1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals continued to adjust. The U.S. postponed the release of September's non - farm payrolls, which increased by 119,000, exceeding expectations and the previous value. The unemployment rate rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%. The weekly initial jobless claims were 223,000, lower than expected and remaining at a low level, showing employment resilience. However, the October non - farm and OPI data will not be released, and the November data will be postponed to mid - November, meaning there will be a lack of key data for reference before the next Fed meeting. Fed officials have significant differences in their recent statements, and the market's bets on a December rate cut have been fluctuating. On Friday, the New York Fed President said there was still room for interest rate adjustment, increasing the implied probability of a rate cut in the interest rate market to around 70%. Geopolitically, the U.S. proposed a 28 - point Ukraine peace plan, but some key terms were opposed by European allies, and multi - party negotiations will continue. Last week, NVIDIA's strong earnings initially supported the U.S. stock market, but then the U.S. stocks significantly corrected, and concerns about the bubble still exist. In the short term, there are a lot of long and short news in the market, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels. Attention should be paid to the directional breakthrough in the technical aspect [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Geopolitical Situation - **Ukraine - Russia Conflict**: U.S. and Ukrainian representatives said the Geneva talks "made progress"; Zelensky said the U.S. peace plan was expected to incorporate Ukraine's core interests. Europe proposed a counter - proposal to the 28 - point plan. U.S. and Ukraine are discussing Zelensky's visit to the U.S. this week. U.S. Treasury Secretary said Trump was pressuring Russia to end the conflict and was confident in the progress of the peace process. Trump thought November 27 was a suitable deadline for Ukraine to accept the peace agreement [2] 3.2 Fed's Attitude - **Interest Rate Policy**: Williams believes there is still room for a rate cut in the near term; Collins thinks it is necessary to be cautious about a December rate cut but expects further rate cuts in the future; Milan will support a 25 - basis - point rate cut if his vote is crucial; Logan believes the Fed needs to "temporarily keep interest rates unchanged" with inflation still high and the labor market generally balanced [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - No clear core view is presented in the provided text. The report mainly offers data on various financial products' prices, price changes, implied volatilities (IV), and related quantile information over specific time - periods. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 General Information - The report covers multiple financial products including 50ETF, various 300ETFs (Shanghai, Shenzhen), Shanghai and Shenzhen CSI 500ETFs, ChiNext ETF, Shenzhen 100ETF,科创50ETF,科创板50ETF, 300 Index, 1000 Index, and Shanghai 50 Index [1][6][9][17][26][33][43][52][57][69][74][82]. - The current month's contracts for most products are 2 days from expiration, while for 300 Index, 1000 Index, and Shanghai 50 Index, they are 19 days from expiration [1][6][9][17][26][33][43][52][57][69][74][82]. 3.2 Price and Price Change - For 50ETF, on 2025/11/24, the price was 3.094 with a - 0.23% change from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai 300ETF had a price of 4.557 on 2025/11/24 with a - 0.15% change [6]. - Shenzhen 300ETF's price was 4.710 on 2025/11/24 with a - 0.06% change [9]. - Shanghai CSI 500ETF's price was 6.970 on 2025/11/24 with a - 2.79% change [17]. - Shenzhen CSI 500ETF's price was 2.787 on 2025/11/24 with a 0.72% change [26]. - ChiNext ETF's price was 2.908 on 2025/11/24 with a 0.14% change [33]. - Shenzhen 100ETF's price was 3.269 on 2025/11/24 with a - 0.09% change [43]. - 科创50ETF's price was 1.360 on 2025/11/24 with a 0.67% change [52]. - 科创板50ETF's price was 1.317 on 2025/11/24 with a 0.69% change [57]. - 300 Index's price was 4448.048 on 2025/11/24 with a - 0.12% change [69]. - 1000 Index's price was 7156.409 on 2025/11/24 with a 1.26% change [74]. - Shanghai 50 Index's price was 2950.562 on 2025/11/24 with a - 0.18% change [82]. 3.3 Implied Volatility (IV) - 50ETF's 2025/11/24 IV: 12.79% (current month), 14.13% (next month) [1]. - Shanghai 300ETF's 2025/11/24 IV: 15.05% (current month), 15.91% (next month) [6]. - Shenzhen 300ETF's 2025/11/24 IV: 16.58% (current month), 16.34% (next month) [9]. - Shanghai CSI 500ETF's 2025/11/24 IV: 16.76% (current month), 20.41% (next month) [17]. - Shenzhen CSI 500ETF's 2025/11/24 IV: 18.28% (current month), 20.69% (next month) [26]. - ChiNext ETF's 2025/11/24 IV: 25.93% (current month), 27.54% (next month) [33]. - Shenzhen 100ETF's 2025/11/24 IV: 21.61% (current month), 19.15% (next month) [43]. - 科创50ETF's 2025/11/24 IV: 30.31% (current month), 29.20% (next month) [52]. - 科创板50ETF's 2025/11/24 IV: 27.58% (current month), 29.29% (next month) [57]. - 300 Index's 2025/11/24 IV: 16.77% (current month), 17.42% (next month) [69]. - 1000 Index's 2025/11/24 IV: 20.26% (current month), 21.12% (next month) [74]. - Shanghai 50 Index's 2025/11/24 IV: 14.76% (current month), 48.90% (next month) [82]. 3.4 IV Quantiles - For 50ETF, the current - month IV quantiles in the past 1 - year and 2 - year are provided, such as 28.90% and 22.40% in the past 1 - year [1]. - Similar IV quantile data for other products like Shanghai 300ETF, Shenzhen 300ETF, etc., are also presented [6][9]. 3.5 Skew Index - The skew index for each product's main contract month is given, for example, 105.84 for 50ETF on the current day [5]. - Other products like Shanghai 300ETF, Shenzhen 300ETF also have their respective skew index data [8][14]. 3.6 Other Information - There are also data on the term structure of IV, intraday trends of at - the - money (ATM) IV for different months, option smile curves, price and position - volume PCR trends, and implied volatility and trading volume trends for each product [3][4][5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market shows a pattern of overall range - bound fluctuations, with policy expectations providing support but weak demand restricting the upside [2]. - The iron ore market is expected to be mainly range - bound, with its fundamentals becoming marginally looser [3]. - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to experience weak - side oscillations [4][6]. - The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are in a state of oscillation, with the bottom - support expectations for silicomanganese shifting downward and the bottom - support strength of ferrosilicon facing a test [7][8]. Summary by Commodity Steel - The steel futures market rebounded today. Thread apparent demand improved, production increased, and inventory continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil demand recovered, production rose slightly, and inventory started to fall. Steel mills are in a loss state, and there is a high possibility of further blast - furnace production cuts. The overall domestic demand is weak, and steel exports have declined from their highs. Policy expectations support the market, but weak demand restricts the upside [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market showed a strong - side oscillation today, and the basis has weakened recently. Global iron ore shipments decreased significantly compared to the previous period but are still stronger than the same period last year. Shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased, with a relatively larger drop in Australia and its shipments to China. Shipments from non - mainstream countries remained high. The domestic arrival volume rebounded to a high for the year, and port inventory continued to accumulate. Iron ore fundamentals are becoming marginally looser, and the market is expected to be range - bound [3]. Coke - The coke price oscillated during the day. Coking profits are average, and daily production has been slightly decreasing. Coke inventory increased slightly, with downstream procurement on an as - needed basis and little change in inventory. Traders' purchasing willingness is average. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream hot - metal production is still at a high level, but inventory has decreased slightly. The total coking - coal inventory decreased slightly compared to the previous period, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. The coke futures price is at a premium, and the price is likely to oscillate weakly [4]. Coking Coal - The coking - coal price oscillated weakly during the day. Coking - coal mine production decreased slightly, spot auction transactions were average, and transaction prices mainly declined. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream hot - metal production is still at a high level, but inventory has decreased slightly. The total coking - coal inventory decreased slightly compared to the previous period, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. The coking - coal futures price is at a discount to Mongolian coal, and the price is likely to oscillate weakly [6]. Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price oscillated during the day. The market's expectation of coal - mine supply guarantee has increased, leading to an expected decline in power costs and chemical - coke prices. On the demand side, hot - metal production has rebounded to a high level. Silicomanganese weekly production decreased slightly but is still at a relatively high level, and inventory is slowly increasing. Spot manganese - ore prices showed mixed trends, with high - grade oxidized ore rising slightly and semi - carbonate ore falling slightly. Manganese - ore inventory increased slightly, and the contradiction is not prominent. The expected bottom - support level has shifted downward [7]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price oscillated during the day. The market's expectation of coal - mine supply guarantee has increased, leading to an expected decline in power costs and blue - charcoal prices. On the demand side, hot - metal production has rebounded to a high level. Export demand has declined to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased month - on - month, and secondary demand has increased marginally. Overall demand still has resilience. Ferrosilicon supply remains at a high level, and the bottom - support strength will be tested [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - From November 17th to November 21st, the US September non - farm data showed an unexpected increase in new employment but a higher unemployment rate. The US dollar index rose weekly, and global and domestic stocks, bonds, and commodities all declined to varying degrees. In general, in terms of US - dollar valuation, bonds > commodities > stocks. Investors' concerns about the Japanese market and AI have increased, and the volatility of major asset prices may increase. Attention should be paid to the release of US inflation data [3][6][19]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Global Major Asset Overall Performance: Stocks, Bonds, and Commodities All Declined - **Global Stock Market Overview**: Due to the uncertainty of US dollar interest rate cuts and the increasing concerns about AI, global major stock markets generally declined. The Asia - Pacific region had the largest decline, and emerging markets performed worse than developed markets. The VIX index rose significantly weekly [8]. - **Global Bond Market Overview**: The September non - farm data failed to eliminate the differences among Fed officials, increasing the uncertainty of US dollar interest rate cuts. The yields of medium - and long - term US bonds declined, and the yield of the 10 - year US bond fell by 8BP to 4.06% weekly. The bond market declined weekly. Globally, credit bonds > high - yield bonds > national bonds [15]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview**: The game between the large - scale fiscal stimulus policy and the normalization of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy caused market concerns. The Japanese yen depreciated rapidly against the US dollar, and the US dollar index rose weekly. Most major non - US currencies declined against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated within a narrow range. The US dollar index rose 0.87% weekly [16]. - **Global Commodity Market Overview**: The US proposed a "28 - point" new plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the possible framework agreement between Russia and Ukraine led to a significant weekly decline in international oil prices. Precious metal prices continued to consolidate at high levels. The prices of major agricultural products rose, and non - ferrous metal prices generally declined [18]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance: Stocks and Commodities Declined, and the Bond Market Fluctuated - **Domestic Stock Market Overview**: Affected by the overseas market, major broad - based A - share indexes generally declined. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared to the previous week. In terms of style, large - cap blue - chip stocks were relatively resilient. In terms of sectors, power equipment and new energy, basic chemicals, etc. saw large declines. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.9% weekly [20]. - **Domestic Bond Market Overview**: From November 17th to November 21st, the central bank's net investment in the open market was 43.4 billion yuan. The capital market was relatively tight. The bond market fluctuated weekly. Overall, credit bonds > corporate bonds > national bonds [23]. - **Domestic Commodity Market Overview**: The domestic commodity market declined weekly. Among the major commodity sectors, precious metals had the largest decline [24]. 3.3 Major Asset Price Outlook: Pay Attention to the Release of US Inflation Data - Recently, investors' concerns about the Japanese market and AI have increased, and the volatility of major asset prices may increase. Attention should be paid to the release of US inflation data [3][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals continued to adjust. The delayed - released September non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 119,000, exceeding expectations and the previous value, but the unemployment rate rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%. The weekly initial jobless claims were 223,000, lower than expected and remaining at a low level, showing employment resilience. However, the October non - farm and OPI data won't be released, and the November data will be postponed to mid - November, meaning there will be a lack of key data reference before the next Fed meeting. Fed officials' recent statements have significant differences, and the market's bets on a December rate cut have been fluctuating. On Friday, the New York Fed President's statement that there is still room for interest rate adjustment increased the implied probability of a rate cut in the interest rate market to around 70%. Geopolitically, the US proposed a 28 - point Ukraine peace plan, which was opposed by some European allies, and multi - party games will continue. The strong Nvidia earnings last week supported the US stocks, but then the US stocks sharply corrected, and there are still concerns about the bubble. Short - term market news is complex, and precious metals are in high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the directional breakthrough in the technical aspect [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Russia - Ukraine Conflict - US and Ukrainian representatives said the Geneva talks "made progress", and Rubio said Trump was satisfied with the talks report. Zelensky stated that the US peace plan is expected to incorporate Ukraine's core interests. Europe put forward a counter - proposal to the 28 - point plan, including the US providing NATO Article 5 - style protection, Ukraine not using military means to recover occupied territories, territorial negotiations based on the current military contact line, and allowing Ukraine to join NATO with NATO's consensus. US and Ukrainian officials are discussing Zelensky's visit to the US this week. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Trump is pressuring Russia to end the conflict and is confident that the Russia - Ukraine peace process is advancing. Trump thinks November 27 is a suitable deadline for Ukraine to accept the peace agreement terms [2] 3.2 Fed - Williams believes there is still room for a rate cut in the near term. Collins thinks there is a reason to be cautious about a December rate cut and expects further rate cuts in the future. Milan will support a 25 - basis - point rate cut if his vote is decisive. Logan believes the Fed needs to "temporarily keep interest rates unchanged" when inflation is still high and the labor market is generally balanced [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a bearish trend, with a driving force for price decline but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] Core Viewpoints - The progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan negotiation and the Venezuela geopolitical risk are the key factors affecting the energy market this week. The energy market is generally under pressure due to factors such as geopolitical situation, supply - demand imbalance, and the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts [2][3][4] Summary by Categories Crude Oil - The Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation has made progress, and the Fed's wavering attitude towards a December interest rate cut has pressured crude oil and other risk assets. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, so the previous bearish strategy should be continued [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The absolute price of fuel oil is dragged down by the cost side. High - sulfur fuel oil has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with limited impact of geopolitical factors on Russian exports and high - level exports from the Middle East to Asia during the off - peak power generation season. The demand for feedstock in China is expected to gradually decline. Although the US sanctions on Russia on November 21 may cause short - term fluctuations, the medium - term supply surplus will suppress the market. Low - sulfur fuel oil was previously supported by unstable overseas refineries, but the partial restart of the Azur refinery on November 29 and the possible increase in supply from the Dangote RFGC device maintenance at the end of December will increase the subsequent pressure [3] Asphalt - The price in the northern market remains stable supported by some refineries switching to produce residual oil and the terminal project rush - demand, while the price in the southern market has been declining due to abundant resource supply and refinery shipment pressure, narrowing the north - south price difference. The weekly shipment volume has been below 400,000 tons since the middle of the month, at a low level in the same period in the past four years. In the short term, the main contract on the trading floor is supported at 3,000 yuan/ton, but the weak crude oil trend still suppresses the asphalt market sentiment, and with the expectation of supply increase, the asphalt is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly [4]

Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias with a driving force for price increase but limited operability in the market [1] - Sugar: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Apple: ★★★, representing a clear upward trend and good investment prospects [1] - Timber: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, with a bullish bias but limited market operability [1] - 20 - day Rubber: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balanced state with poor market operability [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term balanced state and poor market operability [1] Core Views - The prices of different soft commodities show various trends. Some are in a state of shock, some are expected to be weak, and some are supported by certain factors. The investment strategies vary from commodity to commodity, including temporary observation, being bullish on certain commodities, and looking for cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded sharply. New cotton cost provides support but also limits price increase. It may continue range - bound. Despite large new cotton production increase, low commercial inventory and fast sales support the market. As of November 20, national cumulative processed lint was 4631000 tons, up 812000 tons year - on - year. As of November 15, commercial cotton inventory was 3639700 tons, down 204300 tons year - on - year. Cotton yarn market trading was weak. Suggestion: temporarily observe [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production data in the second half of October was bearish. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand started the new season with good production expectations. In China, Zhengzhou sugar was weak. In October, syrup imports decreased year - on - year, but sugar imports were high, with supply pressure. The market focus shifts to the next season's output estimate. Sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - Futures prices fluctuated. In Shandong, apple acquisition is almost over. As of November 20, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 7.33 million tons, down 12.73% year - on - year. The market trading logic shifts to sales expectations. Due to high acquisition prices and poor apple quality, there is a high sentiment of reluctance to sell, which may affect the de - stocking speed. Pay attention to de - stocking [4] 20 - day Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Natural rubber RU futures prices rose slightly, 20 - day rubber IR and butadiene rubber BR futures prices fluctuated. Global natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, but Yunnan in China is gradually entering the non - production period. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased. Domestic tire operating rate decreased, and tire enterprise inventories increased. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory increased to 468900 tons. Suggestion: RU is bullish, NR and BR should be observed, and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5] Pulp - Pulp futures prices declined slightly. As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.173 million tons, up 3.0% from the previous period. Supply is loose, demand is weak, and the basis has narrowed. Suggestion: temporarily observe [6] Logs - Futures prices fluctuated. In November, the price of New Zealand radiata pine continued to rise, while domestic spot prices were weak. Traders' import willingness declined. Port outbound volume is over 60000 cubic meters, and inventory is low. Suggestion: temporarily observe [7]

Report Information - Report Title: Commodity Weekly Report - Report Date: November 24, 2025 - Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures - Investment Consulting Number: Z0019749 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03090299 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The commodity market was under pressure last week, with an overall decline of 1.81%. All sectors closed lower, led by precious metals with a 4.07% drop. The Fed's wavering stance on interest rate cuts may lead to short - term volatility in the commodity market [2]. - The Fed's hawkish remarks tightened dollar liquidity, causing risk assets to fall. However, the weakening yen and a "dovish" speech by New York Fed President Williams on Friday improved market sentiment, though its sustainability is uncertain [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: The commodity market declined 1.81% last week. All sectors fell, with precious metals down 4.07%, energy and chemicals down 2.36%, agriculture down 1.55%, non - ferrous metals down 1.52%, and black metals down 0.25% [2][6]. - **Top - performing and Under - performing Varieties**: Iron ore, corn, and hot - rolled coils led the gainers with increases of 1.68%, 0.46%, and 0.43% respectively. Coking coal, silver, and pulp were the top losers, dropping 7.47%, 5.62%, and 4.6% respectively [2][6]. - **Volatility and Capital Flow**: The decline in the 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market narrowed, and the volatility of the precious metals sector further decreased. The overall market capital scale dropped significantly, with net outflows in all sectors, mainly concentrated in non - ferrous and precious metal varieties [2][6]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: US economic data showed resilience, and Fed officials had different views. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in December is high, and the sector may remain volatile at high levels in the short term [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The release of lagging US economic data cooled the expectation of interest rate cuts, pushing up the dollar index and pressuring the sector. However, China's electricity consumption growth in October indicated economic resilience. The supply - demand structure is still loose, and the sector may fluctuate in the short term [3]. - **Black Metals**: The apparent demand for rebar improved last week, production increased, and inventory decreased. Iron - making still showed a seasonal decline, and steel mills continued to operate at a loss. The probability of further blast - furnace production cuts is high. The inventory of iron ore ports continued to accumulate, and the supply of coking coal tightened marginally. The sector may face pressure in the short term [3]. - **Energy**: The US is promoting the Russia - Ukraine agreement, suppressing the geopolitical risk premium. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, and oil prices may weaken in the short term [3]. - **Chemicals**: Positive news such as potential disruptions to PX imports, planned shutdowns of Korean toluene disproportionation plants, and PX flowing to the US initially boosted the market. However, the decline in oil prices and gasoline crack spreads and the drop in terminal weaving loads led to a weakening demand expectation, and the industry chain may fluctuate in the short term [3]. - **Agriculture**: The La Nina phenomenon is ongoing and is expected to last until the Northern Hemisphere winter. Attention should be paid to its impact on soybean production in Brazil and Argentina. Soybean meal may continue to adjust following US soybeans, and the oil and oil - seed sector may weaken in the short term [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had negative weekly returns. The total scale of gold ETFs was 223.739 billion yuan, with a 2.87% increase in share. The total trading volume was 1.297571899 billion, with an 8.02% decrease [35]. - **Other Commodity ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF, soybean - meal ETF, non - ferrous metal ETF, and silver fund also had different degrees of decline in weekly returns. The total scale of all commodity ETFs was 234.997 billion yuan, with a 2.67% increase in share, and the total trading volume was 2.005203321 billion, with a 1.41% increase [35].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Neutral (not explicitly stated in a clear rating system but based on the context of market analysis) [6] - Methanol: Consider buying the 5 - 9 month spread, but with caution [6] - Pure Benzene: Bearish bias, consider option configuration [3] - Styrene: Price supported but limited upside [3] - Polypropylene: Slight bearish due to supply increase and weak demand [2] - Plastic: Bearish due to increased supply and weak demand [2] - PVC: Follow cost - end changes, supply high and demand weak [7] - Caustic Soda: Weak operation, follow profit changes [7] - PX: Strong before new capacity, short - term supply - demand weakening [5] - PTA: Cost - driven, reduced inventory build - up expectation [5] - Ethylene Glycol: Short - term rebound expected but limited space [5] - Short Fiber: Price follows raw materials, no new investment pressure [5] - Bottle Chips: Cost - driven, long - term over - capacity pressure [5] - Soda Ash: Bullish short - term, oversupply long - term [8] - Glass: Limited downside, consider long - glass short - soda strategy [8] Core Views - The overall chemical market is complex, with different products showing various trends based on supply, demand, cost, and market sentiment factors. Some products have short - term bullish or bearish trends, while others face long - term challenges such as over - capacity [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Two - olefin futures contracts are fluctuating around the 5 - day moving average. Plastic and polypropylene futures are weak due to increased supply and weak demand. Polyethylene supply pressure increases with reduced maintenance and more shipments, and demand from downstream industries is weak. Polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand is limited [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures are weak, and the rebound is bearish. Consider option configuration. Styrene price is supported by tight supply - demand balance but has limited upside due to uncertain cost and demand support [3] Polyester - PX is strong before new capacity but short - term supply - demand is weakening. PTA is cost - driven with reduced inventory build - up expectation. Ethylene glycol has a short - term rebound expectation but limited space. Short fiber price follows raw materials, and bottle chips are cost - driven with long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol can consider buying the 5 - 9 month spread due to overseas production cuts and low valuation, but be cautious of weak reality. Urea supply is sufficient, and the market may return to a stalemate [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC has good export to India but weak domestic demand, and it may follow cost - end changes. Caustic soda is in a weak operation due to high supply and low demand [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is de - stocking and bullish short - term but oversupplied long - term. Glass has limited downside and can consider the long - glass short - soda strategy [8]

Report Investment Ratings - Index Futures: ☆☆☆ [1] - Treasury Bond Futures: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - As of the week ending November 21, index futures declined. IH2511 dropped 2.49%, IF2511 fell 3.38%, IC2511 decreased 5.17%, and IM2511 declined 5.02%. Geopolitical tensions and overseas tech - stock corrections, along with the weakening of the Fed's rate - cut expectations, pressured investors' risk appetite [1]. - The high - frequency macro - fundamental factor scores for index futures are: inflation indicator 8 points, liquidity indicator 8 points, valuation indicator 11 points, and market sentiment indicator 9 points. For treasury bond futures, the inflation indicator is 8 points, the liquidity indicator is 10 points, and the market sentiment indicator is 8 points [1]. - The weighted annualized basis rates (dividend - adjusted) of IH, IF, IC, and IM at the end of the period were - 3.35%, - 5.92%, - 9.19%, and - 9.89% respectively. The basis rates of IC and IM contracts were above the 50th percentile in the past year, showing significant divergence in the basis trends of index futures [1]. - The net value of the financial derivatives quantitative CTA strategy rose slightly by 0.21% last week. In the long - term, most economic data indicate weakening growth, pressuring index futures. In the short - term, high - frequency real estate and consumption remain weak, the exchange rate is at a low level, and the capital market remains relatively loose, resulting in a relatively limited short - term decline [1]. - For index futures, the risk appetite is at a six - month low, IF and IH are relatively neutral, and the overall comprehensive signal is below neutral. For treasury bond futures, the capital market remains loose, the market risk appetite is conducive to the bond market's recovery, but the stock - bond seesaw effect is not significant, and the bond market is insensitive to fundamental feedback. The position factor has declined, and institutional year - end allocation behavior has not yet emerged intensively, with the comprehensive signal in a neutral oscillation [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - fundamental High - frequency Factor Scores - Economic kinetic energy: The scores for index futures and treasury bond futures are 8 and 0 respectively (on a scale of 0 - 10). Different indicators such as blast furnace开工率, PTA开工率, etc., show various week - on - week changes, historical percentiles, and correlations with stock and bond indices [2]. - Inflation indicators: The scores for both index futures and treasury bond futures are 8 (on a scale of 0 - 10). Various inflation - related indicators like the vegetable basket product wholesale price index, coking coal index, etc., have different week - on - week changes, historical percentiles, and correlations with stock and bond indices [3]. - Liquidity: The score for index futures is 9 (on a scale of 0 - 10). Indicators such as DR007, DR001, etc., show different week - on - week changes, historical percentiles, and correlations with stock and bond indices [4]. - Index valuation: The score for index futures is 10 (on a scale of 0 - 10). Valuation indicators such as PE, PS, etc., have different week - on - week changes, historical percentiles, and correlations with stock indices [5]. - Market sentiment: For stock indices, the score is 9 (on a scale of 0 - 10), and for bonds, the score is 8 (on a scale of 0 - 10). Different sentiment - related indicators such as margin trading balances, bond yields, etc., show various week - on - week changes, historical percentiles, and correlations with stock and bond indices [6][7]. Strategy Introduction - The variety pool includes index futures and treasury bond futures. The short - term model focuses on market style, external factors, and capital market high - frequency financial data, while the long - term model focuses on market expectations and macro - economic low - frequency indicators. The position is synthesized based on institutional long and short positions [16]. - The comprehensive signal strength is weighted by three independent models (0 - 1). Contracts with the top 2 comprehensive signal strengths and values greater than or equal to 0.6 are considered for long positions, and those with the bottom 2 and values less than or equal to 0.4 are considered for short positions. Position data signals are shielded 7 days before delivery [17]. Treasury Bond Futures Cross - variety Arbitrage Strategy - The cross - variety arbitrage strategy is based on the resonance of signals from the fundamental three - factor model and the trend regression model. The fundamental three - factor model uses the Nelson - Siegel instantaneous forward - rate function, and signals are classified into three types: '1' (large spread may decrease), '0' (uncertain spread trend or oscillation), '- 1' (large spread may increase). The trend regression model filters signals, and trading occurs when there is resonance. In practice, a 1:1.8 ratio is used for the 10 - 5Y spread adjustment [20]. - For TF and T main contracts, different dates show different signals from the N - S model and the trend regression model [23].