1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, both internal and external environments changed. Internally, the "anti - involution" theme cooled, and the Politburo meeting emphasized policy implementation. Upstream resources retreated, with coal and non - ferrous metals leading the decline. Externally, the third round of China - US trade talks extended tariffs, the US dollar index rose, and the domestic risk appetite declined slightly. The Fed remained unchanged but had increasing differences on interest rate cuts. Financing funds flowed in rapidly but sentiment weakened later. Indexes retreated, with large - cap stocks falling more. IF, IC, and IM basis widened slightly, while IH was flat. The term structure adjusted in the opposite direction during the callback [2] 3. Summary by Related Content This Week's Review - Internal changes: The "anti - involution" theme cooled, the Politburo meeting emphasized policy implementation, and upstream resources retreated [2] - External changes: The third round of China - US trade talks extended tariffs, the US dollar index rose, and the domestic risk appetite declined slightly. The Fed had increasing differences on interest rate cuts [2] - Market performance: Financing funds flowed in rapidly but sentiment weakened later. Indexes retreated, with large - cap stocks falling more. IF, IC, and IM basis widened slightly, while IH was flat. The term structure adjusted in the opposite direction during the callback [2] This Week's Prediction Conclusion - The model predicts that next week, the basis of IH and IM will weaken, while the basis of IF and IC will strengthen [3] Recent Prediction Conclusion - There are graphical data on the real and predicted basis changes of IH, IF, IC, and IM, but specific conclusions are not explicitly summarized from the graphical content [4][5]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-08-01 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-08-01 所长 早读 中国 7 月官方制造业 PMI 回落至 49.3 观点分享： 7 月 31 日，国家统计局公布数据显示，7 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.3%， 比上月下降 0.4 个百分点，非制造业商务活动指数为 50.1%，比上月下降 0.4 个百分点。在 构成制造业 PMI 的 5 个分类指数中，生产指数为 50.5%，比上月下降 0.5 个百分点，仍高于 临界点，表明制造业生产延续扩张。新订单指数为 49.4%，比上月下降 0.8 个百分点，表明 制造业市场需求有所放缓。尽管 7 月政治局会议指向短期将更注重抓落实而非强刺激、即所 谓"托而不举"，但基于 7 月制造业 PMI 连续第四个月处于收缩区间且弱于季节性，若形势 恶化，亦不排除快速出台增量政策的可能。关注即将公布的 7 月财新 PMI，密切关注中美贸 易谈判进展情况。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 鸡蛋 | ★★★★ | 存栏维持增势，短期情绪偏弱。7 月以 ...

2025 年 8 月 1 日 股指期货将震荡整理 白银、原油期货将偏弱震荡 螺纹钢、 热卷板、铁矿石期货将偏强震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2509 阻力位 4087 和 4126 点，支撑位 4027 和 4001 点；IH2509 阻力位 2800 和 2812 点，支撑位 2762 和 2755 点；IC2509 阻力位 6173 和 6230 点，支撑位 6055 和 6003 点；IM2509 阻力位 6590 和 6640 点 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall commodity market is weakening, with various energy and chemical products showing different trends. Some products are trending down, some are in a volatile state, and some are facing pressure or have potential opportunities [2][10]. - For specific products, such as PX, PTA, and MEG, there are corresponding trading suggestions based on their supply - demand and cost situations [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: The commodity market is weakening, and PX多头减仓. Suggest to go long on PX and short on PTA01 contracts, and short PXN on rallies. Supply has a marginal decrease, and the cost side is strengthening [5][10]. - **PTA**: The trend is weak, and attention should be paid to positive spreads for the basis - spread arbitrage. Supply pressure is increasing, and the 01 contract's long - PX short - PTA strategy can be considered. The basis is in a reverse - arbitrage situation, and the 9 - 1 month spread positive arbitrage can be focused on [10][12]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is still weak, and the basis - spread strategy is to go long on the basis and short on the month spread. There is supply pressure from non - mainstream warehouse receipts, and the port inventory is decreasing. Attention can be paid to the short - MEG long - L arbitrage [12][13]. b. Rubber - The rubber market is in a volatile state. This week, the macro and fundamental factors have turned from strong to weak, leading to a high - level correction of rubber prices. The downstream tire enterprise procurement has weakened, and the inventory has increased [14][18]. c. Synthetic Rubber - In the short term, it is weak, but the downside space is narrowing. Although the overall commodity speculative sentiment is weakening, the significant decline in butadiene's port and production enterprise inventories provides support at the valuation end [19][21]. d. Asphalt - It is in a high - level volatile state, and attention should be paid to the possible rise of crude oil prices again. This week, the domestic asphalt production capacity utilization rate has increased, the maintenance volume has decreased, and the shipment volume has increased [22][33]. e. LLDPE - The trend still has pressure. Macroscopically, there is a risk of an unexpected trade war in August. The cost is rising due to the increase in crude oil prices, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand support is not strong [34][35]. f. PP - The spot price is falling, and the trading is light. The futures price is oscillating at a low level, which increases the wait - and - see sentiment of market participants. The cost support of the supply side is weakening, and the downstream procurement is cautious [38][39]. g. Caustic Soda - There are still expectations for the peak - season demand. Currently, it is in the off - season, and the price increase momentum is insufficient, but it is supported by the cost. In the long term, there is potential for demand growth [41][43]. h. Pulp - It is in a weakly volatile state. The reasons for the price fluctuation include the decline of the futures price following the overall commodity market, weak spot demand, and unresolved supply pressure [46][49]. i. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The domestic float - glass original - sheet price fluctuates, with some regions' prices rising and some falling. The downstream is digesting inventory, and the enterprise shipment is partly slowing down [51][52]. j. Methanol - It is under oscillating pressure. The port methanol market is in a state of inventory accumulation, and the downstream is resistant to high prices. The inland market is rising, mainly due to the increase in external procurement by northwest olefin plants [56][58]. k. Urea - The pressure is gradually increasing. The enterprise inventory has increased, the domestic demand is weakening, and the export is not meeting expectations. In the short term, it is expected to be under oscillating pressure [60][61]. l. Styrene - The profit is being compressed. It is in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, and is mainly considered as a short - position allocation. The port inventory is in an accelerated accumulation stage [63][64]. m. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The supply has a slight increase, and the downstream demand is tepid, with procurement mainly for on - demand replenishment [65][67]. n. PVC - It is in a short - term weakly volatile state. The fundamentals have not improved significantly during the "anti - involution" process. The industry has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the market may continue to short the chlor - alkali profit [70][72]. o. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session has weakened, and it has entered a short - term oscillating state. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The consolidation trend continues, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [75]. p. Container Freight Index (European Line) - It is recommended to hold short positions as appropriate, or the weak trend may continue. The index has been running weakly, with the main contracts showing declines and position reductions [77][84].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Palm oil: High - level gaming intensifies, waiting for a callback opportunity [2] - Soybean oil: Mainly fluctuating, focus on the China - US trade agreement [2] - Soybean meal: Concerns about trade, weak US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal fluctuates [2] - Soybean: Fluctuating [2] - Corn: Fluctuating [2] - Sugar: Brazil's sugarcane crushing progress accelerates [2] - Cotton: Sentiment cools down, Zhengzhou cotton futures callback [2] - Eggs: Weak sentiment [2] - Live pigs: End - of - month volume - shrinking rally, focus on sustainability [2] - Peanuts: Focus on weather in production areas [2] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 8,900 yuan/ton with a - 0.91% decline, and night - session closing price was 8,868 yuan/ton with a - 0.36% decline. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,192 yuan/ton with a - 0.58% decline, and night - session closing price was 8,198 yuan/ton. Malaysia's palm oil exports in July decreased compared to the previous month. Indonesia will raise the reference price and export tax of crude palm oil in August. The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0 [4][5][6][8][12] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean 2509's daily - session closing price was 4,131 yuan/ton with a - 0.51% decline, and night - session closing price was 4,133 yuan/ton with a - 0.10% decline. DCE soybean meal 2509's daily - session closing price was 3,000 yuan/ton with a - 0.03% decline, and night - session closing price was 3,002 yuan/ton with a - 0.13% decline. CBOT soybeans fell due to good weather and weak demand. The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean is 0 [13][15] Corn - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of C2509 was 2,288 yuan/ton with a - 0.95% decline in the daily session and 2,296 yuan/ton with a 0.35% increase in the night session. The closing price of C2511 was 2,230 yuan/ton with a - 0.54% decline in the daily session and 2,213 yuan/ton with a - 0.76% decline in the night session. Corn prices in different regions showed different trends. The trend intensity of corn is 0 [16][17][18] Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 16.35 cents/pound with a - 0.11 decline year - on - year. Brazil's sugarcane crushing progress in the central - southern region accelerated. The trend intensity of sugar is - 1 [20][23] Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2509's daily - session closing price was 13,650 yuan/ton with a - 0.76% decline, and night - session closing price was 13,655 yuan/ton with a 0.04% increase. ICE US cotton 12 fell. Cotton spot trading was good, but the cotton yarn market and fabric orders were weak. The trend intensity of cotton is 0 [25][26][29] Eggs - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of egg 2508 was 3,259 yuan/500 kg with a - 1.36% decline, and the closing price of egg 2510 was 3,298 yuan/500 kg with a - 1.96% decline. The trend intensity of eggs is 0 [30] Live Pigs - **Fundamentals**: Henan's live - pig spot price was 14,330 yuan/ton, Sichuan's was 13,600 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's was 15,640 yuan/ton. The market is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The trend intensity of live pigs is 0 [33][34][35] Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 8,600 yuan/ton. The closing price of PK510 was 8,082 yuan/ton with a - 0.39% decline, and the closing price of PK511 was 7,948 yuan/ton with a - 0.60% decline. The peanut market in different regions showed different trends. The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [37][38][39]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Fuel oil turned weaker during the night session and is expected to enter a short - term consolidation phase. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues its consolidation trend, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: - For fuel oil futures, FU2509 closed at 2,933 yuan/ton, down 0.78%, with a settlement price of 2,953 yuan/ton, up 0.31%. FU2510 closed at 2,949 yuan/ton, up 0.31%, with a settlement price of 2,969 yuan/ton, up 0.64%. - For low - sulfur fuel oil futures, LU2509 closed at 3,655 yuan/ton, down 1.00%, with a settlement price of 3,672 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. LU2510 closed at 3,676 yuan/ton, down 0.08%, with a settlement price of 3,697 yuan/ton, up 0.19% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - The trading volume of FU2509 was 403,993 lots, a decrease of 79,435 lots, and the open interest was 148,798 lots, a decrease of 18,854 lots. - The trading volume of FU2510 was 185,899 lots, an increase of 15,400 lots, and the open interest was 83,718 lots, a decrease of 12,634 lots. - For LU2509, the trading volume was 12,574 lots, an increase of 2,637 lots, and the open interest was 14,320 lots, a decrease of 2,701 lots. - The trading volume of LU2510 was 116,200 lots, a decrease of 220 lots, and the open interest was 60,855 lots, a decrease of 5,550 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: - The total market warehouse receipts for fuel oil (FU) were 110,980, with no change, and for low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) were 40,050, with no change [1]. - **Spot Prices**: - In Singapore, the MOPS price of 3.5%S fuel was 411.4 dollars/ton, down 0.26%, and the 0.5%S low - sulfur fuel was 511.8 dollars/ton, down 0.53%. - The Singapore Bunker price of 3.5%S fuel was 426.0 dollars/ton, unchanged, and the 0.5%S low - sulfur fuel was 526.0 dollars/ton, down 0.19%. - Similar price changes were observed in other regions such as Fujeirah, Zhoushan, Shanghai, Tokyo, and South Korea [1]. - **Price Spreads**: - The spread between FU09 - 10 was - 16 yuan/ton, unchanged from the settlement spread. The spread between LU09 - 10 was - 21 yuan/ton, with a difference of - 4 yuan/ton compared to the settlement spread. The spread between LU09 - FU09 was 722 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton compared to the settlement spread. - Other spreads such as FU2509 - Singapore MOPS (3.5%S) decreased by 15.3 yuan/ton, LU2509 - Singapore MOPS (0.5%S) decreased by 17.4 yuan/ton, and the spread between Singapore MOPS (0.5%S - 3.5%S) decreased by 1.6 dollars/ton [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of fuel oil is 0, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 indicates the most bearish outlook and 2 indicates the most bullish outlook [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The market fundamentals of the container shipping index (European line) are expected to face further pressure, with a likely pattern of reduced supply and demand in September. The trading logic for the main 2510 contract remains to go short on rallies. The impact of the anti - involution policy on the container shipping industry is currently limited, and attention should be paid to the influence of Sino - US tariff negotiations on the macro sentiment of EC. It is recommended to hold short positions for the 2510 contract [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Performance - The container shipping index (European line) showed weak operation yesterday. The main 2510 contract closed at 1425.1 points, down 4.66% and reduced positions by 3056 lots; the second - main 2512 contract closed at 1692.3 points, down 3.59% and reduced positions by 45 lots; the near - month 2508 contract closed at 2121.6 points, down 0.66% and reduced positions by 724 lots [7]. 3.2 Spot Freight Rates - The PA alliance increased the price - cut intensity, with the market freight rate center in the 2nd adjustment of August falling to the range of $3100 - 3200/FEU. Different alliances and shipping companies also adjusted their freight rates, such as the Gemini alliance, Maersk, and the 20A alliance. The PA alliance's weekly price - cut range expanded to $400/FEU, and the MSG 33 - week shipping schedule was adjusted down by $300 to $3340/FEU [8]. 3.3 Fundamentals (Supply - side) - In the supply - side, the AEU3 canceled sailings in week 34. Cosco & OOCL made ship - axis adjustments. Maersk's overtime ship MAERSK EMDEN confirmed its port calls. August's weekly capacity was slightly revised up from 32.4 million TEU to 32.7 million TEU, with extremely high capacity pressure in week 34. September's weekly capacity was revised down from 32.1 to 31.8 million TEU, a - 3% month - on - month decrease compared to August, a + 5.7% increase compared to July, and on par with April's capacity level [9]. 3.4 Market Trends and Strategies - From a monthly perspective, September is likely to see a pattern of reduced supply and demand, but the decline in the currently - counted capacity may be less than that in demand. The trading logic for the main 2510 contract is to go short on rallies. It is recommended to hold short positions for the 10 contract [10].

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy" dated August 1, 2025, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel Core View - Nickel is expected to experience low - level fluctuations; stainless steel's real - world fundamentals are being verified, and the macro - sentiment is waning [2]. Fundamental Data - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,720 yuan, down 80 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 153,323 lots, an increase of 33,388 lots [5]. - For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 12,920 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The trading volume was 153,403 lots, an increase of 14,642 lots [5]. Macro and Industry News - Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats. An Indonesian nickel - iron project has entered the trial - production stage. Environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park, and potential fines may be imposed. Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period and has approved a higher nickel production target for 2025. Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia have suspended production due to losses [5][6][7]. Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [9]. Lithium Carbonate Core View - The C - structure of lithium carbonate has declined, and attention should be paid to the August delivery situation [2]. Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2509 contract was 68,280 yuan, down 2,320 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 521,849 lots, a decrease of 271,060 lots [11]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased. Mt Marion's lithium concentrate production and shipments decreased in Q2 2025, while Wodgina's production and shipments increased [12][13]. Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 0 [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Core View - For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to the upstream resumption of production progress; for polysilicon, the short - term sentiment has cooled, and the market should be treated as a callback [2]. Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2509 contract for industrial silicon was 8,760 yuan/ton, down 525 yuan from the previous day. The closing price of the PS2509 contract for polysilicon was 49,130 yuan/ton, down 5,575 yuan [15]. Macro and Industry News - A notice was issued to regulate the use of cultivated land in photovoltaic projects [16]. Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: - 1; polysilicon trend intensity: - 1 [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The FOMC released hawkish expectations [2][4]. - Silver: Prices retreated from high levels [2][4]. - Copper: Rising spot premiums limited price declines [2][10]. - Zinc: Inventories continued to accumulate [2][13]. - Lead: Increasing inventories pressured prices [2][16]. - Tin: Prices oscillated within a range [2][19]. - Aluminum: Prices trended downward with fluctuations [2][24]. - Alumina: Prices reverted to fundamentals [2][24]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Prices followed those of electrolytic aluminum [2][24]. - Nickel: Prices oscillated at low levels [2][27]. - Stainless Steel: The actual fundamentals were verified, and macro - sentiment faded [2][28]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Fundamentals**: For gold, the closing price of SHFE Gold 2510 was 770.28 with a daily decline of 0.45%, and the night - session closing price was 770.92 with a 0.12% increase. The SPDR Gold ETF's position decreased by 1. For silver, the closing price of SHFE Silver 2510 was 9008 with a 2.00% decline, and the night - session closing price was 8935.00 with a 1.37% decline. The SLV Silver ETF's position (the day before yesterday) decreased by 88 [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fed's favorite inflation indicator unexpectedly rebounded, with the US core PCE price index in June rising 2.8% year - on - year, hitting a four - month high. The world gold council reported that central banks' gold purchases in Q2 reached a three - year low, and ETFs took over to support gold demand [9]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver both had a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [8]. 3.2 Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE Copper main contract was 78,040 with a 1.13% decline, and the night - session closing price was 78010 with a 0.04% decline. The spot premium over the near - month futures contract increased by 55 to 165 [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump increased the tariff on Canada from 25% to 35%, and the US - Mexico tariff agreement was extended by 90 days. Trump also imposed a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products starting August 1 [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper had a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12]. 3.3 Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE Zinc main contract was 22345 with a 1.43% decline. The LME Zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price was 2795.5 with a 0.68% decline. LME Zinc inventories decreased by 4250 tons [13]. - **News**: The US was pressuring multiple countries on tariffs, and Trump announced an agreement with South Korea and planned to negotiate with India [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc had a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [14]. 3.4 Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE Lead main contract was 16735 with a 0.92% decline. The LME Lead 3M electronic - disk closing price was 1992 with a 1.39% decline. SHFE Lead inventories increased by 426 tons [16]. - **News**: The Fed's favorite inflation indicator unexpectedly rebounded, and the US - Mexico tariff agreement was extended by 90 days [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead had a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [17]. 3.5 Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE Tin main contract was 265,290 with a 0.96% decline, and the night - session closing price was 264,200 with a 0.74% decline. The SMM 1 tin ingot price decreased by 2,600 to 265,500 [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, including tariff news and inflation data [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin had a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [23]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE Aluminum main contract was 20510, down 115. The closing price of the SHFE Alumina main contract was 3222, down 104. The closing price of the Aluminum Alloy main contract was 19950, down 120 [24]. - **Comprehensive News**: The US - Mexico tariff agreement was extended by 90 days, and Mexico would continue to pay certain tariffs during this period [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum had a trend intensity of 0 (neutral), Alumina had a trend intensity of - 1 (bearish), and Aluminum Alloy had a trend intensity of 0 (neutral) [26]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE Nickel main contract was 121,720, down 80. The closing price of the Stainless Steel main contract was 12,920, unchanged. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 912, up 1 [28]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The governor of Ontario, Canada, threatened to stop exporting nickel to the US. An Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production phase, and environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park [28][29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both Nickel and Stainless Steel had a trend intensity of 0 (neutral) [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to show a relatively strong oscillatory trend supported by macro - expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are likely to experience a weakening oscillatory trend as market sentiment cools [2][8][9]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are subject to weakening oscillatory trends due to macro - sentiment disturbances [2][13]. - Coke and coking coal are expected to have wide - range oscillations as market sentiment is realized [2][17][18]. - Steam coal is expected to stabilize with oscillations as daily consumption recovers [2][22]. - Logs are expected to have repeated oscillations [2][26]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2509 futures contract was 779.0 yuan/ton, down 10.0 yuan/ton (-1.27%). The open - position decreased by 32,551 lots. Spot prices of various iron ores remained unchanged. The basis and spreads showed some changes, with the basis of I2509 against Super Special increasing by 10.0 yuan/ton [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5]. 3.2 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the RB2510 rebar futures contract was 3,205 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton (-4.19%), and the HC2510 hot - rolled coil futures contract was 3,390 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton (-3.56%). Spot prices in various regions decreased. Production, inventory, and apparent demand data changed in the weekly data on July 31 [9][10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On July 31, steel output, inventory, and apparent demand data showed different trends. The Politburo meeting proposed to manage enterprise disorderly competition and promote capacity governance in key industries [10][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [9][11]. 3.3 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 50 yuan/ton. Various price spreads showed different changes [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price and production data for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions in July. The production and transportation data of manganese ore from Comilog in the second quarter of 2025 were released [14][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [16]. 3.4 Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of coke and coking coal decreased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke in some regions changed. There were also changes in basis and spreads. The open - position of some contracts decreased [18]. - **Price and Open - Position Situation**: There were coking coal quotes at northern ports and the CCI metallurgical coal index on July 31. The open - position changes of some contracts among the top 20 members of the DCE were provided [18][19][20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20]. 3.5 Steam Coal - **Previous Day's Domestic Market**: The ZC2508 steam coal contract had no trading the previous day. The previous opening price was 931.6000 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 840.0000 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton [23]. - **Fundamentals**: There were quotes for imported steam coal at southern ports and domestic steam coal at production areas. The open - position of the ZC2508 contract among the top 20 members of the ZCE did not change on July 31 [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of steam coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [25]. 3.6 Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Closing prices, trading volumes, and open - positions of different log futures contracts showed different changes. Spot - futures spreads and inter - contract spreads also changed [27]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Politburo decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October and analyzed the current economic situation and deployed the second - half economic work [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [29].