1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability in the market [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly indicated in a comparable rating style [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability, and investors are advised to wait and see [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand situation of crude oil remains loose, and the rebound is mainly supported by Middle - East geopolitical risks. After the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran, the risk premium will decline, and Brent will return to the $57 - 70 per barrel range [1] - After the Middle - East conflict eases, fuel - related futures follow the decline of oil prices. The decline of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU) is deeper than that of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) [2] - In July, the planned asphalt production of refineries is 247 million tons. The supply may be compressed, but the terminal demand is expected to be boosted, and the BU crack spread continues to rise [2] - The international market of liquefied petroleum gas may decline due to supply pressure after the geopolitical risk eases, and the domestic market faces the pressure of falling gross profit after the increase in import costs [3] 3. Summaries According to Different Products Crude Oil - Overnight, international oil prices declined, with the SC08 contract dropping 1.93% during the day. The supply - demand situation remains loose, and the rebound is mainly supported by geopolitical risks. The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran will lead to a decline in risk premiums, and Brent will return to the $57 - 70 per barrel range. Investors can consider short - selling strategies at the upper boundary of the range [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - After the Middle - East conflict eases, fuel - related futures follow the decline of oil prices. The decline of FU is deeper than that of LU. The demand for ship refueling and deep - processing is low, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in power generation in the Middle East and North Africa is discounted. The low - sulfur fuel oil crack spread rebounds from a low level [2] Asphalt - In July, the planned production of refineries is 247 million tons. Some refineries' maintenance is postponed, and one refinery resumes production. The supply may be compressed, and the terminal demand is expected to be boosted. The BU crack spread continues to rise [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The international market may decline due to supply pressure after the geopolitical risk eases. The domestic chemical demand increases, but there is pressure on gross profit after the increase in import costs. The supply pressure will drive the price down [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★★★ [1] - Coking Coal: No rating provided [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon Ferroalloy: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The overall demand for steel is weak, the market sentiment is cautious, and the futures market is under pressure [2] - The short - term supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate [3] - Coke and coking coal prices may have upward drivers, but are affected by factors such as oil prices [4][6] - The fundamentals of silicon manganese have limited improvement, and the market temporarily expects a short - term rise [7] - The demand for silicon ferroalloy is acceptable, and the market temporarily expects a short - term rise [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The futures market is weakly volatile. The demand for thread in the off - season is under pressure, the production has increased, and the inventory reduction has slowed down. The demand for hot - rolled coil is resilient, the production remains high, and the inventory has decreased [2] - The blast furnace still has profits, and the molten iron production remains relatively high. However, the off - season carrying capacity is insufficient, and the negative feedback expectation still ferments repeatedly [2] - The downstream demand is weak, the demand expectation is pessimistic, and the market is cautious. Pay attention to terminal demand and policy changes [2] Iron Ore - The global shipment of iron ore is at a high level, and there is an expectation of a year - end rush. The port inventory in China has begun to stabilize and increase, and the supply pressure has increased marginally [3] - In the off - season, the terminal demand has resilience, the steel mill profitability rate has improved, the molten iron production remains high, and the steel mills have weak willingness to actively reduce production and have short - term replenishment actions [3] - The short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited, and the trend is expected to be volatile [3] Coke - The price has risen significantly during the day, and there is an expectation of a price increase in the market [4] - The daily production of molten iron has increased slightly to 242.18 tons per day. The coke profit is meager, and the daily production of coking has continued to decline from the annual high [4] - The overall coke inventory has decreased, and the purchasing willingness of traders is still low. The coke price is affected by oil price fluctuations, and there may be an upward driver [4] Coking Coal - The price has risen significantly during the day. Policy may strengthen the control of over - production, which may affect production [6] - The production of coking coal mines has continued to decline. Due to the safety production month and environmental inspections, some mines have reduced production [6] - The spot auction market has improved slightly, the transaction price has risen slightly, and the terminal inventory has continued to decline. The coking coal price is affected by the sharp decline in oil prices and may be strongly volatile [6] Silicon Manganese - The price volatility has increased during the day. Due to previous continuous production cuts, the inventory level has decreased, but the weekly production has begun to increase, and the fundamentals have limited improvement [7] - Pay attention to the August forward price of South32 to China. In the short term, the manganese ore inventory is low, and the price of Comilog oxidized ore has risen slightly [7] - The trading logic of the futures market changes rapidly, and it is temporarily bullish in the short term [7] Silicon Ferroalloy - The price has fluctuated upward during the day. The molten iron production has risen above 242, the export demand is about 30,000 tons, and the marginal impact is small [8] - The production of magnesium metal has increased month - on - month, the secondary demand remains high, and the overall demand is acceptable [8] - The supply of silicon ferroalloy has continued to decline, the market transaction level is average, and the inventory has decreased. Some production is in cash - flow loss, which is conducive to inventory reduction, and it is temporarily bullish in the short term [8]

Group 1: Energy and Metals - The overnight international oil price dropped, with Brent's August contract falling 4.01%. Global oil inventories increased in Q1 and Q2, and the supply-demand imbalance persists. Brent is expected to return to the $57 - $70 per barrel range, and investors can consider shorting at the upper boundary [2]. - Precious metals declined as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran reduced risk - aversion sentiment. Market focus may shift to tariff negotiations and the Fed [3]. - LME copper retraced gains, with the LME 0 - 3 month premium dropping to $150. Short positions should be held [4]. - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated overnight. Social inventories increased, and there are short - selling opportunities after the narrowing of the monthly spread [5]. - Alumina spot trading was scarce, and the futures are in a weak oscillation. Short - selling on rebounds is recommended [6]. - Cast aluminum alloy futures had limited fluctuations. Consider a long AD and short AL strategy if the spread between AL2511 and AD2511 widens [7]. - Shanghai zinc's upward movement was driven by short - covering, but downstream demand is weak. The market is expected to remain bearish on rebounds [8]. - Shanghai lead is currently in a state of wait - and - see. A long position can be considered if it breaks through 17,000 [9]. - Shanghai nickel is in a bearish trend, and short positions should be held [10]. - Tin prices oscillated downward. Hold a small number of short positions in the far - month contracts [11]. - Lithium carbonate futures rebounded, but the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. - Polysilicon futures rebounded with a reduction in positions. The market is expected to remain weakly oscillating [13]. - Industrial silicon futures rose slightly, but the upward drive is limited. Hold a wait - and - see attitude [14]. - Steel prices continued to decline at night. Demand expectations are pessimistic, and the market is under pressure [15]. - Iron ore prices weakened overnight. Supply is expected to increase, and the market will oscillate in the short term [16]. - Coke prices oscillated. The fourth round of price cuts was fully implemented, and the market will oscillate narrowly [17]. - Coking coal prices oscillated weakly. Production decreased due to safety inspections, and the market will oscillate narrowly and weakly [18]. - Manganese silicon prices' volatility increased. The market is expected to rise in the short term [19]. - Silicon iron prices oscillated. The market is expected to rise in the short term [20]. Group 2: Shipping and Chemicals - The opening of Maersk's W28 voyage cabins at lower prices strengthened the market's pessimistic expectation of falling freight rates. The market lacks positive factors in the short term [21]. - Fuel oil futures fell following the decline in crude oil prices. The cracking spread of low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to rebound [22]. - The potential increase in fuel oil deduction ratio for asphalt refineries may be negative for the asphalt market. Terminal demand is expected to improve [23]. - Liquefied petroleum gas prices are under downward pressure due to increased supply after the easing of geopolitical risks [24]. - Urea demand is approaching the end of the peak season, and exports may be the key to the subsequent market [25]. - Methanol prices dropped due to the easing of the Israel - Iran situation. The market is mainly affected by the macro - situation [26]. - Styrene prices are expected to continue to decline as the ceasefire agreement led to a drop in oil prices. Supply pressure is increasing [27]. - Polypropylene and plastic prices are affected by the decline in oil prices. Supply and demand are relatively stable [28]. - PVC prices may oscillate at a low level. Caustic soda prices are weak, and the supply pressure is high [29]. - PX and PTA prices oscillated narrowly. The supply - demand pattern may become looser in the medium term [30]. - Ethylene glycol prices continued to decline. It will oscillate at the bottom in the medium term [31]. - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices followed the decline of raw materials. The situation of short - fiber is relatively better [32]. - Glass prices weakened slightly at night. High inventory and weak demand persist [33]. - Rubber supply is increasing, and demand is recovering. It is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude [34]. - Soda ash prices are expected to be bearish in the long term due to high supply pressure [35]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate. Pay attention to weather changes from June to August [36]. - Vegetable oil prices fell following the decline in oil prices. Long - term long positions can be considered on dips [37]. - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly. A bearish strategy is recommended in the short term [38]. - Domestic soybean prices oscillated. Pay attention to the US soybean new - crop area report at the end of June [39]. - Corn prices continued to decline. The market may oscillate in the short term [40]. - Pig futures prices fluctuated. There is large pressure on future pig supplies [41]. - Egg futures prices continued to fall. Egg production capacity is still being released [42]. - Cotton prices are recommended to be bought on dips. Pay attention to the US cotton planting area report at the end of June [43]. - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate. US sugar is still in a downward trend [44]. - Apple prices are recommended to be shorted. The new - season production is expected to be bearish [45]. - Wood prices oscillated. Supply is tight, but demand is in the off - season [46]. - Pulp prices are recommended to be held in a wait - and - see attitude. Supply is relatively loose [47]. Group 4: Financial Instruments - A - shares rebounded strongly, and index futures rose. After the cease - fire, the market may refocus on economic and trade negotiations. Increase the allocation of technology - growth stocks [48]. - Treasury bond futures mostly fell. The bond market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [49].

| Millio | 国投期货 | 黑色金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月24日 | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | な女女 | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ☆☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆★ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 | | | 今日盘面震荡回落。螺纹表需环比趋稳，产量有所回升，库存继续下降。热卷需求回暖，产量维持高位，库存有所回落。目前 高炉仍有利润，铁水产量维持相对高位，不过淡季承接能力不足，负反馈预期仍反复发酵。从下游行业看，基建回暖缺乏持续 性，制造业投资增速继续放缓，地产销售低位徘徊，投资、新 ...

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Group 1: Soybean Data - The document presents the USDA US soybean sowing rate from April 11 to June 20, including the current rate, the 5 - year average, and the rate of the previous year [1] - It also shows the USDA US soybean emergence rate from May 2 to June 20, with the current rate, 5 - year average, and previous - year rate [1] - The USDA US soybean good - to - excellent rate from 2021 to 2025 is presented [1] Group 2: Corn Data - The USDA US corn sowing rate from April 18 to June 20 is shown, including the current rate, 5 - year average, and previous - year rate [1] - The USDA US corn emergence rate from April 18 to June 20 is presented, with the current rate, 5 - year average, and previous - year rate [1] - The USDA US corn good - to - excellent rate from 2021 to 2025 is shown, with data from May 26 to October 13 [1]

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