Report Industry Investment Ratings - Red stars represent a predicted trend of rising prices, while green stars represent a predicted trend of falling prices. One star indicates a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor. Two stars mean holding long/short positions, with a clear upward/downward trend and the market situation evolving on the trading floor. Three stars suggest an even clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity at present. White stars indicate a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [10] - Investment ratings for different products: - Soybean No.1: ★☆☆ (predicted to be bullish with limited trading floor operability) [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ (predicted to have a clear upward trend and appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ (predicted to have a clear upward trend and appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Soybean Meal: ★☆☆ (predicted to be bullish with limited trading floor operability) [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ (predicted to be bullish with limited trading floor operability) [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ (predicted to have a clear upward trend and appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Corn: ★★★ (predicted to have a clear upward trend and appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Live Pigs: ★★★ (predicted to have a clear upward trend and appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ (predicted to be bearish with limited trading floor operability) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including price trends, supply - demand situations, and influencing factors, and provides investment suggestions based on these analyses. Key factors to watch include policy changes, weather conditions, trade agreements, and supply - demand data reports [2][3][4] Summary by Product Soybean No.1 - The price of the domestic soybean futures main contract is oscillating at a high level. Today, 32,000 tons of domestic soybeans were auctioned at a reserve price of 3,900 yuan/ton, with 1,300 tons sold at a 4.03% success rate and an average price of 3,900 yuan/ton. The spot market price is stable. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is oscillating horizontally. Short - term focus is on domestic soybean policies and market sentiment [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - US soybeans reached a recent high, and the main contract of Dalian soybean meal futures M2601 rose accordingly. The planting progress of new - season soybeans in Brazil is slow, and some soybeans in Paraná state may need to be replanted due to a tornado. Commercial imports of US soybeans lack price advantages, while policy - based purchases should be unaffected. Attention is on the USDA November supply - demand report, and there are opportunities for bargain - hunting long positions after the relaxation of Sino - US trade relations [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - This week, focus on the guidance of the US Department of Agriculture supply - demand report. Rapeseed oil is leading the market strongly. Soybean oil and palm oil are following the upward trend, with soybean oil performing better. Palm oil in Malaysia has a high inventory, and future price trends depend on November's supply - demand situation. The loss in the near - end crushing profit of imported soybeans supports soybean oil prices. For palm oil, its price is oscillating horizontally, and its supply - demand situation and the trends of surrounding oils need to be monitored [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed market maintains the pattern of strong oil and weak meal, with the positions of the main contracts increasing. Rapeseed oil is stronger than other vegetable oils, with increased提货量 at coastal oil mills. The inventory of rapeseed oil has declined significantly. Canada's biofuel incentive plan boosts the demand for Canadian rapeseed oil. The rapeseed futures price is under short - term pressure, and the pattern of strong oil and weak meal is expected to continue [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures contract 2601 continued to rise. In the Northeast, the temperature is dropping, and the grain sales progress is slower than expected, with stable - to - rising spot prices. In Shandong, the supply of corn is tight, and the spot price is stable. Wheat prices are weakening due to the expected auction. The rebound of corn futures is expected to be limited, and the 01 contract may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The far - month live pig futures continued to rise, and the near - month contracts followed. The spot price of live pigs decreased by 0.1 yuan/kg. The futures market is trading on the expectation of capacity reduction. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig cycle bottom often shows a double - bottom "W" shape, and there is a high probability of a second bottoming in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - The decline of egg futures accelerated, with positions shifting from near - month to far - month contracts and overall position reduction. The spot price is mostly stable across the country, with slight drops in some areas. The futures price is based on the spot market logic, with high production capacity on the supply side and the off - season of demand. High - position short positions can be held, and attention should be paid to spot performance and the culling of old hens [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, showing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★, representing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Tin: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, showing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★, representing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Report's Core Views - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is affected by factors such as the US government's end of the shutdown, expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut, and industry - specific supply - demand and policy situations. Different metals show various price trends and investment opportunities [2][3][5] Summary by Metal Copper - On Thursday, the non - ferrous metals sector showed a rising trend with increased positions. The short - term prices of Shanghai copper and LME copper tested RMB 88,000 and $11,000 respectively. The SMM social inventory increased by 5,200 tons to 201,100 tons this week, and the spot copper price rose to RMB 87,210. The Shanghai copper still had a premium of RMB 50. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance at the upper integer levels [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum continued to rise with increased positions. The spot premiums and discounts in East, Central, and South China showed little change. The macro environment is positive, and the long - term supply - demand situation in the aluminum market is promising, but the short - term fundamentals are stable. The high point of Shanghai aluminum refreshed a three - year high, and the index increased positions by 30,000 lots to 820,000 lots. The price of Baotai ADC12 spot increased by RMB 100 to RMB 21,100. Alumina has an oversupply situation, and its price is expected to be weak with limited rebound space [2] Zinc - The external market remained strong, and the export window for zinc ingots opened. The domestic smelters' production cuts are gradually being implemented, and the spot in East China is tight. The SMM zinc social inventory decreased by 800 tons to 157,900 tons. The price difference between the internal and external markets has limited room for further expansion. The short - term rebound of Shanghai zinc is expected to reach RMB 23,200/ton [3] Aluminum - The new national standard for electric two - wheeled vehicles will be fully implemented on December 1st, which is expected to improve the consumption of lead - acid batteries. The domestic aluminum spot is tight, and there may be hoarding by traders. The SMM aluminum social inventory continued to rise to 34,900 tons, and the futures - spot price difference widened. The price of Shanghai aluminum may face pressure at RMB 17,800/ton, but it is expected to break through the upper space, with the fourth - quarter high expected to reach RMB 18,200 - 18,500/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined slightly, and the trading was active with increasing positions. The nickel industry chain was affected by overall overcapacity and showed a dull performance. The mainstream stainless - steel mills cancelled price limits and then lowered the stainless - steel prices. The market was sluggish, and the trading volume was low. The pure nickel inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 49,100 tons, the nickel - iron inventory increased by 500 tons to 29,600 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 1,300 tons to 946,000 tons. The nickel price is expected to be weak [6] Tin - The weighted price of Shanghai tin touched the RMB 600,000 integer level, and the trading was active. The spot tin price rose to RMB 296,000, and the real - time discount to the delivery month widened to RMB 1,250. The short - term price may test the integer level again. From a fundamental perspective, a short - long and long - short strategy or the allocation of out - of - the - money call options is recommended [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate fluctuated at a high level, and the trading was active. The downstream battery factory orders increased due to the progress of pure - electric heavy - truck projects, the peak sales season of traditional vehicles, and the high demand for energy - storage batteries. The market inventory decreased by 3,400 tons to 124,000 tons. The short - term trend is expected to be strong with a fluctuating pattern [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures declined in the late trading, giving back the intraday gains. The expected production cuts and price increases of silicone monomer enterprises may drag down the demand for industrial silicon. The monthly production of industrial silicon is restricted by the dry season, and the production of downstream polysilicon has also significantly decreased. The short - term price is expected to weaken [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures continued to rise, closing above RMB 54,000/ton. The disclosure of the significant achievements in the self - discipline of the photovoltaic industry by the National Energy Administration boosted market sentiment. The supply - demand situation has limited marginal improvement, but the industry has a strong willingness to support prices. The short - term spot price is expected to be stable, and the futures price will continue to fluctuate [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ (Bullish, and the market trend is emerging) [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - PX: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] Report's Core View - The overall supply in the chemical market is relatively loose, and the demand shows a mixed trend. Some products are affected by factors such as device maintenance, overseas market trends, and seasonal demand changes, and their prices and market trends vary [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contracts of olefin futures fluctuated within a narrow range. The overall supply was loose, and the transaction was average. The demand for propylene had some support due to the resumption of some devices [2] - The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene futures closed slightly higher. The supply of polyethylene was stable, but the demand was weakening. The spot of polypropylene showed signs of stabilizing [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene rose strongly in the morning and then fell in the afternoon. The overseas gasoline trend was strong, but the rebound height should be viewed with caution due to weak downstream profits [3] - The main contract of styrene futures closed significantly higher. The overseas market was strong, but the future supply was expected to increase [3] Polyester - Affected by aromatics blending for gasoline, the prices of PX and PTA rebounded. However, considering the weakening chemical demand and uncertain US demand, a cautious bullish view was taken [5] - The weekly output of ethylene glycol increased slightly, with supply growth pressure. A bearish view was maintained in the medium - term [5] - Short fiber had no new investment pressure, but demand was expected to weaken. Bottle chip demand declined, and over - capacity was a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The main contract of methanol futures fluctuated at a low level. The port was accumulating inventory, and the short - term was under pressure, but the valuation was low [6] - The urea market was supported by the rumor of export quota release, and the short - term was expected to fluctuate in a range with a slightly upward price center [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC fluctuated within a narrow range. The cancellation of India's BIS certification had little impact, and the market was in a state of high supply and low demand [7] - Caustic soda showed a weak trend due to high supply pressure and insufficient downstream demand [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash showed a strong trend. The cost increased, and the short - term price was difficult to fall, but there was an oversupply situation in the long - term [8] - Glass fluctuated within a narrow range. The mid - stream inventory was high, and the price increase was weak, but the decline space was also limited [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold and silver are both rated ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core View of the Report - Overnight, precious metals continued their strong rebound, with silver showing elasticity. The end of the US government shutdown and market expectations of future interest rate cuts have led to a short - term shift to interest - rate cut trading, making commodities generally stronger. However, whether precious metals can regain their upward momentum remains to be confirmed, and international gold and silver should pay attention to the resistance at previous high positions [1] Other Key Points - After Trump signs the temporary appropriation bill, multiple federal departments such as the Department of Health and Human Services, the Department of the Interior, the Department of Housing and Urban Development, and the Department of Justice have notified employees to return to work on the 13th. But it's uncertain when furloughed employees will receive back pay and if salary payments can resume quickly [2] - Four voting local Fed presidents are not enthusiastic about another interest rate cut in December. Boston Fed President Collins believes the Fed will likely keep interest rates at the current level for some time, and before cutting rates, it's necessary to ensure inflation can sustainably return to 2% [2] - White House official Hassett hopes the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points but expects only a 25 - basis - point cut, and is willing to accept the position of Fed Chairman if needed [2] - The US Supreme Court will hold an oral argument on Trump's request to fire Fed Governor Cook on January 21 next year [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short-term trend with poor market operability, suggesting a wait-and-see approach [1] Core Viewpoints - The market is bearish on crude oil prices in the short term and recommends shorting on price rebounds [2] - The high-sulfur fuel oil market is affected by supply and demand factors, while the low-sulfur fuel oil market has improved fundamentals. The strategy of widening the high-low sulfur spread has been gradually realized and can be considered for timely profit-taking [2] - The asphalt market is bearish in the medium and long term due to weak fundamentals [3] - The liquefied petroleum gas market is expected to fluctuate upward due to tightened supply and demand [4] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices dropped significantly, with the SC12 contract falling 3.66%. The OPEC November report adjusted the non-OPEC+ supply growth rate upward and maintained the demand growth rate, shifting the balance sheet from a shortage to a balance, amplifying market pessimism. Last week, the US API crude oil inventory increased by 1.3 million barrels [2] - Since November, the crude oil calendar spread and spot premium have weakened again. Considering that the most relaxed quarter of the balance sheet, Q1 2026, has not yet arrived, there is still room for oil prices to decline this year [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Affected by the pessimistic sentiment from the OPEC November report, fuel oil prices followed the cost side down significantly [2] - The main support for high-sulfur fuel oil comes from the supply risk caused by the constraints on Russian refinery capacity, especially with the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, the continuous production increase by OPEC+ has led to an increase in high-sulfur resources in the Middle East, offsetting some of the impact. On the demand side, the power generation peak season in the Middle East has ended, the Palestine-Israel conflict has eased, and the market expects the first batch of crude oil quotas in 2026 to be issued ahead of schedule, which may further weaken the feedstock demand of local refineries [2] - The low-sulfur market benefits from the alleviation of supply pressure due to unstable overseas refinery operations. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has pushed up the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel, providing support for low-sulfur fuel oil from the perspective of production switching. In the fourth quarter, it is the peak season for marine fuel, and the phased improvement in Sino-US trade relations has improved the fundamentals of low-sulfur fuel oil compared to the third quarter. The previously arranged strategy of widening the high-low sulfur spread has been gradually realized, and timely profit-taking can be considered [2] Asphalt - Against the backdrop of a sharp drop in crude oil prices today, the decline of asphalt has slowed down, and the 2601 contract has some support at 3,000 yuan/ton [3] - The lower-than-expected shipment volume not only disproves the expectation of rush construction demand in the final year of the "14th Five-Year Plan" but also sends a negative signal that demand is lower than the same period last year. This week, the destocking of commercial inventories has shown signs of slowing down, and the year-on-year increase in social inventories has widened after reaching an inflection point at the end of October. In the medium and long term, the bearish fundamentals still suppress the BU [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The international liquefied gas market has been strong recently, with tight supply of imported resources [4] - The improved profitability of butane dehydrogenation units has boosted the enthusiasm of downstream chemical enterprises to start operations, and the significant cooling in many places has improved the demand for combustion. The inventory rates of refineries and ports have decreased. The tightening of supply and demand has supported the LPG to fluctuate upward [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Not clearly indicated, but the operation suggestion is to wait and see [2] - Pulp: One star, representing a bullish bias, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Sugar: Not clearly indicated, but the price is expected to remain weak [3] - Apple: Not clearly indicated, but short - term prices are expected to remain strong [4] - Log: Not clearly indicated, but the operation suggestion is to wait and see [7] - 20 - rubber, Natural rubber, Butadiene rubber: One star, representing a bullish bias, but limited operability on the trading floor [1][5] Core Views - The prices of different soft commodities show different trends. Factors such as supply, demand, cost, and inventory influence their prices. The report provides corresponding operation suggestions for each commodity [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices declined slightly, with a risk of short - term downward break. New cotton cost provides some support, but price increases face hedging pressure. The cotton yarn market is stable with stable demand. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Brazilian production data in mid - October was neutral. Domestic sugar prices are weakly oscillating. The market's focus is on the next season's production estimate. Sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - Futures prices rose significantly. The inventory decreased year - on - year. Short - term prices are strong, but the long - term de - stocking situation is the key trading point [4] 20 - rubber, Natural rubber, Synthetic rubber - Futures prices of natural rubber and 20 - rubber rose, and butadiene rubber futures prices rose slightly. Supply pressure is easing, demand is slowly increasing, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [5] Pulp - Pulp futures prices continued to rise. The inventory decreased. Short - term upward space may be limited, but there is a risk of a short squeeze. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously [6] Log - Futures prices are weakly operating. Supply may remain low, demand supports prices, and low inventory also provides some support. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ★★★ [1] - Hot-rolled Coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to continue its oscillatory pattern in the short term, with the demand outlook remaining pessimistic but the downside supported by moderately loose macro policies [2]. - Iron ore is predicted to oscillate mainly, as the market starts to trade the reality of a marginally looser fundamental situation [3]. - Coke and coking coal prices are likely to show a moderately strong oscillatory trend, given the ample supply of carbon elements and the weakening downstream demand [4][5]. - Silicomanganese has strong support at the price bottom, despite the continuous decline in hot metal production and the slow accumulation of inventory [6]. - Ferrosilicon prices are expected to be more likely to rise than fall, considering the cost increase and the resilient overall demand [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures market was mainly oscillatory, with thread steel slightly stronger than hot-rolled coil [2]. - This week, the apparent demand for thread steel decreased slightly, production declined synchronously, and inventory continued to fall [2]. - The demand for hot-rolled coil stabilized, production continued to decline, and the pace of inventory accumulation slowed down [2]. - Hot metal production dropped from its high level, and the downstream's ability to absorb the output was insufficient [2]. - Real estate investment continued to decline significantly, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to fall [2]. - Steel exports declined from their high level, and the overall domestic demand remained weak [2]. Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures market oscillated, and the basis has been relatively high recently [3]. - Globally, iron ore shipments were slightly stronger than the same period last year, and the Simandou extension mine officially started production, but the short-term production capacity was limited [3]. - The domestic arrival volume remained at a high level for the same period, port inventory continued to increase, and there were some structural changes in Australian ore inventory [3]. - In the off-season, steel demand declined, steel mills' losses intensified, and there was room for further reduction in hot metal production [3]. Coke - Coke prices oscillated during the day, and the downstream's acceptance of the fourth round of price increases was poor [4]. - Coking profits were average, and daily production decreased slightly [4]. - Coke inventory decreased slightly, with downstream buyers purchasing on a small scale as needed [4]. - Traders' purchasing willingness was average [4]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices oscillated during the day, and the daily import volume from Mongolia remained high [5]. - The production of coking coal mines decreased slightly, and the spot auction transactions were normal with stable prices [5]. - Terminal inventory increased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory increased slightly compared to the previous period [5]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese prices oscillated during the day, and the first-round inquiry price from a large steel mill in the north was 5,750 yuan/ton, compared with the October tender price of 5,820 yuan/ton [6]. - Hot metal production continued to decline, and the weekly production of silicomanganese decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level [6]. - Silicomanganese inventory was slowly accumulating, and the Comilog's forward manganese ore quotation increased slightly compared to the previous period [6]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated during the day, and hot metal production continued to decline [7]. - Export demand rose to around 40,000 tons, with a marginal impact [7]. - The production of magnesium metal increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand increased marginally, with overall demand remaining resilient [7]. - Ferrosilicon supply remained at a high level, and the on-balance-sheet inventory continued to decline [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The long - term upward trend of gold and silver prices is due to the continuous and irreversible decline of the US dollar's intrinsic value, including the decline of its internal and external purchasing power and coercive force. The rise of gold and silver prices represents the historical loss of the US dollar's intrinsic value, and this upward trend has an inherent logical continuity [2][3][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Condition - As of November 12, 2025, the spot and futures prices of silver hit a new high. The domestic price reached 12,500 yuan per kilogram, and Comex silver was close to $54 per ounce. Silver outperformed gold, and there was a new logic that silver might become the "people's monetary metal" in Europe and the US. The short - term trigger might be the news of the US government's vote to end the shutdown, while the long - term trend has stable driving factors [2]. Traditional Gold Analysis Framework and Its Break - Before 2024, the discussion of gold prices mainly revolved around the US dollar and US Treasury bond yields. In the context of relatively stable total liquidity, US Treasury bond yields are the cost of holding gold, so higher yields suppress gold prices. In the stage of loose liquidity, investment institutions may increase their holdings of both gold and US Treasury bonds, leading to an inverse relationship between gold prices and US Treasury bond yields [2]. - Since 2022, the Fed's interest rate hikes have led to an increase in real interest rates and a short - term adjustment in gold prices. As US inflation rises, dollar - denominated assets tend to be bubble - like, and the credit of US Treasury bonds is questioned. Governments' reserve adjustment operations may involve selling US dollar assets (US Treasury bonds) and buying gold. This has led to a situation where gold prices are strong and US Treasury bond yields are rising, breaking the traditional analysis framework [3]. US Dollar's Intrinsic Value and Its Loss - Gold has a strong currency attribute. It is mainly denominated in US dollars, and at the same time, it measures the intrinsic value of the US dollar. The historical rise of gold prices actually represents the historical loss of the US dollar's intrinsic value [3]. - The US dollar's internal and external purchasing power has been in an irreversible decline in recent years. The internal purchasing power can be measured by CPI growth, and the external purchasing power has declined due to factors such as resource protectionism in South America, the decline of US influence on energy prices, and trade conflicts. However, the US dollar index has remained relatively stable, which is due to the currency illusion caused by the foreign exchange pricing system. The US dollar index is a relative indicator, while gold and silver can mark the loss of the US dollar's intrinsic value [4][6]. - The US dollar is a credit currency, and its credit is based on its coercive force in the global scope, which is supported by military, political, diplomatic, and economic capabilities. Since 2018, the decline of its coercive force globally is an important background for the loss of the US dollar's intrinsic value [7]. Historical Preference for Precious Metals - According to Keynes' theory, gold and silver as metallic currencies have a long - standing place in people's minds, and only in a few periods of "intellectually stubborn laissez - faire" could people get rid of their dependence on gold and silver [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities including energy, metals, and agricultural products, and provides investment suggestions based on supply - demand dynamics, policy impacts, and market sentiment [1][2][3] - Different commodities are expected to have different price trends, such as some in a downward trend, some in an upward trend, and others in a volatile pattern Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC's November report adjusted the balance sheet from shortage to balance, and the market is pessimistic. There is still room for the oil price to decline this year, and short - selling opportunities on price rebounds are worth attention [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is becoming more abundant, while low - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure is relieved. The strategy of expanding the high - low sulfur spread can be gradually closed [21] - **Asphalt**: The demand is lower than expected, and the inventory de - stocking is slowing down. Fundamental factors are negatively affecting the price [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The international market is strong, supply is tight, and demand from both chemical and combustion sectors is improving. It is expected to be in a strong - side volatile pattern [23] - **Urea**: Affected by the export quota news, the price rebounded, but the domestic supply - demand is still loose, and the price may fall after the market sentiment calms down [24] - **Methanol**: The port is accumulating inventory, and the traditional downstream demand is weak. It may be under pressure in the short term, but it may rebound due to low valuation [25] Metals - **Precious Metals**: With the possible end of the US government shutdown and the expected change in the Fed's policy, precious metals are rebounding, and attention should be paid to the resistance at previous highs [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in December. Wait for the social inventory data this week and pay attention to demand signals. Options trading strategies are suggested [3] - **Aluminum**: The price is relatively underestimated and is in a strong - side trend. The long - term supply - demand is expected to tighten, but the current fundamentals are stable. Pay attention to the resistance at 22,000 yuan and capital movements [4] - **Zinc**: The zinc ingot export window is open, and the low inventory supports the outer market. The domestic supply is expected to decrease, and the bottom support of Shanghai zinc is strong [7] - **Lead**: The demand for lead - acid batteries is expected to improve, and the price may rise. The low inventory supports the price in the short term [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The nickel industry is in an over - supply situation, and the price is weakening [9] - **Tin**: The market is gambling on the current tight supply and the expected supply increase in the long - term. The domestic capital is actively entering the market [10] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The downstream demand is increasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the ore price is rising. It is expected to be in a strong - side volatile pattern in the short term [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: The production is expected to decline in November, and the cost may be supported in winter. The price will continue to fluctuate in the short term [12] - **Polysilicon**: The market is in a supply - demand double - weak situation, and the price will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [13] - **Ferroalloys** - **Manganese Silicon**: The demand is decreasing, the production is still at a high level, and the inventory is slowly increasing. The price has strong bottom support [18] - **Silicon Iron**: The demand has some resilience, the supply is at a high level, and the cost increase may lead to a price rebound [19] Building Materials - **Steel**: The demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils is weakening, and the inventory change is different. The market may continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to environmental protection restrictions [14] - **Iron Ore**: The supply is slightly stronger than last year, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to be volatile [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The downstream demand is decreasing, and the price may be in a strong - side volatile pattern [16][17] Chemicals - **Benzene & Its Derivatives**: The supply of pure benzene may increase, and the demand is average. The price may be in a short - term consolidation and a mid - term decline. The supply of styrene may increase, and the demand is weak [26][27] - **Polyolefins**: The supply of polypropylene, plastic, and propylene is excessive, and the demand is weak. The price may be under pressure [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The supply of PVC is high, and the demand is low, and the price is in a low - level pattern. The demand for caustic soda is insufficient, and the price is weak [29] - **PX & PTA**: The supply - demand of the industrial chain is expected to decline, and the PTA inventory change is uncertain [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. A short - selling strategy is recommended [31] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: The demand for short - fiber and bottle - chip may weaken, and the price is mainly driven by cost [32] Agricultural Products - **Grains** - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The fourth - quarter soybean supply is sufficient. Pay attention to the USDA's November report and potential long - buying opportunities after Sino - US trade eases [36] - **Corn**: The production is expected to increase, the selling progress is slower than expected, and the price may continue to be weak at the bottom [40] - **Oils** - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Soybean oil is supported by the loss of import soybean crushing profit. Palm oil is in a high - inventory situation, and its price trend depends on future supply - demand [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The supply shortage of rapeseed is expected to ease, and the price is under short - term pressure [38] - **Others** - **Cotton**: The new cotton cost provides support, but the demand is average. The price may be in a volatile pattern [43] - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar production in Guangxi is expected to be good [44] - **Apples**: The inventory is down year - on - year, but the quality is poor, and the de - stocking speed may be affected. A short - selling strategy is recommended [45] - **Wood**: The low inventory supports the price, and it is recommended to wait and see [46] - **Paper Pulp**: The inventory is decreasing, and the overseas price is strong. The short - term upward space may be limited [47] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market is in a high - level volatile pattern. The end of the US government shutdown boosts market sentiment. Focus on technology, advanced manufacturing, consumption, and cyclical sectors [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bond futures are rising, and the yield curve steepening is expected to end [49]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Fuel oil: Not clearly defined by star rating in a standard way in the given context, but analysis provided [1][2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly defined by star rating in a standard way in the given context, but analysis provided [2] - Asphalt: Not clearly defined by star rating in a standard way in the given context, but analysis provided [1][3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ (indicating a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends and investment opportunities of various energy products including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and liquefied petroleum gas. It provides insights into supply, demand, price movements, and suggests corresponding investment strategies based on different product fundamentals [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Categories Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the SC12 contract rising 1.52% intraday. There is still downside potential for oil prices this year as the oil price spread and spot premium have weakened since November and the most relaxed balance sheet quarter (Q1 next year) is yet to come. However, short - term support exists due to the resolution of the US government shutdown and geopolitical concerns. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil: Although supported by geopolitical situations, the increase in Middle - East high - sulfur supplies due to OPEC+ production increases and the entry into the off - season for Middle - East refining and power generation demand, along with the possible early issuance of 2026 crude oil quotas, will lead to a looser supply [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Supply pressure has eased. There is uncertainty about the resumption of the Kuwait Azur refinery, and there are expectations of reduced low - sulfur arrivals in the Singapore market. The strong overseas diesel crack spreads support low - sulfur supply, and demand is also favorable. Consider gradually taking profits on the previous strategy of widening the high - low sulfur spread [2] Asphalt - The rebound in crude oil today drove asphalt to stop falling, with the 2601 contract rising 0.86%. The poor shipment volume not only disproves the "14th Five - Year Plan" end - of - term construction demand expectation but also signals that demand is lower than the same period last year. The slowdown in commercial inventory drawdown and the increase in the year - on - year difference in social inventory are negative factors for the asphalt market [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The international liquefied gas market has been strong recently, with tight import supplies. The improvement in butane dehydrogenation device profitability has boosted downstream chemical enterprise operating rates, and the significant temperature drop in many places has increased combustion - end demand. With the decrease in refinery and port storage rates, LPG is expected to fluctuate strongly [4]