1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, in Q2 2025, China's GDP growth rate continued to hold steady, showing positive economic data. Sino-US tariff tensions significantly eased, and the effect of front-loading exports was remarkable. The central bank cut interest rates and reserve requirements, and rolled out a package of financial policies to stabilize the economy and expectations. Large - scale investment projects in China commenced, and sentiment in the capital market improved. With the money market interest rate remaining low, but risk appetite rising, government bonds are expected to decline [3][72]. - In the stock market, hotspots rotated. As funds spilled over from the banking sector to other heavy - weighted sectors, the strength of stock indices became differentiated. IH shifted to wide - range fluctuations, while IF, IC, and IM may continue to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a rapid correction in the hyped sectors [1][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Part 3.1.1 Stock Index Trend Analysis - From late September 2024 to the National Day, the A - share market rose continuously. After the National Day, it opened high and then fell. In November 2024, the market rebounded slightly, and in mid - December, it declined. Around the New Year's Day in 2025, the stock market had three consecutive negative days, and trading volume shrank to 1 trillion. After the Spring Festival, the market rebounded, and trading volume increased to 2 trillion. In March 2025, the market reached a new high of 5755.58 and then quickly fell. On April 7, there was a sharp single - day decline, with the Guozheng A - share Index dropping by 9.29%. After reaching the lowest point of 4820.80 on April 9, the market rebounded. In May, the market rebounded to 5500 and then fluctuated with shrinking volume. In June, stock market fluctuations weakened, and in late June, the stock index rose continuously driven by the banking stocks. In July, it broke through the high point after the sharp rise on September 24, 2024, and trading volume increased to around 2 trillion [4]. - The four major stock indices showed differentiation. In 2025, the Shanghai 50 Index fell in January, rebounded in February, dropped sharply in April, and then rebounded. In July, it reached a new high of 2824.86 but was lower than the high point on September 24, 2024. The CSI 300 Index also reached a new high in July. The CSI 500 Index filled the gap in July after failing to do so in May. The CSI 1000 Index rose rapidly in July and exceeded all high points since September 24, 2024 [5]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Fluctuations and Premium/Discount Situations - In January 2025, stock index fluctuations further decreased, and in February, there was a significant rebound. In March, there was a slight decline, and in April, there were large - scale fluctuations. During the rapid rebound of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300, the stock index futures of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 were at a large discount. Fluctuations decreased in May and June, and in July, there was a further rebound. The long - term contracts of IC and IM gradually returned to normal. The premium/discount of the Shanghai 50 Index dropped to within ±5 points, while the far - month contracts of IC had a discount of over 300 points [15]. 3.1.3 Industry Strength and Weakness Transformation - The CSI 300 Index declined in January 2025, rebounded significantly in February, slightly declined in March, had a single - day sharp decline in April, and then quickly rebounded. It fluctuated at a high level in May and June and rose rapidly in July. In terms of reversal intensity, most sectors showed positive trends, with materials having a reversal intensity of up to 13, and pharmaceuticals and industry exceeding 8. Only the public utilities sector declined, with a decline of only 2% [16][19]. 3.1.4 Industry ALPHA Risk - Return - The tracking of ALPHA risk - return statistics shows that the consistency of the CSI 300 sector's trend has increased. The telecommunications and materials sectors have full - cycle ALPHA. The full - cycle ALPHA values are (0.467%, 0.284%, 0.114%; 0.107%, 0.088%, 0.058%). Most sectors' full - cycle ALPHA values are inconsistent, and the ALPHA values of the industrial, optional, and consumer sectors are negative [23]. 3.2 Government Bond Futures Analysis 3.2.1 Economic Steady Recovery - From 2023 to 2025, GDP growth showed fluctuations but generally maintained a certain level. CPI and PPI data indicated that the economy was in a deflationary state, with industrial PPI remaining negative and the year - on - year decline expanding. Industrial added value increased year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth was relatively stable. The manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI fluctuated, and the non - manufacturing PMI was more affected by policy changes. Consumption growth was unstable [28][35]. 3.2.2 Slightly Rising Monetary投放 Growth Rate - In 2024 and 2025, the amount of new RMB loans fluctuated greatly. The growth rate of M1 first declined and then increased, indicating that the recovery speed of social hot money accelerated. The growth rate of M2 showed a downward trend. The central bank continuously implemented interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts, and the LPR decreased. The yield to maturity of government bonds fluctuated, and the overall trend was downward [43][49]. 3.2.3 Monetary Policy - From 2024 to 2025, the central bank carried out a series of monetary policy operations, including borrowing government bonds, conducting temporary open - market operations, adjusting the LPR, and implementing a package of financial policies in May 2025, which included reducing the reserve requirement ratio, lowering policy interest rates, and increasing the quota of re - loans [50][57].

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai nickel main contract 2509 closed at 124,360 yuan/ton on July 24, 2025, and the nickel price showed an overall fluctuating upward trend this month. The market is currently in the stage of trading expectations, and it is expected that subsequent "anti - involution" supporting policies will continue to increase. If so, the market may continue to rise. It is predicted that the Shanghai nickel and stainless steel will mainly show a fluctuating upward trend in the future [3][42]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In July 2025, nickel showed an overall fluctuating upward trend. The nickel futures price was gradually repairing the gap caused by the tariff storm in early April. Due to weak demand, the overall market fluctuated with a slightly lower center. This month, it rose due to the impact of the "anti - involution" policy [9]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Supply - side Analysis - **LME and SHFE inventory**: Since the second half of 2023, both LME and SHFE nickel inventories have shown a stable recovery trend. As of late July 2025, SHFE inventory was 25,277 tons, and LME inventory was 204,456 tons. As of July 18, 2025, the nickel port inventory was 6.2896 million tons [12][15]. - **Chinese nickel ore port inventory and imported Philippine nickel ore quantity**: The import of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines shows seasonal fluctuations [16]. - **Electrolytic nickel price**: The prices of domestic and imported electrolytic nickel have been in a weak and fluctuating trend since the beginning of this year, and closed at around 121,300 yuan/ton in mid - July [20]. - **Nickel sulfate price**: As of July 24, 2025, the nickel sulfate price dropped to 27,830 yuan/ton [22]. - **Nickel iron import volume and price**: On July 24, 2025, the Fubao price of nickel iron (8% - 12%) was 930 yuan/nickel [28]. 2.2 Demand - side Analysis - **Stainless steel price and position**: The stainless steel futures price is currently fluctuating at a low level, and the expected fluctuation range is 12,600 - 13,300 yuan/ton [31]. - **Stainless steel inventory**: According to data released by WIND, on July 18, 2025, the inventories of 300 - series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan were 477,100 tons and 179,200 tons respectively [33]. - **Power and energy - storage battery production**: The production of power and energy - storage batteries shows certain trends, but specific data trends are not elaborated in detail in the text [37]. - **New - energy vehicle production**: The production of new - energy vehicles shows certain trends, but specific data trends are not elaborated in detail in the text [40]. 3. Future Outlook - The Shanghai nickel market rebounded in mid - and early April, then declined due to weak fundamentals, and continued to fluctuate this month. Recently, due to the hot trading sentiment of industrial products, the Shanghai nickel price has risen. At the industrial level, the spot trading of refined nickel is average, and the changes in the spot premiums and discounts of each refined nickel are small. The supply shortage of nickel ore has been alleviated, and the current supply is relatively loose. The nickel - iron price remains weak, and many factories are in the red. The nickel sulfate price maintains a weak downward trend, and the downstream demand has not improved significantly. The demand for stainless steel is weak, the inventory reduction progress is slow, and the inventory pressure still exists. Whether it will improve in the medium and long term remains to be verified by further data [42].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - As of July 23, 2025, the national cold storage apple inventory was about 648,100 tons, lower than the same period last year and at the lowest level in the same period in history. The new - season early - maturing apple supply is tight, and the price is 0.2 - 0.4 yuan per jin higher than last year [1]. - Currently in the traditional apple consumption off - season, the demand is average. The export volume in June 2025 decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The new - season apple bagging is completed, with a slightly lower bagging volume than last year. The production in Shaanxi increased slightly, while that in Gansu and Shandong decreased [2]. - In the future, the futures market logic will shift from the old - season apple demand to the new - season apple production and acquisition. The apple futures are likely to remain strong, but the weak downstream demand in the short - term may limit the upside space. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In July 2025, the apple futures market fluctuated upward, showing a strong trend. The low inventory and high early - maturing apple prices supported the market [7]. 2. Apple Fundamental Analysis - **Cold storage inventory**: As of July 23, 2025, the national cold storage apple inventory was about 648,100 tons, lower than last year. Shandong had about 395,600 tons, Shaanxi about 173,400 tons, and non - main producing areas about 79,100 tons. Some storage merchants were eager to sell to lock in profits [1]. - **Consumption off - season and inventory removal**: As of July 24, 2025, the national cold storage inventory ratio was about 4.91%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.65 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.12 percentage points. The inventory removal rate was 92.28%. Shandong's cold storage shipping speed slowed down, while Shaanxi's was relatively stable. The overall demand in the first half of the year may be lower than last year, and there may be a possibility of price cuts to remove inventory [2][18]. - **Apple imports from January to June**: In June 2025, the fresh apple import volume was 18,700 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.32% and a year - on - year increase of 6.37%. The cumulative import volume from January to June was 69,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 36.63%. It is expected that the import volume will remain at a relatively high level [20][21]. - **Apple exports in the second quarter**: In June 2025, the fresh apple export volume was about 37,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55%. The export volume in the second quarter is expected to decline, and it is likely to remain at a low level [24]. - **Impact of seasonal fruits on downstream demand**: In July 2025, fruit prices continued to decline. Seasonal fruits such as bananas, watermelons, etc., affected the apple market. It is expected that the demand will gradually recover after the new - season apples are launched [29]. - **Stable origin prices**: As of July 24, 2025, the mainstream weighted average price of bagged Fuji 80 and above first - and second - grade goods in Shandong was 3.96 yuan per jin, slightly lower than last week but higher than the same period last year. The storage profit in Qixia was 0.35 yuan per jin, and the profit margin may be compressed in the future [33]. - **Seasonal analysis of apple consumption**: Based on five - year historical prices, the months with a high probability of price increases are September, November, and December, while the months with a high probability of price decreases are April, August, and October [37][38]. - **Slightly reduced bagging volume of new - season apples**: In 2025, the new - season apple bagging volume was slightly lower than last year. Shaanxi increased production slightly, while Shandong and Gansu decreased. The overall bagging volume decreased by 2.03% compared to the previous season. The acquisition price of new - season late - maturing Red Fuji may be higher than last year [41]. 3. Future Outlook - The supply side includes the old - season apple inventory and early - maturing apples. The demand is in the off - season. The futures market logic will shift, and the apple futures are likely to remain strong, but the short - term upside space may be limited. It is recommended to buy on dips [42][44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market sentiment has improved, with the pulp futures rebounding from a low level in July 2025. However, the pulp market supply is relatively loose, with high port inventories and a slow de - stocking pace. The subsequent rebound height depends on demand stabilization and macro - economic conditions. It is recommended to take a light - position trial long position [2][5][24] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In July 2025, pulp futures rebounded from a low level. The pulp market followed the upward trend of the commodity sector, but due to high port inventories, slow de - stocking, low downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and cost support, the market was in a dynamic game [5] 3.2 Pulp Fundamental Analysis - **Import Volume Increase with Slowing Speed**: Global pulp production is stable at around 180 million tons. China has a high degree of dependence on pulp imports. In June 2025, China imported 3.031 million tons of pulp, with an import value of $1.9079 billion and an average unit price of $629.46 per ton. From January to June, the cumulative import volume and value increased by 4.2% and 2.3% respectively compared to the same period last year. The import volume maintained an increasing trend, but the growth rate slowed down [9][10] - **Inventory Pressure in Major Domestic Ports**: As of July 23, 2025, the total weekly inventory of pulp in major domestic ports was 2.1266 million tons, a 3.49% decrease from the previous week, still at a high level in the same period of previous years. In May 2025, European port inventories increased, and in June, European chemical pulp consumption decreased while inventories increased. Coniferous pulp has less inventory pressure, while broad - leaf pulp has more supply and inventory pressure [12][13] - **Diverse Downstream Operating Conditions**: Global pulp apparent consumption is stable at around 180 million tons. Waste pulp is the main consumption method in China, accounting for 63% of total pulp consumption. As of July 24, the operating rates of different types of paper mills varied, with most paper mills operating stably and a few reducing production [15][18] - **Rising Prices of Coniferous and Broad - Leaf Pulp in the Domestic Market**: As of July 24, the weekly average price of imported coniferous pulp was 5,866 yuan per ton, a 0.53% increase from the previous week, and the weekly average price of imported broad - leaf pulp was 4,111 yuan per ton, a 0.76% increase from the previous week. Although the price of imported broad - leaf pulp increased, downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low, and high - price transactions did not increase significantly [20] 3.3 Outlook for the Future - On the supply side, in June 2025, China's pulp import volume and value increased compared to the same period last year. On the demand side, port inventories were high, and the de - stocking pace was slow. The pulp market supply was relatively loose, and high - price transactions were limited. The subsequent rebound height depends on demand stabilization and macro - economic conditions, and it is recommended to take a light - position trial long position [23][24]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the domestic market, due to the commodity price increase caused by anti - involution, the downside space for cotton prices is limited. Futures long - positions are shifting, and the confrontation between long and short positions in the main contract has eased. However, inland losses are severe, the consumption rate of commercial inventory has slowed down, and finished - product inventory is accumulating. In August, the cotton market is expected to show weak and volatile trends. - In the international market, the global cotton market remains under pressure as the USDA July report increased global supply. The excellent - good rate of U.S. cotton in the main producing areas is rising, and U.S. cotton exports are significantly affected. U.S. cotton is expected to fluctuate between 65 - 70 cents per pound. - The operation suggestion is to focus on short - term trading of Zhengzhou cotton [1][26][27]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In July, Zhengzhou cotton first broke through and then fluctuated at a high level. Supported by tight supply and delayed issuance of import quotas, bulls actively attacked, pushing the price above 14,000 yuan/ton, reaching a maximum of 14,375 yuan/ton. Subsequently, bulls reduced positions, the basis was adjusted downwards, and the market entered a high - level oscillation. - In July, the international cotton market fluctuated widely. Uncertainty about trade agreements, high excellent - good rates of U.S. cotton, and weak exports suppressed cotton prices, but the low - level dollar and interest - rate cut expectations limited the downside space [4]. 2. Domestic Market Analysis 2.1 Commercial Inventory Consumption Slowdown - As of July 15, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons (10.16%) from the end of June. The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 242,000 tons, the inland inventory decreased by 36,400 tons, and the bonded inventory of imported cotton decreased by 9,000 tons. The decline in inventory continued to slow down, mainly due to significant losses of inland textile enterprises, reduced operating rates, and a significant contraction in cotton consumption [6]. 2.2 Decline in Downstream Operating Rates and Accumulation of Finished - Product Inventory - As of July 18, the operating rate of textile enterprises dropped from 51.2% at the end of June to 48.3%, and that of weaving enterprises dropped from 45.3% to 44.3%, reaching the lowest level in five years. The number of inland enterprises shutting down or suspending production increased. - By July 18, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises increased by 3.5 days compared to the end of June, and the finished - product inventory of weaving enterprises increased by 0.8 days. After the increase in raw material prices, the acceptance of price increases for yarn and grey cloth by downstream sectors was low, leading to continuous accumulation of finished - product inventory [9][11]. 2.3 Both Spot and Futures Show Signs of Retreat - On July 16, Zhengzhou cotton started to rise rapidly, accompanied by an increase in positions and trading volume. It reached a phased high of 14,375 yuan/ton on July 18. During the futures price increase, the basis in eastern Xinjiang and inland warehouses did not rise but decreased, indicating a strong willingness of the spot market to sell. - After July 18, the futures market entered a high - level oscillation, the positions of the 2509 contract continued to decline, and long - position holders in the main contract showed a willingness to leave [14]. 3. International Market Analysis 3.1 Increase in Global Supply and Ending Inventory - The USDA July cotton supply - demand report showed increases in both supply and demand. Global production increased by 1.43 million bales, mainly due to increases in China, the U.S., and Mexico. Global consumption increased by 365,000 bales. Global exports decreased by 100,000 bales. The beginning inventory for the 2025/26 season decreased by 510,000 bales, and the ending inventory increased by 520,000 bales [18]. 3.2 Higher - than - Expected Planting Area and Rising Excellent - Good Rate - The USDA reported that the actual planted area of U.S. cotton in the new season was 10.12 million acres, a 10% decrease compared to 2024. The growth in the actual planted area compared to the March assessment was mainly due to an increase in the planted area of upland cotton in Texas. - As of July 20, the squaring rate of U.S. cotton was 71%, the boll - setting rate was 33%, and the excellent - good rate was 57%. The growth progress was behind the same period last year, but the excellent - good rate continued to rise [21]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Factors: Trade Negotiations and Interest - Rate Cut Expectations - The change in U.S. tariff policies is still unclear, which may affect the import strategies of major textile and clothing exporting countries for U.S. cotton. The probability of an interest - rate cut in the U.S. in July was extremely low, but the expectation of a future interest - rate cut increased, and the trend of the dollar index will also affect cotton prices [25]. 4. Conclusion and Operation Suggestions - The domestic cotton market is expected to show weak and volatile trends in August, and attention should be paid to changes in positions on the futures market. - The international cotton market remains under pressure, and U.S. cotton is expected to fluctuate between 65 - 70 cents per pound. - The operation suggestion is to focus on short - term trading of Zhengzhou cotton [26][27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar market: Brazil's total sugar production may be adjusted downward due to lower yields and a historically high sugar - to - cane ratio. Asian producers, especially India, have optimistic production estimates. With potential increased sucrose use by Coca - Cola and PepsiCo and procurement demand from countries like Pakistan, the international sugar price is expected to fluctuate widely between 16 - 18 cents per pound [2][20]. - Domestic sugar market: The sales of domestic sugar are progressing ahead of schedule, imports have increased significantly, and processed sugar has been put on the market in large quantities with stable prices. The cost of some previously priced raw sugar is similar to that of domestic sugar, so the market pressure is limited. The domestic market has achieved a relay supply pattern between domestic and processed sugar. The upside of sugar prices later depends on consumption, with an expected operating range of 5700 - 6000 yuan per ton [2][20][22]. - Operation suggestion: Conduct band trading on Zhengzhou sugar futures [3][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In July, Zhengzhou sugar futures trended higher with high basis and a shift from net short to net long positions in the main contracts, supported by fast sales and capital inflows. International sugar prices oscillated at low levels, rebounding after falling below 16 cents per pound but then being pressured by India's abundant supply expectations and dropping again [4]. 3.2 International Market Analysis - **Brazil**: In the second half of June, the sugar - to - cane ratio in South Brazil reached a record high of 53.15%, with a cumulative ratio of 51.02%, up 2.3 percentage points year - on - year. However, due to weather, the cane crushing volume was low. Considering the relatively low cane yield and sugar content and limited room for further increase in the sugar - to - cane ratio, Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production may be reduced [6]. - **India**: Ample rainfall has led to high expectations for a large sugar harvest in the 2025/26 season. The USDA predicts India's sugar production will reach 35 million tons. As of mid - July 2025, India's sugar exports were 65 - 70 million tons, and the ISMA expects 80 million tons by the end of August, with 20 million tons of the quota unexported. The sugar industry requests an extension of the export license to December 31. If the harvest is good, India could export 100 - 150 million tons in the new year [9]. 3.3 Domestic Market Analysis - **Sales progress**: In June, Guangxi sold 495.3 thousand tons of sugar, an increase of 77.3 thousand tons year - on - year, with an industrial inventory of 1.3244 million tons, a decrease of 330.8 thousand tons. Yunnan sold 195.3 thousand tons, a decrease of 66 thousand tons, with an industrial inventory of 667.6 thousand tons, an increase of 68.5 thousand tons. Some sugar mills in Guangxi have cleared their inventories, and the overall sales are ahead. Yunnan's inventory reduction is slower but is expected to improve in July [11][12]. - **Imports**: In June 2025, China imported 420 thousand tons of sugar, an increase of 390 thousand tons year - on - year, the highest in the past decade. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import was 1.04 million tons, a decrease of 260 thousand tons year - on - year. In the 2024/25 season, the cumulative import was 2.51 million tons, a decrease of 600 thousand tons. Brazil accounted for 76% of raw sugar imports in the first half of 2025, and about one million tons of imported sugar are expected later. In June, the total import of syrups and sugar - containing premixes under certain tax codes was 115.7 thousand tons, a decrease of 103.2 thousand tons year - on - year. The import of 1702 - item syrups is shrinking, but Thai - flavored syrups and premixes show signs of growth [15][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the number of piglet births, the pattern of increasing theoretical slaughter volume in the later period remains unchanged. Considering the impact of pig diseases around February, the slaughter growth rate in August may be relatively low, while the growth rates in October and November are relatively high. With the increase in graduation banquets in August and pre - stocking for the start of school in early September, demand will increase significantly in August. After September, terminal consumption will have a seasonal rebound. Supported by the low slaughter growth rate and increased consumption in August, the spot price is expected to rise again and reach the annual high, followed by an expected shock adjustment, but the adjustment space is limited due to the policy - guided reduction of the average slaughter weight [1][21] - LH2509 and LH2511 have a high premium over the spot, which has fully priced in the later spot price increase, so shorting on rallies can be considered [1][21] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In July, the spot market of live pigs declined. The spot price in the benchmark Henan region dropped from the high of 15.34 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month to around 14.3 yuan/kg, a decline of nearly 1 yuan. Futures performed stronger than the spot, causing the basis to weaken rapidly. The futures price has turned to a premium of nearly 1000 yuan/ton compared to the spot in Sichuan Province. The decline in the live pig market was mainly due to the reduction of supply by large - scale farms at the beginning of the month, followed by the resumption of their supply, increased willingness of small - scale farmers to sell pigs due to hot weather, and weak consumption. The strong performance of futures comes from seasonal expectations and policy expectations [3] 3.2 Live Pig Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Continued Increase in Theoretical Slaughter Volume Indicated by Data of Sows and Piglets - The national inventory of reproductive sows reached a low of 39.86 million in May 2024, then rebounded to a high of 40.8 million in November 2024, with an increase of 2.4% from the low to the high. As of June 2025, it was 40.42 million, equivalent to 103.6% of the normal inventory. From the data of reproductive sows, the supply potential of commercial pigs will gradually increase from February to September 2025. The number of piglet births in sample enterprises has generally been increasing since November 2024, indicating that the domestic live pig supply is still guaranteed during the traditional seasonal rise window period from July to September 2025 [4] 3.2.2 Feed Sales Data Confirm the Increase in Live Pig Inventory - From October 2024 to January 2025, the sales volume of piglet feed and nursery feed decreased seasonally, but the decline was significantly lower than in previous years, indicating that piglets were less damaged in winter. The sales volume of finishing pig feed increased significantly month - on - month in March 2025, earlier than in previous years. The year - on - year growth rates of finishing pig feed sales volume from May to June were 17% and 9% respectively, indicating an obvious recovery in the inventory of medium - and large - sized pigs and relatively sufficient slaughter volume in the next 2 - 3 months [8] 3.2.3 Accelerated Slaughter of Heavy - Weight Pigs Later, but Unlikely to Cause Concentrated Selling Pressure - The average weight of slaughtered pigs in 16 key provinces reached the peak in May and then declined, with an accelerated decline in June and July, and is currently at the lowest level in the past 5 years. The decline is due to the increase in temperature and government policies. Seasonally, the price difference between fat and standard pigs will gradually increase after August, and the demand for fat pigs will increase seasonally. With the current low average weight, there is a large space for the industry to increase the average weight in the later period [10] 3.2.4 Short - Term Demand Boosted by Festivals, but No Highlights in the Medium Term - The national pig slaughter volume has increased significantly compared with the previous year, and the slaughter gross profit in 2025 has been significantly higher than that in the previous year, indicating better demand this year. The reasons may be the improvement of overall terminal consumption and the reduction of the impact of frozen products. In August, demand will increase significantly due to graduation banquets and pre - stocking for the start of school. After September, terminal consumption will have a seasonal rebound, but the impact on price depends on the matching degree of future supply [13] 3.2.5 Feed Cost Reduction Benefits the Industry, Maintaining Profitability - The domestic live pig industry has maintained profitability for nearly 14 months since May 2024. Although the pig price was low in the first half of 2025, the industry still made a profit due to the reduction of feed costs. The price of piglets has been rising since January, and the cost of fattening pigs from purchased piglets will increase significantly. The theoretical cost of fattening pigs from self - bred piglets is concentrated in the range of 13 - 13.5 yuan/kg, while the cost of fattening pigs from purchased piglets will rise to the range of 15 - 16 yuan/kg. It is expected that the feed cost is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and the decline space of live pig breeding cost is limited [19] 3.3 Conclusion and Market Outlook - The pattern of increasing theoretical slaughter volume in the later period remains unchanged. Considering the impact of pig diseases around February, the slaughter growth rate in August may be relatively low, while the growth rates in October and November are relatively high. The large - scale groups are accelerating the reduction of the average slaughter weight, which may reduce the slaughter pressure in August, but small - scale farmers have a large number of heavy - weight pigs in stock. Supported by the low slaughter growth rate and increased consumption in August, the spot price is expected to rise again and reach the annual high, followed by an expected shock adjustment, but the adjustment space is limited. LH2509 and LH2511 have a high premium over the spot, so shorting on rallies can be considered [1][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - If the estimated increase in corn production in the US, Ukraine, Brazil, and Argentina is realized, the global corn market will remain relatively loose, and international corn prices will continue to trade at low levels [2][34]. - In China, the area of new - season corn is slightly increasing, and the weather has been generally favorable so far, but there are concerns about drought in some regions. The supply of old - season corn is tight, but there are supplements from wheat and imported corn auctions. The price of domestic corn is unlikely to experience significant fluctuations in the short term, but its medium - term trend will face pressure due to the approaching new - season corn harvest and lower production costs [2][34]. - In terms of operation, the old - season contracts should be treated with a range - bound approach, while a bearish view is recommended for the new - season contracts [2][34]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Since July, domestic corn futures and spot prices have declined. The start of the auction of imported corn by Sinograin loosened the expectation of a tight supply pattern, leading to a wave of selling by spot grain holders. Later in the month, the market sentiment stabilized, and the spot price showed a certain rebound. The basis first strengthened and then weakened, and the spread between near - and far - month contracts first declined and then rebounded [4]. 2. International Corn Market Analysis 2.1 Strong Expectation of New - Season Corn Yield Increase in the US - The USDA's July supply - demand report estimated that the US corn planting area in 2025/26 will be 95.2 million acres, with a yield per acre of 181 bushels and a total output of 15.705 billion bushels. The year - end carry - over inventory is 1.66 billion bushels, higher than the previous year but lower than last month's estimate. The expansion of the planting area provides a large margin of safety for supply, and the current trend of yield per acre is in a good state, with favorable weather outlook, resulting in significant pressure for a bumper harvest [6]. 2.2 Steady - to - Increasing Future Yields in Brazil and Argentina - According to the USDA's July estimate, Brazil's corn output in 2024/25 was 132 million tons, with exports of 43 million tons and domestic consumption of 91 million tons. For 2025/26, the output is predicted to be 131 million tons, slightly lower than the previous year. Argentina's output in 2024/25 was 50 million tons, and in 2025/26, it is predicted to be 53 million tons. Overall, the total output of Brazil and Argentina in South America increased significantly in 2024/25, and the export supply capacity has recovered. The predicted output for 2025/26 is expected to increase slightly, but this prediction is still early and needs continuous tracking [9]. 2.3 Expected Recovery and Increase in New - Season Corn Yield in Ukraine - The USDA estimates that Ukraine's corn output in 2025/26 will be 30.5 million tons, an increase of 3.7 million tons (13.8%) compared to the previous year, mainly due to a slight increase in area and recovery of yield per acre. The final year - end carry - over inventory is 60,000 tons, recovering from the previous year. Since June, precipitation in major producing areas has been low, and the NDVI index has been slightly lower, so future weather changes need to be monitored [11]. 3. Domestic Corn Market Analysis 3.1 Slight Increase in New - Season Planting Area and Steady - to - Increasing Production - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs estimates that China's corn planting area in 2025/26 will be 44,873 thousand hectares (673 million mu), an increase of 132 thousand hectares (1.98 million mu) or 0.3% compared to the previous year. The yield per hectare is expected to be 6,600 kg (440 kg per mu), and the total output will be 296.16 million tons, an increase of 0.4%. Overall, domestic corn production is expected to increase slightly. Since sowing, the climate suitability for corn has been generally good, but since July, precipitation has been low in the core producing areas in the Northeast and the Huang - Huai region, and drought pressure has emerged in some areas, so the impact of weather on yield per acre needs to be monitored [16]. 3.2 Decrease in Direct Corn Imports and Sinograin's Imported Corn Auction as an Important Supplement - China's corn imports have remained at a low level for several consecutive months. In the 2024/25 market year, the cumulative corn imports were 1.68 million tons, a significant decrease compared to 21.63 million tons in the same period of the previous year. It is expected that imports will increase in the second half of 2025, but the arrival may be after September. Since July 1st, Sinograin has started the auction of reserve imported corn, with a total turnover of less than 1 million tons, and the future supply is uncertain [18][20]. 3.3 Recovery and Expansion of the Breeding Scale and Increase in Feed Output - In the first half of 2025, the total output of industrial feed in China was 158.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. The output of compound feed and additive premixed feed increased, while that of concentrated feed decreased. The recovery of the pig and poultry breeding scales is expected to support the consumption of pig and poultry feed [23]. 3.4 Weak Downstream Consumption and Sluggish Deep - Processing Demand - Due to weak macro - economic growth and low consumer confidence, the consumption of downstream products of deep - processing enterprises has been sluggish, resulting in a significant reduction in the use of corn in the deep - processing sector. Since 2024/25, the corn processing volume of sample deep - processing enterprises has decreased by about 4% compared to the previous year. In the corn starch production, which accounts for the largest proportion of corn consumption in the deep - processing sector, the consumption of corn starch has decreased significantly, leading to high inventory, poor processing profit, and low operating rate. It is expected that the deep - processing of corn starch will not improve significantly [24][27]. 3.5 Wheat Still Has an Advantage over Corn, and Attention Should Be Paid to the Auction of Feed Rice - Since March, wheat has shown an advantage in substituting for corn, and feed enterprises in North and Central China have adjusted their formulas. The import of substitute grains such as sorghum and barley has decreased significantly, and it is unlikely to increase suddenly in the future. However, the auction of aged rice is an uncertain factor [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current urea market is in a stage of continuous abundant supply and relatively weak demand. With the support of technological transformation and national supply - guarantee policies, the domestic urea production devices are operating at a high load, with the daily output stabilizing at around 190,000 tons, a five - year peak. Newly added production capacity will keep the supply abundant in the second half of the year. On the demand side, the extended agricultural off - season and slow industrial recovery have led to a dull market. The substantial improvement of demand depends on the start of autumn compound fertilizer production and winter storage. Policy and coal price factors strengthen the support for urea prices. In the third quarter, the price is likely to fluctuate at the bottom, and in the fourth quarter, it may rebound due to demand support, but the rebound strength is affected by multiple factors. It is recommended to flexibly grasp trading opportunities based on factors such as autumn fertilizer production, winter storage policies, legal inspection systems, and coal price fluctuations [1][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Market Review - Since the listing of urea futures in 2019, the main contract price has fluctuated between 1,500 yuan/ton and 3,400 yuan/ton. From August to December 2019 and throughout 2020, the price was under pressure due to factors such as weakened cost support, production capacity expansion, and tightened export policies. After September 2024, the price dropped to a low - level range again. As of July 21, 2025, the UR2509 contract closed at 1,812 yuan/ton, still in a low - level oscillation pattern. The current supply - demand situation features high supply, weak domestic demand, marginal export support, and a rebound in coal prices, causing the price to oscillate in the low - level range [3]. Cost - Profit Analysis - The cost of different production processes: the cost of natural - gas - based urea production is 1,965 yuan/ton, the fixed - bed process cost is 1,917 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed process cost is 1,478 yuan/ton. Due to intensified industry competition, the profit margin of urea production has narrowed. The current gross profit of fixed - bed urea production is - 117 yuan/ton, that of entrained - flow bed is 362 yuan/ton, and that of natural - gas - based production is - 185 yuan/ton. When the urea price reaches around 1,600 yuan/ton, it will receive cost support [7]. Industrial Structure Analysis Supply Overview - China's urea production capacity has been expanding in recent years, and the total output has been increasing. It is expected that the total urea production capacity will exceed 80 million tons in 2025, with new production capacity from Hubei Sanning Chemical, Inner Mongolia Wulan Group, and Xinjiang Zhongneng Wanyuan. In the first half of 2025, China's urea output reached 36.005 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.18%. The daily output has steadily recovered to a high level, with an average daily output of 200,000 tons, keeping the supply pattern loose [12][18]. Demand Overview - Domestic urea demand is divided into agricultural and industrial demand, with the overall downstream demand being relatively stable. Agricultural demand accounts for about 70%, mainly for major crops such as corn, rice, and wheat. Industrial demand accounts for about 30%, mainly used in areas such as urea - formaldehyde resin, melamine, thermal power denitrification, and vehicle urea. The weekly capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers and the average operating load rate of the melamine industry have been relatively stable in recent years, indicating stable urea demand [20][21]. Inventory Analysis - With the continuous commissioning of new urea production facilities, the inventory of urea enterprises is at a historically high level, with the latest inventory at 741,000 tons. Under the "orderly export" policy in 2025, the port inventory is 443,000 tons and is slowly rising [24]. Import - Export Analysis - China is the world's largest urea producer, accounting for about 30% of the world's total production capacity. The export volume in 2023 was 4.25 million tons, 260,600 tons in 2024, and 77,200 tons from January to June 2025, a year - on - year decrease of 44.17%. India plans to stop importing urea by the end of 2025. The industry has established an export self - discipline mechanism, emphasizing the "domestic priority" principle. Head - leading enterprises are accelerating overseas production capacity layout to break through export constraints [29][34]. Market Outlook - The supply will remain abundant in the second half of the year, while the demand is in a cyclical trough. The market trading atmosphere is dull, and the substantial improvement of demand depends on autumn compound fertilizer production and winter storage. The inventory situation is divided, and the enterprise inventory pressure is temporarily controllable, while the port inventory change depends on export policies. Policy and coal price factors strengthen price support. In the third quarter, the price is likely to fluctuate at the bottom, and in the fourth quarter, it may rebound, but the rebound strength is affected by multiple factors. It is recommended to flexibly grasp trading opportunities [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market is expected to oscillate, with strong resistance at 3,200 yuan/ton and potential support around 3,000 yuan/ton. It's advised to take profits on long positions near the resistance level and be cautious about short - selling [143][144][147]. - The Shanghai Aluminum (SHFE Aluminum) is expected to oscillate in the price range of 19,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton, with the current industrial fundamentals providing support, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes [144][147]. - The aluminum alloy price is expected to oscillate under the support of cost and the suppression of weak demand [144][147]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Macro - economic data**: In Q2 2025, China's GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year (previous value: 5.4%), and in June, industrial added value grew 6.8% year - on - year (previous value: 5.8%), while retail sales grew 4.8% year - on - year (previous value: 6.4%). From January to June, fixed - asset investment grew 2.8% year - on - year (previous value: 3.7%), real estate investment decreased 11.2% year - on - year (previous value: - 10.7%), and broad infrastructure investment grew 8.9% year - on - year (previous value: 10.4%), and manufacturing investment grew 7.5% year - on - year (previous value: 8.5%). In the US, overall retail sales in June increased 0.6% month - on - month, far exceeding the expected 0.1% [8]. - **Important news**: On the evening of July 17, 2025, Guinea revoked the exploration and mining licenses of 45 mining companies, including six bauxite enterprises, but these were long - idle mining rights [8]. - **Spot market**: As of July 18, the average domestic alumina spot price was 3,185.06 yuan/ton, up 42.67 yuan/ton from July 11. The average price of aluminum (A00) in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market was 20,710 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from July 11 [11]. - **Supply side**: As of July 17, the national weekly alumina operating rate was 80.74%, up 0.82% from the previous week. In June 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production was 3.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [11]. - **Demand side**: As of July 17, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.8%, up 0.2% from the previous week, driven by a slight rebound in the operating rates of the aluminum profile and aluminum cable sectors [11]. - **Cost and profit**: As of July 17, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,838 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from July 11, and the industry average profit expanded to about 337 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum smelting cost was about 16,615 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton from July 11, and the industry average profit narrowed to about 3,954 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inventory side**: As of July 17, the aluminum ingot inventory was 492,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons from July 10, with de - stocking during the week after unexpected inventory accumulation on Monday. The aluminum rod inventory was 156,000 tons, down 4,000 tons from July 10. As of July 18, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory was 66,548 tons, an increase of 14,568 tons from July 11. From July 11 to July 17, the LME aluminum inventory increased by 26,925 tons to 427,200 tons [12]. - **Overall market trend**: This week, alumina oscillated strongly, SHFE Aluminum oscillated weakly, and aluminum alloy oscillated weakly [15]. 3.2 Alumina Fundamental Analysis - **Spot**: As of July 18, the domestic alumina spot price continued to rise, and the spot was still tight with strong price - holding sentiment in the market [28]. - **Supply**: As of July 17, the national weekly alumina operating rate was 80.74%, up 0.82% from the previous week. There were both production cuts and restarts in the alumina supply side. In June 2025, China's alumina production was 7.749 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%, and the cumulative production from January to June was 45.151 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3% [32]. - **Import and export**: As of July 17, the FOB price of Australian alumina was 366 US dollars/ton, up nearly 5 US dollars/ton from July 3. The import profit window for alumina was gradually opening [34]. - **Cost and profit**: As of July 17, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,838 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from July 11, and the industry average profit expanded to about 337 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inventory**: As of July 17, the alumina port inventory was 21,000 tons, down 5,000 tons from the previous week, at a near - 4 - year low. In June 2025, China's alumina exports were 170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%, and the cumulative exports from January to June were 1.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.7% [43]. - **Futures inventory**: The alumina futures inventory has gradually recovered from a low level but is still at a relatively low historical level [51]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Fundamental Analysis - **Cost side**: As of July 18, coal prices in major regions increased, and the single - degree electricity price in Yunnan in July dropped to about 0.38 yuan/degree. The price of pre - baked anodes in major production areas remained stable during the week [55][58]. - **Cost and profit**: As of July 17, the electrolytic aluminum smelting cost was about 16,615 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton from July 11, mainly due to the increase in alumina prices. The industry average profit narrowed to about 3,954 yuan/ton [62]. - **Supply side**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production was 3.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained at a high level [64]. - **Spot**: As of July 18, the average price of aluminum (A00) in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market was 20,710 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from July 11 [67]. - **Aluminum price trend and premium/discount**: LME Aluminum oscillated strongly during the week with a spot discount, and the SHFE Aluminum main contract oscillated strongly with a spot discount in the spot market [72][74]. - **Demand side**: As of July 17, the operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises was 58.8%, up 0.2% from the previous week. In June, the PMI composite index of the aluminum processing industry was 40.1%, below the boom - bust line, and the off - season effect of demand deepened [76]. - **Inventory**: As of July 17, the aluminum ingot inventory was 492,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons from July 10, with de - stocking during the week. The aluminum rod inventory was 156,000 tons, down 4,000 tons from July 10. In June, the industry's aluminum - to - liquid ratio was 75.82%, a month - on - month increase of 0.29% [84]. - **Futures inventory**: As of July 18, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory was 66,548 tons, an increase of 14,568 tons from July 11. From July 11 to July 17, the LME aluminum inventory increased by 26,925 tons to 427,200 tons [87]. - **Import and export**: The import profit window for aluminum ingots was closed. In June 2025, China exported 489,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, and the cumulative exports from January to June were 2.918 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0% [90][93]. - **Terminal demand**: The real estate market is slowly recovering, and the performance of new - energy vehicles is relatively bright. From July 1 - 13, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 571,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the retail sales of the new - energy passenger car market were 332,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 26% [95][98]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Analysis - **Raw materials**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight during the off - season, and the price is high. The cost of aluminum alloy has continued to rise, and the loss has expanded [102][104]. - **ADC12**: The cost and profit of ADC12 are affected by factors such as scrap aluminum, silicon, and copper costs. The spot price of ADC12 shows certain trends, and the overseas ADC12 price and import profit also have corresponding changes [109][111][114]. - **Supply**: The production of ADC12 and the import and export volume of aluminum alloy have their own characteristics. In June, the production of aluminum alloy increased month - on - month [116][117]. - **Demand**: The demand for cast aluminum alloy has obvious seasonality, and the automotive industry is the main demand end [120][123]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of aluminum alloy includes social inventory and factory inventory, and the current inventory situation has an impact on the market [132]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of aluminum alloy shows certain trends [137]. 3.5 Future Outlook - **Macro - level**: The "anti - involution" policy continues to affect industries such as photovoltaics and new - energy vehicles, and there is also a game space in the market before and after the overseas tariff policy window period. The non - ferrous metal sector led by copper and aluminum still maintains high volatility [142]. - **Alumina**: It is expected to oscillate, with strong resistance at 3,200 yuan/ton and potential support around 3,000 yuan/ton. It's advised to take profits on long positions near the resistance level and be cautious about short - selling [143]. - **Aluminum**: It is expected to oscillate in the price range of 19,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton, with the current industrial fundamentals providing support, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes [144]. - **Aluminum alloy**: It is expected to oscillate under the support of cost and the suppression of weak demand [144].