Report Industry Investment Ratings - **豆一**: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market [1] - **豆油**: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market [1] - **标油**: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market [1] - **豆粕**: One red star, suggesting a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] - **菜油**: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market [1] - **菜粕**: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market [1] - **玉米**: White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market [1] - **生猪**: One red star, suggesting a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] - **鸡蛋**: One red star, suggesting a bullish bias but poor operability on the market [1] Report's Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including price trends, supply - demand situations, and future outlooks, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these analyses [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs [豆一] - The price of domestic soybeans shows high - level fluctuations. Short - term policies are conducive to price stability, and the spot price is stable [2] - The warehouse receipts of domestic soybeans are increasing. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans shows a sideways trend without a clear short - term trend [2] - Continuously monitor domestic soybean policies and market sentiment in the short term [2] [大豆&豆粕] - The main contract of Dalian soybean meal futures M2601 fluctuates strongly. US soybeans are expected to continue rising [3] - The tax rate for importing US soybeans in China has been changed to 13%, and commercial imports still have no price advantage, while policy - based purchases should be unaffected [3] - The estimated soybean arrivals from November to January next year are about 9.5 million tons, 7.5 million tons, and 5 million tons respectively, with sufficient supply in the fourth quarter [3] - Focus on the USDA November supply - demand report on Friday. Foreign media expect a slight decrease in US soybean yield, and the ending inventory data may be crucial [3] - Look for opportunities to go long at low prices after the relaxation of Sino - US trade [3] [豆油&棕榈油] - Rapeseed oil is still strong today, leading the market. Soybean oil rises slightly, and palm oil moves sideways [4] - The actual supply - demand situation of palm oil shows high inventory in Malaysia. The supply - demand situation in November needs to be monitored to guide price trends [4] - The near - end crushing profit of imported soybeans is damaged, which supports the price of soybean oil [4] - The oil - meal ratio shows that soybean oil is stronger than soybean meal this week. The price of palm oil moves sideways, and it is necessary to monitor its supply - demand situation and the trends of surrounding oils [4] [菜粕&菜油] - The main contracts of rapeseed futures increase positions slightly, continuing the pattern of strong oil and weak meal [6] - The short - term supply shortage sentiment caused by the suspension of rapeseed meal crushing in domestic coastal areas is gradually easing, and it is expected to be greatly alleviated after the arrival of Australian rapeseed [6] - The Canadian government has established a $372 million biofuel production incentive program, which boosts the demand outlook for rapeseed oil [6] - Canadian rapeseed continues the state of high crushing and low exports. Pay attention to the development of Sino - Canadian relations [6] - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term for rapeseed products [6] [玉米] - The Dalian corn futures 2601 contract rises first and then falls. The estimated corn output this season is 300 million tons, a 1.72% increase from the previous season [7] - The selling progress of corn in Northeast China is slower than expected, and the spot price is stable with a slight upward trend. The supply in Shandong continues to decrease, and the spot price is stable [7] - The price of wheat weakens due to the expected auction. The transfer of grain rights is not large, and the peak of new grain supply in Northeast China has not passed. The rebound height is expected to be limited [7] - The Dalian corn futures 01 contract may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [7] [生猪] - The pig futures market continues to trade the expectation of capacity reduction. The far - month contracts continue to rebound, and the near - month contracts fluctuate narrowly [8] - The spot price of pigs continues to decline weakly. The current rebound of the futures market is regarded as a post - bottoming rebound [8] - In the long - term, the bottom of the pig cycle often shows a double - bottom "W" shape. The low price in October is likely to be the first bottom, and there is a high probability of a second bottom in the first half of next year [8] [鸡蛋] - The egg futures price drops rapidly during the session, with a net increase of nearly 10,000 lots in funds and heavy trading volume [9] - The near - month contracts lead the decline, and the market switches from trading the capacity reduction expectation of far - month contracts to trading the logic that the spot price of eggs weakens after Double Eleven [9] - The spot price of eggs is stable in most regions and falls in some regions. It is recommended to try short positions at high prices [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not provided [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ (indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ (indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and liquefied petroleum gas, providing investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, geopolitical factors, and price trends [2][3][4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the SC12 contract rising 1.52% intraday. There is still downward room for oil prices this year, but short - term support exists. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the rebound [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil supply tends to be loose due to increased Middle - East high - sulfur sources and weakened feedstock demand. Low - sulfur fuel oil fundamentals have improved significantly compared to the third quarter. The strategy of widening the high - low sulfur spread can be gradually stopped for profit [2] Asphalt - The decline of asphalt stopped with the rebound of crude oil today, with the 2601 contract rising 0.86%. Fundamental negatives still suppress BU [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The international liquefied gas market has been strong recently. With the tightening of supply - demand margins, LPG is expected to fluctuate strongly [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In Q4 2025, the TC of zinc ore continued to decline, strengthening the expectation of domestic smelter production cuts. The opening of the zinc ingot export window reduced the pressure of domestic zinc ingot inventory accumulation. The high spread between the domestic and overseas markets attracted attention, with domestic smelters and traders actively seeking exports. The LME zinc has limited room for further significant upside. - There is a need for profit - taking of cross - market long - spread funds, while the participation enthusiasm of cross - market short - spread funds is currently limited. It is a good opportunity to enter cross - market short - spread trades as the inventory difference between domestic and overseas markets has shown signs of convergence, and the fundamentals no longer support the further expansion of the spread. The spread is expected to converge to the range of 1,000 - 1,500 yuan/ton. - The high - low rotation of funds has spread from the stock market to the futures market, and a rebound of oversold varieties can be expected. In Q4, Shanghai zinc is not recommended as a short - allocation. The rebound height is temporarily seen at the annual line of 23,200 yuan/ton. It is unlikely to rebound to the high - level range of 24,200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year unless the domestic deflation expectation is broken and overseas consumption exceeds expectations. - The price range of Shanghai zinc in Q4 is expected to be 22,200 - 23,200 yuan/ton, and the price range of LME zinc is 2,900 - 3,100 US dollars/ton. [73][74] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Price History and Current Situation - Historically, factors such as the European debt crisis, US QE policies, mine shortages, and changes in TC have affected zinc prices. In 2025, the zinc market has complex supply - demand and price relationships. The LME zinc inventory is 35,300 tons, SMM zinc inventory is 159,600 tons, and the smelter raw material inventory is 26 days. The LME 0 - 3 month premium is 117.04 US dollars. [5][21] - In 2025, from January to July, China's zinc ingot production was 3.8425 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.65%. From January to September, the output was 5.0685 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.83%. However, some overseas refineries have reduced production due to factors such as low TC and profit problems. In H1 2025, the overall output of major overseas refineries decreased by 89,900 tons year - on - year, a decline of 4.34%. [28][29][39] 3.2 Market Factors - **Supply - side factors**: New domestic mines such as Huoshaoyun, Russia's OZ mine, and Congo's Kipushi lead - zinc mine have been put into production, effectively alleviating the raw material constraints on domestic refineries. However, overseas refineries' profit recovery will lead to competition for mines between overseas and domestic refineries. [30][41] - **Demand - side factors**: The real estate market has shown signs of weakness, with a decline in real estate investment and a mixed situation in housing sales. The photovoltaic industry has passed the high - growth stage, and the growth rate of new installed capacity has slowed down. However, the export of galvanized sheets has increased, with the cumulative export of 10 - tariff - number galvanized sheets from January to September 2025 reaching 10.42 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.61%. [62][64][58] - **Policy factors**: The import and export tariffs of zinc products have been adjusted. For example, the export tariff of 0 zinc is 20%, but the provisional tariff in 2025 is 0%. The export of zinc ingots is subject to a 13% VAT, and the export tax rebate has been cancelled since 2008. [34][35] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Cross - market arbitrage**: Cross - market short - spread is recommended as the inventory difference between domestic and overseas markets is converging, and the fundamentals no longer support the further expansion of the spread. - **Unilateral trading**: For LME zinc, beware of sudden warehouse deliveries due to low inventory. The upside space above the 3,100 - dollar integer mark is limited, so short - allocation on rallies is recommended. For Shanghai zinc, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In Q4, short - allocation is not recommended. Look for short - allocation opportunities above 23,000 yuan/ton or short - term long positions on pullbacks. - **Inter - period trading**: Due to the weak current situation and unclear prospects for expectation repair, the inter - period spread is difficult to widen, maintaining a normal positive market structure, and there are no inter - period arbitrage opportunities. [74][75]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate futures has rebounded, with the January contract reaching a high of 88,000 yuan and closing at 86,500 yuan on November 11, a cumulative increase of over 20% since mid - October. The trading volume is high, and the open interest has reached a record high of nearly one million lots this year, but there are significant differences above 80,000 yuan [1]. - From the supply - demand perspective, positive factors are accumulating. Demand has unexpectedly reversed, with downstream price - increase factors spreading from top to bottom. The consumption of lithium carbonate is now driven by both power batteries and energy - storage batteries, and the proportion of energy - storage batteries has rapidly increased from less than 15% in 2023 to nearly one - third recently. Also, the desired inventory level has sharply increased, and despite high production, the weekly inventory has been decreasing [2]. - The main risk lies in policy - expectation changes in mines. The competitive supply pattern and high supply elasticity remain suppressing factors. The supply growth rate of lithium carbonate is expected to remain at around 30% in the next two years. With high overall inventory, physical goods are abundant, suppressing the price at high levels. The report is cautiously optimistic, placing the core price range at 75,000 - 95,000 yuan [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Condition - The lithium carbonate futures have rebounded to the previous anti - involution hype high. The January contract reached 88,000 yuan, closing at 86,500 yuan on November 11, up over 20% since mid - October. Trading volume is high, open interest has reached a record high this year, and there are significant differences above 80,000 yuan [1]. Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Demand Reversal**: Positive factors are accumulating. Demand has unexpectedly reversed, with downstream price - increase factors spreading. Phosphoric acid iron - lithium enterprises are ramping up production, and battery factory orders are increasing due to the progress of pure - electric heavy - truck projects, the peak season of traditional vehicle sales, and the strong demand for energy - storage batteries. The proportion of energy - storage batteries in lithium carbonate consumption has rapidly increased from less than 15% in 2023 to nearly one - third recently [2]. - **Inventory Increase**: Since September, the weekly domestic production of lithium carbonate has hit new highs, rising from 17,000 tons per week to 19,000 tons in late October. However, weekly inventory has been decreasing, indicating strong supply and demand. Since July, due to improved expectations from anti - involution, the inventory level has increased, driving short - to - medium - term demand and warming the spot market [2]. Market Risks and Future Trends - **Risk Points**: Market rumors of earlier - than - expected mine resumptions in Yichun led to a sharp drop in lithium prices to 78,000 yuan. Policy - expectation changes regarding mines will significantly affect market sentiment [4]. - **Supply Situation**: The competitive supply pattern and high supply elasticity are suppressing factors. The supply growth rate of lithium carbonate is expected to remain at around 30% in the next two years. The overall operating rate of lithium salt plants is high, and it is expected that the domestic production of lithium carbonate in November will be roughly flat compared to the previous month [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: The total market inventory decreased by 3,400 tons to 124,000 tons, with smelter inventory down 1,300 tons to 31,000 tons, downstream inventory down 1,300 tons to 52,000 tons, and trader inventory down 80 tons to 41,000 tons. High inventory continues to suppress prices at high levels [4]. - **Price Outlook**: The report is cautiously optimistic, placing the core price range at 75,000 - 95,000 yuan [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various commodities and financial markets, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, providing insights into their price trends, supply - demand dynamics, and investment suggestions based on current market conditions and macro - economic factors [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, but there is still downside potential for oil prices this year. Short - term support exists due to geopolitical factors, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the rebound [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply tends to be loose, while low - sulfur fuel oil gets short - term support, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is expected to widen further [22] - **Asphalt**: The poor shipment volume falsifies the construction rush demand expectation, and the market is bearish with significant pressure on prices [23] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: LPG shows a narrow - range oscillation and is relatively strong among oil futures. The decrease in supply and the increase in demand support the LPG market [24] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated with large intraday swings. They lack a strong driving force and may continue to consolidate. Attention should be paid to the $4150/ounce resistance level for international gold prices [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, Shanghai copper showed a position - reducing oscillation. The upward momentum of the copper market is declining, and short - term trading strategies such as buying put options are recommended [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated slightly stronger. Attention should be paid to the resistance around the November 2024 high of 21,800 yuan [5] - **Alumina**: Supply is in excess, and it is expected to operate weakly with limited rebound space [6] - **Zinc**: The zinc ingot export window is open. Low inventory supports the external market, and Shanghai zinc is expected to follow the external market to make up for the increase [8] - **Lead**: The external market rebounds strongly, and the domestic market is supported by rigid demand and is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,300 - 17,600 yuan [9] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel market is affected by over - supply, and the price is expected to be weak [10] - **Tin**: Affected by news from Indonesia, the short - term upward momentum is strong, and short - selling above 290,000 yuan is recommended [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: It shows a slight correction and is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to improved demand and reduced inventory [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price drops significantly, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the support at the lower edge of the range [13] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price declines slightly, and the short - term is expected to oscillate after the center of gravity rises [14] Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [16] - **Coke**: The downstream acceptance of the fourth - round price increase is poor, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [17] - **Coking Coal**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [18] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillates weakly, with strong support at the bottom [19] - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillates weakly, and it is judged to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [20] Chemicals - **Benzene and Its Derivatives**: Benzene is weak, styrene maintains a tight supply - demand balance but is under price pressure, and polypropylene, plastic, and propylene have weak supply - demand support [27][28][29] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is expected to run at a low level due to high supply and low demand, while caustic soda runs weakly [30] - **PX and PTA**: They oscillate, with a bearish outlook in the short - to - medium term and an expected inventory build - up for PTA [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply growth pressure is large, and a bearish view is maintained [32] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has a good spot pattern but weakening demand, while bottle - chip demand fades with processing margin pressure [33] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The supply of soybeans is expected to be sufficient in the fourth quarter, and there may be inventory reduction in the first quarter of next year. Attention should be paid to the USDA report [37] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Vegetable oil boosts the prices of soybean oil and palm oil. Palm oil is in a high - inventory situation, and its price is oscillating [38] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: The shortage of rapeseed in coastal areas supports rapeseed oil prices. Short - term observation is recommended [39] - **Corn**: The futures price oscillates at a high level, and the supply is expected to be loose, with limited rebound height [41] - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pigs**: The spot price drops slightly, and the futures price may rebound seasonally, with attention paid to the supply release rhythm [42] - **Eggs**: The far - month futures price rises, and the near - month price is weak. Observation is recommended [43] - **Cotton and Sugar** - **Cotton**: The price oscillates, with new - cotton cost providing support and demand being average [44] - **Sugar**: The international market supply is sufficient, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season output estimate [45] - **Fruits and Others** - **Apples**: The price oscillates widely, and a bearish operation idea is maintained due to inventory pressure [46] - **Timber**: The price runs weakly, with low inventory providing support [47] - **Paper Pulp**: The price rises, and the short - term upward space may be limited. Long positions should be held cautiously [48] Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index**: A - shares are weakly sorted, and futures contracts decline. Attention should be paid to the stability of the RMB exchange rate and domestic policy signals. A mid - term focus on technology and advanced manufacturing is recommended [49] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures oscillate upward, and the steepening of the yield curve is expected to end [50] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The reduction of shipping prices by shipping companies suppresses market sentiment. The downward space of the December contract is limited, and attention should be paid to cargo volume improvement and the adjustment of the 02 - contract delivery rules [21]

Report Overview - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1] Market Data Commodities - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, PTA rose 1.70% to 4664.00, aluminum rose 1.41% to 21625.00, and other commodities also had different changes. Gold fell 0.07% to 921.26, and some commodities like palm oil, copper, etc., declined [2] A - shares - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.79, while the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.91 [2] Overseas Stocks - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.29% to 26241.83, while the Nasdaq Index fell 3.04% to 23004.54 [2] Bonds - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the yield of China's 2 - year treasury bond changed from 2.84 to 1.43, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.7 bp to 1.81 [2] Foreign Exchange - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.25% to 1.16, and the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.55 [2] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes long - term domestic policy support, the start of the global AI cycle, improved global capital market sentiment, and the likely easing of Sino - US trade relations. Bearish logic includes better - than - expected US employment and manufacturing, decline in China's PMI, high A - share valuation, and increased risk - aversion sentiment [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes weak fundamentals supporting the bond market, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and central bank net investment. Bearish logic includes inflation repair, increased government bond issuance, and potential market sentiment disturbance [4] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes OPEC's suspension of production increase, short - term interruption of Russian oil, expected end - year risk - asset trading, and cost - price support. Bearish logic includes unexpected US inventory build - up, tight dollar liquidity, expected global inventory build - up, and rising production from new oil fields [5] Agricultural Products Sector Rapeseed Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes unexpected decline in rapeseed oil inventory, low inventory and low operating rate of domestic oil mills, and un - resumed domestic rapeseed crushing. Bearish logic includes lack of Chinese demand for Canadian rapeseed, weakening aquaculture demand, expected increase in imports, and potential impact of improved Sino - Canadian relations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes the expected end of the US government shutdown, slow recovery of overseas copper mines, consumption boost from the "15th Five - Year Plan", and long - term demand from emerging sectors. Bearish logic includes shrinking US manufacturing PMI, rising US dollar index, increasing domestic inventory, and high copper prices suppressing traditional consumption [6] Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased inventory of key enterprises, low - price valuation support, stable and slightly rising spot prices, and long - term policy support. Bearish logic includes weak terminal demand, sufficient industry capacity, high - inventory dragging down prices, and consumption - season pressure [6] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes concerns about the Fed's independence and US fiscal situation, geopolitical uncertainty, increased risk - aversion due to the US government shutdown, and high probability of December interest - rate cut. Bearish logic includes eased Sino - US trade relations, hawkish Fed remarks, strong US service data, and lack of clear bullish factors [7] Black Metals Sector Iron Ore - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased global shipments, rising basis during price decline, and increased blast - furnace operating rate. Bearish logic includes continuous over - seasonal inventory build - up at ports, significant increase in arrivals, difficult de - stocking of downstream products, decreased molten iron production, and increased negative - feedback pressure on steel mills [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silver: ☆☆☆ [1] Core View of the Report - Overnight precious metals rose. The US government shutdown negotiation made positive progress and is expected to restart soon. Although it weakens the impact on the economy, it is conducive to the release of phased liquidity. After the official data is restored and announced, the market will continue to weigh the economic and Fed policy prospects. Precious metals currently lack a strong driving force and may continue to build a high-level shock platform. The international gold price is concerned about the resistance around $4,150 per ounce [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs US Temporary Appropriation Bill Progress - The US Senate voted to pass the temporary appropriation bill and submitted it to the House of Representatives for review. The House of Representatives is expected to vote on the bill at 5 am Beijing time on Thursday [1] Fed Officials' Views - Fed Governor Milan believes that the possibility of the end of the government shutdown has not significantly changed the outlook. A 50-basis-point interest rate cut in December is appropriate, and at least a 25-basis-point cut should be made. Fed's Musalem thinks the labor market is close to full employment and is currently cooling down. The space for further policy easing is limited, and caution must be exercised. Fed's Daly says there is no inflation pressure from labor costs, and policymakers need to keep an open attitude towards further interest rate cuts [2] Trade Negotiations - Foreign media said that Switzerland is close to reaching an agreement with the US, and the tariff rate will be reduced to 15%. Trump responded that he is discussing an agreement to reduce tariffs with Switzerland, and the figures are not yet determined. Trump also said that he is close to reaching a trade agreement with India, which is very different from past agreements [2] China's Gold Production and Consumption - According to the latest statistics from the China Gold Association, in the first three quarters of 2025, domestic raw material gold production was 271.782 tons, an increase of 3.714 tons compared with the same period in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.39%. In addition, the production of imported raw material gold was 121.149 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.94%. The total production of domestic and imported raw materials was 392.931 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.60%. In the first three quarters of 2025, China's gold consumption was 682.730 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.95%. Among them, gold jewelry consumption was 270.036 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.50%; gold bars and coins consumption was 352.116 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.55%; industrial and other gold consumption was 60.578 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.72% [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ななな [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: 女女女 [1] Core Views - The overall supply of the chemical industry is relatively loose, and short - term demand release cannot provide continuous driving force. The cost and macro - aspects lack clear guidance [2]. - Different chemical products face various supply - demand situations and price trends, with most products under downward pressure or in a state of uncertainty [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene demand has improved temporarily, but overall supply is abundant, and short - term demand cannot drive continuously. Plastic and polypropylene futures closed down. Domestic supply of polyethylene increases, and demand shows weakness. For polypropylene, supply pressure increases, and demand is weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene price is weak, with a small decline in East China spot and stable Shandong quotes. There are short - term consolidation and medium - term negatives. Benzene - styrene maintains a tight supply - demand balance, but there are concerns about future supply - demand, and the price is under pressure [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA prices decreased. PX supply rises, PTA load drops, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. Ethylene glycol supply has growth pressure, and demand is expected to weaken. Short - fiber demand may decline, and bottle - chip demand fades [4]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol price continues to fall, with high expected arrivals in November and weak downstream demand. Urea price drops, with a weak supply - demand situation and a high probability of price decline in the short term [5]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC price drops, with weak cost support, high supply, and low demand. Caustic soda fluctuates, with good liquid chlorine prices, but high inventory pressure [6]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash price weakens slightly, with cost increases and high - pressure supply in the long term. Glass price drops, with cost increases, reduced profit, and low - inventory replenishment sentiment [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The supply - demand fundamentals of the chemical industry are generally weak, with limited support from cost and macro - aspects. Each sub - sector faces different supply and demand situations, and short - term market trends vary [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contracts of olefin futures rose first and then fell, closing below the 5 - day moving average. Propylene demand improved temporarily, but overall supply was loose. Plastic and polypropylene futures closed down. Domestic supply of polyethylene increased, and demand weakened. For polypropylene, supply pressure increased, and demand was weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices continued to be weak, hitting a new low. There was short - term consolidation, and medium - term negatives included high imports and falling demand. The main contract of styrene futures closed down. Although supply increased slightly, demand was good, but there were concerns about future supply - demand [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fell. PX supply increased, PTA load decreased, and polyester load increased slightly. There was an expectation of industry减产 for PTA, and it was expected to accumulate inventory. Ethylene glycol supply pressure was large, and demand was expected to weaken. Short fiber had no new investment pressure, but demand was expected to decline. Bottle chip demand faded, and there was long - term over - capacity [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures prices continued to fall. With high imports and weak demand, it might be under pressure in the short term, but with low valuation. Urea prices also fell. Domestic supply - demand was loose, and prices were likely to decline [5] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC prices continued to decline due to weak cost support, high supply, and falling demand. Caustic soda fluctuated. Although liquid chlorine prices were good, there was still high inventory pressure [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices weakened slightly. Cost increased, and there was a long - term supply pressure. Glass prices fell. Cost increased, profit narrowed, and there was weak demand [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy**: None - **Hold**: Soybean, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, egg [1] - **Sell**: None Core Viewpoints - The prices of various agricultural products show different trends, with some in high - level oscillations, some rising or falling, and the future trends depend on multiple factors such as policies, supply - demand, and international trade relations [2][3][4] - Different agricultural products have different investment strategies, including waiting for opportunities to go long, short - term waiting and seeing, and expecting limited rebounds [3][6][7] Summary by Commodity Soybean and Related Products - **Soybean**: The price of domestic soybeans is in high - level oscillation. The restart of soybean auction by Sinograin cools the market sentiment, while the purchase by Sinograin warehouses shows the advantage of high - protein soybean prices. The warehouse receipts of domestic soybeans increase with the rebound of imported soybeans. Short - term focus is on policies and market sentiment [2] - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The main contract of soybean meal futures oscillates. US soybeans are in a wide - range oscillation after a strong rise. The import tax rate of US soybeans in China is changed to 13%, but commercial imports still have no price advantage. The supply of soybeans is expected to be basically sufficient in Q4, and there may be inventory reduction in Q1 next year. The sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans is 58.4% as of November 8th. Focus on the USDA November supply - demand report and look for long - buying opportunities after the Sino - US trade eases [3] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Soybean oil and palm oil follow rapeseed oil to strengthen. The short - and medium - term supply - demand of rapeseed oil is strong, which boosts the price of soybean and palm oil. The high inventory of palm oil in Malaysia needs attention. The loss of the near - end crushing profit of imported soybeans supports soybean oil. The oil - meal ratio shows that soybean oil is stronger than soybean meal this week. The price of palm oil is in a horizontal oscillation, and its supply - demand and the trend of surrounding oils need attention [4] Rapeseed Products - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The positions and trading volume of domestic rapeseed futures contracts increase, maintaining the trend of strong oil and weak meal. The shortage of rapeseed in coastal areas leads to a more than expected decline in the inventory of rapeseed products, especially rapeseed oil, which supports its price. Supply - side focus is on the arrival time of Australian rapeseeds, the data adjustment of the USDA supply - demand report, and the Sino - Canadian relations. Short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [6] Corn - The 2601 contract of Dalian corn futures rises by 0.93% with reduced positions. The estimated output of this season's corn is 3 billion tons, a 1.72% increase. The spot price is strong in some areas due to temperature drop and reduced supply. The price of wheat starts to weaken. The high - level supply of grains in the Northeast has not passed, and the rebound height of the 01 contract of Dalian corn futures is expected to be limited, and it may continue to operate at the bottom [7] Livestock and Poultry Products - **Pig**: The spot price of pigs decreases slightly, while the futures show a significant increase in positions, and the near - month January contract drops sharply. The high price difference between fattening pigs may slow down the overall slaughter rhythm, and the pig price may have a seasonal rebound. In the long - term, the pig price may have a second bottom - probing next year [8] - **Egg**: The far - month egg futures price rises sharply and breaks through the previous oscillation platform. The reason is the expected decline in the laying - hen inventory due to the sharp decrease in chick replenishment in the second half of this year. The near - month contracts are weak due to the weakening of the spot price. The overall egg price is stable with some provincial declines. Focus on the spot performance and old - hen culling, and wait and see for now [9]