Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for short - fiber (PF) is "oscillating weakly" [8] - The investment rating for bottle chips (PR) is "oscillating weakly" [5] Report's Core View - For short - fiber, market sentiment premium is released, and it shows a unilateral oscillating weak trend. Although downstream demand is expected to improve in mid - to late August, and the factory profit is near the cash - flow cost with neutral inventory, the tariff will still have an impact on exports in the medium - to long - term. In the future, there is limited room for further increasing production, and the processing fee is expected to expand as the peak demand season approaches [9] - For bottle chips, market sentiment premium is released, and it also shows a unilateral oscillating weak trend. After the production cut, the spot processing fee is still below the factory target. The demand support is strong, and the export disturbance is alleviated. However, there are pressure factors in the future, such as the increase in production after the end of the production cut and the demand situation in September - October [13] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Short - fiber (PF) Valuation and Profit - The current spot processing fee is 950 - 1000 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract processing fee on the futures market is 850 - 900 yuan/ton. The processing fee below 900 yuan/ton is undervalued, and there is an upward momentum when the demand is expected to improve [10] Fundamental Operating Conditions - **Supply**: Based on low processing fees and inventory pressure, factories maintain high - level production. The average factory operating rate this week is 90.3%, and the operating rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber for spinning is 94.7%. It is expected to remain stable or increase slightly in the future [9] - **Demand**: The operating rate of terminal weaving has bottomed out and is rising, but the short - term demand is still weak, and the short - fiber inventory has slightly accumulated. The 1.4D equity inventory is 10.4 days, and the physical inventory is 22.4 days. The demand is expected to improve in mid - to late August [9] Strategy - **Unilateral**: None - **Inter - period**: None - **Inter - variety**: Go long on PF and short on PTA, and go long on PF and short on PR when the price is low [11] Bottle Chips (PR) Upstream View Summary - The "anti - involution" policy may lead to cost increases, but has little impact on the supply of bottle chips due to the relatively small number of old - generation devices [12][17] Valuation and Profit - The current processing fee is 350 - 400 yuan/ton, which is moderately low and below the break - even line of most factories. It is expected to rise slowly as the spot supply tightens [13] Fundamental Operating Conditions - **Supply**: After the production cut, the processing fee has not risen above the factory cost. Factories are expected to maintain the current production - cut level until late August or the end of August. The total production capacity involved in the production cut by leading factories is about 2.4 million tons, and it has been fully implemented. The current operating rate is 79% [12] - **Demand**: The operating rate of domestic downstream industries remains high, and downstream enterprises replenish inventory at low prices. After the full implementation of the production cut, the bottle - chip inventory is expected to decline slightly from July to August. The factory inventory this week is about 18 days, remaining unchanged from the previous week [12] Strategy - **Unilateral**: There is pressure in the trend - **Inter - period**: None - **Inter - variety**: Go long on PF and short on PR when the price is low [14] Cost and Profit - The polymerization cost has decreased, and this week it is around 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee of bottle chips has remained stable this week, at around 380 - 400 yuan/ton. The export profit is oscillating weakly, and the internal - external price difference has narrowed [54] Inventory - The overall PTA inventory of polyester factories has decreased. The inventory of domestic polyester bottle - chip factories is 17.6 days (CCF data). The estimated social inventory at the end of June, July, and August is 3.07 million tons, 3 million tons, and 2.83 million tons respectively [59] Device Changes - The production cut is expected to last until late August or the end of August. For example, Chongqing Wankai plans to shut down 600,000 - ton production capacity for maintenance from July 5th for about one and a half months, and Yisheng Hainan has gradually shut down 1.25 - million - ton production capacity for maintenance since July 1st [65] Demand - **Downstream industries**: This week, the overall downstream operating rate has changed little. The operating rate of beverage enterprises has increased to 95 - 100%, the average operating rate of edible - oil enterprises is around 70 - 80%, and the operating rate of sheet - material industries in East China is around 60 - 80% and 40 - 60% in South China [69] - **Consumption situation**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft - drink production is 3.0%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of beverage - category commodity retail sales is 0.6%. The consumption of beverages and edible oils is generally weak, which is related to the high base last year and the crowding - out effect of optional consumption on essential consumption [75] Export Situation - In June 2025, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices is 657,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. From January to June 2025, the total export volume is 3.88 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19%. Short - term disturbances include the impact of the US tariff renegotiation on re - exports from South Korea and Vietnam and the impact of the Turkish SASA's production on local exports [88] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From July to August, the supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and inventory will start to accumulate again after September. Supply - side assumptions include that the production cut may last until the end of August, and new capacity will be put into operation in September. Demand assumptions include that downstream demand is estimated to increase by 5% year - on - year during the peak season, and export demand is expected to recover in August [100][102]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The synthetic rubber market is expected to operate weakly in the short - term with narrowing downside space. The butadiene market is likely to experience a short - term callback and then enter a weak pattern in the medium - term [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber View - **Supply**: High - cis butadiene rubber production and capacity utilization continued to increase this week. Next week, production is expected to decline slightly due to planned shutdowns and potential restarts [4]. - **Demand**: In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to be slightly adjusted. Substitute demand remains high, and overall demand maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4]. - **Inventory**: As of July 30, 2025, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises decreased. Sample production enterprise inventory decreased while sample trading enterprise inventory increased slightly [4]. - **View**: In the short - term, butadiene rubber futures prices are expected to correct from high levels and enter an oscillatory pattern in the medium - term. The theoretical valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 11,000 - 11,800 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is bearish. For cross - period trading, there is no recommendation. For cross - variety trading, the NR - BR spread is expected to shrink in the short - term [4]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene View - **Supply**: Domestic butadiene supply remained stable this week, with production at 103,400 tons and capacity utilization at 69.97% [5]. - **Demand**: The demand from synthetic rubber for butadiene remains high, while the demand from ABS is expected to remain constant, and the demand from SBS maintains rigid procurement [5]. - **Inventory**: The total domestic butadiene sample inventory dropped to a low for the year, with port inventory significantly reduced due to weather - related factors [5]. - **View**: In the short - term, butadiene spot prices are expected to correct, but the decline is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure is the main contradiction, and it is expected to enter a weak pattern after the macro - sentiment eases [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - Butadiene is in the stage of supply - demand pricing and has a low correlation with the raw material end. Its capacity is in a state of continuous expansion, with the speed and amplitude slightly faster than that of downstream industries [8][10]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Supply of Butadiene Rubber**: Production and capacity utilization have shown changes. Costs, profits, and import - export volumes also have their own trends. Inventory levels have decreased [37][40][47]. - **Demand of Butadiene Rubber**: The demand from the tire industry is related to factors such as inventory and capacity utilization [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the methanol industry is one of oscillatory pressure [2][4] Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the methanol market is expected to be oscillatory and weak, while in the medium - term, it will enter an oscillatory pattern. The short - term weakness is due to the departure of speculative funds and the strengthening of the basis, which may increase supply pressure in the spot market. In the medium - term, anti - involution policies and a neutral fundamental situation will support an oscillatory trend [4] - Unilateral trading: Short - term unilateral weakness, medium - term oscillation; with upper pressure at 2420 - 2430 yuan/ton and lower support at 2320 - 2330 yuan/ton [4] - Strategy: The 9 - 1 spread is still in a reverse arbitrage pattern but the downside space is narrowing. It may shift to a positive arbitrage in mid - to - early August when the main contract changes to 01. The spread between MA and PP has entered an oscillatory pattern [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - Multiple charts show the trends of basis, monthly spreads, warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price differentials from 2020 to 2025 [7][8][9][10][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22] Supply - New capacity: In 2024, the total expansion of methanol capacity was 400 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 840 tons, with most new projects located in the northwest region [24] - Maintenance: A list of domestic methanol plant maintenance shows various plants in different regions with different start and end times, some of which are long - term shutdowns [26] - Production and capacity utilization: Weekly and daily data charts show the production and capacity utilization of methanol in China and different regions from 2018 to 2025, including production by process and regional capacity utilization [27][29][30][31][33][34] - Import - related: Charts display the monthly import volume, import cost, weekly arrival volume, and import profit of methanol in China from 2020 to 2025 [37][38][39][40] - Cost and profit: Charts show the production cost and profit of methanol by different production processes in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [42][43][44][46][47][48][49] Demand - Downstream capacity utilization: Charts present the capacity utilization of methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, and other downstream industries in China from 2020 to 2025 [52][53][54][56][57] - Downstream profit: Charts show the production profit of methanol - to - olefins, formaldehyde, MTBE, and glacial acetic acid in different regions from 2020 to 2025 [60][61][63][64][65][66] - Procurement volume: Charts display the procurement volume of methanol by methanol - to - olefins production enterprises and traditional downstream manufacturers in China and different regions from 2020 to 2025 [68][69][70][71][73][74][75][76] - Raw material inventory: Charts show the raw material inventory of traditional downstream methanol manufacturers in China and different regions from 2020 to 2025 [78][79][80][81] Inventory - Factory inventory: Charts show the weekly factory inventory of methanol in China and different regions from 2018 to 2025 [83][84][85][86] - Port inventory: Charts show the weekly port inventory of methanol in China and different regions from 2018 to 2025 [89][90][91]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that due to the high - yield in South America, there is no basis for a bull market. However, cost support reduces the probability of a sharp decline. The market is generally oscillating with a slight upward trend, in the range of 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5] - Negative factors include the potential deterioration of US soybean export situation due to US tariff hikes on the world, good weather in the main US soybean - producing areas leading to high yield expectations, and the weekly soybean good - to - excellent rate being higher than expected [5] - Positive factors are the support from biodiesel policies and the expectation of improved China - US relations, a tight balance in the old - crop balance sheet, and the planting area being slightly lower than expected [5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - This week, US soybean prices declined due to good precipitation in the main US soybean - producing areas. Next week, key points to watch are the US tariff hikes on other countries and the weather in the main US producing areas [7] - This week, US soybean meal prices fluctuated at a low level, mainly due to the unwinding of the buy - oil - sell - meal arbitrage [11] - This week, US soybean oil prices rose first and then fell. On one hand, good weather in the main US soybean - producing areas pressured soybean prices; on the other hand, the large - scale unwinding of the buy - oil - sell - meal arbitrage positions led to a decline in oil prices and an increase in meal prices [14][15] - As of the week ending July 25, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports was $10.99 per bushel. The purchase price at farms (Iowa) was $9.81 per bushel and was falling. As of July 31, the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa was $9.59 per bushel and was falling [18][21][23] - The spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, continued to rise to 116.79 reais per bag. As of August 1, the spot price at Brazilian ports rose to 139.04 reais per bag [26][28] 3.2 Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas continued to improve, with the drought rate at 14%, compared to 17% last week [31] - In the next two weeks, the temperature in central US will be lower than normal, and precipitation in the central US soybean - producing areas will be slightly less. Precipitation in Brazilian producing areas is normal but on the low side, and precipitation in Argentine soybean - producing areas is basically normal [33][35][38] - As of July 25, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, up from 68% last week and 67% in the same period last year [42] 3.3 Demand Factors - As of July 25, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.66 per bushel, up from $2.2 last week [45] - The weekly US soybean export volume was 499,600 tons, up from 303,200 tons last week. The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 409,700 tons, up from 377,000 tons last week [47][49] - The net sales of US soybeans this year were 349,100 tons, up from 103,400 tons last week. The sales of US soybeans for the next year were 429,400 tons, up from 238,800 tons last week [51][53] - The quantity of US soybeans shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [55] 3.4 Other Factors - The latest ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) value is - 0.47, approaching the La Nina range [58] - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [60][62] - As of July 29, the net short position of soybeans in CFTC was 18,700 contracts, compared to a net long position of 6,200 contracts last week. The net long position of soybean oil was 83,300 contracts, up from 72,500 contracts last week. The net short position of soybean meal was 112,900 contracts, up from 103,700 contracts last week [66][68][70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum prices are expected to have a certain premium squeezed out in August and September, but the depth of the correction is not significant. The key lies in the limited height of the current inventory accumulation. The possibility of a lackluster peak season in late August and September depends on whether the pre - placement of previous export demand has led to a lack of quality in traditional second - half export orders [3]. - Alumina prices continue to decline as the "anti - involution" premium is squeezed out and inventory accumulates. Although there are uncertainties on the supply side, the supply - side relaxation in the spot market may put pressure on the price [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Aluminum - **Price Trend**: The Shanghai Aluminum main contract has shown a mild downward trend after failing to break through near the 21,000 mark. The premium of traditional non - ferrous metals has been squeezed out, but the decline is relatively mild [3]. - **Micro - fundamentals**: As of July 31, the SMM East China spot has turned to a discount, with a discount of 20 yuan/ton on Friday. The aluminum ingot social inventory has continued to accumulate by 3.1 tons to 52.5 tons. The weekly output of aluminum plate, strip, and foil has rebounded, but the cumulative output since the beginning of the year has still decreased by 0.73%. The output and sample production schedule of aluminum profiles have continued to weaken. The processing fee of aluminum rods has increased by 110 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years [3]. 3.2 Alumina - **Price Trend**: The price center has continued to decline as the "anti - involution" premium is squeezed out and inventory accumulates. Although the spot price showed a turning point this week, considering the possible further relaxation of spot supply in mid - August, the futures price may still face pressure [6]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of July 31, the national alumina inventory was 324.3 tons, an increase of 3.6 tons from the previous week. The in - plant inventory decreased by 2.3 tons, the electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory increased by 4.6 tons, the port inventory remained unchanged, and the yard/platform/in - transit inventory increased by 1.3 tons [51]. 3.3 Transaction - related - **Term Spread**: This week, the A00 spot premium has weakened, while the alumina spot premium has strengthened. The Shanghai Aluminum near - month spread has widened [11][12]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The positions and trading volumes of both the Shanghai Aluminum and alumina main contracts have declined [14]. - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: The position - to - inventory ratio of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract has declined, and that of alumina has continued to fall and is at a historically low level [19]. 3.4 Inventory - related - **Bauxite**: As of August 1, the port inventory of imported bauxite has decreased by 1.44 million tons week - on - week. As of June, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises has continued to decline. The port shipping volume of Guinea and Australia has decreased, while the floating inventory has increased. The outbound volume of Guinea has increased, and the inbound volume has slightly decreased [24][29][30]. - **Alumina**: The total national inventory has continued to accumulate significantly. As of July 31, the inventory was 324.3 tons, an increase of 3.6 tons from the previous week [51]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of July 31, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has increased by 3.1 tons to 52.5 tons [52]. - **Aluminum Rod**: The spot and in - plant inventories have slightly decreased, and the outbound volume has increased [58]. - **Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Strip - Foil**: As of June, the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles has slightly decreased, while the raw - material inventory ratio has slightly increased. The finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum plate, strip, and foil has significantly increased, and the raw - material inventory has greatly increased [60]. 3.5 Production - related - **Bauxite**: As of July, the domestic bauxite production under the SMM caliber has slightly increased. The production in Shanxi has remained stable under the Steel Union caliber in June and slightly decreased under the SMM caliber in July. The production in Henan has increased slightly under the Steel Union caliber in June and decreased by 3.2 tons under the SMM caliber in July. The production in Guangxi has decreased significantly under the Steel Union caliber in June and increased by 8.94 tons under the SMM caliber in July [65][69]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate has remained stable. As of August 1, the total operating capacity of national alumina was 94.6 million tons, with a weekly increase of 100,000 tons. The domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production this week was 1.847 million tons, an increase of 16,000 tons from the previous week, remaining at a high level in recent years [73]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of June, the operating capacity has remained at a high level. As of July 31, the weekly production of electrolytic aluminum under the Steel Union caliber was 845,400 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from the previous week. The aluminum - water ratio has decreased seasonally [78]. - **Downstream Processing**: The production of recycled aluminum rods has decreased by 1,290 tons week - on - week. The production of aluminum rods has increased by 3,400 tons week - on - week. The production of aluminum plate, strip, and foil has increased by 4,950 tons week - on - week [81]. 3.6 Profit - related - **Alumina**: The smelting profit has continued to recover, with a slight decline this week. The profit in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan has remained stable, and the profit in Guangxi is better than that in other regions [89]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit remains at a high level, but global macroeconomic complexity, geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertainties and interfered with market expectations [98]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods has significantly increased by 110 yuan/ton week - on - week, but the downstream processing profit remains at a low level [99]. 3.7 Consumption - related - **Import and Export Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai Aluminum have widened. In June 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products has significantly decreased by 57,000 tons month - on - month [107][109]. - **Absolute Consumption Volume**: The transaction area of commercial housing has declined, while the automobile production has increased month - on - month [116].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The pulp market is expected to be weakly stable with oscillations in the short - term. The high inventory on the supply side and the weak demand during the traditional off - season are putting pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of policy implementation and the arrival of goods at major ports [77][78]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Industry News - As of July 31, 2025, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 514,000 tons, a decrease of 62,000 tons (10.8% MoM); at Qingdao Port, it was 1,405,000 tons, an increase of 43,000 tons (3.2% MoM); at Gaolan Port, it was 70,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons (13.6% MoM). The total inventory of major ports was 2,105,000 tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons (1.8% MoM) [6]. - Shandong Yinhe Ruixue Paper plans to build a 300,000 - ton pulping project, with a total investment of 2,207.94 million yuan, scheduled to start in January 2026 and be put into production in December 2027 [6]. Market Data - On August 1, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 664 yuan/ton (66% MoM, 82.42% YoY), the basis of Russian Needle was 114 yuan/ton (670% MoM, 416.67% YoY), and the price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 550 yuan/ton (30.95% MoM, 37.5% YoY) [15]. - On August 1, 2025, the 09 - 11 month - spread was - 6 yuan/ton (- 106.38% MoM), and the 11 - 01 month - spread was - 224 yuan/ton (- 53.42% MoM) [20]. Fundamental Data - **Price: Softwood - Hardwood Price Difference and Import Profit** - On August 1, 2025, the price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 1,730 yuan/ton (- 2.26% MoM, 73% YoY), and the price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 1,180 yuan/ton (- 12.59% MoM, 96.67% YoY) [29]. - On August 1, 2025, the import profit of Silver Star was - 46.91 yuan/ton (- 259.84% MoM, 67.76% YoY), and the import profit of Star was 0.48 yuan/ton (- 98.63% MoM, 100.18% YoY) [35]. - **Price: Softwood Pulp** - On August 1, 2025, the prices of Silver Star, Cariboo, Northern Pine, Lion Brand, and Russian Needle were 5,850 yuan/ton, 5,950 yuan/ton, 6,150 yuan/ton, 5,950 yuan/ton, and 5,300 yuan/ton respectively, with varying MoM and YoY changes [36]. - **Price: Hardwood Pulp** - On August 1, 2025, the prices of Goldfish, Star, Bird, and Broadleaf were 4,120 yuan/ton, 4,120 yuan/ton, 4,100 yuan/ton, and 4,100 yuan/ton respectively, with varying MoM and YoY changes [43]. - **Price: Natural Color Pulp and Chemimechanical Pulp** - On August 1, 2025, the prices of Venus and Kunhe were 5,000 yuan/ton and 3,700 yuan/ton respectively, with no MoM change and different YoY changes [47]. - **Supply** - In June 2025, the European port inventory was 1.56 million tons (1.89% MoM, 34.72% YoY), and the global pulp shipment volume in May was 4.155 million tons (1.91% MoM, - 9.18% YoY) [49]. - In June 2025, the pulp import volume was 3.031 million tons (4.2% YoY), including 1.435 million tons of hardwood pulp (11% MoM) [77]. - **Demand** - On August 1, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of white cardboard, tissue paper, offset paper, and coated paper were 72.68%, 63.2%, 55.44%, and 57.88% respectively, with varying MoM and YoY changes [56]. - The prices of major finished papers were at a low level this year, and the terminal consumption had no new incremental demand [78]. - The profits of white cardboard, offset paper, and coated paper decreased, while the profit of tissue paper increased [65]. - **Inventory** - On August 1, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in warehouses was 235,400 tons (- 0.45% MoM, - 49.14% YoY), and in factories was 19,200 tons (0% MoM, - 42.05% YoY) [66]. - On August 1, 2025, the inventory at Qingdao Port was 1,405,000 tons (3.16% MoM, 29.49% YoY), at Changshu Port was 514,000 tons (- 10.76% MoM, 5.54% YoY), and the total inventory of five ports was 2,105,000 tons (- 1.77% MoM, 18.06% YoY) [74]. This Week's View Summary - **Supply**: The inventory of major ports decreased in July, and the import volume remained high. China plans to add 3.206 million tons of pulp production capacity in the second half of 2025 [77]. - **Demand**: The traditional off - season effect is prominent, with a decrease in monthly pulp consumption and low prices of base paper [78]. - **View**: The market is expected to be weakly stable with oscillations in the short - term. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and the arrival of goods at major ports [78]. - **Valuation**: The basis of Silver Star in Shandong increased by 46 yuan/ton. - **Strategy**: Short - term near - month contracts are weak, far - month contracts may be stable; consider reverse arbitrage [79].

国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 日期：2025年8月3日 GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：多单持有，酌情逢低 | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | 加多 | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 | | | | | | | 净持仓变化 | SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 2 观点综述 01 本周原油观点：多单持有，酌情逢低加多 | 供应 | OPEC+核心国家（沙特、阿联酋等 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to continue its weak consolidation in the short - term. The supply from the producing areas is increasing, raw material prices are falling, cost support is weakening, terminal demand is weak, and the market's bearish sentiment is rising [81][82]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - ANRPC predicts that global natural rubber production in 2025 will increase by 0.5% year - on - year to 1.4892 billion tons, and consumption will increase by 1.3% to 1.5565 billion tons. In June, production was expected to fall by 1.5% to 1.191 million tons, and consumption to rise by 0.7% to 1.271 million tons. The price showed a bearish trend due to supply improvement, rising port inventories, and trade tariff uncertainties [5]. - In the second quarter of 2025, the European replacement tire market sales decreased by 3.5% year - on - year to 57.044 million pieces. Except for motorcycle and scooter tires, the sales of other types of tires were lower than those in the first half of 2019 [6]. - In the first half of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 13.2% year - on - year to 2.257 million tons, and exports to China increased by 35% to 1.423 million tons [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign markets had a significant correction. On August 1, 2025, the closing prices of RU2509, NR2509, Singapore TSR20:2509, and Tokyo RSS3:2509 decreased by 8.18%, 8.60%, 8.11%, and 4.57% respectively compared with the previous period [10][11]. - The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 narrowed. The spreads of whole milk - Thai mixed decreased, while the spreads of 3L - Thai mixed increased [21][30]. - The prices of substitute rubbers such as BR and SBR decreased, and the spreads between synthetic rubbers and RU narrowed [33]. - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was at a relatively low level, and the settled funds were at a low level year - on - year. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR decreased rapidly, and the settled funds also decreased rapidly [36]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Supply - In Thailand, the temperature and rainfall in the southern region increased significantly. In China, the rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan was at a high level compared with the same period in previous years [40][42]. - The prices of raw materials decreased. The prices of Thai cup rubber, glue, smoked sheets, and raw sheets decreased, while the raw materials in Yunnan were still relatively firm due to more rainfall [44][45]. - The spread between Thai glue and cup rubber widened, and the spread of Hainan glue between concentrated latex factories and whole - milk factories first rose and then fell [53]. - The overall processing profit decreased as the decline of raw materials was smaller than that of finished products [57]. - In June 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber) increased by 2.21% month - on - month and 33.95% year - on - year. The imports of Thai mixed rubber, Vietnamese mixed rubber, and Vietnamese standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the imports of Thai standard rubber decreased significantly [61][62]. Demand - Some tire enterprises arranged maintenance at the end of the cycle, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. The finished product inventory decreased as the overall shipment of enterprises was concentrated at the end of the month [65]. - In June 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The sales of passenger cars maintained high growth, and the sales of heavy - duty trucks improved significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [69][70]. Inventory - This week, China's natural rubber inventory increased slightly, with a decrease in light - colored rubber and an increase in dark - colored rubber. There is a high possibility of inventory reduction in Qingdao next period, while there may still be a slight increase in inventory in Yunnan [72]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - Supply: The supply from the main producing areas increased this week, and raw material prices continued to fall, weakening the bottom support of rubber prices [82]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rates of semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises were 69.98% and 59.26% respectively, showing a weak demand [82]. - View: It is expected that the rubber price will continue its weak consolidation in the short - term due to the increasing supply, falling raw material prices, weak terminal demand, and the digestion and adjustment of macro - sentiment [82]. - Valuation: The basis between whole milk and RU main contract was stable, and the spread between mixed standard rubber and RU main contract narrowed [82]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to be range - bound and weak; the inter - period spread trading should shift from reverse arbitrage to positive arbitrage; for cross - variety trading, just observe for now [82].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint As of August 1, the main contract LG2509 closed at 821.5 yuan per cubic meter, down 1.4% from the previous week. The market showed a weak and volatile trend this week, with the fundamentals maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand. The monthly spreads showed differentiation this week, with the 09 - 11 spread at -5 yuan per cubic meter, the 09 - 01 spread at -8.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 11 - 01 spread at -3.5 yuan per cubic meter [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Overview - For the mainstream deliverable 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine, the Shandong market quoted 745 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from last week, while the Jiangsu market quoted 765 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 10 yuan per cubic meter from last week, with a regional price difference of -20 yuan. The 3.9 - meter 40+ radiata pine in Shandong was quoted at 850 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from last week; the 5.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong was quoted at 765 yuan per cubic meter, also unchanged from last week. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market had low trading volumes and were still in short supply [4]. Supply - As of July 27, there were a total of 40 ships departing from New Zealand in July, with 35 bound for mainland China and 5 for Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced loads. Among the ships departing in July, about 16 were expected to arrive in July and 24 in August. The expected arrival volume in July was 1.63 million cubic meters [5][8]. Demand and Inventory - As of the week ending July 25, the daily average shipment volume at Lanshan Port was 1.78 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 million cubic meters), and at Taicang Port it was 1.18 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 0.13 million cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.2558 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 0.024 million cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 0.4363 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.0785 million cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 0.4211 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.0257 million cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 0.2068 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.016 million cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.32 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.0962 million cubic meters from the previous week [6][13]. Market Trend - As of August 1, the main contract LG2509 closed at 821.5 yuan per cubic meter, down 1.4% from the previous week. The market showed a weak and volatile trend this week, with the fundamentals maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand. The monthly spreads showed differentiation this week, with the 09 - 11 spread at -5 yuan per cubic meter, the 09 - 01 spread at -8.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 11 - 01 spread at -3.5 yuan per cubic meter [17]. Other - As of the week ending August 1, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2018 points, down 239 points (-10.6%) from the previous week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 678 points, down 0.6% from the previous week; the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1550.74 points, down 2.6% from the previous week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index was oscillating at a low level. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.200, a week - on - week increase of 0.6%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate slightly increased by 2.0% to 1.69 [58][59].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2025年8月3日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 本周观点总结 01 供应 02 需求 03 库存 04 价格及价差 05 炼厂开工 全球炼厂检修 国内炼厂产量与商品量 国内外燃料油需求数据 全球燃料油现货库存 亚太区域现货FOB价格 欧洲区域现货FOB价格 美国地区燃料油现货价格 纸货与衍生品价格 燃料油现货价差 全球燃料油裂解价差 全球燃料油纸货月差 进出口 06 国内燃料油进出口数据 全球高硫燃料油进出口数据 全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 本周燃料油、低硫燃料油观点：LU、FU弱势延续 | 观点 | 本周燃料油价格先涨后跌，LU前期所表现出的强势开始有所减弱。当下，海内外燃料油市场的供应水平总体以宽松为主，中东出口8月还有 增加的趋势，同时俄罗斯的出口数量也开始慢慢恢复。在现货充盈 ...