商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 21 日 黄金：再创新高 白银：关税预期波动 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货 【宏观及行业新闻】（资料来源：华尔街见闻） 1、日本财相呼吁债市恢复冷静，美国财长贝森特称日债抛售潮外溢至美债并表示已就此问题与日方 沟通。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2602 | 1,056.94 | 0.77% | #N/A | #N/A | | | 黄金T+D | 1,055.99 | 1.03% | #N/A | #N/A | | | Comex黄金2602 | 4769.10 | #N/A | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | 沪银2602 | 23112 | -0.57% | #N/A | #N/A | | 价 格 | ...

2026年01月21日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：印尼言论反复扰动情绪，镍价宽幅震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：供给扰动，偏强震荡 | 4 | | 工业硅：商品情绪回落，逢高布空思路 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交价 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 21 日 镍：印尼言论反复扰动情绪，镍价宽幅震荡运行 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 141,360 | -960 | 2,910 | 1,560 | 24,18 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Strongly bullish: Platinum, Palladium, Fuel Oil, Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil, Cotton [27][113][156] - Bullish: Gold, Carbonate Lithium, Paraxylene, PTA [5][38][69] - Neutral: Copper, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Aluminum, Cast Aluminum Alloy, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Iron Ore, Rebar, Hot-Rolled Coil, Ferrosilicon, Silicomanganese, Coke, Coking Coal, Steam Coal, Logs, MEG, Synthetic Rubber, LLDPE, PP, Methanol, Urea, Styrene, Soda Ash, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Offset Printing Paper, Pure Benzene, Soybean Meal, Soybean, Corn, Eggs, Peanuts [9][12][16][19][23][29][39][43][46][50][53][57][59][69][76][79][82][95][100][103][105][130][133][138][141][144][158][165] - Bearish: Alumina, Rubber, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Glass, PVC, Sugar, Live Pigs [24][73][84][87][92][110][147][161] - Strongly bearish: None Core Views - The report analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and investment opportunities of various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. [2][6][9] - It provides trend intensities and investment suggestions for each commodity based on factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and geopolitical events. [11][15][17] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Reached a new high, with positive price trends influenced by factors like geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic policies [5]. - **Silver**: Experienced price fluctuations due to tariff expectations, with specific price and trading volume data provided [6]. - **Platinum**: May initiate a catch-up rally, showing positive price movements and trading volume changes [25]. - **Palladium**: Trended upward in a volatile manner, with price increases and trading volume variations [25]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Faced price pressure due to market risk aversion, affected by factors such as Japanese bond market turmoil and increased investment by the State Grid [9]. - **Zinc**: Slightly declined, with changes in price, trading volume, and inventory levels [12]. - **Lead**: Price was pressured by increasing overseas inventories, with specific price and inventory data presented [16]. - **Tin**: Traded within a range, with price fluctuations and changes in trading volume [20]. - **Aluminum**: Had support at lower levels, while alumina trended downward, and cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum [23]. - **Nickel**: Price fluctuated widely due to inconsistent statements from Indonesia, and stainless steel was supported by the rise in nickel iron [29]. Energy - **Fuel Oil**: Rose with fluctuations and rebounded strongly at night, with price and trading volume data provided [113]. - **Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Followed the upward trend of fuel oil, with a slight contraction in the price spread between high and low sulfur in the spot market [113]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Were affected by both macro and micro factors, trending weakly in a volatile manner [53]. - **Steam Coal**: Market sentiment was weak, with short-term price adjustments [57]. Chemicals - **Paraxylene**: The futures price rose driven by the significant increase in polyester leading stocks, with supply expected to be ample in the future [63]. - **PTA**: Considered reducing processing fees, with future supply and demand expected to weaken and inventory to accumulate [70]. - **MEG**: Traded in a range, with limited downside space and attention on basis and 5 - 9 positive spreads [72]. - **Rubber**: Trended weakly in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as inventory increases and weak downstream demand [73]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Operated weakly in the short term, with price and trading volume changes [76]. - **LLDPE**: The standard product production continued to increase, and spot trading weakened [79]. - **PP**: Production remained at a low level, and profit repair was limited [82]. - **Caustic Soda**: Faced downward pressure, with supply and demand imbalances and high inventory levels [84]. - **Pulp**: Trended weakly in a volatile manner, affected by factors such as high inventory and weak demand [87]. - **Glass**: The original sheet price remained stable, with weak downstream demand and some support from export orders [92]. - **Methanol**: Traded in a range, with inventory changes and market sentiment influencing the price [95]. - **Urea**: Consolidated in a volatile manner, with the downside space narrowing [100]. - **Styrene**: Trended upward in a volatile manner, with strong export performance and increased downstream replenishment [103]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changed little, with stable production and weak market support [105]. - **PVC**: Trended weakly in a volatile manner, with high production and inventory levels and limited export benefits [110]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: May trade in a range as overnight US soybeans slightly declined, with specific price and trading volume data provided [141]. - **Soybean**: The spot price was stable, and the futures price adjusted, with market sentiment influenced by factors such as the US - EU situation and Brazilian soybean production [141]. - **Corn**: Pulled back, with price and trading volume changes and market information about supply and demand [144]. - **Sugar**: Trended weakly, affected by factors such as global supply and demand and import policies [147]. - **Cotton**: Trended upward in a volatile manner, with active spot trading and some improvement in the foreign trade order situation [152]. - **Eggs**: Market sentiment weakened, with price and trading volume changes [158]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price weakened, and the peak - season expectation decreased, with price and trading volume data provided [161]. - **Peanuts**: Traded in a range, with price and trading volume changes and market information about supply and demand [165]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Traded in a range temporarily, affected by factors such as the accelerating decline in spot prices and geopolitical uncertainties [115].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance levels, and support levels of various futures contracts on January 20, 2026, and the overall trend of the main continuous contracts in January 2026 [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News and Trading Tips - Premier Li Qiang chaired a symposium to solicit opinions on the government work report and the 15th Five - Year Plan [5] - China's GDP in 2025 increased by 5% year - on - year, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan, with the fourth - quarter growth of 4.5%. Other economic data such as industrial added value, service industry added value, etc. were also released [5] - The housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities showed a general decline in December 2024, with different trends in new and second - hand housing [5][6] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance will hold press conferences to introduce relevant economic policies [6] - Trump's tariff increase plan on 8 countries and the EU's possible counter - measures [5][6][7] - The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3% and also raised the growth forecasts of China, the US, the Eurozone, and Japan [6] - Germany restarted electric vehicle purchase subsidies [7] 3.2 Commodity Futures - Related Information - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the daily price limit and margin standards for lithium carbonate futures contracts [7] - On January 19, due to the tense situation between the US and Europe over Greenland, safe - haven sentiment drove up the prices of gold and silver futures. International oil prices rose, and London base metals also increased across the board [7][8] - The on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar changed, and the US dollar index declined [8][9] 3.3 Futures Market Analysis and Forecast 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - On January 19, the main contracts of stock index futures showed different trends. The overall performance of A - shares was a shrinking shock, and the performance of Hong Kong and European stock markets was weak [9][12][13] - It is expected that in January 2026, the main continuous contracts of stock index futures IF, IH, IC, and IM will be oscillating strongly. On January 20, the contracts will be strongly oscillating [13][14] 3.3.2 Gold Futures - On January 19, the main contract AU2604 of gold futures rose. Technical analysis shows that the main continuous contract is in a strong upward position. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in January 2026 and on January 20, and may hit a record high [33][34] 3.3.3 Silver Futures - On January 19, the main contract AG2604 of silver futures rose. The main continuous contract is in a strong upward position. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in January 2026 and on January 20, and may hit a record high [38][39] 3.3.4 Copper Futures - On January 19, the main contract CU2603 of copper futures slightly rebounded. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in January 2026 and on January 20, and may hit a record high in January [45] 3.3.5 Aluminum Futures - On January 19, the main contract AL2603 of aluminum futures rebounded. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in January 2026 and on January 20, and may hit a record high in January [50] 3.3.6 Alumina Futures - On January 19, the main contract AO2605 of alumina futures declined. It is expected to be weakly and broadly oscillating in January 2026 and weakly oscillating on January 20 [56][57] 3.3.7 Nickel Futures - On January 19, the main contract NI2602 of nickel futures rebounded. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in January 2026 and on January 20 [61] 3.3.8 Tin Futures - On January 19, the main contract SN2602 of tin futures declined. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in January 2026 and strongly and broadly oscillating on January 20, and may hit a record high in January [67] 3.3.9 Lithium Carbonate Futures - On January 19, the main contract LC2605 of lithium carbonate futures rebounded. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in January 2026 and strongly and broadly oscillating on January 20 [70] 3.3.10 Rebar Futures - On January 19, the main contract RB2605 of rebar futures declined. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in January 2026 and oscillating on January 20 [74] 3.3.11 Hot - Rolled Coil Futures - On January 19, the main contract HC2605 of hot - rolled coil futures declined. It is expected to be oscillating on January 20 [79] 3.3.12 Iron Ore Futures - On January 19, the main contract I2605 of iron ore futures declined. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in January 2026 and oscillating on January 20 [81] 3.3.13 Coking Coal Futures - On January 19, the main contract JM2605 of coking coal futures slightly rebounded. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in January 2026 and weakly oscillating on January 20 [85] 3.3.14 Glass Futures - On January 19, the main contract FG605 of glass futures declined. It is expected to be weakly and broadly oscillating in January 2026 and weakly oscillating on January 20 [88] 3.3.15 Soda Ash Futures - On January 19, the main contract SA605 of soda ash futures was stable. It is expected to be weakly and broadly oscillating in January 2026 and weakly oscillating on January 20 [92][93] 3.3.16 PVC Futures - On January 19, the main contract V2605 of PVC futures slightly declined. It is expected to be strongly oscillating on January 20 [97] 3.3.17 Methanol Futures - On January 19, the main contract MA605 of methanol futures declined. It is expected to be weakly oscillating on January 20 [98] 3.3.18 Cotton Futures - On January 19, the main contract CF605 of cotton futures slightly declined. It is expected to be weakly oscillating on January 20 [101] 3.3.19 Natural Rubber Futures - On January 19, the main contract RU2605 of natural rubber futures declined. It is expected to be weakly oscillating on January 20 [103]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - No relevant information provided. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold (AU) - **Prices**: On January 20, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract closed at 1060.16 yuan/gram, the near - month contract at 1056.94 yuan/gram; COMEX gold main contract was 0.00 dollars/ounce, near - month at 4590.00 dollars/ounce; London gold spot price was 4609.15 dollars/ounce, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange spot price was 1043.10 yuan/gram [1]. - **Basis**: Domestic basis (gold T + D - main contract) was - 4.17 yuan/gram, and overseas basis (LBMA gold spot - COMEX AU01) was 9.95 dollars/ounce [1]. Silver (AG) - **Prices**: On January 20, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract closed at - 127 yuan/kilogram, the near - month contract at 23112 yuan/kilogram; COMEX silver main contract was 89.95 dollars/ounce, near - month at 89.19 dollars/ounce; London silver spot price was 90.8 dollars/ounce, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange spot price was 495 yuan/kilogram [1]. - **Basis**: Domestic basis (AG(T + D) - main contract) was 52 yuan/gram, and overseas basis (LBMA silver spot - COMEX AG01) was 0.855 dollars/ounce [1]. Copper (CU, BC) - **Prices**: On January 20, 2026, the Shanghai Copper (CU) main contract closed at 101230 yuan/ton, the continuous contract at 100940 yuan/ton; international copper (BC) main contract at 90040 yuan/ton, continuous contract at 90040 yuan/ton; LME copper 3M at 12938.00 dollars/ton; COMEX copper main contract was 0.00 dollars/pound [1]. - **Spreads**: Shanghai copper monthly spread (CU00 - CU01) was - 290 yuan/ton, international copper monthly spread (BC00 - BC01) was - 60.00 yuan/ton; LME copper 0 - 3 spread was 6.03 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai copper warehouse receipt inventory was 148193 tons, international copper warehouse receipt inventory was - 25 tons, and LME copper warehouse receipt inventory was 147425 tons [1]. Aluminum and Alumina (AL, AO) - **Prices**: On January 20, 2026, the Shanghai Aluminum (AL) main contract closed at 23950 yuan/ton, the continuous contract at 23880 yuan/ton; alumina (AO) main contract at 2671 yuan/ton, continuous contract at 2530 yuan/ton; LME aluminum 3M at 3146.50 dollars/ton; COMEX aluminum main contract was 0.00 dollars/ton [1]. - **Spreads**: Shanghai aluminum monthly spread (AL00 - AL01) was - 5 yuan/ton, alumina monthly spread (A000 - A001) was - 100 yuan/ton; LME aluminum 0 - 3 spread was 16 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipt inventory was 139951 tons, alumina warehouse receipt inventory was 187938 tons, and LME aluminum warehouse receipt inventory was 485000 tons [1]. Zinc (ZN) - **Prices**: On January 20, 2026, the Shanghai Zinc (ZN) main contract closed at 24410 yuan/ton, the continuous contract at 24365 yuan/ton; LME zinc 3M at 3227 dollars/ton [1]. - **Spreads**: Shanghai zinc monthly spread (ZN00 - ZN01) was - 45 yuan/ton, LME zinc 0 - 3 spread was - 19.36 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 32385 tons, and LME zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 105050 tons [1]. Lead (PB) - **Prices**: On January 20, 2026, the Shanghai Lead (PB) main contract closed at 17225 yuan/ton, the continuous contract at 17225 yuan/ton; LME lead 3M at 2058.00 dollars/ton [1]. - **Spreads**: Shanghai lead monthly spread (PB00 - PB01) was - 60 yuan/ton, LME lead 0 - 3 spread was - 47.13 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 27564 tons, and LME lead warehouse receipt inventory was 203500 tons [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel (NI, SS) - **Prices**: On January 20, 2026, the Shanghai Nickel (NI) main contract closed at 141360 yuan/ton, the continuous contract at 141360 yuan/ton; stainless steel (SS) main contract at 14345 yuan/ton, continuous contract at 14445 yuan/ton; LME nickel 3M at 17910 dollars/ton [1]. - **Spreads**: Shanghai nickel monthly spread (NI00 - NI01) was - 200 yuan/ton, stainless steel monthly spread (SS00 - SS01) was 100 yuan/ton; LME nickel 0 - 3 spread was - 100 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt inventory was 41478 tons, stainless steel warehouse receipt inventory was 38196 tons, and LME nickel warehouse receipt inventory was 285708 tons [1]. Tin (SN) - **Prices**: On January 20, 2026, the Shanghai Tin (SN) main contract closed at 399000 yuan/ton, the continuous contract at 399000 yuan/ton; LME tin 3M at 50080 dollars/ton [1]. - **Spreads**: Shanghai tin monthly spread (SN00 - SN01) was - 430 yuan/ton, LME tin 0 - 3 spread was - 839 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory was 8860 tons, and LME tin warehouse receipt inventory was 6440 tons [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Alumina: Continuing to bottom out [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Viewpoints - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, covering futures and spot markets, and provides investment ratings and trend strength indicators for each [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 24,090, with the night - session closing price at 24,225. The LME aluminum 3M closing price was 3,166. Trading volume and positions showed certain fluctuations compared with previous periods. The LME注销仓单占比 was 6.75%, down 1.74% from the previous day [1] - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,733, and the night - session closing price was 2,691. Trading volume and positions also changed compared with previous data [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 22,890, and the night - session closing price was 22,910. There were changes in trading volume and positions [1] Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 764,000 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons from the previous day. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit and loss was 7,727.26, down 140.75 from the previous day [1] - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price was 2,660, down 6 from the previous day. The alumina enterprise profit and loss in Shanxi was - 207, down 5 from the previous day [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The ADC12 theoretical profit was 527, an increase of 223 from the previous day. The three - place inventory totaled 43,199, a decrease of 293 from the previous day [1] Trend Strength - Aluminum trend strength: 1; Alumina trend strength: - 1; Aluminum alloy trend strength: 1 [3]

全国碳市场行情简报 (2026年第10期) 2、目前卖方出货意愿较低,买方采购意愿零星显现,买卖盘价差偏高,市场成交较为 清淡。 1、CCER供应增量超预期;2、发电行业配额缺口低于预期;3、主管部门出台政策明确 风险 具有雄心的未来减排路径。 图表1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 上不看了期货 发布日期:2026-01-16 CEA暂无挂牌协议成交,CCER重回"溢价"状态 今日 1、CEA:挂牌0.0万吨,大宗70.0万吨;挂牌成交均价78.50元/吨(0.00%) 行情 2、CCER: 挂牌协议成交量10.00万吨,成交均价82.00元/吨（19.28%） 信号强度:0(0为空仓,士1为偏多/空,土2为多/空) 策略 1、近期市场成交多为跨行业结转回购,成交价格受回购合同制约,导致CEA日内波动 增加,价格或偏离市场估值。 大宗协议成交量 60.00 0.00 10. 00 0. 00 0. 00 0. 00 单向竞价成交量 0. 00 0.00 0. 00 0. 00 0. 00 0. 00 总成交额(万元) 4.283 790 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 图表3:CEA每日成交 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the rubber industry is "shockingly weak" [1] Core View - The rubber market shows a shockingly weak trend, with various data in the futures and spot markets experiencing fluctuations [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 15,745 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan from the previous day; the night closing price was 15,610 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan. The trading volume was 216,355 lots, a decrease of 131,826 lots. The open interest of the 05 contract was 186,443 lots, a decrease of 4,496 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity increased by 1,500 tons to 109,890 tons, and the net short position of the top 20 members decreased by 4,064 lots to 39,694 lots [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of "spot - futures main contract" was -245 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan; the basis of "mixed - futures main contract" was -895 yuan, an increase of 10 yuan. The monthly spread of RU05 - RU09 was 40 yuan, an increase of 10 yuan. The RSS3 outer - disk quotation remained unchanged at 2,160 US dollars/ton, while STR20, SMR20, and SIR20 decreased by 5 US dollars/ton respectively [1] - **Substitutes and Spot Market**: The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 12,100 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,700 yuan/ton. In the Qingdao market, the price of Thai standard and Thai mixed rubber decreased by 10 US dollars/ton, and the price of African 10 decreased by 15 US dollars/ton [1] Industry News - As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 58.49 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.67 tons, or 2.94%. The bonded area inventory increased by 6.42% to 9.95 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 2.26% to 48.54 tons. The inbound rate and outbound rate of bonded and general trade warehouses both increased [2] Supply Situation - Enterprises adjust production schedules flexibly according to their own inventory, shipments, and orders. Some enterprises that limited production last week may increase production this week, while others may moderately reduce production due to shipment pressure. Overall, the supply side fluctuates slightly, and the shipment of some enterprises in Shandong has slowed down due to weather [4] Trend Intensity - The rubber trend intensity is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PX: The valuation follows the cost - end correction, being relatively neutral. Future PX supply is expected to be loose, and the processing fee is maintained at 330 USD/ton. It's advisable to focus on the long - PX short - PTA and long - MX short - PX hedges [7]. - PTA: The PTA processing fee is at a high level. It's recommended to focus on reducing the processing - fee position. Future supply and demand will be weak, and the inventory will accumulate. The unilateral price has limited downside space [8]. - MEG: It is in a range - bound market with limited downside space. Attention should be paid to basis and 5 - 9 calendar spreads. The supply pressure is still large, but the basis and monthly spreads can cover storage costs [8]. 3. Summary of Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data | Futures | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Month - spread Closing Price | Month - spread Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | PX Main | 7106 | 20 | 0.28% | 68 | 8 | | PTA Main | 5030 | 12 | 0.24% | 42 | - 2 | | MEG Main | 3755 | - 41 | - 1.08% | - 108 | - 4 | | PF Main | 6398 | - 2 | - 0.03% | - 44 | 0 | | SC Main | 437.4 | - 1.4 | - 0.32% | - 1.2 | 2.3 | [2] 3.2 Spot Market Data | Spot | Price | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | PX CFR China (USD/ton) | 879 | 0 | | PTA East China (CNY/ton) | 4972 | 12 | | MEG Spot | 3638 | - 57 | | Naphtha MOPJ (USD/ton) | 548.5 | 0 | | Dated Brent (USD/barrel) | 67.76 | 1.45 | [2] 3.3 Spot Processing Fee Data | Processing Fee | Price | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | PX - Naphtha Spread | 330.5 | 4.42 | | PTA Processing Fee | 309.31 | - 70.31 | | Staple Fiber Processing Fee | 120.64 | - 21.37 | | Bottle Chip Processing Fee | 149.42 | 47.24 | | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | - 4.34 | 0 | [2] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PX**: On January 19, the PX price remained stable, with an April Asian spot deal at 881. The estimated PX price was 879 USD/ton, unchanged from last Friday. The domestic PX plant operating rate increased to 89.6% [3][7]. - **PTA**: On January 19, the PTA spot price rose to 4970 CNY/ton. The current PTA operating rate is maintained at 76.9%, and the load - increasing space is limited [3][8]. - **MEG**: On January 19, the MEG port inventory in some main ports in East China was about 79.5 tons, a decrease of 0.7 tons from the previous period. The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate was 74.4%, and the coal - based operating rate was 80.2% (+1.6%) [4][8]. 3.5 Device Operation and Sales - **MEG**: An Anhui 300,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant recently reduced its load to 80 - 90%. A 360,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in the southwest began maintenance last weekend, expected to last about 10 days [6]. - **Polyester**: Two polyester plants in Xiaoshan with a total capacity of 400,000 tons started maintenance on Saturday, planning to restart on February 12. On January 19, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were polarized, with an average sales rate of 60% [6]. - **Polyester Yarn**: On January 19, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of 40 - 50% [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The LME spot of copper is strengthening and the price is firm. The copper trend intensity is 1, indicating a neutral to slightly positive sentiment [1][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs **3.1 Copper Fundamental Data** - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 101,180 with a daily increase of 0.41%, and the night - session closing price was 101,680 with a night - session increase of 0.49%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk had a closing price of 12,987 with a daily increase of 1.39% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index was 463,663, a decrease of 169,391 from the previous day, and the open interest was 627,161, a decrease of 16,429. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 20,647, a decrease of 12,054, and the open interest was 327,000, an increase of 2,567 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 152,655, a decrease of 7,762, and the LME copper inventory was 147,425, an increase of 3,850. The LME copper注销仓单比 was 32.93%, a decrease of 1.60% [1] - **Spreads**: There were various changes in spreads such as LME copper ascension and premium, spot - to - futures spreads, and inter - contract spreads [1] **3.2 Macro and Industry News** - **Macro News**: In 2025, China's high - tech manufacturing led the economy, achieving the GDP growth target of 5%. In December, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales slowed to 0.9%, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the annual fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year. Trump allegedly threatened the EU and made statements about Greenland and tariffs [1] - **Industry News**: Chile's Codelco submitted a $1.3 billion plan to extend the life of the Radomiro Tomic copper mine to 2058. During the "15th Five - Year Plan", State Grid's fixed - asset investment is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the "14th Five - Year Plan". Ivanhoe Mines achieved its 2025 copper and zinc production targets. The union of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile condemned the company for illegally replacing workers during a 15 - day strike [1][3]