Economic Performance - In 2024, China's GDP reached 134.91 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% compared to 2023, successfully meeting the annual target[10] - The industrial added value for large-scale industries increased by 5.8% year-on-year, with a notable 6.2% growth in December[12] - Social retail sales totaled 48.79 trillion yuan, up 3.5% year-on-year, with December showing a 3.7% increase[13] Structural Improvements - The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2% for the year, while the producer price index (PPI) fell by 2.2%[4] - By the end of December, M2 money supply grew by 7.3%, while M1 decreased by 1.4%, indicating a structural improvement in monetary supply[40] - The total social financing stock increased by 8.0% year-on-year, with a cumulative increment of 32.26 trillion yuan in 2024[40] Trade and Investment - Exports grew by 5.9% year-on-year, totaling 3.58 trillion USD, with a trade surplus of 992.2 billion USD in 2024[26] - Fixed asset investment reached 51.44 trillion yuan, growing by 3.2%, but private investment saw a slight decline of 0.1%[18] - The real estate sector continued to struggle, with new housing starts down by 23.0% and sales area down by 12.9%[21] Outlook and Risks - The 2025 GDP target is expected to remain around 5.0%, with potential uncertainties arising from U.S. tariffs under the Trump administration[32] - The RMB exchange rate may shift from absolute depreciation to relative appreciation in 2025, influenced by monetary policy adjustments[56]

Group 1: Economic Policies and Market Trends - China's fiscal policy is expected to become more proactive in 2025, with a projected deficit rate potentially increasing to 3.8%[12] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has decided to suspend open market operations for short-term government bonds, which may lead to a shift of funds from the bond market to the stock market[12] - The U.S. unemployment rate for December 2024 was reported at 4.1%, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 256,000, exceeding expectations of 165,000[11] Group 2: Market Performance - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.02%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 2.02% during the week[32] - The Shanghai Composite Index declined by 1.34%[32] - The CRB Spot Composite Index decreased to 533.74, indicating a downward trend in commodity prices[19] Group 3: Commodity Prices - Wholesale pork prices remained stable at 22.62 CNY/kg, while vegetable prices were also stable at 5.16 CNY/kg[16] - The export container freight index (CCFI) continued to rise, reaching 1560.87[28] - Crude oil prices increased by 2.83%, while copper prices rose by 3.22%[35]

国信期货研究 Page 1 宏观 2024 年 12 月 29 日 国内宏观经济结构性矛盾延续改善。11 月，规上工业增加值相对稳健增 长 5.4%；社零维持底部徘徊，11 月同比增长 3.0%；固投总体仍不理想，1-11 月同比增长 3.3%；民间投资跌幅延续不佳，扩大至下跌 0.4%；房地产市场仍 然未有显著改善，为下跌 10.4%；基建延续较好表现，增速维持近 1 年多以 来的新高，增长 9.4%；11 月出口维持上行趋势同比增长 6.7%，抢出口、高 基数产生波动；社融增量有所回升至 2.34 万亿元；物价水平相对好转，CPI 同比上涨 0.2%、PPI 同比下降 2.5%，M1 跌幅再度显著收窄至同比下降 3.7%， 跌幅较 10 月末收窄 2.4 个百分点；官方制造业 PMI 连续 2 个月扩张。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格 证监许可【2012】116 号 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------| ...

Economic Overview - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the importance of stock buybacks and increasing market value management for central enterprises and listed companies[5] - In November, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.4%, while retail sales increased by 3.0%, a decline of 1.8 percentage points from October[31] - From January to November, fixed asset investment grew by 3.3%, with private investment declining by 0.4%[31] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China announced a moderately loose monetary policy, maintaining the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.1% for one year and 3.6% for five years[10] - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25%-4.50%[35] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.70%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.60% during the week[54] - The 30-year treasury futures rose by 1.47%, indicating a positive sentiment in the bond market[54] Commodity Prices - The wholesale price of pork decreased to 22.81 CNY/kg, while vegetable prices remained stable at 5.03 CNY/kg[43] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) continued to decline, reaching 990 points, reflecting a downturn in shipping rates[50] Fiscal Data - From January to November, national public budget revenue decreased by 0.6%, while expenditure increased by 2.8%[33] - Government fund revenue fell by 18.4%, with land use rights revenue down by 22.4%[33]

Economic Policy Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes a more proactive macro policy for 2025, aiming to expand domestic demand and stabilize the real estate and stock markets[4] - The fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is expected to reach approximately 3.8%[14] - Monetary policy is shifting from "prudent" to "moderately loose," indicating increased operational space for monetary policy[14] Economic Indicators - November CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, while PPI decreased by 2.5%, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points compared to October[7] - In November, the total import and export value reached $527.18 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, with exports at $312.31 billion (up 6.7%) and imports at $214.87 billion (down 3.9%) resulting in a trade surplus of $97.44 billion[7] - M2 money supply grew by 7.1% year-on-year, while M1 decreased by 3.7%[11] Market Performance - Major A-share indices declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.36% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.73%[45] - Government bond futures saw increases, with the 2-year bond futures up 0.20% and the 10-year bond futures up 0.55%[45] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) continued to decline, reaching 1051 points[38] Trade and Export Trends - November exports to ASEAN grew by 14.9%, while exports to the EU and the US increased by 7.2% and 8.0%, respectively[17] - The export scale for November was $312.31 billion, maintaining an upward trend despite a decrease in year-on-year growth rate due to a higher base effect from the previous year[17]

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|--------------------|---------------------------|--------|----------| | 研究咨询部 | | | | | | 人行运用多项货币政策工具维持宽松 | ——国信期货宏观周报 | 官方制造业 PMI 2024-12-01 | 连续 2 | 个月扩张 | | | | | | | 研究咨询部 1 周度回顾 3 大类资产 目 录 2 高频数据 CONTENTS 4 周度关注 研究咨询部 =期货有限责任公。 Part1 第一部分 周度回顾 1125-1201 UOSEN 1.1 周度回顾（1125-1201） 研究咨询部 ⚫ 周一，11月25日。根据中国人民银行消息，为维护银行体系流动性合理充裕，2024年11 月25日，人民银行开展9000亿元中期借贷便利（MLF）操作，期限1年，最高投标利率 2.30%，最低投标利率1.90%，中标利率2.00%。 ⚫ 周二，11月26日。根据央视新闻的报道，当地时间25日，美国当选 ...

Economic Overview - In 2024, China's GDP reached 94.97 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%[10] - The contribution rates to GDP growth were 49.9% from final consumption, 26.3% from capital formation, and 23.8% from imports and exports[11] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 42.32 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%[40] - Manufacturing investment grew by 9.3%, while real estate investment saw a decline of 10.3%[46] Export Performance - From January to October 2024, total exports amounted to 2.93 trillion USD, recovering to 2022 levels[26] - In October 2024, exports to ASEAN, EU, and the US increased by 15.8%, 12.7%, and 8.1% respectively[26] Monetary Policy - M2 growth rate decreased from 8.7% at the beginning of the year to 7.5% by October 2024[76] - The People's Bank of China is expected to continue net buying government bonds to improve monetary supply structure[74] Price Levels - CPI showed slight improvement, while PPI fell by 2.9% in October 2024[59] - The upward pressure on prices is anticipated to come from monetary policy and improved market demand[59] Industrial Performance - Industrial profits fell by 3.5% year-on-year by the end of Q3 2024, with state-owned enterprises facing significant pressure[70] - The manufacturing PMI indicated weak expansion, with production indices showing some recovery[80] Real Estate Market - Real estate development saw a 12.4% decline in construction area and a 22.6% drop in new starts from January to October 2024[48] - Policy measures are expected to gradually stabilize the real estate market in 2025[52] Geopolitical Factors - The potential re-election of Trump in 2024 may lead to increased tariffs on Chinese goods, impacting trade dynamics[32] - The anticipated tariffs could reach as high as 60% under extreme scenarios, affecting China's exports to the US[32] Consumer Spending - Retail sales totaled 39.90 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% in 2024[22] - The recovery in consumer spending is supported by rising asset income and active private sector production[22]

Economic Indicators - M2 growth rate increased to 7.5% year-on-year as of the end of October, up 0.7 percentage points from September[4] - M1 decreased by 6.1% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 1.3 percentage points compared to September[4] - Social financing stock grew by 7.8% with an increment of 1.4 trillion yuan in October[4] Market Performance - The industrial added value for October grew by 5.3%, with foreign and Hong Kong-Macau enterprises seeing a rebound to 2.9% growth[8] - Retail sales recorded a growth of 4.8%, the highest since the beginning of the year, with commodity retail growth at 5.0%[8] - Fixed asset investment growth was 3.4%, while private investment saw a decline of 0.3%[8] Real Estate and Policy Changes - Real estate market remains weak with a decline of 10.3%, but tax policy adjustments aim to reduce transaction costs and stimulate demand[6] - The government announced an increase in public holidays, which is expected to boost consumer spending and tourism[10] Inflation and Monetary Policy - October CPI rose by 0.3%, while PPI fell by 2.9%, indicating weak price levels[8] - The Federal Reserve's stance suggests no urgency for interest rate cuts, with a 61.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December[12]

Group 1: Economic Policies and Data - The Chinese government has introduced a fiscal policy totaling 12 trillion yuan to address hidden debts and stabilize the economy[8] - In October, China's exports grew significantly by 12.7% year-on-year, the highest monthly growth rate since July 2022[12] - The trade surplus for October was reported at 95.72 billion USD, with exports valued at 309.06 billion USD and imports at 213.34 billion USD[5] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to a target range of 4.5%-4.75%[5] - The Swedish central bank also lowered its policy rate by 50 basis points to 2.75%[8] - The Bank of England reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%[8] Group 3: Price Levels and Inflation - China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% year-on-year in October, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.9%[11] - The decline in PPI was influenced by a 3.3% drop in production material prices, which contributed to a 2.45 percentage point decrease in the index[13] - Transportation and communication prices saw a significant drop of 4.8%, the largest decline in 18 months, primarily due to falling international oil prices[12] Group 4: Market Performance - Major Chinese stock indices experienced substantial gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 5.51% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 6.75%[37] - The 10-year government bond futures rose by 0.26%, indicating a positive sentiment in the bond market[37] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased to 1495 points, reflecting a recovery in shipping rates[31]

Economic Indicators - The onshore USD/CNY exchange rate broke 7.14, reaching a high of 7.1435 on October 29[5] - The U.S. Q3 GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter initial value was 2.8%, slightly below the expected 2.9% and previous 3.0%[5] - Eurozone Q3 GDP quarter-on-quarter initial value was 0.4%, exceeding the expected 0.2%[5] - China's official manufacturing PMI for October was 50.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from September, indicating a return to expansion[8] Labor Market - The U.S. unemployment rate for October remained at 4.1%, unchanged from the previous month[5] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 12,000 jobs in October, significantly lower than the previous month's revised figure of 223,000[5] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 500 billion CNY reverse repo operation, indicating liquidity support[9] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in its upcoming meeting on November 8, following weaker job growth[11] Housing Market - Major Chinese banks announced a new pricing mechanism for commercial personal housing loans, allowing borrowers to adjust the repricing cycle to three or six months[6] Commodity Prices - The average wholesale price of pork remained stable at 24.44 CNY/kg, while vegetable prices declined to 5.37 CNY/kg[14] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) continued to decline, reaching 1378 points[24] Stock Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.84%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.55%[29] - The 10-year government bond futures rose by 0.38%, indicating a flight to safety amid stock market declines[29]