Report Investment Rating - The report gives an operation rating of ★☆☆ for CITIC's five-style - stable [4] Core View - In the week ending November 21, 2025, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were -5.12%, -0.02%, and -1.81% respectively. The equity strategy index in the public fund market weakened, short - term pure bonds had strong returns, convertible bond strategies had a pullback, and the returns of non - ferrous and precious metal ETFs and energy and chemical ETFs declined. In the CITIC five - style, all styles fell last Friday, with the cycle and growth styles performing weakly. The style timing signal favors the stable style this week [3][4] Section Summaries Fund Market Review - The equity strategy index in the public fund market weakened collectively in the past week, with the ordinary stock index falling 5.13%. Short - term pure bond returns were strong, convertible bond strategy returns pulled back, non - ferrous and precious metal ETF returns adjusted, and energy and chemical ETF net values continued to decline [4] Equity Market Style - **CITIC Five - Style Performance**: All five styles closed down last Friday, with the cycle and growth styles having weak returns. The style rotation chart shows that the relative strength and relative strength momentum of the five styles declined. In the public fund pool, the average performance of cycle and consumption style funds outperformed the benchmark in the past week. The market's deviation from the financial and growth styles increased. The crowding indicator changed little compared to last week, and the growth and cycle styles were in the lower quantile range in the past year [4] - **Neutral Strategy**: As of last week, the basis of IH and IF (futures - spot) declined and fell below the range of one standard deviation below the three - month average. In contrast, the basis of IC and IM showed an upward trend. Recently, the average premium rate index of ETFs corresponding to stock indices rebounded, with the premium rate indices of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 ETFs rising more significantly [4] - **Barra Factors**: In the past week, the leverage and intraday volatility factors had better returns, with a weekly excess return of 1.14%. The returns of medium - and long - term momentum factors continued to weaken. In terms of winning rates, the residual momentum factor increased slightly, and the growth factor decreased. The cross - section rotation speed of factors this week was the same as last week and was in the higher quantile range in the past year [4] - **Style Timing Model**: According to the latest scoring results of the style timing model, the cycle style declined this week, and the growth style rebounded slightly. The current signal favors the stable style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was -3.94%, with an excess return of 0.59% compared to the benchmark equal - weighted allocation [4]

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期市有风险，投资需谨慎 研究院—点石成金 曹颖 黑色金属首席分析师 Z0012043 1.蒙煤年末进口冲量，带来显著的供应增量 进口煤上量，焦煤重归颓势？ 近日伴随着甘其毛都关口蒙煤通关车数的持续高位，关于蒙古煤炭出口年末 要放量的市场预期也在持续发酵。今日市场对于 2025 年甘其毛都口岸的年度进 出口货运量目标讨论度颇高，按照 4200、4300 和 4500 万吨的不同目标值，当前 进口煤炭的完成度不等，也会导致日历年剩下的日通关车辆目标有很大不同。不 过据粗略估算，如果按照 4300 万吨左右的口岸年度目标值来预计，剩下的蒙煤 日通关车数对应的水平也应该在 1320 车/天左右。而甘其毛都关口本周日均通关 车数已经高达 1345 车/天，因此考虑到气温的季节性骤减对运输效率的影响，我 们预计蒙煤年末冲击规模已经得以体现。 但不可否认的是，如此高水平的通关水平如能持续到年底，还是对北方的炼 焦煤市场带来了明显的供应增量，也会导致 2601 焦煤合约的交割货源规模得到 进一步扩大。当前，甘其毛都关口的蒙 5 原煤报价已经从 10 月底的 1180 元/吨 跌至临近 1000 大关，跌幅几乎和期货盘面相当， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall non - ferrous metals market is in a state of adjustment, with many varieties showing a pattern of reduced positions and price fluctuations. The market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - economic data, policy expectations, and supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][4] - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different price trends and influencing factors, and investment opportunities and risks vary [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Shanghai copper reduced positions and declined, testing the MA40 moving average again in the short - term. The domestic refined copper was reported at 85,815 yuan, and the premiums in Shanghai and Guangdong slightly increased. Technically, LME copper temporarily fell below the 40 - day moving average, with potential support at the MA60 moving average. Short - positions should adjust the stop - loss level to 86,500 yuan [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum oscillated weakly, and the spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China slightly narrowed. The short - term fundamentals of the aluminum market are average, with poor inventory accumulation feedback, and the adjustment may continue. The price of cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price, and the price difference with AL may narrow. Alumina has a high operating capacity, with rising inventory and supply surplus. Before large - scale production cuts, alumina will operate weakly [3][6] Zinc - Affected by the divergence of US non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate data and the unclear prospect of the Fed's December interest rate cut, the long - position funds in the non - ferrous sector continued to reduce positions. Shanghai zinc, as a low - valued variety, was more resistant to decline than Shanghai aluminum. There is still a profit opportunity for cross - market reverse arbitrage on the disk, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel hit a new low recently, and the market trading activity increased. The support from the rebound of upstream prices is weakening, which may drag down the price level of the nickel industry chain. Nickel inventory increased, and the nickel price is running weakly with a downward - trending center of gravity [7] Tin - Shanghai tin reduced positions and declined. In October, the import of domestic tin concentrates increased significantly month - on - month. The long - term short - positions should hold with a stop - loss level of 295,000 yuan [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate once hit the daily limit down. The market is worried about systemic risks due to the overnight plunge of overseas US stocks, and the futures price is oscillating at a high level. Risk control should be the top priority [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures continued to decline with reduced positions. The spot prices of industrial silicon and silicone remained unchanged. The impact of the expected reduction in silicone demand on the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon is relatively limited. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the price dynamics of silicone [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures opened lower and then oscillated higher. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells are weakening. The supply - demand improvement of polysilicon is limited, and the short - term futures price is affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment and maintains an oscillating pattern [11]

Report Investment Ratings - The operation ratings for various products are as follows: Threaded steel is rated with three stars (★★★), hot-rolled coil with three white stars (☆☆☆), iron ore with three white stars (☆☆☆), coke with three red stars (★★★), coking coal with one red star (★☆☆), silicon manganese with one red star (★☆☆), and ferrosilicon with one red star (★☆☆) [1]. Core Views - The overall situation of the steel industry is complex. The demand is still pessimistic, the cost side is weak, and the market is under pressure. The iron ore market is expected to be volatile, and the coke and coking coal markets are likely to be weak. The silicon manganese market has a downward shift in the bottom support expectation, while the ferrosilicon market has relatively strong bottom support [2][3][4]. Summary by Product Steel - Today's steel market is mainly volatile. The demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils has improved, but the downstream's ability to absorb is insufficient, and steel mills continue to lose money. The possibility of further blast furnace production cuts is high, and the supply pressure is gradually easing. The overall domestic demand is still weak, and the export of steel has declined from its high level. The demand expectation is still pessimistic, and the market is under pressure, but there is still some support in the downward shift of the oscillation range [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market is oscillating today. The global shipment is strong, and the domestic port inventory is still in an accumulative trend. The demand for steel has rebounded, but it has entered the off-season, and steel mills' profitability is poor. The iron ore fundamentals are marginally looser, and the market is expected to be mainly oscillating [3]. Coke - The coke price declined today. The coking profit is average, and the daily production is slightly decreasing. The inventory has slightly increased, and the downstream's procurement is on a small scale as needed. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream's demand for raw materials is still resilient, but the steel mills' profit is average, and they have a strong desire to lower the price of raw materials. The coke market is expected to be weak and oscillating [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price declined today. The production of coking coal mines has slightly decreased, and the spot auction transactions are average. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream's demand for raw materials is still resilient, but the steel mills' profit is average, and they have a strong desire to lower the price of raw materials. The coking coal market is expected to be weak and oscillating [5]. Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price oscillated downward today. The market expects an increase in coal mine supply guarantee, which may lead to a decline in power costs and chemical coke prices. The demand for iron water has rebounded to a high level, but the production of silicon manganese is still at a relatively high level, and the inventory is slowly increasing. The bottom support expectation has shifted downward [6]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price oscillated upward today. The market expects an increase in coal mine supply guarantee, which may lead to a decline in power costs and semi-coke prices. The demand for iron water has rebounded to a high level, and the export demand has increased to about 40,000 tons. The overall demand is still resilient, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. The bottom support is relatively strong [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The futures of olefins and polyolefins are fluctuating widely, with supply - demand contradictions and price trends affected by factors like inventory, cost, and oil prices [2] - Pure benzene price rebounds with uncertain sustainability, and styrene's price is supported by short - term supply - demand improvement [3] - In the polyester industry, prices of PX, PTA, etc., are affected by multiple factors, and the supply of ethylene glycol is under pressure [5] - Methanol and urea markets have their own supply - demand situations and price trends [6] - PVC and caustic soda are in a weak operation state due to supply - demand imbalances [7] - Soda ash shows a long - term oversupply pattern, and glass has limited downward space [8] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene enterprise inventory is low, but downstream polypropylene cost pressure and low international oil prices may affect the market [2] - Polyethylene and polypropylene futures close down, with supply - demand contradictions in both markets [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene price rebounds with uncertain continuity, and styrene has short - term supply - demand support [3] Polyester - PTA price drops with the decline of PX and oil prices, and the supply of ethylene glycol is under pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol is in a weak operation, and urea may have an oscillating callback [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC and caustic soda are in a weak state due to supply - demand imbalances [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, and glass has limited downward space [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆ (White stars, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ (Same as above) [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ (Same as above) [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ (Same as above) [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ (Same as above) [1] - Natural Rubber: ☆☆☆ (Same as above) [1] - 20 - number Rubber: ☆☆☆ (Same as above) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ (Same as above) [1] Core Views - Cotton: Zhengzhou cotton is expected to remain range - bound due to new cotton listing and general demand, while the spot price is stable. The pure cotton yarn market has weak transactions. It's advisable to wait and see [2]. - Sugar: The sugar price is expected to remain weak. Brazilian production data is bearish, and there is supply pressure in the domestic market. The market focuses on the next - season's output estimate [3]. - Apple: There is an increase in long - short divergence. The market's trading logic shifts to sales expectations, and the de - stocking situation should be monitored [4]. - Natural Rubber, 20 - number Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber: Demand continues to weaken, natural rubber supply is decreasing, synthetic rubber supply is increasing, inventory is rising, and cost support is stable. It's advisable to wait and see and focus on cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6]. - Pulp: Due to continuous inventory build - up at domestic ports, loose supply, weak demand, and narrowing basis, the pulp price has been falling. It's advisable to wait and see [7]. - Timber: Low inventory supports the price. With weak domestic prices, low import willingness, and certain demand, it's advisable to wait and see [8]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Price: Zhengzhou cotton fell slightly, and the spot sales basis was stable. The mainstream lower sales basis of 2025/26 southern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was CF01 + 950 - 1050 [2]. - Supply: As of November 13, the national cumulative processed lint cotton was 3.907 million tons, an increase of 670,000 tons year - on - year and 1.342 million tons more than the four - year average [2]. - Demand: The pure cotton yarn market had weak transactions, with fewer new orders for spinning mills, decreased开机, and weavers mainly making rigid purchases [2]. Sugar - International: Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In mid - late October, the production data in central - southern Brazil was bearish, with increased cane crushing volume and a slightly higher sugar - making ratio [3]. - Domestic: Zhengzhou sugar was weak. In October, the syrup import volume decreased year - on - year, but sugar imports were relatively large. The market focuses on the next - season's output estimate, and the 2025/26 sugar output in Guangxi is expected to be good [3]. Apple - Price: The futures price fluctuated, and the price of small and medium - sized apples in the warehouse was relatively strong [4]. - Inventory: As of November 20, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 7.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.73% [4]. - Trading Logic: The trading logic has shifted to sales expectations, and the de - stocking situation is the main trading point [4]. 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Price: The futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - number rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR fluctuated sharply. Domestic spot prices were stable with a slight decline, the overseas butadiene tower - mouth price was stable, and the Thai raw material market price rose [6]. - Supply: Global natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, while the Yunnan region in China is gradually entering the non - tapping period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased, and some plants were under maintenance [6]. - Demand: The domestic tire operating rate decreased due to some tire enterprises' maintenance [6]. - Inventory: The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 452,600 tons, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber social inventory increased to 17,000 tons, and the upstream butadiene port inventory increased significantly to 39,800 tons [6]. Pulp - Price: The pulp futures continued to fall. The spot price of coniferous pulp Moon was 5,350 yuan/ton, and that of broad - leaved pulp Goldfish was 4,400 yuan/ton [7]. - Inventory: As of November 20, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.173 million tons, a 63,000 - ton increase from the previous period and a 3.0% month - on - month increase [7]. - Supply and Demand: The supply was loose, demand was weak, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low [7]. Timber - Price: The futures price fluctuated, and the mainstream spot price was stable [8]. - Supply: In November, the price of New Zealand radiata pine increased, and domestic importers' willingness to import decreased. Domestic supply is expected to remain low [8]. - Demand: The port delivery volume was over 60,000 cubic meters, providing support for the price [8]. - Inventory: The total log inventory was low, and the inventory pressure was relatively small [8].

【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空,不仅判断较为明晰的上涨/下跌趋势,且行情正在盘面发酵 | Millio ■控期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月21日 | | 黄金 ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜贵金属震荡回落。推迟公布的9月非农就业人数增加11.9万超预期和前值，但失业率小幅上升0.1个百分 点至4.4%,周度初请失业金人数22.3万人低于预期维持低位,就业保持韧性。美联储官员们表态存在较大分 歧,12月维持利率不变可能性较高。美股大幅回调,警惕流动性风险。贵金属高位震荡,关注技术面的方向 性突破。 ★美联储 -- ①巴尔:对通胀仍处于3%水平表示担忧。需要支持劳动力市场,但需 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish or bearish trend with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, with the same implications as crude oil [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, similar to the above [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, also suggesting a slightly bullish or bearish trend with poor operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term multi/empty trend is in a relatively balanced state, and it's better to wait and see [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The cyclical inflection point of oil prices caused by supply contraction has not been seen, and the rebound space of oil prices due to geopolitical factors is limited, with the market trending weakly in a volatile manner [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil is under multiple pressures, and its weak trend is expected to continue, while the low - sulfur fuel oil market fundamentals are strengthening, but the supply rebound risk from the RFCC unit maintenance of the Dangote refinery in Nigeria at the end of December needs attention [2] - The cost support for asphalt is continuously weakening, and the medium - to - long - term fundamentals are bearish [3] - The supply of liquefied petroleum gas has an incremental bearish suppression, and the supply - demand relationship has weakened marginally, causing the LPG trading floor to turn weak [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell further, with the SC01 contract dropping 1.67% during the day [2] - The geopolitical risk premium between Russia and Ukraine was suppressed, and the rebound space of oil prices due to geopolitical factors is limited, with the market trending weakly in a volatile manner [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Overnight crude oil price drop dragged down the fuel oil market [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil faces multiple pressures, including the possible decline of geopolitical factors, the steady increase in production in the Middle East, the end of the power generation peak season, and the possible weakening of refinery feed demand. Its weak trend is expected to continue [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil market fundamentals are strengthening due to supply - side disturbances, strong diesel cracking, and increased demand. However, the supply rebound risk from the RFCC unit maintenance of the Dangote refinery in Nigeria at the end of December needs attention [2] Asphalt - In November, the discount of diluted asphalt dropped to - 11 US dollars per barrel, and the cost support continued to weaken [3] - Since November, the weekly shipment volume has decreased month - on - month and is at a low level in the same period of the past four years. The commercial inventory depletion has slowed down, and the year - on - year increase of social inventory has expanded. The medium - to - long - term fundamentals are bearish [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - This week, the commodity volume decreased but the arrival volume increased, with supply having an incremental bearish suppression [4] - The profitability improvement of butane dehydrogenation units boosted the downstream chemical enterprises' enthusiasm for starting work, and the demand on the combustion side improved due to the significant cooling in many places [4] - The supply - demand relationship weakened marginally, causing the LPG trading floor to turn weak [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★☆, suggesting a clear bullish trend, and the market is in the process of rallying [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★, representing a more definite bullish trend, and there are still relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★, showing a more distinct bullish trend, and there are relatively suitable investment opportunities at present [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★, indicating a more obvious bullish trend, and there are still relatively good investment opportunities [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★, representing a more definite bullish trend, and there are relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Corn: ★★★, showing a more distinct bullish trend, and there are relatively suitable investment opportunities at present [1] - Live Hogs: ★★★, indicating a more obvious bullish trend, and there are still relatively good investment opportunities [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, keep an eye on the performance of the spot and policy sides of domestic soybeans, and wait for the signing of the latest Sino - US economic and trade agreement and track its implementation [2][3] - Wait for the end of the correction and focus on the opportunity to go long at low prices after stabilization [3] - Continuously monitor the performance of the palm oil supply - demand side and the fluctuations in the macro - situation [4] - Maintain a bearish strategy for the domestic rapeseed sector and pay attention to the interference of foreign bio - fuel policies and economic and trade relationship expectations [6] - Wait for the signing of the specific Sino - US trade agreement and pay attention to the sales progress of new grain in Northeast China [7] - In the medium - term, continue to observe whether the market trading logic returns to the weak spot market or the expected logic, and hold short positions cautiously [9] Summary by Category Bean - The main contract price of bean futures has declined recently, with significant position reduction on the trading floor and a slowdown in the downward trend. The auction of soybeans by Sinograin this week was fully sold, with an average transaction price of 3,900 yuan per ton. Imported US soybeans have been adjusting recently, affected by the weak overall macro - atmosphere and profit - taking [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybean meal futures M2601 continued to follow the US soybeans, showing a weak and volatile trend. The La Nina phenomenon is expected to last until the Northern Hemisphere winter, and its impact on the soybean yields in Brazil and Argentina needs continuous attention. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the near - end crushing profit is poor but the loss has narrowed recently. The domestic soybean meal may continue to accumulate inventory [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Commodities generally declined today, the macro - atmosphere was weak, and the market's expectation of further interest rate cuts in December decreased. The international crude oil price dropped, and the international diesel price also tumbled. The supply - demand situation of Malaysian palm oil is still poor, with an expected 10.32% month - on - month increase in production from November 1 - 20 and a 14.13% - 40.62% month - on - month decrease in exports from November 1 - 29. The soybean - palm oil price spread continues to widen, indicating that soybean oil is stronger than palm oil [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed futures prices stopped falling and rebounded slightly. The import volume of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil has decreased year - on - year by 10 - 30%. The market focus is on the variables of rapeseed imports. If the Australian rapeseed arrives in China smoothly, the premium of the rapeseed sector over other competitors may decline [6] Corn - The main contract of Dalian corn futures C2601 rose 1.11% today, breaking through the 2,200 mark at one point. The price of Northeast corn has declined in the past two days, but farmers are reluctant to sell due to the cold weather. The quality of North China corn is poor, and the market prefers high - quality Northeast corn, leading to concerns about future supply and transportation capacity in Northeast China. The previous prediction of a second bottom may turn into a wide - range shock [7] Live Hogs - The live hog futures continued to be weak, with the near - month contract hitting a new low. The spot price declined slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price is likely to form a second bottom in the first half of next year under the background of continuous supply pressure and off - season demand [8] Eggs - The egg futures fluctuated downward during the day, almost erasing yesterday's gains. The spot price was mostly stable, with slight declines in some areas. The short - term market volatility has increased [9]