2025 年 10 月 16 日 LPG：低位相对抗跌，成本压力仍存 丙烯：需求转弱，短期弱势运行 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2511 | 4,148 | 0.27% | 4,138 | -0.24% | | 期货价格 | PG2512 | 4,019 | 0.98% | 4,014 | -0.12% | | | PL2601 | 6,079 | -0.08% | 6,050 | -0.48% | | | PL2602 | 6,106 | -0.38% | 6,081 | -0.41% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2511 | 55,161 | -18305 | 46,309 | -5825 | | 持仓& ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon is in a weak and volatile trend [1]. - Polysilicon's futures market is running strongly, and attention should be paid to the content of today's meeting [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: - Industrial silicon (Si2511): The closing price is 8,570 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 70 yuan compared to T - 5 and 250 yuan compared to T - 22; the trading volume is 225,068 lots, showing a decreasing trend; the open interest is 142,381 lots, also decreasing [2]. - Polysilicon (PS2511): The closing price is 50,865 yuan/ton, an increase of 875 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume is 276,176 lots; the open interest is 80,114 lots [2]. - **Basis**: - Industrial silicon: The spot premium or discount varies according to different benchmarks, such as +830 yuan/ton for East China Si5530 and +330 yuan/ton for East China Si4210 [2]. - Polysilicon: The spot premium for N - type re - investment is +1385 yuan/ton [2]. - **Prices**: - Industrial silicon: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8,850 yuan/ton, and Yunnan Si4210 is 9,950 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: The price of N - type re - investment material is 52,750 yuan/ton [2]. - **Profits**: - Industrial silicon: The profit of Xinjiang new standard 553 silicon plant is - 2,699.5 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan new standard 553 is - 3,638 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: The profit of polysilicon enterprises is - 14.0 yuan/kg [2]. - **Inventory**: - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 54.5 million tons, the enterprise inventory is 16.8 million tons, and the industry inventory is 71.3 million tons [2]. - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory is 24.0 million tons [2]. - **Raw Material Costs**: - Industrial silicon: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes vary in different regions [2]. - Polysilicon: The prices of related products such as trichlorosilane, silicon powder, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA are provided [2]. - Organic silicon: The price of DMC is 11,300 yuan/ton, and the enterprise profit is - 830 yuan/ton [2]. - Aluminum alloy: The price of ADC12 is 21,050 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is 130 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On October 15, 2025, the State Grid Xinjiang Electric Power Co., Ltd. announced the results of the competitive bidding for the mechanism electricity price of incremental new energy projects in 2025. The mechanism electricity price for wind power is 0.252 yuan/kWh with a scale of 18,539,219,756 kWh, and for photovoltaic power is 0.235 yuan/kWh with a scale of 3,608,399,178 kWh [2][4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, indicating a neutral trend; the trend intensity of polysilicon is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The spot price of lithium carbonate remains firm, and the short - term range - bound oscillation is expected to continue [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 72,720, with a decrease compared to previous periods; the trading volume was 225,238, also showing a decline; the open interest was 188,523, down from previous levels. For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 72,940, the trading volume was 99,329, and the open interest was 212,472, with different changes compared to previous periods [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 33,076, showing a decrease [2]. - **Basis**: Various basis data such as spot - 2511, spot - 2601, etc., showed different changes over time [2]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 828, lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,725, and prices of different lithium salts also had their respective changes [2]. - **Lithium Salt Industry Chain**: Battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000, industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,750, and prices of other related products in the lithium salt industry chain also changed over time [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Lithium Carbonate Price**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,037 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous workday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,750 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous workday [3]. - **Electric Vehicle Charging Facility Plan**: The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued the "Three - Year Doubling Action Plan for the Service Capacity of Electric Vehicle Charging Facilities (2025 - 2027)". By the end of 2027, 28 million charging facilities will be built nationwide, providing over 300 million kilowatts of public charging capacity to meet the charging needs of over 80 million electric vehicles [4]. - **Power Battery Data**: In September 2025, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 151.2GWh, a month - on - month increase of 8.3% and a year - on - year increase of 35.4%. The sales volume was 146.5GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 9.0% and a year - on - year increase of 42.2%. The total export volume was 26.7GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year increase of 28.3% [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4].

Report Date - October 16, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is facing shipment pressure [1] - The trend strength of asphalt is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: - BU2511 closed at 3,250 yuan/ton yesterday, down 1.22%, and 3,246 yuan/ton in the night session, down 0.12%. Its trading volume was 112,815 lots, an increase of 12,090 lots, and the open interest was 82,783 lots, a decrease of 16,325 lots [2] - BU2512 closed at 3,184 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.84%, and 3,180 yuan/ton in the night session, down 0.13%. Its trading volume was 43,274 lots, a decrease of 9,101 lots, and the open interest was 82,394 lots, a decrease of 2,167 lots [2] - The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 42,370 lots, with no change [2] - **Spread**: - The basis (Shandong - 11) was 200 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from the previous day [2] - The 11 - 12 inter - period spread was 66 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [2] - The Shandong - South China spread was 0, down 10 [2] - The East China - South China spread was 70 yuan/ton, with no change [2] - **Spot Market**: - The Shandong wholesale price was 3,450 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,451 yuan/ton, and the warehouse - spot equivalent was 3,572 yuan/ton [2] - The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,520 yuan/ton, with no change. The factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,444 yuan/ton, and the warehouse - spot equivalent was 3,485 yuan/ton [2] - **Operating and Inventory Rates**: - The refinery operating rate was 42.77% on October 13, up 4.47% from October 9 [2] - The refinery inventory rate was 28.70% on October 13, up 2.23% from October 9 [2] Market News - From October 9 - 15, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 35.8%, a 1.3% increase from the previous week. Some refineries in Henan, Shandong and Shandong stopped production or switched to residue production, while some refineries in East China and Jiangsu had intermittent production [17] - From October 7 - 14, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 39.3 tons, a 2.9% increase from the previous week. The shipments in East China and Northeast China increased significantly [17] - From October 8 - 14, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 12.6%, a 4.7% decrease from before the holiday and a 2.5% decrease year - on - year. The demand in the north decreased due to cold weather, and continuous rainfall in Central China also suppressed demand [17]

杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 （11合约） | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） （手） | 10,895 | 10,780 | 115 -4756 | | | | | | 60,255 | 65,011 | | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 24,468 | 29,075 | -4607 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 325,556 | 351,989 | -26433 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | 155 | 270 | -115 | | | 月差 | BR11-BR12 | | 60 | 35 | 25 | | | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 10,750 | 10,800 | -50 | | | | 华东顺丁 | （民营） | 10,95 ...

2025 年 10 月 16 日 燃料油：夜盘小幅反弹，短期弱势仍在 低硫燃料油：短期继续弱于高硫，外盘现货高 低硫价差再次收窄 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨 跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2511 | 元/吨 | 2.739 | -0. 40% | | 2.725 | -1. 38% | | | | FU2512 | 元/晓 | 2.697 | -1. 38% | | 2,685 | -1.76% | | | | LU2511 | 元/晓 | 3.140 | -1.60% | | 3.141 | -1.97% | | | | LU2512 | 元/晓 | 3,155 | -1.97% | | 3.158 | -1.80% | | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | | FU ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The logic of secondary fattening has led to a downward shift in expectations for the hog market [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 11,130 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price is 10,650 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price is 11,360 yuan/ton, all with a year - on - year increase of 100 [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of hog futures contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 11,400 yuan/ton, 12,195 yuan/ton, and 11,665 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 50, 210, and 170 [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of hog futures contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 42,981, 51,477, and 15,921 hands respectively, with decreases of 22,605, 5,785, and 2,048 hands compared to the previous day. The open interests are 44,805, 90,900, and 75,471 hands respectively, with changes of - 3,846, + 3,086, and + 4,275 hands compared to the previous day [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of hog futures contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are - 270, - 1065, and - 535 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year increases of 150, 310, and 270. The spreads between contracts 11 - 1 and 1 - 3 are - 795 and 530 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of 160 and - 40 [2]. 3.2 Market Information - Guizhou Zhenfeng Fuyuan registered 21 hands of warehouse receipts [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [4].

2025 年 10 月 16 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：产地驱动有限，反套继续持有 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 豆油主力 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 9,322 8,252 | -0.09% 0.15% | 9,322 8,234 | 0.00% -0.22% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,932 | -0.27% | 9,922 | -0.10% | | | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,474 | 0.31% | 4,480 | 0.07% | | 期 货 | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 50.83 | 0.51% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 448,936 | -77751 | 353,041 | 2,263 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 206,030 | -52,90 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton market is expected to experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of CF2601 was 13,270 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.04%, and the night - session closing price was 13,260 yuan/ton with a decrease of 0.08%. The trading volume was 247,183 lots, a decrease of 10,728 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 872,239 lots, an increase of 21,496 lots. The closing price of CY2601 was 19,325 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.18%, and the night - session closing price was 19,335 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.05%. The trading volume of ICE Cotton No.12 was 63.83 cents/pound with an increase of 0.63% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 2,773, a decrease of 50 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 96, an increase of 44. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 6, a decrease of 6 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,407 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan from the previous day with a rise of 0.03%. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,255 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan from the previous day with a rise of 0.04%. The price in Shandong was 14,676 yuan/ton, a decrease of 82 yuan from the previous day with a decline of 0.56%. The price in Hebei was 14,617 yuan/ton, a decrease of 108 yuan from the previous day with a decline of 0.73%. The 3128B index was 14,674 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81 yuan from the previous day with a decline of 0.55%. The international cotton index M was 71.18 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.04 cents from the previous day with a decline of 0.06%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,440 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 21,224 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan from the previous day with a decline of 0.14% [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread was - 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan from the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,140 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot Situation**: Cotton spot trading was average. Spinning mills maintained just - in - time procurement, and the spot basis was generally stable, with some discounts for old cotton batches. The mainstream purchase price of 40% lint percentage machine - picked seed cotton in Northern Xinjiang was stable at 6.0 - 6.1 yuan/kg, and some higher purchase prices were around 6.2 yuan/kg. The pre - sale basis of 2025/26 Aksu area machine - picked cotton 41 double 29 with impurity within 3 was around CF01 + 900, for delivery before November 30 and self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The sales basis of 2025/26 Agricultural Division 8 machine - picked 41 - grade cotton without light pollution 30/30B with impurity within 3.5 ranged from CF01 + 1200 to 1300. The sales basis of some 22 - grade double 29 cotton in Northern Xinjiang was CF01 + 650 and above, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The transaction price of a small amount of 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity between 3 - 3.5 was CF01 + 1000 - 1150, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises Situation**: The quotation of the pure - cotton yarn market was mainly stable, but the actual transaction price was weak, and the trading atmosphere was somewhat subdued. Current downstream procurement was still mainly for immediate needs, and small and medium - sized traders mostly made back - to - back purchases. Some manufacturers reported that seasonal orders for thick and coarse varieties had improved slightly, while the sales of regular combed yarn were still slow [2]. - **US Cotton Situation**: The ICE cotton futures rebounded slightly yesterday, still affected by the market's sentiment towards the international economic and trade situation and following the overall trend of the bulk commodity market [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral situation. The range of trend intensity values is in the [-2, 2] integer interval, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5].

2025 年 10 月 16 日 烧碱：短期反弹，高度或有限 商 品 研 究 | | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | chenjiaxin2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | 烧碱基本面数据 | | | | | 01合约期货价格 | 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 | 山东现货32碱折盘面 | 基差 | | 2438 | 800 | 2500 | 62 | 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 以山东地区为基准，10 月 15 日山东液碱市场局部稳定运行，部分区域库存低位走货较好支撑价格上 调。东部市场近期非铝提货转好，部分库存减少；南部库存不高，走货暂可，价格上调。 【市场状况分析】 10 月山东、河北地区存在新增检修，烧碱供应压力不大。需求端，河北氧化铝厂集中采购烧碱，下周 山东地区预期去库，短期山东市场现货偏强。从氧化铝行业看，氧化铝高产量、高库存格局，使得利润被持 续压缩，边际产能供应未来可能受利润影响。虽然广西地区年底到明年年初存在 560 万吨新增产能的备货 需求，后期氧化铝备货将带动 ...