, 305 | -15 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 200864 | 187340 | 13524 | 短纤产销率 | 79% | 46% | 33% | | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | 瓶片2511 | 5562 | 5608 | -46 | PR11-12 | 6 | -2 | 8 | | | ...

2025 年 10 月 20 日 沥青：跟随原油弱势震荡 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,234 | -1.37% | 3,238 | 0.12% | | | BU2512 | 元/吨 | 3,166 | -0.97% | 3,167 | 0.03% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2511 | 手 | 82,392 | (17,973) | 53,865 | (17,771) | | | BU2512 | 手 | 43,600 | (313) | 81,923 | 727 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 33740 | -2630 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | ...