| 贵金属日评20250724:欧盟持续加码对美国关税报复,关注欧洲央行7月利率决议 | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-07-23 | 2025-07-22 | 2025-07-17 | 收盘价 | 792. 90 | 784. 84 | 776. 28 | 8.06 | 16. 62 | | | | | | | | 成交量 | 375362.00 | 286795.00 | -88, 567.00 | 215395.00 | 71, 400. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | 222387.00 | 216722.00 | 203084.00 | 5. 665. 00 | 19, 303. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 28857.00 | 28857.00 | 28872.00 | -15.00 | 0. 00 | 上海黄金 | 收盘价 ...

Report Title - Aluminum Industry Chain Daily Review 20250724: Supply and demand of domestic bauxite in July are expected to be loose, and the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased month-on-month [1] Report Core View - The supply and demand of domestic bauxite in July are expected to be loose, and the social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum has increased month-on-month. The prices and production of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy have different trends, and investors are advised to hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high levels [1][3] Key Data Summary Futures and Spot Prices - The closing price of the active contract of Shanghai Aluminum futures on July 23, 2025, was 20,790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan compared with the previous day. The trading volume was 144,609 lots, a decrease of 8,809 lots, and the open interest was 327,482 lots, a decrease of 3,415 lots [2] - The average price of SMM A00 electrolytic aluminum was 20,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan. The Shanghai Aluminum basis was 60 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan [2] - The average national alumina price was 3,239.18 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.41 yuan. The average price of alumina in various regions also showed an upward trend [2] Price Spreads - The spread between the near-month and far-month contracts of Shanghai Aluminum showed different changes. For example, the spread between Shanghai Aluminum Continuous One and Shanghai Aluminum Continuous Two decreased by 20 yuan to 45 yuan [2] - The spread between different contracts of alumina also changed. For example, the spread between Alumina Continuous One and Alumina Continuous Two decreased by 9 yuan to 45 yuan [2] Inventory - The inventory of Shanghai Aluminum futures was 57,723 tons, a decrease of 3,161 tons. The social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased month-on-month [2][3] - The inventory of LME aluminum futures showed different trends, and the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was N/A on July 23, 2025 [2] Industry News and Company Dynamics Alumina - Shanxi and Henan have relevant policies for bauxite mines. The production and inventory of domestic alumina have changed, and the production of Chinese electrolytic aluminum plants' alumina inventory has increased month-on-month [3] - Some alumina projects are under construction, such as the 1 million-ton alumina production capacity energy-saving and efficiency improvement project in Jinzhong, Shanxi, and the 2.6 million-ton alumina production capacity project in Fangchenggang, Guangxi [3] Electrolytic Aluminum - Some companies have expansion plans for electrolytic aluminum projects, such as O Xiangbo Alloy's plan to raise up to 600 million yuan through private placement for its recycled deformed lead alloy project [3] - The production and inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum have changed, and the production of some downstream products may decrease month-on-month [3] Aluminum Alloy - American companies' procurement of scrap aluminum has an impact on the domestic market. The production and inventory of domestic aluminum alloy have different trends, and the production of some products may increase or decrease month-on-month [3] Trading Strategy - Alumina: The decline in the price of imported bauxite weakens production costs, but the upward space for alumina prices is limited. It is recommended that investors hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high levels, and pay attention to the support level around 3,000 - 3,200 and the pressure level around 3,800 - 4,200 [3] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The passage of the US Stablecoin Act and the high probability of the Fed's interest rate cut, along with the increase in alumina prices, push up the production cost of electrolytic aluminum. The upward space for electrolytic aluminum prices is limited. It is recommended to hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high levels, and pay attention to the support level around 20,000 - 20,300 and the pressure level around 21,000 - 21,500 for Shanghai Aluminum, and the support level around 2,300 - 2,500 and the pressure level around 2,700 - 2,800 for LME Aluminum [3] - Aluminum Alloy: The passage of the US Stablecoin Act and the high probability of the Fed's interest rate cut, along with the increase in domestic aluminum alloy inventory, limit the upward space for aluminum alloy prices. It is recommended to hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high levels, and pay attention to the support level around 19,700 - 20,000 and the pressure level around 20,500 - 21,000 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamental outlook for methanol is weak, but short - term policy expectations outweigh fundamental impacts. It is recommended to wait and observe temporarily. The valuation of methanol is relatively high, and there is room for the repair of inland downstream profits. The current high raw material inventory of downstream MTO enterprises makes port inventory accumulation likely, which will suppress spot prices in East China [1] Summary by Section 1. Price Information 1.1 Methanol Futures Prices - MA01 closed at 2497 yuan/ton on July 23, 2025, down 39 yuan/ton (-1.54%) from the previous day; MA05 was 2428 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (-1.34%); MA09 was 2411 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton (-1.87%) [1] 1.2 Methanol Spot Prices - Spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends. For example, in Shandong, it increased by 15 yuan/ton (0.66%) to 2290 yuan/ton, while in Inner Mongolia, it rose by 47.5 yuan/ton (2.39%) to 2037.5 yuan/ton. In contrast, in Taicang, it decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-0.21%) to 2410 yuan/ton [1] 1.3 Basis - The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 34 yuan/ton to - 87 yuan/ton [1] 1.4 Upstream Costs - Some coal prices were stable, such as Ordos Q5500 and Yulin Q6000, while Datong Q5500 increased by 5 yuan/ton (0.97%) to 520 yuan/ton. Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] 2. Profit Information - Coal - based methanol profit decreased by 6.3 yuan/ton (-1.48%) to 419.3 yuan/ton, while natural - gas - based methanol profit remained at - 540 yuan/ton. Northwest MTO profit dropped by 128 yuan/ton (-36.28%) to 224.8 yuan/ton, and East China MTO profit increased by 87.5 yuan/ton (11.49%) to - 674.07 yuan/ton. Some downstream product profits, like MTBE and formaldehyde, remained unchanged, while acetic acid profit increased by 18.71 yuan/ton (6.68%) to 298.79 yuan/ton [1] 3. Important Information 3.1 Domestic Information - The main methanol contract MA2509 declined, opening at 2457 yuan/ton, closing at 2411 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 866,930 lots, and open interest was 666,635 lots, with volume decreasing and open interest increasing [1] 3.2 Foreign Information - In a Middle - Eastern country, only one 1 - million - ton methanol plant is shut down, and multiple plants are operating at their existing loads. The estimated loading speed at the port in mid - to - late July is expected to be higher than that in the early part of the month [1] 4. Trading Strategy - After a slight decline in MA the previous day and a rise to 2469 in the night session, considering the weak fundamental outlook and the greater impact of short - term policy expectations, it is recommended to wait and observe [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the short - term, policy expectations outweigh fundamental impacts on the urea market. Although the policy of promoting stable growth in key industries may boost the market sentiment, the supply pressure of urea remains high, and the price may face significant downward pressure if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand cannot be supplemented [1]. 3. Content Summary by Category a. Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: On July 23, compared with July 22, UR01 closed at 1779 yuan/ton (-30 yuan or -1.66%), UR05 at 1793 yuan/ton (-22 yuan or -1.21%), UR09 at 1773 yuan/ton (-44 yuan or -2.42%), and Shandong spot - related futures at 1830 yuan/ton (-10 yuan or -0.54%) [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: Shanxi's spot price dropped to 1690 yuan/ton (-30 yuan or -1.74%), while prices in Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained stable. The price of melamine in Jiangsu decreased to 5100 yuan/ton (-100 yuan or -1.92%), while most downstream prices such as compound fertilizer prices in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged [1]. b. Market Information - **Futures Contract Details**: The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1827 yuan/ton, with a high of 1827 yuan/ton, a low of 1760 yuan/ton, a close of 1773 yuan/ton, and a settlement price of 1788 yuan/ton. The position of 2509 was 180,800 lots [1]. c. Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: The daily production of urea is close to 200,000 tons, at a high level, and the enterprise inventory is about 750,000 tons, with a slight de - stocking mainly due to increased port collection [1]. - **Demand**: The top - dressing demand in July will support the price, but if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is insufficient, the urea price will face significant downward pressure [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the bulk chemical market has risen and then fallen, with the PTA market showing a narrow - range increase. PTA supply is sufficient, and the spot basis fluctuates within a limited range. The PTA processing fee is in a low - level range, and it's difficult to boost prices due to new device production expectations on the supply side and lackluster demand in the off - season. The polyester industry chain is driven by fundamentals, with weak supply - demand expectations leading to a full - line price decline. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Crude Oil**: On July 23, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $65.25 per barrel, down 0.09% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $68.51 per barrel, down 0.12% [1] - **Upstream Products**: The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan increased by 0.18% to $567.38 per ton; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB South Korea decreased by 1.47% to $705 per ton; the spot price of PX CFR China Main Port decreased by 0.16% to $842 per ton [1] - **PTA**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract decreased by 0.21% to 4,784 yuan per ton, while the settlement price increased by 0.75% to 4,808 yuan per ton. The spot price of domestic PTA increased by 0.77% to 4,812 yuan per ton [1] - **PX**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract decreased by 0.38% to 6,860 yuan per ton, and the settlement price increased by 0.55% to 6,890 yuan per ton. The domestic spot price of PX remained unchanged at 6,737 yuan per ton [1] - **PR**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract decreased by 0.17% to 5,986 yuan per ton, and the settlement price increased by 0.54% to 6,012 yuan per ton. The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market increased by 0.33% to 6,010 yuan per ton [1] - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber increased by 0.30% to 6,600 yuan per ton; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips increased by 0.68% to 5,890 yuan per ton [2] Operating Conditions - The operating rates of PX, PTA factories, polyester factories, bottle chip factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged on July 23, 2025 [1] - The sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament decreased by 21 percentage points to 84%; the sales - to - production ratio of polyester staple fiber increased by 7 percentage points; the sales - to - production ratio of polyester chips increased by 47 percentage points to 129% [1] Device Information - The 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United has been under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. The 2 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng Hainan is expected to undergo technological transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2] Important Information - International crude oil: U.S. API inventory data shows that although crude oil inventory has decreased, distillate inventory has unexpectedly increased, indicating that terminal demand has not recovered. Risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and oil prices are generally weak [2] - PX: Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, with strong bottom support. Whether PX benefits can continue to rise depends on more unexpected factors. The current dull fundamentals have been changed by unexpected situations in reforming devices, but due to the off - season of polyester consumption, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operations after the significant decline in PTA processing fees [2] - PTA: In the third quarter, new PTA devices are still to be put into production, which is misaligned with PX in terms of time. PTA supply is sufficient, and the main suppliers continue to sell goods. The PTA processing fee is in a low - level range, and it's difficult to boost prices due to new device production expectations on the supply side and lackluster demand in the off - season [2] Trading Strategy - It is difficult for PTA to break through the upper pressure level. The TA2509 contract closed at 4,784 yuan per ton (down 0.25%), with an intraday trading volume of 1.17 million lots; the PX price has increased, and the PX2509 contract closed at 6,860 yuan per ton (up 0.12%), with an intraday trading volume of 228,000 lots; PR follows the cost trend, and the 2509 contract closed at 5,986 yuan per ton (up 0.10%), with an intraday trading volume of 70,200 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View There is no clear core view presented in the provided content. The report mainly lists various commodity prices, price changes, and industry operating rates. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Commodity Prices and Changes - The current price of crude oil on July 24, 2025, is $567.38 per ton, up 0.18% from the previous day's $566.38 [1] - The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia on July 23, 2025, is $821.00 per ton, with no change from the previous day [1] - The factory - ex price of ethylene glycol in East China on July 24, 2025, is $640.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value, but up from the previous price of $575.50 [1] - The settlement price of the main contract of a certain commodity on July 23, 2025, is $444.00 per ton, up 0.23% from the previous day [1] Industry Operating Rates - The operating rate of PTA factories on July 23, 2025, is 80.1%, unchanged from the previous value [1] - The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang PTA industry on July 23, 2025, is 58.02%, unchanged from the previous value [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report's industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of natural rubber may fluctuate strongly due to slight inventory reduction and rising tire demand. The price of synthetic rubber may also fluctuate strongly supported by the improvement of the macro - atmosphere and rising raw material costs. Attention should be paid to the support and pressure levels of natural rubber and synthetic rubber [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Natural Rubber Futures Active Contract - On July 22, 2025, the closing price was 15060, up 165 from the previous day; the trading volume was 567016 hands, an increase of 128226 hands; the open interest was 216311 hands, a decrease of 1817 hands; the registered warrant volume remained unchanged at 186620 [1]. Natural Rubber Basis - The natural rubber basis on July 22, 2025, was - 85, a decrease of 65 from the previous day. The daily price difference between Tianjin - Shanghai, Shandong - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF remained unchanged, while the Yunnan - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily price difference increased by 100 [1]. Natural Rubber Monthly Spread - On July 22, 2025, the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of natural rubber was - 50, a decrease of 25; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was - 5, an increase of 5; the spread between the first - continuous and the third - continuous contract was - 15, a decrease of 15 [1]. Synthetic Rubber Futures Active Contract - On July 22, 2025, the closing price was 12100, up 105 from the previous day; the trading volume was 121387 hands, an increase of 34371 hands; the open interest was 49351 hands, an increase of 34358 hands; the registered warrant volume was 9850, an increase of 150 [1]. Synthetic Rubber Basis - The synthetic rubber basis on July 22, 2025, was - 341.67, a decrease of 88.34 from the previous day. The price difference between North China - East China and South China - East China of butadiene rubber decreased by 25 [1]. Synthetic Rubber Monthly Spread - On July 22, 2025, the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of synthetic rubber was 15, a decrease of 10; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract remained unchanged at 25; the spread between the first - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 40, an increase of 20 [1]. Supply Side - In the coming days, the weather in major natural rubber producing areas such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia is stable with less precipitation, while there is precipitation in domestic producing areas. As of July 17, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber increased by 0.47% to 63.22%, and that of styrene - butadiene rubber increased by 1.6% to 78.79%. The daily after - tax gross profit of China's styrene - butadiene rubber emulsion polymerization process increased by 4.25 yuan/ton, and that of SBS solution coagulation process increased by 70.8 yuan/ton. The after - tax gross profit of butadiene rubber solution polymerization process remained unchanged [1]. Inventory Side - As of July 18, 2025, the weekly warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 0.67 thousand tons to 212.92 thousand tons; the weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.12 million tons to 11.37 million tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 0.07 million tons. As of July 17, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber decreased by 123 tons to 12640 tons [1]. Cost Side - The global natural rubber supply has entered the production - increasing period. As of July 22, 2025, the glue purchase price in Thailand increased by 0.3 baht/kg, and that in Hainan increased by 100 yuan/ton. For synthetic rubber, the short - term contradiction of crude oil is not prominent, the oil price volatility returns to shock, the price of upstream raw material butadiene has increased, and the weekly inventory of butadiene ports decreased by 3.6 thousand tons to 20 thousand tons [1]. Demand Side - As of July 17, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all - steel tires in Shandong increased by 0.54% to 65.08%, and that of semi - steel tires in China increased by 3.07% to 75.62%. In June 2025, the retail volume of the national automobile market, passenger car sales, and truck sales all increased compared with the previous month, and the tire matching demand increased [1].

Report Title - Natural and Synthetic Rubber Daily Review 20250723: Natural Rubber Fluctuates Strongly, Synthetic Rubber Fluctuates Strongly [2] Report Author - Wang Wenhu (F03087656, Z0019472), Contact Number: 010 - 82293558 [3] Report Core View - Natural rubber may see prices fluctuate strongly due to slight inventory reduction and rising tire demand, while synthetic rubber may also fluctuate strongly supported by improved macro - atmosphere and rising raw material costs. Attention should be paid to the support and pressure levels of natural rubber at 13800 - 14000 and 15400 - 15600 respectively, and those of synthetic rubber at 11100 - 11400 and 12400 - 12600 respectively [1] Market Data Summary Natural Rubber Futures Active Contract - On July 22, 2025, the closing price was 15060, up 165 from the previous day; the trading volume was 567016 lots, an increase of 128226 lots; the open interest was 216311 lots, a decrease of 1817 lots; the registered warrant volume remained unchanged at 186620; the natural rubber basis was - 85, down 65 from the previous day [1] Synthetic Rubber Futures Active Contract - On July 22, 2025, the closing price was 12100, up 105 from the previous day; the trading volume was 121387 lots, an increase of 34371 lots; the open interest was 49351 lots, an increase of 34358 lots; the registered warrant volume was 9850, up 150 from the previous day; the synthetic rubber basis was - 341.67, down 88.34 from the previous day [1] Supply - side Situation - In the future, weather in major natural rubber producing areas such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia will be stable with less precipitation, while there will be rainfall in domestic producing areas including Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, and Yunnan. As of July 17, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 63.22%, up 0.47% from the previous week, and that of styrene - butadiene rubber was 78.79%, up 1.6% from the previous week [1] Inventory Situation - As of July 18, 2025, the weekly warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 212.92 thousand tons, a decrease of 0.67 thousand tons from the previous week; the weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 11.37 million tons, a decrease of 0.12 million tons; the bonded area inventory was 0.197 million tons, a decrease of 0.07 million tons. As of July 17, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 12640 tons, a decrease of 123 tons from the previous week [1] Cost - side Situation - Global natural rubber supply has entered an increasing period, with full tapping in domestic and foreign major producing areas. As of July 22, 2025, the glue purchase price in the Hat Yai market of Songkhla Province, Thailand was 54.8 Thai baht/kg, up 0.3 Thai baht/kg from the previous day, and the daily purchase price of natural rubber glue in the Hainan market was 15250 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. For synthetic rubber, short - term contradictions in crude oil are not prominent, and oil price volatility has returned to a range - bound pattern. The upstream raw material butadiene price has increased [1] Demand - side Situation - As of July 17, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 65.08%, up 0.54% from the previous week, and the weekly operating load rate of semi - steel tires in China was 75.62%, up 3.07% from the previous week. According to the Passenger Car Association, from June 1 - 30, the retail sales of the national automobile market were 2.904 million vehicles, an increase of 217700 vehicles from the previous month; the sales of passenger cars were 2.536 million vehicles, an increase of 184300 vehicles; the sales of trucks in China were 316000 vehicles, an increase of 24500 vehicles from the previous month [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The passage suggests that despite the passing of the US stable - coin related bill and the increasing probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut, the rising optimism driven by domestic anti - involution policies may ease, and with the expected resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar and Congo - Kinshasa, along with the continuous increase in the operating rate of domestic refined tin production capacity, the upward space for Shanghai tin prices may be limited. It advises investors to hold existing long positions cautiously or take profits at high levels, and pay attention to specific support and resistance levels for Shanghai tin and London tin [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side - Myanmar's Wa State decided on July 11 that the first batch of 40 - 50 mines would resume production after paying fees, with an initial incremental output of no more than 10,000 metal tons and a transmission period of 2 - 3 months. This may lead to a month - on - month decrease (increase) in domestic tin ore production (import) in July. Additionally, the domestic tin concentrate processing fee is oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation for domestic tin ore [3]. - China's recycled tin production in July increased month - on - month [3][22][24]. - The operating rates of refined tin production capacity in Jiangxi and China (Yunnan) increased (remained flat) compared to last week. China's refined tin production (inventory) in July increased (decreased) month - on - month [3][26][28]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Finance's mining license approval is affected by a corruption investigation and may reduce medium - and long - term export quotas, causing a possible month - on - month decrease in July exports. China's refined tin imports (exports) in July may increase (decrease) month - on - month [3][32]. Demand Side - China's tin solder production capacity utilization rate (inventory) in July decreased (increased) month - on - month [3]. - China's solder strip imports (exports) in July may increase month - on - month [3][37][39]. - China's tinplate production (imports, exports) in July may increase (decrease, decrease) month - on - month [3][41][43]. Investment Strategy - Due to the factors mentioned above, the upward space for Shanghai tin prices may be limited. Investors are advised to hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high levels. They should pay attention to the support levels around 248,000 - 258,000 and the resistance levels around 274,000 - 283,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support levels around 30,000 - 32,000 and the resistance levels around 34,000 - 36,000 for London tin [3]. Basis and Spread Analysis - The Shanghai tin basis is negative and at a relatively low level, while the month - to - month spread is positive and basically within a reasonable range. This is due to the expected resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar and Congo - Kinshasa, the increasing weekly operating capacity and social inventory of domestic refined tin, and the suppression of downstream demand during the traditional domestic consumption off - season. Investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [4][6]. - The LME tin (0 - 3) contract spread is positive and basically within a reasonable range, and the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive and also within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is below the 50% quantile of the past five years. Due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September/December, the oscillating decline in the LME refined tin inventory, and Trump's tariff hikes on multiple countries, investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities regarding the LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads [8][10]. Inventory Situation - The inventory of refined tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased compared to last week; China's tin ingot social inventory increased compared to last week; and the LME refined tin inventory decreased compared to last week [13]. Tin Ore Processing Fee - The domestic tin ore daily processing fee has decreased, and the domestic tin concentrate daily processing fee is oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation for domestic tin ore [15][17]. Tin Mine Production and Import - Domestic tin mine production (imports) in July decreased (increased) month - on - month. This is affected by the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar and Congo - Kinshasa, as well as Thailand's suspension of transit exports of Burmese tin ore to China [19][21]. Lead - Acid Battery - As tin is an important additive in lead - acid batteries, as of July 17, China's lead - acid battery production capacity utilization rate increased compared to last week [47].

有色金属周报(电解铜) 美日达成贸易协议关注中美下周谈判， 关注国内"反内卷"政策后续执行情况 2025年7月23日 宏源期货研究所 王文虎 （F03087656，Z0019472） 有色金属周报(电解铜) 国内社会库存初现下降COMEX库存仍在累积， 传统消费淡季来临下游需求疲软 电解铜 宏观：美国参议院通过稳定币相关法案且将准许养老基金等投资黄金、数字货币等资产；进口关税推升商品价格致美国6 月消费端通胀CPI年率有所升高，但因美国6月生产端通胀PPI年率为2.3%低于预期和前值，叠加鲍威尔提前离职预期增大美联 储降息预期，使美联储9/12月降息概率有所升高。 上游：山西运城垣曲县五龙实业旗下洛家河铜矿发生炮烟中毒事故致三人死亡，五矿资源MMG旗下Las Bambas和Hudbay 旗下Constancia因非正规矿工暂停封路抗议至7月18日，加拿大Manitoba 北部发生野火使Hudbay Minerals 已经暂停Snow Lake运营和勘探，紫金矿业旗下卡莫阿-卡库拉铜矿西侧已于6月初复产但东侧排水或持续至9月（25年计划矿产铜由52-58降 至37-42万吨），铜陵有色旗下位于厄瓜多尔的米拉多铜 ...