【沥青】 1-7月国内炼厂沥青累计产量同比预计增长7%。年初以来54家样本炼厂出货量累计同比增长8%，华南地区预计在7月 上句"出梅"后需求有进一步提升空间。1-5月压路机销量同比大增,Q3是沥青需求恢复的关键观测窗口期。供需 预期双增下平衡表预估去库趋势延续日库存水平偏低。BU裂解价差向上弹性放大的基调未被破坏,叠加地缘冲突缓 和后油价重回承压背景下BU裂解有修复空间。 【LPG】 7月CP大幅下调，冲突降温后国际市场增供压力再度主导市场。美国两院库存加速上升,MB价格相对承压。炼厂开 工影响下，上周国产气外放量继续走高，国内供应宽松基调强化。原油带动和政治风险溢价快速消退,关注海外出 口回升节奏,盘面震荡偏弱。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 | 《八 国経期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月01日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文文 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | な☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The short - term trends of various steel - related products are mainly oscillatory, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, profit margins of steel mills, and macro - political and economic situations [2][3][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures rebounded after a decline. Thread demand is short - term stable, production is rising, and inventory depletion is slowing. Hot - rolled coil demand is falling, production remains high, and inventory is slightly accumulating. Blast furnaces still have profits, and hot - metal production is relatively high, alleviating the negative feedback expectation. The downstream industries have problems such as lack of infrastructure recovery sustainability and poor real - estate indicators. The demand expectation is pessimistic, and the production - restriction expectation during the September event supports the futures. It will be mainly oscillatory in the short term [2] Iron Ore - Iron ore futures fell today, and the basis has narrowed recently. The global iron - ore shipment has declined, and there is an expectation of further decline in the future. The domestic arrival volume has decreased but will remain relatively high in the short term, and port inventory has stabilized and increased. Terminal demand in the off - season is as expected, steel mills' profitability is okay, and hot - metal production is high with low willingness to cut production. Geopolitical risks have decreased, and Sino - US trade has shown signs of further relaxation. The fundamentals have little change, and it will be mainly oscillatory in the short term [3] Coke - Coke prices declined during the day. There is an expectation of price increase, but production profits are meager, and daily production is falling from the annual high. Overall inventory has decreased, and traders' purchasing willingness is still low. The carbon - element supply is abundant, and hot - metal production in the off - season has not declined, bringing some optimistic expectations. The futures price has rebounded and is at a premium. It will be mainly oscillatory under inventory pressure [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices declined during the day. Policy may strengthen the control of over - production, affecting production. Coking - coal mine production has been falling, and some mines have reduced production due to environmental inspections. The spot auction market has slightly improved, and terminal inventory has continued to decline. The carbon - element supply is abundant, and hot - metal production in the off - season has not declined, bringing some optimistic expectations. The futures price is at a premium. It will be mainly oscillatory under inventory pressure [6] Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices declined. Due to previous production cuts, inventory has decreased, but weekly production is rising, and inventory is increasing again. The long - term manganese - ore inventory is increasing, and currently, the inventory level is low, increasing the price - holding intention of manganese mines. The spot resources of Comilog oxidized ore are scarce, and the price has slightly increased. It is recommended to try short - selling on rebounds [7] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices declined. Hot - metal production remains above 242. Export demand is about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased, and secondary demand remains high. Supply is decreasing, market transactions are average, and on - balance - sheet inventory is decreasing, but production - end inventory is increasing. Some producers may adopt a trading model to help destock. It is recommended to try short - selling on rebounds [8]

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E Katha USDA种植面积报告和季度库存报告解读20250701 国投期货研究院 美国时间2025年6月30日,美国农业部发布了2025年夏季农作物种植面积报告和季度 库存报告。报告数据未发生重大方向性变化,美大豆和玉米种植面积较一季度预测值略 减,但幅度不大,报告偏中性。季度库存方面,较报告前预测值略增,两份报告对市场形 成小时级别压制,但整体影响不大。具体数据如下: 安如泰山 信守承诺 玉米方面,最新美国农业部预计2025年美国玉米种植面积为9520.3万英亩,3月31日 的一季度种植面积报告预估为9532.6万英亩,下降了0.13%。这一数字咯低于路透统计的 平均预测值9535万英亩,分析师预估范围在9375万英亩至9680万英亩之间。最新数据 9520.3万英亩的美玉米种植面积,为2013年以来玉米最大种植面积,历史第三高。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 1 | 2025年二季度USDA农作物季度库存 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 (単位: 亿蒲式耳） | 大豆 | 玉米 | 小麦 | | 2025年二季度 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending June 29, the good-to-excellent rate of U.S. soybeans was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 67%, the same as the previous week and lower than 67% of the same period last year. The emergence rate was 94% and the flowering rate was 17%. The good-to-excellent rate remained flat [1]. - The good-to-excellent rate of U.S. corn was 73%, higher than the market expectation of 70%, up from 70% the previous week and 67% of the same period last year. The silking rate was 8%, indicating that the growth of U.S. corn continued to improve [1]. - In the next two weeks, rainfall and temperature in most soybean and corn - growing areas in the U.S. will be higher than the same - period average, which is conducive to the planting and growth of soybeans and corn. The market has entered the weather - trading window, and investors should pay close attention to the driving changes brought by weather changes from June to August. Since the U.S. weather has not deteriorated for the time being, there is still some room for future price increases [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Soybean Data** - Good - to - excellent rate: 66% (current), 66% (previous week), 67% (same period last year), 67% (market expectation) [1]. - Emergence rate: 94% (current), 90% (previous week), 94% (same period last year) [1]. - Flowering rate: 17% (current), 18% (previous week), 16% (same period last year) [1]. - Seeding rate: 96% (current), 97% (previous week), 97% (same period last year), 98% (5 - year average) [1]. - **Corn Data** - Good - to - excellent rate: 73% (current), 70% (previous week), 67% (same period last year), 70% (market expectation) [1]. - Silking rate: 8% (current), 10% (previous week), 8% (same period last year) [1]. - Emergence rate: 97% (current), 98% (previous week), 96% (same period last year) [1]. - Seeding rate: 96% (current), 97% (previous week), 97% (same period last year), 98% (5 - year average) [1].

Group 1: Report Core View - The planting area of US cotton in 2025 is higher than market expectations, with a total of 10.12 million acres, a 9.5% decrease from 2024, but higher than the 9.87 million acres in the June USDA monthly supply - demand report and the pre - report market estimate of 9.735 million acres. The area of upland cotton is 9.949 million acres, and pima cotton is 171,000 acres, both showing year - on - year decreases. Currently, the cotton planting is almost finished, the weather is generally good, the excellent - good rate has rebounded, and the drought impact is low. There is an upward adjustment expectation for the later US cotton production [1][2]. Group 2: Data Summary from the US Planting Area Report - The report presents the planting and harvest areas of different states in 2024 and 2025. For example, in Alabama, the 2024 planting area was 400,000 acres, and it decreased to 340,000 acres in 2025. The total planting area of upland cotton decreased from 10.976 million acres in 2024 to 9.949 million acres in 2025, and the total planting area of pima cotton decreased from 207,000 acres in 2024 to 171,000 acres in 2025. The combined total planting area of upland and pima cotton decreased from 11.183 million acres in 2024 to 10.12 million acres in 2025 [3]. Group 3: Data Sources - All data sources are USDA and Guotou Futures [4].

Report Summary Investment Ratings - Gold: Not clearly indicated [1] - Silver: ★★★, representing a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Views - Overnight, precious metals rebounded slightly. With the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, market risk appetite improved, and the gold price has given back the war premium. Market focus has shifted to tariff negotiations and the Fed [1]. - Trump criticized the Fed again, and there are speculations about Powell's successor. Fed official Bostic still expects one rate cut this year and three next year, and Goldman Sachs advanced its Fed rate - cut forecast to September [1]. - Trump will meet with the trade team this week to determine national tariff rates. There are expectations of tariff exemptions for certain agricultural products. Canada cancelled the digital service tax, and the EU will go to the US for trade negotiations on July 1st, with the EU seeking exemptions for key industries. US Treasury Secretary believes there will be a wave of trade - agreement signings in the last week before the July 9th deadline [1][2] Other Summaries - Tonight, the US ISM manufacturing PMI and JOLTs job openings will be released [1] - The White House said Trump will meet with the trade team this week to set national tariff rates, and the US Agriculture Secretary expects possible tariff exemptions for hard - to - grow agricultural products in the US [2] - Canada cancelled the digital service tax, and the White House will restart negotiations with Canada. EU officials will go to the US for trade talks on July 1st, and the EU may accept general tariffs but seek exemptions for key industries [2] - US Treasury Secretary Bostic thinks there will be a flurry of trade - agreement signings in the last week before July 9th [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ☆☆☆ (White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but poor operability on the market) [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆ (White stars) [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not rated [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (One star) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ (White stars) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (One star) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ (Three stars) [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ (Three stars) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall performance of the non - ferrous metals market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - economy, supply - demand fundamentals, and technical trends. Different metals have different price trends and investment suggestions [2][3][4] - Some metals are in a state of high inventory, which affects their price trends and investment opportunities. For example, lithium carbonate has high inventory, and its price rebound is not stable [9] - Market sentiment and external events also have an impact on metal prices. For example, the US dollar index, fiscal policies, and manufacturing PMI data can all affect the price of non - ferrous metals [2][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper in the afternoon session increased in position and rose to 80,600 yuan. The spot copper was reported at 80,205 yuan, with a premium in Shanghai of 200 yuan and in Guangdong rising to 90 yuan. The refined - scrap price difference was still 2,100 yuan. In July, the LME Hong Kong warehouse will be put into use, and attention should be paid to the logistics impact. Technically, the short - term upward trend of Shanghai copper may reach above 81,000 yuan. Long - term trend trading is still recommended to focus on short - selling at high levels [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated today. The spot premium in East China continued to decline by 30 yuan to 40 yuan, the processing fee of aluminum rods in South China fell to negative, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to increase slightly. There are signs of advanced terminal consumption and off - season negative feedback. The recent improvement in macro - risk appetite has promoted the strength of non - ferrous metals. The position of the Shanghai aluminum index is at a high level in recent years, indicating great market divergence. Be vigilant against the risk of a phased correction. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated narrowly, and the Baotai ADC12 quotation was stable at 19,500 yuan. The peak - season contract maintained a certain premium. The spot price difference between aluminum and cast aluminum alloy is large, but the price difference between AL2511 and AD2511 only fluctuates around 400 yuan. If it expands, consider a long - AD and short - AL strategy. Recently, the spot transaction price of alumina is 3,000 - 3,100 yuan. The price of Guinea ore has stabilized at 75 US dollars, corresponding to the cost in Shanxi of around 3,000 yuan. The domestic operating capacity has increased for six consecutive weeks to over 93 million tons, and the spot liquidity has improved. In the context of oversupply, the futures market fluctuates weakly, and it is advisable to short at high levels [3] Zinc - Trump promoted the "big and beautiful" bill, the US dollar index continued to decline, and the external metal market was strong, which pulled up the domestic market. The fundamentals of zinc still show an increase in supply and weak demand. The zinc price first declined and then rose during the day, and closed down overall. The weighted position decreased by more than 6,000 lots to 268,800 lots, and the funds flowed out by 184 million yuan. The 600,000 - ton zinc smelter in Huoshaoyun has started feeding production, and the new production capacities of Wanyang and Yunnan Copper have gradually come into production. There is still pressure on the domestic supply side, and zinc is still mainly recommended for short - selling on rebounds [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded and fluctuated at a high level, and the market trading was active. In terms of spot, the premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,600 yuan, the premium of imported nickel was 400 yuan, and the premium of electrowinning nickel was 150 yuan. The loading progress of nickel mines in the Philippines has limited impact on the supply of the ore end, and the calming of the situation in Indonesia is still the main pressure on the ore end. The price of high - nickel ferro - nickel is quoted at 913 yuan per nickel point, and the support from upstream prices has weakened significantly recently. In terms of inventory, the nickel - iron inventory increased to 35,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory decreased to 38,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory remained at a high level of around one million tons, with the latest report at 992,000 tons. Technically, Shanghai nickel is at the end of the rebound, waiting for the short - selling opportunity to mature [7] Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin was driven by the sentiment in the copper market at the end of the session, and increased in position and rose nearly 270,000 yuan in the short term. Today's spot tin was 266,500 yuan, with a premium of 110 yuan over the delivery month. The tin market is in the off - season of consumption, and the price range of 268,000 - 272,000 yuan is considered a relatively high - level area. Contracts in the far - month are recommended for short - selling [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fluctuated and rebounded, and the market trading was active. The total market inventory continued to rise to the recent highest level of 137,000 tons. Downstream replenishment increased by 300 tons to 40,635 tons, and traders continued to replenish inventory by 1,000 tons to 37,000 tons. The confidence of downstream enterprises has significantly increased. It is understood that the downstream production schedule in July is relatively strong, and the factor of rushing for exports still exists. Technically, lithium carbonate is in a rebound, but the current inventory is still high, and the ore price is also in the rebound period. The rebound of the futures price is not stable. However, from another perspective, the industrial chain still needs time to digest the new price level around 60,000 yuan, and it is regarded as a short - term fluctuation [9] Industrial Silicon - The futures price of industrial silicon significantly dropped to 7,765 yuan/ton, and the market trading cooled down. As Yunnan entered the wet season, many industrial silicon plants started to resume production today. At the same time, there is a new expectation of resuming production from a large factory in Xinjiang after the rumor of production reduction. There are frequent fluctuations on the supply side. After the price reached the 8,000 - yuan/ton mark, the chasing - up momentum of long - position funds weakened. Coupled with the possible entry of some hedging funds, the futures price quickly dropped. In addition, the theme of "anti - involution" has once again sparked heated discussions recently, and the market's expectation of supply - side regulation policies has increased. In summary, the price of industrial silicon is at a low level, with a mixture of long and short themes, and its trend is expected to be mainly volatile [10] Polysilicon - The futures price of polysilicon dropped significantly to 32,700 yuan/ton, and the market trading cooled down, which was affected to some extent by the callback of the industrial silicon futures. The weak reality of polysilicon continues. In July, downstream enterprises continued to revise down their monthly production schedules, and the total inventory of polysilicon remained at a high level of 270,000 tons. The increase in supply from leading enterprises is not clear for the time being. However, from the perspective of the futures price, it is still in a state of discount. Coupled with the recent resurgence of the "anti - involution" theme and the increasing market expectation of supply - side regulation policies, the downward space is still relatively limited, and the trend is expected to maintain a volatile state [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change in the closing price from the previous Friday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - **Commodities**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, commodities such as coke, copper, and iron ore had price increases, with coke rising 2.67%, copper rising 2.47%, and iron ore rising 1.92%. Commodities like corn, gold, and palm oil had price decreases, with corn falling 1.04%, gold falling 1.56%, and palm oil falling 1.87%. Crude oil had a significant drop of 12.02% [3]. - **A - shares**: During the same period, the CSI 500 rose 3.98%, the SSE 50 rose 1.27%, and the CSI 300 rose 1.95% [3]. - **Overseas Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 rose 4.55%, the Nasdaq Index rose 4.25%, and the S&P 500 rose 3.44% [3]. - **Bonds**: The 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.64%, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.19% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 1.69%, the US dollar index fell 1.52%, and the US dollar central parity rate fell 0.09% [3]. 3.2大宗商品观点汇总 3.2.1宏观金融板块 - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a low risk - premium rate of the CSI 300, increased issuance of equity - oriented public funds, and sufficient bottom - supporting funds. Bearish factors included short - term difficulty in improving corporate fundamentals, the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, and over - heated market sentiment [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included net liquidity injection by the central bank, weak credit and inflation data, and strong demand for bond allocation. Bearish factors included the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and rising long - term interest rates [4]. 3.2.2能源板块 - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included falling US and Cushing crude oil inventories, reduced Russian exports, and geopolitical tensions. Bearish factors included the decline in geopolitical premiums, expected OPEC production increases, and weak terminal demand [5]. - **Eggs**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included postponed peak - season stocking, approaching stocking season, potential egg - price increases, and reduced supply due to heat. Bearish factors included limited decline in laying - hen inventory, high chick - replenishment volume, high new - production capacity, and postponed downstream stocking [5]. 3.2.3有色板块 - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 5 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, improved risk appetite, and falling global visible inventories. Bearish factors included the substitution effect of recycled copper, weakening downstream procurement, and weakening terminal demand [6]. - **Methanol**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 6 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included limited port - available goods, expected low port inventories, and increased downstream demand. Bearish factors included expected increases in Iranian imports, port inventory accumulation, potential MTO device maintenance, and a loosening supply - demand pattern [6]. 3.2.4贵金属 - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a downward trend in real interest rates, and the strengthening of gold's safe - haven property. Bearish factors included reduced safe - haven demand, capital flowing to risky assets, and technical - level sell - offs [7]. 3.2.5黑色板块 - **Iron Ore**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included increased molten - iron production, expected decline in overseas shipments, and improved macro sentiment. Bearish factors included rising port inventories, increased global shipments, weakening demand for five major steel products, and narrowing basis [7].

国投期货研究院 (责金属) 隔夜贵金属小幅反弹。近期随着伊以停火市场风险偏好向好，金价回吐战争溢价，市场关注点将转 向关税谈判和美联储。特朗普对关税延期不置可否,鲍威尔认为利率的变化仍取决于经济走向,关 注本周一系列重要数据验证，今晚将公布美国ISM制造业PMI和JOLTs职位空缺数。 【铜】 隔夜铜价收复盘中跌幅，美元指数因财政法案与7月降息概率延续弱势，同时，加拿大取消数字关 税,美股再创历史新高。沪铜夜盘阳线,昨日现铜79990元,上海铜升水130元,精废价差扩至2100 元以上，SMM社库12.61万吨。技术上，短线沪铜涨势可能打开到8.1万。中长期趋势交易仍建议关 注高位空配。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝震荡。周初铝锭铝棒社库较上周四小幅增加,华东现货升水继续下降30元至70元,华南铝 棒加工费跌至负值,终端消费前置和淡季负反馈初步显现。近期宏观风险偏好向好推动有色强势, 沪铝指数持仓处于近年高位显示市场分歧大, 警惕阶段性回调风险。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年07月01日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价延续震荡偏弱走势，布伦特09合约涨0.44%。伊以冲突降温后原 ...