Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The passage suggests that the approval of the US stablecoin - related bill, the expectation of Fed rate cuts, potential disruptions in overseas copper mine production or transportation, and the decline in domestic electrolytic copper social inventory may lead to a cautiously bullish trend in Shanghai copper prices. It advises investors to hold existing long positions cautiously and pay attention to support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 22, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,740 yuan, up 40 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 73,257 lots, down 6,755 lots. The open interest was 166,726 lots, up 29,109 lots. The inventory was 25,507 tons, down 2,670 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 79,755 yuan, up 200 yuan, and the spot - futures spread was 15 yuan, up 160 yuan [2]. - **Spot Premiums**: In different regions, the spot premiums of electrolytic copper showed various changes. For example, the Guangzhou spot premium was - 10 yuan, down 25 yuan; the North China spot premium was - 120 yuan, down 10 yuan; and the East China spot premium was 90 yuan, up 15 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: On July 22, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,888 dollars, up 31 dollars. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 01 (presumably data error in the text), and the previous day's value was 124,850 tons [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on July 22, 2025, was 5.768 dollars, up 0.19 dollars. The total inventory was 243,781 tons, up 944 tons [2]. 3.2 Industry News - **Production Forecast**: Nornickel expects this year's copper production to be 343,000 tons, lower than the previous estimate. Anglo Asian Mining PLC's Denirli copper mine in the Fuzuli - Karabakh Economic Region has started production, with an expected output of 4,000 tons in 2025 and 15,000 tons after 2026 [2]. - **Export Outlook**: In June, the overall terminal demand was good. Although the export volume of some refined copper rod enterprises decreased, the demand in the Southeast Asian market remained stable, and the domestic deep - processing transfer demand increased. SMM expects the export volume of refined copper rod wires to recover in July [2]. 3.3 Macro - economic Situation The US Senate passed a stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest in assets like gold and digital currencies. The import tariff has pushed up commodity prices, leading to a slight increase in the inflation rate in US consumer prices in June. However, the US RPP annual rate in June was 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value. The expectation of Powell's early departure and Fed rate cuts has increased, raising the probability of rate cuts in September or December [3]. 3.4 Investment Strategy - **Upstream**: The China copper concentrate import index is negative but rising compared to last week. The export (import, inventory) volume of copper concentrates at ports in the world (China) has decreased (decreased, increased) compared to last week. The production (import) volume of domestic scrap copper in July may change (decrease, increase). Some smelters have production issues, while others are starting new projects or expanding production, which may lead to an increase in the domestic production (import) volume of crude copper and electrolytic copper in July. The import window for electrolytic copper is closed, and the inventory in China's bonded area remains flat, while the social inventory has decreased, and the LME inventory has increased [5]. - **Downstream**: The daily processing fee for refined copper rods for power and cable wrapping in East China has increased compared to last week. The overall demand is still weak, but the capacity utilization rate of some copper - related industries has increased. However, due to factors such as the Sino - US tariff issue and the traditional off - season, the capacity utilization rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic steel enterprises in July may decline (decrease, decrease, decrease, increase). The domestic electrolytic copper holders are actively supporting prices, and the supply of deliverable trading brands is tight, while the price of non - standard trading brands is low [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The passage suggests that the approval of the US stablecoin - related bill, the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, fluctuations in overseas copper mine production or transportation, and the decline in the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory may lead to a cautiously bullish trend in the Shanghai copper price. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 22, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,740, up 40 from the previous day; the trading volume was 73,257 hands, down 6,755; the open interest was 166,726 hands, up 29,109; the inventory was 25,507 tons, down 2,670 [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on July 22 was 9,888, up 31 from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 124,850 tons, a decrease of 124,850 compared to the previous day [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on July 22 was 5.768, up 0.19 from July 18. The total inventory was 243,781 tons, up 944 [2]. Information - **Production and Export**: In June, the overall terminal demand was good. Although the export volume of many refined copper rod enterprises decreased, the overall demand in the Southeast Asian market remained stable, and the domestic deep - processing transfer demand increased. In July, with the decline in copper prices, the foreign trade market improved, and SMM expected the export volume of refined copper rod wires to recover in July. The production of Anglo Asian Mining's Denirli copper mine is expected to increase by the end of this year, with an expected output of 4,000 tons in 2025 and 15,000 tons after 2026 [2]. - **Macro - economy**: The US Senate passed a stablecoin - related bill, allowing pension funds and other assets to invest in gold, digital currencies, etc. The import tariff increased the commodity price, leading to a slight increase in the inflation rate of US consumer goods in June. The RPP annual rate of US production adjustment in June was 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value, increasing the expectation of Powell's early departure and the Fed's interest - rate cut, which raised the probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September or December [3]. Investment Strategy - **Upstream**: The China copper concentrate import index is negative but has increased compared to last week. The port copper concentrate throughput (inbound, outbound, and inventory) in the world (China) has decreased compared to last week. Although there are some factors restricting the supply of scrap copper, the opening of the refined copper import window and the transit supply from countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Thailand may lead to an increase in the domestic scrap copper production (import) in July. Some smelters have production problems, while some new projects are under construction or expected to be put into operation [5]. - **Downstream**: The daily processing fee for refined copper rods for power and enameled wires in East China has increased compared to last week. Affected by the traditional off - season of consumption and the Sino - US tariff issue, the capacity utilization rate and production volume of domestic steel enterprises in July may decline, but the capacity utilization rate of copper foil may increase [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The passage of the U.S. stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest in assets like gold and digital currencies, the increased expectation of Powell's early departure and subsequent Fed rate - cuts, along with continuous gold purchases by global central banks and geopolitical risks, may make precious metal prices more likely to rise than fall. It is recommended that investors mainly set up long positions on price pull - backs. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for different gold and silver markets [1]. 3. Summary by Content a. Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On 2025 - 07 - 22, the closing price was 780.00 yuan/gram, up 3.00 yuan from the previous day and 7.80 yuan from last week. Trading volume was 49,546.00, an increase of 9,284.00 from the previous day and 22,476.00 from last week [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price on 2025 - 07 - 22 was 9368.00 yuan/kg, up 142.00 yuan from the previous day and 259.00 yuan from last week. Trading volume was 537,430.00, an increase of 236,642.00 from the previous day and 53,632.00 from last week [1]. - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price on 2025 - 07 - 22 was 3444.00, up 33.70 from the previous day and 91.90 from last week. Trading volume was 217,981.00, an increase of 32,635.00 from the previous day and 37,040.00 from last week [1]. - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price on 2025 - 07 - 22 was 39.66, up 0.42 from the previous day and 1.25 from last week. Trading volume was 57,469.00, an increase of 7,611.00 from the previous day and a decrease of 18,727.00 from last week [1]. b. Important Information - **U.S. News**: Trump announced a trade deal with Japan where Japan will invest $550 billion in the U.S., and the U.S. will get 90% of the profits. There are also developments regarding Powell's "resignation" and calls for Fed rate - cuts. The U.S. House passed a stablecoin - related bill and inflation data showed mixed trends [1]. - **European News**: The European Central Bank cut interest rates in June, and there are expectations of further rate - cuts by the end of 2025. The eurozone and German (French) manufacturing PMI and CPI data have influenced market expectations [1]. - **UK News**: The Bank of England cut the key rate in May and continued bond - selling. With CPI data and GDP trends, there is an increased expectation of rate - cuts in August and by the end of 2025 [1]. - **Japan News**: The Bank of Japan raised rates in January and may reduce bond purchases in 2026. There is an expectation of a rate hike by the end of 2025 based on CPI data [1]. c. Price Ratios and Other Commodities - **Precious Metal Price Ratios**: The ratios of gold to silver prices in different markets (Shanghai, New York, London) showed certain changes on 2025 - 07 - 22 compared to previous days and weeks [1]. - **Other Commodities**: Prices of INE crude, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX crude, Shanghai copper, LME copper, Shanghai rebar, and Dalian iron ore also had their respective changes on 2025 - 07 - 22 [1]. d. Interest Rates and Stock Indices - **Interest Rates**: Shanghai inter - bank lending rates (SHIBOR), U.S. 10 - year Treasury yields, and inflation - adjusted yields had changes on 2025 - 07 - 22 [1]. - **Stock Indices**: Major global stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, UK FTSE 100, French CAC40, German DAX, Japanese Nikkei 225, and South Korean Composite Index showed different trends on 2025 - 07 - 22 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - No clear core viewpoints presented in the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Commodity Prices - The price of crude oil on July 22, 2025, was $566.38 per ton, up 1.13% from the previous value [1] - The price of the Northeast Asia ethylene index was $821.00 per ton on July 22, 2025, with no change from the previous value [1] - The ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in East China was 640.00 yuan per ton on July 22, 2025, with no change from the previous value [1] - The price of the main contract of methanol futures on July 22, 2025, was 443.00 yuan per ton, up 0.9% from the previous settlement price [1] - The price of the near - month contract of methanol futures on July 22, 2025, was 422.60 yuan per ton, with no change [1] - The intermediate price of ethylene glycol in East China was 447.00 yuan per ton on July 22, 2025, with no change [1] Price Indexes - The price index of polyester was 8500.00 yuan per ton on July 22, 2025, with no change [1] - The price index of polyester chips was 6950.00 yuan per ton on July 22, 2025, with no change [1] - The price index of polyester staple fiber was 6800.00 yuan per ton on July 22, 2025, up 0.15% compared to a certain reference [1] - The price index of bottle - grade chips was 5990.00 yuan per ton on July 22, 2025, up 0.1% compared to a certain reference [1] Operating Conditions - The operating rate of oil - based ethylene glycol was 58.76% on July 22, 2025, with no change [1] - The operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 30.30% on July 22, 2025 [1] - The load rate of the PTA industrial chain factory was 80.18% on a certain date, and that of the Jiangsu - Zhejiang PTA weaving machine industry was 58.02% on July 22, 2025 [1] Other Information - The price of foreign - market oil - based ethylene glycol was $92.03 per ton on a certain date [1] - The after - tax gross profit of a certain production method was 1631.02 yuan per ton on July 22, 2025 [1]

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - PTA is expected to move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor. The polyester industry chain is currently facing weak demand and is expected to fluctuate with costs. PX, PTA, and PR are all expected to oscillate. (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2] Summary by Directory Price Information - **Upstream Products**: On July 22, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settled at $65.31 per barrel, down 2.81% from the previous value; Brent crude oil futures settled at $68.59 per barrel, down 0.90%. Naphtha spot price (CFR Japan) was $566.38 per ton, down 1.13%. The spot price of isomeric xylene (FOB South Korea) was $715.00 per ton, down 0.35% [1]. - **PTA Products**: CZCE TA main - contract closed at 4,794 yuan per ton on July 22, 2025, up 0.29%; the settlement price was 4,772 yuan per ton, down 0.08%. The spot price of domestic PTA was 4,775 yuan per ton, down 0.52%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,772 yuan per ton, down 0.21%, and the outer - market index was $630 per ton, up 0.48% [1]. - **PX Products**: CZCE PX main - contract closed at 6,886 yuan per ton on July 22, 2025, up 0.35%; the settlement price was 6,852 yuan per ton, up 0.03%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene remained unchanged at 6,719 yuan per ton. The PXN spread was $276.62 per ton, up 2.66%, and the PX - MX spread was $128.00 per ton, up 2.54% [1]. - **PR Products**: CZCE PR main - contract closed at 5,996 yuan per ton on July 22, 2025, up 0.20%; the settlement price was 5,980 yuan per ton, up 0.07%. The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,990 yuan per ton, down 0.17%, and in the South China market, it remained unchanged at 6,030 yuan per ton [1]. - **Downstream Products**: On July 22, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,580 yuan per ton, down 0.15%; the index of bottle - grade chips was 5,990 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. Other downstream product price indices remained unchanged [2]. Operating Conditions - On July 22, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 77.74%, unchanged; the PTA factory load rate was 80.59%, unchanged; the polyester factory load rate was 87.01%, up 0.21%; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 71.93%, unchanged; and the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 58.02%, unchanged [1]. Production and Sales - On July 22, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 105%, up 55 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 48%, up 8 percentage points; and the sales rate of polyester chips was 82%, up 11 percentage points [1]. Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 - million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical transformation for three months starting from August 1 [2]. Important News - Macroeconomic sentiment has pressured oil prices downward. Fitch has downgraded the outlook for some US industries in 2025. PTA will have new device put into production in the third quarter, creating a mismatch with PX. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong support. The future profitability of PX depends on unexpected factors. The unexpected situation of the reforming device has changed the current dull fundamentals, but during the off - season of polyester consumption, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operating rates after the significant drop in PTA processing fees [2]. Summary - PTA futures rose during the day, while the average spot price fell. The anti - involution expectation is favorable for the commodity market, but the crude oil market was weak during the session. PTA supply is sufficient, and the spot basis has weakened. PTA processing fees are in a low - level range, and unplanned device maintenance is difficult to boost prices due to new device production expectations on the supply side and lackluster demand during the off - season. In July, polyester factories actually carried out maintenance, and the operating rate decreased significantly compared to June. The macro - impact on the polyester industry chain has weakened, and it has returned to fundamental drivers. The weakening supply - demand expectation has led to a full - line decline in prices. Entering the off - season of textile and clothing, if polyester deepens production cuts in the future, the industry chain contradictions will intensify, making it more difficult for prices to rise. In terms of industry chain profits, the strong driving force of the cost side has caused the profit distribution pattern of the industry chain to tilt towards raw materials again [2]. Trading Strategy - PTA fluctuated higher, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,794 yuan per ton (up 0.38%) and an intraday trading volume of 1.08 million lots; PX prices increased, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,886 yuan per ton (up 0.53%) and an intraday trading volume of 204,600 lots; PR followed the cost trend, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,996 yuan per ton (up 0.33%) and an intraday trading volume of 52,600 lots. In the overnight crude oil market, concerns about potential trade frictions between major oil - consuming countries the US and the EU and the upcoming OPEC production meeting in September led to a third - consecutive - day decline in European and American crude oil futures. The current demand in the polyester industry chain is not optimistic, and it is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all oscillate [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - In the short term, policy expectations outweigh the fundamentals for urea. Although the urea price rose on the previous trading day, the supply pressure remains high with daily production close to 200,000 tons and enterprise inventory around 750,000 tons. The top - dressing demand in July provides price support, but if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand does not supplement, the urea price will face significant downward pressure [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On July 22, UR01 closed at 1,809 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan or 1.63% from July 21), UR05 at 1,815 yuan/ton (up 28 yuan or 1.57%), UR09 at 1,817 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan or 0.28%), and Shandong spot at 1,840 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan or 0.55%) [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Grained)**: On July 22, prices in Shanxi were 1,720 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Henan 1,850 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan or 0.54%), in Hebei 1,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Northeast 1,760 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu 1,840 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] - **Upstream Costs**: On July 22, the anthracite coal price in Henan was 1,000 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Shanxi 820 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] - **Downstream Prices**: On July 22, the compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Shandong was 2,950 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Henan 2,550 yuan/ton (unchanged). The melamine price in Shandong was 5,007 yuan/ton (up 17 yuan or 0.34%), and in Jiangsu 5,200 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] 2. Basis and Spread - On July 22, the basis of Shandong spot - UR was 25 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan from July 21), and the spread of 01 - 05 was - 6 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan) [1] 3. Trading Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1,820 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,828 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,782 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,817 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1,806 yuan/ton, and the position was 191,764 lots [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoint - In the short term, policy expectations outweigh the fundamentals for urea. Although the urea futures (UR) fluctuated upwards and closed at 1817 on the previous trading day, and the upcoming industrial growth - stabilization plan may boost the market, the supply pressure of urea remains high with a daily output close to 200,000 tons and an enterprise inventory of about 750,000 tons. While the top - dressing demand in July supports the price, the urea price may face significant downward pressure if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand does not pick up [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Futures Prices**: On July 22, UR01 closed at 1809 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan or 1.63% from July 21), UR05 at 1815 yuan/ton (up 28 yuan or 1.57%), UR09 at 1817 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan or 0.28%), and the Shandong price at 1840 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan or 0.55%) [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - grained)**: On July 22, the prices in Shanxi, Hebei, and Northeast remained unchanged at 1720, 1800, and 1760 yuan/ton respectively. The price in Henan was 1850 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan or 0.54%), and the price in Jiangsu was 1840 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: The Shandong spot - UR basis was 25 yuan/ton on July 22, down 18 yuan from July 21, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 6 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2950 and 2550 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Shandong was 5007 yuan/ton (up 17 yuan or 0.34%), and in Jiangsu it remained unchanged at 5200 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - Not mentioned in the report Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1820 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1828 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1782 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1817 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1806 yuan/ton, and the position was 191,764 lots [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly (Lead) - Macro sentiment is favorable, and lead prices may consolidate strongly [1] - Report Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Qi Yurong (F03100031, Z0021060) [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The supply side shows an incremental trend as primary lead smelters resume production after maintenance and secondary lead smelters'开工 increases due to improved raw material arrivals. Meanwhile, the consumption side is gradually entering the traditional peak season, and demand is expected to improve. Considering the strong support from the raw material side and positive macro sentiment, lead prices may be strong in the short term, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price decreased by 1.33% to 16,700 yuan/ton; Shanghai lead main contract closing price decreased by 1.49% to 16,820 yuan/ton; LME lead closing price (electronic disk) decreased by 0.27% to 2,011.5 US dollars/ton [13] 2. Primary Lead - Domestic lead concentrate processing fee decreased by 50 yuan/metal ton to 500 yuan/metal ton, and imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at -55 US dollars/dry ton. The tight ore situation remains unchanged, and TC quotes are weakly stable. Smelter profits fluctuated slightly, and as of July 11, smelter profits (excluding by-product revenues such as zinc and copper) were 93.5 yuan/ton [31] - Primary lead 开工 rate decreased to 65.82% month-on-month. Due to the price inversion of secondary lead and delivery and position transfer, primary lead factory inventories declined [32][36] - The total weekly production of deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises was 47,015 tons, with some fluctuations due to regular maintenance and recovery [38] 3. Secondary Lead - As of July 18, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,250 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The price of scrap batteries decreased due to recyclers' fear of falling prices, but the tight supply pattern did not improve substantially [45] - As of July 21, the comprehensive profit and loss of large-scale secondary lead enterprises was -455 yuan/ton, and that of small and medium-sized secondary lead enterprises was -680 yuan/ton [51] - As of July 17, secondary lead raw material inventory was 146,350 tons, and finished product inventory was 20,860 tons. The finished product inventory decreased due to improved downstream purchasing sentiment and long-term order delivery [55] - Secondary lead enterprises' 开工 rate increased by 2.4 percentage points to 37.9%. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 39,600 tons, showing an increase. The 开工 rate increased due to improved raw material inventory of secondary lead smelters as scrap battery holders sold due to fear of falling lead prices [58] 4. Lead Batteries - The 开工 rate of lead batteries increased by 0.2 percentage points to 70.96%. As the traditional peak season approaches, some enterprises reported improved orders, but high temperatures in the north affected 开工 rates. Additionally, some lead battery enterprises may face tariffs of 25 - 70% due to anti-dumping investigations, leading to pre-tariff export rush [64] 5. Import and Export - As of July 11, the export loss of refined lead was about 2,600 yuan/ton. As of July 18, the import profit was -485.5 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [74] 6. Inventory - As of July 17, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 69,000 tons, showing an increase. The social inventory accumulated due to the large price difference between futures and spot and position transfer and delivery by holders [83] - As of July 18, SHFE refined lead inventory was 62,300 tons, showing a month-on-month increase, and LME inventory was 268,400 tons, also showing an increase [86] - The monthly supply and demand balance sheet shows the production, export, import, consumption, and inventory data of primary and secondary lead from January 2024 to June 2025 [87]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - In the short term, policy expectations for urea are greater than its fundamentals. Although the supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily output close to 200,000 tons at a high level and enterprise inventory still around 750,000 tons, the top - dressing demand in July provides support for prices. However, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: On July 21, UR01 closed at 1,780 yuan/ton (up 3.49% from July 18), UR05 at 1,787 yuan/ton (up 3.24%), UR09 at 1,812 yuan/ton (up 3.84%). [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices**: On July 21, prices in Shandong were 1,830 yuan/ton (up 1.10%), in Henan 1,840 yuan/ton (up 1.66%), in Hebei 1,800 yuan/ton (up 1.69%), and in Jiangsu 1,840 yuan/ton (up 1.66%). The price in Northeast China remained unchanged at 1,760 yuan/ton. [1] - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of upstream anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,000 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of downstream compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2,950 yuan/ton and 2,550 yuan/ton respectively. The price of melamine in Shandong decreased by 0.20% to 4,990 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5,200 yuan/ton. [1] 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased from 79 yuan/ton on July 18 to 43 yuan/ton on July 21, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton. The spread of 01 - 05 increased from - 11 yuan/ton to - 7 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton. [1] 3.3 Trading Information - On the previous trading day, the main contract 2509 of urea futures opened at 1,790 yuan/ton, reached a high of 1,818 yuan/ton, a low of 1,790 yuan/ton, and closed at 1,812 yuan/ton, with a settlement price of 1,807 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 195,945 lots. [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View In the short term, policy expectations outweigh the fundamentals for urea. Although the supply pressure of urea remains high with daily production close to 200,000 tons and enterprise inventory around 750,000 tons, the top - dressing demand in July provides price support. However, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. The recent strengthening of most commodities is due to the upcoming release of a stable - growth work plan for ten key industries announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: On July 21, UR01 closed at 1,780 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan or 3.49% from July 18), UR05 at 1,787 yuan/ton (up 56 yuan or 3.24%), and UR09 at 1,812 yuan/ton (up 67 yuan or 3.84%) [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: In various regions, prices increased, such as in Shandong (up 20 yuan or 1.10% to 1,830 yuan/ton), Henan (up 30 yuan or 1.66% to 1,840 yuan/ton), and Hebei (up 30 yuan or 1.69% to 1,800 yuan/ton). Only the price in the Northeast remained unchanged at 1,760 yuan/ton [1]. - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained stable at 1,000 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2,950 yuan/ton and 2,550 yuan/ton respectively. The price of melamine in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan or - 0.20% to 4,990 yuan/ton, while the price in Jiangsu remained stable at 5,200 yuan/ton [1]. b. Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased from 79 yuan/ton to 43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan [1]. - The spread between 01 - 05 increased from - 11 yuan/ton to - 7 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan [1]. c. Trading Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1,790 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,818 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,790 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,812 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,807 yuan/ton. The position volume of 2509 was 195,945 lots [1].