Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. However, it offers trend intensity ratings for individual commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment judgments. The trend intensity ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), with -1 indicating a weak bearish trend, 0 indicating a neutral trend, and 1 indicating a weak bullish trend. Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. It presents the latest market data, macro and industry news, and offers trend forecasts and trading suggestions for each commodity. The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical risks, and macro - economic policies, showing different trends and characteristics. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Reached a new high. Comex gold 2602 had a 2.11% increase. Gold trend intensity is 1 [5]. - **Silver**: Approaching 100. Comex silver 2602 rose 3.51%. Silver trend intensity is 1 [5]. - **Platinum**: Followed the correction of gold and silver, but the trend did not reverse. Platinum trend intensity is 1 [26]. - **Palladium**: Looking for a bottom and then continuing the trend. Palladium trend intensity is 1 [26]. Base Metals - **Copper**: With the US dollar under pressure, the price was on the strong side. Trend intensity is 1 [10]. - **Zinc**: Showed a volatile and slightly upward trend. Trend intensity is 1 [13]. - **Lead**: Supported by the decrease in LME inventory. Trend intensity is 0 [16]. - **Tin**: Traded in a range. Trend intensity is 0 [18]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillated around 24,000. Aluminum trend intensity is 1; Alumina trended weakly, with an intensity of 0; Casting aluminum alloy fluctuated at a high level, with an intensity of 1 [22]. - **Nickel**: The situation in Indonesia was uncertain, with a game between hedging and speculative positions. Trend intensity is 0 [31]. - **Stainless Steel**: Concerns about nickel ore in Indonesia intensified, and the rise of ferronickel supported the price center. Trend intensity is 0 [31]. Energy - **Crude Oil - Related**: Although not directly mentioned in detail, it affected related products. For example, the price of PX was affected by the movement of upstream crude oil and naphtha prices [67]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Traded in a range, affected by industry and capital factors. Trend intensity for both is 0 [55][56]. - **Power Coal**: Supply and demand tended to be weak, and the coal price stabilized with a slight upward exploration. [59] - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session opened lower, maintaining a high - volatility trend. Trend intensity is - 1. Low - sulfur fuel oil mainly followed the upward trend, with the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market reaching a low for the year. Trend intensity is - 1 [107]. Chemicals - **P - Xylene (PX)**: Supply was recovering, with a strong unilateral trend and a reverse spread in the month - spread. Trend intensity is 0 [64]. - **PTA**: Had a strong unilateral trend. Trend intensity is 0 [64]. - **MEG**: The trend remained strong. Trend intensity is 0 [64]. - **Rubber**: Traded in a range. Trend intensity is 0 [74]. - **LLDPE**: The US dollar offers were scarce, and upstream quotes were rising. Trend intensity is - 1 [77]. - **PP**: The C3 raw material was strong, but profit repair was limited. Trend intensity is - 1 [80]. - **Paper Pulp**: Traded in a range. Trend intensity is 0 [83]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet was stable. Trend intensity is - 1 [88]. - **Styrene**: Traded in a strong - side oscillation. Trend intensity is 0 [92]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changed little. Trend intensity is - 1 [95]. - **LPG**: Affected by short - term geopolitical factors. Trend intensity is 0. Propylene had strong demand support, and the spot price rose strongly. Trend intensity is 1 [98]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Affected by multiple factors, traded in a high - level oscillation. Trend intensity is 0 [120]. - **Soybean Oil**: With the upcoming implementation of the US 45Z subsidy, the oil - meal ratio was rising. Trend intensity is 0 [120]. - **Soybean Meal**: After the overnight decline of US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal might follow the adjustment. Trend intensity is - 1 [125]. - **Soybean**: The spot price was stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures price adjusted and oscillated. Trend intensity is 0 [125]. - **Corn**: Traded in a slightly upward oscillation. Trend intensity is 1 [128]. - **Sugar**: Traded in a low - level consolidation. Trend intensity is 0 [132]. - **Cotton**: Consolidated and awaited new drivers. Trend intensity is 1 [137]. - **Eggs**: The spot price was strong during the pre - holiday peak season. Trend intensity is 0 [143]. - **Hogs**: The peak - season demand was lower than expected, and supply contradictions emerged. Trend intensity is - 2 [146]. - **Peanuts**: Traded in a range. Trend intensity is 0 [150].

2026年01月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲刺100 | 2 | | 铜：美元承压，价格偏强 | 4 | | 锌：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 铅：LME库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：24000一线震荡 | 10 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：高位震荡 | 10 | | 铂：跟随黄金白银回调但趋势并未反转 | 12 | | 钯：找底后继续演绎 | 12 | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 14 | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 27 日 黄金：再创新高 白银：冲刺 100 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 27 日 原木：区间震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 期货研究 期货研究 | 价格指标 项 目 2026/1/26 2026/1/23 | 2026/1/22 | 2026/1/21 | 2026/1/20 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2603合约（收盘价） 776 776 | 768.5 | 764 | 756 | 0.0% | 2.6% | | 2603合约（成交量） 5068 9430 | 4760 | 8422 | 8841 | -46.3% | -43% | | 2603合约（持仓量） 10481 11610 | 14921 | 15791 | 15748 | -9.7% | -33% | | 2605合约（收盘价） 783 788.5 | 786 | 781.5 | 775 | -0.7% | 1% | | 盘面 | | | | | | | 2605合约（成交量） 1996 956 | 695 ...

郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2602 | 1,726.7 | 0.76% | 565 | 4,225 | -176 | 0.13 | 0.12 | | | EC2604 | 1,200.2 | 5.46% | 43,172 | 41,690 | 541 | 1.04 | 0.75 | | | EC2606 | 1,447.6 | 3.47% | 4,483 | 7,324 | 1,533 | 0.61 | 0.77 | | | | 本期 | | 2026/1/26 | | 单位 | | 周涨幅 | | | SCFIS：欧洲航线 | | 1,859.31 | | | 点 ...

融 期 货 【期指期现数据跟踪】 期指数据 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变动 | 持仓量 | 变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 4707 | ↑0.10 | | 7968.3 | | | | | | IF2602 | 4713.8 | ↑0.10 | 6.84 | 469.7 | 33112 | ↑4297 | 41677 | ↓328 | | IF2603 | 4719.4 | ↑0.11 | 12.44 | 1605 | 112956 | ↑28482 | 191907 | ↑18020 | | IF2606 | 4701.6 | ↑0.24 | -5.36 | 443.5 | 31319 | ↑10613 | 77122 | ↑4614 | | IF2609 | 4653.4 | ↑0.34 | -53.56 | 170.7 | 12162 | ↑5675 | 17758 | ↑6428 | | 上证50 | 3049.6 | ↑0.57 | | 239 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-01-27 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-01-27 今 日 发 现 贵金属市场剧烈波动，交易所出手降温 观点分享： 周一贵金属市场剧烈波动。COMEX 白银一度大涨超 16%，现货白银一度涨近 14%，双 双站上 117 美元/盎司关口，但随后大幅回落，上演"过山车"行情，COMEX 白银涨幅收窄 至 2.5%，现货白银转跌。COMEX 黄金现货黄金一度连续突破 5000 美元、5100 美元两道 关口，但随后涨幅持续回落，COMEX 黄金收涨 0.5%，现货黄金涨幅收窄至 0.5%，双双徘 徊于 5000 美元附近。现货钯金一度大涨 7%，最终收跌逾 3%。交易所出手为商品期货市场 降温。上期所上期能源发布通知，将白银、锡期货合约单日开仓交易限额分别下调至 800 手 和 200 手，对 16 名客户限制锡、白银期货开仓 1 个月并限制出金；将铜、国际铜、铝期货 合约涨跌停板幅度调整为 9%，套保、一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为 10%和 11%。广期所 也发布风险提示函，强调将严肃查处各类违规行为。 | 所 | 长 | 首 | ...

2026年01月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：采买补库需求支撑，下方空间有限 | 4 | | 工业硅：上游工厂减产，底部存支撑 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注会议相关情况 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 27 日 商 品 研 究 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 145,380 | -2,630 ...

2026年01月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：供应回升，单边偏强，月差反套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：单边趋势偏强 | 2 | | MEG：趋势仍偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行20260127 | 5 | | LLDPE：美金递盘暂少，上游报价挺涨 | 7 | | PP：C3原料表现偏强，利润暂修复有限 | 8 | | 纸浆：震荡运行20260127 | 9 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 11 | | 苯乙烯：偏强震荡 | 12 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 13 | | LPG：短期地缘扰动偏强 | 14 | | 丙烯：需求支撑坚挺，现货强势走高 | 14 | | 燃料油：夜盘低开，高波动态势延续 | 17 | | 低硫燃料油：跟涨走势为主，外盘现货高低硫价差跌入年内低点 | 17 | | 短纤：短期趋势偏强20260127 | 18 | | 瓶片：短期趋势偏强20260127 | 18 | | 胶版印刷纸：观望为主 | 19 | | 纯苯：偏强震荡 | 21 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 ...

| 铁矿石：刚需仍存，价格震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：原料短期价格松动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：原料短期价格松动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：产业叠加资金配合，区间震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：产业叠加资金配合，区间震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：供需趋于双弱，煤价企稳小幅探涨 | 9 | | 原木：区间震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 2026年01月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 铁矿石：刚需仍存，价格震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 27 日 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期 货 | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | -10.5 | -1.32% | | | I260 ...

2026年01月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：多重因素影响，高位震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美国45Z补贴落地在即，油粕比回升 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆收跌，连粕或跟随调整 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳中偏强，盘面调整震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：低位整理为主 | 7 | | 棉花：盘整等待新的驱动20260127 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：节前旺季现货偏强 | 10 | | 生猪：旺季需求不及预期，供应矛盾显现 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 27 日 棕榈油：多重因素影响，高位震荡 豆油：美国 45Z 补贴落地在即，油粕比回升 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com | | | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...