| | | | Million | 国投前货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月04日 | | 棉花, | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ななな | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | 女女女 | | | 20号胶 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，棉花现货交投大多冷清：基差总体持稳，纯棉纱成交依旧偏清淡，下游需求仍旧不足，市场交投不佳,纯 棉纱纺企库存继续累积，诚停产增多。截至6月15号，棉花商业库存为312.69万吨，较5月底减少33.18万吨，消化仍然良好，棉 花库存仍存偏紧预期。宏观上，美国和越南达成贸易协议，美国将对进口越南商品 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The steel market is influenced by supply - side reform expectations, with short - term fluctuations. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and policy changes [2]. - The iron ore market is expected to follow the trend of finished products, showing a relatively strong oscillation in the short term [3]. - The coke and coking coal markets face upward pressure on the futures due to inventory, and the "anti - involution" has limited impact currently [4][6]. - The silicomanganese market has limited fundamental improvement, with pressure at the 6750 level [7]. - The ferrosilicon market has a general driving force for continuous price rebound [8]. Summary by Commodity Steel - Today's steel futures rose first and then fell. Thread demand recovered, production increased, and inventory decreased slowly. Hot - rolled coil demand declined slightly, production remained high, and inventory accumulated slightly. Iron - making water production decreased but remained high. Concerns about negative feedback eased. The infrastructure recovery lacked sustainability, real - estate sales remained low, and the manufacturing industry had resilience. The supply - side reform expectations dominated the market, but substantial measures were yet to be implemented [2]. Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures oscillated, and the basis narrowed to a low level. Global iron ore shipments ended the end - of - season rush, with a downward expectation. Domestic arrivals remained high, and port inventory was basically flat. Terminal demand in the off - season was resilient, steel mill profitability was okay, and iron - making water production declined from a high level. Supply - side contraction expectations strengthened, and market sentiment improved. The iron ore fundamentals had limited contradictions, and it was expected to follow the finished products with a relatively strong oscillation [3]. Coke - Coke prices rose today. Coking plants had price - increase expectations, with meager profits, and daily production declined. Coke inventory decreased, and traders' purchasing willingness improved slightly. The carbon supply was abundant, and the impact of "anti - involution" was limited. The futures had a four - round premium, and there was upward pressure due to inventory [4]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose today. Coking coal mine production increased, spot auction improved, and terminal inventory rose. Total coking coal inventory decreased, and production - end inventory decreased significantly. The carbon supply was abundant, and the impact of "anti - involution" was limited. The futures had a premium, and there was upward pressure due to inventory [6]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices oscillated downward today. Due to previous production cuts, inventory decreased, but weekly production increased, and on - balance - sheet inventory increased. Manganese ore inventory was expected to increase in the medium - to - long - term, and the current inventory was low, with stronger price - holding intentions of mines. The spot resources of Comilog oxidized ore were scarce, and the August 2025 shipment price to China decreased slightly. With the "anti - involution" expectation in steel, silicomanganese followed the upward trend of thread, but its fundamentals improved limitedly, with pressure at the 6750 level [7]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated downward today. Iron - making water production decreased slightly but remained above 240. Export demand was about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. Metal magnesium production increased, and secondary demand remained high. Ferrosilicon supply decreased, market transactions were average, on - balance - sheet inventory decreased, but production - end inventory increased. Some producers may use a trading model to help with inventory reduction. With the "anti - involution" expectation in steel, ferrosilicon followed the upward trend of thread, but the driving force for continuous price rebound was general [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Staple Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The short - term market trends of various chemical products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and policy news, showing different trends of narrow - range fluctuations, shock - strengthening, or high - pressure [2][3][4] - The long - term trends of some products are under pressure due to factors like supply increase and demand decline [8] Summary by Product Methanol - The methanol market is in a continuous shock adjustment, with the East China basis dropping significantly and port inventory accumulation expectations being gradually realized [2] - Domestic device operation rate is down, and the operation rates of traditional downstream industries in the inland are also decreasing, with production enterprises slightly increasing inventory [2] - The short - term market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and attention should be paid to Iranian shipments and the operation of coastal olefin devices [2] Urea - The urea futures price first rose and then fell during the day, mainly driven by market rumors of the release of the second batch of export quotas [3] - After precipitation in the mainstream areas, downstream procurement was concentrated, and production enterprise inventory decreased. After the port inspection was relaxed, the port inventory increased significantly [3] - In the short term, the market is expected to be strong with fluctuations, but in the later period, as agricultural demand enters the off - season and supply remains sufficient, new policy guidance is awaited [3] Polyolefins - The polyolefin futures main contract continued to be narrowly sorted during the day, lacking short - term directional guidance [4] - The supply of polyethylene increased, while demand support was limited. The operation rate of the polypropylene device decreased, and downstream orders were insufficient, with the overall operation rate declining [4] Styrene - The styrene futures main contract rose slightly during the day, maintaining a sideways trend [6] - The cost - side support is insufficient, and there is obvious supply pressure. Downstream demand is weak and stable, with a possibility of a slight decrease [6] Polyester - The prices of PX and PTA fluctuated and declined, and the industrial supply - demand pattern changed from tight to loose, with processing margins, basis, and spreads under pressure [7] - The import of ethylene glycol is uncertain, and it is expected to maintain a bottom - range shock trend [7] - The prices of staple fiber and bottle chips followed the decline of raw materials. The operation rate of staple fiber increased, but downstream demand decreased. The bottle chip industry reduced production, and the spot processing margin was repaired [7] Chlor - Alkali - PVC is in a shock operation. There is an expected increase in supply in the future, while domestic demand is weak, and export orders may decline. In the long term, the futures price may be in a low - level shock [8] - Caustic soda is trending strongly. In the short term, it is driven by cost, but in the long term, it is under pressure due to supply increase [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices declined during the day. Although the sales in some areas improved and inventory decreased, processing orders were weak, and there is limited room for price increase [9] - Soda ash continued to accumulate inventory, and the futures price was weak. With reduced demand and short - term supply contraction, it is difficult for the price to rise significantly [9]

| Million | 国投期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月04日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | 女女女 | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜金弱银强略有分化。美国公布6月季调后非农就业人口录得14.7万人好于普遍预期，失业率下降0.1个百 分点至4.1%,就业市场保持韧性令美联储9月降息预期有所降温,报告公布后利率期货交易员放弃了对7月美 联储降息的押注,对九月份美联储降息的概率约为80%,低于非农就业报告公布前的98%。短期贵金属延续震 荡，关注美国关税重要节点政策变动对市场情绪的影响。美国总统特朗普称将于周五开始向贸易伙伴发送关 税通知函单方面设定关税税率,相关国家须从8月1日起支付税款,关税税率将在10%-20%到60%-70%之间浮 动。" ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为 ...

| | 操作评级 | 2025年07月04日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | な女女 | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | ななな | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 氧化铝 | なな女 | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 锌 | ★☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 镇及不锈钢 立☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 锡 | な女女 | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 工业硅 | ななな | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 多晶硅 | 女女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周五沪铜城仓收阴,交割月合约持仓减至7万手以下。今日现铜报80535元,上海铜延续115元升水,广东铜升水 缩至25元。隔夜美国6月非农就业及失业率好于预期，调降7月联储降息概率。技术上，周内沪铜涨势测试8 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From 2020 - 2024, both the total supply and total demand of the asphalt market showed negative growth trends, with compound growth rates of -6% and -4.5% respectively. In 2024, the market was in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a total demand decline of 11.2% and a total supply decline of 15%. The price showed a "tail - up" trend at the end of the year due to factors such as inventory reduction. Looking forward to 2025, the asphalt supply and demand are still likely to be in a negative growth trend, but there may be a phased increase. The consumption has room for growth, and the price is expected to rise in the second half of the year [1][4][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Asphalt Market Supply - Demand Balance Analysis - **2020 - 2024 Overall Situation**: The asphalt production capacity peaked in 2023. The total supply and total demand had compound growth rates of -6% and -4.5% respectively. The production capacity decreased from 8090 million tons in 2023 to 7870 million tons in 2024, a -2.7% decline; the production decreased from 3207 million tons in 2023 to 2638 million tons in 2024, a -17.7% decline; the total supply decreased from 3510 million tons in 2023 to 2984 million tons in 2024, a -15% decline; the total demand decreased from 3462 million tons in 2023 to 3069 million tons in 2024, an -11.4% decline [1][2][5]. - **2024 Situation**: In 2024, the asphalt market was in a weak supply - demand situation. The total demand decreased by 11.2%, and the total supply decreased by 15%. The futures price fluctuated narrowly from January to July, then fell unilaterally in August, and showed a "tail - up" trend at the end of the year. The monthly supply - demand balance showed that the supply - demand gap turned negative from June, and the commercial inventory decreased rapidly during the traditional construction season from September to November [4]. 3.2 Analysis of Asphalt Price Fluctuation Characteristics and Reasons - **2020 - 2024 Price Trend**: The domestic asphalt price first rose and then fell, showing the characteristics of "not prosperous in the peak season and not dull in the off - season". The average price low was 2077 yuan/ton in March 2020, and the high was 4712 yuan/ton in June 2022. The price fluctuations were divided into five stages, mainly affected by factors such as oil prices, costs, supply, and demand [10]. - **2024 Price Situation**: In 2024, due to factors such as high local debts in some provinces and tight terminal funds, the demand reached a new low. The national average asphalt price ranged from 3553 to 3803 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 6.8%. The annual high was in early May, and the low was in October. The annual central price was 3675 yuan/ton, a 5.2% decline compared to 2023 [12]. 3.3 Outlook on Asphalt Market Supply - Demand and Market Conditions - **Supply Situation**: From 2020 - 2024, the asphalt industry profit was in a long - term bear market, and the supply decreased year by year. The capacity utilization rate decreased from 47.7% in 2020 to 33.5% in 2024, a 14.2% decline. In 2024, the domestic asphalt processing profit reached a five - year low, and the production also reached a five - year low. In the first half of 2025, the profit was repaired, and the production increased by 5.0% year - on - year [17]. - **Demand Situation**: From 2020 - 2024, the asphalt consumption had a five - year compound growth rate of -4.4%. The demand was mainly concentrated in road construction and maintenance and waterproofing. The new road construction in the "14th Five - Year Plan" decreased, and the real - estate prosperity index was at a low level, resulting in a weakening of asphalt demand [17]. - **2025 Forecast**: It is expected that the production increase space in 2025 is limited, while the consumption has room for growth. The monthly consumption has been above 280 million tons since July, and there will be a concentrated demand release from September to November. The price is expected to rise in the second half of the year, with the peak reaching over 3900 yuan/ton from October to November [19].

| 《八八 国投期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月04日 | | 原油 | な女女 | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 OPEC+开启快速增产路径叠加能源转型背景下的石油需求降速，原油市场中期供需宽松、库存累积的压力依然存 在；但三季度旺季宏观及地缘因素存在阶段性利多支撑，7月9日对等关税豁免到期大限临近，最终博弈结果参 考美越贸易协议或弱于4月2日最初版本,伊核问题相关的中东地缘风险亦未彻底消除,我们预估油价运行区间 或较二季度抬升,布伦特以63-70美元/桶为主、INE SC以480-510元/桶为主。 【燃料油&低 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn (原油) 隔夜国际油价震荡，布伦特09合约跌0.43%。周三宏观与地缘方面的利多支撑未能延续，6月非农就 业的超预期表现弱化美联储降息预期,在美越贸易协议之后,临近7月9日豁免到期大限美国与其他 大多数国家的贸易协议悬而未决；伊核争端也有重回谈判与制裁博弈模式的迹象，中东军事冲突风 险短期可控。原油供需面宽松主题延续,上周全球石油库存进一步累增,旺季因素亦难扭转 OPEC+快速增产预期之下的累库趋势。原油供需指引仍偏负面,关注宏观及地缘因素摇摆风险。 (责金属) 隔夜美国公布6月季调后非农就业人口录得14.7万人好于普遍预期，失业率下降0.1个百分点至 4.1%、就业市场保持韧性令美联储9月降息预期有所降温，金价有所回落。短期贵金属延续震荡， 关注美国关税重要节点政策变动对市场情绪的影响。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜高位震荡收跌，6月非农就业及失业率好于预期，调降7月联储降息概率，美元指数走强。 国内现铜昨报80980元,注意2507合约减仓节奏。技术上,周内沪铜涨势测试8.1万。中长期趋势交 易仍建议关注高位空配。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝高位震荡。昨日各地区现货转向 ...

| Million | > 國技期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月03日 | | 尿素 | 女女女 | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | ななな | 聚丙烯 | ☆☆☆ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 塑料 | ななな | PVC | ☆☆☆ | | | 烧碱 | なな☆ | PX | ☆☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PTA | 女女女 | 乙二醇 | な女女 | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 短纤 | なな女 | 玻璃 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 纯碱 | 女女女 | 瓶片 | 女女女 | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【甲醇) 主流区域降水过后尿素下游采购较为集中,叠加日产小幅下降,周期内生产企业 ...

Group 1: Global Propylene Supply Pattern - The global propylene production is concentrated in Northeast Asia, North America, and Western Europe. Northeast Asia is the largest production region, with a 48.1% share of the world's total capacity in 2024, and China accounts for 39.4%. North America and Northeast Asia together account for 65.6% of the global capacity. Western Europe has a 9% share, and has been a net importer since 2021. The Middle East and Southeast Asia also have propylene production, with shares of 7.4% and 6.5% respectively [1]. - The global propylene production capacity had a compound growth rate of 5.9% from 2020 - 2024. Over 14 million tons/year of new capacity is planned from 2025 - 2027, and the capacity is expected to reach 196 million tons by 2030, with major increments in Northeast Asia, North America, and Southeast Asia [1]. Group 2: Global Major Propylene Producers Head - enterprises - Sinopec has a propylene capacity of about 13 million tons/year, accounting for 7.6% of the global total, ranking first globally. It uses mainly naphtha cracking (60%) and is accelerating the layout of PDH. Over 2 million tons/year of new PDH capacity was added in 2024. More than 50% of its propylene is consumed domestically, and it exports through Southeast Asia [4]. - PetroChina has a total propylene capacity of about 6.76 million tons/year as of 2024, accounting for 4.0% of the global total, ranking second. About 85% of its capacity comes from naphtha cracking. Its future competitiveness depends on high - end product R & D, PDH technology penetration, and low - carbon transformation [4]. - LyondellBasell has a capacity of about 5 million tons/year, ranking third globally. It has production bases in North America, Rotterdam in Europe, and Singapore in Asia. It is the world's largest polypropylene producer, and its propylene is mainly used for high - end derivatives with 15% - 20% higher added value [5]. - Saudi Aramco has a capacity of about 4.8 million tons/year, ranking fourth. It has a core device in the Jubail Petrochemical Park. It exports products, accounting for 12% of the global propylene exports, and plans to expand the Zhejiang Petrochemical project with Rongsheng Petrochemical in 2026, adding 1 million tons/year of propylene capacity [5]. Regional leaders - INEOS has a capacity of about 3.8 million tons/year, being the largest propylene producer in Europe. It uses mainly steam cracking (70%) and supplies the European automotive and packaging industries, and also radiates the North American market [6]. - BASF has a capacity of about 3 million tons/year, ranking fifth globally. It投产 the first bio - based propylene plant in Europe in 2024, aiming for a 15% bio - based raw material share by 2030 [6]. - ExxonMobil has a capacity of about 2.8 million tons/year, ranking sixth globally, with production bases in the US, Singapore, and China [6]. Emerging Asian forces - Zhongjing Petrochemical has a capacity of 2.8 million tons/year, being the world's largest single - plant propylene producer. It uses all PDH processes and targets over 30% market share in the domestic PP powder market and exports to Vietnam and Indonesia [8]. - Wanhua Chemical has a capacity of about 1.8 million tons/year, ranking among the top ten globally. Its propylene is mainly used for high - end products such as POE and MDI [8]. Group 3: China's Propylene Capacity Development Structural over - supply and slowing growth - China's propylene capacity had a compound growth rate of 14.34% from 2020 - 2024, adding 29.12 million tons. From 2025 - 2030, the planned new capacity is 22.15 million tons/year, with a compound growth rate of 5.29%, showing a significant slowdown [9]. Increasing industry concentration - In 2024, there were 189 propylene producers in China, with 13 enterprises having an annual capacity of over 1 million tons, accounting for 6.88%. The CR10 enterprise capacity accounted for 22.77%. In the next 5 years, the industry will continue to develop in a diversified, integrated, and large - scale manner [11]. Process route competition and regional development - China has diverse propylene production processes, including naphtha cracking, propane dehydrogenation (PDH), methanol - to - olefins, and catalytic cracking. PDH has developed rapidly and impacted the market share of naphtha cracking. PDH capacity is mainly distributed in coastal areas [13]. - From 2020 - 2024, East China's propylene capacity increased by 8.56 million tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of 14%. Shandong's capacity increased by 7.81 million tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of 21% [15]. Declining import dependence and commodification rate - China's propylene import dependence has declined from 14.1% in 2014 to 3.3% in 2024 and is expected to further decrease. The commodification rate is also expected to decline to 13.3% in 2025, with the commodity volume expected to drop to 7.9 million tons [17].