Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - PX: Valuation is following the cost - end to回调, relatively neutral. Future supply is expected to be loose, and attention should be paid to the subsequent terminal restocking strength and the long PX - short PTA hedging position [5]. - PTA: The processing fee is at a high level, and attention should be paid to the position of narrowing the processing fee. The supply increase space is limited, and the actual implementation of polyester production cuts needs to be observed. The downside space for the unilateral price is limited [6]. - MEG: It shows a short - term strong rebound, and short positions should be closed. Attention should be paid to the spring maintenance execution of coal - chemical ethylene glycol plants, and long the 5 - 9 spread at low prices. The supply pressure is alleviated, and there is strong support at 3,600 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures all declined in the previous trading day. The PX main contract closed at 7,130 with a decline of 1.82%, the PTA main contract closed at 5,048 with a decline of 1.33%, and the MEG main contract closed at 3,817 with a decline of 1.29% [2]. - Regarding the month - spread, the PX5 - 9 month - spread closed at 54, down 6 from the previous day; the PTA5 - 9 month - spread closed at 38, down 8; the MEG5 - 9 month - spread closed at - 111, up 1 [2]. Spot Market - The PX CFR China price was 881.33 dollars/ton, down 16 dollars from the previous day; the PTA East China price was 5,047 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the MEG spot price was 3,677 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan [2]. - The PX - naphtha spread was 339.75 dollars/ton, down 6.17 dollars; the PTA processing fee was 320.45 yuan/ton, down 52.31 yuan [2]. Fundamental Data - PX: The Chinese PX load is 89.4%. The naphtha price declined in the late session, and the PX price also dropped. The 2 - month MOPJ is currently estimated at 554 dollars/ton CFR [3]. - PTA: The Dushan 300 - million - ton plant is restarting and increasing load, while the 360 - million - ton new material plant has shut down. The PTA load is 76.9%, and the calculated PTA operating rate is around 82.9% [3]. - MEG: As of January 15, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland is 74.43% (up 0.5% from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) is 80.21% (up 1.58% from the previous period) [3]. - Polyester: As of Thursday, the domestic polyester load is around 89.9%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers are highly differentiated, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 76%. The sales of polyester yarns in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of about 40% [5]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX is - 1, indicating a weak downward trend; the trend intensity of PTA is - 1, also showing a weak downward trend; the trend intensity of MEG is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: The U.S. biofuel policy is approaching implementation, leading to a warming sentiment in the oil and fat sector [2][4]. - **Soybean Oil**: There are insufficient themes for U.S. soybeans, limiting the rebound height [2][4]. - **Soybean Meal**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and await the progress of China - Canada trade consultations [2][8]. - **Soybean No.1**: Rebound and fluctuate [2][8]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot market [2][11]. - **Sugar**: Predominantly operate weakly [2][15]. - **Cotton**: Continue the adjustment trend [2][20]. - **Eggs**: Spot market is profitable, but the sentiment for far - month contracts is weakening [2][25]. - **Hogs**: Demand expectations are priced in advance [2][28]. - **Peanuts**: Run in a fluctuating manner [2][32]. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,578 yuan/ton with a - 1.94% change, and night - session closing price was 8,646 yuan/ton with a 0.79% change; soybean oil's day - session closing price was 7,938 yuan/ton with a - 0.78% change, and night - session closing price was 8,020 yuan/ton with a 1.03% change. Spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Trump administration is advancing the biofuel policy, expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March, with the quota roughly maintained at the current proposal level. The U.S. 2025 December soybean crushing volume was 2.24991 billion bushels, and the soybean oil inventory was 1.642 billion pounds. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to reach 1.761244 billion tons, a 2.7% increase year - on - year [5][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil trend intensity is 1, and soybean oil trend intensity is 1 [7]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean No.1 2605's day - session closing price was 4333 yuan/ton with a + 0.09% change, and night - session closing price was 4351 yuan/ton with a + 0.65% change; DCE soybean meal 2605's day - session closing price was 2740 yuan/ton with a - 0.33% change, and night - session closing price was 2744 yuan/ton with a - 0.15% change. Spot prices of soybean meal in different regions had different changes [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 15, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to strong export and domestic crushing demand, and the rise in U.S. soybean oil futures. Private exporters reported sales of U.S. soybeans to China and unknown destinations. The Canadian Prime Minister will meet with Chinese leaders, and progress has been made in China - Canada trade consultations [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal trend intensity is 0, and soybean No.1 trend intensity is 0 [10]. Corn - **Fundamentals**: The day - session closing price of C2603 was 2,295 yuan/ton with a 0.83% change, and night - session closing price was 2,294 yuan/ton with a - 0.04% change; the day - session closing price of C2605 was 2,283 yuan/ton with a 0.31% change, and night - session closing price was 2,283 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices were basically stable, and Guangdong Shekou's bulk shipping price increased by 10 yuan/ton. Northeast deep - processing corn prices were stable with a slight increase, and North China's corn prices rose slightly [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [14]. Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 14.57 cents/pound with a - 0.11 change, the mainstream spot price was 5350 yuan/ton with a 0 change, and the futures main contract price was 5280 yuan/ton with a - 19 change [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, India's sugar production increased by 24% year - on - year, Brazil's December exports increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and China's November sugar imports decreased by 90,000 tons. CAOC predicts that China's 25/26 sugar production will be 1.17 billion tons, consumption will be 1.57 billion tons, and imports will be 0.5 billion tons. ISO predicts a 163,000 - ton global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season [15][16][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is - 1 [18]. Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2605's day - session closing price was 14,675 yuan/ton with a - 0.91% change, and night - session closing price was 14720 yuan/ton with a 0.31% change. Spot prices of cotton in different regions decreased slightly [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading was average, and the spot sales basis was stable. Pure - cotton yarn prices were stable with a slight decrease, and the trading atmosphere was weak. ICE cotton futures fell slightly due to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [22]. Eggs - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of egg 2602 was 2,958 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.94% change, and the closing price of egg 2603 was 3,007 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.56% change. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [26]. Hogs - **Fundamentals**: Henan's spot price was 13080 yuan/ton, Sichuan's was 12900 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's was 13060 yuan/ton. Futures prices of different contracts had different changes [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Hog trend intensity is - 1 [30]. Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of PK603 was 7,836 yuan/ton with a - 0.13% change, and the closing price of PK605 was 7,830 yuan/ton with a - 0.46% change. Spot prices in different regions were stable [32]. - **Spot Market Focus**: Peanut prices in Henan, Jilin, Liaoning, and Shandong were basically stable, with some regions showing a slight increase [33]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment outlooks: - Positive outlook: Zinc [12], Platinum, Palladium [29], Palm oil, Soybean oil [153] - Neutral outlook: Copper, Lead, Tin, Aluminum, Alumina, Cast aluminum alloy, LPG, Propylene, Short - fiber, Bottle - chip, Pure benzene, Bean meal, Bean one, Corn, Cotton, Egg, Peanut [9][15][18][25][109][140][148][158][161][170][175][182] - Negative outlook: Industrial silicon, Rubber, LLDPE, PP, Caustic soda, Pulp, PVC, Fuel oil, Low - sulfur fuel oil, Container Freight Index (European Line), Offset printing paper, White sugar, Live pig [42][72][76][79][82][87][117][120][122][143][165][178] 2. Core Views - **Precious Metals**: Gold is influenced by rising risk - aversion sentiment, while silver is affected by tariff expectation fluctuations [6]. - **Base Metals**: Copper prices are restricted by the strengthening US dollar; zinc is prone to rise and difficult to fall; lead prices are supported by the decrease in LME inventory; tin is consolidating at a high level; aluminum is slightly under pressure; alumina is oscillating downward; cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [9][12][15][18][25]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: For PX, the valuation is following the cost - end correction, and the future supply - demand is expected to weaken gradually; PTA processing fees are at a high level, and attention should be paid to reducing processing fees; MEG has limited downward valuation space [66]. - **Agricultural Products**: Palm oil is affected by the approaching implementation of the US biofuel policy, and the sentiment in the oil and fat sector has improved; soybean oil's rebound height is limited due to insufficient soybean - related themes; soybean meal requires waiting for the progress of China - Canada trade consultations; corn requires attention to the spot market; white sugar is mainly in a weak operation; cotton continues to be in an adjustment state [153][158][161][165][170]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: The closing price of SHFE gold 2602 was 1,035.20, with a daily decline of 0.52%. The risk - aversion sentiment has rebounded [6]. - **Silver**: The closing price of SHFE silver 2602 was 22,713, with a daily decline of 0.41%. Tariff expectation fluctuations have an impact on the price [6]. 3.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: The closing price of SHFE copper main contract was 102,560, with a daily decline of 1.26%. The strengthening US dollar restricts price increases [9]. - **Zinc**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 25,090, with a daily increase of 2.51%. It is prone to rise and difficult to fall [12]. - **Lead**: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract was 17,550, with a daily increase of 0.95%. The decrease in LME inventory supports the price [15]. - **Tin**: The closing price of SHFE tin main contract was 433, with a daily increase of 4.80%. It is consolidating at a high level [18]. - **Aluminum**: The closing price of SHFE aluminum main contract was 24,375, with a decrease of 220 compared to the previous day. It is slightly under pressure [25]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of SHFE alumina main contract was 2,789, with a decrease of 11 compared to the previous day. It is oscillating downward [25]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [25]. 3.3 Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The closing price of the main contract was 7,130, with a decline of 1.82%. The valuation is following the cost - end correction, and the future supply - demand is expected to weaken [66]. - **PTA**: The closing price of the main contract was 5,048, with a decline of 1.33%. The polyester production cut plan has increased, and attention should be paid to the implementation intensity [66]. - **MEG**: The closing price of the main contract was 3,817, with a decline of 1.29%. The valuation has limited downward space [66]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The closing price of the main contract (day session) was 8,578, with a decline of 1.94%. The approaching implementation of the US biofuel policy has improved the sentiment in the oil and fat sector [153]. - **Soybean Oil**: The closing price of the main contract (day session) was 7,938, with a decline of 0.78%. The rebound height is limited due to insufficient soybean - related themes [153]. - **Soybean Meal**: The closing price of DCE soybean meal 2605 was 2,740, with a decline of 0.33%. Wait for the progress of China - Canada trade consultations [158]. - **Corn**: The closing price of C2603 was 2,295, with an increase of 0.83%. Pay attention to the spot market [161]. - **White Sugar**: The futures main contract price was 5,280, with a decline of 19. It is mainly in a weak operation [165]. - **Cotton**: The closing price of CF2605 was 14,675, with a decline of 0.91%. It continues to be in an adjustment state [170].

2026 年 1 月 16 日 胶版印刷纸：空单择机止盈 石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 shiyining@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：基本面数据(元/吨) | 市场 | 区域 | 纸种 | 2026/1/15 | 2026/1/14 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 70g天阳 | 4475 | 4475 | 0 | | | 山东市场 | 70g晨鸣云镜 | 4675 | 4675 | 0 | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 4725 | 4725 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | 70g本白牡丹 | 4450 | 4450 | 0 | | | | 70g天阳 | 4400 | 4400 | 0 | | | 广东市场 | 70g晨鸣云豹 | 4600 | 4600 | 0 | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 4700 | 4700 | 0 | | | | 含税收入 | 4725 | 4725 | 0 | | | 税前 | 含税成本 | 5286 | 5292 | -6 | | | | 税前毛利 | -561 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core View - The report suggests short - term observation of crude oil and warns of the recurrence of geopolitical risks [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI futures 02 contract dropped $2.83, a decline of 4.56%, closing at $59.19 per barrel; ICE Brent crude futures 03 contract fell $2.76, a decrease of 4.15%, at $63.76 per barrel; SC2603 crude oil futures closed down $10.60, a 2.34% drop, at 441.80 yuan per barrel [1] Crude Oil Arbitrage Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, Agbami, and Forties all have a closed arbitrage state, with respective arbitrage values of -$3.78, -$4.82, -$5.95, -$6.65, and -$10.4 per barrel due to factors like high freight, low cracking profit, weak demand, and lack of competitiveness [2] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties has a closed arbitrage state with an arbitrage value of -$1.95 per barrel due to limited trans - Atlantic arbitrage space; Arab Extra Light, Saharan Blend, and Urals have an open arbitrage state, with values of $2.22, $0.6, and $26.19 per barrel respectively, due to arbitrage opportunities, improved cost - effectiveness, and strong demand [2] Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTIMEH, Eagle Ford, and Bonny Light have an open arbitrage state, with values of $2.1, $2.5, and $2.45 per barrel respectively, due to good cracking profit and strong demand; Azeri Light has a closed arbitrage state with a value of -$0.36 per barrel because of environmental policy suppression [4] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Saharan Blend, Bonny Light, and Ekofisk all have a closed arbitrage state, with values of -$24.36, -$23.81, and -$27.19 per barrel respectively, due to low demand and structural over - supply [4] Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Murban, Bonny Light, Forties, and Eagle Ford all have a closed arbitrage state, with values of -$12.57, -$14.01, -$21.32, and -$11.71 per barrel respectively, due to fierce competition, weak demand, and narrowed arbitrage space [5] Key Market News - Iraq opposes the use of its territory as a springboard for attacks on Iran [5] - The US Treasury Department announced new sanctions against Iran [6] - At least one US aircraft carrier is being deployed to the Middle East [7] - Netanyahu asked Trump to postpone the strike on Iran [9] - Trump is closely monitoring the situation in Iran and keeps all options open [9] - Trump informed Iran that he has no intention to attack and asked for restraint [9] - Venezuela's oil production reached 1.2 million barrels per day in December [9] - Trump is delaying the decision on striking Iran and is consulting internally and with allies [9] - Venezuela's oil industry has been operating through phone and hand - written reports after a cyber - attack on PDVSA [9] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral state [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance, and support levels of various futures on January 15, 2026, and the overall trend of futures main (continuous) contracts in January 2026 [2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook Points - On January 15, 2026, stock index futures will be weakly volatile; gold, silver, and tin futures will reach new highs since listing; silver, nickel, and tin futures will be strongly volatile; other varieties have different trends [2] - In January 2026, most futures main (continuous) contracts will be strongly volatile, and some will reach new highs since listing [5] 3.2 Macro - News and Trading Tips - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on January 15, and the central bank and relevant departments will introduce policies; China's foreign trade in 2025 increased by 3.8% year - on - year, and December's export of rare earths increased by 32% year - on - year; the central bank will conduct a 900 billion yuan reverse - repurchase operation [6] - The policy of tax refund for home replacement by residents is extended until the end of 2027; relevant departments announce the tax policy for goods import and export in the Shenzhen Park of the Hetao Shenzhen - Hong Kong Science and Technology Innovation Cooperation Zone [7][8] - The Fed's Beige Book shows that the economy in most regions has improved; the US and Iran are in a tense situation; the US will strengthen visa review; the Fed may cut interest rates later this year [8][9] - The US PPI in November 2025 increased by 3% year - on - year; retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month; the number of existing home sales in December reached the highest level since February 2023 [10] 3.3 Commodity Futures - Related Information - On January 14, precious metals and some industrial metals reached new highs; international precious metal and base metal futures generally rose; oil prices fluctuated due to the risk of Iranian turmoil; tungsten prices continued to be strong; OPEC maintained its forecast of global oil demand growth in 2026 and made a forecast for 2027 [10][11][12] - The on - shore and offshore RMB against the US dollar rose, while the US dollar index fell [13][11] 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook Stock Index Futures - On January 14, the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures showed different trends, with some reaching new highs but facing resistance [13][14][15] - On January 15, stock index futures will be weakly volatile; in January 2026, the main (continuous) contracts of stock index futures will be strongly volatile, and the IM main continuous contract will reach a new high since listing [20] Gold Futures - On January 14, the new main contract of gold futures rose and reached a new high since listing; the main continuous contract will be strongly volatile in January 2026, reaching a new high since listing; on January 15, the main contract will be strongly volatile and reach a new high [38][39] Silver Futures - On January 14, the main contract of silver futures rose significantly and reached a new high since listing; the main continuous contract will be strongly volatile in January 2026, reaching a new high since listing; on January 15, the main contract will be strongly volatile and reach a new high [43][44] Platinum Futures - On January 14, the main contract of platinum futures rose; the main continuous contract will be strongly volatile in January 2026; on January 15, the main contract will be weakly volatile [51][52] Palladium Futures - On January 14, the main contract of palladium futures rose; the main continuous contract will be strongly volatile in January 2026; on January 15, the main contract will be weakly volatile [54] Copper Futures - On January 14, the main contract of copper futures rose; the main continuous contract will be strongly volatile in January 2026 and reach a new high since listing; on January 15, the main contract will be weakly volatile [61] Nickel Futures - On January 14, the main contract of nickel futures rose slightly; the main continuous contract will be strongly volatile in January 2026; on January 15, the main contract will be strongly volatile [63] Tin Futures - On January 14, the main contract of tin futures rose sharply and reached a new high since listing; the main continuous contract will be strongly volatile in January 2026 and reach a new high since listing; on January 15, the main contract will be strongly volatile and reach a new high [67][68] Lithium Carbonate Futures - On January 14, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fell; the main continuous contract will be strongly volatile in January 2026; on January 15, the main contract will be widely volatile [72] Rebar Futures - On January 14, the main contract of rebar futures rose slightly; it will be strongly volatile in January 2026; on January 15, it will be strongly volatile [77] Iron Ore Futures - On January 14, the main contract of iron ore futures rose slightly; it will be strongly volatile in January 2026; on January 15, it will be weakly volatile [80] Coking Coal Futures - On January 14, the main contract of coking coal futures rose slightly; it will be strongly volatile in January 2026; on January 15, it will be volatile and consolidating [87][88] Soda Ash Futures - On January 14, the main contract of soda ash futures rose slightly; it will be widely volatile in January 2026; on January 15, it will be weakly volatile [92]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The photovoltaic sector may experience a significant rush - to - export market in the first quarter, which will marginally benefit the demand for related products. The lithium - battery sector, including batteries and ternary materials, has short - term rush - to - export drivers. The "rush - to - export" in the photovoltaic sector will have a certain impact on the container shipping index (European line) [4][18][36]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Photovoltaic Sector - **Export Tax Rebate System**: The export tax rebate system for photovoltaic products dates back to 2013. It has been adjusted several times, and from April 1, 2026, the export tax rebate for photovoltaic cells and modules will be cancelled. The expected cancellation of the tax rebate in 2025 Q3 led to a 10% quarter - on - quarter increase in component exports [7]. - **Impact on the Industry**: China's photovoltaic exports are mainly components, with about 40% going to Europe. After the cancellation of the tax rebate in April, the export cost per watt of components is expected to increase by $0.008 (equivalent to RMB 0.06 per watt), and the export profit per watt will drop to -$0.012, leading to potential losses in component exports [10]. - **European Market Situation**: The overall economic weakness in Europe, subsidy reduction, and limited grid capacity will lead to a 3% year - on - year decline in new photovoltaic installations in 2026. However, there is a clear peak - off - peak cycle. Before the policy adjustment on April 1, there will be a significant rush - to - export market, and component exports in Q1 2026 are expected to increase by 8 - 10GW compared to previous expectations [14]. - **Demand for Related Products**: In the first quarter, domestic installation demand is weak, but the rush - to - export of components will improve overall demand. It is expected to bring about 8 - 10GW of component demand increment, which will marginally benefit the demand for main and auxiliary materials of photovoltaic components [17]. 3.2 Lithium - Battery Sector - **Export Tax Rebate Policy**: The export tax rebate for lithium - ion batteries will be reduced to 9%, 6%, and 0% in December 2024, April 2026, and January 2027 respectively. The first reduction had no obvious impact, and in November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year exports of power and energy - storage batteries increased by 47% and 74% respectively [20]. - **Impact on Leading Enterprises**: The export tax rebate cancellation may reduce the policy support for enterprises by $1.8 billion. However, enterprises with a stable overseas market and strong bargaining power can better withstand the impact [21]. - **Export Demand of Power Batteries**: Power and energy - storage lithium - ion batteries rely on the export market by about 16% and 24% respectively. The core export area for power batteries is Europe. Although affected by US tariffs, the demand has strong resilience, and there will be a moderate "rush - to - export" demand [24]. - **Energy - Storage Batteries**: The domestic energy - storage battery market is highly competitive. With the cancellation of the 9% export tax rebate, there will be a strong "rush - to - export" demand in the Middle East, Chile and other regions. However, the current production capacity of battery factories is nearly saturated, so short - term export increments are limited [28]. - **Ternary Materials**: The export tax rebate for ternary materials and precursors will be reduced from 13% to 0%, with a greater impact on profits. NCM and NCM precursor materials mainly rely on exports to Japan and South Korea. The export tax rebate cancellation will have a greater impact on the upstream of the ternary lithium - battery industry chain and may stimulate a "rush - to - export" demand [31][35]. 3.3 Container Shipping Sector - **Transport Demand**: In 2025, the export of photovoltaic components to 12 European countries decreased by 6% compared to the same period in 2024. It is estimated that the "rush - to - export" of components may lead to the pre - shifting of 20,000 - 50,000 TEU of transport demand on the European line from Q2 to Q1, and the total transport demand on the European - Mediterranean route may increase by 40,000 - 70,000 TEU [39]. - **Impact on Container Shipping European Line**: The concentrated "rush - to - export" may occur from late February to March. The 20,000 - 50,000 TEU transport increment in the photovoltaic industry is difficult to change the monthly - level over - capacity situation. It will have a marginal positive impact on the loading rate from February to March but is negative for the transport demand after April. For the futures market, EC2602 is basically unaffected, and EC2604 has a downward - driving force, but it may not show an overly pessimistic discount [42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - PX: Unilateral price is expected to follow the upward trend with cost support from rising oil prices, but pay attention to the implementation of the decline in downstream PTA and polyester operations. Consider long PX and short PTA, long SC and short PX hedging, and focus on the positive spread of monthly contracts [6]. - PTA: The unilateral valuation is expected to be strong following the cost - end trends of crude oil and PX. High processing fees, so pay attention to reducing processing fee positions. The supply increase is limited, and the actual implementation of polyester production cuts needs to be observed. The market is expected to be in tight balance this week [7]. - MEG: Unilateral short - term strong rebound, close short positions. Pay attention to the implementation of spring maintenance of coal - chemical ethylene glycol plants [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX - **Price and Market Data**: Yesterday, the PX futures main contract closed at 7262, down 20 with a decline of 0.27%. The PX5 - 9 spread closed at 60, up 2. The PX CFR China spot price was 897.33 dollars/ton, down 1.34. The PX - naphtha spread was 339.75 dollars/ton, down 6.17 [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Due to geopolitical tensions, oil prices have risen, pushing up Asian spot prices. However, with the expected decline in Chinese polyester plant activities in the coming weeks, PX spot prices have gained little. Some small polyester producers with annual capacities between 250,000 and 1.2 million tons will stop production from mid - January to late February. The overall PX supply is loose with high domestic plant operating rates and expected high imports in December [2][3][6]. - **Trading Situation**: On January 14, there were multiple bids and offers for February and March delivery in the Asian PX Platts market, and one transaction was completed. The naphtha price fell in the late session, and the PX price also declined, with a February Asian spot trading at 896 dollars/ton [4]. PTA - **Price and Market Data**: Yesterday, the PTA futures main contract closed at 5116, down 24 with a decline of 0.47%. The PTA5 - 9 spread closed at 46, down 6. The PTA East China spot price was 5072 yuan/ton, up 12. The PTA processing fee was 320.45 yuan/ton, down 52.31 [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: A 3 - million - ton PTA plant in East China has restarted, a 2.5 - million - ton plant is expected to stop at the end of the month, a 3.6 - million - ton plant is reducing its load and will stop for maintenance tomorrow, and a 1.25 - million - ton plant in South China is expected to stop in the next two days and restart in early March. The PTA operating rate is currently 78%, and the load increase space is limited in January. Polyester production cut plans have increased, and the polyester load is expected to drop to 84 - 85% at the end of January [4][7]. MEG - **Price and Market Data**: Yesterday, the MEG futures main contract closed at 3867, up 52 with an increase of 1.36%. The MEG5 - 9 spread closed at - 112, up 6. The MEG spot price was 3718 yuan/ton, up 36 [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term unilateral price is expected to rebound strongly. Attention should be paid to the implementation of spring maintenance of coal - chemical ethylene glycol plants [7]. Polyester - **Production and Sales**: A major polyester manufacturer in Xiaoshan has announced maintenance plans for 6 polyester plants around the Spring Festival. Another major manufacturer in Tongxiang plans to arrange maintenance for 3 plants after the Spring Festival. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are generally weak today, with an average sales rate of 40 - 50% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber are highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 72% by 3:00 pm [5]. Clothing - **Export Data**: In 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing exports were 2.10267 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%. Among them, textile exports were 1.02047 trillion yuan, an increase of 1%, and clothing exports were 1.0822 trillion yuan, a decrease of 4.4% [6].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Nickel is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations due to the game between industrial and secondary - market funds. Stainless steel's shock center is lifted by nickel - iron, and the market is in a game regarding Indonesian policies [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 140,940, with changes of 2,490 compared to T - 1, - 6,780 compared to T - 5, etc. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract is 13,925, with changes such as 135 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 1,070,694, and that of the stainless steel main contract is 275,984 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 142,400, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 983, and the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 32,950. There are also data on price differences, premiums, and other indicators [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for certain nickel - related products through the OSS platform [2]. - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have decided to implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [3]. - Indonesia plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026 and will treat cobalt as an independent commodity for royalty collection [3]. - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 3.79 billion tons to 2.5 billion tons [5]. - Some Indonesian mining companies are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal forest land occupation [5]. - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources minister said that the 2026 nickel ore production quota will be adjusted according to industry demand [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is also 0, indicating a neutral view [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Safe-haven sentiment rebounds [2]. - Silver: Reaches a new high [2]. - Copper: The strengthening of the LME spot premium supports the price [2]. - Zinc: Pay attention to the upper pressure [2]. - Lead: The reduction in overseas inventories supports the price [2]. - Tin: Strong upward trend [2]. - Aluminum: Oscillates with a slight upward bias [2]. - Alumina: Ranges within a certain interval [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum: Oscillates and adjusts [2]. - Palladium: Follows with a slight retracement [2]. - Nickel: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, with wide - range oscillatory operation [2]. - Stainless steel: Ferronickel raises the oscillation center, and the market is speculating on Indonesian policies [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,027.18 with a daily increase of 0.09%, and the night - session closing price was 1031.00 with a night - session increase of 0.14%. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 21030 with a daily increase of 0.39%, and the night - session closing price was 21943.00 with a night - session increase of 4.14% [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold increased by 630 kg, and the inventory of Comex Silver decreased by 2,255,181 troy ounces [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The minimum margin ratio for margin trading on the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges was raised from 80% to 100. The US Supreme Court failed to rule on the Trump tariff policy case again, and the Nasdaq maintained a 1% decline. The US November retail sales unexpectedly strengthened, the PPI rebounded year - on - year, and the December existing - home sales were the strongest since 2023 [4][6][7]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 103,870 with a daily increase of 1.54%, and the night - session closing price was 103660 with a night - session decrease of 0.20%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index increased by 22,824 [8]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The LME copper inventory increased by 75 tons, and the LME copper premium strengthened, with an increase of 25.92 compared to the previous day [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to the gold and silver section, also including that global copper demand is expected to increase significantly by 2040 driven by AI and defense. The 2026 copper premium proposed by Pan - Pacific Copper to Japanese domestic customers reached a record high of $330 per ton [8][10]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24475 with a daily increase of 0.80%, and the trading volume increased by 54828 [11]. - **Premium and Inventory**: The LME CASH - 3M premium increased by 21.55, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 175 tons [11]. - **News**: The US Supreme Court failed to rule on the Trump tariff policy case, and the US November retail sales unexpectedly strengthened [12]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17385 with a daily increase of 0.14%, and the trading volume increased by 6891 [14]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The LME lead inventory decreased by 3725 tons, and the LME CASH - 3M premium decreased by 0.18 [14]. - **News**: Similar to the above, including US economic data and Fed officials' stances [15]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 413,170 with a daily increase of 8.92%, and the night - session closing price was 436,540 with a night - session increase of 9.18% [18]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The Shanghai Tin inventory increased by 862 tons, and the LME tin (spot/three - month) premium increased by 22 [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US will suspend visas for 75 countries, the US November retail sales exceeded expectations, the yen reached an 18 - month low, and other news [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: For aluminum, the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24595, and the trading volume decreased by 47846. For alumina, the closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2800, and the trading volume decreased by 273575. For cast aluminum alloy, the closing price of the main contract was 23380, and the trading volume decreased by 8122 [21]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.20 million tons, and the LME aluminum premium was 22.09 [21]. - **Comprehensive News**: Fed officials' stances on interest rates, and other news [23]. Platinum and Palladium - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum has a trend intensity of 0, and palladium has a trend intensity of 0 [25]. - **Related News**: US economic data, Iran situation, US Supreme Court's non - ruling on Trump tariffs, Trump's chip tariff policy, and other news [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 140,940, and the trading volume decreased by 206,996. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 13,925, and the trading volume decreased by 71,570 [28]. - **Industry News**: The Indonesian government suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses, China implemented export license management for some steel products, Indonesia planned to revise the nickel ore benchmark price formula, and other news [28][29][31].