2026 年 01 月 16 日 甲醇：跟随商品指数震荡回落 【基本面跟踪】 甲醇基本面数据 | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 甲醇主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 2,273 | 2,288 | -15 -99314 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 2,284 | 2,285 | - 1 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 1,472,669 | 1,571,983 | | | | （05合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 829,376 | 823,784 | 5592 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 8,355 | 7,655 | 700 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 3,363,551 | 3,592,518 | -228968 | | | 基 差 | 基 差 | | -33 | -31 | - 2 | | | 月 差 | MA01-MA05 | | -115 | -37 | -78 | | 现货市场 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory of lithium carbonate is being reduced, and the purchasing willingness is increasing, so there may be support at the lower level [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: - For the 2605 contract, the closing price is 163,220 yuan, the trading volume is 431,256 lots, and the open interest is 443,942 lots [1] - For the 2607 contract, the closing price is 164,400 yuan, the trading volume is 103,578 lots, and the open interest is 130,744 lots [1] - **Basis**: - The basis of spot - 2605 is -4,220 yuan; the basis of spot - 2607 is -5,400 yuan; the basis of 2605 - 2607 is -1,180 yuan; the difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon is 3,500 yuan; the difference between spot and CIF is 43,998 yuan [1] - **Raw Materials and Lithium Salts**: - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 2,060 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 4,935 yuan [1] - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 159,000 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 155,500 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) is 154,850 yuan [1] - The prices of various types of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials are also provided, as well as the prices of hexafluorophosphate lithium and electrolyte [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 160,260 yuan/ton, down 5,337 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 159,000 yuan/ton, down 4,000 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 155,500 yuan/ton, down 4,000 yuan/ton [2] - The price of electrolyte (for lithium iron phosphate) is 35,750 yuan [2] 3.3 Production and Inventory - This week, the lithium carbonate production is 22,605 tons, an increase of 70 tons from last week; the industry inventory is 109,679 tons, achieving a de - stocking of 263 tons from last week [3] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Short at high prices due to downstream production cuts [1] - Polysilicon: Sideways trend [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, profit, inventory, and macro - industry news. It also gives the trend strength of industrial silicon and polysilicon, guiding investment decisions [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Market**: For industrial silicon, Si2605's closing price was 8,730 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan from T - 1; its trading volume was 235,842 lots, down 10,094 lots from T - 1. For polysilicon, PS2605's closing price was 48,670 yuan/ton, down 275 yuan from T - 1; its trading volume was 12,703 lots, down 8,239 lots from T - 1 [2] - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premium (against East China Si5530) was +520 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan from T - 1. Polysilicon's spot premium (against N - type re - feed) was +6580 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan from T - 1 [2] - **Price**: Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8700 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1; polysilicon - N - type re - feed was 54750 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [2] - **Profit**: Silicon plant profit (Xinjiang new standard 553, yuan/ton) was - 2596.5, down 25 yuan from T - 1; polysilicon enterprise profit (yuan/kg) was 10.3, up 0.4 from T - 1 [2] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 55.5 tons, with an increase of 0.3 tons compared to T - 5; polysilicon's manufacturer inventory was 32.1 tons, with an increase of 1.9 tons compared to T - 5 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - China Meteorological Administration and National Energy Administration issued a guidance on promoting the construction of an energy meteorological service system. By 2027, an integrated energy meteorological service system will be basically established, and by 2030, key meteorological service technologies for water, wind, solar, and storage will reach international advanced levels [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: - 1 (indicating a bearish view); Polysilicon trend intensity: 0 (indicating a neutral view) [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market continues to be in an adjustment state. The prices of cotton futures and spot have shown certain fluctuations, and the trading atmosphere in the market is relatively weak [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2605 closed at 14,675 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.91%, and its night - session closed at 14,720 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.31%. CY2603 closed at 20,665 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.82%, and its night - session closed at 20,695 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.15%. ICE US cotton 3 closed at 64.62 cents/pound yesterday with a decline of 0.52% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CF2605 was 437,374 lots, a decrease of 19,780 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 1,212,127 lots, an increase of 435 lots. The trading volume of CY2603 was 6,755 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 15,580 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 9,329, an increase of 493, and the effective forecast was 1,209, a decrease of 403. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 70, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 7, an increase of 63 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan compared with the previous day, a decline of 0.83%. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan, a decline of 0.83%. The price in Shandong was 16,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan, a decline of 0.04%. The price in Hebei was 15,971 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan, a decline of 0.08%. The 3128B index was 15,972 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan, an increase of 0.01%. The international cotton index M was 73.04 cents/pound, an increase of 0.14% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The CF3 - 5 spread was - 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan compared with the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 840 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The trading of domestic cotton spot was average, and the basis of spot sales remained stable. The sales basis of 2025/26 Southern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3 was mostly at CF05 + 850 or above. The price of slightly contaminated cotton was lower, and it was picked up in Xinjiang. The sales basis of 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29B with impurity within 3 was around CF05 + 1000, and there was no slightly contaminated cotton, also picked up in Xinjiang [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price of pure cotton yarn was stable with a slight decline, and the trading atmosphere continued to be weak. The sales of pure cotton yarn categories were significantly differentiated. The sales pressure of low - count and conventional categories was prominent. Some manufacturers had an implicit decline or discount of 100 - 200 yuan/ton in actual transaction prices. The orders of combed high - count yarn continued to be good, the price was firm, and the order scheduling was relatively good [2]. - **US Cotton**: Yesterday, ICE cotton futures declined slightly. Although the weekly export data of US cotton was good, affected by the strengthening of the US dollar, ICE cotton futures failed to exceed the highs of the previous two days and then declined [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral state [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The sentiment in the oil and fat sector has warmed up as the US biodiesel policy is approaching implementation. However, the rebound of soybean oil is limited due to insufficient themes related to US soybeans [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,578 yuan/ton during the day session with a -1.94% change and 8,646 yuan/ton at night with a 0.79% change; soybean oil主力 closed at 7,938 yuan/ton during the day with a -0.78% change and 8,020 yuan/ton at night with a 1.03% change; rapeseed oil主力 closed at 8,828 yuan/ton during the day with a -1.35% change and 9,107 yuan/ton at night with a 3.16% change. The Malaysian palm oil主力 closed at 3,980 ringgit/ton during the day with a -1.56% change and 4,042 ringgit/ton at night with a 1.56% change. CBOT soybean oil主力 closed at 52.91 cents/pound with a 3.79% change [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of palm oil主力 was 534,066 lots with an increase of 2,265 lots, and the open interest was 429,816 lots with a decrease of 8,279 lots. The trading volume of soybean oil主力 was 241,830 lots with an increase of 4,046 lots, and the open interest was 712,266 lots with an increase of 3,882 lots. The trading volume of rapeseed oil主力 was 259,502 lots with an increase of 34,010 lots, and the open interest was 258,828 lots with an increase of 12,208 lots [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,650 yuan/ton with a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,530 yuan/ton with a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,750 yuan/ton with a decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,030 dollars/ton with a decrease of 5 dollars/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 72 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 592 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 922 yuan/ton. The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures主力 was 250 yuan/ton (previous trading day), and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures主力 was - 640 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Trump administration is advancing the biofuel policy. It is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March, keeping it roughly at the current proposed level. The range of biodiesel quota is being weighed between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons, and the current proposal is 5.6 billion gallons. The plan to penalize imports of renewable fuels and their raw materials is expected to be abandoned [2][3]. - According to NOPA data, the US soybean oil inventory in December 2025 was 1.642 billion pounds, lower than the market expectation of 1.686 billion pounds and higher than 1.513 billion pounds in November 2025. The US soybean crushing volume in December 2025 was 224.991 million bushels, slightly higher than the market expectation of 224.809 million bushels and higher than 216.041 million bushels in November 2025 [3]. - According to CONAB's January forecast, the 2025/26 soybean production in Brazil is expected to reach 176.1244 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6439 million tons or 2.7% [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is both 1 [4].

2026 年 1 月 16 日 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6785 | -0.51% | 629172 | 980 | | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 基差月差变化 | 05合约基差 | -135 | | -120 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -29 | | -35 | | | | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | | 前日价格（元/吨） | | | 重要现货价格 | 华 北 | 6650 | | 6700 | | | | 华 东 | 6800 | | 6850 | | | | 华 南 | 6850 | | 6900 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货开始回调，前期盘面反弹，市场补空和套保成交积极，现货短期流动性收紧，标品排产偏低水平 ...

PP：单体价格继续分化，PP 成本支撑偏强 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 PP 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PP2605 | 6592 | 0.03% | 564952 | 7306 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -172 | | -170 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -35 | | -43 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华 北 | 6420 | | 6400 | | | | 华 东 | 6420 | | 6420 | | | | 华 南 | 6450 | | 6460 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 2026 年 1 月 16 日 商 品 研 究 盘面回落，部分套盘资源无法解套，现货端销售收紧，贸易商整体挺价意愿偏强，特别是针 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy - chemical futures, including price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and trading strategies for each commodity [1][2] - Different commodities show diverse trends, such as some being in a short - term shock state, some showing a weakening trend, and others having a strong supply - demand relationship [2] 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Valuation follows the cost - side correction, relatively neutral. Future supply is expected to be loose, and attention should be paid to the terminal restocking and the long - PX short - PTA hedging position [8] - **PTA**: The processing fee is high, and attention should be paid to reducing the processing - fee position. The supply increase is limited, and the polyester production cut plan increases, but the actual implementation needs to be observed [9] - **MEG**: Unilateral short - term strong rebound, short positions should leave. Attention should be paid to the spring inspection of coal - chemical ethylene glycol plants and the 5 - 9 positive spread [9] Rubber - It shows a weakening shock trend. The fundamentals are multi - empty intertwined. The domestic production area is at the end of the tapping season, while Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. The price is affected by macro - sentiment and fundamental contradictions [10][13] LLDPE - The standard - product production ratio remains low, and spot trading has weakened. The raw - material oil price is strong, but the ethylene monomer is weak. There is a supply - demand pressure in the medium - term due to high capacity and weakening demand [14][15] PP - Monomer prices continue to diverge, and the cost support is relatively strong. However, the end - of - year demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [17][18] Caustic Soda - It is in a weakening shock state. High production and high inventory persist. Demand is weak, and supply pressure is large. Without production cuts, it is difficult to rebound significantly [20][22] Pulp - It shows a weakening shock trend. The import market sentiment is light, and the price trend is differentiated. The port inventory is accumulating, and the downstream demand lacks new growth [25][29] Glass - The raw - sheet price is stable. The domestic float - glass price shows a pattern of being weak in the north and strong in the south. Supply - side pressure eases slightly, and downstream demand is weak [31][32] Methanol - It follows the commodity index to oscillate and decline. The port market oscillates and consolidates, and the inland price continues to fall. High inventory and weak demand suppress the market [34][36] Styrene - It is in a short - term shock state. The current valuation is high, and attention should be paid to shorting opportunities. In the medium - term, there is still pressure due to the weakening of the PX - BZ and overseas oil - blending drivers and high domestic inventory [38][40] Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The domestic float - glass price is stable with partial declines. Demand support is weakening, and the overall supply - demand situation is not good [42][43] LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Short - term supply is tight, and geopolitical disturbances are strong [46] - **Propylene**: Spot supply and demand are tightening, and the trend is strong [47] PVC - It is in a weakening shock state. The market has high production and high inventory, and the anti - involution sentiment is weakening. It is recommended to enter the market after seeing substantial large - scale maintenance plans [55][56] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session decline suspends the upward trend [58] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It turns to decline, and the high - low sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market continues to shrink [58] Container Freight Index (European Line) - It is in a weakening shock state. Attention should be paid to the resumption - of - navigation expectation for the far - month contract. The 02 contract should be observed, and the 04 and 10 contracts can be considered for short - selling [60][76] Staple Fiber and Bottle Chip - Both are in a short - term shock state. The staple - fiber futures oscillate and decline, and the bottle - chip factory lowers the price following the raw - material decline [79][80] Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to stop losses on short positions opportunistically. The market price is stable, production is stable in some areas, but downstream demand is limited [82][85] Pure Benzene - It is mainly in a short - term shock state. The port inventory is rising, and the market buying interest has retreated due to the price decline in East China and the futures market [87][89]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The container shipping index (European Line) is expected to oscillate weakly. The 2602 contract is recommended for observation, the 2604 contract can consider rolling short positions, and the 2610 contract should hold short positions lightly and short on rallies in the medium - to - long - term. The trend strength of the container shipping index (European Line) is -1 [11][15]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Performance - The main 2604 contract of the container shipping index (European Line) closed at 1202.7 points, with an increase of 788 lots in positions and a decline of 0.07%. The secondary main 2602 contract closed at 1719.0 points, with a decrease of 1583 lots in positions and a rise of 0.5% [11]. 2. Fundamental Data 2.1 Futures Data | Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | Trading Volume/Open Interest (Yesterday) | Trading Volume/Open Interest (Day before Yesterday) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2602 | 1719.0 | 0.50% | 2673 | 8878 | -1583 | 0.30 | 0.54 | | EC2604 | 1202.7 | -0.07% | 40524 | 40832 | 788 | 0.99 | 1.13 | [1] 2.2 Freight Rate Index Data - SCFIS: European route was 1956.39 points, with a weekly increase of 8.9%; US West route was 1323.98 points, with a weekly increase of 5.9%. - SCFI: European route was $1719/TEU, with a bi - weekly increase of 1.7%; US West route was $2218/FEU, with a bi - weekly increase of 1.4% [1]. 2.3 Spot Freight Data - Different carriers' shipping prices from Shanghai to Rotterdam in the short - term European line vary. For example, Maersk's $/40'GP is 2420 and $/20'GP is 1510 [1]. 2.4 Exchange Rate Data - The US dollar index was 99.35, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.97 [1]. 3. Capacity Analysis - In January, the weekly average capacity was 30.9 million TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.4%. In February, the weekly average capacity was revised down to 27.1 million TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 17.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.5%. In March, the weekly average capacity was 28.4 million TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% and a month - on - month increase of 5%. The Spring Festival suspension is mainly concentrated from the second half of February to the first week of March. The average capacities before, during, and after the Spring Festival in 2026 were 31.3, 22.1, and 30.7 million TEU/week respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 2.3%, 3.3%, and 20.4%. The capacity pressure after the festival is relatively greater [12]. 4. Geopolitical Situation - Hamas officials are ready to transfer their responsibilities to the Palestinian technocratic institution. Trump is closely monitoring the situation in Iran and keeping all options open. Maersk's MECL route will resume structural operation at the end of January and has a contingency plan [13]. 5. Demand Analysis - In January, most shipping companies felt that the BCO/NVO cargo volume was good, but the FAK side was average. The peak of cargo volume usually occurs around mid - January and then declines. The Ministry of Finance's tax - refund policy adjustment is expected to boost the overall demand for container shipping (European Line) from January to March and have a negative impact on demand after April [14]. 6. Spot Freight Forecast - It is expected that the average FAK from the 3rd to 4th week will be adjusted down to the range of $2600 - 2670/FEU, which will set the first - phase delivery settlement price of the 2602 contract on January 26 [14]. 7. Strategy Suggestions - For the 2602 contract, the valuation center may fall in the range of 1700 - 1750 points, and it is recommended to wait and see. For the 2604 contract, although there is a marginal benefit of the rush - shipping of photovoltaic and battery products in the first quarter, it cannot reverse the weak supply - demand balance in the off - season from March to April, and it can consider rolling short positions, with the upper pressure level referring to the range of 1200 - 1250 points. For the 2610 contract, hold short positions lightly and short on rallies in the medium - to - long - term, with the upper pressure level referring to the delivery settlement price of 1161 points of the 2510 contract [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the document. Core Views of the Report - The central bank has lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The bond market fluctuations are concentrated in the ultra - long - term, and the A - share market is expected to maintain a stable growth trend in 2026. The market sentiment of treasury bond futures remains oscillating and bearish since mid - last year, with short - term resilience and a possible slight recovery in the long - term [7][9]. - Affected by the expected US biodiesel policy, rapeseed oil is expected to shift from a recent weak trend to a wide - range oscillating trend. The valuation of PX has returned with the cost - end adjustment, and the supply is expected to gradually loosen. PTA's polyester production cut plan has increased, and the actual implementation needs attention. MEG's supply pressure has eased, and the short - term is expected to rebound strongly [10][81]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Treasury Bonds - Central bank policies: Lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, with the one - year re - loan rate dropping to 1.25%. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [7]. - Market analysis: The bond market fluctuations are concentrated in the ultra - long - term. Treasury bond futures maintain an oscillating and bearish view since mid - last year. Short - term has resilience, and the long - term may have a slight recovery. It is recommended to conduct 30 - 10 spread compression trading and long - position substitution in the short - term, and continue to recommend hedging at high levels, long - spread trading, and positive spread trading in the medium - term [9]. 2. Rapeseed Oil - Policy impact: The expected US biodiesel policy is expected to boost global oil and fat consumption and support the international rapeseed oil price. The domestic rapeseed oil market is in a situation of strong current reality but weak expectations, and it is expected to shift from a weak trend to a wide - range oscillating trend [10]. 3. PX, PTA, MEG - PX: The valuation has returned with the cost - end adjustment, and the supply is expected to gradually loosen. Overseas processing fee hedging has entered the market, and domestic PX factories' hedging positions have increased. The downstream PTA and polyester's future production is expected to decline [81]. - PTA: The processing fee is at a high level. The supply side's production increase space is limited, and the polyester production cut plan has further increased. The actual implementation needs to be observed. The unilateral price has limited downward space [82]. - MEG: The short - term is expected to rebound strongly, and short positions should be closed. Attention should be paid to the spring maintenance implementation of coal - chemical ethylene glycol plants, and long the 5 - 9 spread at low levels [82]. 4. Other Commodities - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded [16]. - Copper: The strengthening of the US dollar restricts price increases [16]. - Zinc: It is easy to rise but difficult to fall [16]. - Lead: The decrease in LME inventory supports the price [16]. - Tin: It is consolidating at a high level [16]. - Aluminum: Slightly under pressure [16]. - Alumina: Oscillating downward [16]. - Platinum: Oscillating upward [16]. - Palladium: Following the upward oscillation [16]. - Nickel: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, and it operates in a wide - range oscillation [16]. - Stainless steel: The price center of gravity is lifted by ferronickel, and the market is speculating on Indonesian policies [16]. - Lithium carbonate: With inventory reduction and increased purchasing willingness, there may be support at the bottom [16]. - Industrial silicon: Downstream production cuts, and it is advisable to short at high levels [16]. - Polysilicon: In an oscillating state [16]. - Iron ore: The valuation is high, and it is necessary to be cautious about chasing up [16]. - Rebar: Oscillating repeatedly [16]. - Hot - rolled coil: Oscillating repeatedly [16]. - Ferrosilicon: The raw material cost is loosening, and it oscillates in a wide range [16]. - Silicomanganese: The demand side is slightly tightening, and it oscillates in a wide range [16]. - Coke: Oscillating at a high level [16]. - Coking coal: Oscillating at a high level [16]. - Steam coal: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price is adjusted narrowly in the short term [16]. - Log: Oscillating repeatedly [16]. - Rubber: Oscillating weakly [16]. - Synthetic rubber: Oscillating at a high level [16]. - LLDPE: The production of standard products remains at a low level, and spot transactions have weakened [16]. - PP: The monomer prices continue to diverge, and the cost support is relatively strong [16]. - Caustic soda: Oscillating weakly [16]. - Pulp: Oscillating weakly [16]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable [16]. - Methanol: Oscillating and falling following the commodity index [16]. - Urea: Oscillating in the short term and the central price is expected to rise in the medium term [16]. - Styrene: Oscillating in the short term [16]. - Soda ash: The spot market has little change [16]. - LPG: The short - term supply is tight, and geopolitical disturbances are strong [128]. - Propylene: The spot supply and demand are tightening, and the trend is strong [129]. - PVC: Oscillating weakly [16]. - Fuel oil: The night - session decline has paused the upward trend [16]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Turning to decline, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market continues to shrink [16]. - Container Freight Index (European Line): Oscillating weakly; pay attention to the resumption of shipping expectations for the far - month contracts [16]. - Short - fiber: In a short - term oscillating market [16]. - Bottle chips: In a short - term oscillating market [16]. - Offset printing paper: Consider closing short positions opportunistically [16]. - Pure benzene: Oscillating mainly in the short term [16]. - Palm oil: The sentiment in the oil and fat sector has warmed up as the US biodiesel policy is approaching implementation [16]. - Soybean oil: The rebound height is limited due to the lack of soybean - related themes [16]. - Soybean meal: Wait and see, pending the progress of China - Canada trade consultations [16]. - Soybean: Rebounding and oscillating [16]. - Corn: Pay attention to the spot price [16]. - Sugar: Mainly operating weakly [16]. - Cotton: Continuing the adjustment trend [16]. - Eggs: The spot market is profitable, and the sentiment for far - month contracts has weakened [16]. - Hogs: The demand expectation has been priced in advance [16]. - Peanuts: Oscillating [16].