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Report Industry Investment Ratings - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polyolefins: Not provided - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polyester: Not provided - Chlor - alkali: PVC (☆☆☆), Caustic Soda (☆☆☆) [1] - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass (☆☆☆), Soda Ash (☆☆☆) [1] Core Views - The chemical market shows a mixed trend with different products having various price and market outlooks based on supply - demand dynamics, seasonal factors, and policy influences [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Methanol - The methanol market is in a low - level adjustment. Domestic device operation is down, and traditional downstream operations in the mainland are also decreased, with production enterprises slightly increasing inventory. In Jiangsu and Zhejiang, MTO device operation is continuously decreasing slightly, import demand is weak, and port inventory is slightly increasing. The market is expected to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to macro - aspects and Iranian shipping [2] Urea - Urea daily production has decreased significantly month - on - month but remains high year - on - year. Rainy weather has increased agricultural fertilizer demand, and it is the peak season for summer fertilizer use, leading to a decrease in production enterprise inventory. After port inspections were relaxed, port inventory has been increasing significantly. The short - term market is expected to be slightly strong, but demand will enter the off - season later [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures are hovering around the 5 - day moving average. Polyethylene supply is increasing as maintenance losses decline, and demand has limited changes. The polypropylene supply is also expected to increase slightly, and overall downstream demand is weak [4] Styrene - Styrene futures are in a narrow - range movement. The cost support is insufficient due to weak supply - demand in the traditional benzene segment and no effective inventory reduction at ports. Supply pressure is obvious, and downstream demand is weak and stable [5] Polyester - PX and PTA prices are oscillating narrowly. The industry supply - demand pattern is loosening. PTA processing spreads, basis, and monthly spreads are under pressure. Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at the bottom. Short - fiber downstream load is decreasing, and bottle - chip enterprises are reducing production. Attention should be paid to inventory [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC is oscillating. There is an expected increase in supply in July. Domestic demand is weak, and exports are showing signs of weakening. Caustic soda is strong in the short - term due to cost drivers, but faces supply pressure in the long - term [7] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices are down. High inventory and weak demand continue, and there is limited potential for price increases. Soda ash inventory is increasing, and the futures price is weak. Supply is expected to oscillate at a high level, and demand is decreasing [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock index: ☆☆☆ [1] - Treasury bonds: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - As of the week ending July 4, the stock index continued to rise, with the steel sector leading the gains and the computer sector leading the losses. The margin trading balance increased by 18.928 billion yuan. The stock market is currently supported by loose liquidity and risk appetite, and the overall trading volume continues to recover. Attention should be paid to the change in the US dollar trend, as the stock index may face correction pressure [1]. - From the high - frequency macro - fundamental factor scores, for stock index futures, the inflation indicator scored 7 points, the liquidity indicator scored 5 points, the valuation indicator scored 11 points, and the market sentiment indicator scored 8 points. For bond futures, the inflation indicator scored 8 points, the liquidity indicator scored 10 points, and the market sentiment indicator scored 8 points. In terms of the term structure, the basis in July gradually converged but remained at a relatively high level and was still affected by the dividend season, with the convergence of the discount being slow [1]. - The net value of the financial derivatives quantitative CTA strategy increased by 0.85% last week, mainly due to going long on T on Wednesday and intraday long on IC on Friday. In the long - term, both the Caixin and official PMIs improved marginally, which significantly boosted IC and IM, while T declined to some extent. In the short - term, as the US dollar oscillated downward, the pressure on spreads and exchange rates decreased, and the liquidity supported both stocks and bonds, with its influence weight continuously increasing [1]. - In terms of open interest, the overall market risk appetite first rose and then fell. The signal strength of IC and IM remained high, while that of IF and IH decreased slightly compared to last week. The comprehensive signal was neutral and oscillating. For bond futures, the liquidity at the beginning of the month was still relatively loose, and the open interest factor showed a sign of marginal weakening after recovery, indicating that institutions were still waiting for the right time to allocate after adjustment. The comprehensive signal was also neutral and oscillating [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - fundamental High - frequency Factor Scores 3.1.1 Economic Momentum - The blast furnace operating rate increased by 1.80% to 44.97, with a historical quantile of 0.34, an index moving correlation of - 0.06, and a treasury bond moving correlation of - 0.88. The PTA operating rate in China increased by 1.80% to 79.13, with a historical quantile of 0.34, an index moving correlation of 0.01, and a treasury bond moving correlation of - 0.53. The refinery operating rate in Shandong decreased by 2.32% to 44.97, with a historical quantile of 0.01, an index moving correlation of - 0.56, and a treasury bond moving correlation of - 0.34. The operating rate of all - steel tires increased by 1.05% to 63.75, with a historical quantile of 0.43, an index moving correlation of 0.15, and a treasury bond moving correlation of - 0.52. The operating rate of downstream looms for polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions decreased by 6.98% to 58.09, with a historical quantile of 0.57, an index moving correlation of - 0.44, and a treasury bond moving correlation of 0.81. The stock index futures score was 7, and the bond futures score was 0 [2]. 3.1.2 Inflation Indicators - Multiple inflation - related indicators such as the vegetable basket product wholesale price index, the coking coal index, and the price of electrolytic copper showed varying degrees of weekly changes. The stock index futures inflation score was 7, and the bond futures inflation score was 8 [3]. 3.1.3 Liquidity - Liquidity - related indicators such as DR007, DR001, and the US dollar index all changed last week. The stock index futures liquidity score was 5 [4]. 3.1.4 Index Valuation - Index valuation indicators such as PE, PS, and dividend yield showed different changes. The stock index futures valuation score was 10 [5]. 3.1.5 Market Sentiment - For the stock market, indicators such as margin trading balance and northbound capital inflows showed different trends. The stock index futures market sentiment score was 8. For the bond market, indicators such as the yield of 10 - year CDB bonds and the S&P 500 volatility index also showed different trends, and the bond futures market sentiment score was 8 [6][7]. 3.2 Strategy Introduction - The product pool includes stock index futures and treasury bond futures. The goal is to use a multi - strategy model to select and allocate contracts in the financial futures market to achieve stable net value growth. The short - term model focuses on market style, external factors, and liquidity, while the long - term model focuses on market expectations and macro - economic data. Open interest is synthesized by considering institutional long and short positions [17]. 3.3 Forecast Signals and Historical Data - As of last Friday, the short - term model, open interest indicator, long - term model, and comprehensive signals for IF, IH, IC, IM, T, and TF were provided. The comprehensive signal strength is weighted by three independent models (0 - 1). The trading rules include principles for going long and short, signal shielding during the delivery period, stop - loss points, and capital allocation [18]. - The trading signals of IF, IH, IC, IM, T, and TF from June 30 to July 4, 2025, were presented, along with the net value tracking data [20]. 3.4 Treasury Bond Futures Cross - Variety Arbitrage Strategy - The cross - variety arbitrage strategy is based on the signal resonance of the fundamental three - factor model and the trend regression model. The fundamental factors use the instantaneous forward - rate function proposed by Nelson and Siegel, which decomposes the interest - rate term structure into three parts: level, slope, and curvature. The model uses PCA, factor rotation, and logistic regression to construct the three - factor model, with signals divided into three categories. The trend regression model is used to filter signals, and trading occurs when there is resonance. In actual operation, a duration - neutral ratio of 1:1.8 is used to adjust the 10 - 5Y spread [21]. - The trading signals of the TF and T main contracts from June 30 to July 4, 2025, were provided [24].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market may fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to pressure on liquidity and demand, but in the short - term, the market's previously optimistic environment continues, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly, waiting for new policy signals [1] - Precious metals maintain a strong and volatile pattern and continue the upward trend; non - ferrous metals maintain a mild increase; black commodities rise; energy prices follow the external market to rise; chemicals rise slightly; agricultural products rise gently [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - Last week, the overall commodity market rose by 0.79%. Black and precious metals had relatively large increases of 1.79% and 1.25% respectively, while agricultural products, non - ferrous metals, and energy and chemicals rose by 0.54%, 0.36%, and 0.18% respectively [1][5] - Among specific varieties, the top gainers were rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore with increases of 2.57%, 2.56%, and 2.23% respectively, and the top losers were soda ash, LPG, and PTA with decreases of 1.84%, 1.74%, and 1.42% respectively [1] - The funds increased, mainly due to the inflow in the non - ferrous metal direction [1][6] 2. Outlook - The market focused on the passage of the US fiscal bill, tariff issues, and the signals of China - EU cooperation. In the short - term, the market is expected to fluctuate strongly, waiting for new policy signals [1] 3. Sub - sectors Analysis Precious Metals - Gold is supported by factors such as the tense Middle - East geopolitical situation, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, and the weakening of the US dollar index. Global central banks' continuous increase in gold reserves strengthens its asset - allocation value. Silver is driven by gold but has weaker elasticity due to its industrial attributes [2] Non - ferrous Metals - The market is boosted by the improvement of macro - expectations and the weakening of the US dollar. Copper, aluminum and other contracts rise slightly, but the rebound is limited by the short - term fundamentals [2] Black Commodities - Rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore and other varieties rise, driven by the improvement of downstream construction, the increase in steel出库 data, and the expectation of infrastructure and real - estate policies in the third quarter. Iron ore is also supported by the decline in port inventory [2] Energy - Crude oil prices rise following the external market, driven by OPEC+ production - cut policies and the increase in US summer travel demand. Domestic crude oil futures and related products also rise, although high inventory still has some suppression [3] Chemicals - The overall chemical market rises slightly. Products like plastics and PP rebound mildly, and PTA and ethylene glycol rise due to upstream cost support. However, the slow recovery of downstream demand restricts the upward momentum [3] Agricultural Products - The agricultural product sector rises gently. Some oil and fat varieties perform well, and the uncertainty of crop growth due to hot weather also supports the market [3] 4. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally have positive returns, with a total scale of 1,554.56 billion yuan and a 1.48% increase. The total scale of commodity ETFs is 1,615.16 billion yuan with a 1.20% increase [34]

| | | (苹果) 期价偏弱震荡。现货方面，主流报价持稳。需求进入淡季，虽然目前冷库苹果库存较低，但是时令水果上市量增加，天气也较 为炎热,苹果需求有所下降,现货价格走势转弱。早熟苹果方面,新季早熟苹果开始陆续供应市场。目前主要上市品种为光景 晨阳,运城地区65#黑上市价格同比上涨0.2-0.3元/斤,贸易商看涨意愿较强,关注后期早熟苹果价格走势。从交易逻辑来看, 市场的交易重心转向新季度的估产。今年西部产区受到案湖和花期大风的影响，但是低温对产量的影响不大，主要曾加了果锈 的风险。另一方面,今年产区整体花量较足,产量预估相对偏空,操作上维持偏空思路。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 | Million | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月07日 | | 棉花, | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ...

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Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Asphalt: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆, representing a bias towards a short - trend, with a driving force for a downward trend, but limited operability on the market [1] Core Views - The rapid production increase by OPEC+ has limited impact on oil prices in Q3. After the Q3 peak season, if the US equivalent tariff policy continues, oil prices may decline. Other energy products have their own supply - demand characteristics and short - term trends [2][3][4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. The actual monthly production increase of OPEC+ is less than the target increase. In Q3, the increase can be well absorbed by demand. After Q3, if the US tariff policy continues, oil prices may decline. Short - term view is that the bottom of oil prices will rise in Q3 [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil opening weak drove fuel - related futures down. High - sulfur fuel oil demand is low, and its price and cracking spread are weakening. Low - sulfur fuel oil has limited short - term supply pressure due to the coking profit and diesel cracking strength, but demand lacks a clear driver, with short - term cracking spread expected to be slightly stronger [2] Asphalt - With the decline of oil prices, asphalt prices also dropped. The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries decreased slightly, and the cumulative year - on - year increase dropped from 8% to 7%. Demand recovery is delayed, refinery inventory increased by 15,000 tons, and social inventory remained flat. The short - term trend is to fluctuate [3] LPG - The international market supply is loose, and overseas prices may be under pressure. Last week's new maintenance led to a decline in chemical demand, but the decline in import costs promoted the repair of PDH profit margins. In summer, supply pressure increases, and the market trend is weak [4]

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Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] 2) Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals declined. The better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls in June and the decrease in the unemployment rate led the market to abandon bets on a July interest rate cut. Economic data shows that the economy is not significantly weakening, and the Fed will base its next move on data performance. After the geopolitical risks cooled down and economic data suppressed the interest rate cut expectations, the market's focus this week is on the change of the US reciprocal tariff policy expiring on July 9. Trump said new tariffs would take effect on August 1, with rates ranging from 10 - 70%. The short - term direction of precious metals is unclear, and they will continue to fluctuate waiting for the impact of the final policy on market risk sentiment [1] 3) Other Key Points - On July 4, Trump signed a nearly 900 - page "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill, which includes many of his 2024 campaign promises. The bill will increase the federal fiscal deficit by about $3.3 trillion in the next decade [2] - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that several major agreements are close to being reached. If countries receiving tariff letters fail to reach an agreement, the tax rate will return to the April level on August 1. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said tariffs will take effect on August 1, and Trump is "now formulating tax rates and agreements". White House economic adviser Hassett said some trade negotiations may exceed the deadline [2] - Israel and Hamas' first - round indirect cease - fire negotiations in Qatar ended without results, with Israel saying Hamas' demands were "unacceptable" [2]

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