2025 年 09 月 29 日 铜：美元调整，限制价格回落 商 品 研 究 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 82,470 | -0.29% | 82380 | -0.11% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,205 | -0.69% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 174,625 | -160,268 | 229,050 | -9,473 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 20,104 | -22,262 | 298,000 | 2,051 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 26,557 | -1,105 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 144,400 | -25 | 7.15% | -0 ...

2025 年 9 月 29 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 期货合约 收盘价 较前一交易日 成交量 持仓量 | 期 货 | 硅铁2601 | 5628 | -108 | 92,203 | 99,910 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 锰硅2511 | 5828 | -96 | 155,732 | 63,093 | | | 锰硅2601 | 5848 | -90 | 244,524 | 335,692 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | 现 货 | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格:内蒙 | | 5380 | - | 元/吨 | | | 硅锰:FeMn65Si17:内蒙 | | 5700 | - | 元/吨 | | | 锰矿:Mn44块 | | 40.0 | - | 元/吨度 | | | 兰炭:小料:神木 | | 710 | - | 元/吨 | | | 硅铁 期现价差 | （现货-11期货） 硅铁2511-2601 | -280 3 2 | +126 -18 | 元/吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market continues to focus on the listing of new cotton. The domestic cotton spot market is mainly new - cotton pre - sales in the 2025/26 season, with stable to slightly discounted prices and relatively good pre - sales transaction atmosphere. The 2024/25 season spot is decreasing. The domestic cotton textile market has seasonal rigid - demand purchases, slow de - stocking, and weak prices. ICE cotton lacks upward momentum due to new US cotton listings and poor export sales [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,405 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.92% and a night - session closing price of 13,490 yuan/ton with a 0.63% increase. CY2511 closed at 19,610 yuan/ton yesterday with a 0.86% decline and a night - session closing price of 19,760 yuan/ton with a 0.76% increase. ICE US cotton 12 was at 66.27 cents/pound with a 0.20% increase. The trading volume of CF2601 was 253,456 lots, a decrease of 68,886 lots from the previous day, and the position was 741,549 lots, an increase of 4,299 lots. The trading volume of CY2511 was 11,944 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the position was 6,640 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 3,397, a decrease of 186 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 12, unchanged. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,677 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,390 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Shandong was 15,005 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan or 0.21% from the previous day; the price in Hebei was 14,971 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan or 0.31% from the previous day. The 3128B index was 15,001 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan or 0.28% from the previous day. The international cotton index M was 73.83 cents/pound, unchanged. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan or 0.17% from the previous day, and the arrival price was 21,497 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan or 0.03% from the previous day [1]. - **Spread Data**: The spread between CF1 - 5 was 0, unchanged from the previous day; the spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot market offers are mostly for 2025/26 new - cotton pre - sales, with stable to slightly discounted prices and good pre - sales transaction atmosphere. The 2024/25 spot is decreasing. Recently, the purchase price of seed cotton is stable and slightly weak, with the lower purchase price of machine - picked seed cotton with a lint percentage of 40% at about 5.9 - 6.1 yuan/kg and the higher purchase price at about 6.2 - 6.35 yuan/kg. The pre - sale price of new cotton in Kashgar in 2025/26 is around 14,500 yuan/ton, and the pre - sale basis is CF01 + 1000 - 1050, for delivery before mid - October. The lower pre - sale price of the 2025/26 new - cotton blind box is 14,650 - 14,750 yuan/ton, and the pre - sale basis is CF01 + 1050 - 1100, for delivery at the end of September and before mid - October [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The pure - cotton yarn market has seasonal rigid - demand purchases, with cautious purchases by traders and slow de - stocking. The price is negotiated according to the order volume. The price of pure - cotton cloth is stable and slightly weak, and the transaction atmosphere is weak. Currently, large new orders for weaving factories are few, and small orders are the main source to maintain production [2]. - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures continued to fluctuate around 66 cents/pound. The new US cotton has started to be listed, and poor export sales make ICE cotton lack upward momentum [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the value ranging from - 2 to 2 [5].

2025 年 09 月 29 日 尿素：短期震荡，趋势偏弱 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 尿素基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,669 | 1,674 | - 5 18699 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,673 | 1,675 | - 2 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 114,516 | 95,817 | | | | （01合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 292,033 | 301,894 | -9861 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 7,241 | 7,535 | -294 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 383,260 | 320,987 | 62272 | | | 基 差 | 山东地区基差 | | -69 | -59 | -10 0 | | | | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元 ...

棕榈油：短期反弹高度有限，轻仓过节 2025 年 9 月 29 日 商 品 研 究 豆油：美豆偏弱震荡，豆油上方空间难以打开 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,236 | 0.15% | 9,278 | 0.45% 0.20% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,162 | -0.37% | 8,178 | | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 10,162 | 0.20% | 10,150 | -0.12% | | | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,396 | -0.97% | | | | 期 货 | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 50.15 | -0.24% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 590,776 | -97580 | 363,269 | 5,880 | | | 豆 ...

2025 年 09 月 29 日 纯苯：国庆节前空单止盈 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z008016 Huangtianyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BZ2603 | 5903 | 5922 | -19 | BZ2603-EB2508 | -1104 | -794 | -310 | | BZ2604 | 5890 | 5915 | -25 | BZ2603-EB2509 | -867 | -882 | 15 | | BZ2605 | 5936 | 5940 | -4 | BZ2603-EB2603 | -1172 | -1149 | -23 | | BZ2603-BZ2604 | 13 | 7 | 6 | BZ2604-EB2604 | -1213 | -1185 | -28 | | BZ2604-BZ2605 | -46 | -25 | -21 | 山东纯苯价格 | 5865 | 5949 | -84 | | 纸货价格： ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the suspension of local trade - in subsidies [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 72,880, down 1,160 from T - 1; the trading volume was 481,020, up 138,301 from T - 1; the open interest was 248,640, down 12,501 from T - 1. For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 72,820, down 1,180 from T - 1; the trading volume was 110,012, up 24,442 from T - 1; the open interest was 173,994, down 4,353 from T - 1. The warehouse receipt volume was 40,329, up 20 from T - 1 [1] - **Base - related Data**: The spot - 2511 was 720, down 290 from T - 1; the spot - 2601 was 780, down 250 from T - 1; the 2511 - 2601 was 60, up 40 from T - 1; the electric carbon - industrial carbon was 2,250, unchanged from T - 1; the spot - CIF was 6,892, up 120 from T - 1 [1] - **Raw Material Data**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 857, up 1 from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,875, unchanged from T - 1 [1] - **Lithium Salt Data**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,600, down 150 from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,350, down 150 from T - 1; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 78,850, down 100 from T - 1 [1] - **Consumption - related Data**: The price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 117,625, up 1,100 from T - 1; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 120,375, up 600 from T - 1; the price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) was 148,800, up 750 from T - 1; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 58,250, up 250 from T - 1 [1] 2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,491 yuan/ton, down 187 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,600 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous working day, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,350 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous working day [2] - The Jiangsu Provincial Department of Commerce adjusted the automobile trade - in policy, suspending the automobile replacement subsidy policy at 24:00 on September 28, 2025. Consumers who met the application conditions and obtained the new - car invoice between January 1, 2025, and September 28, 2025, had to submit complete application materials before 24:00 on October 20, 2025 [2][3] - On the morning of September 28, the 40,000 - ton basic lithium salt integrated project and the 20,000 - ton lithium carbonate project of China Salt Lake Industry Group Co., Ltd. were successfully put into production in Golmud City, Haixi Mongolian and Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate was 0, indicating a neutral view [3]

苯乙烯：国庆节前空单止盈 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 29 日 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 Huangtianyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 苯乙烯基本面数据 | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯2511 | 7,152 | 7,176 | -24 | EB-BZ | 1315 | 1290 | 25 | | 苯乙烯2512 | 7,161 | 7,179 | -18 | 非一体化利润 | -143 | -131 | -12 | | 苯乙烯2510 | 7,387 | 7,374 | 13 | 一体化利润 | 689 | 756 | -67 | | EB10-EB11 | -9 | -3 | -6 | N+1合约 | 7460 | 7480 | -20 | | EB11-EB12 | -226 | -195 | -31 | N+2合约 | 7390 | 7370 | 20 | 资料来源：同花顺，卓创，国泰君安期货 注：趋势强度 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View - The report suggests that the stock index futures may stabilize [3]. 3. Key Points by Category 3.1 Index Futures Data - On September 28, all four current - month index futures contracts declined. IF fell 1.16%, IH fell 0.43%, IC fell 1.48%, and IM fell 1.33% [1]. - In terms of trading volume, the total trading volume of index futures rebounded, with IF decreasing by 12,397 lots, IH decreasing by 3,587 lots, IC increasing by 6,370 lots, and IM increasing by 30,154 lots [2]. - Regarding positions, IF's total positions decreased by 6,449 lots, IH's increased by 1,041 lots, IC's increased by 3,365 lots, and IM's increased by 11,537 lots [2]. 3.2 Index Futures Basis - The report presents the basis data of IF, IH, IC, and IM from September 2 to September 26 [4]. 3.3 Top 20 Member Positions - The report shows the changes in long and short positions of the top 20 members of each index futures contract, with some data not disclosed [5]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. 3.5 Important Drivers - From January to August, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 4,692.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In August, the profit increased by 20.4% year - on - year, turning from a 1.5% decline in the previous month [6]. - The central bank's monetary policy committee proposed to strengthen monetary policy regulation, guide financial institutions to increase credit supply, and maintain the stability of the capital market [6]. 3.6 Stock Market Performance - A - share indexes fluctuated downward. The ChiNext Index fell more than 2% below 3,200 points. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.65% to 3,828.11 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.76%, the ChiNext Index fell 2.6%, the North Star 50 fell 1.81%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 fell 1.6%, and the Wind All - A Index fell 1.2%. The trading volume of A - shares was 2.17 trillion yuan, down from 2.39 trillion yuan the previous day [7].

2025 年 09 月 29 日 短纤：短期震荡，趋势有压力，轻仓过节 瓶片：短期震荡，趋势有压力，轻仓过节 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2510 | 6326 | 6372 | -46 | PF10-11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | PF | 短纤2511 | 6326 | 6372 | -46 | PF11-12 | 30 | 110 | -80 | | | 短纤2512 | 6296 | 6262 | 34 | PF基差 | 114 | ୧୫ | 46 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 194228 | 160091 | 34137 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6.440 | 6.440 | 0 | | | 短纤主力成交 ...