Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For both rebar and hot-rolled coil, raw materials are stronger than finished products, and steel mill profits continue to be compressed [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Rebar (RB2605): Yesterday's closing price was 3,165 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton (0.60%); trading volume was 957,432 lots, open interest was 1,726,703 lots, with an increase of 11,840 lots [1] - Hot-rolled coil (HC2605): Yesterday's closing price was 3,311 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (0.55%); trading volume was 408,729 lots, open interest was 1,427,498 lots, with an increase of 10,408 lots [1] - **Spot Price Data**: - Rebar: Prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Beijing increased by 20 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 10 yuan/ton respectively, while the price in Guangzhou remained unchanged [1] - Hot-rolled coil: Prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou increased by 20 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, and 10 yuan/ton respectively, while the prices in Tianjin and Tangshan billet remained unchanged [1] - **Basis and Spread Data**: - The basis of RB2605 decreased by 1 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2605 increased by 3 yuan/ton [1] - The spreads of RB2601 - RB2605, HC2601 - HC2605, HC2601 - RB2601, HC2605 - RB2605, and spot coil - rebar spread changed by 23 yuan/ton, -28 yuan/ton, 1 yuan/ton, -4 yuan/ton, and -1 yuan/ton respectively [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Steel Union Weekly Data (January 8)**: Rebar production increased by 2.82 million tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 1 million tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 3.41 million tons; rebar inventory increased by 16.08 million tons, hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.83 million tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties increased by 21.77 million tons; rebar apparent demand decreased by 25.48 million tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 2.43 million tons, and the total apparent demand decreased by 44.2 million tons [2] - **December 2025 Data of Key Steel Enterprises**: - Production: Crude steel production was 18.07 million tons, with an average daily output of 1.643 million tons (a 11.0% decrease in daily output compared to the previous period); pig iron production was 18.37 million tons, with an average daily output of 1.67 million tons (a 0.6% decrease in daily output compared to the previous period); steel production was 20.81 million tons, with an average daily output of 1.892 million tons (a 4.9% increase in daily output compared to the previous period) [2][4] - Inventory: The social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 7.21 million tons, a decrease of 270,000 tons (3.6%) compared to the previous period, a decrease of 1.12 million tons (13.4%) compared to late November, and an increase of 620,000 tons (9.4%) compared to the same period last year; the steel inventory of key enterprises was 14.14 million tons, a decrease of 1.87 million tons (11.7%) compared to the previous ten - day period, an increase of 1.77 million tons (14.3%) compared to the beginning of the year, a decrease of 140,000 tons (1.0%) compared to the same ten - day period last month, an increase of 1.77 million tons (14.3%) compared to the same ten - day period last year, and an increase of 1.78 million tons (14.4%) compared to the same ten - day period the year before last [4] - **Policy News**: The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products [4] - **Import Data**: In October 2025, China imported 503,000 tons of steel, a decrease of 45,000 tons (8.2%) compared to the previous month, with an average price of $1,593.0 per ton, a decrease of $31.1 per ton (1.9%) compared to the previous month; from January to October, the cumulative import of steel was 5.041 million tons, a decrease of 680,000 tons (11.9%) compared to the same period last year [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 13 日 铜：现货走强，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 103,800 | 2.36% | 103320 | -0.46% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 13,172 | 1.59% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 562,942 | -224,328 | 694,612 | 12,971 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 35,741 | 8,674 | 325,000 | -446 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 116,622 | 5,406 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 137,225 | -1,750 | 16.09% | -0.91 ...

2026 年 1 月 13 日 豆粕：USDA 报告偏空，或跟随美豆回调 豆一：USDA 报告影响，或调整震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 1 月 12 日 CBOT 大豆日评：美国大豆产量上调，出口下调，大豆下跌。北京德润林 2026 年 1 月 13 日消息：周一，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）大豆期货收盘下跌，主要反映了美国大豆产量预估上调，而出 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 | | 收盘价 | （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） 4356 | -24（-0.55%） | 4380 +31 | （+0.71%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） 2790 | +4（+0.14%） | 2795 +9 （+0.32%） | | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） 1050.5 | -12.25（-1.15%） | | | | ...

期 货 研 究 2026 年 01 月 13 日 铝：偏强运行 氧化铝：逢高寻卖点 铸造铝合金：强于电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 24650 | 320 | 1005 | 2740 | 3740 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 24630 | - | l | । | । | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | | | | 328 | | | | | | 3191 | 42 | 101 | | 502 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 655011 | 121742 | 319290 | 477019 | 567101 | | | 电解铝 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 379081 | 19 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Unilateral high-level volatile market, long PX and short PTA, trend strength 1 [1][7] - PTA: Long PX and short PTA, long SC and short PTA, trend strength 1 [1][8] - MEG: Low-level rebound, limited downside in valuation, short positions to exit, trend strength 1 [1][9] 2. Core Views - PX is expected to be unilaterally strong in the short - term due to cost support from oil prices and increasing market attention, despite increasing supply and decreasing demand [7] - PTA is expected to be unilaterally strong in the short - term as current low inventory and ongoing de - stocking offset the expected future decline in demand [8] - MEG is expected to have a short - term strong rebound as supply pressure eases and there is strong support at the 3600 yuan/ton level [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: The price of naphtha fell at the end of the session. PX prices rose, with two March Asian spot transactions at 899.5 and 898.5 respectively. The PX valuation was 897 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars from last Friday. Asian PX prices got new support from the rising oil prices on January 12 [3] - Crude oil: On January 12, Asian - session crude oil prices remained at a one - month high due to potential supply disruptions. The front - month ICE Brent contract rose 2.18% to 63.34 dollars/barrel, and the NYMEX front - month contract rose 2.35% to 59.12 dollars/barrel [5] - PTA: The PTA load rose from around 73% to around 78% recently, but is expected to return to around 73% in mid - January due to maintenance plans [6] - MEG: The port inventory of MEG in some main ports in East China was about 80.2 tons, up 7.7 tons from the previous period. The daily shipments from some warehouses were around 6500 - 6600 tons [6][7] - Polyester: The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were individually strong, with an estimated average sales rate of about 70% by 3:45 pm. The average sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fibers was 87% by 3:00 pm [7] Fundamental Data - Futures: PX, PTA, and SC futures prices rose, with increases of 0.97%, 0.67%, and 1.11% respectively. MEG futures rose 0.36%, while PF futures fell 0.03% [2] - Spot: PX, PTA, MEG, and naphtha spot prices rose, while Dated Brent crude oil prices fell slightly. The PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, and short - fiber processing fee decreased, while the bottle - chip processing fee increased [2] Views and Suggestions - PX: Unilaterally strong in the short - term. Pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage of monthly spreads, long PX and short PTA. Although supply is increasing and demand is decreasing, cost support and market attention keep it strong [7] - PTA: Unilaterally strong in the short - term. Long PX and short PTA, long SC and short PTA. Future supply and demand are both expected to be weak, but current low inventory supports the price [8] - MEG: Unilaterally strong in the short - term for a rebound. Exit short positions as supply pressure eases and there is valuation support [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The report focuses on the egg market, indicating that the spot market is profitable while the sentiment for far - month contracts is weakening [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of egg2602 and egg2603 are 2,996 and 3,020 respectively, with daily changes of 0.23 and - 0.33. The trading volume of egg2602 increased by 2,829, and its open interest decreased by 2,887. For egg2603, the trading volume decreased by 7,408, and the open interest increased by 19,367 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The egg 2 - 3 spread is - 24 (previous day: - 44), and the egg 3 - 9 spread is - 942 (previous day: - 939) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: In the latest day, the spot prices in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 3.30, 3.11, 3.30, and 3.42 yuan per jin respectively. The corn spot price is 2,354 yuan per ton, the soybean meal spot price is 3,150 yuan per ton, and the Henan pig price is 12.93 yuan per kilogram [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. A value of - 2 indicates the most bearish view, and 2 indicates the most bullish view [2].

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 13 日 铂：窄幅震荡 钯：区间震荡 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 622. 80 | | 3. 83% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 612. 94 | | 3. 39% | | | | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2361. 30 | | 3.67% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2349.00 | | 3.52% | | | | 纪金期货2606 | 505. 10 | | 1. 21% | | | 价格 | 人民币现货把金 | 447.00 | | 4. 68% | | | | 纽约肥主连(前日) | 1, 911. 50 | | 2. 00% | | | | 伦敦现货包金(前日) | 1,831.35 | | 0. 72% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | ...

2026 年 1 月 13 日 | | 项 目 | | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 货 | 硅 铁:FeSi7 | 5-B:汇总价格:内 | 蒙 | 5350 | +50.0 | 元/吨 | | 现 | 硅 锰:FeMn6 | 5S i1 7:内 蒙 | | 5700 | - | 元/吨 | | | 锰 矿:M n4 4块 | | | 43.0 | - | 元/吨 度 | | | 兰 炭:小 料:神 | 木 | | 760 | - | 元/吨 | | | 期现价差 | 硅 铁 | （现 货-0 3期 货） | -348 | -16 | 元/吨 | | | | 锰 硅 | （现 货-0 3期 货） | -230 | -26 | 元/吨 | | 价 差 | 近远月价差 | 硅 | 铁2603-2605 | 2 4 | 4 | 元/吨 | | | | 锰 | 硅2603-2605 | -12 | 1 0 | 元/吨 | | | 跨品种价差 | 锰 | 硅2603-硅 铁2603 | 232 | -40 | ...

2026 年 01 月 13 日 短纤：震荡偏强，多 TA 空 PF 持有 20260113 瓶片：震荡偏强，月差正套持有 20260113 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2602 | ୧484 | ୧48୧ | -2 | PF02-03 | -18 | -18 | 0 | | PF | 短纤2603 | 6502 | 6504 | -2 | PF03-04 | -58 | -36 | -22 | | | 短纤2604 | ୧୧୧୦ | 6540 | 20 | PF主力基差 | 18 | 21 | -3 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 137103 | 135252 | 1851 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6.520 | 6.525 | -5 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 75563 | 99224 | -23661 | 短纤产销率 | 8 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol is "High-level Volatility" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic methanol market is in a narrow-range volatile adjustment. The futures are in a high-level consolidation, with general near-term buying at ports and some selling at high prices. Attention is on the shutdown of some coastal MTO plants. Inland upstream enterprises continue the initiative to reduce prices for shipment at the beginning of the week, with significant sales volume in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia. However, due to weak downstream demand, the transfer of goods in the trading link is not smooth, and the trading atmosphere is stalemate. [4] - As of January 7, 2026, the inventory of methanol ports in China continued to accumulate, mainly in Zhejiang. The inventory in South China ports decreased slightly, with de - stocking in Fujian and relatively stable inventory in Guangdong. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of methanol's main contract was 2,263 yuan/ton, down 10 from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,267 yuan/ton, up 22; the trading volume was 1,462,981 lots; the open interest of the 05 - contract was 863,591 lots, up 50,636; the number of warehouse receipts was 7,655 tons, unchanged; the trading value was 3,316,989 ten - thousand yuan, down 170,749. The basis was - 6, up 25; the spread between MA01 and MA05 was - 38, down 5. [2] - **Spot Market**: The price in Inner Mongolia was 1,825 yuan/ton, up 10; the price in northern Shaanxi was 1,840 yuan/ton, down 15; the price in Shandong was 2,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.2 Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 1,996.20, up 5.90. The spot price in Taicang was 2,260, up 18, and the price in northern Inner Mongolia was 1,837.5, up 7.5. Among the 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 8 cities had price increases ranging from 5 to 30 yuan/ton. [4] 3.3 Inventory Situation - As of January 7, 2026, the Chinese methanol port sample inventory was 1.5372 million tons, an increase of 40,800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.73%. The inventory mainly accumulated in Zhejiang, with 227,100 tons of visible foreign ships unloading during the period. The inventory in South China ports decreased slightly, with de - stocking in Fujian and relatively stable inventory in Guangdong. [4] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of methanol is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish). [5]