Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, same as sugar, short - term balance and low operability [1] - Timber: ★★★, clear upward trend and good investment opportunity [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, bullish bias with limited market operability [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★, clear upward trend and appropriate investment chance [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆, short - term balance and low operability [1] Core Views - The prices of different soft commodities show various trends, affected by factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and production conditions. Different trading strategies are recommended for each commodity based on their specific situations [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton has risen for two consecutive days, and the spot sales basis is stable. New cotton cost supports the price but also limits its height, with short - term range - bound trading likely. Despite large new cotton production increase, low commercial inventory and fast sales support the price. As of November 20, 4631000 tons of lint cotton were processed nationwide, up 812000 tons year - on - year. As of November 15, commercial cotton inventory was 3639700 tons, down 204300 tons year - on - year. The cotton yarn market has weak trading, with less new orders for spinning mills and lower开机 rates. High - count yarn has firm prices and better trading. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, although the cane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the increased sugar - making ratio compensated for the loss in sugar production, keeping the output high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are starting to crush, and with good weather, sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is weak. In October, syrup imports decreased year - on - year, but sugar imports were large, putting pressure on the supply side. The market's focus is shifting to the next season's production estimate. With good rainfall in Guangxi in the third quarter and an increase in the sugarcane vegetation index, the 25/26 season's sugar production in Guangxi is expected to be good. Overall, sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price is strong. In the spot market, small and medium - sized apples are mainly traded in Shandong, and other varieties have less trading. In the Northwest, merchants are packaging their own apples for the market, and the mainstream price is stable. As of November 20, the national cold - storage apple inventory is 7.33 million tons, down 12.73% year - on - year. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory to sales expectations. Due to poor apple quality and high purchase prices, there is strong reluctance to sell among traders and farmers, which may affect the de - stocking speed. The future de - stocking situation is the main trading point, and there are increasing differences between bulls and bears. It is necessary to monitor the de - stocking situation [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber (RU), 20 - rubber (NR), and butadiene rubber (BR) all declined. Domestic natural rubber is stable with a slight decline, synthetic rubber spot prices are stable, the overseas butadiene tower - mouth price has risen, and the Thai raw material market price has fallen. Currently, global natural rubber supply is at a high level, but China's Yunnan production area is gradually entering the non - tapping season. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate continued to rise, with some plants restarting or under maintenance. The upstream butadiene plant operating rate also increased. Last week, the domestic tire operating rate decreased due to some tire companies' maintenance, and Shandong tire companies' finished - product inventory continued to increase. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 468900 tons, and last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber increased to 17000 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory increased significantly to 39800 tons. Overall, demand is weakening, natural rubber supply is decreasing, synthetic rubber supply is increasing, inventory is rising, cost support is stable, the external environment is deteriorating, and market sentiment is cautious. The strategy is to be bullish on RU, wait and see on NR and BR, and look for cross - variety arbitrage opportunities for NR and BR [6] Pulp - Today, pulp futures declined slightly. The spot price of coniferous pulp is 5300 yuan/ton for Moon and 5170 yuan/ton for Russian coniferous pulp in the Yangtze River Delta. The price of broad - leaf pulp is 4400 yuan/ton for Goldfish. As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports is 2.173 million tons, an increase of 63000 tons from the previous period, a 3.0% month - on - month increase, with two consecutive weeks of significant inventory accumulation. The continuous increase in domestic import inventory and weak demand continue, with low downstream purchasing enthusiasm. After the previous increase, the basis has narrowed significantly. Due to the overall weak fundamentals, the price has continued to decline after the basis convergence. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuates. In the spot market, the mainstream price is stable. The overseas price is still high, and the domestic spot price is weak, increasing the pressure on traders. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and domestic supply will remain low. The port outbound volume is above 60000 cubic meters, and demand supports the price. Log inventory is low, with relatively small inventory pressure. Low inventory supports the price to some extent, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]

隔夜贵金属上涨。随着包括纽约联储主席以及美联储理事沃勒等多位美联储官员表态支持12月降息,利率市 场隐含降息概率升至80%。俄乌相关方围绕美方提出的和平计划展开讨论和博弈,持续关注后续进展。市场 不确定性依然较强,贵金属高位震荡等待方向性突破。 ★俄乌局势—1美国总统特朗普: （谈及乌克兰会谈）可能有好事发生,乌克兰谈判可能正在取得进展。② 德国总理默茨：本周乌克兰谈判不会取得突破。③鸟克兰官员：此前的28点和平计划已不复存在，美乌已起 草新的19点和平计划，但政治上最敏感的部分将留给两国总统决定。④泽连斯基：结束冲突步骤清单超近可 行,将与特朗普商讨敏感议题 ★美联储—1理事沃勒:自美联储上次会议以来,现有数据显示变化不大,通胀并非大问题。我担心的是劳 动力市场，我主张在12月降息。②美联储戴利：就业市场可能突然恶化，支持在12月降息。尽管戴利今年对 货币政策没有投票权,但她很少在公开场合与美联储主席鲍威尔持不同意见。3市场出现美联储应等待非农 公布,推迟12月议息时间的观点。 ★美国9月PCE将于12月5日发布,三季度GDP的二次预估数据发布仍待重新安排,初值取消发布。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 | ...

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月25日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 昆一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 棕榈油 | ☆☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 豆粕 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜油 | ななな | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬粕 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ななな | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ☆☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆波动反复，反弹之后再度回调。目前现货市场报价稳定，市场参与者挺价意愿偏强。政策端上周仍然在进行拍卖,不 过市场预计短期拍卖量尚未对供应端带来冲击。今年国产高蛋白太豆供应趋紧，因此市场对高蛋白大豆给予乐观的预期，给整 体大豆市场带来偏强的预期。美豆方面11月份显现出中国在采购美国大豆，预计中国 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The international oil price rebounded overnight, with the SC01 contract rising 0.67% during the day. The geopolitical risk between Russia and Ukraine is entangled between the reality of sanctions and the expectation of peace talks. The market faces a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, and the downward driving force of oil prices remains. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan negotiation and the disturbance of the Venezuela geopolitical risk this week [2] - High-sulfur fuel oil is still supported by supply disturbances in the short term. The geopolitical risk premium and sanctions intensity are expected to gradually decline. The medium-term loose pattern is difficult to change. Low-sulfur fuel oil supply is still abundant recently, and it is expected to follow the weakening trend [3] - Since November, the weekly shipment volume of asphalt has been at the lowest level in the same period in the past four years. The subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening law, and the medium- and long-term fundamentals have a negative impact on BU [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The international oil price rebounded overnight, and the SC01 contract rose 0.67% during the day [2] - The geopolitical risk between Russia and Ukraine is entangled between the reality of sanctions and the expectation of peace talks. The US sanctions on Russian oil have come into effect, and the negotiation between the US and Ukraine on the peace plan before the deadline this Thursday is still uncertain [2] - The market faces a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, and the downward driving force of oil prices remains. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan negotiation and the disturbance of the Venezuela geopolitical risk this week [2] Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - High-sulfur fuel oil is still supported by supply disturbances in the short term. Russian energy facilities are continuously attacked, and the exports have declined slightly recently. The US sanctions on Russia have come into effect. It is expected that its crack spread and monthly spread will be repaired recently [3] - The geopolitical risk premium and sanctions intensity are expected to gradually decline. The Middle East region will maintain a high level of exports to Asia due to factors such as the decline in power generation demand and the steady production increase of OPEC+. The medium-term loose pattern is difficult to change [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil supply is still abundant recently. The RFCC devices in the Asia-Pacific region have not fully recovered, and the Dangote maintenance has been advanced. As the gasoline and diesel spread declines due to the increase in refinery start-up, low-sulfur fuel oil is expected to follow the weakening trend [3] Asphalt - Since November, the weekly shipment volume of asphalt has been at the lowest level in the same period in the past four years. The latest commercial inventory destocking continues to slow down, and the year-on-year amplitude of social inventory has shown an expanding trend [4] - The recent stable and rising spot price in Shandong has boosted the futures market. The subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening law, and the medium- and long-term fundamentals have a negative impact on BU [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (Red stars represent a predicted trend of rising) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, but with limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (White stars represent a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Propylene: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The olefin - polyolefin market shows mixed trends. Propylene is stable with a slight increase, while plastic and polypropylene are falling due to supply - demand imbalances [2]. - The pure benzene - styrene market has a downward trend in pure benzene and a stable - supported trend in styrene [3]. - The polyester market has different trends for each product. PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term, PTA follows cost - driven logic, ethylene glycol may rebound in the short - term but has limited medium - term space, short - fiber follows raw material prices, and bottle chip is cost - driven with over - capacity pressure [5]. - The coal - chemical market has different trends for methanol and urea. Methanol may have a long - spread opportunity, while urea is expected to remain in a supply - surplus situation [6]. - The chlor - alkali market shows that PVC may stop falling and stabilize, and caustic soda is in a weak operation [7]. - The soda ash - glass market shows that soda ash is in a supply - surplus situation, and glass may have limited downward space [8]. Summary by Directory Olefin - Polyolefin - Propylene futures fluctuate above the 5 - day average line. Market lacks news, with stable enterprise quotes and a slight increase in real - deal prices [2]. - Plastic and polypropylene futures decline. Plastic has increased supply pressure due to reduced maintenance and more arrivals, and weak demand. Polypropylene's supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand is limited [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Unified benzene prices continue to fall. There are concerns about Asian pure benzene exports, but the sustainability is questionable. Downstream demand is weak [3]. - Styrene futures fluctuate narrowly. Supply may decrease slightly, demand is good, and inventory is falling, supporting prices [3]. Polyester - PX's short - term supply - demand is weak, but it is expected to be strong in the medium - term. PTA follows cost - driven logic and may see improved processing margins [5]. - Ethylene glycol may rebound in the short - term but has limited medium - term space. Short - fiber follows raw material prices, and bottle chip is cost - driven with over - capacity [5]. Coal - Chemical - Methanol futures adjust narrowly, and spot prices rise slightly. There may be an opportunity to go long on the 5 - 9 spread, but beware of weak reality [6]. - Urea futures fall, and spot prices in the Northeast rise. The supply - surplus situation is expected to continue [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC shows an oscillating trend. There is a possibility of export improvement to India, and inventory is decreasing. It may follow cost changes [7]. - Caustic soda shows an oscillating trend. Supply is high, demand is weak, and it is in a weak operation [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash shows a weak trend. It is in a de - stocking situation, with increased production. It is in a supply - surplus situation in the long - term [8]. - Glass shows an oscillating trend. There may be limited downward space due to cost support and potential cold - repair [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum and palladium are important precious metals with high demand in various industries, and their supply is highly concentrated, with significant supply - side impacts on prices. The supply - side factors such as production cuts, accidents, and disruptions in recycling channels can cause obvious price fluctuations [15]. - The demand for platinum and palladium is mainly in automotive catalysts, industry, jewelry, and medical fields. In the context of carbon neutrality and carbon peaking, the hydrogen energy industry is expected to become a new growth point for platinum and palladium consumption [37][47]. - China's platinum - group metal resources are extremely scarce, with a high degree of import dependence. The importance of the recycling end is increasing, but the supply of waste materials is tight, and domestic recycling enterprises face fierce competition [32][82]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Platinum and Palladium Species Overview - **Natural Attributes**: Platinum and palladium are silver - white metals, belonging to the platinum - group metals (PGMs). Platinum has a crustal content of 0.005 ppm, and palladium has 0.0006 ppm. Platinum has high melting point, good ductility, and stable chemical properties. Palladium can adsorb gases, is corrosion - resistant, and is mainly used in the catalyst field [6][7][8]. - **Resource Distribution and Classification**: Platinum - group metal resources are mainly distributed in South Africa, Russia, the United States, and other regions. The deposits can be divided into primary deposits and exogenous sand deposits, with magma - related processes being the main formation mechanism [10][13]. 3.2 Platinum - Group Metal Industry Chain - **Upstream**: The upstream of the platinum - group metal industry chain is dominated by a few mining and smelting integrated producers. The "oligopoly" structure makes the supply side dominant in price. The mining and extraction of platinum - group metals involve exploration, mining development, ore extraction, processing, and refining [15][16]. - **Supply and Recycling of Platinum - Group Materials**: The separation and purification processes of platinum - group metals vary according to the raw material components. The recycling of platinum - group metals is becoming increasingly important, but the supply of waste materials is tight [19][32]. - **Terminal Applications**: Platinum and palladium are mainly used in automotive catalysts, jewelry, industry, medical, and other fields. Automotive catalysts are the largest consumer area, with platinum's consumption structure being more diversified and over 80% of palladium used in automotive catalysts [37]. - **Investment Channels**: Platinum investment channels include physical investment (platinum bars and coins), platinum ETFs, futures, forwards, and stocks. Palladium investment demand is relatively small [49][50]. 3.3 Global Platinum Supply - Demand Pattern - **Supply**: South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Russia are the main suppliers of global platinum. In 2024, South Africa's platinum output accounted for 71% of the global total. The global platinum output decreased in 2024 due to various factors such as power outages and company restructurings [55]. - **Demand**: The main consumers of global platinum are China, Europe, North America, and Japan. In 2024, the global platinum demand decreased by 1.6% to 198 tons, with a supply gap of 1.98 tons [65]. 3.4 Global Palladium Supply - Demand Pattern - **Supply**: Russia, South Africa, Canada, and the United States are the main suppliers of global palladium. In 2024, Russia and South Africa's palladium output accounted for 43% and 41% of the global total respectively. The global palladium output increased slightly in 2024 [69][71]. - **Demand**: The main consumers of global palladium are China, the United States, Europe, and Japan. In 2024, the global palladium demand decreased by 4% to 254.2 tons, with a supply surplus of 2.4 tons [73][77]. 3.5 China's Platinum - Group Resource Pattern - **Resource Endowment**: China's platinum - group metal resources are extremely scarce, mainly distributed in Gansu, Yunnan, and other regions. In 2022, China's platinum - group metal reserves were 80.9 tons, and the resource reserves are decreasing [82]. - **Import Dependence**: China's platinum and palladium resources have a high degree of import dependence. In 2024, China imported 104.1 tons of platinum and 28.1 tons of palladium [86][88][92]. - **Domestic Demand**: In 2024, China consumed 64.4 tons of platinum and 68.9 tons of palladium. The demand for platinum in the automotive catalyst and chemical industries decreased, while the demand for palladium in the automotive catalyst field decreased significantly [97][101]. - **Import and Export and Taxes**: The import tariffs and value - added taxes of platinum and palladium vary according to the processing state. China's platinum is mainly imported from South Africa, and palladium is mainly imported from Russia and South Africa [110][111][114]. 3.6 Platinum and Palladium Price Review No detailed price review content is provided in the text, only a mention of historical price trends. 3.7 Guangzhou Futures Exchange Platinum and Palladium Futures - **Contract Text**: On November 7, 2025, the GZFE issued announcements on the palladium futures and palladium options contracts and related rules [126]. - **Risk Control System**: No detailed content is provided in the text. 3.8 Platinum and Palladium Options - **Option Contracts**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Risk Control System**: No detailed content is provided in the text. 3.9 Delivery Business - **Delivery Time**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Delivery Product Form and Premium/Discount**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Delivery Unit**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Delivery Handling Fee**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Warehousing and Out - of - Warehouse Fees**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Physical Delivery Method**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Delivery Quality Standard**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Warehouse Standard Warehouse Receipt Delivery**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Factory Warehouse Standard Warehouse Receipt Delivery**: No detailed content is provided in the text. 3.10 Platinum and Palladium Delivery Areas, Factories, and Warehouses - **Platinum Futures Delivery Area Factories**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Palladium Futures Delivery Area Factories**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Platinum and Palladium Futures Delivery Warehouses**: No detailed content is provided in the text. 3.11 Platinum and Palladium Designated Quality Inspection Institutions and Inspection Fees - **Platinum and Palladium Futures Quality Inspection Institution List**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Maximum Limit of Platinum Futures Inspection Fees**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **Maximum Limit of Palladium Futures Inspection Fees**: No detailed content is provided in the text. 3.12 Platinum and Palladium Delivery Brands - **List of Registered Brands for Platinum Futures (Domestic)**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **List of Registered Brands for Platinum Futures (Overseas)**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **List of Registered Brands for Palladium Futures (Domestic)**: No detailed content is provided in the text. - **List of Registered Brands for Palladium Futures (Overseas)**: No detailed content is provided in the text.

Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Quantitative CTA Weekly Tracking [1] - Research Institute: Guotou Futures Research Institute, Financial Engineering Group [2] - Report Date: November 25, 2025 [2] 1. Overall Commodity Market Conditions - The commodity market is currently dominated by short - term signals this week, with the factor intensity of the energy and chemical sector decreasing, and the black and agricultural product sectors showing an upward trend. The non - ferrous sector is relatively strong in the cross - section, while the energy sector is relatively weak. [4] - Gold's time - series momentum has declined, the trading volume of silver has changed little, and the divergence at both ends of the cross - section has narrowed. [4] 2. Sector - Specific Analysis Non - ferrous Sector - The position - holding factor of the non - ferrous sector has increased marginally, the divergence of cross - sectional momentum has narrowed, tin is strong, and alumina is weak in the cross - section. [4] - The non - ferrous sector has a time - series momentum of - 0.13, a cross - sectional momentum of 0.54, a term structure of 0.99, and a position - holding weight of 1.1. [7] Black Sector - The position - holding volume of coking coal and coke in the black sector remains low, but the short - term momentum in the time - series has rebounded. [4] - The black sector has a time - series momentum of - 0.42, a cross - sectional momentum of 0.18, a term structure of 0.29, and a position - holding weight of 0.79. [7] Energy Sector - The short - term momentum factor of the energy sector has declined, and the chemical sector is at the strong end of the cross - section. [4] - The energy sector has a time - series momentum of 0.02, a cross - sectional momentum of 0.74, a term structure of - 0.6, and a position - holding weight of 0.06. [7] Agricultural Product Sector - The cross - sectional divergence of oilseeds and meals has narrowed, and the long - term momentum of soybean oil is lower than that of soybean meal. [4] - The agricultural product sector has a time - series momentum of - 0.09, a cross - sectional momentum of 0.05, a term structure of 0.17, and a position - holding weight of - 0.16. [7] Precious Metal Sector - The precious metal sector has a time - series momentum of 0.37 and a position - holding weight of - 1.07. [7] Equity Index Sector - The equity index sector has a cross - sectional momentum of 0.49, a term structure of 0.68, and a position - holding weight of 2.15. [7] 3. Strategy Net Value and Fundamental Factors Analysis Methanol - Last week, the supply factor weakened by 0.02%, the demand factor increased by 0.03%, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.38%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.26%. This week, the comprehensive signal is short - term. [6] - The import arrival volume of methanol releases a short - term signal, the supply side is neutral to bearish; the raw material procurement volume of traditional downstream manufacturers has decreased, the demand side is bearish; the port inventory has decreased month - on - month, the inventory side has turned neutral; the Inner Mongolia - Shandong regional spread factor of methanol releases a long - term signal, and the spread side is neutral to bullish. [6] Float Glass - Last week, the inventory factor increased by 0.16%, and the synthetic factor strengthened by 0.13%. This week, the comprehensive signal is neutral. [10] - The capacity utilization rate of float glass enterprises is flat compared with last week, the supply side is neutral; the transaction area of commercial housing in second - tier cities has increased, the demand side is neutral to bullish; the inventory of Chinese float glass enterprises has increased from a decrease, the bullish strength of the inventory side has weakened and turned neutral; the loss of producing float glass from thermal coal has increased slightly, and the profit side is neutral to bearish. [10] Iron Ore - Last week, the supply factor decreased by 0.11%, the inventory factor weakened by 0.11%, and the comprehensive factor decreased by 0.06%. This week, the comprehensive signal has turned bullish. [11][13] - The shipping volumes from Australia and Brazil and the arrival volume at Tianjin Port have all decreased, and the supply - side signal has turned from bearish to bullish. The consumption volume of imported sintering ore powder by steel mills and the proportion of lump ore in the furnace have increased, the bearish feedback on the demand side has weakened, and the signal has turned neutral. The inventory of iron ore at major ports across the country has accumulated, the bullish feedback on the inventory side has weakened, and the signal remains neutral. The freight rate and spot price have increased slightly, the spread side has turned to bullish feedback, and the signal remains neutral. [13] Shanghai Aluminum - Last week, the supply factor decreased by 0.06%, the demand factor strengthened by 0.76%, the inventory factor increased by 0.83%, the spread factor strengthened by 0.7%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.56%. This week, the comprehensive signal has turned neutral. [13] - The price of domestic lead concentrates from SMM has decreased, the proportion of waste battery prices in the price of recycled refined lead has increased, and the supply - side signal has turned bullish. The cumulative registered and non - registered warehouse receipts of SHFE futures have increased, the bearish feedback on the inventory side has further strengthened, and the signal remains bearish. The spread between the near and far months of LME lead has widened, and the spread - side signal has turned bullish. [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the weekly trends of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon, presenting the latest logic changes, supply - demand situations, and price trends for each metal [1] Summary by Catalog Copper - **Market sentiment**: Both domestic and foreign prices are oscillating, with a rigid support at the LME average price. The market is trading the probability of the Fed's December interest rate cut, and the probability has rapidly increased [1] - **Domestic supply - demand**: The long - term negotiation of domestic copper concentrate processing fees is highly concerned. The spot import copper concentrate index is below $10. Domestic refined copper output in November is expected to decline month - on - month. In October, refined copper exports increased to 6.59 tons, and scrap copper imports reached 19.66 tons, with a cumulative supply increase of 1.99% in the first ten months. The output of major household appliances in October decreased month - on - month, and the market is watching the power - end orders. The domestic spot copper price passively follows the futures price, and there is a certain bullish sentiment in the spot market. The SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 tons to 18.06 tons [1] - **Overseas situation**: Freeport is expected to restart the production of the Indonesian Grasberg copper - gold mine before July 2026, with the 2026 production expected to be the same as in 2025. The market is concerned about the restrictions on scrap copper exports. Affected by UK tariffs, European scrap copper has flowed to the Americas, and the COMEX copper inventory has reached a record high of nearly 37 tons [1] - **Price trend**: Last week, the "head - and - shoulders" pattern of Shanghai copper was supported at a key position, and trading became oscillating again. The stop - loss position of previous short positions was lowered to 86,500 yuan, using the 11 - 10 - day moving average as the strength - weakness boundary [1] Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The price in Guinea is dropping towards $70, with an expected increase in ore supply. The domestic operating alumina production capacity is 9.61 million tons. Some enterprise overhauls or technological upgrades have short - term impacts, and there is no long - term production reduction. The alumina market is in significant oversupply, and the spot index is approaching the cash - loss level. Low - cost enterprises still have profits, and the price is weakly moving towards the support level of 2,000 yuan in the first half of the year [1] - **Supply**: The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is stable above 4 million tons. The first - phase 80 electrolytic cells of Tianshan Aluminum's second - phase project are gradually being put into production, and a 30,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of SPIC is planned to start production at the end of the year [1] - **Demand**: The SMM shows that the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises remains at 62%. In October, aluminum product exports decreased by 20,000 tons month - on - month to 48,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%; aluminum product exports decreased by 24,000 tons month - on - month to 290,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2% [1] - **Inventory and spot**: Last week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 33,000 tons to 613,000 tons, and the social inventory of aluminum rods decreased by 16,000 tons to 130,000 tons. The inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. The spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China have slightly narrowed, and the processing fee of South China aluminum rods has rebounded to 300 - 100 yuan [1] - **Price trend**: In the short term, the macro - sentiment is volatile, and the market risk preference is suppressed. The non - ferrous metals market has reduced positions and prices have declined. The fundamentals of the aluminum market have limited contradictions. After the price decline, downstream enterprises replenish stocks at low prices, with rigid demand but few highlights. The Shanghai aluminum price has fallen below the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, and the short - term upward trend has turned to oscillation, with a possible continued adjustment and support at around 21,100 yuan [1] Zinc - **Price trend**: The zinc price is weakly adjusting, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has narrowed [1] - **Spot and supply**: Under extreme domestic - foreign spreads, the export of zinc in November is expected to increase. The zinc inventory has increased to 47,325 tons, and the 0 - 3 - month spot premium is still at $140/ton. As the weather turns cold, domestic northern mines are gradually shutting down, and the supply of ore is further tightened. The TC of domestic and foreign mines is declining. The zinc price has fallen, and downstream enterprises are replenishing stocks at low prices. The SMM zinc social inventory has decreased to 151,000 tons. The split structure of domestic and foreign inventories is gradually being repaired, the import - ore smelting profit has improved, and domestic smelters' acceptance of imported ore has increased. Due to the high sulfuric acid price of 980 yuan/ton, the production - reduction expectation of domestic smelters in December is not strong, and the supply - reduction pressure of zinc ingots is not significantly weakened [1] - **Consumption**: The export of galvanized products is bright. Domestically, due to the weak real estate market, the slowdown of infrastructure investment growth, and the end of the photovoltaic and wind - power installation rush, the expected consumption increment is insufficient. As the northern weather turns cold, the demand enters the off - season, and downstream enterprises are cautious about future orders [1] - **Price trend**: Supported by smelting costs, with good external demand but weak domestic demand, be vigilant about the rapid change of capital sentiment. The Shanghai zinc price is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [1] Lead - **Price trend**: The LME lead has a high inventory, the domestic supply is increasing while the demand is weak, and long - position holders are leaving the market. Both domestic and foreign prices have dropped sharply, with the LME lead falling 3.73% and the Shanghai lead falling 1.91% last week. The import window for lead has opened [1] - **Spot and supply**: The LME lead inventory is at a high level of 282,000 tons. The supply of domestic lead concentrate is tight, with the imported ore TC at - 100 to - 90 dollars/dry ton and the domestic PB50 lead concentrate at 200 - 100 yuan/metal ton. The SMM lead social inventory has decreased to 37,000 tons, and the finished - product inventory of recycled lead enterprises has decreased to 2,400 tons, the lowest since 2021. There are both overhauls and restarts in primary and recycled lead smelters. In the short term, the supply of recycled lead is slightly tight, and the price difference between refined and recycled lead has narrowed to 25 yuan/ton. The SMM 1 lead's discount to the near - month contract has narrowed to 65 yuan/ton. The import window opened intermittently in November, and the overseas replenishment is expected to reach the October level. Pay attention to the production dynamics of recycled smelters after profit pressure [1] - **Consumption**: From January to October, the cumulative export of lead - acid batteries was 186 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.31%. Affected by tariffs and the improvement of overseas battery supply capacity, there is no expected increment in battery exports at the end of the year. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, the terminal consumption of batteries has not improved significantly, and different battery production enterprises have different order performances. Enterprises produce according to sales. The finished - product inventory of battery enterprises is 15 - 17 days, and the raw - material inventory is 3 - 1 days. Domestic consumption lacks growth expectations but has rigid demand [1] - **Price trend**: There is a game between cost and consumption. The Shanghai lead price is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market situation**: The Shanghai nickel price is oscillating downward, with dull trading and increasing positions; the Shanghai stainless - steel price is also declining, with decreasing trading volume [1] - **Demand**: In the stainless - steel spot market, the nickel premium is 500 yuan, and the electrowon nickel premium is 250 yuan. The Jinchuan spot price is resistant to decline, and the high - nickel ferrochrome price is 89 yuan/nickel point. The support brought by the previous price rebound is weakening, and the overall price of the industrial chain is under pressure. A large stainless - steel manufacturer has announced the procurement prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome, weakening the cost support, and the spot price is difficult to change the weak situation [1] - **Spot and supply**: The Jinchuan premium is 4,350 yuan. The pure nickel inventory has decreased by 900 tons to 52,300 tons, the ferro - nickel inventory has increased by 700 tons to 30,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased by 12,000 tons to 940,000 tons [1] - **Conclusion**: The Shanghai nickel market will reduce inventory, but short - selling is the main strategy [1] Tin - **Market situation**: The domestic and foreign tin prices are oscillating at a high level. The Shanghai tin market has reduced positions, but the enthusiasm of long - term funds for trading is still high. Pay attention to the situation in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo again, and the Shanghai tin price has repeatedly tested 295,000 yuan [1] - **Supply**: In October, the physical volume of domestic tin concentrate imports was at a high - low level, with the main importing countries contributing to the increment. The situation in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo is tense, and a landslide in a tin mine has caused heavy casualties among manual miners, but there is no news about Alpha Tin's production and sales [1] - **Consumption**: There are few domestic highlights. The household appliance output in October decreased month - on - month, and the consumer electronics market is average. The SMM social inventory has increased by 211 tons to 2,050 tons, the LME inventory is 3,085 tons, and the 0 - 3 - month spot premium has expanded to $114. The domestic and foreign inventories are lower than the same period in the previous two years, and the situation is relatively neutral [1] - **Price trend**: Continuously track the news from the Democratic Republic of the Congo. After the previous high - position short positions stop - loss at 295,000 yuan, short - selling is the main strategy, and out - of - the - money call options can be used to hedge risks [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Market situation**: Last week, the lithium carbonate futures had a strong start at the beginning of the week and a weak end at the weekend, with active trading and significant capital movement [1] - **Spot**: The Shanghai lithium carbonate spot price has continued to rise, reaching 92,000 yuan. The price difference between industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate is 2,400 yuan/ton. Lithium salt factories are operating at a high - capacity utilization rate, and overseas mines are raising prices and frequently releasing goods [1] - **Demand**: Downstream material factories are actively producing, with both supply and demand booming. The production plans of battery and cathode - material enterprises in November are continuously improving, and the inventory of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to decrease [1] - **Supply**: The total market inventory has decreased by 200 tons to 118,000 tons, the smelter inventory has decreased by 2,170 tons to 26,000 tons, the downstream inventory has decreased by 3,300 tons to 49,000 tons, and the trader inventory has increased by 3,150 tons to 48,000 tons. The sentiment in the intermediate link has recovered, and the spot market has certain support. The latest price of Australian mines is $1,130, and the mine - end price remains strong [1] - **Price trend**: The futures price is oscillating violently at a high level, with large market differences, and risk control should be the priority [1] Industrial Silicon - **Price**: Last week, the "anti - involution" measure of joint production reduction by the organic silicon industry boosted the market sentiment. The price broke through the previous high of 800 yuan/ton but failed to maintain, and then fell back to around 9,000 yuan/ton to oscillate [1] - **Supply - demand**: The weekly operating rate in Xinjiang is stable at 8% (unchanged month - on - month), and the operating rates in Yunnan and Sichuan are also unchanged month - on - month. Sichuan will enter the dry - water period at the end of November, and the operating rate may decline. The domestic polysilicon production in November is expected to be close to 120,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from October (affected by seasonal shutdowns), and the production in December is expected to decline slightly [1] - **Demand**: The domestic organic silicon printing price has increased to 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of about 850 yuan/ton. The actual - controller meeting of downstream factories has reached a consensus on production reduction, which will be implemented on December 1, and it is expected to reduce the demand for industrial silicon by about 400 tons per month [1] - **Inventory**: The SMM industrial silicon rod and powder inventory is 548,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons. Among them, the inventory in ordinary warehouses is 129,000 tons (an increase of 2,000 tons), and the inventory in bonded warehouses is 419,000 tons (unchanged) [1] - **Summary**: The expected production reduction in the organic silicon industry is expected to have a limited impact on the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon. In the short term, the futures price will maintain an oscillating trend. Track the organic silicon price dynamics, and the downstream price - fixing repair may further drive market fluctuations [1] Polysilicon - **Price**: The polysilicon price has remained stable [1] - **Supply**: Affected by seasonal factors, the polysilicon industry's production plan in November has decreased by 14,000 tons compared to October, and there is an expected downward adjustment in December. After the overseas demand recedes, the domestic demand for silicon wafers has also declined, and the intensified industry competition has put pressure on the external procurement demand for silicon wafers [1] - **Inventory**: The SMM data shows that the polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 259,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 2,000 tons [1] - **Price trend**: Currently, the prices and production plans of downstream silicon wafers and battery wafers in the photovoltaic industry chain are continuously weakening. Although the polysilicon industry itself is showing a month - on - month production - reduction trend, the actual effect of the marginal improvement in supply - demand is limited. In the short term, the polysilicon futures price is affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment on the one hand and its own fundamentals on the other hand, and is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [1]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the Brent 01 contract rising 1.41%. The Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk is entangled between sanctions and peace talks. Supply and demand face greater inventory accumulation expectations in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices remains. Focus on the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan negotiation and the Venezuelan geopolitical risk [1] Precious Metals - Overnight precious metals rose. As several Fed officials advocated a December rate cut, the implied rate cut probability in the interest rate market rose to 80%. The market is uncertain, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels waiting for a directional breakthrough [2] Copper - Overnight copper prices oscillated. LME copper rose with precious metals at the end of the session. The domestic spot market has a certain bullish sentiment, and the SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 million tons to 18.06 million tons [3] Aluminum - Overnight SHFE aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and bars decreased by 0.8 million tons on Monday. The aluminum price may continue to adjust, with support around 21,100 yuan [4] Alumina - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It will operate weakly before large-scale production cuts [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 20,700 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and it will continue to follow the aluminum price, with the possibility of a narrowing spread with AL [6] Zinc - Domestic and overseas mine TC continued to decline. SHFE zinc oscillated in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The external demand supports zinc consumption, but the domestic demand is expected to weaken [7] Lead - SHFE lead oscillated in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton. The export of lead-acid batteries is expected to remain under pressure [8] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel rebounded, and stainless steel inventory decreased. However, the short-term contradiction lies in the macro level, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [9] Tin - LME tin closed higher, and SHFE tin oscillated at high levels. It is still advisable to short, and at the same time, match with out-of-the-money call options to hedge risks [10] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate opened low and moved lower. The market is highly divergent, and risk control should be prioritized [11] Polysilicon - The fundamentals of polysilicon are weak. The futures price will maintain an oscillating pattern [12] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. It will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [13] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures oscillated strongly overnight. The fundamentals are marginally looser, and the price is expected to oscillate [15] Coke - The coke price oscillated. It may oscillate weakly [16] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated weakly. It may oscillate weakly [17] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon price oscillated. The bottom support is expected to move down [18] Silicon Ferrosilicon - The silicon ferrosilicon price oscillated. The bottom support will be tested [19] Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Both high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils face pressure from abundant supply and weak demand [21] Asphalt - The asphalt price is expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [22] Group 2: Chemicals Urea - Urea supply remains sufficient. The market may return to a stalemate [23] Methanol - The methanol futures rose sharply. It is advisable to try to go long on the 5 - 9 spread at low prices [24] Pure Benzene - It is advisable to continue the idea of shorting on rebounds and consider option allocation [25] Styrene - The supply and demand of styrene are in a tight balance, but the support from the cost and demand sides is questionable [26] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The market lacks guidance. Polyethylene supply pressure increases, and polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly [27] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may follow the cost. Caustic soda will operate weakly [28] PX and PTA - PX is still strong before new capacity is put into production. PTA is driven by cost [29] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol price has a short-term rebound expectation, but the rebound space is limited [30] Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials. Bottle chip is cost-driven [31] Group 3: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of La Niña on South American soybean production [35] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Soybean oil and palm oil will oscillate in the short term. Palm oil is weaker [36] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market focuses on Australian seeds. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [37] Domestic Soybeans - Domestic soybeans rebounded strongly. Pay attention to the spot market and policy guidance [38] Corn - The corn futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [39] Live Hogs - The far-month hog futures rose, and the near-month is weak. The price may form a double bottom [40] Eggs - The number of newly laid hens is expected to decrease in December. Pay attention to the spot price [41] Cotton - The cotton futures may oscillate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see [42] Sugar - The international sugar supply is sufficient. Pay attention to the production in India, Thailand, and Guangxi [43] Apples - The apple futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the inventory removal [44] Wood - The wood futures oscillated. It is advisable to wait and see [45] Pulp - The pulp futures fell slightly. It is advisable to wait and see [46] Group 4: Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - A-shares rose in a shrinking volume. The short-term macro liquidity is uncertain. It is advisable to wait and see [47] Treasury Bond Futures - The treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve may flatten slightly [48] Group 5: Shipping Container Freight Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European route index rose sharply. The 02 contract may maintain a discount [20]

Group 1: Energy and Metals - International oil prices rebounded overnight, with the Brent 01 contract up 1.41%. The Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk is entangled between sanctions and peace talks. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices remains [1]. - Precious metals rose overnight. With multiple Fed officials advocating a December rate cut, the implied probability of a rate cut in the interest rate market rose to 80%. The market is uncertain, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels [2]. - Copper prices oscillated overnight. The domestic spot market shows a certain bullish sentiment, and the SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 million tons to 18.06 million tons [3]. - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly overnight. The inventory decreased, and the demand has resilience but lacks highlights. The price adjustment may continue, with support at around 21,100 yuan [4]. - Alumina supply is in an oversupply pattern, and it will mainly operate weakly before large-scale production cuts [5]. - Cast aluminum alloy continues to follow the aluminum price, and the spread with AL may narrow [6]. - Zinc prices found support at the 60 - day moving average. The LME zinc 0 - 3 month spot premium remains high. The rebound height of Shanghai zinc is limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Lead prices are looking for support at the annual line. The export of lead - acid batteries is expected to remain under pressure. Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the stainless - steel cost support continues to move down [9]. - Tin prices are mainly considered for short - selling, and call options can be used to hedge risks [10]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices oscillated sharply at high levels, and risk control should be prioritized [11]. - Polysilicon futures prices maintain an oscillating pattern due to weak supply and demand [12]. - Industrial silicon futures maintain an oscillating operation, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of silicone prices [13]. - Steel prices oscillated narrowly at night. Supply pressure is gradually easing, and demand is still weak. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range [14]. - Iron ore fundamentals are becoming more relaxed, and the price is expected to oscillate [15]. - Coke prices may oscillate weakly [16]. - Coking coal prices may oscillate weakly [17]. - Silicomanganese prices oscillated. The bottom support expectation has moved down [18]. - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated. The bottom support will be tested [19]. - The SCFIS European route index rose significantly. The 02 contract may maintain a discount, and the price of the 12 contract has limited up - and - down space [20]. - Both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils face pressure from abundant supply and weak demand [21]. - Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [22]. Group 2: Chemicals - Urea supply is sufficient, and the market may return to a stalemate [23]. - Methanol futures rose sharply. You can try to go long on the 5 - 9 spread at low prices, but beware of weak reality [24]. - Pure benzene continues the idea of short - selling on rebounds, and options can be considered for allocation [25]. - Styrene supply and demand are in a tight balance, but the sustainability of support is questionable, and the rebound height is limited [26]. - Polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene prices have certain low - level support, but the supply pressure of polyethylene increases, and the demand of polypropylene and polyethylene is weak [27]. - PVC may follow the cost, and caustic soda runs weakly [28]. - PX is still strong before new capacity is put into production, and PTA is mainly driven by cost [29]. - Ethylene glycol prices have a short - term rebound expectation, but the rebound space is limited [30]. - Short - fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials, and bottle - chip prices are mainly driven by cost [31]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Soybean meal futures rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production and wait for the Sino - US trade agreement [35]. - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Palm oil supply is increasing while demand is weak [36]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil prices are supported by supply shortages. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [37]. - Domestic soybeans rebounded strongly. Pay attention to the spot market and policy guidance [38]. - Corn futures oscillated at a high level. There are still differences in the new - season corn output. Pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [39]. - Live hog futures had a large increase in the far - month contract. The price may have a second bottoming next year [40]. - Egg prices: Pay attention to the spot price performance and the convergence of the basis [41]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in a range. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. - Sugar prices: International supply is sufficient, and domestic production expectations are good. Pay attention to production progress [43]. - Apple prices oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the inventory reduction situation [44]. - Wood prices oscillated. Low inventory supports prices, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - Pulp prices fell slightly. Supply is loose, demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [46]. Group 4: Financial Instruments - A - shares rose in a narrow range with shrinking volume. The short - term macro - liquidity uncertainty restricts the market. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. - Treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve may flatten slightly, but there may be phased adjustments [48].