Report Information - Report Date: September 29, 2025 [1] - Authors: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Wu Hao [1] - Investment Advisory Qualification Numbers: Z0001891 (Zhou Xiaoqiu), Z0018592 (Wu Hao) [1] - Email Addresses: zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com (Zhou Xiaoqiu), wuhao8@gtht.com (Wu Hao) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The bottom of the live pig spot market has not been reached, and short positions should be held [1] Summary of Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 12,580 yuan/ton, Sichuan's is 12,150 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton year-on-year), and Guangdong's is 13,110 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of live pig futures contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 12,575 yuan/ton (down 110 yuan/ton year-on-year), 13,100 yuan/ton (down 210 yuan/ton year-on-year), and 12,655 yuan/ton (down 90 yuan/ton year-on-year) respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 38,742 lots (up 7,824 lots from the previous day), 26,927 lots (up 13,770 lots), and 7,332 lots (up 1,890 lots) respectively; the open interests are 85,019 lots (down 4,519 lots from the previous day), 71,622 lots (up 5,120 lots), and 50,862 lots (up 2,386 lots) respectively [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 5 yuan/ton (up 110 yuan/ton year-on-year), -520 yuan/ton (up 210 yuan/ton year-on-year), and -75 yuan/ton (up 90 yuan/ton year-on-year) respectively; the spreads between contracts 11 - 1 and 1 - 3 are -525 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton year-on-year) and 445 yuan/ton (down 120 yuan/ton year-on-year) respectively [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is -1, indicating a bearish view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within [-2, 2], with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]

2025 年 09 月 29 日 工业硅：情绪回落，盘面存下行驱动 多晶硅：市场情绪降温 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） Si2511成交量（手） | 8,960 315,381 | -95 -2,756 | -345 -194,925 | 435 -60,814 | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | | | | | | | | | 241,212 | -18,753 | -69,885 | -34,346 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 51,465 | 100 | -1,235 | - | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 202,601 | 17,815 | -127,011 | - | | | | PS2511持仓量（手） | 101,486 | -3 ...

王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 2025 年 9 月 29 日 沥青：成本支撑，厂库续累 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,450 | 0.29% | 3,463 | 0.38% | | | BU2512 | 元/吨 | 3,412 | 0.80% | 3,425 | 0.38% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2511 | 手 | 210,079 | 34,702 | 158,628 | (39,021) | | | BU2512 | 手 | 69,526 | 15,722 | 92,132 | 3,610 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 50650 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 价差 ...

资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货研究 烧碱：弱现实压制，但成本支撑强 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 01合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2528 780 2438 -91 2025 年 9 月 29 日 以山东地区为基准，9 月 26 日山东液碱局部维稳，小长假来临，多数企业急于去库，短期市场依旧偏 弱运行。 【市场状况分析】 烧碱山东 32 碱现货仍承压，但未来氧化铝投产带来的乐观预期短期又无法证伪。近期 50 碱反而因区 域套利，价格出现上涨，50 碱-32 碱价差扩张，厂家 50 碱库存压力大幅缓解，50 碱的支撑会导致现货短期 进一步下跌空间或有限。 从氧化铝方面看，氧化铝高产量、高库存格局，使得利润被持续压缩，边际产能供应未来可能受利润影 响。虽然广西地区年底到明年年初存在 560 万吨新增产能的备货需求，后期氧化铝备货将带动国内 50 碱货 源流转，但低利润的格局也可能使得其他氧化铝厂的备货水平下滑。在囤货未开启前，市场也难以判断囤货 带来的缺口 ...

2025 年 9 月 29 日 LPG：短期支撑不弱，关注成本变化 丙烯：短期偏弱运行 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2511 | 4,290 | 0.54% | 4,317 | 0.63% | | 期货价格 | PG2512 | 4,211 | 0.21% | 4,235 | 0.57% | | | PL2601 | 6,365 | -0.11% | 6,396 | 0.49% | | | PL2602 | 6,399 | 0.00% | 6,412 | 0.20% | | 持仓&成交 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2511 | 65,891 | 4599 | 80,682 | -7631 | | | PG2512 | ...

2025年09月29日 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 29 日 镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，镍价低位震荡 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，镍价低位震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：区间震荡，关注地方以旧换新补贴暂停 | 4 | | 工业硅：情绪回落，盘面存下行驱动 | 6 | | 多晶硅：市场情绪降温 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,380 | -1,610 | -120 ...

2025年09月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：短期反弹高度有限，轻仓过节 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆偏弱震荡，豆油上方空间难以打开 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆微涨，连粕或略有反弹 | 4 | | 豆一：反弹震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注新粮上市 | 6 | | 白糖：区间震荡 | 8 | | 棉花：市场继续聚焦新棉上市 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：旺季将过，轻仓过节 | 11 | | 生猪：现货底部未现，空单持有 | 12 | | 花生：震荡偏弱 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 29 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：短期反弹高度有限，轻仓过节 豆油：美豆偏弱震荡，豆油上方空间难以打开 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,23 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to experience repeated expectations and high - level oscillations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to show weak oscillations as raw material trends weaken [2][6]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have weak oscillations due to sector sentiment resonance [2][10]. - Coke and coking coal are expected to have wide - range oscillations with repeated expectations [2][13][14]. - Logs are expected to have repeated oscillations [2][16]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures price closed at 790.0 yuan/ton, down 15.5 yuan/ton (-1.92%). The open interest decreased by 20,811 lots. Among spot prices, the price of Jinbuba decreased by 1.0 yuan/ton, while others remained unchanged. The basis and spreads had minor changes [4]. - **News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: The RB2601 futures price of rebar closed at 3,114 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton (-1.58%); the HC2601 of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,313 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton (-1.22%). Spot prices in major regions decreased. Steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed mixed trends [6][7]. - **News**: Multiple industry and macro - economic news were reported, including steel production, inventory changes, and export/import data [7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices, basis, and spreads had corresponding changes. Manganese ore inventory in some ports increased [10][12]. - **News**: Multiple price quotes and procurement information from steel mills were reported, as well as manganese ore price increases from some suppliers [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [12]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of coking coal (JM2601) and coke (J2601) decreased. Spot prices remained stable. Basis and spreads changed [14]. - **News**: The China Coking Industry Association stated that it never issued or authorized "mandatory production cuts" or "joint price increases" notices [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [14]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of log contracts were mostly stable. Trading volume and open interest had different changes. Spot prices of various log types remained unchanged [17]. - **News**: The US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate on September 17 [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The mid - term trends of p - xylene (PX), purified terephthalic acid (PTA), and monoethylene glycol (MEG) are still weak. Before the holiday, attention should be paid to position management. For MEG, a 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage is recommended [1]. - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all neutral (0) [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Data**: The previous day's closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures were 6656, 4646, 4213, 6326, and 491.3 respectively, with changes of - 18, - 32, - 33, - 46, and 0.7, and percentage changes of - 0.27%, - 0.68%, - 0.78%, - 0.72%, and 0.14% [2]. - **Month - spread Data**: The previous day's closing prices of PX1 - 5, PTA1 - 5, MEG1 - 5, PF12 - 1, and SC11 - 12 month - spreads were - 32, - 46, - 63, - 44, and - 0.8 respectively, with changes of 10, - 6, 1, 0, and 0.3 [2]. - **Spot Data**: The previous day's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 814 dollars/ton, 4590 yuan/ton, 4300 yuan/ton, 608 dollars/ton, and 71.92 dollars/barrel respectively, with changes of - 3, 0, 10, - 0.5, and 1.39 [2]. - **Spot Processing Fee Data**: The previous day's spot processing fees of PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread were 206 dollars/ton, 217.21 yuan/ton, 222.06 yuan/ton, 59.94 yuan/ton, and - 6.01 respectively, with changes of - 2.5, 19.02, - 12.24, - 29.3, and 0 [2]. Market Dynamics In 2025, on September 5, the US White House issued a presidential order, canceling the exemption from reciprocal tariffs for the tariff codes 3907.61.00 and 3907.69.00 related to polyester bottle chips, and including polyester bottle chips in the scope of reciprocal tariff collection. Recycled PET now has the same tariff system as virgin PET [2]. Views and Suggestions - **PX**: The unilateral trend may still be weak, and a 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage is recommended. The PXN position for compression should be closed with a profit. The domestic PX operating rate is 86.7% (+0.4%), and the Asian PX operating rate is 78% (-0.2%). The PTA load is 76.8% (-). The PTA processing fee has recovered to 217 yuan/ton, and PXN has dropped to 206 dollars/ton. Overseas reforming profits are low, and South Korean plants may reduce their loads in the future. Attention should be paid to the support of overseas MX blending demand for PX valuation [4]. - **PTA**: The unilateral trend may still be weak, and a 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage is recommended. Short the PTA processing fee of 01/05 contracts on rebounds. The PTA load is 76.8% (-). The polyester operating rate this week is 90.3% (-1.3%). Although there are unplanned production cuts, the supply surplus in East China is still difficult to change, and the basis is difficult to strengthen significantly. In the medium - to - long term, the inventory pressure of polyester factories is expected to rise again after the holiday [5]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend may still be weak, and a 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage is recommended. The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland is 73.08% (down 1.85% from the previous period). Factories have announced maintenance plans for October - November. The polyester operating rate this week is 90.3% (-1.3%). The ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet is still strong in the near - term, and the basis is expected to be strong [6].

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 9 月 29 日 股指期货：节前平稳度过，长假控制仓位 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 报告导读： 1、 市场回顾与展望：上周市场整体偏强运行，板块方面电力设备、有色金属、电子涨幅居前；社会 服务、综合、商贸零售跌幅居前。周初，金融系统一把手发布会市场解读各异，但整体上并未释放利多政 策，且透露慢牛导向，随后指数调整，但也很快收复失地，并在周中持续回升。整体上看，消息面并不存 在持续性的扰动，本身市场风险偏好又较强，因此指数即使短线调整，也没有呈现趋势性走弱。周末消息 面来看，上月企业盈利数据改善，央行三季度货币政策例会召开，整体上消息面保持平稳，有利于节前行 情平稳度过。 2、 策略建议： ● 短线策略。短线策略。日内交易频率可参照 1 分钟和 5 分钟 K 线图，同时 IF、IH、IC、IM 止损 位和止盈位可参照 76 点/95 点、58 点/31 点、66 点/121 点、84 点/142 点去设定。 ● 趋势策略。逢低做多。预计 IF 主力合约 IF2510 核心运行区间 4407 和 4634 点；IH 主力合约 I ...