商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 31 日 PVC：短期偏弱震荡 | | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | chenjiaxin2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | PVC 基本面数据 | | | | | 09合约期货价格 | 华东现货价格 | 基差 | 9-1月差 | | 5159 | 5060 | -99 | -137 | 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 【现货消息】 国内 PVC 市场现货震荡调整，受政策预期影响盘面开盘拉升，然午后预期未有利好盘中转跌，PVC 供 需基本面维持双弱，新增产能投产供应维持高位，内外贸需求淡季，行业库存继续累库，现货价格承压，华 东地区电石法五型现汇库提在 5050-5150 元/吨，乙烯法在 5000-5200 元/吨。 【市场状况分析】 PVC 在此轮反内卷过程中基本面并没有明显改善，考虑到 PVC 装置大多有持续维护升级改造，目前反 内卷政策也未涉及 PVC 行业，因此影响相对有限。但短期仍受反内卷情绪扰动，关注焦煤等商品走势。 基本面看，PVC 行业利润在此 ...

商 品 研 究 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 2025 年 07 月 31 日 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） （手） | 11,775 | 11,835 | -60 -4222 | | | | | | 100,392 | 104,614 | | | | （09合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 39,690 | 41,136 | -1446 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 594,254 | 620,306 | -26052 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | 175 | 15 | 160 | | | 月差 | BR08-BR09 | | -50 | -30 | -20 | | | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 11,650 | 11,700 | -50 ...

张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 商 品 研 究 2025 年 07 月 31 日 工业硅：情绪转弱 多晶硅：关注市场情绪变化 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2509收盘价（元/吨） | 9,285 | -65 | -240 | 1,225 | | | | Si2509成交量（手） | 605,161 | | -49,683 -1,076,836 -772,169 | | | | | Si2509持仓量（手） | 242,677 | -34,057 | -92,099 | -113,074 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2509收盘价（元/吨） | 54,705 | 3,900 | 4,625 | - | | | | PS2509成交量（手） | 565,243 | 19,206 | -680,998 | - | | | | PS2509持仓量（手） | 16 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Politburo meeting on July 30 made marginal adjustments to macro - economic policies. Policy is more neutral, emphasizing the implementation of previous supportive measures and long - term layout, with a focus on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement, and industrial upgrading [6]. - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged on July 30, but internal differences were prominent. Powell's hawkish remarks dampened the expectation of an interest rate cut this year, causing the dollar and Treasury yields to rise sharply, and the stock market and gold prices to fluctuate [9]. - Due to weak fundamentals and high downstream inventory, pulp is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly, and reverse arbitrage operations can be considered [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Metals - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)** - Gold: FOMC meeting released hawkish expectations, with a trend intensity of - 1. Gold prices such as Comex Gold 2510 and London Gold showed corresponding fluctuations [9][16][21]. - Silver: Prices fell from high levels, with a trend intensity of - 1. Comex Silver 2510 dropped by 3.15% [16][21]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The U.S. copper import tariff was implemented, causing prices to be under pressure, with a trend intensity of 0. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products, and the price of New York copper tumbled 20% [23][25]. - **Zinc**: Prices fluctuated narrowly, with a trend intensity of - 1. The U.S. Q2 GDP growth was better than expected, and Trump threatened to impose tariffs on India [26][28]. - **Lead**: Inventory increased, and prices were under pressure, with a trend intensity of 0. The inventory of LME lead increased by 6025 tons [29][30]. - **Tin**: Prices fluctuated within a range, with a trend intensity of - 1. The price of SMM 1 tin ingots rose by 3500 yuan/ton [32][36]. - **Aluminum and Related Products** - Aluminum: Prices fluctuated slightly, with a trend intensity of 0. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 51.40 million tons [38][39]. - Alumina: Prices weakened, with a trend intensity of - 1. The price of the Shanghai - bonded area premium remained unchanged [38][39]. - Casting Aluminum Alloy: It followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a trend intensity of 0. The inventory of三地 increased by 291 tons [38][39]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - Nickel: Macroeconomic expectations determined the direction, and fundamentals limited the elasticity, with a trend intensity of 0. Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the U.S. [40][44]. - Stainless Steel: Macroeconomic sentiment dominated the marginal trend, and the real - world situation needed to be improved, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of 304/2B - SS decreased by 50 [40][44]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices fluctuated widely, and the impact at the mine end had not materialized, with a trend intensity of - 1. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price dropped by 211 yuan/ton [45][47]. Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - Industrial Silicon: Market sentiment weakened, with a trend intensity of - 1. The U.S. partially cancelled tariffs on certain small solar equipment imported from China [48][50]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes, with a trend intensity of - 1. The price of polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock remained unchanged [48][50]. - **Other Chemicals** - **Pulp**: It was expected to fluctuate weakly, with a high attention index of ★★★★. The profit of the paper and paper products industry from January to June 2025 decreased by 21.4% year - on - year [10][11]. - **Coal - related Products (Coke, Coking Coal, and Steam Coal)** - Coke: Market sentiment was realized, and prices fluctuated widely. - Coking Coal: Market sentiment was realized, and prices fluctuated widely. - Steam Coal: Daily consumption recovered, and prices stabilized in a fluctuating manner. - **Petrochemical Products (PTA, MEG, etc.)** - PTA: Cost provided support, and month - spread positive arbitrage was recommended. - MEG: The unilateral trend remained weak, and month - spread reverse arbitrage was recommended. Building Materials - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - economic expectations, prices fluctuated strongly, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of imported ore such as PB (61.5%) decreased by 8 yuan/ton [51]. - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)** - Rebar: Affected by macro - economic sentiment, prices fluctuated widely, with a trend intensity of 0. The output of rebar increased by 2.9 million tons in the week of July 24 [55][57]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: Affected by macro - economic sentiment, prices fluctuated widely, with a trend intensity of 0. The output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 3.65 million tons in the week of July 24 [55][57]. - **Silicon - based Alloys (Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon)** - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Affected by macro - economic sentiment, prices fluctuated weakly, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of silicon ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 100 yuan/ton [59][62]. - Manganese Silicon: Affected by macro - economic sentiment, prices fluctuated weakly, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of manganese ore Mn44 block increased by 0.5 yuan/ton degree [59][62].

2025年07月31日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：原油及宏观情绪偏多，短期存在支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：高位震荡，关注中美贸易进展 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆收跌，连粕反弹受限 | 4 | | 豆一：偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：区间震荡 | 8 | | 棉花：情绪降温，郑棉期货回调 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：现货转弱 | 11 | | 生猪：关注月初现货预期能否兑现 | 12 | | 花生：旧作下方有支撑 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 31 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：原油及宏观情绪偏多，短期存在支撑 豆油：高位震荡，关注中美贸易进展 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 0.13% | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 -0.58% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 31 日 LLDPE：趋势仍有压力 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2509 | 7387 | 0.24% | 244,663 | -9463 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 09合约基差 | -187 | | -205 | | | | 09-01合约价差 | -55 | | -53 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 7200 | | 7180 | | | | 华东 | 7300 | | 7280 | | | | 华南 | 7400 | | 7400 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 LLDPE 市场价格部分小涨，波幅在 10-70 元/吨。期货延续高位震荡，支撑市场氛围。临近月 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **PX**: Go long on PX and short on PTA01 contract, and short PXN on rallies. Cost end strengthens significantly, and there is a marginal decrease in supply. Consider a rolling positive spread arbitrage for the monthly spread [1][6]. - **PTA**: With the new device of Sanfangxiang gradually coming into operation, the supply pressure continues to increase. Pay attention to going long on PX and short on PTA for the 01 contract. The basis maintains a weak state, and continue the reverse spread operation for the basis. The monthly spread is approaching parity. Considering the reduced inventory accumulation in August due to the maintenance of multiple Yisheng Petrochemical devices, pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage for the 9 - 1 monthly spread [1][6]. - **MEG**: Conduct basis positive spread arbitrage and monthly spread reverse spread arbitrage. The market is concerned about the supply pressure brought by non - mainstream warehouse receipts. The port inventory is continuously decreasing, but the monthly spread remains weak due to the delivery pressure of the 09 contract. The trend of ethylene glycol is weak. Pay attention to the arbitrage of shorting ethylene glycol and going long on L. The supply is slightly loose, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol devices has rebounded [1][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - **PX**: On the 30th, the PX price rose, with the end - of - session spot for September at 868/871 in negotiation and October at 860/864 in negotiation, but no transactions. A 1.34 - million - ton PX device in the Middle East has produced products recently and is currently increasing its load [3]. - **PTA**: A new 3.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China has one line put into production recently and is in product debugging. A 50,000 - ton IPA device in North China is restarting and is expected to produce products next week [3]. - **MEG**: On the 30th, the average daily price of MEG spot was 4,527 yuan/ton, and the average daily price of futures for the end of August was 4,528 yuan/ton. The average spot price in Ningbo market was 4,542 yuan/ton, and the average non - coal - based spot price in South China market was 4,510 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polyester**: On the 30th, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang partially increased, with the average sales volume estimated at 6 - 70%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were average, with an average sales volume of 43% as of 3:00 p.m [4][5]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene is 0, the trend intensity of PTA is - 1, and the trend intensity of MEG is - 1 [5]. Futures and Spot Data | Futures | PX Main | PTA Main | MEG Main | PF Main | SC Main | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6,984 | 4,856 | 4,450 | 6,500 | 528.6 | | Change | 6,942 | 18 | - 17 | 0 | 13.6 | | Change Rate | 0.61% | 0.37% | - 0.38% | 0.00% | 2.64% | | Monthly Spread | PX9 - 1 | PTA9 - 1 | MEG9 - 1 | PF9 - 1 | SC9 - 10 | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 106 | 2 | - 28 | - 54 | 7.1 | | Previous Day's Closing Price | 108 | 6 | - 25 | - 32 | 6.6 | | Change | - 2 | - 4 | - 3 | - 22 | 0.5 | | Spot | PX CFR China ($/ton) | PTA East China (yuan/ton) | MEG Spot | Naphtha MOPJ | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | | Yesterday's Price | 866.33 | 4,858 | 4,525 | 608.25 | 73.56 | | Previous Day's Price | 857.33 | 4,830 | 4,518 | 589.25 | 71.48 | | Change | 9 | 28 | 7 | 19 | 2.08 | | Spot Processing Fee | PX - Naphtha Spread | PTA Processing Fee | Staple Fiber Processing Fee | Bottle Chip Processing Fee | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | | Yesterday's Price | 292.5 | 192.67 | 84.81 | - 22.45 | - 6.01 | | Previous Day's Price | 279.55 | 198.31 | 115.62 | - 28.79 | - 6.01 | | Change | 12.96 | - 5.64 | - 30.82 | 6.34 | 0 | [2]

Report Overview - Date: July 31, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Scope: Black series commodities including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Views - Iron ore: Supported by macro - expectations, showing a moderately strong and volatile trend [2][4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Affected by macro - sentiment, experiencing wide - range fluctuations [2][6] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Influenced by macro - sentiment, showing a moderately weak and volatile trend [2][10] - Coke and coking coal: After sentiment realization, undergoing wide - range fluctuations [2][15][16] - Thermal coal: With the recovery of daily consumption, stabilizing in a volatile manner [2][20] - Logs: Fluctuating repeatedly [2][24] 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures price closed at 789.0 yuan/ton, down 9.0 yuan/ton (-1.13%). Imported ore prices decreased by 8.0 yuan/ton, while some domestic ore prices remained unchanged. The trend intensity is 0 [4]. - **News**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30 to analyze the current economic situation and plan the second - half economic work [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: RB2510 closed at 3,315 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (0.42%); HC2510 closed at 3,483 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (0.81%). Some spot prices increased, and there were changes in inventory and production data [6][8]. - **News**: The government will regulate enterprise disorderly competition and promote capacity management in key industries. There were also updates on price law amendments and steel production data [7][8]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices declined, while some spot prices of ferrosilicon increased, and the price of manganese ore rose. The trend intensity for both is 0 [10]. - **News**: There were price increases in ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in the market, changes in enterprise production rates in different regions, and updates on steel mills' procurement prices and manganese ore quotes [11][14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: JM2509 closed at 1,117 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton (-0.31%); J2509 closed at 1,676.5 yuan/ton, up 43.5 yuan/ton (2.66%). Some spot prices remained stable, while others changed slightly. The trend intensity for both is 0 [16]. - **News**: There were updates on port prices and member - position changes in the futures market [16][18]. Thermal Coal - **Fundamentals**: The ZC2508 contract had no trading yesterday. There were quotes for southern port and domestic origin coal, and no changes in member - position in the futures market. The trend intensity is 0 [21][22]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts showed varying degrees of decline or change. Spot prices of most log products remained stable. The trend intensity is 0 [25]. - **News**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to plan the second - half economic work [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily investment analysis and trading strategies for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc., based on their respective fundamental data, market news, and trend intensities [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Cost end has a significant increase, suggest a rolling long - short spread strategy. With some device changes, the supply margin decreases, and it's recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA01 contracts, and short PXN on rallies [4][9]. - **PTA**: Supported by cost, suggest a long - short spread strategy. New device launches increase supply pressure. The basis is weak, and the 9 - 1 spread is worth attention. Polyester production and sales have local surges, and the start - up rate may bottom out in the short term [4][9]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is still weak, suggest a reverse spread strategy. Pay attention to the supply pressure from non - mainstream warehouse receipts. Port inventory is decreasing, but the 09 contract has delivery pressure. Consider shorting MEG and going long on L [4][10]. Rubber - Rubber is expected to move in a range. The futures price, trading volume, and open interest have declined. The tire industry has high inventory and low start - up rate due to weak demand [11][12][14]. Synthetic Rubber - In the short term, it is weak, but the downside space is narrowing. The futures price, trading volume, and open interest of butadiene rubber have decreased. The inventory of sample production enterprises has decreased, and the port and production enterprise inventories of butadiene have declined significantly, providing valuation support [15][16][17]. Asphalt - It follows the strong trend of crude oil with small - step increases. The futures price has increased, and the trading volume and open interest have changed. The refinery start - up rate and inventory rate have decreased. The capacity utilization rate, device maintenance volume, and shipment volume of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt have changed [18][26][31]. LLDPE - The trend still faces pressure. The futures price has a slight increase, and the open interest has decreased. The spot price has a partial small increase. Macroscopically, pay attention to the trade - war risk in August. The cost is supported by crude oil, but the supply pressure is increasing [32][33]. PP - The spot market fluctuates narrowly, and the trading is light. The futures price has a slight decline, and the open interest has decreased. The production enterprise price is mostly stable, and the downstream is cautious [36][37]. Caustic Soda - Pay attention to the delivery pressure. The 09 - contract futures price and the spot price in Shandong are provided. The market is in the off - season, with insufficient upward momentum but strong cost support. The 08 - contract warehouse receipts may impact the market [39][40][41]. Pulp - It is expected to move weakly in a range. The futures price has decreased, and the trading volume and open interest have declined. The supply and demand fundamentals are both weak, with high port inventory and weak demand in the paper market [44][46]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The futures price has a slight increase, and the open interest has increased. The spot price in different regions is stable, and the market shipment is average [49][50]. Methanol - It is under pressure and moves in a range. The futures price has decreased, and the trading volume and open interest have increased. The spot price has a partial increase, but the futures decline in the afternoon weakens the market atmosphere [53][56]. Urea - The pressure is gradually increasing. The futures price has a slight decline, and the open interest has decreased. The enterprise inventory has increased due to weak domestic demand and less - than - expected exports [58][59]. Styrene - The profit is being compressed. The futures price has increased, and the non - integrated and integrated profits have decreased. The port inventory is in an accelerated accumulation stage, and it's recommended to short styrene [61][62]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The futures price has a slight increase, and the open interest has increased. The enterprise device load is increasing, and downstream demand is average, with the market expected to be stable and fluctuate in the short term [63]. PVC - It is expected to move weakly in the short term. The futures price and the basis are provided. The supply and demand fundamentals are both weak, with high production, high inventory, and limited improvement from the anti - involution policy [65][66][67]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The upward trend continues, and it is still strong in the short term. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price shows a strong range movement, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market continues to rise [70]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - Hold short positions in the 10 - contract. The futures price of different contracts and the freight index of different routes are provided. The freight index of European and US - West routes has different changes, and the shipping capacity data is also presented [72].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: Macro - expectations determine the direction, while fundamentals limit the elasticity [2][4] - **Stainless Steel**: Macro - sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [2][4] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It experiences wide - range fluctuations, and the disturbances at the mine end have not materialized [2][9] - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment has weakened [2][12] - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [2][12] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,720 yuan, down 80 yuan from the previous day; the stainless - steel main contract was 12,920 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 153,323 lots, an increase of 33,388 lots from the previous day, and the stainless - steel main contract was 153,403 lots, an increase of 14,642 lots from the previous day [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Events include Canada's Ontario province potentially halting nickel exports to the US, the trial production of an Indonesian nickel - iron project, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, changes in Indonesia's mining quota policy, and production suspensions in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelting parks [4][5][6] - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 70,600 yuan, down 240 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 792,909 lots, an increase of 48,749 lots from the previous day; the open interest was 272,753 lots, a decrease of 27,867 lots from the previous day [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased. Greenbushes and Pilbara released their production and sales data and 2026 fiscal - year plans [9][10][11] - **Trend Intensity**: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is - 1 [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 9,285 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 605,161 lots; the open interest was 242,677 lots, a decrease of 34,057 lots from the previous day. The closing price of the PS2509 contract was 54,705 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,900 yuan from the previous day [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: The US will partially cancel trade tariffs on certain small - scale solar equipment imported from China [13] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is - 1 [14]