Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term downward trend for ethylene glycol (MEG), with a recommended strategy of short - selling at high prices [5]. Core Viewpoints - This week, MEG prices increased due to the overall upward movement of commodities, driven by policy factors such as "anti - involution" and "capacity optimization." However, the fundamentals remained unchanged, with downstream polyester maintaining the current production cut plan. Next week, MEG is expected to decline, with an operating range of 4300 - 4500 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Views - **Price Movement Reason**: This week, MEG futures and spot prices rose with the overall commodity market, but the fundamentals were stable, and downstream polyester continued its production cut plan [5]. - **Next - Week Forecast**: Cost - wise, the results of US trade negotiations are a key concern, leading to weak crude oil price increases. Supply will increase as domestic and Saudi Arabian devices restart. Demand will remain stable as polyester maintains the current production level and weaving operations decline. Port inventory is expected to increase slightly. Overall, MEG is expected to decline, with an operating range of 4300 - 4500 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: Weekly trading volume was 1.18 million lots, and open interest was 280,400 lots (+9,300 lots). From July 21st to July 28th, the closing price of the MEG main contract increased by 26 yuan/ton (0.59%), and the settlement price increased by 65 yuan/ton (1.48%) [9][11]. - **Spot Market**: The average basis this week was 57.40 yuan/ton, lower than last week's 68.80 yuan/ton. The domestic and international MEG prices remained inverted, with a spread of 70 - 110 US dollars/ton [12]. 3. MEG Device, Inventory, and Production Profit - **Device Operation**: The overall MEG operating rate was 62.40% from July 22nd to July 28th, up from 61.40% in the previous period. Oil - based, coal - based, and methanol - based operating rates were 63.94%, 60.07%, and 62.40% respectively. There were multiple device overhauls and restarts during the week [16][19]. - **Production Profit**: This week, the profit of coal - based MEG continued to rise slightly. The profits of MTO, coal - based, and ethylene - based production routes were - 1637.13 yuan/ton, 701.23 yuan/ton, and - 104.05 US dollars/ton respectively, compared with - 1657.42 yuan/ton, 649.11 yuan/ton, and - 115.65 US dollars/ton in the previous period [29][31]. - **Inventory**: As of July 24th, MEG port inventory was 420,400 tons, a decrease of 30,800 tons from the previous period. The decline in both hidden and visible inventories contributed to MEG's high ranking in the industry chain's price increase [35]. 4. Fundamental Analysis - **Cost**: The market is concerned about US tariff policies. The prices of raw materials such as crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, methanol, and thermal coal have an impact on MEG [42][43]. - **Demand**: Polyester factories did not further cut production. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 86.87%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 58.26%. The prices of polyester products were mixed, with some products declining and others rising. The textile market was in a slow season, with weak demand and low production enthusiasm among factories [46][53]. - **Market Sentiment**: The positive commodity sentiment boosted the industry's confidence, and some downstream buyers actively purchased, resulting in a significant increase in polyester filament sales on Tuesday. However, overall, downstream buying intention was low, and the inventory of polyester factories continued to rise [55][57].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - **Weekly Summary**: PX had a staged breakthrough due to improved macro - atmosphere and unexpected device situations. PTA also had a staged breakthrough as market sentiment was released, with the market trading on the logic of eliminating backward production capacity [7]. - **Future Forecast**: Crude oil price increase is lackluster due to the market's cautious attitude towards US trade negotiations. PX may have a supply reduction with the potential shutdown of Zhejiang Petrochemical's 2 million - ton PX device. PTA has low processing fees and production losses but no new official reduction or maintenance plans. Polyester device maintenance plans are limited, and the weaving market remains weak. Overall, PX is expected to adjust in the range of 6,750 - 6,950 yuan/ton, and PTA in the range of 4,650 - 4,900 yuan/ton. The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Situation PX - **Futures**: The PX futures contract rebounded to around 7,000. On July 25, the closing price was 7,062 yuan/ton, up 252 yuan/ton or 3.70% from July 18. The settlement price on July 25 was 7,022 yuan/ton, up 214 yuan/ton or 3.14% from July 18 [13][15]. - **Spot**: The market negotiation and trading atmosphere were average, more active in the second half of the week. From July 21 - 25, the average basis of the main contract was - 173 yuan/ton, the average domestic spot price of PX was 6,751.8 yuan/ton, up 47.2 yuan/ton or 0.70% from the previous period [16][18]. PTA - **Futures**: The price center rose step - by - step. On July 25, the closing price of the main contract was 4,936 yuan/ton, up 192 yuan/ton or 4.02% from July 18. The settlement price on July 25 was 4,902 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton or 3.19% from July 18 [20][22]. - **Spot**: The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average. From July 21 - 25, the average basis of the main contract was - 4.50 yuan/ton. The average weekly arrival price of PTA in the Chinese market was 614.8 US dollars/ton, up 11.2 US dollars/ton or 1.85% from the previous period. The average spot price in the East China market was 4,819 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan/ton or 1.71% from the previous period [23][25]. 2. Device Operation Situation PX Devices - **Domestic**: Many domestic PX enterprises had different load - adjustment situations, such as Ningbo Daxie running at 70% load, and some devices of Sheng虹 Refining and Chemical reducing their loads [30]. - **Asia**: Asian PX devices in different regions also had various operation states, including startups, shutdowns, and load adjustments [32][33]. PTA Devices - Some PTA devices were under maintenance, like the 1.2 - million - ton device of Ningbo Taihua and the 2 - million - ton device of Hainan Yisheng. There were no new PTA device maintenance or restart plans this week, and the weekly operation rate remained stable [37][38]. 3. Fundamental Analysis Cost - **Crude Oil**: Without significant news, oil prices were in a stalemate. WTI crude oil's futures settlement price on July 25 was 65.16 US dollars/barrel, down 0.89 US dollars/barrel from July 18, and Brent crude oil's was 67.66 US dollars/barrel, down 1.62 US dollars/barrel from July 18 [43][45]. - **Naphtha**: The supply was abundant due to increased exports from the Middle East and Europe to Asia, and demand decreased as LPG replaced it in cracking devices. The weekly average price of CFR Japan was 572.65 US dollars/ton, and the weekly average production profit was 23.52 US dollars/ton [50][52]. - **PX Spot**: PX continued to reduce inventory, and prices rose steadily. The weekly average price of CFR China Main Port was 851.20 US dollars/ton, up 1.50% from the previous period; the weekly average price of FOB South Korea was 826.80 US dollars/ton, up 1.55% from the previous period [55]. Supply - **PX Processing Margin**: The profit was good, with the PXN weekly average at 280.82 yuan/ton, up 9.38% from the previous period, and the PX - MX weekly average at 111.90 US dollars/ton [56][58]. - **PTA Processing Fee**: The processing fee was at a low level due to raw material cost pressure from PX and poor demand. The average spot processing fee from July 21 - 25 was 228.17 yuan/ton [59][61]. - **Inventory**: As of July 25, PTA social inventory was 4.502 million tons, up 60,000 tons from the previous week. The inventory of PTA factories increased by 0.13 days, and that of polyester factories decreased by 0.20 days [65][67]. Demand - **Polyester**: The prices of polyester products fluctuated slightly, with different weekly average price changes. The average weekly production and sales of polyester were estimated at 70%. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 86.87%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 58.26% [70][79]. - **Weaving**: The off - season market continued, with weak demand in the grey fabric market. Most weaving factories faced losses, and new orders were insufficient [85][87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate have limited improvement in the weak reality. The downstream and end - users have limited ability to accept high prices, but there are frequent disturbances on the supply side, and the influence of funds and sentiment remains significant. It is expected that lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. The recommended strategy is to hold put options, with an expected operating range of 64,000 - 81,000 [4][84] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Last week, lithium carbonate fluctuated upward, with a weekly increase of 15.82%. The trading volume reached 6.27 million lots (+1.98 million), and the open interest reached 491,100 lots (+113,800). The basis was at a discount of 7,620 yuan/ton [5][8] 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Lithium Ore - In June, China's lithium spodumene production was 6,450 tons of LCE, a month - on - month increase of 6.6%; lithium mica production was 16,800 tons of LCE, a month - on - month increase of 4.3%. Lithium concentrate imports decreased to 427,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%. In April, the amount of lithium spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China decreased to 58,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 49.3% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% [12][16][21] 3.2.2 Lithium Battery Recycling - In June, the recycling of waste lithium batteries was 18,366 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.8% [26] 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate - Last week, lithium carbonate production was 18,630 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%. In June, lithium carbonate imports decreased to 17,698 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. In June, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China were 10,226 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.2% [31][33] 3.2.4 Lithium Hydroxide - In June, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 35%, and the production was 24,450 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 25.8%. Exports were 6,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 56.1% [39] 3.3 Downstream Demand 3.3.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, lithium iron phosphate production was 77,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%. In June, the operating rate of iron phosphate was 56%, and the production was 229,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 56% [42] 3.3.2 Ternary Materials - Last week, ternary materials production was 15,502 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.2%. In June, imports and exports increased [47] 3.3.3 Ternary Precursors - In June, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 36%, and the production was 68,360 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 16.5%. Exports decreased in June [50] 3.3.4 Manganese Acid Lithium and Cobalt Acid Lithium - In June, the operating rate of manganese acid lithium was 33%, and the production was 11,536 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9% and a year - on - year increase of 19%. The operating rate of cobalt acid lithium was 57%, and the production was 9,730 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0% and a year - on - year increase of 20.4% [51] 3.3.5 Electrolyte - In June, electrolyte production was 159,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 45.6%. Exports of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased in June [54] 3.4 Terminal Demand 3.4.1 Power Batteries - In June, power battery production was 129.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.6% and a year - on - year increase of 52.9%. The installed capacity was 58.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 1.9% and a year - on - year increase of 36.0% [60] 3.4.2 New Energy Vehicles - In June, new energy vehicle production was 1.268 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 26.4%. Sales were 1.329 million units, a month - on - month increase of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 26.7% [63] 3.4.3 Energy Storage - In June, energy storage battery production was 41.65 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 13.9% and a year - on - year increase of 42.7%. In May, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 5.15 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 8.8% and a year - on - year increase of 18.7%; the winning bid capacity scale was 16.66 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 7.5% and a year - on - year increase of 16.3% [68] 3.4.4 Consumer Electronics - In June, China's smartphone production was 108.27 million units, a month - on - month increase of 19.0% and a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The production of micro - electronic computers was 31.59 million units, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% and a year - on - year increase of 6.6% [71] 3.5 Cost - Lithium ore prices rebounded. The price of 6% lithium spodumene concentrate increased by $75/ton, and the price of lithium mica increased by 460 yuan/ton [74] 3.6 Inventory - Total inventory decreased by 550 tons. Structurally, smelters' inventory decreased by 2,654 tons, downstream inventory increased by 1,544 tons, and other inventory increased by 1,660 tons. Last week, lithium iron phosphate inventory decreased by 168 tons, and ternary materials inventory increased by 229 tons [80][81] 3.7 Market Outlook - The recommended strategy is to hold put options, with an expected operating range of 64,000 - 81,000. On the resource side, there are frequent disturbances in domestic lithium mica supply, lithium spodumene production increases, and lithium ore imports decrease. On the supply side, last week's lithium carbonate production decreased slightly but remained at a high level, imported lithium salt volume decreased, Chile's lithium salt exports were low, and the recycling end continued to decline. On the demand side, the growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down. The production schedules of cathode and cell factories were stable. Last week, lithium iron phosphate inventory decreased and ternary materials inventory increased; energy storage battery production scheduling increased, and the winning bid scale of energy storage increased. On the cost side, the prices of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica rebounded significantly. In terms of inventory, overall inventory decreased, smelters' inventory decreased, and downstream and other inventory increased. Overall, the weak reality of lithium carbonate fundamentals has limited improvement, the downstream and end - users have limited ability to accept high prices, but there are frequent supply - side disturbances, and the influence of funds and sentiment remains significant, so lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate widely [84]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The lead market currently has no prominent contradictions, and the lead price is expected to maintain a range - bound consolidation. The supply side shows an incremental trend with the expected resumption of production of primary lead and the slow recovery of recycled lead production. The market still has expectations for the downstream consumption peak season. As the lead price drops, the downstream hedging sentiment eases, and procurement may improve. The short - term lead price is expected to range between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Movement**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.30% to 16,750 yuan/ton, the closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract rose by 0.80% to 16,955 yuan/ton, and the London lead closing price (electronic disk) increased by 0.45% to 2,020.5 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Basis**: Relevant data shows the historical basis situation from 2022 - 2025, but no specific analysis of the current basis situation is provided [12]. 2. Supply - Side Analysis - **Raw Material - Lead Concentrate**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 500 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee decreased by 5 US dollars/dry ton to - 60 US dollars/dry ton. The tight ore situation remains unchanged, and the TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. As of July 18, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was 74.6 yuan/ton [25]. - **Primary Lead**: The primary lead operating rate decreased to 63.37% month - on - month. Some smelters in Henan are under regular maintenance, and a smelter in North China has resumed production but not at full capacity. Some smelters in Central and East China have future maintenance plans. The weekly output of deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises in some regions has changed, with the total output increasing from 45,215 tons in the week of July 18 to 48,375 tons this week [26][33]. - **Recycled Lead**: The average price of waste batteries remained flat at 10,250 yuan/ton as of July 25. The scrap peak season has not started, and the arrival of waste batteries is still tight. The losses of recycled lead smelters fluctuated slightly. As of July 28, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale recycled lead enterprises was - 481 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale enterprises was - 706 yuan/ton. The raw material and finished product inventories of recycled lead decreased. The operating rate of recycled lead enterprises increased by 2.8 percentage points to 40.7%, and the weekly output recovered to 4.24 tons as of last Friday [40][46][49][50]. 3. Demand - Side Analysis - **Lead - Acid Battery**: The operating rate of lead - acid batteries increased by 0.9 percentage points to 71.86%. As the traditional peak season approaches, the production enthusiasm of electric bicycles has improved, with some enterprises' operating rates reaching about 90%. The operating rate of automotive batteries is around 70 - 80% due to weak domestic terminals and the impact of tariffs on some export orders [56]. 4. Import and Export Analysis - As of July 18, the export loss of refined lead was about 2,300 yuan/ton. As of July 25, the import profit was - 834.57 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [66]. 5. Inventory Analysis - **Domestic Social Inventory**: As of July 24, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 7.14 tons, showing an increase. Downstream procurement is mainly from primary lead smelters, and the inventory of mainstream smelters has decreased, but social inventory has increased [76]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of July 25, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 6.33 tons, showing a month - on - month increase, and the LME inventory was 26.63 tons, showing a slight decrease [79]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the production, export, import, consumption, and inventory data of primary lead and recycled lead from April 2024 to June 2025 [80].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The previous trading day saw UR decline, closing at 1738. After the coking coal limit - down on Monday, the bullish sentiment from anti - involution may be adjusted, leading to a compensatory decline in urea. Fundamentally, urea supply pressure remains high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons at a high level. Enterprise inventories continue to decline slightly, mainly due to increased port collection. Upstream enterprise inventories are still around 750,000 tons. Domestically, agricultural demand may gradually enter the off - season. If export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. In the short term, policy expectations may adjust repeatedly, so it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Group 3: Directory Summary Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01: On July 28, it was 1758 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan or 2.71% from July 25 [1]. - UR05: On July 28, it was 1782 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or 2.20% from July 25 [1]. - UR09: On July 28, it was 1738 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan or 3.61% from July 25 [1]. Spot Prices - Shandong: On July 28, it was 1780 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.56% from July 25 [1]. - Shanxi: On July 28, it was 1660 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 1.78% from July 25 [1]. - Henan: On July 28, it was 1790 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 1.10% from July 25 [1]. - Hebei: On July 28, it was 1760 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 1.12% from July 25 [1]. - Northeast: On July 28, it was 1760 yuan/ton, unchanged from July 25 [1]. - Jiangsu: On July 28, it was 1800 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.55% from July 25 [1]. Basis and Spreads - Basis (Shandong spot - UR): On July 28, it was - 2 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from July 25 [1]. - Spread (01 - 05): On July 28, it was - 24 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan from July 25 [1]. Upstream Costs - Anthracite price in Henan: On July 28, it was 1000 yuan/ton, unchanged from July 25 [1]. - Anthracite price in Shanxi: On July 28, it was 900 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan or 9.76% from July 25 [1]. Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Shandong: On July 28, it was 2950 yuan/ton, unchanged from July 25 [1]. - Compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Henan: On July 28, it was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged from July 25 [1]. - Melamine price in Shandong: On July 28, it was 5007 yuan/ton, unchanged from July 25 [1]. - Melamine price in Jiangsu: On July 28, it was 5100 yuan/ton, unchanged from July 25 [1]. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1750 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1764 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1728 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1738 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1745 yuan/ton. The position volume of 2509 was 153,124 lots [1].

Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report (Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Aluminum Alloys)" dated July 29, 2025 [1] Core Viewpoints - The optimistic expectations of China's anti-involution policy are initially alleviated, and the reality of loose supply and demand suppresses domestic aluminum prices. Traditional consumption off - season inventory accumulation expectations also have a negative impact on prices [1] Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Alumina Supply - Side Situation - Domestic: The first - phase 500,000 - ton high - sulfur bauxite desulfurization project in Qingzhen started producing 440,000 tons/year of aluminum concentrate in June, which may increase domestic bauxite production and import in July. Multiple domestic alumina capacity expansion and construction projects are in progress, which may increase China's alumina production in July. The average daily full production cost of Chinese alumina is about 2,850 yuan/ton [3] - Overseas: Nanshan Aluminum's Indonesian Bintan Alumina Phase III project and SPIC's Guinea Aluminum Project Phase II may increase overseas alumina production in July [3] Investment Strategy - Due to the increase in the price of imported Guinea bauxite pushing up production costs, but the easing of optimistic expectations of the anti - involution policy and the loose supply - demand expectation, the alumina price may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on the support level around 3,000 - 3,200 and the pressure level around 3,500 - 3,800 [3] Basis and Month - Spread - The alumina basis is negative and at a low level, and the month - spread is positive and basically at a low level. It is recommended that investors go long on the alumina basis at low levels [12] Inventory - The inventory of alumina in Chinese ports and on the SHFE has increased compared with last week [13][15] Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Side Situation - Domestic: Multiple domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity transfer and new construction projects may increase domestic electrolytic aluminum production in July. The theoretical weighted average full cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,650 yuan/ton [4][58] - Import: Multiple overseas factors may increase domestic electrolytic aluminum imports in July [4][61] Investment Strategy - Although the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is increasing, due to the easing of optimistic expectations of the anti - involution policy and the suppression of downstream demand in the traditional consumption off - season, the Shanghai aluminum price may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on the support level around 20,000 - 20,300 and the pressure level around 21,000 - 21,500 for Shanghai aluminum, and the support level around 2,300 - 2,500 and the pressure level around 2,700 - 2,800 for LME aluminum [5] Basis and Month - Spread - The Shanghai aluminum basis and month - spread are positive and within a reasonable range. It is recommended that investors wait and see [37] - The LME aluminum (0 - 3) month - spread is positive and at a relatively high level, and the (3 - 15) month - spread is negative. It is recommended that investors wait and see for LME aluminum month - spread arbitrage opportunities [40] Inventory - The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum has increased compared with last week. The inventory in the bonded area has decreased, and the inventory in LME and COMEX has changed differently [42][44] Aluminum Alloys Supply - Side Situation - Scrap aluminum: The production and import of Chinese scrap aluminum in July may increase due to the positive and rising daily spread between refined and scrap aluminum [64][66] - Primary aluminum alloy: The daily full production cost of Chinese primary aluminum alloy is 20,550 yuan/ton, and the capacity utilization rate remains flat compared with last week [69] - Recycled aluminum alloy: The daily full production cost of Chinese recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 19,900 yuan/ton with negative profit, and the capacity utilization rate has decreased compared with last week [77] Investment Strategy - Although the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is increasing, the production of domestic recycled aluminum alloy is still in the red. Due to the easing of optimistic expectations of the anti - involution policy, the price of cast aluminum alloy may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors wait and see, focusing on the support level around 19,800 - 19,900 and the pressure level around 20,200 - 20,300 [7] Inventory - The social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloys has increased compared with last week. The raw material and finished - product inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises has decreased [87][90] Downstream Processing Enterprises - The weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese aluminum downstream leading processing enterprises has decreased compared with last week due to the intersection of the easing of Sino - US mutual tariffs and the traditional consumption off - season [93][95]

| | | | 甲醇日评20250729: 焦煤回落,甲醇补跌 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/7/28 | 2025/7/25 | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对目) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2492.00 | 2587.00 | -95.00 | -3.67% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2429.00 | 2504.00 | -75.00 | -3.00% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2404.00 | 2519.00 | -115.00 | -4.57% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2400.00 | 2487.50 | -87.50 | -3.52% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2325.00 | 2340.00 | -15.00 | -0.64% | | 期现价格 | | 厂东 | 元/吨 | 2392.50 | 2460.00 | - ...

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250729: "Anti-Involution" Sentiment Declines, Volatility Increases [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On July 28, the main nickel contract fluctuated downward. The pure nickel fundamentals are loose, but the macro - atmosphere dominates with large sentiment changes. The nickel price is expected to oscillate at a high level. Short - term high - selling and short - positions are recommended, waiting for the "anti - involution" sentiment to subside (Viewpoint Score: -1) [2] - On July 28, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated downward. The current macro - sentiment has a large influence. Although the fundamentals are loose, it takes time for the price to return to the fundamentals. The price is expected to follow macro - fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see (Viewpoint Score: 0) [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market Price and Volume - Shanghai nickel futures: On July 28, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts decreased compared to previous days. The trading volume of the active contract was 297,904 hands (+132,194), and the open interest was 96,124 hands (-2,883) [2] - LME nickel: On July 28, the closing prices of the 3 - month nickel in the electronic and physical trading sessions decreased. The trading volume was 7,318 hands (-3,337) [2] Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory increased, LME nickel inventory increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded - area inventory remained flat [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: Nickel ore prices were flat, nickel ore arrivals increased last week, and port inventory decreased. Nickel - iron mills' losses narrowed, domestic and Indonesian nickel - iron production decreased in June, and nickel - iron inventory decreased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production decreased in July, and export profits expanded [2] - Demand: Ternary material production increased, stainless - steel mills' production plans decreased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable [2] Stainless - Steel Market Price and Volume - On July 28, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated downward. The trading volume was 349,991 hands (+149,518), and the open interest was 112,413 hands (-12,340). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium expanded [2] Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange stainless - steel inventory decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory last week was 638,500 tons (-17,800) [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: Stainless - steel production decreased in June [2] - Demand: Terminal demand was weak [2] Cost - High - nickel pig iron prices increased, and high - carbon ferrochrome prices remained stable [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere of bulk chemicals has weakened, and the PTA market has risen and then fallen. The downstream procurement intention is not high. The supply of PTA is sufficient, and it will move in a volatile manner with cost as the dominant factor [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market has a relatively abundant supply, and the downstream terminal purchases according to rigid demand, with the market negotiation atmosphere improving [2]. - After the short - term emotional release, PX, PTA, and PR are expected to operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - On July 28, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $66.71 per barrel, up 2.38% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $70.04 per barrel, up 2.34% [1]. - The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan was $578.50 per ton, down 0.34%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB South Korea was $708.00 per ton, down 1.73% [1]. - The spot price of PX CFR China Main Port was $851.00 per ton, down 2.52%; the CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4812 yuan per ton, down 2.51% [1]. - The CCFEI price index of PTA outer - market was $651.00 per ton on July 25, up 1.88%; the CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 6890 yuan per ton on July 28, down 2.44% [1]. - The CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 6000 yuan per ton on July 28, down 2.12%; the market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 6010 yuan per ton, down 1.15% [1]. Production and Sales Information - On July 28, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 77.29%, unchanged; the PTA factory load rate was 80.59%, unchanged [1]. - The polyester factory load rate was 86.66%, down 0.35%; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 71.93%, unchanged [1]. - The polyester filament sales rate was 29.00%, unchanged; the polyester staple fiber sales rate was 48.00%, down 30.00%; the polyester chip sales rate was 83.00%, down 47.00% [1]. Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 - million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days; Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2]. Market News - The OPEC+ maintains the production - increase plan, and the impact of the production increase is gradually emerging. Although the peak demand season and the improvement of the macro - sentiment provide support, the oil price shows signs of weakness [2]. - PTA will have new device launches in the third quarter, which is mismatched with PX in time. The current PX inventory is at a historical low, with relatively strong bottom support [2]. - It is currently the off - season for polyester consumption. After the significant decline in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operating rates [2]. - The domestic PX device operates stably, the new production capacity on the demand side has not produced stably, and the game atmosphere in the market has heated up [2]. - The polyester factory actually carried out maintenance in July, and the operating rate decreased significantly compared with June. The macro - impact on the polyester industry chain has weakened, and it has returned to fundamental - driven, with the supply - demand expectation weakening and prices falling across the board [2].

| | | 尿素早评20250729: 焦煤回落，尿素补跌 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 变化值 变化值 单位 7月28日 7月25日 | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | UR01 | 元/吨 | 1758.00 | 1807.00 | -49.00 | -2.71% | | 房素期货价格 | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1782.00 | 1822.00 | -40.00 | -2.20% | | | (收盘价) | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1738.00 | 1803.00 | -65.00 | -3.61% | | 期现价格 | | 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1780.00 1660.00 | 1790.00 1690.00 | -10.00 -30.00 | -0.56% -1.78% | | | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1790.00 | 1810.00 | -20.00 | -1.10% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | ...