Industry Price Information - The middle price of naphtha in CFR is $537.00 per ton on October 17, 2025, with a 1.6% increase compared to the previous value of $545.50 [1] - The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia is $86.00 per ton on October 16, 2025, remaining unchanged from the previous value [1] - The ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in East China is $6150.00 per ton on October 17, 2025, remaining unchanged [1] - The spot price of methanol in East China is $2290.00 per ton on - date, remaining unchanged [1] - The含税 price of lignite in Inner Mongolia is $290.00 per ton on - date, remaining unchanged [1] - The settlement price of the main contract is $403.00 per ton on - date, and the closing price of the nearby contract is $407.00 per ton on October 17, 2025, with a 1.45% increase; the settlement price of the nearby contract is $408.20 per ton, with a 0.24% increase [1] - The market middle price of ethylene glycol in East China is $4120.00 per ton on - date, remaining unchanged [1] - The price difference between near - and far - month contracts is $45.00 per ton on October 17, 2025, with a 9.00% change from the previous value of $36.00 [1] - The price index of polyester fiber is $8400.00 per ton on October 17, 2025, with a 0.30% increase compared to the previous value of $8425.00 [1] - The price index of polyester staple fiber is $6285.00 per ton on October 17, 2025, with a 0.24% increase compared to the previous value of $6300.00 [1] Industry Operation Information - The operating rate of ethylene glycol from coal is 61.32% on - date, and the operating rate of ethylene glycol from oil is 69.94% [1] - The industrial chain load rate of PTA factories is 89.38% on October 17, 2025, remaining unchanged; the industrial chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 69.13% on - date, remaining unchanged [1] Financial Information - The post - tax gross profit of ethylene glycol production is $1693.23 per ton on - date [1] - The post - tax gross profit of the coal - based synthesis unit is - $37.17 per ton on October 17, 2025 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For lead, the supply - tight situation has improved, some demand was released in mid - late September, there is significant pressure for lead ingot inventory accumulation, and prices may face downward pressure. For zinc, the fundamental situation remains one of strong supply and weak demand, prices are under pressure, and there is a need to be vigilant about overseas structural risks. The trading strategy for both is to wait and see for now [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - On October 20, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 17,075 yuan/ton, down 0.15% [1] - The trading volume of the active futures contract was 39,642 lots, up 22.95%; the open interest was 40,218 lots, down 4.01% [1] - LME inventory was 250,400 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 32,082 tons, up 0.23% [1] Industry News - From October 10 to October 16, the weekly operating rate of primary lead enterprises was 66.64%, down 1.8 percentage points; that of secondary lead enterprises was 35.1%, up 1.1 percentage points; that of lead - acid battery enterprises was 74.97%, up 13.26 percentage points [1] - In Haikou, Hainan, the electric bicycles registered during the transition period have all expired, and their license plates and electronic driving licenses will be cancelled [1] Fundamental Analysis - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation of primary lead has small fluctuations. For secondary lead, the previously shut - down refineries are gradually resuming production [1] - The terminal market shows no significant improvement, the peak - season effect is not obvious, and dealers mainly digest inventory. Production enterprises produce according to sales. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday inventory preparation of downstream enterprises [1] Zinc Price and Market Data - On October 20, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 21,780 yuan/ton, down 0.32% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 21,815 yuan/ton, down 0.57% [1] - The trading volume of the active futures contract was 88,687 lots, down 3.54%; the open interest was 77,222 lots, down 11.32% [1] - LME inventory was 38,025 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 67,317 tons, down 0.22% [1] Industry News - From October 10 to October 16, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 58.05%, up 11.22 percentage points; that of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 54.63%, up 8.12 percentage points; that of zinc oxide enterprises was 57.13%, up 1.05 percentage points [1] - In August 2025, Peru's zinc concentrate production was 146,700 tons, up 17.2% month - on - month and 29.2% year - on - year. From January to August, the total production was 987,100 tons, up 16.1% year - on - year [1] Fundamental Analysis - Refineries have sufficient raw material inventory, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees decreased last week, and imported zinc ore processing fees increased. Due to the low domestic - to - foreign price ratio, refineries mainly purchase domestic ore, and domestic TC may continue to decline in October [1] - Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and production is increasing. There is no significant improvement in demand, and the zinc ingot export window may open as the Shanghai - London ratio continues to deteriorate [1]

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251020：关注供给端变动 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | 近期趋势 | 2025/10/20 | 指标 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 元/吨 | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 9,300.00 | 0.00% | 工业硅期现价格 | 8,430.00 | -2.03% | 元/吨 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | | 元/吨 | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | 870.00 | 175.00 | 51.25 | 0.00% | N型多晶硅料 | 元/千克 | | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 元/吨 | 52,340.00 | -0.45% | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | -1,090.00 | 235.00 | 基差 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 9,300.00 | 0.00% | 9,350.00 | 0.00% | 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | 元/吨 | | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 9,200.00 | ...

[原ta油ble周_r报eportdate] 2025 年 10 月 17 日 油价或有一定超跌 风险提示：俄乌局势、贸易冲突的不确定性。 [table_main] 宏源公司类模板 分析师：范智颖 从业资格号：F03117807 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0022690 研究所 Tel：010-82292099 Email：fanzhiying@swhysc.com 相关研究 《原油 2025 年展望：增产预期压制上方 空间》 《宏源原油周报 20250110：低库存下油 价对于供给的潜在减量较为敏感》 《原油周报 20250228：短期支撑有效， 减产底继续面临考验》 《宏源原油二季度报告：等待利空因素 消化，不必过度悲观》 《原油月报：转机与阴霾同在》 《原油周报 20250509：短期以反弹修复 看待》 《原油 6 月展望：6 月仍有下行压力》 《原油 2025 年 H2 展望：利空因素逐步 消化，下半年谨慎看涨》 《原油周报20250711：短期矛盾不凸显， 油价波动率回归》 《原油 8 月展望：宏观与需求支撑转弱， 8 月注意下行压力》 《原油周报 20250822：短期或延续降波 震荡行情》 《原油周 ...

黑色金属周报-双焦 受供应偏紧预期提振 煤价表现坚挺 第一部分 焦煤 第二部分 焦炭 1 焦煤 价格方面，本周焦煤现货价格偏中有升。截至10月16日，蒙5仓单1197元/吨 (+34)，山西安泽主焦 仓单1304元/吨；进口煤方面，加拿大鹿景仓单价格1125元/吨（+16）；期货方面，焦煤主力合约价格 震荡反弹，环比上一交易周反弹1.55%，JM1-5价差-82.5(+15.5）元/吨。 2025年10月17日 研究所 白净 从业资格号：F03097282； 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018999 TEL：82292661 目录 基本面方面，从供应端来看，目前仍有因井下或自身其他原因供应受限的煤矿，供应扰动仍存，整 体供应仍未恢复至前期高位。钢联数据显示，本期炼焦煤（523家）开工率87.33%，环比回升5.44个百 分点，日均精煤产量77.9万吨，环比回升2.67万吨；需求方面，铁水产量虽有回落，但绝对水平仍处高 位，且部分低库存焦企适当补库，原料需求支撑较强，叠加当下煤矿库存延续低位，市场情绪趋于乐观。 数据显示，钢联523口径精煤库存205.41万吨，环比回升9.55万吨。进口海运煤方面，印度终端刚需支 ...

季度策略报告 2025 年 10 月 17 日 多空并存，锌价区间整理 报告摘要： 逻辑分析： 分析师：祁玉蓉 | 从业资格证号：F03100031 | | --- | | 投资咨询证号：Z0021060 | | 研究所 | | 金属期货（期权）研究室 | | TEL： 010-8229 5006 | | Email： qiyurong@swhysc.com | 相关图表 相关报告： 《宏源期货有色金属年报_锌：矿端供给 偏紧，锌价重心或上移 20231215》 《宏源锌季报：原料偏紧支撑锌价，关注 上方宏观扰动 20240329》 《宏源期货有色金属半年报_锌：原料偏 紧难有较大改善，锌价下方支撑较强 20240625》 《宏源期货有色金属季报_锌：短期原料 支撑依旧，关注宏观方向变动》 《宏源期货有色金属年报_锌：原料偏紧 或将改善》 《宏源期货有色金属季报_锌：宏微观背 离，锌价重心下移 20250401》 《宏源期货有色金属半年报_锌：偏弱预 期不改，重心或下移 20250630》 期货（期权）研究报告 行情回顾： 国内现货：截至 9 月 30 日， SMM1#锌锭平均价 21,760 元/吨， 较 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - On October 16, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upwards. The current supply and demand are both strong, the upstream inventory pressure is not large, the expectation of lithium ore supply contraction is weakened, the downstream inventory preparation has reached its peak, and the demand peak may be approaching. It is expected that the lithium carbonate price will fluctuate at a low level. The situation after Jiangxi's mining end submits the production report needs to be observed. It is recommended to short at the upper edge of the short - term range [1] Summary According to Related Content Futures Market - On October 16, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 73,820 yuan/ton, 74,940 yuan/ton, 75,080 yuan/ton, and 75,080 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 1,160 yuan/ton, 2,220 yuan/ton, 2,140 yuan/ton, and 2,140 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the active contract was 268,890 lots (+43,652), and the open interest was 177,951 lots (-10,572). The basis changed from premium to discount [1] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%, domestic) remained at 73,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%, domestic) remained at 70,750 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Raw Material Market - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased to 829 US dollars/ton (+1), and the prices of various types of lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone also showed an upward trend [1] Downstream Product Market - The average prices of some downstream products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium increased, while the average prices of some products such as lithium iron phosphate remained unchanged [1] Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 30,456 tons (-2,620). The social inventory decreased, with smelters and downstream reducing inventory, while other sectors increased inventory. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 132,658 tons (-2,143) [1] Industry News - At the 5th Energy Storage Safety Seminar, the "Self - Practice Guide for Container Lithium - Battery Energy Storage Systems" was released, which is the first time the industry has transformed the consensus into systematic practical norms [1] Supply and Demand - In terms of supply, the lithium carbonate production increased last week, and the production is expected to increase in October. In terms of demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week, the production of power batteries increased last week, the production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is expected to increase in October, the production and sales growth rate of new energy vehicles slowed down in September, the 3C shipment volume was average, and the production plan of energy - storage batteries increased in October [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: On October 16, the nickel market showed a complex situation. The nickel futures had certain price changes, and the spot market had a fair trading volume with a narrowing basis premium. The supply side had stable nickel ore prices, increased arrivals last week, and rising inventories. Nickel - iron plants had deeper losses, and production schedules in October increased both in China and Indonesia. The production schedule of domestic electrolytic nickel in October also increased, and export profits decreased. The demand side saw an increase in ternary production, an increase in stainless - steel plant production schedules, and stable alloy and electroplating demand. In terms of inventory, LME inventory increased, while SHFE inventory decreased, and social inventory increased. Overall, the nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, but the valuation is low, so nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1][2]. - Stainless steel: On October 16, the stainless - steel futures had a range - bound movement, and the spot market trading was weak with a narrowing basis premium. The SHFE inventory decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory increased last week. In terms of supply, the stainless - steel production schedule in October increased, but the 300 - series production schedule decreased. The demand side had weak terminal demand. The cost side saw a decline in high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices. Overall, the fundamentals are loose, inventory is piling up, and cost support is weakening, so stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Information Nickel - related Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of SHFE nickel near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts on October 16 were 121,270 yuan/ton, 121,420 yuan/ton, 121,660 yuan/ton, and 121,900 yuan/ton respectively, showing an upward trend compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the active SHFE nickel contract was 67,146 lots (- 16,615), and the open interest was 66,228 lots (- 2,453). The LME 3 - month nickel official price was 15,150 US dollars/ton (- 60), the electronic - disk closing price was 15,230 US dollars/ton (+ 80), and the on - site closing price was 15,267 US dollars/ton (+ 73). The trading volume was 5,500 lots (- 709) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122,150 yuan/ton (- 150), the average price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 123,400 yuan/ton (- 100), and the average price of 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel) was 121,350 yuan/ton (- 100) [2]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 84 tons, the LME registered warehouse receipts were 0 tons, and the total LME nickel inventory was 250,344 tons (+ 3,588). The SMM Chinese port nickel ore total inventory was 971 (in ten thousand wet tons), the SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory was 3,100 tons, and the SMM pure nickel social inventory was 43,694 tons (+ 2,866) [2]. Stainless - steel - related Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of SHFE stainless - steel near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts on October 16 were 12,585 yuan/ton, 12,615 yuan/ton, 12,700 yuan/ton, and 12,750 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume of the active SHFE stainless - steel contract was 125,870 lots (+ 12,654), and the open interest was 201,245 lots (+ 7,755) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of 304/2B coil - trimmed (Wuxi) was 13,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), the average price of 304/No.1 coil (Wuxi) was 12,700 yuan/ton (- 50), the average price of 316L/2B coil (Wuxi) was 25,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the average price of 316L/NO.1 coil (Wuxi) was 3,750 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE stainless - steel inventory was 83,231 tons (- 776), and the 300 - series social inventory last week was 619,400 tons (+ 33,900) [2]. Industry News In Indonesia, the selling prices of domestic mining products, especially those currently prohibited from export, are still lower than the Mineral Reference Price (HPM). This situation puts mining practitioners in a dilemma, especially with limited smelter capacity in the country. The mining enterprises have weak bargaining power, and there is a mismatch between the actual transaction price and the tax - paying obligation. So far, the government has not imposed sanctions on smelters [2]. Trading Strategies - Nickel: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [2]. - Stainless steel: It is recommended to short at high prices [2].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Aluminum Industry Chain Daily Review 20251017: Uncertainty of Tariff Imposition and Expectation of Fed Rate Cut Affect Aluminum Prices [1] Group 2: Industry Price and Market Data Alumina - National average alumina price on 2025-10-16 was 2942.48 yuan/ton, down 11.84 yuan from the previous day; prices in Shanxi, Shandong, and Henan decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Guizhou decreased by 5 yuan/ton [2] - Australian alumina FOB price was 323 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - Alumina futures closing price was 2797 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; trading volume was 241,190 lots, down 37,670 lots; open interest was 336,453 lots, up 5,113 lots; inventory was 217,032 tons, down 599 tons [2] Electrolytic Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum semi-average price was 20,950 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; prices in various regions showed different changes [2] - Electrolytic aluminum futures closing price was 20,980 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; trading volume was 179,878 lots, down 16,299 lots; open interest was 194,298 lots, up 11,135 lots; inventory was 71,394 tons, down 148 tons [2] Aluminum Alloy - SMM ADC12 (primary aluminum) average price was 22,100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; prices of various types of ADC12 showed different changes [2] - Cast aluminum alloy futures closing price (active contract) was 20,540 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; trading volume was 3,638 lots, up 143 lots; open interest was 12,716 lots, down 53 lots [2] Overseas Aluminum - LME 3-month aluminum futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,576 US dollars/ton, up 44 US dollars [2] - LME aluminum futures 0 - 3 month contract spread was 27.94 US dollars/ton, down 11.16 US dollars; 3 - 15 month contract spread was -43.74 US dollars/ton, up 127.75 US dollars [2] - Shanghai-London aluminum price ratio was 7.6189, down 0.12 [2] Group 3: Core Views and Trading Strategies Alumina - Domestic alumina production is at a loss, but supply-demand is expected to be loose, making prices likely to fall rather than rise [2] - Trading strategy: mainly short when prices rise to high levels, pay attention to support levels around 2,600 - 2,800 yuan/ton and resistance levels around 3,300 - 3,600 yuan/ton (view score: -1) [2] Electrolytic Aluminum - Fed's future rate cut and end of balance sheet reduction are expected, but uncertainty about Sino-US trade tariffs remains; prices may be weak first and then strong [2] - Trading strategy: mainly long when prices fall, pay attention to support levels around 20,300 - 20,600 yuan/ton and resistance levels around 21,300 - 22,000 yuan/ton; for LME aluminum, support levels are around 2,600 - 2,700 US dollars/ton and resistance levels are around 2,900 - 3,000 US dollars/ton (view score: 0) [2] Aluminum Alloy - Fed's future rate cut and end of balance sheet reduction are expected, but uncertainty about Sino-US trade tariffs remains; prices may be weak first and then strong [2] - Trading strategy: mainly long when prices fall, or lightly short the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy on rallies, pay attention to support levels around 20,000 - 20,200 yuan/ton and resistance levels around 20,800 - 21,000 yuan/ton (view score: 0) [2]

| 贵金属日评20251017: 美国出现局部信贷危机或支撑贵金属价格 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-10-16 | 2025-10-15 | 2025-10-10 | 收盘价 | 966. 42 | 960. 34 | 901. 56 | 6.08 | 64. 86 | | | | | 成交重 | 420246.00 | 24.627.00 | 459193.00 | 434566.00 | 38, 947. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓重 | 225159.00 | 230686. 00 | 238522. 00 | -5, 527. 00 | -13, 363. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 5.862.00 | 10, 233. 00 | 80961.00 | 75099.00 | 70728.00 | 上海黄金 | ...