/ 国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货铁矿石月报 预期悲观 铁矿延续弱势 铁矿石 2025 年 4 月 27 日 主要结论 作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合 规渠道， 分析逻辑基于本人的职业理 解，通过合理判断 并得出结论，力求 客观、公正，结论不受任何第三方的 授意、影响，特此声明。 独立性申明： 分析师：马钰 从业资格号：F03094736 投资咨询号：Z0020872 电话：021-55007766-305161 邮箱：15627@guosen.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 以信为本 点石成金 2025 年 4 月份铁矿石走势偏弱，主力 09 合约弱势震荡下跌。4 月初，虽然 在季节性旺季，铁矿石现实供需情况延续强势，不过在粗钢压减政策预期带 动下，铁矿石回落到相对低位，同时越南等地区对中国钢材反倾销，美国特 朗普政府也传言对中国加征关税，铁矿石弱势震荡。随着特朗普宣布加征对 等关税，力度超出预期，市场情绪悲观，铁矿石快速下跌。不过铁矿石的供 需情况延续强势，供应端出现明显回落，铁水产量超预期走强，库存明显去 化，在悲观情绪释放后，铁矿石短线反弹。 4 月份铁矿石供应回落，主要是随着 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of domestic cotton is stable with a projected slight increase in planting area, and the market focus is on consumption. The export situation is severe due to tariff hikes, and domestic consumption is in the off - season. Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) is under pressure, and its performance is affected by macro - changes. If the trade situation improves, it may emerge from the weak trend. [1][27] - The global cotton market remains under pressure, with the USDA's April report increasing the global inventory. However, short - term consumption of US cotton is stimulated by Southeast Asian countries' rush to export, which supports the price of US cotton. The political uncertainty of the US president brings high market risks and uncertain impacts on the cotton market. [2][27] - The operation suggestion is to mainly conduct short - term trading in Zhengmian. [2][28] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In April, Zhengmian experienced a cliff - like decline and then maintained weak oscillations. After the US unexpectedly increased tariffs on April 7, Zhengmian dropped with a gap, and the panic spread. On April 9, the main contract of Zhengmian reached a minimum of 12,490 yuan/ton and then oscillated at a low level. [5] - The international cotton market declined and then rebounded in April. After the US imposed reciprocal tariffs, the global trade situation was tense, and US cotton reached a minimum of 62.05 cents/pound on April 4. Then, as the market digested the negative impact and the trade situation improved, the price of US cotton rebounded and basically recovered the decline. [5] 2. Domestic Market Analysis 2.1 Weak Operating Rates - Due to the tense Sino - US trade situation, the textile and weaving industries suffered a severe blow in April. As of April 18, the operating rate of textile enterprises was 54.8%, remaining unchanged since February 28. The operating rate of weaving enterprises was 52.4%, slightly down 0.1 percentage points from the previous week and at the lowest level in five years. [7] - As of April 18, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 18.7 days, up 0.3 days from the previous week and down 5.1 days year - on - year. The finished - product inventory of weaving enterprises was 31.4 days, down 0.3 days from the previous week and up 4.5 days year - on - year. The inventory accumulation of both was obvious, with the weaving enterprises' inventory at a high level compared with the same period in previous years. [10] 2.2 Escalation of Sino - US Trade Conflicts - On April 2, 2025, Trump announced a national emergency and a series of tariff policies, including a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on all trading partners effective on April 5, and "reciprocal tariffs" of 10 - 50% on trade - deficit countries. The policy of canceling the "small - value exemption" for Chinese exports under $800 will take effect on May 2. [12] - China announced multiple counter - measures on April 4, including imposing a 34% tariff on all US imports from April 10, suing the US at the WTO, and taking other relevant measures. [13] - The US continued to threaten to increase tariffs on China, and China synchronously raised tariffs on US imports. Later, the US tried to ease the international pressure, and both sides showed signs of potential negotiation. [14][15] - Compared with the 2018 trade war, the scope of this tariff measure is wider, hitting all trading partners. The US also imposed high tariffs on Southeast Asian countries, with comprehensive tax rates on some goods exceeding 60%, affecting their代工 economy. [16][17] - New models of trans - shipment trade are expected to emerge. Chinese enterprises can set up factories in Mexico through the USMCA to reduce tariffs, and African countries' cotton - related industrial parks enjoy zero - tariff treatment under the AGOA. [18] - The deterioration of the trade situation has a negative impact on the domestic and international cotton markets. China's textile and clothing exports to the US may see a sharp decline, and China's imports of US cotton are likely to stop. [19] 3. International Market Analysis 3.1 Weak Global Production and Consumption with a Slight Increase in Inventory - According to the USDA's April cotton supply - demand report, global cotton production, consumption, and trade volume are all declining, while the inventory is increasing. The global total output decreased by 69,000 bales, consumption decreased by 520,000 bales, and the monthly import volume declined. The global ending inventory in the 2024/25 season increased by more than 520,000 bales. [21][23] 3.2 Stronger US Cotton Exports with Southeast Asian Countries' Rush to Export - During the 90 - day suspension period of the "reciprocal tariff" given by the US government, Southeast Asian countries may make concessions in tariffs. Southeast Asian yarn mills and cotton trading enterprises are rushing to export, which stimulates short - term US cotton consumption. [25] - As of April 10, 2024/25, the total signed sales volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 2.527 million tons, accounting for 107% of the annual predicted total export volume, and the cumulative export shipment volume was 1.674 million tons, accounting for 66% of the total annual signed volume. [25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous metals market is in a resonance period of "black swan shocks" and "gray rhino risks". After the short - term emotional impact of the trade war, the low domestic inventory, policy support, industrial resilience, and long - term scarcity of resources will limit the downside space. In May, there is a risk of the demand side transitioning to the off - season. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of domestic macro - favorable policy expectations on prices and the phased support effect on demand. It is expected that Shanghai Aluminum will fluctuate strongly, with the price range between 19,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton. For alumina, it is expected to continue box - type fluctuations, with the price range between 2,700 - 3,200 yuan/ton [3][4][148]. - The US tariff policy is in a game stage, with uncertainties in the final implementation scope and impact. The negative impacts such as increased trade costs and decreased demand are relatively certain, which will suppress the overall non - ferrous metal prices in the medium and long term [3][146]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Alumina - In April, alumina prices bottomed out and then rebounded. The price dropped continuously from April 1st - 8th, hitting a low of 2,663 yuan/ton, and then rebounded on April 9th due to supply - side production cuts and potential risks at the mine end. However, the over - supply expectation limited the rebound height. As of April 25th, the main alumina contract 2509 closed at 2,846 yuan/ton, down 3.07% from March 31st [6][7]. 3.1.2 Shanghai Aluminum - In April, Trump's tariff policy affected aluminum prices. After the unexpected tariff policy was introduced, the non - ferrous market tumbled, and then rebounded after the delay of tariffs on some countries. Aluminum prices showed certain resilience, with the price briefly hitting a low of 19,000 yuan/ton on April 7th and then rising. As of April 25th, the main Shanghai Aluminum contract 2506 closed at 20,030 yuan/ton, down 2.2% from March 31st [9][11][13]. 3.2 Macro Hotspot Tracking 3.2.1 Interest Rate Cut Path Impacted by Tariff Policy - In the first quarter of 2025, the Fed maintained the federal funds target rate unchanged. After the release of inflation data in February, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts decreased. In March, the inflation data cooled unexpectedly, increasing the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. After the release of the CPI data in March, the market almost fully priced in a Fed interest rate cut in June, but Fed officials emphasized controlling inflation and were not eager to cut interest rates in the short term. Trump pressured the Fed to cut interest rates immediately, and the path of interest rate cuts will be greatly affected by the tariff policy [19][20][24]. 3.2.2 Trump's Tariff Policy - In April, Trump introduced a new round of more comprehensive and far - reaching tariff policies, which had a negative impact on the market. China countered by imposing a 34% tariff on all imported goods from the US. Then Trump postponed the tariffs on non - retaliatory countries for 90 days and exempted some electronic products. The trade war between China and the US escalated, and the tariff policy will lead to a decline in global demand and economic growth, affecting the prices of non - ferrous metals. China's aluminum exports to the US will be affected, and the export demand is expected to decline [25][26][29]. 3.2.3 Domestic Macro Data - In March, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.8%, up 0.4 percentage points; the comprehensive PMI output index was 51.4%, up 0.3 percentage points. The consumer price index decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The industrial producer price index also decreased. The growth rate of M2 and M1 decreased. Social consumption, industrial added value, and GDP all showed growth [31][32][36]. 3.3 Aluminum Market Analysis 3.3.1 Alumina - **Raw Material Supply**: In March, China's aluminum ore imports increased significantly, with imports from Guinea reaching a record high. In April, there was a potential supply risk at a mine in Guinea, but it had little impact. The arrival volume of bauxite is expected to increase in May - June. Overall, the supply of bauxite is expected to continue to increase [41][42][44]. - **Cost and Profit**: In April, the alumina cost continued to decline, but the price fell faster, and the industry's average loss increased. The cost is mainly affected by bauxite prices, which are expected to decline but with limited space. The industry's profit recovery depends more on supply - side adjustments. If the cumulative production cuts increase in May, the industry's loss pressure may be alleviated [45][48][54]. - **Supply**: In April, production cuts, restarts, and new capacity releases coexisted. The production cut scale expanded, giving the futures price upward momentum, but the long - term over - supply expectation remained unchanged, suppressing the price rebound. The overall supply of alumina is expected to increase in the future, and it is necessary to pay attention to the capacity operation in high - cost areas and the release speed of new capacity [55][60][61]. - **Demand**: Domestic demand for alumina is relatively stable, while export demand is weakening. Overseas alumina production has increased, and the price has decreased, narrowing the price difference between domestic and foreign markets. It is expected that the future export data will decline, and the overall supply of alumina will exceed demand [62][66][69]. - **Spot Market**: In April, the bearish sentiment in the alumina spot market eased slightly, and the price rebounded in the middle and late April due to production cuts. The price in the north may rebound, while the price in the south is expected to be stable. The rebound space of the spot price is limited [72][75][78]. - **Futures Inventory**: Since April, the total alumina futures inventory has fluctuated between 200,000 - 300,000 tons, at a relatively high level in history [81]. 3.3.2 Aluminum - **Cost and Profit**: In April, the electrolytic aluminum smelting cost decreased due to the decline in alumina and electricity prices. The industry's average profit narrowed but remained at a high level. In May, the cost is expected to fluctuate slightly, and the industry profit is expected to remain above 3,000 yuan/ton [84][88]. - **Supply**: In March - April, the domestic electrolytic aluminum supply remained strong. The capacity utilization rate was high, and the output increased year - on - year. Overseas production also increased. In April, the import loss narrowed, and the import volume is expected to decline [92][94]. - **Inventory**: In April, the aluminum ingot inventory continued to decline due to the peak consumption season and the increase in the aluminum - water ratio. In May, the inventory decline rate may slow down, and the support for aluminum prices will weaken [100][103]. - **Demand**: In April, the peak demand season continued, and the aluminum price was resilient. However, from May, the domestic demand will enter a four - month off - season, and the export demand is weak. The downstream processing enterprise's start - up rate was above 60%, with differences among different sectors. Macro - policies are expected to support the long - term aluminum consumption [111][115]. - **End - use Demand**: - **Real Estate**: In March, the real estate development climate index increased, but the investment, construction, and sales data were still negative. The demand for aluminum in the real estate sector remained weak [116][117]. - **Home Appliances**: The "trade - in" policy promoted home appliance consumption and aluminum demand. However, the export demand is expected to decline due to the tariff policy. The industry's growth rate will slow down, and the competition will intensify [120][125][129]. - **Automobiles**: In March, automobile production and sales increased year - on - year. Trump's tariff policy on automobiles has an uncertain impact, but the overall demand may be negatively affected. The new energy vehicle export is not overly pessimistic, and the aluminum demand in the automobile sector is expected to continue to increase [130][132]. - **Photovoltaic**: In the first quarter, the photovoltaic industry had a "rush - installation" period, driving up the demand for aluminum. However, after the window period, the demand for aluminum in the photovoltaic sector is expected to decline. Grid investment is expected to increase, which will benefit the demand for aluminum cables [137][139][140]. - **Export**: In March, China's aluminum exports decreased year - on - year. Affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates and tariff policies, the export volume is expected to continue to decline in April [141]. 3.4 Outlook - **Alumina**: Cost support and production cuts will give short - term upward momentum to the alumina price, but in the medium and long term, it will be under pressure due to over - supply. It is expected to continue box - type fluctuations, with a price range of 2,700 - 3,200 yuan/ton [83][144][145]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The US tariff policy is uncertain, but it will suppress non - ferrous metal prices in the medium and long term. The electrolytic aluminum industry profit is expected to remain high. The supply is strong, but the demand will weaken in the medium term. It is expected that Shanghai Aluminum will fluctuate strongly, with a price range of 19,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [146][147][148].

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货油脂油料月报 春播逐步展开 美豆天气溢价或现 油脂油料 2025 年 4 月 27 日 蛋白粕方面，5月南美市场进入收割季，巴西、阿根廷大豆产量调整空间 不大。由于种植利润可观，巴西农民积极销售，经过4月升贴水回落后，5月巴 西升贴水底部或现，市场区间波动，并有上涨的可能。南美大豆市场对于国际 大豆价格的影响边际效应递减。5月CBOT大豆市场关注焦点从南美转向北美。 从天气预报来看，5月美国产区面临高温的局面，降雨则表现出先多后少的局 面。春播可能会受到影响。5月首度公布的25/26年度供求平衡表成为市场关注 的焦点。美国关税政策的走向则直接影响25/26年美豆出口的多寡。美豆25/26 年度供需是否偏紧则需要关注出口的调整。从目前来看，天气溢价炒作或有增 加，美豆或呈现区间震荡偏强的局面。国内豆粕5月供给前紧后松，油厂开工 恢复或要等到5月中旬左右，5月豆粕库存有回升的预期。豆粕现货、基差承压。 连粕市场在3000-3200之间区间偏强震荡运行。如能出现明显回调，回调买入 等待未来天气溢价的出现。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】116号 油脂方面，5月美 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On April 24, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel, 2506, closed at 125,770 yuan/ton. The nickel price showed a trend of first falling and then oscillating upwards this month [2]. - In the US, the business activity in April dropped to a 16 - month low, while prices rose significantly. The market anticipates the Fed's next rate cut may be in June, depending on employment and inflation data [2]. - In China, the Q1 GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year, and various economic indicators showed a good recovery trend. It is expected that the Politburo meeting may introduce a series of incremental policies [3]. - Due to the unexpectedly high US counter - tariffs at the beginning of the month, Shanghai nickel dropped with a gap and is in a low - level upward repair phase this month. The spot trading of refined nickel was good this week. Nickel ore supply is loose, and nickel - iron prices have decreased. Sulfuric acid nickel prices are weak, and downstream demand has not improved significantly. Stainless steel export orders are recovering, but orders for exports to the US are nearly stagnant. The medium - and long - term demand improvement needs further data verification [4][46]. - Before obvious favorable policies are introduced, Shanghai nickel and stainless steel are expected to show a range - bound trend, with limited downside space [47]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In April 2025, nickel showed an oscillating trend, first hitting the bottom and then rebounding. The nickel futures price opened lower with a gap due to US tariff shocks and then quickly recovered, with the lowest point around 115,000 [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Supply - side Analysis - LME and SHFE nickel inventories have been rising steadily since the second half of 2023. As of late April 2025, SHFE inventory was 30,332 tons, and LME inventory was 203,850 tons. As of April 18, 2025, the nickel port inventory was 4.021 million tons [11][13]. - China's imports of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines fluctuate seasonally [13]. - The prices of domestic and imported electrolytic nickel have been weakly oscillating since the beginning of this year, and closed at around 126,310 yuan/ton in early April [18]. - As of April 18, 2025, the price of sulfuric acid nickel dropped to 29,280 yuan/ton [20]. - On April 24, 2025, the Fubao price of nickel - iron (8% - 12%) was 1,000 yuan/nickel [26]. 2.2 Demand - side Analysis - The stainless - steel futures price opened lower with a gap due to the tariff storm and is currently oscillating at a low level, with the oscillation range expected to be between 12,500 yuan/ton and 13,500 yuan/ton [30]. - As of April 18, 2025, the inventories of 300 - series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan were 501,600 tons and 190,400 tons respectively [32]. - The report also presented data on the production of power and energy - storage batteries, as well as new - energy vehicle production, but specific analysis of their impact on demand was not provided [37][42]. 3. Future Outlook - The market is in a low - level upward repair phase due to tariff impacts. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting. If strong stimulus policies are introduced, they may guide the short - and medium - term market trends [46]. - Before obvious favorable policies, Shanghai nickel and stainless steel will mainly show a range - bound trend with limited downside [47].

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货玉米月报 供应趋于偏紧 后市震荡偏强 玉米 2025 年 04 月 25 日 主要结论 综上所述，目前基层余粮见底，玉米及替代性能量原料进口量大幅减少，使 得供应压力逐步减轻；需求端来看，饲料需求有所恢复，深加工消费增长有限， 但总消费仍将增长。结合全渠道库存、进口、消费来看，国内玉米自身供需面偏 紧，需要寻求外源性替代品补充。同时，尽管目前小麦丰产预期仍较强，但今年 最低收购价格上调，小麦不大可能通过大幅下跌，将小麦与玉米价差打至极端低 位，去大幅挤占玉米的市场份额。因此，预计后期玉米震荡偏强运行。操作上， 逢低滚多做多为主。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】116 号 分析师：覃多贵 从业资格号：F3067313 投资咨询号：Z0014857 电话：021-55007766-6671 邮箱：15580@guosen.com.cn 作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合 规渠道， 分析逻辑基于本人的职业理 解，通过合理判断并得出结论，力求 客观、公正，结论不受任何第三方的 授意、影响，特此声明。 独立性申明： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 以信为本 点石成金 ...

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货生猪月报 活体库存继续增加 上行阻力仍存 生猪 2025 年 4 月 25 日 主要结论 4 月生猪现货市场上涨，因受中国对从美国进口的大豆、玉米及肉类产品增 加关税及二次育肥积极性上升的提振，期货近端合约因临近交割补贴水表现偏 强，LH07 合约明显弱于其他合约，主要是市场担心近期二育的入场会增加 7 月 前后的供应压力。基本面来看，根据官方公布的全国能繁母猪存栏数据推算，2025 年三季度理论出栏量都是增加态势；从仔猪出生数据，根据不同商业的统计，样 本企业仔猪出生数据在冬季受损较小，而 2-3 月仔猪出生量的环比增速较高，也 基本印证二、三季度理论出栏量会保持较高。从出栏节奏来看，4 月下半段二次 育肥入场较为活跃，按时间周期来说可能在 6 月前后出栏，考虑目前肥标猪价连 续下跌，且均重已经上升到较高水平，后期需关注活体降库存的出栏压力。操作 上，震荡对待。关注 7-9 逢高反套的机会。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】116 号 分析师：覃多贵 从业资格号：F3067313 投资咨询号：Z0014857 电话：021-55007766-6671 邮箱 ...

研究所 短期冲击，缓慢修复 ——国信期货有色（镍）周报 2025年04月20日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 基本面分析 3 后市展望 研究所 0.00 50,000.00 100,000.00 150,000.00 200,000.00 250,000.00 300,000.00 2020/12/31 2021/02/28 2021/04/30 2021/06/30 2021/08/31 2021/10/31 2021/12/31 2022/02/28 2022/04/30 2022/06/30 2022/08/31 2022/10/31 2022/12/31 2023/02/28 2023/04/30 2023/06/30 2023/08/31 2023/10/31 2023/12/31 2024/02/29 2024/04/30 2024/06/30 2024/08/31 2024/10/31 2024/12/31 2025/02/28 镍期货收盘价(主力合约)(单位：元/吨) 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 研究所 Pa ...

国信期货研究所 供需略有改善 宏观压力仍存 ----国信期货螺纹钢周报 2025年4月20日 国信期货研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 4 后市展望 1 螺纹钢期货行情回顾 2 期货市场环境：宏观、比价、基差 3 螺纹钢供需概况 国信期货研究所 第 一部 P a rt 分 1 螺纹钢期货行情回顾 1.1 近期重要信息概览 国信期货研究所 经济数据 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 Mysteel 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 1. 国家统计局数据显示，2025年1—3月份，全国固定资产投资103174亿元，同比增长4.2%，增速比1—2月份加快0.1个百分点。其中第三产业 中基础设施投资同比增长5.8%，较上月加快0.2个百分点。综合金融数据表现，目前政府加杠杆仍是支撑有效需求的重要手段，固定资产投 资与基建投资的稳步增长。 2. 国家统计局数据显示，1—3月份，全国房地产开发投资19904亿元，同比下降9.9%，降幅扩大0.1个百分点。1—3月份，房地产开发企业房屋 施工面积613705万平方米，同比下降9.5%。其中，住宅施工面积427237万平方米，下降9.9%。房屋新开工面 ...

——国信期货焦煤焦炭周报 2025年4月20日 国信期货研究所 国信期货研究所 焦企库存小幅累积 盘面震荡为主 双焦行情回顾 国信期货研究所 双焦主力合约本周行情回顾 数据来源：文华财经 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 目 录 CONTENTS 国信期货研究所 1 双焦行情回顾 2 焦煤基本面概况 3 焦炭基本面概况 4 双焦后市展望 国信期货研究所 P 第 a 一 r 部 t 分 1 行情回顾 P 第 a 二 r 部 t 分 2 焦煤基本面概况 焦煤产量 国信期货研究所 高频数据显示，截至本周五，样本洗煤厂开工率61.9%，周环比减少0.7%，产地因换工作面以及安全因素限产煤矿 较多，洗煤厂开工小幅下滑。 数据来源：WIND,MYSTEEL 6 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货研究所 焦煤进口 国信期货研究所 海关总署数据显示，2025年1-2月，我国累计进口焦煤1884.55万吨，同比增长5.34%。分国别来看，蒙古、俄罗斯，加拿大、 美国、澳大利亚、印尼是我国焦煤的主要进口来源国。其中蒙煤进口占比34.19%，俄罗斯焦煤进口占比28.07%。去年四季 度美煤价格回落，性价比凸显 ...