Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/ bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability in the market [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, similar to crude oil, with a bias but limited operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, same as above [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, with a bias but limited operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability and a wait - and - see approach [1] Core Viewpoints - The global oil market will have supply surpluses of 1.84 million barrels per day and 3.31 million barrels per day this year and next year respectively, and the surplus will gradually expand quarter by quarter. There is still a downward risk in the crude oil market this year [1] - The fuel oil market is affected by geopolitical factors, and the upward drive for high - sulfur cracking is limited. The low - sulfur market has improved fundamentals [2] - The 2601 asphalt contract has some support at 3000 yuan/ton, and the fundamental bearish factors still suppress the market in the medium - to - long term [3] - The LPG market is expected to fluctuate strongly due to tightened supply - demand margins [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Based on the latest adjustments of the supply - demand balance sheets by three major institutions in November, considering OPEC+ suspending production increases and strictly implementing production cut compensation in the first quarter of next year, the global oil market will have supply surpluses of 1.84 million barrels per day and 3.31 million barrels per day this year and next year respectively. The supply surplus will gradually expand quarter by quarter, and the most relaxed quarter (Q1 next year) has not arrived yet. Since the fourth quarter, the inventory accumulation rate of global oil at 2.4% has exceeded that of the previous three quarters, and the supply surplus is increasingly evident in the inventory. There is still a downward risk in the crude oil market this year, and attention should be paid to the realization of geopolitical risks related to Venezuela [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The drone attack on Russia's Novorossiysk today damaged the oil terminal facilities, driving up the prices of crude - related products, and fuel oil followed suit. In terms of fundamentals, high - sulfur fuel oil is still supported by geopolitical factors in the short term. Sanctions and attacks on Russia continue to disrupt the supply side, and the possible further sanctions on Venezuela by the US also bring uncertainties. However, the actual reduction in supply needs further observation. The demand side is at the end of the power - generation peak season, and the increase in Middle - East supply offsets the impact, and the demand for refinery feedstock is also weak, so the upward drive for high - sulfur cracking is limited. The low - sulfur market has seen a relief in supply pressure due to unstable operation of overseas refineries. The strengthening of the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel provides support from the perspective of production conversion. Coupled with the peak season of bunker fuel demand in the fourth quarter and the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the fundamentals have improved compared with the previous period [2] Asphalt - The 2601 contract has some support at 3000 yuan/ton. The worse - than - expected shipment volume not only disproves the expectation of rush - demand in the final year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" but also sends a negative signal that the demand is lower than the same period last year. The destocking of the latest commercial inventory continues to slow down, and the year - on - year increase in social inventory has widened after reaching an inflection point of being higher than the same period last year at the end of October. In the medium - to - long term, the bearish fundamentals still suppress the BU market [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The international LPG market has been trending strongly recently, and the supply of imported resources is tight. The improved profitability of butane dehydrogenation plants has boosted the enthusiasm of downstream chemical enterprises to start production, and the significant cooling in many places has led to an improvement in combustion - end demand. The storage capacity utilization rates of refineries and ports have decreased. The tightening of supply - demand margins has boosted the LPG market to be regarded as fluctuating strongly [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slight bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends and poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, with a slight bearish bias and limited operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, showing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term balance and poor operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, with a slight bearish bias and limited operability [1] Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as government policies, economic data, and supply - demand relationships. Different metals show different trends and investment opportunities [1][2][3][4][5] Summary by Metal Copper - The Shanghai copper market rebounded this week, but both domestic and foreign copper prices faced resistance at 88,000 yuan and $11,000. The US government ended the shutdown, and the market focused on economic growth. Short - term short positions can be traded against 88,000 yuan, and the copper price is in a volatile state [1] Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum price fell from a high. The short - term fundamentals are stable, and the inventory and spot performance are neutral. The downstream procurement weakened, and the fundamentals deteriorated. The price is under pressure near 17,800 yuan/ton. The consumption expectation may improve in the short term, but the support for high prices is insufficient. Alumina is in a state of oversupply and is weakly operating [2][3] Zinc - The Fed officials' hawkish remarks led to a decline in the zinc price. The LME zinc inventory increased slightly, and the SMM zinc social inventory decreased. The domestic smelter profit is under pressure, and some smelters have cut production. The support for the decline of Shanghai zinc is seen at the 20 - day moving average [2] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The decline of Shanghai nickel accelerated. The nickel industry chain is in an overall over - supply situation. The mainstream stainless steel mills cancelled the price limit and lowered the price. The market is sluggish, and the nickel price is weakly operating [4] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price is in a high - level shock. The downstream battery orders increased, and the total inventory decreased. The ore price strengthened again. It is expected to be in a slightly strong shock in the short term [5] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures weakened slightly. The supply decreased during the dry season in the southwest, but the demand was dragged down. The short - term market is under pressure at a high level and continues to fluctuate [5] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures rose slightly, and the trading volume decreased. The photovoltaic terminal demand is weak, and the supply - demand improvement is limited. The market is driven by policy expectations and continues to fluctuate in the short term [5] Tin - The Shanghai tin price gave back yesterday's gains. The market follows the sector sentiment, and the mid - long - term short positions can be held against 295,000 yuan [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (implies a certain state, but unclear from the context whether it's bullish or bearish) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ (bearish, with a downward trend but low operability) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ (not clear from context, just following the format) [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ (not clear from context, just following the format) [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ (not clear from context, just following the format) [1] - Plastic: ★★★ (bullish, with a clear upward trend and investment opportunities) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ (not clear from context, just following the format) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (bullish, with a clear upward trend and investment opportunities) [1] - PTA: ★★★ (bullish, with a clear upward trend and investment opportunities) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ (bearish, with a downward trend but low operability) [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ (bullish, with a clear upward trend and investment opportunities) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (bullish, with a clear upward trend and investment opportunities) [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (bullish, with a clear upward trend and investment opportunities) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ (bearish, with a downward trend but low operability) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall supply in the chemical market is relatively loose, and the demand is generally weak, with different products showing different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4][5][6][7] - For some products, such as methanol and ethylene glycol, there are downward pressure and bearish expectations; while for others like plastic and soda ash, there are upward trends and investment opportunities [1][2][7] Summaries by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The two - olefin futures contracts rose slightly after an intraday high - low movement. The supply is loose, the production enterprises want to stabilize the market, but the trading is average. The demand for propylene has some support due to the resumption of previously shut - down butanol and octanol plants [2] - The plastic and polypropylene futures contracts rose slightly. The supply of polyethylene is stable, but the demand from packaging and shed film factories is weakening. The supply pressure of polypropylene is increasing slightly, and the market has supply - demand contradictions [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The overseas gasoline market is strong, leading to an increase in the outflow of Asian pure benzene and toluene. The price of unified benzene has some elasticity, but the downstream profits are weak, so the rebound height should be viewed cautiously [3] - The styrene futures contract rose significantly. The overseas market provides support, but the future supply is expected to increase [3] Polyester - The PX price rebound drives up the PTA price, but considering the weakening demand and uncertain overseas demand, a cautious bullish view is taken [4] - The weekly output of ethylene glycol increased slightly, and the supply pressure is large. A bearish view is maintained in the medium - term, and attention should be paid to the device dynamics [4] - The short - fiber market has a good spot pattern but weakening demand expectations. The bottle - chip demand is weakening, and the long - term pressure is over - capacity [4] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures price dropped significantly. The import volume is high, the port inventory is accumulating, and the traditional downstream demand is weak. It may continue to be under pressure in the short - term [5] - The urea futures price fluctuated narrowly. The new device in Xinjiang is producing, and the industrial compound fertilizer production is increasing. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate in a range with a slightly rising price center [5] Chlor - Alkali Industry - The PVC price fluctuated strongly. The cancellation of the Indian BIS certification has little impact, and the market is in a supply - high - demand - low situation, expected to fluctuate narrowly [6] - The caustic soda price showed an oscillating trend. The upstream cost is rising, the price is weakening, and the supply is high while the demand is insufficient [6] Soda Ash - Glass - The soda ash price fluctuated strongly. The light - soda market is okay, the cost is rising, and the supply is high in the long - term, showing an oversupply situation [7] - The glass price decreased with increased positions. The intermediate inventory is high, the cost is rising, and the processing orders are improving but still insufficient compared to the same period last year. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold and silver are both rated ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. 2) Core Viewpoints - Overnight, precious metals fluctuated greatly with a rise and then a fall. With the end of the longest government shutdown in US history, the market is waiting for economic data to weigh the economic and monetary policy prospects. Most Fed officials' speeches are hawkish, showing significant differences. The White House warns that the October non - farm and inflation data may not be released. International gold and silver have limited short - term upward drivers, and attention should be paid to the resistance at the previous high [1]. - Trump said the government shutdown caused a loss of $15 trillion, and it will take weeks or months to truly calculate the overall impact of the loss. The US White House National Economic Council Director Hasset said the October employment report will be released soon without the unemployment rate, and the Q4 GDP is expected to decline by 1.5% due to the government shutdown. He sees few reasons not to cut interest rates [1]. - Fed hawks continue to send cautious signals. Daly said it's too early to say whether there will be an interest - rate cut in December; Musalem believes policy is approaching neutral with limited easing space; the most hawkish official Harker thinks the current interest rate is hardly restrictive and needs to remain so to curb inflation; Kashkari doesn't support the October interest - rate cut and there are reasons for both cutting and not cutting in December [2]. 3) Other Summaries - Red stars represent a predicted upward trend, green stars represent a predicted downward trend. One star means a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading operability; two stars mean holding long/short positions with a clear trend; three stars mean a clearer long/short trend and appropriate investment opportunities. White stars mean a short - term balanced state with poor trading operability and suggest waiting and seeing [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the weekly price - volume data of various futures, including precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy chemicals, agricultural products, livestock products, and financial futures, as well as the year - to - date price changes and the weekly changes in average daily positions and precipitation funds [2][3][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Futures Price - Volume Overview - **Precious Metals**: Gold closed at 953.20 with a weekly increase of 3.47%, and silver at 12,351.00 with a 7.55% increase [2] - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Copper closed at $86,900.00 with a 1.12% increase, while nickel at 117,080.00 with a 1.98% decrease [2] - **Black Metals**: Iron ore closed at $772.50 with a 1.58% increase, and coke at 1,669.50 with a 4.95% decrease [2] - **Energy Chemicals**: Crude oil closed at $457.40 with a 0.69% decrease, and LPG at 4,350.00 with a 1.83% increase [2] - **Agricultural Products**: Apple closed at $9,570.00 with a 5.86% increase, and cotton at 13,450.00 with a 0.96% decrease [2] - **Livestock Products**: Eggs closed at $3,033.00 with a 5.78% decrease, and pigs at 11,775.00 with a 0.76% decrease [2] - **Financial Futures**: IC closed at $7,137.40 with a 1.28% decrease, and T at 108.42 with a 0.03% decrease [3] 3.2 Year - to - Date Price Changes - Silver had the highest increase of 65.34%, while some products like TF had a decrease of 12.89% [12] 3.3 Weekly Changes in Average Daily Positions - Stainless steel, short - fiber, tin, glass, and rapeseed oil had a significant increase in positions [14] 3.4 Weekly Changes in Precipitation Funds - Silver, gold, tin, glass, and rapeseed oil attracted more capital attention [15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities, including energy, metals, and agricultural products, and provides investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and macro - economic conditions. For example, it suggests short - term trading opportunities in oil and copper, and provides outlooks on the price trends of other commodities such as aluminum, zinc, and lithium carbonate. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: After OPEC and IEA adjusted their balance sheet forecasts, and EIA crude oil inventories increased by 641,300 barrels last week, there is still room for the oil price to decline this year. Traders are advised to look for opportunities to short on price rebounds [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by Russian supply risks but is offset by OPEC+ production increases. Low - sulfur fuel oil benefits from supply pressure relief and demand improvement in the fourth - quarter shipping season. The previously - laid out strategy of widening the high - low sulfur spread has been gradually realized, and it is advisable to consider closing positions [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: The international LPG market is strong, with tight import supply. Improved profitability of butane dehydrogenation devices and increased demand for combustion due to cooling weather have tightened supply - demand, so LPG is expected to be strong [23]. - **Natural Gas**: No relevant information provided. - **Coal**: - **Coking Coal**: With Mongolian coal imports at a high level and a slight decline in coking coal mine production, the overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream demand is weak. The coking coal price is expected to be strong in a volatile manner [17]. - **Thermal Coal**: No relevant information provided. - **Urea**: Market rumors of the release of the fifth batch of export quotas support the market, but caution is needed during the key storage period. Xinjiang Zhongneng's new device is producing, and industrial demand is increasing. The market is expected to oscillate with a slightly upward price center [24]. - **Methanol**: The methanol futures contract is in a low - level oscillation. Port inventories are increasing, overseas device operation rates are high, and downstream demand is weak. However, the valuation is low, and the market may rebound with positive news [25]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: After the US government ended its shutdown, the sustainability of the upward movement of international gold and silver is questionable, and attention should be paid to the resistance at previous high levels [2]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: After the US government ended its shutdown, the market focused on economic growth. Domestic copper inventories increased, and the copper price is in a short - term oscillation. Short - term high - level short positions can be traded against 88,000 yuan [3]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - environment is positive, and the long - term supply - demand of the aluminum market is promising. The short - term fundamentals are stable, and the price has reached a three - year high. Attention should be paid to capital trends [4]. - **Zinc**: Overseas smelter profits are recovering, and domestic smelters are reducing production. The gap between domestic and foreign fundamentals is narrowing. It is advisable to close long - short cross - market arbitrage positions and consider short - long cross - market arbitrage [7]. - **Lead**: No relevant information provided. - **Nickel**: The nickel market is affected by overall over - supply, and the price is weak. Stainless steel prices are also under pressure [9]. - **Tin**: The tin market is trading on the tight current situation, but the trend of inventory reduction is unclear. From a fundamental perspective, short positions can be considered for the long - term [10]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is in an over - supply situation, and the price is weak with limited rebound space [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price, and there is no obvious driving force for the price difference [5]. - **Ferroalloys**: - **Silicon Manganese**: The price is oscillating, with a large - scale steel mill's tender price unchanged. Iron - water production has increased, and the silicon - manganese inventory is slowly increasing. The price has strong bottom support [18]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is oscillating, with a large - scale steel mill's tender price increasing. Demand is resilient, and supply is high. The price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [19]. Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. Rebar demand has declined slightly, and hot - rolled coil demand is stable. The negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain remains, and the market is expected to oscillate [14]. - **Cement**: No relevant information provided. - **Glass**: The glass market is weak, with high intermediate inventories. The cost has increased, and the profit has narrowed. The price is expected to have limited decline space, and it is advisable to wait and see [32]. - **Gypsum Board**: No relevant information provided. Chemicals - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The propylene market supply is loose, and demand is supported to some extent. Polyethylene demand is weakening, and polypropylene prices are showing signs of stabilizing [28]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a narrow - range oscillation. The cancellation of India's BIS certification has little impact, and the market is supply - high and demand - low. Caustic soda is in an oscillating trend, with cost increasing and demand weak [29]. - **Pure Benzene**: Overseas gasoline prices are strong, and the price of pure benzene has elasticity, but downstream profits are weak, and caution is needed when looking at the rebound height [26]. - **Styrene**: The overseas market is strong, but domestic supply is expected to increase [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol is under pressure, and the demand is expected to weaken in the medium - term. A short - term bearish view is maintained [30]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, but demand is expected to weaken. Bottle - chip demand is weakening, and the long - term problem of over - capacity exists [31]. - **PTA & PX**: Affected by the tight overseas aromatic hydrocarbon market, PX and PTA prices have rebounded, but there is still an expectation of industry production reduction. Caution is needed when being bullish [29]. - **Asphalt**: The decline of asphalt has slowed down, and the demand is lower than expected. The inventory reduction has slowed down, and the long - term fundamentals are bearish [22]. Agricultural Products - **Grains**: - **Corn**: The selling progress of corn in Northeast China is slower than expected, and the price is stable and slightly strong. The price of wheat is weakening. The Dalian corn futures contract is expected to be weak at the bottom [39]. - **Rice**: No relevant information provided. - **Oilseeds & Oils**: - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: US soybeans have reached a recent high. The planting progress of new - season soybeans in South America is slow, and attention should be paid to the USDA November supply - demand report. There may be opportunities to go long at low prices after Sino - US trade eases [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: This week, attention should be paid to the USDA supply - demand report. Rapeseed oil is strong, soybean oil follows, and palm oil has a weak follow - up. The price of palm oil is oscillating, and attention should be paid to its supply - demand and the trend of surrounding oils [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil is strong, with inventory declining. The Canadian bio - fuel incentive plan boosts demand. The rapeseed price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, and the oil - strong and meal - weak situation is expected to continue [37]. - **Sugar**: International sugar supply is sufficient, and the US sugar price faces pressure. In China, the market focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate, and the production expectation in Guangxi is good [43]. - **Cotton**: Before the release of the US agricultural report, the market is cautious. The new - cotton cost provides support, but the demand is average. It is advisable to wait and see [42]. - **Fruits**: - **Apples**: The apple price has risen sharply. The inventory has decreased year - on - year, and the short - term price is strong. In the long - term, there may be inventory pressure on the far - month contract [44]. - **Oranges**: No relevant information provided. - **Livestock & Poultry**: - **Pigs**: The far - month futures price of pigs is rising, and the near - month price follows. The spot price is weak. The market is trading on the expectation of capacity reduction, and the price is expected to have a second bottom in the first half of next year [40]. - **Chickens**: No relevant information provided. - **Eggs**: The egg futures price is falling, and the supply is at a high level. High - level short positions can be held, and attention should be paid to spot performance and old - hen culling [41]. Others - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) is in an oscillating pattern. The realization of the price increase in December is in question, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate [20]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures price has risen, and the inventory has increased. The overseas price is strong, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. It is advisable to hold long positions cautiously [46]. - **Timber**: The timber price is weak, with high external quotes and low domestic prices. The demand provides support, and the inventory is low. It is advisable to wait and see [45]. - **Stock Index**: A - shares opened low and closed high, and the stock index futures rose. Overseas markets are weak, and the risk preference has declined. Technology and advanced manufacturing are still the mid - term focus, and attention can be paid to the recovery opportunities of consumer and cyclical sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures have declined, and the stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious. The market risk preference change may bring new opportunities [48].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Not clearly indicated, but based on analysis, it's a wait - and - see situation [2] - Paper pulp: One star, representing a bullish bias but limited trading operability [1] - Sugar: Not clearly indicated, but expected to be weak [3] - Apple: Not clearly indicated, short - term expected to be strong [4] - Timber: Not clearly indicated, wait - and - see [7] - 20 - number rubber: One star, representing a bullish bias but limited trading operability [1] - Natural rubber: One star, representing a bullish bias but limited trading operability [1] - Butadiene rubber: One star, representing a bullish bias but limited trading operability [1] Core Views - Cotton: Zhengzhou cotton is weak with a risk of downward break - out. New cotton cost provides support, but demand is average, and price increases face hedging pressure. The cotton yarn market is stable, and it's advisable to wait and see [2] - Sugar: Brazilian production data is neutral, and the domestic market may control syrup imports. The market focuses on the next season's output estimate, and sugar prices are expected to be weak [3] - Apple: Futures prices have risen significantly. Cold - storage inventory is down year - on - year, and short - term prices are strong. Long - term, de - stocking is the key point [4] - 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, and synthetic rubber: Futures prices are rising, demand is slowly increasing, supply pressure is easing, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [5] - Paper pulp: Futures prices are rising, inventory is decreasing, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. It's advisable to hold long positions cautiously [6] - Timber: Futures prices are weak, supply may remain low, demand provides support, and it's advisable to wait and see [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Price movement: Zhengzhou cotton is slightly down and weak, with a risk of downward break - out [2] - Cost and supply: New cotton cost is basically determined, with lower costs in northern Xinjiang. As of November 6, the national cumulative processed lint cotton is 319.3 million tons, up 59.5 million tons year - on - year [2] - Demand: The cotton yarn market is stable, with downstream mills buying as needed [2] - Strategy: Wait and see [2] Sugar - International market: Brazilian production data in the first half of October is neutral, and the production season is coming to an end [3] - Domestic market: Zhengzhou sugar is weakly volatile, and there may be controls on syrup imports. The focus is on the next season's output estimate [3] - Strategy: Sugar prices are expected to be weak [3] Apple - Spot market: Acquisition in Shandong is nearing completion, and cold - storage trading has started in the northwest [4] - Inventory: As of November 13, the national cold - storage apple inventory is 7.3577 million tons, down 12% year - on - year [4] - Strategy: Short - term prices are strong, and long - term de - stocking is the key [4] 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, and synthetic rubber - Price movement: Futures prices are rising, and spot prices are stable [5] - Supply: Global natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, and the domestic butadiene rubber device operating rate has increased slightly [5] - Demand: The domestic tire operating rate has slightly increased, and the inventory of Shandong tire enterprises has increased [5] - Inventory: The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao has increased, and the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber has increased [5] - Strategy: There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [5] Paper pulp - Price movement: Futures prices are rising, and spot prices are following [6] - Inventory: As of November 6, the inventory in mainstream ports is 2.008 million tons, down 53,000 tons from the previous period [6] - Market sentiment: There is a risk of a short squeeze, and it's advisable to hold long positions cautiously [6] Timber - Price movement: Futures prices are weak, and spot prices are stable [7] - Supply: New Zealand's radiata pine price has increased, and domestic imports may remain low [7] - Demand: The export volume is above 60,000 cubic meters, providing support for prices [7] - Inventory: The total inventory is low, and inventory pressure is small [7] - Strategy: Wait and see [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overnight, precious metals continued their strong rebound, with silver showing elasticity. The end of the US government shutdown and market expectations of potential Fed rate cuts have led to a short - term shift to rate - cut trading, making commodities generally stronger. However, whether precious metals can regain their upward momentum remains to be confirmed, and international gold and silver are facing resistance at previous high levels [1] 3. Summary by Related Information Government Shutdown - President Trump signed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the longest government shutdown in US history. The bill provides continuous funding for the federal government until January 30, 2026. Multiple federal departments have notified employees to return to work on the 13th, but it's uncertain when furloughed employees will receive back pay and if normal payroll can resume quickly [1][2] Fed Policy - Atlanta Fed President Bostic will retire at the end of his term on February 28 next year, and the market expects the new appointee may open up more room for future rate cuts. Four voting regional Fed presidents are not enthusiastic about another rate cut in December. Boston Fed President Collins believes the Fed will likely keep rates at the current level for some time. White House official Hassett hopes the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points but expects a 25 - basis - point cut. The US Supreme Court will hold an oral argument on Trump's request to fire Fed Governor Cook on January 21 next year [1][2]

Report Summary Core View - The long - term upward trend of gold and silver prices is due to the continuous and historical loss of the US dollar's intrinsic value, which is manifested in the decline of its internal and external purchasing power and the weakening of its global mandatory power [3][6][7] Key Points Market Performance - As of November 12, 2025, the spot and futures prices of silver reached new historical highs, with the domestic price standing at 12,500 yuan per kilogram and Comex silver approaching $54 per ounce. Silver outperformed gold, and there are new underlying logics emerging [2] Traditional Gold Analysis Framework Breakdown - Before 2024, gold price discussions mainly revolved around the US dollar and US Treasury yields. However, since 2022, the Fed's interest - rate hikes and rising US inflation have led to a situation where gold prices and US Treasury yields have risen simultaneously, breaking the traditional inverse relationship [2][3] US Dollar's Intrinsic Value Analysis - **Purchasing Power**: The US dollar's internal and external purchasing power has been in an irreversible decline. Domestically, inflation has eroded its internal purchasing power, and externally, the process of de - globalization since 2016 has weakened its external purchasing power, including factors such as resource protectionism in South America and the decline of US influence on energy prices [4][6] - **Compulsory Power**: The US dollar's global compulsory power has been declining since 2018, which is an important background for the loss of its intrinsic value [7] US Dollar Index and Gold - Silver Price Relationship - The US dollar index is a relative indicator and does not reflect the loss of the US dollar's intrinsic value. Gold and silver can mark the loss of the US dollar's intrinsic value, and the long - term upward trend of gold and silver prices has an inherent logical sustainability [6][7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias, with a driving force for a downward trend but limited operability on the market) [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias, with a driving force for a downward trend but limited operability on the market) [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias, with a driving force for a downward trend but limited operability on the market) [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias, with a driving force for a downward trend but limited operability on the market) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short-term long/short trend and poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait-and-see approach) [1] Core Views - The market is pessimistic about crude oil prices due to factors such as OPEC's adjustment of the balance sheet and increased US API crude oil inventories, and there is still room for prices to decline within the year [2] - Fuel oil prices follow the cost side down, while the low-sulfur market's fundamentals have improved, and the previously arranged strategy of widening the high-low sulfur spread has gradually materialized [2] - The decline of asphalt has slowed down, but the fundamentals are still bearish in the medium and long term [3] - The international LPG market is strong, with tight supply and improved demand, so LPG is expected to fluctuate upward [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices dropped significantly, with the SC12 contract falling 3.66%. OPEC's November report adjusted the balance sheet from shortage to balance, and last week's US API crude oil inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels [2] - Since November, the crude oil monthly spread and spot premium/discount have weakened again, and there is still room for prices to decline within the year. Continuously monitor opportunities to short on price rebounds [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices followed the cost side down due to the pessimistic sentiment from OPEC's balance sheet adjustment. The main support for high-sulfur fuel oil comes from supply risks caused by Russia's refinery capacity constraints, but increased Middle Eastern high-sulfur resources form a hedge [2] - The demand side is weak, with the end of the Middle Eastern power generation peak season, the easing of the Israel-Palestine conflict, and expected early issuance of 2026 crude oil quotas [2] - The low-sulfur market benefits from supply pressure relief and support from the transfer production logic. The fundamentals have improved in the fourth quarter, and the previously arranged strategy of widening the high-low sulfur spread has gradually materialized, and it can be considered to take profits in a timely manner [2] Asphalt - The decline of asphalt has slowed down under the background of a sharp drop in crude oil prices, and the 2601 contract has certain support at 3000 yuan/ton [3] - The poor shipment volume has falsified the expectation of rush demand in the "14th Five-Year Plan" closing year and released a negative signal that demand is lower than the same period last year [3] - Commercial inventory destocking has slowed down, and the year-on-year increase in social inventory has expanded. Fundamentals are still bearish in the medium and long term [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The international LPG market is strong, with tight supply of imported resources. Improved profitability of butane dehydrogenation units has boosted downstream chemical plant operating rates, and cold weather has increased combustion demand [4] - Refinery and port storage rates have decreased, and the supply-demand relationship has tightened marginally, so LPG is expected to fluctuate upward [4]