铝：偏强运行 氧化铝：检修增加 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 28 日 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 24305 | 90 | રૂરિક | 2390 | 3325 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 24350 | ー | ー | l | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 3213 | 17 | 94 | 307 | 467 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 413754 | -97136 | -33779 | 229656 | 233876 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 311897 | -10190 | -20853 | 17907 | ...

2026年01月28日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲刺100 | 3 | | 铜：美元回落，价格偏强 | 5 | | 锌：高位震荡 | 7 | | 铅：LME库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：高位震荡 | 10 | | 铝：偏强运行 | 11 | | 氧化铝：检修增加 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：震荡向上 | 13 | | 钯：缓步扬头 | 13 | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 15 | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：淡季需求回落有限，宽幅震荡 | 17 | | 工业硅：上游减产，盘面底部支撑 | 19 | | 多晶硅：关注今日会议整体情况 | 19 | | 铁矿石：刚需仍存，价格震荡 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 硅铁：原料短期价格松动，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：原料短期价格松动，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦炭：产业叠加资金配合，区间震荡 | 26 | ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 28 日 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 | 钯：缓步扬头 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 期货研究 铂：震荡向上 资料来源：同花顺，Wind，彭博，国泰君安期货 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】（资料来源：金十数据） 【趋势强度】 铂趋势强度：0；钯趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示最看空，2 表示最看多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 1、特朗普：不担心美元贬值，可以让其像悠悠球一样涨跌。 2、美联储传声筒：美联储预计将暂停降息，恢复降息的路径尚不明确。 3、特朗普：美国已向伊朗方向派遣了一支庞大的海军舰队，但希望最终无需动用武力。 4、美国中情局正在秘密开展工作，计划在委内瑞拉境内建立常设美国据点。 5、欧盟卫星通信计划已启动，该计划汇集 27 个成员国政府 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 28 日 铜：美元回落，价格偏强 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 【宏观及行业新闻】 宏观方面，有"新美联储通讯社"之称的知名财经记者 Nick Timiraos 撰文称，美联储官员们预计将 在本周自去年 9 月以来首次暂停降息，在连续三次下调利率后选择按兵不动。（华尔街见闻） 产业方面，日本矿业协会（JMIA）负责人表示，日本铜冶炼厂仍在与全球矿商谈判 2026 年的加工和精 炼费用（TC/RC），即使每吨 300 美元以上的高升水也无法抵消 TC/RC 的下降影响。（SMM） 智利环境监管机构表示，已对安托法加斯塔矿业公司（ Antofagasta Minerals）处以约 77.5 万美 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 102,600 | 0.71% | 101560 | ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for the tin industry is "High-level oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core View - The trend strength of tin is 0, indicating a neutral stance, with the range of trend strength being an integer within [-2, 2] [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures and Spot Electronic Disk Data**: - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai tin yesterday was 451,160, with a daily increase of 6.07%, and the closing price of the night session was 436,450, with a decrease of -3.26%. The trading volume was 351,975, a decrease of 213,201 compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 55,071, a decrease of 162 [2]. - The closing price of the LME 3M electronic disk of tin yesterday was 54,865, with a daily increase of 0.68%. The trading volume was 1,437, an increase of 264 compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 24,818, an increase of 612 [2]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Data**: - The futures inventory of Shanghai tin was 8,553, a decrease of 71 compared to the previous day. The inventory of LME tin was 7,085, and the cancellation warrant ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of -0.38% compared to the previous day [2]. - **Spot and Price Difference Data**: - The price of SMM 1 tin ingot was 428,400, a decrease of 6,450 compared to the previous day. The average price of Yangtze River Nonferrous 1 tin was 426,300, a decrease of 10,500 compared to the previous day [2]. - The LME tin (spot/three - month) premium was -243, an increase of 2 compared to the previous day. The spread between the nearby contract and the consecutive first contract was 254,790, unchanged from the previous day. The spread between the spot and the futures main contract was 960, a decrease of 6,270 compared to the previous day [2]. - **Industrial Chain Key Price Data**: - The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 414,400, a decrease of 6,450 compared to the previous day. The price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 418,400, a decrease of 6,450 compared to the previous day [2]. - The price of 63A solder bar was 282,750, a decrease of 4,000 compared to the previous day. The price of 60A solder bar was 270,250, a decrease of 4,000 compared to the previous day [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - US consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest level since 2014, with a more pessimistic view of the economy and employment [4]. - The Japanese Finance Minister stated that if necessary, Japan will coordinate with the US to take appropriate actions regarding exchange - rate fluctuations [4]. - Meta has reached an agreement with Corning, a supplier to Apple, and will pay $6 billion for data - center optical cables [4]. - India has cancelled tariffs on over 90% of EU goods and provided an import quota of 250,000 cars [4]

2026 年 1 月 28 日 胶版印刷纸：逢高沽空，3-4 反套 石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 shiyining@gtht.com | 市场 | 区域 | 纸种 | 2026/1/27 | 2026/1/26 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 70g天阳 70g晨鸣云镜 | 4475 4675 | 4475 4675 | 0 0 | | | 山东市场 | | | | | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 4725 | 4725 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | 70g本白牡丹 | 4450 | 4450 | 0 | | | | 70g天阳 | 4400 | 4400 | 0 | | | 广东市场 | 70g晨鸣云豹 | 4600 | 4600 | 0 | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 4700 | 4700 | 0 | | | | 含税收入 | 4725 | 4725 | 0 | | | 税前 | 含税成本 | 5207 | 5215 | -8 | | | | 税前毛利 | -482 | -490 | 8 | | 成本利润 ...

2026 年 01 月 28 日 短纤：短期回调，高位震荡 20260128 瓶片：短期回调，高位震荡 20260128 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2602 | ୧୧୧୫ | 6828 | -170 | PF02-03 | -4 | 2 | -6 | | PF | 短纤2603 | 6662 | 6826 | -164 | PF03-04 | -46 | -6 | -40 | | | 短纤2604 | 6708 | 6832 | -124 | PF主力基差 | -2 | -96 | 04 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 255805 | 189740 | ୧୧୦୧5 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6, 660 | 6.730 | -70 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 205016 | 193912 | 11104 | 短纤产销率 | ୧୫% ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend strength is from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2]. 2. Report's Core View - The demand for live pigs is underperforming expectations, and attention should be paid to supply contradictions [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of live pigs in Henan is 13,180 yuan/ton, unchanged year-on-year; in Sichuan, it is 12,850 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year-on-year; in Guangdong, it is 12,960 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton year-on-year [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of live pig futures contract 2603 is 11,285 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton year-on-year; contract 2605 is 11,695 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton year-on-year; contract 2607 is 12,375 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton year-on-year [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of contract 2603 is 69,670 lots, an increase of 16,018 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 127,642 lots, a decrease of 5,752 lots. The trading volume of contract 2605 is 33,228 lots, an increase of 2,559 lots, and the open interest is 115,715 lots, an increase of 1,816 lots. The trading volume of contract 2607 is 6,532 lots, an increase of 1,652 lots, and the open interest is 46,583 lots, an increase of 383 lots [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of contract 2603 is 1,895 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan/ton year-on-year; the basis of contract 2605 is 1,485 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton year-on-year; the basis of contract 2607 is 805 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton year-on-year. The spread between contracts 2603 and 2605 is -410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton year-on-year; the spread between contracts 2605 and 2607 is -680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton year-on-year [1].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The demand for lithium carbonate declines slightly in the off - season, and the price shows a wide - range fluctuation [1] - Since 2026, the sodium - battery industry has achieved breakthroughs, and the entire industry chain is accelerating its implementation. Sodium batteries are expected to replace or supplement lead - acid batteries and some lithium batteries in multiple fields in 2026 [3] 3. Content Summaries by Sections Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For the 2605 contract, the closing price is 179,600 yuan, the trading volume is 382,313, and the open interest is 422,433. For the 2607 contract, the closing price is 179,980 yuan, the trading volume is 55,497, and the open interest is 120,428. The warehouse receipt volume is 29,166 hands [1] - **Basis Data**: The basis of spot - 2605 is - 7,100 yuan, spot - 2607 is - 7,480 yuan, 2605 - 2607 is - 380 yuan, electric carbon - industrial carbon is 3,500 yuan, and spot - CIF is 22,912 yuan [1] - **Raw Material Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 2,205 dollars, and the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 5,190 yuan [1] - **Lithium Salt and Related Product Data**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 172,500 yuan, industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 169,000 yuan, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) is 171,350 yuan, etc. [1] Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 171,425 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 7,539 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 172,500 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 169,000 yuan/ton, both decreasing by 9,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day [2] - Since 2026, leading companies in the sodium - battery industry have taken frequent actions. Sodium batteries are expected to be commercially launched on a large scale in 2026, with the potential to replace or supplement lead - acid batteries and some lithium batteries in multiple fields [3] Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

棉花：维持偏强震荡 20260128 2026 年 1 月 28 日 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2605 | 元/吨 | 14,565 | -0.58% | 14655 | 0.62% 0.71% | | | CY2603 | 元/吨 | 20,420 | -0.46% | 20565 | | | | ICE美棉3 | 美分/磅 | 63.78 | 1.33% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2605 | 手 | 344,386 | -300,084 | 1,117,427 | -28,316 | | | CY2603 | 手 | 7,831 | -1,999 | 11,175 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较 ...