2025 年 10 月 16 日 短纤：成交支撑，下方空间不大 瓶片：现货成交支撑，下方空间不大 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2511 | 6074 | 6098 | -24 | PF11-12 | 24 | 38 | -14 | | PF | 短纤2512 | 6050 | 6060 | -10 | PF12-01 | -14 | -116 | 102 | | | 短纤2601 | 6064 | 6176 | -112 | PF主力基美 | 255 | 260 | -5 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 119500 | 163254 | -43754 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6, 305 | 6. 320 | -15 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Stock index options are experiencing an upward trend with decreasing volatility, and the bearish sentiment is declining. A covered call strategy can be considered [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Market Data Statistics - **Underlying Market Statistics**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Composite 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, and other indices all rose, while the trading volumes decreased. For example, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index closed at 3001.35, up 40.25, with a trading volume of 63.38 billion hands, a decrease of 22.81 billion hands [3] - **Option Market Statistics**: The trading volumes of most options decreased, while the positions of some options increased. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Composite 50 Index options was 55,008, a decrease of 13,785, and the position was 77,675, an increase of 183 [3] 3.2 Option Volatility Statistics - **Near - Month Options**: The implied volatility (ATM - IV) of most options decreased. For example, the ATM - IV of Shanghai Composite 50 Index options was 14.62%, a decrease of 2.70% [6] - **Next - Month Options**: The ATM - IV of most options also decreased. For example, the ATM - IV of Shanghai Composite 50 Index options was 16.06%, a decrease of 1.87% [6] 3.3 Option Indicator Data Statistics - **PCR and Skew**: The report provides the PCR (volume and position) and skew data of various options, which can be used to analyze market sentiment and risk [3][6] 3.4 Option Charts - **Volatility Charts**: Include the volatility trends of the main contracts of various options, such as the Shanghai Composite 50 Index option, CSI 300 Index option, etc., which can help investors understand the volatility changes of options [10][12][14] - **PCR Charts**: Show the volume and position PCR trends of all contracts of various options, reflecting the market's bullish and bearish sentiment [10][17][20] - **Volatility Cone and Term Structure Charts**: Present the volatility cone and term structure of various options, helping investors analyze the volatility characteristics and term structure of options [10][16][24]

Group 1: Report Title and Basic Information - Report title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 170, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release date: October 14, 2025 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The main target has fallen below the 50 - yuan mark and may test the historical bottom [5] - It is recommended that gap - enterprises make batch purchases at low prices before the end of October [6] - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may be the real support for the reversal of carbon prices. Although it is expected that the mandatory circulation allowances will be exhausted by October, anticipatory trading may cause the carbon price to reverse in Q3 [6] - Starting from September, key emission units will gradually formulate trading plans based on the allocation of verified allowances, accelerating the release of mandatory circulation allowances and putting pressure on carbon prices. By the end of October, as the compliance pressure gradually emerges and the release of mandatory circulation allowances nears its end, upward momentum may accumulate and carbon prices may enter a stage of trending recovery [7] Group 4: Market Conditions CEA - The main target has fallen to around 50 yuan. The listed volume is 596,000 tons, and the bulk volume is 506,000 tons [6] - For different CEA years: CEA19 - 20 closed at 65 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change; CEA21 at 59 yuan/ton (0.00% change); CEA22 at 60 yuan/ton (0.00% change); CEA23 at 46.08 yuan/ton (- 9.49% change); CEA24 at 49.03 yuan/ton (- 3.54% change). The new - old price differences are - 6 yuan/ton for CEA21, 1 yuan/ton for CEA22, - 13.92 yuan/ton for CEA23, and 2.95 yuan/ton for CEA24. The total trading volume of CEA23 is 3050 tons, and CEA24 is 107,120 tons. The listed agreement volume of CEA23 is 3050 tons, and CEA24 is 56,510 tons. The bulk agreement volume of CEA24 is 50,610 tons, and the total turnover of CEA21 is 1.4055 million yuan, and CEA24 is 47.9568 million yuan [8][9] CCER - The listed agreement trading volume is 5000 tons, and the average transaction price is 64.20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.95%. The turnover is 321,000 yuan, and the cumulative trading volume is 319,810 tons [10] Group 5: Strategies - It is recommended that gap - enterprises make batch purchases at low prices before the end of October [6] Group 6: Core Logic - From September, key emission units will gradually formulate trading plans according to the allocation of verified allowances, accelerating the release of mandatory circulation allowances and putting pressure on carbon prices [7] - By the end of October, as the compliance pressure gradually emerges and the release of mandatory circulation allowances nears its end, upward momentum may accumulate and carbon prices may enter a stage of trending recovery [7] Group 7: Risks - Enterprise irrationality leads to the expiration of allowances; enterprises oversell allowances for cash; non - consideration of cross - industry repurchase risks for allowance avoidance and carry - over; a sharp increase in CCER supply [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the daily, weekly, and monthly data of various non - ferrous and precious metals, including gold, silver, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin, covering aspects such as closing prices, basis, inventory, and import/export profits and losses. 3. Summary by Metal Gold (AU) - **Prices**:沪金主力收盘价今日为125.86元/克，COMEX黄金主力收盘价为4159.60美元/盎司，伦敦黄金现货价格为4083.43美元/盎司等[1]。 - **Basis**:国内基差黄金T + D - 主力合约为 - 1.84元/克，海外基差LBMA黄金现货 - COMEX AU01为 - 63.65美元/盎司[1]。 Silver (AG) - **Prices**:沪银主力收盘价为11966元/千克，COMEX白银主力收盘价为8.99美元/盎司，伦敦白银现货价格为0美元/盎司等[1]。 - **Basis**:国内基差AG(T + D) - 主力合约为135元/克，海外基差LBMA白银现货 - COMEX AG01为 - 50.81美元/盎司[1]。 Copper (CU, BC) - **Prices**:沪铜(CU)主力合约收盘价为85800元/吨，国际铜(BC)主力合约收盘价为1.260元/吨，LME铜3M收盘价为213.50美元/吨等[1]。 - **Basis and Spread**:沪铜月间价差(CU00 - CU01)为 - 390元/吨，国际铜月间价差(BC00 - BC01)为 - 1260.00元/吨，LME铜0 - 3升贴水为132.89美元/吨[1]。 - **Inventory**:沪铜仓单库存为44531吨，国际铜仓单库存为10676吨，LME铜仓单库存为138800吨[1]。 - **Profit and Loss**:铜现货进口盈亏为 - 1907.90元/吨，铜3M进口盈亏为 - 234.22元/吨，精废价差为3148.72元/吨[1]。 Aluminum and Alumina (AL, AO) - **Prices**:沪铝(AL)主力合约收盘价为20910元/吨，氧化铝(AO)主力合约收盘价为 - 132元/吨，LME铝3M收盘价为21.50美元/吨等[1]。 - **Basis and Spread**:沪铝月间价差(AL00 - AL01)为 - 35元/吨，氧化铝铝月间价差(A000 - A001)为7元/吨，LME铝0 - 3升贴水为 - 18.26美元/吨[1]。 - **Inventory**:沪铝仓单库存为71394吨，氧化铝仓单库存为210994吨，LME铝仓单库存为503950吨[1]。 - **Profit and Loss**:电解铝现货进口盈亏为81.62元/吨，电解铝3M进口盈亏为81.62元/吨，氧化铝厂利润为 - 113.22元/吨，电解铝厂冶炼利润为4748.93元/吨，精废价差为30.00元/吨[1]。 Zinc (ZN) - **Prices**:沪锌(ZN)主力合约收盘价为22015元/吨，LME锌3M收盘价为 - 34美元/吨[1]。 - **Basis and Spread**:沪锌月间价差(ZN00 - ZN01)为 - 5元/吨，LME锌0 - 3升贴水为75.22美元/吨[1]。 - **Inventory**:沪锌仓单库存为22985吨，LME锌仓单库存为 - 40500吨[1]。 - **Profit and Loss**:精炼锌现货进口盈亏为 - 3602.02元/吨，精炼锌3M进口盈亏为 - 2735.25元/吨，精炼锌厂冶炼利润为 - 572元/吨[1]。 Lead (PB) - **Prices**:沪铅(PB)主力合约收盘价为17110元/吨，LME铅3M收盘价为10.00美元/吨[1]。 - **Basis and Spread**:沪铝月间价差(PB00 - PB01)为90元/吨，LME铝0 - 3升贴水为0.87美元/吨[1]。 - **Inventory**:沪铝仓单库存为32007吨，LME铝仓单库存为 - 237000吨[1]。 - **Profit and Loss**:精废价差为25元/吨，精炼铅现货进口盈亏为221.94元/吨，精炼铅3M进口盈亏为199.28元/吨，再生铅厂冶炼利润为 - 92.80元/吨[1]。 Nickel and Stainless Steel (NI, SS) - **Prices**:沪镍(NI)主力合约收盘价为121180元/吨，不锈钢(SS)主力合约收盘价为 - 5元/吨，LME镍3M收盘价为15225美元/吨[1]。 - **Basis and Spread**:沪镍月间价差(NI00 - NI01)为420元/吨，不锈钢月间价差(SS00 - SS01)为20元/吨，LME镍0 - 3升贴水为 - 30美元/吨[1]。 - **Inventory**:沪镍仓单库存为26558吨，不锈钢仓单库存为 - 1159吨，LME镍仓单库存为243258吨[1]。 - **Profit and Loss**:精炼镍现货进口盈亏为 - 1096.96元/吨，精炼镍3M进口盈亏为3.47元/吨[1]。 Tin (SN) - **Prices**:沪锡(SN)主力合约收盘价为281710元/吨，LME锡3M收盘价为325美元/吨[1]。 - **Basis and Spread**:沪锡月间价差(SN00 - SN01)为260元/吨，LME锡0 - 3升贴水为 - 269美元/吨[1]。 - **Inventory**:沪锡仓单库存为50吨，LME锡仓单库存为2385吨[1]。 - **Profit and Loss**:精炼锡现货进口盈亏为2433.32元/吨，锡矿加工费为12000元/吨[1]。

2025 年 10 月 15 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：贸易担忧情绪再起，或反弹震荡 豆一：反弹震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2601 （元/吨） | 3967 +0（+0.00%） | 3984 +15（+0.38%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 2902 -34（-1.16%） | 2915 +3（+0.10%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1006.25 -2.0（-0.20%） | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 274.8 +0.3（+0.11%） | n a | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 较昨-10或持平； 2960～2980， 2026年2-4月M2601+10/+20， 持平； | 现货基差M2601+90， 较昨+20； 12-1月M2601+4 ...

2025 年 10 月 15 日 股指期货将震荡整理 黄金、铜期货将偏强震荡 白银期货将 偏强宽幅震荡 螺纹钢、原油、PTA、PVC 期货将偏弱震荡 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2512 阻力位 4549 和 4609 点，支撑位 4498 和 4447 点；IH2512 阻力位 2977 和 2990 点，支撑位 2941 和 2922 点；IC2512 阻力位 7129 和 7262 点，支撑位 6925 和 6797 点；IM2512 阻力位 7257 和 7365 点，支撑位 7095 和 6995 点。 十年期国债期货主力合约 T2512 大概率 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - For both rebar and hot - rolled coil, the combination of weak current situation and weakening expectations may lead to a slight decline in steel prices [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Rebar (RB2601): Yesterday's closing price was 3,061 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.81%); trading volume was 1,158,107 lots, open interest was 1,991,462 lots, with an increase of 38,714 lots [1] - Hot - rolled coil (HC2601): Yesterday's closing price was 3,241 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (-0.70%); trading volume was 532,924 lots, open interest was 1,451,729 lots, with an increase of 29,205 lots [1] - **Spot Price Data**: - Rebar: Prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; Tangshan billet price remained unchanged at 2,940 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis and Spread Data**: - The basis of RB2601 was 149 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous day; the basis of HC2601 was 49 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - RB2601 - RB2605 spread was - 53, up 3; HC2601 - HC2605 spread was 154, up 58; HC2601 - RB2601 spread was 180, up 2; HC2605 - RB2605 spread was 134, down 1; the spot coil - rebar spread was - 16, down 20 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Production Data in Early October 2025**: Key steel enterprises produced 20.32 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.032 million tons (a 7.5% daily increase); 18.75 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.875 million tons (a 3.2% daily increase); 19.61 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.961 million tons (an 8.5% daily decrease). It is estimated that the national daily output of crude steel was 2.51 million tons (a 7.5% increase), pig iron was 2.25 million tons (a 3.2% increase), and steel was 4.07 million tons (a 1.7% decrease) [3] - **Inventory Data in Early October 2025**: The steel inventory of key enterprises was 15.88 million tons, an increase of 1.21 million tons (8.2%) from the previous ten - day period, 3.51 million tons (28.4%) from the beginning of the year, 60,000 tons (0.6%) from the same ten - day period of last month, 1.15 million tons (7.8%) from the same ten - day period of last year, and a decrease of 480,000 tons (2.9%) from the same ten - day period of the year before last [3] - **Import and Export Data in August 2025**: China exported 9.51 million tons of steel, a 3.3% monthly decrease, with an average export price of 698.0 US dollars/ton, basically the same as the previous month. From January to August, the cumulative export was 77.49 million tons, a 9.8% year - on - year increase, with an average export price of 699.1 US dollars/ton, a 10.1% year - on - year decrease. In August, China imported 500,000 tons of steel, a 10.4% monthly increase, with an average import price of 1,653.0 US dollars/ton, an 8.4% monthly decrease. From January to August, the cumulative import was 3.977 million tons, a 14.1% year - on - year decrease, with an average import price of 1,697.7 US dollars/ton, a 1.5% year - on - year increase [3] - **Weekly Data on October 8**: - Production: Rebar production decreased by 36,200 tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 14,000 tons, and the total production of five major varieties decreased by 37,600 tons [3] - Total inventory: Rebar inventory increased by 239,600 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 299,200 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties increased by 692,300 tons [3] - Apparent demand: Rebar apparent demand decreased by 950,600 tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 336,400 tons, and the total apparent demand of five major varieties decreased by 1.6937 million tons [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar is 0, and that of hot - rolled coil is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]

2025 年 10 月 15 日 商 品 研 究 硅铁：主产区报价松动，宽幅震荡 锰硅：锰矿港口报价下移，宽幅震荡 | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅 | 铁2511 | 5378 | -28 | 92,807 | 74,528 | | 期 货 | 硅 | 铁2601 | 5322 | -46 | 87,575 | 173,437 | | | 锰 硅2511 | | 5726 | - 8 | 8,789 | 21,570 | | | 硅2601 锰 | | 5738 | - 8 | 133,881 | 382,892 | | | 项 目 | | ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 15 日 鸡蛋：震荡运行 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 鸡蛋基本面数据 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 | （%） | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2511 | 2,852 | 1.71 | | 67,640 | -32,748 | | | 鸡蛋2601 | 3,237 | 1.70 | | -20,158 | -6,321 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 价 差 | 鸡蛋11-12价差 | | -185 | | -184 | | | | 鸡蛋11-1价差 | | -385 | | -403 | | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 2.80 | | 2.80 | | | | 河北现货价格 | | 2.42 | | 2.49 | | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 2.80 | | 2.80 | | | | 湖北现货价 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 15 日 玉米：有所反弹 尹恺宜 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019456 yinkaiyi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 玉米基本面数据 | | | | | 昨日价格 | | 价格变动 0 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 东北收购均价 | 元/吨 | | n a | | | | | 重要现货 | 锦州平仓 | 元/吨 | | 2,120 | | -20 | | | 价 格 | 华北收购均价 | 元/吨 | | n a | | 0 | | | | 广东蛇口 | 元/吨 | | 2,310 | | -30 | | | | 山东玉米淀粉价格 元/吨 | | | 2,770 | | 0 | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | | 日涨跌% | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌% | | | C2511 | 元/吨 | 2,093 | | -0.66 | 2,096 | 0.14 | | | C2601 | 元/吨 | 2,111 | | -0.14 | 2,118 | 0.33 | | | ...