集运指数（欧线）观点： 震荡市 观点 对于2512合约，欧线的季节性特征不容忽视，但相比去年，今年旺季12月也存在2个利空因素：①2026年春节偏晚或导致货量峰值较去年有所延后，船司出于 保长协的目的，或将年底的签约期后移到 12 月下旬；②运力过剩压力逐年加大，运价中枢相较上半年下移或是大概率事件；故2512合约不宜过分高估。预计2512合 约在1550-1800点之间宽幅震荡，我们倾向于单边观望，等待11月停航力度给出进一步指引。 对于2602合约，2026年春节较 2025 年春节晚半个月（2025年是1月28日，2026年是2月17日），历史上春节较晚的年份（如2010、2015、2018 年），02合约 不一定贴水12合约，12和02的相对估值高低暂时难以看清。 国泰君安期货研究所 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 首席分析师/能化联席行政负责人·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 日期：2025年9月28日 综述 01 | 策略 | 单边：暂无； | | --- | --- | | | 套利：中长期关注02-04 正套和 12-04 正套逢低做阔的机会。 | | | 国庆假期 ...

铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2025年09月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝：小幅反弹后再回调，依然在磨盘，节前可轻仓 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 2 ◆ 本周沪铝在铜价因印尼矿端事件引发的大涨行情带领下，略有反弹，但随后伴随铜价休整回落，铝价亦再度回调。短期 整体趋势仍在磨盘，节前可轻仓，长假期间建议关注美国非农、海外多国制造业PMI数据等对国际市场的冲击。中期趋势 性上看，我们在铝的单边价格、波动率方向、冶炼利润上，继续保持看多方向。 ◆ 当前周频跟踪的基本面微观指标来看，整体依然不差。SMM华东现货贴水转平水，不过华南现货贴水有所扩大。截至9月 25日，铝锭社会库存较前周去库2.2万吨至61.4万吨，周四出现去库，在国庆累库过后可观察是否已形成去库拐点的确认。 下游方面，截至9月26日铝板带箔周度总产量已经连续第6周环比增加，年初迄 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The overall view of US soybeans is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the probability of a sharp decline is small due to cost support. The market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, ranging from 950 to 1150 cents per bushel [5]. Summary by Directory Market Price - China continues to be absent from the US soybean export market, and Argentina's tax - free policy stimulates agricultural exports, squeezing US soybean exports. The US soybean price oscillated and closed lower this week [8][10]. - The US soybean meal price declined this week because Argentina's tax - free policy led global buyers to increase purchases of Argentine agricultural products, putting pressure on US soybean meal exports [11][12]. - The US soybean oil price oscillated lower this week as Argentina's soybean oil exports increased significantly due to the tax - free policy, causing export pressure on US soybean oil [15]. - As of the week ending September 19, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports was $10.83 per bushel, and the purchase price at farms (Iowa) was $9.51 per bushel, slightly down. As of September 26, the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa was $9.5375 per bushel [17][19][21]. - On September 26, the spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso, Brazil, slightly decreased to 116.07 reais per bag, and the spot price at Brazilian ports slightly decreased to 134.88 reais per bag [23][25]. Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas has improved slightly, with a drought rate of 56% this week compared to 58% last week [28]. - In the next two weeks, the temperature in US soybean - producing areas will be relatively warm, with no threat of early frost, and precipitation will be relatively low, which is conducive to crop harvesting [30][32]. - In Brazil, most of the producing areas have slightly less precipitation, the southern region is relatively humid, the sowing in Paraná state is progressing quickly, but the progress in the central - western regions such as Mato Grosso is slow [35]. - Precipitation in Argentina's soybean - producing areas is normal to high, and the sowing work is expected to start in October [37]. - As of the week ending September 9, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 61%, compared with 63% last week and 64% in the same period last year [39]. Demand Factors - As of September 19, the US soybean crushing profit was $3.22 per bushel, up from $3.14 last week [42]. - The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 512,300 tons, down from 837,100 tons last week; the weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 484,100 tons, down from 804,300 tons last week [45][47]. - The net sales of US soybeans this year were 724,400 tons, down from 923,000 tons last week; the sales of US soybeans for the next year were 0 tons, down from 220,000 tons last week [49][51]. - The quantity of US soybeans shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [53]. Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 1.068, indicating that it has entered the La Nina range [56]. - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [58][60]. - As of September 23, the net short position of soybeans in CFTC was 18,200 lots, compared with 14,400 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 8,040 lots, down from 35,000 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 82,700 lots, compared with 59,400 lots last week [64][66][68].

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 09 月 28 日 豆粕：震荡，规避国庆长假风险 豆一：新豆上市，市场预期政策支持 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周（09.22-09.26），美豆期价偏弱运行，主要因为阿根廷免税事件扰动、中美贸易摩擦忧虑（中 方尚未开启美豆采购）。从周 K 线角度，9 月 26 日当周，美豆主力 11 月合约周跌幅 1.17%，美豆粕主力 12 月合约周跌幅 3.27%。 上周（09.22-09.26），国内豆粕期价偏弱，豆一期价偏强。豆粕方面，主要因为阿根廷出口免税政 策扰动、"缺货"担忧缓解。豆一方面，主要因为政策支持预期。从周 K 线角度，9 月 26 日当周，豆粕主 力 m2601 合约周跌幅 2.55%，豆一主力 a2511 合约周涨幅 0.79%。（上述期货价格及涨跌幅数据引自文华 财经） 上周（09.22-09.26），国际大豆市场主要基本面情况：1）美豆净销售周环比下降、符合预期，影响 中性偏空。据 USDA 出口销售报告，9 月 18 日当周，装船方面，2025/26 年美豆出口装船约 51 万吨 ...

Report Overview - **Title**: Glass and Soda Ash Weekly Report - **Date**: September 28, 2025 - **Author**: Zhang Chi from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Short - term oscillatory market, with a weakening bias in the short - term for single - side trading [2] - Soda Ash: Medium - term oscillatory market [3] 2. Report's Core Views Glass - Short - term, it's an oscillatory market. The market was affected by the denial of production cuts by other industry associations and the approach of the National Day holiday, with weakening support on the futures market. In the medium - term, the high premium of the 01 contract restricts market rise, but the seasonal improvement in the real estate market in the fourth quarter justifies a certain premium. Policy support for anti - involution and anti - deflation should be noted [2]. Soda Ash - It is a medium - term oscillatory market. The high production and high inventory situation persists. Either large - scale production cuts in soda ash or continuous improvement in the glass market can drive a positive feedback. Attention should be paid to the actual improvement in the glass industry and the implementation of anti - involution measures in soda ash [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Supply - There were no water - releasing, ignition, or plate - guiding production lines for float glass during the week, with stable weekly production. As of September 25, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (200,000 tons per day) after excluding zombie lines, including 225 in production and 71 on cold - repair shutdown. The daily output of national float glass was 160,200 tons, the same as on the 18th [2]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired production lines is 11,680 tons per day; the total daily melting volume of ignited production lines is 13,210 tons per day; the total daily melting volume of potentially new - ignited production lines is 14,790 tons per day; the total daily melting volume of potentially复产 production lines is 10,730 tons; and the total daily melting volume of potentially cold - repaired production lines is 8,100 tons per day [6][7][8][9][11]. - Short - term production reduction space is limited, and capacity is expected to change little in the fourth quarter. The current in - production capacity is about 160,000 tons per day, with a peak of 178,000 tons per day in 2021 [13][14]. Demand - As of September 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.5 days, a 1.0% month - on - month increase and a 2.9% year - on - year increase. Most deep - processing orders in major regions across the country have not improved significantly in September, with most orders being scattered, and the overall profit remaining low [2]. Inventory - As of September 25, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million heavy boxes, a 1.553 - million - heavy - box (2.55%) month - on - month decrease and an 18.56% year - on - year decrease. The inventory days were 25.4 days, 0.6 days less than the previous period. Inventories in North China, Central China, and East China generally decreased [2]. Price and Profit - Transactions were stable, with prices rising by 40 - 80 yuan per ton this week. The price in Shahe was around 1,210 - 1,270 yuan per ton; in Hubei, Central China, it was around 1,180 - 1,240 yuan per ton; and in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, East China, it was around 1,320 - 1,400 yuan per ton. The spot price changed little recently, with the basis and the spread between months strengthening. The profit for petroleum coke was about 61 yuan per ton, and the profits for natural gas and coal fuels were about - 151 and 95 yuan per ton respectively [17][21][26]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - The domestic photovoltaic glass market had good overall transactions, with prices oscillating strongly. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels was about 13 yuan per square meter, flat month - on - month; and the mainstream order price of 3.2mm coated panels was about 20 yuan per square meter, also flat month - on - month [46][48]. Capacity and Inventory - There were little recent changes in capacity, with improved trading and declining inventory. There were 408 in - production photovoltaic glass production lines nationwide, with a total daily melting volume of 89,290 tons per day, flat month - on - month and a 14.28% year - on - year decrease. The sample inventory days were about 14.65 days, a 2.50% month - on - month decrease [50][51][55]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - The production facilities of soda ash enterprises were generally stable with minor adjustments, and the supply increased. This week, the domestic soda ash production was 776,900 tons, a 31,200 - ton (4.19%) week - on - week increase. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 89.12%, a 3.59% week - on - week increase. The current weekly output of heavy soda ash reached 430,000 tons per week [3][62]. Inventory - The inventory of soda ash enterprises was about 1.652 million tons, including 730,000 tons of light soda ash and 922,000 tons of heavy soda ash [64][65]. Price and Profit - The market price changed little. The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei were around 1,210 - 1,400 yuan per ton. The basis and the spread between months showed that the near - month contracts were under pressure due to high production and high inventory. The profit for the joint - alkali process in East China (excluding Shandong) was - 77 yuan per ton, and the profit for the ammonia - alkali process in North China was - 37 yuan per ton [74][75][80].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Guotai Junan Futures Research Weekly Report - Agricultural Products dated September 28, 2025, covering multiple agricultural product futures including palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, soybean, corn, sugar, cotton, and live pigs [1][2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views Palm Oil - The supply - driven price increase is difficult to continue. The European demand support may not end soon, but the demand side is hard to provide further stimulation. The combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia may accumulate until October and then slowly decline. There may be hidden inventories in Indonesia until the end of the year, and the price may fluctuate until the end of the year [6][8] Soybean Oil - The policy of US soybean oil may be postponed to next year. Before the policy is implemented, it will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 56 cents/pound. Domestic soybean oil has no independent driving force and will mainly follow the trend of the oil and fat sector [9] Soybean Meal and Soybean - It is expected that the prices of soybean meal and soybean futures will fluctuate. It is necessary to avoid risks during the National Day holiday. For soybean meal, pay attention to trade events and fundamental data; for soybean, the market expects policy support [20][25] Corn - The corn market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The price may rebound in the short term but is expected to decline after the National Day. It is advisable to short at high prices [33][37] Sugar - The sugar market has a weak basis. Internationally, it will mainly be in low - level consolidation; domestically, the basis is bearish [59][61] Cotton - It is expected that the cost of new cotton will continue to dominate the futures price trend. Before the National Day, the Zhengzhou cotton futures will maintain a weak and volatile trend, and after the holiday, it will be mainly determined by the new cotton cost [86][102] Group 4: Summary by Commodity Palm Oil - **Last Week**: After Argentina announced zero - tariff exports of oil and meal, the palm oil 01 contract fell 1.11% last week [5] - **This Week**: European demand support continues, but the demand side lacks stimulation. The combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia may accumulate until October. The price may fluctuate until the end of the year [6][8] Soybean Oil - **Last Week**: After Argentina announced zero - tariff exports of oil and meal, the soybean oil 01 contract fell 2.09% last week [5] - **This Week**: The policy of US soybean oil may be postponed. Before the policy is implemented, it will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 56 cents/pound. Domestic soybean oil has no independent driving force [9] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Last Week**: The price of US soybeans was weak. The domestic soybean meal price was weak, and the soybean price was strong. The net sales of US soybeans decreased week - on - week, and the excellent - good rate decreased [20] - **This Week**: It is expected that the prices of soybean meal and soybean futures will fluctuate. For soybean meal, avoid trade event risks; for soybean, the market expects policy support [25] Corn - **Market Review**: The spot price of corn rebounded last week. The futures price first fell and then rose. The basis remained flat [33][34] - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn fell, wheat prices rose, corn starch inventory decreased. The price may rebound in the short term but is expected to decline after the National Day [34][37] Sugar - **This Week's Market Review**: Internationally, the price of New York raw sugar rose, and the net long position of funds decreased significantly. Domestically, the spot price of sugar in Guangxi decreased, and the basis of the main contract decreased significantly [59][60] - **Next Week's Market Outlook**: Internationally, it will be in low - level consolidation; domestically, the basis is bearish [61] Cotton - **Market Data**: ICE cotton was weak, and domestic cotton futures continued to decline [86][89] - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the export sales data of US cotton was poor, and the situation in other countries varied. Domestically, the new cotton was expected to be abundant, and the cost was uncertain. The downstream situation was average [90][97] - **Operation Suggestion**: ICE cotton may maintain low - level consolidation. Before the National Day, Zhengzhou cotton futures will be weakly volatile, and after the holiday, the price will be mainly determined by the new cotton cost [102]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc supply pressure persists, and the inflection point of inventory reduction remains to be confirmed, with a neutral - weak strength analysis [2][5] - The Fed's interest - rate cut has been finalized, and the market focus has returned to fundamentals. The domestic supply - demand imbalance is prominent, and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic zinc prices is more obvious. There is a chance for the export window to open in the fourth quarter. During the period of strong domestic supply and weak demand, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker, and short - to medium - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions can be cautiously held [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price**: Last week, the closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 21,980 yuan, with a weekly decline of 0.29%; the closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 2,886.5 dollars, with a weekly decline of 0.41%. The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract in the night session was 21,705 yuan, with a decline of 1.25% [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 126,716 lots, an increase of 49,318 lots compared with the previous week; the open interest was 126,086 lots, an increase of 64,242 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 8,163 lots, a decrease of 1,704 lots; the open interest was 219,399 lots, an increase of 2,338 lots [6] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 5,042 tons to 57,573 tons; SHFE zinc total inventory increased by 1,229 tons to 100,544 tons; social inventory decreased by 8,100 tons to 150,400 tons; LME zinc inventory decreased by 5,050 tons to 42,775 tons; bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 8,000 tons [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison 3.2.1 Inventory - Zinc ore and smelter finished - product inventories have risen to high levels, while zinc ingot visible inventories have declined [9] 3.2.2 Profit - Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a historical median level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short term, smelting profits have declined, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable at a medium - to - low level in the same period [11][12] 3.2.3 Operating Rate - The zinc smelting operating rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream operating rate is at a historically low level. Zinc concentrate operating rate has declined, refined zinc operating rate has increased, and downstream galvanizing, die - casting zinc, and zinc oxide operating rates are generally at a low level [13][14] 3.3 Trading Aspects 3.3.1 Spot - Spot prices are continuously at a discount. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [17][20] 3.3.2 Spread - SHFE zinc shows a C - structure [22] 3.3.3 Inventory - Inventory reduction has occurred, but the inflection point remains to be confirmed, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a short - term slight decline and at a historical low in the same period. CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory. Bonded - area inventory is stable, and the total global zinc visible inventory has declined slightly [28][34][37] 3.3.4 Futures - The domestic open interest is at a historical median level in the same period [38] 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports have rebounded significantly, domestic zinc ore production is at a historical median level, import ore processing fees continue to rise, and domestic ore processing fees have decreased. Ore arrival volume is at a median level, and smelter raw - material inventory is abundant, at a historical high in the same period [41][42] 3.4.2 Refined Zinc - Smelting output has increased and is at a historical high in the same period. Smelter finished - product inventory has increased and is at a historical high in the same period. Zinc alloy output is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a historical median level [49][51] 3.4.3 Recycled Zinc Raw Materials - No significant summary information provided 3.5 Zinc Demand - Refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive. The downstream monthly operating rate has declined slightly and is mostly at a medium - to - low level in the same period. The real - estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [61][63][75] 3.6 Overseas Factors - No significant summary information provided regarding the impact on the zinc market, only data on natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices are presented [76]

国泰君安期货·有色及贵金属 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所·有色及贵金属团队 王 蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 王宗源 （联系人）从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 01 02 03 05 06 04 铜：原料供应扰动增强，具备长期多配价值 铝：小幅反弹后再回调，依然在磨盘，节前可轻仓;氧化铝：重心继续下移，关注下方 空间 铸造铝合金：短期磨盘，关注四季度汽车冲量 铅：假期前企业补库，社会库存下降支撑价格 锡：矛盾并不突出，关注内外反套策略 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 2 07 铜产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年09月28日 2025年09月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all ...

2025年09月28日 国泰君安期货研究周报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：纯镍累库与矿端矛盾博弈，中期波动率或增加 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 2 | | 工业硅：情绪明显降温，关注盘面下行驱动 | 11 | | 多晶硅：上游库存累库，关注政策落地节点 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：进口矿放量，碳酸锂去库放缓，区间震荡 | 20 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 9 月 28 日 镍：纯镍累库与矿端矛盾博弈，中期波动率或增加 不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 沪镍基本面：印尼镍矿矛盾频出增加市场担忧，精炼镍陡峭累库与弱预期共振压制。印尼消息面或明 显削弱空方信心，增加空头风险：其一，因违反印尼林业许可证规定，Weda Bay Nickel 超过 148 公顷 的矿区被接管（总面积 47000 公顷），约占其总矿区面积的 0.3%，影 ...

铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2025年09月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝：小幅反弹后再回调，依然在磨盘，节前可轻仓 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 2 ◆ 本周沪铝在铜价因印尼矿端事件引发的大涨行情带领下，略有反弹，但随后伴随铜价休整回落，铝价亦再度回调。短期 整体趋势仍在磨盘，节前可轻仓，长假期间建议关注美国非农、海外多国制造业PMI数据等对国际市场的冲击。中期趋势 性上看，我们在铝的单边价格、波动率方向、冶炼利润上，继续保持看多方向。 ◆ 当前周频跟踪的基本面微观指标来看，整体依然不差。SMM华东现货贴水转平水，不过华南现货贴水有所扩大。截至9月 25日，铝锭社会库存较前周去库2.2万吨至61.4万吨，周四出现去库，在国庆累库过后可观察是否已形成去库拐点的确认。 下游方面，截至9月26日铝板带箔周度总产量已经连续第6周环比增加，年初迄 ...