1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The silicon market currently maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, and with the concentrated cancellation of futures warehouse receipts this month, there is still pressure on the upside of silicon prices. Attention should be paid to the subsequent registration of new warehouse receipts and the actual start - up of silicon enterprises [1] - For polysilicon, the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is limited, and there is significant pressure for the spot price to continue to rise, which restricts the upside space of the futures market. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the polysilicon platform and the evolution of the macro - sentiment [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,800 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 1.27% to 8,960 yuan/ton [1] - **Production and Supply**: From November 14 - 20, the weekly output of sample silicon enterprises in Sichuan was 4,690 tons, with a weekly start - up rate of 40%. Excluding large factories, the start - up rate of the remaining silicon enterprises was around 12%. Sichuan will enter the dry season at the end of November, and the start - up rate will further decline. The weekly output of sample silicon factories in Xinjiang was 41,090 tons, with a weekly start - up rate of 85%, remaining stable compared to last week [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt an interval operation strategy [1] Polysilicon - **Price Information**: N - type dense material remained flat at 51 yuan/kg, N - type recycled material remained flat at 52.30 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material remained flat at 50.50 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon remained flat at 50.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 1.73% to 53,360 yuan/ton [1] - **Production and Supply**: Silicon material enterprises maintain a production - reduction trend, and some silicon material factories may have new capacity put into production. After offsetting, it is expected that the output will still increase slightly in October and decrease to around 120,000 tons in November [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see strategy [1] Other Product Prices - **Silicon Wafer Prices**: The price of N - type 210mm decreased by 0.62% to 1.59 yuan/piece, the price of N - type 210R remained flat at 1.27 yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 183mm remained flat at 1.26 yuan/piece [1] - **Battery Cell Prices**: The price of single - crystal PERC battery cells M10 - 182mm remained flat at 0.27 yuan/watt [1] - **Component Prices**: The prices of various single - crystal PERC components remained unchanged [1] - **Organic Silicon Prices**: The prices of DMC, 107 glue, and silicone oil remained unchanged [1]

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 铅锌日评20251124：沪铅上方承压；沪锌震荡偏弱 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/24 | | 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | | 变动 | 近期趋势 | | 元/吨 | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | | 17,075.00 | | -0.29% | | | 沪铅期现价格 | | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 17,165.00 | | -0.32% | | | 元/吨 | | 沪铅基差 | | -90.00 | | 5.00 | | | 元/吨 | | 升贴水-上海 | | 25.00 | | - | | | 美元/吨 | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 升贴水-LME 3-15 | 美元/吨 | -22.41 -85.30 | | 6.50 - | | | 价差 | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 | 元/吨 | -5.00 | | 15.00 | | | 元/吨 | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 | | ...

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - The current bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. Urea's low valuation is due to the market's consensus on the pressure of supply-demand surplus, but from a driving perspective, urea prices are supported at low levels [1]. - In terms of strategy, it is recommended to take profit on sold options and focus on long - position opportunities on dips in the medium to long term [1]. Summary by Directory Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices: UR01 closed at 1665 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.12% from the previous day; UR05 remained unchanged at 1735 yuan/ton; UR09 closed at 1739 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or - 0.29% [1]. - Domestic spot prices (small - granular): Prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton, with increases of 0.61%, 0.67%, 0.61%, and 0.62% respectively; prices in Henan and Northeast remained unchanged [1]. - Basis and spreads: The basis of Shandong spot - UR01 increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 95 yuan/ton; the spread of 01 - 05 increased by 2 yuan/ton to - 70 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream cost: Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream prices: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged; the price of melamine in Shandong increased by 7 yuan/ton or 0.14%, and remained unchanged in Jiangsu at 5200 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1661 yuan/ton, the highest was 1674 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1648 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1665 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1661 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 245423 lots [1]. Multi - Short Logic - Valuation: Although urea has rebounded recently, the rebound is limited, and the valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand [1]. - Driving factors: The new round of export quotas will relieve the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price, and low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market [1].

数据来源:SMM WIND | 碳酸锂日评20251121:谨防冲高回落 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期(日) | 2025-11-20 | 2025-11-19 | 2025-11-13 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 近月合约 | 收盘价 | 98880.00 | 99060.00 | 86400.00 | -180.00 | | | | | 99300.00 | 87660.00 | 连一合约 | 收盘价 | 98980.00 | -320.00 | 14 - | 99160.00 | 87840.00 | 收盘价 | 99300.00 | -140.00 | 连二合约 | | | | 收盘价 | -140.00 | 连三合约 | 99160.00 | 99300.00 | 87620.00 | 2 | 99300.00 | -320.00 | 收盘价 | 98980.00 | ...

镍与不锈钢日评20251121:考验支撑有效性 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-11-20 | 2025-11-19 | 2025-11-13 | 近两周走势 | 较昨日变化 | 1 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 115250.00 | 115650.00 | 118500.00 | -400.00 | 1 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 115380.00 | 115830.00 | 118930.00 | -450.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 1 | 期货连二合约 | 119100.00 | 收盘价 | 115580.00 | 115980.00 | -400.00 | | | | | 1 | 115940.00 | 119340.00 | -320.00 | 期货连三合约 | 收盘价 | 116260.00 | 1 | 115380.00 | 115650.00 | 118930.00 | -270.00 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For lead, the lead price is under pressure above. The supply shortage has improved due to better refinery operations, and the support from the raw material side may weaken. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [1]. - For zinc, the short - term zinc price may be under pressure due to weak fundamentals. In the medium - term, the tightening of the ore end in the fourth quarter will support the zinc price to some extent. It is recommended to hold previous short positions and conduct range operations, while being vigilant about the recurrence of overseas risks [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data**: On November 21, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.15% to 17,125 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the Shanghai lead futures main contract decreased by 0.17% to 17,220 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 19.43% to 37,231 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5.65% to 60,285 lots. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 264,650 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2.08% to 30,556 tons. The Shanghai - London lead price ratio decreased by 0.17% to 8.55 [1]. - **Industry News**: In October 2025, China's lead - acid battery imports were 469,800 units, a month - on - month increase of 7.55 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 9.5 percentage points; from January to October 2025, the cumulative imports were 4.4253 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 8.27 percentage points. In October 2025, the export volume was 16.615 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.23 percentage points; from January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume was 186 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.29 percentage points. On November 19, [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of $27.39/ton, and the open interest decreased by 8,802 lots to 161,114 lots [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, with the operation of primary lead fluctuating slightly. In secondary lead, the operation in Anhui increased after restart, while that in Henan decreased due to environmental protection. The demand side improved, and the operation of lead - battery enterprises was okay [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: On November 21, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots increased by 0.04% to 22,360 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the Shanghai zinc futures main contract decreased by 0.18% to 22,380 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 40.03% to 54,719 lots, and the open interest decreased by 8.43% to 61,797 lots. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 46,075 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2.19% to 73,668 tons. The Shanghai - London zinc price ratio decreased by 0.18% to 7.48 [1]. - **Industry News**: As of November 20, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 152,700 tons, a decrease of 5,200 tons compared to November 13 and a decrease of 3,900 tons compared to November 17. On November 19, [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of $152.14/ton, and the open interest decreased by 2,315 lots to 218,416 lots [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Refineries are actively purchasing domestic zinc ores, and the domestic ore shortage persists with processing fees expected to decline. The production of zinc ingots is not affected, and the demand is weak as outdoor construction in the north stops due to cold weather [1].

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251121：上方承压 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近期趋势 2025/11/21 | 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 9,350.00 | 0.00% | | 工业硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 9,075.00 | -3.35% | | 元/吨 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | 275.00 | 315.00 | | 元/千克 | N型多晶硅料 | | 51.00 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 52,450.00 | -3.98% | | 元/吨 | 基差 | 元/吨 | -1,450.00 | 2,175.00 | | 9,350.00 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 9,350.00 | 0.00% 0.00% | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | | 9,300.00 | 0.54% | | 元/吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the methanol 2601 contract will experience low - level fluctuations. The core contradiction of methanol lies in the short - term difficulty in demand growth, and the pressure of supply in reality and expectation is continuously strengthened, pushing down the spot and futures prices. For the 01 contract, it is not recommended for unilateral futures operations, but instead, it is suggested to sell out - of - the - money put options in combination with volatility. For the far - month contracts, the outlook is relatively optimistic as the supply pressure may be over - exaggerated, and a reversal in supply expectations could provide a good rebound impetus for methanol [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price and Basis - Methanol futures prices: MA01 decreased by 17 yuan/ton (-0.84%) to 2013 yuan/ton, MA05 decreased by 3 yuan/ton (-0.14%) to 2150 yuan/ton, and MA09 increased by 2 yuan/ton (0.09%) to 2206 yuan/ton [1] - Methanol spot prices: Prices in most regions decreased, such as in Shandong (-22.50 yuan/ton, -1.04%), Guangdong (-20 yuan/ton, -1.00%), and Taicang (-10 yuan/ton, -0.50%), while prices in Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei remained unchanged, and Inner Mongolia increased by 5 yuan/ton (0.26%) [1] - Coal spot prices: Ordos Q5500 increased by 5 yuan/ton (0.82%) to 615 yuan/ton, Datong Q5500 increased by 10 yuan/ton (1.45%) to 700 yuan/ton, and Yulin Q6000 increased by 7.50 yuan/ton (1.10%) to 690 yuan/ton [1] - Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] 2. Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - based methanol remained unchanged at 80.30 yuan/ton, natural - gas - based methanol decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.53%) to -1330 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream profit: Northwest MTO decreased by 40 yuan/ton (-52.49%) to 36.20 yuan/ton, East China MTO increased by 42 yuan/ton (10.81%) to -346.57 yuan/ton, acetic acid increased by 11 yuan/ton (2.28%) to 492.72 yuan/ton, MTBE increased by 20 yuan/ton (7.71%) to 279.40 yuan/ton, and formaldehyde remained unchanged at -246.00 yuan/ton [1] 3. Important Information - Domestic futures: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2030 yuan/ton, closing at 2013 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,387,439 lots and an open interest of 1,450,621 lots, showing increased volume and decreased open interest [1] - Foreign information: A 2.3 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country plans to shut down for maintenance in early December, and two other plants with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons plan to shut down at the end of this month or early December. Attention should be paid to weather and raw material supply [1] 4. Trading Strategy - For the 01 contract, sell out - of - the - money put options in combination with volatility and pay attention to long - position opportunities in far - month contracts [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, testing the support around 115,000, due to macro - level suppression, weak fundamentals, inventory pressure, and low valuation [1]. - Stainless steel is expected to show a weak oscillation as the fundamentals are loose and cost support is weak [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - **Price and Trading Volume**: On November 19, the Shanghai nickel main contract fluctuated within a range. The trading volume was 82,563 lots (-34,853), and the open interest was 85,012 lots (-14,670). LME nickel rose 0.15%. The spot market trading improved, and the basis premium narrowed [1]. - **Supply**: Nickel ore prices declined. Last week, the arrival of nickel ore at ports decreased, and the import inventory decreased. Nickel iron plants' losses deepened. In November, domestic production decreased, while Indonesian production increased. The inventory of nickel iron slurry increased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production decreased, and the loss of electrolytic nickel imports widened [1]. - **Demand**: Ternary production increased; stainless - steel plant production decreased; alloy and electroplating demand remained stable [1]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory decreased, LME inventory decreased, social inventory increased, and bonded - area inventory remained flat [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [1]. Stainless Steel Market - **Price and Trading Volume**: On November 19, the stainless - steel main contract fluctuated within a range. The trading volume was 88,679 lots (-3,721), and the open interest was 183,832 lots (+6,511). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed [1]. - **Supply**: In November, stainless - steel production decreased, and the production of the 300 - series remained basically the same [1]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand was weak [1]. - **Cost**: The price of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome declined [1]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory decreased, and the social inventory of the 300 - series last week was 623,200 tons (+17,900) [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hold short positions. Currently, the price is testing the previous low support. If it cannot break through effectively, stop profit and wait and see [1]. Nickel Ore Benchmark Price - The second - phase nickel ore benchmark price in November 2025 was $14,998.67 per thousand tons (dmt), a decrease of about $76.66 compared to the first phase. This price is the main reference for domestic iron ore trading in Indonesia, especially for nickel ores with a moisture content (MC) of 30% - 35%, with the trading term based on FOB. The validity period of this benchmark price covers all transactions in the second half of November [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The current supply and demand are both strong. The news of the resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi is inconsistent. The lithium carbonate production remains at a high level. High prices intensify the downstream wait - and - see sentiment, and the spot market trading volume is low. The power demand shows signs of peaking. The multi - empty game intensifies, and the trading channel is crowded. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate widely, and it is necessary to guard against a sharp fall after a rise. Production enterprises can conduct selling hedging at high positions [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Lithium Carbonate Futures and Spot Prices - On November 19, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 99,060 yuan/ton, 99,300 yuan/ton, 99,300 yuan/ton, and 99,300 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 5,640 yuan/ton, 5,780 yuan/ton, 5,860 yuan/ton, and 5,780 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The trading volume was 1,767,428 lots (+279,704), and the open interest was 503,132 lots (+18,775). The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 88,900 yuan/ton (+1,500), and the lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial - grade/ domestic) average price was 81,100 yuan/ton (+1,450) [1] 2. Lithium Ore and Related Product Prices - The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,086 US dollars/ton (+102), the price of lithium mica (Li2O:1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,625 yuan/ton (+50), and the price of lithium mica (Li2O:2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,575 yuan/ton (+110) [1] 3. Downstream Product Prices - The average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was - 50 yuan/ton, the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 141,150 yuan/ton (+500), the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) was 38,165 yuan/ton (+365) [1] 4. Production and Sales Data in the New Energy Vehicle Market - From November 1 - 16, the new - energy retail penetration rate of the national passenger vehicle market was 62.5%, and the new - energy wholesale penetration rate of national passenger vehicle manufacturers was 60.6%. In the first week of November, the production of pure - fuel light - duty vehicles was 331,000 units, a 3% year - on - year decrease compared with the same period last November and a 59% increase compared with the same period last month. The total production of hybrid and plug - in vehicles was 185,000 units, an 8% year - on - year decrease compared with the same period last November and a 27% increase compared with the same period last month [1] 5. Lithium Carbonate Inventory - The registered inventory was 26,611 tons (+155). The SMM lithium carbonate inventory of smelters, downstream, and others was 32,051 tons, 48,772 tons, and 2,200 tons respectively. The total inventory was 120,472 tons, a decrease compared with the previous period [1]