Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆★ [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆★ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market of the steel and related industries is weak, with demand expectations being pessimistic and market sentiment being low. The market rhythm may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [1]. - Different varieties have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends, and the impact of carbon element supply and iron - water production on the market needs to be observed for further negative feedback [2][3][5]. Summary by Variety Steel - Today's steel futures market declined. This week, the apparent demand for thread decreased, production increased, and inventory continued to decline at a slower pace. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decreased, and inventory also continued to decline at a slower pace. Iron - water production continued to decline but remained at a relatively high level, with large supply pressure and repeated fermentation of off - season negative feedback expectations. Domestic demand in downstream industries is weak, with slowing manufacturing investment growth, low real - estate sales, and significant declines in recovery investment and new construction. The market is weak but may have fluctuations [1]. Iron Ore - The iron - ore futures market declined today. On the supply side, global shipments increased seasonally with room for further improvement, while domestic arrivals decreased and port inventories continued to decline. On the demand side, terminal demand faces seasonal weakening pressure, and iron - water production is gradually declining from a high level. Steel mills have no strong willingness to reduce production actively or replenish inventory. The short - term high iron - water production still supports real - time demand, but there is a lack of new upward drivers. It is expected to trend weakly with oscillations [2]. Coke - The coke price hit a new low this year. Iron - water production continued to decline slightly. The first round of price cuts for coking was fully implemented, but coking daily production remained at a relatively high level this year due to remaining profits. The overall coke inventory increased slightly, and traders made no purchases. The carbon - element supply is still abundant, and further negative feedback needs to be observed. The coke futures market is basically at par, and after the 2505 contract delivery, it should not be overly bearish considering steel market sentiment [3]. Coking Coal - The coking - coal price declined with oscillations, hitting a new low this year. The production of coking coal mines remained at a high level, with some mines reducing production and the number of shut - down mines increasing to 18. The spot auction market weakened significantly, with continuously falling prices, and terminal inventory continued to decline slightly. The total coking - coal inventory increased slightly month - on - month, and production - end inventory pressure continued to accumulate rapidly. In the imported seaborne coal market, Indian terminal acceptance of Australian coal at high prices weakened, but the trading sector strongly supported prices due to cost. The price of Australian quasi - first - line coking coal decreased slightly week - on - week, and it remained significantly inverted compared with domestic coal prices. The carbon - element supply is abundant, and further negative feedback needs to be observed. Coking coal maintains a significant discount, and after the 2505 contract delivery, it should not be overly bearish considering steel market sentiment [5]. Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price declined significantly. After the tender of the leading steel mill, the price rebounded. Due to continuous production cuts, weekly production data increased slightly, and inventory decreased, with a slight improvement in the fundamentals. South32 Australian ore is expected to arrive at about 50,000 tons at the end of this month. Iron - water production continued to decline slightly, while silicomanganese supply increased slightly. Manganese ore inventory began to accumulate, and market expectations changed. Affected by the overall black - metal market, the price remained weak [6]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price declined with oscillations. Iron - water production continued to decline slightly. Export demand remained at about 30,000 tons with little marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal was basically flat, and secondary demand remained high. Overall demand was okay. Ferrosilicon supply continued to decline, market trading was average, and on - balance - sheet inventory decreased slightly. Affected by the overall black - metal market, the price remained weak [7]

【棉花&棉纱】 | | | | Million | 国投期货 | 教商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月23日 | | 棉花 | ★☆★ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆★ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | 女女女 | | | 20号胶 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ななな | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今天郑棉维持霍悟震荡,国产棉现货交投一般，主流基盖坚挺;纯棉纱近日交投尚可,但没幸之下市场信心不足。国内棉花进 口延续偏低的情况，2025年4月进口6万吨，同比降28万吨，环比降1.4万吨;2025年1-4月累计进口40万吨,同比降71%; 2024/25年度9-4月累计进口86.6万吨，同比降65%。近期郑棉走 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean One: No clear rating [1] - Bean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bean Oil: No clear rating [1] - Palm Oil: No clear rating [1] - Rapeseed Meal: No clear rating [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆★ [1] - Corn: No clear rating [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆★ [1] - Eggs: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The soybean market is affected by factors such as policy, weather, and supply. The rapeseed market lacks trend - driving factors but has a bullish strategy. The corn market will fluctuate. The live pig market is under supply pressure, and the egg market is bearish in the long - term [2][3][5][6][7][8] Summary by Related Contents Soybeans - Domestic soybean futures fluctuate repeatedly, with local reserve soybean auctions resulting in no sales. The policy - driven trading volume is small. Imported soybeans face the pressure of large - scale arrivals from May to July, and weather will be a key factor in both domestic and overseas markets [2] - The drought - affected area of US soybeans has shrunk, with about 16% of the planting area affected as of May 20, compared to 17% the previous week and 6% last year. The domestic spot market has stabilized, and the supply has become more abundant. The competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans has increased, and there are still many uncertainties in Sino - US trade [3] Bean Meal - The Dalian bean meal main contract continued to close higher. The domestic spot market has stabilized, and the supply has become more abundant since May. There are many uncertainties in Sino - US trade, and the market lacks a continuous upward - driving force [3] Bean Oil and Palm Oil - The US House of Representatives has passed the 45Z amendment bill, which may increase the demand for domestic raw materials in North America, increase US soybean crushing, and reduce US soybean exports. Palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle overseas and faces the pressure of increased arrivals in China from May to June. The prices of bean oil and palm oil are expected to fluctuate within a range [3] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed - related futures contracts mainly fluctuated with small daily price changes. The sowing of Canadian rapeseed is advancing, and as of May 19, 58% of the rapeseed in Saskatchewan has been sown. The supply of oilseeds in China is expected to be abundant in the second quarter, and the strategy is still bullish [5] Corn - Corn futures rebounded slightly after hitting the bottom this week. The spot price of corn in Northeast China continued to decline slightly, and the supply in Shandong decreased. After the transfer of grain ownership, the market - circulating grain is still in the trading link. Starch enterprises have had long - term losses, with a recent decline in operating rates and a slight recovery in profits. The market will fluctuate in the next stage [6] Live Pigs - Live pig futures continued to hit new lows, and the spot price was under pressure due to the accelerated slaughter rate. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply of live pigs will recover, and the spot price is expected to decline, which may put downward pressure on the futures price [7] Eggs - The spot price of eggs across the country generally declined, and the near - month June contract continued to hit new lows. In the short - term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the price can stop falling and stabilize during the Dragon Boat Festival stocking period. In the medium - term, the industry's production capacity is expected to increase until the end of September. In the long - term, the egg price is bearish [8]

【尿素】 尿素盘面下跌。工业复合肥需求逐步走弱,农需零星启动,随着出口消息的影响力褪去,市场交易情结转弱, 周期内生产企业呈现黑库。尿素日产维持高位,但目前仍处于国内需求旺季,工农业需求交替进行,下一轮农 业需求的集中启动预计在端午节前后,短期价格预期维持区间内震荡运行为主。 【聚烯烃】 凝烯烃期货主力合约日内下行收跌。基本面上,市场存出货压力,成本瑞支撑松动,现货充足,业者维持积极 出货,价格下跌为主。聚丙烯成本支撑走弱,加之终端需求持续疲软,下游采购积极性欠佳,贸易商报盘让利 出货为主,价格重心持续向下,实盘让利成交。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 | 《八》国投期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年05月23日 | | 尿素 | 女女女 | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | ★☆★ | 聚丙烯 | ★☆★ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 塑料 | ★☆★ | PVC | 女女女 | | | 烧碱 | ★☆☆ | PX | ☆ ...

国内到岸价整体回落，5月上半月集中到岸导致华东阵容率继续走高,码头降价出货。进口成本支撑松动盈加烧 厂外放有所增加,炼厂气价整体下调。上周PDH开工率随装置降负仍有回落,但月末有装置开始重启,关注化工 需求回升的节奏。现货端承压延续,盘面震荡偏弱为主。 | 《》 国技期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年05月23日 | | 原油 | 女女女 | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文文 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ★☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价走弱, SG07合约日内跌2.1%%。昨日有消息称OPEC+正在讨论6月1日是否继续以41.1万桶/天速度 快速增产,市场对原油供需宽松 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The passage of the 45Z amendment bill by the US House of Representatives is expected to have a significant impact on the biodiesel and renewable diesel industries, potentially increasing the demand for North American vegetable oil raw materials and supporting the price of CBOT soybean oil [1][2][7] - The restrictions on tax credits for foreign entities may reduce trade volume and overseas raw material demand, while the small refinery exemption policy may have a complex impact on raw material demand in the short and long term [10][18][20] - The future RVO policy in the US is still being determined, and its implementation will affect the total demand for renewable energy, which is also an important factor affecting the price of US soybean oil [17] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Passage of the 45Z Amendment Bill - On May 22, the US House of Representatives passed a reconciliation bill including provisions to update and extend the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit. The bill will now be considered by the Senate [1] 2. Specific Provisions and Their Impacts 2.1 Extension of 45Z Credit - The 45Z credit will be extended to the end of 2031, which is beneficial for the continuous development of the biodiesel and renewable diesel industries and the demand for vegetable oil raw materials [2] 2.2 Raw Material Source Requirement - Raw materials must be produced or grown in the US, Mexico, and Canada, which is expected to increase the demand for North American crops and reduce the import of non - North American raw materials. In 2024, vegetable oil raw materials were mainly from North America, while animal fats and yellow greases still had imports from other regions. The policy may increase the use of canola oil and soybean oil [3][4] 2.3 Adjustment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Calculation - The adjustment of the life - cycle greenhouse gas emissions calculation to exclude indirect land - use change emissions is expected to lower the carbon emission coefficient of vegetable oils, allowing for more subsidies. For example, the subsidy for producing renewable diesel with soybean oil is estimated to increase from $0.23 per gallon to $0.52 per gallon, which is beneficial for supporting the price of CBOT soybean oil [7] 2.4 Restrictions on Foreign Entities for Tax Credits - Tax credits for specific foreign entities are restricted. If a taxpayer is a specific foreign entity, no credit will be allowed after the enactment date. For entities affected by foreign influence, no credit will be allowed two years after the enactment date. This may reduce the trade volume of US biodiesel and renewable diesel and affect the demand for overseas raw materials [10][11][13] 3. Demand Performance 3.1 Raw Material Demand in 2025 - From January - February 2025, the total consumption of US biodiesel raw materials decreased by 23.9% year - on - year. Among them, vegetable oil consumption decreased by 31.7%, soybean oil consumption decreased by 33.4%, canola oil consumption decreased by 57.6%, and corn oil consumption remained flat [5] 3.2 Trade Volume in 2025 - From January - March 2025, US biodiesel imports decreased by 90% year - on - year, and exports decreased by 46% year - on - year. From January - February 2025, the net import of US renewable diesel became a net export, mainly to European countries, and the import from Singapore decreased by 94% year - on - year [16] 4. Other Policies to Be Concerned 4.1 RVO Policy - The US 2026 and subsequent RVO policies are still being determined. The market's expected range for the biodiesel RVO varies widely, and the price of US soybean oil has been trading on RVO - related themes. The EPA submitted a proposed rule to the White House Office of Management and Budget on May 14, and subsequent policy implementation needs to be monitored [17] 4.2 Small Refinery Exemption Policy - The news of small refinery exemptions is uncertain. If implemented, it may reduce current demand but increase future demand. The 13.6 billion gallons of exemption volume, when allocated to biodiesel at a 30% - 50% ratio, is expected to result in a total raw material demand range of 148 - 246 million tons. If 100% is used for biodiesel - produced RIN substitution, the total raw material demand is 493 million tons [18][19][20]

Report Overview - Report Date: May 23, 2025 [2] - Data Source: Flush iFinD, Guotou Futures [4] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of weekly futures price and volume data across various commodity categories, including precious metals, non-ferrous metals, black metals, energy and chemicals, agricultural products, forest products, livestock products, and financial futures. It shows the weekly closing prices, price changes, 20-day annualized volatility, volatility changes, speculation degrees, trend degrees, and capital changes of different futures varieties [3][4]. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Gold closed at 780.10 with a weekly increase of 3.76%, 20-day annualized volatility of 29.63% (down 7.33%), speculation degree of 1.52, trend degree of 0.41, and capital inflow of 76.60 [3]. - Silver closed at 8,263.00, up 2.00%, with 17.54% volatility (up 8.45%), speculation degree of 2.04, trend degree of 0.29, and capital inflow of 10.29 [3]. - Copper closed at 77,790.00, down 0.45%, with 9.91% volatility (down 12.87%), speculation degree of 0.43, trend degree of -0.12, and capital outflow of 10.39 [3]. - Nickel closed at 122,610.00, down 1.17%, with 13.81% volatility (down 5.36%), speculation degree of 1.88, trend degree of -0.20, and capital inflow of 6.22 [3]. - Aluminum closed at 20,155.00, up 0.12%, with 11.07% volatility (down 4.78%), speculation degree of 0.66, trend degree of 0.22, and capital outflow of 3.86 [3]. Non-Ferrous Metals - Tin closed at 264,600.00, down 0.06%, with 11.52% volatility (down 33.10%), speculation degree of 2.25, trend degree of -0.10, and capital outflow of 1.38 [3]. - Zinc closed at 22,215.00, down 0.63%, with 11.40% volatility (down 19.48%), speculation degree of 1.33, trend degree of -0.10, and capital outflow of 0.38 [3]. - Lead closed at 16,860.00, down 0.21%, with 9.08% volatility (down 6.10%), speculation degree of 1.07, trend degree of -0.08, and capital inflow of 0.54 [3]. - Industrial silicon closed at 7,915.00, down 2.82%, with 24.65% volatility (down 8.02%), speculation degree of 1.46, trend degree of -0.20, and capital inflow of 0.09 [3]. Black Metals - Rebar closed at 3,046.00, down 1.17%, with 15.85% volatility (down 8.38%), speculation degree of 0.58, trend degree of -0.23, and capital inflow of 4.05 [3]. - Iron ore closed at 718.00, down 1.37%, with 22.53% volatility (down 5.98%), speculation degree of 0.41, trend degree of -0.05, and capital outflow of 3.42 [3]. - Coke closed at 1,383.00, down 4.32%, with 26.47% volatility (down 6.59%), speculation degree of 0.39, trend degree of -0.40, and capital inflow of 1.83 [3]. - Coking coal closed at 801.50, down 5.98%, with 27.88% volatility (down 1.01%), speculation degree of 0.84, trend degree of -0.40, and capital inflow of 7.24 [3]. - Hot-rolled coil closed at 3,189.00, down 1.15%, with 15.09% volatility (down 6.58%), speculation degree of 0.32, trend degree of -0.22, and capital inflow of 1.05 [3]. - Ferrosilicon closed at 5,512.00, down 3.37%, with 17.68% volatility (down 0.16%), speculation degree of 0.69, trend degree of -0.32, and capital outflow of 1.54 [3]. - Silicomanganese closed at 5,718.00, down 2.39%, with 29.29% volatility (up 38.29%), speculation degree of 1.11, trend degree of -0.15, and capital outflow of 3.11 [3]. - Stainless steel closed at 12,875.00, down 0.69%, with 9.33% volatility (down 1.95%), speculation degree of 0.91, trend degree of -0.04, and capital outflow of 1.28 [3]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil closed at 452.80, down 0.75%, with 33.94% volatility (down 2.12%), speculation degree of 4.44, trend degree of -0.04, and capital inflow of 2.26 [3]. - Fuel oil LU closed at 2,995.00, down 1.79%, with 23.30% volatility (down 11.23%), speculation degree of 1.21, trend degree of -0.23, and capital outflow of 1.36 [3]. - LPG closed at 4,041.00, down 3.63%, with 16.47% volatility (up 7.42%), speculation degree of 1.14, trend degree of -0.50, and capital inflow of 0.20 [3]. - Asphalt closed at 3,516.00, up 1.59%, with 17.46% volatility (down 6.81%), speculation degree of 1.38, trend degree of 0.03, and capital inflow of 2.39 [3]. - PVC closed at 4,854.00, down 1.88%, with 18.40% volatility (down 3.26%), speculation degree of 0.91, trend degree of -0.16, and capital outflow of 1.11 [3]. - Polyethylene closed at 7,085.00, down 2.09%, with 15.27% volatility (up 1.01%), speculation degree of 0.62, trend degree of -0.39, and capital outflow of 0.55 [3]. - Polypropylene closed at 6,948.00, down 2.04%, with 11.10% volatility (up 3.69%), speculation degree of 0.59, trend degree of -0.47, and capital inflow of 2.21 [3]. - Styrene closed at 7,439.00, down 2.90%, with 29.86% volatility (up 4.80%), speculation degree of 3.26, trend degree of -0.22, and capital outflow of -2.65 [3]. - PTA closed at 4,716.00, down 1.21%, with 23.60% volatility (down 4.45%), speculation degree of 0.90, trend degree of -0.06, and capital outflow of 1.28 [3]. - Ethylene glycol closed at 4,403.00, down 1.28%, with 19.89% volatility (down 5.47%), speculation degree of 0.88, trend degree of -0.10, and capital outflow of 2.18 [3]. - Short fiber closed at 6,450.00, down 1.53%, with 18.80% volatility (down 0.34%), speculation degree of 1.09, trend degree of -0.17, and capital outflow of 0.22 [3]. - Methanol closed at 2,222.00, down 2.71%, with 21.82% volatility (up 0.24%), speculation degree of 0.72, trend degree of -0.41, and capital inflow of 1.85 [3]. - Urea closed at 1,827.00, down 2.66%, with 29.57% volatility (up 0.85%), speculation degree of 0.75, trend degree of -0.26, and capital outflow of 2.70 [3]. - Glass closed at 1,000.00, down 0.50%, with 27.19% volatility (down 2.82%), speculation degree of 0.97, trend degree of 0.02, and capital inflow of 2.00 [3]. - Soda ash closed at 1,253.00, down 2.79%, with 30.17% volatility (down 3.42%), speculation degree of 0.75, trend degree of -0.02, and capital inflow of 6.49 [3]. - Natural rubber closed at 14,535.00, down 2.48%, with 17.57% volatility (down 1.26%), speculation degree of 2.76, trend degree of -0.32, and capital inflow of 4.78 [3]. Agricultural Products - Cotton closed at 13,410.00, up 0.15%, with 11.80% volatility (down 6.07%), speculation degree of 0.27, trend degree of 0.01, and capital outflow of 4.92 [3]. - Sugar closed at 5,833.00, down 0.38%, with 8.24% volatility (down 14.76%), speculation degree of 0.49, trend degree of -0.13, and capital outflow of 2.34 [3]. - Corn closed at 2,327.00, down 0.34%, with 8.52% volatility (down 5.43%), speculation degree of 0.37, trend degree of -0.05, and capital inflow of 0.13 [3]. - Apple closed at 7,562.00, down 2.55%, with 14.59% volatility (down 26.04%), speculation degree of 0.74, trend degree of -0.17, and capital outflow of 1.26 [3]. - Starch closed at 2,663.00, down 0.82%, with 7.66% volatility (down 15.56%), speculation degree of 0.46, trend degree of -0.13, and capital inflow of 0.20 [3]. - Soybean No.1 closed at 4,172.00, up 0.10%, with 13.19% volatility (down 23.07%), speculation degree of 0.90, trend degree of 0.00, and capital inflow of 1.99 [3]. - Soybean No.2 closed at 3,571.00, up 1.45%, with 12.21% volatility (down 23.52%), speculation degree of 1.01, trend degree of 0.18, and capital outflow of 1.53 [3]. - Soybean meal closed at 2,952.00, up 1.83%, with 12.15% volatility (up 0.34%), speculation degree of 0.47, trend degree of 0.17, and capital inflow of 4.81 [3]. - Soybean oil closed at 7,774.00, up 0.26%, with 12.36% volatility (down 8.70%), speculation degree of 0.50, trend degree of 0.03, and capital outflow of 0.71 [3]. - Palm oil closed at 8,006.00, up 0.28%, with 21.50% volatility (down 1.56%), speculation degree of 1.48, trend degree of 0.08, and capital outflow of 2.30 [3]. - Rapeseed meal closed at 2,556.00, up 1.71%, with 19.09% volatility (down 11.49%), speculation degree of 0.56, trend degree of 0.18, and capital outflow of 2.23 [3]. - Rapeseed oil closed at 9,391.00, up 1.23%, with 12.44% volatility (down 14.44%), speculation degree of 1.04, trend degree of 0.26, and capital inflow of 6.45 [3]. Forest Products - Pulp closed at 5,464.00, up 2.02%, with 19.01% volatility (down 3.46%), speculation degree of 2.32, trend degree of 0.31, and capital inflow of 1.00 [3] Livestock Products - Eggs closed at 2,966.00, down 0.50%, with 14.07% volatility (down 2.89%), speculation degree of 0.69, trend degree of 0.26, and capital inflow of 0.39 [3] - Hogs closed at 13,515.00, down 1.06%, with 10.77% volatility (down 13.06%), speculation degree of 0.27, trend degree of -0.16, and capital inflow of 1.17 [3] Financial Futures - IC closed at 5,561.80, down 0.71%, with 13.55% volatility, speculation degree of 0.45, trend degree of 0.05, and capital inflow of 46.51 [4] - IF closed at 3,846.20, up 0.01%, with 10.56% volatility (up 6.03%), speculation degree of 0.39, trend degree of 0.14, and capital inflow of 38.90 [4] - IM closed at 5,872.00, down 1.04%, with 17.13% volatility (down 6.98%), speculation degree of 0.73, trend degree of -0.08, and capital inflow of 71.69 [4] - IH closed at 2,693.00, down 0.08%, with 10.47% volatility (up 6.23%), speculation degree of 0.57, trend degree of 0.04, and capital inflow of 9.21 [4] - T closed at 108.85, up 0.18%, with 2.59% volatility (down 9.04%), speculation degree of 0.48, trend degree of 0.05, and capital inflow of 2.56 [4] - TS closed at 102.41, up 0.03%, with 0.61% volatility (down 8.47%), speculation degree of 0.39, trend degree of -0.04, and capital outflow of 1.34 [4] - TF closed at 106.05, up 0.14%, with 1.46% volatility (down 8.85%), speculation degree of 0.47, trend degree of 0.04, and capital outflow of 2.76 [4] Other Key Information - The daily average open interest of crude

安如泰山 信守承诺 一、扩能背景下供应压力难以缓解 2025年1-4月份获国舜丙烯累计检修损失置为231.8万吨,同比增长5.15%。但由于新增产能产蛋不断释放、同 期我国聚丙烯产量仍然呈现快速增长态势,1-4月我国舜丙烯产量达到1261.1万吨,同比增长12.7%。为了缓解国 内供应压力，生产企业这几年积极拓展海外市场，目前已经取得很大成效。2021年之后我国聚丙烯出口量级出 现明显跃升,2024年获国聚丙烯出口查达到2020年的5倍,在2024年出口蛋同比大幅增长背景下,2025年1-4月累 计出口蛋在101.84万吨,同比+16.9%。 综合产蛋和进出口置,得到我国1-4月总供给蛋增速在10.8%。总体来看,检修损失置和出口蛋的增长，虽然 在一定程度上线解了国内的供应压力,但在持续的扩产周期之下,我国聚丙烯供应压力难以得到有效提解，成 为聚丙烯价格下行持续的压力。 2025年 2024年 2023 资料来源:卓创资讯,国投期货 图 1: 我国聚丙烯月度检修损失量 资料来源:卓创资讯,国投期货 聚丙烯:多方利空 熊市延续 化工视点 今年以来聚丙烯价格延续下跌行情,扩能压力之下,供应端持续施压。然而需求修复 ...

国投期货 何建辉 投资咨询号 Z0000586 数据来源： Tysteel，国投期货整理 免费声朗，国投取首聊化公司是经中国正盆会创优街过之故期待经营时构，已具看解货投资咨询业务资值，本报告(只供图报知指有限公司（以下简称" 本公司"）的机构或个人客户（以下简称" "客户" ）使用，本公司不会国鞍め人权到本报告而现 其为客户，如接收人并和强谈影影官户，请及时退风并删除，本报告是量于本公司认为可靠的已公开信息，但本公司不吸庇按着信息的准确性或完整任，本报告所载的资料、意见及准则只提供给客户作参考之用，本报告所载动贷料、意见及挽ຟ 仅反映本公司于该市场浩当日的影响，本报告所能的期货或期限的价值、价值可账会成功。在不同时期，本公司可发出与本报告所载资料、意见及趣现不一致放假告。客户不应似本报告为澳放出投资安报的唯一运营。在任何情况下，本报告中 的总昆或所袁述的意见并不纳成时在何人的投资建议，在在何情况下，本公司不对任何人国使用本报告中的任何内容所导致的任何院失失任何责任。本报告可能的带亮足河站的地域或级短矩，本公司不对系内容的真实性、合法性、完整性和目 赌出负责。本报告报的这部地域都接触的目的领势是为了客户使用方便 ...

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